Friday, February 11, 2011

@IHSG: Heavy Supply vs Thin Demand = Risk > Reward

Fase Bulan:
February 7 Weekly Update - Stock Market Forecast
Fengshui: Market likely to see strength this week except for Jan 7 2011.
Financial Astrology: Expect a volatile week. Will US Markets see at least 10% decline?
Technical Analysis: US markets: Waiting for sell signals to confirm start of downtrend. Watch February 14 for possible change in trend. (The J.S.C)

IHSG Volume Bar:

IHSG Volatility:Higher volatility di saat trend penurunan = Bearish Continuation.

Thursday, February 10, 2011

Bond Market, The Most Dangerous Bubble of All

Why the Bond Market Is Undeniably a Bubble

The most obvious, telltale sign of a bubble is when asset prices are artificially driven higher by misguided government supports, subsidies, bailouts, or sheer greed and stupidity.
That was certainly the case of the housing bubble.

It was also true for some of the greatest bubbles in history — the Dutch Tulip Mania in the 17th century, the South Sea Bubble of the 18th century, the stock market bubble of the 1920s, plus many others.

And it’s definitely the case here — not only in recent years, but going back for over a decade.

In fact, since the year 2000, one of the most frequently used — and abused — policy tools of the Federal Reserve has been to cut rates and artificially bubble up bond prices.

    * The Fed cut interest rates and supported bond prices to fight the technology bust, the 9/11 aftermath, the housing bust, the mortgage meltdown, the credit crunch, and the debt crisis.
    * The Fed did it again to help avert deflation, debt defaults, and other disasters. And …
    * The Fed is still trying to do it AGAIN now, but with a big difference: Its bond-market buying binge is finally starting to backfire.

Dr. Weiss began his career in 1971 when he founded Weiss Research, dedicated to evaluating the safety of financial institutions and investments for consulting clients.  He is the publisher and contributing editor of the financial newsletter, Safe Money, known for its track record in picking major turns in interest rates, and serves as co-editor for a number of Premium Services. He is also the author of The Ultimate Safe Money Guide and The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide.

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/the-most-dangerous-bubble-of-all-42612

Why Another Financial Crash is Certain

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOn August 9, 2007, an incident took place at a bank in France that touched-off a financial crisis that that would eventually wipe out more than $30 trillion in capital and thrust the world into the deepest slump since the Great Depression. The event was recounted in a speech by Pimco's managing director Paul McCulley, at the 19th Annual Hyman Minsky Conference on the State of the U.S. and World Economies. Here's an excerpt from McCulley's speech:

"If you have to pick a day for the Minsky Moment, it was August 9. And, actually, it didn’t happen here in the United States. It happened in France, when Paribas Bank (BNP) said that it could not value the toxic mortgage assets in three of its off-balance sheet vehicles, and that, therefore, the liability holders, who thought they could get out at any time, were frozen. I remember the day like my son’s birthday. And that happens every year. Because the unraveling started on that day. In fact, it was later that month that I actually coined the term “Shadow Banking System” at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole.

“It was only my second year there. And I was in awe, and mainly listened for most of the three days. At the end....I stood up and (paraphrasing) said, ‘What’s going on is really simple. We’re having a run on the Shadow Banking System and the only question is how intensely it will self-feed as its assets and liabilities are put back onto the balance sheet of the conventional banking system.’”

BNP had been involved in credit intermediation, that is, it was exchanging bonds made up of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) for short-term loans in the repo market. It all sounds very complex, but it's no different than what banks do when they take deposits from customers and then invest the money in long-term assets. (aka--"maturity transformation") The only difference here was that these activities were not regulated, so no government agency was involved in determining the quality of the loans or making sure that the various financial institutions were sufficiently capitalized to cover potential losses. This lack of regulation turned out to have dire consequences for the global economy.

It took nearly a year from the time that subprime mortgages began to default en masse, until the secondary market (where these "toxic" bonds were traded) went into a nosedive. The problem was simple: No one knew whether the underlying mortgages were any good or not, so it became impossible to price the assets (MBS). This created, what Yale Professor Gary Gorton calls, the e coli problem. In other words, if even a small amount of meat is contaminated, millions of pounds of hamburger has to be recalled. That same rule applies to mortgage-backed securities. No one knew which MBS contained the bad loans, so the entire market froze and trillions of dollars in collateral began to fall in value.

