1057 GMT [Dow Jones] GBP/USD just dipped below 1.50 for the first time in 9 months but Barclays Capital still sees more pain ahead. The bank says in the absence of a recovery above 1.5425 the downtrend should extend to 1.4855 and 1.4685 in March. GBP/USD now at 1.5005.
1100 GMT [Dow Jones] More GBP/USD stops triggered on the break of 1.50 take the rate to a fresh 9 month low of 1.4982. Next major support comes in at 1.4850, so expect more stops if that level folds.
1031 GMT [Dow Jones] Sterling is taking a hammering across the board Monday. GBP/USD falls one cent on the day to a fresh 9-month low of 1.5076. EUR/GBP hits a 2-month high of 0.9029, GBP/AUD is at a fresh 25-year low of 1.6780, GBP/JPY an 11-month low of 134.60. Pressure on sterling is coming from the latest election polls which put Labour and the Conservatives almost neck and neck with the latter's lead now said to be at just 2 points, negative M&A flows involving UK's Pru and AIG and the ever present threat of yet more BOE QE.
0921 GMT [Dow Jones] Indonesia shares end +0.2% at 2554.674 in moderate volume, helped by gains in most consumer-related stocks after government announces benign inflation data for February, which could support central bank to keep key rate unchanged at 6.5%. "Gains across Asian markets also helped trigger bargain buying despite a selloff in mining blue chips," says trader at Valbury Securities; tips shares to consolidate tomorrow. Car maker Astra (ASII.JK) ends up 1.7% at IDR36,950 after reporting strong 2009 earnings, Bank Danamon (BDMN.JK) up 3.5% at IDR5,150 on bargain buying. Meanwhile, coal miner Bumi (BUMI.JK) down 3.3% at IDR2,175 and heavyweight Telkom (TLKM.JK) down 1.8% at IDR8,150.
0900 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/IDR lower at 9,270 vs 9,355 late Thursday (market closed Friday) as release of benign February inflation attracts fund inflows into local bonds, dealers say. "The dollar could head toward IDR9,250 tomorrow if there's no surprises from the offshore front," dealer says; tips 9,300 resistance; On-year inflation up tad in February to 3.81% from 3.72% in January, but still below Bank Indonesia's year-end target of between 4%-6%, indicating rate hikes aren't imminent.(
0820 GMT [Dow Jones] UBS says it remains "comfortable" with its 3-month EUR/USD forecast at 1.30 despite talk of a Greek bailout. The bank points to the latest CFTC data showing that EUR/USD shorts rose for the sixth consecutive week and that changes have preceded currency moves over the last six months. "The data suggest that the stabilization in the euro witnessed last week is likely to be temporary, and that further falls could well be in store," it says.
0818 GMT [Dow Jones] According to the latest data available CME futures traders went even shorter of the euro last week with net shorts rising to a record for the third week running to stand at $12B, notes RBS. However, the bank says in a week that contained the threat of an S&P downgrade, strikes in Greece, unsupportive comments from politicians and a broadening debate over the foundations of the currency union the euro could not build momentum on the downside. RBS says take all this into account and the fact that on the charts EUR/USD made a double-bottom at 1.3440 it sees risk for a stop-loss run higher that could take the rate back to 1.40. EUR/USD now at 1.3627.
0441 GMT [Dow Jones] Indonesia's on-year inflation rises in February but below market forecasts, indicating rate hikes aren't imminent. CPI +3.81% on year, +0.30% on month vs forecast +3.97%, +0.46%; January's +3.72%, +0.84%. Rice prices continue to support CPI as harvest volumes low; but milder on-month CPI rise indicates contribution from rice prices is waning. Also of interest is core inflation, which strips out government-controlled fuel prices, volatile food costs; on-year core inflation slows sharply to 3.88% vs January's 4.43%, indicating base effect from fuel price cuts in January last year played a part in headline figure. Market will expect Bank Indonesia to keep key rate at 6.50% Thursday.
