ONG Focus - Technical Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Nov 12 09 07:11 ET
Crude oil's choppy sideway trading is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. A break below 76.55 support will indicate that fall from 82.00 has resumed and should have a test on 38.2% retracement of 65.05 to 82 at 75.53 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 71.52. On the upside, nevertheless, above 81.06 minor resistance will signal that the sideway trading from 82.00 has completed and will bring retest of this high first.
In the bigger picture, outlook is mixed for the moment. As note before, a medium term top might be formed at 82.0 on bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD. However, the corrective look of price actions from 82.0 so far are not supporting this case. But after all, we'd slightly favor the bearish case as long as 81.06 minor resistance holds. That is, whole medium term rise has topped out at 82.0 already. Further decline should be seen to trend line support (now at 71.20) after taking out 76.55 support. Sustained trading below the trend line will add much credence to this case and target 58.32 cluster support (50% retracement of 33.2 to 82 at 57.60) for confirmation.
On the upside, however, above 81.06 will argue that price actions from 82.0 are merely consolidations only. Break of 82.0 will indicate that whole rise from 33.2 has resumed. However, as we expect such rise to conclude inside resistance zone of 76.77/90.24 (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2), focus will remain on loss of momentum and reversal signal even in case of another rise.
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Gold made another record high of 1123.4 and remains firm. Intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1097.2 minor support holds. As noted before, current rise from 931.3 is still in progress for next projection target of 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2. On the downside, though, below 1097.2 will argue that a short term top is formed with bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD. In such case, deeper decline should be seen to support zone of 1026.9 and 1072 first.
In the bigger picture, the long term up trend in Gold is still in progress. Rise from 681 would likely develop into another set of five wave sequence with first wave completed at 1007.7, second wave triangle consolidation completed at 931.3. Rise from 931.3 is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2 first and then 100% projection at 1258 next. On the downside, break of 1026.9 support will suggest that a top is formed and bring consolidation. But we'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 key support holds.
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