Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

Written by Oil N' Gold | Mon Jul 20 09 06:48 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil's rally continues today and breaks 38.2% retracement of 73.38 to 58.32 at 64.07 as expected. A this point, intraday bias remains on the upside and further rise could still be seen 50% retracement at 65.86. But upside is expected to be limited by 66.25 double top neckline to complete the correction from 58.32 and bring fall resumption. Below 63.28 will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 58.32 low first.

In the bigger picture, as discussed before, whole medium term rebound from 33.2 is treated as completed with three waves up to 73.83, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. In addition, Crude oil failed to sustain above both 55 weeks and 55 months EMA. Hence, such rise from 33.2 to 73.83 is treated as a correction in the larger fall from 147.24 only. Fall from 73.83 is expected to resume after current recovery and should extend below 33.2 low. We'll maintain this bearish view as long as 66.25 support turned resistance holds.

However, note that so far, crude oil fails to sustain below medium term trend line support yet. A break above 66.25 will suggest that price actions from 73.83 might be developing into sideway consolidation only, rather than a reversal. In such case, whole medium term rise from 33.2 might still be in progress and focus will then be on whether crude oil can take out 73.83 high decisively.