Greece Now, U.K. Next as Scots Investors Ready for Pound Plunge
(Bloomberg) -- While the eyes of the world focus on Greece’s debt crisis, investors in Edinburgh are busy preparing for the U.K. to be next.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVDvzOH9wSks&pos=7
0538 GMT [Dow Jones] Indonesia's rising imports could potentially weaken IDR, market participants say; Indonesia's January trade surplus down to $2.03 billion in January from $3.00 billion in December, due to strong recovery in imports, while key exports, such as commodities, slid amid global economic downturn, Central Statistics Agency says. February surplus slightly below $2.21 billion median forecast from a Dow Jones Newswires poll of 10 regional economists. Imports will continue to improve in coming months as investment here likely to recover, hence to put pressures on trade balance and IDR, says Standard Chartered economist Eric Sugandi. Bank Danamon tips year-end USD/IDR target at 9,500 vs pair last at 9,275. Still, FX dealers say capital inflows expected to offer IDR some support this year.
0452 GMT [Dow Jones] HSI +1.9% at 21,000.12 midday; gains likely supported by short-covering activities after short sales high at 7.9%-8.0% of market total Thursday-Friday, says Jamie Coutts at BGC Securities. "Short covering is triggering a bigger-than-expected rally in Hong Kong. We're seeing a lot of actions in the options market with clients taking out protection and buying volatility." Tips 21,000 -- critical support level broken in January -- acting as key level again. Adds, China banks strong, also likely due to short-covering, but Coutts doesn't think it's time to buy sector; says rallies should be treated with some caution until downtrend technically broken. ICBC (1398.HK) +2.9% at HK$5.65, China Construction Bank (0939.HK) +3.2% at HK$6.06, Bank of China (3988.HK) +3.4% at HK$3.90. Volume brisk at HK$36.87 billion.
0425 GMT [Dow Jones] As AUD pares gains late on murky Greece bailout details, RBA expectations, rate decision will drive next 24 hours. Going into tomorrow's decision, Richard Grace, chief currency strategist for Commonwealth Bank of Australia, says RBA more likely to hurt AUD than help it. "There is a very significant risk RBA doesn't raise rates and that will hurt the Aussie if they do remain on hold. Even if they hike, I don't expect the Aussie dollar to go to cyclical highs," says Grace. AUD/USD recently at 0.8976, off from session high just above 0.9000.
0416 GMT [Dow Jones] Nikkei up 0.7% at 10,194.42, with sentiment helped by gains in Asian shares as well as stability in USD/JPY (now at 89.13 vs 89.10 morning stock market close), says Japanese brokerage manager. Notes China PMI data (widely monitored in Japan), fell to 55.8 in February from 57.4 in Jan,, is being priced in. "The Tokyo market is on the positive side about this," he says, adding figure still represents 11th consecutive month above 50 reading, showing manufacturing activity has continued to expand, albeit at slower pace. Other Asian markets mostly up as well. (Sub-50 reading indicates contraction in manufacturing activity.) Prominent 'China-related' stocks higher; construction equipment maker Komatsu (6301.TO) up 0.6% at Y1,795 vs Y1,782 at morning close. Nippon Steel (5401.TO) up 0.6% at Y334 vs Y333 at morning close. 31/33 Topix subindexes higher, with banks leading (+1.7%).
0413 GMT [Dow Jones] China could resume CNY appreciation sooner rather later to manage hot money inflows and as exports rebound, says Credit Agricole. "In our view, appreciation pressure and hot money inflows would be even stronger should China not move at all on the CNY," firm says, adds experience of 2005 revaluation suggests CNY appreciation pressure may stabilize if PBOC makes clear any further appreciation will be gradual. "A realistic scenario is that China could implement a move similar to that made in 2005, i.e., an initial one-off revaluation, followed by a gradual appreciation vs USD." Revaluation can take place end-March or during 2Q, firm says; eying USD/CNY at 6.50 end-2010 vs 6.8262 earlier today. EUR/USD may present uncertainty to CNY rise timing, firm says. "Chinese policymakers may want to see EUR stabilizing vs USD before resuming the CNY appreciation."
Germany, France Mull 30 Billion-Euro Aid for Greece, WSJ Says
1100 GMT [Dow Jones] More GBP/USD stops triggered on the break of 1.50 take the rate to a fresh 9 month low of 1.4982. Next major support comes in at 1.4850, so expect more stops if that level folds.
