Oil, Copper May Jump, Deutsche Bank’s Grenfell Says

(Bloomberg) -- Commodities from oil to copper are poised to climb as government spending worldwide spurs a recovery in demand and companies curtail investment in mines and rigs, said Deutsche Bank AG’s Simon Grenfell. “We’re building up to have a really strong price move” over the next two years, Grenfell, head of Asian commodities for Germany’s biggest lender, said in an interview yesterday in Singapore. The risk of a “super-spike” has increased, he said, expressing his own opinion.

Commodities jumped 15 percent this year after slumping 36 percent in 2008, their biggest decline in half a century based on the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index, because of the global recession. This year, gasoline and copper doubled on signs the worst is past for the economy and as China increased inventories of crude oil and industrial metals. The world economy will grow 2.5 percent in 2010, more than the 1.9 percent forecast in April, after shrinking 1.4 percent this year, according to the International Monetary Fund. China expanded 7.9 percent in the second quarter, the first time growth had accelerated in more than two years.

“The only area of the world economy I know where the fundamentals are getting better is commodities,” investor Jim Rogers, chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, said in an interview. Commodity assets under management climbed by the second-largest amount in the second quarter, gaining $34 billion to $209 billion, Barclays Capital said in a report Aug. 5.

Grenfell said demand for commodities will remain “very strong” as investors from sovereign wealth and pension funds to asset managers increase their holdings.

Price Risks
Crude oil advanced 60 percent this year to $71.23 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The London Metal Exchange index of six metals soared 67 percent to 2,880 as countries worldwide spent more than $2 trillion to spur their economies. The risks to commodities continue to be falling house prices “that may dent demand in the West,” Grenfell said. Buying by China, the biggest consumer of commodities, may slow because of this year’s price gains, he said. “There is still a lot of uncertainty out there. Volatility will remain high.”

David Moore, commodity analyst with Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said “sentiment” is driving commodities. “People want exposure to the economic recovery,” he said yesterday. Still, “the recovery is hesitant and data will disappoint.” He expects a pull-back in metal prices in three to six months. A shortage of raw materials is likely next year as output of metals and agricultural products potentially climbs too slowly to keep pace with demand, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.

2008 Redux
“We expect a redux of 2008, when severe supply constraints forced the rationing of demand through sharply higher prices to keep markets balanced,” New York-based analysts Anthony Carpet, Laura Conigliaro and Robert Boroujerdi said in a report Aug. 5. Prices of crude oil, copper, corn, soybeans and wheat reached records last year before tumbling in the second half.

The worst housing market since the 1930s has shown signs of stabilizing as a gauge of U.S. home prices posted its first monthly gain in three years in May from the prior month. Even so, Americans may boost savings and limit spending as unemployment climbs, restraining an economic recovery. Government stockpiling, a drop in the dollar and inflation may boost commodity prices, Grenfell said. China’s State Reserve Bureau contracted to buy 300,000 tons to 400,000 tons of copper, according to Sydney-based Macquarie Group Ltd. Vietnam plans to build inventories for oil and fuels to stabilize prices, the government said this week.

Grenfell, who has worked in commodities for about 17 years, said the markets poised to appreciate are energy, copper, nickel, platinum and palladium. “Green” credentials may spur demand for platinum and palladium, which are used to clean toxic car exhausts, he said. Metals demand from auto parts makers may be recovering. Ford Motor Co., the second-largest U.S. automaker, posted its first sales gain since 2007 in July as industry-wide sales rose to an 11.2 million annual pace in the U.S. last month, the highest rate for the year.

Track Record Saham & Komoditi Pekan Ini (03 - 07 Agustus 2007)

Track Record (17 Juni - 07 Agustus 2009 = 7 Pekan) Average 46.49% + 7.9% (19 saham pilihan pekan ini) = Average 7.77% / Week. BUMI 14.2%,ELTY 5.9%,ENRG 22%,BNBR,27.6%,DEWA 17%,MNCN 5.7%,BMTR 2.9%,ANTM 5.5%,INCO 12%,TINS 0%,WIKA 0%,CPIN 27.2%,BBKP 0%,PGAS 0%,MEDC -3.1%,CTRP 0%,INKP 4.9%,JSMR 4.2%,UNVR -1.76% = 144.21 : 19 = Average 7.9%. PasFM Senin 09.10 WIB, Harian Kontan (10/08), Workshop Prospek Saham H2'09 15/08.

Good News 4 Global Stocks, Commodity. US Non Farm Payrol. -247K, Unemployment 9.4% Better than expected. Nikkei Futures +110 (3rd session), DJI Futures +61 (19.40 WIB)....Welcome IHSG to 2,400's zone next week. GL All.

Gold Heading for $644 or $1200?

By: Ronald_Rosen

Commodities
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhat if a decline to $644 takes place before the exalted highs are obtained? Is this possible? How could it happen? What would cause it to happen?The reality, as I see it, is that time is more important than price on the way down as well as the way up.

U.S. Dollar Crash Has Started as Pressure Mounts

By: Frederic_Simons

Currencies
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe US Dollar has shown further weakness during the last days. The support at about 78 in the US Dollar index has been breached to the downside. Technically, this means that the downside target of about 67 has been activated, and that downside momentum should be building up during the next days.

Charting the U.S. Recession Unemployment Crisis

By: Mike_Shedlock

Main Resistance Level Still Holds for S&P 500 Stocks Index

By: Donald_W_Dony

Stock-Markets
The main resistance level of about 1000 continues to hold for the S&P 500. This line is the barrier that has held the broad-based index since October 2008. As the new 4-month trading cycle began in early July, time is slowly running out for any additional advance. The mid-point of the cycle is in late August. This means that downward pressure can be expected to build in the second half of the cycle which is September and October.

Probability models indicate that there is only a 25% chance of the S&P 500 trading in the 939-1202 range over the next 100 days. In the August newsletter (pages 8 & 9), the importance of the 1000 level is explained plus the historical pattern of bear market bottoms since 1900 is reviewed. This combined data continues to imply a high probability of lower numbers in October. Bottom line: The S&P 500 is anticipated to have an positive bias in August. That pendulum should begin to shift in September and October. Models indicate the low of the current 4-month trading cycle is in late October.

Daily Technical Analysis Forex & Gold

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank
EURUSD
Comment: Three consecutive days of consolidation in a tiny range at the very top of this year's range. The Euro is not overbought (though bullish momentum could be stronger) so expect another burst higher hopefully today because a weekly close above 1.4400 (highest since September ) should cause another round of short-covering next week. Our measured targets are 1.4600 and eventually the psychological 1.5000.
Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.4350; stop well below 1.4200. Short term target 1.4435, then 1.4545 and after that 1.4635 Direction of Trade: → ↗ Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.4328 " 1.4423/1.4448*
1.43 1.45
1.423 1.4545*
1.4200* 1.4635*
1.41 1.473
GBPUSD
Comment: Yesterday's drop feels very big because of the previous two days of tiny ranges but it has done wonders for the overbought situation. The almost 3 cent move is the same size as Monday's rally and well within the scope of daily moves over the last ten weeks. Allow for a rather nervous probe of the top of the 'triangle' and the 9-day average at 1.6691 and Fibonacci support today. Watch for a reversal candle to form (marking an interim low) setting off for another short squeeze next week and certainly throughout August.Strategy: Buy at 1.6765; stop well below 1.6700. First target 1.7000/1.7044 again, then 1.710/1.71250 and after that 1.7500.Direction of Trade: →↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.6744 " 1.6813
1.6691 1.6911
1.664 1.7005
1.6500* 1.7044*
1.64 1.7100*
USDJPY
Comment: Same old, same old: nothing to add as we continue to struggle above moving averages and below a descending Ichimoku 'cloud'. Be careful as many of these look over-extended. The Lagging Span is just under the candles which drop dramatically over the next three days. We continue to favour generalised US dollar weakness and therefore eventually dollar/yen ought to move lower.Strategy: Attempt shorts at 95.45; stop above 96.25. Short term target 94.45, then 93.00.
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex | Aug 07 09 06:35 GMT |
Gold : Gold maintaining bullish bias above 950 dollars. Buy on dips around 953-948 for 10-15 dollars. Break of 960 dollars has started a new range for gold. (Gold- $960.63) Bullish
Dollar Index : The Dollar Index (basket against 6 currencies with EUR accounting for 57% of the basket) broke the important support of 78.33. It is expected to touch the low of 77 and rebound.(Dollar Index - 78.35) Bearish

S&P Futures; Ending Diagonal Suggests a Temporary Bear Market

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by TheLFB-Forex.com

Weekly chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 665.50, and 1252.50. Looking for: Move to 50% Fibonacci level.S&P Futures are very bullish on the weekly chart, after a powerful bounce off of the 665.50 support area that was created at the start of this year. This recent uptrend, however, could be a pull-back in wave 4 of a bearish impulse count, with wave 5 yet to come. In this case, wave 4 must not overlap the territory of wave 1.The converse technical view is that it may also be a start of a new long-term uptrend, if we consider a possible three wave structure from the 1586 top to the 665.50 lows.The makret has recently broken through the long-term trend-line and 38.2% Fiobnacci level, which may be a key for a move near to 50% area.



















Daily chart trend: Long. Main price points: 865, and 1030. Looking for: Wave 5
S&P futures are showing an impulse structure on a daily chart after a break of 957 over the past weeks. Wave 5 of this wave count is technically set, as the prices have broken through the previous wave 3 highs, which is confirming a move into a higher wave 5 target around 1030 area. The target will be valid, as long the 865, wave 4 lows holds.When we compare the daily wave count with a weekly count, it seems that a huge wave 4 is not the case here, as we have in impulse structure on a daily chart. The wave 4 is a corrective wave and not impulsive wave, which means that a much higher level is easily possible to be reached later this year.

4 Hour chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 963.75. Looking for: Ending diagonal
The S&P futures market is still moving around the 1000 psychological area, searching for a top of a red wave V). This wave V) is a sub-wave of a black wave 5) that completes the whole five wave pattern from the 665 lows to the current highs shown on the daily chart above. The fact that the market came out with an ending diagonal in a wave 5) position, suggests that a top is in place and that a near-term down-trend will happen soon.However, the 963 support area needs to be broken on the four hour chart for a down-trend confirmation. Any break through the current highs above the 1000 area will signal for a higher wave 5) target around the 1030 zone, which will invalidate the current diagonal pattern.