Subprime was the spark that lit the fuse, but subprime wasn't big enough to bring down the whole financial system. That would take bigger ructions in the shadow banking system. Here's an excerpt from an article by Nomi Prins which explains how much money was involved:

"Between 2002 and early 2008, roughly $1.4 trillion worth of sub-prime loans were originated by now-fallen lenders like New Century Financial. If such loans were our only problem, the theoretical solution would have involved the government subsidizing these mortgages for the maximum cost of $1.4 trillion. However, according to Thomson Reuters, nearly $14 trillion worth of complex-securitized products were created, predominantly on top of them, precisely because leveraged funds abetted every step of their production and dispersion. Thus, at the height of federal payouts in July 2009, the government had put up $17.5 trillion to support Wall Street's pyramid Ponzi system, not $1.4 trillion." ("Shadow Banking", Nomi Prins, The American Prospect)

Shadow banking emerged so that large cash-heavy financial institutions would have a place to park their money short-term and get the best possible return. For example, let's say Intel is sitting on $25 billion in cash. It can deposit the money with a financial intermediary, such as Morgan Stanley, in exchange for collateral (aka MBS or ABS), and earn a decent return on its money. But if a problem arises and the quality of the collateral is called into question, then the banks (Morgan Stanley, in this case) are forced to take bigger and bigger haircuts which can send the system into a nosedive. That's what happened in the summer of 2007. Investors discovered that many of the subprimes were based on fraud, so billions of dollars were quickly withdrawn from money markets and commercial paper, and the Fed had to step in to keep the system from collapsing.

Regulations are put in place to see that the system runs smoothly and to protect the public from fraud. But banking without rules is more profitable, so industry leaders and lobbyists have tried to block the efforts at reform. And, they have largely succeeded. Dodd-Frank – the financial reform act -- is riddled with loopholes and doesn't really resolve the central issues of loan quality, additional capital, or risk retention. Banks are still free to issue bogus mortgages to unemployed applicants with bad credit, just as they were before the meltdown. And, they can still produce securitized debt instruments without retaining even a meager 5 per cent of the loan's value. (This issue is still being contested) Also, government agencies cannot force financial institutions to increase their capital even though a slight downturn in the market could wipe them out and cause severe damage to the rest of the system. Wall Street has prevailed on all counts and now the window for re-regulating the system has passed.

President Barack Obama understands the basic problem, but he also knows that he won't be reelected without Wall Street's help. That's why he promised to further reduce "burdensome" regulations in the Wall Street Journal just two weeks ago. His op-ed was intended to preempt the release of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission's (FCIC) report, which was expected to make recommendations for strengthening existing regulations. Obama torpedoed that effort by coming down on the side of big finance. Now, it's only a matter of time before another crash.

Here's an excerpt from a special report on shadow banking by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York:

"At the eve of the financial crisis, the volume of credit intermediated by the shadow banking system was close to $20 trillion, or nearly twice as large as the volume of credit intermediated by the traditional banking system at roughly $11 trillion. Today, the comparable figures are $16 and $13 trillion, respectively.....The weak-link nature of wholesale funding providers is not surprising when little capital is held against their asset portfolios and investors have zero tolerance for credit losses." ("Shadow Banking", Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report)

So, between $4 to $7 trillion vanished in a flash after Lehman Brothers blew up. How many millions of jobs were lost because of inadequate regulation? How much was trimmed from output, productivity, and GDP? How many people are on now food stamps or living in homeless shelters or struggling through foreclosure because unregulated financial institutions were allowed to carry out credit intermediation without government supervision or oversight?

Ironically, the New York Fed doesn't even try to deny the source of the problem; deregulation. Here's what they say in the report: "Regulatory arbitrage was the root motivation for many shadow banks to exist."

What does that mean? It means that Wall Street knows that it's easier to make money by eliminating the rules....the very rules that protect the public from the predation of avaricious speculators.

The only way to fix the system is to regulate all financial institutions that act like banks. No exceptions.

