The Combination of Technical-Analysis & Astrolo9y (CTA)

Blog milik Andri Zakarias Siregar, Analis, Trader, Investor & Trainer (Fundamental/Technical/Flowtist/Bandarmologi: Saham/FX/Commodity), berpengalaman 14 tahun. Narasumber: Berita 1 First Media, Channel 95 MNC(Indovision), MetroTV, ANTV, Bloomberg BusinessWeek, Investor Today, Tempo, Trust, Media Indonesia, Bisnis Indonesia, Seputar Indonesia, Kontan, Harian Jakarta, PasFM, Inilah.com, AATI-IFTA *** Semoga analisa CTA & informasi bermanfaat. Happy Zhuan & Success Trading. Good Luck.

Friday, March 4, 2011

@DJIA 30 Minutes: If Technical Analysis Get Along With Fundametal (US Payroll) Tonite?

US February Payroll is predicted +196K (From +36K in January); @19.30 WIB

Global Financial Fraud, Global Hope. The world financial system is one gargantuan Ponzi scheme...

An Address to the International UFO Congress, Fort McDowell Resort, Scottsdale, Arizona, Saturday, February 26, 2011 by Hon. Paul Hellyer, P.C. Former Canadian Minister of National Defence

The world financial system is a total fraud. It is one gargantuan Ponzi scheme, no better than the one Bernie Madoff used to swindle his friends and neighbors, and thousands of times worse if you add up the total number of victims it has ripped off over countless generations.

The principal difference between the two schemes is that Madoff was acting outside the law while the international banking cartel has persuaded generation after generation of monarchs, presidents and prime ministers to provide legislative protection for their larceny.

The banks Ponzi scheme is alarmingly simple. They lend the same money to several people or institutions at the same time and collect interest on it from each. What the banks really lend, however, is their credit, and what they take back in compensation for that privilege is a debt that must be repaid with interest.

Detail Source: http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=23431

Update Earnings & Report Equity Indonesia Q4 2010 & FY 2010

Timing Crude Oil Prices With 100% Accuracy

Trading crude oil prices or oil etfs can be tricky. Or NOT! If you can find the dominant cycle and add a smart oscillator you can achieve good returns. Via our RTT Cycle Spectrum scanner we found that the daily 56 cycle period has been working well with the United States Oil ETF (USO: 41.18 -0.21 -0.51%), and add a few simple rules one can profit.

Detail Sources: http://www.dailymarkets.com/stock/2011/03/03/timing-crude-oil-prices-with-100-accuracy/

WTI Crude Oil Could Reach $110.00 Per Barrel
The price of global crude oil once again reached $100.00 per barrel and has been trading in that area more roughly more than a week now. Will it continue to go higher? Let us see.

In my last post on WTI crude oil last February 1, 2011 (kindly see it here), it was only exchanging at around $92.84 per barrel. However, it was already trading within a right angled and broadening descending triangle formation therefore a breakout from such could swing it all the way to $100 dollar per barrel. Three weeks after, on February 21, the breakout happened when it pierced right through the $92.50 resistance. The move was also boosted by a bullish breakaway gap that occurred the day before. WTI crude oil eventually reached its minimum price target of $100 per barrel and even peaked at $103.40 on February 24. Since then, though, crude oil, somewhat eased and is now just trading just above $100.00.

Detail Source: http://www.dailymarkets.com/stock/2011/03/03/wti-crude-oil-could-reach-110-00-per-barrel/

A Look at 8 Stocks That George Soros Is Buying

George Soros is a billionaire investor who uses a hedge fund strategy that searches for mispriced assets based on macroeconomics. Those assets can come from anywhere in the world and be of any type, including bonds, currencies, stocks, interest rates or commodities. Soros also concentrates his portfolio among a few assets (see here). I think this strategy of "concentrating" is important because:

1. It allows the investor to spend less on transaction fees.
2. It increases the odds of getting higher yields. If the investor has a basket of stocks, all assets need to gain 100% to double all of the invested money.

