Saturday, October 15, 2011

"Percaya Dengan Apa Yang Anda Lihat, Bukan Percaya Dengan Yang Anda Dengar"

What to Do Before the Next Crash
Executive Summary
    * Are you prepared for a 'bank holiday'? (Hint: It's not nearly as fun as it sounds)
    * Smart wealth safety strategies
    * Securing the "big four" essentials: shelter, food, fuel, and water
    * The immense advantage of cultivating a healthy mindset
    * Why the steps before a crisis are so much more valuable than those taken afterwards

READ MORE: http://www.chrismartenson.com/martensonreport/what-do-before-next-crash

Global Moving Averages Show Market Recovery In Sight 

As shown in the tables below, the key conclusions are as follows:
    * Most developed markets are again trading above their 50-day moving averages (indicating the secondary trend), including the MSCI World Index and all the major U.S. indices. It is not surprising to see markets such as Greece and Portugal bucking the trend, with Japan also an underperformer.
    * Considering the 200-day moving averages (an indicator of the primary trend), all the developed markets with the exception of New Zealand are below their averages, with Austria, Greece and Singapore more than two standard deviations in the red.

READ MORE: http://www.econmatters.com/2011/10/global-moving-averages-show-market.html

The Great Crash and Beyond
Gaithersburg, Maryland – The worst quarter for stocks since the first quarter of 2009 sent me back to the dusty archives of finance. Amid old tomes, I searched for what I might learn from the dark markets of years past. I found a collection of articles called The Great Crash and Beyond. They date from 1979, put together on the 50th anniversary of the crash of 1929. Only a handful of years before, the market fell by half (1973-74). Inside, I find writers reflecting on the mosaic of Wall Street history and the continuity of markets across the time.

READ MORE: http://dailyreckoning.com/the-great-crash-and-beyond/#ixzz1ap61Vh6V

Martin Armstrong - Lessons from ’87 Crash & What’s Coming
With continued turmoil in global markets, King World News interviewed internationally followed Martin Armstrong, Founder and Former Head of Princeton Economics International, Ltd..  Armstrong’s firm rose to be perhaps the largest multinational corporate advisor in the world.  When asked what to look for going forward, Armstrong told KWN a fascinating account of what led to the ’87 Crash, “When Volcker raised interest rates to crazy levels, the discount rate up to 17% going into 1981, a tremendous amount of capital starts coming from overseas into the United States.  So that drives the dollar up going into 1985 to a point where the (British) pound had fallen from 2.40 to par vs the dollar.”

READ MORE: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/10/14_Martin_Armstrong_-_Lessons_from_87_Crash_%26_Whats_Coming.html

Foreigners Dump $74 Billion In Treasurys In 6 Consecutive Weeks

Biggest Sequential Outflow In History
Over the weekend, we observed the perplexing sell off of $56 billion in US Treasurys courtesy of weekly disclosure in the Fed's custodial account (source: H.4.1) and speculated if this may be due to an asset rotation, under duress or otherwise, out of bonds and into stocks, to prevent the collapse of the global ponzi (because when the BRICs tell the IMF to boost its bailout capacity you know it is global).

READ MORE: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/foreigners-dump-74-billion-treasurys-6-consecutive-weeks-biggest-sequential-outflow-history
Europe's Crunch Time May Drive Market Amid Earnings Flood
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44910718

Stocks Log 10-Week High; Dow, Nasdaq Up for 2011
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44902461


Coming Up Next Week:

MONDAY: Empire state mfg survey, industrial production, Fed's Lacker and Evans speak; Earnings from Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Halliburton, Hasbro and IBM
TUESDAY: PPI, treasury international capital, housing market index, Bernanke speaks; Earnings from BofA, Coca-Cola, Goldman Sachs, J&J, Apple, Intel, CSX and Yahoo
WEDNESDAY: Weekly mortgage apps, CPI, housing starts, Fed's Rosengren speaks, oil inventories, Fed's Beige Book; Earnings from Morgan Stanley, Travelers, United Tech, AmEx, Ebay, Western Digital
THURSDAY: Jobless claims, existing home sales, Philadelphia Fed survey, leading indicators, Fed's Bullard and Kocherlakota speak, NewsCorp investor day; Earnings from AT&T, Eli Lilly, Nokia, AutoNation, Microsoft, Capital One, Chipotle and SanDisk
FRIDAY: Fed's Kocherlakota speaks, 2011 Dodd-Frank Rulemaking Deadline; Earnings from GE, McDonald's, Verizon, Honeywell and Schlumberger


Fourteen of 28 people surveyed expect corn to rise next week and 19 of 27 anticipate the same thing for soybeans.
Gold survey results: Bullish: 22 Bearish: 1 Hold: 2
Copper survey results:  Bullish: 7 Bearish: 1 Hold: 1
Corn survey results: Bullish: 14 Bearish: 9 Hold: 5
Soybean survey results: Bullish: 19 Bearish: 5 Hold: 3
Raw sugar survey results: Bullish: 7 Bearish: 4 Hold: 1
White sugar survey results: Bullish: 8 Bearish: 3 Hold: 1
White sugar premium results: Widen: 6 Narrow: 2 Neutral: 4

Friday, October 14, 2011

Laporan & Rumor Saham Indonesia 14-10 (Refresh)

Hmm.. Wall Street Terangkat Data Penjualan Ritel
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1785415/hmm-wall-street-terangkat-data-penjualan-ritel

Aksi Jual Mendera, IHSG Melemah 0,2%. net foreign sell Rp169,1 miliar
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1785320/aksi-jual-mendera-ihsg-melemah-02

Profit Taking Saham Unggulan Gerus IHSG 10 Poin 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/14/160708/1744241/6/profit-taking-saham-unggulan-gerus-ihsg-10-poin

Inilah Daftar 'Net Foreign Buy' Jumat (14/10)
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1785389/inilah-daftar-net-foreign-buy-jumat-1410

Inilah Daftar 'Net Foreign Sell' Jumat (14/10)
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1785374/inilah-daftar-net-foreign-sell-jumat-1410

INCO Bagi Dividen Interim 2011 US$100 Juta
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1785377/inco-bagi-dividen-interim-2011-us100-juta

ASGR Bagi Dividen Interim Rp12/Saham
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1785373/asgr-bagi-dividen-interim-rp12saham

GMTD akan bayar dividen Rp 38 per saham
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318574659/80024/GMTD-akan-bayar-dividen-Rp-38-per-saham-

Pasar Berspekulasi Soal Pertemuan G20
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1785362/pasar-berspekulasi-soal-pertemuan-g20

Duh! 28 Emiten Telat Sampaikan LKTT
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1785314/duh-28-emiten-telat-sampaikan-lktt

Syarat Kurang, Rights Issue MYOH Ditunda
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/14/162523/1744265/6/syarat-kurang-rights-issue-myoh-ditunda

Induk TvOne Cs Dapat Izin Pra Efektif IPO 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/14/144558/1744169/6/induk-tvone-cs-dapat-izin-pra-efektif-ipo

Antam Olah Emas dan Perak Tambang Martabe 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/14/132000/1744062/6/antam-olah-emas-dan-perak-tambang-martabe


DJ Astra International Raised To Overweight vs Neutral By HSBC. Target Cut Tp Rp 75.000 vs Rp 76.000 By HSBC.

1st session JCI on 14.10.11
3661.18(-14.20pts)(-0.38%)
(H: 3688.14 ; L: 3658.93 )
Value:    2.94T (NG 1.69T )
Volume: 2.34 B (NG 839 M  )
Foreign Nett Buy: 56 B
USD/IDR : 8865 (On Shore)
          8865 (Off Shore)

6 MARKET DRIVEN BY SECTOR
MINING.        (-0.70%)(1957.152 B )
FINANCE.    (-0.06%)(373.175 B )
MANUFACTUR(-0.33%)(221.046 B )
INFRASTRUC.  (-0.97%)(204.613 B )
PROPERTY(-0.57%)(73.882 B )
CONSUMER(-0.40%)(35.673 B )

6 NETT BUY STOCKs BY FOREIGN
BBRI.          @6549.  (103.78 B )
SMGR.      @8843.  (6.56 B )
UNTR.        @23057(4.86 B )
BMRI.          @6674.  (3.99 B )
AALI.          @18982 (3.56 B )
BDMN.        @5125.    (3.55 B )

6 NETT SELL STOCKs BY FOREIGN
TLKM.      @7219.    (33.16 B )
HRUM.      @7589.  (23.62 B )
PTBA.      @16957.  (21.63 B )
CMNP.      @1503.    (2.63 B )
BUMI.        @2171.      (2.59 B )
INCO.        @3160.      (2.34 B )

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VALUE
BBRI.          @6500.    (+0.77%)
TLKM.      @7200.  (-0.69%)
BUMI.        @2175.    (0.00%)
ADRO.      @1870.    (+0.53%)
CMNP.      @1500.    (+2.74%)
TRAM.      @790.      (0.00%)
ENRG.        @154.        (+1.31%)
BMRI.        @6600.    (-0.75%)

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VOLUME
ENRG.        @154.    (311.202 M )
ELTY.        @116.    (86.314 M )
BNBR.        @52.      (76.713 M )
DEWA.      @80.      (62.546 M )
TRAM.      @790.  (62.075 M )
APIC.          @465.  (55.072 M )
KIJA.          @168.    (52.460 M )

*DJ Bakrie & Brothers: Considering Repaying Or Restructuring $597 Mln Debt
JAKARTA (Dow Jones)--PT Bakrie & Brothers (BNBR.JK) is considering repaying or   restructuring $597 million of debt arranged by Credit Suisse in the near future, the Indonesian holding company said Friday. The company, whose business interests include plantations, telecommunications, mining and property, said it is in "continuous discussions" with related parties on the debt.

