Daily Commodity Technical Analysis Outlook

Written by Oil N' Gold

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's fall from 73.16 resumes and is now back pressing 68.02 support. As discussed before, break of 68.02 will suggests that fall from 75.0 is resuming and affirm that case that crude oil has already topped out. Further decline should then be seen towards 65.23 cluster support next (100% projection of 75.0 to 67.05 from 73.16 at 65.21). On the upside, break of 71.77 resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside and bring retest of 75.0 high instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no change in the view that rise from 33.2 is a correction to whole down trend form 147.27. Question remains on whether such rally has completed at 75.0 already and the signals are so far conflicting. On the one hand, crude oil is still trading above medium term rising trending and thus the rally is still intact. On the other hand, crude has clearly lost upside momentum as seen in bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD and RSI. We'll stay neutral and look forward to a breakout from recent range for guidance.

On the downside, note that a break of 67.05 support will indicate that fall from 75.0 is resuming. By that time, the medium term trend line should be taken out firmly and will solidify the case that rise from 33.2 has completed at 75.0. Deeper decline should then be seen in such case to 58.32 support for confirmation. On the upside, above 75.0 will indicate that rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Nevertheless, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) and bring reversal finally.

Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's choppy sideway trading continues and intraday outlook remains neutral for the moment. Some more consolidation could still be seen with risk of another fall to 983.2 support and possibly below. But downside is expected to be contained by 61.8% retracement of 931.3 to 1025.8 at 967.4 and bring rally resumption. On the upside, while another rise might be seen, it now looks like 1033.9 key resistance will hold on first attempt on loss of upside momentum and bring more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 681 is tentatively treated as resumption of long term up trend. Sustained break of 1033.9 high will confirm this case and should target 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2 next. While some pull back might be seen in near term before decisive break of 1033.9, downside should be contained well above 931.3 support and bring rally resumption. However, note that a break of 931.3 dampen the bullish view and suggest that rise from 681 has completed. This will indicate indicate that such rise is merely part of the consolidation pattern that started at 1033.9.

Comex Silver (SI)
Intraday bias in Silver remains neutral for the moment as consolidation from 17.69 is still in progress. Some more sideway trading might be seen but downside is expected to be contained by 16.06 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 13.495 to 17.69 at 16.088) and bring rally resumption. Above 17.69 will target 19.55 key resistance next. However, break of 16.06 will indicate that whole rise from 12.435 might have completed too and will bring deeper pull back to 13.495/15.185 support zone instead.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rise from 8.4 is still in progress and could probably continue towards next key resistance level at 19.55. Nevertheless, we're not seeing a clear impulsive structure from 8.4 yet and hence, we'd treat such rise as part of the long term, wide range, consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 back in Mar 08. In other words, current rise from 8.4 is expected to be limited by 19.55/21.44 resistance zone and bring at least one more medium term fall. On the downside, break of 12.435 support is needed to confirm that rise from 8.4 has completed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pullback.