Daily Technical Analysis & Elliot Wave Forex/Cross/Gold/Oil/CFD

By Ahmad Mudjo

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Asian Stocks May Add 23%, India Raised, JPMorgan Says

(Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks may climb a further 23 percent to 450 by the end of the year amid signs of a stronger- than-expected economic recovery, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said. JPMorgan also raised India’s equity market to “overweight” from “neutral” amid political stability and stepped-up economic reforms, analysts led by Adrian Mowat said in an Aug. 6 report. Investors should own more shares than indicated by benchmark indexes in Taiwan, South Korea, Indonesia and Thailand, with exporters among the best bets, they added. The MSCI AC Asia-Pacific excluding Japan Index rose 0.8 percent to 365.45 yesterday, taking its gains this year to 48 percent. JPMorgan’s forecast represents an 82 percent advance in the measure for the full year, which would be its best annual gain on record.

“Economic activity in a number of countries is close to or at its peak,” the analysts wrote. “Real GDP for Asia ex-Japan, Indonesia, China, Australia and India is forecast to be higher in the second quarter of 2009 than any of the previous quarters. However, their markets are more than 20 percent below their peaks.”Mowat, the brokerage’s chief Asian and emerging-market strategist, had predicted in June that the MSCI regional index would climb to 400 this year.

India’s Growth
Indian stocks may benefit as low interest rates and inflation spur economic growth, JPMorgan said. The Reserve Bank of India last week left borrowing costs unchanged at record lows, after slashing interest rates six times since October.Inflation has slowed from a 16-year high of 12.91 percent in August last year as oil prices fell. India’s benchmark wholesale-price index fell for an eighth week, declining 1.58 percent in the week to July 25 from a year earlier, the government said yesterday.
The benchmark Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index has climbed 61 percent this year, the eighth-best gain among 89 indexes tracked by Bloomberg globally.

“India is a current account deficit economy and needs to import capital to keep growing quickly,” the analysts wrote. “The credit crunch in our view is over. Low external interest rates combined with low levels for the Indian rupee should accelerate capital inflows and growth subsequently.”The brokerage added Tata Motors Ltd., the Indian truckmaker that owns Jaguar Land Rover, and Infrastructure Development Finance Co., a financier of roads, ports and utilities, to its list of recommended stocks in India.Acer Inc., the world’s third-largest maker of personal computers, and Korean Air Lines Co. were also among companies that JPMorgan added to its recommended portfolio, the report said.

Australia Dollar Set to Reach 10-Month High: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- The Australian dollar may extend its rally to a 10-month high of 85.64 yen, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. said, citing trading patterns. ustralia’s currency is poised to gain after completing a so-called double bottom when it made two troughs of about the same depth on July 8 and July 13, Masashi Hashimoto, a senior analyst at the unit of Japan’s biggest publicly traded bank, said in an interview. The currency rebounded from those lows to rise to 80.83 yen on Aug. 4, the strongest this year.“Strength in the Australian dollar and weakness in the yen will continue for the time being,” Tokyo-based Hashimoto said. Australia’s currency also “faces strong upward pressure” as its relative-strength index points to further gains, he said.

The Australian dollar traded at 80.23 yen as of 8:50 a.m. in Tokyo from 80.13 yen in New York yesterday. The Aussie, as it is known, has advanced 26 percent versus the yen this year, the second-best performer of the 16 major currencies, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.The target of 85.64 yen represents a 61.8 percent retracement of the currency’s drop from its July 2008 high of 104.50 yen to the October 2008 low of 55.13 yen, Hashimoto said, citing a series of numbers known as the Fibonacci sequence. The Australian dollar last rose to 85.64 yen in September 2008, the month Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed.The Aussie-yen’s 14-day relative strength index, a gauge that compares the magnitude of gains and losses, is at 65, below the level of 70, which signals it may be overbought.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Fibonacci charts are based on the theory that securities tend to rise or fall by specific percentages after reaching a new high or low.

Aksi Profit Taking Akan Membatasi Laju Kenaikan IHSG

Market Review
Melejitnya harga saham dari grup Bakrie yang menyumbang 51.19% dari total transaksi EBI kemarin, positifnya mayoritas indeks saham regional Asia dan kenaikan harga minyak ke level $ 72.42/barel, berperan angkat IHSG nyaris memutarbalikkan penurunan hari sebelumnya. Kuatnya sentimen positif dari Grup Bakrie (BUMI, ENRG, BNBR) yang sahamnya melejit diatas 10% hari ini dan kenaikan harga saham komoditi pertambangan dan logam, meredakan kekhawatiran terhadap isu bubble di IHSG saat ini. Stabilnya rupiah terhadap dolar di atas level Rp 9,900 ikut membantu saham yang sensitif terhadap pergerakan dolar AS. IHSG menguat 42.914 poin (+1.85%) ditutup di 2,359.977, dengan nilai transaksi Rp 8.222 triliun. Investor asing mencatat net buying Rp 340 miliar, dibandingkan net sell Rp 41.632 miliar hari Rabu (05/08).

Indeks saham MSCI Asia-Pacific menguat untuk pertama kali dalam 3 hari terakhir karena Alumina Ltd mencatat kerugian yang lebih kecil dari perkiraan dan laporan tenaga kerja Australia menunjukkan kenaikan, meningkatkan keyakinan ekonomi global tengah pulih. Meski indeks saham Shanghai melemah karena mahalnya valuasi indeks (PER 36x), dua kali dari PER indeks MSCI Emerging Market Index.

IHSG Outlook
IndP/E (x)
EPS
Y/YY/YSuku Bunga*Inflasi*
Y/YGDP*
Y/Y
IHSG15.28%+7.9%6.50%2.7%4.4%
STI22.016%-9.7%0.69%-0.70%-10.1%
KLCI14.910%+1.3%2.0%3.00%-6.2%
SET13.54%-10.5%1.25%-3.30%-7.10%
SSE43.436%+15%5.31%-1.40%7.9%
N22547.8-1%-25.4%0.10%-0.10%-9.7%
HSI26.519%-10.1%0.50%0.60%-7.80%
DJIA17.43%-17.1%0.25%-1.4%-3.6%
* Negara Bersangkutan
IHSG mendapatkan keuntungan dari sikap investor yang mengacuhkan sejumlah sentimen negatif dan kembali memburu saham unggulan yang relatif murah dan tertinggal (lagging stocks). Sisi fundamental ekonomi maupun emiten yang solid, sentimen inflow masih kuat (net buy investor asing di pekan ini Rp 1,333 triliun) dan teknikal yang uptrend jangka pendek -menengah. Sejumlah isu positif dari saham grup Bakrie (BUMI, BNBR, ENRG) sejak 3 sesi perdagangan terakhir memberikan kontribusi lebih dari 50% kepada IHSG, diikuti kenaikan harga komoditi global (minyak $ 72.40, nikel tembus $ 20k, emas $ 971, cpo MYR 2370) menguntungkan saham pertambangan dan perkebunan, imbas penurunan suku bunga BI hari Rabu dan penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar (target Rp 9,800) angkat harga saham perbankan, properti, aneka industri dan infrastruktur, sejumlah analis asing upgrade saham domestik (dapat dilihat di www.strategydesk.co.id), mayoritas earning saham lokal semester 1 2009
tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan, seharusnya masih memberikan daya tarik kepada IHSG di awal bulan ini.

Meski laju kenaikan IHSG dapat dibatasi oleh mahalnya valuasi saham domestik (PER IHSG 15.2x) dan MSCI Asia Pacific (PER 25x), trend kenaikan harga komoditi global dapat picu inflasi di bulan mendatang dan dapat mengganggu proses pemulihan ekonomi global, minimnya rilisan data ekonomi dan earning di pekan mendatang, kondisi teknikal yang overbought, dapat picu aksi profit-taking dalam waktu dekat.

Stock Picks: Average last 6 week +46.49%. Target 10-30%, Risk < -10%. Tight Stop.
Hold Buy: JSMR, ISAT, INCO, BBCA, BBRI, MNCN, TRUB, SMCB, BUMI, ENRG, ELTY, BNBR, BUDI, BSDE, KLBF, WIKA. Closing all today.

Stock Picks:
•PGAS : hold target Rp 4,000
•UNVR : hold target Rp 13000

Global Outlook
Indeks saham global diperkirakan masih berada dalam fase konsolidasi dalam sebuah uptrend jangka pendek dan jangka menengah, karena investor masih menunggu hasil laporan tenaga kerja AS hari ini (Payroll diperkirakan -345K, Unemployment 9.6%) dapat memberikan petunjuk mengenai proses pemulihan ekonomi AS yang dapat memberikan bukti resesi ekonomi AS mungkin akan berakhir di tahun ini, di tengah mahalnya valuasi saham global (PER MSCI World Index 24.1x) dan kondisi teknikal yang overbought, mengecewakannya laporan earning Cisco System, dan spekulasi lemahnya data Payroll AS hari ini (mengikuti lebih tinggi dari perkiraan ADP Employer Services). Sementara berita positif dari bank sentral Inggris (BOE) menyuntik extra US$ 84 miliar ke ekonomi setelah mempertahankan suku bunga dan pernyataan President ECB Trichet bahwa ekonomi euro akan tumbuh di tahun depan, diikuti data Jobless Claims pekan lalu tercatat -30K menjadi 550K, mortgage rate anjlok ke 5.22%,
seharusnya dapat membatasi tekanan kepada indeks saham global.