This strategy, however, also has risks, because if the assets fall, the investor could get burnt. Thus, it is important to pick an asset that has minimal downside. However, picking an asset that has minimal upside is not a very good move either, in my opinion. I also like looking for an asset (or stock) that I can hold for at least a year to minimize taxes while still enjoying a strong yield.

So let’s look at the top stocks that George Soros is buying as of February 23rd. The top black line in each graph is overbought, and the bottom line is oversold. Green circles are bullish signals. Red circles are bearish signals.

Detail Source: http://seekingalpha.com/article/255550-a-look-at-8-stocks-that-george-soros-is-buying

Thursday, March 3, 2011

EW & GANN Analysis: IHSG/DJIA (Potential Rebound) vs Oil (Potential Double Top) Ahead of BI Rate & US Payroll (04/03)

IHSG:

IHSG EW:

DJIA:

OIL:

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Update Daily Investment News 02-03

Wednesday Look Ahead: Oil Market is Barometer for Stocks
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41859897

Retail Sales Steady Despite Storms, Higher Gasoline Prices
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41783543

Oil's Next Target May Be Rapid Move to $112: Charts
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41859780

Five Things We're Watching: March 2, 2011
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41857625

China Property Not in a Bubble: Strategist
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41843291

El-Erian Sees Different Outcomes for Mideast Countries
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41853180

Cramer: Worried About Oil? Go For the Gold
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41852926

Commodities Tomorrow: Oil & Gold Soar
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=3000008125&play=1

Copper, Corn May Slump on Mideast Unrest as Gold Jumps to $1,500, UBS Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-02/copper-corn-may-slump-on-mideast-unrest-as-gold-jumps-to-1-500-ubs-says.html

Bartels Sees S&P 500’s Loss Limited to 6%: Technical Analysis
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-01/bartels-sees-s-p-500-s-loss-limited-to-6-technical-analysis.html

Written by Admiral Markets The Daily Wave Analysis
Currency pair EUR/USD
Presumably, the wave an of (ii) is formed. Probably, it becomes the Zigzag at which the wave [C] of an is formed. If the assumption is true, while, within the limits of its complete set it is possible to expect local falling of pair

Currency pair GBP/USD.
It is not excluded, that the impulse with of (x) the complete if the assumption is true can be expected formations of the wave a the descending design (y) of [ii].

Currency pair USD/JPY.
It is not excluded, that the correctional wave iv of (iii) is veiled. If it so it is possible to expect falling of pair as the impulse or the Diagonal Triangle v of (iii). At the same time this idea while demands confirmation.

Currency pair USD/CHF
Presumably, development of the correctional wave iv of (iii) proceeds. Probably, it becomes the Corrective Combination. If the assumption is true, after its end it is possible to expect one more thrust of the price downward, as the impulse or the Diagonal Triangle v of (iii).

Investing Like Buffett: 5 Ways to Achieve Legendary Returns

People are always interested to hear what Warren Buffett has to say about the current state of the economy, but what everyone actually cares about is how he continues to achieve such amazing returns after all this time. Of course he’s always willing to impart pieces of his wisdom to the public, but sometimes they sound like cryptic messages from the future, while others are crystal clear to understand. Unfortunately, a conceptual understanding of what he says is very different than turning his thoughts into sound investment principles and actions. This is why we have pinpointed five easy Buffett investment principles, which build upon each other, that hopefully will help the everyday investor to achieve better returns.

1. Be a Bear Market Investor
2. Invest in What the World Needs
3. Fundamental Analysis and Due Diligence
4. Pricing Power beats Sound Management
5. Patience
Conclusion

Source Details: http://seekingalpha.com/article/254172-investing-like-buffett-5-ways-to-achieve-legendary-returns

@Full Moon Effect's For Minor Correction, Ready To Buy on Weakness 03-03

Giant Full Moon Coming—Danger for Stocks?
What happens when a bull market meets a bad moon rising? We’ll find out this month.

