Gold rose further to as high as 992.1 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias is neutral this week as some consolidation could be seen. But after all, as long as channel support (now at 951.0) holds, recent rally is still in favor to continue. Above 992.1 will target 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone. However, note that break of the channel will argue that rise from 865.6 has completed and will turn focus to 915.2 support for confirmation.
In the bigger picture, rise from 865 is tentatively treated as resumption of whole rally from 681, as well as resumption of long term up trend. Firm break break of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone will confirm this case and target 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 next. However, note that a break below 915.2 support will indicate that rise from 865 has completed. More importantly, this will suggest that consolidation from 1007.7 is still in progress for a test of 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) before completion. Hence, the bullish view will be delayed in such case.
In the long term picture, medium term consolidation from 1033.9 should have completed as an expanding triangle to 681 already. Rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 253 and will target 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 after taking out 1033.9 high. However, a break below mentioned 801.5 cluster support will argue that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will delay the long term bullish case.
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