Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Look Ahead: Strategists See Modestly Higher 2010

By: Patti Domm Executive Editor
Stocks should make a more subdued move higher in the coming year, and the Fed is not likely to raise interest rates until at least mid-year.That is the collective view of nine major Wall Street banks, which on average forecast a 9.5 percent gain in the S&P 500 to a level of 1222 for 2010. The S&P, so far this year, has gained 24 percent, more than the Dow's 19 percent and behind the Nasdaq's 43 percent. The consensus view from the nine banks is to "underweight" or "bench mark" U.S. equities. They also expect gold at $1,213 an ounce; oil at $80 per barrel and the dollar versus the euro at a level of $1.45, slightly below where it is now. This tally is courtesy of Birinyi Associates, which combed through some 3,500 pages of 2010 outlooks and compiled the expectations of the firms. Their average outlook for the U.S. economy includes growth of 3.1 percent. The firm with the lowest growth forecast was Goldman Sachs, at 2.1 percent, and the most bullish on growth was Deutsche Bank, at 4.9 percent.

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