Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

ONG Focus - Technical Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Oct 08 09 06:17 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil retreats sharply after rising to 7.197 and hit near term trend line resistance. With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, intraday outlook is turned neutral for the moment. Nevertheless, another rise is still mildly in favor with 68.16 support intact. Above 71.97 will bring rise resumption. Further break of 73.16 will indicate that fall from 75.0 has completed at 65.05 already. The corrective structure will in turn indicate that medium term rally is still in progress for another high above 75.0 before completion. On the downside, below 68.16 will suggest that rebound from 65.05 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Break of 65.05 will reaffirm the original bearish view that crude oil has topped out at 75.0 already and will bring fall resumption towards 58.32 key support next.

In the bigger picture, the lack of follow through selling so far dampens the bearish view that crude oil's medium term rise from 33.2 has completed at 75.0. Nevertheless, risk remains on the downside as long as 73.16 resistance holds. A break below 65.05 support will solidify the case the crude oil has topped out in medium term again. In such case, deeper fall should be seen to test on 58.32 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 33.2 to 75.0 at 59.03) first and break will target a retest of 33.2 low. However, a break of 75.0 will indicate that rise from 33.2 has resumed for 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) instead.