By Mike Whitney: Email: fergiewhitney@msn.com
Mike is a well respected freelance writer living in Washington state, interested in politics and economics from a libertarian perspective.
© 2011 Copyright Mike Whitney - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Getting Cheaper For Entry Before H-Day

Sesuai dengan list: DJIA / IHSG / OIL / EURUSD / GOLD

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Update Daily Investment News 08-02

US Growth, Inflation Seen Strengthening in 2011: Poll 
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41489831

Job Growth Too Low, Deficit Must Be Controlled: Bernanke
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41489883

Using Greed—and Lots of Cash—to Fight Greed
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41257939


Wednesday Look Ahead: Fed Under Fire as Markets Question Easing 
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41482371

Halftime: Are Calls for $100 Oil, Wrong?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41473190

'Fast' Traders: No Correction Around the Corner
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41475048

Cramer: Go Long Gold, Study Micron Tech
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41477681

Apple Is Most Valuable Company on Earth: Analysts
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41473211


Goldman Sachs Turns Bullish on Stocks in European Banks Bond Market Shuns
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-08/goldman-sachs-turns-bullish-on-stocks-in-european-banks-bond-market-shuns.html

JPMorgan Sees Oil `Notable Correction' as Unrest Eases

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-08/jpmorgan-says-bullish-crude-oil-investors-should-consider-taking-profit.html

Tuesday Look Ahead: Markets Respond to Tail Winds for Now
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41465643

Technician Sees S&P Pause at 1330
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41464603

Biggs Says Asia Stocks to Beat S&P 500 in Next Year
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-02/biggs-says-asia-stocks-to-beat-s-p-500-over-next-year-is-bullish-on-china.html 

Oil in Long-Term Uptrend, Regardless of Middle East: Charts
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41466774

Don't Count on Euro Strength: FX Strategist
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1783646849&play=1

Apple: Losing its Luster?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1784297841&play=1

Investors Starting to Believe That Inflation Threat is Real
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41459941

Rate Hike Would Be 'Devastating' for Pound: HSBC
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41458152

Van Agtmael Sees ‘Opportunity’ in Emerging Markets
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=agohITJr7BQ8

No Financial Armageddon Ahead, Options Traders Say
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-03/options-show-no-armageddon-ahead-for-financial-stocks-as-volatility-drops.html

Daily Forex Technicals Written by FXtechtrade
DOW JONES INDEX

Today's support: - 12048.62 and 12015.20(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 11998.13, where correction also can be. Then follows 11963.27 Be there a strong impulse, we shall see 11944.36. Continuation will bring 11923.12. Today's resistance: - 12172.46 and 12196.14(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 12224.72 where a correction may happen. Then follows 12250.30, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 12282.37. Continuation would bring 12307.50.

Gold Weekly Technical Outlook ONG Focus Written by Oil N' Gold
Comex Gold (GC)

Gold's recovery from 1309.1 is possibly still in progress with 1325.4 support intact. Nevertheless, we'd expect upside to be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1424.4 to 1309.1 at 1380.4 and bring fall resumption. Below 1325.4 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 1309.1 and below. However, sustained trading above 1380.4 fibonacci level will turn focus back to 1424.4 high instead.

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil edged higher to 92.84 but failed to sustain gain and retreated back. At this point, another rise is still in favor as long as 88.40 minor support holds. Break of 92.84 resistance will bring resumption of whole rally from 64.23 towards 100 psychological level. However, break of 88.40 will turn focus back to 85.11. Further break of 85.11 will indicate topping and should bring deeper decline.

Counting Elliott Wave Tahun 1.000 Sebelum Masehi - 2.100 Masehi


BY
Joseph M. Miller
jmiller@cytechcis.net

Daan Joubert
daanj@mweb.co.za

Marion Butler
juneb01@msn.com

Stock Market February Seasonality

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article February is an interesting month by seasonality. Typically the start of six months of underperformance for precious metals and the start of six months of outperformance for oil, it is also the second weakest month of the calendar for stocks. On this occasion I expect Gold to buck seasonal weakness, given that it has been consolidating for the last 3 months during its seasonally strong time and is now signalling a buy:

Global oil demand is back at all time high levels, and excess stock levels have been diminishing:

Source: Shortsideoflong / PFS Group
But if anything were to impede crude oil's seasonally strong period, it would be a period of dollar strength, and the dollar may be making a bounce at a key support:

There is a full moon February 18th 2011 and statistically this implies negative pressure for the stock market leading into and around that date. Returns by moon here:

Source: Dichev/Janes

In summary, a seasonally weak second half of February, weakness into and around a full moon 18th February and a potential sustained dollar bounce from here perhaps give the bears some hope of a genuine pullback from what continues to be a largely overbought status (indicators, sentiment).

