Indonesia approves permits for 29 firms to export coal, metals
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41658824
Friday Look Ahead: G20, Central Banker Speak in Focus Ahead of Long Weekend
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41654583
Equities in a Multi-Year Bull Run; Buy US Stocks: Expert
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41638335
Soros’ Favorite Stocks May Rise Up to 40%
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41648821
What Will Kill a Bull Market? Good News
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41647691
Crude Prices: Is the Brent-WTI Spread Unwinding?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41652421
High Net Worth Investors Listen Up!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1801303720&play=1
U.K. Pound May Rise to $1.63, Mizuho Says: Technical Analysis
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-17/pound-could-advance-to-1-63-on-breakout-mizuho-says-technical-analysis.html
Dollar to Reach Six-Week Low on Triangle: Technical Analysis
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-18/dollar-may-drop-to-six-week-low-versus-yen-on-triangle-technical-analysis.html
Worst of food inflation may have passed: economist
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/worst-of-food-inflation-in-asia-may-be-over-2011-02-17?dist=markets
Friday, February 18, 2011
Jesse Livermore's Trading System
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA butcher never chops with a blunt knife, yet it is common to see a trader operates with an unsound trading system. The fastest way to get a winning system is to steal one from a successful trader, and for that matter, there is no better candidate than legendary trader Jesse Livermore, because his method was very simple: it contained only three components, which are respectively known as the reversal pivotal point, the continuation pivotal point, and the symptoms of weakness. Their application would be explored in this article.
1. Reversal Pivotal Points
The first component of Livermore’s system is the reversal pivotal point, which is defined by Livermore as “the perfect psychological time at the beginning of a new move, representing a major change in the basic trend.” However, confirming a market turn in real time is not easy, e.g. when there is a rally in a long bear market, how can you tell whether it is just temporary, or the bull market has returned? You can use the following four steps to justify:
1. The bear market rally does not get retraced below its starting point. 2. Within two weeks after the initial rally, an even bigger rally follows. 3. The volume of this subsequent rally is significantly higher than previous days. 4. This subsequent rally usually breaks the trend line of the previous bear market.
This monumental subsequent rally is exactly what Livermore called a reversal pivotal point, because it marks the return of large investors into the market, and although the market often corrects on furious volume immediately afterwards, it usually rebounds soon and begins a new trend.
2. Continuation Pivotal Points
The second component of Livermore’s system is the continuation pivotal point, which concerns the time to enter the market. While a reversal pivotal point marks a trend reversal, a continuation pivotal point confirms that the trend continues.
According to technical analyst R. N. Elliott, a trend is composed of impulsions and corrections: whereas impulsions are the parts in which the price drifts rapidly with the trend, corrections are the consolidation parts in which stocks are accumulated before the market takes off again, and this breakout from consolidation is known as the continuation pivotal point, where a trader should get in and follow the trend.
Stock expert William O’Neil believed that buying at continuation pivotal points is one of the greatest secrets in trading stocks, because the price seldom falls for more than 10% after a genuine breakout. Therefore, the primary job of a trader is to recognize a genuine breakout from consolidation, to identify which O’Neil listed out three clues to look for:
Clue 1: A Sound Pattern:
The consolidation is usually in the form of a sound chart pattern. The most common pattern, according to O’Neil, is the cup-and-handle formation, where the price forms a concave shape of a bowl (the “cup”) with a small pullback at the end (the “handle”). Patterns formed within seven weeks are usually weak and should be considered carefully. Limited by the size of this article, please refer to How to Make Money in Stocks by William O’Neil for more discussion on chart patterns.
Clue 2: A Tight Accumulation:
A good breakout depends on the “tightness” of the accumulation (e.g. the “handle” part of a cup-and-handle). If the consolidation has a narrow day-to-day change relative to the weekly range, it is then considered more reliable than a “wide and loose” one.
Clue 3: A High Volume upon Breakout:
Most importantly, just as for a reversal pivotal point, a true breakout at a continuation pivotal point is usually accompanied with a higher volume than the previous few days.
3. Symptoms of Weaknesses
The last part of Livermore’s system is called the symptoms of weakness, which concerns the question of when to exit. As Baron Rothschild had allegedly said, “I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon.” The best time to sell is upon the signals of trend exhaustion when the following symptoms of weakness appeared in the market:
Symptom 1: Head-and-Shoulders
William O’Neil pointed out that head-and-shoulders are the most common pattern in a topping market, where the peak of the market (the “head”) is surrounded by two lower peaks (the “shoulders”) on both the left-hand and right-hand side respectively, especially when the right shoulder is lower than the left shoulder. Sometimes, the market will perform what is known as a “head test” when the price rebounds immediately after the right shoulder is formed, and tests the “head” level of the pattern before falling again. Examples of the head-and-shoulders pattern are the Dow in August 1987 (without head test) and in July 1976 (with head test).
Symptom 2: Period of frequent distribution days.
The distribution day is a highly accurate weakness signal, especially if preceded by a successful rally. A distribution day is where the large investors unload a part of their shares under the perception that the market is topping out. A distribution day is best characterized with a wide high-to-low spread and a heavy volume, but it never closes too much higher than the previous day. In addition, it usually has a small open-to-close difference, a shape known as the “doji” by candlestick experts. When you see a lot of these days in a period of modest momentum, it usually means that the trend is probably over.
Symptom 3: Failed rallies.
The last sign of a topping out market is that, after an overall head is formed, the subsequent rallies often end with a weak momentum, as demonstrated by a diminishing increase in price accompanied by a decreasing volume, and each day the close is usually away from the intraday high. This is a sign that the large investors are not very keen in buying the pullbacks.
Summary
Over his legendary career, Livermore obtained two important insights in trading: firstly, he often lost when he entered a position before a pivotal point was formed, and secondly, the big money could only be made by capturing big trends, thus he developed the discipline to avoid any personal opinion until a pivotal point appeared, as well as to hold onto his positions until he was shown the symptoms of weakness. In short, this is how Livermore traded:
1. Trend confirmation: he never trade against the trend as indicated by the reversal pivotal points. 2. Careful entry: He only entered the market when a sound breakout appears. 3. Let the winners ride: He held onto his positions until the symptoms of weakness appeared.
And you are very unlikely to be doomed in trading if you follow these rules.
Selfgrowth Expert Page: http://www.selfgrowth.com/experts/victor-chan_wai-to
Victor Chan Wai-To is a currency trader based in Hong Kong.
1. Reversal Pivotal Points
The first component of Livermore’s system is the reversal pivotal point, which is defined by Livermore as “the perfect psychological time at the beginning of a new move, representing a major change in the basic trend.” However, confirming a market turn in real time is not easy, e.g. when there is a rally in a long bear market, how can you tell whether it is just temporary, or the bull market has returned? You can use the following four steps to justify:
1. The bear market rally does not get retraced below its starting point. 2. Within two weeks after the initial rally, an even bigger rally follows. 3. The volume of this subsequent rally is significantly higher than previous days. 4. This subsequent rally usually breaks the trend line of the previous bear market.
This monumental subsequent rally is exactly what Livermore called a reversal pivotal point, because it marks the return of large investors into the market, and although the market often corrects on furious volume immediately afterwards, it usually rebounds soon and begins a new trend.
2. Continuation Pivotal Points
The second component of Livermore’s system is the continuation pivotal point, which concerns the time to enter the market. While a reversal pivotal point marks a trend reversal, a continuation pivotal point confirms that the trend continues.
According to technical analyst R. N. Elliott, a trend is composed of impulsions and corrections: whereas impulsions are the parts in which the price drifts rapidly with the trend, corrections are the consolidation parts in which stocks are accumulated before the market takes off again, and this breakout from consolidation is known as the continuation pivotal point, where a trader should get in and follow the trend.
Stock expert William O’Neil believed that buying at continuation pivotal points is one of the greatest secrets in trading stocks, because the price seldom falls for more than 10% after a genuine breakout. Therefore, the primary job of a trader is to recognize a genuine breakout from consolidation, to identify which O’Neil listed out three clues to look for:
Clue 1: A Sound Pattern:
The consolidation is usually in the form of a sound chart pattern. The most common pattern, according to O’Neil, is the cup-and-handle formation, where the price forms a concave shape of a bowl (the “cup”) with a small pullback at the end (the “handle”). Patterns formed within seven weeks are usually weak and should be considered carefully. Limited by the size of this article, please refer to How to Make Money in Stocks by William O’Neil for more discussion on chart patterns.