On March 19th, a full moon will occur at around the same time it reaches its closest point to Earth in recent history. Rare planetary events such as this are often associated with above-normal tides, an increase in volcanic activity and more frequent earthquakes, according to astronomers and yes…even some market analysts.

Source Details: http://www.cnbc.com/id/41850086

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Warren Buffett's Secret to Making 100% a Year

I love the Berkshire Hathaway annual report!

Especially Warren Buffett’s letter to shareholders. The report gives us a great view of the overall economy from a man who has his finger in every pot, and his letter to investors gives us a very good insight as to how things are going in the various sectors his operations cover. Most importantly, what I have learned in my own 40 years of reading Mr. Buffett’s reports (my grandfather was a shareholder) is what should shape any long-term investing strategy: patience and performance.

I often preach to members the joys of letting gains compound, and our $25,000-$100,000 Portfolio, which is currently at $27,531 (up 10%) after 4 weeks, is an exercise in how to quickly compound small gains over the course of a year. Primarily, we try to follow Warren Buffett’s Number One Rule of Investing, which is: Don’t Lose Money. Buffett’s Rule #2 is: See Rule #1 – and like us, it’s not that nothing Warren Buffett ever buys loses money, it’s just that he doesn’t ever buy things he isn’t willing to stick with UNTIL they make money. Sure we take a few losses along the road but, by being selective in our entries, we don’t discard stocks that we carefully selected just because the market temporarily disagrees with our valuations.

Detail Source: http://seekingalpha.com/article/255198-warren-buffett-s-secret-to-making-100-a-year?source=article_sb_popular_4_old

EW: DJIA/IHSG/EUR-USD/N225/HSI (Bullish Continuation) vs Oil/Gold/USD-IDR (Bearish Continuation)

IHSG

DJIA

IDR

CRUDE OIL

GOLD

N225

HANG SENG

Jim Rogers Says He's `Short' Emerging Market, Nasdaq Stocks: Video

Feb. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, talks about his investment strategy for global stocks and commodities. Gold advanced, approaching a record, as tensions in the Middle East boosted oil prices, increasing demand for precious metals as a protector of wealth and hedge against inflation. Rogers also discusses his strategy for the U.S. dollar. He speaks in Hong Kong with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television's "On the Move Asia." (Source: Bloomberg).

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/video/67100110/

EWI: Social Mood Turns Negative: Markets Will Soon Follow, Robert Prechter Says

From the Mid-East to the American Midwest, constituents are rising up in protest against the government. Not all these events are specifically linked but they do reflect a broader shift in human psychology that will have major ramifications on society, from politics to the markets. At least that's what Robert Prechter, the foremost follower and evangelist of the Elliott Wave Principle believes.

What's an Elliott Wave?

"The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how groups of people behave. It reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific and measurable patterns," according to Prechter's website. In this case, we're witnessing "a change towards a negative social mood," says Prechter. This shift has already manifested itself in a top in emerging markets, Prechter tells Aaron and Henry in this accompanying video.

Source Video:
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/social-mood-turns-negative-markets-will-soon-follow-robert-prechter-says-535967.html;_ylt=AptJoa8c326NsYLZX2PNMlO7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTFhZDI5Nm9tBHBvcwM5BHNlYwNzcGVjaWFsRmVhdHVyZXMEc2xrA21hcmtldHN0b2ZvbA--?tickers=eem,fxi,udn,uup,^dji,^gspc,tbt

BOB PRECHTER: We're Still In A Massive Bear Market And Stocks Will Crash To New Lows

Investors have gotten wildly bullish of late, as the bull market that started in early 2009 keeps driving stocks to new highs. But the pigs are about to get slaughtered, says Bob Prechter, president of Elliott Wave International and editor of the Elliott Wave Theorist.

