(Bloomberg) -- Strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and UBS AG raised their forecasts for European stock indexes as the economy recovers from the deepest recession since World War II and earnings improve. Goldman Sachs lifted its year-end estimate for the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index to 260 from 235, while UBS’s Nick Nelson increased his target for the FTSEurofirst 300 Index to 1,100 from 1,000.
The Stoxx 600 has rallied 47 percent since March 9 as the German and French economies unexpectedly expanded and earnings at companies from L’Oreal SA to Roche Holding AG spurred speculation the worst of the recession is over. The FTSEurofirst 300 has climbed 46 percent in the same period. “While we agree that the market tends to make its strongest returns while the economy is still contracting, albeit at a slowing rate, it tends to make further gains as the economy begins to expand,” a team of Goldman Sachs strategists led by Peter Oppenheimer in London wrote in a report dated yesterday.
UBS upgraded its 2010 earnings-per-share forecast for the region to an increase of 25 percent from a 15 percent gain. Analysts expect earnings for companies in the Stoxx 600 to grow 5.8 percent in 2009 and 28 percent next year, estimates compiled by Bloomberg show.
‘Turning Point’
“The macro data continue to give us confidence that we have hit the turning point for earnings momentum,” UBS’s Nelson wrote in a report today. “Given our view on the bounce back in earnings growth next year and increasing conviction that the economic cycle has turned, we feel the fundamental backdrop remains supportive.”
Goldman Sachs upgraded its recommendation on banks to a “modest overweight” from “neutral” and lifted the construction and materials and food and beverage industries to “neutral” from “underweight.” The firm cut its ratings on utilities and technology companies to “neutral” from “overweight.” Goldman said it maintains a “broadly cyclical bias,” preferring shares that are more linked to economic growth.
Saturday, September 5, 2009
Friday, September 4, 2009
U.S. Dollar Will Weaken, Currency Crash Possible, Roubini Says
(Bloomberg) -- The dollar will weaken and the U.S. risks seeing a crash of the currency unless it does more to control the deficit and reduce debt, said New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the financial crisis.“If markets were to believe, and I’m not saying it’s likely, that inflation is going to be the route that the U.S. is going to take to resolve this problem, then you could have a crash of the value of the dollar,” Roubini said in an interview today in Cernobbio, Italy. “The value of the dollar over time has to fall on a trade-weighted basis, but not necessarily relative to euro and yen.”Roubini said he didn’t see a risk of a dollar crash in the “‘short term.”
The value of the U.S. currency relative to currencies such as the yen or the euro “cannot change too much compared to current levels because if the dollar were to weaken a lot and the euro strengthen a lot, that’s going to warp any chance for the European economy to recover, same argument as to the yen,” he said.“Most of the adjustment of the dollar in the future has to occur relative to China, relative to emerging Asia and relative to some of the other commodity exporters in the world, whether these are advanced economies or emerging markets,” he said.Foreign creditors need assurances that the U.S. will address its deficit, Roubini said.
“Unless in the medium term these issues of fiscal sustainability are addressed, and unless we mop up that excess liquidity from the financial system, eventually the financial markets and the foreign creditors of the United States might get more concerned about the sustainability of the U.S. fiscal deficit and about the U.S. being tempted to use the inflation tax as a way of resolving its private and public debt problems,” he said.
The value of the U.S. currency relative to currencies such as the yen or the euro “cannot change too much compared to current levels because if the dollar were to weaken a lot and the euro strengthen a lot, that’s going to warp any chance for the European economy to recover, same argument as to the yen,” he said.“Most of the adjustment of the dollar in the future has to occur relative to China, relative to emerging Asia and relative to some of the other commodity exporters in the world, whether these are advanced economies or emerging markets,” he said.Foreign creditors need assurances that the U.S. will address its deficit, Roubini said.
“Unless in the medium term these issues of fiscal sustainability are addressed, and unless we mop up that excess liquidity from the financial system, eventually the financial markets and the foreign creditors of the United States might get more concerned about the sustainability of the U.S. fiscal deficit and about the U.S. being tempted to use the inflation tax as a way of resolving its private and public debt problems,” he said.
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Fri Sep 04 09 07:02 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil continues to struggle around near term trend line support and stays in tight range above 67.43. Intraday outlook remains neutral and some more sideway trading might be seen. Nevertheless, another fall is still in favor as long as 71.60 minor resistance holds. Below 67.43 will target 65.23 support next. As discussed before, sustained trading below near term trend line will affirm the case that whole rise from 58.32 has indeed ended at 75.0 already. Break of 65.23 will confirm and target 58.32 support next. On the upside, above 71.60 will flip intraday bias back to the upside for a test on 75.0 again and probably bring rally resumption to next long term fibonacci resistance at 76.77 (38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2).
In the bigger picture, there is no change in the view that rise from 33.2 is a correction to whole down trend form 147.27. Hence, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) and bring reversal finally. On the downside, break of 65.23 support will now be an important signal that crude oil has already topped out and will turn focus back to 58.32 key support for confirmation.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil continues to struggle around near term trend line support and stays in tight range above 67.43. Intraday outlook remains neutral and some more sideway trading might be seen. Nevertheless, another fall is still in favor as long as 71.60 minor resistance holds. Below 67.43 will target 65.23 support next. As discussed before, sustained trading below near term trend line will affirm the case that whole rise from 58.32 has indeed ended at 75.0 already. Break of 65.23 will confirm and target 58.32 support next. On the upside, above 71.60 will flip intraday bias back to the upside for a test on 75.0 again and probably bring rally resumption to next long term fibonacci resistance at 76.77 (38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2).
In the bigger picture, there is no change in the view that rise from 33.2 is a correction to whole down trend form 147.27. Hence, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) and bring reversal finally. On the downside, break of 65.23 support will now be an important signal that crude oil has already topped out and will turn focus back to 58.32 key support for confirmation.
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Fri Sep 04 09 07:03 ET
Comex Gold (GC)
The sharp rise in gold extended further to as high as 999.5 before retreating mildly. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 982 minor support holds and further rise should be seen to 1007.7 resistance first and than 1033.9 high. On the downside, below 982 will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring consolidation. But retreat should be contained above 959.2 support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, the breakout from triangle consolidation indicates that rise from 681 has resumed. As such rise is treated as resumption of long term up trend, 1033.9 high should be taken out in near term to extend the up trend to 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2 next. On the downside, break of 931.3 is needed to invalidate the above view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.
Comex Gold (GC)
The sharp rise in gold extended further to as high as 999.5 before retreating mildly. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 982 minor support holds and further rise should be seen to 1007.7 resistance first and than 1033.9 high. On the downside, below 982 will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring consolidation. But retreat should be contained above 959.2 support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, the breakout from triangle consolidation indicates that rise from 681 has resumed. As such rise is treated as resumption of long term up trend, 1033.9 high should be taken out in near term to extend the up trend to 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2 next. On the downside, break of 931.3 is needed to invalidate the above view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.
S&P 500: A September Stock Market Outlook
By Hans Wagner on September 4, 2009 | More Posts By Hans Wagner | Author's Website
The upper trend continues to offer resistance as Thursday’s action shows. Volume has picked up slightly in the last few days. I expect we will trade sideways for the rest of the week as we enter September and the Labor Day holiday. While September is known as a historically poor month for the market, it seems everyone is now focused on this potential event. All this attention means tends to indicate the event might not happen at all. However, we will get a better idea when the pros return after Labor Day. We just have to be patient.The RSI is below 50, a sign of a down trend. The MACD turned down through the 9-day moving average, giving a sell sign. The Slow Stochastic is above 80, where it will eventually turn down giving a sell signal.
We have experienced a 50% rise in the S&P 500 (^GSPC: 1003.24 0.00 0.00%) since early March without a significant move down. That in itself is an unusual action. Based on a variety of factors, including the ones presented here, I am expecting a move down that will begin in the next several weeks.
Link to current version of the chart prices: S&P 500 6-month chart.
The 60-minute 3-month S&P 500 shows how a rising wedge, a bearish formation worked as expected. The lower rising trend failed as the price fell through the support level. We might get a back test of the lower rising trend, which will give us an opportunity to add further down side protection.The RSI is below 50, a sign of a downtrend. The MACD is near a low point where it will turn up giving a buy sign. The Slow Stochastic is below 20, where it will turn up giving a buy sign. These buy signs might lead to the back test mentioned earlier.We received a short-term sell signal, though I do not believe this is the beginning of a big move down. More likely, we will see brief pullbacks and then small rallies as the trend goes sideways for this week.
Bond traders are often considered better investors than those trading stocks. Many stock traders monitor what bond traders are doing to help them understand what risks they might be facing.Rates fell again Thursday as bond prices rose again. They are testing the 119-resistance area. If they break through, it is one more sign that some investors are moving their money into bonds to reduce their risk in case we see a move down in the markets.
The upper trend continues to offer resistance as Thursday’s action shows. Volume has picked up slightly in the last few days. I expect we will trade sideways for the rest of the week as we enter September and the Labor Day holiday. While September is known as a historically poor month for the market, it seems everyone is now focused on this potential event. All this attention means tends to indicate the event might not happen at all. However, we will get a better idea when the pros return after Labor Day. We just have to be patient.The RSI is below 50, a sign of a down trend. The MACD turned down through the 9-day moving average, giving a sell sign. The Slow Stochastic is above 80, where it will eventually turn down giving a sell signal.
We have experienced a 50% rise in the S&P 500 (^GSPC: 1003.24 0.00 0.00%) since early March without a significant move down. That in itself is an unusual action. Based on a variety of factors, including the ones presented here, I am expecting a move down that will begin in the next several weeks.
Link to current version of the chart prices: S&P 500 6-month chart.
The 60-minute 3-month S&P 500 shows how a rising wedge, a bearish formation worked as expected. The lower rising trend failed as the price fell through the support level. We might get a back test of the lower rising trend, which will give us an opportunity to add further down side protection.The RSI is below 50, a sign of a downtrend. The MACD is near a low point where it will turn up giving a buy sign. The Slow Stochastic is below 20, where it will turn up giving a buy sign. These buy signs might lead to the back test mentioned earlier.We received a short-term sell signal, though I do not believe this is the beginning of a big move down. More likely, we will see brief pullbacks and then small rallies as the trend goes sideways for this week.
Bond traders are often considered better investors than those trading stocks. Many stock traders monitor what bond traders are doing to help them understand what risks they might be facing.Rates fell again Thursday as bond prices rose again. They are testing the 119-resistance area. If they break through, it is one more sign that some investors are moving their money into bonds to reduce their risk in case we see a move down in the markets.
S&P 500 Short Straddle Still Hugging 1000 Level
By Bill Luby on September 4, 2009 | More Posts By Bill Luby | Author's Website
In many respects the ultimate pure play on declining volatility is a short straddle in which near the money puts and calls are sold simultaneously in hopes that the underlying will move very little prior to expiration. While this is largely a neutral directional bet, it is also a bet on declining volatility.Two weeks ago today, in The Sideways Play, I outlined some of the logic and details behind what a short straddle trade would look like with the S&P 500 (SPX) (^GSPC: 1003.24 0.00 0.00%) at 1004. Two weeks later, with the SPX down a little more than five points, this trade is a winner. This trade is profiting from time decay (theta), which is currently at -1.20, meaning that all else being equal (i.e., if price, implied volatility and interest rates do not change), the position will gain $120 per day.
Of course, the other variables that affect the price of an option are in motion as well. Options traders use options Greeks to measure an option’s sensitivity to various influences on the value of that option, including the price of the underlying, the volatility of the underlying, time and interest rates.Specific to the SPX short straddle, the increase in implied volatility (^VIX: 27.10 0.00 0.00%) over the course of the past few days has worked against the options position. The Greek which measures an option’s sensitivity to changes in implied volatility is vega (not a Greek letter, but one that is counted as a ‘Greek’ according to options tradition), which estimates the change in value of an option that would result from a 1% change in the implied volatility of the underlying. In the two weeks, the VIX has increased 2.30 points and as the SPX straddle currently has a vega of 1.61, this means that the 2.30 point rise in the VIX has cost the position approximately $370 during the ten trading days.
While there are other factors at work on this short straddle trade, so far the main plot line has been a story of theta vs. vega, with time decay winning out.
The graphic below shows that a position which originally yielded $5000 in premium can now be bought back for $3510, which would lock in a profit of $1490. With the options expiring two weeks from tomorrow and time decay beginning to accelerate as we approach expiration, it will be interesting to see how this short straddle plays out.
In many respects the ultimate pure play on declining volatility is a short straddle in which near the money puts and calls are sold simultaneously in hopes that the underlying will move very little prior to expiration. While this is largely a neutral directional bet, it is also a bet on declining volatility.Two weeks ago today, in The Sideways Play, I outlined some of the logic and details behind what a short straddle trade would look like with the S&P 500 (SPX) (^GSPC: 1003.24 0.00 0.00%) at 1004. Two weeks later, with the SPX down a little more than five points, this trade is a winner. This trade is profiting from time decay (theta), which is currently at -1.20, meaning that all else being equal (i.e., if price, implied volatility and interest rates do not change), the position will gain $120 per day.
Of course, the other variables that affect the price of an option are in motion as well. Options traders use options Greeks to measure an option’s sensitivity to various influences on the value of that option, including the price of the underlying, the volatility of the underlying, time and interest rates.Specific to the SPX short straddle, the increase in implied volatility (^VIX: 27.10 0.00 0.00%) over the course of the past few days has worked against the options position. The Greek which measures an option’s sensitivity to changes in implied volatility is vega (not a Greek letter, but one that is counted as a ‘Greek’ according to options tradition), which estimates the change in value of an option that would result from a 1% change in the implied volatility of the underlying. In the two weeks, the VIX has increased 2.30 points and as the SPX straddle currently has a vega of 1.61, this means that the 2.30 point rise in the VIX has cost the position approximately $370 during the ten trading days.
While there are other factors at work on this short straddle trade, so far the main plot line has been a story of theta vs. vega, with time decay winning out.
The graphic below shows that a position which originally yielded $5000 in premium can now be bought back for $3510, which would lock in a profit of $1490. With the options expiring two weeks from tomorrow and time decay beginning to accelerate as we approach expiration, it will be interesting to see how this short straddle plays out.
Don’t Be So Sure. Things Aren’t Exactly ‘Normal’ In The Stock Market
By Investmentscore on September 3, 2009 | More Posts By Investmentscore | Author's Website
Starting in late 2007 and through 2008 a historic, worldwide market crash brought some of the largest corporations in the world to their knees. Between bankruptcies and bailouts, many massive financial institutions have been struggling simply to keep alive. Trillion dollar currency markets have been thrashing up and down like penny stocks. The largest housing bubble in history has popped with governments intervening and thereby prolonging the effects. Worldwide trillions of dollars in market equity has been lost.
So the critical questions we ask ourselves are:
1. Is it realistic to think that the effects of these types of devastating events will be resolved in a matter of months? We don’t think so.
2. Knowing that markets do not move up or down in a straight line, does it seem logical that the markets are now off to a new long term bull market; or could they be experiencing a temporary bounce? We think that history would suggest a bounce.
3. Given the huge amount of volatility in the market, does it make sense that in the short term many good indicators such as seasonal trends could be less reliable?
We think so.
We believe commodities are in a long term bull market and therefore we look for lower risk opportunities to add to our positions. Based on seasonal trends we have typically added to our precious metal positions in the summer and fall months as we did last November. We have heard many analysts suggesting that seasonal trends are once again in the investors favor, but given the circumstances, we are proceeding with caution.Because of the historic drop in all markets we predicted that this summer’s seasonal trends would be different than most years and instead of a falling market we would see a rising market. The following chart illustrates the monthly percentage gains of the Dow Jones Industrial Average compared to an average of the monthly percentage gains over the last eight years.
As you can see in the chart above, which is based on the past four years of data averaged together, the typical weak summer months of July and August were very strong in 2009. This year the seasonal trends are different, showing a mega bounce which followed a mega drop. In other words the pure power of the markets momentum trumped the power of the typical seasonal trends. Our next chart illustrates how big that mega bounce has been since February of this year.Based on the last eight years of monthly Dow Jones Industrial Average data averaged together, the above chart helps illustrate just how big the market bounce has been since February. Similar to a rubber band being stretched, when the market fell hard and fast over 2008, it was inevitable that a snapback rally, like the one we are seeing today, would follow. It is this momentum driven bounce that we believe is taking the market higher rather than fundamental influences such as seasonal trends. Once again we can visually see how the markets momentum, in this situation, is much more important than seasonal influences.
We are not suggesting that prices within the Dow Jones and other markets cannot head higher from the date of this article. In fact it would not surprise us if the markets in general started a new drop now or if it continued to climb until March 2010. However, it is our opinion that the fundamental problems within the US and around the world are monumentally big and we believe the recent worldwide market drops are evidence of that.
We do not believe such massive imbalances can be quickly resolved and we do not believe the typical seasonal patterns are as reliable this year as they have been in the past.
Anything can happen in the markets and we cannot guarantee that the US markets are going to test or possibly break through their old lows in the not too distant future. Unfortunately we do not have a crystal ball. However, we do not think these markets are off to another long term bull market and we are very skeptical that this potential bounce will last too much longer.
Starting in late 2007 and through 2008 a historic, worldwide market crash brought some of the largest corporations in the world to their knees. Between bankruptcies and bailouts, many massive financial institutions have been struggling simply to keep alive. Trillion dollar currency markets have been thrashing up and down like penny stocks. The largest housing bubble in history has popped with governments intervening and thereby prolonging the effects. Worldwide trillions of dollars in market equity has been lost.
So the critical questions we ask ourselves are:
1. Is it realistic to think that the effects of these types of devastating events will be resolved in a matter of months? We don’t think so.
2. Knowing that markets do not move up or down in a straight line, does it seem logical that the markets are now off to a new long term bull market; or could they be experiencing a temporary bounce? We think that history would suggest a bounce.
3. Given the huge amount of volatility in the market, does it make sense that in the short term many good indicators such as seasonal trends could be less reliable?
We think so.
We believe commodities are in a long term bull market and therefore we look for lower risk opportunities to add to our positions. Based on seasonal trends we have typically added to our precious metal positions in the summer and fall months as we did last November. We have heard many analysts suggesting that seasonal trends are once again in the investors favor, but given the circumstances, we are proceeding with caution.Because of the historic drop in all markets we predicted that this summer’s seasonal trends would be different than most years and instead of a falling market we would see a rising market. The following chart illustrates the monthly percentage gains of the Dow Jones Industrial Average compared to an average of the monthly percentage gains over the last eight years.
As you can see in the chart above, which is based on the past four years of data averaged together, the typical weak summer months of July and August were very strong in 2009. This year the seasonal trends are different, showing a mega bounce which followed a mega drop. In other words the pure power of the markets momentum trumped the power of the typical seasonal trends. Our next chart illustrates how big that mega bounce has been since February of this year.Based on the last eight years of monthly Dow Jones Industrial Average data averaged together, the above chart helps illustrate just how big the market bounce has been since February. Similar to a rubber band being stretched, when the market fell hard and fast over 2008, it was inevitable that a snapback rally, like the one we are seeing today, would follow. It is this momentum driven bounce that we believe is taking the market higher rather than fundamental influences such as seasonal trends. Once again we can visually see how the markets momentum, in this situation, is much more important than seasonal influences.
We are not suggesting that prices within the Dow Jones and other markets cannot head higher from the date of this article. In fact it would not surprise us if the markets in general started a new drop now or if it continued to climb until March 2010. However, it is our opinion that the fundamental problems within the US and around the world are monumentally big and we believe the recent worldwide market drops are evidence of that.
We do not believe such massive imbalances can be quickly resolved and we do not believe the typical seasonal patterns are as reliable this year as they have been in the past.
Anything can happen in the markets and we cannot guarantee that the US markets are going to test or possibly break through their old lows in the not too distant future. Unfortunately we do not have a crystal ball. However, we do not think these markets are off to another long term bull market and we are very skeptical that this potential bounce will last too much longer.
Elliot Wave: Oil; Trend line Tests
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by TheLFB-Forex.com
Oil; Trend line Tests
4 Hour chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 65.22, and 74.90. Looking for: Reaction around the trend-line
The 76.4% Fibonacci support held quite well in the last few sessions in our wave B), which means that higher, red wave C) of a second zig-zag, is still possible. At that moment, traders should be watching very closely for the price reaction around the trend-line that may react as good resistance. In this case, we believe that wave C) will not happen, since prices may easily fall through critical 65.22 support area.
