(Bloomberg) -- The euro’s gains against the dollar may persist, according to at least three technical indicators. Parabolic Systems, which traders use to track the strength of a trend, switched to a buy sign on June 24. The Directional Movement Index, or DMI, shows the strength of the so-called uptrend is gathering pace. The common European currency climbed 0.8 percent to $1.4100 as of 1:31 p.m. in London as China repeated its call for a global currency and stocks rose, extending the euro’s advance this week to 1.2 percent. “The technical situation has improved,” Ralf Umlauf, head of floor research at Helaba Landesbank Hessen-Thueringen in Frankfurt, said today by e-mail. Also, “as equity prices rebound, generally the euro strengthens,” he said.
The TD Combo indicator, which traces a security’s price patterns to determine whether a trend is losing momentum, signaled an advance in the euro to “marginal new highs” against the dollar, before the U.S. currency can achieve a “concerted” recovery, according to Paul Day, chief market analyst at MIG Investments SA in Neuchatel, Switzerland. “Though bearish in the medium term, a short-term push higher over the next few sessions wouldn’t surprise and would complete the TD Combo trend-exhaustion count, giving stronger conviction to the technical view that it’s the final push before a downtrend resumption,” Day wrote today in an e-mailed report.
China’s central bank renewed its call for a global currency and said the International Monetary Fund should manage part of its members’ foreign-exchange reserves. The MSCI World Index of equities advanced 0.9 percent, leaving it 0.2 percent higher in the week.
Friday, June 26, 2009
Nikkei ‘Golden Cross’ Signals Rally Is Real: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The Nikkei 225 Stock Average’s move toward a so-called “golden cross” event signals the rally in Japanese stocks may have further to go, said MU Investments Co. A golden cross, which some chartists see as a sign to buy, appears when a short-term moving average line rises over that of a longer-term average. The Nikkei 225’s 100-day moving average line is nearing the 200-day gauge as the measure rebounds from a 26-year low on March 10.
“A looming golden cross suggests we may be entering a long-term bull market,” said Hiroshi Morikawa, a senior strategist at Tokyo-based MU Investments, which oversees the equivalent of $13 billion. When the cross appears “I’ll likely be convinced a rally is sustainable and recommend being overweight in stocks.”The 100-day average fell below the 200-day line in September 2007 and formed a so-called dead cross, believed to signal the start of a long-term down trend. In the ensuing 18 months, the Nikkei plunged by more than half.
“A looming golden cross suggests we may be entering a long-term bull market,” said Hiroshi Morikawa, a senior strategist at Tokyo-based MU Investments, which oversees the equivalent of $13 billion. When the cross appears “I’ll likely be convinced a rally is sustainable and recommend being overweight in stocks.”The 100-day average fell below the 200-day line in September 2007 and formed a so-called dead cross, believed to signal the start of a long-term down trend. In the ensuing 18 months, the Nikkei plunged by more than half.
Elliot Waves: S&P Futures; 884 or 957?
S&P Futures; 884 or 957?
Daily Chart trend: Short possibilities. Main price points: 884, and 957. Looking for: Break through the 884 support. On the S&P Futures we are back with a daily chart, where we noticed that the market bounced from a red support line this week. Traders with a bearish bias should patiently wait for an 884 breakout, which should be the key to a temporary downtrend. This is contingent upon the upper, weekly trend-line and 957 highs holding.
Written by TheLFB Trade Team, © 2007-2008 LFB Services, LLC. All rights reserved.
Daily Chart trend: Short possibilities. Main price points: 884, and 957. Looking for: Break through the 884 support. On the S&P Futures we are back with a daily chart, where we noticed that the market bounced from a red support line this week. Traders with a bearish bias should patiently wait for an 884 breakout, which should be the key to a temporary downtrend. This is contingent upon the upper, weekly trend-line and 957 highs holding.
Written by TheLFB Trade Team, © 2007-2008 LFB Services, LLC. All rights reserved.
Daily Technical Analysis Forex/DJIA/Gold
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank
EURUSD
Comment: Tricky as prices remain within the 1.3800 to 1.4100 range that has held most of the time since May. We continue to feel we are preparing to break out of recent ranges, the best examples currently AUD and NZD. Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.4030; stop below 1.3800. Short term target 1.4100, then 1.4200.Direction of Trade: →↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.3982 " 1.4062
1.3888 1.4109
1.385 1.4139
1.3826 1.4178
1.38 1.423
GBPUSD
Comment: Pushing towards the apex of the 'triangle/pennant' and moving averages suggest a long position. The pound is not in the slightest bit overbought and bullish momentum is among the strongest in years. A weekly close above 1.6600 is needed to take bullish momentum back up to the very strong levels of early June.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6390/1.6300; stop below 1.6080. First target 1.6500, then 1.6600. Direction of Trade: →↗ Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.6368 " 1.6474
1.6231 1.6507
1.6209 1.6562
1.6187 1.6622
1.612 1.6664*
USDJPY
Comment: Retreating smartly from the lower edge of the Ichimoku 'cloud' to form a 'spike high' candle against the moving averages. This has added to bearish momentum and the US dollar is not oversold. Probably not today, but maybe next week, we favour a test of the pivotal 94.00 area. Strategy: Sell at 95.85/96.00; stop well above 96.65. First target 95.50, then 95.00 and more.Direction of Trade: →↘ Chart Levels:Support Resistance
95.62 " 96.07
95.5 96.58
95 96.80*
94.88 97.27*
94.44 97.65
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
Rupee : The markets are currently holding slightly bearish bias . Breaking of 48.90 on the upside would confirmation of further weakness towards 49.50 and 49.95 . On the downside 48.00 levels is holding support. Despite late monsoons if the rupee maintains bullishness day after day and breaks 48.00 then we need to reconsider bearishness. (USD/INR : 48.55)
Gold :Gold rose quite a bit after FOMC decision . The view stays neutral as of now. (Gold- $941.66). Neutral
Dollar Index :Dollar index extends the rebound from 79.56 and is set to take on 80.94. We're anticipating a break of 80.94 resistance to signal resumption of rise from 78.33, to be confirmed by break of 81.36/47 resistance zone. Further rally should be seen to next key resistance at 82.62 (38.2% retracement of 89.62 to 78.93 at 82.64). in such case.. (DI- 80.45) Bullish
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade | Jun 26 09 02:05 GMT |
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 8370.00, 8326.11 and 8280.23(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8257.46, where correction also can be. Then follows 8233.70. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8187.19. Continuation will bring 8118.68.Today's resistance: - 8505.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8533.11, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8562.26, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8597.80. Continuation would bring 8628.75.
EURUSD
Comment: Tricky as prices remain within the 1.3800 to 1.4100 range that has held most of the time since May. We continue to feel we are preparing to break out of recent ranges, the best examples currently AUD and NZD. Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.4030; stop below 1.3800. Short term target 1.4100, then 1.4200.Direction of Trade: →↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.3982 " 1.4062
1.3888 1.4109
1.385 1.4139
1.3826 1.4178
1.38 1.423
GBPUSD
Comment: Pushing towards the apex of the 'triangle/pennant' and moving averages suggest a long position. The pound is not in the slightest bit overbought and bullish momentum is among the strongest in years. A weekly close above 1.6600 is needed to take bullish momentum back up to the very strong levels of early June.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6390/1.6300; stop below 1.6080. First target 1.6500, then 1.6600. Direction of Trade: →↗ Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.6368 " 1.6474
1.6231 1.6507
1.6209 1.6562
1.6187 1.6622
1.612 1.6664*
USDJPY
Comment: Retreating smartly from the lower edge of the Ichimoku 'cloud' to form a 'spike high' candle against the moving averages. This has added to bearish momentum and the US dollar is not oversold. Probably not today, but maybe next week, we favour a test of the pivotal 94.00 area. Strategy: Sell at 95.85/96.00; stop well above 96.65. First target 95.50, then 95.00 and more.Direction of Trade: →↘ Chart Levels:Support Resistance
95.62 " 96.07
95.5 96.58
95 96.80*
94.88 97.27*
94.44 97.65
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
Rupee : The markets are currently holding slightly bearish bias . Breaking of 48.90 on the upside would confirmation of further weakness towards 49.50 and 49.95 . On the downside 48.00 levels is holding support. Despite late monsoons if the rupee maintains bullishness day after day and breaks 48.00 then we need to reconsider bearishness. (USD/INR : 48.55)
Gold :Gold rose quite a bit after FOMC decision . The view stays neutral as of now. (Gold- $941.66). Neutral
Dollar Index :Dollar index extends the rebound from 79.56 and is set to take on 80.94. We're anticipating a break of 80.94 resistance to signal resumption of rise from 78.33, to be confirmed by break of 81.36/47 resistance zone. Further rally should be seen to next key resistance at 82.62 (38.2% retracement of 89.62 to 78.93 at 82.64). in such case.. (DI- 80.45) Bullish
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade | Jun 26 09 02:05 GMT |
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 8370.00, 8326.11 and 8280.23(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8257.46, where correction also can be. Then follows 8233.70. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8187.19. Continuation will bring 8118.68.Today's resistance: - 8505.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8533.11, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8562.26, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8597.80. Continuation would bring 8628.75.
June 24 FOMC Meeting: Can the Fed Defeat the Bear?
By Nico Isaac (elliotwave.com)
It's Federal Open Market Committee time again. And, even before the June 24 meeting adjourned, word-parsers were dissecting the "minutes" like a high school biology student with a frog.
In short: While everyone with a pulse guesses at the meaning of Bernanke-speak, ALL of them hope his words give the stock market something to celebrate. According to the mainstream experts, that "something" would be ongoing signs of an "easy" money Fed. On this, the following June 24 news item explains:
"Stocks Up Ahead of FOMC... The Fed is widely expected to leave its key rate unchanged. Many investors are nervous that a recovery could be hampered if the Fed raises rates too soon." (AP)
Here's the thing: All this time and energy spent on what the central bankers do or won't do, say or don't say -- is a complete waste. The Fed never has/never will possess the power to LEAD a recovery in stocks and the economy. At best, monetary policy follows the larger trend already in force.
(Rate Cut Reality Check: Make no mistake: No amount of monetary easing can stem the bearish tide. The June 2009 Financial Forecast Service sees where the real force behind the market is headed next. Get the full story today.)
Think about it: In the past two years, the Fed has embarked on an "AIDZILLA"-like crusade to rescue the fledgling U.S. banking sector. This has included $12.8 Trillion in bailouts since September 2007, and TEN interest rate cuts to a record low of .25 to .0%. Combined, it's the single largest inflation-creating scheme in U.S. history.
YET -- the U.S. stock market still remains more than 35% BELOW its October 2007 high, yields on long-term Treasuries have soared along with mortgage rates, and the giant grizzly continues to rage across every major sector from housing to automakers, and jobs to retail.
This is NOT an isolated incident. At the very onset of the Fed's most recent Operation Rate-Slash, the September 2007 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast presented the following close-up of the "Unwonderful Wizardry of the Fed" and warned:
"Any near-term positive response to a Federal Reserve rate cut will be short-lived… The Fed's power to hold up the economy and stocks has no basis in physical reality."
(NOTE from chart: A Federal Reserve rate cut from 6.5% -- To -- 1.25% from 2000 to 2002 proved impotent against the longest stock market decline since the Great Depression, the tech-bubble bursting, and a brief economic recession.)
Since the publication of the September Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, the violent downdraft of the U.S. financial crisis plunged the U.S. stock market into bear market territory and triggered the worst credit collapse since the Great Depression.
Now that a slight break in the clouds has occurred -- i.e. slow uptick in home sales, rise in many commodity prices, and rebound in consumer confidence -- the mainstream is paying tribute to the Fed once more.
Don't fall for it.
It's Federal Open Market Committee time again. And, even before the June 24 meeting adjourned, word-parsers were dissecting the "minutes" like a high school biology student with a frog.
In short: While everyone with a pulse guesses at the meaning of Bernanke-speak, ALL of them hope his words give the stock market something to celebrate. According to the mainstream experts, that "something" would be ongoing signs of an "easy" money Fed. On this, the following June 24 news item explains:
"Stocks Up Ahead of FOMC... The Fed is widely expected to leave its key rate unchanged. Many investors are nervous that a recovery could be hampered if the Fed raises rates too soon." (AP)
Here's the thing: All this time and energy spent on what the central bankers do or won't do, say or don't say -- is a complete waste. The Fed never has/never will possess the power to LEAD a recovery in stocks and the economy. At best, monetary policy follows the larger trend already in force.
(Rate Cut Reality Check: Make no mistake: No amount of monetary easing can stem the bearish tide. The June 2009 Financial Forecast Service sees where the real force behind the market is headed next. Get the full story today.)
Think about it: In the past two years, the Fed has embarked on an "AIDZILLA"-like crusade to rescue the fledgling U.S. banking sector. This has included $12.8 Trillion in bailouts since September 2007, and TEN interest rate cuts to a record low of .25 to .0%. Combined, it's the single largest inflation-creating scheme in U.S. history.
YET -- the U.S. stock market still remains more than 35% BELOW its October 2007 high, yields on long-term Treasuries have soared along with mortgage rates, and the giant grizzly continues to rage across every major sector from housing to automakers, and jobs to retail.
This is NOT an isolated incident. At the very onset of the Fed's most recent Operation Rate-Slash, the September 2007 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast presented the following close-up of the "Unwonderful Wizardry of the Fed" and warned:
"Any near-term positive response to a Federal Reserve rate cut will be short-lived… The Fed's power to hold up the economy and stocks has no basis in physical reality."
(NOTE from chart: A Federal Reserve rate cut from 6.5% -- To -- 1.25% from 2000 to 2002 proved impotent against the longest stock market decline since the Great Depression, the tech-bubble bursting, and a brief economic recession.)
Since the publication of the September Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, the violent downdraft of the U.S. financial crisis plunged the U.S. stock market into bear market territory and triggered the worst credit collapse since the Great Depression.
Now that a slight break in the clouds has occurred -- i.e. slow uptick in home sales, rise in many commodity prices, and rebound in consumer confidence -- the mainstream is paying tribute to the Fed once more.
Don't fall for it.
Barclays Says Dollar ‘Paradise Lost’ as U.S. Assets Lose Allure
(Bloomberg) -- Barclays Capital Inc., the world’s third-largest currency trader, lowered its one-year forecast for the dollar, saying foreign investors will reduce their purchase of U.S. assets. The dollar will weaken to $1.50 per euro in a year, from $1.3988 today, currency strategists Steven Englander and David Woo wrote in a research note to clients today.
“Over the medium and long term, it is hard to identify U.S. assets whose performance will be attractive enough to motivate large capital inflows,” New York-based Englander and London- based Woo wrote. They referred to the dollar’s status as “safe- haven paradise lost” as the U.S. fiscal deficit balloons and the central bank prints money to buy government and private securities.
In the next three months, the dollar will get support because the Federal Reserve refrained yesterday from increasing its Treasury purchases further and policy makers around the world are “wary of a disorderly decline” of the dollar, the strategists wrote. The dollar will strengthen to $1.35 in three months before declining to $1.45 by year-end, according to the note.
“Over the medium and long term, it is hard to identify U.S. assets whose performance will be attractive enough to motivate large capital inflows,” New York-based Englander and London- based Woo wrote. They referred to the dollar’s status as “safe- haven paradise lost” as the U.S. fiscal deficit balloons and the central bank prints money to buy government and private securities.
In the next three months, the dollar will get support because the Federal Reserve refrained yesterday from increasing its Treasury purchases further and policy makers around the world are “wary of a disorderly decline” of the dollar, the strategists wrote. The dollar will strengthen to $1.35 in three months before declining to $1.45 by year-end, according to the note.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Kuatnya Faktor Sentimen & Teknikal Melanjutkan Momentum Kenaikan IHSG
Market Review
Munculnya sejumlah sentimen positif dari dalam negeri, mendorong IHSG kembali ditutup diatas level 2,000 kemarin. Penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar (penutupan Rp 10,250), stabilnya harga minyak di bawah level $ 70/barel, kemenangan Ito Warsito dengan paket pendukung yang positif sebagai Direktur Utama Bursa Efek Indonesia, Deutsche Bank memberikan rating buy untuk 10 saham unggulan RI dan perkiraan International Monetary Fund (IMF) akan segera menaikkan prospek pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia tahun 2009/2010, menjadi pemicu utama kenaikan IHSG. Faktor eksternal juga ikut mendukung kenaikan IHSG, setelah the Fed menahan laju suku bunga, OECD menaikkan pertumbuhan ekonomi 30 negara anggota dan data Durable Goods AS memicu kenaikan indeks saham regional Asia. Indeks kembali naik 48.497 poin (+2.43%), ditutup di 2,044.17, dengan nilai transaksi tercatat Rp 4.875 triliun. Net buy investor asing sebesar Rp 107.578 miliar, naik dibanding net buy Rp 42.359 miliar hari Kamis (25/06).
Indeks saham di Asia-Pasifik meningkat untuk hari ke-2, dipimpin oleh perusahaan teknologi dan pertambangan, karena the Fed mengatakan laju kontraksi ekonomi melambat dan Korea Selatan meningkatkan prediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi dan IMF menaikkan prediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi Australia. Lebih baik dari perkiraan Durable goods AS picu spekulasi permintaan bahan tambang akan meningkat.
IHSG Outlook
Ind P/E (x)
EPS
Y/Y Y/Y Suku Bunga* Inflasi* GDP*
Y/Y
IHSG 12.5 8% -13.6% 7.00% 6.04% 4.4%
STI 19.8 16% -30.4% 0.69% -0.70% -10.1%
KLCI 13.8 10% -17.8% 2.0% 3.00% -6.2%
SET 12.7 4% -31.5% 1.25% -3.30% -7.10%
SSE 35.8 36% -28.2% 5.31% -1.40% 6.10%
N225 45.0 -1% -35.1% 0.10% -0.10% -9.7%
HSI 21.5 19% -34.8% 0.50% 0.60% -7.80%
DJIA 25.0 3% -38.5% 0.25% -1.3% -2.5%
IHSG masih diuntungkan oleh sejumlah sentimen positif yang melanda saham lokal, yang seharusnya dapat menguatkan IHSG lebih lanjut di akhir bulan ini, terutama menjelang rilisan data inflasi RI yang dperkirakan mengalami penurunan di bulan Juni berpotensi mendorong penurunan suku bunga BI pekan depan menjadi 6.75% dari 7.0% saat ini. Dalam riset Dow Jones terakhir, Indonesia menjadi favorit diantara fund manager di bulan Juni, bersama China dan India, karena kutanya permintaan knsumen dan penurunan suku bunga acuan. Fund manager rata-rata memberikan rekomendasi overweight untuk saham Indonesia. EPFR Global, melihat fund manager international terus menaruh dananya di pasar emerging market Asia di bulan ini. Sementara Citigroup Global Market melihat peluang SBY menang di putaran pertama, meski popularitas menurun. Suksesnya lelang SUN hari Rabu sebesar Rp 2.2 triliun, trend penguatan rupiah (target Rp 10,000/USD) dan aksi window dressing di saham lokal, dapat melanjutkan laju kenaikan saham lokal (bank, property,komoditi,konsumsi).
Hold: (target >20%, risk <10%): BUMI/BNBR/ENRG/DEWA, MNCN/BMTR. ASIII,UNTR,INKP,TKIM,HEXA,BBRI,BMRI,TRUB,INCO.Buy: BDMN/BYAN.
Stock Picks:
* BDMN buy target Rp 6200
* BYAN buy target Rp 6942
Global Outlook
Spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi global kembali mencuat di akhir pekan ini, setelah the Fed menyatakan laju kontraksi ekonomi melambat dalam FOMC meeting kemarin. Sementara IMF merevisi naik prediksi ekonomi Australia tahun 2009/2010, Korea Selatan menaikkan prediksi ekonomi dalam negeri 2009/2010, IMF akan segera merevisi naik prediksi pertumbuhan negara emerging Asia dan OECD telah menaikkan prediksi negara emerging dan 30 negara anggota, diikuti membaiknya sejumlah data ekonomi AS (Durable Goods, revisi GDP Q1 Final -5.5%, meski Jobless Claims +15K; 627K) dapat memperkuat momentum kenaikan indeks saham global di akhir pekan ini. Meski imbas dari kenaikan harga minyak mendekati level $ 70/barel (target $ 73.32/77, selama berada di atas $ 62.61, isu ketegangan di Nigeria dan laporan penurunan inventory AS) dan laporan kenaikan short sell di indeks saham S&P 500 AS untuk pertama kali sejak Maret, dapat membatasi potensi laju indeks saham global.