Technical Analysis:
Tekanan bearish mereda setelah IHSG menunjukkan pola bullish harami (low reliability bulish reversal) dan kembali ditutup diatas trendline 2,349 dan middle line channel di 2,340 dalam pola uptrend channel yang menjaga trend bullish jangka pendek dan menengah. Indikator ADX menunjukkan volatilitas menurun, stochastic dan MACD menunjukkan bullish di tengah kondisi overbought, seharusnya dukung potensi penurunan terbatas, cenderung mengarah ke 2,382 (high 04/08)/2,425 (76.4% FR 2838-1089), selama tidak ditutup dibawah 2,294 (channel support). Elliot Wave menunjukkan wave minor v (perkiraan peak di 2,382/2,425???) dalam extended motive wave 5 - siklus intermediate 4/B.
Resistance: 2418.42/2393.40/2385.04/2376.69. PP 2343.34
Support : 2334.98/2326.63/2309.95/2293.28
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2,335 - 2,393)

Stocks in 'New Bull Market,' But Climb Will Be Slow: Cohen

Stocks are in a "new bull market" and its main benchmark, the S&P 500, should rise from the current 1000 to the 1050-to 1100 range by the end of the year, widely followed market guru Abby Joseph Cohen told CNBC.But Cohen, president of global markets institute at Goldman Sachs, said the recovery will be slow.

“We do think that the new bull market has begunit may prove that it started in March of this year,” Cohen said in a live interview. “We’ve talked about the staircase pattern of recovery in an equity market. Even if this is a new bull market, don’t expect it to look like a Vexpect it to look like a series of upward steps.”

Cohen said cyclical sectors will lead the new bull market, including energy, technology, and financials. She added that stocks should likely perform better than bonds. “Over the last year or two with all the difficult problems in the financial services sector, many of us have lost track of the fact that most of these stocks do follow economic growth. So when GDP is doing well, financial services tend to do well at the same time,” she said.

The third quarter is looking stable for companies, said Cohen as most firms have held profit margins up well even during the difficult portion of the recession. She said the cost containment and improvement in margin would be beneficial for companies in the second half of the year.Additionally, because companies and investors tend to look at profits on a year-over-year basis, "the third and fourth quarters of last year were dreadful so the third and fourth quarters of 2009 will not only good, but fabulous by comparison,” she said.

In terms of the unemployment situation, Cohen said there are slow, but steady signs of improvement in the labor market.
“Whether the [employment] number comes in light or unpleasant tomorrow, we’re seeing improvement even in the labor marketit appears the job losses are slowing and there is some job creation going on,” she said. “But labor markets are unlikely to turn all at one or on a dime. We have many more months of difficult labor situation ahead even if the recession using GDP or industrial production is almost over.”

Spike Coming in Commodities Prices: Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs said it expects commodity prices to spike sharply higher next year, mimicking the moves in 2008 when oil almost hit $150 a barrel and other commodities touched a series of all-time highs. The U.S. bank said potential supply shortages created by years of underinvestment have been exacerbated by the global financial crisis and tight credit conditions.

"As the commodity markets rebound with the broader global economy we expect a redux of 2008 when severe supply constraints forced the rationing of demand through sharply higher prices to keep the market balanced," Goldman Sachs [GS 167.29  -1.35 (-0.80%)]analysts said in a research note dated Aug 5. "As the developed world increasingly begins to consume like Westerners the demands placed on the finite resources of the planet increases. This trend of human populations growing faster than the earth's ability to produce not only impacts food production but that of commodity usage."

Goldman Sachs made headlines in early 2008 after analyst Arjun Murti predicted oil prices could spike as high as $200 a barrel. Oil prices had never before traded above $100 a barrel until January 2008.
By July of that year, oil had hit a high of $147.21 in New York, before it crashed to almost $30 a barrel by the turn of the year as the recession slashed demand.

Prices have since recovered to around $70 a barrel, but some economists have already cautioned this level could be high enough to derail any economic recovery.
Other analysts have also said the commodity price spikes could have permanently destroyed some demand, especially in the developed world, which could mean last year's rally is unlikely to be repeated near-term.

Equity analyst Murti worked on the latest Goldman research note alongside the bank's commodity research team, led by Jeffrey Currie in London.

Emerging-Market Stock ‘Euphoria’ to Reverse: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market stocks in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, which rallied 72 percent in five months, have hit the “top,” Credit Suisse Group AG said, citing six “tactical” indicators. The MSCI EMEA Index’s 200-day moving average as well as the advance-decline ratio, risk appetite, cash levels, fund flows and seasonality of developing-economy stocks have “turned negative,” Alexander Redman, an analyst at Credit Suisse in London, wrote in a client note today. This typically points to a change in market direction, he said.Increased government and consumer spending in emerging economies, $1 trillion pledged by the wealthiest nations and higher growth estimates have boosted stocks in developing nations by more than 70 percent since March. Global investor appetite reached the “euphoria zone” on Aug. 4, pointing to a turnaround in the rally, according to the Credit Suisse Risk Appetite Index. The index has reversed direction after hitting “euphoria” nine times since 1984, the report showed.

“We are now calling for a tactical reversal in EMEA equities performance,” Redman wrote.

Stocks in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index were valued at 17.8 times reported earnings at the close of trading on Aug. 3, the most expensive level since Oct. 29, 2007, Bloomberg data show. Concern the rally had outpaced prospects for profit growth triggered two days of declines. The gauge of 22 developing- nations stocks rebounded 0.5 percent today.The MSCI EM index has climbed to the highest level above its 200-day moving average since January 2008, Redman wrote in the report. It’s reached a positive reading of 38.6 percent, up from a negative reading below 50 percent in January this year, he said. The positive deviation on the MSCI EMEA index has reached 35.7 percent, according to the report.

Advancing Stocks
The average six-week advance-decline ratio for MSCI EM index, which measures daily advances minus declines as a percentage of total stocks, has jumped to 16 percent from less than zero at the start of the year, Redman said. The ratio has only been higher than 16 percent for 2.7 percent of trading days this decade, indicating a fall is likely, the report said.Emerging economies probably will expand 1.5 percent this year and 4.7 percent in 2010, escaping the worst recession to hit Europe and the U.S. since World War II, the International Monetary Fund forecast July 8. Developed economies will shrink 3.8 percent in 2009 and grow 0.6 percent next year, the IMF said.The forecasts have helped trigger inflows into emerging- market equity funds for 17 of the past 19 weeks, according to Credit Suisse data. Rolling four-month inflows as a percentage of total assets is at 10 percent, one of the highest levels in the past 14 years and a “negative” indicator, the bank said.

Cash Positions Deteriorate
Stock purchases reduced the average cash position of dedicated emerging-market equity funds to a year low of 2.3 percent in July, less than the 3 percent average for the decade, Redman wrote in the report. “Typically, low cash levels - euphoria - are associated with peak equity-market index levels,” he said.The third-quarter is also typically the worst-performing three-month period of the year for developing-nation shares, Redman said. Over the past 20 years, the July to September period is the only quarter to generate an average negative return, Credit Suisse data shows.
Redman also noted emerging-market equities are trading at 13.4 times their estimated earnings, close to the November 2007 peak of 14.7 times.

“Revisions are now registering the most positive on record and are vulnerable to an inflexion,” he said.

S&P 500 to Enter ‘Turning Point’ in August: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is approaching a 1,020 “massive resistance level” that could lead to the “final point of this rally” mid-August, according to analysts at UBS AG, who look at seasonal trends in the market.

The strategists Michael Riesner and Marc Mueller cited previous bear market corrections, such as Black Monday on Oct. 19, 1987, or the October low of 2002, which generally started in August and carried on until October. The S&P 500 Index rose to 1,005.65 on Aug. 4, the highest since Nov. 4.

“The whole March recovery rally is moving into its ultimate top,” wrote Riesner and Mueller. “From this top we will see a larger and longer-lasting correction into November.” The analysts said investors will start selling technology companies.

A break above 1,020 would imply a move toward 1,100 as a next bigger projection,” Riesner and Mueller added in the report. The S&P 500 has posted three weekly gains since July 17. It dropped for the first time in five days yesterday as service industries unexpectedly contracted at a faster pace in July.

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Aug 06 09 06:01 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Even though crude oil manages to edge higher, upside momentum continues to diminish with 4 hours MACD staying below signal line. A short term top might be around the corner. Hence, we'd stay intraday neutral as long as crude oil remains below 73.36/38 cluster level (100% projection of 58.32 to 68.99 from 62.7 at 73.36). On the downside, below 69.70 minor support will bring deeper pull back but break of 62.70 support is needed to indicate that rise from 58.32 has completed. Otherwise, short term outlook will remain bullish. Sustained trading above 73.36/38 will target 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 33.2 is likely still in progress as crude oil is trading well inside rising channel from there. Current rise from 58.32 should be resuming such rebound and will likely make another high above 73.38, probably to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. But strong resistance will likely be seen as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone. Hence, we'd look for sign of reversal and loss of momentum as crude oil as the current rise continues. On the downside, break of 62.70 support will argue that crude oil has possibly topped out earlier than we expect and break of 58.32 support will now be an important signal that such medium term rise from 33.2 has already completed

Gold Daily Technical Outlook

Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Aug 06 09 06:02 ET
Comex Gold (GC)

Gold retreats again after hitting 972.7 upside momentum continues to diminish with 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line again. Intraday bias is turned neutral again. Above 972.7 will bring another rise but after all note that current rally from 904.8 is treated as one leg of triangle consolidation from 1007.7. Upside should be limited by 100% projection of 904.8 to 962.7 from 927.6 at 985.4 and bring reversal. On the downside, below 953 will flip intraday bias to the downside. Further break of 927.6 support will indicate that rebound from 904.8 has completed and will bring fall to test this low.

In the bigger picture, as discussed before, fall from 992.1 is either part of triangle consolidation from 1007.7 or a correction to rise from 865. We're slightly preferring the former case. But after all, in either case, there are some possible scenarios that will bring more consolidation below 1007.7. So we'd stay neutral as long as 1007.7 resistance holds and be prepared for another fall before completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, the case of another deep fall to 865 is not likely. Break of 992.1 /1007.7 resistance will indicate that whole rise from 681 has resumed for 1033.9 key resistance next.