Oil; Trend line Tests
4 Hour chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 65.22, and 74.90. Looking for: Reaction around the trend-line
The 76.4% Fibonacci support held quite well in the last few sessions in our wave B), which means that higher, red wave C) of a second zig-zag, is still possible. At that moment, traders should be watching very closely for the price reaction around the trend-line that may react as good resistance. In this case, we believe that wave C) will not happen, since prices may easily fall through critical 65.22 support area.
Daily FX * DJIA Technical Analysis
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank
EURUSD
Comment: Very dreary though still consolidating at the upper edge of the range that has held since late May. The Euro is no longer overbought and momentum is just bullish. We feel that the long term trend to US dollar weakness will resume, if not this month then in October.Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.4255; stop below 1.4085. Short term target 1.4350, then 1.4445.Direction of Trade: →Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.4235 " 1.4295
1.4177 1.4328
1.411 1.435
1.4085 1.4448**
1.4045* 1.45
GBPUSD
Comment: Rallying quietly to the upper edge of a thin Ichimoku 'cloud' and there is a small chance that Cable may try and hold above the top of this formation though moving averages do not confirm.Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6345; stop well below 1.6100. First target 1.6380/1.6400, then 1.6600.Direction of Trade: →Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.6304 " 1.6382
1.628 1.6415
1.6237 1.65
1.615 1.658
1.6100* 1.6665
USDJPY
Comment: Bouncing slowly from a low at 91.94 yesterday, ahead of July's low at 91.73. With a little luck the nine-day moving average will again limit highs leading to a concerted downside test late today. A break below 91.50, possibly with a gap lower over the weekend, should see implied at-the-money volatility increase significantly and increasing bearish momentum.Strategy: Sell at 92.60, adding to 93.00; stop above 93.55. Short term target 92.00/91.75 with moves below here likely to becoming increasingly erratic.
Direction of Trade: → Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
92.50 " 92.79
91.94 93.06
91.88/91.73* 93.55
91.5 94.08
90.85* 95.07
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 9270.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 9244.50, where correction also can be. Then follows 9233.25. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 9202.50. Continuation will bring 9182.30 and 9163.12.Today's resistance: - 9360.00 and 9415.30(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 9452.81, where a correction may happen. Then follows 9489.37, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 9516.10. Continuation would bring 9543.62 and 9588.80.
EURUSD
Comment: Very dreary though still consolidating at the upper edge of the range that has held since late May. The Euro is no longer overbought and momentum is just bullish. We feel that the long term trend to US dollar weakness will resume, if not this month then in October.Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.4255; stop below 1.4085. Short term target 1.4350, then 1.4445.Direction of Trade: →Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.4235 " 1.4295
1.4177 1.4328
1.411 1.435
1.4085 1.4448**
1.4045* 1.45
GBPUSD
Comment: Rallying quietly to the upper edge of a thin Ichimoku 'cloud' and there is a small chance that Cable may try and hold above the top of this formation though moving averages do not confirm.Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6345; stop well below 1.6100. First target 1.6380/1.6400, then 1.6600.Direction of Trade: →Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.6304 " 1.6382
1.628 1.6415
1.6237 1.65
1.615 1.658
1.6100* 1.6665
USDJPY
Comment: Bouncing slowly from a low at 91.94 yesterday, ahead of July's low at 91.73. With a little luck the nine-day moving average will again limit highs leading to a concerted downside test late today. A break below 91.50, possibly with a gap lower over the weekend, should see implied at-the-money volatility increase significantly and increasing bearish momentum.Strategy: Sell at 92.60, adding to 93.00; stop above 93.55. Short term target 92.00/91.75 with moves below here likely to becoming increasingly erratic.
Direction of Trade: → Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
92.50 " 92.79
91.94 93.06
91.88/91.73* 93.55
91.5 94.08
90.85* 95.07
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 9270.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 9244.50, where correction also can be. Then follows 9233.25. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 9202.50. Continuation will bring 9182.30 and 9163.12.Today's resistance: - 9360.00 and 9415.30(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 9452.81, where a correction may happen. Then follows 9489.37, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 9516.10. Continuation would bring 9543.62 and 9588.80.
Rupiah Set for Weekly & Monthly Loss Versus Dollar
Rupiah Weakens
Indonesia’s rupiah fell, headed for a third weekly loss, as overseas investors pared holdings of the nation’s stocks on concern the global economic recovery will be slow to take hold.The rupiah is poised for its biggest weekly decline in more than two months even as the government yesterday raised its economic growth target for next year and the central bank halted interest-rate cuts for the first time in 10 months. The Jakarta Composite Index slumped 2.3 percent since the end of last week.“The rupiah has been slipping in the past few weeks as the sell-off in stocks and bonds led to some moderation of inflows,” said Peter Redward, head of Asian emerging-markets research at Barclays Plc in Singapore. “The equity market is still trying to adjust its pricing of growth expectations which I think is quite underestimated.”
The rupiah dropped 0.3 percent to 10,145 per dollar, taking the loss this week to 0.9 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The rupiah may approach a range between 9,500 and 9,700 by year-end, according to Redward. The Dollar Index, which the ICE uses to track the dollar against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners including the euro, was at 78.403 from 78.437 yesterday.
Indonesia’s rupiah fell, headed for a third weekly loss, as overseas investors pared holdings of the nation’s stocks on concern the global economic recovery will be slow to take hold.The rupiah is poised for its biggest weekly decline in more than two months even as the government yesterday raised its economic growth target for next year and the central bank halted interest-rate cuts for the first time in 10 months. The Jakarta Composite Index slumped 2.3 percent since the end of last week.“The rupiah has been slipping in the past few weeks as the sell-off in stocks and bonds led to some moderation of inflows,” said Peter Redward, head of Asian emerging-markets research at Barclays Plc in Singapore. “The equity market is still trying to adjust its pricing of growth expectations which I think is quite underestimated.”
The rupiah dropped 0.3 percent to 10,145 per dollar, taking the loss this week to 0.9 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The rupiah may approach a range between 9,500 and 9,700 by year-end, according to Redward. The Dollar Index, which the ICE uses to track the dollar against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners including the euro, was at 78.403 from 78.437 yesterday.
Hong Kong Stocks in ‘Genuine Consolidation’: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong stocks are set for “genuine consolidation” since rallying from their March lows because the city’s benchmark indexes have moved below their upward-trending 50-day moving averages, according to Sun Hung Kai Securities Ltd.
“After ongoing declines, overall turnover still hasn’t shown signs of recovery,” Castor Pang, a Hong Kong-based strategist at Sun Hung Kai Securities Ltd., wrote in a report. “It seems to reflect investors don’t have a favorable view for the market going forward. It is believed that the market will keep on getting worse.”Shares worth HK$62.4 billion ($8.1 billion) changed hands daily on average since the benchmark Hang Seng Index reached its high for the year on Aug. 11. That’s lower than the average HK$72.2 billion a day between the start of the second half and the August peak, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
The index closed at 19,761.68 yesterday. It dropped to 19,522 on Sept. 2, below its 50-day moving average that day of 19,538.73.“Given the long-term uptrend that we’ve seen since March has been broken, I’d expect the Hang Seng to approach 19,200 in the coming two weeks,” Pang said in a phone interview. Once reaching that level, the measure will then rebound, with a resistance level at 20,000, he said.Moving averages are an indicator watched by some technical traders. They show the average value of a security or commodity over time and are useful for observing trends. Technical traders monitor patterns on daily charts for clues to price direction, and may sell or buy based on those signals.
Stimulus Measures
The Hang Seng Index has risen 74 percent from a four-month low on March 9 amid speculation stimulus efforts worldwide, including 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) of spending in China, will revive global growth. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks so-called H shares of Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, has surged 74 percent from March 2, when it closed at a more than three-month low.Those gains have been pared in the past month, with the Hang Seng Index and H-share index losing 5 percent and 7.6 percent respectively amid concerns about the strength of China’s economic growth.Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao warned last month that the authorities can’t be “blindly” optimistic as the decline in external demand may continue, while the country’s banks have reined in lending to avert asset bubbles.
“After ongoing declines, overall turnover still hasn’t shown signs of recovery,” Castor Pang, a Hong Kong-based strategist at Sun Hung Kai Securities Ltd., wrote in a report. “It seems to reflect investors don’t have a favorable view for the market going forward. It is believed that the market will keep on getting worse.”Shares worth HK$62.4 billion ($8.1 billion) changed hands daily on average since the benchmark Hang Seng Index reached its high for the year on Aug. 11. That’s lower than the average HK$72.2 billion a day between the start of the second half and the August peak, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
The index closed at 19,761.68 yesterday. It dropped to 19,522 on Sept. 2, below its 50-day moving average that day of 19,538.73.“Given the long-term uptrend that we’ve seen since March has been broken, I’d expect the Hang Seng to approach 19,200 in the coming two weeks,” Pang said in a phone interview. Once reaching that level, the measure will then rebound, with a resistance level at 20,000, he said.Moving averages are an indicator watched by some technical traders. They show the average value of a security or commodity over time and are useful for observing trends. Technical traders monitor patterns on daily charts for clues to price direction, and may sell or buy based on those signals.
Stimulus Measures
The Hang Seng Index has risen 74 percent from a four-month low on March 9 amid speculation stimulus efforts worldwide, including 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) of spending in China, will revive global growth. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks so-called H shares of Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, has surged 74 percent from March 2, when it closed at a more than three-month low.Those gains have been pared in the past month, with the Hang Seng Index and H-share index losing 5 percent and 7.6 percent respectively amid concerns about the strength of China’s economic growth.Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao warned last month that the authorities can’t be “blindly” optimistic as the decline in external demand may continue, while the country’s banks have reined in lending to avert asset bubbles.
Gold Index Rally Signals More Gains to Come: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index is signaling that some bullion producers will extend gains after all 16 companies in the index rose yesterday, according to WJB Capital Group Inc. The cumulative advance-decline line for companies in the index set a record as the benchmark of precious metal miners’ shares climbed 8.6 percent to the highest since June 4 yesterday, John Roque, managing director in technical analysis at WJB in New York, said in a report. The line represents the number of daily gains for stocks in the index minus the number of declines since the beginning of 2001.“The new high in breadth is a positive divergence and implies that many of the stocks in the index should follow,” Roque wrote. Roque was one of two runners-up in the technical analysis category in Institutional Investor magazine’s 2008 ranking of the top three analysts in each field. Technical analysts make predictions based on price and volume charts.
A positive divergence occurs when the cumulative advance- decline line makes a new high before the index itself reaches one, the report said. The Philadelphia mining index rose 5.1 percent to 164.89 as of 1:17 p.m. in New York, the highest since Aug. 1, 2008.The biggest increase since March in the price of gold futures spurred yesterday’s advance by the mining index. Gold for December delivery climbed 2.2 percent to $978.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange as slumping global equity markets and a drop in the value of the dollar boosted demand for precious metals.
Barrick, Agnico, Kinross
Stocks in the index that may rise the most include Barrick Gold Corp., Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd., Kinross Gold Corp. and Rubicon Minerals Corp., the report said.Gold itself, which is 0.7 percent below its record price of $1,004.30 in March 2008, compares favorably with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index by historical standards, Roque said. Since 1928, the price of gold has averaged 1.5 times the level of the main benchmark for American equities, and the ratio has peaked at levels 2.7 times to 6 times the level of the index, he said.The price of gold currently is about even with the level of the S&P 500, down from 1.4 times in March, when the stock index fell to a 12-year low.
A positive divergence occurs when the cumulative advance- decline line makes a new high before the index itself reaches one, the report said. The Philadelphia mining index rose 5.1 percent to 164.89 as of 1:17 p.m. in New York, the highest since Aug. 1, 2008.The biggest increase since March in the price of gold futures spurred yesterday’s advance by the mining index. Gold for December delivery climbed 2.2 percent to $978.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange as slumping global equity markets and a drop in the value of the dollar boosted demand for precious metals.
Barrick, Agnico, Kinross
Stocks in the index that may rise the most include Barrick Gold Corp., Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd., Kinross Gold Corp. and Rubicon Minerals Corp., the report said.Gold itself, which is 0.7 percent below its record price of $1,004.30 in March 2008, compares favorably with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index by historical standards, Roque said. Since 1928, the price of gold has averaged 1.5 times the level of the main benchmark for American equities, and the ratio has peaked at levels 2.7 times to 6 times the level of the index, he said.The price of gold currently is about even with the level of the S&P 500, down from 1.4 times in March, when the stock index fell to a 12-year low.
Laporan Fundamental & Rumor Saham IHSG 04-09-2009
Research UBS Sec: Sell BDMN target Rp 3,825
Research Indo Premier Sec : Buy TINS target Rp 2,625
Cermati Saham Gajah Tunggal
HARGA saham PT Gajah Tunggal Tbk (GJTL) berpotensi menuju level Rp 500 dalam jangka pendek. Sumber Investor Daily mengungkapkan, adanya kabar di pasar yang menyebutkan bahwa perseroan bakal mengakuisisi perkebunan karet menjadi momentum kenaikan harga GJTL. Sebab, akuisisi itu dapat menopang produksi ban perseroan. Selain itu, keberhasilan perseroan mencetak laba bersih pada semester I-2009 juga bakal berdampak positif. Kemarin, GJTL ditutup naik Rp 20 (6,15%) ke posisi Rp 345.
Tunas Lampung Ekspansi
PT TUNAS Baru Lampung Tbk (TBLA) dikabarkan akan ekspansi dengan melakukan penanaman kelapa sawit di lahan baru di Sumatera dan Kalimantan. Menurut sumber Investor Daily, sejumlah broker kini mengakumulasi kembali TBLA, sehingga harganya berpeluang naik ke level Rp 400-600 dalam jangka pendek maupun menangah. Kemarin, TBLA ditutup menguat ke Rp 355.
Rumor Diakuisisi, Suparma Kuasai Bursa
Pergerakan saham Suparma (SPMA) dalam dua hari ini cukup atraktif dengan memanfaatkan rumor akuisisi yang dihembuskan lagi. Pada perdagangan pukul 11.00 WIB SPMA naik cukup drastis Rp 30 ke Rp 290 dari penutupan kemarin di Rp 265 per saham.
Bimbang Mencari Arah, IHSG melemah tipis
Hingga pukul 11.30 WIB, indeks bertengger di 2.319.56 (-3.096 poin) berkat tekanan penjualan di sejumlah saham grup Bakrie. Indeks saham regional rata-rata menguat. Indeks DJIA +63.94 di 9344.61. Indeks Nikkei 225 Jepang melemah 12.85 di 10202.59, Hang Seng Hong Kong +105.09 di 19,867.37, Kospi Korea Selatan -2.81 di 1611.23, Shanghai +5.724 di 2,850,748. Lead (timah hitam) mengalami panic pembelian di pasar LME kemarin ke level tertinggi 16-tahun +2.9% di $ 2,345. Harga emas menguat ke level tertinggi sejak Maret 2009 di $999/troy ons kemarin. Harga minyak stabil di $ 68.25/barel. ISM Services AS Agustus menguat 48.4, GDP Q2 Korsel 2.6% diatas perkiraan pasar. Pasar masih menunggu data payroll & unemployment AS hari ini, Pertemuan menteri keuangan G20 di London hari ini.
Mata uang rupiah hari ini melemah 10 rupiah terhadap dolar ke 10,135, karena penguatan dolar terhadap mata uang regional Asia lainnya, mengantisipasi data tenaga kerja AS hari ini. USD-JPY meguat 0.0010 di 92.63, AUD-USD flat di 0.8402, NZD-USD menguat 0.0027 di 0.6803, USD-CNY menguat 0.0005 di 6.8309, USD-SGD menguat 0.0010 di 1.4411, USD-PHP melemah 0.0250 di 48.6850, USD-THB menguat 0.0100 di 34.0650, USD-MYR menguat 0.0010 di 3.5290.
Indocement Tambah Produksi Tahun Depan
PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk (INTP) akan menambah kapasitas produksinya mulai awal tahun depan menjadi 18,6 juta ton per tahun dari kapasitas saat ini yang sebesar 17,1 ton per tahun.
Beli, Target Saham Medco Rp3.600
PT Medco Energi International Tnk (MEDC) mencatat penurunan pendapatan sebesar 57% menjadi US$548,4 juta karena penurunan harga minyak.
PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama (BUMI) saat ini memiliki 12 kontrak dengan nilai total sekitar US$5,3 miliar atau sekitar 7,7 kali pendapatan pada 2008. Demikian penjelasan manajemen PT Delta Dunia Petroindo Tbk (DOID), perseroan yang mengambilalih BUMA pada 20 Agustus 2009, dalam penjelasan tertulis ke BEI, kemarin.
PT CIMB GK Securities Indonesia mempertahankan rating Outperform untuk United Tractors Tbk (UNTR) dengan target harga di Rp16,800 berdasarkan 15x CY10 P/E lantaran adanya pertumbuhan anak usahanya PT Pama Persada Nusantara (PAMA).
PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk (INDF) memisahkan divisi bisnis produk konsumen bermerek CBP yang terdiri dari mie instan dan food ingrediant. Divisi ini bernama PT Indofood Consumer Branded Product (CBP) Sukses Makmur yang didirikan 2 September 2009.
PT Matahari Putra Prima Tbk (MPPA) akan menganggarkan belanja modal atau capital expentiodute/capex untuk 2010 sebesar Rp1 triliun dibanding pada 2009 sebesar Rp600-700 miliar.
HARGA SAHAM MENGUAT, Leyand Disiapkan Jadi Holding Infrastruktur Rp 6 T
PT Leyand International Tbk (LAPD) tengah disiapkan menjadi perusahaan induk (holding company) di bidang infrastruktur dengan total aset senilai Rp 6 triliun. Perseroan akan menjalani bisnis pembangkit listrik, jalan tol, pelabuhan, dan air minum.
FREN: Target Rights Issue Diperbesar jadi Rp2,12 Triliun
FREN memperbesar target rights issue jadi Rp2,12 triliun dari semula Rp300-500 miliar terkait debt to equity swap yang ditargetkan akan dilaksanakan pada akhir Okto09. Namun rencana ini masih menunggu persertujuan RUPS pada 30 Sept09.
BBNI: Kucurkan Utang Geo Dipo US$90 Juta
Konsorsium perbankan yang dipimpin BBNI siap mengucurkan pinjaman kepada PT Geo Dipa Energi,anak usaha PLN dan Pertamina sebesar US$90 juta yang akan ditandatangani pada bulan ini dan Oktober.
Astra Belum Berencana Stock Split
PT Astra International Tbk (ASII) belum berencana memecah nilai nominal saham (stock split) terkait harga saham perseroan yang saat ini mendekati level Rp 30 ribu.
Dana Kelolaan Fortis Tembus Rp 20,40 T
PT Fortis Investment membukukan total dana kelolaan (asset under management/AUM) sebesar Rp 20,40 triliun pada Juli 2009, tumbuh 12 % dibanding Juni sekitar Rp 18,2 triliun. Sedangkan nilai aktiva bersih (NAB) reksa dana Fortis naik 57% menjadi Rp 16,75 triliun.
Harga Karet Alam Bisa Melejit 19%
Marubeni Corp, seperti dikutip Bloomberg, memprediksi harga karet berpeluang melonjak setidaknya 19% sampai akhir 2010.
ANTM Mengincar Tambang BHP Billiton
ANTM akan segera melakukan uji tuntas atau due diligence jika BHP Billiton sudah resmi membuka penawaran.
SMCB Bikin Pabrik di Tuban
Pabrik baru itu akan memiliki kapasitas sekitar 2 juta ton.
BAT Kuasai 99,74% RMBA
Perusahaan rokok asal Inggris itu menghabiskan sekitar Rp 858,78 miliar dalam tender offer itu.
SUN Lebih Menarik dari Global Bond
Bagi investor jangka pendek, SUN lebih menarik daripada Global Bond
UNTR: Revisi Target Penjualan
UNTR merevisi target penjualan alat berat sepanjang 2009 dari 2.800 unit menjadi 3.000 unit seiring membaiknya kondisi perekonomian nasional. Selama 1H09, penjualan mencapai 1.399 unit, lebih dari 50% dari total target 3.000 unit.
BBRI: Kucuri BUMN Rp 7 Triliun
Hingga akhir tahun, BBRI akan mengucurkan kredit sebesar Rp 7 triliun ke sejumlah BUMN, seperti Perum Bulog, Perum Pegadaian, PT Perkebunan Nusantara, dan TLKM. Dalam kucuran dana tersebut, TLKM mendapat porsi terbesar. Kredit tersebut merupakan bagian dari target sebesar Rp 29 triliun.