Prechter still thinks the new bull market is just a cyclical "retracement" of some of the bear market losses that we've had since the market crashed in 2008. Prechter expected this retracement to drive stocks 50% above the market lows, but stocks have since soared 30% higher than than he expected. So when the day of reckoning comes, Prechter thinks, it will be even more startling. And Prechter still thinks that stocks will eventually crash to new bear-market lows (read: below 6,800 on the DOW).

What makes Prechter think this day of reckoning may come sooner rather than later?

Source Video:
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/bob-prechter-we%27re-still-in-a-massive-bear-market-and-stocks-will-crash-to-new-lows-535963.html;_ylt=Ar_X0_1f7AmK6zqQHKSGwOFl7ot4;_ylu=X3oDMTEycWsyMWFyBHBvcwM5BHNlYwNhcnRpY2xlBHNsawNib2JwcmVjaHRlcnc-?tickers=^dji,^gspc,spy,^ixic,qqqq,gld

Monday, February 28, 2011

Six Reasons Why the Stocks Bull Market Could Keep Charging

Louis Basenese writes: After the stock market sold off this past Tuesday, it’s time to address a question that I keep getting asked:

Is the market overdue for a correction?

You don’t need to be Sherlock Holmes to figure out what the mainstream financial press wants us to believe.

    * Negativity Alert #1: Headlines abound, touting the fact that the S&P 500 index has already doubled from the 2009 lows. Oh, and that’s the quickest double on record since 1936, they add.
    * Negativity Alert #2: In addition, Bloomberg reports that over the last 120 days, we’ve enjoyed the fewest 1% pullbacks (14) ever for a market that’s risen by more than 30%.

Based on these stats, the pundits would like us to believe that this bull market is unlike any we’ve ever seen – and is ready for a retreat. But that’s a lie, so don’t buy into it…

Why the Pundits Are Wrong About This Bull Market

If you take time to dig deeper, history indicates that stocks could run higher still. Consider, for example:

    * Short-Term Performance: Market historian John Harris identified nine earlier stock market rallies just like this one. Each one lasted over 120 days, with gains between 25% and 35%, and without a 5% dip. The longest lasted 146 days. In almost every case, though, when the streaks finally ended, the bull market didn’t. On average, in fact, stocks went on to rise another 32%.
    * Intermediate-Term Performance: Based on the past six months, we’ve seen five other times in history when the market has enjoyed a similarly strong rally. In all five instances, it continued to rally for another year. And by as much 37%, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
    * Long-Term Performance: Although the current bull market surpassed the 700-day mark earlier this month, 11 other bull markets have lasted longer. Much longer. In fact, nine of the 11 prior bull markets lasted for more than 1,300 days. Do the math and it’s possible that we’re only a tad more than halfway through this bull market.
    * Valuation: Despite the impressive run-up, stocks aren’t grossly overvalued. The S&P 500 trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.7. The long-term average is 15.4 since 1930. Stocks aren’t expensive on a price-to-book ratio (P/B), either. They currently trade at a P/B of 2.2 times, compared to a long-term average of 2.44.
    * Presidential Cycles: The S&P 500 has never declined during year three of the presidential cycle. Instead, it rallies by an average of 17%. So with extra emphasis, we’re thankfully in year three of President Obama’s term.
    * “Smart” Money vs. “Dumb” Money: Institutional investors (i.e. the “smart” guys) are all about this bull market. The monthly Bank of America/Merrill Lynch Global Fund Manager survey registered its most bullish reading in its 10-year history last week. However, everyday investors (i.e. the “dumb” guys) still haven’t bought into the bullishness. Only 37% of their assets are currently invested in stocks, compared to a historical average above 50%. If you want a clear sign of a top, wait until the “dumb” money pushes all their chips into stocks.

Source: http://www.investmentu.com/2011/February/six-reasons-this-bull-market-could-keep-charging.html

by Louis Basenese , Advisory Panelist