GMTD akan bayar dividen Rp 38 per saham Batas akhir perdagangan saham dengan hak dividen atau cum dividen di pasar reguler dan pasar negosiasi hingga 2 November 2011. Sementara, cum dividen di pasar tunai sampai 7 November 2011.

Beli Asing Gagal Akhiri IHSG Sesi I di Zona Hijau. net foreign buy Rp55,54 miliar.
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1785218/beli-asing-gagal-akhiri-ihsg-sesi-i-di-zona-hijau

Investor Tunggu Hasil G20, IHSG Menipis 14 Poin 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/14/113617/1743982/6/investor-tunggu-hasil-g20-ihsg-menipis-14-poin

Sesi Dua, Pilih Saham 'Second Liner'
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1785216/sesi-dua-pilih-saham-second-liner

Emisi Efek Baru Capai Rp 68,26 Triliun Hingga Oktober
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/14/114211/1743991/6/emisi-efek-baru-capai-rp-6826-triliun-hingga-oktober 


Agenda 14 Oktober CHANDRA ASRI PETROCHEMICAL (TPIA) DIVIDEND, RP 14,5 CUM, rupslb myoh 17 Oktober BANK MAYAPADA INTERNASIONAL RUPSLB, Masyarakat Energi Terbarukan Indonesia (METI) akan menyelenggarakan pertemuan para pakar dan praktisi energi terbarukan dan efisiensi energi tingkat dunia di Bali, 17-19 Oktober 2011, METRO REALTY STOCK SPLIT, RASIO 4:1 

Bloomberg: Palm Oil Gains, Set for First Weekly Advance in Four on Demand

Bloomberg: Indofood CBP Sales May Rise on Thai Floods: Standard Chartered

Bloomberg: Indonesia Bonds Head for Weekly Gain on Inflows; Rupiah Steady

Bloomberg: Bank Negara Indonesia, NWS Added to Citi’s Top Quant Buy List

Bloomberg: Emerging Stock Fund Outflows Slow on Policy Steps, Citi Says

Bloomberg: Nusantara Joins 11.7 Trillion Rupiah Port Tender, Daily Reports

Bloomberg: Indonesia to Reintroduce Stock Options Next Year, Bourse Says

Sentimen Eropa Negatif, IHSG Dibuka Turun 0,12%
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1785166/sentimen-eropa-negatif-ihsg-dibuka-turun-012

Inilah Saham-saham Berpeluang Profit Taking
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1785159/inilah-saham-saham-berpeluang-profit-taking

Raup Pinjaman Glencore, 'Speculative Buy' BNBR
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1785168/raup-pinjaman-glencore-speculative-buy-bnbr

Stagnasi Ekonomi Negara Besar Bertahan Hingga 2012
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1785190/stagnasi-ekonomi-negara-besar-bertahan-hingga-2012

IHSG 4.000-4.100, Probabilitas 70 Persen
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784988/ihsg-4000-4100-probabilitas-70-persen

Kabar Negatif dari Spanyol, IHSG Bisa Terkoreksi Lagi 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/14/072613/1743792/6/kabar-negatif-dari-spanyol-ihsg-bisa-terkoreksi-lagi

Alfamart Private Placement Minimal Rp 3.386 per Saham 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/14/101248/1743903/6/alfamart-private-placement-minimal-rp-3386-per-saham

Lippo Karawaci Siapkan Rp 600 Miliar untuk Buyback Saham 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/14/104713/1743921/6/lippo-karawaci-siapkan-rp-600-miliar-untuk-buyback-saham

Rumor suplai suku cadang terganggu menyebabkan saham ASII turun
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318564240/80001/Rumor-suplai-suku-cadang-terganggu-menyebabkan-saham-ASII-turun

Saham INDF tersokong sentimen banjir Thailand
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318564727/80003/Saham-INDF-tersokong-sentimen-banjir-Thailand

Ijin Penjamin Emisi Waterfront Securities Keluar
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1785197/ijin-penjamin-emisi-waterfront-securities-keluar

Sekuritas Asing Targetkan Saham SIMP di Rp1.800
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1785150/sekuritas-asing-targetkan-saham-simp-di-rp1800

Asing Masuk, CFIN Bakal Dikerek ke Rp650
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1785151/asing-masuk-cfin-bakal-dikerek-ke-rp650

Laba Naik 305%, Cermati Saham BRAU
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1785152/laba-naik-305-cermati-saham-brau

Minta Jatah Lebih, Glencore Bantu Bakrie US$900Jt
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1785157/minta-jatah-lebih-glencore-bantu-bakrie-us900jt

Indeks IDMA reli selama enam hari seiring penurunan CDS
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318563892/79999/Indeks-IDMA-reli-selama-enam-hari-seiring-penurunan-CDS

LPKR siapkan dana Rp 600 miliar untuk buyback saham
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318560473/79993/LPKR-siapkan-dana-Rp-600-miliar-untuk-buyback-saham

TFCO menambah kapasitas produksi fiber dan filamen
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318557599/79983/TFCO-menambah-kapasitas-produksi-fiber-dan-filamen

9:03 AM 10/14 Trades of the Day... Fundamentally: CIMB mempertahankan rating sektor perbankan pada NEUTRAL dengan top pick kami pada BMRI, BBNI dan BBKP masing-masing dengan TP Rp9400, 5200, 1200. Prediksi pertumbuhan kredit tahun 2012 kami turunkan ke 20-22% dari 23-24%, karena turunnya GDP oleh ekonomis kami dari 6.6% menjadi 6.2%. Setelah BI rate turun kemarin, rate gap negara kita menjadi lebih kecil sehingga meningkatkan resiko. Kepemilikan asing di SUN telah turun dari 36% menjadi 31% dalam beberapa bulan (vs 15-25% pada 2009-10), namun resiko cash-out masih ada. Kami menyarankan investor untuk fokus pada bank yang memiliki high earning growth. Dari regresi analysis kami melihat kecilnya korelasi antara turunnya suku bunga dengan pertumbuhan kredit, seperti yang terjadi pada 2006, 2008 dan 2009 


9:09 AM 10/14 DBS High Conviction Stock Picks - Big Caps: BBNI TP 5.000, BBRI TP 8.550, ITMG TP 49.450 (selengkapnya saya kirim lewat email)

9:14 AM 10/14 Jakarta - PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk (BRAU) dikabarkan membukukan peningkatan laba usaha sebesar 305% hingga kuartal 3-2011 menjadi US$135 juta. Naiknya volume penjualan dan ditemukannya cadangan baru menjadi faktor pendorong kenaikan laba usaha tersebut. Selain itu, BRAU dikabarkan akan membagikan dividen Rp25 per saham yang akan diumumkan pada 21 Oktober mendatang. Pada perdagangan kemarin saham BRAU ditutup naik Rp10 ke Rp460.

9:14 AM 10/14 Jakarta - Saham PT Clipan Tbk (CFIN) dikabarkan bakal dikerek bandar ke level Rp650 dalam waktu dekat. Hal ini seiring kabar akan masuknya investor strategis asing ke perseroan. Selain itu, penerbitan obligasi untuk ekspansi usaha juga menjadi sentimen positif ke saham CFIN. Pada perdagangan kemarin saham CFIN ditutup naik Rp50 ke level Rp435.

