IMM Positioning
Speculative investors reduce long EUR/USD exposure
The latest IMM data cover the week from 11 to 18 August.
Speculative investors scaled back their net long EUR/USD positions bringing total EUR net longs down to just 4.5 percent of open interest. The reduction in EUR longs likely reflects profit taking as equity markets started to turn sour by 14 August while EUR/USD had broken temporarily above 1.43. The recent move higher in EUR/USD, however, suggests that speculative interest has returned.While long EUR positions were scaled back, speculative investors rebuilt net long CHF positions. This has been a profitable strategy as USD/CHF has moved lower in recent weeks, which might indicate that the failure of EUR/CHF to break meaningfully higher despite strong performance in risky assets has stopped speculative investors from considering CHF shorts.
Long positions in AUD and NZD have been scaled back slightly, but remain very large – not least compared with open interest in the two currencies. Hence, risks remain high in AUD and NZD, as a pullback of speculative interest could trigger significant flows.Short positions in GBP have been reduced, but Sterling remains the single currency covered in the IMM data where speculative investors are short against the dollar
The IMM data
The IMM data is part of the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports published by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The IMM data provides a breakdown of each Tuesday's open futures positions on the International Money Market (IMM) a division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. All of a trader's reported futures positions in a commodity are classified as commercial if the trader uses futures contracts in that particular commodity for hedging as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.3(z), 17 CFR 1.3(z). A trader may be classified as a commercial trader in some commodities and as a noncommercial trader in other commodities
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