Gold Weekly Technical Outlook

Written by Oil N' Gold | Sat Jul 04 09 04:42 ET
Comex Gold (GC)

Gold was bounded in tight range below 938.1 last week, without making any progress. A short term bottom is in place after drawing support form 61.8% retracement of 865.5 to 992.1 at 913.9. Nevertheless, subsequent price actions are treated as consolidation to the fall from 992.1 only. Hence, while another rise cannot be ruled out, we'd expect upside to be limited by 61.8% retracement of 992.1 to 913.2 at 962 and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 913.2 will confirm decline resumption for 865 low.

In the bigger picture, favor is in the case that that fall from 992.1 is the third leg of the consolidation from 1007.7, which is not completed yet. Break of 913.9 fibo support will target a test of 865 support before completing the whole consolidation. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) and bring resumption of rise from 681. On the upside, though, above 992.1 will revive the case that rise from 865 is resumption of up trend rather than part of sideway consolidation. In such case, retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance should be seen next.

In the long term picture, medium term consolidation from 1033.9 should have completed as an expanding triangle to 681 already. Rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 253 and will target 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 after taking out 1033.9 high. However, a break below mentioned 801.5 cluster support will argue that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will delay the long term bullish case.