Oil May Pass 2009 High as Contract Expires: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil futures in New York may rise to the highest this year after the September contract expires today, setting a platform for further gains, according to technical analysis from Petromatrix GmbH. October futures will become the front-month contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange from tomorrow after September futures expire. If October closes at its current level of around $73.52 a barrel, it will take oil for the month nearest delivery above this year’s highest closing and intra-day prices “WTI is now at a very critical level,” said Olivier Jakob, managing director of Zug, Switzerland-base Petromatrix. “The WTI September contract expires today and one needs to totally take it out of the radar screen as the continuous charts will move tomorrow to the October front line.”

October futures closed yesterday at $73.83 a barrel, up $2.74, or 3.9 percent, according to Bloomberg data. Front-month futures closed at a year-to-date high of $72.68 a barrel on June 11 and traded at an intra-day high of $73.38 on June 30. “If October WTI is not bought back lower than $72.68 a barrel by the close of tonight then we are looking at a break of recent highs on the continuous charts,” Jakob said.
Oil has risen 62 percent this year on record OPEC production cuts and speculation that a recovery in the global economy will spur a rebound in fuel demand.