Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Jun 18 09 07:06 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil's consolidation from 73.23 is still in progress. Intraday outlook remains neutral at this point and some more consolidation might be seen. But note that there is no sign of reversal as long as 66.79 support holds. That is, recent rally is still in progress. Above 73.23 will bring rally resumption to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next. On the downside, however, bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Break of 66.79 support will argue that a short term top is at least formed and rise from 43.83 has likely completed. In such case, deeper decline should be seen to 56.07/60.08 support zone.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of topping in crude oil yet and current rally might extend further to above 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. But after all, crude oil is clearly overbought in daily RSI and some consolidations should be around the corner. Strong resistance will likely be seen between 76.77 fibo resistance and next key level of 90, (50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.23) and at least bring some pull back.

Meanwhile, in case of a correction, focus will turn 54.66 key medium term resistance turned support. As long as it holds, we'd continue to favor the rally from 33.20 to continue further. But a break of 54.66 will be an important indication that whole rise from 33.2 low has completed and should turn outlook bearish then.