How and When Will the Global Crisis End?

CNBC.COM 

I’m writing to you from Villa d’Este in Cernobbio, Italy, where I just finished moderating a panel at the annual Ambrosetti forum. Every year at this time, Ambrosetti holds a forum on the world, Europe and Italy. Since its beginnings in 1975, the forum has become widely regarded as one of the most important meetings worldwide. Prominent leaders from all walks of life discuss economic and social issues facing the world. The panel I was asked to moderate focused on world economic growth and was called “How and When Will the Crisis End,”

Many people here see continued weakness for the world economy. A majority of the audience of European business people said the recovery won't likely start until 2010, and almost 40 percent believe it won’t be until the second half of next year. The optimist of the group was University of Chicago Professor and Nobel laureate Gary Becker, who, though worried about inflation, declared "the recession is over" and believes the recovery won't be as lethargic as some others are saying.

He expects a slow recovery initially but says continued strong productivity will help the economy pick up steam and lead it out of the slump. He does not expect unemployment to reach the old peak of 10.8 percent reached in 1982.

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