Clue 2: A Tight Accumulation:
A good breakout depends on the “tightness” of the accumulation (e.g. the “handle” part of a cup-and-handle). If the consolidation has a narrow day-to-day change relative to the weekly range, it is then considered more reliable than a “wide and loose” one.
Clue 3: A High Volume upon Breakout:
Most importantly, just as for a reversal pivotal point, a true breakout at a continuation pivotal point is usually accompanied with a higher volume than the previous few days.
3. Symptoms of Weaknesses
The last part of Livermore’s system is called the symptoms of weakness, which concerns the question of when to exit. As Baron Rothschild had allegedly said, “I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon.” The best time to sell is upon the signals of trend exhaustion when the following symptoms of weakness appeared in the market:
Symptom 1: Head-and-Shoulders
William O’Neil pointed out that head-and-shoulders are the most common pattern in a topping market, where the peak of the market (the “head”) is surrounded by two lower peaks (the “shoulders”) on both the left-hand and right-hand side respectively, especially when the right shoulder is lower than the left shoulder. Sometimes, the market will perform what is known as a “head test” when the price rebounds immediately after the right shoulder is formed, and tests the “head” level of the pattern before falling again. Examples of the head-and-shoulders pattern are the Dow in August 1987 (without head test) and in July 1976 (with head test).
Symptom 2: Period of frequent distribution days.
The distribution day is a highly accurate weakness signal, especially if preceded by a successful rally. A distribution day is where the large investors unload a part of their shares under the perception that the market is topping out. A distribution day is best characterized with a wide high-to-low spread and a heavy volume, but it never closes too much higher than the previous day. In addition, it usually has a small open-to-close difference, a shape known as the “doji” by candlestick experts. When you see a lot of these days in a period of modest momentum, it usually means that the trend is probably over.
Symptom 3: Failed rallies.
The last sign of a topping out market is that, after an overall head is formed, the subsequent rallies often end with a weak momentum, as demonstrated by a diminishing increase in price accompanied by a decreasing volume, and each day the close is usually away from the intraday high. This is a sign that the large investors are not very keen in buying the pullbacks.
Summary
Over his legendary career, Livermore obtained two important insights in trading: firstly, he often lost when he entered a position before a pivotal point was formed, and secondly, the big money could only be made by capturing big trends, thus he developed the discipline to avoid any personal opinion until a pivotal point appeared, as well as to hold onto his positions until he was shown the symptoms of weakness. In short, this is how Livermore traded:
1. Trend confirmation: he never trade against the trend as indicated by the reversal pivotal points. 2. Careful entry: He only entered the market when a sound breakout appears. 3. Let the winners ride: He held onto his positions until the symptoms of weakness appeared.
And you are very unlikely to be doomed in trading if you follow these rules.
Selfgrowth Expert Page: http://www.selfgrowth.com/experts/victor-chan_wai-to
Victor Chan Wai-To is a currency trader based in Hong Kong.
@IHSG: Weak Bullish Continuation vs @DJIA: Extend Bullish
Thursday, February 17, 2011
"Stocks pullback imminent, cyclical bull to continue"
Near Term Analysis:
Let's start by looking longer term.
Cyclical stocks bulls historically end when/with:
Inflation over 4%
10 year treasury yields over 6%
Stock market topping process accompanied by weakening breadth
Yield curve abnormal
Overtightening of interest rates
Whilst these are only guidelines, it should be noted that in Western markets we have some way to go on all, so we might not expect the cyclical stocks bull to end any time soon. Supporting this, as detailed in my post of February 11th, there are multiple tailwinds for stocks:
QE/Pomo until June
Leading indicators are positive and stable
Money supply growing, money velocity stable
Financial conditions index positive
Latest earnings season has delivered a beat rate in excess of the last 3 quarters
Stocks are cheap relative to bonds historically
Stocks are in the presidential cycle sweetspot in 2011, particularly the first 6 months
One thing has changed since that post, which is the bull market sustainability index reading, which now points to a pullback, and I'll come on to that later. So, the environment for stocks is currently positive and we have some tools to measure when the cyclical bull is approaching conclusion, so let's turn to forecasting when that conclusion might be.
The strength of this cyclical bull off the March 2009 low historically suggests this will be a prolonged bull of large returns. Laszlo Brinyi's analysis suggests that it should last around 4.5 years, taking us to 2013. The table below shows how such bull markets typically make 4 phases or quartiles (reluctance, digestion, acceptance, exuberance) and that our first phase from March 2009 through to April 2010 was amongst the strongest of any in history. The second phase typically produces much more mediocre returns than the first and should last roughly to June 2011. This phase has so far seen an increase of around 9% so it may be that consolidation lies ahead rather than a continued run up.
John Hampson, UK
Financial Markets Trading At The Global Macro Level
Future Studies
Forecasting By Amalgamation: Bringing Together All Disciplines That Influence Our Future
Let's start by looking longer term.
Cyclical stocks bulls historically end when/with:
Inflation over 4%
10 year treasury yields over 6%
Stock market topping process accompanied by weakening breadth
Yield curve abnormal
Overtightening of interest rates
Whilst these are only guidelines, it should be noted that in Western markets we have some way to go on all, so we might not expect the cyclical stocks bull to end any time soon. Supporting this, as detailed in my post of February 11th, there are multiple tailwinds for stocks:
QE/Pomo until June
Leading indicators are positive and stable
Money supply growing, money velocity stable
Financial conditions index positive
Latest earnings season has delivered a beat rate in excess of the last 3 quarters
Stocks are cheap relative to bonds historically
Stocks are in the presidential cycle sweetspot in 2011, particularly the first 6 months
One thing has changed since that post, which is the bull market sustainability index reading, which now points to a pullback, and I'll come on to that later. So, the environment for stocks is currently positive and we have some tools to measure when the cyclical bull is approaching conclusion, so let's turn to forecasting when that conclusion might be.
The strength of this cyclical bull off the March 2009 low historically suggests this will be a prolonged bull of large returns. Laszlo Brinyi's analysis suggests that it should last around 4.5 years, taking us to 2013. The table below shows how such bull markets typically make 4 phases or quartiles (reluctance, digestion, acceptance, exuberance) and that our first phase from March 2009 through to April 2010 was amongst the strongest of any in history. The second phase typically produces much more mediocre returns than the first and should last roughly to June 2011. This phase has so far seen an increase of around 9% so it may be that consolidation lies ahead rather than a continued run up.
John Hampson, UK
Financial Markets Trading At The Global Macro Level
Future Studies
Forecasting By Amalgamation: Bringing Together All Disciplines That Influence Our Future
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Update Daily Investment News 16-02
Forex and Dow Jones Recommended Levels
Written by FXtechtrade
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.3450(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3429, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3408. Break of the latter would result in 1.3388. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3354. Continuation will give 1.3318. Today's resistance: - 1.3540, 1,3581, 1.3603 and 1.3637(main). Break would give 1.3667, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.3686. Break of the latter would result in 1.3728. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.3749. Continuation will give 1.3770
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 83.40, 82.91 and 82.57(main). Break would bring 82.32, where correction is possible. Then 82.03, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 81.88. If a strong impulse, we would see 81.65. Continuation would give 81.43 and 81.22.Today's resistance: - 83.94(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 84.13, where also a correction may be. Then 84.34. If a strong impulse, we would see 84.48. Continuation will give 84.60.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 12195.07 and 12158.30(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 12135.94, where correction also can be. Then follows 12122.73. Be there a strong impulse, we shall see 12087.36. Continuation will bring 12048.62 and 12015.20.Today's resistance: - 12251.30, 12287.81, 12307.50 and 12334.22(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 12366.70, where a correction may happen. Then follows 12382.25, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 12403.13. Continuation would bring 12424.19.