APG Genjot Penjualan 12 Proyek
Agung Podomoro Group (APG) menggenjot penjualan produk properti pada kuartal IV-2009 dengan sistem jemput bola. Pengembang ini optimistis bisa memenuhi target pendapatan dari 12 proyeknya senilai Rp 2,6 triliun, atau naik 15% dibanding periode sama 2008.
Sumber: Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, Inilah.com, Kontan, Investor-Daily, Detik.com.
www.strategydesk.co.id
www.harumdanaberjangka.co.id
www.universalbroker.co.id (Code TF)
Liat edisi saham di bagian bawah label saham
Edisi tabloid kontan pekan ini dan 04/09
Research Indo Premier Sec : Buy TINS target Rp 2,625
Cermati Saham Gajah Tunggal
HARGA saham PT Gajah Tunggal Tbk (GJTL) berpotensi menuju level Rp 500 dalam jangka pendek. Sumber Investor Daily mengungkapkan, adanya kabar di pasar yang menyebutkan bahwa perseroan bakal mengakuisisi perkebunan karet menjadi momentum kenaikan harga GJTL. Sebab, akuisisi itu dapat menopang produksi ban perseroan. Selain itu, keberhasilan perseroan mencetak laba bersih pada semester I-2009 juga bakal berdampak positif. Kemarin, GJTL ditutup naik Rp 20 (6,15%) ke posisi Rp 345.
Tunas Lampung Ekspansi
PT TUNAS Baru Lampung Tbk (TBLA) dikabarkan akan ekspansi dengan melakukan penanaman kelapa sawit di lahan baru di Sumatera dan Kalimantan. Menurut sumber Investor Daily, sejumlah broker kini mengakumulasi kembali TBLA, sehingga harganya berpeluang naik ke level Rp 400-600 dalam jangka pendek maupun menangah. Kemarin, TBLA ditutup menguat ke Rp 355.
Rumor Diakuisisi, Suparma Kuasai Bursa
Pergerakan saham Suparma (SPMA) dalam dua hari ini cukup atraktif dengan memanfaatkan rumor akuisisi yang dihembuskan lagi. Pada perdagangan pukul 11.00 WIB SPMA naik cukup drastis Rp 30 ke Rp 290 dari penutupan kemarin di Rp 265 per saham.
Bimbang Mencari Arah, IHSG melemah tipis
Hingga pukul 11.30 WIB, indeks bertengger di 2.319.56 (-3.096 poin) berkat tekanan penjualan di sejumlah saham grup Bakrie. Indeks saham regional rata-rata menguat. Indeks DJIA +63.94 di 9344.61. Indeks Nikkei 225 Jepang melemah 12.85 di 10202.59, Hang Seng Hong Kong +105.09 di 19,867.37, Kospi Korea Selatan -2.81 di 1611.23, Shanghai +5.724 di 2,850,748. Lead (timah hitam) mengalami panic pembelian di pasar LME kemarin ke level tertinggi 16-tahun +2.9% di $ 2,345. Harga emas menguat ke level tertinggi sejak Maret 2009 di $999/troy ons kemarin. Harga minyak stabil di $ 68.25/barel. ISM Services AS Agustus menguat 48.4, GDP Q2 Korsel 2.6% diatas perkiraan pasar. Pasar masih menunggu data payroll & unemployment AS hari ini, Pertemuan menteri keuangan G20 di London hari ini.
Mata uang rupiah hari ini melemah 10 rupiah terhadap dolar ke 10,135, karena penguatan dolar terhadap mata uang regional Asia lainnya, mengantisipasi data tenaga kerja AS hari ini. USD-JPY meguat 0.0010 di 92.63, AUD-USD flat di 0.8402, NZD-USD menguat 0.0027 di 0.6803, USD-CNY menguat 0.0005 di 6.8309, USD-SGD menguat 0.0010 di 1.4411, USD-PHP melemah 0.0250 di 48.6850, USD-THB menguat 0.0100 di 34.0650, USD-MYR menguat 0.0010 di 3.5290.
Indocement Tambah Produksi Tahun Depan
PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk (INTP) akan menambah kapasitas produksinya mulai awal tahun depan menjadi 18,6 juta ton per tahun dari kapasitas saat ini yang sebesar 17,1 ton per tahun.
Beli, Target Saham Medco Rp3.600
PT Medco Energi International Tnk (MEDC) mencatat penurunan pendapatan sebesar 57% menjadi US$548,4 juta karena penurunan harga minyak.
PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama (BUMI) saat ini memiliki 12 kontrak dengan nilai total sekitar US$5,3 miliar atau sekitar 7,7 kali pendapatan pada 2008. Demikian penjelasan manajemen PT Delta Dunia Petroindo Tbk (DOID), perseroan yang mengambilalih BUMA pada 20 Agustus 2009, dalam penjelasan tertulis ke BEI, kemarin.
PT CIMB GK Securities Indonesia mempertahankan rating Outperform untuk United Tractors Tbk (UNTR) dengan target harga di Rp16,800 berdasarkan 15x CY10 P/E lantaran adanya pertumbuhan anak usahanya PT Pama Persada Nusantara (PAMA).
PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk (INDF) memisahkan divisi bisnis produk konsumen bermerek CBP yang terdiri dari mie instan dan food ingrediant. Divisi ini bernama PT Indofood Consumer Branded Product (CBP) Sukses Makmur yang didirikan 2 September 2009.
PT Matahari Putra Prima Tbk (MPPA) akan menganggarkan belanja modal atau capital expentiodute/capex untuk 2010 sebesar Rp1 triliun dibanding pada 2009 sebesar Rp600-700 miliar.
HARGA SAHAM MENGUAT, Leyand Disiapkan Jadi Holding Infrastruktur Rp 6 T
PT Leyand International Tbk (LAPD) tengah disiapkan menjadi perusahaan induk (holding company) di bidang infrastruktur dengan total aset senilai Rp 6 triliun. Perseroan akan menjalani bisnis pembangkit listrik, jalan tol, pelabuhan, dan air minum.
FREN: Target Rights Issue Diperbesar jadi Rp2,12 Triliun
FREN memperbesar target rights issue jadi Rp2,12 triliun dari semula Rp300-500 miliar terkait debt to equity swap yang ditargetkan akan dilaksanakan pada akhir Okto09. Namun rencana ini masih menunggu persertujuan RUPS pada 30 Sept09.
BBNI: Kucurkan Utang Geo Dipo US$90 Juta
Konsorsium perbankan yang dipimpin BBNI siap mengucurkan pinjaman kepada PT Geo Dipa Energi,anak usaha PLN dan Pertamina sebesar US$90 juta yang akan ditandatangani pada bulan ini dan Oktober.
Astra Belum Berencana Stock Split
PT Astra International Tbk (ASII) belum berencana memecah nilai nominal saham (stock split) terkait harga saham perseroan yang saat ini mendekati level Rp 30 ribu.
Dana Kelolaan Fortis Tembus Rp 20,40 T
PT Fortis Investment membukukan total dana kelolaan (asset under management/AUM) sebesar Rp 20,40 triliun pada Juli 2009, tumbuh 12 % dibanding Juni sekitar Rp 18,2 triliun. Sedangkan nilai aktiva bersih (NAB) reksa dana Fortis naik 57% menjadi Rp 16,75 triliun.
Harga Karet Alam Bisa Melejit 19%
Marubeni Corp, seperti dikutip Bloomberg, memprediksi harga karet berpeluang melonjak setidaknya 19% sampai akhir 2010.
ANTM Mengincar Tambang BHP Billiton
ANTM akan segera melakukan uji tuntas atau due diligence jika BHP Billiton sudah resmi membuka penawaran.
SMCB Bikin Pabrik di Tuban
Pabrik baru itu akan memiliki kapasitas sekitar 2 juta ton.
BAT Kuasai 99,74% RMBA
Perusahaan rokok asal Inggris itu menghabiskan sekitar Rp 858,78 miliar dalam tender offer itu.
SUN Lebih Menarik dari Global Bond
Bagi investor jangka pendek, SUN lebih menarik daripada Global Bond
UNTR: Revisi Target Penjualan
UNTR merevisi target penjualan alat berat sepanjang 2009 dari 2.800 unit menjadi 3.000 unit seiring membaiknya kondisi perekonomian nasional. Selama 1H09, penjualan mencapai 1.399 unit, lebih dari 50% dari total target 3.000 unit.
BBRI: Kucuri BUMN Rp 7 Triliun
Hingga akhir tahun, BBRI akan mengucurkan kredit sebesar Rp 7 triliun ke sejumlah BUMN, seperti Perum Bulog, Perum Pegadaian, PT Perkebunan Nusantara, dan TLKM. Dalam kucuran dana tersebut, TLKM mendapat porsi terbesar. Kredit tersebut merupakan bagian dari target sebesar Rp 29 triliun.
APG Genjot Penjualan 12 Proyek
Agung Podomoro Group (APG) menggenjot penjualan produk properti pada kuartal IV-2009 dengan sistem jemput bola. Pengembang ini optimistis bisa memenuhi target pendapatan dari 12 proyeknya senilai Rp 2,6 triliun, atau naik 15% dibanding periode sama 2008.
Sumber: Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, Inilah.com, Kontan, Investor-Daily, Detik.com.
www.strategydesk.co.id
www.harumdanaberjangka.co.id
www.universalbroker.co.id (Code TF)
Liat edisi saham di bagian bawah label saham
Edisi tabloid kontan pekan ini dan 04/09
Potensi Profit Taking Dapat Batasi Laju Kenaikan IHSG
Market Review
IHSG mendapatkan keuntungan dari kenaikan indeks saham China yang diikuti indeks saham regional lainnya sehingga meningkatkan keyakinan investor untuk memburu kembali saham dan komoditi, mengacuhkan penurunan indeks saham DJIA AS akibat kekhawatiran terhadap sektor finansial dan tenaga kerja. Kenaikan harga komoditas logam emas dan minyak, mendorong kenaikan saham pertambangan logam dan batubara. Imbas penguatan rupiah ke level Rp 10,125/dolar, setelah BI menahan laju suku bunga di 6.5% dan melihat trend penurunan inflasi di akhir tahun, positif untuk IHSG kemarin. IHSG melonjak 36.321 poin (1.59%) ditutup di 2,322.246, dengan nilai transaksi Rp 4.07 triliun. Investor asing membukukan net sell Rp 93.11 miliar kemarin.
Indeks saham MSCI Asia-Pacific menguat karena harga emas menguat ke level tertinggi sejak Maret 2009 dan pernyataan dari Alcoa AS bahwa permintaan China untuk alumunium akan meningkat di tahun ini. Spekulasi China akan mengadopsi langkah untuk mengangkat saham dan pelemahan dolar AS, ikut meningkatkan daya tarik untuk saham Asia. Meski kekhawatiran data tenaga kerja AS membatasi laju kenaikan.
IHSG Outlook
IndP/E (x)
EPS
Y/YY/YSuku Bunga*Inflasi*
Y/YGDP*
Y/Y
IHSG29.88%+5.9%6.50%2.75%4.0%
STI24.516%-1.9%0.69%-0.70%-10.1%
KLCI14.510%-5.1%2.0%3.00%-3.9%
SET13.24%-9.2%1.25%-3.30%-7.10%
SSE28.636%+25%5.31%-1.40%7.9%
N22541.2-1%-18.4%0.10%-0.10%-9.7%
HSI21.819%-9.1%0.50%0.60%-7.80%
DJIA17.53%-21.8%0.25%-1.4%-3.6%
* Negara Bersangkutan
Meredanya sentimen negatif dari dalam dan luar negeri, dapat mendorong potensi kenaikan IHSG pada hari ini, setelah kemarin Bank Indonesia melihat peluang penurunan inflasi diakhir tahun yang dianggap membuka peluang untuk penurunan suku bunga di akhir tahun, diikuti penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar AS (penutupan Rp 10,125), seharusnya positif untuk saham perbankan, property dan konsumer. Kenaikan harga komoditi logam dan minyak memberikan sentimen positif kepada sejumlah saham komoditi domestik, meredanya kekhawatiran terhadap sektor finansial dan tenaga kerja AS setelah The Organization for Economic Coorperation and Development (OECD) melihat kemungkinan resesi global telah berakhir dan kenaikan data ISM sektor jasa AS bulan Agustus. Pernyataan dari China bahwa pemerintah akan mengadopsi langkah untuk mengangkat harga saham ke level yan stabil dan sehat, serta positifnya sejumlah laporan keuangan semester 1 dari sejumlah saham unggulan dan spekulasi
pengumuman kabinet Presiden SBY di bulan Oktober, merupakan hal-hal yang dapat memberikan support kepada IHSG hari ini.
Meski perkiraan kenaikan IHSG hari ini terbatas, karena mahalnya valuasi saham domestik (PE 29.8x : sumber Bloomberg), kekhawatiran terhadap kejutan yang negatif dari data tenaga kerja AS dan pertemuan menteri keuangan negara G20 di London hari ini, laporan Fortis Investment bahwa saham domestik berpeluang terkoreksi dalam 2 bulan mendatang, diikuti kondisi teknikal menunjukkan fase koreksi minor.
Stock Picks: Average last 10 week +67.37%. Target 10-30%, Risk < -10%
Hold Buy: BUMI, UNSP, ENRG, BSDE, CTRS, KIJA, JSMR, SMMA, BYAN, BBKP, INKP, HEXA, PGAS, ADRO. Closed (04/09). Buy : BNBR, BKSL, ANTM
Stock Picks:
•BKSL : Buy target Rp 160
•MEDC : Hold target Rp 3,450
Global Outlook
Meredanya sentimen negatif dari kekhawatiran terhadap sektor finansial, tenaga kerja AS dan bubble saham China, setelah data dari sektor jasa AS (48.4), PMI Euro & Inggris (49.9 & 54.1), GDP Q2 Korea Selatan (2.6%) meningkat diatas perkiraan pasar, diikuti pernyataan dari China bahwa pemerintah akan membuat pasar saham yang sehat dan stabil, laporan OECD bahwa resesi global mungkin telah berakhir dan poling CNBC menunjukkan harga rumah AS akan berbalik naik di tahun 2010, diikuti laporan Alcoa AS melihat permintaan untuk aluminium dari China meningkat di tahun ini dan crude oil inventory AS pekan lalu tercatat -0.4 juta barel, meningkatkan daya tarik untuk saham dan komoditi global di akhir pekan ini. Meski kekhawatiran terhadap sektor tenaga kerja AS hari ini setelah jobless Claims (570K), Retail Sales Euro (-0.2%) dan perkiraan aksi profit-taking menjelang pertemuan G20 di London dimulai hari ini dan data pengangguran AS, dapat membebani kinerja indeks
saham global
Technical Analysis:
Tekanan bearish mereda di IHSG, setelah formasi three black crows tertahan lajunya kemarin, diikuti IHSG masih ditutup diatas channel support di 2,294 dan trendline support di 2,277, seharusnya mendorong potensi technical rebound kembali hari ini. Indikator ADX meningkat, MACD berada di teritorial netral (alert untuk pekan depan), seharusnya masih menunjukkan kuatnya momentum penurunan dan picu perkiraan technical rebound terbatas ke kisaran 2,346/2,363 (akhir w. Iv/c?; sell area), untuk potensi koreksi ke target 2,223/2,2190 pekan depan. Jika IHSG ditutup dibawah 2,277 hari ini, dapat mendorong perkiraan wave minor iv/c berakhir, merupakan subwave dalam correction wave 4) / (4).
Resistance: 2378.68/2356.51/2347.94/2339.38. PP 2312.15
Support : 2303.59/2295.02/2281.41/2267.80
IHSG mendapatkan keuntungan dari kenaikan indeks saham China yang diikuti indeks saham regional lainnya sehingga meningkatkan keyakinan investor untuk memburu kembali saham dan komoditi, mengacuhkan penurunan indeks saham DJIA AS akibat kekhawatiran terhadap sektor finansial dan tenaga kerja. Kenaikan harga komoditas logam emas dan minyak, mendorong kenaikan saham pertambangan logam dan batubara. Imbas penguatan rupiah ke level Rp 10,125/dolar, setelah BI menahan laju suku bunga di 6.5% dan melihat trend penurunan inflasi di akhir tahun, positif untuk IHSG kemarin. IHSG melonjak 36.321 poin (1.59%) ditutup di 2,322.246, dengan nilai transaksi Rp 4.07 triliun. Investor asing membukukan net sell Rp 93.11 miliar kemarin.
Indeks saham MSCI Asia-Pacific menguat karena harga emas menguat ke level tertinggi sejak Maret 2009 dan pernyataan dari Alcoa AS bahwa permintaan China untuk alumunium akan meningkat di tahun ini. Spekulasi China akan mengadopsi langkah untuk mengangkat saham dan pelemahan dolar AS, ikut meningkatkan daya tarik untuk saham Asia. Meski kekhawatiran data tenaga kerja AS membatasi laju kenaikan.
IHSG Outlook
IndP/E (x)
EPS
Y/YY/YSuku Bunga*Inflasi*
Y/YGDP*
Y/Y
IHSG29.88%+5.9%6.50%2.75%4.0%
STI24.516%-1.9%0.69%-0.70%-10.1%
KLCI14.510%-5.1%2.0%3.00%-3.9%
SET13.24%-9.2%1.25%-3.30%-7.10%
SSE28.636%+25%5.31%-1.40%7.9%
N22541.2-1%-18.4%0.10%-0.10%-9.7%
HSI21.819%-9.1%0.50%0.60%-7.80%
DJIA17.53%-21.8%0.25%-1.4%-3.6%
* Negara Bersangkutan
Meredanya sentimen negatif dari dalam dan luar negeri, dapat mendorong potensi kenaikan IHSG pada hari ini, setelah kemarin Bank Indonesia melihat peluang penurunan inflasi diakhir tahun yang dianggap membuka peluang untuk penurunan suku bunga di akhir tahun, diikuti penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar AS (penutupan Rp 10,125), seharusnya positif untuk saham perbankan, property dan konsumer. Kenaikan harga komoditi logam dan minyak memberikan sentimen positif kepada sejumlah saham komoditi domestik, meredanya kekhawatiran terhadap sektor finansial dan tenaga kerja AS setelah The Organization for Economic Coorperation and Development (OECD) melihat kemungkinan resesi global telah berakhir dan kenaikan data ISM sektor jasa AS bulan Agustus. Pernyataan dari China bahwa pemerintah akan mengadopsi langkah untuk mengangkat harga saham ke level yan stabil dan sehat, serta positifnya sejumlah laporan keuangan semester 1 dari sejumlah saham unggulan dan spekulasi
pengumuman kabinet Presiden SBY di bulan Oktober, merupakan hal-hal yang dapat memberikan support kepada IHSG hari ini.
Meski perkiraan kenaikan IHSG hari ini terbatas, karena mahalnya valuasi saham domestik (PE 29.8x : sumber Bloomberg), kekhawatiran terhadap kejutan yang negatif dari data tenaga kerja AS dan pertemuan menteri keuangan negara G20 di London hari ini, laporan Fortis Investment bahwa saham domestik berpeluang terkoreksi dalam 2 bulan mendatang, diikuti kondisi teknikal menunjukkan fase koreksi minor.
Stock Picks: Average last 10 week +67.37%. Target 10-30%, Risk < -10%
Hold Buy: BUMI, UNSP, ENRG, BSDE, CTRS, KIJA, JSMR, SMMA, BYAN, BBKP, INKP, HEXA, PGAS, ADRO. Closed (04/09). Buy : BNBR, BKSL, ANTM
Stock Picks:
•BKSL : Buy target Rp 160
•MEDC : Hold target Rp 3,450
Global Outlook
Meredanya sentimen negatif dari kekhawatiran terhadap sektor finansial, tenaga kerja AS dan bubble saham China, setelah data dari sektor jasa AS (48.4), PMI Euro & Inggris (49.9 & 54.1), GDP Q2 Korea Selatan (2.6%) meningkat diatas perkiraan pasar, diikuti pernyataan dari China bahwa pemerintah akan membuat pasar saham yang sehat dan stabil, laporan OECD bahwa resesi global mungkin telah berakhir dan poling CNBC menunjukkan harga rumah AS akan berbalik naik di tahun 2010, diikuti laporan Alcoa AS melihat permintaan untuk aluminium dari China meningkat di tahun ini dan crude oil inventory AS pekan lalu tercatat -0.4 juta barel, meningkatkan daya tarik untuk saham dan komoditi global di akhir pekan ini. Meski kekhawatiran terhadap sektor tenaga kerja AS hari ini setelah jobless Claims (570K), Retail Sales Euro (-0.2%) dan perkiraan aksi profit-taking menjelang pertemuan G20 di London dimulai hari ini dan data pengangguran AS, dapat membebani kinerja indeks
saham global
Technical Analysis:
Tekanan bearish mereda di IHSG, setelah formasi three black crows tertahan lajunya kemarin, diikuti IHSG masih ditutup diatas channel support di 2,294 dan trendline support di 2,277, seharusnya mendorong potensi technical rebound kembali hari ini. Indikator ADX meningkat, MACD berada di teritorial netral (alert untuk pekan depan), seharusnya masih menunjukkan kuatnya momentum penurunan dan picu perkiraan technical rebound terbatas ke kisaran 2,346/2,363 (akhir w. Iv/c?; sell area), untuk potensi koreksi ke target 2,223/2,2190 pekan depan. Jika IHSG ditutup dibawah 2,277 hari ini, dapat mendorong perkiraan wave minor iv/c berakhir, merupakan subwave dalam correction wave 4) / (4).
