Friday, March 13, 2009

Japan & HK stocks jump, lead Asia on US bank hopes

March 13 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei average leapt 5 percent and led Asian stocks higher on Friday, propelled by growing investor confidence that large U.S. banks will survive without government takeovers and may even profit. Citigroup Inc told Reuters the bank does not need any more emergency cash from Washington and expects to stay private, while Bank of America said it was profitable in January and February, easing fears about further instability in the banking industry and sparking a rush back into equities. For example, Wall Street chalked up its best three-day run since November after Standard & Poor's raised its outlook on General Electric Co's credit ratings to stable from negative, though it stripped the company of its "AAA" status. On the other hand, Berkshire Hathaway, billionaire investor Warren Buffet's conglomerate, lost its AAA rating and has a negative outlook from Fitch Ratings. Tokyo's Nikkei climbed 5.1 percent, and posted its biggest weekly gain of the year. Shares of Japan's top bank Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group climbed 5.8 percent.
Open 7,520.00, High 7,600.00, Low 7,510.00, Close 7,570.00
R4 7830.00, R3 7740.00, R2 7650.00, R1 7610.00
PP 7560.00
S1 7520.00, S2 7470.00, S3 7380.00, S4 7290.00

















The MSCI index of Asia Pacific stocks outside Japan rose 3.2 percent, maintaining this week's up trend and hitting its highest level in about two weeks. The materials and financial sectors were the biggest boosts. Bank stocks were also the prime movers behind the 3.6 percent rise in Hong Kong's Hang Seng index HSBC rose 3.5 percent, as investors bought back the beaten down shares after an $18 billion rights issue. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said he had worries about the security of Chinese assets in the United States, comments that helped to push down U.S. March HSI futures +3.5% at 12,380, lagging cash market's 3.9% rally. Contract trading around 80-point discount to cash, suggesting players anticipating retreat with HSI putting up cumulative gains of nearly 10% Tuesday through today. Volume light at 47,105 lots, typical of Friday. March fair discount about 35-point discount to cash.
Open 12,340.00, High 12,603.00, Low 12,192.00, Close 12,598.00
R4 13697.33, R3 13286.33, R2 12875.34, R1 12736.67
PP 12464.33
S1 12325.67, S2 12053.33, S3 11642.33, S4 11231.33

Daily Commodities Market Recap and Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- Palm oil futures may tumble as much as 23 percent this year because of lower energy prices and increasing vegetable oil supplies, according to analyst forecasts at an industry conference in Kuala Lumpur.The commodity may drop to 1,500 ringgit ($407) a metric ton in the second half, said Dorab Mistry, a director of Godrej International Ltd., one of India’s largest buyers. The cooking oil may trade between 1,400 ringgit and 1,500 ringgit in the next six months, said James Fry, managing director of research company LMC International Ltd.

Crude oil traded near $47 a barrel, set for a fourth week of gains, as OPEC prepares to meet this weekend to consider a cut in output. Crude oil for April delivery was at $46.73 a barrel, down 30 cents, at 8:23 a.m. London time on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The global oil market is oversupplied and OPEC will lower production if needed, Shokri Ghanem, who chairs Libya’s state- run National Oil Corp., said yesterday. Other ministers have called for the group to halt reductions. U.S. crude stockpiles rose last week amid a 3.5 percent drop in demand, the Energy Department reported on March 11.

Gold fell in Asia, poised for a third weekly decline and the longest losing streak since October, as a rebound in equities reduced investor demand for a haven and deflation concerns persisted.Gold for immediate delivery fell as much as 0.5 percent to $922.28 an ounce, and traded at $924.10 at 3:24 p.m. in Singapore, paring a 3.2 percent gain made in the last two days. Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest such fund backed by bullion, advanced 0.3 percent to a record 1,041.53 metric tons yesterday, according to figures on the company’s Web site. The fund’s holdings are now larger than the 1,040.1 tons held by Switzerland in January, according to Swiss National Bank data.

TRADING THE PRECIOUS METALS & FOOD

August gold closed lower on Monday and above he 20-day moving average crossing at 672.80 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 682.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 666.80 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.

July silver closed slightly lower on Monday as it consolidates some of last week's rally but remains above trendline resistance crossing near 13.673. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends last week's rally, April's high crossing at 14.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 13.252 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.

July copper closed higher on Monday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 343.87 confirming that a low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the reaction high crossing at 369.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 334.00 would temper the near- term friendly outlook.

