IHSG Outlook
Ind P/E (x)
EPS
Y/Y Y/Y Suku Bunga* Inflasi*
Y/Y GDP*
Y/Y
IHSG 13.1 8% -12.1% 7.00% 3.65% 4.4%
STI 19.8 16% -22.4% 0.69% -0.70% -10.1%
KLCI 13.8 10% -10.6% 2.0% 3.00% -6.2%
SET 12.7 4% -23.2% 1.25% -3.30% -7.10%
SSE 35.8 36% +0.9% 5.31% -1.40% 6.10%
N225 45.0 -1% -28.4% 0.10% -0.10% -9.7%
HSI 21.5 19% -17.7% 0.50% 0.60% -7.80%
DJIA 25.0 3% -26.3% 0.25% -1.3% -2.5%
Sejumlah faktor eksternal yang negatif dan kondisi teknikal yang menunjukkan signal negatif kemarin, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas dan cenderung terkoreksi turun. Di samping investor telah mengantisipasi penurunan suku bunga BI sebesar 25 bsp menjadi 6.75% (buy on rumor, sell on the news), kecuali BI memangkas 50 bsp hari ini, dimana dapat memicu aksi pemburuan saham perbankan, property dan konsumsi yang mendapatkan keuntungan dari potensi bergairahnya sektor riil di bulan mendatang. Laporan sejumlah perusahaan migas di Jakarta (Pertamina, Shell, Total) telah menaikkan harga jual BBM non subsidi, karena kenaikan harga minyak baru-baru ini di atas $ 70/barel, ikut memberikan sentimen negatif dari perkiraan disparitas harga keekonomian yang semakin tinggi. Meski harga minyak kemarin terkoreksi ke level $ 66.54, dapat merontokkan harga saham komoditas lokal, seharusnya dapat dibatasi oleh saham yang mendapatkan support dari sensitifitas terhadap inflasi dan suku bunga (BPS memprediksikan inflasi Juli masih berada di bawah 4% y/y). Sementara dari faktor eksternal, data tenaga kerja AS mengecewakan investor saham Eropa dan AS dan situasi darurat fiskal di Kalifornia AS, dapat membebani indeks saham global yang berimbas negatif ke IHSG.
Hold (30/06:Return>10%; risk <10%): BUMI/BNBR/ENRG/ELTY, ASIII,KIJA*,HEXA*,BBRI*,BMRI*,BBNI*,ANTM,INCO*,INTP.BMTR**/MNCN**
* Menguat sejak 30/06. ** Target tercapai.
Stock Picks:
* BNII neutral target Rp 400
* JSMR hold target Rp 2025
Global Outlook
Perkiraan aksi profit-taking di sejumlah indeks saham regional Asia dan AS kemarin menjadi kenyataan, terutama setelah melihat data tenaga kerja AS menunjukkan non farm payroll Juni AS lebih lemah dari perkiraan pasar (-467K dari perkiraan -355K), Unemployment meningkat ke 9.5% merupakan level tertinggi sejak tahun 1983, continued jobless claims tercatat 6.702 juta orang, memicu kekhawatiran terhadap kestabilan pemulihan ekonomi global, mendorong investor melakukan risk aversion dengan menghindari aset yang beresiko seperti saham dan komoditi, untuk diinvestasikan ke dolar AS dan Treasury AS yang lebih aman. Laporan banjir besar di Cina, kenaikan harga BBM di India, situasi darurat fiskal di Kalifornia AS dan penurunan sejumlah harga komoditas global menjelang liburan di AS (Bank Holiday & Independence Day) dapat memicu koreksi penurunan indeks saham global hari ini. Meski potensi koreksi terbatas menjelang pertemuann negara G8 pekan depan.
Technical Analysis:
Laju kenaikan IHSG dapat terhenti hari ini, karena signal negatif dari pola candle doji star kemarin dan berpotensi menunjukkan pola candle evening doji star hari ini (jika gagal ditutup diatas 2,052 support line), karena seperti diperkirakan kemarin mengikuti petunjuk dari indikator ADX menunjukkan trending higher, seharusnya mendorong pembalikan trend, sesuai dengan hitungan E.W. meski IHSG masih ditutup diatas 5-day MA (2,044)/10-day MA (2,013), stochastic mendekati teritorial overbought, MACD weak bullish, seharusnya memicu perkiraan peluang kenaikan terbatas. Hitungan Elliot Wave: IHSG kemungkinan menunjukkan wave b akan berakhir di high 2,085 selama tidak melewati range atas 2,060/2,116 (high 10/06) untuk dalam proses target wave 4 di support 1950/1910 (50.0 FR 2116-1708) dalam 4 intermediate (4) / cycle (B) .
Resistance: 2112.37/2098.02/2089.95/2075.60. PP 2069.32
Support : 2046.91/2026.27/2011.92/1997.58
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2,000 - 2,085)
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Thursday, July 2, 2009
Canada Dollar’s ‘Reversal’ May Signal Gains: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Canada’s dollar may appreciate 2.1 percent against its U.S. counterpart after the currency pair posted an “outside reversal,” according to BMO Capital Markets, a unit of Canada’s fourth-largest bank.The pattern “could signal that the pair is about to resume its test of the downside,” Jonathan Gencher, Toronto-based director of foreign-exchange sales at BMO Capital, wrote today in a note to clients. An outside reversal occurs when a currency’s daily high and low exceed those of the previous day. When it occurs close to a so-called resistance level, the signal is considered bearish, meaning in this case the U.S. dollar may weaken against the Canadian currency. Resistance refers to the upper boundary of a trading range, where sell orders may be clustered.
The loonie, as Canada’s dollar is known, may advance to C$1.1250 if it breaks through its 50-day moving average level of about C$1.1460, Gencher wrote. That would be 2.1 percent stronger than yesterday’s close at C$1.1496. The U.S. dollar rose as high as C$1.1656 yesterday, compared with C$1.1640 the day before. It fell as low as C$1.1439 yesterday, versus C$1.1511 a day earlier.Technical analysis is the study of trading patterns for signals that may foreshadow price changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.
The loonie, as Canada’s dollar is known, may advance to C$1.1250 if it breaks through its 50-day moving average level of about C$1.1460, Gencher wrote. That would be 2.1 percent stronger than yesterday’s close at C$1.1496. The U.S. dollar rose as high as C$1.1656 yesterday, compared with C$1.1640 the day before. It fell as low as C$1.1439 yesterday, versus C$1.1511 a day earlier.Technical analysis is the study of trading patterns for signals that may foreshadow price changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Jul 02 09 06:53 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's fall extends further today and break of 68.45 support confirms that rise from 66.25 has completed. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside and further fall should be seen to test 66.26 support. Note that sustained break there will be an important signal of double top reversal pattern (73.23, 73.38) and will indicate that Crude oil has already topped out. In such case, short term outlook will be turned bearish and we'd anticipate at least a test trend line support (now at 59.12). On the upside, above 69.79 will turn intraday outlook neutral and suggest that price actions from 73.23 are probably sideway consolidation rather then reversal.