Resistance: 2378.68/2356.51/2347.94/2339.38. PP 2312.15
Support : 2303.59/2295.02/2281.41/2267.80
Nikkei Futures Kontrak September (SSIU9)
Indeks Nikkei ditutup turun 0,64% kemarin, dipicu jatuhnya saham eksportir karena kekhawatiran terhadap ekonomi AS setelah rilisan data AS yang jauh dari harapan. Sementara itu, Dainippon Sumitomo Pharma naik karena pemberitaan pengajuan penawaran dengan perusahaan farmasi AS, Sepracor. Indeks Nikkei .N225 ditutup kehilangan 65,82 poin, atau 0,64%, ke posisi 10.214,64.
Indeks menunjukkan pola candle dojis di daily chart, memberikan indikasi pembalikan trend minor, meski berada dalam down channel. Indikator ADX rebound, MACD masih berada teritorial bearish, seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan indeks hari ini. Hitungan EW menunjukkan indeks saat ini berada dalam wave koreksi 3/A dalam koreksi ABC dalam subwave (4). Resistance di 10300 (upper channel)/10400 (20 MAl)/10560 (trendline) Support 10170 (channel support)/10108 (tweezer bottom). Perkiraan range hari ini 10100-10400. Rekomendasi Sell 10410 target 10200 stp 100p, Buy 10050 target 10650 stop 100p, hold buy 10,230 target 10400, Sell 10,750 target 10,400. (-100p)Chart SSIU9 4-Jam
Kospi Futures Kontrak September (KSU9)
Perdagangan saham di lantai bursa Korsel berakhir flat di tengah fluktuasinya perdagangan, setelah saham otomotif seperti Hyundai Motor terkoreksi dari rally sebelumnya. Namun, penguatan saham bank berhasil membatasi kejatuhan indeks, berkat upgrade yang dilakukan lembaga peringkat Fitch. Indeks Kospi .KS11 ditutup naik tipis 0,37 poin, atau 0,02%, ke posisi 10.214,64.
Indeks masih memberikan signal positif dari pola ascending triangle dan pola candle hanging man , meski momentum kenaikan lebih lanjut dapat dibatasi oleh signal divergence negatif (volume). Indikator ADX lemah, MACD masih bullish, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas. Hitungan EW menunjukkan indeks berada di wave 3/5. Resistance di 213.25 (trendline)/218.05 (161.8 FR). Support 209.70 /207.80. Rekomendasi Buy 209.70 & 207.80 target 213.00 stop 100p, Sell 213.50 target 209.50, Sell break 206.50 target 203.00 stop 60p. Buy 203.00 target 207.50 stop 50p. Sell 218.00 target 209.00 stop 100p. (-100+400p)Chart KSU9 4-Jam
Hang Seng Futures Kontrak September (HSIU9)
Bursa Hong Kong ditutup menguat 1,23% hari ini mengikuti penguatan bursa Cina berkat pernyataan pejabat yang mendorong pembelian teknikal, setelah pasar jatuh tajam kemarin. Indeks Hang Seng .HSI ditutup menguat 239,68 poin, atau 1,23%, ke posisi 19.761,68.
Dalam chart daily, Indeks menunjukkan signal positif dari pola candle shooting star dan pola uptrend channel dalam pola descending triangle, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan potensi penurunan terbatas hari ini. Indikator ADX merosot, MACD bearish, seharusnya dukung potensi technical rebound. Indeks akan mendapatkan sejumlah resistance 19740/20000. Support di 19440/19180. Hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan proses koreksi 5 / c . Rekomendasi : Buy break 20010 target 20350 stop 60p. Sell 20350 target 20,000 stop 100p. Buy break 20380 target 20550 stop 100p. Hold Buy 19500 target 19850 stop 100p, Buy 19200 target 19850, sell break 19150 target 19000 stop 100p. (100p)Chart HSIN9 4-jam
Indeks Nikkei ditutup turun 0,64% kemarin, dipicu jatuhnya saham eksportir karena kekhawatiran terhadap ekonomi AS setelah rilisan data AS yang jauh dari harapan. Sementara itu, Dainippon Sumitomo Pharma naik karena pemberitaan pengajuan penawaran dengan perusahaan farmasi AS, Sepracor. Indeks Nikkei .N225 ditutup kehilangan 65,82 poin, atau 0,64%, ke posisi 10.214,64.
Indeks menunjukkan pola candle dojis di daily chart, memberikan indikasi pembalikan trend minor, meski berada dalam down channel. Indikator ADX rebound, MACD masih berada teritorial bearish, seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan indeks hari ini. Hitungan EW menunjukkan indeks saat ini berada dalam wave koreksi 3/A dalam koreksi ABC dalam subwave (4). Resistance di 10300 (upper channel)/10400 (20 MAl)/10560 (trendline) Support 10170 (channel support)/10108 (tweezer bottom). Perkiraan range hari ini 10100-10400. Rekomendasi Sell 10410 target 10200 stp 100p, Buy 10050 target 10650 stop 100p, hold buy 10,230 target 10400, Sell 10,750 target 10,400. (-100p)Chart SSIU9 4-Jam
Kospi Futures Kontrak September (KSU9)
Perdagangan saham di lantai bursa Korsel berakhir flat di tengah fluktuasinya perdagangan, setelah saham otomotif seperti Hyundai Motor terkoreksi dari rally sebelumnya. Namun, penguatan saham bank berhasil membatasi kejatuhan indeks, berkat upgrade yang dilakukan lembaga peringkat Fitch. Indeks Kospi .KS11 ditutup naik tipis 0,37 poin, atau 0,02%, ke posisi 10.214,64.
Indeks masih memberikan signal positif dari pola ascending triangle dan pola candle hanging man , meski momentum kenaikan lebih lanjut dapat dibatasi oleh signal divergence negatif (volume). Indikator ADX lemah, MACD masih bullish, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas. Hitungan EW menunjukkan indeks berada di wave 3/5. Resistance di 213.25 (trendline)/218.05 (161.8 FR). Support 209.70 /207.80. Rekomendasi Buy 209.70 & 207.80 target 213.00 stop 100p, Sell 213.50 target 209.50, Sell break 206.50 target 203.00 stop 60p. Buy 203.00 target 207.50 stop 50p. Sell 218.00 target 209.00 stop 100p. (-100+400p)Chart KSU9 4-Jam
Hang Seng Futures Kontrak September (HSIU9)
Bursa Hong Kong ditutup menguat 1,23% hari ini mengikuti penguatan bursa Cina berkat pernyataan pejabat yang mendorong pembelian teknikal, setelah pasar jatuh tajam kemarin. Indeks Hang Seng .HSI ditutup menguat 239,68 poin, atau 1,23%, ke posisi 19.761,68.
Dalam chart daily, Indeks menunjukkan signal positif dari pola candle shooting star dan pola uptrend channel dalam pola descending triangle, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan potensi penurunan terbatas hari ini. Indikator ADX merosot, MACD bearish, seharusnya dukung potensi technical rebound. Indeks akan mendapatkan sejumlah resistance 19740/20000. Support di 19440/19180. Hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan proses koreksi 5 / c . Rekomendasi : Buy break 20010 target 20350 stop 60p. Sell 20350 target 20,000 stop 100p. Buy break 20380 target 20550 stop 100p. Hold Buy 19500 target 19850 stop 100p, Buy 19200 target 19850, sell break 19150 target 19000 stop 100p. (100p)Chart HSIN9 4-jam
Technical Analysis
EUR-USD
Euro kembali positif dari penutupan diataschannel support di 1.4265 dan pola candle daily menunjukkan pola bullish reversal dalam sebuah pla zigzag, seharusnya mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas. Indikator ADX menurun dan MACD bullish, seharusnya masih dukung potensi penurunan terbatas. Support berada di 1.4170/1.4240, Resistance berada di 1.4400/1.4450. Euro saat ini berada dalam koreksi wave c/4 untuk target 1.1.3700/1.3800, selama tidak menembus 1.4450. Buy 1.4070 target 1.4150, Buy 1.4140 target 1.4300 stop 1.4070, hold buy 1.4250 target 1.4350 stop 1.4200. sell 1.4400 & 1.4440 target 1.4100, buy break 1.4460 trgt 1.4750. sell break 1.4050 tgt 1.3750. USD-JPY
(-80p) USDJPY menunjukkan pola bullish reversal bearish meski berada dibawah upper channel di 95.60 diikuti pola downtrend channel. Penutupan dibawah channel di 95.60 akan mengarahkan USDJPY ke target low kemarin di 91.50. Indikator ADX up, stochastic crossdown, MACD bearish, seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan selama bertahan di bawah 94.60. Resistance berada di 93.20/94.60, support di 91.90/91.50. Sell 95.60 target 93.50 stop 100p. sell 95.85 target 95.00 stop 60p. Sell 93.50 & & 94.50 stop 100p target 91.50 & Buy 91.50 target 93.50 stop 92.00.
GBP-USD
GBP berada dalam downtrend channel, diikuti signal bullish harami, diikuti indikator ADX up, stochastic oversold dan MACD di teritorial bearish, mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas dalam pola downtrend channel selama ditutup dibawah upper channel 1.6375. EW menunjukkan GBP berada dalam koreksi 5/4. Buy 1.6050 target 1.6350 stop 1.6650. sell 1.6450 target 1.6400 stop 60p, buy 1.6020 target 1.6350. Sell break 1.6000 target 1.5850 stop 60p. Hold Buy 1.6150 target 1.6450.AUD-USD
AUD masih berada dalam uptrend channel dan trend bullish jangka pendek, diikuti pola bullish reversal (bullish harami), sementara indikator ADX naik, MACD masih bullish, mendukung potensi kenaikan target 0.8500, selama di atas 0.8280. Resistance di 0.8450/0.8500, support di 0.828/0.8230. Buy 0.8250 target 0.8500, sell 0.8470 target 0.8300 & buy break 0.8490 stop 0.8650. hold sell 0.8350 target 0.8250. Sell 0.8650 target 0.8350.
EUR-USD
Euro kembali positif dari penutupan diataschannel support di 1.4265 dan pola candle daily menunjukkan pola bullish reversal dalam sebuah pla zigzag, seharusnya mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas. Indikator ADX menurun dan MACD bullish, seharusnya masih dukung potensi penurunan terbatas. Support berada di 1.4170/1.4240, Resistance berada di 1.4400/1.4450. Euro saat ini berada dalam koreksi wave c/4 untuk target 1.1.3700/1.3800, selama tidak menembus 1.4450. Buy 1.4070 target 1.4150, Buy 1.4140 target 1.4300 stop 1.4070, hold buy 1.4250 target 1.4350 stop 1.4200. sell 1.4400 & 1.4440 target 1.4100, buy break 1.4460 trgt 1.4750. sell break 1.4050 tgt 1.3750. USD-JPY
(-80p) USDJPY menunjukkan pola bullish reversal bearish meski berada dibawah upper channel di 95.60 diikuti pola downtrend channel. Penutupan dibawah channel di 95.60 akan mengarahkan USDJPY ke target low kemarin di 91.50. Indikator ADX up, stochastic crossdown, MACD bearish, seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan selama bertahan di bawah 94.60. Resistance berada di 93.20/94.60, support di 91.90/91.50. Sell 95.60 target 93.50 stop 100p. sell 95.85 target 95.00 stop 60p. Sell 93.50 & & 94.50 stop 100p target 91.50 & Buy 91.50 target 93.50 stop 92.00.
GBP-USD
GBP berada dalam downtrend channel, diikuti signal bullish harami, diikuti indikator ADX up, stochastic oversold dan MACD di teritorial bearish, mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas dalam pola downtrend channel selama ditutup dibawah upper channel 1.6375. EW menunjukkan GBP berada dalam koreksi 5/4. Buy 1.6050 target 1.6350 stop 1.6650. sell 1.6450 target 1.6400 stop 60p, buy 1.6020 target 1.6350. Sell break 1.6000 target 1.5850 stop 60p. Hold Buy 1.6150 target 1.6450.AUD-USD
AUD masih berada dalam uptrend channel dan trend bullish jangka pendek, diikuti pola bullish reversal (bullish harami), sementara indikator ADX naik, MACD masih bullish, mendukung potensi kenaikan target 0.8500, selama di atas 0.8280. Resistance di 0.8450/0.8500, support di 0.828/0.8230. Buy 0.8250 target 0.8500, sell 0.8470 target 0.8300 & buy break 0.8490 stop 0.8650. hold sell 0.8350 target 0.8250. Sell 0.8650 target 0.8350.
Gold Jumps Without U.S. Dollar Drop, Separation Before Liftoff
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The latest development in the gold world is highly favorable. Summarize by saying from the rooftops that GOLD LEADS THE CURRENCIES in price movement. Gold is not only a metal, but the most important of currencies, whose importance will soon be confirmed on a worldwide basis. The enlightened realize that if gold had been a core to the banking systems, and to the currency systems, that the entire bank credit crisis would not have occurred. The dimwitted that dominate the landscape still utter nonsense about gold, only to have their prattle squelched and overrun, as it seems so tiresome and vacant anymore.
Gold has begun to respond finally to the global ruin of money, to the Western government fiscal ruin, and to the ruin of the United States and United Kingdom banking systems. The price movement in gold & silver has suddenly turned favorable, although this is an early stage, in spite of the lack of decline in the USDollar. That is the main point. Gold has risen without a lead by the crippled USDollar. Silver has followed. In the last couple hours when this article was penned, gold has risen to 997 and gold risen to 15.90 in nice continued movement, both without any jiggle even to the USDollar or US stock market indexes. The crude oil price, subject of much debate concerning its tether as hedge to the USDollar, has been quiet as well. Gold has begun a stealth rally, an exciting one to come!
CLOSE-UP PICTURE ON GOLD
Like an EKG chart, the very short-term daily chart resembles the electrical activity of a human heart. Except this golden heart has begun to race fast. Watch as even the gold community will show doubt in believing the gold price move. They are so drained of emotion from failed rallies at the $1000 price gate, that they might need a surge in the gold price over $1200 in order to feel glad or giddy, let alone believers in the breakout. The important point is that gold has risen out of its tight 940-965 range in effect for several weeks, and RISEN. The gold price has risen without benefit of a weaker USDollar. It will next challenge the $1000 level in a natural progression. The real debate is whether the gold price will surpass the $1000 level with or without a key signature event. In my view, it simply does not matter. That is like asking whether the sun will rise with or without clouds.
Silver has moved in tandem with gold. It actually fell more in the last year than gold, and now shows more leading thrust power than gold. It has some ground to overcome. The gold/silver ratio remains too high, and must be addressed within the market for precious metals.

The USDollar has NOT demonstrated any notable weakness in the last week. It remains bound in a tight range. The past few weeks have seen the US$ DX index rise and fall, then rise and fall, only to find itself stuck inside a tight range. Numerous news items have come though, enough to tarnish the billboards. The FDIC has announced greater bank losses, and longer distressed banks in a list, a depleted fund, nil loan loss reserves, and new threats from the commercial loan segment. The USEconomy shows signs of life, but needs all sorts of canes and crutches and gurneys and intravenous infusions and boneheaded clunker programs even to struggle in walking. Most signs of life are phony anyway, assisted by twisted perceptions. The Chinese defiant rebellious position of futures contracts has colored the entire sky, except to the Wall Street folks who wear too many tinted glasses to notice.
BIGGER PICTURE FOR GOLD
The bigger picture must address the three pennant pause patterns extremely clear to view. Only the precious metals have broken out of the tight pattern, enough to warrant early conclusions. My conclusion has a headline that gold & silver now should be recognized as leading the USDollar and other currencies. The Competing Currency Wars will continue on their merciless path of global asset destruction and economic deterioration. Damage to other currencies tends to render the USDollar is less pathetic light, no more, no less. The nations that drop the USDollar standard and abandon the USDollar structures will be the first to emerge. Those nations with ample reserves will also fare well. China will remain a mystery. It hitched its wagon to the US$ parade for too long, finds itself in possession of too many US$-based bonds, and is greatly dependent upon a US$-priced global export trade. While debate continues concerning the Middle Kingdom, they will continue to disrupt the US-UK Sphere of influence and global domination.
The gold price has clearly broken out of its pennant pause pattern. The magnitude of the potential lift is roughly $70, from 910 to 980. Look for a 70-point lift from the breakout, which should take the gold price to around $1030 soon, real soon. The vast energy built over the last several months will come to power the move onward and upward.
The silver price has also clearly broken out of its pennant pause pattern. The magnitude of the potential lift is roughly $3, from 13 to 16. Look for a 300-point lift from the breakout, which should take the silver price to around $18 soon, real soon.

The USDollar remains within the bounds of its pennant pause pattern. It awaits instructions. Those instructions are likely to be a death sentence at worst, and a shove into the Third World at best, with an option of a return to normalcy not even remotely possible.
. Its USGovt debt security is gradually being recognized as in tatters, where the custodians are working feverishly to destroy whatever value is lodged within its corrupted bowels. A Banana Republic bond is what is offers, complete with Zimbabwe Printing Pre$$ support, USMilitary protection, a Goldman Sachs syndicate to uphold it, and narco war profits to provide its only weighty ballast (not to be shared).

PROPAGANDA VS REALITY
Just today, typical rubbish commentary came from the New York Stock Exchange floor. As preface, note that over 75% of all NYSE trading volume is traced to Wall Street program trading. Their handy high speed, high frequency trading, also known as insider trading that taps into stock trade orders before they hit the exchange, now dominates the majority of trading activity. If that does not qualify as brokerage pit masturbation, what does??? The commentary went like this to explain the gold price runup, which is still early and still not significant yet in its jump. The charlatans on the NYSE explain the gold price moves up as technically based (therefore not real), as owing to the weak USDollar (not true in the last couple weeks at all), as a safe haven (intriguing if an epiphany is in progress), and as the result of light volume leading to high volatility (the ultimate in lame excuses). The Wall Street gang has really lost a lot of credibility. Why anyone even listens to them is a good question. When they run out of advertisement revenue to spend, we will be forced to listen to them less. Then they will use USGovt budgets to fund their statements in advertisements on financial networks. Ooops! They already do, from the USDept Treasury, when they were given control in 1992, and have commandeered it ever since.
The Chicago trading pits integrate much more brain wattage than the NYSE floor, and far less bias based in crippling propaganda. The wisdom that emerged from Chicago pointed to the gold price rise as a result of two important factors that seem SPOT ON. Chicago buzz centers upon the perceived Chinese demand for gold, both at the official government level (sovereign wealth funds) and the popular street level (retail coin & bar buyers). The other buzz centers upon what could mushroom as one of the biggest stories to date, as it matures and develops. It is difficult even to describe accurately this factor.
The Chinese announced they will permit their state-owned firms to dishonor elements of futures derivative contracts, and thus limit their losses, on a selective contract basis. Crude oil and metal contracts were specifically mentioned. Implications will be difficult to sort out, but on its face, it appears that China has given Wall Street a Big Fat FU as it decides whether to use megaphone repeaters of the defiance in a universal or very selected fashion. Chinese leaders seem adept at shattering the front window, then making backtracks to mend relations. They take a giant step forward to disrupt the global model (see Paradigm Shift) but then talk constructively to the Wall Street and USGovt gangsters (see pretense of Status Quo). Add Japan to the mix, as they have voted out of power the party in control for a full decade. Opposition leaders have clamored for support of the USTreasury Bond only if denominated in Japanese Yen currency. They won!