July cocoa closed lower on Monday as it extended last week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this Monday's decline, May's low crossing at 17.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 19.11 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.

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Warren Buffett Loses "World's Richest Billionaire" Title

On Wednesday, Forbes released it’s hotly anticipate list of the world’s richest people and someone stole the top spot from Warren Buffett.CNBC’s Alex Crippen writes, “The 2009 rankings, just released by Forbes magazine, put Microsoft founder (and Buffett bridge partner) Bill Gates in the top position with an estimated wealth of $40 billion. Buffett is number two, with $37 billion, a decline of $25 billion from last year's $62 billion, or just over 40 percent. Mexico's Carlos Slim stays in the top three with $35 billion.The net worth of the world's billionaires fell from $4.4 trillion to $2.4 trillion, while the number of billionaires was down to 793 from 1,125.

Here’s a list of the billionaires who claimed the 10 top spots as ranked by Forbes.
1. William Gates III
2. Warren Buffett
3. Carlos Slim Helu
4. Lawrence Ellison
5. Ingvar Kamprad
6. Karl Albrecht
7. Mukesh Ambani
8. Lakshmi Mittal
9. Theo Albrecht
10. Amancio Ortega

Penguatan Saham & Obligasi Angkat Rupiah & Regional

Rupiah Indonesia menguat terhadap dolar, mengikuti penguatan mata uang regional Asia setelah pasar saham global menguat yang meningkatkan permintaan untuk aset di negara emerging. Laporan Bank of America, JP MOrgan dan Citigroup yang menyatakan bahwa mereka mendapatkan keuntungan di bulan Januari-Februari memberikan sentimen positif kepada aset global. Indeks Bloomberg-JP Morgan Asia Dollar berpotensi mengalami penguatan mingguan terbaik di tahun ini setelah laporan penjualan ritel di AS mencatat penurunan lebih sedikit ketimbang perkiraan ekonom.Rupiah menguat 0.2 persen ke 11,993 untuk penguatan mingguan sebesar 0.8 persen. Indeks Asia Dollar menguat 0.7 persen di pekan ini. Rupiah kemarin mencatat penguatan terbesar diantara 10 mata uang yang aktif diperdagangkan diluar Jepang. IHSG ditutup menguat 17.0231 (1.30%)171,327.43 di 1,327.437.

Rupiah telah melemah 9 persen di tahun ini, menguat karena fund global membeli lebih banyak saham di Indonesia ketimbang yang mereka jual dalam 4 sesi terakhir. Investor asing menambah kepemilikan obligasi pemerintah yang bermata uang rupiah pada lelang 10 Maret sebesar 1.83 triliun rupiah ($ 153 juta), menunjukkan adanya aliran dana masuk ke pasar obligasi. Won Korea diperdagangkan di 1,487.75 per dolar, menguat 0.6 persen dari kemarin dan 4.2 persen lebih kuat dari pekan lalu. Ringgit Malaysia berada di 3.6950 per dolar, sedikit tidak berubah dari kemarin dan menguat 0.6 persen pekan ini. Dolar Taiwan menguat 0.9 persen di pekan ini menjadi NT$34.480, Dolar Singapura menguat 0.6 persen menjadi $ 1.5384 dan Bath Thailand menguat 0.5 persen menjadi 35.89. Peso Filipina dan Dong Vietnam sedikit tidak berubah di 48.50 dan 17,482.50.

Rencana Stimulus Asia & Laporan BOA Lemahkan Dolar AS

Yen melemah terhadap dolar AS, berpotensi mengalami penurunan untuk pekan ke-4 terhadap euro, karena saham global menguat berkat spekulasi krisis kredit global mereda, meredam permintaan untuk yen sebagai pelarian untuk safe haven. Lebih baik dari perkiraan laporan Retail Sales AS bulan Februari (-0.1% m/m, +1.8% di Januari), memicu perkiraan konsumen di AS masih cukup komsumtif yang dapat mendorong pulihnya kinerja perekonomian di AS, dan merubah prediksi penulis untuk pertumbuhan GDP Q1 09 menjadi (-4.5% Q/q). Euro berpotensi penguatan mingguan terbesar terhadap dolar di tahun ini setelah anggota dewan ECB Yves Mersch mengatakan beliau tidak melihat resiko deflasi di euro, meredam tekanan kepada ECB untuk menurunkan suku bunga. Swiss franc berpotensi mengalami pelemahan mingguan terbesar terhadap euro sejak 1999 setelah SNB kemarin memangkas suku bunga mendekati nol persen dan mulai membeli mata uang untuk meredam apresiasi Swiss franc.