Thursday, October 13, 2011

Another Similar 2008 Chart Pattern

“He observed that human emotions collectively had major impacts on the movement of stock prices and markets in general, ultimately creating patterns that kept repeating.” - From a book on Jesse Livermore’s trading style. Without a doubt one common similarity between the current market and the fall of 2008 is heightened investor emotions. There are plenty of other similarities from bank nationalizations, a deteriorating global economy and government intervention.
 
READ MORE: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-another-similar-2008-chart-pattern

Marc Faber: Long The Dollar, But Occupy The Federal Reserve
Marc Faber, asset manager at the Gloom, Doom & Boom Report, popped in at CNBC (Clip Below) on Oct. 11 while visiting in Montreal, Canada (He is usually based in Thailand.). Faber expects volatility to continue (not necessarily mean a downside to the market), but dollar should be a long trade as whenever there's a bubble, e.g. tech bubble, housing bubble, stocks bubble, and commodities bubble, usually after the bubble bursts, there typically will be a 10-15 years of volatility before markets settle down to reignite an uptrend.

READ MORE: http://www.econmatters.com/2011/10/marc-faber-long-dollar-but-occupy.html

A Chartbook of 3 Financial Market Crises
Everybody is asking where to now with the global financial markets. I thought it was worthwhile comparing the current behavior of the financial markets with the two recent crises, namely the great financial crisis of 2008/2009 and the minor one in 2010 when the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone developed. I have charted the series starting with two months before each crisis developed and ended the series 11 months later. The respective series are as follows:
    * 2008 crisis: July 2008 to July 2009
    * 2010 crisis: February 2010 to February 2011
    * 2011 crisis: from May 2011

READ MORE: http://www.econmatters.com/2011/10/chartbook-of-3-financial-market-crises.html

Laporan & Rumor Saham Indonesia 13-10 (Refresh)

*DJ Indonesia President: Reshuffle Plan Supported By Parties In Coalition
*DJ Indonesia President: Reshuffle Will Be Announced In Next Few Days


[Dow Jones] Indonesia rupiah-denominated government bonds are higher across the board amid improving sentiment for riskier emerging-markets assets. "Domestic inflation is easing and will likely remain manageable below 5% this year. So even when after BI cut its key rate to 6.50%; it still gives a more than 150bp spread," a local trader says. He adds profit-taking may hit the long-term notes after recent gains. The five-year yield falls to 5.82% from 6.0% Wednesday, the 10-year yield is at 6.31% vs 6.52%, the 15-year yield is at 6.94% vs 6.95% and the 20-year yield is at 7.15% vs 7.26%. (andreasismar.sandiwan@dowjones.com) 

2nd session JCI on 13.10.11
3675.38(+39.45pts)(+1.08%)
(H: 3702.75 ; L: 3636.57 )
Value:    5.98T (NG 278 B )
Volume: 3.80 B (NG 166 M )
Foreign Nett Buy: 944 B !!!
USD/IDR : 8865(On Shore)
          8870(Off Shore)

6 MARKET DRIVEN BY SECTOR
MINING.          (+2.17%)(1827.929 B )      
FINANCE.      (+0.87%)(1227.753 B )
MANUFACTUR (+1.10%)(1188.225 B )
INFRASTRUC.  (+0.17%)(650.033 B )
PROPERTY.      (+0.92%)(448.985 B )
CONSUMER.      (-0.44%)(343.947 B )

6 NETT BUY STOCKs BY FOREIGN
BUMI.        @2211.    (166.20 B )
ASII.          @67127 (125.24 B )
BMRI.        @6690.  (72.38 B )    
BBNI.          @3688.  (71.48 B )
PTBA.      @17018. (68.90 B )
UNTR.      @23237 (55.27 B )

6 NETT SELL STOCKs BY FOREIGN
TLKM.      @7242.  (102.11 B )
JSMR.      @3814.    (24.13 B )
GGRM.    @58745. (14.34 B )
DOID.        @630.      (10.51 B )
CFIN.        @421.      (6.87 B )
LSIP.        @2054.  (6.66 B )

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VALUE
BUMI.        @2175.    (+1.16%)
ASII.          @67900 (+2.95%)
BMRI.        @6650.  (0.00%)
ADRO.      @1860.  (0.00%)
ENRG.      @152.      (-3.18%)
BBRI.        @6450.  (0.00%)
TLKM.      @7250.  (-1.36%)
BBKP.      @630.      (+12.50%)

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VOLUME
ENRG.      @152.  (1.404 B )
ELTY.      @116.    (737.260 M )
BNBR.      @53.    (718.010 M )
KIJA.        @170.  (487.472 M )
DEWA.      @79.    (395.238 M )
CFIN-W.  @70.    (243.485 M )
BBKP.      @630.  (238.789 M )
BUMI.        @2175 (228.857 M )

Asing Tambah Posisi, IHSG Menguat 1%. Net foreign buy Rp908,1 miliar
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784900/asing-tambah-posisi-ihsg-menguat-1

Penghijauan sembilan sektor angkat indeks sebesar 1% di sesi sore
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318496403/79927/Penghijauan-sembilan-sektor-angkat-indeks-sebesar-1-di-sesi-sore

IHSG Gagal Bertahan di Level 3.700
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/13/160825/1743487/6/ihsg-gagal-bertahan-di-level-3700

Aksi Ambil Untung Tekan Bursa Eropa
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784880/aksi-ambil-untung-tekan-bursa-eropa

Inilah Target Jangka Pendek Saham Tambang
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784852/inilah-target-jangka-pendek-saham-tambang

Target Harga Saham Astra, Semen & Infrastruktur
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784865/target-harga-saham-astra-semen-infrastruktur

Grup Ciputra Anggarkan Capex Rp2 T di 2012
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784814/grup-ciputra-anggarkan-capex-rp2-t-di-2012

Adaro Beli 35% Saham Servo Meda Sejahtera
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784768/adaro-beli-35-saham-servo-meda-sejahtera

Total Penjualan Grup Ciputra Capai Rp3,14 T
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784778/total-penjualan-grup-ciputra-capai-rp314-t

Strategi untuk BDMN, BBNI dan BJBR
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784842/strategi-untuk-bdmn-bbni-dan-bjbr

Carrefour Kejar Saham Publik ALFA Pasca Tender Offer 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/13/122318/1743190/6/carrefour-kejar-saham-publik-alfa-pasca-tender-offer

Pekan ini, ENRG mulai pasok 2,5 juta kubik gas ke PLN
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318497068/79929/Pekan-ini-ENRG-mulai-pasok-25-juta-kubik-gas-ke-PLN

TINS tengah melakukan renegosiasi harga dengan buyer Asia
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318493418/79919/TINS-tengah-melakukan-renegosiasi-harga-dengan-buyer-Asia

Credit Suisse pangkas proyeksi, saham GGRM jatuh 3,8%
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318490943/79914/Credit-Suisse-pangkas-proyeksi-saham-GGRM-jatuh-38

PT Timah in Talks With LG, Asian Buyers to Resume Tin Shipments
 Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) -- PT Timah, Indonesia’s largest tin producer, is renegotiating prices with Asian buyers including LG International Corp. as the company prepares to resume contractual shipments, according to an executive.     Timah wants buyers to agree on prices of more than $23,000 per metric ton, said Abrun Abubakar, corporate secretary at the Pangkalpinang-based company. Spot sales overseas will remain halted until the price reaches $25,000, he said by phone today. Timah joined Indonesian producers in suspending shipments from the country on Oct. 1 in a bid to reverse a rout in prices by choking off supplies to the global market.

CLSA:::: Alam Sutera (ASRI IJ) marketing sales in 9M11 reached Rp2.3tn ($258m), 92% of FY11 target of Rp2.5tn (+56% YoY). ASRI had raised this target from Rp1.75tn before. Comment: ASRI will launch its Pasar Kemis township in October, aiming to get Rp200bn pre-sales from the initial launch.  ASRI has ~1,000ha land bank in Pasar Kemis. ASRI is trading at 24% discount to company’s NAV of Rp560/sh.

Credit Suisse:::  1) STRATEGY: Risk to lag when the dust settles?
@JCI 3,636pts, CS Indonesia Universe is trading on 13.5x-11.7x 11F-12F PER on the back of 27%-15% EPS Growth, with 4-years Fibonacci trading range now 3,463pts-4,196pts. I agree with Teddy to accumulate Financial (BMRI, BBRI, then BTPN, BBNI and BBCA), Material (PTBA, ITMG, HRUM and SMGR), and Industrial (UNTR). Hold ASII as Thailand flood may have negative sentiment more than earnings downside. I continue to agree with Teddy Oetomo Indonesia is still trading at a premium to peers, combined with its relatively thin trading liquidity, the Indonesia market may continue to be exposed to the high volatility ahead given the current global financial market uncertainty. Buy on Weakness Indonesia!