Technical Analysis:
IHSG kembali mendapatkan signal positif dari pola candle blue marubozu, mendekati target 2,060 (downtrend line)/2,146 (projection high 100.0 FE) yang diperkirakan dapat dicapai dalam 1-2 pekan ini, selama IHSG ditutup diatas 1,984 (trendline). Indikator ADX menunjukkan penurunan, stochastic crossing dari oversold, MACD berada di teritorial positif, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi kenaikan terbatas dalam waktu dekat ini. IHSG juga ditutup diatas 1,983 (5-day MA) /2,008 (10-day MA) memberikan dukung trend bullish. Hitungan Elliot Wave: indeks berada dalam proses wave b / ii selama tidak melewati 2,060/2,116 (high 10/06) dalam wave 4 subwave intermediate (4) / (B), untuk konformasi target 2,172 (61.8% FR 2835-1089)/2,408 (76.4% FR) dalam periode 3 bulan, selama tidak ditutup dibawah 1,845 (50.0% 2116-1708).
Resistance: 2152.59/2127.80/2103.01/2078.22. PP 2028.64
Support : 2020.13/2011.62/1995.34/1979.06
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2,020 - 2,105)
Munculnya sejumlah sentimen positif dari dalam negeri, mendorong IHSG kembali ditutup diatas level 2,000 kemarin. Penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar (penutupan Rp 10,250), stabilnya harga minyak di bawah level $ 70/barel, kemenangan Ito Warsito dengan paket pendukung yang positif sebagai Direktur Utama Bursa Efek Indonesia, Deutsche Bank memberikan rating buy untuk 10 saham unggulan RI dan perkiraan International Monetary Fund (IMF) akan segera menaikkan prospek pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia tahun 2009/2010, menjadi pemicu utama kenaikan IHSG. Faktor eksternal juga ikut mendukung kenaikan IHSG, setelah the Fed menahan laju suku bunga, OECD menaikkan pertumbuhan ekonomi 30 negara anggota dan data Durable Goods AS memicu kenaikan indeks saham regional Asia. Indeks kembali naik 48.497 poin (+2.43%), ditutup di 2,044.17, dengan nilai transaksi tercatat Rp 4.875 triliun. Net buy investor asing sebesar Rp 107.578 miliar, naik dibanding net buy Rp 42.359 miliar hari Kamis (25/06).
Indeks saham di Asia-Pasifik meningkat untuk hari ke-2, dipimpin oleh perusahaan teknologi dan pertambangan, karena the Fed mengatakan laju kontraksi ekonomi melambat dan Korea Selatan meningkatkan prediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi dan IMF menaikkan prediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi Australia. Lebih baik dari perkiraan Durable goods AS picu spekulasi permintaan bahan tambang akan meningkat.
IHSG Outlook
Ind P/E (x)
EPS
Y/Y Y/Y Suku Bunga* Inflasi* GDP*
Y/Y
IHSG 12.5 8% -13.6% 7.00% 6.04% 4.4%
STI 19.8 16% -30.4% 0.69% -0.70% -10.1%
KLCI 13.8 10% -17.8% 2.0% 3.00% -6.2%
SET 12.7 4% -31.5% 1.25% -3.30% -7.10%
SSE 35.8 36% -28.2% 5.31% -1.40% 6.10%
N225 45.0 -1% -35.1% 0.10% -0.10% -9.7%
HSI 21.5 19% -34.8% 0.50% 0.60% -7.80%
DJIA 25.0 3% -38.5% 0.25% -1.3% -2.5%
IHSG masih diuntungkan oleh sejumlah sentimen positif yang melanda saham lokal, yang seharusnya dapat menguatkan IHSG lebih lanjut di akhir bulan ini, terutama menjelang rilisan data inflasi RI yang dperkirakan mengalami penurunan di bulan Juni berpotensi mendorong penurunan suku bunga BI pekan depan menjadi 6.75% dari 7.0% saat ini. Dalam riset Dow Jones terakhir, Indonesia menjadi favorit diantara fund manager di bulan Juni, bersama China dan India, karena kutanya permintaan knsumen dan penurunan suku bunga acuan. Fund manager rata-rata memberikan rekomendasi overweight untuk saham Indonesia. EPFR Global, melihat fund manager international terus menaruh dananya di pasar emerging market Asia di bulan ini. Sementara Citigroup Global Market melihat peluang SBY menang di putaran pertama, meski popularitas menurun. Suksesnya lelang SUN hari Rabu sebesar Rp 2.2 triliun, trend penguatan rupiah (target Rp 10,000/USD) dan aksi window dressing di saham lokal, dapat melanjutkan laju kenaikan saham lokal (bank, property,komoditi,konsumsi).
Hold: (target >20%, risk <10%): BUMI/BNBR/ENRG/DEWA, MNCN/BMTR. ASIII,UNTR,INKP,TKIM,HEXA,BBRI,BMRI,TRUB,INCO.Buy: BDMN/BYAN.
Stock Picks:
* BDMN buy target Rp 6200
* BYAN buy target Rp 6942
Global Outlook
Spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi global kembali mencuat di akhir pekan ini, setelah the Fed menyatakan laju kontraksi ekonomi melambat dalam FOMC meeting kemarin. Sementara IMF merevisi naik prediksi ekonomi Australia tahun 2009/2010, Korea Selatan menaikkan prediksi ekonomi dalam negeri 2009/2010, IMF akan segera merevisi naik prediksi pertumbuhan negara emerging Asia dan OECD telah menaikkan prediksi negara emerging dan 30 negara anggota, diikuti membaiknya sejumlah data ekonomi AS (Durable Goods, revisi GDP Q1 Final -5.5%, meski Jobless Claims +15K; 627K) dapat memperkuat momentum kenaikan indeks saham global di akhir pekan ini. Meski imbas dari kenaikan harga minyak mendekati level $ 70/barel (target $ 73.32/77, selama berada di atas $ 62.61, isu ketegangan di Nigeria dan laporan penurunan inventory AS) dan laporan kenaikan short sell di indeks saham S&P 500 AS untuk pertama kali sejak Maret, dapat membatasi potensi laju indeks saham global.
Technical Analysis:
IHSG kembali mendapatkan signal positif dari pola candle blue marubozu, mendekati target 2,060 (downtrend line)/2,146 (projection high 100.0 FE) yang diperkirakan dapat dicapai dalam 1-2 pekan ini, selama IHSG ditutup diatas 1,984 (trendline). Indikator ADX menunjukkan penurunan, stochastic crossing dari oversold, MACD berada di teritorial positif, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi kenaikan terbatas dalam waktu dekat ini. IHSG juga ditutup diatas 1,983 (5-day MA) /2,008 (10-day MA) memberikan dukung trend bullish. Hitungan Elliot Wave: indeks berada dalam proses wave b / ii selama tidak melewati 2,060/2,116 (high 10/06) dalam wave 4 subwave intermediate (4) / (B), untuk konformasi target 2,172 (61.8% FR 2835-1089)/2,408 (76.4% FR) dalam periode 3 bulan, selama tidak ditutup dibawah 1,845 (50.0% 2116-1708).
Resistance: 2152.59/2127.80/2103.01/2078.22. PP 2028.64
Support : 2020.13/2011.62/1995.34/1979.06
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2,020 - 2,105)
Momentum Kenaikan Indeks Regional Terbatas
SSIU9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
9755 9610 9820 9510 9920 9730 10020 9390 9500 9650 9915 10035 10180
Commentary
Di chart 4 jam, trend jangka pendek indeks SSIU9 masih berada berbalik menjadi netral dari bearish, setelah indeks ditutup diatas resistance line di 9,739, dimana dapat mengarahkan indeks ke target resistance berikutnya di 9892 (23.6 fibonacci retracement)/9985 (projection 61.8 FE). Indikator teknikal ADX menunjukkan kenaikan, stochastic crossing up, dan MACD berada dalam teritorial negatif, dan indeks masih berada dalam downtrend channel, seharusnya dapat mendorong technical rebound hari ini. Penutupan indeks dibawah 96.39 (trendline support), dapat membebani kinerja trend bearish indeks. Perkiraan range hari ini pada kisaran 9600-9900.
Rekomendasi : Buy 9640 target 9880 stop 100p, buy break 9900 target 10100 stop 100p, buy 9330 target 9,800 stop 100p. (-50p)
KSU9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
178.50 174.2 177.3 173.2 178.1 175.0 179.1 168.9 171.7 175.1 181.3 184.1 187.5
Commentary
Dalam chart 4-jam, indeks KSU9 berada dalam pola congestion di kisaran range 184.15-172.60, didukung oleh Indikator teknikal MACD dan stochastic berada dalam kondisi oversold, ADX terlihat merangkak naik, menunjukkan potensi technical rebound hari ini. Potensi kenaikan indeks terbatas meski indeks dapat menembus resistance line di 179.76, tetapi gagal ditutup diatas level tersebut (false break). Bilamana break target 184.10 (double top di chart 4 jam). Tetapi jika indeks ditutup dibawah support line di 172.15, trend akan berbalik bearish, target 170.11 (50.0 FR)/166.80 (61.8 FR). Perkiraan range hari ini: 175.00-181.00
Rekomendasi : Sell 180.50 target 176.00 stop 50p, buy break 180.80 target 184.00 stop 100p. sell break 179.60 target 176.60. Sell break 172.00 target 170.50 stop 100p. buy 175.80 target 178.50 stop 100p. (+260+100-100p).
HSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
18319 17813 18125 17713 18203 17969 18303 17738 17872 18095 18452 18586 18809
Commentary
Dalam chart 4 jam, indeks menunjukkan pola downtrend channel dan berpotensi menunjukkan pola head & shoulder jika indeks bertahan di bawah support 17321 (61.8 FR 19090-16195). Trend masih netral, setelah indeks ditutup dibawah 17,648 dapat mengarahkan indeks ke target 17126 (support channel)/16873 (76.4 FR), selama gagal ditutup diatas 17,980 (38.2% FR). Indikator teknikal ADX meningkat dan stochastic crossing up, meski MACD masih berada di teritorial netral, menunjukkan potensi technical rebound lebih lanjut. Daily candle menunjukkan rising window, seharusnya mendukung laju kenaikan hari ini. Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks masih berada dalam wave b / (ii) dalam subwave motive (3) telah berakhir di di 19,100 dalam cycle B. Perkiraan range hari ini : 18.000-18.600
Rekomendasi : Buy 18,030 target 18350 (or closing) stop 50 p. buy break 18420 target 18720 stop 100 poin. Sell break 17990 target 17700 stop 100p. Buy 17670 target 17950 stop 60p. Buy17100 target 16870 stop 100p. (+260p).
9755 9610 9820 9510 9920 9730 10020 9390 9500 9650 9915 10035 10180
Commentary
Di chart 4 jam, trend jangka pendek indeks SSIU9 masih berada berbalik menjadi netral dari bearish, setelah indeks ditutup diatas resistance line di 9,739, dimana dapat mengarahkan indeks ke target resistance berikutnya di 9892 (23.6 fibonacci retracement)/9985 (projection 61.8 FE). Indikator teknikal ADX menunjukkan kenaikan, stochastic crossing up, dan MACD berada dalam teritorial negatif, dan indeks masih berada dalam downtrend channel, seharusnya dapat mendorong technical rebound hari ini. Penutupan indeks dibawah 96.39 (trendline support), dapat membebani kinerja trend bearish indeks. Perkiraan range hari ini pada kisaran 9600-9900.
Rekomendasi : Buy 9640 target 9880 stop 100p, buy break 9900 target 10100 stop 100p, buy 9330 target 9,800 stop 100p. (-50p)
KSU9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
178.50 174.2 177.3 173.2 178.1 175.0 179.1 168.9 171.7 175.1 181.3 184.1 187.5
Commentary
Dalam chart 4-jam, indeks KSU9 berada dalam pola congestion di kisaran range 184.15-172.60, didukung oleh Indikator teknikal MACD dan stochastic berada dalam kondisi oversold, ADX terlihat merangkak naik, menunjukkan potensi technical rebound hari ini. Potensi kenaikan indeks terbatas meski indeks dapat menembus resistance line di 179.76, tetapi gagal ditutup diatas level tersebut (false break). Bilamana break target 184.10 (double top di chart 4 jam). Tetapi jika indeks ditutup dibawah support line di 172.15, trend akan berbalik bearish, target 170.11 (50.0 FR)/166.80 (61.8 FR). Perkiraan range hari ini: 175.00-181.00
Rekomendasi : Sell 180.50 target 176.00 stop 50p, buy break 180.80 target 184.00 stop 100p. sell break 179.60 target 176.60. Sell break 172.00 target 170.50 stop 100p. buy 175.80 target 178.50 stop 100p. (+260+100-100p).
HSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
18319 17813 18125 17713 18203 17969 18303 17738 17872 18095 18452 18586 18809
Commentary
Dalam chart 4 jam, indeks menunjukkan pola downtrend channel dan berpotensi menunjukkan pola head & shoulder jika indeks bertahan di bawah support 17321 (61.8 FR 19090-16195). Trend masih netral, setelah indeks ditutup dibawah 17,648 dapat mengarahkan indeks ke target 17126 (support channel)/16873 (76.4 FR), selama gagal ditutup diatas 17,980 (38.2% FR). Indikator teknikal ADX meningkat dan stochastic crossing up, meski MACD masih berada di teritorial netral, menunjukkan potensi technical rebound lebih lanjut. Daily candle menunjukkan rising window, seharusnya mendukung laju kenaikan hari ini. Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks masih berada dalam wave b / (ii) dalam subwave motive (3) telah berakhir di di 19,100 dalam cycle B. Perkiraan range hari ini : 18.000-18.600
Rekomendasi : Buy 18,030 target 18350 (or closing) stop 50 p. buy break 18420 target 18720 stop 100 poin. Sell break 17990 target 17700 stop 100p. Buy 17670 target 17950 stop 60p. Buy17100 target 16870 stop 100p. (+260p).
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Jun 25 09 07:11 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's consolidation from 66.25 is still is progress and is now pressing 4 hours 55 EMA at 69.31 level. Nevertheless, with 72.55 resistance intact, another fall is still in favor. Below 66.25 will indicate that correction from 73.23 has resumed. Considering that a short term top is formed at 73.32 with bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Deeper decline could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 45.44 to 73.23 at 62.61 next.
In the bigger picture, while a short term top is formed at 73.23, there is no indication that rise from 33.20 has completed yet. Such rise is still in favor to extend to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77, and possibly further to next key level of 90, (50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.23) . But as noted before, strong resistance should be seen there and at least from some deep pull back. Though, a break of 54.66 key medium term resistance turned support will argue that whole rise from 33.2 low has indeed completed and will turn outlook bearish for a retest of this low eventually.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's consolidation from 66.25 is still is progress and is now pressing 4 hours 55 EMA at 69.31 level. Nevertheless, with 72.55 resistance intact, another fall is still in favor. Below 66.25 will indicate that correction from 73.23 has resumed. Considering that a short term top is formed at 73.32 with bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Deeper decline could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 45.44 to 73.23 at 62.61 next.
In the bigger picture, while a short term top is formed at 73.23, there is no indication that rise from 33.20 has completed yet. Such rise is still in favor to extend to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77, and possibly further to next key level of 90, (50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.23) . But as noted before, strong resistance should be seen there and at least from some deep pull back. Though, a break of 54.66 key medium term resistance turned support will argue that whole rise from 33.2 low has indeed completed and will turn outlook bearish for a retest of this low eventually.
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Jun 25 09 07:13 ET
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's rebound was limited by 944.6 resistance and thus, there is no indication that fall from 992.1 has completed yet. Intraday outlook remains neutral for the moment and some more sideway trading might be seen. Further decline is mildly in favor as long as 944.6 resistance holds. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 865.5 to 992.1 at 913.9 will pave the way for retest of 865.6 low. Though, above above 944.6 will suggest that fall from 922.1 has completed and will bring strong rebound towards 992.1 resistance.
In the bigger picture, recent development argues that rise from 865 has completed at 992.1 already, ahead of 1007.7/1033.9 key resistance zone. Also it suggests that consolidation from 1007.7 is still in progress and break of 913.9 fibo support will bring the third leg down to test 865 support before completing the whole consolidation. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) and bring resumption of rise from 681. On the upside, though, above 992.1 will revive the case that rise from 865 is resumption of up trend rather than part of sideway consolidation. In such case, retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance should be seen next.
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's rebound was limited by 944.6 resistance and thus, there is no indication that fall from 992.1 has completed yet. Intraday outlook remains neutral for the moment and some more sideway trading might be seen. Further decline is mildly in favor as long as 944.6 resistance holds. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 865.5 to 992.1 at 913.9 will pave the way for retest of 865.6 low. Though, above above 944.6 will suggest that fall from 922.1 has completed and will bring strong rebound towards 992.1 resistance.
In the bigger picture, recent development argues that rise from 865 has completed at 992.1 already, ahead of 1007.7/1033.9 key resistance zone. Also it suggests that consolidation from 1007.7 is still in progress and break of 913.9 fibo support will bring the third leg down to test 865 support before completing the whole consolidation. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) and bring resumption of rise from 681. On the upside, though, above 992.1 will revive the case that rise from 865 is resumption of up trend rather than part of sideway consolidation. In such case, retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance should be seen next.
Stocks Bear Market Not Finished
y: Donald_W_Dony
Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe aggressive rally which propelled the S&P 500 upward 35% from March to June appears to be only half of the bigger picture. Long-term models for the index indicate that the S&P 500 trades on an approximate 7-8 month cycle. The complete movement is from March to October. July represents the mid-point of the cycle.
Technical evidence would suggest that the next four months should produce a downward bias on the big index.Once the S&P 500 breaks down to 890, then the present rally has stopped and the expected downward drift to October has begun. The first level of underlying support is at 800. The second is at 740.
Bottom line: Models would suggest that the bear market is not completely finished. There is an increased probability of downward pressure building over the next four months. Investment approach: Longer-term investors may wish to wait for the correction to unfold before adding new long positions. As most stocks and sectors follow the general path of the underlying index, there is a greater likelihood of obtaining better pricing by October.
Your comments are always welcomed.
By Donald W. Dony, FCSI, MFTA
Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe aggressive rally which propelled the S&P 500 upward 35% from March to June appears to be only half of the bigger picture. Long-term models for the index indicate that the S&P 500 trades on an approximate 7-8 month cycle. The complete movement is from March to October. July represents the mid-point of the cycle.
Technical evidence would suggest that the next four months should produce a downward bias on the big index.Once the S&P 500 breaks down to 890, then the present rally has stopped and the expected downward drift to October has begun. The first level of underlying support is at 800. The second is at 740.
Bottom line: Models would suggest that the bear market is not completely finished. There is an increased probability of downward pressure building over the next four months. Investment approach: Longer-term investors may wish to wait for the correction to unfold before adding new long positions. As most stocks and sectors follow the general path of the underlying index, there is a greater likelihood of obtaining better pricing by October.
Your comments are always welcomed.
By Donald W. Dony, FCSI, MFTA
7 Reasons To Expect A Short Term Bounce In The US Stock Market
By Guy Lerner on June 25, 2009
I can think of at least 7 reasons why the equity markets may bounce over the short term.
1) End of the month mark-ups.
2) End of the quarter mark ups.
3) Coming into the July 4th holiday and trading will be light, so it should be easy to push the markets around.
4) The markets are oversold. Figure 1 is a daily chart of the S&P Depository Receipts (SPY: 90.118 0.00 0.00%) with the McClellan Oscillator in the lower panel. The McClellan Oscillator measures market breadth (in this case the NYSE advancing and declining issues). This is deeply oversold but not to the levels of March, 2009.
Figure 1. McClellan Oscillator
5) Assets in the Rydex leveraged bear funds are now exceeding those in the leveraged and bullish funds, and recent extremes in this ratio have led to moves in the opposite direction of the consensus. See figure 2, a daily chart of the S&P500 (^GSPC: 900.94 0.00 0.00%). So too many bears (red line in graph) relative to bulls (green line) like now has led to short term market up swings; too many bulls relative to bears (like last week) has led to market downdrafts. See this article for the most recent mention of the Rydex leveraged assets.