1031 GMT [Dow Jones] Sterling is taking a hammering across the board Monday. GBP/USD falls one cent on the day to a fresh 9-month low of 1.5076. EUR/GBP hits a 2-month high of 0.9029, GBP/AUD is at a fresh 25-year low of 1.6780, GBP/JPY an 11-month low of 134.60. Pressure on sterling is coming from the latest election polls which put Labour and the Conservatives almost neck and neck with the latter's lead now said to be at just 2 points, negative M&A flows involving UK's Pru and AIG and the ever present threat of yet more BOE QE.
0921 GMT [Dow Jones] Indonesia shares end +0.2% at 2554.674 in moderate volume, helped by gains in most consumer-related stocks after government announces benign inflation data for February, which could support central bank to keep key rate unchanged at 6.5%. "Gains across Asian markets also helped trigger bargain buying despite a selloff in mining blue chips," says trader at Valbury Securities; tips shares to consolidate tomorrow. Car maker Astra (ASII.JK) ends up 1.7% at IDR36,950 after reporting strong 2009 earnings, Bank Danamon (BDMN.JK) up 3.5% at IDR5,150 on bargain buying. Meanwhile, coal miner Bumi (BUMI.JK) down 3.3% at IDR2,175 and heavyweight Telkom (TLKM.JK) down 1.8% at IDR8,150.
0900 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/IDR lower at 9,270 vs 9,355 late Thursday (market closed Friday) as release of benign February inflation attracts fund inflows into local bonds, dealers say. "The dollar could head toward IDR9,250 tomorrow if there's no surprises from the offshore front," dealer says; tips 9,300 resistance; On-year inflation up tad in February to 3.81% from 3.72% in January, but still below Bank Indonesia's year-end target of between 4%-6%, indicating rate hikes aren't imminent.(
0820 GMT [Dow Jones] UBS says it remains "comfortable" with its 3-month EUR/USD forecast at 1.30 despite talk of a Greek bailout. The bank points to the latest CFTC data showing that EUR/USD shorts rose for the sixth consecutive week and that changes have preceded currency moves over the last six months. "The data suggest that the stabilization in the euro witnessed last week is likely to be temporary, and that further falls could well be in store," it says.
0818 GMT [Dow Jones] According to the latest data available CME futures traders went even shorter of the euro last week with net shorts rising to a record for the third week running to stand at $12B, notes RBS. However, the bank says in a week that contained the threat of an S&P downgrade, strikes in Greece, unsupportive comments from politicians and a broadening debate over the foundations of the currency union the euro could not build momentum on the downside. RBS says take all this into account and the fact that on the charts EUR/USD made a double-bottom at 1.3440 it sees risk for a stop-loss run higher that could take the rate back to 1.40. EUR/USD now at 1.3627.
0441 GMT [Dow Jones] Indonesia's on-year inflation rises in February but below market forecasts, indicating rate hikes aren't imminent. CPI +3.81% on year, +0.30% on month vs forecast +3.97%, +0.46%; January's +3.72%, +0.84%. Rice prices continue to support CPI as harvest volumes low; but milder on-month CPI rise indicates contribution from rice prices is waning. Also of interest is core inflation, which strips out government-controlled fuel prices, volatile food costs; on-year core inflation slows sharply to 3.88% vs January's 4.43%, indicating base effect from fuel price cuts in January last year played a part in headline figure. Market will expect Bank Indonesia to keep key rate at 6.50% Thursday.
Greece Now, U.K. Next as Scots Investors Ready for Pound Plunge
(Bloomberg) -- While the eyes of the world focus on Greece’s debt crisis, investors in Edinburgh are busy preparing for the U.K. to be next.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVDvzOH9wSks&pos=7
0538 GMT [Dow Jones] Indonesia's rising imports could potentially weaken IDR, market participants say; Indonesia's January trade surplus down to $2.03 billion in January from $3.00 billion in December, due to strong recovery in imports, while key exports, such as commodities, slid amid global economic downturn, Central Statistics Agency says. February surplus slightly below $2.21 billion median forecast from a Dow Jones Newswires poll of 10 regional economists. Imports will continue to improve in coming months as investment here likely to recover, hence to put pressures on trade balance and IDR, says Standard Chartered economist Eric Sugandi. Bank Danamon tips year-end USD/IDR target at 9,500 vs pair last at 9,275. Still, FX dealers say capital inflows expected to offer IDR some support this year.
