Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
At this point, intraday bias in crude oil remains on the downside as long as 61.57 minor resistance holds. As mentioned before, sustained break of channel support (now at 60.42) will confirm that whole medium term rise from 33.2 has completed at 73.83 already. In such case, deeper decline should be seen to key key resistance turned support at 54.66 next. On the upside, above 61.57 minor resistance will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited by double top neckline at 66.2 bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, the case of reversal continues to build up with daily MACD staying below signal line and recent doubt top reversal pattern (73.23, 73.38). Focus will now turn to channel support at 59.95. Sustained break there will indicate that whole rise from 33.2 has completed at 73.83, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. The three wave structure of the rise from 33.2 to 73.83 will in turn indicate that it's part of wide range consolidation only and hence, will open up the bearish case for a retest of 33.2 low. On the upside, break of 73.83 is now needed to confirm that rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Otherwise, risks remain on the downside.
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