Yen melemah ke 126.56 terhadap euro pada pukul 07.35 waktu London dari 126.16 di sesi NY kemarin. yen melemah ke 98.04 per dolar dari 97.72. Euro sedikit tidak berubah terhadap dolar di $ 1.2911 dari $ 1.2913. Swiss franc melemah ke 1.5333 per euro dari 1.5299 kemarin, ketika mencatat rekor penurunan 3.3 persen. Swiss franc melemah ke 1.1879 terhadap dolar dari $ 1.1851.Indeks Nikkei 225 menguat 5.2 persen dan indeks regional MSCI Asia Pasific menguat 3.4 persen setelah Menteri Keuangan Jepang Kauro Yosano mengatakan PM Taro ASo mempersiapkan rencana stimulus ketiga dan CHina memberikan signal stimulus tambahan untuk mengenjot ekonomi.Laporan Bank of America mencatat keuntungan di bulan Januari-Februari, bergabung dengan JP Morgan dan CItigroup di awal pekan ini, ikut memberikan sentimen positif. Yen masih berpotensi menguat terhadap dolar berkat spekulasi perusahaan Jepang akan menarik kembali pendapatan dari aset luar negeri sebelum akhir tahun bisnis berakhir. Jepang mungkin merepatriasi pendapatan sebagaimana Jerman membayar 15.6 miliar euro ($ 20.1 miliar) untuk pembayaran kupon dan principal dari hutang pemerintah pada hari ini.

Thursday, March 12, 2009

Forex Technical Analysis Jangka Pendek: EUR-USD, GBP-USD, USD-JPY

EUR-USD. Pemulihan euro yg choppy dari 1.2456 seharusnya dukung penguatan lebih lanjut. Meski pandangan jangka pendek masih bearish selama dibawah resistance 1.2991, target $1,255 support, jika tidak dapat bertahan dilevel tersebut target 1.2456/1.2329. Kondisi 4 jam MACD bullish divergence, jika break 1.2991 target 1.3329 (38.2% retracement 1.4719 - 1.2456, tetapi jika bottom 1.2329 break target 1.1639.
GBP-USD. Pulih dari low 1.3654 kemudian rebound ke 1.3907 menunjukkan level bottom seharusnya dapat bertahan, meski pandangan trend berbalik netral dengan resiko ke 1.4002 (4 jam 55 EMA). Med-term selama GBP dibawah 1.4304 potensi penguatan terbatas. Jika level 1.3659 break target 1.3503. Elliot wave: GBP telah menyelesaikan 5 wave sequence dari 2.0158 (1,7445, 1.8660, 1.4557, 1.5722, 1.3503). Penurunan ke 1.3503 merupakan konsolidasi dari downtrend,tetapi jika 1.3503 tembus target minimal 1.2813.
USD-JPY. Tembusnya support di 97.60 dukung penurunan, koreksi dari high 99.68 dianggap selesai. Potensi penurunan selama berada dibawah 97.44 untuk target 1 di 94.87 (38.2% retracement 87.12 - 99.68. Tetapi strong support di 92.50 jika tembus target 87.12. Untuk pulihkan trend bullish, jika tembus level 100/104 target 110 (downtrend dari 124.19 dianggap selesai).

Repatriasi Dana Dukung Penguatan Dolar & Yen

Dolar dan yen menguat terhadap euro berkat perkiraan krisis ekonomi global kian memburuk. Yen juga menguat terhadap aussie dan kiwi Selandia Baru setelah RBNZ pangkas suku bunga 0.5% menjadi 3.0%. MSCI World Index melemah 0.8% untuk pertama kali dalam 3 sesi terakhir. Euro melemah berkat rekor penurunan produksi industri Jerman (-7.9% m/m) di bulan Januarì, yg memicu spekulasi penurunan suku bunga ECB di bulan Mei. Sementara GDP Q4 08 Jepang direvisi menjadi -12.1% dari -12.7% dalam laporan sebelumnya. Penguatan dolar dan yen merupakan pelarian ke aset safe haven berkat aksi repatriasi dana oleh investor AS & Jepang.