In the bigger picture, rise from 33.20 is still in progress and there is no confirmation that it's completed yet. Though, note that daily MACD's break of its up trend line provides a signal that such up trend is near to the end. Hence, we'd continue to monitor loss of up side momentum as crude oil approaches 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. On the downside, break of 66.25 support will be an important indication that crude oil has topped out and will turn focus to 45.44/54.66 support zone for confirmation.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's fall extends further today and break of 68.45 support confirms that rise from 66.25 has completed. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside and further fall should be seen to test 66.26 support. Note that sustained break there will be an important signal of double top reversal pattern (73.23, 73.38) and will indicate that Crude oil has already topped out. In such case, short term outlook will be turned bearish and we'd anticipate at least a test trend line support (now at 59.12). On the upside, above 69.79 will turn intraday outlook neutral and suggest that price actions from 73.23 are probably sideway consolidation rather then reversal.
In the bigger picture, rise from 33.20 is still in progress and there is no confirmation that it's completed yet. Though, note that daily MACD's break of its up trend line provides a signal that such up trend is near to the end. Hence, we'd continue to monitor loss of up side momentum as crude oil approaches 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. On the downside, break of 66.25 support will be an important indication that crude oil has topped out and will turn focus to 45.44/54.66 support zone for confirmation.
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Jul 02 09 06:56 ET
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold continues to flip flop below 938.1 and short term outlook is rather mixed for the moment. Though, note that price actions from 913.2 are treated as consolidation to the fall from 992.1 only. Hence, while some more choppy sideway trading might be seen, and another rise to above 938.1 cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 992.1 to 913.2 at 962 to complete the consolidation and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 913.2 will indicate that decline from 992.1 has resumed and should target 865 low next.
In the bigger picture, recent development shifts favor back to the case that fall from 992.1 is the third leg of the consolidation from 1007.7, which is not completed. Break of 913.9 fibo support will target a test of 865 support before completing the whole consolidation. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) and bring resumption of rise from 681. On the upside, though, above 992.1 will revive the case that rise from 865 is resumption of up trend rather than part of sideway consolidation. In such case, retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance should be seen next.
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold continues to flip flop below 938.1 and short term outlook is rather mixed for the moment. Though, note that price actions from 913.2 are treated as consolidation to the fall from 992.1 only. Hence, while some more choppy sideway trading might be seen, and another rise to above 938.1 cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 992.1 to 913.2 at 962 to complete the consolidation and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 913.2 will indicate that decline from 992.1 has resumed and should target 865 low next.
In the bigger picture, recent development shifts favor back to the case that fall from 992.1 is the third leg of the consolidation from 1007.7, which is not completed. Break of 913.9 fibo support will target a test of 865 support before completing the whole consolidation. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) and bring resumption of rise from 681. On the upside, though, above 992.1 will revive the case that rise from 865 is resumption of up trend rather than part of sideway consolidation. In such case, retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance should be seen next.
Signal Teknikal Menunjukkan Potensi Kenaikan Regional Terbatas
SSIU9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
10015 9850 10000 9750 10080 9920 10180 9640 9735 9805 9970 10065 10135
Commentary
Di chart 4 jam, trend jangka pendek indeks SSIU9 masih menunjukkan trend bullish karena indeks masih berada dalam pola uptrend channel, setelah indeks gagal ditutup diatas resistance di 9,837 (50.0 FR 10180-9500), dimana dapat mengarahkan indeks ke target support di 9760 (61.8 FR)/9661 (76.4 FR). Indikator teknikal ADX menunjukkan flat, stochastic crossing up, dan MACD berada dalam teritorial positif. seharusnya dapat membatasi potensi penurunan hari ini. Penutupan indeks diatas 9921, dapat mendukung kelanjutan momentum kenaikan indeks. Perkiraan range hari ini pada kisaran 9700-9950.
Rekomendasi : Buy 9660 & 9750 target 10000 stop 100p, sell 10050 target 9800 stop 100p, buy 9510 target 9,850 stop 100p.
KSU9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
182.40 178.1 180.45 177.1 182.0 179.1 183.0 178.1 179.4 180.6 183.1 184.4 185.6
Commentary
Dalam chart 4-jam, indeks KSU9 berada dalam pola congestion di kisaran range 184.15-172.60, didukung oleh Indikator teknikal MACD bullish dan stochastic overbought, ADX flat, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi kenaikan hari ini terbatas. Potensi penurunan masih terbuka dari pla candle hanging man, jika indeks gagal menembus resistance 184.10. Ditutup diatas level tersebut target 1886.16 (downtrend line 4 jam). Tetapi jika indeks ditutup dibawah support line di 172.15, trend akan berbalik bearish, target 170.11 (50.0 FR)/166.80 (61.8 FR). Perkiraan range hari ini: 178.00-184.00
Rekomendasi :Sell break 177.50 target 179.00 stop 60p, sell 183 & 184 target 178.00 stop 100p. buy 178.00 target 176.00. Sell break 172.50 target 170.00 stop 100p. buy 175.80 target 178.50 stop 100p. (+170p)
HSIN9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
18420 18438 18750 18338 18906 18594 19006 17048 17529 17827 18606 19087 19385
Commentary
Dalam chart 4 jam, indeks menunjukkan signal bearish setelah berada di bawah support channel dalam uptrend channel, setelah ditutup dibawah 18,203. pola candle daily menunjukkan pola two crows yang merupakan indikasi bearish. Sementara indikator teknikal ADX meningkat dan stochastic crossing up, meski MACD masih berada di teritorial positif, menunjukkan potensi penurunan terbuka. Indeks dapat menetralkan tekanan bearish dalam trend buliish saat ini, jika ditutup diatas 18683 (middle channel line) Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks tealh menyelesaikan wave c / (ii) dalam subwave motive (3) telah berakhir di di 19,100 dalam cycle B. Perkiraan range hari ini : 17,800-18.500
Rekomendasi : Buy 17650 & 17980 & 18710 target 18900 (or closing) stop 50 p. sell break 17870 target 17650 stop 100 poin. buy break 18375 target 18600 stop 100p. sell 18630 target 18300 stop 50p, Sell 18900 target 18400 stop 100p. (-50+220p)
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10015 9850 10000 9750 10080 9920 10180 9640 9735 9805 9970 10065 10135
Commentary
Di chart 4 jam, trend jangka pendek indeks SSIU9 masih menunjukkan trend bullish karena indeks masih berada dalam pola uptrend channel, setelah indeks gagal ditutup diatas resistance di 9,837 (50.0 FR 10180-9500), dimana dapat mengarahkan indeks ke target support di 9760 (61.8 FR)/9661 (76.4 FR). Indikator teknikal ADX menunjukkan flat, stochastic crossing up, dan MACD berada dalam teritorial positif. seharusnya dapat membatasi potensi penurunan hari ini. Penutupan indeks diatas 9921, dapat mendukung kelanjutan momentum kenaikan indeks. Perkiraan range hari ini pada kisaran 9700-9950.