Figure 2. Rydex Leveraged Assets
6) The 200 day moving average. I cannot forsee any scenario where the market will rollover without a fight at the 200 day moving average. This is the bull’s “line in the sand”, and the Pavlovian response of traders around this “key” level is what makes a bounce a bounce.
7) While there is always risk ahead of the Fed meeting today, I cannot imagine that they will say or do anything that will harm share prices. In fact, the purpose of most statements from our public officials is to instill market confidence, and I don’t see this dynamic changing anytime soon.
From my perspective the ensuing short term bounce is just market noise. This is still not the proper launcing pad for a new, sustainable bull market. However, I am on record of how I would “play” the market if the S&P500 closes the month above its simple 10 month moving average.
I can think of at least 7 reasons why the equity markets may bounce over the short term.
1) End of the month mark-ups.
2) End of the quarter mark ups.
3) Coming into the July 4th holiday and trading will be light, so it should be easy to push the markets around.
4) The markets are oversold. Figure 1 is a daily chart of the S&P Depository Receipts (SPY: 90.118 0.00 0.00%) with the McClellan Oscillator in the lower panel. The McClellan Oscillator measures market breadth (in this case the NYSE advancing and declining issues). This is deeply oversold but not to the levels of March, 2009.
Figure 1. McClellan Oscillator
5) Assets in the Rydex leveraged bear funds are now exceeding those in the leveraged and bullish funds, and recent extremes in this ratio have led to moves in the opposite direction of the consensus. See figure 2, a daily chart of the S&P500 (^GSPC: 900.94 0.00 0.00%). So too many bears (red line in graph) relative to bulls (green line) like now has led to short term market up swings; too many bulls relative to bears (like last week) has led to market downdrafts. See this article for the most recent mention of the Rydex leveraged assets.
Figure 2. Rydex Leveraged Assets
6) The 200 day moving average. I cannot forsee any scenario where the market will rollover without a fight at the 200 day moving average. This is the bull’s “line in the sand”, and the Pavlovian response of traders around this “key” level is what makes a bounce a bounce.
7) While there is always risk ahead of the Fed meeting today, I cannot imagine that they will say or do anything that will harm share prices. In fact, the purpose of most statements from our public officials is to instill market confidence, and I don’t see this dynamic changing anytime soon.
From my perspective the ensuing short term bounce is just market noise. This is still not the proper launcing pad for a new, sustainable bull market. However, I am on record of how I would “play” the market if the S&P500 closes the month above its simple 10 month moving average.
Aksi Intervensi SNB & Hasil FOMC Lemahkan Euro & Pound
USD Index 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low EUR-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
80.42 89.62 (04/03) 78.59 (01/06) 1.3958 1.4337 (03/06) 1.2459 (04/03)
Dolar menguat hampir terhadap seluruh mata uang setelah the Fed mempertahankan suku bunga mendekati nol persen dan tidak meningkatkan pembelian Treasury jangka panjang dan mortgage backed securities. The Fed juga menekankan meski laju kontraksi ekonomi moderat, terlalu optimis perlu diwaspadai, dengan mengatakan ekonomi AS masih tetap lemah dan inflasi masih tetap jinak untuk sementara waktu. The Fed juga mempertahankan program pembelian obligasi sebesar US$ 1.75 triliun, US$ 1.45 triliun untuk hutang perumahan dan US$ 300 miliar untuk Treasury AS. Selama juga data Durable Goods AS bulan Mei tercatat diatas perkiraan pasar 1.8%, meski New Home Sales merosot 0.6% menjadi 342,000 unit di bulan Mei. Dolar juga emnguat setelah Swiss National Bank dilaporkan melakukan intervensi membeli mata uang Swiss franc terhadap dolar. Pasar akan kembali mengamati testimony Chairman Fed Bernanke nanti malam,dimana dapat memicu aksi profit-taking long dolar AS
Euro melemah terhadap dolar karena the Fed memutuskan tidak merubah kebijakan moneternya, meski laju pelemahan euro terbatas berkat kenaikan indeks saham MSCI Asia-Pasific hari ini yang meningkatkan permintaan untuk euro yang memiliki tingkat suku bunga yang lebih tinggi ketimbang dolar AS. Kemarin euro terpukul oleh provisi likuiditas ke sistem perbankan oleh bank sentral Eropa (ECB), dimana lelang pinjaman 1-tahun untuk mensupport pasar kredit, ECB telah menyuntik 442 miliar euro ke bank-bank. Sementara, Organization for Economic Coorperation and Development merevisi turun pertumbuhan untuk zona euro di tahun 2009 menjadi 4.1% dari 4.8%, meskipun OECD menaikkan prediksi ekonomi tahun 2010, namun diperkirakan masih stagnan tahun depan. Spekulasi bank sentral Swiss melakukan intervensi pembelian Swiss franc terhadap dolar dan euro untk hari ke-2, memberikan sentimen negatif kepada euro dolar.
USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
96.08 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.6444 1.6661 (03/06) 1.3502 (23/01)
Yen melemah terhadap euro dan dolar setelah sebuah laporan pemerintah menunjukkan investor Jepang membeli lebih banyak saham dan obligasi di luar negeri ketimbang yang mereka jual untuk pekan ke-7. yen jga melemah terhadap 16 mata uang utama dunia karena kenaikan indeks saham regional Asia meningkatkan spekulasi tenaga kerja Jepang akan menggunakan bonus musim panas untuk membeli aset yang memiliki yield yang lebih tinggi di luar negeri. Yen juga melemah setelah Menteri Keuangan Jepang Kaoru Yosano mengatakan di parlemen di Tokyo hari ini bahwa Jepang mensuppotr status dolar AS sebagai mata uang cadangan devisa global dan keyakinan terhadap dolar AS “tidak dapat digoyahkan”. Yen juga tertekan dari dampak lebih baik dari perkiraan data Durable Goods AS dan aksi intervensi SNB untuk menguatkan dolar Swiss franc kemarin, menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang yen yang sebelumnya mendapatkan keuntungan dari status safe haven paska laporan World Bank.
Pound sterling melemah terhadap dolar AS berkat the Fed mempertahankan kebijakan moneternya kemarin, yang mendorong perkiraan resesi di AS mereda dan aksi intervensi SNB di dolar Swiss ikut mendorong pound terkoreksi dari level tertinggi 1.6601. Meski pound menguat terhadap euro karena OECD menaikkan prediksi ekonomi Inggris tahun depan. Pound juga menuat terhadap yen dan Swiss franc karena indeks bank FTSE 350 menguat 2.5 persen, menghentikan penurunan selama 2 hari dan indeks benchmark FTSE100 menguat 1.2%. OECB merevisi ekonomi Inggris dari kontrak menjadi stabil di tahun depan. Pound dolar memiliki korelasi sekitar 79% dengan indeks bank FTSE 350, berdasarkan data dari Bloomberg. Sementara komentar gubernur BOE Mervyn King kemarin bahwa pemulihan ekonomi Inggris dari resesi akan lambat dan “tidak pasti membatasi dampak laporan kenaikan harga rumah mewah di Inggris.
KIE 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
10,255 12,150 (02/03) 9,900 (05/06) 0.7992 0.8263 (03/06) 0.6248 (02/02)
Kontrak Indeks Emas (USD-IDR) di sesi Asia hari ini melemah mengikuti pelemahan mayoritas mata uang dolar terhadap mata uang regional Asia setelah the Fed mempertahankan suku bunga dan mempertahankan kebijakan quantitative easing, menurunkan permintaan untuk dolar untuk pembayaran hutang korporasi dan pembayaran bunga surat berharga di akhir tutup buku kuartal 2 pada pekan ini. Sementara IMF dilaporkan akan merevisi naik prospek pertumbuhan ekonomi AS, dan Deutsche Bank memberikan rekomendasi Buy untuk saham RI. KIE berpotensi melemah lebih lanjut ke support Rp 10,250/10,000 dalam waktu dekat, menjelang rilisan data inflasi bulan Juni dan BI rate yang dapat dipangkas menjadi 6.75% dari 7.0% saat ini. IHSG menguat 42.27 poin hari ini menjadi 2,037.79, memberikan sentimen positif kepada pergerakan rupiah hari ini, menjelang testimony Fed Bernanke hari ini. Perkiraan range hingga besok: 10,100-10,350.
Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) menguat untuk hari ke-3 setelah pemerintah dan International Monetary Fund (IMF) mengatakan ekonomi akan pulih lebih cepat dari perkiraan sebelumnya. Aussie dan kiwi juga menguat karena kenaikan indeks saham Asia Pasifik hari ini dan the Fed tetap mempertahankan kebijakan moneternya dini hari tadi. Treasury Secretary Australia ken Henry mengatakan pertumbuhan ekonomi akan “somewhat stronger” dalam 12 bulan mendatang hingga 30 Juni ketimbang prediksi sebelumnya karena stimulus pemerintah dan melunaknya kebijakan moneter. IMF kemarin memprediksikan ekonomi akan terkontraksi lebih kecil dari perkiraan sebelumnya dan akan tumbuh dua kali lipat di tahun 2010. OECD kemarin juga memprediksikan ekonomi Australia akan meningkat 1.2% di tahun 2010 setelah terkontraksi 0.4% di tahun ini. Kiwi juga melemah setelah laporan pemerintah menunjukkan defisit negara perdagangan menyusut karena impor anjlok dan keuntungan perusahaan yang dimiliki asing merosot karena resesi terburuk lebih dari 3 dekade.
Technical Analysis
(+50p). Trend jangka pendek EURUSD terancam berubah jika gagal mempertahankan support line di 1.3835, didukung indikator MACD bullish, Stochastic crossing down, ADX menurun, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan laju kenaikan terbatas. Pola H&S dengan neckline di 1.3728, jika tembus dapat picu penurunan ke target 1.3419. Hitungan Elliot wave euro dolar dalam wave 2 koreksi dalam sub wave intermediate 4. Support di 1.3871 (projeksi penurunan 61.8)/1.3746 (low). Resistance di 1.4171 (downtrend line)/1.4196 (projection 100 FE). Buy 1.3830 & 1.3870 target di 1.4000 stop 60p, buy 1.3750 target 1.4000 stop 60p, sell 1.4080 target 1.3900 stop 60p. Sell 1.4170target 1.4000 stop diatas 1.4400.
(+60p; Hold buy 95.80 target 97.70 stop 95.00) USDJPY menunjukkan signal positif dari tembusnya resistance channel di 95.93 dan pola candle piercing bullish, didukung oleh indikator ADX menurun dan MACD bearish, stochastic terkoreksi turun, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan hari ini. Support berada di 95.31 (projection 61.8FE)/94.87 (low 23/06). Trend bearish karena ditutup dibawah 96.44 (10 MA)/96.18 (200 MA). Resistance berada di 97.10/97.66 (161.8 FE). Buy 95.90 target 97.10 stop 60p, sell 97.10 target 96.00 stop diatas 97.80, sell 98.70 target 97.00 stop 50p. buy 94.90 target 97.50 stop di 94.00.
(-100p hold sell 1.6400 target 1.6300/1.260 stop 60p). GBPUSD masih mempertahankan trend bullish karena menunjukkan pola bearish rising wedge meski tertahan di resistance line di 1.6531, meningkatkan potensi kenaikan terbatas selama masih berada di bawah level tersebut. Support berada di 1.6257 (projection 100.0 FE), seharusnya mempertahankan trend bullish di 1.6155. indikator ADX menunjukkan kenaikan. Tembusnya trendline resistance di 1.6515 dapat mendorong GBP ke target 1.6661/1.6814. Analisa EW menunjukkan proses zig zag wave c / iii minutte dalam dalam koreksi intemediate 4. Buy break 1.6520 target 1.6650 stop 100p, Sell break 1.6150 target 1.6050 stop 60p. Sell break 1.6020 target 1.5810 stop 50p. Sell 1.6640 target 1.6380 stop 30p. Buy break 1.6670 target 1.6820 stop 50p. Buy break 1.6830 target 1.7000 stop 60p. Buy 1.6260 target 1.6500 stop 60p. Buy 1.6130 target 1.6400.
(Hold buy 0.8000 target 0.8100 stop 0.7870). AUD-USD mulai mendapatkan signal positif dari tembusnya trendline di 0.7857 didukung oleh stochastic crossing up dan pola candle morning star (potensi bullishreversal), untuk mencapai diatas 0.8151 (61.8 FE)/0.8193 (resistance channel). Elliot wave menunjukkan proses wave zig zag c dalam wave intermediate 3. Buy break 0.7880 target 0.8150 stop 100p, buy 0.7780 target 0.8100 stop 60p. Sell 0.8100 target 0.7850 stop 50p, sell 0.8200 target 0.7800 stop 50p. Buy break 0.8210 target 0.8450.
80.42 89.62 (04/03) 78.59 (01/06) 1.3958 1.4337 (03/06) 1.2459 (04/03)
Dolar menguat hampir terhadap seluruh mata uang setelah the Fed mempertahankan suku bunga mendekati nol persen dan tidak meningkatkan pembelian Treasury jangka panjang dan mortgage backed securities. The Fed juga menekankan meski laju kontraksi ekonomi moderat, terlalu optimis perlu diwaspadai, dengan mengatakan ekonomi AS masih tetap lemah dan inflasi masih tetap jinak untuk sementara waktu. The Fed juga mempertahankan program pembelian obligasi sebesar US$ 1.75 triliun, US$ 1.45 triliun untuk hutang perumahan dan US$ 300 miliar untuk Treasury AS. Selama juga data Durable Goods AS bulan Mei tercatat diatas perkiraan pasar 1.8%, meski New Home Sales merosot 0.6% menjadi 342,000 unit di bulan Mei. Dolar juga emnguat setelah Swiss National Bank dilaporkan melakukan intervensi membeli mata uang Swiss franc terhadap dolar. Pasar akan kembali mengamati testimony Chairman Fed Bernanke nanti malam,dimana dapat memicu aksi profit-taking long dolar AS
Euro melemah terhadap dolar karena the Fed memutuskan tidak merubah kebijakan moneternya, meski laju pelemahan euro terbatas berkat kenaikan indeks saham MSCI Asia-Pasific hari ini yang meningkatkan permintaan untuk euro yang memiliki tingkat suku bunga yang lebih tinggi ketimbang dolar AS. Kemarin euro terpukul oleh provisi likuiditas ke sistem perbankan oleh bank sentral Eropa (ECB), dimana lelang pinjaman 1-tahun untuk mensupport pasar kredit, ECB telah menyuntik 442 miliar euro ke bank-bank. Sementara, Organization for Economic Coorperation and Development merevisi turun pertumbuhan untuk zona euro di tahun 2009 menjadi 4.1% dari 4.8%, meskipun OECD menaikkan prediksi ekonomi tahun 2010, namun diperkirakan masih stagnan tahun depan. Spekulasi bank sentral Swiss melakukan intervensi pembelian Swiss franc terhadap dolar dan euro untk hari ke-2, memberikan sentimen negatif kepada euro dolar.
USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
96.08 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.6444 1.6661 (03/06) 1.3502 (23/01)
Yen melemah terhadap euro dan dolar setelah sebuah laporan pemerintah menunjukkan investor Jepang membeli lebih banyak saham dan obligasi di luar negeri ketimbang yang mereka jual untuk pekan ke-7. yen jga melemah terhadap 16 mata uang utama dunia karena kenaikan indeks saham regional Asia meningkatkan spekulasi tenaga kerja Jepang akan menggunakan bonus musim panas untuk membeli aset yang memiliki yield yang lebih tinggi di luar negeri. Yen juga melemah setelah Menteri Keuangan Jepang Kaoru Yosano mengatakan di parlemen di Tokyo hari ini bahwa Jepang mensuppotr status dolar AS sebagai mata uang cadangan devisa global dan keyakinan terhadap dolar AS “tidak dapat digoyahkan”. Yen juga tertekan dari dampak lebih baik dari perkiraan data Durable Goods AS dan aksi intervensi SNB untuk menguatkan dolar Swiss franc kemarin, menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang yen yang sebelumnya mendapatkan keuntungan dari status safe haven paska laporan World Bank.
Pound sterling melemah terhadap dolar AS berkat the Fed mempertahankan kebijakan moneternya kemarin, yang mendorong perkiraan resesi di AS mereda dan aksi intervensi SNB di dolar Swiss ikut mendorong pound terkoreksi dari level tertinggi 1.6601. Meski pound menguat terhadap euro karena OECD menaikkan prediksi ekonomi Inggris tahun depan. Pound juga menuat terhadap yen dan Swiss franc karena indeks bank FTSE 350 menguat 2.5 persen, menghentikan penurunan selama 2 hari dan indeks benchmark FTSE100 menguat 1.2%. OECB merevisi ekonomi Inggris dari kontrak menjadi stabil di tahun depan. Pound dolar memiliki korelasi sekitar 79% dengan indeks bank FTSE 350, berdasarkan data dari Bloomberg. Sementara komentar gubernur BOE Mervyn King kemarin bahwa pemulihan ekonomi Inggris dari resesi akan lambat dan “tidak pasti membatasi dampak laporan kenaikan harga rumah mewah di Inggris.
KIE 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
10,255 12,150 (02/03) 9,900 (05/06) 0.7992 0.8263 (03/06) 0.6248 (02/02)
Kontrak Indeks Emas (USD-IDR) di sesi Asia hari ini melemah mengikuti pelemahan mayoritas mata uang dolar terhadap mata uang regional Asia setelah the Fed mempertahankan suku bunga dan mempertahankan kebijakan quantitative easing, menurunkan permintaan untuk dolar untuk pembayaran hutang korporasi dan pembayaran bunga surat berharga di akhir tutup buku kuartal 2 pada pekan ini. Sementara IMF dilaporkan akan merevisi naik prospek pertumbuhan ekonomi AS, dan Deutsche Bank memberikan rekomendasi Buy untuk saham RI. KIE berpotensi melemah lebih lanjut ke support Rp 10,250/10,000 dalam waktu dekat, menjelang rilisan data inflasi bulan Juni dan BI rate yang dapat dipangkas menjadi 6.75% dari 7.0% saat ini. IHSG menguat 42.27 poin hari ini menjadi 2,037.79, memberikan sentimen positif kepada pergerakan rupiah hari ini, menjelang testimony Fed Bernanke hari ini. Perkiraan range hingga besok: 10,100-10,350.
Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) menguat untuk hari ke-3 setelah pemerintah dan International Monetary Fund (IMF) mengatakan ekonomi akan pulih lebih cepat dari perkiraan sebelumnya. Aussie dan kiwi juga menguat karena kenaikan indeks saham Asia Pasifik hari ini dan the Fed tetap mempertahankan kebijakan moneternya dini hari tadi. Treasury Secretary Australia ken Henry mengatakan pertumbuhan ekonomi akan “somewhat stronger” dalam 12 bulan mendatang hingga 30 Juni ketimbang prediksi sebelumnya karena stimulus pemerintah dan melunaknya kebijakan moneter. IMF kemarin memprediksikan ekonomi akan terkontraksi lebih kecil dari perkiraan sebelumnya dan akan tumbuh dua kali lipat di tahun 2010. OECD kemarin juga memprediksikan ekonomi Australia akan meningkat 1.2% di tahun 2010 setelah terkontraksi 0.4% di tahun ini. Kiwi juga melemah setelah laporan pemerintah menunjukkan defisit negara perdagangan menyusut karena impor anjlok dan keuntungan perusahaan yang dimiliki asing merosot karena resesi terburuk lebih dari 3 dekade.
Technical Analysis
(+50p). Trend jangka pendek EURUSD terancam berubah jika gagal mempertahankan support line di 1.3835, didukung indikator MACD bullish, Stochastic crossing down, ADX menurun, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan laju kenaikan terbatas. Pola H&S dengan neckline di 1.3728, jika tembus dapat picu penurunan ke target 1.3419. Hitungan Elliot wave euro dolar dalam wave 2 koreksi dalam sub wave intermediate 4. Support di 1.3871 (projeksi penurunan 61.8)/1.3746 (low). Resistance di 1.4171 (downtrend line)/1.4196 (projection 100 FE). Buy 1.3830 & 1.3870 target di 1.4000 stop 60p, buy 1.3750 target 1.4000 stop 60p, sell 1.4080 target 1.3900 stop 60p. Sell 1.4170target 1.4000 stop diatas 1.4400.