JAKARTA (Dow Jones)--PT Energi Mega Persada (ENRG.JK) said Thursday that it  will start supplying 2.5 million standard cubic feet per day of gas from its Gelam TAC Block in Jambi on Sumatra island to state electricity company PLN by the end of this week. Energi Mega will sell the gas at $4.9 per million British thermal units, it said in a statement. The contract, which is for six years, also stipulates a 3% annual price increase. The agreement came amid rising demand for gas in Indonesia. PLN has been eager to lock in gas supplies to reduce its dependancy on costlier diesel and  coal.   


MARKET TALK: EUR/USD May Fall If Italian Bond Tender Results Poor

[Dow Jones] Indonesian shares are up 1.6% at 3692.682 in moderate volume midday, as foreigners continue snapping up most blue chips amid hopes the recent interest-rate cut will boost most companies' earnings, traders say. They expect the main index to find resistance at 3700. "If foreign buying continues, the main index could even easily break the important level of 3700 and may test the next resistance at 3730," says an analyst with a local securities firm. Foreigners are net buyers of IDR444 billion worth of shares so far. Among gainers, car maker Astra (ASII.JK) is up 2.3% at IDR67,450, food producer Indofood (INDF.JK) is up 5.7% at IDR5,600, while Bank Negara (BBNI.JK) is up 2.8% at IDR3,700. Profit-taking hits cigarette maker Gudang Garam (GGRM.JK), which is down 4.1% at IDR58,500. (edhi.pranasidhi@dowjones.com) 

1st session JCI on 13.10.11
3692.68(+56.75pts)(+1.56%)
(H: 3696.06 ; L: 3636.57 )
Value:    3.11T. (NG 141 B )
Volume: 521M (NG 89 M )
Foreign Nett Buy: 444 B
USD/IDR : 8920.    (On Shore)
                    8907.5 (Off Shore)

6 MARKET DRIVEN BY SECTOR
MINING.          (+2.68%)(993.460 B )
FINANCE.        (+1.50%)(637.273 B )
MANUFACTUR(+1.50%)(559.823 B )
INFRASTRUC.  (+0.13%)(292.792 B )
PROPERTY.    (+1.07%)(269.449 B )
CONSUMER.    (+0.51%)(160.575 B )

6 NETT BUY STOCKs BY FOREIGN
BUMI.      @2204.  (88.05 B )
BBRI.        @6528.  (45.90 B )
ASII.        @66716. (32.75 B )
INDF.        @5525.  (31.24 B )
UNTR.    @23188 (29.89 B )
ADRO.    @1873.    (23.53 B )
 

6 NETT SELL STOCKs BY FOREIGN
TLKM.    @7256.  (32.33 B )
GGRM.    @59064(11.60 B )
LSIP.        @2055.  (4.71 B )
DOID.      @635.      (4.06 B )
CMNP.    @1471.    (3.96 B )
ELTY.    @122.      (3.41 B )

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VALUE
BUMI.      @2250.    (+4.65%)
ASII.        @67450. (+2.27%)
ENRG.    @161.        (+2.54%)
BMRI.      @6700.    (+0.75%)
BBRI.      @6500.    (+0.77%)
ADRO.    @1880.    (+1.07%)
BBKP.    @630.        (+12.50%)
BBNI.      @3700.    (+2.77%)

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VOLUME
ENRG.    @161.    (952.415 M )
BNBR.    @54.    (544.314 M )
ELTY.    @120.  (442.392 M )
KIJA.      @174.  (333.616 M )
DEWA.    @83.    (263.240 M )
BBKP.    @630.  (164.941 M )
ENRG-W@46.    (151.635 M )
CFIN-W.  @69.    (150.340 M )

 *DJ IMF: Greater Currency Appreciation Would Help Manage Inflation
*DJ IMF: Inflation Seen Peaking In 2H 2011, Falling Gradually 2012
*DJ IMF: Any China Stimulus Should Target Consumption Not Investment
*DJ IMF: China Can Deliver More Fiscal Stimulus If Necessary
*DJ IMF: Worse Euro-Zone Turbulence Poses 'Extreme' Risk For Asia
*DJ IMF: Asia Near-Term Risks 'Tilted Decidedly To The Downside'
*DJ IMF: Resilient Domestic Demand To Continue To Buoy Asian Growth
*DJ IMF: Credit Growth Remains Elevated Across Emerging Asia
*DJ IMF: Overheating Still A Concern In China, HK, Indonesia
*DJ IMF: Asia-Pacific Inflationary Pressures Remain Elevated


REMINDER:::: 13 Oktober  BW PLANTATION DIVIDEND, RP 9 CUM, BUMI TO COMPLETE FIRST-TRANCHE REPAYMENT OF $600 MILLION OF DEBT TO CIC BY THURSDAY ,Cum Right Issue KIJA 500:219 (250)

*DJ Perusahaan Gas Target Cut To IDR3050 Vs IDR5000 By Citigroup

Bloomberg: *PALM OIL DROPS AS MUCH AS 0.6% TO 2,848 RINGGIT A METRIC TON

Bloomberg: China Export Growth Slowest Since Feb, Trade Surplus Misses Est.

CLSA:::: International Nickel Indonesia (INCO IJ) inaugurates US$410m hydro power plant in South Sulawesi. The hydro power plant is an important part of the infrastructure needed for INCO’s production expansion from 73,000 tons to 120,000 tons over the next five years. INCO plans to invest a total of US$2bn for new projects in Indonesia. Aside from nickel, INCO plans to diversify to copper, bauxite and coal. Comment: The commitment for additional investment comes as a new management team has been appointed at INCO. The plan to produce additional minerals and coal is reportedly at its existing Contract of Work site.

 *DJ Magnitude 6 Quake Strikes Off Indonesia's Bali Island -USGS
*DJ Indonesia Agency: 6.8 Richter Scale Quake, 143km Southwest Bali, No Tsunami

 CLSA::: Regulator BPMigas wants Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS IJ) to sell expensive gas. Upstream oil and gas regulator BPMigas is encouraging PGAS to buy 140mmscfd LNG from the BP Plc (BP LN) led Tangguh LNG project in Papua at US$9/mmbtu to US$10/mmbtu. BPMigas continues to urge PGAS to renegotiate their existing contracts to a market price of US$5/mmbtu to US$6/mmbtu to increase government revenues. BPMigas estimates the legacy contracts cost the government US$4bn per year in lost revenues. Comment: BPMigas’ has been calling for relegation of existing contracts since July/August this year. We have factored in the 140mmscfd LNG contract into our numbers coming onstream in 2013 at a cost of US$8/mmbtu with a distribution margin of US$2.5/mmbtu.

Pikko Group has mandated PT Sinarmas Sekuritas as a brokerage that helps conducting a tender offer for the remaining shares in PT Royal Oak Development Tbk (RODA).
In an official announcement yesterday, Pikko Land said Sinarmas Sekuritas will hold administrative tasks of the tender offer, including the settlement.
Pikko Land, founded in British Virgin Island, intends to hold the tender offer of 4.3 billion shares or 31.99% stake in Royal Oak, following a 68.01% take over.

Fundamentally:
CIMB menurunkan rating sektor mining dari OVERWEIGHT menjadi UNDERWEIGHT. Setelah koreksi 5 bulan berturut turut, nickel merupakan logam dengan kinerja terburuk di LME, dan sepertinya hal ini akan berlanjut hingga tahun depan apalagi karena global slowdown. Kami memangkas 2011-12 EPS by 5.3-53.9% pada perusahaan nickel dan memangkas ASP nickel dan target harga. Nickel akan oversupply sekitar 40k-130k ton pada 2011-12. Target harga kami sekarang adalah ANTM TP Rp1570, INCO TP Rp2950. Valuasi sektor ini menjadi 10.9 core forward PER atau 44% downside dari bottom 6.1x PER yang pernah dicapai pada 2008-09 lalu.


