Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Daily Commodities Market Recap and Technical Analysis

March 11 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell for a second day amid speculation a government report today will show U.S. inventories gained as demand weakened.

The Energy Department may say supplies rose 250,000 barrels last week, according to the median of 14 analyst responses in a Bloomberg News survey. China, the world’s second-biggest energy user, cut net crude-oil imports to the lowest in at least two years in February as a slowing economy caused refiners to reduce purchases.

Crude oil for April delivery fell as much as 66 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $45.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, trading for $45.34 at 10:51 a.m. London time. Prices are up 1.6 percent so far this year.

Gold rose for the first day this week in London as some investors and manufacturers bought the metal after its slump to a one-month low. Silver also advanced.

Gold dropped 4.4 percent in the past two days and yesterday fell to $891.33 an ounce, the lowest since Feb. 9. Assets in the ETFS Physical Gold fund traded on European stock exchanges climbed 0.3 percent to a record 2.37 million ounces yesterday, according to figures from its manager ETF Securities Ltd.

Gold for immediate delivery climbed $5.29, or 0.6 percent, to $903.44 an ounce at 9:11 a.m. local time.

TRADING THE PRECIOUS METALS & FOOD

Crude palm oil prices are likely to rise to MYR2,200 a metric ton by June on falling inventories, slower growth in production and strong demand from East Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea, a senior industry executive and analyst said Tuesday.

August gold closed lower on Monday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 672.80 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 682.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 666.80 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.

July silver closed slightly lower on Monday as it consolidates some of last week's rally but remains above trendline resistance crossing near 13.673. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends last week's rally, April's high crossing at 14.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 13.252 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.

July copper closed higher on Monday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 343.87 confirming that a low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the reaction high crossing at 369.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 334.00 would temper the near- term friendly outlook.

July cocoa closed lower on Monday as it extended last week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this Monday's decline, May's low crossing at 17.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 19.11 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.

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