Written by Admiral Markets
The Daily Wave AnalysisCurrency pair EUR/USD
By the present moment descending movement of euro which has begun in the beginning of February, has almost generated the Zigzag which, within the limits of alternative, can be the correctional wave [ii] of C. If the assumption is true, after its terminations, it is possible to expect the new wave of growth of pair as the impulse [iii] of C
Currency pair GBP/USD.
Within the limits of the alternative scenario, ascending movement which is formed from the beginning of new year, can be the impulse [i] waves With of of (Y) of [X]. If the assumption is true, by the present moment the correctional wave [ii] of C was generated and, hence, it is possible to expect growth of the cable as the impulse [iii] of C. At the same time, considering modest enough depth and duration of correction, there are all bases to assume, that at the given stage, the part of the wave [ii] of C is generated only.\
Currency pair USD/JPY.
Probably, within the limits of the presented alternative, the impulse (ะก) of [3] in which frameworks development of the Double Three 4 of (C) resembles by the end is formed. If the prospective wave 4 of (C) and remains the Double Three after its terminations, it is possible to expect the beginning of falling of the price as the impulse or the Diagonal Triangle 5 of (C) of [3].
Currency pair USD/CHF
It is not excluded, that the impulse or the Diagonal Triangle With of (Y) of [B] is already formed. Probably within the limits of its development, by the given moment of the complete the correctional wave [ii] of C. If the assumption is true, it is possible to expect falling of US dollar as the wave [iii] of C.
Gold Will Correct, Then Hit $1,500 by Year-End: Strategist
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41614678
Wednesday Look Ahead: Investors Itching for a Pull Back May be Disappointed
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41610988
JPMorgan May Climb 25%, Boost Dividend
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41603537
Europe Stocks Set To Open Higher on Earnings Hope
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41600742
Euro May Weaken Versus Dollar on `Head and Shoulders': Technical Analysis
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-15/euro-may-weaken-versus-dollar-on-head-and-shoulders-technical-analysis.html
Oil Gains First Day in Four as Drop in U.S. Supply Signals Demand Recovery
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-15/oil-trades-near-11-week-low-in-n-y-on-forecasts-u-s-fuel-supply-to-rise.html
The Question That Could Spark a Crash
http://dailytradealert.com/2011/02/13/the-question-that-could-spark-a-crash/
Gold May Weaken on Speculation One-Month High to Deter Buyers
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-16/gold-may-weaken-on-speculation-advance-to-one-month-high-to-deter-buyers.html
Written by FXtechtrade
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.3450(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3429, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3408. Break of the latter would result in 1.3388. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3354. Continuation will give 1.3318. Today's resistance: - 1.3540, 1,3581, 1.3603 and 1.3637(main). Break would give 1.3667, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.3686. Break of the latter would result in 1.3728. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.3749. Continuation will give 1.3770
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 83.40, 82.91 and 82.57(main). Break would bring 82.32, where correction is possible. Then 82.03, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 81.88. If a strong impulse, we would see 81.65. Continuation would give 81.43 and 81.22.Today's resistance: - 83.94(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 84.13, where also a correction may be. Then 84.34. If a strong impulse, we would see 84.48. Continuation will give 84.60.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 12195.07 and 12158.30(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 12135.94, where correction also can be. Then follows 12122.73. Be there a strong impulse, we shall see 12087.36. Continuation will bring 12048.62 and 12015.20.Today's resistance: - 12251.30, 12287.81, 12307.50 and 12334.22(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 12366.70, where a correction may happen. Then follows 12382.25, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 12403.13. Continuation would bring 12424.19.
Written by Admiral Markets
The Daily Wave AnalysisCurrency pair EUR/USD
By the present moment descending movement of euro which has begun in the beginning of February, has almost generated the Zigzag which, within the limits of alternative, can be the correctional wave [ii] of C. If the assumption is true, after its terminations, it is possible to expect the new wave of growth of pair as the impulse [iii] of C
Currency pair GBP/USD.
Within the limits of the alternative scenario, ascending movement which is formed from the beginning of new year, can be the impulse [i] waves With of of (Y) of [X]. If the assumption is true, by the present moment the correctional wave [ii] of C was generated and, hence, it is possible to expect growth of the cable as the impulse [iii] of C. At the same time, considering modest enough depth and duration of correction, there are all bases to assume, that at the given stage, the part of the wave [ii] of C is generated only.\
Currency pair USD/JPY.
Probably, within the limits of the presented alternative, the impulse (ะก) of [3] in which frameworks development of the Double Three 4 of (C) resembles by the end is formed. If the prospective wave 4 of (C) and remains the Double Three after its terminations, it is possible to expect the beginning of falling of the price as the impulse or the Diagonal Triangle 5 of (C) of [3].
Currency pair USD/CHF
It is not excluded, that the impulse or the Diagonal Triangle With of (Y) of [B] is already formed. Probably within the limits of its development, by the given moment of the complete the correctional wave [ii] of C. If the assumption is true, it is possible to expect falling of US dollar as the wave [iii] of C.
Gold Will Correct, Then Hit $1,500 by Year-End: Strategist
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41614678
Wednesday Look Ahead: Investors Itching for a Pull Back May be Disappointed
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41610988
JPMorgan May Climb 25%, Boost Dividend
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41603537
Europe Stocks Set To Open Higher on Earnings Hope
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41600742
Euro May Weaken Versus Dollar on `Head and Shoulders': Technical Analysis
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-15/euro-may-weaken-versus-dollar-on-head-and-shoulders-technical-analysis.html
Oil Gains First Day in Four as Drop in U.S. Supply Signals Demand Recovery
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-15/oil-trades-near-11-week-low-in-n-y-on-forecasts-u-s-fuel-supply-to-rise.html
The Question That Could Spark a Crash
http://dailytradealert.com/2011/02/13/the-question-that-could-spark-a-crash/
Gold May Weaken on Speculation One-Month High to Deter Buyers
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-16/gold-may-weaken-on-speculation-advance-to-one-month-high-to-deter-buyers.html
Whatever Happens in Egypt, Oil Will Hit $300 by 2020
The oil market breathed a small sigh of relief Friday after Hosni Mubarak resigned as president of Egypt, sending prices to a 10-week low. But Charles T. Maxwell, an analyst who's been toiling in the energy business since 1957, all but shrugged off the toppling of the dictator. He's sticking with a bold prediction: Prices will climb to $300 a barrel in 2020, or about $225 in today's dollars. The world simply won't have enough oil to meet demand, he says. Barron's interviewed Maxwell, 79 years old, by telephone from the Greenwich, Conn., offices of Weeden & Co.
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970204098404576130370708044708.html?mod=BOL_hpp_mag#articleTabs_panel_article%3D1
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970204098404576130370708044708.html?mod=BOL_hpp_mag#articleTabs_panel_article%3D1
Stock Market Bears Turning Bullish, Warning Signal for Crisis 2011
After two years of issuing "sell" ratings on equities and making bearish pronouncements on the year-ahead economic outlook, Wall Street has finally turned bullish again. Recent analyst polls reveal the consensus outlook for 2011 is for another year of double-digit stock market gains. Even stalwart bears are starting to sound a more optimistic note on the prospects for continued economic recovery in 2011 and beyond.
One analyst who doesn't share this newfound optimism is far from the conventional Wall Street type. He correctly predicted the 2008 credit crash and also turned bullish in March 2009 following the crisis low. He has made a career of going against the consensus and he's once again staking his reputation against the Wall Street establishment. He believes that far from being the dawn of a bullish economy, 2011 will witness the end of the post-credit crisis economic recovery. He also believes 2011 will witness a "crisis high" in the stock market and most likely a turning point within the context of the long-term cycles. That analyst is none other than Samuel "Bud" Kress of the SineScope advisory (SJK Capital, 15 Phoenix Ave., Morristown, NJ 07960). His tenth and latest Special Edition is aptly titled, "Crisis High 2011-2014."