Bloomberg: Indonesia Cuts Guaranteed Rupiah Deposit Rate to 7% From 7.25%

Bloomberg: Rubber Futures in Tokyo Pare Earlier Gain of 1.4%

Bloomberg: Garuda Indonesia to Add 18 Planes Next Month, Kontan Reports

Bloomberg: Timah Plans to Boost Coal Output to 2 Million Tons, Kontan Says

Bloomberg: FX: SGD and MYR May Outperform USD Amid Uncertainty: Goldman

Bloomberg: Indonesia May Limit Foreign Investment in Local Mines

Bloomberg: Emerging Stocks Set for Best Six-Day Gain Since ‘09 on State Aid

Inilah Menu Saham Hari Ini
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784581/inilah-menu-saham-hari-ini

Rekomendasi Saham
IHSG Siap-siap Ikuti Penguatan Bursa Regional 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/13/072608/1742888/6/ihsg-siap-siap-ikuti-penguatan-bursa-regional

Analis: IHSG akan bergerak mixed dan telah memasuki fase overbought
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318470547/79858/Analis-IHSG-akan-bergerak-mixed-dan-telah-memasuki-fase-overbought

Target IHSG Berikutnya, 3.800-3.900
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784591/target-ihsg-berikutnya-3800-3900

Bursa Saham Terangkat Sentimen BI Rate
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784725/bursa-saham-terangkat-sentimen-bi-rate

Jangka Menegah, IHSG Terpangkas 'Double Digit'
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784608/jangka-menegah-ihsg-terpangkas-double-digit

Hasil Kinerja Sangat Baik, KRAS Menuju Rp 1500
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784724/hasil-kinerja-sangat-baik-kras-menuju-rp-1500

Sst.. MICE akan Buyback Saham
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784727/sst-mice-akan-buyback-saham

Bank Mandiri Klaim sudah Turunkan Bunga Kredit
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784728/bank-mandiri-klaim-sudah-turunkan-bunga-kredit

Saham BORN Berpotensi ke Rp1.450
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784731/saham-born-berpotensi-ke-rp1450

Pertumbuhan Kredit Bank Mandiri Melambat
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784735/pertumbuhan-kredit-bank-mandiri-melambat

Saham Eksportir Angkat Bursa Asia
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784740/saham-eksportir-angkat-bursa-asia

Prediksi suplai melonjak menekan pergerakan harga minyak
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318466348/79851/Prediksi-suplai-melonjak-menekan-pergerakan-harga-minyak

Glencore meminta saham Bumi Plc
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318465116/79848/Glencore-meminta-saham-Bumi-Plc

Harga CPO rontok, laba LSIP masih sip
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318463457/79844/Harga-CPO-rontok-laba-LSIP-masih-sip

Investor melepas valuta Asia dan masuk ke dollar AS
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318461498/79838/-Investor-melepas-valuta-Asia-dan-masuk-ke-dollar-AS

BATR kembali cari pinjaman US$ 500 juta
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318432223/79830/BATR-kembali-cari-pinjaman-US-500-juta

ELTY akan lepas saham Bakrie Toll Road sampai Rp 2 triliun
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318419607/79814/ELTY-akan-lepas-saham-Bakrie-Toll-Road-sampai-Rp-2-triliun

Harga kontrak emas kembali menanjak ke level tertinggi dua minggu
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318431479/79828/Harga-kontrak-emas-kembali-menanjak-ke-level-tertinggi-dua-minggu

Derivatives: The $600 Trillion Time Bomb That's Set to Explode

Derivatives: The $600 Trillion Time Bomb That's Set to Explode
Do you want to know the real reason banks aren't lending and the PIIGS have control of the barnyard in Europe? It's because risk in the $600 trillion derivatives market isn't evening out. To the contrary, it's growing increasingly concentrated among a select few banks, especially here in the United States. In 2009, five banks held 80% of derivatives in America. Now, just four banks hold a staggering 95.9% of U.S. derivatives, according to a recent report from the Office of the Currency Comptroller. The four banks in question: JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM), Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C), Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS).

READ MORE: http://moneymorning.com/2011/10/12/derivatives-the-600-trillion-time-bomb-thats-set-to-explode/

One of These Banks is Europe's Lehman Bros. – And We're Going to Profit From Its Collapse
Back in July, I warned you that Europe probably had its own Lehman Bros. - an unstable financial institution on the brink of a collapse. At the time, I didn't know exactly which institutions were most at risk. Now I have a pretty good idea and want to share that with you. One big firm, the Brussels-based Dexia SA, is already set to be dismantled. And based on an analysis of 50 European banks with a combined $129 billion (92 billion euros) tied up in Greek sovereign debt, I've identified two other suspect institutions: BNP Paribas SA, and Societe Generale SA (PINK: SCGLY).

READ MORE: http://moneymorning.com/2011/10/10/one-of-these-banks-is-europes-lehman-bros-and-were-going-to-profit-from-its-collapse/

7 Major Advance Warnings
As soon as we see the likelihood of major bankruptcies and defaults, we don’t wait around. We warn you immediately. We know you need time to get your money out of danger. And we also know that financial disasters don’t obey any particular clock. They can strike suddenly — especially in the stock and bond markets, where investors often start selling in anticipation of the troubles to come.

READ MORE: http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/7-major-advance-warnings-47579

Laporan & Rumor Saham Indonesia 12-10 (Refresh)

Sesi I
Investor Asing Kembali Agresif, IHSG Menguat 61 Poin 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/12/120441/1742209/6/investor-asing-kembali-agresif-ihsg-menguat-61-poin

Mantap! Sesi I, IHSG Menguat 1,7%. net foreign buy Rp298,7 miliar
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784395/mantap-sesi-i-ihsg-menguat-17

Akhir 2011, ASII Bersiap Anjlok ke Rp45.000
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784448/akhir-2011-asii-bersiap-anjlok-ke-rp45000


Strategi untuk ADRO, HRUM, BMRI & BBRI
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784424/strategi-untuk-adro-hrum-bmri-bbri

Bank Mandiri Bidik Pertumbuhan Kredit 22%
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784414/bank-mandiri-bidik-pertumbuhan-kredit-22

Barito Pacific Rencanakan Bagi Dividen
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784318/barito-pacific-rencanakan-bagi-dividen

Siap Tembus Rp560, Cermati Saham PTPP
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784315/siap-tembus-rp560-cermati-saham-ptpp

Sst.. Right Issue Bank Mandiri Naikkan BMPK
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784382/sst-right-issue-bank-mandiri-naikkan-bmpk

Masuk Tren Positif, IHSG Akhir Tahun Maksimal 3.800 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/12/134129/1742340/6/masuk-tren-positif-ihsg-akhir-tahun-maksimal-3800

BBCA bakal garap bisnis online trading di awal 2012
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318406832/79785/BBCA-bakal-garap-bisnis-online-trading-di-awal-2012

Akhir Oktober, GIAA tentukan pemenang pengadaan 18 pesawat
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318404273/79779/Akhir-Oktober-GIAA-tentukan-pemenang-pengadaan-18-pesawat

Proyek rel kereta PTBA belum bisa mendapat pinjaman
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318401726/79777/Proyek-rel-kereta-PTBA-belum-bisa-mendapat-pinjaman


Asing Net Sell Saham Rp 500 Miliar di Triwulan III-2011 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/12/110152/1742131/6/asing-net-sell-saham-rp-500-miliar-di-triwulan-iii-2011

Laris Manis, Penjualan ORI008 Tembus Rp 5 Triliun 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/12/071831/1741981/5/laris-manis-penjualan-ori008-tembus-rp-5-triliun


Bloomberg: Indonesia’s Coal Output May Grow 10%-14.5% a Year in 2011-2015

Bloomberg: Asian Stocks Pare Declines Amid Speculation Over China Buying

Bloomberg: Rupiah Declines for a Fourth Day After Bank Indonesia Cuts Rate

BORN masih memiliki Rp 498,08 miliar dari IPO
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318382400/79726/BORN-masih-memiliki-Rp-49808-miliar-dari-IPO

Lunasi utang, Tuscany siapkan opsi rights issue Apexindo
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318378800/79717/Lunasi-utang-Tuscany-siapkan-opsi-rights-issue-Apexindo

IMAS bangun 15 showroom di 2012
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318377600/79715/IMAS-bangun-15-showroom-di-2012

INCO mulai mengoperasikan PLTA Karebbe
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318325043/79690/INCO-mulai-mengoperasikan-PLTA-Karebbe

Saham produsen sawit melejit seiring rebound harga CPO
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318390209/79750/Saham-produsen-sawit-melejit-seiring-rebound-harga-CPO

Harga karet reli, saham LSIP dan UNSP pun melejit
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318390798/79753/Harga-karet-reli-saham-LSIP-dan-UNSP-pun-melejit

PT Harum Energy (HRUM) hingga kuartal III/2011 mencatatkan produksi 5,8 juta ton, naik 61,1% dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun lalu 3,6 juta ton. Dengan adanya peningkatan produsksi tersebut berdampak pada kenaikan penjualan sebesar 34,7%.Penjualan batu bara pada periode tersebut mencapai 6,2 juta ton dimana pada periode yang sama tahun lalu mencapai 4,6 juta
ton.