Could we even see another flash crash (or worse, a "splash crash" as has been termed to imply a rapid and deep fall in many assets not just stocks) as we have arguably experienced a similar overextension in the stock indices? Well, what caused the flash crash? Geomagnetic activity is the surprising answer.

In the days before the US stock market flash crash of May 6th 2010 there was a buildup in solar activity. Then on May 5th, a pair of solar flares bathed Earth's upper atmosphere in X-rays and caused a double-wave of ionization to sweep over the Americas. There is a correlation between geomagnetic activity and depression and suicide in humans, and an increase in psychotic episodes in individuals who already suffer from unstable psychological states. Geomagnetic activity is also shown to make people more irritable and aggressive, and can affect melatonin synthesis, blood pressure, heart disease and light sensitivity.

The worst returns for stocks occur in September, October, February and March, closely correlating to peaks in geomagnetism. So keep an eye on the space weather, and forecasts for geomagnetic activity.

In summary, the second half of February could provide a pullback in stocks. However, whilst leading indicators remain positive (ECRI last week 3.5% this week 3.7%), US earnings season continues to deliver a beat rate close to 70 (currently around 68%), bull market sustainability index remains positive up to one year out, stocks remain cheap relative to bonds and QE/Pomo continues, I continue to view any significant pullback as a buying opportunity.

John Hampson, UK / Self-taught full-time trading at the global macro level / Future Studies. www.amalgamator.co.uk / Forecasting By Amalgamation / Site launch 1st Feb 2011

@IHSG: Volume Bar & EW Menunjukkan Potensi Penurunan Terbatas Untuk Rally

IHSG Volume Bar: well supported oleh pola inverted H&S, channel uptrend & pola akumulasi jangka pendek, mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas dan berpeluang rally menuju 3.550/3.630.
IHSG EW Daily Alternative 2:Potensi penurunan terbatas berkat pola mini uptrend channel, akumulasi jangka pendek, inverted head & shoulder. Buy on weakness untuk proses c/B.
Courtesy of globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com

Monday, February 7, 2011

EW: Stock Market SPX Closed Above Cycle Top Resistance

The FDIC Failed Bank List announced three new bank closures this week.  The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation seized the American Trust Bank, based in Roswell, Ga., with $238.2 million in assets and $222.2 million in deposits; the North Georgia Bank of Watkinsville, Ga., with $153.2 million in assets and $139.7 million in deposits; and the Chicago-based Community First Bank, with $51.1 million in assets and $49.5 million in deposits.

Commodity Whack-A-Mole

 (ZeroHedge)  Ok, someone needs to step in here before people get hurt... Er, more. The chart below is not of some biotech strategically bought by various CT hedge funds having just announced a successful obesity Phase 3 trial. It is corn: one of the most widely consumed commodities in the world. And while corn appears to be today's limit up commodity, elsewhere cotton has just limited down as a continuation of the recent ICE plundering, courtesy of the exchange's margin hike; rice, after touching on highs, has decided to drop aggresively, as have cocoa (never mind the Ivory Coast government vacuum) and coffee. This is the kind of environment in which companies that do not have commodity price hedges can go bankrupt in a span of months.

Drop in Jobless Rate May Not Deter Fed From Carrying Out Stimulus Program
(Bloomberg)  The surprising drop in the U.S. jobless rate to the lowest level in 21 months probably won’t deter Federal Reserve policy makers from carrying out their program to pump $600 billion into the economy, economists said.

VIX retraced below its 10-week moving average.

--The VIX declined below its 10-week moving average in what appears to be a deep retracement.  The pattern since the May Flash Crash has been the Broadening Wedge, which is a continuation pattern.  Weekly Stochastics indicate that momentum may be building for a bullish breakout in the VIX.  