0452 GMT [Dow Jones] HSI +1.9% at 21,000.12 midday; gains likely supported by short-covering activities after short sales high at 7.9%-8.0% of market total Thursday-Friday, says Jamie Coutts at BGC Securities. "Short covering is triggering a bigger-than-expected rally in Hong Kong. We're seeing a lot of actions in the options market with clients taking out protection and buying volatility." Tips 21,000 -- critical support level broken in January -- acting as key level again. Adds, China banks strong, also likely due to short-covering, but Coutts doesn't think it's time to buy sector; says rallies should be treated with some caution until downtrend technically broken. ICBC (1398.HK) +2.9% at HK$5.65, China Construction Bank (0939.HK) +3.2% at HK$6.06, Bank of China (3988.HK) +3.4% at HK$3.90. Volume brisk at HK$36.87 billion.
0425 GMT [Dow Jones] As AUD pares gains late on murky Greece bailout details, RBA expectations, rate decision will drive next 24 hours. Going into tomorrow's decision, Richard Grace, chief currency strategist for Commonwealth Bank of Australia, says RBA more likely to hurt AUD than help it. "There is a very significant risk RBA doesn't raise rates and that will hurt the Aussie if they do remain on hold. Even if they hike, I don't expect the Aussie dollar to go to cyclical highs," says Grace. AUD/USD recently at 0.8976, off from session high just above 0.9000.
0416 GMT [Dow Jones] Nikkei up 0.7% at 10,194.42, with sentiment helped by gains in Asian shares as well as stability in USD/JPY (now at 89.13 vs 89.10 morning stock market close), says Japanese brokerage manager. Notes China PMI data (widely monitored in Japan), fell to 55.8 in February from 57.4 in Jan,, is being priced in. "The Tokyo market is on the positive side about this," he says, adding figure still represents 11th consecutive month above 50 reading, showing manufacturing activity has continued to expand, albeit at slower pace. Other Asian markets mostly up as well. (Sub-50 reading indicates contraction in manufacturing activity.) Prominent 'China-related' stocks higher; construction equipment maker Komatsu (6301.TO) up 0.6% at Y1,795 vs Y1,782 at morning close. Nippon Steel (5401.TO) up 0.6% at Y334 vs Y333 at morning close. 31/33 Topix subindexes higher, with banks leading (+1.7%).
0413 GMT [Dow Jones] China could resume CNY appreciation sooner rather later to manage hot money inflows and as exports rebound, says Credit Agricole. "In our view, appreciation pressure and hot money inflows would be even stronger should China not move at all on the CNY," firm says, adds experience of 2005 revaluation suggests CNY appreciation pressure may stabilize if PBOC makes clear any further appreciation will be gradual. "A realistic scenario is that China could implement a move similar to that made in 2005, i.e., an initial one-off revaluation, followed by a gradual appreciation vs USD." Revaluation can take place end-March or during 2Q, firm says; eying USD/CNY at 6.50 end-2010 vs 6.8262 earlier today. EUR/USD may present uncertainty to CNY rise timing, firm says. "Chinese policymakers may want to see EUR stabilizing vs USD before resuming the CNY appreciation."
Germany, France Mull 30 Billion-Euro Aid for Greece, WSJ Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNZsupn6TDik&pos=6
Week Ahead: Economic Reports, Greek Bond Offering Loom
By: Patti Domm CNBC Executive Editor
U.S. jobs data and developments in the Greek financial crisis could be important catalysts for stocks in the week ahead.