In the more than 10 years that Kress has been writing his Special Editions we've seen the long-term sequence of yearly cycles which bear his name unfold according to schedule. We saw the Kress 12-year cycle bottom hard in 2002, producing a major bear market low. We saw the 10-year cycle bottom in 2004, producing a mini-cyclical bear market and another leg of the bull market following its bottom. We saw the 6-year cycle descend into 2008, adding downside impetus to the credit crisis and producing another cyclical bull market in 2009. This year's notable cycle event is the peaking of the 6-year cycle, which takes on special significance since the 6-year cycle is the last of the major yearly cycles to be in the ascending phase. Once the 6-year peaks later this year, each one of the Kress yearly cycles (with the exception of the 4-year) will be in the final "hard down" phase until late 2014.
Until the 6-year cycle peaks, the next few months are likely to witness the transfer of wealth from the insiders to the outsiders. Private equity groups, for instance, will be looking to offload debt via the IPO market. Institutional traders who bought stocks around the lows of the last bear market in late 2008/early 2009 will be looking to sell to the public, which is only just beginning to return to the equities market after spending the last two years in low-yielding bond funds. Such tactics are always employed in critical years when the major yearly cycles are peaking and 2011 should prove to be no exception.
Kress sees 2011 as being the last year of the financial recovery that began in March 2009. He uses the metaphor of a storm to describe the 2008 credit crash and believes the financial storm of that year arrived beginning with the "leading edge," which gave way in 2009 to the benign "eye of the storm." As with a hurricane, the storm's "eye" isn't the end of the storm; rather it's merely a temporary respite as the storm's "trailing edge" follows at some point. Kress believes the "trailing edge" of the financial storm will begin by next year and he says it could be a tsunami.
In section two of the latest Special Edition, Kress provides an in-depth look at the major yearly cycles which comprise the 120-year Grand Super Cycle scheduled to bottom in 2014. When analyzing the impact of the yearly cycles it's important to keep in mind that the final 12% of the duration of any cycle is the "hard down" phase. The 120-year cycle's hard down phase began 14 years prior from 2014, which was 2000. This says Kress, "was the peak of the nation's economic expansion, the beginning of economic winter, and the terminal high."
The 120-year cycle includes two 60-year cycles, which also answers to the economic long wave (also known as the Kondratieff Wave, or K Wave). The K Wave tracks the four economic phases of the credit cycle from boom to bust. Applying the 12% "hard down" rule of thumb, 7 ¼ years retroactive from the scheduled 2014 Grand Super Cycle bottom is mid-2007. "This period began the 'hard down' phase of economic winter prior to the 'credit crash' and the beginning of deflation," writes Kress. "Of greater significance," he adds, "the current 60-year [cycle] is the fourth which completes the series which began with the first 120-year which transformed America into an independent country as we know it today." The inference here is that when the current 120-year/60-year cycles bottom in 2014, the United States will experience a revolutionary transformation, of which Kress has more to say elsewhere in the report.
The 120-year cycle has also aptly been termed the "revolutionary cycle" since its bottom is always accompanied by a revolution of socio-political and economic import. Concerning the upcoming 2014 revolutionary cycle low, of which the recent Middle East uprisings are merely a portent, Kress asks: "Could wealth creation become a rarity; could the American Dream become a fantasy; could we become a socialistic economy; could a WWII equivalent develop; could our political structure be reformed; could it be the end of the Federal Reserve; could the U.S.A.'s premier world power become subordinated to second rate???"
In regard to the 6-year cycle, Kress points out that the present 6-year cycle began in later 2008 and is scheduled to peak in late September/early October this year. He says the peaking of the 6-year cycle should begin the second half of the credit cycle, and that "depression could accelerate the decline of the final three years of all the higher cycles comprising the 120-year Grand Super Cycle in later 2014."
Kress observes, "With all of SineScope's cycles being in the down phase for the first time since 1890, the potential for the worst of anything to occur exists. This elicits some very disarming implications for the U.S.A. and our lifestyles for the next three years."
The latest Special Edition by Kress also discusses the outlook for consumer spending in light of the long-term cycles. "With the consumer representing approximately 70% of our economy," he writes, "growth is dependent on consumer spending, which is a function of credit expansion and increased employment." The credit crisis, however, elicited a sea change of consumer attitude toward debt. As Kress observed, "Consumers not only ceased incurring additional debt, they also began reducing it, which is referred to as 'deleveraging' but in reality is liquidation of capital resulting in reduction of consumer spending."
Kress says that recent earnings gains have been mainly from cost savings realized from deleveraging and employee downsizing, with revenue gains being only a token rate reflection of low consumer spending. He believes that corporate cost savings have nearly run their course. "If [consumer] spending continues to decline," he writes, "corporations might have to close plants which would complete liquidation of the three assets comprising our economy -- human, capital, physical -- and the U.S.A. [will] effectively be in liquidation." He adds that if oil and food prices continue to rise it will further curtail consumer spending, and that an additional "red flag" would be an increase in the unemployment rate.
The most provocative aspect of Kress's latest Special Edition is the discussion of how low the S&P 500 could decline by the time the "revolutionary low" is reached in 2014. Prior to addressing this Kress writes, "Hundreds of equity mutual funds manage trillions of dollars of equities with positions in increments of 100,000 shares. What happens if and when these managers decide to sell -- and to whom?" Accordingly, Kress believes that capital preservation is the watchword for the years 2012-2014 as opposed to capital gains.
Concerning the outlook for gold, Kress points out that two opportunities exist during the 60-year Super Cycle to buy gold. The first is during the hyper-inflationary period of the cycle, in which gold is the ultimate hedge against the ravages of inflation. This period occurred during the inflationary period of 1966-1981 when the gold price increased approximately 23 times measured in price per ounce. Gold then entered a bear market until 2000. "If gold increases the same amount during the same 15 year period of economic contraction from 2000-2014," writes Kress, "gold would achieve over $5,000 per ounce."
Cycles: Over the years I've been asked by many readers what I consider to be the best books on stock market cycles that I can recommend. While there are many excellent works out there on the subject of technical and fundamental analysis, chart reading, etc., precious few have addressed the subject of market cycles. Of the relatively few books on cycles that are available, most don't even merit mentioning. I've read only one book in the genre that I can recommend - The K Wave by David Knox Barker - but even that one doesn't deal directly with stock market cycles but instead with the economic long wave. I'm pleased to announce, however, that after nearly 10 years of research and one year of writing, I've completed a book on the subject that I believe will meet the critical demands of most cycle students. It's entitled, The Stock Market Cycles, and is available for sale at http://clifdroke.com/books/Stock_Market.html
By Clif Droke
Clif Droke is the editor of the daily Gold & Silver Stock Report. Published daily since 2002, the report provides forecasts and analysis of the leading gold, silver, uranium and energy stocks from a short-term technical standpoint. He is also the author of numerous books, including 'How to Read Chart Patterns for Greater Profits.' For more information visit www.clifdroke.com
One analyst who doesn't share this newfound optimism is far from the conventional Wall Street type. He correctly predicted the 2008 credit crash and also turned bullish in March 2009 following the crisis low. He has made a career of going against the consensus and he's once again staking his reputation against the Wall Street establishment. He believes that far from being the dawn of a bullish economy, 2011 will witness the end of the post-credit crisis economic recovery. He also believes 2011 will witness a "crisis high" in the stock market and most likely a turning point within the context of the long-term cycles. That analyst is none other than Samuel "Bud" Kress of the SineScope advisory (SJK Capital, 15 Phoenix Ave., Morristown, NJ 07960). His tenth and latest Special Edition is aptly titled, "Crisis High 2011-2014."
In the more than 10 years that Kress has been writing his Special Editions we've seen the long-term sequence of yearly cycles which bear his name unfold according to schedule. We saw the Kress 12-year cycle bottom hard in 2002, producing a major bear market low. We saw the 10-year cycle bottom in 2004, producing a mini-cyclical bear market and another leg of the bull market following its bottom. We saw the 6-year cycle descend into 2008, adding downside impetus to the credit crisis and producing another cyclical bull market in 2009. This year's notable cycle event is the peaking of the 6-year cycle, which takes on special significance since the 6-year cycle is the last of the major yearly cycles to be in the ascending phase. Once the 6-year peaks later this year, each one of the Kress yearly cycles (with the exception of the 4-year) will be in the final "hard down" phase until late 2014.