Rekomendasi : Buy 9660 & 9750 target 10000 stop 100p, sell 10050 target 9800 stop 100p, buy 9510 target 9,850 stop 100p.
KSU9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
182.40 178.1 180.45 177.1 182.0 179.1 183.0 178.1 179.4 180.6 183.1 184.4 185.6
Commentary
Dalam chart 4-jam, indeks KSU9 berada dalam pola congestion di kisaran range 184.15-172.60, didukung oleh Indikator teknikal MACD bullish dan stochastic overbought, ADX flat, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi kenaikan hari ini terbatas. Potensi penurunan masih terbuka dari pla candle hanging man, jika indeks gagal menembus resistance 184.10. Ditutup diatas level tersebut target 1886.16 (downtrend line 4 jam). Tetapi jika indeks ditutup dibawah support line di 172.15, trend akan berbalik bearish, target 170.11 (50.0 FR)/166.80 (61.8 FR). Perkiraan range hari ini: 178.00-184.00
Rekomendasi :Sell break 177.50 target 179.00 stop 60p, sell 183 & 184 target 178.00 stop 100p. buy 178.00 target 176.00. Sell break 172.50 target 170.00 stop 100p. buy 175.80 target 178.50 stop 100p. (+170p)
HSIN9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
18420 18438 18750 18338 18906 18594 19006 17048 17529 17827 18606 19087 19385
Commentary
Dalam chart 4 jam, indeks menunjukkan signal bearish setelah berada di bawah support channel dalam uptrend channel, setelah ditutup dibawah 18,203. pola candle daily menunjukkan pola two crows yang merupakan indikasi bearish. Sementara indikator teknikal ADX meningkat dan stochastic crossing up, meski MACD masih berada di teritorial positif, menunjukkan potensi penurunan terbuka. Indeks dapat menetralkan tekanan bearish dalam trend buliish saat ini, jika ditutup diatas 18683 (middle channel line) Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks tealh menyelesaikan wave c / (ii) dalam subwave motive (3) telah berakhir di di 19,100 dalam cycle B. Perkiraan range hari ini : 17,800-18.500
Rekomendasi : Buy 17650 & 17980 & 18710 target 18900 (or closing) stop 50 p. sell break 17870 target 17650 stop 100 poin. buy break 18375 target 18600 stop 100p. sell 18630 target 18300 stop 50p, Sell 18900 target 18400 stop 100p. (-50+220p)
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Financial Markets Bi Annual Review
By: GoldCore
Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWith the end of the second quarter it is important to take stock and review how various assets have performed so far in 2009.
As per the tables below, gold and particularly silver have continued to outperform the vast majority of equity markets in the last six months. This is the particularly the case in terms of dollars (gold up 5.8%; silver up 21%) and euros (gold up 5.15%; silver up 20.3%). Thus gold again outperformed the benchmark S&P 500 (up 1.8%) even after equity markets sharp rallies in the 2nd quarter.
Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWith the end of the second quarter it is important to take stock and review how various assets have performed so far in 2009.
As per the tables below, gold and particularly silver have continued to outperform the vast majority of equity markets in the last six months. This is the particularly the case in terms of dollars (gold up 5.8%; silver up 21%) and euros (gold up 5.15%; silver up 20.3%). Thus gold again outperformed the benchmark S&P 500 (up 1.8%) even after equity markets sharp rallies in the 2nd quarter.
Million Dollar Question, What's Next for S&P 500 Stock Market Index
By: Prasoon_Gopal
Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleS&P 500 has rallied over 40% in the last 3 months. It takes over 5 years under "normal" circumstances for such a rally to occur. But again, folks will say, it takes as many years for 50% downside as well. So, i will rest this discussion at peace.When you are trading stocks, etf's, mutual funds or any other instrument, you always have a plan. Plan comprises of Entry and exit strategies. Apart from this, the most important factor is the risk/reward ratio. Meaning, what do you think is most favorable trend. For example, if you believe stocks have more than 60% chance of going up, you go long with strict stop losses. If you believe that there is more than 90% chance, then you probably will go "all in" with more wider stop loss in place. Direction is irrelevant as you can go long or go short.With all the indices up over 40% without any correction, you will default to shorting stocks/etf's at these levels, or at least tempted to. But is that the right step. Nobody knows as this is the million dollar question. I won't even go about discussing how Goldman Sachs and other financial institutions now control US stock markets. But only from purely traders perspective.
I believe too that the best option right now is to short. But is this really an emotional trade or does it have legs? To assess my own conclusions, i decided to take the "other side of the story" into consideration. Let us consider the bullish case.
1) Technically Long term moving averages are now showing extreme bullishness.
2) Golden cross (50 dma crossing above 200 dma) occured in late june.
3) The strength (for whatever reason, manipulation or whatever) in financial sector and stocks in the last 3 months tells us that govt will probably not let them repeat their late 2008 performance anymore. Which means obviously they will perform better than expected.
4) Banks have had the single most important thing to fix things. No it is NOT TARP or TALF, it is TIME. They bought time to fix their mess in more ways than one.
5) Green shoots or whatever the new acronym that comes out these days has made people believe that things are changing for good.
So where does that leave us, an average inestor? Should you be in bullish camp after all this analysis? I can go on and give you as many and even more bearish points to be short this market. But i don't have to go that far. Just one single point will be sufficient enough to take on the above 5 and even 100's more bullish stances.
Are you up for it???
Fundamentals. Yes, you got it right. Fundamentally S&P 500's P/E has been in the range of 16-18. Currently it stands at 20 as per S&P itself. So, why would that be a bad sign?
1) Bear markets do NOT bottom until the P/E is extremely attractive, usually in low single digits.
2) There hasn't been a single V shaped recovery as far as we can remember.
3) Most importantly, The current P/E is even POSITIVE because of all the gory accounting rules created to cover bad toxic assets and shield losses from them and other investments. NONE, yes NONE of the banks could have shown profits in the first quarter had they NOT been allowed to manipulate their books. Did ever think even once, if ALL the banks were this healthy, why on earth did we have $2 trillion worth of stimulus and multi-trillion $$$ FED guarantees on assets that are worth pennies on the dollar? Something doesn't sound right. In fact, even today, if you search google/bing you will see that there is a THIRD Stimulus already being discussed. If all is so good and green shoots working, then why would you need further bailouts again???
Bottom line is, to maintain S&P 500 P/E in the positive, banks were allowed to maniuplate their books using accounting rules that only they can understand. Had this NOT been the case, S&P P/E would have been negative for the first time in it's history. May be they even don't have programs to handle a negative P/E.