Agenda 12 Oktober Rups Indocitra Finance, DSSA RUPSLB, Akhir Tender Offer AIMS 

Bloomberg: RATES: Indonesia May Keep Cutting Rates, Morgan Stanley Says

BLOOMBERG: *MARCH-DELIVERY RUBBER GAINS AS MUCH AS 0.4% IN TOKYO

Bloomberg: S&P Rates Indonesia’s Global Sukuk Trust Certificates ’Bb+’

Bloomberg; Rubber Futures Extend Losses in Tokyo, Dropping as Much as 2.5%

Bloomberg: Bank Indonesia ‘Confident’ 2011 Inflation Below 5%, Warjiyo Says. *BANK INDONESIA CONFIDENT CAN STABILIZE THE MARKET, WARJIYO SAYS. *BANK INDONESIA IS `CONFIDENT' 2011 INFLATION BELOW 5%: WARJIYO. *BANK INDONESIA NOT CONCERNED ON RUPIAH AFTER RATE CUT: WARJIYO

Bloomberg; Solusi Tunas Pratama May Buy Four Tower Companies, Bisnis Says

Bloomberg: Dian Swastatika Provides $100 Million Loan to Unit, Kontan Says

Inilah Daftar Saham Pilihan Rabu (12/10)
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784192/inilah-daftar-saham-pilihan-rabu-1210

Rekomendasi Saham
IHSG Kembali Diselimuti Kelesuan
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/12/073154/1741984/6/ihsg-kembali-diselimuti-kelesuan

Ikuti Wall Street, Bursa Asia Memerah
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784326/ikuti-wall-street-bursa-asia-memerah

Sell on Strength pada Saham Penggerak IHSG!
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784198/sell-on-strength-pada-saham-penggerak-ihsg

Barito Pacific Rencanakan Bagi Dividen
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784318/barito-pacific-rencanakan-bagi-dividen

Siap Tembus Rp560, Cermati Saham PTPP
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784315/siap-tembus-rp560-cermati-saham-ptpp

Pemangkasan BI Rate Masih Perlemah Rupiah
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784171/pemangkasan-bi-rate-masih-perlemah-rupiah

Sst.. Suku Bunga Kredit BCA Berpotensi Turun
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784154/sst-suku-bunga-kredit-bca-berpotensi-turun

IHSG Naik Berikan Sentimen Positif Saham Perdana
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784141/ihsg-naik-berikan-sentimen-positif-saham-perdana

BI Rate Turun, Rupiah Murung
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784097/bi-rate-turun-rupiah-murung

Saham KIJA Terbanyak Dijual Asing Selasa (11/10)
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784081/saham-kija-terbanyak-dijual-asing-selasa-1110

Jika Tembus 3.300, IHSG Kritis ke 2.550
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1784206/jika-tembus-3300-ihsg-kritis-ke-2550

Dow. 11.416.30. -16.88. -0.15% Nasdaq. 2583.03. +16.98. +0.66% S&P 500.1195.54. +0.65. +0.05% FTSE. 5395.70. -3.30. -0.66% Dax. 5865.01. +17.73. +0.30% CAC40. 3153.52. -7.95. -0.25% Oil. 85.17. -0.24. -0.28% Gold. 1665.000 -5.800. -0.35% IDR. 8955 (souce: yahoo finance) Euro. 1.3645 TLKM. 32.96. -0.22 -0.66% Rp7379 ISAT. 26.86. -0.15 -0.56% Rp4811 BumiPLC.723.000. +3.000. +0.417% EIDO. 27.500. +0.300. +1.103% Timah. 22320. -755. -3.27%. Nickel. 18765. -675. -3.47% CPODec2801RM +8RM+0.29%$891 Corn. 645.000+40.000.+6.61% SoybeanOil.52.180. +2.070. +4.13% Wheat. 660.750.+49.250.+8.05% Coal 7Okt 121.14vs.122.54(30 Sept)

Telecommunications - Mobile [ PDF ] A muted policy tone OVERWEIGHT - Maintained - by Kelvin GOH, CFA India's draft telecom policy is perhaps less negative than feared but leaves out the key details and mechanism of implementation. We think that some of the negative proposals could also be watered down once the final policy is unveiled, expected at year-end. We maintain our OVERWEIGHT call on the regional telcos. The short-term impact of the proposal should not be severe for Idea (Axiata's Indian associate) or Bharti (SingTel's Indian associate). But there are a number of unknowns.

8:59 AM 10/12 Economic Update [ PDF ] Growth worries take centre stage - by Michelle Chia Bank Indonesia (BI)’s decision to cut its benchmark rate by 25bp to 6.50% yesterday took us and the market by surprise. BI defended its action as a pre-emptive move to cushion the domestic economy from the impact of a global slowdown amid receding concerns over inflationary pressures. We believe the latest rate cut is premature and that the current rate will stay until the year-end and in 1H2012 unless there are signs of a sharp deceleration in economic growth.

8:59 AM 10/12 BN 10/12 00:48 *INDONESIA SAID TO CONSIDER DOLLAR-DENOMINATED SALE OF SUKUK +------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ Indonesia Said to Consider U.S. Dollar-Denominated Sale of Sukuk 2011-10-12 00:51:32.818 GMT By Tanya Angerer Oct. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The Republic of Indonesia hired Citigroup Inc., HSBC Holdings Plc and Standard Chartered Plc to help it arrange a series of investor meetings in the Middle East, according to a person familiar with the matter. The meetings will start on Oct. 15 and the government may consider a sale of U.S. dollar-denominated Islamic bonds thereafter, the person said, asking not to be identified as details are private.

9:03 AM 10/12 Trades of the Day... Fundamentally: CIMB mempertahankan rating Gudang Garam (GGRM) pada OUTPERFORM namun menurunkan target harga dari Rp67800 menjadi Rp64200, berdasarkan 1x PEG. GGRM telah menaikan harga sebesar 1.7-4.9% sejak May lalu untuk mengantisipasi kenaikan harga tembakau dan cengkih. Gross margin GGRM mencapai 24% pada 1H. BI secara mengejutkan memangkas BI rate 25bp ke 6.5% sebagai langkah proactive untuk mendorong ekonomi untuk menghadapi global slowdown, didukung oleh inflasi yang terkendali. Kami percaya rate cut ini premature dan suku bunga akan bertahan hingga 1H12. Banking loan growth mulai melambat pada Sep sebesar 23.8% yoy dari 24.2% pada Aug. Cadev telah turun $10bn ke $114bn pada akhir Sep atau 6.5 bulan import covering dan investor asing mencatat net redemptio

TOP PICKS:
LSIP: 1,900-2,200. Nine-month net profit may rise by 118% to IDR1.4 trillion from IDR641 billion a year earlier due to higher sales stemming from increased average selling price and sales volume. It is now trading at a p/e ratio of 7.2X 2011 earnings and 6.5X 2012 earnings, far below the plantation p/e ratio average of 14X. 12-month target is at IDR3,600 based on a simple DCF valuation, or at a p/e ratio of only 12.7X 2012 earnings. Best buy is at any levels below IDR2,000.

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

@Closed CTA BUY NEKAD 7; Top Picks BN 8 Are Next

Closed; Target 11 October (Sesi 2).
@BUY NEKAD VII:

ASII 58.350           = +13.71%
BMRI 5.600-5.650   = +16.07%
BBRI 5.400-5.450   = +15.74%
BBNI 3.100            = +14.51%
CMNP 1.370           = +  7.29%
INDF 4.675            = +10.16%
AKRA 2.275           = +15.38%
ASRI 340               = +14.70%
BKSL 210-215        = +16.67%
MAPI 4.075/4.100   = + 9.20%
MNCN 970-980       = +13.40%
TRAM 720/730        = +7.89%

Total Gross Profit    = +154.72% +40 % + 24% = +218.72% (20 saham)
= Average +10.936%

Update After Closing 07-10:
APIC = 20%
TMPI= +20%.

Trailing stop +3%:
DKFT/CPIN/PGAS/LPCK/INDY/TBLA

REKOMENDASI CTA BUY NEKAD VII:
Saham Pilihan: 05-Okt-2011; Jam 14.00 WIB:
ASII 58.350/ BMRI 5.600-5.650/ BBRI 5.400-5.450/ BBNI 3.100/ CMNP 1.370/ PGAS 2.500/ CPIN 2.200/ INDF 4.675/ LPCK 1.520/ AKRA 2.275/APIC 350/ INDY 2.300/ ASRI 340/ BKSL 210-215/ MAPI 4.075/4.100/ TBLA 490/495/ DKFT 2.150/ MNCN 970-980/TRAM 720/730/ TMPI 115*. *06/10.