Laporan World Bank bahwa ekonomi global akan terkontraksi utk pertama kali sejak PD 2, anjloknya ekspor China, penurunan mortgage lending Inggris dan perkiraan penurunan penjualan ritel AS (-0.5%) & jobless Claims (600k) dirilis hari ini, dan anjloknya DJI futures (-67 poin), penurunan harga komoditi, masih dukung risk aversion diantara ìnvestor. Potensi penurunan rating hutang negara di Eropa dapat memperburuk pandangan finansial di Eropa, negatif untuk mata uang Eropa. SNB diperkirakan pangkas Libor 3-bulan sebesar 25bsp menjadi 0.25%.

Update news: Filling foreclosures AS naik di pekan lalu. Retail Sales Feb AS -0.1% dari revisi +1.8% di Januari (positif upgrade utk prediksi GDP Q1 09 menjadi -4.5% dari -5.9%. Jobless claims pekan lalu 654k dari revisi 645k.

IHSG Raih Support Dari Faktor Sentimen & Regional

IHSG raih support dari faktor regional yg mengalami strong RALLY dari positifnya laporan Citigroup & saham energi global kemarin, dukung kondisi indikator teknikal yg oversold. Dampak penurunan suku bunga BI 50bsp pekan lalu, investor asing bukukan net buying dlm 3 sesi terakhir, penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar (sempat sentuh 11,813/dolar) ikut serta pulihkan IHSG hingga akhir pekan. Meski kekhawatiran memburuknya resesi global (ekspor+inflasi China anjlok, penggangguran AS terburuk sejak 1983, krisis finansial di Eropa), penurunan harga minyak (kenaikan inventory AS), seharusnya batasi kenaikan di atas 1,355 (opening 2009).

Technical analysis: IHSG raih keuntungan dari indikator Stochastic daily crossing up melewati teritorial bullish, ditutup diatas 5 & 20-day MA (1,285;1,302) & pivot point di 1,311, breakout trendline di 1,290, white candle, volume meningkat...meski terbatas hingga Jumat, karena MACD masih di teritorial negatif, di bwh 50-day MA (1,325), berada di sub wave zigzag A @ wave koreksi IV target 1,355 (upper Bolinger,pivot R3) utk koreksi turun ke 1,245/1,190 dalam 2-4 pekan mendatang. Potensi kenaikan terbatas di resistance 1,326/1,335/1,349, support 1,307/1,297/1,282. Buy intraday lows (jam 10-11): saham banking (bbri,bmri,bbca),energi (pgas,medc,ptro),commodity (ptba,itmg,unsp,bumi,aali,indy),etc (asii,unvr,untr,indf,intp,tlkm,elty) for +10-20% return 1-2 pekan, risk 5-10%.

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Daily Commodities Market Recap and Technical Analysis

March 11 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell for a second day amid speculation a government report today will show U.S. inventories gained as demand weakened.

The Energy Department may say supplies rose 250,000 barrels last week, according to the median of 14 analyst responses in a Bloomberg News survey. China, the world’s second-biggest energy user, cut net crude-oil imports to the lowest in at least two years in February as a slowing economy caused refiners to reduce purchases.

Crude oil for April delivery fell as much as 66 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $45.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, trading for $45.34 at 10:51 a.m. London time. Prices are up 1.6 percent so far this year.

Gold rose for the first day this week in London as some investors and manufacturers bought the metal after its slump to a one-month low. Silver also advanced.

Gold dropped 4.4 percent in the past two days and yesterday fell to $891.33 an ounce, the lowest since Feb. 9. Assets in the ETFS Physical Gold fund traded on European stock exchanges climbed 0.3 percent to a record 2.37 million ounces yesterday, according to figures from its manager ETF Securities Ltd.

Gold for immediate delivery climbed $5.29, or 0.6 percent, to $903.44 an ounce at 9:11 a.m. local time.

TRADING THE PRECIOUS METALS & FOOD

Crude palm oil prices are likely to rise to MYR2,200 a metric ton by June on falling inventories, slower growth in production and strong demand from East Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea, a senior industry executive and analyst said Tuesday.

August gold closed lower on Monday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 672.80 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 682.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 666.80 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.

July silver closed slightly lower on Monday as it consolidates some of last week's rally but remains above trendline resistance crossing near 13.673. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends last week's rally, April's high crossing at 14.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 13.252 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.

July copper closed higher on Monday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 343.87 confirming that a low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the reaction high crossing at 369.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 334.00 would temper the near- term friendly outlook.