Until the 6-year cycle peaks, the next few months are likely to witness the transfer of wealth from the insiders to the outsiders. Private equity groups, for instance, will be looking to offload debt via the IPO market. Institutional traders who bought stocks around the lows of the last bear market in late 2008/early 2009 will be looking to sell to the public, which is only just beginning to return to the equities market after spending the last two years in low-yielding bond funds. Such tactics are always employed in critical years when the major yearly cycles are peaking and 2011 should prove to be no exception.
Kress sees 2011 as being the last year of the financial recovery that began in March 2009. He uses the metaphor of a storm to describe the 2008 credit crash and believes the financial storm of that year arrived beginning with the "leading edge," which gave way in 2009 to the benign "eye of the storm." As with a hurricane, the storm's "eye" isn't the end of the storm; rather it's merely a temporary respite as the storm's "trailing edge" follows at some point. Kress believes the "trailing edge" of the financial storm will begin by next year and he says it could be a tsunami.
In section two of the latest Special Edition, Kress provides an in-depth look at the major yearly cycles which comprise the 120-year Grand Super Cycle scheduled to bottom in 2014. When analyzing the impact of the yearly cycles it's important to keep in mind that the final 12% of the duration of any cycle is the "hard down" phase. The 120-year cycle's hard down phase began 14 years prior from 2014, which was 2000. This says Kress, "was the peak of the nation's economic expansion, the beginning of economic winter, and the terminal high."
The 120-year cycle includes two 60-year cycles, which also answers to the economic long wave (also known as the Kondratieff Wave, or K Wave). The K Wave tracks the four economic phases of the credit cycle from boom to bust. Applying the 12% "hard down" rule of thumb, 7 ¼ years retroactive from the scheduled 2014 Grand Super Cycle bottom is mid-2007. "This period began the 'hard down' phase of economic winter prior to the 'credit crash' and the beginning of deflation," writes Kress. "Of greater significance," he adds, "the current 60-year [cycle] is the fourth which completes the series which began with the first 120-year which transformed America into an independent country as we know it today." The inference here is that when the current 120-year/60-year cycles bottom in 2014, the United States will experience a revolutionary transformation, of which Kress has more to say elsewhere in the report.
The 120-year cycle has also aptly been termed the "revolutionary cycle" since its bottom is always accompanied by a revolution of socio-political and economic import. Concerning the upcoming 2014 revolutionary cycle low, of which the recent Middle East uprisings are merely a portent, Kress asks: "Could wealth creation become a rarity; could the American Dream become a fantasy; could we become a socialistic economy; could a WWII equivalent develop; could our political structure be reformed; could it be the end of the Federal Reserve; could the U.S.A.'s premier world power become subordinated to second rate???"
In regard to the 6-year cycle, Kress points out that the present 6-year cycle began in later 2008 and is scheduled to peak in late September/early October this year. He says the peaking of the 6-year cycle should begin the second half of the credit cycle, and that "depression could accelerate the decline of the final three years of all the higher cycles comprising the 120-year Grand Super Cycle in later 2014."
Kress observes, "With all of SineScope's cycles being in the down phase for the first time since 1890, the potential for the worst of anything to occur exists. This elicits some very disarming implications for the U.S.A. and our lifestyles for the next three years."
The latest Special Edition by Kress also discusses the outlook for consumer spending in light of the long-term cycles. "With the consumer representing approximately 70% of our economy," he writes, "growth is dependent on consumer spending, which is a function of credit expansion and increased employment." The credit crisis, however, elicited a sea change of consumer attitude toward debt. As Kress observed, "Consumers not only ceased incurring additional debt, they also began reducing it, which is referred to as 'deleveraging' but in reality is liquidation of capital resulting in reduction of consumer spending."
Kress says that recent earnings gains have been mainly from cost savings realized from deleveraging and employee downsizing, with revenue gains being only a token rate reflection of low consumer spending. He believes that corporate cost savings have nearly run their course. "If [consumer] spending continues to decline," he writes, "corporations might have to close plants which would complete liquidation of the three assets comprising our economy -- human, capital, physical -- and the U.S.A. [will] effectively be in liquidation." He adds that if oil and food prices continue to rise it will further curtail consumer spending, and that an additional "red flag" would be an increase in the unemployment rate.
The most provocative aspect of Kress's latest Special Edition is the discussion of how low the S&P 500 could decline by the time the "revolutionary low" is reached in 2014. Prior to addressing this Kress writes, "Hundreds of equity mutual funds manage trillions of dollars of equities with positions in increments of 100,000 shares. What happens if and when these managers decide to sell -- and to whom?" Accordingly, Kress believes that capital preservation is the watchword for the years 2012-2014 as opposed to capital gains.
Concerning the outlook for gold, Kress points out that two opportunities exist during the 60-year Super Cycle to buy gold. The first is during the hyper-inflationary period of the cycle, in which gold is the ultimate hedge against the ravages of inflation. This period occurred during the inflationary period of 1966-1981 when the gold price increased approximately 23 times measured in price per ounce. Gold then entered a bear market until 2000. "If gold increases the same amount during the same 15 year period of economic contraction from 2000-2014," writes Kress, "gold would achieve over $5,000 per ounce."
Cycles: Over the years I've been asked by many readers what I consider to be the best books on stock market cycles that I can recommend. While there are many excellent works out there on the subject of technical and fundamental analysis, chart reading, etc., precious few have addressed the subject of market cycles. Of the relatively few books on cycles that are available, most don't even merit mentioning. I've read only one book in the genre that I can recommend - The K Wave by David Knox Barker - but even that one doesn't deal directly with stock market cycles but instead with the economic long wave. I'm pleased to announce, however, that after nearly 10 years of research and one year of writing, I've completed a book on the subject that I believe will meet the critical demands of most cycle students. It's entitled, The Stock Market Cycles, and is available for sale at http://clifdroke.com/books/Stock_Market.html
By Clif Droke
Clif Droke is the editor of the daily Gold & Silver Stock Report. Published daily since 2002, the report provides forecasts and analysis of the leading gold, silver, uranium and energy stocks from a short-term technical standpoint. He is also the author of numerous books, including 'How to Read Chart Patterns for Greater Profits.' For more information visit www.clifdroke.com
Market Profile & EW: @IHSG In Bullish Mode Ahead of Reversal
IHSG Short-Term
IHSG Med-Term
IHSG EW: Near Overbought, Potential Rebound Limited. Risk < Reward.
DJIA EW: Extreme Overbought, Potential Rebound Limited. Risk < Reward.
Monday, February 14, 2011
US Stock Market Trends All Remain Up
Very Long-term trend - The continuing strength in the indices is causing me to question whether we are in a secular bear market, or two cyclical bull/bear cycles side by side. In any case, the very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep and prolonged decline into 2014-15.
Long-term trend -In March 2009, the SPX began an upward move in the form of a mini bull market. Cycles point to a continuation of this trend for several more months.
SPX: Intermediate trend - The intermediate trend is still up and does not look in immediate danger of reversing. Recent action continues to point to the imminent formation of a short-term top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
By: Andre_Gratian
Source: http://www.marketurningpoints.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/Newsletter-Jan.-30-2011-1.pdf
Long-term trend -In March 2009, the SPX began an upward move in the form of a mini bull market. Cycles point to a continuation of this trend for several more months.
SPX: Intermediate trend - The intermediate trend is still up and does not look in immediate danger of reversing. Recent action continues to point to the imminent formation of a short-term top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
By: Andre_Gratian
Source: http://www.marketurningpoints.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/Newsletter-Jan.-30-2011-1.pdf
China drought! Will this be the next trigger for more Egypts
The Chinese government has reportedly decided to spend $1 billion to battle the drought plaguing huge areas in the north, as wheat prices continued their climb and the UN warned of serious consequences for the winter harvest. The drought is the worst in six decades in many areas, and has left a swathe of grain-producing regions reeling from a lack of any significant rainfall in more than three months.
The money will be spent to divert water to affected areas, construct emergency wells and irrigation facilities, and take other measures, the State Council, or the Cabinet, said in a statement on Wednesday after an executive meeting chaired by Premier Wen Jiabao.