Ok, enough of my analysis. Let's get down to the numbers.
S&P 500 P/E at the end of 2008 as reported by S&P 500 (http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/xls/index/sp500pe_ratio.xls) was above 60. And this was on earnings of about $50 per share(http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/xls/index/SP500EPSEST.XLS). Earnings estimate in 2009 is around $55 per share. How on earth can 500 premium companies in the country earn MORE in 2009 than 2008 with over 10% and over 22% REAL unemployment (if we take into account part-time employment/unemployment) leading to lesser income and sales tax revenues with states struggling to keep up and so on. I have no idea. But even if we assume that this is correct, somehow, s&P 500 would be over 70 P/E (accordingly to S&P 500 calculations). I am not sure how are they computing this, but...
In realty though, if we take REAL financial numbers, S&P 500 P/E is way over 100.
Conclusion is, if the reported earnings are allowed to manipulate then nothing can really be done. But fundamentals will have to kick in at some point and when that happens we will go back to fair value of S&P 500 way below 500 taking away previous lows. So, i would say, if anything this is the best Shorting opportunity of your lifetime with assured returns in th next few months. Stop out if S&P 500 crosses 1050 and stays above this level for at least 1-2 weeks. Target 500.You risk about 13 to gain 46. Ratio being well over 3.5 (Reward/Risk). A very strong ratio indeed. Imagine if the ratio is this high for an index, then shorting stocks that have gone up 800-1000% in the last 3 months is beyond your imagination.
By Prasoon Gopal
Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleS&P 500 has rallied over 40% in the last 3 months. It takes over 5 years under "normal" circumstances for such a rally to occur. But again, folks will say, it takes as many years for 50% downside as well. So, i will rest this discussion at peace.When you are trading stocks, etf's, mutual funds or any other instrument, you always have a plan. Plan comprises of Entry and exit strategies. Apart from this, the most important factor is the risk/reward ratio. Meaning, what do you think is most favorable trend. For example, if you believe stocks have more than 60% chance of going up, you go long with strict stop losses. If you believe that there is more than 90% chance, then you probably will go "all in" with more wider stop loss in place. Direction is irrelevant as you can go long or go short.With all the indices up over 40% without any correction, you will default to shorting stocks/etf's at these levels, or at least tempted to. But is that the right step. Nobody knows as this is the million dollar question. I won't even go about discussing how Goldman Sachs and other financial institutions now control US stock markets. But only from purely traders perspective.
I believe too that the best option right now is to short. But is this really an emotional trade or does it have legs? To assess my own conclusions, i decided to take the "other side of the story" into consideration. Let us consider the bullish case.
1) Technically Long term moving averages are now showing extreme bullishness.
2) Golden cross (50 dma crossing above 200 dma) occured in late june.
3) The strength (for whatever reason, manipulation or whatever) in financial sector and stocks in the last 3 months tells us that govt will probably not let them repeat their late 2008 performance anymore. Which means obviously they will perform better than expected.
4) Banks have had the single most important thing to fix things. No it is NOT TARP or TALF, it is TIME. They bought time to fix their mess in more ways than one.
5) Green shoots or whatever the new acronym that comes out these days has made people believe that things are changing for good.
So where does that leave us, an average inestor? Should you be in bullish camp after all this analysis? I can go on and give you as many and even more bearish points to be short this market. But i don't have to go that far. Just one single point will be sufficient enough to take on the above 5 and even 100's more bullish stances.
Are you up for it???
Fundamentals. Yes, you got it right. Fundamentally S&P 500's P/E has been in the range of 16-18. Currently it stands at 20 as per S&P itself. So, why would that be a bad sign?
1) Bear markets do NOT bottom until the P/E is extremely attractive, usually in low single digits.
2) There hasn't been a single V shaped recovery as far as we can remember.
3) Most importantly, The current P/E is even POSITIVE because of all the gory accounting rules created to cover bad toxic assets and shield losses from them and other investments. NONE, yes NONE of the banks could have shown profits in the first quarter had they NOT been allowed to manipulate their books. Did ever think even once, if ALL the banks were this healthy, why on earth did we have $2 trillion worth of stimulus and multi-trillion $$$ FED guarantees on assets that are worth pennies on the dollar? Something doesn't sound right. In fact, even today, if you search google/bing you will see that there is a THIRD Stimulus already being discussed. If all is so good and green shoots working, then why would you need further bailouts again???
Bottom line is, to maintain S&P 500 P/E in the positive, banks were allowed to maniuplate their books using accounting rules that only they can understand. Had this NOT been the case, S&P P/E would have been negative for the first time in it's history. May be they even don't have programs to handle a negative P/E.
Ok, enough of my analysis. Let's get down to the numbers.
S&P 500 P/E at the end of 2008 as reported by S&P 500 (http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/xls/index/sp500pe_ratio.xls) was above 60. And this was on earnings of about $50 per share(http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/xls/index/SP500EPSEST.XLS). Earnings estimate in 2009 is around $55 per share. How on earth can 500 premium companies in the country earn MORE in 2009 than 2008 with over 10% and over 22% REAL unemployment (if we take into account part-time employment/unemployment) leading to lesser income and sales tax revenues with states struggling to keep up and so on. I have no idea. But even if we assume that this is correct, somehow, s&P 500 would be over 70 P/E (accordingly to S&P 500 calculations). I am not sure how are they computing this, but...
In realty though, if we take REAL financial numbers, S&P 500 P/E is way over 100.
Conclusion is, if the reported earnings are allowed to manipulate then nothing can really be done. But fundamentals will have to kick in at some point and when that happens we will go back to fair value of S&P 500 way below 500 taking away previous lows. So, i would say, if anything this is the best Shorting opportunity of your lifetime with assured returns in th next few months. Stop out if S&P 500 crosses 1050 and stays above this level for at least 1-2 weeks. Target 500.You risk about 13 to gain 46. Ratio being well over 3.5 (Reward/Risk). A very strong ratio indeed. Imagine if the ratio is this high for an index, then shorting stocks that have gone up 800-1000% in the last 3 months is beyond your imagination.
By Prasoon Gopal
Warning of Severe Economic Collapse, Mainstream Media Sustainable Recovery Hype
The mainstream media and government are communicating that the economy is on a positive track toward recovery while downplaying the likelihood of another economic catastrophe similar or worse than that experienced in the fourth quarter of 2008 and first quarter of 2009. In actuality, there is a significant chance that the U.S. will experience a severe economic collapse, beyond what has already been experienced, either this year or within the next few years. If there is a perceived, sustainable economic rebound before this happens, do not be fooled - the underlying economic problems still exist and will likely eventually surface in economic collapse.