Pasang Trailing Stop diatas harga BUY (Cancel -10% Stop Loss).
Stop Loss <10% Target Profit +> 10% (Tanggal 11-12 Oktober 2011).

TRACK RECORD REKOMENDASI CTA BUY NEKAD I - VI:

The 1st Technical Analysis In Indonesia & The World (CTA Trading System): IPO SUPR (PT Solusi Tunas Pratama: 25st)

CTA Moon Cycle:
CTA Solar 24
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
low for the next three days (10-12 October). 

III.  Event Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

CTA Gann Analysis:
IPO Solusi Tunas
STRATEGY TRADING: Buy
Resist      :3.433 (Buy breakout)/3.486/3.530 (Buy Breakout)/3.589/3.602/3.638/3.729 (Buy Breakout)/3.889/4081 (Sell)
Support  :3.320 (Sell breakout)/3.280/ 3.200 (Buy)/3.085/3.000 (Buy)

Laporan & Rumor Saham Indonesia 11-10 (Refresh)

BLOOMBERG: *BUMI RESOURCES SELLS COAL TO EAST ASIAN BUYER :BUMI IJ. *BUMI RESOURCES SELLS COAL AT $133 A METRIC TON, OFFICIAL SAYS

Bloomberg: Indonesian Bonds Extend Gains on Surprise Central Bank Rate Cut

*DJ Bank Indonesia: Economic Fundamentals Remain Strong
*DJ Bank Indonesia Likely Sold $100 Mln At IDR8,945 -Dealers

*DJ Bumi Director: Funds Needed For Early Debt Repayment To China Investment Co

*DJ Bumi Director: Confident $600M Of CIC Loan Will Be Repaid This Month


BLOOMBERG: *BUMI RESOURCES SELLS COAL TO EAST ASIAN BUYER :BUMI IJ. *BUMI RESOURCES SELLS COAL AT $133 A METRIC TON, OFFICIAL SAYS

Bloomberg: *BANK INDONESIA CUTS REFERENCE RATE TO 6.50% FROM 6.75%. *INDONESIA BANKS LENDING RISE 23.8% AS OF END OF SEPT. *INDONESIA 2012 INFLATION MAY BE BELOW 5%, CENTRAL BANK SAYS.     *INDONESIAN RUPIAH 0.4% WEAKER AT 8,938 PER DOLLAR.

Bloomberg: Medco Energi Intl Sells USD 30 Million 6.05% 5-Year Bonds

1st session JCI on 11.10.11
3559.28(+108.20pts)(+3.13%)
(H: 3563.40 ; L: 3451.63 )
Value:    2.79T (NG 130 B )
Volume: 3.16 B (NG 60 M )
Foreign Nett Buy: 222 B !!!
USD/IDR : 8940 (On Shore)
               8940 (Off Shore)

6 MARKET DRIVEN BY SECTOR
FINANCE.      (+3.60%)(703.728 B )
MINING.          (+3.99%)(679.449 B )
MANUFACTUR (+3.00%)(511.089 B )
INFRASTRUC.  (+2.53%)(339.227 B )
PROPERTY.(+3.03%)(329.412 B )
CONSUMER (+1.90%)(114.793 B )

6 NETT BUY STOCKs BY FOREIGN
BBRI.      @6228 (39.56 B )
BBNI.      @3540. (36.65 B )
BMRI.    @6478 (31.74 B )
ADRO.  @1754. (30.23 B )
HRUM.  @7261.  (22.48 B )
CPIN.      @2509. (20.06 B )


6 NETT SELL STOCKs BY FOREIGN
ASII.      @66573 (16.04 B )
DOID.    @623.      (9.06 B )
PGAS.  @2636.  (8.63 B )
BUMI.    @1987.    (7.21 B )
UNVR.  @15703. (5.30 B )
KIJA.    @180.      (5.12 B )

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VALUE
BMRI.    @6500.  (+4.00%)
BBRI.    @6250.  (+3.30%)
ASII.      @66500 (+3.66%)
BUMI.    @2000.  (+4.16%)
LPCK.  @1850.    (+19.35%)
KIJA.    @186.        (+12.72%)
ADRO.  @1780.    (+6.58%)
PGAS.  @2675.  (+5.94%)

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VOLUME
KIJA.      @186.  (553.267 M )
BNBR.    @52.    (292.932 M )
ENRG.    @134.  (241.965 M )
ELTY.    @109.  (236.590 M )
BUMI.      @2000(92.280 M )
DEWA.    @74.      (87.844 M )
ASRI.      @395.  (76.983 M )
BKSL.    @245.  (72.472 M )
 

12:10 11Oct11 RTRS-BAKRIE GROUP HAS HELD TALKS WITH AT LEAST 3 OTHER PARTIES  INCLUDING VITOL, NORTHSTAR TO REFINANCE $1.35 BLN DEBT - SOURCES
12:11 11Oct11 RTRS-Coal rights, shares part of Glencore-Bakrie talks -sources

JAKARTA/SINGAPORE, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Glencore International Plc's advanced talks to refinance the Bakrie group's debt involves gaining more rights to sell coal produced by the Indonesian conglomerate and an option to buy shares in London-listed Bumi Plc , sources said on Tuesday. he Indonesian group has also held re-financing talks for its $1.35 billion debt with at least three other parties including energy trader Vitol SA and private equity firm TPG-backed Northstar, two of the sources told Reuters. Bakrie and Northstar declined to comment. Glencore and Vitol were not immediately available to comment. The talks come after lenders urged Bakrie to restructure the debt after shares of Bumi Plc fell by more than 40 percent since the loan deal, triggering manda

Lonjakan 203 saham mendorong indeks naik 3% lebih di sesi I
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318309373/79649/Lonjakan-203-saham-mendorong-indeks-naik-3-lebih-di-sesi-I

Sesi I
Melesat 3%, IHSG Mampir ke Level 3.559 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/11/120453/1741344/6/melesat-3-ihsg-mampir-ke-level-3559

Hang Seng Pacu IHSG Sesi I Berakhir Naik 3,15%. Net foreign buy Rp221,53 miliar.
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783974/hang-seng-pacu-ihsg-sesi-i-berakhir-naik-315

Sesi Dua : Cermati Saham Berfundamental Positif
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783972/sesi-dua-cermati-saham-berfundamental-positif

Inilah Saham-saham Blue Chip yang Bakal Menguat
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783940/inilah-saham-saham-blue-chip-yang-bakal-menguat

Bersiap akuisisi tambang batubara, saham ANTM melaju
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318303763/79633/Bersiap-akuisisi-tambang-batubara-saham-ANTM-melaju-

Saham PTBA mencatatkan kenaikan tertinggi dalam dua tahun terakhir
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318303228/79632/Saham-PTBA-mencatatkan-kenaikan-tertinggi-dalam-dua-tahun-terakhir

Visi Media Targetkan IPO November 2011
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783962/visi-media-targetkan-ipo-november-2011

BEI: Reshuffle Kabinet tak Pengaruhi Pasar
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783959/bei-reshuffle-kabinet-tak-pengaruhi-pasar

SUPR Rencana Akuisisi 3-4 Perusahaan
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783957/supr-rencana-akuisisi-3-4-perusahaan

Pemerintah China Borong Saham Bank, Indeks Melesat
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783956/pemerintah-china-borong-saham-bank-indeks-melesat

BEI Bakal Kedatangan 3 Calon Emiten Lagi
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783950/bei-bakal-kedatangan-3-calon-emiten-lagi

Indeks IDMA kembali bergerak mendekati level harga tertingginya
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318302456/79627/Indeks-IDMA-kembali-bergerak-mendekati-level-harga-tertingginya
 

DJ BUMI Target Cut To IDR 1.400 vs IDR 2.700 By Goldman Sachs. ASII target cut to IDR 55.250 vs IDR 63.000. ITMG target cut to IDR 41.000 vs IDR 54.000; ITMG Cut to Neutral vs Buy by GS. PTBA target cut to IDR 15.500 vs IDR 20.900.