Source: http://dawnwires.com/investment-news/china-drought-will-this-be-the-next-trigger-for-more-egypts/
The money will be spent to divert water to affected areas, construct emergency wells and irrigation facilities, and take other measures, the State Council, or the Cabinet, said in a statement on Wednesday after an executive meeting chaired by Premier Wen Jiabao.
Source: http://dawnwires.com/investment-news/china-drought-will-this-be-the-next-trigger-for-more-egypts/
@IHSG VS DJIA: A Limited Bullish Continuation
IHSG 4-Jam: @Hold buy IHSG 3.553-3.363 (10/02) target 3.420/3.450 stop loss dibawah 3.336.
DJIA 4-Jam: A very overbought, should correct lower in 2-3 days to go around resist 12.410-12.500 for 10%???
DJIA 4-Jam: A very overbought, should correct lower in 2-3 days to go around resist 12.410-12.500 for 10%???
Sunday, February 13, 2011
Technical Analysis IPO Garuda Airlines (GIAA) 14-02 is Next
Setelah kesuksesan memprediksi sejumlah IPO:
*IPO GIAA: Buy 580 & 650 target sell 650/660 (Done) = +12% + 0% (Gross Profit).
(http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/2011/01/first-technical-analysis-ipo-garuda-in.html)
* KRAS & APLN (http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/2010/11/ipo-pt-bumi-resources-mineral-tbk.html)
* BORN (http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/2010/11/tonite-release-technical-analysis-st.html)
* BRMS (http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/2010/12/technical-analysis-cta-first-time.html)
* MFMI (http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/2010/12/ipo-multifiling-mitra-indonesia-tbk-29.html)
* BSIM (http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/2010/12/technical-analysis-cta-first-time_13.html)
* MIDI (http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/2010/11/tonite-release-technical-analysis-st.html)
No. 21 (dalam tabel fase Bulan) untuk pandangan fase Bulan pada 14/02/2011: Waxing Gibbous 75% of Full: Perkiraan harga saham GIAA tidak kian membaik, cenderung terbebani oleh pengaruh Bulan yang mendekati Full Moon 18 Feb.
GIAA 11/02 Intraday: Penutupan (620) dibawah Pivot Point (633)
*IPO GIAA: Buy 580 & 650 target sell 650/660 (Done) = +12% + 0% (Gross Profit).
(http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/2011/01/first-technical-analysis-ipo-garuda-in.html)
* KRAS & APLN (http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/2010/11/ipo-pt-bumi-resources-mineral-tbk.html)
* BORN (http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/2010/11/tonite-release-technical-analysis-st.html)
* BRMS (http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/2010/12/technical-analysis-cta-first-time.html)
* MFMI (http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/2010/12/ipo-multifiling-mitra-indonesia-tbk-29.html)
* BSIM (http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/2010/12/technical-analysis-cta-first-time_13.html)
* MIDI (http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/2010/11/tonite-release-technical-analysis-st.html)
No. 21 (dalam tabel fase Bulan) untuk pandangan fase Bulan pada 14/02/2011: Waxing Gibbous 75% of Full: Perkiraan harga saham GIAA tidak kian membaik, cenderung terbebani oleh pengaruh Bulan yang mendekati Full Moon 18 Feb.
7 Strategist :
1) Sell 650-660 selama berada di bawah 660; 2) Buy breakout 660 target 720; 3) Sell 720-750, kecuali naik diatas 750; 4) Buy 580 target 650; 5) Sell jika breakout 580 target 500; 6) Buy 500-510 target 580 stop loss dibawah 500; 7) Sell jika breakout 500 target 440.
Kalender Ekonomi & Event Global (14 - 18 Februari 2011): A Cautious Potential Reversal Concerning Overbought Pattern
WIB: +12 Jam
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
Wall Street looks to less-anxious week
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-looks-to-less-anxious-week-2011-02-12
Week Ahead: Retail Sales Probably Rose in January as Promotions Enticed U.S. Shoppers
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-13/retail-sales-probably-climbed-in-january-u-s-economy-preview.html
Week Ahead: New Bulls Running With the Herd Drive Stocks Higher
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41539181
Earnings Central
Monday's earnings released include Marriott, Masco, FMC, Diebold, MGM Resorts and Agilent. Barclays, CIT, Qwest, Sirius XM Radio, Omnicom, Watson Pharmaceuticals, Marsh an McLennan and Warner Chilcott report Tuesday morning. Dell, Analog Devices and Tesla report after the bell Tuesday. Wednesday's reports include Comcast, the parent of CNBC, Cablevision, Dean Foods, Genzyme, Devon Energy, Owens Corning and Deere. CBS, NetApp, Nvidia and Cliffs Natural Resource report after the bell Wednesday. Apache, Barrick Gold, Dr. Pepper Snapple, Duke Energy, PG&E, Williams Cos, Waste Management, and JM Smucker report Thursday morning, and Nordstrom, Intuit, CF Industries, Clearwire, and SunPower report after Thursday's close. Campbell Soup, Calpine, Brookfield Asset Management and Pinnacle West report Friday.
Weekahead Asia: China inflation, Japan GDP on tap for Asia
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-inflation-japan-gdp-on-tap-for-asia-2011-02-12
Commodities Next Week
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=3000005351&play=1
Cramer: 20 Must-Watch Earnings Next Week
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41532840
Garuda Tumbles in Jakarta Debut as Rising Fuel May Damp Airlines' Profits
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-11/garuda-shares-tumble-in-jakarta-debut-after-ipo-priced-at-bottom-of-range.html
Did you miss the bull market?
http://www.marketwatch.com/video/asset/the-weeks-top-10-videos-on-marketwatch-2011-02-12/29183839-6D50-41E1-BFB4-3687ED677420
Crisis Over: Sell Crude, Buy Stocks?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41532938
Natural Gas in Bear Market 'Grand Slam'
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41524342
Taiwan’s Index Slumps After Breaching Level: Technical Analysis
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aDafq7fuFZkk
Asian Exchanges May Be Next In Growing Wave of Mergers
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41497116
Asian Currencies Fall as Global Funds Reduce Holdings on Growth Concerns
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-11/asian-currencies-slide-this-week-as-economic-growth-concerns-spur-outflows.html
Palm Oil Fluctuates as Rally to Three-Year High May Hurt Demand
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-11/palm-oil-fluctuates-as-rally-to-three-year-high-may-hurt-demand.html
Asian Stocks Drop Amid Egypt Protests, China Tightening; Li & Fung Rises
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-11/asian-stocks-drop-on-egypt-crisis-china-tightening-concerns.html
U.S. Stocks Rise After Mubarak's Resignation, Gain in Consumer Confidence
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-12/u-s-stocks-rise-for-a-second-week-on-m-a-retail-sales-egypt.html
Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook
ONG Focus | Technical | Written by Oil N' Gold | Sat Feb 12 11 08:59 ET
Crude oil's fall from 92.84 extended further to as low as 85.10 last week and is now pressing 85.11 key near term support level. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for deeper fall. Sustained break of 85.11 will be an early signal of reversal and should bring deeper fall to medium term rising channel support (now at 82.0). On the upside, above 87.90 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside and turn focus back to 92.84 high instead.
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's choppy recovery from 1390.1 extended further last week but overall outlook remains unchanged. Rise from 1309.1 should be a correction to fall from 1424.4 only and upside is expected to be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1424.4 to 1309.1 at 1380.4 and bring fall resumption. Below 1344.1 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 1309.1 and below. However, sustained trading above 1380.4 fibonacci level will turn focus back to 1424.4 high instead.