This following analysis further explores this warning by describing:
1. The 4 key reasons an economic collapse is likely imminent
2. Why these 4 reasons make the economy vulnerable
3. Warning signs and triggers to monitor to foresee a collapse before it happens
4. What can result from an economic collapse
5. Ideas for preparation
The 4 Key Reasons an Economic Collapse is Likely Imminent
1. The U.S. has unprecedented, massive amounts of current and coming debt.
2. Foreign countries have experienced their own crises, and they cannot offer added levels of debt funding for the U.S. Even if they could, they are unlikely to do so.
3. Productivity is declining, and everything the government is doing is further hurting productivity.
4. The U.S. is printing unprecedented, massive amounts of money and no longer has an ability to control inflation and deflation.
1. The U.S. has unprecedented, massive amounts of current and coming debt.
1. Over $11.4 trillion in current debt and growing
2. $1.8 trillion deficit in current budget - $9.3 trillion over next decade (likely to be higher)
3. Outstanding future debt of $43 trillion to $102 trillion from entitlements
4. Debt Comparison to U.S. GDP
A. Over $11.4 trillion in current debt and growing
U.S. federal debt is now over $11.4 trillion. As this graph is slightly outdated, you can imagine how far off the graph the line will need to go to chart the increase.
B. $1.8 trillion deficit in current budget - $9.3 trillion over next decade (likely to be higher)
The $3.6 trillion budget most recently passed is estimated to incur a $1.8 trillion deficit. The deficit is estimated to add up to $9.3 trillion over next decade. These are estimates by the government, but they include economic assumptions that have already been exceeded.
For example, the budget assumes a max of 8.1% unemployment. We are now at 9.4% unemployment. This means the deficit will most likely be larger than projected.
Even with the current estimates, the deficit line on the outdated graph below will go far off the chart. Also, the federal debt discussed above (bullet "A") will increase over time by the amount of the deficit.
C. Outstanding future debt of $43 trillion to $102 trillion from entitlements
The U.S. has made long-term commitments to fund Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. Because of the increase in the retiring Baby Boomer population and the continuing increase in medical costs in the U.S., the demand on these payments is also increasing. Additionally, the U.S. government borrows from already-collected funds to undertake additional spending, adding to the entitlement funding problem.
The coming added debt estimates from entitlements are as low as $43 trillion and as high as $102 trillion. To put these debt levels in context, total U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is about $14.1 trillion and falling.
Graph from a 2008 U.S. Government Accountability Office report
As the above U.S. Government Accountability Office graph is outdated from 2008, here are a few important points to note:
1. The graphed values are based on the $43 trillion low-end estimate as of 2008. There are several other estimates all the way up to $102 trillion.
2. Since this graph was created, there are already significant increases required given the recently reported acceleration of the social security shortfall.
3. Increasing interest rates beyond 2008 projected levels are likely to add to the debt beyond what is stated here.
4. Likely slower GDP growth will increase the percentage of GDP stated here.
Healthcare reform is an attempt to ease the blow of the coming Medicare debt tsunami. While it is possible that this will have some medium-term effect on the debt outlay (to the detriment of healthcare quality, of course), on the contrary it is also quite possible that it will quickly add cost/debt, and regardless, the timing for these changes to take effect will have little impact for several years.
D. Debt Comparison to U.S. GDP
Below is a government-created graph of U.S. public debt (i.e. not including intragovernmental holdings, which bring the current debt total to $11.4 trillion) projections as a percent of GDP through the coming decades.
Graph from a 2008 U.S. Government Accountability Office report
As the above U.S. Government Accountability Office graph is outdated from 2008, here are a few important points to note:
1. We have already exceeded debt that is 50% of GDP and we are moving quickly past this level given our unexpectedly large current and projected budget deficits.
2. The data line must be shifted significantly to the left given the recently reported acceleration of the social security shortfall.
3. Increasing interest rates beyond 2008 projected levels are likely to add to the debt beyond what is stated here.
4. Likely slower GDP growth will increase the debt percentage of GDP stated here.
2. Foreign countries have experienced their own crises, and they cannot offer added levels of debt funding for the U.S. Even if they could, they are unlikely to do so.
The issuance of U.S. Treasury securities is how the government gets loans to fund its spending activity beyond what it collects in taxes. If you buy a Treasury, you are giving the government a loan, which it has to pay back to you with interest. About half of public-owned government debt is held by foreign creditors.
The 3 most significant U.S. debt holders are Europe (European Union and UK), Japan, and China. Japan and China make-up almost 50% of foreign held U.S. Treasurys at 21% and 24% respectively. It is unlikely that these lenders will continue funding U.S. debt to its requirements.
Largest Holders of U.S. Debt - U.S. Treasury (2009)
The 2 key reasons why the U.S. is losing support from its debt holders are:
1. Countries are experiencing their own crises and funding (and having trouble funding) their own stimulus
2. Countries do not like our currency devaluation as it hurts the value of the return on their U.S. Treasury investments.
Take a look at the recent status of the larges U.S. creditors:
Europe
Several EU countries and Russia are significant holders of U.S. debt. All of these countries have their hands full with economic problems in their own countries and with countries for which they are responsible within the EU. Take a look at the current landscape in Europe.
Countries in Europe that have recently collapsed or are on the brink of collapse:
- Iceland (collapsed) - Latvia (collapsed) - Russia (on brink) - Hungary (on brink) - Ukraine (on brink) - Additional Eastern Europe countries (on brink)
In recent time as Eastern European countries have attempted to emerge as viable economies they have become significant borrowers from Western Europe. As Eastern Europe feels pain, the banks and economies of Western Europe feel pain as well.
This following analysis further explores this warning by describing:
1. The 4 key reasons an economic collapse is likely imminent
2. Why these 4 reasons make the economy vulnerable
3. Warning signs and triggers to monitor to foresee a collapse before it happens
4. What can result from an economic collapse
5. Ideas for preparation
The 4 Key Reasons an Economic Collapse is Likely Imminent
1. The U.S. has unprecedented, massive amounts of current and coming debt.
2. Foreign countries have experienced their own crises, and they cannot offer added levels of debt funding for the U.S. Even if they could, they are unlikely to do so.
3. Productivity is declining, and everything the government is doing is further hurting productivity.
4. The U.S. is printing unprecedented, massive amounts of money and no longer has an ability to control inflation and deflation.
1. The U.S. has unprecedented, massive amounts of current and coming debt.
1. Over $11.4 trillion in current debt and growing
2. $1.8 trillion deficit in current budget - $9.3 trillion over next decade (likely to be higher)
3. Outstanding future debt of $43 trillion to $102 trillion from entitlements
4. Debt Comparison to U.S. GDP
A. Over $11.4 trillion in current debt and growing
U.S. federal debt is now over $11.4 trillion. As this graph is slightly outdated, you can imagine how far off the graph the line will need to go to chart the increase.
