Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

Crude inventories fell last week, though gasoline supplies grew yet again, the government said Wednesday. Crude inventories fell by 1.8 million barrels, or 0.5 percent, to 342.7 million barrels, which is 16 percent above year-ago levels, the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report.
Analysts had expected a drop of 2 million barrels for the week ended July 17, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.
Gasoline inventories rose by 800,000 barrels, or 0.4 percent, to 215.4 million barrels. Ino.com

Written by Oil N' Gold | Wed Jul 22 09 05:57 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil's rebound from 58.32 lost momentum after touching 50% retracement of 73.38 to 58.32 at 65.86 and intraday bias is turned neutral with 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line. As mentioned before, such rebound is treated as a correction to fall from 73.38 only and is expected to be limited by double top neckline at 66.25 and bring fall resumption. Below 62.28 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 58.32 low first. Break there will confirm decline resumption for 54.66 support next. However, note that sustained break of 66.25 will dampen this view and open up the bullish case for a retest of 73.38 high next.

In the bigger picture, as discussed before, whole medium term rebound from 33.2 is treated as completed with three waves up to 73.83, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. In addition, Crude oil failed to sustain above both 55 weeks and 55 months EMA. Hence, such rise from 33.2 to 73.83 is treated as a correction in the larger fall from 147.24 only. Fall from 73.83 is expected to resume after current recovery and should extend below 33.2 low. We'll maintain this bearish view as long as 66.25 support turned resistance holds.

However, note that so far, crude oil fails to sustain below medium term trend line support yet. A break above 66.25 will suggest that price actions from 73.83 might be developing into sideway consolidation only, rather than a reversal. In such case, whole medium term rise from 33.2 might still be in progress and focus will then be on whether crude oil can take out 73.83 high decisively.