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
Wall Street looks to less-anxious week
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-looks-to-less-anxious-week-2011-02-12
Week Ahead: Retail Sales Probably Rose in January as Promotions Enticed U.S. Shoppers
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-13/retail-sales-probably-climbed-in-january-u-s-economy-preview.html
Week Ahead: New Bulls Running With the Herd Drive Stocks Higherhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/41539181
Earnings Central
Monday's earnings released include Marriott, Masco, FMC, Diebold, MGM Resorts and Agilent. Barclays, CIT, Qwest, Sirius XM Radio, Omnicom, Watson Pharmaceuticals, Marsh an McLennan and Warner Chilcott report Tuesday morning. Dell, Analog Devices and Tesla report after the bell Tuesday. Wednesday's reports include Comcast, the parent of CNBC, Cablevision, Dean Foods, Genzyme, Devon Energy, Owens Corning and Deere. CBS, NetApp, Nvidia and Cliffs Natural Resource report after the bell Wednesday. Apache, Barrick Gold, Dr. Pepper Snapple, Duke Energy, PG&E, Williams Cos, Waste Management, and JM Smucker report Thursday morning, and Nordstrom, Intuit, CF Industries, Clearwire, and SunPower report after Thursday's close. Campbell Soup, Calpine, Brookfield Asset Management and Pinnacle West report Friday.
Weekahead Asia: China inflation, Japan GDP on tap for Asia
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-inflation-japan-gdp-on-tap-for-asia-2011-02-12
Commodities Next Week
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=3000005351&play=1
Cramer: 20 Must-Watch Earnings Next Week
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41532840
Garuda Tumbles in Jakarta Debut as Rising Fuel May Damp Airlines' Profits
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-11/garuda-shares-tumble-in-jakarta-debut-after-ipo-priced-at-bottom-of-range.html
Did you miss the bull market?
http://www.marketwatch.com/video/asset/the-weeks-top-10-videos-on-marketwatch-2011-02-12/29183839-6D50-41E1-BFB4-3687ED677420
Crisis Over: Sell Crude, Buy Stocks?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41532938
Natural Gas in Bear Market 'Grand Slam'
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41524342
Taiwan’s Index Slumps After Breaching Level: Technical Analysis
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aDafq7fuFZkk
Asian Exchanges May Be Next In Growing Wave of Mergers
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41497116
Asian Currencies Fall as Global Funds Reduce Holdings on Growth Concerns
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-11/asian-currencies-slide-this-week-as-economic-growth-concerns-spur-outflows.html
Palm Oil Fluctuates as Rally to Three-Year High May Hurt Demand
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-11/palm-oil-fluctuates-as-rally-to-three-year-high-may-hurt-demand.html
Asian Stocks Drop Amid Egypt Protests, China Tightening; Li & Fung Rises
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-11/asian-stocks-drop-on-egypt-crisis-china-tightening-concerns.html
U.S. Stocks Rise After Mubarak's Resignation, Gain in Consumer Confidence
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-12/u-s-stocks-rise-for-a-second-week-on-m-a-retail-sales-egypt.html
Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook
ONG Focus | Technical | Written by Oil N' Gold | Sat Feb 12 11 08:59 ET
Crude oil's fall from 92.84 extended further to as low as 85.10 last week and is now pressing 85.11 key near term support level. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for deeper fall. Sustained break of 85.11 will be an early signal of reversal and should bring deeper fall to medium term rising channel support (now at 82.0). On the upside, above 87.90 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside and turn focus back to 92.84 high instead.
Gold's choppy recovery from 1390.1 extended further last week but overall outlook remains unchanged. Rise from 1309.1 should be a correction to fall from 1424.4 only and upside is expected to be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1424.4 to 1309.1 at 1380.4 and bring fall resumption. Below 1344.1 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 1309.1 and below. However, sustained trading above 1380.4 fibonacci level will turn focus back to 1424.4 high instead.
EWI: Love of Luxury: When Have We Seen This Before?
Love of Luxury: When Have We Seen This Before?
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/10/Love-of-Luxury-When-Have-We-Seen-This-Before.aspx
US Housing Market: The Lost City Of Atlantis
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/10/US-Housing-Market-The-Lost-City-Of-Atlantis.aspx
Why Was Ronald Reagan, Born 100 Years Ago, So Popular?
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/11/Why-Was-Ronald-Reagan-Born-100-Years-Ago-So-Popular.aspx
EURUSD: Dollar Rallies, Euro Falls -- Blame Egypt?
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/11/EURUSD-Dollar-Rallies,-Euro-Falls----Blame-Egypt.aspx
USDCHF (Video): How to Identify Opportunities in Forex Using Elliott Wave Analysis
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/07/USDCHF-%28Video%29-How-to-Identify-Opportunities-in-Forex-Using-Elliott-Wave-Analysis.aspx
Egypt Protests: Will They Impact Local Stock Markets?
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/08/Egypt-Riots-Will-They-Impact-Local-Stock-Markets.aspx
Gold Prices Have NOT Defied The Laws Of Gravity
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/09/Gold-Prices-Have-NOT-Defied-The-Laws-Of-Gravity.aspx
Sugar Prices Sink: How Elliott Wave Patterns Foresaw The Turn Down
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/08/Sugar-Prices-Sink-How-Elliott-Wave-Patterns-Foresaw-The-Turn-Down.aspx
New Horizons: The 2011 Socionomics Summit
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/10/New-Horizons-The-2011-Socionomics-Summit-.aspx
The "Urge to Splurge" - New Trend, or Echo of the Old Mania?
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/08/The--Urge-to-Splurge----New-Trend-or-Echo-of-the-Old-Mania.aspx
Europe on the Edge: Is a "Tipping Point" Near?
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/07/Europe-on-the-Edge-Is-a--Tipping-Point--Near.aspx
EWI, why won’t you simply turn bullish on stocks again?
At what point will EWI reassess its bearish scenario and admit that we are in a new bull market? It's admirable that EWI is sticking to its guns, but not being in the stock market over the past year has been painful (albeit "safe," if you're in cash). Seems like EWI is understating the power of the Fed to create endless credit.
Reagan vs. Obama: How do we tell a "bull market" politician from a "bear market" one?
Barack Obama sees himself as a "transformational", bull-market politician like Ronald Reagan; however, Ronald Reagan WAS a bull market politician, yet all of our Elliott wave analysis indicates that Obama is not; how do we tell the difference?
Responder: The Socionomics Institute Date: 2/9/2011
Both Reagan's popularity and the Dow fell during his first 2 years in office. What's important is that Obama's popularity also fell for his first two years while the Dow rallied 60%. We've said before that president's popularity can serve as a leading social mood/stock market indicator. The divergence between Obama's falling popularity against rising stocks suggests that the larger social mood trend is downward. As to how to tell a "bull market" president from a "bear market" one -- we don't get that luxury. Social mood determines a president's bull-or-bear market fate. (Ed.: See the Jan. 27 Q&A "Obama: Will he be re-elected if the bear market resumes?" for more on that.)
Triangle: Can wave E go beyond wave C, or wave A?
From what I've seen, wave E of a triangle sometimes goes beyond the extreme of wave C. Can wave E goes beyond wave A? If yes, how often does that happen, and by how much (in Fibonacci terms) may it go beyond wave A?
Responder: Wayne Gorman Date: 2/7/2011
In a contracting or barrier triangle, wave E can never go beyond the end of wave C and therefore can never go beyond the end of wave A.
Fibonacci measurement: Where do I start when wave 5 truncates?
In the event of a W5 failure (truncation), where should the Fibonacci retracement be measured from, W5 top or W3 top?
Responder: Wayne Gorman Date: 2/7/2011
You could look at both and see which one may help to form a Fibonacci cluster. But my first preference would be to measure from the orthodox end of the wave, which would be from the end of wave 5.
George Soros' Reflexivity Theory: Similar to Prechter's socionomics?
Have you tried to reconcile Elliott wave analysis with George Soros' theory of Reflexivity? It holds that social sciences differ from natural sciences because cause and effect cannot be separated from its observers own perceptual bias. Hence, the way we perceive a 'cause' alters the way we perceive it's 'effect'. And since that 'effect' will become a 'cause' so on and so forth unto infinity, the market is subject to an interrelated perceptual bias which compounds over time. To me, these two theories seem like two sides of the same coin.
