Friday, May 1, 2009

Daily Technical Analysis Forex/Cross/DJIA/Gold

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank
EURUSD

Comment: Trapped at the 26-day moving average, between the top of the 'cloud' and the top of the 'flag'. Hopefully we will get a weekly close above 1.3400 to add to upside pressure. Note similar patterns can be seen in a series of major currencies.
Strategy: Buy at 1.3365, adding to 1.3200; stop well below 1.3090. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.3350 for 1.3400 short term and 1.3600 further out
Direction of Trade: →↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.3219 " 1.3275
1.319 1.33
1.312 1.3342
1.3090* 1.3385/1.3400*
1.2964 1.352
GBPUSD
Comment: Holding above the 9 and 26-day moving averages but struggling ahead of the psychological 1.5000 area. We remind that only a weekly close above 1.5000 will give Cable a fighting chance for a decent rally.
Strategy: Buy at 1.4780; stop well below 1.4500. Short term target 1.4945, eventually 1.5050.irection of Trade: →↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.4748 " 1.4822
1.462 1.495
1.458 1.496
1.4500* 1.504
1.444 1.5069*
USDJPY
Comment: Bouncing beyond what we had allowed for but appears to be stalling against the 99.00 area as it did in February and March. Moving averages suggest a short so conflicting messages and we may end up trading between 96.00 and 99.00 for longer than we had originally thought.
Strategy: Attempt shorts at 98.80; stop above 99.85. Short term target 97.15.
Direction of Trade: →Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
98.52 " 99.17
97.9 99.69*
97.15 99.77
96.00* 100
95.63* 100.74
EURJPY
Comment: Mixed Technical picture and likely to continue difficult with random moves within the big band established since October last year. Allow for more random moves roughly between 126.00 and 133.00 for another week or two.
Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny longs at 131.25; stop/reverse below 130.00 for 128.00. Cover longs at 132.55/133.00 and watch for signs of topping.
Direction of Trade: →Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
130.30 " 131.52
129.35 132.03
128.9 132.55
126.65 134
126 134.33
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by ecPulse.com
EURO

The Euro versus the Dollar pair declined as expected in a correction wave yet was limited by the 50% Fibonacci correction. We currently expect the pair to rebound to the upside in an attempt to pressure the key resistance for the upside channel at 1.3385 where a breach of this level will open the way for the pair to 1.3585 as an initial target. Yet in order for this to occur, the 1.3125 level must remain intact on the intraday basis.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.2800 and the key resistance at 1.3585.The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets at 1.2120
Support: 1.3175, 1.3120, 1.3050, 1.3010, 1.2990
Resistance: 1.3295, 1.3320, 1.3385, 1.3445, 1.3525
Recommendation According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.3295 with targets at 1.3385 and 1.3445 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.3175
GBP
The Cable versus Dollar corrected to the downside to the 61.8% correction before rebounding to the upside where we still expect further inclines to reach the key resistance for the ascending channel at 1.4965 in n attempt to breach it and target 1.5070 and 1.5300 respectively. This incline remains as far as 1.4705 remains intact.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.4240 and the key resistance at 1.5400.The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.5270 remains intact with targets at 1.3440
Support: 1.4735, 1.4705, 1.4655, 1.4625, 1.4590
Resistance: 1.4845, 1.4885, 1.4965, 1.5030, 1.5070
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.4735 with targets at 1.4845 and 1.4965 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.4625
JPY
The USD/JPY pair gradually inclined within an ascending channel yet we expect a decline on the intraday basis towards 98.00 to gather bullish momentum before rebounding back to the upside reaching targets at 99.20 and 100.70 respectively before heading towards the short term target at 103.00. This incline remains as far as 95.85 is intact.The trading range for today is among the key support at 95.85 and the key resistance at 100.70The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60
Support: 98.30, 98.00, 97.80, 97.40, 96.95
Resistance: 99.20, 99.70, 100.70, 101.00, 101.45
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 98.00 with targets at 99.20 and stop loss with four hour closing below 96.95
CHF
After undergoing an upside correction to the 50% level yesterday, the Dollar versus Swissy is attempting to trade below the key support at 1.1370 as we mentioned yesterday to maintain direction to the downside unless the 1.1460 level is breach. We expect further decline targeting 1.1270 and 1.1165 on the intraday basis.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0975 and the key resistance at 1.1800.The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact with targets at 1.2245
Support: 1.1370, 1.1305, 1.1270, 1.1205, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1410, 1.1460, 1.1520, 1.1585, 1.1645
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.1370 with targets at 1.1270 and stop loss with four hour closing above 1.1460
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 8088.80, 8046.37, 8010.50 and 7987.50(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 7959.37, where correction also can be. Then follows 7922.80. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 7900.20. Continuation will bring 7871.40.Today's resistance: - 8280.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8303.90, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8336.20, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8370.00. Continuation would bring 8398.62.
FXtechtrade
Comex Gold (GC)
As discussed before, the three wave structure of Gold's rise from 865 to 919.7 and the failure to take out falling trend line resistance argue that correction from 1007.7 is still in progress. Intraday bias remains mildly on the downside for the moment for 865 support and below. Nevertheless, above 919.70 will revive the case that correction from 1007.7 has completed and will target 967.8 resistance for confirmation.In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 1007.7 to 865, is consistent with the bullish case. That is, rise from 681 is resumption of long term up trend after triangle consolidation from 1033.9 completed at 681. Retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone should now be seen. Decisive break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. On the downside, while another fall cannot be ruled out for the moment, we'll hold on to the bullish case as long as 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.8 ) remains intact.However, note that sustained break of 801.50 cluster support will dampen the above preferred view. This will suggest that rise from 681 is not resuming the long term up trend but is merely part of the consolidation from 1033.9. In other words, fall from 1007.7 is part of the consolidation too and could then target 681 low before completion.

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