(Dow Jones)--Just as there's no perfect hedge, Friday's market gyrations were a reminder that there's no perfect way to trade the stock market's "fear index" either. As scenes of unrest in Egypt and a Nasdaq glitch sent stocks lower, traders dove into complex new exchange-traded notes tied to the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, which jumped 24%. Volume in 16 such notes leapt to roughly $1.2 billion Friday, more than twice the 20-day average around $500 million, data collected by VelocityShares showed

SPX closed above Cycle Top Resistance.
SPX closed below weekly Cycle Top Resistance at 1328.61.  It appears that the Master Cycle from July 1 has not rolled over as evidenced by the new high made this week.   Last week’s rally formed point five of an Orthodox Broadening Top.  This is the same pattern that formed just before the Flash Crash in May.  The Cycle Bottom Support which called for a drop to 1025 last April is now calling for a drop below 1000 today.  

Gold caught inside its Diagonal.
-- Gold is now caught inside its weekly Diagonal Formation.  It rebounded from its Trading Cycle low which arrived on January 28th and may be finished with its retracement.  An alternate arrangement may be a retest of its 10-week moving average at 1373.01.  The next probable downside target is mid-Cycle support at 1023.00.


www.beyondneanderthal.com   

$WTIC ready to violate its 10-week moving average.
-- $WTIC still remains above its 10-week moving average at 89.75, but just barely.  The Commodities Index ($CRB) achieved a Master Cycle low on January 26 and may seek a deeper low on or around February 7.  This may set off a broad-based decline to the lower trendline of the Orthodox Broadening Formation. Crude oil fell after a government report showed that the U.S. added fewer jobs in January than economists forecast, bolstering concern that fuel demand will slip. Today’s jobless numbers showed many fewer people got jobs than expected and that many others have simply given up looking for work, which raises concerns about U.S. consumer demand. We already are looking at weak demand and very high stockpiles.

The Shanghai Index trades at mid-Cycle Support.
--The Shanghai Index remains closed for its Chinese Lunar New Year.  $SSEC appears poised to leap above its 10-week moving average, giving it a buy signal from a Master Cycle low.

$USD declines to 78.5% retracement, currency tensions mounting.
-- $USD bounced from a Primary Cycle low this week.  While the $USD has been made a 78.5% retracement of its rally from November 5, the Euro retracement had extended to a little more than the 61.8% level of its decline.

Regards, Tony
Traders alert:
  The Practical Investor is currently offering the daily Inner Circle Newsletter to new subscribers.  Contact us at tpi@thepracticalinvestor.com for a free sample newsletter and subscription information.

The Financial Crisis of 2015

An interesting paper by international management consulting firm Oliver Wyman, on the potential for the next Financial Crisis to play out around 2015.  This is not necessarily a 'prediction' per se, but an outline of the next black swan.  At the heart of it is once more.... central bankers, especially those of an American kind.   I am 100% sure the central bankers will cause another crisis, but what year and via what instruments is a guess.

I proposed emerging markets and/or commodities in 2009 as the most likely outcome (the next crisis is never the same as the last crisis) and this is the same path Oliver Wyman also utilizes.   Frankly the global political upheaval of rising food prices (not to mention energy) has me finding it hard to believe the central bankers can just print to their heart contents for years more on end, so I am finding it difficult to figure how the end game looks.

Then again The Bernank says global food inflation is not due to his acts, only the ever rising stock market can he take credit for.  Either way, I continue to believe Bernanke today is Greenspan 1998 - a semi deity ("the Maestro") who can control the world and save us from everything; but Bernanke 2018 will be seen in the same light as Greenspan 2008.

    * The sub-prime crisis of 2007 will not be the last financial sector crisis. Even during the relative calm of the last 25 years, we witnessed the property crises of the early 90s, the Asia currency crisis, the LTCM/ Russia crisis and a number of other smaller emerging markets-led financial crises. We are due another crisis soon.
    * Financial services executives and regulators have worked hard to design a safer and more stable financial system, but we will not know whether they have succeeded until it is tested by the next crisis. The first aim of our 2015 crisis scenario is to stress test the design of the new financial system, to consider how well it would stand up to this type of adverse scenario.
    * The broader aim of the report is to encourage readers to think about the future financial system using several scenarios rather than basing decisions on a single predicted course of events. 
    * Our scenario is not a prediction. Our aim in describing it is to show that current efforts underway to create a better system should not be taken as an assurance that the system is now safe from future crises. Other plausible scenarios may show the same thing, though potentially with different strategic implications. We encourage you to use several such adverse scenarios in your planning, tailoring them to the risks facing your institution.
    * The financial crisis of 2008 shook politicians, bankers, regulators, commentators and ordinary citizens out of the complacency created by the 25 year “great moderation”. Yet, for all the rhetoric around a new financial order, and all the improvements made, many of the old risks remain. The basic regulatory framework – of bank debtor guarantees and regulatory bank capital and liquidity minima (that is, of risk subsidies and compensatory risk taxes) – has been maintained with tweaked parameters. And, within this system, bank shareholders, bondholders and executives still have incentives that might herd them towards excessive risk taking.