B. $1.8 trillion deficit in current budget - $9.3 trillion over next decade (likely to be higher)
The $3.6 trillion budget most recently passed is estimated to incur a $1.8 trillion deficit. The deficit is estimated to add up to $9.3 trillion over next decade. These are estimates by the government, but they include economic assumptions that have already been exceeded.
For example, the budget assumes a max of 8.1% unemployment. We are now at 9.4% unemployment. This means the deficit will most likely be larger than projected.
Even with the current estimates, the deficit line on the outdated graph below will go far off the chart. Also, the federal debt discussed above (bullet "A") will increase over time by the amount of the deficit.
C. Outstanding future debt of $43 trillion to $102 trillion from entitlements
The U.S. has made long-term commitments to fund Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. Because of the increase in the retiring Baby Boomer population and the continuing increase in medical costs in the U.S., the demand on these payments is also increasing. Additionally, the U.S. government borrows from already-collected funds to undertake additional spending, adding to the entitlement funding problem.
The coming added debt estimates from entitlements are as low as $43 trillion and as high as $102 trillion. To put these debt levels in context, total U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is about $14.1 trillion and falling.
Graph from a 2008 U.S. Government Accountability Office report
As the above U.S. Government Accountability Office graph is outdated from 2008, here are a few important points to note:
1. The graphed values are based on the $43 trillion low-end estimate as of 2008. There are several other estimates all the way up to $102 trillion.
2. Since this graph was created, there are already significant increases required given the recently reported acceleration of the social security shortfall.
3. Increasing interest rates beyond 2008 projected levels are likely to add to the debt beyond what is stated here.
4. Likely slower GDP growth will increase the percentage of GDP stated here.
Healthcare reform is an attempt to ease the blow of the coming Medicare debt tsunami. While it is possible that this will have some medium-term effect on the debt outlay (to the detriment of healthcare quality, of course), on the contrary it is also quite possible that it will quickly add cost/debt, and regardless, the timing for these changes to take effect will have little impact for several years.
D. Debt Comparison to U.S. GDP
Below is a government-created graph of U.S. public debt (i.e. not including intragovernmental holdings, which bring the current debt total to $11.4 trillion) projections as a percent of GDP through the coming decades.
Graph from a 2008 U.S. Government Accountability Office report
As the above U.S. Government Accountability Office graph is outdated from 2008, here are a few important points to note:
1. We have already exceeded debt that is 50% of GDP and we are moving quickly past this level given our unexpectedly large current and projected budget deficits.
2. The data line must be shifted significantly to the left given the recently reported acceleration of the social security shortfall.
3. Increasing interest rates beyond 2008 projected levels are likely to add to the debt beyond what is stated here.
4. Likely slower GDP growth will increase the debt percentage of GDP stated here.
2. Foreign countries have experienced their own crises, and they cannot offer added levels of debt funding for the U.S. Even if they could, they are unlikely to do so.
The issuance of U.S. Treasury securities is how the government gets loans to fund its spending activity beyond what it collects in taxes. If you buy a Treasury, you are giving the government a loan, which it has to pay back to you with interest. About half of public-owned government debt is held by foreign creditors.
The 3 most significant U.S. debt holders are Europe (European Union and UK), Japan, and China. Japan and China make-up almost 50% of foreign held U.S. Treasurys at 21% and 24% respectively. It is unlikely that these lenders will continue funding U.S. debt to its requirements.
Largest Holders of U.S. Debt - U.S. Treasury (2009)
The 2 key reasons why the U.S. is losing support from its debt holders are:
1. Countries are experiencing their own crises and funding (and having trouble funding) their own stimulus
2. Countries do not like our currency devaluation as it hurts the value of the return on their U.S. Treasury investments.
Take a look at the recent status of the larges U.S. creditors:
Europe
Several EU countries and Russia are significant holders of U.S. debt. All of these countries have their hands full with economic problems in their own countries and with countries for which they are responsible within the EU. Take a look at the current landscape in Europe.
Countries in Europe that have recently collapsed or are on the brink of collapse:
- Iceland (collapsed) - Latvia (collapsed) - Russia (on brink) - Hungary (on brink) - Ukraine (on brink) - Additional Eastern Europe countries (on brink)
In recent time as Eastern European countries have attempted to emerge as viable economies they have become significant borrowers from Western Europe. As Eastern Europe feels pain, the banks and economies of Western Europe feel pain as well.
Commodities Sector Timing Trading for Gold, Oil, Silver and Natural Gas
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Commodities
Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSector timing commodities - Being able to trade different sectors is crucial for making a living in today’s financial markets. One sector that cannot be over looked is the commodity sector.
Gold – GLD ETF Trading Chart.
Commodities
Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSector timing commodities - Being able to trade different sectors is crucial for making a living in today’s financial markets. One sector that cannot be over looked is the commodity sector.
Gold – GLD ETF Trading Chart.
2009 Top 40 Best Stocks To Retire On: Part 2
By Jae Jun on July 2, 2009
Bargain Growth aka Growth at a Reasonable Price (GARP: 0.00 N/A N/A)
Companies 11 through 20 are categorized as stalwarts or companies that can consistently create growth. This is the Peter Lynch style section of the portfolio.
Another Lynch precept is to invest only in companies with debt-to-equity ratios below 0.33. That requirement eliminated three of our 2008 holdings: 3M, McKesson, and Parker Hannifin all carry slightly too much debt. Meanwhile, two of our other stocks, Accenture and Microsoft, managed to generate more free cash flow last quarter, proving themselves to be what Lynch calls “stalwarts,” or consistent performers. They remain on our roster. - Fortune
Now let’s look at the next 10.
40 Best Retirement Stocks: No.11-20
1. Cisco Systems (CSCO)
2. Microsoft (MSFT)
3. Walgreen (WAG)
4. Gilead Sciences (GILD)
5. Mastercard (MA): Outside circle of competence
6. Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)
7. Baker Hughes Inc (BHI)
8. Becton Dickinson & Co (BDX)
9. Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)
10. Carlisle Companies (CSL)
Although I understand what Mastercard does I’m still uncertain about the valuation process and my abilities to get deeper into financials so I’ll let it be. If you look at the embedded spreadsheet at the bottom of the post, you’ll see that I didn’t highlight a single one out of this 10 because I don’t believe there are any bargains in this list as the categorization suggests.
BHI, BDX and MSFT were priced lower than my valuations but BHI is too inconsistent and unreliable to be included in any long term portfolio. BDX looks to be a good company but the margin of safety just isn’t there.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/17024416/Fortune40-Best-Stocks-to-Retire-on-Part2
Bargain Growth aka Growth at a Reasonable Price (GARP: 0.00 N/A N/A)
Companies 11 through 20 are categorized as stalwarts or companies that can consistently create growth. This is the Peter Lynch style section of the portfolio.