Responder: Multi-Author Date: 2/2/2011
Bob Prechter's socionomic theory has many elements in common with Soros’ theory of history. Soros' key concept of the crucial role of “reflexivity” between thinking and reality is similar to socionomic theory’s concept of the reciprocal relationship between individual perceptions/choices and the social dynamics of society at the aggregate level. But “reflexivity” -- as we see it -- is between the individual and the aggregate levels, not between news headlines and social mood. We do not believe that social events, as reflected in the news headlines, reinforce social mood. If there were feedback loops between the two, trends would extend indefinitely -- but they don't. Here's how Bob Prechter puts it: "Studies have shown that even the most dramatic social actions and events have no effect on the tenor or character of social mood, thus challenging the idea of a 'feedback loop' between social mood and social action. I have concluded from these studies that social mood induces social action, period. The fact that manifestations of social mood fluctuate according to a patterned fractal called the Wave Principle is compatible with this conclusion." (Elliott Wave Theorist, April, September 2004; copy at Customer Service.) To see evolutionary, biological and psychological evidence for the existence of social mood phenomenon, read Bob Prechter's The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior. You may also enjoy the free online documentary on socionomics, "History's Hidden Engine."
Obama: Will he be re-elected if the bear market resumes?
I know it is an early question, but would Obama be reelected if your bear market forecast comes true?
Rising consumer confidence: Bullish sign for the stock market?
The latest U.S. consumer confidence number were quite high. Is that a reflection of improving social mood?
Social mood: Can it diverge from the DJIA, its best-known indicator?
Is there any way to measure the momentum of the social mood? I understand the obvious answer is to simply measure the momentum of the DJIA, but when there are large drops in the stock market, there is also likely to be huge rallies which are usually short term profit taking and therefore don't reflect the social mood? Can there be a short term divergence between the DJIA and the social mood?
Responder: Wayne Gorman Date: 2/1/2011
All movements in the DJIA reflect social mood, but the direction and magnitude of social mood trends are not the same at all wave degrees or time frames. To measure social mood momentum, use the DJIA and apply your preferred momentum indicator and time frame.
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/10/Love-of-Luxury-When-Have-We-Seen-This-Before.aspx
US Housing Market: The Lost City Of Atlantis
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/10/US-Housing-Market-The-Lost-City-Of-Atlantis.aspx
Why Was Ronald Reagan, Born 100 Years Ago, So Popular?
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/11/Why-Was-Ronald-Reagan-Born-100-Years-Ago-So-Popular.aspx
EURUSD: Dollar Rallies, Euro Falls -- Blame Egypt?
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/11/EURUSD-Dollar-Rallies,-Euro-Falls----Blame-Egypt.aspx
USDCHF (Video): How to Identify Opportunities in Forex Using Elliott Wave Analysis
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/07/USDCHF-%28Video%29-How-to-Identify-Opportunities-in-Forex-Using-Elliott-Wave-Analysis.aspx
Egypt Protests: Will They Impact Local Stock Markets?
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/08/Egypt-Riots-Will-They-Impact-Local-Stock-Markets.aspx
Gold Prices Have NOT Defied The Laws Of Gravity
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/09/Gold-Prices-Have-NOT-Defied-The-Laws-Of-Gravity.aspx
Sugar Prices Sink: How Elliott Wave Patterns Foresaw The Turn Down
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/08/Sugar-Prices-Sink-How-Elliott-Wave-Patterns-Foresaw-The-Turn-Down.aspx
New Horizons: The 2011 Socionomics Summit
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/10/New-Horizons-The-2011-Socionomics-Summit-.aspx
The "Urge to Splurge" - New Trend, or Echo of the Old Mania?
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/08/The--Urge-to-Splurge----New-Trend-or-Echo-of-the-Old-Mania.aspx
Europe on the Edge: Is a "Tipping Point" Near?
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/07/Europe-on-the-Edge-Is-a--Tipping-Point--Near.aspx
EWI, why won’t you simply turn bullish on stocks again?
At what point will EWI reassess its bearish scenario and admit that we are in a new bull market? It's admirable that EWI is sticking to its guns, but not being in the stock market over the past year has been painful (albeit "safe," if you're in cash). Seems like EWI is understating the power of the Fed to create endless credit.
Reagan vs. Obama: How do we tell a "bull market" politician from a "bear market" one?
Barack Obama sees himself as a "transformational", bull-market politician like Ronald Reagan; however, Ronald Reagan WAS a bull market politician, yet all of our Elliott wave analysis indicates that Obama is not; how do we tell the difference?
Responder: The Socionomics Institute Date: 2/9/2011
Both Reagan's popularity and the Dow fell during his first 2 years in office. What's important is that Obama's popularity also fell for his first two years while the Dow rallied 60%. We've said before that president's popularity can serve as a leading social mood/stock market indicator. The divergence between Obama's falling popularity against rising stocks suggests that the larger social mood trend is downward. As to how to tell a "bull market" president from a "bear market" one -- we don't get that luxury. Social mood determines a president's bull-or-bear market fate. (Ed.: See the Jan. 27 Q&A "Obama: Will he be re-elected if the bear market resumes?" for more on that.)
Triangle: Can wave E go beyond wave C, or wave A?
From what I've seen, wave E of a triangle sometimes goes beyond the extreme of wave C. Can wave E goes beyond wave A? If yes, how often does that happen, and by how much (in Fibonacci terms) may it go beyond wave A?
Responder: Wayne Gorman Date: 2/7/2011
In a contracting or barrier triangle, wave E can never go beyond the end of wave C and therefore can never go beyond the end of wave A.
Fibonacci measurement: Where do I start when wave 5 truncates?
In the event of a W5 failure (truncation), where should the Fibonacci retracement be measured from, W5 top or W3 top?
Responder: Wayne Gorman Date: 2/7/2011
You could look at both and see which one may help to form a Fibonacci cluster. But my first preference would be to measure from the orthodox end of the wave, which would be from the end of wave 5.
George Soros' Reflexivity Theory: Similar to Prechter's socionomics?
Have you tried to reconcile Elliott wave analysis with George Soros' theory of Reflexivity? It holds that social sciences differ from natural sciences because cause and effect cannot be separated from its observers own perceptual bias. Hence, the way we perceive a 'cause' alters the way we perceive it's 'effect'. And since that 'effect' will become a 'cause' so on and so forth unto infinity, the market is subject to an interrelated perceptual bias which compounds over time. To me, these two theories seem like two sides of the same coin.
Responder: Multi-Author Date: 2/2/2011
Bob Prechter's socionomic theory has many elements in common with Soros’ theory of history. Soros' key concept of the crucial role of “reflexivity” between thinking and reality is similar to socionomic theory’s concept of the reciprocal relationship between individual perceptions/choices and the social dynamics of society at the aggregate level. But “reflexivity” -- as we see it -- is between the individual and the aggregate levels, not between news headlines and social mood. We do not believe that social events, as reflected in the news headlines, reinforce social mood. If there were feedback loops between the two, trends would extend indefinitely -- but they don't. Here's how Bob Prechter puts it: "Studies have shown that even the most dramatic social actions and events have no effect on the tenor or character of social mood, thus challenging the idea of a 'feedback loop' between social mood and social action. I have concluded from these studies that social mood induces social action, period. The fact that manifestations of social mood fluctuate according to a patterned fractal called the Wave Principle is compatible with this conclusion." (Elliott Wave Theorist, April, September 2004; copy at Customer Service.) To see evolutionary, biological and psychological evidence for the existence of social mood phenomenon, read Bob Prechter's The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior. You may also enjoy the free online documentary on socionomics, "History's Hidden Engine."
Obama: Will he be re-elected if the bear market resumes?
I know it is an early question, but would Obama be reelected if your bear market forecast comes true?
Rising consumer confidence: Bullish sign for the stock market?
The latest U.S. consumer confidence number were quite high. Is that a reflection of improving social mood?
Social mood: Can it diverge from the DJIA, its best-known indicator?
Is there any way to measure the momentum of the social mood? I understand the obvious answer is to simply measure the momentum of the DJIA, but when there are large drops in the stock market, there is also likely to be huge rallies which are usually short term profit taking and therefore don't reflect the social mood? Can there be a short term divergence between the DJIA and the social mood?
Responder: Wayne Gorman Date: 2/1/2011
All movements in the DJIA reflect social mood, but the direction and magnitude of social mood trends are not the same at all wave degrees or time frames. To measure social mood momentum, use the DJIA and apply your preferred momentum indicator and time frame.