PARADIGM SHIFT TIDBIT
So New York contains Mr Magoo figures in a confused state at best, and compromised Alphonse Capone figures at worst. My personal belief is that Wall Street was overrun by Capone organization elements long ago, and its toxic ruinous fruits are now painfully clear. The nation’s banking system and financial sector are in ruins, not even remotely subject to remedy. The main difference is that the Italians and Siciliani are not implicated, but rather another whose stock & trade is fraud, collusion, control, nepotism, corruption, even foreign banking hybrid schemes.
Today’s news includes a story receiving no press coverage. The real news network (INTERNET) is abuzz over an announcement by Hong Kong to yank its physical gold holdings from depositories in London, transferring them to a high security depository newly built next to the Hong Kong airport. That would match the layout used by Zurich Switzerland. MarketWatch reports that “The facility, industry professionals said, would support Hong Kong's emergence as a Swiss-style trading hub for bullion and would lessen London's status as a key settlement-and-storage center.” See the article (CLICK HERE).
A reliable banker contact mentioned in response to this story that Moscow will soon emerge as the next super hub. This is yet another link in the chain of Paradigm Shift. The shift is away from New York and London, which will have distinctions before long similar to those of Rome and Athens during their empire collapses. The United States and United Kingdom can no longer wield real power to provide for a robust and sustainable business environment during paradigm change. Focus will eventually shift to the COMEX and LBMA, the major commodity exchanges. A while back, my May article about “Hitmen Contracts to Bust COMEX” (CLICK HERE) garnered some attention, some criticism, and a little debate. The news from China and Hong Kong this week should add fuel to the fire. To the corrupt and comprised, they will remain asleep and diverted until their posts of power are dismantled and they are but ‘Lords of the Flies’ in their own shrinking worlds. This is a potentially highly toxic situation.
The short covering activity will be as amplified as the naked shorting activity had volume. See AIG shares traded in the past couple weeks for a case study, which benefit from the 20% additional shares in counterfeit from naked shorting. That is to say, the naked shorting of AIG shares added 20% to its outstanding float. Those shares must be bought back, thus a stock share price rise. The same effect might occur with gold, powerful upward moves in price from short covering of illicit short contracts. One can only hope, but fundamentals like what is seen from China add credence.
THE ONGOING DISTRACTION
The gold price has moved out of its pause pattern tight range exhibited over the last few weeks. Many detractors had claimed, what with all the ‘deflation’ out there, that the gold price would hurtle downhill toward $900 per ounce and test the bottoms. What incredibly wretched analysis they offer! The false representation, false reporting, and false interpretation of inflation has contributed to an absolute numbing of the minds and almost permanent distortion of the situation. People have no idea what inflation or deflation are anymore. My emails contain some ongoing disturbing and annoying little debates with folks who observe falling stock prices, falling earnings, increased debt distress, increased home foreclosures, and generally deteriorating economic conditions, and therefore cry stupid moans from their porches to anyone who listens. Not me, got no ears for such nonsense!
The confusion offers continued cloud cover for the unbridled unprecedented historically staggering monetary inflation in progress, certain to continue for many many months. The false definition of inflation serves as a distraction within the propaganda engines and machinery. The truth is that inflation is accelerating, if one counts the hidden monetization of USTreasury Bonds offered at bond auctions. It is hardly hidden anymore. How any rational thinking person can focus on falling prices of assets when Weimar-like monetary growth processes are firmly in place is mindboggling. They point still to phony money velocity figures issued by the US Federal Reserve to justify the money printing activity. So the official banking authorities tell us lies about the Consumer Price Inflation and lies about the Gross Domestic Product and lies about Productivity and lies about the Job Loss, but they tell us correct information about the Money Supply and correct information about the Money Velocity. Horse puckey!!
The shocks come when the appearance of some hint of normalcy returns, when some hint of stability takes root. The Money Velocity is huge when the Shadow Banking System is added to the equations. We already know that the US banking system would have crawled if not collapsed without benefit of the shadow system of credit derivatives and vast array of unregulated nonsensical corrupted contracts floating about. So a system plainly dependent upon the Shadow Banking System does not include its activity in the Money Velocity. Well, just wait until the spillover comes. The ivory tower beanie USFed Chairman Bernanke is trying desperately to sell his planned Exit Strategy. As he tries, the unexpected outcome will likely be price inflation. He is under enormous political pressure, as well as foreign creditor pressure, to begin the stages of that Exit Strategy. As he pulls the levers, these hack maestros admit they cannot control the direction and destination of the vast flows. They claim they will limit further growth in the USFed Balance Sheet, but this too is a lie. They claim to have the necessary tools to limit damage, but this too is a fantasy. They will add another hot $1 trillion, admitted by one Fed official. Maybe that is a leak, maybe a plant. Who knows? Who cares?
FINAL NOTES OF ANNOYANCE
By the way, three final asides, the first of vital importance like a event within a global earthquake, the second a likely critical breakdown element, and the third as important as a small dog biting at oversized winter boots. The Madoff story has officially become a revelation of USGovt collusion with profound fraud. Questions of how stupid the Securities & Exchange Commission could be in their lax examination of the Madoff operations have turned to how this case could have developed without USGovt active participation. Recall Madoff was kept out of prison during bail proceedings, so that the USGovt could learn where the stolen funds were located. That pursuit fizzled since USGovt officials know precisely where the funds are hidden. See the tiny MidEast ally that looks northwesterly to Italy.
Rumors swirled on Tuesday of an imminent large US bank suffering a death experience. See Wells Fargo for a likely candidate. Its bank stock option put contract activity hinted of a walk down Death Row. But wait! They passed the Stress Test, did they not ?!? Yes, they did. They passed the rigged stress tests that contained very little programmed stress and avoided the entire second round of bank assaults. Even USFed Chairman Bernanke (last guy to figure out anything anything anything) noted that the commercial mortgage sector will deliver powerful losses to US banks. Those losses will show up this autumn and winter, with big blows next spring. The already insolvent big US banks will probably admit their ruin by then. Maybe when such facts are more clear, the nation will be subjected to a US Bank Holiday.
During the holiday, watch Wall Street and other Big Banks demand mergers with the scores of midsized regional banks. Instead of liquidation of Big Banks, expect them to take full control of the entire national banking structures. If you think that item was included in the Stress Test, you are a moron. The Politburo tagteams are being formed.
The second aside is to Karl Denninger. My detailed critique last week was not matched in kind. Instead he resorted to schoolyard name calling, showing a lack of depth, lack of character, a confirmation of limited vision. He has apparently missed a dozen major stories this decade that each reek of conspiracy. Let me mention only a couple. The Lehman failure was approved in order to resupply JPMorgan with $138 billion in the supposed honoring of the Lehman private accounts. Their failure was one of my fantastic stories laid out one month in advance, and permitted JPMorgan to avoid its own demise. Oh yes, JPMorgan records on Enron were located in the third World Trade Center building that was treated to demolition, without benefit of an aircraft impact. The other story is right under your nose. The appointment of Tim Geithner as Treasury Secretary is a continued conspiracy for Goldman Sachs control. My Hat Trick Letter laid out how the GSax reign of financial terror would continue by turning out yet another of its henchmen as Treasury Secretary, months in advance. No change was expected by the Jackass by the new Obama Admin. TARP funds continue to be protected without disclosure. Karl, you are a weak cog to a big machine that debunks the fraud and ongoing corruption, as conspiracy and breakdown are the signposts all around the roadways. However, you are a valued cog in a small corner, even if half blind.
The latest development in the gold world is highly favorable. Summarize by saying from the rooftops that GOLD LEADS THE CURRENCIES in price movement. Gold is not only a metal, but the most important of currencies, whose importance will soon be confirmed on a worldwide basis. The enlightened realize that if gold had been a core to the banking systems, and to the currency systems, that the entire bank credit crisis would not have occurred. The dimwitted that dominate the landscape still utter nonsense about gold, only to have their prattle squelched and overrun, as it seems so tiresome and vacant anymore.
Gold has begun to respond finally to the global ruin of money, to the Western government fiscal ruin, and to the ruin of the United States and United Kingdom banking systems. The price movement in gold & silver has suddenly turned favorable, although this is an early stage, in spite of the lack of decline in the USDollar. That is the main point. Gold has risen without a lead by the crippled USDollar. Silver has followed. In the last couple hours when this article was penned, gold has risen to 997 and gold risen to 15.90 in nice continued movement, both without any jiggle even to the USDollar or US stock market indexes. The crude oil price, subject of much debate concerning its tether as hedge to the USDollar, has been quiet as well. Gold has begun a stealth rally, an exciting one to come!
CLOSE-UP PICTURE ON GOLD
Like an EKG chart, the very short-term daily chart resembles the electrical activity of a human heart. Except this golden heart has begun to race fast. Watch as even the gold community will show doubt in believing the gold price move. They are so drained of emotion from failed rallies at the $1000 price gate, that they might need a surge in the gold price over $1200 in order to feel glad or giddy, let alone believers in the breakout. The important point is that gold has risen out of its tight 940-965 range in effect for several weeks, and RISEN. The gold price has risen without benefit of a weaker USDollar. It will next challenge the $1000 level in a natural progression. The real debate is whether the gold price will surpass the $1000 level with or without a key signature event. In my view, it simply does not matter. That is like asking whether the sun will rise with or without clouds.
Silver has moved in tandem with gold. It actually fell more in the last year than gold, and now shows more leading thrust power than gold. It has some ground to overcome. The gold/silver ratio remains too high, and must be addressed within the market for precious metals.

The USDollar has NOT demonstrated any notable weakness in the last week. It remains bound in a tight range. The past few weeks have seen the US$ DX index rise and fall, then rise and fall, only to find itself stuck inside a tight range. Numerous news items have come though, enough to tarnish the billboards. The FDIC has announced greater bank losses, and longer distressed banks in a list, a depleted fund, nil loan loss reserves, and new threats from the commercial loan segment. The USEconomy shows signs of life, but needs all sorts of canes and crutches and gurneys and intravenous infusions and boneheaded clunker programs even to struggle in walking. Most signs of life are phony anyway, assisted by twisted perceptions. The Chinese defiant rebellious position of futures contracts has colored the entire sky, except to the Wall Street folks who wear too many tinted glasses to notice.
BIGGER PICTURE FOR GOLD
The bigger picture must address the three pennant pause patterns extremely clear to view. Only the precious metals have broken out of the tight pattern, enough to warrant early conclusions. My conclusion has a headline that gold & silver now should be recognized as leading the USDollar and other currencies. The Competing Currency Wars will continue on their merciless path of global asset destruction and economic deterioration. Damage to other currencies tends to render the USDollar is less pathetic light, no more, no less. The nations that drop the USDollar standard and abandon the USDollar structures will be the first to emerge. Those nations with ample reserves will also fare well. China will remain a mystery. It hitched its wagon to the US$ parade for too long, finds itself in possession of too many US$-based bonds, and is greatly dependent upon a US$-priced global export trade. While debate continues concerning the Middle Kingdom, they will continue to disrupt the US-UK Sphere of influence and global domination.
The gold price has clearly broken out of its pennant pause pattern. The magnitude of the potential lift is roughly $70, from 910 to 980. Look for a 70-point lift from the breakout, which should take the gold price to around $1030 soon, real soon. The vast energy built over the last several months will come to power the move onward and upward.
The silver price has also clearly broken out of its pennant pause pattern. The magnitude of the potential lift is roughly $3, from 13 to 16. Look for a 300-point lift from the breakout, which should take the silver price to around $18 soon, real soon.

The USDollar remains within the bounds of its pennant pause pattern. It awaits instructions. Those instructions are likely to be a death sentence at worst, and a shove into the Third World at best, with an option of a return to normalcy not even remotely possible.
. Its USGovt debt security is gradually being recognized as in tatters, where the custodians are working feverishly to destroy whatever value is lodged within its corrupted bowels. A Banana Republic bond is what is offers, complete with Zimbabwe Printing Pre$$ support, USMilitary protection, a Goldman Sachs syndicate to uphold it, and narco war profits to provide its only weighty ballast (not to be shared).

PROPAGANDA VS REALITY
Just today, typical rubbish commentary came from the New York Stock Exchange floor. As preface, note that over 75% of all NYSE trading volume is traced to Wall Street program trading. Their handy high speed, high frequency trading, also known as insider trading that taps into stock trade orders before they hit the exchange, now dominates the majority of trading activity. If that does not qualify as brokerage pit masturbation, what does??? The commentary went like this to explain the gold price runup, which is still early and still not significant yet in its jump. The charlatans on the NYSE explain the gold price moves up as technically based (therefore not real), as owing to the weak USDollar (not true in the last couple weeks at all), as a safe haven (intriguing if an epiphany is in progress), and as the result of light volume leading to high volatility (the ultimate in lame excuses). The Wall Street gang has really lost a lot of credibility. Why anyone even listens to them is a good question. When they run out of advertisement revenue to spend, we will be forced to listen to them less. Then they will use USGovt budgets to fund their statements in advertisements on financial networks. Ooops! They already do, from the USDept Treasury, when they were given control in 1992, and have commandeered it ever since.
The Chicago trading pits integrate much more brain wattage than the NYSE floor, and far less bias based in crippling propaganda. The wisdom that emerged from Chicago pointed to the gold price rise as a result of two important factors that seem SPOT ON. Chicago buzz centers upon the perceived Chinese demand for gold, both at the official government level (sovereign wealth funds) and the popular street level (retail coin & bar buyers). The other buzz centers upon what could mushroom as one of the biggest stories to date, as it matures and develops. It is difficult even to describe accurately this factor.
The Chinese announced they will permit their state-owned firms to dishonor elements of futures derivative contracts, and thus limit their losses, on a selective contract basis. Crude oil and metal contracts were specifically mentioned. Implications will be difficult to sort out, but on its face, it appears that China has given Wall Street a Big Fat FU as it decides whether to use megaphone repeaters of the defiance in a universal or very selected fashion. Chinese leaders seem adept at shattering the front window, then making backtracks to mend relations. They take a giant step forward to disrupt the global model (see Paradigm Shift) but then talk constructively to the Wall Street and USGovt gangsters (see pretense of Status Quo). Add Japan to the mix, as they have voted out of power the party in control for a full decade. Opposition leaders have clamored for support of the USTreasury Bond only if denominated in Japanese Yen currency. They won!
PARADIGM SHIFT TIDBIT
So New York contains Mr Magoo figures in a confused state at best, and compromised Alphonse Capone figures at worst. My personal belief is that Wall Street was overrun by Capone organization elements long ago, and its toxic ruinous fruits are now painfully clear. The nation’s banking system and financial sector are in ruins, not even remotely subject to remedy. The main difference is that the Italians and Siciliani are not implicated, but rather another whose stock & trade is fraud, collusion, control, nepotism, corruption, even foreign banking hybrid schemes.
Today’s news includes a story receiving no press coverage. The real news network (INTERNET) is abuzz over an announcement by Hong Kong to yank its physical gold holdings from depositories in London, transferring them to a high security depository newly built next to the Hong Kong airport. That would match the layout used by Zurich Switzerland. MarketWatch reports that “The facility, industry professionals said, would support Hong Kong's emergence as a Swiss-style trading hub for bullion and would lessen London's status as a key settlement-and-storage center.” See the article (CLICK HERE).
A reliable banker contact mentioned in response to this story that Moscow will soon emerge as the next super hub. This is yet another link in the chain of Paradigm Shift. The shift is away from New York and London, which will have distinctions before long similar to those of Rome and Athens during their empire collapses. The United States and United Kingdom can no longer wield real power to provide for a robust and sustainable business environment during paradigm change. Focus will eventually shift to the COMEX and LBMA, the major commodity exchanges. A while back, my May article about “Hitmen Contracts to Bust COMEX” (CLICK HERE) garnered some attention, some criticism, and a little debate. The news from China and Hong Kong this week should add fuel to the fire. To the corrupt and comprised, they will remain asleep and diverted until their posts of power are dismantled and they are but ‘Lords of the Flies’ in their own shrinking worlds. This is a potentially highly toxic situation.
The short covering activity will be as amplified as the naked shorting activity had volume. See AIG shares traded in the past couple weeks for a case study, which benefit from the 20% additional shares in counterfeit from naked shorting. That is to say, the naked shorting of AIG shares added 20% to its outstanding float. Those shares must be bought back, thus a stock share price rise. The same effect might occur with gold, powerful upward moves in price from short covering of illicit short contracts. One can only hope, but fundamentals like what is seen from China add credence.
THE ONGOING DISTRACTION
The gold price has moved out of its pause pattern tight range exhibited over the last few weeks. Many detractors had claimed, what with all the ‘deflation’ out there, that the gold price would hurtle downhill toward $900 per ounce and test the bottoms. What incredibly wretched analysis they offer! The false representation, false reporting, and false interpretation of inflation has contributed to an absolute numbing of the minds and almost permanent distortion of the situation. People have no idea what inflation or deflation are anymore. My emails contain some ongoing disturbing and annoying little debates with folks who observe falling stock prices, falling earnings, increased debt distress, increased home foreclosures, and generally deteriorating economic conditions, and therefore cry stupid moans from their porches to anyone who listens. Not me, got no ears for such nonsense!
The confusion offers continued cloud cover for the unbridled unprecedented historically staggering monetary inflation in progress, certain to continue for many many months. The false definition of inflation serves as a distraction within the propaganda engines and machinery. The truth is that inflation is accelerating, if one counts the hidden monetization of USTreasury Bonds offered at bond auctions. It is hardly hidden anymore. How any rational thinking person can focus on falling prices of assets when Weimar-like monetary growth processes are firmly in place is mindboggling. They point still to phony money velocity figures issued by the US Federal Reserve to justify the money printing activity. So the official banking authorities tell us lies about the Consumer Price Inflation and lies about the Gross Domestic Product and lies about Productivity and lies about the Job Loss, but they tell us correct information about the Money Supply and correct information about the Money Velocity. Horse puckey!!
The shocks come when the appearance of some hint of normalcy returns, when some hint of stability takes root. The Money Velocity is huge when the Shadow Banking System is added to the equations. We already know that the US banking system would have crawled if not collapsed without benefit of the shadow system of credit derivatives and vast array of unregulated nonsensical corrupted contracts floating about. So a system plainly dependent upon the Shadow Banking System does not include its activity in the Money Velocity. Well, just wait until the spillover comes. The ivory tower beanie USFed Chairman Bernanke is trying desperately to sell his planned Exit Strategy. As he tries, the unexpected outcome will likely be price inflation. He is under enormous political pressure, as well as foreign creditor pressure, to begin the stages of that Exit Strategy. As he pulls the levers, these hack maestros admit they cannot control the direction and destination of the vast flows. They claim they will limit further growth in the USFed Balance Sheet, but this too is a lie. They claim to have the necessary tools to limit damage, but this too is a fantasy. They will add another hot $1 trillion, admitted by one Fed official. Maybe that is a leak, maybe a plant. Who knows? Who cares?
FINAL NOTES OF ANNOYANCE
By the way, three final asides, the first of vital importance like a event within a global earthquake, the second a likely critical breakdown element, and the third as important as a small dog biting at oversized winter boots. The Madoff story has officially become a revelation of USGovt collusion with profound fraud. Questions of how stupid the Securities & Exchange Commission could be in their lax examination of the Madoff operations have turned to how this case could have developed without USGovt active participation. Recall Madoff was kept out of prison during bail proceedings, so that the USGovt could learn where the stolen funds were located. That pursuit fizzled since USGovt officials know precisely where the funds are hidden. See the tiny MidEast ally that looks northwesterly to Italy.
Rumors swirled on Tuesday of an imminent large US bank suffering a death experience. See Wells Fargo for a likely candidate. Its bank stock option put contract activity hinted of a walk down Death Row. But wait! They passed the Stress Test, did they not ?!? Yes, they did. They passed the rigged stress tests that contained very little programmed stress and avoided the entire second round of bank assaults. Even USFed Chairman Bernanke (last guy to figure out anything anything anything) noted that the commercial mortgage sector will deliver powerful losses to US banks. Those losses will show up this autumn and winter, with big blows next spring. The already insolvent big US banks will probably admit their ruin by then. Maybe when such facts are more clear, the nation will be subjected to a US Bank Holiday.
During the holiday, watch Wall Street and other Big Banks demand mergers with the scores of midsized regional banks. Instead of liquidation of Big Banks, expect them to take full control of the entire national banking structures. If you think that item was included in the Stress Test, you are a moron. The Politburo tagteams are being formed.