Another Lynch precept is to invest only in companies with debt-to-equity ratios below 0.33. That requirement eliminated three of our 2008 holdings: 3M, McKesson, and Parker Hannifin all carry slightly too much debt. Meanwhile, two of our other stocks, Accenture and Microsoft, managed to generate more free cash flow last quarter, proving themselves to be what Lynch calls “stalwarts,” or consistent performers. They remain on our roster. - Fortune
Now let’s look at the next 10.
40 Best Retirement Stocks: No.11-20
1. Cisco Systems (CSCO)
2. Microsoft (MSFT)
3. Walgreen (WAG)
4. Gilead Sciences (GILD)
5. Mastercard (MA): Outside circle of competence
6. Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)
7. Baker Hughes Inc (BHI)
8. Becton Dickinson & Co (BDX)
9. Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)
10. Carlisle Companies (CSL)
Although I understand what Mastercard does I’m still uncertain about the valuation process and my abilities to get deeper into financials so I’ll let it be. If you look at the embedded spreadsheet at the bottom of the post, you’ll see that I didn’t highlight a single one out of this 10 because I don’t believe there are any bargains in this list as the categorization suggests.
BHI, BDX and MSFT were priced lower than my valuations but BHI is too inconsistent and unreliable to be included in any long term portfolio. BDX looks to be a good company but the margin of safety just isn’t there.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/17024416/Fortune40-Best-Stocks-to-Retire-on-Part2
Daily Technical Analysis Forex/DJIA/Gold
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
Rupee : Rupee had broken the trendline of 48.10. and staying below it since last 2 sessions. Technically the pair has returned its bullish stance after staying below 48.10 for 2 closings. Exporters may start booking their contracts near 47.80 to 48.00 levels (PARTIALLY). Caution : Budget euphoria could also have lead to a stronger rupee temporarily. A break of 48.35 on the upside would negate the bullish bias again. We have not got a clear direction on dollar internationally since the euro , pound are still stuck up in the range since last 17 trading sessions. Once we get a confirmation of dollar weakness/strength internationally against all asset classes direction of the rupee would be very clearer. Mildly Bullish.(USD/INR : 48.10)
Gold :Gold was unable to hold above 943 dollars though went till 945 dollars yesterday again in the US session. Still holding bearishness below 943 (Gold- $929.00). Neutral to Bearish.
Dollar Index : Dollar index extends the rebound from 79.56 and is set to take on 80.94. We're anticipating a break of 80.94 resistance to signal resumption of rise from 78.33, to be confirmed by break of 81.36/47 resistance zone. Further rally should be seen to next key resistance at 82.62 (38.2% retracement of 89.62 to 78.93 at 82.64). in such case. (DI- 80.10) Slight Bullish to Neutral.
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank
EURUSD
Comment:Media getting excited as the Euro manages is strongest close in a month. We remind that a weekly close above 1.4200 is the absolute minimum needed to confirm an important upside break. Until then we shall have to allow for yet more random consolidation within the recent range. Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.4115, adding to 1.4000; stop below 1.3900. Short term target 1.4200, then 1.4300/1.4339.Direction of Trade: →Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.4100 " 1.4155
1.404 1.4178/1.4202*
1.4 1.423
1.398 1.4269
1.3800* 1.4339**
GBPUSD
Comment: Taking a back seat as other currencies come to the fore. A weekly close clearly above 1.6500 should add to current strong bullish momentum.Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6440; stop below 1.6175. First target 1.6550/1.6600. Direction of Trade: →
Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.6430 " 1.65
1.6368 1.6605
1.6275 1.6664
1.6209 1.6745*
1.6187* 1.68
USDJPY
Comment: Disappointing as we rally into a relatively large Ichimoku 'cloud' and above moving averages. Monthly and quarterly closes are not significant meaning we shall have to allow for more messy consolidation this week.Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 96.70; stop above 97.40. First target 96.00 then 95.00.Direction of Trade: →↘Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
96.17 " 96.58
95.95 97
95.5 97.27/97.37*
95.3 97.65
95 98
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 8460.00, 8428.24, 8402.80 and 8370.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8326.11, where correction also can be. Then follows 8280.23. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8247.22. Continuation will bring 8224.00 and 8185.78. Today's resistance: - 8538.70 and 8551.50(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8562.26, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8577.11, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8589.37. Continuation would bring 8611.87 and 8637.88.
Rupee : Rupee had broken the trendline of 48.10. and staying below it since last 2 sessions. Technically the pair has returned its bullish stance after staying below 48.10 for 2 closings. Exporters may start booking their contracts near 47.80 to 48.00 levels (PARTIALLY). Caution : Budget euphoria could also have lead to a stronger rupee temporarily. A break of 48.35 on the upside would negate the bullish bias again. We have not got a clear direction on dollar internationally since the euro , pound are still stuck up in the range since last 17 trading sessions. Once we get a confirmation of dollar weakness/strength internationally against all asset classes direction of the rupee would be very clearer. Mildly Bullish.(USD/INR : 48.10)
Gold :Gold was unable to hold above 943 dollars though went till 945 dollars yesterday again in the US session. Still holding bearishness below 943 (Gold- $929.00). Neutral to Bearish.
Dollar Index : Dollar index extends the rebound from 79.56 and is set to take on 80.94. We're anticipating a break of 80.94 resistance to signal resumption of rise from 78.33, to be confirmed by break of 81.36/47 resistance zone. Further rally should be seen to next key resistance at 82.62 (38.2% retracement of 89.62 to 78.93 at 82.64). in such case. (DI- 80.10) Slight Bullish to Neutral.
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank
EURUSD
Comment:Media getting excited as the Euro manages is strongest close in a month. We remind that a weekly close above 1.4200 is the absolute minimum needed to confirm an important upside break. Until then we shall have to allow for yet more random consolidation within the recent range. Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.4115, adding to 1.4000; stop below 1.3900. Short term target 1.4200, then 1.4300/1.4339.Direction of Trade: →Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.4100 " 1.4155
1.404 1.4178/1.4202*
1.4 1.423
1.398 1.4269
1.3800* 1.4339**
GBPUSD
Comment: Taking a back seat as other currencies come to the fore. A weekly close clearly above 1.6500 should add to current strong bullish momentum.Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6440; stop below 1.6175. First target 1.6550/1.6600. Direction of Trade: →
Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.6430 " 1.65
1.6368 1.6605
1.6275 1.6664
1.6209 1.6745*
1.6187* 1.68
USDJPY
Comment: Disappointing as we rally into a relatively large Ichimoku 'cloud' and above moving averages. Monthly and quarterly closes are not significant meaning we shall have to allow for more messy consolidation this week.Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 96.70; stop above 97.40. First target 96.00 then 95.00.Direction of Trade: →↘Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
96.17 " 96.58
95.95 97
95.5 97.27/97.37*
95.3 97.65
95 98
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 8460.00, 8428.24, 8402.80 and 8370.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8326.11, where correction also can be. Then follows 8280.23. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8247.22. Continuation will bring 8224.00 and 8185.78. Today's resistance: - 8538.70 and 8551.50(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8562.26, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8577.11, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8589.37. Continuation would bring 8611.87 and 8637.88.
