Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

Written by Oil N' Gold | Mon Jul 06 09 08:15 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil's decline continues today, reaches as low as 63.40 so far and is set to test 55 days EMA at 63.35. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 65.90 minor resistance holds. Further fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 43.83 to 73.38 at 62.09 next. Break will then target key resistance turned support at 54.66. On the upside, above 65.90 will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring consolidation. But recovery should be limited well below 73.38 and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, the case of reversal continues to build up with daily MACD staying below signal line and last week's doubt top reversal pattern (73.23, 73.38). Focus will now turn to channel support at 58.80. Sustained break there will indicate that whole rise from 33.2 has completed at 73.83, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. The three wave structure of the rise from 33.2 to 73.83 will in turn indicate that it's part of wide range consolidation only and hence, will open up the bearish case for a retest of 33.2 low. On the upside, break of 73.83 is now needed to confirm that rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Otherwise, risks remain on the downside.