(+60p; Hold buy 95.80 target 97.70 stop 95.00) USDJPY menunjukkan signal positif dari tembusnya resistance channel di 95.93 dan pola candle piercing bullish, didukung oleh indikator ADX menurun dan MACD bearish, stochastic terkoreksi turun, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan hari ini. Support berada di 95.31 (projection 61.8FE)/94.87 (low 23/06). Trend bearish karena ditutup dibawah 96.44 (10 MA)/96.18 (200 MA). Resistance berada di 97.10/97.66 (161.8 FE). Buy 95.90 target 97.10 stop 60p, sell 97.10 target 96.00 stop diatas 97.80, sell 98.70 target 97.00 stop 50p. buy 94.90 target 97.50 stop di 94.00.
(-100p hold sell 1.6400 target 1.6300/1.260 stop 60p). GBPUSD masih mempertahankan trend bullish karena menunjukkan pola bearish rising wedge meski tertahan di resistance line di 1.6531, meningkatkan potensi kenaikan terbatas selama masih berada di bawah level tersebut. Support berada di 1.6257 (projection 100.0 FE), seharusnya mempertahankan trend bullish di 1.6155. indikator ADX menunjukkan kenaikan. Tembusnya trendline resistance di 1.6515 dapat mendorong GBP ke target 1.6661/1.6814. Analisa EW menunjukkan proses zig zag wave c / iii minutte dalam dalam koreksi intemediate 4. Buy break 1.6520 target 1.6650 stop 100p, Sell break 1.6150 target 1.6050 stop 60p. Sell break 1.6020 target 1.5810 stop 50p. Sell 1.6640 target 1.6380 stop 30p. Buy break 1.6670 target 1.6820 stop 50p. Buy break 1.6830 target 1.7000 stop 60p. Buy 1.6260 target 1.6500 stop 60p. Buy 1.6130 target 1.6400.
(Hold buy 0.8000 target 0.8100 stop 0.7870). AUD-USD mulai mendapatkan signal positif dari tembusnya trendline di 0.7857 didukung oleh stochastic crossing up dan pola candle morning star (potensi bullishreversal), untuk mencapai diatas 0.8151 (61.8 FE)/0.8193 (resistance channel). Elliot wave menunjukkan proses wave zig zag c dalam wave intermediate 3. Buy break 0.7880 target 0.8150 stop 100p, buy 0.7780 target 0.8100 stop 60p. Sell 0.8100 target 0.7850 stop 50p, sell 0.8200 target 0.7800 stop 50p. Buy break 0.8210 target 0.8450.
Daily Technical Analysis Forex/DJIA/Gold
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank
EURUSD
Comment: Disappointing as we drop back to where we started yesterday and moving averages have crossed to negative. At best we see this as markets thrashing around, preparing to break out of recent ranges. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.3955; stop below 1.3800. Short term target 1.4100, then 1.4200 Direction of Trade: →↗
Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.3920 " 1.3976
1.3888 1.4013
1.385 1.4109
1.3826 1.4139
1.38 1.423
GBPUSD
Comment: Balking at the top of the 'triangle/pennant' as it goes it pretty much alone and hampered by the Swiss National Bank's intervention. It does however add weight to our view that Cable is trying to break higher out of recent consolidation. A weekly close above 1.6600 is needed to take bullish momentum back up to the very strong levels of early June. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6435, adding to 1.6300; stop below 1.6080. First target 1.6500, then 1.6600 Direction of Trade: →↗
Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.6415 " 1.635
1.6369 1.6507
1.6209 1.6562
1.6187 1.6622
1.612 1.6664
USDJPY
Comment: Bouncing to the 26-day moving average and holding below the Ichimoku 'cloud'. We expect prices to stall here this morning and then drift lower late today and Friday. Note that open interest is lower than it has been in at least five years.
Strategy: Sell at 96.20; stop above 97.35. First target 95.50, then 95.00
Direction of Trade: →↘Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
96.00 " 96.36
95.5 96.55
95 96.80*
94.88 97.27*
94.44 97.65
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
Rupee : The markets are currently holding slightly bearish bias . Breaking of 48.90 on the upside would confirmation of further weakness towards 49.50 and 49.95 . On the downside 48.00 levels is holding support. Incase we see the levels of 48.00 breaking we need to reconsider our weakness. Bearish (USD/INR : 48.50)
Gold :Gold is clearly bearish since its holding below its daily trend at $960. Our short positions initiated in 935 dollars are still on targeting below 900 dollars. (Gold- $934.43). Bearish
Dollar Index :DX bounced back from 79.56 levels yesterday and is currently trading above 80-mark. The chart is turning bullish since the downtrend line has been broken and market is holding above 80 levels. Till we see the levels above 80 the index holds bullish. (DI- 80.75) Bullish
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 8357.46 and 8233.70(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8187.19, where correction also can be. Then follows 8118.68. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8100.00. Continuation will bring 8080.31.Today's resistance: - 8339.06, 8381.28 and 8426.26(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8461.30, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8500.00, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8562.26. Continuation would bring 8597.80 and 8628.75.
EURUSD
Comment: Disappointing as we drop back to where we started yesterday and moving averages have crossed to negative. At best we see this as markets thrashing around, preparing to break out of recent ranges. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.3955; stop below 1.3800. Short term target 1.4100, then 1.4200 Direction of Trade: →↗
Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.3920 " 1.3976
1.3888 1.4013
1.385 1.4109
1.3826 1.4139
1.38 1.423
GBPUSD
Comment: Balking at the top of the 'triangle/pennant' as it goes it pretty much alone and hampered by the Swiss National Bank's intervention. It does however add weight to our view that Cable is trying to break higher out of recent consolidation. A weekly close above 1.6600 is needed to take bullish momentum back up to the very strong levels of early June. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6435, adding to 1.6300; stop below 1.6080. First target 1.6500, then 1.6600 Direction of Trade: →↗
Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.6415 " 1.635
1.6369 1.6507
1.6209 1.6562
1.6187 1.6622
1.612 1.6664
USDJPY
Comment: Bouncing to the 26-day moving average and holding below the Ichimoku 'cloud'. We expect prices to stall here this morning and then drift lower late today and Friday. Note that open interest is lower than it has been in at least five years.
Strategy: Sell at 96.20; stop above 97.35. First target 95.50, then 95.00
Direction of Trade: →↘Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
96.00 " 96.36
95.5 96.55
95 96.80*
94.88 97.27*
94.44 97.65
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
Rupee : The markets are currently holding slightly bearish bias . Breaking of 48.90 on the upside would confirmation of further weakness towards 49.50 and 49.95 . On the downside 48.00 levels is holding support. Incase we see the levels of 48.00 breaking we need to reconsider our weakness. Bearish (USD/INR : 48.50)
Gold :Gold is clearly bearish since its holding below its daily trend at $960. Our short positions initiated in 935 dollars are still on targeting below 900 dollars. (Gold- $934.43). Bearish
Dollar Index :DX bounced back from 79.56 levels yesterday and is currently trading above 80-mark. The chart is turning bullish since the downtrend line has been broken and market is holding above 80 levels. Till we see the levels above 80 the index holds bullish. (DI- 80.75) Bullish
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 8357.46 and 8233.70(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8187.19, where correction also can be. Then follows 8118.68. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8100.00. Continuation will bring 8080.31.Today's resistance: - 8339.06, 8381.28 and 8426.26(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8461.30, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8500.00, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8562.26. Continuation would bring 8597.80 and 8628.75.
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Signal Bullish Reversal Kembali Menopang Kinerja IHSG
Market Review
Kemarin IHSG mampu membayar penurunan selama 2 hari di awal pekan ini, berkat sejumlah faktor positif menguatkan saham di semua sektor, terutama di sektor pertambangan yang menguat 8.93% setelah harga minyak dan komoditas lainnya mengalami rebound, mengikuti kenaikan saham Wall Street dan Regional Asia kemarin. Saahm property, perbankan dan infrastruktur ikut mengalami penguatan berkat penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar (penutupan Rp 10,330 kemarin) dan perkiraan data inflasi RI bulan Juni akan kembali menurun dan mendorong perkiraan penurunan suku bunga BI di pekan depan. Kemenangan Ito Warsito sebagai direktur Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) yang baru, menggantikan Erry Firmansyah kemarin, ikut memberikan sentimen positif kepada IHSG. Indeks melejit 81.289 poin (+4.24%), ditutup di 1,995.674, dengan nilai transaksi tercatat Rp 4.488 triliun. Net buying investor asing sebesar Rp 42.359 miliar, naik dibanding net sell Rp 270.702 miliar hari Rabu (24/06).
Indeks saham di Asia-Pasifik rebound dari level terendah 4-pekan, karena membaiknya hubungan antara Taiwan dan China dan perusahaan teknologi Oracle Corp yang memberikan signal permintaan untuk semikonduktor meningkat. Spekulasi the Fed akan mempertahankan suku bunga dan kebijakan quantitative easing hari Rabu dan kenaikan data perumahan AS hari Selasa, ikut memberikan momentum positif.
IHSG Outlook
Munculnya sejumlah faktor positif dari dalam dan luar negeri dapat menguatkan IHSG di akhir pekan ini,. Faktor penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar (target Rp 10,250/10,000) setelah kenaikan saham lokal memberikan sentimen yang kuat untuk capital inflow ke aset domestik. Diikuti laporan International Monetary Fund (IMF) di bulan depan akan menaikkan prospek pertumbuhan ekonomi negara emerging termasuk Indonesia dan Organization for Economic Cooperation (OECD) menaikkan prediksi ekonomi 30 negara anggota untuk pertama kali dalam 2 tahun terakhir, memprediksikan pertumbuhan ekonomi RI sebesar 3.5% di 2009 dan 4.8% di 2010, serta Deutsche Bank memberikan rating “Buy untuk weakness” saham Indonesia (Top 10 pilihan: ASII, BDMN, TLKM) karena penurunan saham lokal baru-baru ini memberikan peluang “buy on weakness karena inflasi dan suku bunga menurun, stabilnya rupiah dan membaiknya situasi politik. Reboundnya harga minyak ($ 69.42/barel kemarin; penurunan inventory untuk pekan ke-3) dan reboundnya indeks regional, dapat menopang kinerja IHSG.
Hold: (target >20%, risk <10%): BUMI/BNBR/ENRG/DEWA. MNCN/BMTR. ASII,AALI,UNTR,INKP,TKIM,HEXA,BBRI,BMRI,TRUB,INCO.Buy: ANTM/LSIP
Stock Picks:
* ANTM Buy target Rp 2,800
* MEDC Hold target Rp 3,400
Global Outlook
Seperti diperkirakan kemarin, laju penurunan indeks saham global baru-baru ini, merupakan sebuah koreksi dalam “BULL MARKET”, didukung meningkatnya sentimen positif dari kenaikan harga komoditas global (minyak naik ke $ 69.50 berkat inventory minyak anjlok untuk pekan ke-3), Organization for Economic Cooperation (OECD) menaikkan prediksi ekonomi 30 negara anggota di tahun 2009/2010 untuk pertama kali dalam 2 tahun terakhir, karena melihat tekanan resesi ekonomi AS mulai mereda, IMF di bulan depan akan menaikkan prospek pertumbuhan ekonomi sejumlah negara emerging di Asia dan data Durable Goods AS yang tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan (+1.8% m.m), New Home Sales AS merosot 0.6% menjadi 342,000. Meski laju penguatan indeks regional terbatas, menjelang testimony Chairman Fed Benanke hari ini, setelah the Fed menahan laju suku bunga kemarin.
Technical Analysis:
Pola candle bullish engulfing (medium reliability bullish reversal) dan ditutup diatas perkiraan kemarin di 1,963 (ex-trendline support) dan dapat ditutup diatas 1,960 (38.2 Fibonacci retracement 2,116-1,708), meski tidak didukung kenaikan volume yang signifikan, meredam tekanan netral dan dapat melanjutkan trend bullish jangka pendek, terutama jika downtrend line di 2,061 ditembus untuk target 2,150 (projeksi 61.8% FE)/2,165 (61.8% FR 2,835/1,089) dalam 1-3 pekan mendatang, selama ditutup diatas 1,912 (50.0% FR). Indikator ADX menunjukkan koreksi turun tipis, stochastic oversold, MACD masih bullish, seharusnya menunjukkan technical rebound akan berlanjut hari ini. Penutupan dibawah 1,8454 (50-day MA)/1,807 (support line) dapat memperburuk kondisi trend IHSG. Hitungan Elliot Wave: indeks berada dalam proses wave b setelah jika a telah selesai di 1,888.8 dalam wave 4 subwave intermediate (4) / (B).
Resistance: 2091.00/2050.15/2036.53/2022.91. PP 1968.44
Support : 1954.82/1941.20/1913.97/1886.73
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 1,970 - 2,050)
Kemarin IHSG mampu membayar penurunan selama 2 hari di awal pekan ini, berkat sejumlah faktor positif menguatkan saham di semua sektor, terutama di sektor pertambangan yang menguat 8.93% setelah harga minyak dan komoditas lainnya mengalami rebound, mengikuti kenaikan saham Wall Street dan Regional Asia kemarin. Saahm property, perbankan dan infrastruktur ikut mengalami penguatan berkat penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar (penutupan Rp 10,330 kemarin) dan perkiraan data inflasi RI bulan Juni akan kembali menurun dan mendorong perkiraan penurunan suku bunga BI di pekan depan. Kemenangan Ito Warsito sebagai direktur Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) yang baru, menggantikan Erry Firmansyah kemarin, ikut memberikan sentimen positif kepada IHSG. Indeks melejit 81.289 poin (+4.24%), ditutup di 1,995.674, dengan nilai transaksi tercatat Rp 4.488 triliun. Net buying investor asing sebesar Rp 42.359 miliar, naik dibanding net sell Rp 270.702 miliar hari Rabu (24/06).
Indeks saham di Asia-Pasifik rebound dari level terendah 4-pekan, karena membaiknya hubungan antara Taiwan dan China dan perusahaan teknologi Oracle Corp yang memberikan signal permintaan untuk semikonduktor meningkat. Spekulasi the Fed akan mempertahankan suku bunga dan kebijakan quantitative easing hari Rabu dan kenaikan data perumahan AS hari Selasa, ikut memberikan momentum positif.
IHSG Outlook
Munculnya sejumlah faktor positif dari dalam dan luar negeri dapat menguatkan IHSG di akhir pekan ini,. Faktor penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar (target Rp 10,250/10,000) setelah kenaikan saham lokal memberikan sentimen yang kuat untuk capital inflow ke aset domestik. Diikuti laporan International Monetary Fund (IMF) di bulan depan akan menaikkan prospek pertumbuhan ekonomi negara emerging termasuk Indonesia dan Organization for Economic Cooperation (OECD) menaikkan prediksi ekonomi 30 negara anggota untuk pertama kali dalam 2 tahun terakhir, memprediksikan pertumbuhan ekonomi RI sebesar 3.5% di 2009 dan 4.8% di 2010, serta Deutsche Bank memberikan rating “Buy untuk weakness” saham Indonesia (Top 10 pilihan: ASII, BDMN, TLKM) karena penurunan saham lokal baru-baru ini memberikan peluang “buy on weakness karena inflasi dan suku bunga menurun, stabilnya rupiah dan membaiknya situasi politik. Reboundnya harga minyak ($ 69.42/barel kemarin; penurunan inventory untuk pekan ke-3) dan reboundnya indeks regional, dapat menopang kinerja IHSG.
Hold: (target >20%, risk <10%): BUMI/BNBR/ENRG/DEWA. MNCN/BMTR. ASII,AALI,UNTR,INKP,TKIM,HEXA,BBRI,BMRI,TRUB,INCO.Buy: ANTM/LSIP
Stock Picks:
* ANTM Buy target Rp 2,800
* MEDC Hold target Rp 3,400
Global Outlook
Seperti diperkirakan kemarin, laju penurunan indeks saham global baru-baru ini, merupakan sebuah koreksi dalam “BULL MARKET”, didukung meningkatnya sentimen positif dari kenaikan harga komoditas global (minyak naik ke $ 69.50 berkat inventory minyak anjlok untuk pekan ke-3), Organization for Economic Cooperation (OECD) menaikkan prediksi ekonomi 30 negara anggota di tahun 2009/2010 untuk pertama kali dalam 2 tahun terakhir, karena melihat tekanan resesi ekonomi AS mulai mereda, IMF di bulan depan akan menaikkan prospek pertumbuhan ekonomi sejumlah negara emerging di Asia dan data Durable Goods AS yang tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan (+1.8% m.m), New Home Sales AS merosot 0.6% menjadi 342,000. Meski laju penguatan indeks regional terbatas, menjelang testimony Chairman Fed Benanke hari ini, setelah the Fed menahan laju suku bunga kemarin.
Technical Analysis:
Pola candle bullish engulfing (medium reliability bullish reversal) dan ditutup diatas perkiraan kemarin di 1,963 (ex-trendline support) dan dapat ditutup diatas 1,960 (38.2 Fibonacci retracement 2,116-1,708), meski tidak didukung kenaikan volume yang signifikan, meredam tekanan netral dan dapat melanjutkan trend bullish jangka pendek, terutama jika downtrend line di 2,061 ditembus untuk target 2,150 (projeksi 61.8% FE)/2,165 (61.8% FR 2,835/1,089) dalam 1-3 pekan mendatang, selama ditutup diatas 1,912 (50.0% FR). Indikator ADX menunjukkan koreksi turun tipis, stochastic oversold, MACD masih bullish, seharusnya menunjukkan technical rebound akan berlanjut hari ini. Penutupan dibawah 1,8454 (50-day MA)/1,807 (support line) dapat memperburuk kondisi trend IHSG. Hitungan Elliot Wave: indeks berada dalam proses wave b setelah jika a telah selesai di 1,888.8 dalam wave 4 subwave intermediate (4) / (B).
Resistance: 2091.00/2050.15/2036.53/2022.91. PP 1968.44
Support : 1954.82/1941.20/1913.97/1886.73
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 1,970 - 2,050)
Momentum Indeks Regional Masih Kuat
SSIU9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
9755 9610 9820 9510 9920 9730 10020 9360 9440 9600 9840 9920 10080
Commentary
Di chart 4 jam, trend jangka pendek indeks SSIU9 masih berada dalam trend bearish, setelah indeks ditutup dibawah resistance line di 9,776, dimana dapat mengarahkan indeks ke support berikutnya di 9401 (support channel)/9285 (uptrend line). Indikator teknikal ADX menunjukkan koreksi penurunan, stochastic dan MACD berada dalam teritorial negatif, dan indeks masih berada dalam downtrend channel, seharusnya dapat mendorong technical rebound hari ini. Penutupan indeks dibawah 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement di 97.25, masih membebani kinerja trend bearish indeks. Perkiraan range hari ini pada kisaran 9400-9800.
Rekomendasi : Buy 9470/9500 target 9750 stop 100p, buy break 9900 target 10100 stop 100p, Sell 9770 target 9,600 stop 50p. Buy 9300 target 9850 stop 100p. (-50p+50p)
KSU9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
174.00 174.2 177.3 173.2 178.1 175.0 179.1 169.8 171.1 172.6 175.4 176.7 178.2
Commentary
Dalam chart 4-jam, indeks KSU9 berada dalam pola congestion di kisaran range 184.15-172.60, didukung oleh Indikator teknikal MACD dan stochastic berada dalam kondisi oversold, ADX terlihat terkoreksi turun, menunjukkan potensi technical rebound hari ini. Indeks dapat melanjutkan laju kenaikan jika indeks dapat menembus resistance line di 179.76, bilamana break target 184.10 (double top di chart 4 jam). Tetapi jika indeks ditutup dibawah support line di 172.15, trend akan berbalik bearish, target 170.11 (50.0 FR)/166.80 (61.8 FR). Perkiraan range hari ini: 172.00-177.00
Rekomendasi : Buy 172.30 target 176.00 stop 50p, buy break 175.40 target 178.00 stop 100p. Buy break 178.70 target 179.70. Sell break 172.00 target 170.50 stop 100p. Sell 179.40 target 175.50 stop 100p. (+200p).
HSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
17950 17813 18125 17713 18203 17969 18303 17062 17243 17597 18132 18313 18667
Commentary
Dalam chart 4 jam, indeks menunjukkan pola downtrend channel dan berpotensi menunjukkan pola head & shoulder jika indeks bertahan di atas support 17321 (61.8 FR 19090-16195). Trend masih netral, setelah indeks ditutup dibawah 17,648 dapat mengarahkan indeks ke target 17126 (support channel)/16873 (76.4 FR), selama gagal ditutup diatas 17,943 (38.2% FR). Indikator teknikal ADX menunjukkan penurunan stochastic crossing up, meski MACD masih berada di teritorial netral, menunjukkan potensi technical rebound lebih lanjut. Daily candle menunjukkan doji star, seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan hari ini. Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks masih berada dalam wave a dalam subwave motive (3) telah berakhir di di 19,100 dalam cycle B. Perkiraan range hari ini : 17.600-18.400
Rekomendasi : Buy 17,630 target 18030 (or closing) stop 100 p. buy break 18080 target 18380 stop 100 poin. Sell 18400 target 17850 stop 100p. Buy 17150 target 17650 stop 60p. Sell break 17100 target 16870 stop 100p. (+300p).
9755 9610 9820 9510 9920 9730 10020 9360 9440 9600 9840 9920 10080
Commentary
Di chart 4 jam, trend jangka pendek indeks SSIU9 masih berada dalam trend bearish, setelah indeks ditutup dibawah resistance line di 9,776, dimana dapat mengarahkan indeks ke support berikutnya di 9401 (support channel)/9285 (uptrend line). Indikator teknikal ADX menunjukkan koreksi penurunan, stochastic dan MACD berada dalam teritorial negatif, dan indeks masih berada dalam downtrend channel, seharusnya dapat mendorong technical rebound hari ini. Penutupan indeks dibawah 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement di 97.25, masih membebani kinerja trend bearish indeks. Perkiraan range hari ini pada kisaran 9400-9800.
Rekomendasi : Buy 9470/9500 target 9750 stop 100p, buy break 9900 target 10100 stop 100p, Sell 9770 target 9,600 stop 50p. Buy 9300 target 9850 stop 100p. (-50p+50p)
KSU9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
174.00 174.2 177.3 173.2 178.1 175.0 179.1 169.8 171.1 172.6 175.4 176.7 178.2
Commentary
Dalam chart 4-jam, indeks KSU9 berada dalam pola congestion di kisaran range 184.15-172.60, didukung oleh Indikator teknikal MACD dan stochastic berada dalam kondisi oversold, ADX terlihat terkoreksi turun, menunjukkan potensi technical rebound hari ini. Indeks dapat melanjutkan laju kenaikan jika indeks dapat menembus resistance line di 179.76, bilamana break target 184.10 (double top di chart 4 jam). Tetapi jika indeks ditutup dibawah support line di 172.15, trend akan berbalik bearish, target 170.11 (50.0 FR)/166.80 (61.8 FR). Perkiraan range hari ini: 172.00-177.00
Rekomendasi : Buy 172.30 target 176.00 stop 50p, buy break 175.40 target 178.00 stop 100p. Buy break 178.70 target 179.70. Sell break 172.00 target 170.50 stop 100p. Sell 179.40 target 175.50 stop 100p. (+200p).
HSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
17950 17813 18125 17713 18203 17969 18303 17062 17243 17597 18132 18313 18667
Commentary
Dalam chart 4 jam, indeks menunjukkan pola downtrend channel dan berpotensi menunjukkan pola head & shoulder jika indeks bertahan di atas support 17321 (61.8 FR 19090-16195). Trend masih netral, setelah indeks ditutup dibawah 17,648 dapat mengarahkan indeks ke target 17126 (support channel)/16873 (76.4 FR), selama gagal ditutup diatas 17,943 (38.2% FR). Indikator teknikal ADX menunjukkan penurunan stochastic crossing up, meski MACD masih berada di teritorial netral, menunjukkan potensi technical rebound lebih lanjut. Daily candle menunjukkan doji star, seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan hari ini. Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks masih berada dalam wave a dalam subwave motive (3) telah berakhir di di 19,100 dalam cycle B. Perkiraan range hari ini : 17.600-18.400
Rekomendasi : Buy 17,630 target 18030 (or closing) stop 100 p. buy break 18080 target 18380 stop 100 poin. Sell 18400 target 17850 stop 100p. Buy 17150 target 17650 stop 60p. Sell break 17100 target 16870 stop 100p. (+300p).
Rupiah May Rise 6.6 Percent in Three Months: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The Indonesian rupiah may strengthen 6.6 percent to 9,785 per dollar in three months, Standard Chartered Plc said, citing trading patterns. The gain would represent a 76.4 percent retracement of the currency’s slide to a decade low of 13,150 in November, from a high of 8,640 in May 2007, Callum Henderson, Standard Chartered’s global head of currency strategy, wrote in a report, referring to numbers in the Fibonacci sequence. “The dollar-rupiah is expected to consolidate below 10,675, but the three-month view is for dollar-rupiah to drop below 10,000 and head toward 9,785,” Singapore-based Henderson wrote in his report dated today. “Technically, clients should sell ahead of 10,675.”
The rupiah climbed 0.7 percent to 10,433 as of 11:43 p.m. in Jakarta, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It has risen 4.5 percent this year, the best performance among the 10 most-active currencies in Asia outside Japan. In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Fibonacci levels are used to determine highs and lows for a currency and predict direction. They include 23.6, 50, 38.2, 61.8 and 76.4 percent. A break past one of these signals a currency may test the next level, while failure indicates a gain or drop may stall.
The rupiah climbed 0.7 percent to 10,433 as of 11:43 p.m. in Jakarta, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It has risen 4.5 percent this year, the best performance among the 10 most-active currencies in Asia outside Japan. In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Fibonacci levels are used to determine highs and lows for a currency and predict direction. They include 23.6, 50, 38.2, 61.8 and 76.4 percent. A break past one of these signals a currency may test the next level, while failure indicates a gain or drop may stall.
S&P 500 ‘Golden Cross’ Signals Stock Gains: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is poised to extend its 32 percent rally from a 12-year low in March, according to a technical indicator called the “golden cross” that’s considered a bullish signal by analysts who make predictions based on patterns in price charts. The 50-day moving average for the S&P 500 exceeded its average price for the prior 200 days yesterday for the first time since December 2007. A 50-day average moving higher than a 200-day average is termed a “golden cross” by technical analysts.“It’s a good long-term signal,” said John Schlitz, the New York-based chief market technician at Instinet, a unit of Nomura Holdings Inc. that handles about 5 percent of U.S. equity trading. “It’ll be important if over the next month or two it can maintain it.”
The S&P 500 added 0.2 percent to 895.10 yesterday, rebounding from the 3.1 percent plunge a day earlier that was the steepest in two months. The index has rallied since March on speculation the economic contraction is slowing. Its 50-day average rose to 899.36 yesterday, while the 200-day average fell to 899.03, down from 1,184.58 at the end of last year.“Some people also are viewing it as being not quite as potent as they would like, because there’s still a pretty good downward slope to the 200,” Schlitz said.
The S&P 500 added 0.2 percent to 895.10 yesterday, rebounding from the 3.1 percent plunge a day earlier that was the steepest in two months. The index has rallied since March on speculation the economic contraction is slowing. Its 50-day average rose to 899.36 yesterday, while the 200-day average fell to 899.03, down from 1,184.58 at the end of last year.“Some people also are viewing it as being not quite as potent as they would like, because there’s still a pretty good downward slope to the 200,” Schlitz said.
In Contrast With World Bank, OECD Upgraded Economic Forecasts
Written by Oil N' Gold
Commodity prices remains steady in European morning as OECD's upgrade in economic outlook lend some support.WTI crude oil for August delivery trades below 69 ahead of inventory data while gold price surges to 931, up 6 dollar from yesterday's close before pulling back.OECD revised up its GDP forecasts on advanced economy to -4.1% in 2009, compared with -4.3% projected in March. Growth in 2010 will increase +0.7%, also higher than +0.1% in March. The organization anticipated the upside will mainly come from the US as recession will likely trough in 2H09. OECD expected US' economy will contract -2.8% (March's forecast: -4%) this year and grow by +0.9% (March's forecast: 0%) in 2010.However, economic outlooks for Japan and the European were worse than before. Japan's economy will shrink -6.8% in 2009 before rebounding to +0.7% in 2010. These are compared with respective projections or -6.6% and -0.5% in March. For the Eurozone, GDP will likely contract -4.8% in 2009, more severe than -4.1% as estimated in March.
Concerning interest rates, the OECD believed both the Fed and BOJ will not raise interest rates before 2011 while the ECB should cut further.China continues to be the growth driver and the organization forecast that the world's 3rd largest economy will growth +7.7% and +9.3% in 2009 and 2010 respectively.In the near-term, gold price may remain in consolidation with downside risk. In response to the worst recession since World War II, governments worldwide have adopted various monetary and fiscal stimulus programs. Improvements in real economic data have started to revive investors' confidence. While market sentiment will fluctuate according to results of economic data and agencies' growth forecast, the worst phase of risk aversion has probably passed. Gold investment as a result of fear of a financial system breakdown has been reduced. As it's widely expected that any recovery will occur slowly and modestly, near-term risk of inflation is imminent, thus diminishing gold's appeal as inflation hedge. Moreover, gold price's movement will continue to be directed by the dollar, especially EUR/USD. Recent data signaled that the US may come out of recession sooner than the Eurozone, and therefore it's reasonable to expect limited downside for the dollar (or upside for EUR/USD).
That said, we are still in the midst of the worst crisis and governments worldwide will likely adopt a 'wait and see' manner - keeping interest rates at unprecedentedly low levels and maintaining the previously announced QE programs- until solid evidence of recovery is seen. We worry that countries that employed massive stimulus policies may not be able to 'exit' on a timely manner and eventually result in huge inflation and currency depreciations. That is why we believe gold's attractiveness will return and we remain bullish in the precious metal in the long-term.While inventory and demand data always trigger ups and downs in crude oil and other energy prices, it do not affect gold prices as seriously. Although gold prices respond temporarily to rises and falls in jewelry demand, productions from mines as well as sales from central banks, the movements are short-lived.
Sources on gold supply are mainly from mine production, recovery from scrap and sales from central banks. Over the past few years, supply has remained stable at around 3500-4000 metric tons and we expect it will stay more or less the same at that level. On the demand side, jewelry demand, though still dominant, will continue to decrease while investment demand will rise.Rather gold's price dynamics are driven more significantly by the macro-economy which is also the major determinant of other currencies' movement. We have found that gold price has experience high correlation with EUR/USD. From 2000 to late 2004 (before launch of gold ETF in the US), the correlation between gold and EUR/USD was as high as 0.96 From late 2004 to September 2008 (before Lehman's collapse), the correlation was 0.86. Despite the decline, it remained at a high level and we believe the rest could be explained by inflationary concerns, especially from 2H07 to 1H08.
In late 2007, bankruptcy of Lehman was followed by bad news some many other banks and these fueled worries about security of global financial systems. Investors' flight to gold as safe-haven investment temporarily derailed its correlation with EUR/USD. However, the chart below showed that the relationship built up again in March 2009 and remain prominent so far.
Commodity prices remains steady in European morning as OECD's upgrade in economic outlook lend some support.WTI crude oil for August delivery trades below 69 ahead of inventory data while gold price surges to 931, up 6 dollar from yesterday's close before pulling back.OECD revised up its GDP forecasts on advanced economy to -4.1% in 2009, compared with -4.3% projected in March. Growth in 2010 will increase +0.7%, also higher than +0.1% in March. The organization anticipated the upside will mainly come from the US as recession will likely trough in 2H09. OECD expected US' economy will contract -2.8% (March's forecast: -4%) this year and grow by +0.9% (March's forecast: 0%) in 2010.However, economic outlooks for Japan and the European were worse than before. Japan's economy will shrink -6.8% in 2009 before rebounding to +0.7% in 2010. These are compared with respective projections or -6.6% and -0.5% in March. For the Eurozone, GDP will likely contract -4.8% in 2009, more severe than -4.1% as estimated in March.
Concerning interest rates, the OECD believed both the Fed and BOJ will not raise interest rates before 2011 while the ECB should cut further.China continues to be the growth driver and the organization forecast that the world's 3rd largest economy will growth +7.7% and +9.3% in 2009 and 2010 respectively.In the near-term, gold price may remain in consolidation with downside risk. In response to the worst recession since World War II, governments worldwide have adopted various monetary and fiscal stimulus programs. Improvements in real economic data have started to revive investors' confidence. While market sentiment will fluctuate according to results of economic data and agencies' growth forecast, the worst phase of risk aversion has probably passed. Gold investment as a result of fear of a financial system breakdown has been reduced. As it's widely expected that any recovery will occur slowly and modestly, near-term risk of inflation is imminent, thus diminishing gold's appeal as inflation hedge. Moreover, gold price's movement will continue to be directed by the dollar, especially EUR/USD. Recent data signaled that the US may come out of recession sooner than the Eurozone, and therefore it's reasonable to expect limited downside for the dollar (or upside for EUR/USD).
That said, we are still in the midst of the worst crisis and governments worldwide will likely adopt a 'wait and see' manner - keeping interest rates at unprecedentedly low levels and maintaining the previously announced QE programs- until solid evidence of recovery is seen. We worry that countries that employed massive stimulus policies may not be able to 'exit' on a timely manner and eventually result in huge inflation and currency depreciations. That is why we believe gold's attractiveness will return and we remain bullish in the precious metal in the long-term.While inventory and demand data always trigger ups and downs in crude oil and other energy prices, it do not affect gold prices as seriously. Although gold prices respond temporarily to rises and falls in jewelry demand, productions from mines as well as sales from central banks, the movements are short-lived.
Sources on gold supply are mainly from mine production, recovery from scrap and sales from central banks. Over the past few years, supply has remained stable at around 3500-4000 metric tons and we expect it will stay more or less the same at that level. On the demand side, jewelry demand, though still dominant, will continue to decrease while investment demand will rise.Rather gold's price dynamics are driven more significantly by the macro-economy which is also the major determinant of other currencies' movement. We have found that gold price has experience high correlation with EUR/USD. From 2000 to late 2004 (before launch of gold ETF in the US), the correlation between gold and EUR/USD was as high as 0.96 From late 2004 to September 2008 (before Lehman's collapse), the correlation was 0.86. Despite the decline, it remained at a high level and we believe the rest could be explained by inflationary concerns, especially from 2H07 to 1H08.
In late 2007, bankruptcy of Lehman was followed by bad news some many other banks and these fueled worries about security of global financial systems. Investors' flight to gold as safe-haven investment temporarily derailed its correlation with EUR/USD. However, the chart below showed that the relationship built up again in March 2009 and remain prominent so far.
Dolar Terpukul Oleh Ekspektasi FOMC & Isu Rating Kredit AS
USD Index 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low EUR-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
79.85 89.62 (04/03) 78.59 (01/06) 1.4075 1.4337 (03/06) 1.2459 (04/03)
Dolar mendapatkan tekanan lebih lanjut di sesi Asia hari ini, setelah dolar AS mendapatkan sentimen negatif dari sejumlah faktor yang membebani kinerja dolar AS yang sebelumnya menguat. Perkiraan the Fed akan mempertahankan suku bunga pada hari ini, menurunnya peluang kenaikan suku bunga the Fed di akhir tahun khususnya setelah World Bank relatif pesimis terhadap prediksi ekonomi global di tahun 2009/2010 dan munculnya kembali kekhawatiran mengenai rating kredit AAA milik AS setelah Moodys mengatakan rating AS masih aman, dan beresiko jika pemerintah tidak dapat menurunkan hutang publik dan jika dolar AS tertantang sebagai mata uang cadangan devisa global, berperan membebani kinerja dolar AS hingga sesi Asia hari ini. Perkiraan profit-taking menjelang hasil keputusan suku bunga AS malam ini dan lelang Treasury AS 2-tahun sukses semalam dan data Existing Home Sales tercatat +2.4% di bulan Mei, ikut menurunkan daya tarik untuk dolar AS.
Euro melemah terhadap dolar dan yen setelah kekhawatiran mengenai rating kredit AAA milik AS dan laporan ekspor Jepang merosot ke rekor tercepat di bulan lalu, menurunkan daya tarik untuk mata uang safe haven seperti dolar dan yen mendapatkan keuntungan dari pelarian di saat resesi global. Spekulasi the Fed akan mempertahan kan suku bunga 0.25% hingga bulan Desember dan mempertahankan pembelian Treasury sebesar $ 300 miliar, masih memberikan keuntungan kepada euro. Sementara dari Eropa menunjukkan sisi positif dari peluang pejabat bank sentral Eropa hari ini akan memberikan signal menahan diri untuk menurunkan suku bunga, mempertahankan daya tarik untuk euro. Anggota dewan kebijakan Axel Webber mengatakan bank sentral telah memiliki peluang untuk menurunkan suku bunga kembali. Sementara peluang profit-taking menjelang FOMC dan data ekonomi nanti malam dapat membatasi potensi penguatan euro.
USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
95.29 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.6440 1.6661 (03/06) 1.3502 (23/01)
Yen mengalami tekanan terhadap dolar dan euro di sesi Asia hari ini, setelah indeks saham Asia-Pasifik MSCI dan Nikkei 225 stock average yang menguat 50.57 (9,600.18) menjelang pertemuan FOMC yang dapat memicu aksi profit-taking posisi long yen terhadap dolar dan euro dan data ekspor Jepang yang anjlok 40.9% di bulan Mei dari penurunan 39.1% di bulan sebelumnya, menimbulkan keraguan mengenai prospek pertumbuhan ekonomi Jepang yang berjuang untuk pulih dari resesi terburuk sejak resesi paska Perang Dunia II. Anggota dewan bank sentral Jepang Seiji Nakamura mengatakan ekonomi terbesar kedua di dunia akan membutuhkan beberapa waktu untuk pulih. Sementara perusahaan besar di Jepang akan membayar rata-rata 754,009 yen ($ 7,900) untuk bonus musim panas di tahun ini, dimana perusahaan Jepang membayar bonus 2 kali setahun sebagai bagian dari paket kompensasi. Potensi penguatan yen terbatas menjelang pertemuan FOMC dan data ekonomi AS hari ini.
Pound sterling melemah untuk hari ke-2 terhadap euro, meski menguat lebih lanjut terhadap dolar AS mengikuti penurunan indeks USD sejak kemarin, setelah Chief Economist bank sentral Inggris Spencer Dale mengatakan mata uang yang lebih lemah membuat aset Inggris menjadi lebih menarik untuk investor asing. Spencer Dale juga mengatakan mata uang merupakan “key channel” yang dapat digunakan untuk meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Indeks saham FTSE 100 yang melemah 0.1%, menahan laju penguatan pound. Pound sebelumnya sempat terbebani oleh laporan Rightmove dua hari lalu, yang mengatakan harga rata-rata rumah di Inggris merosot 0.4% di bulan Juni, penurunan pertama dalam 5 bulan terakhir. Munculnya kekhawatiran terhadap rating kredit AAA milik AS berkat pernyataan dari Moodys diikuti spekulasi the Fed akan mempertahankan suku bunga hari ini, dapat memberikan momentum penguatan pound.
KIE 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
10,465 12,150 (02/03) 9,900 (05/06) 0.7937 0.8263 (03/06) 0.6248 (02/02)
Kontrak Indeks Emas (USD-IDR) di sesi Asia hari ini melemah mengikuti pelemahan mayoritas mata uang dolar terhadap mata uang regional Asia karena meredanya sentimen dari investor yang melakukan risk aversion setelah saham dan komoditi global menguat hari ini, menurunkan permintaan untuk dolar untuk pembayaran hutang korporasi dan pembayaran bunga surat berharga di akhir tutup buku kuartal 2 pada pekan ini. Meski Goldman Sachs hari ini merekomendasikan pembelian kontrak forward rupiah, rupee India dan yuan dalam periode 6 bulan. Goldman melhat rupiah akan menguat ke Rp 9,200 di akhir tahun, karena penurunan ekspor Indonesia telah mencapai bottom dan konsumsi domestik meningkat karena stimulus akan memberikan hasil positif. Meski KIE masih bertahan dibawah level resistance teknikal di Rp 10,650, mendapatkan support dari lelang 3 SUN senilai Rp 2 triliun dan masih berlanjutnya aksi intervensi oleh Bank Indonesia untuk menahan laju rupiah pada pekan ini. IHSG menguat 53.56 hari ini menjadi 1,967.945 (level terendah 1,913.965) memberikan sentimen positif kepada pergerakan rupiah hari ini, menjelang pertemuan bank sentral AS hari ini yang diperkirakan tetap mempertahankan suku bunga 0.0-0.25%. Perkiraan range hingga besok: 10,300-10,550.
Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) tidak berubah di sesi Asia hari ini setelah menguat untuk hari ke-4 dalam 5 hari terakhir di tengah spekulasi suku bunga AS masih akan tetap rendah untuk sementara waktu, meningkatkan permintaan untuk aset yang memiliki yield yang lebih tinggi. Aussie dan Kiwi menguat terhadap dolar berkat spekulasi the Fed akan mempertahankan suku bunga menjadi nol persen di sepanjang tahun ini. Permintaan untuk aset yang memiliki yield yang lebih tinggi dipicu oleh bank sentral Eropa yang mendesak bank-bank untuk melakukan penawaran dalam lelang pertama untuk pinjaman 12-bulan, memicu spekulasi dana tersebut menjadi mudah didapat untuk diinvestasikan di negara yang memiliki suku bunga yang lebih tinggi.
Technical Analysis
(+130p-20p+150p). EUR-USD menunjukkan trend bullish setelah pola resistance line di bullish pennant di 1.3959 di chart daily berhasil ditembus kemarin, didukung indikator MACD bullish, Stochastic crossing up, ADX flat, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan laju kenaikan lebih lanjut. Pola H&S dengan neckline di 1.3728, jika tembus dapat picu penurunan ke target 1.3419. Hitungan Elliot wave euro dolar dalam wave 2 koreksi dalam sub wave intermediate 4. Support di 1.3991 (61.8 FE))/1.3934 (trendline). Resistance di 1.4200 (23.6 FR)/1.4351 (projection 161.8 FE). Buy 1.3930 target di 1.4200 stop 60p, buy 1.3860 target 1.4000 stop 60p, sell 1.4170/1.4200 target 1.4000 stop 60p. Sell 1.4300/1.4330 target 1.4000 stop diatas 1.4400. buy break 1.4355 target 1.4500 stop 60p.
(Hold buy 95.80 target 97.70 stop 94.50) USDJPY menunjukkan signal negatif dari tembusnya support line di 95.76 dan pola candle three black crows, didukung oleh indikator ADX meningkat dan MACD bearish, stochastic terkoreksi turun, seharusnya mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas hari ini. Support berada di 94.41 (low 01/06)/94.11 (support channel). Trend bearish karena ditutup dibawah 96.40 (10 MA)/96.23 (200 MA). Resistance berada di 95.93 (projection FE 61.8)/96.61 (100.00 FE)/97.75 (161.8 FE). Buy break 95.75 target 97.00 stop 60p, sell 97.00 target 96.00 stop diatas 97.80, sell 98.70 target 97.00 stop 50p. buy 94.50 target 97.50 stop di 94.00.
(+250p-50p). GBPUSD masih mempertahankan trend bullish karena menunjukkan pola rising wedge meski tertahan di resistance line di 1.6531, meningkatkan potensi kenaikan terbatas selama masih berada di bawah level tersebut. Support berada di 1.6410, seharusnya mempertahankan trend bullish di 1.6155. indikator ADX menunjukkan koreksi penurunan. Tembusnya trendline resistance di 1.6531 dapat mendorong GBP ke target 1.6661/1.6814. Analisa EW menunjukkan proses zig zag wave c dalam dalam koreksi intemediate 4. Buy break 1.6540 target 1.6640 stop 100p, Sell break 1.6150 target 1.6050 stop 60p. Sell break 1.6020 target 1.5810 stop 50p. Sell 1.6640 target 1.6380 stop 30p. Buy break 1.6670 target 1.6820 stop 50p. Buy break 1.6830 target 1.7000 stop 60p. Sell break 1.6400 target 1.6200 stop 60p.
(150p). AUD-USD mulai mendapatkan signal positif dari tembusnya trendline di 0.7857 didukung oleh stochastic crossing up dan pola candle morning star (potensi bullishreversal), untuk mencapai diatas 0.8151 (61.8 FE)/0.8193 (resistance channel). Elliot wave menunjukkan proses wave zig zag c dalam wave intermediate 3. Buy break 0.8000 target 0.8150 stop 100p, buy 0.7850 target 0.8150 stop 40p. Sell 0.8150 target 0.7850 stop 50p, sell 0.8200 target 0.7800 stop 50p. Buy break 0.8210 target 0.8450.
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79.85 89.62 (04/03) 78.59 (01/06) 1.4075 1.4337 (03/06) 1.2459 (04/03)
Dolar mendapatkan tekanan lebih lanjut di sesi Asia hari ini, setelah dolar AS mendapatkan sentimen negatif dari sejumlah faktor yang membebani kinerja dolar AS yang sebelumnya menguat. Perkiraan the Fed akan mempertahankan suku bunga pada hari ini, menurunnya peluang kenaikan suku bunga the Fed di akhir tahun khususnya setelah World Bank relatif pesimis terhadap prediksi ekonomi global di tahun 2009/2010 dan munculnya kembali kekhawatiran mengenai rating kredit AAA milik AS setelah Moodys mengatakan rating AS masih aman, dan beresiko jika pemerintah tidak dapat menurunkan hutang publik dan jika dolar AS tertantang sebagai mata uang cadangan devisa global, berperan membebani kinerja dolar AS hingga sesi Asia hari ini. Perkiraan profit-taking menjelang hasil keputusan suku bunga AS malam ini dan lelang Treasury AS 2-tahun sukses semalam dan data Existing Home Sales tercatat +2.4% di bulan Mei, ikut menurunkan daya tarik untuk dolar AS.
Euro melemah terhadap dolar dan yen setelah kekhawatiran mengenai rating kredit AAA milik AS dan laporan ekspor Jepang merosot ke rekor tercepat di bulan lalu, menurunkan daya tarik untuk mata uang safe haven seperti dolar dan yen mendapatkan keuntungan dari pelarian di saat resesi global. Spekulasi the Fed akan mempertahan kan suku bunga 0.25% hingga bulan Desember dan mempertahankan pembelian Treasury sebesar $ 300 miliar, masih memberikan keuntungan kepada euro. Sementara dari Eropa menunjukkan sisi positif dari peluang pejabat bank sentral Eropa hari ini akan memberikan signal menahan diri untuk menurunkan suku bunga, mempertahankan daya tarik untuk euro. Anggota dewan kebijakan Axel Webber mengatakan bank sentral telah memiliki peluang untuk menurunkan suku bunga kembali. Sementara peluang profit-taking menjelang FOMC dan data ekonomi nanti malam dapat membatasi potensi penguatan euro.
USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
95.29 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.6440 1.6661 (03/06) 1.3502 (23/01)
Yen mengalami tekanan terhadap dolar dan euro di sesi Asia hari ini, setelah indeks saham Asia-Pasifik MSCI dan Nikkei 225 stock average yang menguat 50.57 (9,600.18) menjelang pertemuan FOMC yang dapat memicu aksi profit-taking posisi long yen terhadap dolar dan euro dan data ekspor Jepang yang anjlok 40.9% di bulan Mei dari penurunan 39.1% di bulan sebelumnya, menimbulkan keraguan mengenai prospek pertumbuhan ekonomi Jepang yang berjuang untuk pulih dari resesi terburuk sejak resesi paska Perang Dunia II. Anggota dewan bank sentral Jepang Seiji Nakamura mengatakan ekonomi terbesar kedua di dunia akan membutuhkan beberapa waktu untuk pulih. Sementara perusahaan besar di Jepang akan membayar rata-rata 754,009 yen ($ 7,900) untuk bonus musim panas di tahun ini, dimana perusahaan Jepang membayar bonus 2 kali setahun sebagai bagian dari paket kompensasi. Potensi penguatan yen terbatas menjelang pertemuan FOMC dan data ekonomi AS hari ini.
Pound sterling melemah untuk hari ke-2 terhadap euro, meski menguat lebih lanjut terhadap dolar AS mengikuti penurunan indeks USD sejak kemarin, setelah Chief Economist bank sentral Inggris Spencer Dale mengatakan mata uang yang lebih lemah membuat aset Inggris menjadi lebih menarik untuk investor asing. Spencer Dale juga mengatakan mata uang merupakan “key channel” yang dapat digunakan untuk meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Indeks saham FTSE 100 yang melemah 0.1%, menahan laju penguatan pound. Pound sebelumnya sempat terbebani oleh laporan Rightmove dua hari lalu, yang mengatakan harga rata-rata rumah di Inggris merosot 0.4% di bulan Juni, penurunan pertama dalam 5 bulan terakhir. Munculnya kekhawatiran terhadap rating kredit AAA milik AS berkat pernyataan dari Moodys diikuti spekulasi the Fed akan mempertahankan suku bunga hari ini, dapat memberikan momentum penguatan pound.
KIE 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
10,465 12,150 (02/03) 9,900 (05/06) 0.7937 0.8263 (03/06) 0.6248 (02/02)
Kontrak Indeks Emas (USD-IDR) di sesi Asia hari ini melemah mengikuti pelemahan mayoritas mata uang dolar terhadap mata uang regional Asia karena meredanya sentimen dari investor yang melakukan risk aversion setelah saham dan komoditi global menguat hari ini, menurunkan permintaan untuk dolar untuk pembayaran hutang korporasi dan pembayaran bunga surat berharga di akhir tutup buku kuartal 2 pada pekan ini. Meski Goldman Sachs hari ini merekomendasikan pembelian kontrak forward rupiah, rupee India dan yuan dalam periode 6 bulan. Goldman melhat rupiah akan menguat ke Rp 9,200 di akhir tahun, karena penurunan ekspor Indonesia telah mencapai bottom dan konsumsi domestik meningkat karena stimulus akan memberikan hasil positif. Meski KIE masih bertahan dibawah level resistance teknikal di Rp 10,650, mendapatkan support dari lelang 3 SUN senilai Rp 2 triliun dan masih berlanjutnya aksi intervensi oleh Bank Indonesia untuk menahan laju rupiah pada pekan ini. IHSG menguat 53.56 hari ini menjadi 1,967.945 (level terendah 1,913.965) memberikan sentimen positif kepada pergerakan rupiah hari ini, menjelang pertemuan bank sentral AS hari ini yang diperkirakan tetap mempertahankan suku bunga 0.0-0.25%. Perkiraan range hingga besok: 10,300-10,550.
Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) tidak berubah di sesi Asia hari ini setelah menguat untuk hari ke-4 dalam 5 hari terakhir di tengah spekulasi suku bunga AS masih akan tetap rendah untuk sementara waktu, meningkatkan permintaan untuk aset yang memiliki yield yang lebih tinggi. Aussie dan Kiwi menguat terhadap dolar berkat spekulasi the Fed akan mempertahankan suku bunga menjadi nol persen di sepanjang tahun ini. Permintaan untuk aset yang memiliki yield yang lebih tinggi dipicu oleh bank sentral Eropa yang mendesak bank-bank untuk melakukan penawaran dalam lelang pertama untuk pinjaman 12-bulan, memicu spekulasi dana tersebut menjadi mudah didapat untuk diinvestasikan di negara yang memiliki suku bunga yang lebih tinggi.
Technical Analysis
(+130p-20p+150p). EUR-USD menunjukkan trend bullish setelah pola resistance line di bullish pennant di 1.3959 di chart daily berhasil ditembus kemarin, didukung indikator MACD bullish, Stochastic crossing up, ADX flat, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan laju kenaikan lebih lanjut. Pola H&S dengan neckline di 1.3728, jika tembus dapat picu penurunan ke target 1.3419. Hitungan Elliot wave euro dolar dalam wave 2 koreksi dalam sub wave intermediate 4. Support di 1.3991 (61.8 FE))/1.3934 (trendline). Resistance di 1.4200 (23.6 FR)/1.4351 (projection 161.8 FE). Buy 1.3930 target di 1.4200 stop 60p, buy 1.3860 target 1.4000 stop 60p, sell 1.4170/1.4200 target 1.4000 stop 60p. Sell 1.4300/1.4330 target 1.4000 stop diatas 1.4400. buy break 1.4355 target 1.4500 stop 60p.
(Hold buy 95.80 target 97.70 stop 94.50) USDJPY menunjukkan signal negatif dari tembusnya support line di 95.76 dan pola candle three black crows, didukung oleh indikator ADX meningkat dan MACD bearish, stochastic terkoreksi turun, seharusnya mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas hari ini. Support berada di 94.41 (low 01/06)/94.11 (support channel). Trend bearish karena ditutup dibawah 96.40 (10 MA)/96.23 (200 MA). Resistance berada di 95.93 (projection FE 61.8)/96.61 (100.00 FE)/97.75 (161.8 FE). Buy break 95.75 target 97.00 stop 60p, sell 97.00 target 96.00 stop diatas 97.80, sell 98.70 target 97.00 stop 50p. buy 94.50 target 97.50 stop di 94.00.
(+250p-50p). GBPUSD masih mempertahankan trend bullish karena menunjukkan pola rising wedge meski tertahan di resistance line di 1.6531, meningkatkan potensi kenaikan terbatas selama masih berada di bawah level tersebut. Support berada di 1.6410, seharusnya mempertahankan trend bullish di 1.6155. indikator ADX menunjukkan koreksi penurunan. Tembusnya trendline resistance di 1.6531 dapat mendorong GBP ke target 1.6661/1.6814. Analisa EW menunjukkan proses zig zag wave c dalam dalam koreksi intemediate 4. Buy break 1.6540 target 1.6640 stop 100p, Sell break 1.6150 target 1.6050 stop 60p. Sell break 1.6020 target 1.5810 stop 50p. Sell 1.6640 target 1.6380 stop 30p. Buy break 1.6670 target 1.6820 stop 50p. Buy break 1.6830 target 1.7000 stop 60p. Sell break 1.6400 target 1.6200 stop 60p.
(150p). AUD-USD mulai mendapatkan signal positif dari tembusnya trendline di 0.7857 didukung oleh stochastic crossing up dan pola candle morning star (potensi bullishreversal), untuk mencapai diatas 0.8151 (61.8 FE)/0.8193 (resistance channel). Elliot wave menunjukkan proses wave zig zag c dalam wave intermediate 3. Buy break 0.8000 target 0.8150 stop 100p, buy 0.7850 target 0.8150 stop 40p. Sell 0.8150 target 0.7850 stop 50p, sell 0.8200 target 0.7800 stop 50p. Buy break 0.8210 target 0.8450.
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Oil; Three Wave Move, or Downtrend Continuation?
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by TheLFB-Forex.com
Oil; Three wave move, or downtrend continuation?
4 Hour Chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 65, 66.78, and 69. Looking for: Break through 66.78
Oil has made a strong move to our 66.78 target area after a break of 69.00 dollars per barrel, discussed on Monday. We can already see some pull-back reactions from the current support area, which means that traders with a short bias need to be patient here, as we may quickly be back to a test of the 69.00 area as resistance. Any break through the recent wave iii/c lows will lead us into the 65.00 support zone.
Oil; Three wave move, or downtrend continuation?
4 Hour Chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 65, 66.78, and 69. Looking for: Break through 66.78
Oil has made a strong move to our 66.78 target area after a break of 69.00 dollars per barrel, discussed on Monday. We can already see some pull-back reactions from the current support area, which means that traders with a short bias need to be patient here, as we may quickly be back to a test of the 69.00 area as resistance. Any break through the recent wave iii/c lows will lead us into the 65.00 support zone.
Current Fibonacci Confluence Grid Of The S&P 500
By Corey Rosenbloom on June 23, 2009
Here is an updated, ‘zoomed-in’ chart of the current Fibonacci confluence retracement grid of the S&P 500:
First, let me explain the method:
This is derived from Constance Brown’s book “Technical Analysis for the Trading Professional” which describes how Mrs. Brown applies Fibonacci analysis from key swing highs to a common swing low.Without disclosing her methods (I have obscured the left side of the chart), I have taken the March closing low and drawn four Fibonacci grids to the November highs near 1,000 (which you can see on the chart), August highs near 1,300, May highs near 1,430, and finally the November 2007 market high near 1,570.Using TradeStation, the program drew in the appropriate retracements and we’re looking for areas of confluence… as well as ‘open air’ between Fibonacci nodes (lines).
Without getting any more technical than that, the main idea here is to keep our eyes on the 879 -885 level which reflects the 61.8% retracement of the November 2008 highs as well as the 23.60% (which is a Fibonacci number) retracement of the 2007 market high - this level could prove to be significant.One would expect possible support here which could lead either to a “head and shoulders” pattern forming or price moving to the 1,000 level potentially to test the November highs.
However, if price breaks downward through this confluence level, that would be hugely significant and would forecast lower prices yet to come (you see the levels on the chart that would be important to watch in that sense which could set-up a test of the lows if the selling intensifies). I lean more to thinking confluence support will break, but we’ll soon see.For now, under the “next likely swing” theory, let’s keep our eye on the confluence that has formed around 880, which also reflects prior significant support from the May 2009 lows.Please join me as the MoneyShow.com rebroadcasts my presentation “Idealized Trade Set-ups for the Intraday Trader” on July 1st at noon EST - I’ll be there on a free live chat to answer questions through the presentation.
Here is an updated, ‘zoomed-in’ chart of the current Fibonacci confluence retracement grid of the S&P 500:
First, let me explain the method:
This is derived from Constance Brown’s book “Technical Analysis for the Trading Professional” which describes how Mrs. Brown applies Fibonacci analysis from key swing highs to a common swing low.Without disclosing her methods (I have obscured the left side of the chart), I have taken the March closing low and drawn four Fibonacci grids to the November highs near 1,000 (which you can see on the chart), August highs near 1,300, May highs near 1,430, and finally the November 2007 market high near 1,570.Using TradeStation, the program drew in the appropriate retracements and we’re looking for areas of confluence… as well as ‘open air’ between Fibonacci nodes (lines).
Without getting any more technical than that, the main idea here is to keep our eyes on the 879 -885 level which reflects the 61.8% retracement of the November 2008 highs as well as the 23.60% (which is a Fibonacci number) retracement of the 2007 market high - this level could prove to be significant.One would expect possible support here which could lead either to a “head and shoulders” pattern forming or price moving to the 1,000 level potentially to test the November highs.
However, if price breaks downward through this confluence level, that would be hugely significant and would forecast lower prices yet to come (you see the levels on the chart that would be important to watch in that sense which could set-up a test of the lows if the selling intensifies). I lean more to thinking confluence support will break, but we’ll soon see.For now, under the “next likely swing” theory, let’s keep our eye on the confluence that has formed around 880, which also reflects prior significant support from the May 2009 lows.Please join me as the MoneyShow.com rebroadcasts my presentation “Idealized Trade Set-ups for the Intraday Trader” on July 1st at noon EST - I’ll be there on a free live chat to answer questions through the presentation.
Daily Forex/CrossTechnical Commentary
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by ecPulse.com
EURO
The Euro versus Dollar pair was able to reach our suggested targets yesterday and was able to breach the minor resistance level to halt inclines near 1.4100. The pair may correct to the downside towards the 38.2% correction at 1.4000 in an attempt to retes1.0645t the level before rebounding back to the upside on the intraday basis to reach the 1.4170 level as an initial target. This incline remains as far as 1.3850 is intact. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3655 and the key resistance at 1.4340. The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets at 1.2120.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3935, 1.3885, 1.3850, 1.3785
Resistance: 1.4105, 1.4170, 1.4235, 1.4265, 1.4340
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.4000 with targets at 1.4170 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.3935
GBP
The Cable inclined strongly yesterday as we expected to reach our suggested target at 1.6470 and near the key resistance at 1.6540. Momentum indicators are showing the pair being overbought with a bearish signal on the stochastic indicator suggesting a possible downside correction before rebounding back to the upside where we still believe the pair is to the incline to reach the 1.6685 critical resistance. This incline remains as far as 1.6290 is intact. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.5900 and the key resistance at 1.6750. The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4840 remains intact with targets at 1.7000.