July cocoa closed lower on Monday as it extended last week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this Monday's decline, May's low crossing at 17.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 19.11 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.

Japan Stocks Rally on Bank-Recovery Optimism, HK Shares End Up For 2nd Day

Japan Stocks Rally on Bank-Recovery Optimism; Toshiba Soars

March 11 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks rallied after Citigroup Inc. said it had a profit in the first two months of this year, triggering speculation a recovery of the global financial system is in sight.

Mizuho Financial Group Inc., the Japanese bank with the biggest subprime writedowns, gained 5.4 percent, following a worldwide rebound in equities. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. advanced 4.1 percent, even after a real estate company to which it lent money became Japan’s third-biggest bankruptcy this year. Toshiba Corp. leapt 9.5 percent on a newspaper report it may return to profit next fiscal year.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average jumped 321.14, or 4.6 percent, to close at 7,376.12 in Tokyo, the biggest gain since Jan. 27. The broader Topix index added 18.78, or 2.7 percent, to 722.28, with three stocks rising for each that slumped.

The Nikkei’s constituents traded at 0.81 times their corporate net worth as of yesterday, the lowest level on record dating back to July 1989, according to Nikkei Inc. The price-to- book ratio indicates the stocks are undervalued, Hiroichi Nishi, an equities manager at Nikko Cordial Securities Inc., said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

Nikkei futures expiring in March added 5 percent to 7,390 in Osaka and gained 4.6 percent to 7,370 in Singapore.

Technical Analysis:
The 5, 10, 20 day MA was shown to correcting lower, that should told us Nikkei 225 in still bearish mode (MACD in a negative teritorial, eventhough a sharp rally today was caused by an oversold stochastic & doji star candle in daily charts should lift the index to 7,500/7,550 before going down once again to below 7,000 in any time soon. Resistance for 12/03 at 7,510, support 7,290. (Andri Zakarias Siregar).

















HK Shares End Up For 2nd Day

HONG KONG (Dow Jones)--Wall Street's overnight strength and gains in financial firms after Citigroup said it was profitable in the first two months helped reassure investors, sending Hong Kong's benchmark index higher for a second consecutive session Wednesday. The Hang Seng Index rose 236.61 points, or 2.02%, to 11,930.66 after trading between 11,904.61 and 12,228.22. Turnover rose to HK$44.72 billion from HK$33.49 billion Tuesday. The index is likely to face pressure in the near term because of the weak global economy and disappointing corporate earnings, analysts said. Phillip Asset Management portfolio manager Y.K. Chan said he expects the rally to be short-lived, adding the Hang Seng Index will likely meet resistance at 12,500 soon after. The blue-chip index has gained 5.2% in the past two sessions after sliding 4.8% Monday. 'We think sentiment is unlikely to improve shortly as investors expect disappointing results from blue-chip companies in the midst of the economic downturn,' Chan said. The local market was boosted by the Dow Jones Industrial Average's 5.8% gain overnight, its biggest point and percentage gain since late November, led by a rally in financial stocks. Citigroup's surge on Wall Street overnight also lifted general sentiment in local financial stocks, traders said. HSBC shares continued to rally for a second consecutive day Wednesday, ahead of the stock going ex-rights Thursday. HSBC Asia Pacific Chief Executive Sandy Flockhart said shareholders have responded 'extremely well' to the bank's US$17.7 billion rights issue plan, and his positive comments on the bank's operation outlook helped boost investors' confidence in the bank, traders said.
Technical Analysis
The short trend is still bearish, becaused all MA's indicators was in bearish mode & pointing lower, MACD still in a bearish teritory, stochastic even in an oversold condition, could manage lead the index to have lower low any time soon. AS long as index could not hold above 12,180 (higher low) in 2 day closing, target still 11,450/11,500 maybe 10,670 (6 months's low)any time soon. But if index could hold above that level, index should tick higher to 12,500. Resistance 12,230, support 11,900/11,695. (Andri Zakarias Siregar).

ETF Outflows Tied To Tax-Swap Moves

After a brief rally in January, the global equity markets continued to sell off in the following month as investors once again expressed concerns about economic news and the health of the global economy. At the end of February, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stood at 7063 (down 19.5% for the year). The new administration's Fiscal Stimulus Plan has done little to calm the markets as the DJIA dropped below 6600 -- it's the lowest level since 1995. In this challenging environment, financial advisors and investors continue to seek ETF strategies that will perform well and dampen portfolio volatility.