The full pdf is here (http://www.oliverwyman.com/ow/pdf_files/OW_EN_FS_Publ_2011_State_of_Financial_Services_2011_US_Web.pdf), but the The Atlantic does a nice job describing the stress case as outlined in the pdf.  Again, this is but one scenario...

    *  The world is slowly inflating a commodities bubble that could burst just like the housing market in 2008, creating an even more devastating worldwide recession.
    * Let's start in 2011. The world is in a three-speed recovery, with Europe at the bottom, the U.S. in the middle, and Asia growing between 6 and 10 percent. If you're an investment bank looking for high returns, where do you look? The fastest gains are in the hottest markets, and the hottest markets are in the developing world. In particular, commodities investments (gold, silver, platinum, rare earth metals, oil) have soaked up lots of excess global money supply and central banks have dropped their interest rates. 
    * In the U.S. housing bubble, over-valued homes encouraged families to go on a debt-fueled spending spree In the commodities run-up, emerging economies are on their own spending sprees, building up their cities and digging out more valuable metals. But just as the housing bubble was powered by a false faith that home prices would rise forever, it's wrong to believe that commodity prices have no ceiling due to insatiable demand from China, India and other developing countries.
    * The year is 2013. Western banks are investing heavily in new growth markets. Emerging economies are raking in investments to finance huge development projects and live outside their means (Real stat: in Brazil, public debt rose 13 percent in 2010 and household debt-to-income doubled in five years). Both sides are betting on the continued rise of commodity prices.
    * Now look at China, the world's largest commodities buyer. Prices for Chinese goods continue to rise dramatically in 2013 and the country's cheap currency isn't appreciating fast enough to offset rising food and metal prices. To fight back rampant inflation, China hikes up its interest rates and accelerates its currency appreciation. This has two side-effects. First, exports fall hurting the economy. Second, home values stop rising, hurting middle class Chinese families.
    * The Chinese economy, once an unstoppable commodity consumer, slows down. Investors freak out. Commodity prices collapse and the countries that export them (Russia, Brazil, Latin America, Africa) find themselves in the same position as an over-leveraged home owner in 2008. They've made promises based on the rising price of an asset whose price is suddenly collapsing. Everybody pulls back at once. It's another global recession.
    * The first wave hits international banks with direct exposure to Latin American development projects. The second wave hits U.S. insurers with indirect exposures through investments in infrastructure funds and bank debt.
    * The third wave hits Western governments. A price crash in commodities along with a banking crisis could move developed countries dangerously close to deflation. Governments would respond the same way they responded to the Great Recession: by spending lots of money. But do we have the capacity to absorb another round of deficit spending? It's not clear.

To review how Great-Great Recession 2015 would affect the world:
   1. The commodity producers --  Latin America, Africa, Russia, Canada and Australia -- will have seen the price of their chief asset plummet overnight.
   2. China, the world's largest commodity importer, will have unwittingly created its own painful squeeze by getting trapped between inflation and an undervalued currency.
   3. The developed world economies will have seen another round of foolish betting require yet another round of government bailiouts.

--------------------------------------

But in the meantime we party like it's 1999!
By Trader Mark
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com

Sunday, February 6, 2011

Perfomance IHSG Movers / Regional Asia / Global Index

Indeks Global: Penutupan Eropa Market (half session) & US market (03/02)
Indeks Asia

Market Profile & EW: IHSG in A Weak Accumulation Pattern in Bull Trend Med-Term

IHSG: Uptrend channel + Inverted Head & Shoulder menopang aksi akumulasi jangka pendek, untuk menembus area 3.510-3.630, jika tembus target area weak resist 3.690-3.730. Initial Balance > Point of Control + Low Volatility.
@ Globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
EW IHSG  4-Jam: