(Bloomberg) -- A five-month rally in Asian stocks may falter, dragging a regional index down as much as 14 percent, according to technical analysis by CLSA Asia Pacific Markets. The MSCI Asia excluding Japan Index climbed 1.8 percent to 432.02 yesterday, bringing the gauge’s premium to its 200-day moving average to 35 percent, according to Bloomberg data. The last time the index traded at such a premium was in June 1999.“You are looking at stretched valuations based on this divergence,” Laurence Balanco, a Hong Kong-based analyst with CLSA Asia Pacific Markets, said in a telephone interview. “The index may pull back toward the 370-390 range.”
The MSCI gauge has surged 78 percent from a three-month low on March 2 on speculation a recovering global economy will boost earnings. About 55 percent of companies on the index that reported quarterly earnings since early July have beaten analyst estimates, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.Information technology, consumer discretionary and financial stocks are “well-positioned” to outperform after this “correction,” he said. About 58 percent of the companies that beat quarterly earnings estimates are from these sectors, according to Bloomberg data.
Friday, August 14, 2009
Crude Oil Risks Pullback to $60 Next Week: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil needs to rise above $73 a barrel by next week or face a pullback toward $60, Schork Group Inc. said. Oil has been unable to rise above an eight-month high of $73.38 a barrel reached on June 30, even as it crossed $70 each trading day this month. If the buyers fail to break resistance, they risk losing control within days, according to Stephen Schork, president of the Villanova, Pennsylvania-based consultant.“The market certainly appears to be consolidating,” he said in an e-mail today. “The bulls are running into static. Everyone expects this market to hit $75, yet we can’t break resistance in the low $73s.”
Oil has gained in the past four weeks on speculation fuel demand will recover as the global economy is showing signs of emerging from a recession. Crude futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 28 cents to $70.80 a barrel at 12:27 p.m. in Singapore. Prices have increased 59 percent this year.The market currently remains in an ascending channel that can be traced back to July 13, when oil climbed from $58.32 a barrel, the lowest in eight weeks, Schork said. Oil will return to late-July levels if it can’t push past resistance, he said. Crude closed at $69.45 a barrel on July 31.“The time is now for the bulls,” Schork said. “Either they manage to stage a rally toward $75 within the next week or they risk a corrective retracement back toward the low $60s.”
Oil has gained in the past four weeks on speculation fuel demand will recover as the global economy is showing signs of emerging from a recession. Crude futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 28 cents to $70.80 a barrel at 12:27 p.m. in Singapore. Prices have increased 59 percent this year.The market currently remains in an ascending channel that can be traced back to July 13, when oil climbed from $58.32 a barrel, the lowest in eight weeks, Schork said. Oil will return to late-July levels if it can’t push past resistance, he said. Crude closed at $69.45 a barrel on July 31.“The time is now for the bulls,” Schork said. “Either they manage to stage a rally toward $75 within the next week or they risk a corrective retracement back toward the low $60s.”
Laporan Fundamental & Rumor Emiten 14-08-2009
Research Kim Eng: Hold PTBA target Rp 13,500.
Research JP MOrgan: Overweight ANTM target Rp 3,200.
Saham Barito Menuju Rp 2.000
HARGA saham PT Barito Pacific Tbk (BRPT) berpotensi menguat menuju level Rp 2.000 dalam waktu dekat. Sumber Investor Daily mengungkapkan, ekspansi anak usaha dengan membangun dua pabrik baru dan realisasi kepemilikan saham mayoritas di Star Energy akan menjadi momentum kenaikan harga BRPT.Selain itu, kata dia, proyeksi kinerja perseroan yang akan kinclong akhir tahun ini juga bakal berdampak positif. Pada perdagangan kemarin, BRPT ditutup menguat Rp 110 (7,97%) ke posisi Rp 1.490.
Akumulasi Saham Mitra Rajasa
HARGA saham PT Mitra Rajasa Tbk (MIRA) berpeluang menuju level Rp 900 dalam waktu dekat. Menurut sumber Investor Daily, kabar yang beredar di pasar menyebutkan bahwa perseroan ikut bergabung dalam konsorsium pembelian tambang batubara milik BHP di Maruwai, Kalteng.Selain itu, perseroan juga tengah due diligence atas dua kuasa pertambangan (KP). Pada perdagangan kemarin, MIRA ditutup naik Rp 10 (1,85%) ke level Rp 550.
Asing Mulai Menarik Dananya Keluar Dari Pasar Modal Indonesia
Investor asing mulai menarik dananya dari pasar modal Indonesia, baik saham maupun obligasi. Namun, jumlah dana yang keluar tidak terlalu besar. Berdasarkan data yang dirilis Direktorat Jenderal Pengelolaan Utang, Departemen Keuangan, sejak akhir pekan lalu kepemilikan asing di Surat Utang Negara (SUN) turun sedikit demi sedikit. Per 11 Agustus 2009, nilai kepemilikan asing di SUN mencapai Rp 90,77 triliun. Angka ini turun tipis 0,88% dibandingkan posisi akhir Juli 2009, sebesar Rp 91,58 triliun.
Sementara itu, Bloomberg mendata asing mencatat posisi jual bersih (nett sell) US$ 31,45 juta atau Rp 312,93 miliar selama dua hari berturut-turut pada pekan ini. Rinciannya, US$ 1,35 juta pada Selasa (11/8) dan US$ 30,1 juta pada Rabu (12/8).
Namun kemarin, asing juga sudah kembali masuk ke pasar saham Indonesia. Terbukti, asing mencatat beli bersih (nett buy) walaupun mungil, yakni US$ 8,1 juta. Merujuk data Kustodian Sentral Efek Indonesia (KSEI) per 12 Agustus 2009, kepemilikan asing di saham sudah mencapai Rp 714,19 triliun. Pada akhir Juli 2009, posisi asing masih Rp 696,64 triliun.
Bakrie dan Menkeu Berebut Saham Newmont
Tarik ulur pembelian saham PT Newmont Nusa Tenggara makin alot. Padahal, batas waktu pembelian saham itu adalah hari ini (14/8).
Ayo! Beli WIKA, SGRO, AALI, UNSP, BTEL & BUMI
Pergerakan IHSG berada di kisaran 2.305 - 2.430 dengan saham pilihan WIKA, SGRO, AALI, UNSP, BTEL dan BUMI. IHSG Pada perdagangan Jumat (14/8) secara teknikal diperkirakan akan melajutkan penguatan meskipun ada potensi profit taking.
CPO Naik, Beli Saham Sampoerna Agro
Target Harga Lippo Kawaraci Rp840
PT Lippo Karawaci Tbk (LPKR) mulai mengerem ekspansi, salah satunya dengan memangkas target pembangunan mal dari 40 mal menjadi 30 mal hingga 2010.
Red Dragon Tuntut Danamon dan New York Mellon US$ 4 Miliar
Empat pemegang saham PT Central Proteinaprima Tbk (CPRO) menyatakan tidak akan mencabut gugatannya terhadap PT Bank Danamon Tbk (BDMN) selaku agen pemegang saham dan Bank of New York Mellon sebagai trustee obligasi Red Dragon senilai US$ 200 juta. Pemegang saham CPRO menuntut ganti rugi sebesar US$ 4 miliar kepada kedua bank tersebut.
Pemegang Saham ADRO Jual Saham
Pemegang saham PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO) telah menjual sebanyak 850 ribu saham seharga Rp1.300 per saham.
BNBR Bantah Kepemilikan Saham di BUMI Berkurang
Induk perusahaan Grup Bakrie, PT Bakrie & Brothers Tbk (BNBR) membantah kepemilikan saham mereka di PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) berkurang.
Trada Menangi Tender FSO Rp 1,14 T
PT Trada Maritime Tbk (TRAM) memenangi tender penyediaan jasa fasilitas terapung penyimpanan migas (floating storage and offloading/FSO) senilai total US$ 114,8 juta atau sekitar Rp 1,14 triliun.
KUARTAL-IV, LATINUSA MASUK BURSA, Divestasi Berau Coal Lewat IPO
PT Armadian Tritunggal menyatakan bahwa pihaknya berencana menggelar penawaran umum perdana (initial public offering/IPO) saham induk usaha PT Berau Coal pada akhir 2009. Pernyataan itu disampaikan untuk menghapus keraguan mengenai IPO, seiring kabar penjualan saham Berau kepada investor strategis.
Akhir 2009, Bayan Realisasikan Akuisisi Tambang Baru
PT Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN) akan mengakuisisi satu kuasa pertambangan (KP) di Kalimantan akhir tahun ini. Nilai akuisisi tambang baru diperkirakan di bawah US$ 20 juta.
Morgan Stanley: Akhir Tahun, Rupiah Rp 11.000
Morgan Stanley percaya bahwa Rupiah telah melampaui nilainya dan momentum pembeliannya.
Bakrieland Incar Ruas Tol Rp 5,88 T
PT Bakrieland Development Tbk (ELTY) berniat mengikuti tender jalan tol ruas Sukabumi-Bandung sekitar Rp 5,39-5,88 triliun tahun depan.
Kimia Farma dan Indofarma Batal Merger
Rencana penggabungan (merger) perusahaan farmasi BUMN antara PT Kimia Farma Tbk (KAEF) dan PT Indofarma Tbk (INAF) kemungkinan besar batal, karena rencana itu belum masuk ke Komite Privatisasi Kementerian Negara BUMN.
BTEL: Pendapatan 1H09 Diprediksi Lampaui 10%
BTEL mengindikasikan pendapatan 1H09 naik lebih dari 10% yoy vs 1H08 Rp938 miliar. Perseroan optimis kinerjanya terus membaik pada tahun ini dan di 2H09 akan tumbuh lebih tinggi lagi.
PGAS: September, Mulai Pasok Gas ke PTLGU Cilegon
Tertanggal September09, PGAS akan mulai memasok gas sebanyak 30 bbtud ke PLTGU Cilegon,Banten. Sebelumnya, PLN telah membeli gas dari PGAS seharga US$5,61 per mmbtu.
IPO: Armadian Tritunggal Berencana IPO Akhir 2009
PT Armadian Tritunggal, induk usaha Berau Coal menyatakan akan IPO pada akhir tahun ini guna menghimpun dana untuk ekspansi produksi batubara. Armadian telah menunjuk PT Bahan Securities sebagai underwriter. Disinyalir Armadian melepas 20% saham dengan target dana Rp2-3 triliun.
Bunga Valas Menurun, Dana Pindah ke Rupiah
Dana masyarakat dalam bentuk valuta asing di perbankan makin tipis. Menurut data SPI per Juni 2009 nilai nominal simpanan valas Rp 291,35 triilun.
Tren Kredit Seret Mulai Muncul
Para penerbit kartu kredit harus lebih waspada menjajakan produknya. Tren kenaikan kredit bermasalah atawa non-performing loan (NPL) kartu kredit muncul selama empat bulan terakhir.Mengutip Statistik Perbankan Indonesia, nilai NPL kartu kredit per akhir Juni 2009 mencapai Rp 2,73 triliun. Artinya, telah terjadi kenaikan sebesar 10,43% hanya dalam tiga bulan, mengingat nominal NPL per akhir Maret 2009 sebesar Rp 2,47 triliun.
Laba Indofarma Turun 19,38%
Perolehan laba bersih PT Indorama Synthetics Tbk (INDR) hingga semester I 2009 turun 19,38 persen menjadi 1,29 juta dolar AS dibandingkan periode yang sama sebelumnya mencapai 1,60 juta dolar.
Sumber: Inilah.com, Kontan.co.id, Detik.com, Bloomberg, Reuters.
www.strategydesk.co.id
www.harumdanaberjangka.co.id
Research JP MOrgan: Overweight ANTM target Rp 3,200.
Saham Barito Menuju Rp 2.000
HARGA saham PT Barito Pacific Tbk (BRPT) berpotensi menguat menuju level Rp 2.000 dalam waktu dekat. Sumber Investor Daily mengungkapkan, ekspansi anak usaha dengan membangun dua pabrik baru dan realisasi kepemilikan saham mayoritas di Star Energy akan menjadi momentum kenaikan harga BRPT.Selain itu, kata dia, proyeksi kinerja perseroan yang akan kinclong akhir tahun ini juga bakal berdampak positif. Pada perdagangan kemarin, BRPT ditutup menguat Rp 110 (7,97%) ke posisi Rp 1.490.
Akumulasi Saham Mitra Rajasa
HARGA saham PT Mitra Rajasa Tbk (MIRA) berpeluang menuju level Rp 900 dalam waktu dekat. Menurut sumber Investor Daily, kabar yang beredar di pasar menyebutkan bahwa perseroan ikut bergabung dalam konsorsium pembelian tambang batubara milik BHP di Maruwai, Kalteng.Selain itu, perseroan juga tengah due diligence atas dua kuasa pertambangan (KP). Pada perdagangan kemarin, MIRA ditutup naik Rp 10 (1,85%) ke level Rp 550.
Asing Mulai Menarik Dananya Keluar Dari Pasar Modal Indonesia
Investor asing mulai menarik dananya dari pasar modal Indonesia, baik saham maupun obligasi. Namun, jumlah dana yang keluar tidak terlalu besar. Berdasarkan data yang dirilis Direktorat Jenderal Pengelolaan Utang, Departemen Keuangan, sejak akhir pekan lalu kepemilikan asing di Surat Utang Negara (SUN) turun sedikit demi sedikit. Per 11 Agustus 2009, nilai kepemilikan asing di SUN mencapai Rp 90,77 triliun. Angka ini turun tipis 0,88% dibandingkan posisi akhir Juli 2009, sebesar Rp 91,58 triliun.
Sementara itu, Bloomberg mendata asing mencatat posisi jual bersih (nett sell) US$ 31,45 juta atau Rp 312,93 miliar selama dua hari berturut-turut pada pekan ini. Rinciannya, US$ 1,35 juta pada Selasa (11/8) dan US$ 30,1 juta pada Rabu (12/8).
Namun kemarin, asing juga sudah kembali masuk ke pasar saham Indonesia. Terbukti, asing mencatat beli bersih (nett buy) walaupun mungil, yakni US$ 8,1 juta. Merujuk data Kustodian Sentral Efek Indonesia (KSEI) per 12 Agustus 2009, kepemilikan asing di saham sudah mencapai Rp 714,19 triliun. Pada akhir Juli 2009, posisi asing masih Rp 696,64 triliun.
Bakrie dan Menkeu Berebut Saham Newmont
Tarik ulur pembelian saham PT Newmont Nusa Tenggara makin alot. Padahal, batas waktu pembelian saham itu adalah hari ini (14/8).
Ayo! Beli WIKA, SGRO, AALI, UNSP, BTEL & BUMI
Pergerakan IHSG berada di kisaran 2.305 - 2.430 dengan saham pilihan WIKA, SGRO, AALI, UNSP, BTEL dan BUMI. IHSG Pada perdagangan Jumat (14/8) secara teknikal diperkirakan akan melajutkan penguatan meskipun ada potensi profit taking.
CPO Naik, Beli Saham Sampoerna Agro
Target Harga Lippo Kawaraci Rp840
PT Lippo Karawaci Tbk (LPKR) mulai mengerem ekspansi, salah satunya dengan memangkas target pembangunan mal dari 40 mal menjadi 30 mal hingga 2010.
Red Dragon Tuntut Danamon dan New York Mellon US$ 4 Miliar
Empat pemegang saham PT Central Proteinaprima Tbk (CPRO) menyatakan tidak akan mencabut gugatannya terhadap PT Bank Danamon Tbk (BDMN) selaku agen pemegang saham dan Bank of New York Mellon sebagai trustee obligasi Red Dragon senilai US$ 200 juta. Pemegang saham CPRO menuntut ganti rugi sebesar US$ 4 miliar kepada kedua bank tersebut.
Pemegang Saham ADRO Jual Saham
Pemegang saham PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO) telah menjual sebanyak 850 ribu saham seharga Rp1.300 per saham.
BNBR Bantah Kepemilikan Saham di BUMI Berkurang
Induk perusahaan Grup Bakrie, PT Bakrie & Brothers Tbk (BNBR) membantah kepemilikan saham mereka di PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) berkurang.
Trada Menangi Tender FSO Rp 1,14 T
PT Trada Maritime Tbk (TRAM) memenangi tender penyediaan jasa fasilitas terapung penyimpanan migas (floating storage and offloading/FSO) senilai total US$ 114,8 juta atau sekitar Rp 1,14 triliun.
KUARTAL-IV, LATINUSA MASUK BURSA, Divestasi Berau Coal Lewat IPO
PT Armadian Tritunggal menyatakan bahwa pihaknya berencana menggelar penawaran umum perdana (initial public offering/IPO) saham induk usaha PT Berau Coal pada akhir 2009. Pernyataan itu disampaikan untuk menghapus keraguan mengenai IPO, seiring kabar penjualan saham Berau kepada investor strategis.
Akhir 2009, Bayan Realisasikan Akuisisi Tambang Baru
PT Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN) akan mengakuisisi satu kuasa pertambangan (KP) di Kalimantan akhir tahun ini. Nilai akuisisi tambang baru diperkirakan di bawah US$ 20 juta.
Morgan Stanley: Akhir Tahun, Rupiah Rp 11.000
Morgan Stanley percaya bahwa Rupiah telah melampaui nilainya dan momentum pembeliannya.
Bakrieland Incar Ruas Tol Rp 5,88 T
PT Bakrieland Development Tbk (ELTY) berniat mengikuti tender jalan tol ruas Sukabumi-Bandung sekitar Rp 5,39-5,88 triliun tahun depan.
Kimia Farma dan Indofarma Batal Merger
Rencana penggabungan (merger) perusahaan farmasi BUMN antara PT Kimia Farma Tbk (KAEF) dan PT Indofarma Tbk (INAF) kemungkinan besar batal, karena rencana itu belum masuk ke Komite Privatisasi Kementerian Negara BUMN.
BTEL: Pendapatan 1H09 Diprediksi Lampaui 10%
BTEL mengindikasikan pendapatan 1H09 naik lebih dari 10% yoy vs 1H08 Rp938 miliar. Perseroan optimis kinerjanya terus membaik pada tahun ini dan di 2H09 akan tumbuh lebih tinggi lagi.
PGAS: September, Mulai Pasok Gas ke PTLGU Cilegon
Tertanggal September09, PGAS akan mulai memasok gas sebanyak 30 bbtud ke PLTGU Cilegon,Banten. Sebelumnya, PLN telah membeli gas dari PGAS seharga US$5,61 per mmbtu.
IPO: Armadian Tritunggal Berencana IPO Akhir 2009
PT Armadian Tritunggal, induk usaha Berau Coal menyatakan akan IPO pada akhir tahun ini guna menghimpun dana untuk ekspansi produksi batubara. Armadian telah menunjuk PT Bahan Securities sebagai underwriter. Disinyalir Armadian melepas 20% saham dengan target dana Rp2-3 triliun.
Bunga Valas Menurun, Dana Pindah ke Rupiah
Dana masyarakat dalam bentuk valuta asing di perbankan makin tipis. Menurut data SPI per Juni 2009 nilai nominal simpanan valas Rp 291,35 triilun.
Tren Kredit Seret Mulai Muncul
Para penerbit kartu kredit harus lebih waspada menjajakan produknya. Tren kenaikan kredit bermasalah atawa non-performing loan (NPL) kartu kredit muncul selama empat bulan terakhir.Mengutip Statistik Perbankan Indonesia, nilai NPL kartu kredit per akhir Juni 2009 mencapai Rp 2,73 triliun. Artinya, telah terjadi kenaikan sebesar 10,43% hanya dalam tiga bulan, mengingat nominal NPL per akhir Maret 2009 sebesar Rp 2,47 triliun.
Laba Indofarma Turun 19,38%
Perolehan laba bersih PT Indorama Synthetics Tbk (INDR) hingga semester I 2009 turun 19,38 persen menjadi 1,29 juta dolar AS dibandingkan periode yang sama sebelumnya mencapai 1,60 juta dolar.
Sumber: Inilah.com, Kontan.co.id, Detik.com, Bloomberg, Reuters.
www.strategydesk.co.id
www.harumdanaberjangka.co.id
IHSG: Antisipasi Long Weekend Dapat Dimanfaatkan Profit-Taker
Market Review
Serangkaian sentimen positif dari dalam dan luar negeri, berperan melejitkan IHSG untuk ditutup mendekati level 2,400 kemarin, setelah hasil Mahkamah Konstitusi menolak sengketa pilpres, sejumlah isu positif dari emiten dari grup Bakrie dan Bimantara, kenaikan harga komoditi yang mengangkat harga saham komoditi pertambangan dan perkebunan, memutarbalikkan penurunan yang terjadi pada hari Rabu (12/08). Respon yang positif dari hasil keputusan suku bunga the Fed (12/08) yang tetap menahan laju suku bunga 0.25% dan kenaikan indeks saham regional Asia dan Eropa, ikut memberikan support kepada IHSG. IHSG melonjak 49,13 poin (+2.09%) ditutup di 2,396.49, dengan nilai transaksi Rp 8.124 triliun. Investor asing mencatat net buy Rp 80.482 miliar, dibandingkan net selling Rp 300,79 miliar hari Selasa (12/08).
Indeks saham MSCI Asia-Pacific meningkat kemarin, mengalami kenaikan terbesar di bulan ini, setelah the Fed mengatakan resesi mereda dan berjanji akan mempertahankan suku bunga yang rendah. Indeks MSCI telah menguat 60% dari level terendah 5 tahun pada 9 Maret, dengan nilai PER rata-rata 24.5x, dibandingkan MSCI World Index sebesar 17x. Indeks Sensex India melejit berkat isu reformasi pajak.
IHSG Outlook
Ind P/E (x)
EPS
Y/Y Y/Y Suku Bunga* Inflasi*
Y/Y GDP*
Y/Y
IHSG 16.2 8% +16% 6.50% 2.7% 4.0%
STI 22.0 16% -7.8% 0.69% -0.70% -6.5%
KLCI 14.9 10% +2.5% 2.0% 3.00% -6.2%
SET 13.5 4% -10.0% 1.25% -3.30% -7.10%
SSE 38.5 36% +10% 5.31% -1.40% 7.9%
N225 47.8 -1% -21.2% 0.10% -0.10% -9.7%
HSI 27.5 19% -6.5% 0.50% 0.60% -7.80%
DJIA 18.5 3% -13.2% 0.25% -1.4% -3.6%
* Negara Bersangkutan
Seperti diperkirakan sebelumnya, trend bullish jangka pendek dan jangka menengah IHSG masih terjaga dengan baik, meskipun adanya sedikit gejolak di tengah mahalnya valuasi saham domestik dan kondisi teknikal yang overbought. Maraknya sentimen positif dari dalam negeri, seperti positifnya hasil Mahkamah Konstitusi mengenai sengketa pilpres (12/08), isu positif dari penjualan 14 saham PT Newmont (ANTM), rapimnas Golkar yang berakhir kemarin menunjukkan kuatnya posisi Aburizal Bakrie sebagai calon Ketua Umum Golkar (Grup Bakrie), fund manager asing masih melirik pasar modal domestik karena solidnya pertumbuhan ekonomi, investor asing masih catat net buying di pekan ini, perkiraan lapkeu kuartal 3 2009 emiten domestik akan lebih baik dari periode sebelumnya, kenaikan harga komoditi (minyak, cpo, nikel, timah, emas) yang menguntungkan saham komoditi dan energi, masih tingginya tingkat daya beli konsumen dan suku bunga yang rendah, seharusnya masih memberikan
momentum kenaikan kepada IHSG.
Meski laju kenaikan IHSG diatas level 2,400 akan menimbulkan kewaspadaan diantara investor lokal dan asing, karena kian mahalnya valuasi saham dan kondisi teknikal yang overbought, diikuti trend kenaikan harga komoditi dan masih rapuhnya sektor perumahan global yang dapat menganggu proses pemulihan ekonomi global ekonomi global, dapat picu aksi profit-taking dalam waktu dekat.
Stock Picks: Average last 7 week +54.39%. Target 10-20%, Risk < -10%
Hold Buy: BUMI/ELTY/ENRG/BNBR/DEWA/BTEL, HEXA, INKP, PTBA, KLBF, INCO, TINS, UNSP, SGRO, ADRO, BMRI, KIJA, PGAS, AKRA, ANTM, TRUB, FREN
Stock Picks:
• ANTM : Hold target Rp 3,400
• ISAT : Buy target Rp 6,200
Global Outlook
Isu proses pemulihan ekonomi global dapat memberikan support kepada indeks saham regional Asia dan Wall Street pada hari ini, setelah the Fed akan tetap mempertahankan suku bunga di level yang rendah di tahun ini, melihat ekonomi kemungkinan telah mencapai bottom di tahun ini, kekhawatiran resesi di Eropa mereda setelah data pertumbuhan ekonomi Jerman dan Prancis secara mengejutkan tercatat di atas perkiraan pasar dan masing-masing 0.3% Q/Q di Q 2009, Jobless Claims Continuation AS pekan lalu anjlok ke level terendah sejak April meski jobless claims meningkat 4K menjadi 558,000, diikuti isu positif dari India mengenai reformasi pajak pemerintah, lebih baik dari perkiraan earning Wal Mart AS dan laporan hedge fund investor John Paulson membeli saham perbankan AS( Bank of America, Regions Financial Corp, Goldman Sachs). Meski potensi kenaikan terbatas berkat sentimen negatif dari laporan penjualan ritel di AS merosot 0.1% di bulan Juli, business inventory AS anjlok 1.1% dan analis menyarankan investor untuk menjauhi saham pembangun perumahan AS serta mahalnya valuasi saham AS (PER 18.6x).
Technical Analysis:
IHSG mendapatkan signal positif dari penutupan di atas 2,384 (middle line channel) dan pola candle bullish harami, yang seharusnya masih mendukung potensi kenaikan meski terbatas karena adanya sejumlah resistance yang akan menghadang, seperti 2,425 (76.4% FR 2,838-1089 & Projection 61.8%)/2,437 (trendline)/2,499 (projection 100.0%)/2,517 (upper channel). Jika bulan ini ditutup diatas 2,425, UBI akan upgrade target 3 bulan menjadi 2,775 (upper channel)/2838 (high all time), selama ditutup mingguan diatas 2,174. ndikator ADX terkoreksi, stochastic dan MACD bullish dibayangi overbought, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas. Hitungan Elliot Wave, IHSG masih berada dalam wave minuette iii dalam minor V (perkiraan peak di 2,425???) - extended motive wave 3) dalam siklus wave intermediate (4)/B.
Resistance: 2445.36/2433.14/2420.92/2402.69. PP 2384.45
Support : 2372.23/2360.02/2341.78/2323.54
www.strategydesk.co.id
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Serangkaian sentimen positif dari dalam dan luar negeri, berperan melejitkan IHSG untuk ditutup mendekati level 2,400 kemarin, setelah hasil Mahkamah Konstitusi menolak sengketa pilpres, sejumlah isu positif dari emiten dari grup Bakrie dan Bimantara, kenaikan harga komoditi yang mengangkat harga saham komoditi pertambangan dan perkebunan, memutarbalikkan penurunan yang terjadi pada hari Rabu (12/08). Respon yang positif dari hasil keputusan suku bunga the Fed (12/08) yang tetap menahan laju suku bunga 0.25% dan kenaikan indeks saham regional Asia dan Eropa, ikut memberikan support kepada IHSG. IHSG melonjak 49,13 poin (+2.09%) ditutup di 2,396.49, dengan nilai transaksi Rp 8.124 triliun. Investor asing mencatat net buy Rp 80.482 miliar, dibandingkan net selling Rp 300,79 miliar hari Selasa (12/08).
Indeks saham MSCI Asia-Pacific meningkat kemarin, mengalami kenaikan terbesar di bulan ini, setelah the Fed mengatakan resesi mereda dan berjanji akan mempertahankan suku bunga yang rendah. Indeks MSCI telah menguat 60% dari level terendah 5 tahun pada 9 Maret, dengan nilai PER rata-rata 24.5x, dibandingkan MSCI World Index sebesar 17x. Indeks Sensex India melejit berkat isu reformasi pajak.
IHSG Outlook
Ind P/E (x)
EPS
Y/Y Y/Y Suku Bunga* Inflasi*
Y/Y GDP*
Y/Y
IHSG 16.2 8% +16% 6.50% 2.7% 4.0%
STI 22.0 16% -7.8% 0.69% -0.70% -6.5%
KLCI 14.9 10% +2.5% 2.0% 3.00% -6.2%
SET 13.5 4% -10.0% 1.25% -3.30% -7.10%
SSE 38.5 36% +10% 5.31% -1.40% 7.9%
N225 47.8 -1% -21.2% 0.10% -0.10% -9.7%
HSI 27.5 19% -6.5% 0.50% 0.60% -7.80%
DJIA 18.5 3% -13.2% 0.25% -1.4% -3.6%
* Negara Bersangkutan
Seperti diperkirakan sebelumnya, trend bullish jangka pendek dan jangka menengah IHSG masih terjaga dengan baik, meskipun adanya sedikit gejolak di tengah mahalnya valuasi saham domestik dan kondisi teknikal yang overbought. Maraknya sentimen positif dari dalam negeri, seperti positifnya hasil Mahkamah Konstitusi mengenai sengketa pilpres (12/08), isu positif dari penjualan 14 saham PT Newmont (ANTM), rapimnas Golkar yang berakhir kemarin menunjukkan kuatnya posisi Aburizal Bakrie sebagai calon Ketua Umum Golkar (Grup Bakrie), fund manager asing masih melirik pasar modal domestik karena solidnya pertumbuhan ekonomi, investor asing masih catat net buying di pekan ini, perkiraan lapkeu kuartal 3 2009 emiten domestik akan lebih baik dari periode sebelumnya, kenaikan harga komoditi (minyak, cpo, nikel, timah, emas) yang menguntungkan saham komoditi dan energi, masih tingginya tingkat daya beli konsumen dan suku bunga yang rendah, seharusnya masih memberikan
momentum kenaikan kepada IHSG.
Meski laju kenaikan IHSG diatas level 2,400 akan menimbulkan kewaspadaan diantara investor lokal dan asing, karena kian mahalnya valuasi saham dan kondisi teknikal yang overbought, diikuti trend kenaikan harga komoditi dan masih rapuhnya sektor perumahan global yang dapat menganggu proses pemulihan ekonomi global ekonomi global, dapat picu aksi profit-taking dalam waktu dekat.
Stock Picks: Average last 7 week +54.39%. Target 10-20%, Risk < -10%
Hold Buy: BUMI/ELTY/ENRG/BNBR/DEWA/BTEL, HEXA, INKP, PTBA, KLBF, INCO, TINS, UNSP, SGRO, ADRO, BMRI, KIJA, PGAS, AKRA, ANTM, TRUB, FREN
Stock Picks:
• ANTM : Hold target Rp 3,400
• ISAT : Buy target Rp 6,200
Global Outlook
Isu proses pemulihan ekonomi global dapat memberikan support kepada indeks saham regional Asia dan Wall Street pada hari ini, setelah the Fed akan tetap mempertahankan suku bunga di level yang rendah di tahun ini, melihat ekonomi kemungkinan telah mencapai bottom di tahun ini, kekhawatiran resesi di Eropa mereda setelah data pertumbuhan ekonomi Jerman dan Prancis secara mengejutkan tercatat di atas perkiraan pasar dan masing-masing 0.3% Q/Q di Q 2009, Jobless Claims Continuation AS pekan lalu anjlok ke level terendah sejak April meski jobless claims meningkat 4K menjadi 558,000, diikuti isu positif dari India mengenai reformasi pajak pemerintah, lebih baik dari perkiraan earning Wal Mart AS dan laporan hedge fund investor John Paulson membeli saham perbankan AS( Bank of America, Regions Financial Corp, Goldman Sachs). Meski potensi kenaikan terbatas berkat sentimen negatif dari laporan penjualan ritel di AS merosot 0.1% di bulan Juli, business inventory AS anjlok 1.1% dan analis menyarankan investor untuk menjauhi saham pembangun perumahan AS serta mahalnya valuasi saham AS (PER 18.6x).
Technical Analysis:
IHSG mendapatkan signal positif dari penutupan di atas 2,384 (middle line channel) dan pola candle bullish harami, yang seharusnya masih mendukung potensi kenaikan meski terbatas karena adanya sejumlah resistance yang akan menghadang, seperti 2,425 (76.4% FR 2,838-1089 & Projection 61.8%)/2,437 (trendline)/2,499 (projection 100.0%)/2,517 (upper channel). Jika bulan ini ditutup diatas 2,425, UBI akan upgrade target 3 bulan menjadi 2,775 (upper channel)/2838 (high all time), selama ditutup mingguan diatas 2,174. ndikator ADX terkoreksi, stochastic dan MACD bullish dibayangi overbought, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas. Hitungan Elliot Wave, IHSG masih berada dalam wave minuette iii dalam minor V (perkiraan peak di 2,425???) - extended motive wave 3) dalam siklus wave intermediate (4)/B.
Resistance: 2445.36/2433.14/2420.92/2402.69. PP 2384.45
Support : 2372.23/2360.02/2341.78/2323.54
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Risk Appetite Masih Menguntungkan Euro & Pound
EUR-USD
Euro mendapatkan signal bullish reversal dari daily chart selama bertahan diatas channel support 1.4149 dalam sebuah uptrend channel yang seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan. Indikator ADX flat, stochastic flat dan MACD bullish, seharusnya masih dukung potensi technical rebound. Support berada di 1.4145/1.4010, Resistance berada di 1.4390/1.4445. Euro dalam proses koreksi b) dalam wave koreksi 4, untuk target 1.4390, selama tidak ditutup diatas 1.4140. Buy 1.4150 target 1.4350, buy 1.4070 target 1.4220 stop 60p, Hold buy 1.4230 target 1.4350 stop 1.4230. sell 1.4350 & 1.4450 target 1.4100 buy break 1.4455 trgt 1.4730. sell break 1.4000 target 1.3750.
USD-JPY
Laju kenaikan USDJPY bertahan selama berada diatas channel support di 95.32 di daily chart dan kondisi candle yang sebelumnya menunjukkan indikasi reversal. Penutupan dibawah middle line channel di 96.56 akan mengarahkan USDJPY ke target low kemarin di 95.05. Indikator ADX flat, stochastic dead cross, MACD bearish, seharusnya mendukung peluang kenaikan selama diatas support 95.32. Resistance berada di 96.50/97.60, support di 95.00/94.40. Sell 96.80 target 98.50 stop 100p. sell 98.00 target 96.00 stop 60p. Hold buy 95.70 & Buy 95.30 stop 70p target 96.50. Sell 98.00 target 97.00, buy 94.40 target 96.50.
GBP-USD
(+200p)GBP masih berada dalam pola broadening bullish dan uptrend channel, diikuti indikator ADX flat, stochastic dead cross dan MACD masih berada di teritorial bullish, mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas selama ditutup diatas channel support 1.6490. Buy 1.6290 target 1.6700 stop 1.6400. sell 1.6700 target 1.6500 stop 60p, hold buy 1.6540 target 1.6700. Sell 1.6800 target 1.6450 stop 60p. Buy 1.6450 target 1.6700 stop 100p. Sell 1.7050 target 1.6750. sell break 1.6250 target 1.6020.
AUD-USD
(150p) AUD masih berada dalam uptrend channel dan trend bullish jangka menengah, diikuti pola bullish reversal, sementara indikator ADX terkoreksi, stochastic flat, MACD masih bullish, mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas target 0.8450, selama di bawah 0.8130. Resistance di 0.8450/0.8500, support di 0.8180/0.8100. Buy 0.8300 target 0.8450, hold sell 0.8450 target 0.8300 & sell 0.8550 stop 0.8620. sell break 0.8000 target 0.7900. Buy 0.8180 target 0.8300.
Euro mendapatkan signal bullish reversal dari daily chart selama bertahan diatas channel support 1.4149 dalam sebuah uptrend channel yang seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan. Indikator ADX flat, stochastic flat dan MACD bullish, seharusnya masih dukung potensi technical rebound. Support berada di 1.4145/1.4010, Resistance berada di 1.4390/1.4445. Euro dalam proses koreksi b) dalam wave koreksi 4, untuk target 1.4390, selama tidak ditutup diatas 1.4140. Buy 1.4150 target 1.4350, buy 1.4070 target 1.4220 stop 60p, Hold buy 1.4230 target 1.4350 stop 1.4230. sell 1.4350 & 1.4450 target 1.4100 buy break 1.4455 trgt 1.4730. sell break 1.4000 target 1.3750.
USD-JPY
Laju kenaikan USDJPY bertahan selama berada diatas channel support di 95.32 di daily chart dan kondisi candle yang sebelumnya menunjukkan indikasi reversal. Penutupan dibawah middle line channel di 96.56 akan mengarahkan USDJPY ke target low kemarin di 95.05. Indikator ADX flat, stochastic dead cross, MACD bearish, seharusnya mendukung peluang kenaikan selama diatas support 95.32. Resistance berada di 96.50/97.60, support di 95.00/94.40. Sell 96.80 target 98.50 stop 100p. sell 98.00 target 96.00 stop 60p. Hold buy 95.70 & Buy 95.30 stop 70p target 96.50. Sell 98.00 target 97.00, buy 94.40 target 96.50.
GBP-USD
(+200p)GBP masih berada dalam pola broadening bullish dan uptrend channel, diikuti indikator ADX flat, stochastic dead cross dan MACD masih berada di teritorial bullish, mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas selama ditutup diatas channel support 1.6490. Buy 1.6290 target 1.6700 stop 1.6400. sell 1.6700 target 1.6500 stop 60p, hold buy 1.6540 target 1.6700. Sell 1.6800 target 1.6450 stop 60p. Buy 1.6450 target 1.6700 stop 100p. Sell 1.7050 target 1.6750. sell break 1.6250 target 1.6020.
AUD-USD
(150p) AUD masih berada dalam uptrend channel dan trend bullish jangka menengah, diikuti pola bullish reversal, sementara indikator ADX terkoreksi, stochastic flat, MACD masih bullish, mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas target 0.8450, selama di bawah 0.8130. Resistance di 0.8450/0.8500, support di 0.8180/0.8100. Buy 0.8300 target 0.8450, hold sell 0.8450 target 0.8300 & sell 0.8550 stop 0.8620. sell break 0.8000 target 0.7900. Buy 0.8180 target 0.8300.
Trend Bullish Continuation Indeks Asia Masih Berlanjut
Nikkei Futures Kontrak September (SSIU9)
Indeks Nikkei kembali mendekati level tertinggi dalam 10 bulan terakhir, setelah keputusan The Fed yang mempertahankan rate di kisaran 0%. The Fed mengatakan bahwa aktivitas ekonomi membaik dan resesi sedang menuju akhir, berdasarkan indikator yang terlihat mencatat kenaikan. Indeks Nikkei .N225 ditutup naik 82,19 poin, atau 0,79%, ke posisi 10.517,19, hampir dekati level 10.587,36, tertinggi dalam 10 bulan terakhir.
Di chart daily, indeks mendapatkan signal positif dari candle high wave dalam uptrend channel, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi kenaikan lebih lanjut. Indikator masih mendukung potensi kenaikan ADX flat, stochastic crossing down dan MACD bullish, seharusnya mendukung potensi technical rebound. Resistance di 10663 (resistance channel)/10870). Support 10352 (channel support) /10452 (10-day MA) Perkiraan range hari ini 10450-10650. Rekomendasi Sell 10650 target 10350 stp 100p. Buy 10340 target 10650 stop 100p, Buy 10110 target 10650 stop 100p, hold buy 10500 target 10650, sell 10800 target 10500. Chart SSIU9 Daily
Kospi Futures Kontrak September (KSU9)
Indeks Kospi ditutup melemah dalam perdagangan Kamis ini, setelah indeks sempat menguat berkat rally bursa Wall Street kemarin. Optimisme pemulihan ekonomi AS menyelimuti investor setelah pertemuan dua hari Federal Reserve memutuskan mempertahankan suku bunga pada 0-0.25%. Indeks Kospi .KS11 ditutup turun 0,71 poin, atau 0,05%, ke posisi 1.564,64 poin.
Dalam chart daily, indeks masih berada dalam uptrend channel dan ascending triangle, meski menunjukkan signal positif dari candle doji. Sementara kondisi stochastic crossing down, MACD bullish dan ADX terkoreksi, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas. Resistance di 206.50/209.30 (middle line channel). Support di 202.40/200.50. Rekomendasi Buy 201.00 target 205.00 stop 100p, buy 202.40 target 205.50, Sell 206.50 target 197.50 stop 30p. Buy break 206.70 target 209.50 stop 100p. Sell break 200.00 target 195.00 stop 100p. (-100p) Chart KSU9 Daily
Hang Seng Futures Kontrak Agustus (HSIQ9)
Indeks Hang Seng berhasil ditutup menguat 2,08% kemarin, dimana indeks berhasil rebound dari kejatuhan perdagangan sebelumnya yang mencapai 3%. Penguatan indeks Hang Seng kali ini, ditopang pernyataan the Fed yang memberikan penilaian optimis terhadap ekonomi AS, pasca keputusannya mempertahankan suku bunganya di kisaran 0%. Selain itu, baiknya hasil kinerja keuangan perusahaan turut mendorong sentimen. Indeks Hang Seng .HSI ditutup menguat 426,06%, atau 2,08%, ke posisi 20.861,30.
Dalam chart daily, indeks kembali menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola candle shooting star dan pola head & shoulder, dapat membatasi potensi kenaikan. Potensi penurunan dapat terjadi jika neckline J&S di 20431 target 19220. Stochastic dan MACD terkoreksi, ADX menurun, mendukung potensi technical rebound terbatas. Resistance di 20,995/21.158 (trendline)/21361. Support 20650 (low)/20431 (neckline). Hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan koreksi c dalam proses wave 4) dalam subwave motive 4 / cycle B. Rekomendasi : Sell break 20250 target 19800stop 100 p. Buy 20430 target 20750 stop 100p. Buy 20,000 target 20650. Sell 21150 & 21350 target 20600. Hold Buy 20750 & break 21180 target 21350 or closing stop 100p, (+400p) Chart HSIN9 Daily
Indeks Nikkei kembali mendekati level tertinggi dalam 10 bulan terakhir, setelah keputusan The Fed yang mempertahankan rate di kisaran 0%. The Fed mengatakan bahwa aktivitas ekonomi membaik dan resesi sedang menuju akhir, berdasarkan indikator yang terlihat mencatat kenaikan. Indeks Nikkei .N225 ditutup naik 82,19 poin, atau 0,79%, ke posisi 10.517,19, hampir dekati level 10.587,36, tertinggi dalam 10 bulan terakhir.
Di chart daily, indeks mendapatkan signal positif dari candle high wave dalam uptrend channel, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi kenaikan lebih lanjut. Indikator masih mendukung potensi kenaikan ADX flat, stochastic crossing down dan MACD bullish, seharusnya mendukung potensi technical rebound. Resistance di 10663 (resistance channel)/10870). Support 10352 (channel support) /10452 (10-day MA) Perkiraan range hari ini 10450-10650. Rekomendasi Sell 10650 target 10350 stp 100p. Buy 10340 target 10650 stop 100p, Buy 10110 target 10650 stop 100p, hold buy 10500 target 10650, sell 10800 target 10500. Chart SSIU9 Daily
Kospi Futures Kontrak September (KSU9)
Indeks Kospi ditutup melemah dalam perdagangan Kamis ini, setelah indeks sempat menguat berkat rally bursa Wall Street kemarin. Optimisme pemulihan ekonomi AS menyelimuti investor setelah pertemuan dua hari Federal Reserve memutuskan mempertahankan suku bunga pada 0-0.25%. Indeks Kospi .KS11 ditutup turun 0,71 poin, atau 0,05%, ke posisi 1.564,64 poin.
Dalam chart daily, indeks masih berada dalam uptrend channel dan ascending triangle, meski menunjukkan signal positif dari candle doji. Sementara kondisi stochastic crossing down, MACD bullish dan ADX terkoreksi, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas. Resistance di 206.50/209.30 (middle line channel). Support di 202.40/200.50. Rekomendasi Buy 201.00 target 205.00 stop 100p, buy 202.40 target 205.50, Sell 206.50 target 197.50 stop 30p. Buy break 206.70 target 209.50 stop 100p. Sell break 200.00 target 195.00 stop 100p. (-100p) Chart KSU9 Daily
Hang Seng Futures Kontrak Agustus (HSIQ9)
Indeks Hang Seng berhasil ditutup menguat 2,08% kemarin, dimana indeks berhasil rebound dari kejatuhan perdagangan sebelumnya yang mencapai 3%. Penguatan indeks Hang Seng kali ini, ditopang pernyataan the Fed yang memberikan penilaian optimis terhadap ekonomi AS, pasca keputusannya mempertahankan suku bunganya di kisaran 0%. Selain itu, baiknya hasil kinerja keuangan perusahaan turut mendorong sentimen. Indeks Hang Seng .HSI ditutup menguat 426,06%, atau 2,08%, ke posisi 20.861,30.
Dalam chart daily, indeks kembali menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola candle shooting star dan pola head & shoulder, dapat membatasi potensi kenaikan. Potensi penurunan dapat terjadi jika neckline J&S di 20431 target 19220. Stochastic dan MACD terkoreksi, ADX menurun, mendukung potensi technical rebound terbatas. Resistance di 20,995/21.158 (trendline)/21361. Support 20650 (low)/20431 (neckline). Hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan koreksi c dalam proses wave 4) dalam subwave motive 4 / cycle B. Rekomendasi : Sell break 20250 target 19800stop 100 p. Buy 20430 target 20750 stop 100p. Buy 20,000 target 20650. Sell 21150 & 21350 target 20600. Hold Buy 20750 & break 21180 target 21350 or closing stop 100p, (+400p) Chart HSIN9 Daily
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Oil May Fall Below $10 in Next Decade, Prechter Says (Update1)
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may plunge to less than $10 a barrel in the next decade after surging to a record $147 last year, said Robert Prechter, who achieved fame for cautioning on Oct. 5, 1987, that stocks would crash. “I expect crude oil prices to fall below $10 a barrel sometime over the next decade,” Prechter, founder of Elliott Wave International Inc., said in an e-mail yesterday. “It took many years for it to achieve $147.50, and it will take a long while for the full retreat to occur.”Oil should fall to between $4 and $10 a barrel based on a technical analysis called Elliott Wave principle, Prechter said in the Elliott Wave Theorist report last month. The forecast rests on a “supercycle” theory, which through a series of five waves from last century suggests a decline from last year’s peak.
Crude oil in New York reached a record in July before tumbling to $33.20 on Jan. 15 on expectations the global recession will sap demand for fuels. Oil has since more than doubled to $70.70 a barrel in New York. Brent oil rose to an all-time high of $147.50 on July 11, 2008.“The Elliott-Wave picture pretty much assures us that there will be no additional waves of advance to extend the ‘peak oil’ mania,” Prechter said in the report. “On the contrary, if five waves are complete from the early 1990s, oil should fall to between $4 and $10 a barrel, which, needless to say, supports our deflationary outlook.”Commodities may have peaked last year and the next major top may be in the late 2030s, Prechter said in the report, citing wave and cycle analyst Harry Dent, who showed a 29-year cycle in commodities, with past peaks in 1920, 1951, 1980 and 2008.
Equities Market
Two weeks after Prechter warned in 1987 that stocks would crash, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 23 percent. He advised betting against U.S. equities three months before the market peaked in October 2007. In February 2009, he recommended ending that bet in anticipation of a “sharp and scary rebound.”Technical analysis involves making predictions based on price and volume history.The Elliott Wave principle is named after Ralph Nelson Elliott, an accountant who developed the concept in the 1930s, proposing that market prices unfold in specific patterns, which practitioners today call Elliott waves.Last week, a Chatham House research fellow forecast that crude oil may reach $200 a barrel in the next five years as the global economy recovers from the recession and demand for the fuel increases.
Crude supply will be tight when demand rebounds because national and international companies haven’t spent enough on exploration and development, Professor Paul Stevens of the London-based research group said in an e-mailed statement.
Crude oil in New York reached a record in July before tumbling to $33.20 on Jan. 15 on expectations the global recession will sap demand for fuels. Oil has since more than doubled to $70.70 a barrel in New York. Brent oil rose to an all-time high of $147.50 on July 11, 2008.“The Elliott-Wave picture pretty much assures us that there will be no additional waves of advance to extend the ‘peak oil’ mania,” Prechter said in the report. “On the contrary, if five waves are complete from the early 1990s, oil should fall to between $4 and $10 a barrel, which, needless to say, supports our deflationary outlook.”Commodities may have peaked last year and the next major top may be in the late 2030s, Prechter said in the report, citing wave and cycle analyst Harry Dent, who showed a 29-year cycle in commodities, with past peaks in 1920, 1951, 1980 and 2008.
Equities Market
Two weeks after Prechter warned in 1987 that stocks would crash, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 23 percent. He advised betting against U.S. equities three months before the market peaked in October 2007. In February 2009, he recommended ending that bet in anticipation of a “sharp and scary rebound.”Technical analysis involves making predictions based on price and volume history.The Elliott Wave principle is named after Ralph Nelson Elliott, an accountant who developed the concept in the 1930s, proposing that market prices unfold in specific patterns, which practitioners today call Elliott waves.Last week, a Chatham House research fellow forecast that crude oil may reach $200 a barrel in the next five years as the global economy recovers from the recession and demand for the fuel increases.
Crude supply will be tight when demand rebounds because national and international companies haven’t spent enough on exploration and development, Professor Paul Stevens of the London-based research group said in an e-mailed statement.
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Aug 13 09 07:12 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's retreat was contained at 68.71 and recovered. Break of 71.32 minor resistance flip intraday bias back to the upside and further rally should be seen to test 73.38 resistance first. Break will confirm medium term rally resumption for 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. On the downside, below 68.71 will bring another fall but after all, as long as 62.70 holds, we'd still favor another rise that should eventually send crude oil through 73.38 resistance.
In the bigger picture, with crude oil staying inside medium term rising channel, we're still favoring the case that whole rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Hence, another rise rise towards 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 is in favor. But after all, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal finally. On the downside, break of 62.70 support will argue that crude oil has possibly topped out earlier than we thought and break of 58.32 support will now be an important signal that rise from 33.2 has completed.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's retreat was contained at 68.71 and recovered. Break of 71.32 minor resistance flip intraday bias back to the upside and further rally should be seen to test 73.38 resistance first. Break will confirm medium term rally resumption for 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. On the downside, below 68.71 will bring another fall but after all, as long as 62.70 holds, we'd still favor another rise that should eventually send crude oil through 73.38 resistance.
In the bigger picture, with crude oil staying inside medium term rising channel, we're still favoring the case that whole rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Hence, another rise rise towards 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 is in favor. But after all, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal finally. On the downside, break of 62.70 support will argue that crude oil has possibly topped out earlier than we thought and break of 58.32 support will now be an important signal that rise from 33.2 has completed.
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Aug 13 09 07:14 ET
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's fall from 974.3 was contained at 943.6 support and recovered strongly. Break of 952.8 minor resistance flips intraday bias back to the upside and further rise might be seen. Note that rebound from 904.8 is treated as part of the triangle consolidation that started at 1007.7. Hence, even though a break above 974.3 cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited below 992.1 and bring another fall. On the downside, below 943.6 will target 904.8 support next.
In the bigger picture, we're preferring the case that price actions from 1007.7 are developing into consolidations to larger rally from 681, probably in form of triangle. Break of 943.3 support will indicate that the final falling leg in the pattern has started and will target 904.8 support. But downside will likely be contained there and the case of deep fall to 865 is not likely. In any case, break sustained break of 1007.7 resistance will indicate that whole rally from 681 has resumed and should target 1033.9 key resistance next.
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's fall from 974.3 was contained at 943.6 support and recovered strongly. Break of 952.8 minor resistance flips intraday bias back to the upside and further rise might be seen. Note that rebound from 904.8 is treated as part of the triangle consolidation that started at 1007.7. Hence, even though a break above 974.3 cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited below 992.1 and bring another fall. On the downside, below 943.6 will target 904.8 support next.
In the bigger picture, we're preferring the case that price actions from 1007.7 are developing into consolidations to larger rally from 681, probably in form of triangle. Break of 943.3 support will indicate that the final falling leg in the pattern has started and will target 904.8 support. But downside will likely be contained there and the case of deep fall to 865 is not likely. In any case, break sustained break of 1007.7 resistance will indicate that whole rally from 681 has resumed and should target 1033.9 key resistance next.
Daily Technical Analysis Forex & Gold
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by ecPulse.com
EURO
The Euro versus Dollar pair inclined yesterday by the end of trading to stabilize around 1.4225 after the Feds rate decision resulted in fluctuations in the markets. The Stochastic indicator remains in an overbought area and as far as 1.4225, the pair may decline on the intraday basis targeting 1.4110 and perhaps extend towards 1.3960. Our expectations for today are valid as far as 1.4225 is intact. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3960 and the key resistance at 1.4450
The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4720 remains intact with targets at 1.2120.
Support: 1.4165, 1.4110, 1.4070, 1.4000, 1.3960
Resistance: 1.4225, 1.4275, 1.4305, 1.4385, 1.4440
Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is selling the pair from 1.4225 to 1.4110 and stop loss above 1.4305 might be appropriate.
GBP
Similar to the Euro, the Cable fluctuated heavily yesterday with several attempts to breach the pivot resistance (previously breached support) yet has failed. We wait for bearish signals from momentum indicators to support the strength of the resistance at 1.6555 where we believe the pair is to decline on the intraday basis targeting 1.6335 as an initial target. The decline remains valid as far as 1.6555 is intact.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.6115 and the key resistance at 1.6870. The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4840 remains intact with targets at 1.7100.
Support: 1.6425, 1.6360, 1.6335, 1.6265, 1.6210
Resistance: 1.6555, 1.6605, 1.6640, 1.6685, 1.6740
Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is selling the pair from 1.6555 to 1.6335 and stop loss above 1.6640 might be appropriate.
JPY
The USD/JPY pair attempted to breach the key resistance for the descending channel at 96.10 yet failed as the pair closed below it where we believe the pair is to decline on the intraday basis after reversing from the key resistance to target 94.05 and 93.15. Our expectations remain valid as far as no daily closing is above 96.10.The trading range for today is among the key support at 93.15 and the key resistance at 99.55. The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60
Support: 95.45, 94.75, 94.05, 93.70, 93.15
Resistance: 96.10, 96.85, 97.30, 97.90, 98.55
Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is selling the pair from 96.05 to 94.05 and stop loss above 96.85 might be appropriate.
CHF
The Dollar versus Swissy pair neared the targets for the bearish technical pattern explained during yesterday's report where we believe the target at 1.0715 will be a turning point for the pair to the upside in an attempt to breach the key resistance at 1.0830. The upside targets are at 1.1100 as far as 1.0715 is intact.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0375 and the key resistance at 1.1100
The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact with targets at 1.2245.
Support: 1.0715, 1.0665, 1.0570, 1.0530, 1.0505
Resistance: 1.0830, 1.0890, 1.0935, 1.0980, 1.1050
Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is buying the pair from 1.0715 to 1.0830 and stop loss below 1.0645 might be appropriate.
CAD
The Dollar versus Loonie pair was able to breach the awaited support at 1.1025 to reach targets at 1.0885 where the decline was halted at the 50% correction as seen in the above image. We expect the pair to rebound from 1.0855 to reach 1.1200 as far as 1.0800 remains intact.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0425 and the key resistance at 1.1200.
The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.1870 remains intact with targets at 1.0300.
Support: 1.0855, 1.0800, 1.0715, 1.0670, 1.0625
Resistance: 1.0905, 1.0970, 1.1045, 1.1080, 1.1100
Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is buying the pair from 1.0855 to 1.0970 and stop loss below 1.0790 might be appropriate.
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
Rupee :Rupee moved up to 48.50 levels but unable to break 48.60 resistance to change the bullish bias. It is likely to be rangebound between 48.10 to 48.25 today. Please note if the dollar momentum continues and Indian stocks sell off pushes rupee above 48.60 we would consider medium term weakness to resume till then rupee maintains stronger bias. Neutral (USD/INR : 48.16)
Sterling : Cable also took a trendline support close to 1.6370 levels and moved up to 1.6560 . It stands bearish below 1.6620. Current bias is slightly bearish and ON
Gold : Gold has also seen correction lately. Bullish only above 960 dollar otherwise rangebound. (Gold- $949.62). Rangebound
Dollar Index : The Dollar Index (basket against 6 currencies with EUR accounting for 57% of the basket) rebounded close to 77 levels. Expect retracement till 80 levels.Closing above 82 levels would change the bias of the index. (Dollar Index - 78.77) Neutral
EURO
The Euro versus Dollar pair inclined yesterday by the end of trading to stabilize around 1.4225 after the Feds rate decision resulted in fluctuations in the markets. The Stochastic indicator remains in an overbought area and as far as 1.4225, the pair may decline on the intraday basis targeting 1.4110 and perhaps extend towards 1.3960. Our expectations for today are valid as far as 1.4225 is intact. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3960 and the key resistance at 1.4450
The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4720 remains intact with targets at 1.2120.
Support: 1.4165, 1.4110, 1.4070, 1.4000, 1.3960
Resistance: 1.4225, 1.4275, 1.4305, 1.4385, 1.4440
Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is selling the pair from 1.4225 to 1.4110 and stop loss above 1.4305 might be appropriate.
GBP
Similar to the Euro, the Cable fluctuated heavily yesterday with several attempts to breach the pivot resistance (previously breached support) yet has failed. We wait for bearish signals from momentum indicators to support the strength of the resistance at 1.6555 where we believe the pair is to decline on the intraday basis targeting 1.6335 as an initial target. The decline remains valid as far as 1.6555 is intact.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.6115 and the key resistance at 1.6870. The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4840 remains intact with targets at 1.7100.
Support: 1.6425, 1.6360, 1.6335, 1.6265, 1.6210
Resistance: 1.6555, 1.6605, 1.6640, 1.6685, 1.6740
Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is selling the pair from 1.6555 to 1.6335 and stop loss above 1.6640 might be appropriate.
JPY
The USD/JPY pair attempted to breach the key resistance for the descending channel at 96.10 yet failed as the pair closed below it where we believe the pair is to decline on the intraday basis after reversing from the key resistance to target 94.05 and 93.15. Our expectations remain valid as far as no daily closing is above 96.10.The trading range for today is among the key support at 93.15 and the key resistance at 99.55. The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60
Support: 95.45, 94.75, 94.05, 93.70, 93.15
Resistance: 96.10, 96.85, 97.30, 97.90, 98.55
Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is selling the pair from 96.05 to 94.05 and stop loss above 96.85 might be appropriate.
CHF
The Dollar versus Swissy pair neared the targets for the bearish technical pattern explained during yesterday's report where we believe the target at 1.0715 will be a turning point for the pair to the upside in an attempt to breach the key resistance at 1.0830. The upside targets are at 1.1100 as far as 1.0715 is intact.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0375 and the key resistance at 1.1100
The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact with targets at 1.2245.
Support: 1.0715, 1.0665, 1.0570, 1.0530, 1.0505
Resistance: 1.0830, 1.0890, 1.0935, 1.0980, 1.1050
Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is buying the pair from 1.0715 to 1.0830 and stop loss below 1.0645 might be appropriate.
CAD
The Dollar versus Loonie pair was able to breach the awaited support at 1.1025 to reach targets at 1.0885 where the decline was halted at the 50% correction as seen in the above image. We expect the pair to rebound from 1.0855 to reach 1.1200 as far as 1.0800 remains intact.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0425 and the key resistance at 1.1200.
The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.1870 remains intact with targets at 1.0300.
Support: 1.0855, 1.0800, 1.0715, 1.0670, 1.0625
Resistance: 1.0905, 1.0970, 1.1045, 1.1080, 1.1100
Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is buying the pair from 1.0855 to 1.0970 and stop loss below 1.0790 might be appropriate.
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
Rupee :Rupee moved up to 48.50 levels but unable to break 48.60 resistance to change the bullish bias. It is likely to be rangebound between 48.10 to 48.25 today. Please note if the dollar momentum continues and Indian stocks sell off pushes rupee above 48.60 we would consider medium term weakness to resume till then rupee maintains stronger bias. Neutral (USD/INR : 48.16)
Sterling : Cable also took a trendline support close to 1.6370 levels and moved up to 1.6560 . It stands bearish below 1.6620. Current bias is slightly bearish and ON
Gold : Gold has also seen correction lately. Bullish only above 960 dollar otherwise rangebound. (Gold- $949.62). Rangebound
Dollar Index : The Dollar Index (basket against 6 currencies with EUR accounting for 57% of the basket) rebounded close to 77 levels. Expect retracement till 80 levels.Closing above 82 levels would change the bias of the index. (Dollar Index - 78.77) Neutral
Laporan Fundamental & Rumor Emiten 13-08-2009
Research Morgan Stanley : PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI) Overweight target Rp 23,500.
Bakrie & Brothers Roadshow
PT Bakrie & Brothers Tbk (BNBR) dikabarkan berencana menggelar roadshow ke mancanegara untuk menjaring sejumlah investor strategis. Sumber Investor Daily mengungkapkan, momentum itu akan dipakai untuk mengangkat harga BNBR menuju level Rp 150-200 dalam jangka pendek maupun menengah. Selain itu, kata dia, penerbitan obligasi konversi dan ekspansi anak usaha perseroan dengan membangunan pembangkit listrik juga bakal mendorong penguatan harga BNBR. Pada perdagangan kemarin, BNBR ditutup terkoreksi Rp 5 (3,68%) ke level Rp 131.
Cermati Saham Clipan Finance
HARGA saham PT Clipan Finance Indonesia Tbk (CFIN) berpotensi menembus Rp 300 dalam waktu dekat. Menurut sumber Investor Daily, aksi perseroan mengembangkan usahanya ke sektor pembiayaan pertambangan batubara siap mendongkrak harga CFIN. Apalagi, kata dia, perseroan telah memiliki kantor cabang di Sumatera, Sulawesi, dan Kalimantan. Pada perdagangan kemarin, CFIN ditutup stagnan di posisi Rp 200.
Pemerintah Daerah Nusa Tenggara Barat (NTB) tetap memperjuangkan agar saham 14% divestasi PT NNT jatuh ke Pemda. Walaupun Menkeu memutuskan sebagai gabungan antara pemerintah pusat dengan Pemda NTB.
The Fed pertahankan suku bunga 0.0% - 0.25% kemarin, akan meninggalkan strategy pembelian mortgage US$ 300 miliar di bulan Oktober.
Rupiah Menguat Lagi
Pada perdagangan Kamis (13/8/2009), rupiah dibuka menguat lagi ke 9.960 per dolar AS, dibandingkan penutupan sebelumnya di level 9.995 per dolar AS.
FREN: Sinar Mas & FREN Jajaki Merger, Akuisisi
Perusahaan telepon Grup Sinar Mas, Smart Telecom disinyalir tengah menjajaki merger atau akuisisi dengan FREN dan Dirut FREN pun membenarkan berita tersebut. Selain Sinar Mas, BTEL pun dikabarkan tengah menjajaki konsolidasi dengan FREN.
Biaya Eksplorasi BUMI Capai US$1,566 Juta
Perusahaan tambang batubara Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) telah menelan biaya eksplorasi anak usahanya mencapai US$1,566 juta sepanjang Juli 2009.
Antam Telan Biaya Eksplorasi Rp6,8 M
PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) telah menelan biaya eksplorasi mencapai Rp6,8 miliar pada Juli 2009.
Lippo Targetkan Kemang Village Rampung Tahun Depan
Kemang Village memiliki total luas lahan sebesar 12 hektare.
IHSG: Koleksi Consumer Goods & Ritel
Pada perdagangan Kamis (13/8), investor berpeluang memburu saham berbasis konsumsi, terkait prospek yang cerah pada semester kedua. Pilihannya adalah UNVR, INDF, MYOR, dan RALS. Sedangkan saham perbankan pilihan adalah BBRI.
Harga SUN Sudah Menarik Lagi
Sejak memasuki Agustus 2009, harga Surat Utang Negara cenderung merosot. Sentimen negatif dari pasar modal regional dan global menjadi pemicunya.
Kinerja Gajah Tunggal Mulai Menderu
Saham PT Gajah Tunggal (GJTL) mendapat rekomendasi positif. Hal ini terdorong membaiknya kinerja perseroan pada semester pertama 2009, ditunjang laba kurs yang besar pada kuartal kedua.
Ayo! Koleksi INDF, ITMG, UNVR, PGAS, BUMI
Aksi profit taking oleh investor pada perdagangan Rabu (12/8) diperkirakan akan melanjutkan aksinya besok (13/8) lantaran indeks di lantai bursa harus koreksi terlebih dahulu.
Menkeu Pede Investasi Membaik Semester II-2009
Nilai Proyek WIKA di Aljazair Naik Jadi Rp 800 Miliar
Bank Mandiri Ambisi Kuasai 30% Pangsa Pasar
Pada tahun ini, kredit Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI) akan tumbuh 10% di bawah target BMRI sebesar 15%. Hal ini menjadi momentum kenaikan harga saham Mandiri. Hal ini diprediksi analis Bahana Securities, Teguh Hartanto dalam risetnya Kamis (13/8). Seiring dengan pertumbuhan kredit, laba pun diperdiksi akan tumbuh 9% menjadi Rp6,2 triliun. "Target harga Bank Mandiri Rp4.600 dan kami merekomendasikan beli," katanya.
NAB Reksa Dana Capai Rp 101,6 T
Nilai aktiva bersih (NAB) reksa dana hingga 7 Agustus 2009 mencapai Rp 101,68 triliun atau naik 34,1% dibandingkan awal Januari 2009 sebesar Rp 75,82 triliun. Namun, total NAB itu turun dari posisi akhir Juli 2009 senilai Rp 103,66 triliun.
Kuartal IV, Indosat Terbitkan Obligasi
PT Indosat Tbk (ISAT) berencana menerbitkan obligasi pada kuartal IV-2009. Penerbitan surat utang itu untuk membiayai obligasi yang jatuh tempo (refinancing) dan kebutuhan belanja modal (capital expenditure/capex) pada 2010.
Asing Masih Dominasi Pasar Saham
Investor asing menguasai 66% saham atau setara Rp 696,65 triliun di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI). Adapun kepemilikan pemodal asing pada obligasi dan sukuk korporasi mencapai 3% (Rp 2,58 triliun).
BNBR: Kepemilikan Saham di BUMI Merosot Drastis
Berdasarkan data PT Ficomindo Buana Registar, biro administrasi efek (BAE), BNBR sudah tak lagi menjadi pemegang saham BUMI di atas 5%. Padahal, per Maret09 BNBR masih memiliki 13,67% atau 2,588 miliar saham BUMI . Belum diketahui berapa besar kepemilikan BNBR atas BUMI saat ini, namun investor individu yang miliki saham BUMI tercatat 35.366 investor. Comment: Tidak ada negative issue dari perubahan pencatatan kepemilikan, karena Bakrie memang mengadaikan rata-rata saham BUMI tersebut kepada pihak pemberi pinjaman sehingga saham tersebut berada pasa katodi atau tidak dalam hak BNBR. Saran saya untuk buy on weakness untuk BNBR
BELI KAPAL TANKER US$ 15 JUTA, Trada Maritime Menangi Tender Rp 346 M
PT Trada Maritime Tbk (TRAM) membeli kapal tanker minyak seharga US$ 15 juta atau sekitar Rp 150 miliar, menyusul dimenanginya tender kontrak pengangkutan minyak mentah senilai Rp 346 miliar oleh perseroan.
PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BNI ) akan melepaskan 3% sahamnya ke investor privat (green Shoe). Pelepasan 3 % saham BNI ini akan dilakukan dalam waktu yang tidak lama lagi.
Matahari Targetkan Pendapatan Naik 20%
Ekspansi MPPA tak akan segencar tahun lalu.
Sumber: Inilah.com, Kontan.co.id, Detik.com, Bloomberg, Reuters.
www.strategydesk.co.id
Bakrie & Brothers Roadshow
PT Bakrie & Brothers Tbk (BNBR) dikabarkan berencana menggelar roadshow ke mancanegara untuk menjaring sejumlah investor strategis. Sumber Investor Daily mengungkapkan, momentum itu akan dipakai untuk mengangkat harga BNBR menuju level Rp 150-200 dalam jangka pendek maupun menengah. Selain itu, kata dia, penerbitan obligasi konversi dan ekspansi anak usaha perseroan dengan membangunan pembangkit listrik juga bakal mendorong penguatan harga BNBR. Pada perdagangan kemarin, BNBR ditutup terkoreksi Rp 5 (3,68%) ke level Rp 131.
Cermati Saham Clipan Finance
HARGA saham PT Clipan Finance Indonesia Tbk (CFIN) berpotensi menembus Rp 300 dalam waktu dekat. Menurut sumber Investor Daily, aksi perseroan mengembangkan usahanya ke sektor pembiayaan pertambangan batubara siap mendongkrak harga CFIN. Apalagi, kata dia, perseroan telah memiliki kantor cabang di Sumatera, Sulawesi, dan Kalimantan. Pada perdagangan kemarin, CFIN ditutup stagnan di posisi Rp 200.
Pemerintah Daerah Nusa Tenggara Barat (NTB) tetap memperjuangkan agar saham 14% divestasi PT NNT jatuh ke Pemda. Walaupun Menkeu memutuskan sebagai gabungan antara pemerintah pusat dengan Pemda NTB.
The Fed pertahankan suku bunga 0.0% - 0.25% kemarin, akan meninggalkan strategy pembelian mortgage US$ 300 miliar di bulan Oktober.
Rupiah Menguat Lagi
Pada perdagangan Kamis (13/8/2009), rupiah dibuka menguat lagi ke 9.960 per dolar AS, dibandingkan penutupan sebelumnya di level 9.995 per dolar AS.
FREN: Sinar Mas & FREN Jajaki Merger, Akuisisi
Perusahaan telepon Grup Sinar Mas, Smart Telecom disinyalir tengah menjajaki merger atau akuisisi dengan FREN dan Dirut FREN pun membenarkan berita tersebut. Selain Sinar Mas, BTEL pun dikabarkan tengah menjajaki konsolidasi dengan FREN.
Biaya Eksplorasi BUMI Capai US$1,566 Juta
Perusahaan tambang batubara Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) telah menelan biaya eksplorasi anak usahanya mencapai US$1,566 juta sepanjang Juli 2009.
Antam Telan Biaya Eksplorasi Rp6,8 M
PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) telah menelan biaya eksplorasi mencapai Rp6,8 miliar pada Juli 2009.
Lippo Targetkan Kemang Village Rampung Tahun Depan
Kemang Village memiliki total luas lahan sebesar 12 hektare.
IHSG: Koleksi Consumer Goods & Ritel
Pada perdagangan Kamis (13/8), investor berpeluang memburu saham berbasis konsumsi, terkait prospek yang cerah pada semester kedua. Pilihannya adalah UNVR, INDF, MYOR, dan RALS. Sedangkan saham perbankan pilihan adalah BBRI.
Harga SUN Sudah Menarik Lagi
Sejak memasuki Agustus 2009, harga Surat Utang Negara cenderung merosot. Sentimen negatif dari pasar modal regional dan global menjadi pemicunya.
Kinerja Gajah Tunggal Mulai Menderu
Saham PT Gajah Tunggal (GJTL) mendapat rekomendasi positif. Hal ini terdorong membaiknya kinerja perseroan pada semester pertama 2009, ditunjang laba kurs yang besar pada kuartal kedua.
Ayo! Koleksi INDF, ITMG, UNVR, PGAS, BUMI
Aksi profit taking oleh investor pada perdagangan Rabu (12/8) diperkirakan akan melanjutkan aksinya besok (13/8) lantaran indeks di lantai bursa harus koreksi terlebih dahulu.
Menkeu Pede Investasi Membaik Semester II-2009
Nilai Proyek WIKA di Aljazair Naik Jadi Rp 800 Miliar
Bank Mandiri Ambisi Kuasai 30% Pangsa Pasar
Pada tahun ini, kredit Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI) akan tumbuh 10% di bawah target BMRI sebesar 15%. Hal ini menjadi momentum kenaikan harga saham Mandiri. Hal ini diprediksi analis Bahana Securities, Teguh Hartanto dalam risetnya Kamis (13/8). Seiring dengan pertumbuhan kredit, laba pun diperdiksi akan tumbuh 9% menjadi Rp6,2 triliun. "Target harga Bank Mandiri Rp4.600 dan kami merekomendasikan beli," katanya.
NAB Reksa Dana Capai Rp 101,6 T
Nilai aktiva bersih (NAB) reksa dana hingga 7 Agustus 2009 mencapai Rp 101,68 triliun atau naik 34,1% dibandingkan awal Januari 2009 sebesar Rp 75,82 triliun. Namun, total NAB itu turun dari posisi akhir Juli 2009 senilai Rp 103,66 triliun.
Kuartal IV, Indosat Terbitkan Obligasi
PT Indosat Tbk (ISAT) berencana menerbitkan obligasi pada kuartal IV-2009. Penerbitan surat utang itu untuk membiayai obligasi yang jatuh tempo (refinancing) dan kebutuhan belanja modal (capital expenditure/capex) pada 2010.
Asing Masih Dominasi Pasar Saham
Investor asing menguasai 66% saham atau setara Rp 696,65 triliun di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI). Adapun kepemilikan pemodal asing pada obligasi dan sukuk korporasi mencapai 3% (Rp 2,58 triliun).
BNBR: Kepemilikan Saham di BUMI Merosot Drastis
Berdasarkan data PT Ficomindo Buana Registar, biro administrasi efek (BAE), BNBR sudah tak lagi menjadi pemegang saham BUMI di atas 5%. Padahal, per Maret09 BNBR masih memiliki 13,67% atau 2,588 miliar saham BUMI . Belum diketahui berapa besar kepemilikan BNBR atas BUMI saat ini, namun investor individu yang miliki saham BUMI tercatat 35.366 investor. Comment: Tidak ada negative issue dari perubahan pencatatan kepemilikan, karena Bakrie memang mengadaikan rata-rata saham BUMI tersebut kepada pihak pemberi pinjaman sehingga saham tersebut berada pasa katodi atau tidak dalam hak BNBR. Saran saya untuk buy on weakness untuk BNBR
BELI KAPAL TANKER US$ 15 JUTA, Trada Maritime Menangi Tender Rp 346 M
PT Trada Maritime Tbk (TRAM) membeli kapal tanker minyak seharga US$ 15 juta atau sekitar Rp 150 miliar, menyusul dimenanginya tender kontrak pengangkutan minyak mentah senilai Rp 346 miliar oleh perseroan.
PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BNI ) akan melepaskan 3% sahamnya ke investor privat (green Shoe). Pelepasan 3 % saham BNI ini akan dilakukan dalam waktu yang tidak lama lagi.
Matahari Targetkan Pendapatan Naik 20%
Ekspansi MPPA tak akan segencar tahun lalu.
Sumber: Inilah.com, Kontan.co.id, Detik.com, Bloomberg, Reuters.
www.strategydesk.co.id
Sejumlah Isu Positif Akan Topang Kinerja IHSG Hari Ini
Market Review
IHSG mendapatkan tekanan yang cukup signifikan kemarin, berkat imbas negatif dari anjloknya pasar saham regional Asia yang dipimpin oleh indeks saham komposit Shanghai (anjlok 4.66% ditutup di 3,112.719) dan penurunan harga komoditi global yang memberikan tekanan kepada saham pertambangan dan perkebunan. Investor juga melakukan aksi profit-taking menanti hasil keputusan Mahkamah Konstitusi mengenai sengketa hasil pilpres dan pertemuan the Fed hari Rabu, ikut menyebabkan jatuhnya IHSG ke level terendah 2.326.814. IHSG anjlok 51,918 poin (-2.164%) ditutup di 2,347.358, dengan nilai transaksi Rp 6,531 triliun. Investor asing mencatat net selling Rp 300,79 miliar, dibandingkan net selling Rp 13.373 miliar hari Selasa (11/08).
Indeks saham MSCI Asia-Pacific melemah untuk pertama kali dalam 3 hari terakhir karena saham China memasuki fase koreksi di tengah kekhawatiran rallynya saham telah melampaui prospek earning. Pernyataan Menteri Perdagangan China bahwa usaha untuk meningkatkan permintaan domestik tidak dapat sepenuhnya mengatasi penurunan ekspor, berperan menekan indeks saham komposit Shanghai. Penguatan yen terhadap dolar ikut menekan indeks Nikkei 225.
IHSG Outlook
Ind P/E (x)
EPS
Y/Y Y/Y Suku Bunga* Inflasi*
Y/Y GDP*
Y/Y
IHSG 16.1 8% +12% 6.50% 2.7% 4.0%
STI 22.0 16% -7.8% 0.69% -0.70% -10.1%
KLCI 14.9 10% +2.5% 2.0% 3.00% -6.2%
SET 13.5 4% -10.0% 1.25% -3.30% -7.10%
SSE 38.5 36% +9.8% 5.31% -1.40% 7.9%
N225 47.8 -1% -23.0% 0.10% -0.10% -9.7%
HSI 26.5 19% -8.6% 0.50% 0.60% -7.80%
DJIA 18.0 3% -15.2% 0.25% -1.4% -3.6%
* Negara Bersangkutan
Penurunan IHSG kemarin terlihat wajar dalam sebuah trend yang bullish dan kenaikan selama 4 pekan berturut-turut, akibat investor melakukan aksi profit-taking menjelang sejumlah event penting seperti keputusan Mahkamah Konstitusi mengenai sengketa hasil pilpres, partai Golkar menggelar Rapat Pimpinan Nasional (Rapimnas) 12-13 Agustus yang dapat mempercepat pelaksanaan Musyawarah Nasional (Munas) dan pertemuan 2 hari bank sentral AS (11-12 Agustus) untuk memutuskan suku bunga. Imbas terkoreksinya indeks saham regional Asia yang berada dalam kondisi overbought dan valuasi yang mahal (PER indeks MSCI Asia-Pasific 25x) dan penurunan harga komoditi global (target harga minyak $ 73/77), membebani harga saham komoditi lokal. Sementara lembaga pemeringkat international Moodys memberikan rating negatif untuk pandangan perbankan nasional (perkiraan lonjakan NPL di bank BUMN) dapat membebani kinerja saham perbankan, diikuti kinerja indeks saham regional dengan
valuasi saham yang mahal.
Potensi penurunan IHSG terbatas dan cenderung mengalami technical rebound, terutama ditopang oleh saham yang memiliki fundamental, sentimen dan teknikal yang positif, seperti saham Grup Bakrie (isu convertible bond, penawaran FREN, blue print BNBR, Newmont), ANTM (isu Newmont besok), Grup Bimantara (uji tuntas akuisisi), saham CPO (antisipasi badai El Nino), penolakan MK terhadap sengketa Pilpres dan sejumlah rumor positif di saham FREN, TBLA, TRUB, HEXA, INKP, JSMR.
Stock Picks: Average last 7 week +54.39%. Target 10-20%, Risk < -10%
Hold Buy: BUMI/ELTY/ENRG/BNBR/DEWA/BTEL, HEXA, INKP, PTBA, KLBF, INCO,TINS,UNSP,SGRO,ADRO,BMRI,KIJA,PGAS, AKRA, ANTM, TRUB. Buy FREN
Stock Picks:
• INTA : Buy target Rp 875
• LSIP : Hold target Rp 8,500
Global Outlook
Tekanan negatif diperkirakan dapat diredam oleh munculnya sentimen positif kemarin, terutama perkiraan resesi ekonomi global di tahun ini, kenaikan harga minyak diatas $ 71/barel (inventory +2.5 juta barel pekan lalu), lebih baik dari perkiraan laporan keuangan Toll Brothers (kontraktor hunian mewah terbesar di AS), Macy’s Inc (retailer), Applied Material Inc (perusahaan semikonduktor), serta Credit Suisse upgrade rating VeriSign Inc, dapat angkat sentimen investor global. Sementara positifnya data ekonomi International Trade AS menunjukkan kenaikan ekspor 0.2%, impor naik 2.3% di bulan Juni (total -US$ 27 miliar), The Bloomberg Professional Global Confidence Index Agustus melonjak ke 58.12 dari 39.13 dan optimisme untuk saham AS melonjak di bulan Agustus, serta laporan short interest di indeks S&P 500 anjlok menjadi 8.77 miliar saham pada 31 Juli (turun 12% dari 2 pekan sebelumnya) dan perkiraan the Fed masih mempertahankan suku bunga hingga akhir
tahun, seharusnya picu technical rebound di saham global hari ini. Meski laju kenaikan dapat dibatasi imbas negatif dari komentar analis Dick Bove yang melihat pendapatan bank di AS tidak akan membaik di H2 2009 dan JP Morgan downgrade MBIA Inc, di tengah mahalnya valuasi saham China & AS.
Technical Analysis:
IHSG mendapatkan signal negatif dari pola black closing candle yang merupakan indikasi bearish continuation (low reliability) dalam sebuah uptrend channel yang masih mendukung potensi kenaikan ke target ,2,383 (middle line channel) & 2,425 (76.4% FR 2838-1089 & projection 61.8%), jika ditutup diatas level tersebut target berikutnya di 2,500 (projection 100.0%). Indikator ADX terkoreksi, stochastic dan MACD bullish dibayangi overbought, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan potensi penurunan terbatas. IHSG masih mempertahankan pola uptrend selama ditutup harian diatas 2,264 (channel support). Hitungan Elliot Wave, IHSG masih berada dalam wave minor V (perkiraan peak di 2,425???) dalam extended motive wave 3) dalam siklus wave intermediate (4)/B.
Resistance: 2430.14/2409.45/2388.75/2373.27. PP 2357.78
Support : 2337.09/2316.39/2300.91/2285.42
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2,360 - 2,425)
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www.universalbroker.co.id (code TF)
IHSG mendapatkan tekanan yang cukup signifikan kemarin, berkat imbas negatif dari anjloknya pasar saham regional Asia yang dipimpin oleh indeks saham komposit Shanghai (anjlok 4.66% ditutup di 3,112.719) dan penurunan harga komoditi global yang memberikan tekanan kepada saham pertambangan dan perkebunan. Investor juga melakukan aksi profit-taking menanti hasil keputusan Mahkamah Konstitusi mengenai sengketa hasil pilpres dan pertemuan the Fed hari Rabu, ikut menyebabkan jatuhnya IHSG ke level terendah 2.326.814. IHSG anjlok 51,918 poin (-2.164%) ditutup di 2,347.358, dengan nilai transaksi Rp 6,531 triliun. Investor asing mencatat net selling Rp 300,79 miliar, dibandingkan net selling Rp 13.373 miliar hari Selasa (11/08).
Indeks saham MSCI Asia-Pacific melemah untuk pertama kali dalam 3 hari terakhir karena saham China memasuki fase koreksi di tengah kekhawatiran rallynya saham telah melampaui prospek earning. Pernyataan Menteri Perdagangan China bahwa usaha untuk meningkatkan permintaan domestik tidak dapat sepenuhnya mengatasi penurunan ekspor, berperan menekan indeks saham komposit Shanghai. Penguatan yen terhadap dolar ikut menekan indeks Nikkei 225.
IHSG Outlook
Ind P/E (x)
EPS
Y/Y Y/Y Suku Bunga* Inflasi*
Y/Y GDP*
Y/Y
IHSG 16.1 8% +12% 6.50% 2.7% 4.0%
STI 22.0 16% -7.8% 0.69% -0.70% -10.1%
KLCI 14.9 10% +2.5% 2.0% 3.00% -6.2%
SET 13.5 4% -10.0% 1.25% -3.30% -7.10%
SSE 38.5 36% +9.8% 5.31% -1.40% 7.9%
N225 47.8 -1% -23.0% 0.10% -0.10% -9.7%
HSI 26.5 19% -8.6% 0.50% 0.60% -7.80%
DJIA 18.0 3% -15.2% 0.25% -1.4% -3.6%
* Negara Bersangkutan
Penurunan IHSG kemarin terlihat wajar dalam sebuah trend yang bullish dan kenaikan selama 4 pekan berturut-turut, akibat investor melakukan aksi profit-taking menjelang sejumlah event penting seperti keputusan Mahkamah Konstitusi mengenai sengketa hasil pilpres, partai Golkar menggelar Rapat Pimpinan Nasional (Rapimnas) 12-13 Agustus yang dapat mempercepat pelaksanaan Musyawarah Nasional (Munas) dan pertemuan 2 hari bank sentral AS (11-12 Agustus) untuk memutuskan suku bunga. Imbas terkoreksinya indeks saham regional Asia yang berada dalam kondisi overbought dan valuasi yang mahal (PER indeks MSCI Asia-Pasific 25x) dan penurunan harga komoditi global (target harga minyak $ 73/77), membebani harga saham komoditi lokal. Sementara lembaga pemeringkat international Moodys memberikan rating negatif untuk pandangan perbankan nasional (perkiraan lonjakan NPL di bank BUMN) dapat membebani kinerja saham perbankan, diikuti kinerja indeks saham regional dengan
valuasi saham yang mahal.
Potensi penurunan IHSG terbatas dan cenderung mengalami technical rebound, terutama ditopang oleh saham yang memiliki fundamental, sentimen dan teknikal yang positif, seperti saham Grup Bakrie (isu convertible bond, penawaran FREN, blue print BNBR, Newmont), ANTM (isu Newmont besok), Grup Bimantara (uji tuntas akuisisi), saham CPO (antisipasi badai El Nino), penolakan MK terhadap sengketa Pilpres dan sejumlah rumor positif di saham FREN, TBLA, TRUB, HEXA, INKP, JSMR.
Stock Picks: Average last 7 week +54.39%. Target 10-20%, Risk < -10%
Hold Buy: BUMI/ELTY/ENRG/BNBR/DEWA/BTEL, HEXA, INKP, PTBA, KLBF, INCO,TINS,UNSP,SGRO,ADRO,BMRI,KIJA,PGAS, AKRA, ANTM, TRUB. Buy FREN
Stock Picks:
• INTA : Buy target Rp 875
• LSIP : Hold target Rp 8,500
Global Outlook
Tekanan negatif diperkirakan dapat diredam oleh munculnya sentimen positif kemarin, terutama perkiraan resesi ekonomi global di tahun ini, kenaikan harga minyak diatas $ 71/barel (inventory +2.5 juta barel pekan lalu), lebih baik dari perkiraan laporan keuangan Toll Brothers (kontraktor hunian mewah terbesar di AS), Macy’s Inc (retailer), Applied Material Inc (perusahaan semikonduktor), serta Credit Suisse upgrade rating VeriSign Inc, dapat angkat sentimen investor global. Sementara positifnya data ekonomi International Trade AS menunjukkan kenaikan ekspor 0.2%, impor naik 2.3% di bulan Juni (total -US$ 27 miliar), The Bloomberg Professional Global Confidence Index Agustus melonjak ke 58.12 dari 39.13 dan optimisme untuk saham AS melonjak di bulan Agustus, serta laporan short interest di indeks S&P 500 anjlok menjadi 8.77 miliar saham pada 31 Juli (turun 12% dari 2 pekan sebelumnya) dan perkiraan the Fed masih mempertahankan suku bunga hingga akhir
tahun, seharusnya picu technical rebound di saham global hari ini. Meski laju kenaikan dapat dibatasi imbas negatif dari komentar analis Dick Bove yang melihat pendapatan bank di AS tidak akan membaik di H2 2009 dan JP Morgan downgrade MBIA Inc, di tengah mahalnya valuasi saham China & AS.
Technical Analysis:
IHSG mendapatkan signal negatif dari pola black closing candle yang merupakan indikasi bearish continuation (low reliability) dalam sebuah uptrend channel yang masih mendukung potensi kenaikan ke target ,2,383 (middle line channel) & 2,425 (76.4% FR 2838-1089 & projection 61.8%), jika ditutup diatas level tersebut target berikutnya di 2,500 (projection 100.0%). Indikator ADX terkoreksi, stochastic dan MACD bullish dibayangi overbought, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan potensi penurunan terbatas. IHSG masih mempertahankan pola uptrend selama ditutup harian diatas 2,264 (channel support). Hitungan Elliot Wave, IHSG masih berada dalam wave minor V (perkiraan peak di 2,425???) dalam extended motive wave 3) dalam siklus wave intermediate (4)/B.
Resistance: 2430.14/2409.45/2388.75/2373.27. PP 2357.78
Support : 2337.09/2316.39/2300.91/2285.42
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2,360 - 2,425)
www.strategydesk.co.id
www.harumdanaberjangka.co.id
www.universalbroker.co.id (code TF)
Paska FOMC Dukung Technical Rebound Saham Asia
Nikkei Futures Kontrak September (SSIU9)
Indeks Nikkei mengalami penurunan dari penutupan tertinggi dalam 10 bulan terakhir, menyusul kecemasan pelaku pasar terhadap pemulihan ekonomi AS seiring buruknya data ekonomi (wholesale inventories). Selain itu, aksi ambil untung turut mewarnai pergerakan pasar saham jelang pertemuan kebijakan Federal Reserve. Indeks Nikkei .N225 ditutup anjlok 150,46 poin, atau 1,42%, ke posisi 10.435,00.
Di chart daily, indeks mendapatkan signal negatif dari pola candle three black crows dalam uptrend channel, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi penurunan terbatas. Indikator masih mendukung potensi kenaikan ADX flat, stochastic dead cross dan MACD bullish, seharusnya mendukung potensi technical rebound. Resistance di 10645 (resistance channel)/10870). Support 10337 (channel support) /10103 (10-day MA) Perkiraan range hari ini 10300-10450. Rekomendasi Sell 10650 target 10350 stp 100p. Buy 10340 target 10650 stop 100p, Buy 10110 target 10650 stop 100p, buy break 10500 target 10650, sell 10800 target 10500. -100p Chart SSIU9 Daily
Kospi Futures Kontrak September (KSU9)
Indeks Kospi jatuh 0,88% dalam perdagangan Rabu kemarin, dipicu melorotnya saham bank seperti KB Financial Group dan kekhawatiran investor jelang keputusan suku bunga Federal Reserve. Indeks Kospi .KS11 ditutup jatuh 13,86 poin, atau 0,88, ke posisi 1.565,35 poin.
Dalam chart daily, indeks masih berada dalam uptrend channel dan ascending triangle, meski menunjukkan signal bearish dari pola double top yang merupakan potensi bearish reversal. Sementara kondisi stochastic overbought, MACD bullish dan ADX terkoreksi, seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan terbatas. Resistance di 206.50/210.30 (middle line channel). Support di 200.50/198.50. Rekomendasi Buy 201.30 target 205.00 stop 100p, buy break 203.25 target 205.50, Sell 206.00 target 197.50 stop 100p. Buy break 206.65 target 209.50 stop 100p. Sell 198.00 target 205.00 stop 100p. (-100p) Chart KSU9 Daily
Hang Seng Futures Kontrak Agustus (HSIQ9)
Indeks Hang Seng anjlok kemarin, mengikuti kejatuhan bursa Shanghai 4,66%, karena meningkatnya kekhawatiran bank-bank Cina akan mengurangi kredit, kondisi yang bisa mengganggu likuiditas yang selama ini mendorong kinerja bursa. Kejatuhan indeks Hang Seng juga dipicu merosotnya kinerja indeks utama Wall Street Selasa malam. Indeks Hang Seng .HSI ditutup anjlok 638,97 poin, atau 3,03%, menjadi 20435,24, menjauh dari level penutupan 21.000, tertinggi dalam 12 bulan terakhir yang dicatatkannya sebelumnya.
Dalam chart daily, indeks kembali menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola candle long black meredam tekanan di tengah kondisi pasar yang overbought. Diartikan potensi penurunan di tengah kondisi overbought stochastic dan MACD, ADX terkoreksi, mendukung potensi technical rebound. Resistance di 20,638/ 21.158 (trendline)/21361. Support 20255 (channel support)/20012 (76.4 FR). Hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan koreksi c dalam proses wave 4) dalam subwave motive 4 / cycle B. Rekomendasi : Sell break 20250 target 19800stop 100 p. Hold Buy 20350 target 20750 stop 100p. Buy 20,000 target 20650. Sell 21150 & 21350 target 20600 stop 100p. Buy break 20550 & 20750 & break 21200 target 21350 or closing stop 100p, (-100p+300p) Chart HSIN9 Daily
Indeks Nikkei mengalami penurunan dari penutupan tertinggi dalam 10 bulan terakhir, menyusul kecemasan pelaku pasar terhadap pemulihan ekonomi AS seiring buruknya data ekonomi (wholesale inventories). Selain itu, aksi ambil untung turut mewarnai pergerakan pasar saham jelang pertemuan kebijakan Federal Reserve. Indeks Nikkei .N225 ditutup anjlok 150,46 poin, atau 1,42%, ke posisi 10.435,00.
Di chart daily, indeks mendapatkan signal negatif dari pola candle three black crows dalam uptrend channel, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi penurunan terbatas. Indikator masih mendukung potensi kenaikan ADX flat, stochastic dead cross dan MACD bullish, seharusnya mendukung potensi technical rebound. Resistance di 10645 (resistance channel)/10870). Support 10337 (channel support) /10103 (10-day MA) Perkiraan range hari ini 10300-10450. Rekomendasi Sell 10650 target 10350 stp 100p. Buy 10340 target 10650 stop 100p, Buy 10110 target 10650 stop 100p, buy break 10500 target 10650, sell 10800 target 10500. -100p Chart SSIU9 Daily
Kospi Futures Kontrak September (KSU9)
Indeks Kospi jatuh 0,88% dalam perdagangan Rabu kemarin, dipicu melorotnya saham bank seperti KB Financial Group dan kekhawatiran investor jelang keputusan suku bunga Federal Reserve. Indeks Kospi .KS11 ditutup jatuh 13,86 poin, atau 0,88, ke posisi 1.565,35 poin.
Dalam chart daily, indeks masih berada dalam uptrend channel dan ascending triangle, meski menunjukkan signal bearish dari pola double top yang merupakan potensi bearish reversal. Sementara kondisi stochastic overbought, MACD bullish dan ADX terkoreksi, seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan terbatas. Resistance di 206.50/210.30 (middle line channel). Support di 200.50/198.50. Rekomendasi Buy 201.30 target 205.00 stop 100p, buy break 203.25 target 205.50, Sell 206.00 target 197.50 stop 100p. Buy break 206.65 target 209.50 stop 100p. Sell 198.00 target 205.00 stop 100p. (-100p) Chart KSU9 Daily
Hang Seng Futures Kontrak Agustus (HSIQ9)
Indeks Hang Seng anjlok kemarin, mengikuti kejatuhan bursa Shanghai 4,66%, karena meningkatnya kekhawatiran bank-bank Cina akan mengurangi kredit, kondisi yang bisa mengganggu likuiditas yang selama ini mendorong kinerja bursa. Kejatuhan indeks Hang Seng juga dipicu merosotnya kinerja indeks utama Wall Street Selasa malam. Indeks Hang Seng .HSI ditutup anjlok 638,97 poin, atau 3,03%, menjadi 20435,24, menjauh dari level penutupan 21.000, tertinggi dalam 12 bulan terakhir yang dicatatkannya sebelumnya.
Dalam chart daily, indeks kembali menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola candle long black meredam tekanan di tengah kondisi pasar yang overbought. Diartikan potensi penurunan di tengah kondisi overbought stochastic dan MACD, ADX terkoreksi, mendukung potensi technical rebound. Resistance di 20,638/ 21.158 (trendline)/21361. Support 20255 (channel support)/20012 (76.4 FR). Hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan koreksi c dalam proses wave 4) dalam subwave motive 4 / cycle B. Rekomendasi : Sell break 20250 target 19800stop 100 p. Hold Buy 20350 target 20750 stop 100p. Buy 20,000 target 20650. Sell 21150 & 21350 target 20600 stop 100p. Buy break 20550 & 20750 & break 21200 target 21350 or closing stop 100p, (-100p+300p) Chart HSIN9 Daily
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Forex - Euro & Pound berpotensi melanjutkan Technical Rebound
Technical Analysis
EUR-USD
(+120p) Masih bertahan di atas channel support 1.4109 dalam sebuah uptrend channel yang seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan. Indikator ADX terkoreksi, stochastic flat dan MACD bullish, seharusnya masih dukung potensi technical rebound. Support berada di 1.4070/1.4010, Resistance berada di 1.420/1.4295. Euro dalam proses koreksi a) dalam wave koreksi 4, untuk target 1.4000, selama tidak ditutup diatas 1.4220. Buy 1.4150 target 1.4350, buy 1.4070 target 1.4220 stop 60p, Hold buy 1.4230 target 1.4350 stop 60p. sell 1.4350 & 1.4450 target 1.4100 buy break 1.4470 trgt 1.4730. sell break 1.3980 target 1.3750. USD-JPY
(-100p) Laju kenaikan USDJPY tertahan oleh upper channel di 98.03 di daily chart dan kondisi candle yang sebelumnya menunjukkan dark cloud (10/08) yang merupakan indkasi reversal. Penutupan dibawah middle line channel di 96.50 akan mengarahkan USDJPY ke target support channel di 95.24. Indikator ADX flat, stochastic dead cross, MACD bearish, seharusnya mendukung peluang kenaikan selama diatas support 95.24. Resistance berada di 98.05/98.65, support di 95.70. Sell 96.80 target 98.50 stop 100p. sell 98.00 target 96.00 stop 60p. Hold buy 95.70 & Buy 95.30 stop 70p target 98.50. Sell 98.75 target 97.00.
GBP-USD
(-140p) GBP masih berada dalam pola broadening bullish dan uptrend channel, diikuti indikator ADX flat, stochastic dead cross dan MACD masih berada di teritorial bullish, mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas selama ditutup diatas channel support 1.6225. Buy 1.6290 target 1.6700 stop 1.6400. sell 1.6700 target 1.6500 stop 60p, hold buy 1.6540 target 1.6700. Sell 1.6800 target 1.6450 stop 60p. Hold Buy 1.6430 target 1.6700 stop 100p. Sell 1.7050 target 1.6750.
(-60p) AUD masih berada dalam uptrenc channel dan trend bullish jangka menengah, diikuti pola candle bullish hammer, sementara indikator ADX terkoreksi, stochastic flat, MACD masih bullish, mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas target 0.8450, selama di bawah 0.8130. Resistance di 0.8450/0.8500, support di 0.8180/0.8100. Hold Buy 0.8300 target 0.8450, sell 0.8450 target 0.8300 & sell break 0.8250 stop 0.8170. sell break 0.8000 target 0.7900. Buy 0.8180 target 0.8300.
EUR-USD
(+120p) Masih bertahan di atas channel support 1.4109 dalam sebuah uptrend channel yang seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan. Indikator ADX terkoreksi, stochastic flat dan MACD bullish, seharusnya masih dukung potensi technical rebound. Support berada di 1.4070/1.4010, Resistance berada di 1.420/1.4295. Euro dalam proses koreksi a) dalam wave koreksi 4, untuk target 1.4000, selama tidak ditutup diatas 1.4220. Buy 1.4150 target 1.4350, buy 1.4070 target 1.4220 stop 60p, Hold buy 1.4230 target 1.4350 stop 60p. sell 1.4350 & 1.4450 target 1.4100 buy break 1.4470 trgt 1.4730. sell break 1.3980 target 1.3750. USD-JPY
(-100p) Laju kenaikan USDJPY tertahan oleh upper channel di 98.03 di daily chart dan kondisi candle yang sebelumnya menunjukkan dark cloud (10/08) yang merupakan indkasi reversal. Penutupan dibawah middle line channel di 96.50 akan mengarahkan USDJPY ke target support channel di 95.24. Indikator ADX flat, stochastic dead cross, MACD bearish, seharusnya mendukung peluang kenaikan selama diatas support 95.24. Resistance berada di 98.05/98.65, support di 95.70. Sell 96.80 target 98.50 stop 100p. sell 98.00 target 96.00 stop 60p. Hold buy 95.70 & Buy 95.30 stop 70p target 98.50. Sell 98.75 target 97.00.
GBP-USD
(-140p) GBP masih berada dalam pola broadening bullish dan uptrend channel, diikuti indikator ADX flat, stochastic dead cross dan MACD masih berada di teritorial bullish, mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas selama ditutup diatas channel support 1.6225. Buy 1.6290 target 1.6700 stop 1.6400. sell 1.6700 target 1.6500 stop 60p, hold buy 1.6540 target 1.6700. Sell 1.6800 target 1.6450 stop 60p. Hold Buy 1.6430 target 1.6700 stop 100p. Sell 1.7050 target 1.6750.
(-60p) AUD masih berada dalam uptrenc channel dan trend bullish jangka menengah, diikuti pola candle bullish hammer, sementara indikator ADX terkoreksi, stochastic flat, MACD masih bullish, mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas target 0.8450, selama di bawah 0.8130. Resistance di 0.8450/0.8500, support di 0.8180/0.8100. Hold Buy 0.8300 target 0.8450, sell 0.8450 target 0.8300 & sell break 0.8250 stop 0.8170. sell break 0.8000 target 0.7900. Buy 0.8180 target 0.8300.
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Wed Aug 12 09 07:18 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's fall from 72.84 is still in progress and further decline should now be seen towards 62.70 support after 69.70 was taken out. Nevertheless, as long as 62.70 holds, we'd still favor another rise that should eventually send crude oil through 73.38 resistance. Above 71.32 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside. However, note that break of 62.70 will in turn indicate that rise from 58.32 has completed and deeper fall should then be seen to retest this key near term support.
In the bigger picture, with crude oil staying inside medium term rising channel, we're still favoring the case that whole rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Hence, another rise rise towards 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 is in favor. But after all, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal finally. On the downside, break of 62.70 support will argue that crude oil has possibly topped out earlier than we thought and break of 58.32 support will now be an important signal that rise from 33.2 has completed.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's fall from 72.84 is still in progress and further decline should now be seen towards 62.70 support after 69.70 was taken out. Nevertheless, as long as 62.70 holds, we'd still favor another rise that should eventually send crude oil through 73.38 resistance. Above 71.32 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside. However, note that break of 62.70 will in turn indicate that rise from 58.32 has completed and deeper fall should then be seen to retest this key near term support.
In the bigger picture, with crude oil staying inside medium term rising channel, we're still favoring the case that whole rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Hence, another rise rise towards 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 is in favor. But after all, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal finally. On the downside, break of 62.70 support will argue that crude oil has possibly topped out earlier than we thought and break of 58.32 support will now be an important signal that rise from 33.2 has completed.
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Wed Aug 12 09 07:19 ET
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold edges lower today and at this, intraday bias remains mildly on the downside as long as 952.8 minor resistance holds. Recent developments suggests that rebound from 904.8 has completed at 974.3 already. Further decline is in favor to 927.6 support and then trend line at 920.1. On the upside, above 952.8 will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 974.3 and bring another decline.
In the bigger picture, we're preferring the case that price actions from 1007.7 are developing into consolidations to larger rally from 681, probably in form of triangle. Another down leg has possibly started at 974.3 and deeper decline could be seen to 904.8 support. But downside will likely be contained and the case of deep fall to 865 is not likely. In any case, break sustained break of 1007.7 resistance will indicate that whole rally from 681 has resumed and should target 1033.9 key resistance next.
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold edges lower today and at this, intraday bias remains mildly on the downside as long as 952.8 minor resistance holds. Recent developments suggests that rebound from 904.8 has completed at 974.3 already. Further decline is in favor to 927.6 support and then trend line at 920.1. On the upside, above 952.8 will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 974.3 and bring another decline.
In the bigger picture, we're preferring the case that price actions from 1007.7 are developing into consolidations to larger rally from 681, probably in form of triangle. Another down leg has possibly started at 974.3 and deeper decline could be seen to 904.8 support. But downside will likely be contained and the case of deep fall to 865 is not likely. In any case, break sustained break of 1007.7 resistance will indicate that whole rally from 681 has resumed and should target 1033.9 key resistance next.
S&P 500 Rally Reaching an End: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The “bear market” rally that has lifted the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index 47 percent since March 9 may be over, according to a technical analyst at Aurel bgc.
The S&P 500 may pass under an intermediate support of 992.50 points and then accelerate down toward the support of 969 in the coming trading sessions, Alexandre Le Drogoff, an analyst at Aurel in Paris, wrote in a note today. “We expect a progressive return to a down market,” he wrote.
The S&P 500 yesterday lost 1.3 percent to 994.35, its worst drop since July 7. The index broke the psychological key threshold of 1,000 points driven by a so-called black candle, a sign of negative sentiment, of 11 points, Le Drogoff wrote. The index last week rose above 1,000 for the first time since November, as better-than-estimated employment, manufacturing and home-sales data boosted confidence that the worst of the recession is ending.
The S&P 500 may pass under an intermediate support of 992.50 points and then accelerate down toward the support of 969 in the coming trading sessions, Alexandre Le Drogoff, an analyst at Aurel in Paris, wrote in a note today. “We expect a progressive return to a down market,” he wrote.
The S&P 500 yesterday lost 1.3 percent to 994.35, its worst drop since July 7. The index broke the psychological key threshold of 1,000 points driven by a so-called black candle, a sign of negative sentiment, of 11 points, Le Drogoff wrote. The index last week rose above 1,000 for the first time since November, as better-than-estimated employment, manufacturing and home-sales data boosted confidence that the worst of the recession is ending.
Treasury Yield Surge Is Poised to Pause: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The biggest weekly surge in Treasury 10-year yields in six years is going to pause, said Christopher Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., citing trading patterns.Yields will hover near 3.75 percent, versus today’s 3.67 percent, Rupkey said. The level represents a 50 percent retracement of the decline in yields that began in June 2007 and ended at a record low of 2.04 percent in December, he said.
“The bond market rout may not be over, but it looks like it might pause for awhile,” said Rupkey, who is based in New York for the unit of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan’s biggest bank. He sent his comments in an e-mail.
Ten-year yields climbed 37 basis points last week, the most since July 2003. They were as high as 3.89 percent on Aug. 10, the most in two months. The 3.125 percent security due May 2019 was little changed at 95 17/32 as of 11:32 a.m. today in Tokyo.
In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to predict changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Rupkey’s analysis is based on a sequence of numbers identified in the 13th century by Italian mathematician Leonardo da Pisa, known as Fibonacci. Yields need to move past one step in the series for the trend will carry over to the next.
“The bond market rout may not be over, but it looks like it might pause for awhile,” said Rupkey, who is based in New York for the unit of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan’s biggest bank. He sent his comments in an e-mail.
Ten-year yields climbed 37 basis points last week, the most since July 2003. They were as high as 3.89 percent on Aug. 10, the most in two months. The 3.125 percent security due May 2019 was little changed at 95 17/32 as of 11:32 a.m. today in Tokyo.
In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to predict changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Rupkey’s analysis is based on a sequence of numbers identified in the 13th century by Italian mathematician Leonardo da Pisa, known as Fibonacci. Yields need to move past one step in the series for the trend will carry over to the next.
Daily Technical Analysis Forex/DJIA/Gold
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by ecPulse.com
EURO
The Euro versus Dollar pair continued to trade within tight ranges between 1.4170 and 1.4110 with gradual tendency to form a contraction triangle, which supports our outlook to the downside on the intraday basis targeting 1.3950. Trading below 1.4225 is a must, to maintain the expected decline for today.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3945 and the key resistance at 1.4450 The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4720 remains intact with targets at 1.2120
Support: 1.4110, 1.4070, 1.4000, 1.3945, 1.3905
Resistance: 1.4175, 1.4225, 1.4275, 1.4330, 1.4385
Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is selling the pair from 1.4100 to 1.3945 and stop loss above 1.4175 might be appropriate.
GBP
The Cable attempted several times to retest the previously breached support level at 1.6500 yesterday, yet it failed to do so. This fluctuation resulted in the stochastic nearing overbought area, which supports our outlook to the downside on the intraday basis targeting 1.6335 and 1.6245 respectively, as far as 1.6530 remains intact.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.6115 and the key resistance at 1.6770 The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4840 remains intact with targets at 1.7100
Support: 1.6430, 1.6360, 1.6335, 1.6265, 1.6210
Resistance: 1.6505, 1.6570, 1.6605, 1.6685, 1.6740
Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is selling the pair from 1.6505 to 1.6335 and stop loss above 1.6590 might be appropriate
JPY
The USD/JPY pair declined yesterday, to return below the key resistance for the previously breached descending channel at 96.10, to keep the short term trend to the downside, especially after yesterday's closing below the mentioned level. We expect downside movements today targeting 94.05 and 93.15, but note that the pair is being oversold, as seen on the stochastic indicator, which may result in a slight correction to retest the 96.10 resistance level before reversing back to the downside. The 96.10 level must remain intact for the decline to prevail.The trading range for today is among the key support at 93.15 and the key resistance at 99.55
The general trend is to the downside as far 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60
Support: 94.60, 94.05, 93.70, 93.15, 92.75
Resistance: 96.10, 96.85, 97.30, 97.90, 98.55
Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is selling the pair from 95.95 to 94.05 and stop loss above 96.85 might be appropriate
CHF
The Dollar versus Swissy wasn't able to breach the key resistance at 1.0840, as it fluctuated heavily around the level with negative signs appearing on momentum indicators that may halt the awaited breach. We still believe the pair is to incline but all is needed is a four hour closing above the mentioned resistance, to open the way towards 1.1100. The 1.0710 must remain intact for the trend to remain to the upside. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0375 and the key resistance at 1.1100. The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact with targets at 1.2245.
Support: 1.0810, 1.0775, 1.0710, 1.0665, 1.0570
Resistance: 1.0890, 1.0935, 1.0980, 1.1050, 1.1100
Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is buying the pair from 1.0900 to 1.1100 and stop loss below 1.0810 might be appropriate.
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
Rupee: Rupee is expected to move close to 48.20-30 levels (slight weak) since dollar maintains momentum in international market.We would consider it as an opportunity to initiate short dollar positions.The Indian stocks has been relatively weak from the last few trading sessions. Please note if the dollar momentum continues and Indian stocks sell off pushes rupee above 48.60 we would consider medium term weakness to resume till then rupee maintains stronger bias. Neutral (USD/INR : 48.14).
Aud : Aud seems to be entering into correction mode lately .We have started witnessing sell off in commodity prices . It is bullish until we see a break below 0.7950. (AUD/USD -0.8245) In Correction Mode
Gold : Gold has also seen correction lately. Bullish only above 960 dollar otherwise rangebound. (Gold- $946.27). Rangebound
Dollar Index : The Dollar Index (basket against 6 currencies with EUR accounting for 57% of the basket) rebounded close to 77 levels. Expect retracement till 80 levels.Closing above 82 levels would change the bias of the index. (Dollar Index - 79.10) Neutral
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 9212.40 and 9202.50(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 9181.30, where correction also can be. Then follows 9154.46. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 9129.37. Continuation will bring 9113.50.
Today's resistance: - 9326.27, 9342.12 and 9360.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 9387.72, where a correction may happen. Then follows 9413.44, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 9438.65. Continuation would bring 9450.00 and 9469.68.
EURO
The Euro versus Dollar pair continued to trade within tight ranges between 1.4170 and 1.4110 with gradual tendency to form a contraction triangle, which supports our outlook to the downside on the intraday basis targeting 1.3950. Trading below 1.4225 is a must, to maintain the expected decline for today.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3945 and the key resistance at 1.4450 The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4720 remains intact with targets at 1.2120
Support: 1.4110, 1.4070, 1.4000, 1.3945, 1.3905
Resistance: 1.4175, 1.4225, 1.4275, 1.4330, 1.4385
Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is selling the pair from 1.4100 to 1.3945 and stop loss above 1.4175 might be appropriate.
GBP
The Cable attempted several times to retest the previously breached support level at 1.6500 yesterday, yet it failed to do so. This fluctuation resulted in the stochastic nearing overbought area, which supports our outlook to the downside on the intraday basis targeting 1.6335 and 1.6245 respectively, as far as 1.6530 remains intact.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.6115 and the key resistance at 1.6770 The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4840 remains intact with targets at 1.7100
Support: 1.6430, 1.6360, 1.6335, 1.6265, 1.6210
Resistance: 1.6505, 1.6570, 1.6605, 1.6685, 1.6740
Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is selling the pair from 1.6505 to 1.6335 and stop loss above 1.6590 might be appropriate
JPY
The USD/JPY pair declined yesterday, to return below the key resistance for the previously breached descending channel at 96.10, to keep the short term trend to the downside, especially after yesterday's closing below the mentioned level. We expect downside movements today targeting 94.05 and 93.15, but note that the pair is being oversold, as seen on the stochastic indicator, which may result in a slight correction to retest the 96.10 resistance level before reversing back to the downside. The 96.10 level must remain intact for the decline to prevail.The trading range for today is among the key support at 93.15 and the key resistance at 99.55
The general trend is to the downside as far 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60
Support: 94.60, 94.05, 93.70, 93.15, 92.75
Resistance: 96.10, 96.85, 97.30, 97.90, 98.55
Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is selling the pair from 95.95 to 94.05 and stop loss above 96.85 might be appropriate
CHF
The Dollar versus Swissy wasn't able to breach the key resistance at 1.0840, as it fluctuated heavily around the level with negative signs appearing on momentum indicators that may halt the awaited breach. We still believe the pair is to incline but all is needed is a four hour closing above the mentioned resistance, to open the way towards 1.1100. The 1.0710 must remain intact for the trend to remain to the upside. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0375 and the key resistance at 1.1100. The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact with targets at 1.2245.
Support: 1.0810, 1.0775, 1.0710, 1.0665, 1.0570
Resistance: 1.0890, 1.0935, 1.0980, 1.1050, 1.1100
Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is buying the pair from 1.0900 to 1.1100 and stop loss below 1.0810 might be appropriate.
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
Rupee: Rupee is expected to move close to 48.20-30 levels (slight weak) since dollar maintains momentum in international market.We would consider it as an opportunity to initiate short dollar positions.The Indian stocks has been relatively weak from the last few trading sessions. Please note if the dollar momentum continues and Indian stocks sell off pushes rupee above 48.60 we would consider medium term weakness to resume till then rupee maintains stronger bias. Neutral (USD/INR : 48.14).
Aud : Aud seems to be entering into correction mode lately .We have started witnessing sell off in commodity prices . It is bullish until we see a break below 0.7950. (AUD/USD -0.8245) In Correction Mode
Gold : Gold has also seen correction lately. Bullish only above 960 dollar otherwise rangebound. (Gold- $946.27). Rangebound
Dollar Index : The Dollar Index (basket against 6 currencies with EUR accounting for 57% of the basket) rebounded close to 77 levels. Expect retracement till 80 levels.Closing above 82 levels would change the bias of the index. (Dollar Index - 79.10) Neutral
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 9212.40 and 9202.50(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 9181.30, where correction also can be. Then follows 9154.46. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 9129.37. Continuation will bring 9113.50.
Today's resistance: - 9326.27, 9342.12 and 9360.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 9387.72, where a correction may happen. Then follows 9413.44, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 9438.65. Continuation would bring 9450.00 and 9469.68.
Annual Survey of Investment Asset Peformance for 2009
By: Michael_J_Kosares
Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe One-Year Survey - There is an old saying that in the land of the blind, the one-eyed jack is king. Similarly, in the land of little or no yield and plunging asset values, there is something to be said for that which holds its own, as gold did in USAGOLD's Annual Survey of Investments for 2009.
When viewing the chart, please keep in mind that it covers the 365 days from July through June. In years past, the midyear starting point for our survey has not provided any distinct advantage to our readers, but this year it happens to cover precisely what many believe to be the most destructive period in financial markets since the Great Depression. As a result, what you see here are the performance rankings for key investments since the full inception of the crisis during the summer of 2008. It was a very bad year for investors. Stocks and real estate fared miserably -- down 17.05% and 25.58% respectively. Those losses were based on averages. In some cases and locales, the losses were substantially worse. Gold stocks seemed to take their cue from the larger stock market (rather than gold itself) dropping 18.88%. The best places to be, other than the skyrocketing commodities complex (up 33.09%), were green (as in cash, cd's and Treasuries) and gold (as in coins and bullion). The trend was away from risk and toward safety. This year's successful investor kept in mind veteran market analyst Richard Russell's admonition: "In a secular bear market, he who loses least wins."
The Five-Year Survey
In the five-year survey, gold tops the rankings with a 113.8% return. Of its primary competitors only gold stocks and fine wine* mounted respectable challenges (up 68.5% and 112.86% respectively). Stocks (down 17.79%) and real estate (down 25.03%) were the big losers over the period. Diversification is the hallmark of the prudent investor, and the past five years have provided ample proof of the principle. A stock purchase of $100,000 in 2005 would have been worth $82,210 in 2009. By contrast, a $100,000 purchase of gold coins and bullion in 2005 would have been valued at $213,800 by 2009 -- a swing in net worth difficult to ignore.
Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe One-Year Survey - There is an old saying that in the land of the blind, the one-eyed jack is king. Similarly, in the land of little or no yield and plunging asset values, there is something to be said for that which holds its own, as gold did in USAGOLD's Annual Survey of Investments for 2009.
When viewing the chart, please keep in mind that it covers the 365 days from July through June. In years past, the midyear starting point for our survey has not provided any distinct advantage to our readers, but this year it happens to cover precisely what many believe to be the most destructive period in financial markets since the Great Depression. As a result, what you see here are the performance rankings for key investments since the full inception of the crisis during the summer of 2008. It was a very bad year for investors. Stocks and real estate fared miserably -- down 17.05% and 25.58% respectively. Those losses were based on averages. In some cases and locales, the losses were substantially worse. Gold stocks seemed to take their cue from the larger stock market (rather than gold itself) dropping 18.88%. The best places to be, other than the skyrocketing commodities complex (up 33.09%), were green (as in cash, cd's and Treasuries) and gold (as in coins and bullion). The trend was away from risk and toward safety. This year's successful investor kept in mind veteran market analyst Richard Russell's admonition: "In a secular bear market, he who loses least wins."
The Five-Year Survey
In the five-year survey, gold tops the rankings with a 113.8% return. Of its primary competitors only gold stocks and fine wine* mounted respectable challenges (up 68.5% and 112.86% respectively). Stocks (down 17.79%) and real estate (down 25.03%) were the big losers over the period. Diversification is the hallmark of the prudent investor, and the past five years have provided ample proof of the principle. A stock purchase of $100,000 in 2005 would have been worth $82,210 in 2009. By contrast, a $100,000 purchase of gold coins and bullion in 2005 would have been valued at $213,800 by 2009 -- a swing in net worth difficult to ignore.
Elliot Wave : US Dollar: Swing Point
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by TheLFB-Forex.com
Weekly chart trend: Long possibilities. Main price points: 77.43. Looking for: Move higher
On the weekly dollar index chart, the flat correction, shown in wave B position may already be completed as our red wave v hit the new lows in the past week. The blue wave B found the lows exactly at 61.8% retracement of wave A, which is a typical area for a turning point. Traders should be watching for at least three waves of a pull-back in the coming days and weeks, which should lead the prices up into around 82-83 zone.
Daily chart trend: Long. Main price points: 77.43. Looking for: Move higher
The dollar index has made a sharp turning point recently, which indicates a possible temporary dollar recovery over the next few days and weeks. We can clearly count five waves down from 89, black wave B) top to current 77.43, wave C) lows. Three waves are always expected once that prices have already broken through the upper line of a trading channel.
Weekly chart trend: Long possibilities. Main price points: 77.43. Looking for: Move higher
On the weekly dollar index chart, the flat correction, shown in wave B position may already be completed as our red wave v hit the new lows in the past week. The blue wave B found the lows exactly at 61.8% retracement of wave A, which is a typical area for a turning point. Traders should be watching for at least three waves of a pull-back in the coming days and weeks, which should lead the prices up into around 82-83 zone.
Daily chart trend: Long. Main price points: 77.43. Looking for: Move higher
The dollar index has made a sharp turning point recently, which indicates a possible temporary dollar recovery over the next few days and weeks. We can clearly count five waves down from 89, black wave B) top to current 77.43, wave C) lows. Three waves are always expected once that prices have already broken through the upper line of a trading channel.
Elliot Wave: Cable: Temporary Down-Trend
Weekly chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 1.3502, and 1.9336 Looking for: Wave 4).
Cable is in a very powerful recovery mode from the 1.3502 lows that were hit in January of 2009. Prices have already traded up to the 50% retracement area of the wave 3)/C distance where a temporary top could be placed for some time, if we consider a possible high of a red wave C/III. With this being said, traders should be patient as the market may react with a powerful turning point, if we consider that a top of wave 4) could also be the case. If that happens then wave 5) should follow lower.On the other hand, the market may also be trading at the start of a new uptrend that will lead into new highs, but in this case the A), B), C) (zig-zag with an extended wave C) ) will be the correct count from the 2.1161 high to 1.3502 low. A break of the 1.9336 area will confirm that scenario.
Daily chart trend: Short possibilities. Main price points: 1.5982 and 1.7041 Looking for: Move lower
The cable price looks to be toped at the 1.7041 area with a black wave V) of an extended red wave C/III. Prices fell very sharply from those highs to current level, which suggests a temporary down-trend. We notice that the market also broke through the black line connected from wave B/II and wave II) lows, which is another bearish signal for a possible 1.5982 zone test.
Cable is in a very powerful recovery mode from the 1.3502 lows that were hit in January of 2009. Prices have already traded up to the 50% retracement area of the wave 3)/C distance where a temporary top could be placed for some time, if we consider a possible high of a red wave C/III. With this being said, traders should be patient as the market may react with a powerful turning point, if we consider that a top of wave 4) could also be the case. If that happens then wave 5) should follow lower.On the other hand, the market may also be trading at the start of a new uptrend that will lead into new highs, but in this case the A), B), C) (zig-zag with an extended wave C) ) will be the correct count from the 2.1161 high to 1.3502 low. A break of the 1.9336 area will confirm that scenario.
Daily chart trend: Short possibilities. Main price points: 1.5982 and 1.7041 Looking for: Move lower
The cable price looks to be toped at the 1.7041 area with a black wave V) of an extended red wave C/III. Prices fell very sharply from those highs to current level, which suggests a temporary down-trend. We notice that the market also broke through the black line connected from wave B/II and wave II) lows, which is another bearish signal for a possible 1.5982 zone test.
Efficient Markets Hypothesis: Does The Theory Survive This Crisis?
By Bill Conerly on August 12, 2009
The efficient markets hypothesis, the bedrock of modern finance, is under attack due to - get this - irrational behavior. Believe it or not, it appears that some market participants behaved irrationally. So where does that evidence leave us?
What is the efficient markets hypothesis? The Wikipedia definition is pretty good:
“… the efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) asserts that financial markets are “informationally efficient”, or that prices on traded assets (e.g., stocks, bonds, or property) already reflect all known information, and instantly change to reflect new information.”
The implication of the efficient markets hypothesis is that trying to pick the best stocks or bonds will not do better than buying an index fund.There have been a number of anomalies reported that cast doubt on the efficient markets hypothesis. Most notably, the behavioral finance researchers have found plenty of biases in human decision-making. These include recency bias (a tendency to put greater weight on recent performance than it deserves), herd behavior (doing what everyone else is doing), and framing bias (in which risky bets to make a gain are shunned, but equally risky bets framed as avoiding a loss are embraced). The housing boom-bust, and the related booms-busts in mortgage-backed securities, reinforce the irrationality of much human decision-making.
But where does that leave us? The efficient markets hypothesis may be overstated, but what actionable consequences does that leave us with? The behavioral finance researchers have not presented a better way of estimating value than current prices. They have simply cautioned us that current prices are not terribly accurate estimators of value. Here are the lessons as I see them:
* To investors, buy and hold a diversified portfolio still looks to be the best strategya, but do not take long-run average returns to be accurate indicators of what you will actually earn over your holding period.
* For companies, be very suspicious of strategies based on the assumption that the company can predict prices better than the market can. (I once knew a mining executive who assumed that most of his gold production would be sold within 10 percent of market tops. Talk about hubris!)
These conclusions generalize. Even if a theory is found to be inaccurate in some regards, that does not imply that alternative behaviors are automatically proved to be optimal. For example, finding that the classical economic conditions of perfect competition are not met does not necessarily imply that our government’s intervention in the markets is optimal.
The efficient markets hypothesis, the bedrock of modern finance, is under attack due to - get this - irrational behavior. Believe it or not, it appears that some market participants behaved irrationally. So where does that evidence leave us?
What is the efficient markets hypothesis? The Wikipedia definition is pretty good:
“… the efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) asserts that financial markets are “informationally efficient”, or that prices on traded assets (e.g., stocks, bonds, or property) already reflect all known information, and instantly change to reflect new information.”
The implication of the efficient markets hypothesis is that trying to pick the best stocks or bonds will not do better than buying an index fund.There have been a number of anomalies reported that cast doubt on the efficient markets hypothesis. Most notably, the behavioral finance researchers have found plenty of biases in human decision-making. These include recency bias (a tendency to put greater weight on recent performance than it deserves), herd behavior (doing what everyone else is doing), and framing bias (in which risky bets to make a gain are shunned, but equally risky bets framed as avoiding a loss are embraced). The housing boom-bust, and the related booms-busts in mortgage-backed securities, reinforce the irrationality of much human decision-making.
But where does that leave us? The efficient markets hypothesis may be overstated, but what actionable consequences does that leave us with? The behavioral finance researchers have not presented a better way of estimating value than current prices. They have simply cautioned us that current prices are not terribly accurate estimators of value. Here are the lessons as I see them:
* To investors, buy and hold a diversified portfolio still looks to be the best strategya, but do not take long-run average returns to be accurate indicators of what you will actually earn over your holding period.
* For companies, be very suspicious of strategies based on the assumption that the company can predict prices better than the market can. (I once knew a mining executive who assumed that most of his gold production would be sold within 10 percent of market tops. Talk about hubris!)
These conclusions generalize. Even if a theory is found to be inaccurate in some regards, that does not imply that alternative behaviors are automatically proved to be optimal. For example, finding that the classical economic conditions of perfect competition are not met does not necessarily imply that our government’s intervention in the markets is optimal.
Laporan Fundamental & Rumor Emiten 12-08-2009
Darma Henwa Berpotensi Rp 300
HARGA saham PT Darma Henwa Tbk (DEWA) berpotensi menuju level Rp 300 dalam waktu dekat. Sumber Investor Daily mengungkapkan, perseroan akan menjadi kontraktor pertambangan emas di Newmont, menyusul langkah Bakrie dan PT Bumi Resources Tbk membeli saham Newmont.
Selain itu, kata dia, rencana perseroan mengembangkan bisnis baru tahun ini bakal mengerek harga DEWA. (jau)
Asing Minati Tunas Lampung
SAHAM PT Tunas Baru Lampung Tbk (TBLA) dikabarkan masuk radar investasi pemodal asing, seiring rencana perseroan membangun dermaga dan pabrik pengolahan CPO. Menurut sumber Investor Daily, merangkaknya harga CPO di pasar internasional menjadi momentum bagi asing untuk mengoleksi TBLA.
Apalagi, TBLA masuk dalam indeks saham komoditas global. Harga TBLA berpotensi mencapai level Rp 520.
Moodys NPL hantui perbankan Indonesia.
Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) pada perdagangan Rabu (12/8) diperkirakan masih berpotensi menguat. Saham dari Brup Bakrie dan berbasis perkebunan CPO akan menyokong penguatan bursa. Analis: Penguatan Dolar AS Tidak Akan Bertahan Lama. Ekspektasi pemulihan ekonomi Amerika Serikat (AS) mendongkrak nilai tukar dolar AS terhadap beberapa mata uang utama dunia.
hasil keputusan Mahkamah Konstitusi untuk perkara sengketa hasil Pemilihan Presiden 2009 (pukul 14.00 WIB)
Pemerintah masih memiliki 2 hari lagi untuk mengeksekusi siapa yang layak membeli saham 14% divestasi PT Newmont Nusa Tenggara (NNT). Untuk mengoptimalkan waktu tersisa, hari ini pemerintah kembali menjadwalkan rapat internal di kantor Sekretaris Negara (Sekneg). "Besok (hari ini) akan ada rapat di kantor Sekneg, yang akan hadir saya sendiri, Menteri ESDM, dan juga Menko," kata Menneg BUMN Sofyan Djalil kepada wartawan di Gedung Kementerian BUMN, Jakarta, Selasa (11/8) malam.
Duta Graha Rampungkan Proyek Rp 1 T.
PT Duta Graha Indah Tbk (DGIK) akan merampungkan pengerjaan proyek gedung senilai Rp 1 triliun tahun ini. Proyek itu diharapkan menjadi kontributor utama terhadap pendapatan konsolidasi perseroan.
Laba Katarina Tumbuh 192%
PT Katarina Utama Tbk (RINA) selama semester I-2009 membukukan laba bersih Rp 4,91 miliar, tumbuh 192% dibanding periode sama 2008 sebesar Rp 1,68 miliar.
Harga CPO Bisa Tembus US$ 1.000 per Ton
Harga minyak sawit mentah kembali merangkak naik. Ada dua faktor pemicunya: ekspektasi kenaikkan permintaan dan ramalan penurunan produksi CPO.
MNCN Uji Tuntas Perusahaan Incaran
PT Media Nusantara Citra Tbk ingin mengakuisisi salah satu perusahaan media di kawasan Asia. Saat ini, MNCN tengah melakukan uji tuntas akuisisi.
Analis: Penguatan Dolar AS Tidak Akan Bertahan Lama
Ekspektasi pemulihan ekonomi Amerika Serikat (AS) mendongkrak nilai tukar dolar AS terhadap beberapa mata uang utama dunia.
Citigroup: BI Masih Berpotensi Babat BI Rate lagi
Bank Indonesia (BI) kemungkinan akan memangkas suku bunga patokan (BI Rate) sekali lagi jika tren inflasi masih sama.
Morgan Stanley Upgrade saham CPO (AALI) dan regional menjadi overweight dari neutral.
Pemerintah masih memiliki 2 hari lagi untuk mengeksekusi siapa yang layak membeli saham 14% divestasi PT Newmont Nusa Tenggara (NNT). Untuk mengoptimalkan waktu tersisa, hari ini pemerintah kembali menjadwalkan rapat internal di kantor Sekretaris Negara (Sekneg). "Besok (hari ini) akan ada rapat di kantor Sekneg, yang akan hadir saya sendiri, Menteri ESDM, dan juga Menko," kata Menneg BUMN Sofyan Djalil kepada wartawan di Gedung Kementerian BUMN, Jakarta, Selasa (11/8) malam.
Laba Lonsum Merosot 40,73%
Pencapaian laba bersih PT PP London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk (Lonsum) di semester I-2008 turun 40,73% menjadi Rp 286,7 miliar, dari periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya yang sebesar Rp 483,73 miliar. Demikian disampaikan perseroan dalam publikasinya yang dikutip detikFinance , Rabu (12/8/2009).
www.strategydesk.co.id
www.harumdanaberjangka.co.id
www.universalbroker.co.id (Code TF)
HARGA saham PT Darma Henwa Tbk (DEWA) berpotensi menuju level Rp 300 dalam waktu dekat. Sumber Investor Daily mengungkapkan, perseroan akan menjadi kontraktor pertambangan emas di Newmont, menyusul langkah Bakrie dan PT Bumi Resources Tbk membeli saham Newmont.
Selain itu, kata dia, rencana perseroan mengembangkan bisnis baru tahun ini bakal mengerek harga DEWA. (jau)
Asing Minati Tunas Lampung
SAHAM PT Tunas Baru Lampung Tbk (TBLA) dikabarkan masuk radar investasi pemodal asing, seiring rencana perseroan membangun dermaga dan pabrik pengolahan CPO. Menurut sumber Investor Daily, merangkaknya harga CPO di pasar internasional menjadi momentum bagi asing untuk mengoleksi TBLA.
Apalagi, TBLA masuk dalam indeks saham komoditas global. Harga TBLA berpotensi mencapai level Rp 520.
Moodys NPL hantui perbankan Indonesia.
Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) pada perdagangan Rabu (12/8) diperkirakan masih berpotensi menguat. Saham dari Brup Bakrie dan berbasis perkebunan CPO akan menyokong penguatan bursa. Analis: Penguatan Dolar AS Tidak Akan Bertahan Lama. Ekspektasi pemulihan ekonomi Amerika Serikat (AS) mendongkrak nilai tukar dolar AS terhadap beberapa mata uang utama dunia.
hasil keputusan Mahkamah Konstitusi untuk perkara sengketa hasil Pemilihan Presiden 2009 (pukul 14.00 WIB)
Pemerintah masih memiliki 2 hari lagi untuk mengeksekusi siapa yang layak membeli saham 14% divestasi PT Newmont Nusa Tenggara (NNT). Untuk mengoptimalkan waktu tersisa, hari ini pemerintah kembali menjadwalkan rapat internal di kantor Sekretaris Negara (Sekneg). "Besok (hari ini) akan ada rapat di kantor Sekneg, yang akan hadir saya sendiri, Menteri ESDM, dan juga Menko," kata Menneg BUMN Sofyan Djalil kepada wartawan di Gedung Kementerian BUMN, Jakarta, Selasa (11/8) malam.
Duta Graha Rampungkan Proyek Rp 1 T.
PT Duta Graha Indah Tbk (DGIK) akan merampungkan pengerjaan proyek gedung senilai Rp 1 triliun tahun ini. Proyek itu diharapkan menjadi kontributor utama terhadap pendapatan konsolidasi perseroan.
Laba Katarina Tumbuh 192%
PT Katarina Utama Tbk (RINA) selama semester I-2009 membukukan laba bersih Rp 4,91 miliar, tumbuh 192% dibanding periode sama 2008 sebesar Rp 1,68 miliar.
Harga CPO Bisa Tembus US$ 1.000 per Ton
Harga minyak sawit mentah kembali merangkak naik. Ada dua faktor pemicunya: ekspektasi kenaikkan permintaan dan ramalan penurunan produksi CPO.
MNCN Uji Tuntas Perusahaan Incaran
PT Media Nusantara Citra Tbk ingin mengakuisisi salah satu perusahaan media di kawasan Asia. Saat ini, MNCN tengah melakukan uji tuntas akuisisi.
Analis: Penguatan Dolar AS Tidak Akan Bertahan Lama
Ekspektasi pemulihan ekonomi Amerika Serikat (AS) mendongkrak nilai tukar dolar AS terhadap beberapa mata uang utama dunia.
Citigroup: BI Masih Berpotensi Babat BI Rate lagi
Bank Indonesia (BI) kemungkinan akan memangkas suku bunga patokan (BI Rate) sekali lagi jika tren inflasi masih sama.
Morgan Stanley Upgrade saham CPO (AALI) dan regional menjadi overweight dari neutral.
Pemerintah masih memiliki 2 hari lagi untuk mengeksekusi siapa yang layak membeli saham 14% divestasi PT Newmont Nusa Tenggara (NNT). Untuk mengoptimalkan waktu tersisa, hari ini pemerintah kembali menjadwalkan rapat internal di kantor Sekretaris Negara (Sekneg). "Besok (hari ini) akan ada rapat di kantor Sekneg, yang akan hadir saya sendiri, Menteri ESDM, dan juga Menko," kata Menneg BUMN Sofyan Djalil kepada wartawan di Gedung Kementerian BUMN, Jakarta, Selasa (11/8) malam.
Laba Lonsum Merosot 40,73%
Pencapaian laba bersih PT PP London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk (Lonsum) di semester I-2008 turun 40,73% menjadi Rp 286,7 miliar, dari periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya yang sebesar Rp 483,73 miliar. Demikian disampaikan perseroan dalam publikasinya yang dikutip detikFinance , Rabu (12/8/2009).
www.strategydesk.co.id
www.harumdanaberjangka.co.id
www.universalbroker.co.id (Code TF)
AKsi Profit-Taking di IHSG Merupakan Peluang "Buy on Weakness" Saham Pilihan
Market Review
IHSG kembali ditutup menguat setelah sempat mencapai level tertinggi 13 bulan di 2,404 kemarin, berkat kenaikan saham perbankan dan perkebunan (harga CPO naik US$ 16.15/ton ke level US$ 684.34/ton kemarin), diikuti spekulasi di saham ANTM bahwa pemerintah secara terbuka mendukung pembelian 14% saham Newmont jatah tahun divestasi 2008-2009. Peran kenaikan indeks saham regional Asia berkat positifnya laporan dari Jepang dan China, ikut membantu angkat IHSG. Meski laju kenaikan IHSG dibatasi oleh aksi profit-taking di sejumlah saham Grup Bakrie yang telah menguat tajam dalam 2 pekan terakhir. IHSG naik 9.714 poin (+0.41%) ditutup di 2,399.276, dengan nilai transaksi Rp 7,87 triliun. Investor asing mencatat net selling Rp 13.373 miliar, dibandingkan net buy Rp 241,447 miliar hari Senin (10/08).
Indeks saham MSCI Asia-Pacific menguat untuk hari kedua, karena laporan earning dan brokerage upgrade, meningkatkan keyakinan bahwa keuntungan korporasi pulih dari resesi global. Laporan output industri, penjualan ritel China yang lebih baik dari perkiraan, meski terjadinya bencana angin topan dan gempa bumi di Jepang, tidak menahan laju kenaikan indeks saham regional Asia (termasuk Shanghai).
IHSG Outlook
Ind P/E (x)
EPS
Y/Y Y/Y Suku Bunga* Inflasi*
Y/Y GDP*
Y/Y
IHSG 16.5 8% +9.3% 6.50% 2.7% 4.0%
STI 22.0 16% -7.8% 0.69% -0.70% -10.1%
KLCI 14.9 10% +2.5% 2.0% 3.00% -6.2%
SET 13.5 4% -10.0% 1.25% -3.30% -7.10%
SSE 43.4 36% +15% 5.31% -1.40% 7.9%
N225 47.8 -1% -23.0% 0.10% -0.10% -9.7%
HSI 26.5 19% -8.6% 0.50% 0.60% -7.80%
DJIA 18.6 3% -15.2% 0.25% -1.4% -3.6%
* Negara Bersangkutan
Potensi kenaikan IHSG diperkirakan kian terbatas, karena kian dekatnya target teknikal di 2,425 dala kondisi overbought dan mahalnya valuasi IHSG dan saham unggulan terutama menjelang hasil keputusan Mahkamah Konstitusi untuk perkara sengketa hasil Pemilihan Presiden 2009 (pukul 14.00 WIB) dan pertemuan bank sentral AS yang dapat memberikan kejutan hari ini. Penurunan harga komoditi global (indeks Reuters/Jeffries CRB anjlok 0.03%; 264.46, minyak mentah $ -2.46; $68.91, nikel $ -560; $19.560) dan terkoreksinya saham Wall Street (berkat penurunan rating sejumlah saham di AS dan mahalnya valuasi indeks S&P 500) dapat memberikan sentimen negatif kepada saham domestik, terutama saham dari sektor pertambangan batubara dan logam. Pelemahan rupiah terhadap masih akan berlanjut karena imbas penguatan penguatan dolar AS terhadap majors, dapat memicu keluarnya hot money (sejak awal tahun hingga 6 Agustus 2009 sebesar US$ 1.01 miliar ke pasar saham), ikut membebani kinerja IHSG.
Sementara potensi penurunan IHSG dapat dibatasi oleh masih positifnya fundamental ekonomi RI dan emiten domestik di semester 1 2009 yang lebih baik dari perkiraan analis, isu positif dari emiten seperti ANTM berkat spekulasi pembelian saham Newmont, isu dari Grup Bakrie, Morgan Stanley upgrade saham CPO domestik (AALI), FREN berkat isu penjualan saham, right issue BLTA, analis asing masih upgrade saham lokal, dan sentimen positif dari isu pemulihan ekonomi global.
Stock Picks: Average last 7 week +54.39%. Target 10-20%, Risk < -10%
Hold Buy: BUMI/ELTY/ENRG/BNBR/DEWA/BTEL,HEXA,INKP,PTBA, KLBF,INCO,TINS,UNSP,SGRO,ADRO,BMRI,KIJA,PGAS,AKRA. BUY: ANTM, TRUB
Stock Picks:
• MAPI : Buy target Rp 600
• TBLA : Buy target Rp 450
Global Outlook
Indeks saham global diperkirakan akan mendapatkan hambatan untuk menguat lebih lanjut, berkat perkiraan aksi profit-taking menjelang pertemuan bank sentral AS hari ini (perkiraan: pertahankan suku bunga 0.0-0.25%, siap exit strategy untuk quantitative easing berkat perkiraan berakhirnya resesi ekonomi di tahun ini) dan munculnya sentimen negatif dari aksi analis yang memangkas rating emiten seperti Sprint Nextel Corp, MBIA Inc dan Yum! Brands Inc di tengah mahalnya valuasi indeks S&P 500 (PER 18.6x) dan kondisi teknikal yang overbought. Penurunan harga komoditi ikut membebani kinerja saham pertambangan dan energi global, setelah dolar AS menguat secara signifikan terhadap majors paska rilisan data tenaga kerja AS akhir pekan lalu. Meski indeks saham global masih mendapatkan support dari lebih baik dari perkiraan Non Farm Productivity Q2 (+6.4% dari 0.3% di Q1 2009), IBD Consumer Sentiment 50.3, Wholesales Inventory AS -1.7%, diikuti Industrial Output China 10.2%, Retail Sales 15.2%, positifnya earning semester 1 regional Asia dan AS.
Technical Analysis:
IHSG mendapatkan signal negatif dari pola candle hanging man yang merupakan indikasi bearish reversal (low relliability) dalam sebuah uptrend channel yang masih mendukung potensi kenaikan ke target 2,425 (76.4% FR 2838-1089),jika ditutup diatas level tersebut target berikutnya di 2,500 (projection 100.0%). Pola uptrend didukung indikator ADX yang trending up, stochastic dan MACD bullish dibayangi kondisi overbought, seharusnya masih mempertahankan pola uptrend selama ditutup harian diatas 2,307 (channel support). Hitungan Elliot Wave, IHSG masih berada dalam wave minor V (perkiraan peak di 2,425???) dalam extended motive wave 3) dalam siklus wave intermediate (4)/B.
Resistance: 2439.41/2422.38/2414.18/2405.97. PP 2388.33
Support : 2380.12/2371.92/2363.10/2354.27
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2,360 - 2,425)
IHSG kembali ditutup menguat setelah sempat mencapai level tertinggi 13 bulan di 2,404 kemarin, berkat kenaikan saham perbankan dan perkebunan (harga CPO naik US$ 16.15/ton ke level US$ 684.34/ton kemarin), diikuti spekulasi di saham ANTM bahwa pemerintah secara terbuka mendukung pembelian 14% saham Newmont jatah tahun divestasi 2008-2009. Peran kenaikan indeks saham regional Asia berkat positifnya laporan dari Jepang dan China, ikut membantu angkat IHSG. Meski laju kenaikan IHSG dibatasi oleh aksi profit-taking di sejumlah saham Grup Bakrie yang telah menguat tajam dalam 2 pekan terakhir. IHSG naik 9.714 poin (+0.41%) ditutup di 2,399.276, dengan nilai transaksi Rp 7,87 triliun. Investor asing mencatat net selling Rp 13.373 miliar, dibandingkan net buy Rp 241,447 miliar hari Senin (10/08).
Indeks saham MSCI Asia-Pacific menguat untuk hari kedua, karena laporan earning dan brokerage upgrade, meningkatkan keyakinan bahwa keuntungan korporasi pulih dari resesi global. Laporan output industri, penjualan ritel China yang lebih baik dari perkiraan, meski terjadinya bencana angin topan dan gempa bumi di Jepang, tidak menahan laju kenaikan indeks saham regional Asia (termasuk Shanghai).
IHSG Outlook
Ind P/E (x)
EPS
Y/Y Y/Y Suku Bunga* Inflasi*
Y/Y GDP*
Y/Y
IHSG 16.5 8% +9.3% 6.50% 2.7% 4.0%
STI 22.0 16% -7.8% 0.69% -0.70% -10.1%
KLCI 14.9 10% +2.5% 2.0% 3.00% -6.2%
SET 13.5 4% -10.0% 1.25% -3.30% -7.10%
SSE 43.4 36% +15% 5.31% -1.40% 7.9%
N225 47.8 -1% -23.0% 0.10% -0.10% -9.7%
HSI 26.5 19% -8.6% 0.50% 0.60% -7.80%
DJIA 18.6 3% -15.2% 0.25% -1.4% -3.6%
* Negara Bersangkutan
Potensi kenaikan IHSG diperkirakan kian terbatas, karena kian dekatnya target teknikal di 2,425 dala kondisi overbought dan mahalnya valuasi IHSG dan saham unggulan terutama menjelang hasil keputusan Mahkamah Konstitusi untuk perkara sengketa hasil Pemilihan Presiden 2009 (pukul 14.00 WIB) dan pertemuan bank sentral AS yang dapat memberikan kejutan hari ini. Penurunan harga komoditi global (indeks Reuters/Jeffries CRB anjlok 0.03%; 264.46, minyak mentah $ -2.46; $68.91, nikel $ -560; $19.560) dan terkoreksinya saham Wall Street (berkat penurunan rating sejumlah saham di AS dan mahalnya valuasi indeks S&P 500) dapat memberikan sentimen negatif kepada saham domestik, terutama saham dari sektor pertambangan batubara dan logam. Pelemahan rupiah terhadap masih akan berlanjut karena imbas penguatan penguatan dolar AS terhadap majors, dapat memicu keluarnya hot money (sejak awal tahun hingga 6 Agustus 2009 sebesar US$ 1.01 miliar ke pasar saham), ikut membebani kinerja IHSG.
Sementara potensi penurunan IHSG dapat dibatasi oleh masih positifnya fundamental ekonomi RI dan emiten domestik di semester 1 2009 yang lebih baik dari perkiraan analis, isu positif dari emiten seperti ANTM berkat spekulasi pembelian saham Newmont, isu dari Grup Bakrie, Morgan Stanley upgrade saham CPO domestik (AALI), FREN berkat isu penjualan saham, right issue BLTA, analis asing masih upgrade saham lokal, dan sentimen positif dari isu pemulihan ekonomi global.
Stock Picks: Average last 7 week +54.39%. Target 10-20%, Risk < -10%
Hold Buy: BUMI/ELTY/ENRG/BNBR/DEWA/BTEL,HEXA,INKP,PTBA, KLBF,INCO,TINS,UNSP,SGRO,ADRO,BMRI,KIJA,PGAS,AKRA. BUY: ANTM, TRUB
Stock Picks:
• MAPI : Buy target Rp 600
• TBLA : Buy target Rp 450
Global Outlook
Indeks saham global diperkirakan akan mendapatkan hambatan untuk menguat lebih lanjut, berkat perkiraan aksi profit-taking menjelang pertemuan bank sentral AS hari ini (perkiraan: pertahankan suku bunga 0.0-0.25%, siap exit strategy untuk quantitative easing berkat perkiraan berakhirnya resesi ekonomi di tahun ini) dan munculnya sentimen negatif dari aksi analis yang memangkas rating emiten seperti Sprint Nextel Corp, MBIA Inc dan Yum! Brands Inc di tengah mahalnya valuasi indeks S&P 500 (PER 18.6x) dan kondisi teknikal yang overbought. Penurunan harga komoditi ikut membebani kinerja saham pertambangan dan energi global, setelah dolar AS menguat secara signifikan terhadap majors paska rilisan data tenaga kerja AS akhir pekan lalu. Meski indeks saham global masih mendapatkan support dari lebih baik dari perkiraan Non Farm Productivity Q2 (+6.4% dari 0.3% di Q1 2009), IBD Consumer Sentiment 50.3, Wholesales Inventory AS -1.7%, diikuti Industrial Output China 10.2%, Retail Sales 15.2%, positifnya earning semester 1 regional Asia dan AS.
Technical Analysis:
IHSG mendapatkan signal negatif dari pola candle hanging man yang merupakan indikasi bearish reversal (low relliability) dalam sebuah uptrend channel yang masih mendukung potensi kenaikan ke target 2,425 (76.4% FR 2838-1089),jika ditutup diatas level tersebut target berikutnya di 2,500 (projection 100.0%). Pola uptrend didukung indikator ADX yang trending up, stochastic dan MACD bullish dibayangi kondisi overbought, seharusnya masih mempertahankan pola uptrend selama ditutup harian diatas 2,307 (channel support). Hitungan Elliot Wave, IHSG masih berada dalam wave minor V (perkiraan peak di 2,425???) dalam extended motive wave 3) dalam siklus wave intermediate (4)/B.
Resistance: 2439.41/2422.38/2414.18/2405.97. PP 2388.33
Support : 2380.12/2371.92/2363.10/2354.27
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2,360 - 2,425)
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Aksi Profit Taking Menjelang FOMC Meeting AS
Laporan Pasar Analisa Teknikal Grafik Teknikal
Nikkei Futures Kontrak September (SSIU9)
Indeks Nikkei mengakhiri perdagangan hari kedua pekan ini pada level tertinggi baru dalam 10 bulan terakhir, dipimpin saham konstruksi seperti Obayashi Corp, seiring bencana alam yang melanda Jepang. Sementara itu, kalangan analis mengatakan investor tidak banyak terpengaruh atas laporan dari keputusan Bank Sentral Jepang (BOJ) yang mempertahankan rate-nya 0,1% dan data ekonomi Cina. Indeks Nikkei .N225 ditutup menguat 61,20 poin, atau 0,58%, ke posisi 10.585,46.
Di chart daily, indeks mendapatkan signal positif dari pola candle bullish engulfing dalam uptrend channel, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi kenaikan lebih lanjut. Indikator masih mendukung potensi kenaikan ADX flat, stochastic overbought dan MACD bullish, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan hari ini. Resistance di 10645 (resistance channel)/10870). Support 10439 (123.6-day MA) /10303 (channel) suppotr). Perkiraan range hari ini 10450-10700. Rekomendasi Sell 10650 target 10350 stp 100p. Buy 10450 target 10650 stop 100p, Buy 10300 target 10650 stop 50p, sell break 10250 target 10000, sell 10800 target 10050.
Kospi Futures Kontrak September (KSU9)
Indeks Kospi masih stabil kemarin, berkat pembelian investor asing yang membantu pasar dan saham NHN Corp yang rally karena harapan diluncurkannya game online baru. Sementara itu, keputusan Bank Sentral Korea (BOK) yang mempertahankan rate di 2,0%, sudah diprediksikan pasar dan tidak banyak mempengaruhi pasar. Indeks Kospi ditutup naik 3,10 poin, atau 0,2%, ke posisi 1.579,21 poin.
Dalam chart daily, indeks masih berada dalam uptrend channel, meski menunjukkan signal bearish dari pola evening star yang merupakan potensi bearish reversal. Sementara kondisi stochastic overbought, MACD bullish dan ADX terkoreksi, seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan lebih lanjut. Resistance di 207.40/209.50 (upper channel). Support di 203.50/200.00. Rekomendasi Sell break 202 & 199.00 target 193.00 stop 100p, buy 199.50 target 203.50, buy 193.00 target 197.50 stop 100p. Buy break 206.60 target 209.50 stop 100p. Sell 209.50 & 211.50 target 205.50. Chart KSU9 Daily
Hang Seng Futures Kontrak Agustus (HSIQ9)
Indeks Hang Seng berhasil ditutup pada level 21.000, berkat reboundnya saham-saham Cina seiring positifnya serangkaian data ekonomi Cina. Sementara itu, saham-saham unggulan bersinar di tengah harapan solidnya pendapatan semester pertama. Indeks Hang Seng .HSI ditutup melonjak 144,69 poin, atau 0,69%, ke posisi 21.074,21, level tertinggi sejak September 2008.
Dalam chart daily, indeks kembali menunjukkan signal positif dari pola candle white closing meredam tekanan di tengah kondisi pasar yang overbought. Diartikan potensi kenaikan terbatas di tengah overboughtnya kondisi stochastic dan MACD, ADX terkoreksi, mendukung potensi kenaikan hari ini. Resistance di 21.158 (trendline)/21361. Support 20255 (channel support )/20532 (channel support). Hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan wave v extended dalam subwave motive (3) cycle B. Rekomendasi : Sell break 20250 target 19800 (or closing) stop 100 p. Buy 20350 target 20750 stop 100p. Buy 19.760 target 19500. Sell 21150 & 21350 target 20600 stop 100p. Buy 20600 & break 21200 target 21350 or closing stop 100p, sell 20650 target 20800 stop 150p.
www.strategydesk.co.id
www.harumdanaberjangka.co.id
Nikkei Futures Kontrak September (SSIU9)
Indeks Nikkei mengakhiri perdagangan hari kedua pekan ini pada level tertinggi baru dalam 10 bulan terakhir, dipimpin saham konstruksi seperti Obayashi Corp, seiring bencana alam yang melanda Jepang. Sementara itu, kalangan analis mengatakan investor tidak banyak terpengaruh atas laporan dari keputusan Bank Sentral Jepang (BOJ) yang mempertahankan rate-nya 0,1% dan data ekonomi Cina. Indeks Nikkei .N225 ditutup menguat 61,20 poin, atau 0,58%, ke posisi 10.585,46.
Di chart daily, indeks mendapatkan signal positif dari pola candle bullish engulfing dalam uptrend channel, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi kenaikan lebih lanjut. Indikator masih mendukung potensi kenaikan ADX flat, stochastic overbought dan MACD bullish, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan hari ini. Resistance di 10645 (resistance channel)/10870). Support 10439 (123.6-day MA) /10303 (channel) suppotr). Perkiraan range hari ini 10450-10700. Rekomendasi Sell 10650 target 10350 stp 100p. Buy 10450 target 10650 stop 100p, Buy 10300 target 10650 stop 50p, sell break 10250 target 10000, sell 10800 target 10050.