Support: 1.6420, 1.6385, 1.6325, 1.6290, 1.6255
Resistance: 1.6540, 1.6610, 1.6640, 1.6685, 1.6750
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.6385 with targets at 1.6540 and stop loss with four hour closnig below 1.2610
JPY
The USD/JPY pair continues to pressure the broken level at 95.55 supported by bullish signs from momentum indicators. We expect the pair to reverse from this level to decline towards the targets at 93.00 as far as 97.15 remains intact on the short term. The trading range for today is among the key support at 93.00 and the key resistance at 98.85. The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60
Support: 95.00, 94.65, 93.80, 93.40, 93.00
Resistance: 95.55, 96.35, 97.15, 97.30, 97.65
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 95.55 with targets at 93.80 and stop loss with four hour closing above 96.50
CHF
The Dollar versus Swiss pair was able to breach the key support at 1.0700 as expected yesterday where this breakout may take the pair to 1.0570. Momentum indicators show the pair being oversold which may result in an upside correction to 1.0730 – 1.0760 before reversing back to the downside. This decline remains as far as 1.0700 is intact. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0370 and the key resistance at 1.0880. The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact with targets at 1.2245.
Support: 1.0645, 1.0570, 1.0500, 1.0470, 1.0440
Resistance: 1.0705, 1.0730, 1.0785, 1.0825, 1.0890
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.0705 with targets at 1.0570 and stop loss with four hour closnig above 1.0785.
GBP/JPY
The daily candlestick has succeeded to close above the critical areas of 155.86, forming a positive pattern, indicating that the first internal wave of the medium term basis might have bottomed around 154.04 - yesterday's recorded low-. Therefore we speculate that a bullish action is under preparation towards 76.4% - the ideal correction for the pair- at 160.55 zones before resuming the major bearish scenario. Note that RSI 14 is neutral while AROON up -colored in green- has been prevented from additional fall below 30.00. Trading range for today is among key support at 153.60 and key resistance at 162.25.The general trend is to the downside as far as 167.45 remains intact with target at 116.00.
Support: 157.00, 156.25, 155.55, 154.45, 153.60
Resistance: 158.00, 158.70, 159.35, 160.00, 160.55
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair at 157.30 with targets at 160.00 and stop loss at 155.15.
EUR/JPY
A positive divergence confirmed by a momentum breakout, accompanied by a bullish candlestick structure, revived that the European currency versus Japanese yen has placed a temporary low at 131.40. Now, additional upward movements based on the consecutive closings above 134.15 are highly predicted on the intraday basis, particularly if the pair succeeds to breach 135.25 zones. AROON supports this bullishness. Trading range for today is among key support at 130.10 and key resistance now at 137.40.The general trend is to the downside as far as 141.44 remains intact with targets at 100.00 followed by 88.97 levels.
Support: 134.15, 133.45, 132.80, 132.10, 131.70
Resistance: 135.25, 136.00, 136.70, 137.40, 137.85
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair at 134.50 with targets at 136.70 and stop loss at 132.60.
EUR/GBP
The royal pair has stopped yesterday's bullishness around the areas which we defined, forming a shooting star candlestick pattern as seen on the secondary image. Hence, we see that this sign may be enough to lead the pair to start the third internal wave of the IM wave, based on the ideal Elliott sequence which we explained before. Only a break of 0.8605 accompanied by a positive closing can make the cycle re-considerable. Trading range is among the key support 0.8400 and key resistance now at 0.8720.The general trend is to the upside as far as 0.8020 area remains intact with targets at 1.0000 followed by 1.0400 levels.
Support: 0.8530, 0.8500, 0.8460, 0.8400, 0.8350
Resistance: 0.8590, 0.8640, 0.8665, 0.8700, 0.8720
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair at 0.8565 with targets at 0.8470 and stop loss at 0.8650.
EURO
The Euro versus Dollar pair was able to reach our suggested targets yesterday and was able to breach the minor resistance level to halt inclines near 1.4100. The pair may correct to the downside towards the 38.2% correction at 1.4000 in an attempt to retes1.0645t the level before rebounding back to the upside on the intraday basis to reach the 1.4170 level as an initial target. This incline remains as far as 1.3850 is intact. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3655 and the key resistance at 1.4340. The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets at 1.2120.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3935, 1.3885, 1.3850, 1.3785
Resistance: 1.4105, 1.4170, 1.4235, 1.4265, 1.4340
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.4000 with targets at 1.4170 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.3935
GBP
The Cable inclined strongly yesterday as we expected to reach our suggested target at 1.6470 and near the key resistance at 1.6540. Momentum indicators are showing the pair being overbought with a bearish signal on the stochastic indicator suggesting a possible downside correction before rebounding back to the upside where we still believe the pair is to the incline to reach the 1.6685 critical resistance. This incline remains as far as 1.6290 is intact. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.5900 and the key resistance at 1.6750. The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4840 remains intact with targets at 1.7000.
Support: 1.6420, 1.6385, 1.6325, 1.6290, 1.6255
Resistance: 1.6540, 1.6610, 1.6640, 1.6685, 1.6750
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.6385 with targets at 1.6540 and stop loss with four hour closnig below 1.2610
JPY
The USD/JPY pair continues to pressure the broken level at 95.55 supported by bullish signs from momentum indicators. We expect the pair to reverse from this level to decline towards the targets at 93.00 as far as 97.15 remains intact on the short term. The trading range for today is among the key support at 93.00 and the key resistance at 98.85. The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60
Support: 95.00, 94.65, 93.80, 93.40, 93.00
Resistance: 95.55, 96.35, 97.15, 97.30, 97.65
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 95.55 with targets at 93.80 and stop loss with four hour closing above 96.50
CHF
The Dollar versus Swiss pair was able to breach the key support at 1.0700 as expected yesterday where this breakout may take the pair to 1.0570. Momentum indicators show the pair being oversold which may result in an upside correction to 1.0730 – 1.0760 before reversing back to the downside. This decline remains as far as 1.0700 is intact. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0370 and the key resistance at 1.0880. The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact with targets at 1.2245.
Support: 1.0645, 1.0570, 1.0500, 1.0470, 1.0440
Resistance: 1.0705, 1.0730, 1.0785, 1.0825, 1.0890
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.0705 with targets at 1.0570 and stop loss with four hour closnig above 1.0785.
GBP/JPY
The daily candlestick has succeeded to close above the critical areas of 155.86, forming a positive pattern, indicating that the first internal wave of the medium term basis might have bottomed around 154.04 - yesterday's recorded low-. Therefore we speculate that a bullish action is under preparation towards 76.4% - the ideal correction for the pair- at 160.55 zones before resuming the major bearish scenario. Note that RSI 14 is neutral while AROON up -colored in green- has been prevented from additional fall below 30.00. Trading range for today is among key support at 153.60 and key resistance at 162.25.The general trend is to the downside as far as 167.45 remains intact with target at 116.00.
Support: 157.00, 156.25, 155.55, 154.45, 153.60
Resistance: 158.00, 158.70, 159.35, 160.00, 160.55
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair at 157.30 with targets at 160.00 and stop loss at 155.15.
EUR/JPY
A positive divergence confirmed by a momentum breakout, accompanied by a bullish candlestick structure, revived that the European currency versus Japanese yen has placed a temporary low at 131.40. Now, additional upward movements based on the consecutive closings above 134.15 are highly predicted on the intraday basis, particularly if the pair succeeds to breach 135.25 zones. AROON supports this bullishness. Trading range for today is among key support at 130.10 and key resistance now at 137.40.The general trend is to the downside as far as 141.44 remains intact with targets at 100.00 followed by 88.97 levels.
Support: 134.15, 133.45, 132.80, 132.10, 131.70
Resistance: 135.25, 136.00, 136.70, 137.40, 137.85
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair at 134.50 with targets at 136.70 and stop loss at 132.60.
EUR/GBP
The royal pair has stopped yesterday's bullishness around the areas which we defined, forming a shooting star candlestick pattern as seen on the secondary image. Hence, we see that this sign may be enough to lead the pair to start the third internal wave of the IM wave, based on the ideal Elliott sequence which we explained before. Only a break of 0.8605 accompanied by a positive closing can make the cycle re-considerable. Trading range is among the key support 0.8400 and key resistance now at 0.8720.The general trend is to the upside as far as 0.8020 area remains intact with targets at 1.0000 followed by 1.0400 levels.
Support: 0.8530, 0.8500, 0.8460, 0.8400, 0.8350
Resistance: 0.8590, 0.8640, 0.8665, 0.8700, 0.8720
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair at 0.8565 with targets at 0.8470 and stop loss at 0.8650.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
IHSG Berpeluang Mengalami Technical Rebound
Market Review
Kuatnya sentimen dari regional yang terpuruk mengikuti laporan negatif dari penurunan prediksi pertumbuhan global oleh World Bank kemarin, yang meningkatkan ketidakpastian mengenai pemulihan ekonomi global, berperan merontokkan saham dan mata uang domestik, karena investor lokal dan asing melakukan risk aversion dan profit-taking saham yang telah meningkat tajam dalam 3 bulan terakhir. Penurunan harga komoditi yang dipimpin oleh harga minyak ($ 66.37/barel kemarin) ikut menjatuhkan sejumlah saham komoditi pertambangan batubara, logam, meski saham plantation mendapatkan support dari kenakan harga CPO (+128; Myr 2,315). Isu gadai saham milik anak usaha BUMI, memicu aksi penjualan saham dari grup bakrie, ikut membebani kinerja IHSG. Indeks terpuruk 60.64 poin (-3.07%), ditutup di 1,914,39, yang merupakan level terendah 29 Mei, dengan nilai transaksi tercatat Rp 4.478 triliun. Net selling investor asing sebesar Rp 270.702 miliar, naik dibanding net sell Rp 45.37 miliar hari Selasa (23/06).
Indeks saham di Asia-Pasifik mengalami penurunan terbesar dalam 6 pekan terakhir kemarin, karean kekhawatiran pemulihan ekonomi global akan tertunda yang mendorong terkoreksinya harga komoditi dan membengkaknya defisit anggaran, meningkatkan permintaan untuk dolar AS dan yen sebagai mata uang safe haven, mengacuhkan laporan bank sentral China akan menurunkan jumlah cadangan di perbankan.
IHSG Outlook
Berbaliknya trend jangka pendek menjadi bearish secara teknikal dan minimnya sentimen positif dari dalam negeri di tengah kuatnya momentum yang negatif dari luar negeri, membebani kinerja IHSG pada awal pekan ini. Meski potensi penurunan IHSG diperkirakan terbatas pada hari ini, berkat perkiraan aksi profit-taking di saham global menjelang pertemuan the Fed (menahan laju suku bunga 0.0-0.25%) dan tetap melanjutkan kebijakan quantitative easing. Diikuti potensi penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar masih terbuka, karena kondisi teknikal oversold dan penurunan harga minyak (target $ 62.6//barel), aktifnya intervensi BI dan lelang SUN senilai Rp 2 triliun hari ini, akan meredam permintaan untuk dolar oleh korporasi dan penyesuaian poftpolio (window dressing) oleh fund manager asing menjelang akhir H1 2009 (target Rp 10,250/10,000 jika akhir pekan ini gagal ditutup diatas Rp 10,650). Perkiraan IMF akan merevisi naik prediksi pertumbuhan global dalam waktu dekat dan solidnya fundamental ekonomi dan saham lokal, seharusnya masih memberikan support kepada IHSG pada hari ini.
Buy on weakness (target >10%, risk <10%): BUMI/BNBR/ENRG/DEWA. MNCN/BMTR. ASII,AALI,UNTR,INKP,TKIM,HEXA,BBRI,BMRI,TRUB,INCO
Global Outlook
Kuatnya sentimen dari laporan World Bank yang memprediksikan resesi ekonomi global akan memburuk di tahun ini dan faktor teknikal yang menunjukkan berbaliknya trend jangka pendek dari bullish menjadi netral, seharusnya dapat dibatasi oleh kenaikan data Existing Home Sales AS (+2.4% menjadi 4.77 juta unit), spekulasi the Fed akan menahan laju suku bunga dalam pertemuan FOMC hari ini, pernyataan Moodys Investor Agency bahwa satu resiko untuk rating AAA milik AS dengan status dolar yang tertantang sebagai mata uang cadangan devisa global yang telah mendorong pelemahan dolar terhadap euro kemarin dan potensi profit-taking di sejumlah instrumen derivatif menghadapi pertemuan FOMC dan lelang Treasury $ 104 miliar hari ini. Spekulasi IMF akan merevisi naik prediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi global dalam waktu dekat, seharusnya masih memberikan support kepada indeks saham global.
Technical Analysis:
Trend IHSG berbalik menjadi netral dari bullish (revisi 23/06), karena tembusnya uptrendline support di 1,942 kemarin, MACD di teritorial negatif, 5 & 20 day MA berpotongan (potensi dead cross), meski potensi penurunan terbatas hari ini, karena ADX di posisi netral, IHSG masih ditutup diatas 1,912 (50.0% Fibonacci retracement 2116-1708) dan pola candle bullish hammer, seharusnya mendukung tecnical rebound hari ini. Jika IHSG ditutup diatas 1,963 (trendline) dapat meredam momentum bearish di hari mendatang. Penutupan dibawah 1,845 (50-day MA)/1,834 dapat memperburuk kondisi trend IHSG. Hitungan Elliot Wave: indeks berada dalam proses wave b setelah jika a telah selesai di 1,888.8 dalam wave koreksi 4 subwave intermediate 4 / (B). Untuk meneruskan BULL RALLY, ihSG hrs ditutup harian diatas 2,067 (resistance line).
Resistance: 2053.49/2010.91/1986.78/1962.65. PP 1925.73
Support : 1901.60/1877.47/1840.56/1797.98
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 1,880 -1,960)
Stock Pick:
* AALI Buy target Rp 21,500
* TKIM Hold target Rp 2,100
UBI Newsletter vol 231 (Code TF)
Kuatnya sentimen dari regional yang terpuruk mengikuti laporan negatif dari penurunan prediksi pertumbuhan global oleh World Bank kemarin, yang meningkatkan ketidakpastian mengenai pemulihan ekonomi global, berperan merontokkan saham dan mata uang domestik, karena investor lokal dan asing melakukan risk aversion dan profit-taking saham yang telah meningkat tajam dalam 3 bulan terakhir. Penurunan harga komoditi yang dipimpin oleh harga minyak ($ 66.37/barel kemarin) ikut menjatuhkan sejumlah saham komoditi pertambangan batubara, logam, meski saham plantation mendapatkan support dari kenakan harga CPO (+128; Myr 2,315). Isu gadai saham milik anak usaha BUMI, memicu aksi penjualan saham dari grup bakrie, ikut membebani kinerja IHSG. Indeks terpuruk 60.64 poin (-3.07%), ditutup di 1,914,39, yang merupakan level terendah 29 Mei, dengan nilai transaksi tercatat Rp 4.478 triliun. Net selling investor asing sebesar Rp 270.702 miliar, naik dibanding net sell Rp 45.37 miliar hari Selasa (23/06).
Indeks saham di Asia-Pasifik mengalami penurunan terbesar dalam 6 pekan terakhir kemarin, karean kekhawatiran pemulihan ekonomi global akan tertunda yang mendorong terkoreksinya harga komoditi dan membengkaknya defisit anggaran, meningkatkan permintaan untuk dolar AS dan yen sebagai mata uang safe haven, mengacuhkan laporan bank sentral China akan menurunkan jumlah cadangan di perbankan.
IHSG Outlook
Berbaliknya trend jangka pendek menjadi bearish secara teknikal dan minimnya sentimen positif dari dalam negeri di tengah kuatnya momentum yang negatif dari luar negeri, membebani kinerja IHSG pada awal pekan ini. Meski potensi penurunan IHSG diperkirakan terbatas pada hari ini, berkat perkiraan aksi profit-taking di saham global menjelang pertemuan the Fed (menahan laju suku bunga 0.0-0.25%) dan tetap melanjutkan kebijakan quantitative easing. Diikuti potensi penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar masih terbuka, karena kondisi teknikal oversold dan penurunan harga minyak (target $ 62.6//barel), aktifnya intervensi BI dan lelang SUN senilai Rp 2 triliun hari ini, akan meredam permintaan untuk dolar oleh korporasi dan penyesuaian poftpolio (window dressing) oleh fund manager asing menjelang akhir H1 2009 (target Rp 10,250/10,000 jika akhir pekan ini gagal ditutup diatas Rp 10,650). Perkiraan IMF akan merevisi naik prediksi pertumbuhan global dalam waktu dekat dan solidnya fundamental ekonomi dan saham lokal, seharusnya masih memberikan support kepada IHSG pada hari ini.
Buy on weakness (target >10%, risk <10%): BUMI/BNBR/ENRG/DEWA. MNCN/BMTR. ASII,AALI,UNTR,INKP,TKIM,HEXA,BBRI,BMRI,TRUB,INCO
Global Outlook
Kuatnya sentimen dari laporan World Bank yang memprediksikan resesi ekonomi global akan memburuk di tahun ini dan faktor teknikal yang menunjukkan berbaliknya trend jangka pendek dari bullish menjadi netral, seharusnya dapat dibatasi oleh kenaikan data Existing Home Sales AS (+2.4% menjadi 4.77 juta unit), spekulasi the Fed akan menahan laju suku bunga dalam pertemuan FOMC hari ini, pernyataan Moodys Investor Agency bahwa satu resiko untuk rating AAA milik AS dengan status dolar yang tertantang sebagai mata uang cadangan devisa global yang telah mendorong pelemahan dolar terhadap euro kemarin dan potensi profit-taking di sejumlah instrumen derivatif menghadapi pertemuan FOMC dan lelang Treasury $ 104 miliar hari ini. Spekulasi IMF akan merevisi naik prediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi global dalam waktu dekat, seharusnya masih memberikan support kepada indeks saham global.
Technical Analysis:
Trend IHSG berbalik menjadi netral dari bullish (revisi 23/06), karena tembusnya uptrendline support di 1,942 kemarin, MACD di teritorial negatif, 5 & 20 day MA berpotongan (potensi dead cross), meski potensi penurunan terbatas hari ini, karena ADX di posisi netral, IHSG masih ditutup diatas 1,912 (50.0% Fibonacci retracement 2116-1708) dan pola candle bullish hammer, seharusnya mendukung tecnical rebound hari ini. Jika IHSG ditutup diatas 1,963 (trendline) dapat meredam momentum bearish di hari mendatang. Penutupan dibawah 1,845 (50-day MA)/1,834 dapat memperburuk kondisi trend IHSG. Hitungan Elliot Wave: indeks berada dalam proses wave b setelah jika a telah selesai di 1,888.8 dalam wave koreksi 4 subwave intermediate 4 / (B). Untuk meneruskan BULL RALLY, ihSG hrs ditutup harian diatas 2,067 (resistance line).
Resistance: 2053.49/2010.91/1986.78/1962.65. PP 1925.73
Support : 1901.60/1877.47/1840.56/1797.98
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 1,880 -1,960)
Stock Pick:
* AALI Buy target Rp 21,500
* TKIM Hold target Rp 2,100
UBI Newsletter vol 231 (Code TF)
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Tue Jun 23 09 06:43 ET
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold recovers mildly after touching mentioned 61.8% retracement of 865.5 to 992.1 at 913.9. Further decline is still expected with 944.6 resistance intact. Break of 913.9 fibo support will set the stage for retest of 865.6 low. Though, above above 944.6 will suggest that fall from 922.1 has completed and bring strong rebound. But after all, risk of another fall remains as long as 992.1 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, recent development argues that rise from 865 has completed at 992.1 already, ahead of 1007.7/1033.9 key resistance zone. Also it suggests that consolidation from 1007.7 is still in progress and break of 913.9 fibo support will bring the third leg down to test 865 support before completing the whole consolidation. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) and bring resumption of rise from 681. On the upside, though, above 992.1 will revive the case that rise from 865 is resumption of up trend rather than part of sideway consolidation. In such case, retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance should be seen next.
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold recovers mildly after touching mentioned 61.8% retracement of 865.5 to 992.1 at 913.9. Further decline is still expected with 944.6 resistance intact. Break of 913.9 fibo support will set the stage for retest of 865.6 low. Though, above above 944.6 will suggest that fall from 922.1 has completed and bring strong rebound. But after all, risk of another fall remains as long as 992.1 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, recent development argues that rise from 865 has completed at 992.1 already, ahead of 1007.7/1033.9 key resistance zone. Also it suggests that consolidation from 1007.7 is still in progress and break of 913.9 fibo support will bring the third leg down to test 865 support before completing the whole consolidation. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) and bring resumption of rise from 681. On the upside, though, above 992.1 will revive the case that rise from 865 is resumption of up trend rather than part of sideway consolidation. In such case, retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance should be seen next.
