Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil retreats mildly after hitting as high as 62.26. While some consolidation could be seen, short term outlook will remain bullish as long as 56.07 support holds Current rally should extend further towards 55 weeks EMA (now at 67.30). On the downside, though, below 56.07 support will indicate that a short term top is at least formed and should bring deeper decline to retest lower channel support at 49.01 again.
In the bigger picture, the possible five wave structure of the rise from 33.2 and the sustained trading above 55 days EMA is consistent with the view that fall from 147.27 has completed at 33.2. Outlook will now remain bullish as long as 43.83 support holds and crude oil is set to take on next key resistance of 55 weeks EMA at 67.28 and 55 months EMA at 68.66. Upside should be limited there, at least initially. Nevertheless, in case of a strong break, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77.
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