Kospi Futures Kontrak September (KSU9)
Indeks Kospi masih stabil kemarin, berkat pembelian investor asing yang membantu pasar dan saham NHN Corp yang rally karena harapan diluncurkannya game online baru. Sementara itu, keputusan Bank Sentral Korea (BOK) yang mempertahankan rate di 2,0%, sudah diprediksikan pasar dan tidak banyak mempengaruhi pasar. Indeks Kospi ditutup naik 3,10 poin, atau 0,2%, ke posisi 1.579,21 poin.
Dalam chart daily, indeks masih berada dalam uptrend channel, meski menunjukkan signal bearish dari pola evening star yang merupakan potensi bearish reversal. Sementara kondisi stochastic overbought, MACD bullish dan ADX terkoreksi, seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan lebih lanjut. Resistance di 207.40/209.50 (upper channel). Support di 203.50/200.00. Rekomendasi Sell break 202 & 199.00 target 193.00 stop 100p, buy 199.50 target 203.50, buy 193.00 target 197.50 stop 100p. Buy break 206.60 target 209.50 stop 100p. Sell 209.50 & 211.50 target 205.50. Chart KSU9 Daily
Hang Seng Futures Kontrak Agustus (HSIQ9)
Indeks Hang Seng berhasil ditutup pada level 21.000, berkat reboundnya saham-saham Cina seiring positifnya serangkaian data ekonomi Cina. Sementara itu, saham-saham unggulan bersinar di tengah harapan solidnya pendapatan semester pertama. Indeks Hang Seng .HSI ditutup melonjak 144,69 poin, atau 0,69%, ke posisi 21.074,21, level tertinggi sejak September 2008.
Dalam chart daily, indeks kembali menunjukkan signal positif dari pola candle white closing meredam tekanan di tengah kondisi pasar yang overbought. Diartikan potensi kenaikan terbatas di tengah overboughtnya kondisi stochastic dan MACD, ADX terkoreksi, mendukung potensi kenaikan hari ini. Resistance di 21.158 (trendline)/21361. Support 20255 (channel support )/20532 (channel support). Hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan wave v extended dalam subwave motive (3) cycle B. Rekomendasi : Sell break 20250 target 19800 (or closing) stop 100 p. Buy 20350 target 20750 stop 100p. Buy 19.760 target 19500. Sell 21150 & 21350 target 20600 stop 100p. Buy 20600 & break 21200 target 21350 or closing stop 100p, sell 20650 target 20800 stop 150p.
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Shanghai Composite to Extend Losing Streak: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- China’s Shanghai Composite Index may decline as much as 10 percent from yesterday’s close as the formation of a “double top” signaled further losses for the measure, according to DMG & Partners Securities Pte.The benchmark gauge fell for a fifth day today, its longest losing streak this year and trimming its annual gain to 77 percent. The index lost 0.7 percent to 3,227.89 at 10:54 a.m.
A so-called support level for the index may be found at 3,138, while “stronger support” exists at 2,928, James Lim, Singapore-based analyst at DMG, wrote in a report today.A “double top” is made up of two consecutive peaks that are approximately equal, with a moderate trough in between. This is seen by investors and analysts who study historical chart patterns as indicating a major reversal after an extended rally.
A so-called support level for the index may be found at 3,138, while “stronger support” exists at 2,928, James Lim, Singapore-based analyst at DMG, wrote in a report today.A “double top” is made up of two consecutive peaks that are approximately equal, with a moderate trough in between. This is seen by investors and analysts who study historical chart patterns as indicating a major reversal after an extended rally.
S&P 500 Drop Limited After ‘Breadth Thrust’: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Any decline in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index after a 49 percent rally from this year’s low may be “limited” as the surge triggered a so-called breadth thrust, technical analysts at Bank of America Corp. said.
A breadth thrust, which occurs when there’s a sharp move in a ratio based on a moving average of the number of advancing stocks in an index, indicates that a broad swathe of stocks have participated in the advance, according to analysts who use charts to predict price movements.
The S&P 500 increased to the highest level since October on Aug. 7, completing a four-week gain after better-than-estimated earnings at companies from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to Johnson & Johnson and stabilizing economic data boosted confidence the worst of the recession is ending. The benchmark index for U.S. equities may retreat by a “modest” 15 percent to 20 percent after the rally ends, analysts Mary Ann Bartels and Stephen Suttmeier wrote in a report today.
“Based on prior periods, corrections should be limited after a breadth thrust,” the analysts wrote. “We are expecting a fall correction, but we view a correction as part of the basebuilding process.”
A breadth thrust, which occurs when there’s a sharp move in a ratio based on a moving average of the number of advancing stocks in an index, indicates that a broad swathe of stocks have participated in the advance, according to analysts who use charts to predict price movements.
The S&P 500 increased to the highest level since October on Aug. 7, completing a four-week gain after better-than-estimated earnings at companies from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to Johnson & Johnson and stabilizing economic data boosted confidence the worst of the recession is ending. The benchmark index for U.S. equities may retreat by a “modest” 15 percent to 20 percent after the rally ends, analysts Mary Ann Bartels and Stephen Suttmeier wrote in a report today.
“Based on prior periods, corrections should be limited after a breadth thrust,” the analysts wrote. “We are expecting a fall correction, but we view a correction as part of the basebuilding process.”
OPEC to Keep Output Unchanged, Merrill’s Blanch Says
(Bloomberg) -- The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will probably keep output levels unchanged when it meets next month, according to Francisco Blanch, head of global commodity research at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch.
“OPEC probably stays put and that continues to keep upward pressure on prices,” Blanch said in a Bloomberg Television interview today. “Certainly no more production cuts at this stage, no more are necessary.”
OPEC, responsible for about 40 percent of global supply, is due to meet in Vienna on Sept. 9 to review output targets. Crude futures, trading around $70 a barrel, are close to levels many OPEC ministers have identified as sufficient to ensure adequate revenue and investment in future supply.
Demand for crude, while “still very damaged” in Europe and “very, very weak” in the U.S. because of the recession, continues to grow in emerging markets such as China, Blanch said.
“OPEC probably stays put and that continues to keep upward pressure on prices,” Blanch said in a Bloomberg Television interview today. “Certainly no more production cuts at this stage, no more are necessary.”
OPEC, responsible for about 40 percent of global supply, is due to meet in Vienna on Sept. 9 to review output targets. Crude futures, trading around $70 a barrel, are close to levels many OPEC ministers have identified as sufficient to ensure adequate revenue and investment in future supply.
Demand for crude, while “still very damaged” in Europe and “very, very weak” in the U.S. because of the recession, continues to grow in emerging markets such as China, Blanch said.
Palm Oil Stocks are ‘Attractive,’ Morgan Stanley Says
(Bloomberg) -- PT Astra Agro Lestari and Golden Agri-Resources Ltd. were among palm-oil stocks that were rated “overweight” in new coverage at Morgan Stanley, which said the industry is “attractive” given the outlook for prices.
The brokerage also initiated coverage of Indofood Agri Resources Ltd. and Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd. with “overweight” recommendations. It has an “equal-weight” rating for Sime Darby Bhd. and an “underweight” rating for IOI Corp. Golden Agri led gains by most of the shares, surging 11 percent at 12:28 p.m. in Singapore.
Palm oil prices may rise to $800 a ton in 2010, given the use of existing stockpiles, prices of soybean and rapeseed oil, and the prospects of an El Nino weather pattern occurring, Morgan Stanley said. October-delivery palm oil traded at 2,394 ringgit ($681) on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange today.
The “upside is in the upstream, as high crude palm oil prices favor this segment most directly,” Morgan Stanley analysts Conrad Werner and Miang Chuen Koh wrote in a report today. “We also see upstream cost pressures easing in the second half of 2009, mainly on the fertilizer side.”
Astra Agro, Indonesia’s biggest plantation stock, rose 4.3 percent to 22,000 rupiah, poised for the highest close in more than a year. Golden Agri, the world’s second-biggest palm oil producer, jumped 11 percent to 47 Singapore cents, while Indofood Agri gained 8.6 percent to S$1.65. Kuala Lumpur Kepong climbed 0.8 percent to 12.80 ringgit, while Sime Darby and IOI were little changed.
The brokerage also initiated coverage of Indofood Agri Resources Ltd. and Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd. with “overweight” recommendations. It has an “equal-weight” rating for Sime Darby Bhd. and an “underweight” rating for IOI Corp. Golden Agri led gains by most of the shares, surging 11 percent at 12:28 p.m. in Singapore.
Palm oil prices may rise to $800 a ton in 2010, given the use of existing stockpiles, prices of soybean and rapeseed oil, and the prospects of an El Nino weather pattern occurring, Morgan Stanley said. October-delivery palm oil traded at 2,394 ringgit ($681) on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange today.
The “upside is in the upstream, as high crude palm oil prices favor this segment most directly,” Morgan Stanley analysts Conrad Werner and Miang Chuen Koh wrote in a report today. “We also see upstream cost pressures easing in the second half of 2009, mainly on the fertilizer side.”
Astra Agro, Indonesia’s biggest plantation stock, rose 4.3 percent to 22,000 rupiah, poised for the highest close in more than a year. Golden Agri, the world’s second-biggest palm oil producer, jumped 11 percent to 47 Singapore cents, while Indofood Agri gained 8.6 percent to S$1.65. Kuala Lumpur Kepong climbed 0.8 percent to 12.80 ringgit, while Sime Darby and IOI were little changed.
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Tue Aug 11 09 06:01 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Consolidation in range of 69.70 and 72.84 continues and intraday outlook in crude oil remains neutral for the moment. Note that below 69.70 will turn intraday bias to the downside for deeper pull back. But after all, we'd expect downside to be contained above 62.70 and bring another rise that eventually send crude oil above 73.38 level. On the upside, sustained break of 73.36/38 key resistance level (100% projection of 58.32 to 68.99 from 62.7 at 73.36) will confirm rally resumption towards 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77.
In the bigger picture, with crude oil staying inside medium term rising channel, we're still favoring the case that whole rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Hence, another rise rise towards 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 is expected. But after all, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal finally. On the downside, break of 62.70 support will argue that crude oil has possibly topped out earlier than we thought and break of 58.32 support will now be an important signal that rise from 33.2 has completed.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Consolidation in range of 69.70 and 72.84 continues and intraday outlook in crude oil remains neutral for the moment. Note that below 69.70 will turn intraday bias to the downside for deeper pull back. But after all, we'd expect downside to be contained above 62.70 and bring another rise that eventually send crude oil above 73.38 level. On the upside, sustained break of 73.36/38 key resistance level (100% projection of 58.32 to 68.99 from 62.7 at 73.36) will confirm rally resumption towards 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77.
In the bigger picture, with crude oil staying inside medium term rising channel, we're still favoring the case that whole rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Hence, another rise rise towards 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 is expected. But after all, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal finally. On the downside, break of 62.70 support will argue that crude oil has possibly topped out earlier than we thought and break of 58.32 support will now be an important signal that rise from 33.2 has completed.
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Tue Aug 11 09 06:02 ET
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's break of 953 support serves as the first signal that whole rebound from 904.8 has completed at 974.3 already. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for 927.6 support first and break will target lower trend line support in triangle pattern at 919.4 next. On the upside, above 959.5 minor resistance will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring consolidation. But recovery should be limited below 974.3 and bring another decline.
In the bigger picture, we're preferring the case that price actions from 1007.7 are developing into consolidations to larger rally from 681, probably in form of triangle. Another down leg has possibly started at 974.3 and deeper decline could be seen to 904.8 support. But downside will likely be contained and the case of deep fall to 865 is not likely. In any case, break sustained break of 1007.7 resistance will indicate that whole rally from 681 has resumed and should target 1033.9 key resistance next.
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's break of 953 support serves as the first signal that whole rebound from 904.8 has completed at 974.3 already. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for 927.6 support first and break will target lower trend line support in triangle pattern at 919.4 next. On the upside, above 959.5 minor resistance will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring consolidation. But recovery should be limited below 974.3 and bring another decline.
In the bigger picture, we're preferring the case that price actions from 1007.7 are developing into consolidations to larger rally from 681, probably in form of triangle. Another down leg has possibly started at 974.3 and deeper decline could be seen to 904.8 support. But downside will likely be contained and the case of deep fall to 865 is not likely. In any case, break sustained break of 1007.7 resistance will indicate that whole rally from 681 has resumed and should target 1033.9 key resistance next.
Stock Market Investing, Is Buy and Hold Back?
By: Joseph_Russo
Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHop on board or you’ll miss the train
Our trusted shepherds of illusion would like nothing more than to ignite another round of buy & hold fever as the only means by which participants can hope to survive in the speculative buying frenzy that has occurred in equity markets since the March low. Thus far, the measured results of their handiwork have them grinning ear to ear.
When it comes to stocks, buying panics without limit are good and encouraged, while selling panics cause crisis and the threat of systemic collapse. Speculation, which drives Oil prices to stellar heights, is bad, but speculation driving equity prices to unsustainable extremes is good. It is asinine to pick systemic winners and promote their upside into perpetuity and then to enact emergency fascist interventions to save such systems of monopoly when systemically encouraged price bubbles inevitably burst.
Perspectives in Trend
In lieu of our customary “Markets at a Glance” medley, this week we are going to take a close look at the Dow in various timeframes. We start by examining a daily price chart of Dow, which reflects the sudden V-shaped surge in bullish optimism from the March low.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 9270.00, 9258.73, 9235.25 and 9202.50(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 9181.30, where correction also can be. Then follows 9154.46. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 9129.37. Continuation will bring 9113.50. Today's resistance: - 9360.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 9387.72, where a correction may happen. Then follows 9413.44, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 9438.65. Continuation would bring 9450.00 and 9469.68
Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHop on board or you’ll miss the train
Our trusted shepherds of illusion would like nothing more than to ignite another round of buy & hold fever as the only means by which participants can hope to survive in the speculative buying frenzy that has occurred in equity markets since the March low. Thus far, the measured results of their handiwork have them grinning ear to ear.
When it comes to stocks, buying panics without limit are good and encouraged, while selling panics cause crisis and the threat of systemic collapse. Speculation, which drives Oil prices to stellar heights, is bad, but speculation driving equity prices to unsustainable extremes is good. It is asinine to pick systemic winners and promote their upside into perpetuity and then to enact emergency fascist interventions to save such systems of monopoly when systemically encouraged price bubbles inevitably burst.
Perspectives in Trend
In lieu of our customary “Markets at a Glance” medley, this week we are going to take a close look at the Dow in various timeframes. We start by examining a daily price chart of Dow, which reflects the sudden V-shaped surge in bullish optimism from the March low.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 9270.00, 9258.73, 9235.25 and 9202.50(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 9181.30, where correction also can be. Then follows 9154.46. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 9129.37. Continuation will bring 9113.50. Today's resistance: - 9360.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 9387.72, where a correction may happen. Then follows 9413.44, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 9438.65. Continuation would bring 9450.00 and 9469.68
Elliott Wave Theory Suggests Bearish Outlook for Silver
By: Alistair_Gilbert
Commodities
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSilver was decimated in last year’s market rout falling by over 80% in just seven months. Part of the reason is that it is not just bought for investment or jewellery purposes but is an industrial metal as well. Most people think of its industrial use in photography, but in fact it has myriad uses in the medical field because of its antibacterial qualities and more recently in creating superfibres for the clothing industry.
Polyester starts life as grain alcohol and, flowing over silver, is converted into ethylene oxide, the man-made fibre’s building block. Warm polyester fibre clothing -- which in the coldest weather wicks moisture away to keep the wearer dry -- is sweeping the outdoor clothing industry. It’s uses in electronics are well known as it is one of the best conductors of electricity. Many of you may already own American Silver Eagles.
Since their introduction in 1986, American Eagles have become a leading silver bullion coin investment product with more than 180 million one-ounce coins sold.
Yet despite the fact that much of the silver used is recycled again, it has been running a mining deficit for 15 years now. That means that global consumption has exceeded that mined for the last 15 years. So why has the price not exploded? I think it soon will. Silver’s Bull market started in 2001 when it bottomed at $4.04 and at its peak last year it hit $21.35. That is a rise of 528% in seven years. I think that it will do that again in the next seven years. If we look at the quarterly chart below, we have only completed Major Wave 1 (and probably seen the low point of Major
Commodities
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSilver was decimated in last year’s market rout falling by over 80% in just seven months. Part of the reason is that it is not just bought for investment or jewellery purposes but is an industrial metal as well. Most people think of its industrial use in photography, but in fact it has myriad uses in the medical field because of its antibacterial qualities and more recently in creating superfibres for the clothing industry.
Polyester starts life as grain alcohol and, flowing over silver, is converted into ethylene oxide, the man-made fibre’s building block. Warm polyester fibre clothing -- which in the coldest weather wicks moisture away to keep the wearer dry -- is sweeping the outdoor clothing industry. It’s uses in electronics are well known as it is one of the best conductors of electricity. Many of you may already own American Silver Eagles.
Since their introduction in 1986, American Eagles have become a leading silver bullion coin investment product with more than 180 million one-ounce coins sold.
Yet despite the fact that much of the silver used is recycled again, it has been running a mining deficit for 15 years now. That means that global consumption has exceeded that mined for the last 15 years. So why has the price not exploded? I think it soon will. Silver’s Bull market started in 2001 when it bottomed at $4.04 and at its peak last year it hit $21.35. That is a rise of 528% in seven years. I think that it will do that again in the next seven years. If we look at the quarterly chart below, we have only completed Major Wave 1 (and probably seen the low point of Major
SPX Post Crash Pattern Same as Nikkei, History Repeating
By: Captain_Hook
Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJust about everybody has heard the truisms ‘history repeats’, and if this is not true ‘history rhymes’, however it’s been my observation that a far as present day stock market participants are concerned, not many take the validity of these statements as seriously as they should. After all, people are people right, even if they were acting in the context of another era, and in this case, other market bubbles. This is the important understanding that many are missing you see, that people are no different in the way they react to extreme market conditions (stress) today than they were during previous post crash episodes, including those that inspired Charles Mackay to pen the timeless Extraordinary Popular Delusions And The Madness Of Crowds all those years ago now.
The following is an excerpt from commentary that originally appeared at Treasure Chests for the benefit of subscribers on Tuesday, July 28th, 2009.
And while exact details and patterns can for the most part only rhyme in full measure, without a doubt this is one of those instances where you do want to ‘sweat the small stuff’, because in doing so one would be missing close enough approximations to model future trading decisions on that have proven very profitable indeed. Or at a minimum, such information, if believed, could have prevented trading losses for those who attempted to capitalize on the recently foiled head and shoulders pattern that characterized the major averages. Many unknowing speculators attempted to do so and lost money, which is of course common when trades get crowded in mature markets. The markets become like casinos you see, with the house (knowledgeable speculators) having the advantage.
Now you might be thinking I am referring to the boys down at Goldman Sachs here, where as mentioned the other day it appears they front run the Uncle Sam accounts so that when they are executing the bureaucracy’s wishes, they make big profits in the process. But no, I am not referring to these guys as being knowledgeable speculators. If left out of the bureaucracy’s loop, these guys would likely loose money, as it’s probably been ‘too easy for too long’ being plugged into the information pipeline from Washington. No, I am referring to you and me, guys who do our homework, and stay sharp, as it’s the laws of the jungle for everybody else outside of the loop.
Along these lines, and in following up on which historical pattern would dominate from last week, it appears the winner was Figure 2, courtesy of continued gains in the stock market. And as you will see below, if we see more gains this week (and possibly next), which appears likely at this point, then, as opposed to history simply rhyming in this case, we could have an exact pattern match between the S&P 500 (SPX) and post crash pattern of the Nikki measured in calendar days. What’s more, and to frame this in the proper context as per above, it appears in terms of the high degree events we are working with these days, history is repeating right on schedule if that’s possible, making our job as speculators far easier in terms of positioning decisions. (See Figure 1)
Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJust about everybody has heard the truisms ‘history repeats’, and if this is not true ‘history rhymes’, however it’s been my observation that a far as present day stock market participants are concerned, not many take the validity of these statements as seriously as they should. After all, people are people right, even if they were acting in the context of another era, and in this case, other market bubbles. This is the important understanding that many are missing you see, that people are no different in the way they react to extreme market conditions (stress) today than they were during previous post crash episodes, including those that inspired Charles Mackay to pen the timeless Extraordinary Popular Delusions And The Madness Of Crowds all those years ago now.
The following is an excerpt from commentary that originally appeared at Treasure Chests for the benefit of subscribers on Tuesday, July 28th, 2009.
And while exact details and patterns can for the most part only rhyme in full measure, without a doubt this is one of those instances where you do want to ‘sweat the small stuff’, because in doing so one would be missing close enough approximations to model future trading decisions on that have proven very profitable indeed. Or at a minimum, such information, if believed, could have prevented trading losses for those who attempted to capitalize on the recently foiled head and shoulders pattern that characterized the major averages. Many unknowing speculators attempted to do so and lost money, which is of course common when trades get crowded in mature markets. The markets become like casinos you see, with the house (knowledgeable speculators) having the advantage.
Now you might be thinking I am referring to the boys down at Goldman Sachs here, where as mentioned the other day it appears they front run the Uncle Sam accounts so that when they are executing the bureaucracy’s wishes, they make big profits in the process. But no, I am not referring to these guys as being knowledgeable speculators. If left out of the bureaucracy’s loop, these guys would likely loose money, as it’s probably been ‘too easy for too long’ being plugged into the information pipeline from Washington. No, I am referring to you and me, guys who do our homework, and stay sharp, as it’s the laws of the jungle for everybody else outside of the loop.
Along these lines, and in following up on which historical pattern would dominate from last week, it appears the winner was Figure 2, courtesy of continued gains in the stock market. And as you will see below, if we see more gains this week (and possibly next), which appears likely at this point, then, as opposed to history simply rhyming in this case, we could have an exact pattern match between the S&P 500 (SPX) and post crash pattern of the Nikki measured in calendar days. What’s more, and to frame this in the proper context as per above, it appears in terms of the high degree events we are working with these days, history is repeating right on schedule if that’s possible, making our job as speculators far easier in terms of positioning decisions. (See Figure 1)