The second aside is to Karl Denninger. My detailed critique last week was not matched in kind. Instead he resorted to schoolyard name calling, showing a lack of depth, lack of character, a confirmation of limited vision. He has apparently missed a dozen major stories this decade that each reek of conspiracy. Let me mention only a couple. The Lehman failure was approved in order to resupply JPMorgan with $138 billion in the supposed honoring of the Lehman private accounts. Their failure was one of my fantastic stories laid out one month in advance, and permitted JPMorgan to avoid its own demise. Oh yes, JPMorgan records on Enron were located in the third World Trade Center building that was treated to demolition, without benefit of an aircraft impact. The other story is right under your nose. The appointment of Tim Geithner as Treasury Secretary is a continued conspiracy for Goldman Sachs control. My Hat Trick Letter laid out how the GSax reign of financial terror would continue by turning out yet another of its henchmen as Treasury Secretary, months in advance. No change was expected by the Jackass by the new Obama Admin. TARP funds continue to be protected without disclosure. Karl, you are a weak cog to a big machine that debunks the fraud and ongoing corruption, as conspiracy and breakdown are the signposts all around the roadways. However, you are a valued cog in a small corner, even if half blind.
OPEC to Keep Production Quota Steady a Third Time, Survey Shows
(Bloomberg) -- OPEC will probably leave production quotas unchanged for a third time when it meets in Vienna next week, while urging members to complete record supply cuts announced in late 2008, a Bloomberg survey showed. Oil has gained 54 percent this year, last month reaching the $75 level identified by Saudi King Abdullah as satisfactory for consumers and producers. The rebound in prices may have weakened the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ determination to drain excess inventories from the market.
All of the 26 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News before OPEC’s Sept. 9 summit predicted the organization will maintain its target of at 24.845 million barrels a day. Jose Maria de Botelho Vasconcelos, OPEC President and Angolan oil minister, said yesterday the group would hold its current course to avoid higher oil prices derailing the global economic recovery. “Things are proceeding as OPEC would like them to with prices around $70 a barrel,” said Leo Drollas, deputy director of the Centre for Global Energy Studies in London. “If they tighten the taps prices could go much higher and bring the recovery grinding to a halt.”
Ministers from Algeria, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya and Qatar have signaled in the past three weeks that they support the existing quota. Oil traded at about $69 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange today. The 11 members bound by the quota system, all bar Iraq, have collectively increased production for the past five months, leaving their compliance rate with the 4.2 million barrel-a-day reductions agreed last year at about 70 percent. Those 11 states supplied 26.055 million barrels a day last month, according to Bloomberg estimates, compared with a ceiling of 24.845 million.
Spending Commitments
While most members in the Persian Gulf are pumping around or below their specified allocation, other countries with higher domestic spending commitments such as Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela are over-producing. This has frustrated the group’s bid to reduce stockpiles held in the world’s most advanced economies in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Inventories in OECD nations equated to about 62 days worth of consumption in June, according to the International Energy Agency. OPEC ministers have said they would like to lower stockpiles to between 52 and 54 days worth of demand. Reaching the goal will take another year if the organization maintains current output and refrains from flouting quotas any further, according to Societe Generale SA.
‘Erode Overhang’
“If they can hold the line on crude production and minimize upward output creep, then as long as the global economy continues to recover demand growth will erode the inventory overhang,” the Paris-based bank’s head of oil research Mike Wittner said.
OPEC hasn’t invited non-members who sometimes attend such as Russia and Oman to the Sept. 9 meeting. Ministers will gather at the group’s headquarters after dark at 9:30 p.m. because the summit falls in the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. The group’s two earlier meetings this year were in March and May. Bloomberg surveyed 26 oil analysts in London and the U.S. this week.
OPEC’s 12 members are Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. After next week’s gathering the group is next scheduled to meet in December in Luanda, Angola.
All of the 26 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News before OPEC’s Sept. 9 summit predicted the organization will maintain its target of at 24.845 million barrels a day. Jose Maria de Botelho Vasconcelos, OPEC President and Angolan oil minister, said yesterday the group would hold its current course to avoid higher oil prices derailing the global economic recovery. “Things are proceeding as OPEC would like them to with prices around $70 a barrel,” said Leo Drollas, deputy director of the Centre for Global Energy Studies in London. “If they tighten the taps prices could go much higher and bring the recovery grinding to a halt.”
Ministers from Algeria, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya and Qatar have signaled in the past three weeks that they support the existing quota. Oil traded at about $69 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange today. The 11 members bound by the quota system, all bar Iraq, have collectively increased production for the past five months, leaving their compliance rate with the 4.2 million barrel-a-day reductions agreed last year at about 70 percent. Those 11 states supplied 26.055 million barrels a day last month, according to Bloomberg estimates, compared with a ceiling of 24.845 million.
Spending Commitments
While most members in the Persian Gulf are pumping around or below their specified allocation, other countries with higher domestic spending commitments such as Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela are over-producing. This has frustrated the group’s bid to reduce stockpiles held in the world’s most advanced economies in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Inventories in OECD nations equated to about 62 days worth of consumption in June, according to the International Energy Agency. OPEC ministers have said they would like to lower stockpiles to between 52 and 54 days worth of demand. Reaching the goal will take another year if the organization maintains current output and refrains from flouting quotas any further, according to Societe Generale SA.
‘Erode Overhang’
“If they can hold the line on crude production and minimize upward output creep, then as long as the global economy continues to recover demand growth will erode the inventory overhang,” the Paris-based bank’s head of oil research Mike Wittner said.
OPEC hasn’t invited non-members who sometimes attend such as Russia and Oman to the Sept. 9 meeting. Ministers will gather at the group’s headquarters after dark at 9:30 p.m. because the summit falls in the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. The group’s two earlier meetings this year were in March and May. Bloomberg surveyed 26 oil analysts in London and the U.S. this week.
OPEC’s 12 members are Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. After next week’s gathering the group is next scheduled to meet in December in Luanda, Angola.
Thursday, September 3, 2009
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold |
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, an intraday low is in place at 67.43 and outlook is turned neutral for the moment. Nevertheless, another fall is still in favor as long as 71.60 minor resistance holds. Below 67.43 will target 65.23 support next. As discussed before, sustained trading below near term trend line will affirm the case that whole rise from 58.32 has indeed ended at 75.0 already. Break of 65.23 will confirm and target 58.32 support next. On the upside, above 71.60 will flip intraday bias back to the upside for a test on 75.0 again and probably bring rally resumption to next long term fibonacci resistance at 76.77 (38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2).
In the bigger picture, there is no change in the view that rise from 33.2 is a correction to whole down trend form 147.27. Hence, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) and bring reversal finally. On the downside, break of 65.23 support will now be an important signal that crude oil has already topped out and will turn focus back to 58.32 key support for confirmation.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, an intraday low is in place at 67.43 and outlook is turned neutral for the moment. Nevertheless, another fall is still in favor as long as 71.60 minor resistance holds. Below 67.43 will target 65.23 support next. As discussed before, sustained trading below near term trend line will affirm the case that whole rise from 58.32 has indeed ended at 75.0 already. Break of 65.23 will confirm and target 58.32 support next. On the upside, above 71.60 will flip intraday bias back to the upside for a test on 75.0 again and probably bring rally resumption to next long term fibonacci resistance at 76.77 (38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2).
In the bigger picture, there is no change in the view that rise from 33.2 is a correction to whole down trend form 147.27. Hence, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) and bring reversal finally. On the downside, break of 65.23 support will now be an important signal that crude oil has already topped out and will turn focus back to 58.32 key support for confirmation.
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold |
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's sharp rally sent it through 974.3 resistance as well as upper trend line resistance, suggesting recent triangle consolidation might be completed already. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside for a test of 992.1/1007.7 resistance zone next. On the downside, below 974.8 will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring consolidation. But downside should be contained above e959.2 support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, the break of the upper trend line resistance suggests that triangle consolidation from 1007.7 might have completed already. Retest of 992.1/1007.7 resistance should be seen and break there will confirm and target 1033.9 high next. On the downside, below 931.3 support will argue that consolidation from 1007.7 is still in progress for another fall to 904.8 and below before completion.
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's sharp rally sent it through 974.3 resistance as well as upper trend line resistance, suggesting recent triangle consolidation might be completed already. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside for a test of 992.1/1007.7 resistance zone next. On the downside, below 974.8 will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring consolidation. But downside should be contained above e959.2 support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, the break of the upper trend line resistance suggests that triangle consolidation from 1007.7 might have completed already. Retest of 992.1/1007.7 resistance should be seen and break there will confirm and target 1033.9 high next. On the downside, below 931.3 support will argue that consolidation from 1007.7 is still in progress for another fall to 904.8 and below before completion.
Obama the Last Emperor, the Crash of America
By: Submissions
Politics
Professor Igor Panarin, whose book “The Crash of America” is just out, claims that by November the book will be yesterday’s news.Panarin believes President Obama will lead his country to a breakup. Panarin compares Obama to former Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev.“Obama is “the president of hope”, but in a year there won’t be any hope. He’s practically another Gorbachev – he likes to talk but hasn’t really managed to do anything. Gorbachev at least had been a secretary of a regional communist party administration, whereas Obama was just a social worker. His mentality is totally different. He’s a nice person and talks nicely – but he’s not a leader and will take America to a crash. When Americans understand that – it will be like a bomb explosion,” Panarin
Politics
Professor Igor Panarin, whose book “The Crash of America” is just out, claims that by November the book will be yesterday’s news.Panarin believes President Obama will lead his country to a breakup. Panarin compares Obama to former Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev.“Obama is “the president of hope”, but in a year there won’t be any hope. He’s practically another Gorbachev – he likes to talk but hasn’t really managed to do anything. Gorbachev at least had been a secretary of a regional communist party administration, whereas Obama was just a social worker. His mentality is totally different. He’s a nice person and talks nicely – but he’s not a leader and will take America to a crash. When Americans understand that – it will be like a bomb explosion,” Panarin
Rules Of Trading - From A Wall Street Trader
By Larry Doyle on September 3, 2009 | More Posts By Larry Doyle | Author's Website
I loved my 15 years worth of trading experience on Wall Street. I thrived on the energy, competitiveness, and discipline critically important to generating long term profitability. While many media outlets focus on the energy and competitiveness involved in trading, rest assured the real key to successful trading and investing is discipline. In my opinion, this characteristic receives far less focus and attention than it deserves.I believe discipline is both an intrinsic and acquired trait. In fact, often the real benefits from a disciplined approach are the lessons learned from being undisciplined. Believe me, I learned many of these lessons early on and throughout my career on Wall Street. I accrued plenty of losses in the process.
How did I develop and maintain a disciplined approach during my 23 year Wall Street career? Very simply, I kept a written list of ‘trading rules’ on a piece of paper typically taped to my computer terminal.High five to AS with whom I developed these rules back in the mid 1980s. These rules not only helped me generate profits, but more importantly kept me from making trading mistakes and thus avert losses.
Let’s review the rules that I applied to trading mortgage-backed securities in the 1980s and 1990s. In many respects, I continue to apply a semblance of these rules today.
LD’s Rules of Trading
1. Market Goes in the Direction Which Hurts the Most People
I would check the stochastics regularly to monitor when the bond market (typically the government bond market) was approaching an overbought or oversold condition. Assessing this measure is decidedly more challenging currently given the presence of Uncle Sam in the marketplace.
2. Never Short a Specified Bond
How often I would see traders short specified bonds without any appreciation for the available float. Initial short sales may appear to be profitable only to turn into nightmares when the trader had to find the bond for delivery to the buyer.
3. Never Set Up for a Trade
This rule specifically addresses a trader’s inclination to establish a trading position based upon color from a client that the client himself planned to enter into the trade. Experience taught me that often the client would find a reason not to execute the trade and now the trader was stuck with the position.
4. Know Your Customer . . . as Certain Accounts Lie
I would work tirelessly at developing strong customer relationships in order to transact quality business. That said, there were more than a handful of clients who would intentionally misrepresent situations. These customers typically viewed trading strictly as a zero sum game. I would treat them accordingly.
5. Greater Fool Theory
Just because somebody would buy or sell a security at a certain price does not necessarily mean the trader is fully informed and the price is reflective of real value. Similarly, I would not pretend to believe that my opinion was always fully informed. Humility never hurts. Combining these thoughts: never buy something just because somebody else is. Do your homework.
6. Stay Out of Meetings
The point of this rule is that meetings detract from focusing on the markets. If I were involved in a meeting, I would work to keep it brief and on point. I abhorred people who spoke at length in order to hear themselves talk. I would intentionally establish the premise of a meeting prior to sitting down and attempt to drive to the conclusion as quickly as possible. In that manner, I could return to focusing on the markets and trading.
These rules were invaluable. I would never generate the most money that came from swinging for the fences, but by continually hitting singles and doubles I was able to score plenty of runs.Discipline does not necessarily generate excitement, but it is the key to long term success.
I loved my 15 years worth of trading experience on Wall Street. I thrived on the energy, competitiveness, and discipline critically important to generating long term profitability. While many media outlets focus on the energy and competitiveness involved in trading, rest assured the real key to successful trading and investing is discipline. In my opinion, this characteristic receives far less focus and attention than it deserves.I believe discipline is both an intrinsic and acquired trait. In fact, often the real benefits from a disciplined approach are the lessons learned from being undisciplined. Believe me, I learned many of these lessons early on and throughout my career on Wall Street. I accrued plenty of losses in the process.
How did I develop and maintain a disciplined approach during my 23 year Wall Street career? Very simply, I kept a written list of ‘trading rules’ on a piece of paper typically taped to my computer terminal.High five to AS with whom I developed these rules back in the mid 1980s. These rules not only helped me generate profits, but more importantly kept me from making trading mistakes and thus avert losses.
Let’s review the rules that I applied to trading mortgage-backed securities in the 1980s and 1990s. In many respects, I continue to apply a semblance of these rules today.
LD’s Rules of Trading
1. Market Goes in the Direction Which Hurts the Most People
I would check the stochastics regularly to monitor when the bond market (typically the government bond market) was approaching an overbought or oversold condition. Assessing this measure is decidedly more challenging currently given the presence of Uncle Sam in the marketplace.
2. Never Short a Specified Bond
How often I would see traders short specified bonds without any appreciation for the available float. Initial short sales may appear to be profitable only to turn into nightmares when the trader had to find the bond for delivery to the buyer.
3. Never Set Up for a Trade
This rule specifically addresses a trader’s inclination to establish a trading position based upon color from a client that the client himself planned to enter into the trade. Experience taught me that often the client would find a reason not to execute the trade and now the trader was stuck with the position.
4. Know Your Customer . . . as Certain Accounts Lie
I would work tirelessly at developing strong customer relationships in order to transact quality business. That said, there were more than a handful of clients who would intentionally misrepresent situations. These customers typically viewed trading strictly as a zero sum game. I would treat them accordingly.
5. Greater Fool Theory
Just because somebody would buy or sell a security at a certain price does not necessarily mean the trader is fully informed and the price is reflective of real value. Similarly, I would not pretend to believe that my opinion was always fully informed. Humility never hurts. Combining these thoughts: never buy something just because somebody else is. Do your homework.
6. Stay Out of Meetings
The point of this rule is that meetings detract from focusing on the markets. If I were involved in a meeting, I would work to keep it brief and on point. I abhorred people who spoke at length in order to hear themselves talk. I would intentionally establish the premise of a meeting prior to sitting down and attempt to drive to the conclusion as quickly as possible. In that manner, I could return to focusing on the markets and trading.
These rules were invaluable. I would never generate the most money that came from swinging for the fences, but by continually hitting singles and doubles I was able to score plenty of runs.Discipline does not necessarily generate excitement, but it is the key to long term success.
Six Things I Learned From The Financial Crisis
By Dividend Growth Investor on September 2, 2009
I started blogging about dividend growth stocks in January 2008; right around the time the market started its slide. Fast forward 18 months and we have seen it all: from companies which were once deemed too big to fail and which were later acquired for pennies on the dollar to the blowups of several prominent pyramid schemes and hedge funds. Back in early 2008 most investors were not fully aware of the dangers that the real estate implosion would have on the overall economy. Some aggressive investors lost much more than S&P 500 (^GSPC: 994.75 0.00 0.00%) in 2008 due to their heavy concentration in certain sectors built at the highs of the market, use of excessive leverage and chasing “broken companies” which offered suspiciously high yields, which proved unsustainable.In order for investors to become better at allocating capital, it is important to learn from ones mistakes. I have identified several mistakes, which could have saved investors billions had they known about them in the first place:
1) Diversify your portfolio. We often hear that diversification is dead and the fact that in a crisis almost all assets go down in sync. While this is somewhat true, a simple diversification strategy where an investor held some allocation to government fixed income, would have resulted in smaller losses. There are several bond ETF’s which hold US Treasuries. Examples include iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT: 97.46 0.00 0.00%) and iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF: 92.08 0.00 0.00%). It is also important to understand that simply adding different asset classes in a portfolio may not provide any diversification benefits. For example adding fixed income from High-Yield Bonds would not have provided any diversification benefits, as most junk bonds represent companies with low credit ratings, which have a higher chance of defaulting during a crisis. Several Junk Bond ETF’s such as iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bd (HYG: 80.42 0.00 0.00%) were introduced right before the financial crisis.In addition to that, investors who concentrated their portfolios in just a handful of companies (10 - 15) would have under performed their benchmarks even if they had just one AIG (AIG: 37.95 0.00 0.00%) or Bank of America (BAC: 16.27 0.00 0.00%) in it. Both companies were considered the best of the best, before the crisis affected them and they had to seek government funds, while reducing or eliminating distributions to shareholders.
2) Build positions over time. While dollar cost averaging provides inferior returns in strong markets relative to a lump sum investment, the chance of a black swan effect ala 2008 makes it preferable for investors to build their positions slowly. This would be another control that would prevent your portfolio from collapsing, in case your stock analysis didn’t work out as planned.
3) Don’t chase high yield stocks blindly. Back in 2008, many financial stocks had very attractive dividend yields in the low double digits. Some of those like Citigroup (C: 4.56 0.00 0.00%), Bank of America (BAC: 16.27 0.00 0.00%) and Fifth Third Bank (FITB: 9.918 0.00 0.00%) had long histories of consistent dividend increases each year. The problem was that these stocks could not sustain paying their distributions, since they were earning much less than what they were paying out. At the end of the day these companies had nowhere else to go but cut their distributions, which was a strong sell indicator for many dividend growth investors. Most of the dividend cuts in the financial sector were followed by massive implosions in shareholders value from companies such as Citigroup, Lehman Brothers, Fannie Mae (FNM: 1.37 0.00 0.00%) and Freddie Mac (FRE: 1.64 0.00 0.00%).
4) Don’t use excessive leverage. Using leverage means borrowing money to invest in something for the purpose of magnifying your profit potential. When you are right, leverage works in your favor. For example if you purchased a stock on margin, and it increased 10%, your leveraged return would be almost 20%. When you are wrong though, leverage could result in disastrous results and bankruptcy. Using the same example, a leveraged bet on the wrong side of the table where the underlying fell by 10% results in a 20% loss.The whose housing mess was created by allowing people who cannot afford expensive houses speculating on housing prices enjoying double digit increases for eternity, while being heavily leveraged. Once housing prices started dropping like a rock, panicked sellers helped exacerbate the problem by adding more fuel to the already severe drop in values. This caused interest payments on mortgage backed securities to not be paid, which triggered collapses in financial companies such as Ambac (ABK: 1.49 0.00 0.00%) and Fannie Mae which then sent shockwaves throughout the world.
5) Don’t overpay for stocks. Investors often overpay for stocks because of the recency phenomenon, where they discount double-digit growth indefinitely. This leads to purchasing stocks with unacceptably low dividend yields, high P/E ratios and rosy predictions for strong dividend growth for eternity. Such conditions are simply unsustainable. The so called “Tech Four Horsemen” that CNBC’s “Fast Money” touted in the last quarter of 2007, Apple (AAPL: 165.18 0.00 0.00%), Research in Motion (RIMM: 73.91 0.00 0.00%), Google (GOOG: 453.01 0.00 0.00%) and Garmin (GRMN: 31.86 0.00 0.00%) all spotted unusually high valuations until growth expectations declined substantially. Investors suffered huge losses in the process.
