Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
With an intraday top in place at 62.27, crude oil's retreat from there might continues further but after all, downside is expected to be contained above 56.07 support and bring rally resumption. Above 62.26 will target 55 weeks EMA (now at 67.33). However, considering bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI, break of 56.07 will indicate that a short term top is formed and deeper decline could then be seen to test channel support at 49.29.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 33.2 is still in progress with crude oil staying well inside rising channel and above 55 days EMA. There is no sign of topping yet and such rally is still in favor to continue. Nevertheless, the main question remains on whether such rebound is resuming the long term up trend or is it merely correction to the fall from 147.27. In any case, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as crude oil stays above channel support and further rally to 55 weeks EMA at 67.33 and 55 months EMA at 68.85 is still in favor even in case of pull back. However, note that failure to sustain above the mentioned EMAs, followed by break of the channel support, will suggest that rise from 33.2 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for a retest of 33.2 low.
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