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Don't Be Surprised If We See $20 Oil Says Roubini

Oil's held firmly around the $45 marker for a few weeks now, lifting slowly but steadily from December lows. Most traders and analysts are anticipating cuts in production from OPEC to drive the price higher. But it's still part guessing game.

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Rupiah Menguat Untuk Hari Ke-2, Obligasi & Saham Menguat

Rupiah Indonesia menguat untuk hari ke-2 terhadap dolar karena spekulasi pendanaan bank di AS membaik dan memulihkan daya tarik untuk beresiko, meningkatkan permintaan untuk saham dan asset di negara emerging. Obligasi dan saham lokal menguat.

















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Economic Depression Investing – Which Currencies to Hide in?

The world's a mess and in our eyes policy makers are inadvertently doing their best to worsen a bad situation. Let's assume you've had it and want to hide somewhere safe to ride out the storm. Unfortunately there appears to be no such thing as a safe asset anymore. Therefore you may want to consider taking a diversified approach to something as mundane as cash. Sure, U.S. Treasury Bills are the one “safe” asset – at least by regulation.

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Forex Today : Fundamental & Technical Analysis

March 11 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar and the yen gained after China’s government said exports plunged by a record last month, reviving demand for the two currencies as a refuge from the deepening global recession. The U.S. and Japanese currencies strengthened versus those offering higher yields such as the Australian dollar after China’s customs bureau said the trade surplus narrowed to the least since February 2006. The euro fell for the first time in four days against the yen on speculation European Central Bank council member Erkki Liikanen will signal policy makers may cut interest rates further. South Korea’s won rose for a fourth day, the longest stretch this year.

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Contracting Corporate Earnings Confirm Dow 5,000 Stocks Bear Market Target

This week's writer of the Outside the Box is no stranger to long time readers. Michael Lewitt writes the HCM Market Letter and is one of my favorite writers and truly deep thinkers. He has recently decided to turn his letter into a subscription based model and is meeting with some success, as he should. So, sadly, he will no longer be a regular feature of OTB, but he did allow me to use the current letter, as I think it is one of his more provocative letters.

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Grand Illusion - The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank

The whole world is in a state of complete confusion. Americans are coming to the realization that their lives have been a grand illusion. You thought your neighbor had it made. They were driving a Mercedes, spent $40,000 on a new kitchen with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, sent their kids to private school, had a second home at the shore, and took exotic vacations all over the world. Now their house is in foreclosure and you are paying to bail them out. The anger and outrage in the country is at the highest level since the Vietnam War. The American public is being misled by government officials, politicians, and the Federal Reserve regarding the causes of this crisis and the solutions needed to solve our economic tribulations.

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America's Second Great Depression and Great Stocks Bear Market Have Arrived

Emergency Briefing Transcript - America's Second Great Depression has arrived; and a great bear market is here. I prayed this day would never come as often as I predicted it. But now that it's here, I have a new prayer:

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Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Nikkei 225 Fall, Hang Seng End Higher

Japan Stocks Fall a 3rd Day on Demand Concern; Insurers Rise

March 10 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks fell for a third day, renewing the Nikkei 225 Stock Average’s 26-year low, on concern shrinking global demand and rising fuel prices will weigh on company earnings.

Sony Corp., which gets a quarter of its sales from the U.S., lost 2.3 percent after billionaire investor Warren Buffett said the U.S. economy “has fallen off a cliff.” Tokyo Electric Power Co. dropped 3.6 percent after crude prices rose. Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. fell 3.9 percent, extending yesterday’s 13 percent drop on concern U.S. approval of its diabetes drug will be delayed. Sony Financial Holdings Inc. surged 12 percent, leading a rally by insurers from a near six-year low.

The Nikkei 225 retreated 31.05, or 0.4 percent, to close at 7,054.98 in Tokyo, bringing its three-day drop to 5.1 percent. The measure yesterday closed at the lowest since Oct. 6, 1982, when it reached 6,974.35. The broader Topix index fell 7.03, or 1 percent, to 703.50.

Financial companies “have been oversold, even though the nation’s banking system is relatively unscathed,” said Shinkin Asset’s Fujiwara. “The government needs to present effective economic plans promptly, rather than supporting the market.”

Nikkei futures expiring in March dipped 0.1 percent to 7,040 in Osaka and retreated 0.1 percent to 7,045 in Singapore.