Indeks Saham Asia Akan Melanjutkan Pola Bullish Continuation (07/08)

Laporan Pasar
Nikkei Futures Kontrak September (SSIU9)
Indeks Nikkei berhasil ditutup pada level tertinggi dalam 10 bulan terakhir kemarin, dimana Honda Motor Co dan saham otomotif bangkit dari kejatuhan berkat program pemerintah yang bernama “Cash for Clunkers” senilai $1 miliar, di mana pemerintah memberikan hingga $4.500 ke konsumen untuk menukar mobil lamanya. Konsumen disarankan untuk membeli mobil baru hemat BBM. Indeks Nikkei .N225 ditutup menguat 135,56 poin, atau 1,32%, ke posisi 10.388,09, level penutupan tertinggi sejak 6 Oktober lalu.
Di chart daily, indeks kembali mendapatkan signal positif dari pola candle bullish harami adn masih berada dalam uptrend channel, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi penurunan terbatas. Indikator masih mendukung potensi penurunan ADX terkoreksi, stochastic crossover dan MACD bullish, seharusnya mendukung potensi rebound hari ini. Resistance di 10457 (ex channel support)/10870). Support 10200 (10-day MA) /10107 (downward channel). Perkiraan range hari ini 10350-10550. Rekomendasi Sell 10500 target 10200 stp 100p. Hold Buy 10250 target 10500 stop 100p, Buy 10100 target 10300 stop 50p, sell break 10000 target 9750. Chart SSIU9 Daily

Kospi Futures Kontrak September (KSU9)
Ssangyong Motor picu naiknya indeks Kospi kemarin, menyusul kabar bahwa para pekerja mengakhiri demonya di perusahaan otomotif itu. Sementara itu, LG Dispaly menguat karena proyeksi meningkatnya penjualan. Indeks Kospi .KS11 ditutup naik 5,57 poin, atau 0,36%, ke posisi 1.565,04 poin.
Dalam chart daily, indeks masih berada dalam uptrend channel, dan kembali ditutup diatas middle line channel sebagai konfirmasi bullish continuation menunjukkan potensi reversal dari candle spinning top. Kondisi stochastic overbought, MACD bullish dan ADX terkoreksi, seharusnya mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas. Resistance di 207.40/211.50 (upper channel). Support di 203.10/200.80. Rekomendasi Sell break 202 & 199.00 target 193.00 stop 100p, buy 199.50 target 203.50, buy 193.00 target 197.50 stop 100p. Sell 206.00 & 207.50 target 202.00 stop 100p. (-100p) Chart KSU9 Daily

Hang Seng Futures Kontrak Agustus (HSIQ9)
Indeks Hang Seng berhasil ditutup di level tertinggi dalam 11 bulan terakhir kemarin, setelah dua sesi sebelumnya mengalami kejatuhan. Penguatan tersebut didorong oleh aksi beli saham China Mobile menguat 7,5% menyusul spekulasi saham itu akan listing di bursa Shanghai. Indeks Hang Seng .HSI ditutup menguat 404,47 poin, atau 1,97%, ke level 20.899,24.
Dalam chart daily, indeks kembali menunjukkan signal positif dari long white candle meredam tekanan bearish dari potensi reversal. Diartikan potensi penurunan terbatas di tengah overboughtnya kondisi stochastic dan MACD, ADX terkoreksi, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan hari ini. Resistance di 21.158 (trendline)/21653. Support 20275 (10-day MA)/20446 (channel support). Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan wave v extended dalam subwave motive (3) cycle B. Rekomendasi : Sell break 20270 target 19800 (or closing) stop 100 p. Buy 20350 target 20750 stop 100p. Buy 19.760 target 19500. Sell 21170 & 21 target 21650 stop 200p. (+400+0poin)


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Research Saham Domestik - Sekuritas Asing 06-08

Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, CS, CLSA

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Gold’s Advance to Two-Month High May Stall: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- Gold’s advance to the highest level in two months may stall before it reaches so-called resistance at $972 an ounce, Commerzbank AG said, citing trading patterns. The resistance level is the 78.6 percent retracement of the move down from a June peak of $990.75, Karen Jones, a technical analyst with Commerzbank, wrote in a note yesterday. Resistance levels are where sell orders tend to be clustered.Gold for immediate delivery fell 0.1 percent to $965.69 an ounce at 10:54 a.m. Singapore time. The precious metal, up 9.5 percent this year, touched $970.47 yesterday, the highest price since June 5.

“Near-term strength is viewed as an elongated correction only,” Jones said. “Our long-term bias remains negative. We view the $1,000 region as a ceiling for the market.”A slide to less than $943.90, where there is 55-day moving average and Fibonacci support, “should be enough to alleviate upside pressure and cast attention back to $925, then the $904.80 support,” the report said.Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low.

Oil Set for New High in 2009, Barclays Says: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil is set to rise above $74 a barrel in New York, passing this year’s high, after prices formed an “inside bar” pattern, according to technical analysts at Barclays Capital.The highest and lowest prices on Aug. 4 were within the trading range of the previous day, a formation on a candlestick chart known as an “inside bar” that usually indicates the continuation of a price trend, Barclays analyst MacNeil Curry said in a telephone interview from New York yesterday. A narrowing gap between monthly contracts of Brent crude and a “positive macro backdrop” lend support, he said.

Crude futures for September delivery, which traded as high as $72.02 a barrel yesterday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, rose to a 2009 high of $74.66 a barrel on June 11. The Brent contract in London increased to its highest this year, $74.89, on Aug. 4.“The path of least resistance is higher,” Curry said. “It’s a conglomeration of things: the inside bar, Brent is making new highs, the spreads are trying to consolidate, and the macro backdrop is positive for assets correlated with global growth.”

The upper and lower levels on Aug. 4 for the September crude contract in New York were $70.16 and $71.95, whereas the highs and lows on the previous day $69.09 and $72.20. “The inside bar is when the bar subsequent to a big move is within the previous day’s range,” said Curry. “This usually suggests the continuation of the previous trend, which in this case is an uptrend.”The difference between Brent contracts to be settled in a year’s time and those settling a month from now shrank to $6.22 a barrel yesterday, compared with $11.69 a barrel on March 30. The narrowing of the discount between short- and long-term crude often indicates that an oversupply in the near-term is abating.

Daily Technical Analysis & Elliot Wave Forex/Cross/Gold/Oil/CFD

By Ahmad Mudjo

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Forex : Fase Konsolidasi Menjelang Pertemuan ECB & BOE

Technical Analysis

EUR-USD
Euro masih berada dalam trend bullish dari konfirmasi bullish continuation didukung oleh indikator ADX terkoreksi, stochastic dan MACD bullish, seharusnya masih membatasi potensi kenaikan hari ini. Support berada di 1.4290/1.4350 (lower channel), Resistance berada di 1.4460/1.4500. Euro berada wave proses V dalam wave 3 zig zag, untuk target $ 1.4730, selama tidak mencapai dibawah 1.4030. Buy 1.4335 target 1.4500, buy 1.4170 target 1.4270 stop 60p, hold buy 1.4380 target 1.4550. sell 1.4550 & 1.4730 target 1.4330 buy break 1.4550 trgt 1.4730.

USD-JPY
USDJPY masih berada dalam pola bearish uptrend channel di daily chart, meski kenaikan teratas di upper channel 95.85, bilamana ditutup diatas level tersebut akan memutarbalikan trend menjadi netral target 96.70. Indikator ADX urun, stochastic crossup, MACD bearish, seharusnya mendukung peluang kenaikan terbatas selama gagal ditutup diatas 95.60. Resistance berada di 95.85, support di 94.40. Buy 94.40 target 95.60 stop 100p. Sell 95.65 target 93.00. buy 93.50 & Buy 92.60 stop 89.80 target 95.60. Sell 96.70 target 95.00.

GBP-USD
GBP masih berada dalam pola broadening bullish dan pola bullish contininuation, diikuti indikator ADX terkroeksi, stochastic dan MACD berada di teritorial bullish, mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas selama tidak ditutup diatas 1.7080 (projection 61.8%). Buy 1.6860 target 1.7050. hold sell 1.7000 target 1.6750 stop 60p, buy break 1.7100 target 1.7250. Sell break 1.6650 target 1.6350 stop 60p. Sell break 1.6340 target 1.6100 stop 100p.

AUD-USD
AUD breakout uptrend channel minor dalam downtrend channel, menunjukkan potensi technical rebound lebih lanjut, diikuti ADX meningkat, stochastic overbought, MACD masih bullish, mendukung potensi kenaikan ke target 0.8500, selama di bawah 0.8130. Resistance di 0.8450/0.8500, support di 0.8350. Buy 0.8350 target 0.8450, sell 0.8500 target 0.8300 & sell break 0.8130 stop 0.8170. sell break 0.8000 target 0.7900. Buy 0.8150 target 0.8300 stop 0.8100.


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Laporan Fundamental & Rumor Emiten 06-082009

Research BNP Paribas: ASII target Rp 35,700, INDF Rp 3,000, TLKM Rp 9800

Research Deutsche Bank : SMCB Rp 1,800, SMGR Rp 7,750, INTP Rp 13,000

Research Credit Suisse: ITMG Rp 22,000

Research Morgan Stanley: INDF Hold target Rp 2,355

Research CLSA Asia: Top Pick ADRO Rp 1,500

Research Kim Eng: upgrade buy INTP Rp 11,000

Byan bangun pabrk batubara US$ 68 juta

BUMI Raup US$ 260 Juta dari Obligasi Enercoal
Enercoal Pte Ltd, anak usaha PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) akhirnya merilis obligasi konversi atau convertible bond US$ 375 juta.

JSMR Akan Akuisisi Tiga Tol Mangkrak
PT Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR) semakin ekspansif. Tahun ini, JSMR berniat mengakuisisi tiga proyek jalan tol mangkrak.

Energi Jajaki Obligasi Konversi
PT Energi Mega Persada Tbk (ENRG) dikabarkan bakal menyusul langkah PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) menerbitkan obligasi konversi (CB), seiring antusiasme pembelian CB Bumi oleh investor.
Menurut sumber Investor Daily, kabar yang beredar di pasar menyebutkan bahwa perseroan tengah memfinalisasi rencana tersebut. Bahkan, Mitsubishi Corporation dikabarkan siap menjadi pembeli. Harga konversi kemungkinan berkisar Rp 675-750 per saham.

Cermati Saham Antam
SAHAM PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) dikabarkan bakal diburu sejumlah broker, seiring naiknya harga nikel dunia menjadi US$ 20 ribu per ton.
Sumber Investor Daily mengungkapkan, hampir finalnya rencana Antam membeli saham Newmont juga akan menjadi momentum kenaikan harga ANTM ke level 2.500-3.000. Pada perdagangan kemarin, ANTM ditutup stagnan di posisi Rp 2.300.

September, Pemegang Bond Tukar Bond ke Saham BUMI
Susan Silaban
Pemegang obligasi PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) dapat mengkonversikan obligasinya ke saham tehitung sejak 41 hari setelah penerbitan obligasi itu hingga 10 hari sebelum tanggal jatuh tempo.

Target Harga Indah Kiat Rp2.000

BBRI: Akuisisi, Sipakan Rp500 M
BBRI menyiapakan dana sebesar Rp500 miliar untuk mengakuisisi bank umum guna mendukung ekspansi di UMKM.

RINA: Jajaki Rights Issue Hingga Rp100 M

BUMI: Jaminkan 5,6% Saham, Harga Obligasi Konversi Rp 3.366,9

DGIK: Bidik Proyek di 3 Negara US$300 Jt

ELTY: Jajaki Pinjaman Talangan Rp500 M

Pesanan Membludak, Target Penjualan ORI006 Dinaikkan 133%

Sumber: Investor daily, Detik, Inilah, Kontan, Bloomberg, Reuters.


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IHSG Berada Dalam Fase Konsolidasi, Potensi Rebound Terbatas

Market Review
Aksi profit-taking melanda saham domestik, karena para investor telah mengantisipasi penurunan suku bunga acuan Bank Indonesia sebesar 25 bsp menjadi 6.50% dan melepas saham yang relatif mahal seperti ASII, BBRI, BMRI, TLKM, ITMG dan imbas penurunan indeks saham regional Asia kemarin. IHSG sempat mencapai level terendah 2,308.094 sebelum rebound di sesi penutupan. Positifnya laporan harga obligasi konversi anak usaha PT Bumi Resources kemarin, berperan angkat sentimen di sejumlah saham grup Bakrie, dapat menahan laju penurunan IHSG lebih lanjut. Tertekannya rupiah terhadap dolar ke level penutupan Rp 9,900, ikut memberikan sentimen negatif kepada IHSG. IHSG anjlok 43.031 poin (-1.823%) ditutup di 2,317.063, dengan nilai transaksi Rp 5.797 triliun. Investor asing mencatat net sell Rp 41.632 miliar, dibandingkan net buying Rp 743.67 miliar hari Selasa (04/08).

Indeks saham MSCI Asia-Pacific anjlok untuk pertama kali di bulan ini, setelah saham Isuzu Motor Ltd dan Elpida Memory Inc melaporkan kerugian finansial. Indeks saham Nikkei turun 1.2%, setelah menguat 29% dalam 6 bulan terakhir. Indeks Shanghai turun 1.2%, Hong Kong turun 1.5%. 35% dari 342 perusahaan di indeks MSCI Asia Pacific yang telah melaporkan earning, tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan pasar.

IHSG Outlook

Ind P/E (x)
EPS
Y/Y Y/Y Suku Bunga* Inflasi*
Y/Y GDP*
Y/Y
IHSG 15.0 8% +5.9% 6.50% 2.7% 4.4%
STI 22.0 16% -9.7% 0.69% -0.70% -10.1%
KLCI 14.9 10% +1.3% 2.0% 3.00% -6.2%
SET 13.5 4% -10.5% 1.25% -3.30% -7.10%
SSE 43.4 36% +18% 5.31% -1.40% 7.9%
N225 47.8 -1% -25.4% 0.10% -0.10% -9.7%
HSI 26.5 19% -10.1% 0.50% 0.60% -7.80%
DJIA 17.4 3% -17.3% 0.25% -1.4% -3.6%
* Negara Bersangkutan

Sesuai dengan perkiraan kami “buy on rumor, sell on the news” keputusan BI pangkas suku bunga acuan sebesar 25 bsp menjadi 6.50% dan aksi profit taking saham unggulan memiliki valuasi mahal dan kondisi teknikal overbought, serta terkoreksinya indeks saham regional memiliki valuasi termahal sejak 2003, mendorong penurunan IHSG mendekati level 2,300 kemarin. Dampak kenaikan harga komoditi gagal dimanfaatkan mayoritas saham komoditi pertambangan dan perkebunan, karena investor masih menunggu sejumlah data ekonomi global (data Payroll AS hari Jumat), pertemuan bank sentral Eropa dan Inggris diikuti inventory crude oil AS hari Rabu (05/08), mungkin akan memberikan kejutan kepada pasar di akhir pekan ini, meski secara keseluruhan IHSG masih berada dalam kondisi uptrend dengan kondisi teknikal yang overbought yang harus diwaspadai untuk signal reversal.

Sementara potensi penurunan IHSG terbatas, karena potensi kenaikan indeks saham regional dan Wall Street, laporan BI bahwa trend bullish di pasar modal masih terus berlanjut (kapitalisasi BEI naik Rp 210.6 triliun di bulan Juli dari Juni menjadi Rp 1,764.3 triliun), isu positif dari grup Bakrie, solidnya hasil earning domestik dan AS, Goldman Sachs kerek target harga saham bank (BMRI Rp 4,200, BBRI Rp 9,000, BBCA Rp 4,500, BDMN Rp 6,000) dan perkiraan pertumbuhan ekonomi RI yang solid di 2009/2010, seharusnya memberikan support kepada IHSG.

Stock Picks: Average last 6 week +46.49%. Target 10-30%, Risk < -10%. Tight Stop.
Hold Buy: JSMR, ISAT, INCO, BBCA, BBRI, MNCN, TRUB, SMCB, BUMI, ENRG, ELTY, BNBR, BUDI, BSDE, KLBF, WIKA.

Stock Picks:
• HEXA : Overweight target Rp 3,250
• JPFA : Buy target Rp 850

Global Outlook
Kuatnya sentimen posiitf dari sejumlah data ekonomi global dan hasil earning emiten global semester 1 2009 yang memicu spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi global di akhir tahun ini dan melihat resesi kemungkinan telah berakhir, dapat diimbangi oleh sejumlah sentimen negatif yang muncul dalam beberapa hari terakhir, seperti laporan tenaga kerja AS dimana ISM Services Juli AS tercatat 46.1 dan ADP Employer Services bulan Juli tercatat 371,000 dibawah perkiraan pasar, Factory Orders AS +0.4%, Challenger Layoffs menunjukkan rencana pemotongan tenaga kerja meningkat 31% di bulan Juli, memicu spekulasi lebih lemah data Non Farm Payroll AS dirilis Jumat. Diperburuk oleh earning yang negatif dari Procter & Gamble, Marsh & Mc Lennan AS, Lloyds bank Inggris, mahalnya valuasi indeks S&P 500 (PER 17.1x) serta inventory minyak +1.67juta. Sementara potensi penurunan indeks saham global terbatas, berkat perkiraan pasar akan konsolidasi sebelum pertemuan ECB & BOE hari ini.

Technical Analysis:
IHSG kembali menunjukkan signal negatif dari candle bearish engulfing setelah sebelumnya menunjukkan signal shooting star yang merupakan high reliability reversal, diikuti kegagalan ditutup diatas middle line channel di 2,333 kemarin dan ditutup dibawah trendline 2,352 dalam pola ascending channel yang menunjukkan indikasi false break pada hari Selasa (04/05). Selama gagal ditutup diatas 2,357 (trendline) IHSG dapat mengarah ke support channel di 2,292/2,263 (10-day MA). Resistance berada di 2,386 (projection 161.8). Indikator ADX terkoreksi , MACD dan stochastic bullish kendati overbought, seharusnya dukung . Hitungan Elliot Wave menunjukkan wave minor v (perkiraan peak di 2,382/2,425???) dalam extended motive wave 5 - siklus intermediate 4 / B.
Resistance: 2383.62/2366.98/2350.34/2339.91. PP 2329.49
Support : 2296.21/2275.36/2248.29/2221.22
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2,270 - 2,350)

Indikasi Teknikal Reversal Menunjukkan Potensi Penurunan Indeks Asia Lebih Lanjut

Laporan Pasar
Nikkei Futures Kontrak September (SSIU9)
Indeks Nikkei mencatat penurunan 1,18% kemarin, menyusul aksi ambil investor setelah kemarin indeks tersebut membukukan level tertinggi dalam 10 bulan terakhir. Sementara itu, Toyota Motor Co anjlok setelah melaporkan kerugian pada kuartal kedua tahun ini. sedangkan Fast Retailing juga jatuh 3,5% setelah penjualan di salah satu outletnya, Uniqlo, turun bulan lalu, untuk pertama kalinya dalam 9 bulan terakhir.
Di chart daily, indeks keluar dari pola uptrend channel, dimana ditutup dibawah 10,403 (channel support) diikuti pola candle long black (bearish continuation). Sementara indikator masih mendukung potensi penurunan ADX terkoreksi, stochastic (overbought) dan MACD bullish, seharusnya mendukung potensi penurunan lebih lanjut. Resistance di 10457 (ex channel support)/10870). Support 10200 (10-day MA) /10107 (downward channel). Perkiraan range hari ini 10250-10450. Rekomendasi Sell 10450 target 10200 stp 100p. Hold Buy 10250 target 10450 stop 100p, Buy 10100 target 10300 stop 50p, sell break 10000 target 9750. Chart SSIU9 Daily