Bloomberg: Timah Preparing to Resume Tin Exports, President Dierctor Says. *TIMAH TO RESUME SHIPMENTS WITH TIN AT $23,000/TON, USMAN SAYS. *TIMAH SAYS TIN PRODUCERS MUST GUARD AGAINST `OVERSUPPLY'

BLOOMBERG: *ITOCHU PLANS TO EXPAND INDONESIA RUBBER OUTPUT FROM THIS YEAR

Macquarie INDY:::: § Outperform maintained. INDY’s valuation has become increasingly attractive given recent share price weakness, now trading on FY12E PER of 4.7x – the cheapest in the sector, noting our earnings estimates are 21% above 2012consensus. We note INDY’s 46% stake in Kideco makes up 75% of our valuation and we think it is being overlooked given current valuations. 
 

11 Oktober  METROPOLITAN LAND DIVIDEND, CUM,  BI Rate
12 Oktober  Rups Indocitra Finance, DSSA RUPSLB,  MYRX RUPSLB


Bloomberg: Bukit Asam Shares Advance Most in Two Years in Jakarta Trading

Bloomberg: Asian Stocks Surge as Commodities Rise, Euro Concerns Ease

Bloomberg: Palm Oil Prices Unlikely to Rebound in Near-Term, HwangDBS Says

Bloomberg: Ace Hardware Indonesia Rated New Sell at UBS; PT 3,450 Rupiah

Bloomberg: Garuda System Failure Causes Flight Delays: Jakarta Globe Link

Bloomberg: Pembangunan May Seek 250 Billion Rupiah of Funding, Kontan Says

Bloomberg: STX to Expand Indonesia Coal Output to 5 Million Tons a Year

Bloomberg: Rubber in Tokyo Climbs as Much as 3.2% to 323.5 Yen a Kilogram

Bloomberg: Adhi Plans 800 Billion Rupiah Rights Offer in 2012, Daily Says


JP Morgan PTBA::: Maintain OW with new Jun-12 SOTP PT of Rp22,500: Our SOTP model suggests a Rp28,700 fair value, implying 105% upside from the current price. However, we recognize that challenging market conditions make it difficult to achieve theoretical fair value, which implies 15x FY12E P/E. In
previous weak market conditions in 1H06 and 1H07 (not as severe as in
FY08), we have seen the multiple rerate back to the average of 12x within 6-
9 months. A 12x multiple equates to a PT of Rp22,500. Risks: Execution
risk, such as project delays, and a decline in coal price.

Gairah Regional Topang IHSG Dibuka Naik 1,71%
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783924/gairah-regional-topang-ihsg-dibuka-naik-171

IHSG Melaju 60 Poin Ikuti Tren Positif Bursa Asia 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/11/093616/1741182/6/ihsg-melaju-60-poin-ikuti-tren-positif-bursa-asia

Rekomendasi Saham
IHSG Siap Ikuti Penguatan Bursa Regional
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/11/072013/1741112/6/ihsg-siap-ikuti-penguatan-bursa-regional

Solusi Tunas Pratama Listing Perdana Hari Ini
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783919/solusi-tunas-pratama-listing-perdana-hari-ini

Saham Perdana Solusi Tunas Menanjak ke Rp 3.700 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/11/094048/1741188/6/saham-perdana-solusi-tunas-menanjak-ke-rp-3700

Inilah Menu Saham Pilihan Selasa (11/10)
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783777/inilah-menu-saham-pilihan-selasa-1110

IHSG Bisa Naik, Tapi Terancam Longsor
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783750/ihsg-bisa-naik-tapi-terancam-longsor

Pefindo Tetapkan Rating 'AA+' untuk Indosat
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783920/pefindo-tetapkan-rating-aa-untuk-indosat

DSSA Suntik Anak Usaha US$100 Juta
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783915/dssa-suntik-anak-usaha-us100-juta

Goldman Sachs Upgrade Harga BBTN ke Rp1.750
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783903/goldman-sachs-upgrade-harga-bbtn-ke-rp1750

Ayo Beli, Saham GDST Berpotensi Menuju Rp250
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783902/ayo-beli-saham-gdst-berpotensi-menuju-rp250

Saham BIPI Tengah Diburu Fund Manager?
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783901/saham-bipi-tengah-diburu-fund-manager

Ciptadana akan Tangani IPO Sektor Infrastruktur
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783744/ciptadana-akan-tangani-ipo-sektor-infrastruktur

Saham Batu Bara Menggiurkan
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783746/saham-batu-bara-menggiurkan

Sentimen Positif Eropa Amankan Wall Street
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783900/sentimen-positif-eropa-amankan-wall-street

Eksportir dan Teknologi Angkat Bursa Asia
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783897/eksportir-dan-teknologi-angkat-bursa-asia

Empat emiten antri izin emisi obligasi
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318296941/79616/Empat-emiten-antri-izin-emisi-obligasi

CTRA mulai berbisnis rumah sakit
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318293680/79611/CTRA-mulai-berbisnis-rumah-sakit

Genjot kepemilikan saham publik, POOL berencana stock split
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318254012/79593/Genjot-kepemilikan-saham-publik-POOL-berencana-stock-split

Berencana IPO, Prima Java cari underwriter lagi
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318246425/79587/Berencana-IPO-Prima-Java-cari-underwriter-lagi

Garap proyek pembangkit listrik, PTPP cari pinjaman Rp 250 miliar
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318237801/79576/Garap-proyek-pembangkit-listrik-PTPP-cari-pinjaman-Rp-250-miliar

Indo Straits raih kontrak angkut batubara senilai US$ 2,25 juta
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318236494/79572/Indo-Straits-raih-kontrak-angkut-batubara-senilai-US-225-juta


[Dow Jones] Short-selling in the Hong Kong stock market on Monday comprised 8.3% of the total volume, tapering off from double-digit levels amid the recent market selloff--this indicates bears may be deterred by the HSI's 9.0% rally in the last three sessions, its largest three-day point and percentage gains since June 2009. Total short-selling volume was HK$5.02 billion, led by China Overseas Land (0688.HK) with HK$292.28 million, then China Mobile (0941.HK) with HK$249.86 million and HSBC (0005.HK) with HK$227.66 million. Tencent (0700.HK) and SHK Properties (0016.HK) rounded out the top five, with HK$207.88 million and HK$176.06 million respectively. (robert.li@dowjones.com)

 [Dow Jones] The HSI is likely to rise, tracking gains in regional markets on hopes that European leaders can piece together a bailout package for Greece and limit fallout in the region's banking sector, says UOB KayHian sales director Steven Leung. News Central Huijin Investment, an investment arm of China's sovereign-wealth fund, bought shares in four major Chinese commercial banks on the Shanghai market is likely to support H-share banks today, Leung says. "I think the index could test 18,000-18,200 today, supported by the expected sharp gains in China banks after Huijin's move." But China commodity stocks are likely to underperform the broader market, after news China will extend an experimental tax on oil and gas to the entire nation taxing the resources sector between 5% and 10% starting Nov. 1, he adds. The HSI ended up 0.02% at 17,711.06 Monday. (susanna.tai@dowjones.com)

--Japan August current account surplus Y407.5 billion, against expected surplus of Y446.9 billion.
--Rise in commodity prices and sluggish export growth result in trade deficit.
--Strong yen likely to further dent Japanese exports.

[Dow Jones] The EUR is likely to resume falling in the near term because its gains on Monday are just position adjustments and there are still many problems left unsolved in European debt, says Barclays Capital chief Japan strategist Masafumi Yamamoto. Though Germany and France promised to deliver a plan to stem the debt problems, "we haven't had any details on issues relating to the second rescue package to Greece and fund injections to European banks. We've also had a meeting of Eurozone leaders delayed," he adds. For now, investors will pay attention to Slovakia's vote later in the global day on expanding the EFSF, and it may trigger "a big euro fall" if lawmakers there are unable to reach an agreement easily, Yamamoto says. The EUR/USD is last at 1.3626. (takashi.mochizuki@dowjones.com)

Dow Jones] LME base metals are mostly lower with zinc the only exception. Some analysts remain uncertain on the near-term outlook for base metals. LME 3-month copper is off its early lows after falling 0.7% to $7,438/ton. BNP Paribas senior metals strategist Stephen Briggs says copper has been, and remains, far more supply constrained than most metals; "nevertheless, we doubt the copper price will stay near $7,500/ton for long." He adds either current turbulence is a precursor to a serious slowdown in world economic growth, in which case copper may fall further, or the global economy will at least muddle through, in which case copper could recover much lost ground. LME 3-month copper is at $7,461.75/ton, down $32.25, aluminum is at $2,249/ton, down $9, lead is at $2,004.50/ton, down 50 cents, nickel is at $19,321/ton, down $59, while zinc is at $1,955/ton, up $5 from its previous close. (arpan.mukherjee@dowjones.com)