6) Understand what you are investing into. It is important to understand what one is getting into by reading a prospectus for example. Many mortgage-backed securities were marketed to individuals and institutions as no risk investments. Investors who took the trouble to check the 500-page prospectus of such investments would have avoided severe losses. It is important to keep simple and within your circle of competence. Another example includes some dividend ETFs which were supposed to offer stable income, but which ended up heavily concentrated in financials and REITs. Retirees who depended on those ETFs rather than individual stock selection for income, were caught by surprise. Even the S&P Dividend Aristocrats Index ETF (SDY: 42.07 0.00 0.00%) and Dow Jones Select Dividend Index (DVY: 39.06 0.00 0.00%) at some point in time included dividend stocks which shouldn’t have been there. Even now the Dividend Aristocrats Index includes stocks like General Electric (GE: 13.20 0.00 0.00%), Pfizer (PFE: 16.28 0.00 0.00%) and Gannett (GCI: 7.95 0.00 0.00%) which should be avoided by dividend investors.
While this list is not meant to be a comprehensive all-inclusive one, it is a great starting point for both novice and experienced investors. I believe that investing has never been a perfect science, but one could achieve perfection by learning from their mistakes and not repeating them over and over.
I started blogging about dividend growth stocks in January 2008; right around the time the market started its slide. Fast forward 18 months and we have seen it all: from companies which were once deemed too big to fail and which were later acquired for pennies on the dollar to the blowups of several prominent pyramid schemes and hedge funds. Back in early 2008 most investors were not fully aware of the dangers that the real estate implosion would have on the overall economy. Some aggressive investors lost much more than S&P 500 (^GSPC: 994.75 0.00 0.00%) in 2008 due to their heavy concentration in certain sectors built at the highs of the market, use of excessive leverage and chasing “broken companies” which offered suspiciously high yields, which proved unsustainable.In order for investors to become better at allocating capital, it is important to learn from ones mistakes. I have identified several mistakes, which could have saved investors billions had they known about them in the first place:
1) Diversify your portfolio. We often hear that diversification is dead and the fact that in a crisis almost all assets go down in sync. While this is somewhat true, a simple diversification strategy where an investor held some allocation to government fixed income, would have resulted in smaller losses. There are several bond ETF’s which hold US Treasuries. Examples include iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT: 97.46 0.00 0.00%) and iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF: 92.08 0.00 0.00%). It is also important to understand that simply adding different asset classes in a portfolio may not provide any diversification benefits. For example adding fixed income from High-Yield Bonds would not have provided any diversification benefits, as most junk bonds represent companies with low credit ratings, which have a higher chance of defaulting during a crisis. Several Junk Bond ETF’s such as iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bd (HYG: 80.42 0.00 0.00%) were introduced right before the financial crisis.In addition to that, investors who concentrated their portfolios in just a handful of companies (10 - 15) would have under performed their benchmarks even if they had just one AIG (AIG: 37.95 0.00 0.00%) or Bank of America (BAC: 16.27 0.00 0.00%) in it. Both companies were considered the best of the best, before the crisis affected them and they had to seek government funds, while reducing or eliminating distributions to shareholders.
2) Build positions over time. While dollar cost averaging provides inferior returns in strong markets relative to a lump sum investment, the chance of a black swan effect ala 2008 makes it preferable for investors to build their positions slowly. This would be another control that would prevent your portfolio from collapsing, in case your stock analysis didn’t work out as planned.
3) Don’t chase high yield stocks blindly. Back in 2008, many financial stocks had very attractive dividend yields in the low double digits. Some of those like Citigroup (C: 4.56 0.00 0.00%), Bank of America (BAC: 16.27 0.00 0.00%) and Fifth Third Bank (FITB: 9.918 0.00 0.00%) had long histories of consistent dividend increases each year. The problem was that these stocks could not sustain paying their distributions, since they were earning much less than what they were paying out. At the end of the day these companies had nowhere else to go but cut their distributions, which was a strong sell indicator for many dividend growth investors. Most of the dividend cuts in the financial sector were followed by massive implosions in shareholders value from companies such as Citigroup, Lehman Brothers, Fannie Mae (FNM: 1.37 0.00 0.00%) and Freddie Mac (FRE: 1.64 0.00 0.00%).
4) Don’t use excessive leverage. Using leverage means borrowing money to invest in something for the purpose of magnifying your profit potential. When you are right, leverage works in your favor. For example if you purchased a stock on margin, and it increased 10%, your leveraged return would be almost 20%. When you are wrong though, leverage could result in disastrous results and bankruptcy. Using the same example, a leveraged bet on the wrong side of the table where the underlying fell by 10% results in a 20% loss.The whose housing mess was created by allowing people who cannot afford expensive houses speculating on housing prices enjoying double digit increases for eternity, while being heavily leveraged. Once housing prices started dropping like a rock, panicked sellers helped exacerbate the problem by adding more fuel to the already severe drop in values. This caused interest payments on mortgage backed securities to not be paid, which triggered collapses in financial companies such as Ambac (ABK: 1.49 0.00 0.00%) and Fannie Mae which then sent shockwaves throughout the world.
5) Don’t overpay for stocks. Investors often overpay for stocks because of the recency phenomenon, where they discount double-digit growth indefinitely. This leads to purchasing stocks with unacceptably low dividend yields, high P/E ratios and rosy predictions for strong dividend growth for eternity. Such conditions are simply unsustainable. The so called “Tech Four Horsemen” that CNBC’s “Fast Money” touted in the last quarter of 2007, Apple (AAPL: 165.18 0.00 0.00%), Research in Motion (RIMM: 73.91 0.00 0.00%), Google (GOOG: 453.01 0.00 0.00%) and Garmin (GRMN: 31.86 0.00 0.00%) all spotted unusually high valuations until growth expectations declined substantially. Investors suffered huge losses in the process.
6) Understand what you are investing into. It is important to understand what one is getting into by reading a prospectus for example. Many mortgage-backed securities were marketed to individuals and institutions as no risk investments. Investors who took the trouble to check the 500-page prospectus of such investments would have avoided severe losses. It is important to keep simple and within your circle of competence. Another example includes some dividend ETFs which were supposed to offer stable income, but which ended up heavily concentrated in financials and REITs. Retirees who depended on those ETFs rather than individual stock selection for income, were caught by surprise. Even the S&P Dividend Aristocrats Index ETF (SDY: 42.07 0.00 0.00%) and Dow Jones Select Dividend Index (DVY: 39.06 0.00 0.00%) at some point in time included dividend stocks which shouldn’t have been there. Even now the Dividend Aristocrats Index includes stocks like General Electric (GE: 13.20 0.00 0.00%), Pfizer (PFE: 16.28 0.00 0.00%) and Gannett (GCI: 7.95 0.00 0.00%) which should be avoided by dividend investors.
While this list is not meant to be a comprehensive all-inclusive one, it is a great starting point for both novice and experienced investors. I believe that investing has never been a perfect science, but one could achieve perfection by learning from their mistakes and not repeating them over and over.
Daily Technical Analysis Forex/DJIA/Gold
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank
EURUSD
Comment: Messy, random small moves at the upper edge of a 'triangle' consolidation pattern, though note that one-month at-the-money implied volatility has picked up a little. The Euro is no longer overbought though momentum is nil. We feel that the long term trend to US dollar weakness will resume, if not this month then in October.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.4275; stop below 1.4085. Short term target 1.4350.
Direction of Trade: → Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.4252 " 1.4283
1.4177 1.4295
1.411 1.4328
1.4085 1.4448**
1.4045* 1.45
GBPUSD
Comment: Trading within a thinning Ichimoku 'cloud' and there is a small chance that Cable may try and hold above the top of the formation.Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6315; stop well below 1.6100. First target 1.6380, then 1.6600. Direction of Trade: → Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.6237 " 1.6324
1.6113 1.6382
1.6033 1.65
1.5985 1.656
1.594 1.6665
USDJPY
Comment: Dropping towards July's low at 91.73, the nine-day moving average limiting highs and putting the US dollar into oversold territory. A break below 91.50 should see implied at-the-money volatility increase significantly and increasing bearish momentum.Strategy: Sell at 92.40, adding to 93.00; stop above 93.55. Short term target 92.00/91.75 with moves below here likely to becoming increasingly erratic
Direction of Trade: → Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
92.00 " 92.41
91.94 93.06
91.88/91.73* 93.55
91.5 94.08
90.85* 95.07
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
Rupee : Rupee reached our exact target of 49.20 levels and corrected lower. We would favour going longs around 48.75 levels (importers cover). Despite up move in stock markets rupee is still showing bearish moves which indicates bearishness in rupee. Moroever slight strength in dollar across pushes rupee down severely. We maintain further bearishness in rupee in medium term. Only and Only if we get support from dollar strength and bearish momentum in stocks ,commodities and dollar index we could see rupee at 50 levels soon. Bearish (USD/INR : 48.86)
Euro : Euro had a massive sell off yesterday and took trendline support close to 1.4180 levels. Staying below 1.4180 levels would break the weekly trendline for the pair.. Shorts can be initiated around 1.4350 to 1.4400 and longs around 1.4180 levels. (EUR/USD 1.4275) Neutral
Sterling : Pound is holding below its weekly trendline resistance at 1.6450. Look at selling at upticks. Immediate sell target is 1.6350-6400 levels. Staying below 1.6200 would target 1.58. (GBP/USD 1.6262) . Bearish
Yen : Yen has again entered the weekly triangle consolidation pattern between 92 to 98 levels. Risk aversion and Risk appetite has been playing sea-saw since last couple of months. The triangle pattern is very much visible within the weekly range. Buy at dips close to 92-93 and sell at 97-98 levels remains the strategy.Medium term target is 90. (USD/JPY 92.42) Rangebound
Aud : Aud maintain the bullish bias. Buying at dips close to important supports remains the best strategy in the current market scenario.Only a continous move below 0.8200 would break the trendline and stand bearish for the pair. (AUD/USD -0.8373) In Correction Mode
Gold : Gold broke the weekly trendline resistance and had a bullish momentum yesterday despite weakness in equity and oil prices as investors considered it to be a safe haven . Buyers can hold long positions for the target $985.(Gold - 976.90) Bullish.
Dollar Index : The Dollar Index (basket against 6 currencies with EUR accounting for 57% of the basket) needs to break the levels of 79.50 to maintain strength again. Keep an eye on this level. (Dollar Index - 78.30).Bullish
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 9270.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 9244.50, where correction also can be. Then follows 9233.25. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 9202.50. Continuation will bring 9182.30 and 9163.12. Today's resistance: - 9360.00 and 9415.30(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 9452.81, where a correction may happen. Then follows 9489.37, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 9516.10. Continuation would bring 9543.62 and 9588.80.
EURUSD
Comment: Messy, random small moves at the upper edge of a 'triangle' consolidation pattern, though note that one-month at-the-money implied volatility has picked up a little. The Euro is no longer overbought though momentum is nil. We feel that the long term trend to US dollar weakness will resume, if not this month then in October.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.4275; stop below 1.4085. Short term target 1.4350.
Direction of Trade: → Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.4252 " 1.4283
1.4177 1.4295
1.411 1.4328
1.4085 1.4448**
1.4045* 1.45
GBPUSD
Comment: Trading within a thinning Ichimoku 'cloud' and there is a small chance that Cable may try and hold above the top of the formation.Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6315; stop well below 1.6100. First target 1.6380, then 1.6600. Direction of Trade: → Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.6237 " 1.6324
1.6113 1.6382
1.6033 1.65
1.5985 1.656
1.594 1.6665
USDJPY
Comment: Dropping towards July's low at 91.73, the nine-day moving average limiting highs and putting the US dollar into oversold territory. A break below 91.50 should see implied at-the-money volatility increase significantly and increasing bearish momentum.Strategy: Sell at 92.40, adding to 93.00; stop above 93.55. Short term target 92.00/91.75 with moves below here likely to becoming increasingly erratic
Direction of Trade: → Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
92.00 " 92.41
91.94 93.06
91.88/91.73* 93.55
91.5 94.08
90.85* 95.07
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
Rupee : Rupee reached our exact target of 49.20 levels and corrected lower. We would favour going longs around 48.75 levels (importers cover). Despite up move in stock markets rupee is still showing bearish moves which indicates bearishness in rupee. Moroever slight strength in dollar across pushes rupee down severely. We maintain further bearishness in rupee in medium term. Only and Only if we get support from dollar strength and bearish momentum in stocks ,commodities and dollar index we could see rupee at 50 levels soon. Bearish (USD/INR : 48.86)
Euro : Euro had a massive sell off yesterday and took trendline support close to 1.4180 levels. Staying below 1.4180 levels would break the weekly trendline for the pair.. Shorts can be initiated around 1.4350 to 1.4400 and longs around 1.4180 levels. (EUR/USD 1.4275) Neutral
Sterling : Pound is holding below its weekly trendline resistance at 1.6450. Look at selling at upticks. Immediate sell target is 1.6350-6400 levels. Staying below 1.6200 would target 1.58. (GBP/USD 1.6262) . Bearish
Yen : Yen has again entered the weekly triangle consolidation pattern between 92 to 98 levels. Risk aversion and Risk appetite has been playing sea-saw since last couple of months. The triangle pattern is very much visible within the weekly range. Buy at dips close to 92-93 and sell at 97-98 levels remains the strategy.Medium term target is 90. (USD/JPY 92.42) Rangebound
Aud : Aud maintain the bullish bias. Buying at dips close to important supports remains the best strategy in the current market scenario.Only a continous move below 0.8200 would break the trendline and stand bearish for the pair. (AUD/USD -0.8373) In Correction Mode
Gold : Gold broke the weekly trendline resistance and had a bullish momentum yesterday despite weakness in equity and oil prices as investors considered it to be a safe haven . Buyers can hold long positions for the target $985.(Gold - 976.90) Bullish.
Dollar Index : The Dollar Index (basket against 6 currencies with EUR accounting for 57% of the basket) needs to break the levels of 79.50 to maintain strength again. Keep an eye on this level. (Dollar Index - 78.30).Bullish
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 9270.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 9244.50, where correction also can be. Then follows 9233.25. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 9202.50. Continuation will bring 9182.30 and 9163.12. Today's resistance: - 9360.00 and 9415.30(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 9452.81, where a correction may happen. Then follows 9489.37, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 9516.10. Continuation would bring 9543.62 and 9588.80.
Record Assets Posted For ETF Industry
By Tom Lydon on September 2, 2009 | More Posts By Tom Lydon | Author's Website
For the first half of 2009, exchange traded funds (ETFs) had a decent period in which they accumulated enough assets to break records. The numbers for the first six months of 2009 within the ETF industry are in, and they had a decent start, especially considering the state of the markets. According to Barclays, the U.S. assets in ETFs hit a high of $582.4 billion. The results top the industry’s previous high of $581 billion, set in December 2007, reports Luisa Beltran for Ignites.
So far, the U.S. ETF industry has gained $53.4 billion in net inflows. In reality, the most substantial growth came in earlier this year and during the fourth quarter of 2008, crediting the market meltdown for the ETF industry growth.As of the end of July, 2009, there were 706 U.S.-listed ETFs available, and 659 funds are sitting the pipeline waiting for registration and approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). So far, the largest ETF providers are:
* Barclays Global Investors: $310.42 billion in assets under management
* State Street Global Advisors: $152.1 billion in assets under management
* Vanguard: $66.88 billion in assets under management
For the first half of 2009, exchange traded funds (ETFs) had a decent period in which they accumulated enough assets to break records. The numbers for the first six months of 2009 within the ETF industry are in, and they had a decent start, especially considering the state of the markets. According to Barclays, the U.S. assets in ETFs hit a high of $582.4 billion. The results top the industry’s previous high of $581 billion, set in December 2007, reports Luisa Beltran for Ignites.
So far, the U.S. ETF industry has gained $53.4 billion in net inflows. In reality, the most substantial growth came in earlier this year and during the fourth quarter of 2008, crediting the market meltdown for the ETF industry growth.As of the end of July, 2009, there were 706 U.S.-listed ETFs available, and 659 funds are sitting the pipeline waiting for registration and approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). So far, the largest ETF providers are:
* Barclays Global Investors: $310.42 billion in assets under management
* State Street Global Advisors: $152.1 billion in assets under management
* Vanguard: $66.88 billion in assets under management
Buy Apple Options to Boost Return on Stock, Credit Suisse Says
(Bloomberg) -- Apple Inc. shareholders should use bullish options to boost returns because shares of the iPhone maker may climb in the next four months on increasing smartphone and Macintosh computer sales, Credit Suisse Group AG said. Equity derivatives strategist Sveinn Palsson recommended shareholders use a “call spread” strategy, buying a January $180 call and selling two January $200 calls, both of which expire Jan. 15. Apple climbed 0.6 percent to $166.35 at 12:20 p.m. in New York, extending its advance this year to 95 percent.
Credit Suisse analyst Bill Shope raised his share-price forecast to $200 yesterday from $175, citing expectations for a “recovery” in Macintosh sales and that iPhone demand this year will exceed his earlier projection. He kept his “outperform” rating on the shares, which peaked at $199.83 in December 2007. “This trade will double the returns on Apple between $180 and $200,” Palsson wrote. “Should Apple advance to $200, one stands to earn returns as if it had advanced to $220.”
The net cost of the spread is about 90 cents, the New York- based strategist wrote. Call spreads reduce the cost of buying a bullish option because investors get money for selling higher- strike calls, which also caps return. In this trade, returns top out at $220, Palsson wrote.
Options are derivatives that give the right to buy or sell a security at a set price and date. Investors use options to guard against fluctuations in the price of securities they own, speculate on share-price moves or bet that volatility, or stock swings, will increase or decrease.
Credit Suisse analyst Bill Shope raised his share-price forecast to $200 yesterday from $175, citing expectations for a “recovery” in Macintosh sales and that iPhone demand this year will exceed his earlier projection. He kept his “outperform” rating on the shares, which peaked at $199.83 in December 2007. “This trade will double the returns on Apple between $180 and $200,” Palsson wrote. “Should Apple advance to $200, one stands to earn returns as if it had advanced to $220.”
The net cost of the spread is about 90 cents, the New York- based strategist wrote. Call spreads reduce the cost of buying a bullish option because investors get money for selling higher- strike calls, which also caps return. In this trade, returns top out at $220, Palsson wrote.
Options are derivatives that give the right to buy or sell a security at a set price and date. Investors use options to guard against fluctuations in the price of securities they own, speculate on share-price moves or bet that volatility, or stock swings, will increase or decrease.
Laporan Fundamental & Rumor Saham Indonesia 03-09
Research CLSA Sec: Buy BSDE target Rp 1,000
Research Kim Eng : Sell ISAT target Rp 4,400
Research UBO Kay Hian Sec: Buy ANTM target Rp 2,500
Research Mandiri Sec: Neutral BBRI target Rp 7,700
Research Mandiri Sec: Sell KLBF target Rp 1,200
Research NISP Sec: Buy BBRI target Rp 8,900
Research Optima Karya Sec: Hold INDF target Rp 2,600
Cermati Saham Medco
HARGA saham PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC) berpotensi menuju level Rp 3.350 dalam jangka pendek. Sumber Investor Daily mengungkapkan, sejumlah hedge fund asing dikabarkan bakal mengakumulasi MEDC dalam waktu dekat. Saat ini, perseroan tengah mengkaji akuisisi tambang batubara berkalori tinggi di Kalimantan. Cadangan batubara di tambang tersebut diperkirakan mencapai 120 juta ton. Pada perdagangan kemarin, MEDC ditutup terkoreksi Rp 100 (3,48%) ke posisi 2.775.
Asing Minati Saham Leyand
INVESTOR asing dikabarkan akan memburu saham PT Leyand International Tbk (LAPD), terkait kesiapan perseroan menjadi pembeli siaga rights issue PT Nusantara Infrastructure Tbk (META). Menurut sumber Investor Daily, harga LAPD berpeluang menembus level Rp 500 dalam jangka pendek maupun menengah, karena perseroan bakal menguasai 40% saham Nusantara. Pada perdagangan kemarin, LAPD ditutup melemah Rp 10 (3,23%) ke level Rp 300.
Intraco Dapat Dana Rp 200 Miliar
PT INTRACO Penta Tbk (INTA) dikabarkan bakal mendapatkan dana Rp 200 miliar dari lembaga pembiayaan ekspor Swedia dan Korsel. Dana tersebut akan dipakai untuk membeli alat berat, seiring ekspansi perusahaan tambang batubara di Tanah Air. Sumber Investor Daily mengungkapkan, sejumlah broker asing dan lokal kini mulai mengoleksi kembali INTA, sehingga harganya berpotensi menembus level Rp 1.000 dalam jangka pendek. Perolehan tambahan kontrak dari Grup Sinarmas juga bakal berdampak positif terhadap pergerakan INTA. Pada perdagangan kemarin, INTA ditutup menguat Rp 80 (10,39%) ke posisi Rp 850.