HK Shares End Higher Led By HSBC, Oil Cos; Weakness Expected

(Dow Jones)--A big jump in HSBC on bargain hunting, helping it recoup some of its massive losses Monday, and gains in oil firms on rising crude prices led Hong Kong shares to a sharply higher close Tuesday. The Hang Seng Index rose 349.47 points, or 3.1%, to 11,694.05 after trading between 11,542.88 and 11,747.11. Turnover fell to HK$33.49 billion from HK$35.79 billion Monday. Analysts said they don't believe the blue-chip index's gains are sustainable, however, because of continuing concerns about the global economic downturn.

They said they expect the index will soon breach its five-year-low of 10,676 hit Oct. 27. ICEA Securities strategist Ernie Hon said he expects the index to come under renewed downward pressure this week. 'Given weakness in overseas markets, we're heading to a retest of last October's low in the short term,' Hon said. HSBC was the day's biggest blue-chip gainer after it slid 24% Monday to its lowest close since August 1995, as investors sold down the U.K. lender ahead of its US$17.7 billion rights issue later in the week.

UOB KayHian director Steven Leung said he expects the Hang Seng Index to trade between 11,000 and 12,000 in the short term. 'It will be difficult for HSBC to recover back above the HK$40.00 level in the near term and this means the Hang Seng Index is unlikely to regain the 12,000 mark,' Leung said.

Daily Commodities Market Recap and Technical Analysis

August gold closed lower on Monday and above he 20-day moving average crossing at 672.80 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 682.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 666.80 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.

July cocoa closed lower on Monday as it extended last week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this Monday's decline, May's low crossing at 17.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 19.11 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.

July copper closed higher on Monday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 343.87 confirming that a low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the reaction high crossing at 369.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 334.00 would temper the near- term friendly outlook.

Rupiah Menguat Berkat Intervensi BI, Saham Melejit

Rupiah, yang merupakan mata uang terlemah di Asia dalam 3 bulan terakhir, menguat berkat spekulasi bank sentral akan melakukan intervensi untuk menahan laju pelemahan.

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Forex Today - Fundamental & Technical Analysis

The dollar and the yen declined as gains in Asian stocks fuelled speculation demand for higher- yielding assets will increase. The euro approached a two-month high against the yen on bets European investors will bring home overseas earnings before the end of the financial quarter. South Korea’s won gained the most in almost two months against the dollar as overseas investors bought more of the nation’s shares than they sold. The Australian and New Zealand dollars advanced as Asian stocks rose.

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Week Ahead: Watching Washington, Fearing Financials

NEW YORK (Reuters) - With stocks mired in multi-year lows and the fate of General Motors and banks hanging in the balance, investors are unlikely to curb their flight from risk this week, putting Wall Street on track for another brutal sell-off.

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US Recession Could Last Up to 36 Months: Roubini

The man who predicted the current financial crisis said the US recession could drag on for years without drastic action. Among his solutions: fix the housing market by breaking "every mortgage contract."

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Warren Buffett to CNBC: Economy Has "Fallen Off a Cliff"

Warren Buffett tells CNBC's Becky Quick the U.S. economy has "fallen off a cliff."
During a three-hour appearance on Squawk Box this morning (Monday), Buffett said economic developments have been very "close to the worst case" that he had imagined, although conditions would be far worse if the Federal Reserve hadn't stepped in last September.

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Stock Market Trends March 2009: Bear Market Targets S&P 600

To identify the stock market trend, it is best to begin with the big picture in mind and then work our way down to weekly and then daily views of the charts. You will notice that the chart and the value of the indicators change as we move from a monthly to a weekly and then a daily chart. This is a normal part of the technical analysis.

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Obama's Bonds and Stocks Bear Market

The Employment Situation? Grim - Nonfarm payroll employment continued to fall sharply in February (-651,000), and the unemployment rate rose from 7.6 to 8.1 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Payroll employment has declined by 2.6 million in the past 4 months. In February, job losses were large and widespread across nearly all major industry sectors.

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Nasdaq Stock Market 21 Year Elliott Wave Pattern Forecast

Desperately Seeking Stability - At the worst of the two-year dot.com bust, the NASDAQ registered a 78% peak to trough decline. In the following five-years spanning 2002-2007, though the market came nowhere near reclaiming its former value, it nonetheless posted a 158% five-year trough to peak bull market return.

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