Kospi Futures Kontrak September (KSU9)
Jatuhnya bursa saham regional dan indeks Dow future membuat indeks Kospi melemah 0,37% kemarin. Selain itu, saham teknologi seperti LG Electronics dan LG Display turut memberi tekanan bagi indeks Kospi. Terkoreksi saham-saham teknologi dikarenakan rallynya saham itu selama perdagangan bulan lalu. Indeks Kospi .KS11 ditutup turun 6,90 poin, atau 0,44%, ke posisi 1.559,47 poin.
Dalam chart daily, indeks masih berada dalam uptrend channel, meski gagal ditutup diatas trendline 206.79 untuk konfirmasi bullish continuation dan menunjukkan potensi reversal dari candle two crows. Kondisi stochastic overbought, MACD bullish dan ADX trending up, seharusnya masih mendukung potensi penurunan. Resistance berada di 207.40/211.50 (upper channel). Support di 203.00/200.05. Rekomendasi Sell break 202 & 199.00 target 193.00 stop 100p, buy 199.50 target 203.50, buy 193.00 target 197.50 stop 100p. Sell 206.00 & 207.50 target 202.00 stop 100p. (-100+300p) Chart KSU9 Daily

Hang Seng Futures Kontrak Agustus (HSIQ9)
Indeks Hang Seng jatuh 1,45% kemarin, dipimpin saham perbankan Cina karena mencuatnya kembali kekhawatiran mengenai kemungkinan pengetatan kebijaka moneter Cina, untuk meredam likuiditas. Saham Cathay Pacific anjlok 3,6% meski perusahaan itu melaporkan laba, karena memutuskan tidak membayarkan dividen interim. Indeks Hang Seng .HSI ditutup jatuh 301,66 poin, atau 1,45%, ke posisi 20494,77.
Dalam chart daily, indeks kembali gagal ditutup diatas trendline, malah menunjukkan signal negatif dari candle two crows (moderate reliability reversal), diartikan false break di tengah overboughtnya kondisi stochastic dan MACD, ADX terkoreksi, seharusnya mendukung potensi penurunan indeks hari ini. Resistance di 20.836 (trendline)/21179. Support 20335 (10-day MA)/17979 (123.6 FR)). Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan wave v extended dalam subwave motive (3) cycle B. Rekomendasi : Sell break 20120 target 19800 (or closing) stop 100 p. Buy 20350 target 20750 stop 100p. Buy 19.760 target 19500. Sell 20850 & 21065 target 20300 stop 100p

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

Written by Oil N' Gold | Wed Aug 05 09 06:58 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, an intraday top should be in place at 72.20 and intraday outlook in crude oil is turned neutral for the moment. Some more consolidations might be seen but downside should be contained well above 62.7 support and bring rally resumption. Above 72.20 will target key cluster level at 73.38 with 100% projection of 58.32 to 68.99 from 62.7 at 73.36. On the downside, note that 62.70 support is needed to indicate that rise from 58.32 has completed. Otherwise, short term outlook will remain bullish.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 33.2 is likely still in progress as crude oil is trading well inside rising channel from there. Current rise from 58.32 should be resuming such rebound and will likely make another high above 73.38, probably to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. But strong resistance will likely be seen as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone. Hence, we'd look for sign of reversal and loss of momentum as crude oil as the current rise continues. On the downside, break of 62.70 support will argue that crude oil has possibly topped out earlier than we expect and break of 58.32 support will now be an important signal that such medium term rise from 33.2 has already completed.

Gold Daily Technical Outlook

Written by Oil N' Gold | Wed Aug 05 09 06:59 ET
Comex Gold (GC)

Gold's rally extends further to as high as 972.7 so far and at this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 953.0 minor support holds. Current rise from 904.8 is still expected to extend further to 100% projection of 904.8 to 962.7 from 927.6 at 985.4 next. But as discussed before, as price actions from 1007.7 might be developing into triangle consolidation, upside of the current rise will possibly be limited between 985.4 and 992.1 and bring at least another fall to conclude the consolidation. On the downside, below 953.0 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. Further break of 927.6 support will indicate that rebound from 904.8 has completed and will bring fall to test this low.

In the bigger picture, as discussed before, fall from 992.1 is either part of triangle consolidation from 1007.7 or a correction to rise from 865. We're slightly preferring the former case. But after all, in either case, there are some possible scenarios that will bring more consolidation below 1007.7. So we'd stay neutral as long as 1007.7 resistance holds and be prepared for another fall before completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, the case of another deep fall to 865 is not likely. Break of 992.1 /1007.7 resistance will indicate that whole rise from 681 has resumed for 1033.9 key resistance next.

Gold Near Summer Lows Prior to Strong Seasonal Rally

By: GoldCore

Commodities
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGoldCore believe that gold has hit or is soon to hit its traditional late summer low price prior to the traditional strong gold rally in the autumn and early winter months.Recent years have seen a late summer sell off with a low price being seen normally between mid July and mid August.
We commented on this very important seasonal trend on Friday and were quoted up by Bloomberg:

Gold May Fall, Heading for 'Summer Doldrum Lows,' Survey Shows
"Gold's trend looks to be down again, Mark O'Byrne, executive director of Goldcore Ltd. in Dublin, said by e-mail. Gold is "likely to see the summer doldrum lows in the next two weeks, and may decline to as low as $864/oz, followed by a rebound, he said."Buying gold during the summer doldrums has been a winning trade for most of the last 34 years and especially in the last seven years, according to O'Byrne.
The weekly gold survey has forecast prices accurately in 157 of 272 weeks, or 58 percent of the time.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=aA1TCOpJYI4Q

Gold Rises, Heading for Monthly Gain, on China's Demand Outlook
Jewelry makers usually stock up on gold after summer in the Northern Hemisphere for the wedding season in India and year-end holidays in the U.S. and Europe, according to Mark O'Byrne, executive director of Goldcore Ltd. in Dublin.Gold has advanced 6.5 percent this year, lagging most commodities as investors sold the metal. It may drop to as low as $864 in the next two weeks before rebounding, O'Byrne said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=aT91UGtcFEps

Daily Technical Analysis & Elliot Wave Forex/Cross/Gold/Oil/CFD

By Ahmad Mudjo

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Daily Technical Analysis Forex/DJIA

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FOREX Ltd | Aug 04 09 11:27 GMT |

CHF
The estimated variant for sales was implemented with overlap of minimal anticipated targets. OsMA trend indicator, after divergence formation, marked reverse momentum but further bullish activity rise was not enough for upside movement and now, considering bullish activity fall, you should expect retest of lower channel border, where it is recommended to reevaluate the development of the activity of both parties in accordance with the charts of shorter time interval. As for buying positions, the targets will be 1,0680/1,0700 and (or) further variant up to 1,7040/60, 1,0820. The alternative break-out variant for sales on condition of formation of confirmative signals will be below 1,0560 with the targets of 1,0500/20 further variant up to 1,0390/1,0410, 1,0220.
GBP
The estimated variant for buying positions has been implemented with overlap of maximum targets. At this point, OsMA trend indicator marked topping signal that together with bearish activity rise suggests rate return to close supports with further test of this zone. As for sales, the targets will be 1,6840/60 and (or) further variant up to 1,6750/70, 1,6680. The alternative for buying positions on condition of the formation of confirmative signals the targets will be 1,6980/1,7000 and (or) further variant up to 1,7030, 1,7070/90.
JPY
The pre-planned long positions were implemented with the overlap of minimum estimated target. OsMA trend indicator marked bearish activity rise. On the assumption of it as well as of the absence of close support levels and of descending direction of indicator chart we can suppose further development of short positions priority. In this case it is necessary to pay attention to false break-outs and to the possibility of rate return to the channel borders, therefore you shouldn’t forget about the signals of shorter intervals. As for sales, the targets will be 94,00/10 and (or) further variant up to 93,30/50, 92,20/40. As for buying positions, the targets will be 94,70/90 and (or) further variant up to 95,20/40, 95,80, 96,40.
EUR
The estimated targets for long positions were implemented with overlap of maximum targets in the result of rate rebound from support level. OsMA trend indicator, having marked bearish activity top, suggests further rate rise and testing of upper channel border. As for short-term buying positions, the targets will be 1,4440 and (or) further variant up to 1,4520/40, 1,4670. As for sales, the targets will be 1,4360, 1,4260/80 and (or) further variant up to 1,4180/1,4200, 1,4030/50.
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade |
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 9258.73, 9235.25 and 9202.50(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 9181.30, where correction also can be. Then follows 9154.46. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 9129.37. Continuation will bring 9113.50.Today's resistance: - 9334.47 and 9360.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 9387.72, where a correction may happen. Then follows 9413.44, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 9438.65. Continuation would bring 9450.00 and 9469.68.

Laporan Keuangan & Rumor Emiten (05 Agustus 2008)

* Bakrieland 'Road Show' ke Singapura & Hong Kong
PT Bakrieland Developement Tbk (ELTY) tengah mengkuti Indonesia Corporate Day bersama UBS di Singapura dan Hong Kong.

* Umumkan Cum Dividen, Saham Adaro Positif

* Bukit Asam Rambah Bisnis Gas Batubara
PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) akan mengembangkan bisnis coal bed methane (CBM)atau gas metana batubara bersama PT Pertamina EP dan Arrow Energy Holdings PTE Ltd.

* Bakrie Telecom Terima Dana Penjualan Menara PT Bakrie Telecom Tbk (BTEL) akan menerima dana pembayaran tahap terakhir penjualan 543 menara telekomunikasi dari PT Solusi Tunas Pratama senilai Rp 90 miliar September mendatang.

* Rumor dewa akan right issue diharga yg tinggi.

* PT CIMB-GK Securities Indonesia merekomendasikan pilihan saham perbankan tetap pada PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI) dan PT Bank Danamon Tbk (BDMN).

* PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) menetapkan harga obligasi konversi atau convertible bond senilai US$375 juta sebesar Rp3.366,90 per sahamnya.

* Harga saham PT Mustika Ratu Tbk (MRAT) berpeluang mencapai level Rp600 dalam jangka pendek.

* Bayar Utang, XL Rights Issue US$ 300 Juta

* Bhakti Investama Tbk (BHIT) mencatatkan perolehan laba bersih sebesar Rp74,49 miliar atau turun 31,35% dibanding perolehan laba periode yang sama 2008 sebesar Rp108,5 miliar.

* Pada kuartal II-2009, nilai penjualan Antam turun 44% dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun lalu menjadi Rp1,755 triliun seiring dengan penurunan volume penjualan dan harga jual komoditas nikel.