http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=6833542981102286398
Buffett Says Housing Woes to Ease Next Year, Barring Explosions
(Bloomberg) -- Billionaire Warren Buffett said the U.S. residential real estate slump will end by about 2011, predicting that’s how long it will take demand for homes to catch up with the supply.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=arF9ymnFl4xg
Payrolls Probably Declined in February: U.S. Economy Preview
(Bloomberg) -- Companies in the U.S. probably cut more jobs in February and the unemployment rate increased, indicating the labor market in the world’s largest economy is still struggling to rebound, economists said before a government report this week.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aDXvIiQuLD8E
Wolter Says China, India, Indonesia Stocks `Overpriced': Video
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aW.Bsy33Fi5Q
Indonesia Bank Row May Hinder Cut in $11 Billion Fuel Subsidies
(Bloomberg) -- Indonesia may delay raising energy prices as a dispute over a 2008 bank bailout divides President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s coalition, PT Bank Danamon said, undermining efforts to rein in almost $11 billion in subsidies.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a5wk_YzsBXU0
Double-Dip Recession Fears Creep Back Into the Market
By: Jeff Cox CNBC.com
A miserable week of economic news has rekindled a big question in the market: Is the economy headed for a double-dip recession?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35584141
Foreign Stocks Still Offering A Good Buying Opportunity
By: Jennifer Woods, Special to CNBC.com
International stocks had a bang-up year in 2009, and while 2010 will hardly match that, strategists say plenty of opportunity remains for investors looking abroad.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35601205
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index May Extend Drop: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index may decline toward the 19,000-point level should it break below its 200-day moving average, BGC Partners said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aemf36pf4xIg
Oil May Reach $81 Next Week, Passes ‘Cloud’: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil prices may rise to $81 a barrel within the next week, according to indicators on a Japanese charting method called Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, or “one- glance cloud chart,” said Mitsubishi Corp.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aQnUTBTMQQEc
Euro’s Drop Versus Asia Currencies May End: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The euro’s slump against Asian currencies may soon reverse as a technical indicator suggests the 16-nation currency is due for a rally, according to ING Groep NV.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aDYpRa9a0YG0
Kiwi May Reach 3-Month Low on ‘Dead Cross’: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- New Zealand’s currency may fall to a three-month low against the yen after it created a “dead- cross” formation, Ueda Harlow Ltd. said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=alJxRx2xCXWs
U.S. 30-, 10-Year Securities Near ‘Hurdle’: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. longer-term securities may post “potentially significant” gains if they close below key yield levels they’re approaching, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, which cited technical indicators.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a5sEDErO37JE
Gold Weekly Technical Outlook
ONG Focus - Technical Written by Oil N' Gold
Despite dipping to as low as 1088.5, gold's strong rebound from there suggests that retreat from 1131.5 is completed and turned bias neutral. Focus now turns back to 1131.5 resistance. Break there will indicate that rise from 1044.5 is resuming and will also strongly suggest that whole correction from 1227.5 is finished with three waves down to 1044.5 already. In such case, stronger rally should be seen to 1163 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, however, below 1088.5 support will shift favors back to the case that another low below 1044.5 would be seen before correction from 1227.5 concludes.In the bigger picture, price actions from 1227.5 are treated as correction to rise fro 931.3 only. The question now is on whether such correction is finished after meeting 61.8% retracement of 931.3 to 1227.5 at 1044.4. Strong break of 1163 resistance will indicate that the long term up trend is likely resuming for another high above 1227.5. On the downside, even in case of another fall, we'd expect strong support at 1000 psychological level to conclude the correction and bring up trend resumption. In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1460 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 structural support holds.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil turned into consolidation after edging high to 80.51 initially last week and turned and dipped to as low as 77.05. Nevertheless, with 75.69 resistance turned support intact, rise from 69.05 should still be in progress. Indeed, Friday's strong rebound indicates that consolidation from 80.51 might have completed already. Initial bias is cautiously on the upside this week. Break of 80.51 will confirm rise resumption and should target a retest on 83.95 high next. On the downside, in case of another fall, outlook will remain bullish as long as 75.69 support holds. However, break of 75.69 will argue that rebound from 69.50 has completed and will turn focus back to this low.In the bigger picture, crude oil was supported above mentioned 68.59 key support and thus, there was no confirmation of medium term reversal. The strong rebound from 72.43 dampened our bearish view and argue that medium term rise from 33.2 might not be over yet. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that, strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.
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