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Tue Jun 23 09 06:41 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil fell further to as low as 66.25 before turning sideway. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 67.83 minor resistance holds. As discussed before, a short term top should be formed at 73.32 and deeper decline should bow be seen to 38.2% retracement of 45.44 to 73.23 at 62.61 next. On the upside, above 67.83will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But short term risk remains on the downside as long as 72.55 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, while a short term top might be formed at 73.23, there is no indication that rise from 33.20 has completed yet. Such rise is still in favor to extend to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77, and possibly further to next key level of 90, (50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.23) . But as noted before, strong resistance should be seen there and at least from some deep pull back. Though, a break of 54.66 key medium term resistance turned support will argue that whole rise from 33.2 low has indeed completed and will turn outlook bearish for a retest of this low eventually.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil fell further to as low as 66.25 before turning sideway. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 67.83 minor resistance holds. As discussed before, a short term top should be formed at 73.32 and deeper decline should bow be seen to 38.2% retracement of 45.44 to 73.23 at 62.61 next. On the upside, above 67.83will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But short term risk remains on the downside as long as 72.55 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, while a short term top might be formed at 73.23, there is no indication that rise from 33.20 has completed yet. Such rise is still in favor to extend to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77, and possibly further to next key level of 90, (50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.23) . But as noted before, strong resistance should be seen there and at least from some deep pull back. Though, a break of 54.66 key medium term resistance turned support will argue that whole rise from 33.2 low has indeed completed and will turn outlook bearish for a retest of this low eventually.
Signal Teknikal Menunjukkan Potensi Technical Rebound
SSIU9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
9550 9530 9690 9430 9765 9610 9865 9365 9430 9515 9665 9730 9815
Commentary
Di chart 4 jam, trend jangka pendek indeks SSIU9 berbalik menjadi bearish, setelah indeks ditutup dibawah support line di 9,725, dimana dapat mengarahkan indeks ke support berikutnya di 9469 (support channel)/9271 (uptrend line). Indikator teknikal ADX menunjukkan koreksi penurunan, stochastic dan MACD berada dalam teritorial negatif, dan indeks masih berada dalam downtrend channel, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi penurunan terbatas hari ini. Daily candle menunjukkan bullish hammer (medium reliability bullish reversal) membebani kinerja trend bearish indeks. Perkiraan range hari ini pada kisaran 9300-9700.
Rekomendasi : Buy 9470/9500 target 9750 stop 100p, buy break 9900 target 10100 stop 100p, Sell 9850 target 9,600 stop 50p. Buy 9300 target 9850 stop 100p. (-50p+50p)
KSU9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
173.60 173.4 178.1 172.4 179.7 176.5 180.7 170.1 171.5 172.5 174.9 176.3 177.3
Commentary
Dalam chart 4-jam, indeks KSU9 berada dalam pola congestion di kisaran range 184.15- 172.60, didukung oleh Indikator teknikal MACD dan stochastic berada dalam kondisi oversold, ADX terlihat terkoreksi turun, menunjukkan potensi penurunan terbatas hari ini. Indeks dapat melanjutkan laju kenaikan jika indeks dapat menembus resistance line di 180.56, bilamana break target 184.10 (double top di chart 4 jam). Tetapi jika indeks ditutup dibawah support line di 172.80, trend akan berbalik bearish, target 170.11 (50.0 FR)/166.80 (61.8 FR). Perkiraan range hari ini: 171.00-177.00
Rekomendasi : Buy 172.80 target 178.00 stop 100p, buy break 175.30 target 178.00 stop 100p. Buy break 178.70 target 184.00. Sell break 172.00 target 170.50 stop 100p. Sell 178.40 target 175.50 stop 100p. (-100+150p).
HSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
17471 17344 17813 17244 18047 17500 18147 16978 17152 17311 17644 17818 17977
Commentary
Dalam chart 4 jam, indeks telah menembus pola congestion dan berpotensi menunjukkan pola head & shoulder jika indeks bertahan di atas support 17321 (61.8 FR 19090-16195). Trend berbalik netral dari bullish jangka pendek, setelah indeks ditutup dibawah 17,648 dapat mengarahkan indeks ke target 17299 (61.8 FR)/16873 (76.4 FR), selama gagal ditutup diatas 18418 (high kemarin). Indikator teknikal ADX menunjukkan penurunan stochastic oversold, meski MACD masih berada di teritorial netral, menunjukkan potensi penurunan terbatas hari ini. Daily candle menunjukkan abandoned baby, seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan hari ini. Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks masih berada dalam wave a dalam subwave motive (3) telah berakhir di di 19,100 dalam cycle B. Perkiraan range hari ini : 17.200-17.900
Rekomendasi : Buy 17,650 target 17950 (or closing) stop 100 p. buy break 17980 target 18250 stop 100 poin. Sell 18400 target 17850/17500 stop 100p. Buy 17300 target 17650 stop 100p. Sell 16900 target 17650 stop 100p. (-50+150p).
9550 9530 9690 9430 9765 9610 9865 9365 9430 9515 9665 9730 9815
Commentary
Di chart 4 jam, trend jangka pendek indeks SSIU9 berbalik menjadi bearish, setelah indeks ditutup dibawah support line di 9,725, dimana dapat mengarahkan indeks ke support berikutnya di 9469 (support channel)/9271 (uptrend line). Indikator teknikal ADX menunjukkan koreksi penurunan, stochastic dan MACD berada dalam teritorial negatif, dan indeks masih berada dalam downtrend channel, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi penurunan terbatas hari ini. Daily candle menunjukkan bullish hammer (medium reliability bullish reversal) membebani kinerja trend bearish indeks. Perkiraan range hari ini pada kisaran 9300-9700.
Rekomendasi : Buy 9470/9500 target 9750 stop 100p, buy break 9900 target 10100 stop 100p, Sell 9850 target 9,600 stop 50p. Buy 9300 target 9850 stop 100p. (-50p+50p)
KSU9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
173.60 173.4 178.1 172.4 179.7 176.5 180.7 170.1 171.5 172.5 174.9 176.3 177.3
Commentary
Dalam chart 4-jam, indeks KSU9 berada dalam pola congestion di kisaran range 184.15- 172.60, didukung oleh Indikator teknikal MACD dan stochastic berada dalam kondisi oversold, ADX terlihat terkoreksi turun, menunjukkan potensi penurunan terbatas hari ini. Indeks dapat melanjutkan laju kenaikan jika indeks dapat menembus resistance line di 180.56, bilamana break target 184.10 (double top di chart 4 jam). Tetapi jika indeks ditutup dibawah support line di 172.80, trend akan berbalik bearish, target 170.11 (50.0 FR)/166.80 (61.8 FR). Perkiraan range hari ini: 171.00-177.00
Rekomendasi : Buy 172.80 target 178.00 stop 100p, buy break 175.30 target 178.00 stop 100p. Buy break 178.70 target 184.00. Sell break 172.00 target 170.50 stop 100p. Sell 178.40 target 175.50 stop 100p. (-100+150p).
HSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
17471 17344 17813 17244 18047 17500 18147 16978 17152 17311 17644 17818 17977
Commentary
Dalam chart 4 jam, indeks telah menembus pola congestion dan berpotensi menunjukkan pola head & shoulder jika indeks bertahan di atas support 17321 (61.8 FR 19090-16195). Trend berbalik netral dari bullish jangka pendek, setelah indeks ditutup dibawah 17,648 dapat mengarahkan indeks ke target 17299 (61.8 FR)/16873 (76.4 FR), selama gagal ditutup diatas 18418 (high kemarin). Indikator teknikal ADX menunjukkan penurunan stochastic oversold, meski MACD masih berada di teritorial netral, menunjukkan potensi penurunan terbatas hari ini. Daily candle menunjukkan abandoned baby, seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan hari ini. Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks masih berada dalam wave a dalam subwave motive (3) telah berakhir di di 19,100 dalam cycle B. Perkiraan range hari ini : 17.200-17.900
Rekomendasi : Buy 17,650 target 17950 (or closing) stop 100 p. buy break 17980 target 18250 stop 100 poin. Sell 18400 target 17850/17500 stop 100p. Buy 17300 target 17650 stop 100p. Sell 16900 target 17650 stop 100p. (-50+150p).
Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell At 1.6350
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3877; (P) 1.3945; (R1) 1.4007; More
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Break of 1.3747 low will confirm that whole fall from 1.4337 has resumed and should then target trend line support (now at 1.3386) next. On the upside, however, above 1.4011 will flip intraday bias back to the upside and argue that fall from 1.4337 has indeed completed at 1.3747 already. The three wave structure will in turn dampen the bearish view that EUR/USD has topped out at 1.4337 and will bring another rally to extend whole rise from 1.2884. Nevertheless, in such case, we'll continue to focus on reversal signal as EUR/USD meets trend line resistance (now at 1.4416).
In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2456 is treated as the third leg of the medium term consolidation pattern that started at 1.2329 (first leg completed at 1.4719, second at 1.2456). Considering that 100% projection of 1.2456 to 1.3737 from 1.2884 at 1.4165 was already met and daily MACD is breaking its own trend line, such rise from 1.2456 is tentatively treated as completed at 1.4337. Another fall below last week's low of 1.3747 will add much credence to this case and target trend line support (now at 1.3382) first. Break there will confirm and bring retest of 1.2456/2884 support zone. Though, in such case, as we're favoring that it's developing into triangle consolidation, downside should be contained by 1.2456/2884 support zone and bring one more rise to complete the consolidation.
On the upside, above 1.4011 will delay the bearish case and indicate that rise from 1.2456 is still in progress. Nevertheless, as this rise is still treated as part of the medium term consolidation, it should be limited by 1.4719/4867 resistance zone. Hence, upside potential should be limited and focus will still be on reversal signal in case of another rise.
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3877; (P) 1.3945; (R1) 1.4007; More
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Break of 1.3747 low will confirm that whole fall from 1.4337 has resumed and should then target trend line support (now at 1.3386) next. On the upside, however, above 1.4011 will flip intraday bias back to the upside and argue that fall from 1.4337 has indeed completed at 1.3747 already. The three wave structure will in turn dampen the bearish view that EUR/USD has topped out at 1.4337 and will bring another rally to extend whole rise from 1.2884. Nevertheless, in such case, we'll continue to focus on reversal signal as EUR/USD meets trend line resistance (now at 1.4416).
In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2456 is treated as the third leg of the medium term consolidation pattern that started at 1.2329 (first leg completed at 1.4719, second at 1.2456). Considering that 100% projection of 1.2456 to 1.3737 from 1.2884 at 1.4165 was already met and daily MACD is breaking its own trend line, such rise from 1.2456 is tentatively treated as completed at 1.4337. Another fall below last week's low of 1.3747 will add much credence to this case and target trend line support (now at 1.3382) first. Break there will confirm and bring retest of 1.2456/2884 support zone. Though, in such case, as we're favoring that it's developing into triangle consolidation, downside should be contained by 1.2456/2884 support zone and bring one more rise to complete the consolidation.
On the upside, above 1.4011 will delay the bearish case and indicate that rise from 1.2456 is still in progress. Nevertheless, as this rise is still treated as part of the medium term consolidation, it should be limited by 1.4719/4867 resistance zone. Hence, upside potential should be limited and focus will still be on reversal signal in case of another rise.
Daily Technical Analysis Forex & Gold
Daily Forex Technicals |
EURO
The fluctuation of the euro pair against the dollar around the support level at 1.3840 prevented the pair to continue declining to achieve the technical target for the bearish technical pattern that had been discussed yesterday. We can expect an increase for the pair on the intraday, based on the support levels previously mentioned, towards 1.4500 that supported by the positive signs that appear on the momentum indicators while paying attention to the incline for today is determined by it stabilizing above 1.3820. A breach of this level to the downside will result in a decline that would reach levels of 1.3650 – 1.3700.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3440 and the key resistance at 1.4235 The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets at 1.2120.
Support: 1.3840, 1.3785, 1.3745, 1.3700, 1.3650
Resistance: 1.3885, 1.3950, 1.3980, 1.4015, 1.4075
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.3840 with targets at 1.4010 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.3785
GBP
The Cable continued to negatively pressure the critical correction levels to reach the key support for the ascending channel at 1.6255. The short term trend remains to the downside as it rebounds from the above mentioned support in an attempt to target 1.7000 after breaching the critical level at 1.6685 (61.8% correction for the medium term decline). The short term trend remains to the upside as far as 1.6255 is intact.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.5900 and the key resistance at 1.6685. The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4840 remains intact with targets at 1.7000.
Support: 1.6255, 1.6210, 1.6175, 1.6115, 1.6075
Resistance: 1.6330, 1.6370, 1.6415, 1.6470, 1.6500
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.6330 with targets at 1.6470 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.6255
JPY
The USD/JPY pair breached the support at 95.50 which opened the way for further declines on the intraday basis to reach the targets of the bearish technical pattern at 93.00. Momentum indicators show the pair being oversold which may result in high volatility between the current level and the above mentioned broken level before gathering enough bearish momentum to reverse back to the downside as far as 97.15 is intact. The trading range for today is among the key support at 93.00 and the key resistance at 98.85. The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60.
Support: 95.00, 94.65, 93.80, 93.40, 93.00
Resistance: 95.50, 96.40, 97.15, 97.30, 97.65
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 95.50 with targets at 93.80 and stop loss with four hour closing above 96.50
CHF
After breaching a critical resistance level yesterday, the 1.0890 level halted further inclines for the Dollar versus Swissy pair. The bearish momentum seen on the indicators makes us believe the pair is to decline towards the key support for the current channel at 1.0695. This decline requires the 1.0890 level to remain intact where a breach to the upside will take the pair to 1.0960 and 1.1065 respectively.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0585 and the key resistance at 1.1230. The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact with targets at 1.2245. Support: 1.0830, 1.0765, 1.0695, 1.0640, 1.0570
Resistance: 1.0890, 1.0935, 1.0980, 1.1065, 1.1105
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.0830 with targets at 1.0695 and stop loss with four hour closing above 1.0900
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
Rupee : Rupee had met our target of 48.66 as expected. It has broken the trend line resistance at 48.65 levels. Incase the rupee stays. Stay bearish (USD/INR : 48.85). Medium term bearish incase it holds above 48.65 trendline.
Euro Euro plunged again after taking resistance at 1.40 plus levels to 1.3827 levels. Bias is clearly bearish . It is still maintaining a range bound move with the downward bias and breaking of 1.38 on a closing basis would push the pair to 1.3450. Daily trendlines have been consistently broken. ONLY and ONLY if it manages to maintain 1.4050 then we might have to reconsider the downtrend. (Eur/Usd:1.3830). Bearish
Sterling :Cable made a kind of double top formation at 1.66 levels and still moving in quite a volatile fashion in last 8-9 days showing both sides movement. of 250 pips . Important support holds at 1.6200 levels breaking which we could see extreme bearishness. LOOKS QUITE PROBABLE. View needs to be reconsidered only if 1.6650 breaks. (Gbp/Usd: 1.6260). Medium term Bearish
Yen :Dollar-Yen pair is trading sideways confined between the cluster support of 94 levels and resistance of 99.55. We should not initiate positions until this wide range breaks on either side. The bias is towards yen strength and dollar weakness due to increased risk aversion again. (USD/JPY : 95.20) Rangebound
Australian Dollar :Aussie has also broken the up trendline due to fall in commodity prices across. We could target .7600 in days to come. Remain bearish overall due to slump in commodity prices overall. (Aud/Usd: 0.7826). Short term Bearish
Gold :Gold is clearly bearish since its holding below its daily trend at $960. Our short positions initiated in 935 dollars are still on targeting below 900 dollars. (Gold- $914.63). Bearish
Dollar Index : DX bounced back from 79 levels (as expected) and is currently trading above 80-mark. The chart is turning bullish since the downtrend line has been broken and market is holding above 80 levels. Till we see the levels above 80 the index holds bullish. (DI- 81.25) Bullish
EURO
The fluctuation of the euro pair against the dollar around the support level at 1.3840 prevented the pair to continue declining to achieve the technical target for the bearish technical pattern that had been discussed yesterday. We can expect an increase for the pair on the intraday, based on the support levels previously mentioned, towards 1.4500 that supported by the positive signs that appear on the momentum indicators while paying attention to the incline for today is determined by it stabilizing above 1.3820. A breach of this level to the downside will result in a decline that would reach levels of 1.3650 – 1.3700.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3440 and the key resistance at 1.4235 The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets at 1.2120.
Support: 1.3840, 1.3785, 1.3745, 1.3700, 1.3650
Resistance: 1.3885, 1.3950, 1.3980, 1.4015, 1.4075
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.3840 with targets at 1.4010 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.3785
GBP
The Cable continued to negatively pressure the critical correction levels to reach the key support for the ascending channel at 1.6255. The short term trend remains to the downside as it rebounds from the above mentioned support in an attempt to target 1.7000 after breaching the critical level at 1.6685 (61.8% correction for the medium term decline). The short term trend remains to the upside as far as 1.6255 is intact.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.5900 and the key resistance at 1.6685. The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4840 remains intact with targets at 1.7000.
Support: 1.6255, 1.6210, 1.6175, 1.6115, 1.6075
Resistance: 1.6330, 1.6370, 1.6415, 1.6470, 1.6500
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.6330 with targets at 1.6470 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.6255
JPY
The USD/JPY pair breached the support at 95.50 which opened the way for further declines on the intraday basis to reach the targets of the bearish technical pattern at 93.00. Momentum indicators show the pair being oversold which may result in high volatility between the current level and the above mentioned broken level before gathering enough bearish momentum to reverse back to the downside as far as 97.15 is intact. The trading range for today is among the key support at 93.00 and the key resistance at 98.85. The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60.
Support: 95.00, 94.65, 93.80, 93.40, 93.00
Resistance: 95.50, 96.40, 97.15, 97.30, 97.65
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 95.50 with targets at 93.80 and stop loss with four hour closing above 96.50
CHF
After breaching a critical resistance level yesterday, the 1.0890 level halted further inclines for the Dollar versus Swissy pair. The bearish momentum seen on the indicators makes us believe the pair is to decline towards the key support for the current channel at 1.0695. This decline requires the 1.0890 level to remain intact where a breach to the upside will take the pair to 1.0960 and 1.1065 respectively.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0585 and the key resistance at 1.1230. The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact with targets at 1.2245. Support: 1.0830, 1.0765, 1.0695, 1.0640, 1.0570
Resistance: 1.0890, 1.0935, 1.0980, 1.1065, 1.1105
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.0830 with targets at 1.0695 and stop loss with four hour closing above 1.0900
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
Rupee : Rupee had met our target of 48.66 as expected. It has broken the trend line resistance at 48.65 levels. Incase the rupee stays. Stay bearish (USD/INR : 48.85). Medium term bearish incase it holds above 48.65 trendline.
Euro Euro plunged again after taking resistance at 1.40 plus levels to 1.3827 levels. Bias is clearly bearish . It is still maintaining a range bound move with the downward bias and breaking of 1.38 on a closing basis would push the pair to 1.3450. Daily trendlines have been consistently broken. ONLY and ONLY if it manages to maintain 1.4050 then we might have to reconsider the downtrend. (Eur/Usd:1.3830). Bearish
Sterling :Cable made a kind of double top formation at 1.66 levels and still moving in quite a volatile fashion in last 8-9 days showing both sides movement. of 250 pips . Important support holds at 1.6200 levels breaking which we could see extreme bearishness. LOOKS QUITE PROBABLE. View needs to be reconsidered only if 1.6650 breaks. (Gbp/Usd: 1.6260). Medium term Bearish
Yen :Dollar-Yen pair is trading sideways confined between the cluster support of 94 levels and resistance of 99.55. We should not initiate positions until this wide range breaks on either side. The bias is towards yen strength and dollar weakness due to increased risk aversion again. (USD/JPY : 95.20) Rangebound
Australian Dollar :Aussie has also broken the up trendline due to fall in commodity prices across. We could target .7600 in days to come. Remain bearish overall due to slump in commodity prices overall. (Aud/Usd: 0.7826). Short term Bearish
Gold :Gold is clearly bearish since its holding below its daily trend at $960. Our short positions initiated in 935 dollars are still on targeting below 900 dollars. (Gold- $914.63). Bearish
Dollar Index : DX bounced back from 79 levels (as expected) and is currently trading above 80-mark. The chart is turning bullish since the downtrend line has been broken and market is holding above 80 levels. Till we see the levels above 80 the index holds bullish. (DI- 81.25) Bullish