* Bhakti Capital Indonesia Tbk (BCAP) berhasil mencetak laba bersih sebesar Rp38,16 miliar atau naik 126,2% dibanding laba periode yang sama 2008 sebesar Rp16,87 miliar.

* Bakrie Tuntaskan 'Blue Print' Strategi Usaha

* Harga CPO Anjlok, Laba TBLA Melorot 54,5%
Gara-gara harga jual CPO anjlok, kinerja keuangan PT Tunas Baru Lampung Tbk (TBLA) pun merosot.

* MPPA Menerbitkan Obligasi US$ 200 Juta

* Pabrik Pengolahan Briket Batubara Bayan Beroperasi
PT Bayan Resources Tbk telah merampungkan pembangunan pabrik pengolahan briket batubara. Pabrik ini sudah mulai beroperasi pada Juli 2009.

Sumber: Inilah.com, Investor Daily, Kontan, Detik.com

Oil May Set 2009 High, Won’t Fall Below $66: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil remains in a technical rally that may bring prices to a new 2009 high above $73 a barrel, while keeping the market from falling below $66, according to National Australia Bank Ltd. Oil may extend its three-week uptrend as long as it can settle above $72 a barrel in New York, according to Gordon Manning, a Sydney-based technical analyst. Such a move would also raise the market’s support level, potentially offering traders an entry point in case of a decline.“A close above $72 to $73.50 would be quite significant,” Manning said in a telephone interview. “It would be in keeping with what we’ve seen elsewhere, for example in the stock markets and in copper.”

Oil rose above $72 a barrel on Aug. 3, without settling higher than that level, as increasing industrial activity in the U.S. and China raised hopes fuel demand will recover. The contract for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange traded at $71.64 a barrel at 8:25 a.m. in Singapore, up 22 cents. Futures have gained 61 percent so far in 2009. On the daily continuation chart, the market faces resistance at the June 30 high of $73.38, an eight-month high. If the current ascending channel holds, that level may be breached by the end of this week. “Oil is gaining upside with a break to a new high looked for anytime,” Manning said in a report yesterday. “A daily close above $73 will see the $50 support raised to $66.”

Any upgrade of support to $66 a barrel would come just days of the market trading below that price. Oil on July 29 fell 5.8 percent, the most in about three months, after an unexpected increase in U.S. crude inventories highlighted concern over weak fundamentals.Manning maintained his longer-term target for oil to approach an area around $88 to $100 a barrel. The market hasn’t traded above $88 since Oct. 9.
“The way things are going, I won’t be surprised if we get there before the end of the year,” he said.

Research Saham Sekuritas Asing IHSG & Emiten

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Sentimen Positif Dari Perkiraan Pemulihan Ekonomi Global Support Euro FX & USD-JPY

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Isu Penurunan Suku Bunga BI & Teknikal Support IHSG

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Signal Teknikal Reversal Dapat Menahan Laju Bull Trend Indeks Saham Asia

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S&P 500 Will Extend Gain 10%, Acampora Says: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will climb at least 10 percent more this year after rising 50 percent from a 12-year low and topping 1,000 for the first time since President Barack Obama’s election, Ralph Acampora said.

The index climbed 1.5 percent to 1,002.63 yesterday, the highest close since Nov. 4, on growing speculation the recession is ending. Stocks have been bolstered by better-than-estimated economic reports, including data on gross domestic product on July 31 that spurred speculation the recession is near an end. The S&P 500 will gain at least 100 more points this year as a recovery takes hold, Acampora said.“I won’t say it’s clear sailing, but there really is a lot of room for growth,” said Acampora, who retired as one of Wall Street’s best-known technical analysts in 2007 and went back to work managing money this year at Geneva-based Altaira Wealth Management. “Any move above 1,000 will just reinforce this bullish market that’s unfolding. I’m looking at it as a positive.”

Obama’s victory on Nov. 4 was followed the next day by a 5.3 percent drop in the S&P 500, the biggest retreat after a presidential election. The index went on to plunge 33 percent through March 9 on mounting bank losses and rising unemployment. It has rebounded 50 percent from a 12-year intraday low on March 6, the steepest rally since the Great Depression, as government programs to unlock credit markets and restart economic growth boosted expectations of a recovery.

The equity benchmark’s close above 1,000 will spur further gains as it attracts mutual funds and larger investors who remained skeptical of the five-month rally, said Ryan Detrick, senior technical analyst at Schaeffer’s Investment Research in Cincinnati. U.S.-oriented stock funds lost an average 39 percent in 2008, a percentage point more than the S&P 500, and gained 19 percent in the second quarter, trailing the index’s 36 percent advance from March 9 through June. “Institutional money really moves the market more than the average investor,” Detrick said. “They know they’ve got to get in.”

Euro May Reach $1.472 on ‘Bullish Breakout’: Technical Analysis

By Candice Zachariahs

(Bloomberg) -- The euro may approach its December high of $1.4720 after breaking through “key” resistance at $1.4338, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said, citing trading patterns.“A bullish breakout is under way following the impulsive advance” through the June high, Niall O’Connor, a technical analyst at JPMorgan in New York, wrote in a note to clients today. “The upside bias will likely shift into a grind higher, but keep in mind there is little evidence of a topping pattern right now.”

The euro climbed as high as $1.4445 yesterday, the strongest since Dec. 18, before closing at $1.4412, a 16 percent advance from this year’s low of $1.2457 on March 4. The 16- nation currency traded at $1.4395 as of 10:07 a.m. in Tokyo.“We see upside risk into the $1.45 area, if not a closer test of the 1.4720 December high,” O’Connor wrote.The euro advanced for a third day yesterday as the Dollar Index, which the ICE uses to track the dollar against currencies of six major U.S. trading partners including the euro and the yen, dropped to a 10-month low of 77.451.

The Dollar Index has broken a number of so-called support levels, including its 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement from the 2008 low of 70.698, confirming a “bearish bias,” O’Connor wrote. The next major target for the Dollar Index is its September 2008 low of 75.89, he said.Fibonacci analysis uses ratios, which are based on the sequence identified by an Italian mathematician in the 13th century, to predict support and resistance levels for prices. Support is where buy orders may be clustered, while resistance is where there may be sell orders.n technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast price changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

Written by Oil N' Gold | Tue Aug 04 09 07:25 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil's rally extends further to as high as 72.20 before retreating mildly. Nevertheless, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 69.51 minor support holds. Whole rise from 58.32 is still expected to continue to key cluster level at 73.38 with 100% projection of 58.32 to 68.99 from 62.7 at 73.36. On the downside, below 69.51 will indicate that an intraday top is in place and bring consolidation. But break of 62.70 support is needed to indicate that rise from 58.32 has completed. Otherwise, short term outlook will remain bullish.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 33.2 is likely still in progress as crude oil is trading well inside rising channel from there. Current rise from 58.32 should be resuming such rebound and will likely make another high above 73.38, probably to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. But strong resistance will likely be seen as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone. Hence, we'd look for sign of reversal and loss of momentum as crude oil as the current rise continues. On the downside, break of 62.70 support will argue that crude oil has possibly topped out earlier than we expect and break of 58.32 support will now be an important signal that such medium term rise from 33.2 has already completed

Gold Daily Technical Outlook

Written by Oil N' Gold | Tue Aug 04 09 07:26 ET
Comex Gold (GC)

With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, an intraday top should be in place at 966.9 and intraday outlook in gold is turned neutral for the moment. Some retreat might be seen to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 948.0). But break of 927.6 support is needed to indicate that rebound from 904.8 has completed. Otherwise, short term outlook will remain bullish. On the upside, above 966.9 will target 100% projection of 904.8 to 962.7 from 927.6 at 985.4 next. But as discussed before, as price actions from 1007.7 might be developing into triangle consolidation, upside of the current rise will possibly be limited between 985.4 and 992.1 and bring at least another fall to conclude the consolidation.

In the bigger picture, as discussed before, fall from 992.1 is either part of triangle consolidation from 1007.7 or a correction to rise from 865. We're slightly preferring the former case. But after all, in either case, there are still some possible scenarios that will bring more consolidation below 1007.7. So we'd stay neutral as long as 1007.7 resistance holds and be prepared for another fall before completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, the case of another deep fall to 865 is not likely. Break of 992.1 /1007.7 resistance will indicate that whole rise from 681 has resumed for 1033.9 key resistance next.

Stock Market Long Wave Theory 92% Right (On S&P 500); Buffett & Roubini 75% Wrong

By: Andrew_Butter

Stock-Markets
January 2009 I thought I’d see if "market-long-wave" theory (which I previously only used for real estate), works for the US stock market. Now that the Bears seem to have almost completely disappeared and the S&P 500 is flirting with 1,000 I thought I’d have a look and see how it did:

Looks like it works...new paradigm perhaps?

Notes on Scoring:
The one mistake with market-long-waves was in January when I misread the wave periodicity, I corrected that in February, so I'll count that as half (6.5 ÷ 7 = 92% right).Warren Buffet's call for 900 in February was correct in principle, but in the long term (after five months), and there was a 25% drop in-between; so I'll give him half; Professor Roubini was 100% wrong about the dead-cat-bounce; so that's (1.5 ÷ 2 = 75% wrong).

Stocks Bear Market Rally Coming to an End

By: Andre_Gratian

Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCurrent Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Down! The very-long-term cycles have taken over and if they make their lows when expected, the bear market which started in October 2007 should continue until 2012-2014.
SPX: Intermediate trend - The counter-trend rally which started in March is now coming to an end. The objective for a high is being reached and deceleration is becoming apparent. If the top has not already been reached, it should be, shortly!
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determines the course of longer market trends.Daily market analysis of the short term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at ajg@cybertrails.com .