Bank Indonesia (BI) memutuskan untuk mempertahankan suku bunga acuan BI Rate di level 6,5%. Penurunan BI Rate yang sudah dilakukan secara bertahap hingga 300 basis poin sebelumnya dinilai sudah cukup.Demikian disampaikan Direktur Direktorat Humas dan Perencanaan Strategis Dyah Makhijani terkait hasil Rapat Dewan Gubernur di Jakarta, Kamis (3/9/2009)."Memandang pelonggaran kebijakan moneter sejak Desember 2008 melalui penurunan BI Rate sebesar 300 bps, itu cukup kondusif bagi proses pemulihan ekonomi dan intermediasi perbankan. Tingkat BI Rate 6,50% juga dipandang konsisten dengan pencapaian sasaran inflasi pada 2010 sebesar 5% plus minus 1%," ujar Dyah.Dewan Gubernur BI meyakini bahwa momentum peningkatan perekonomian domestik semakin kuat. Berbagai indikator menunjukkan bahwa pengeluaran konsumsi masyarakat terus meningkat didorong oleh ketersediaan pembiayaan konsumsi dan tingkat keyakinan konsumen akan prospek perekonomian ke depan. Di sisi eksternal, ekspor juga terus meningkat sejalan dengan membaiknya perekonomian di kawasan, khususnya Cina dan India.
Berhasil Rebound, IHSG Menginjak 2.300 Kembali
Pada hari ini (3/9), hingga pukul 12.00 WIB, indeks berhasil menguat 29.90 poin (1.31%) dan bertengger di 2.315.915. Sentimen dari sejumlah isu emiten yang positif, kinerja indeks saham regional Shanghai & regional menguat, kendati indeks DJIA -29.93 berkat kekhawatiran mengenai sektor tenaga kerja AS (ADP Employer -296K dan Challenger Layoffs merosot melampaui perkiraan pasar). Indeks Nikkei 225 melemah 65.82 di 10,214.64, Hang Seng menguat 193.38 di 19,715.38, Kospi menguat 0.37 poin di 1613.53, Shanghai menguat 119.220 poin di 2,834.579 berkat pernyataan regulator China bahwa pasar saham China sehat dan akan memberikan support kepada saham unggulan di China.
Mata uang Rupiah pada pukul 13.00 WIB menguat 24.25 rupiah terhadap dolar, berkat kenaikan harga IHSG dan imbas penguatan yen dan mata uang regional terhadap dolar AS. USD-THB melemah 0.0050 di 34.0550, USD-SGD melemah 0.0019 di 1.4404, USD-KRW melemah 3.85 di 1,245.95, AUD-USD menguat 0.0033 di 0.8371, USD-JPY menguat 0.2143 di 92.43, USD-PHP melemah 0.1050 di 48.7950.
PT Astra International Tbk (ASII) tidak berniat untuk melakukan stock split terhadap sahamnya di pasar.
Hal tersebut disampaikan General Manager Public Relations ASII, Julian Rachman ketika ditemui dalam acara buka puasa bersama di Jakarta, Rabu malam (2/9). "Tahun ini belum ada rencana stock split karena harganya sudah pernah lebih tinggi sebelumnya, jadi tidak perlu," ujarnya.
Emisi Obligasi di Semester II Tetap Marak
Pada semester I lalu, Bursa Efek Indonesia mencatat 19 emiten telah merilis 22 emisi obligasi.
Salim Ivomas Pratama akan Menerbitkan Obligasi Rp 1,25 Triliun
Manajemen PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk (INDF), induk usaha Indo Agri, membenarkan mengenai rencana penerbitan obligasi tersebut.
INAF Incar Rp 400 M dari Jamkesmas
Target pendapatan INAF tahun ini sebesar Rp 1,5 triliun.
Adaro Tertolong Harga Jual Batubara
Meski volume penjualan batubara mungkin di bawah target, pendapatan dan laba bersih Adaro tetap bakal melompat tinggi.
Beli Mesin Baru, SMGR akan Mencairkan Utang
Saat ini, SMGR sedang memesan mesin produksi semen senilai US$ 198 juta dari FL Smidth, pembuat mesin semen yang berbasis di Denmark.
INTP Naikkan Kapasitas Produksi Semen
Kenaikan itu terjadi berkat penambahan kapasitas produksi pabrik INTP di Cirebon. OPTIMISTIS TUMBUH 50%, Indocement Incar Laba Rp 2,61 Triliun
Beli, Target Saham HEXA Rp4.000
Susan Silaban
PT Hexindo Tbk (HEXA) akan mencatat pertumbuhan pendapatan HEXA berpeluang naik 25,6% menjadi Rp4.000.
Tarif Tol Naik, Tahan Saham CMNP
Kenaikan tarif tol pada 4 september 2009 ikut memicu kenaikan saham PT Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada Tbk (CMNP).
CIMB Targetkan IPO Bank Jabar Q1 2010
PT CIMB Securities selaku penjamin emisi (underwriter) initial public offering PT Bank Jabar Banten menargetkan pelaksanaan IPO pada kuartal pertama 2010.
UNTR 'Due Dilligence' 2 Konsesi Tambang
PT United Tractors Tbk (UNTR) masih terus melakukan uji tuntas terhadap dua konsesi tambang batubara di daerah Kalimantan. Uji tuntas ini merupakan kelanjutan dari aksi perseroan untuk mewujudkan niatan menambah porsi sebagai penghasil batubara.
Credit Suisse Melepas BUMI, Indeks Terseret
Kejatuhan saham BUMI berandil besar terhadap kejatuhan IHSG menjadi 2.285,93, kemarin.
New Age Bersedia Jual Saham Herald ke BUMI
Pemegang saham Herald ini mengabaikan rekomendasi Direksi Independen Herald.
BSD Realisasikan Pendapatan Rp 700 M
PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk (BSDE) merealisasikan pendapatan per Agustus 2009 sebesar Rp 700 miliar atau setara dengan 50% dari target akhir tahun mencapai Rp 1,4 triliun.
BAT Resmi Miliki 99,74% Saham Bentoel
British American Tobacco Limited secara resmi telah memiliki 6.715.316.717 saham atau setara dengan 99,74% saham PT Bentoel Internasional Investama Tbk (RMBA).
PGAS Berhasil Operasikan Pipa Sepanjang 2.157 km
PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk (PGN) berhasil mengoperasikan pipa sepanjang 2.157 km dengan selesainya pipa transmisi SSWJ.
Economic: Dana IMF Masuk, Cadangan Jadi US$ 60,3 Miliar
Cadangan devisa Indonesia bertambah seiring masuknya dana dari IMF sebesar US$ 2,7 miliar. Kini cadangan devisa menjadi US$ 60,3 miliar, rekor tertinggi sepanjang 2009. IMF mengucurkan likuiditas ke seluruh negara anggotanya dalam bentuk special drawing right (SDR).
Banking: Kepemilikan Asing di SUN Turun Lagi
Peningkatan kepemilian asing di SUN pada Agustus lalu tidak berumur panjang. Per 1 September 2009, kepemilikan asing dalam SUN tercatat sebesar Rp 90,87 triliun, turun 0,32% dibandingkan 31 Agustus yang sebesar Rp 91,16 triliun.
UNSP: Penjualan 7M09 Terpangkas 33% yoy
Penjualan UNSP 7M09 terpangkas 33% yoy dari Rp1,85 triliu jadi Rp1,24 triliun karena turunya harga CPO dan karet perseroan. Penjualan CPO 7M09 turun 30% yoy dari Rp1,39 triliun jadi Rp983,8 miliar yang menyumbang 80,48% dari total penjualan perseroan. Sedangkan karet turun 43% yoy dari Rp453 miliar jadi Rp260,2 miliar (19,52%). Sementara, volume penjualan CPO 7M09 naik 2% yoy dari 146.000 jadi 149.900. Harga rata-rata CPO turun 30% yoy dari Rp8,5 juta/ton jadi Rp5,9 juta/ton.
ELSA: Transaksi Akuisisi 37,67% Saham Belum Rampung
Hingga saat ini, transaksi akuisisi 37,67% saham ELSA oleh Konsorsium Saratoga Capital-Northstar Pasific belum dirampungkan. Padahal tenggat waktunya selama 8-10 pekan sejak ditetapkan sebegai preferred bidder pada 11 Juni. Sementara Bahana menyatakan transaksinya telah rampung seiring disepakatinya harga penjualan dan akan diumumkan beberapa hari mendatang.
ELTY: Segera Cairkan Bridging Loan Rp500 M
Bulan ini, ELTY memprediksikan bisa mencairkan bridging loan (pinjaman talangan) dari Avenue Capital sebesar Rp500 miliar.
Setelah mencaplok 94,61% saham PT Itamaraya Gold Industri Tbk (ITMA), akhirnya Trust Energy Resources Pte Ltd mengumumkan rencananya untuk menggelar tender offer atas sisa sahamnya yang sebesar 5.39%.Demikian pengumuman yang disampaikan Trust Energy Resources Pte. Ltd dalam keterbukaan informasi ke Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI), Kamis (3/9/2009).
Sumber: Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, Inilah.com, Investor-daily, Kontan, Detik.com.
www.strategy.co.id
Research Kim Eng : Sell ISAT target Rp 4,400
Research UBO Kay Hian Sec: Buy ANTM target Rp 2,500
Research Mandiri Sec: Neutral BBRI target Rp 7,700
Research Mandiri Sec: Sell KLBF target Rp 1,200
Research NISP Sec: Buy BBRI target Rp 8,900
Research Optima Karya Sec: Hold INDF target Rp 2,600
Cermati Saham Medco
HARGA saham PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC) berpotensi menuju level Rp 3.350 dalam jangka pendek. Sumber Investor Daily mengungkapkan, sejumlah hedge fund asing dikabarkan bakal mengakumulasi MEDC dalam waktu dekat. Saat ini, perseroan tengah mengkaji akuisisi tambang batubara berkalori tinggi di Kalimantan. Cadangan batubara di tambang tersebut diperkirakan mencapai 120 juta ton. Pada perdagangan kemarin, MEDC ditutup terkoreksi Rp 100 (3,48%) ke posisi 2.775.
Asing Minati Saham Leyand
INVESTOR asing dikabarkan akan memburu saham PT Leyand International Tbk (LAPD), terkait kesiapan perseroan menjadi pembeli siaga rights issue PT Nusantara Infrastructure Tbk (META). Menurut sumber Investor Daily, harga LAPD berpeluang menembus level Rp 500 dalam jangka pendek maupun menengah, karena perseroan bakal menguasai 40% saham Nusantara. Pada perdagangan kemarin, LAPD ditutup melemah Rp 10 (3,23%) ke level Rp 300.
Intraco Dapat Dana Rp 200 Miliar
PT INTRACO Penta Tbk (INTA) dikabarkan bakal mendapatkan dana Rp 200 miliar dari lembaga pembiayaan ekspor Swedia dan Korsel. Dana tersebut akan dipakai untuk membeli alat berat, seiring ekspansi perusahaan tambang batubara di Tanah Air. Sumber Investor Daily mengungkapkan, sejumlah broker asing dan lokal kini mulai mengoleksi kembali INTA, sehingga harganya berpotensi menembus level Rp 1.000 dalam jangka pendek. Perolehan tambahan kontrak dari Grup Sinarmas juga bakal berdampak positif terhadap pergerakan INTA. Pada perdagangan kemarin, INTA ditutup menguat Rp 80 (10,39%) ke posisi Rp 850.
Bank Indonesia (BI) memutuskan untuk mempertahankan suku bunga acuan BI Rate di level 6,5%. Penurunan BI Rate yang sudah dilakukan secara bertahap hingga 300 basis poin sebelumnya dinilai sudah cukup.Demikian disampaikan Direktur Direktorat Humas dan Perencanaan Strategis Dyah Makhijani terkait hasil Rapat Dewan Gubernur di Jakarta, Kamis (3/9/2009)."Memandang pelonggaran kebijakan moneter sejak Desember 2008 melalui penurunan BI Rate sebesar 300 bps, itu cukup kondusif bagi proses pemulihan ekonomi dan intermediasi perbankan. Tingkat BI Rate 6,50% juga dipandang konsisten dengan pencapaian sasaran inflasi pada 2010 sebesar 5% plus minus 1%," ujar Dyah.Dewan Gubernur BI meyakini bahwa momentum peningkatan perekonomian domestik semakin kuat. Berbagai indikator menunjukkan bahwa pengeluaran konsumsi masyarakat terus meningkat didorong oleh ketersediaan pembiayaan konsumsi dan tingkat keyakinan konsumen akan prospek perekonomian ke depan. Di sisi eksternal, ekspor juga terus meningkat sejalan dengan membaiknya perekonomian di kawasan, khususnya Cina dan India.
Berhasil Rebound, IHSG Menginjak 2.300 Kembali
Pada hari ini (3/9), hingga pukul 12.00 WIB, indeks berhasil menguat 29.90 poin (1.31%) dan bertengger di 2.315.915. Sentimen dari sejumlah isu emiten yang positif, kinerja indeks saham regional Shanghai & regional menguat, kendati indeks DJIA -29.93 berkat kekhawatiran mengenai sektor tenaga kerja AS (ADP Employer -296K dan Challenger Layoffs merosot melampaui perkiraan pasar). Indeks Nikkei 225 melemah 65.82 di 10,214.64, Hang Seng menguat 193.38 di 19,715.38, Kospi menguat 0.37 poin di 1613.53, Shanghai menguat 119.220 poin di 2,834.579 berkat pernyataan regulator China bahwa pasar saham China sehat dan akan memberikan support kepada saham unggulan di China.
Mata uang Rupiah pada pukul 13.00 WIB menguat 24.25 rupiah terhadap dolar, berkat kenaikan harga IHSG dan imbas penguatan yen dan mata uang regional terhadap dolar AS. USD-THB melemah 0.0050 di 34.0550, USD-SGD melemah 0.0019 di 1.4404, USD-KRW melemah 3.85 di 1,245.95, AUD-USD menguat 0.0033 di 0.8371, USD-JPY menguat 0.2143 di 92.43, USD-PHP melemah 0.1050 di 48.7950.
PT Astra International Tbk (ASII) tidak berniat untuk melakukan stock split terhadap sahamnya di pasar.
Hal tersebut disampaikan General Manager Public Relations ASII, Julian Rachman ketika ditemui dalam acara buka puasa bersama di Jakarta, Rabu malam (2/9). "Tahun ini belum ada rencana stock split karena harganya sudah pernah lebih tinggi sebelumnya, jadi tidak perlu," ujarnya.
Emisi Obligasi di Semester II Tetap Marak
Pada semester I lalu, Bursa Efek Indonesia mencatat 19 emiten telah merilis 22 emisi obligasi.
Salim Ivomas Pratama akan Menerbitkan Obligasi Rp 1,25 Triliun
Manajemen PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk (INDF), induk usaha Indo Agri, membenarkan mengenai rencana penerbitan obligasi tersebut.
INAF Incar Rp 400 M dari Jamkesmas
Target pendapatan INAF tahun ini sebesar Rp 1,5 triliun.
Adaro Tertolong Harga Jual Batubara
Meski volume penjualan batubara mungkin di bawah target, pendapatan dan laba bersih Adaro tetap bakal melompat tinggi.
Beli Mesin Baru, SMGR akan Mencairkan Utang
Saat ini, SMGR sedang memesan mesin produksi semen senilai US$ 198 juta dari FL Smidth, pembuat mesin semen yang berbasis di Denmark.
INTP Naikkan Kapasitas Produksi Semen
Kenaikan itu terjadi berkat penambahan kapasitas produksi pabrik INTP di Cirebon. OPTIMISTIS TUMBUH 50%, Indocement Incar Laba Rp 2,61 Triliun
Beli, Target Saham HEXA Rp4.000
Susan Silaban
PT Hexindo Tbk (HEXA) akan mencatat pertumbuhan pendapatan HEXA berpeluang naik 25,6% menjadi Rp4.000.
Tarif Tol Naik, Tahan Saham CMNP
Kenaikan tarif tol pada 4 september 2009 ikut memicu kenaikan saham PT Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada Tbk (CMNP).
CIMB Targetkan IPO Bank Jabar Q1 2010
PT CIMB Securities selaku penjamin emisi (underwriter) initial public offering PT Bank Jabar Banten menargetkan pelaksanaan IPO pada kuartal pertama 2010.
UNTR 'Due Dilligence' 2 Konsesi Tambang
PT United Tractors Tbk (UNTR) masih terus melakukan uji tuntas terhadap dua konsesi tambang batubara di daerah Kalimantan. Uji tuntas ini merupakan kelanjutan dari aksi perseroan untuk mewujudkan niatan menambah porsi sebagai penghasil batubara.
Credit Suisse Melepas BUMI, Indeks Terseret
Kejatuhan saham BUMI berandil besar terhadap kejatuhan IHSG menjadi 2.285,93, kemarin.
New Age Bersedia Jual Saham Herald ke BUMI
Pemegang saham Herald ini mengabaikan rekomendasi Direksi Independen Herald.
BSD Realisasikan Pendapatan Rp 700 M
PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk (BSDE) merealisasikan pendapatan per Agustus 2009 sebesar Rp 700 miliar atau setara dengan 50% dari target akhir tahun mencapai Rp 1,4 triliun.
BAT Resmi Miliki 99,74% Saham Bentoel
British American Tobacco Limited secara resmi telah memiliki 6.715.316.717 saham atau setara dengan 99,74% saham PT Bentoel Internasional Investama Tbk (RMBA).
PGAS Berhasil Operasikan Pipa Sepanjang 2.157 km
PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk (PGN) berhasil mengoperasikan pipa sepanjang 2.157 km dengan selesainya pipa transmisi SSWJ.
Economic: Dana IMF Masuk, Cadangan Jadi US$ 60,3 Miliar
Cadangan devisa Indonesia bertambah seiring masuknya dana dari IMF sebesar US$ 2,7 miliar. Kini cadangan devisa menjadi US$ 60,3 miliar, rekor tertinggi sepanjang 2009. IMF mengucurkan likuiditas ke seluruh negara anggotanya dalam bentuk special drawing right (SDR).
Banking: Kepemilikan Asing di SUN Turun Lagi
Peningkatan kepemilian asing di SUN pada Agustus lalu tidak berumur panjang. Per 1 September 2009, kepemilikan asing dalam SUN tercatat sebesar Rp 90,87 triliun, turun 0,32% dibandingkan 31 Agustus yang sebesar Rp 91,16 triliun.
UNSP: Penjualan 7M09 Terpangkas 33% yoy
Penjualan UNSP 7M09 terpangkas 33% yoy dari Rp1,85 triliu jadi Rp1,24 triliun karena turunya harga CPO dan karet perseroan. Penjualan CPO 7M09 turun 30% yoy dari Rp1,39 triliun jadi Rp983,8 miliar yang menyumbang 80,48% dari total penjualan perseroan. Sedangkan karet turun 43% yoy dari Rp453 miliar jadi Rp260,2 miliar (19,52%). Sementara, volume penjualan CPO 7M09 naik 2% yoy dari 146.000 jadi 149.900. Harga rata-rata CPO turun 30% yoy dari Rp8,5 juta/ton jadi Rp5,9 juta/ton.
ELSA: Transaksi Akuisisi 37,67% Saham Belum Rampung
Hingga saat ini, transaksi akuisisi 37,67% saham ELSA oleh Konsorsium Saratoga Capital-Northstar Pasific belum dirampungkan. Padahal tenggat waktunya selama 8-10 pekan sejak ditetapkan sebegai preferred bidder pada 11 Juni. Sementara Bahana menyatakan transaksinya telah rampung seiring disepakatinya harga penjualan dan akan diumumkan beberapa hari mendatang.
ELTY: Segera Cairkan Bridging Loan Rp500 M
Bulan ini, ELTY memprediksikan bisa mencairkan bridging loan (pinjaman talangan) dari Avenue Capital sebesar Rp500 miliar.
Setelah mencaplok 94,61% saham PT Itamaraya Gold Industri Tbk (ITMA), akhirnya Trust Energy Resources Pte Ltd mengumumkan rencananya untuk menggelar tender offer atas sisa sahamnya yang sebesar 5.39%.Demikian pengumuman yang disampaikan Trust Energy Resources Pte. Ltd dalam keterbukaan informasi ke Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI), Kamis (3/9/2009).
Sumber: Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, Inilah.com, Investor-daily, Kontan, Detik.com.
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