Overview:
Signs that the rally from 667 may be coming to an end are appearing. The newsletter of 7/20 stated the following:
"There are now two potential projections for the high in the SPX: 962 and 1000. We'll have to decide which of the two will work best as we move forward".
Last Thursday, the SPX traded at 996.68 which is very close to the higher projection then backed off, closing on Friday at 987.30.
That alone is not convincing enough that we have seen the high, but next week should give us some additional confirmation since the time projection was given as the end of July into the first part of August. Furthermore, between 7/23 and 7/29, the consolidation made by the index established a Point & Figure count which has the potential of reaching all the way to 1020. 996 was only the half span of the potential count. Whether or not we go higher will depend on how much weakness there is on Monday's opening. If the opening thrust takes prices below 980, it will increase the possibility that Thursday was the high of the move. A move below 976 with hourly A/D's in excess of -1500 would make it even more so.

In spite of its appearance and points gained, there are a number of signs that the move from 667 was not a particularly strong move, especially the "C" wave (?) which is currently ending. The volume has been on the weak side, and the entire pattern is beginning to look like a wedge which is approaching a .382 retracement of the decline from 1576. Everything considered, there are a lot of reasons to believe that we could be nearing an important top. Let's look at individual charts!

What's ahead?
Chart Pattern and Momentum
The weekly chart clearly shows why we have arrived at some important resistance from a number of different sources: there is a former top from 11/4/08, a top channel line (black dashed line), .382 retracement of the decline from the October high, and the top line of the wedge which is being formed from the 667 low. This should be good enough for at least a pull-back! In addition, consider that the top indicator is very overbought and that the lower indicator is beginning to show negative divergence in the histogram. Not to mention the other reasons given in the opening remarks.
On the other hand, if we continue to move up from here, we will have to revise our entire potential scenario for a top.

The daily chart (below) is showing some of the same characteristics as the weekly: Overbought momentum oscillator and divergence beginning to appear in the histogram, but the most weakness is showing in the A/D oscillator which has plenty of divergence to the price and to the momentum oscillator. The SPX is hitting resistance created by the top wedge line (red) and the extension of the former trend line (dashes). It is also trading outside of its narrow up-channel. All that is needed for a confirmed sell is for the price to close below the red horizontal line which is roughly at 967.

Stock Market Bulls Rush In

By: Joseph_Russo

Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn a recent article entitled, “June Gloom / Summer Rally” penned just two months ago, we brought to readers’ attention the prospect of a summer rally following a brief period of gloom in June. We wrapped up that piece with the following remarks:
“As in 2007, July provides such opportunity for a commensurate equity consolidation. Following a successful summer/fall rally thereafter, October of 2009, the two-year anniversary of the all-time high may bring with it an echo of the blind bullishness experienced at that time.”
Although the equity market decline from late June into the early July period was hardly commensurate with the massive run up from March, it nonetheless provided a base from which to launch the summer rally currently in progress. The jury remains out as to whether or not this summer rally shall extend into the fall, or if it succumbs to an abrupt failure at some point in August.

Baby breath’s of Exhale into early July
Mid-way through the 790-pt 8.89% correction the Dow registered into early July; we penned another article entitled “Waiting to Exhale”. In this piece, we presented the analogy of drug addiction and its related health effects as they might translate to fascist intervention upon the manmade schemes of finance and politics. We closed that piece with the following commentary:
“The most vexing concept associated with this analogous tale of intrigue, is that it remains disturbingly plausible that with continued administration of these hyper-nuclear drugs, they might just give this otherwise very dead patient, the very real impression that they are still alive and well.”“The gravity of such distortions carries the outlandish possibility of eventually delivering a hallucinogenic denial-induced rally taking equities back up toward their 2007 highs. There, we said it. As morbid as it is, until we are able to record (or admit) a time of death, so long as we remain open to constant rule changes and creative innovation, anything can happen by the hand of the wonderful wizards of Wall Street and Washington.”

Shepherds of Illusion engender a continuation of the desired stampede
As the Dow approached its early July low, we offered readers opinion on what we believe might be some of the goals resident amid small ruling elite bodies which maintain full-spectrum control and order over the masses. We titled the piece “Shepherds of Illusion”. Our thought summary from this piece was the following:
“In summarizing our viewpoints, the potency and effect of distortive interventionist political and monetary policies together with participants herding tendencies to "stampede" are in fact what determines that authorities' success or failure in maintaining their monopoly and status quo preferences, all of which are vital to their ongoing supreme and elite existence of full spectrum dominance and rule." “Regimes successful in the management and chosen direction of desired policy-induced stampedes, will likely fulfill their prime directives and remain effectively dominant and in vital control of the masses.”





















Given the second wind of bullish stampede that occurred throughout July, it would appear that those at central command thus far remain in charge of this non-violent manmade crisis, and thus remain in firm control of their standing monopolies. Relative to the current power structure, market participants’ stampeding reactions, and plausible Elliott Wave counts, how is all this shaking out thus far?

Their back - and stone cold sober as a matter of fact
The real ***** of the matter is the lost opportunity for those loyal to the basic principles of the US constitution. A missed opportunity to engender from this crises radical change of substance that might have returned the union back to the beacon of unwavering hope and disciplined leadership that it was intended to exemplify and indefinitely produce. Instead, it appears that for now, central bankers, powerful lobby elites, and politicians have pulled another rabbit out of their mystical hats in orchestrating the coup of the century. At the precipice of total collapse, they managed to bail themselves out by fiat, and now coddle the confused peonage under their control to be patient and trusting that good fortune will too come their way - eventually.

Perennial Bull’s, Armageddonists, and other such Fools
Wait long enough, and the Armageddonists are sure to rise as most prescient. After all, there is no dispute that in the end, we are all dead, as the planet upon which we subsist will one day fail of natural causes beyond our control. However, such fate may not become our species for thousands and thousands of years. To that probability, it is foolish to cling to such prospects as imminent despite whatever it is that the Mayan calendar may suggest. On the other hand, those with a permanent belief that markets will always come back to surpass former highs despite whatever degree of systemic inoperable cancer may clog arteries of global commerce and civil equity, are just as misguided as those awaiting the impending onset of end-of-days.
Somewhere between exists another dimension of consciousness known as the reality zone of relevant probability. Recognizing things for what they are, and how they have come to be is the first step in coming to understand the world around us, especially when it comes to manmade schemes involving money, power, and finance.

Primary Wave-2 rally – again (we beg to differ - again)
Many respected Elliott Wave authorities are once again pounding the table that the force and growing amplitude of the current rally is of no surprise at all; it is after all, just another Primary 2-wave rally of course.We recall these same authorities preaching a similar such rally was supposedly underway shortly after the 2002 bear market low. After the Dow surpassed its 1999-2000 highs by a wide margin however, the early 2000’s Primary wave-2 rally thesis quickly gave way to an expanded “B” wave at cycle degree interpretation. (See our chart illustration below)
Though we respect all credible sources of opinion and analysis, we must express respectful dissent in the primary wave-2 rally thesis for a second time. Here is why.

Firstly, if the Elliott Wave five-wave downward impulse structure is to maintain any semblance of classic symmetry and Fibonacci proportionality, the current primary degree bear market rally must carry well above the common .618 retracement level in advance of delivering its most punishing primary 3rd wave decline. Why so high, because despite its remote and constant plausibility, we do not subscribe to the belief that the end of days Armageddon event is directly at our doorstep. We shall explain...
Our chart below further illustrates why the Primary wave 2 rally must travel to such heights prior to the onset of an “end-of-days” Primary wave-3 decline.
Assuming the current rally comes to rest at a .786 retracement of the entire Primary wave-1 decline, we could expect primary 2 to crest at a Dow level north of 12,500, which translates to a 93% rally off the March 2009 lows. Should it happen, great job Barack, Barney, Tim, and Ben! Such a rally will reflect a hyper-reflationary QE success and be very reminiscent of previous bubble-policy stampede outcomes.

Next comes the first part of the problem with the proposed forthcoming Primary degree 3-wave assault that will supposedly follow. From a reflationary Primary-2-wave crest at a projected Dow level of 12,500, if Primary wave-3 were to express itself at a common 1.618 ratio of primary wave-1, the most severe and punishing Primary 3rd wave decline would have to crash the Dow to retest the double-digit 40-handle, which has not been seen since the 1932 depression era low.
Short of the ever constant probability of threats associated with mega natural disasters, terror attacks of varying sort, disastrous world wars, or pandemics of extreme magnitude, we remain highly suspect that any manmade economic schemes (flawed as they may be) could take the Dow down to such levels.

Edit Chart

The second part of the problem rests with Primary waves 4 and 5 amid the prospective 5-wave downward impulse at primary degree at this scope and dimension.
If we follow along and believe that once the current Primary wave-2 rally completes, that Primary wave-3 will proceed to crush the Dow back to the 40-level, we would naturally then expect another primary degree rally to mark a Primary 4th wave counter-trend advance.As the chart above illustrates, if the primary wave-4 rally retraces a modest proportional common ratio of .382% of wave-3, it will reach the 4,832 level. Such a rally translates to a near 12,000% gain from a prospective 1932 retest low of 40.13. Something along the lines of the arrival of the anti-Christ must occur to inspire a 12,000% false-dawn rally in the Dow of such magnitude.

Casting the plausibility of such amplitudes aside, let us assume the anti-Christ indeed arrives sometime after the Dow retests its 1932 double-digit lows. Shortly after the miracle of wave-4 crests its 12,000% gain, the world will collectively realize they have been led by the devil himself and thus usher in the final Primary 5th wave decline, which will exact the diabolical punishment of end times, at least for the Dow if not all of humankind itself.

To close this dissent, if a five-wave impulsive decline expresses itself with any semblance of Elliott and Fibonacci proportionality, then wave-5 down will have tendency toward equality with wave-1. Such a ratio would bring the Dow to a number below zero to the tune of (-2,896) points negative. Now that is what we would call the “end of days” for the Dow. Just don’t bet the ranch on it. The oval on the right encapsulates the precise analog path the Dow would take should it follow in the same footsteps of the Nikkei. If one is a firm believer in such things, the analog model suggests very tough times ahead for all global equity indices for a long time to come.





















In contrast to an “end-of-days” scenario, or a perennial bullish outlook, at least such an analog provides a credible president for what a worst case may bring, and what a realistic Primary and Cycle degree “A” wave decline may actually look like in real time.With that, we shall close with an update on last week’s charts and be on our way…