Ketidakpastian Mengenai Kebijakan Mata Uang China Picu Risk Aversion
USD Index 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low EUR-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
79.70 89.62 (04/03) 78.59 (01/06) 1.4133 1.4337 (03/06) 1.2459 (04/03)
Dolar mengalami penguatan terhadap mata uang Eropa dan yen Jepang, setelah pejabat China mengatakan beliau “tidak menyadari” sebuah rencana untuk mendiskusikan mata uang untuk cadangan devisa baru pada pertemuan G8 di pekan depan. Dolar juga menguat terhadap 13 dari 16 mata uang yang paling aktif diperdagangkan setelah Wakil Menteri Luar Negeri He Yafei mengatakan dia berharap dolar akan stabil, meredam kekhawatiran dolar akan kehilangan status mata uang cadangan devisa. Dolar berhasil rebound dari pelemahan kemarin, setelah sejumlah data ekonomi global (PMI China, Retail Sales Australia, PMI Euro, CIPS PMI Inggris, ISM Manufacturing AS) tercatat lebih baik dari periode sebelumnya, meningkatkan daya tarik untuk saham dan komoditi, yang menurunkan yield obligasi AS berdampak negatif kepada dolar AS. Pasar akan menunggu hasil pertemuan ECB yang diperkirakan mempertahankan suku bunga 1.0%, data payroll AS diperkirakan dapat tercatat lebih lemah dari perkiraan setelah data ADP Employer tercatat -473K dari -392K. Kondisi tersebut dapat menguatkan dolar karena investor dapat melakukan risk aversion.
Euro melemah terhadap dolar dan yen, setelah pejabat China mengatakan tidak ada rencana untuk mendiskuksikan mata uang untuk cadangan devisa global yang baru pada petemuan G8 pekan depan. Euro sebelumnya kemarin karena kekhawatiran mengenai status mata uang cadangan devisa global masih tetap ada. Investor khawatir kebijakan China untuk mata uang internasional baru mungkin melemahkan pandangan dolar. Sementara, euro juga mendapatkan support dari positifnya data ekonomi euro. Data Purchasing Manager Index Euro direvisi naik di bulan Juni, menunjukkan pemulihan secara gradual di sektor manufacturing. Euro ditutup di 1.4147 terhadap dolar setelah mencapai level tertinggi 3-pekan di 1.42. Pada hari ini ECB diperkirakan akan mempertahankan suku bunga dan mempertahankan kebijakan moneter yang tidak konvensional. Bilamana President ECB Trichet menyatakan proses pemulihan ekonomi euro mencapai bottom di tahun ini dapat picu aksi pembelian euro di akhir pekan ini.
USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
96.65 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.6460 1.6661 (03/06) 1.3502 (23/01)
Yen melemah terhadap dolar di sesi Asia hari ini, karena pejabat China mengatakan tidak ada rencana untuk mendiskuksikan mata uang untuk cadangan devisa global yang baru pada petemuan G8 pekan depan. Penguatan yen mungkin terbatas setelah sebuah laporan pemerintah hari ini menunjukkan investor Jepang membeli surat hutang luar negeri terbesar dalam 4 tahun. Investor Jepang membeli 1.53 triliun yen (US$ 15.9 miliar) lebih banyak obligasi asing di pekan yang berakhir 27 Juni, level tertinggi sejak periode yang berakhir pada 24 Juni 2005. Yen juga berpeluang menguat semua 16 mata uang asing karena pada hari ini laporan tenaga kerja AS mungkin menunjukkan tingkat pengangguran meningkat ke level tertinggi sejak 1983, yang dapat memberikan pandangan resesi global akan berkepanjangan. Kemarin yen melemah terhadap dolar setelah China memperdebatkan proposal untuk mata uang cadangan devisa yang baru pada pertemuan puncak G8 pekan depan. Yen melemah 81 pips terhadap yen dari level intraday Y 96.99 sebelum ditutup di 96.54. pasar masih menunggu laporan payroll AS setelah data ADP Employer AS semalam tercatat dibawah perkiraan pasar, memicu spekulasi lemahnya payroll.
Pound sterling melemah terhadap dolar, setelah pernyataan pejabat China yang mengindikasikan tidak ada rencana untuk mendiskusikan mata uang untuk cadangan devisa baru pada pertemuan G8 pekan depan, diikuti aksi profit-taking menjelang rilisan data payroll AS hari ini yang diperkirakan dapat menunjukkan kontraksi lebih besar di bulan Juni, setelah data ADP Employer tercatat lebih besar dari perkiraan pasar, dimana dapat meredam spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi global. Sebelumnya pound juga sempat menguat setelah CIPS PMI Manufacturing Inggris bulan Juni tercatat 47.0 dari perkiraan 46.5, ikut memberikan support kepada pound. Minimnya data ekonomi dari Inggris hari ini mendorong investor akan mengamati data tenaga kerja AS dan pertemuan bank sentral Eropa yang akan diikuti testimony dari President ECB Trichet.
KIE 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
10,135 12,150 (02/03) 9,900 (05/06) 0.8051 0.8263 (03/06) 0.6248 (02/02)
Kontrak Indeks Emas (USD-IDR) di sesi Asia hari ini melemah ke 10,185, bekat positifnya data inflasi domestik bulan Juni yang tercatat 0.1% m/m, 3.65% y/y (perkiraan pasar 0.1-0.4% m/m, 3.5-4.0% y/y), dimana dapat memberikan petunjuk terhadap arah trend suku bunga Bank Indonesia pada hari Jumat. KIE sempat rebound dari level terendah Rp 10,150 setelah pernyataan pejabat China yang mengindikasikan tidak ada rencana untuk mendiskusikan mata uang untuk cadangan devisa global baru pada pertemuan G8 pekan depan. Perkiraan penurunan suku bunga BI pada pertemuan RDG besok sebesar 25 bsp menjadi 6.75%, dapat memberikan tekanan kepada KIE untuk target Rp 9800-10000, sebelum pilpres 8 Juli. Perkiraan range hingga besok siang: 10,100-10,250.
Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) melemah terhadap dolar dan yen setelah data defisit perdagangan Australia tercatat lebih tinggi dari prediksi ekonom, memberikan signal bank sentral mungkin mempertahankan suku bunga 49-tahun terendah untuk periode yang lebih lama. Kiwi juga melemah untuk hari ke-3 karena Fonterra Cooperative Gorup Selandia Baru, eksportir susu terbesar di dunia, mengatakan harga tepung bubuk susu anjlok ke level terendah 5-tahun.
Technical Analysis
(+140p+50+100p closed sell 1.4200). Trend bullish jangka pendek EURUSD masih aman karena berada dalam triangle selama mempertahankan support channel di 1.4003, didukung indikator MACD bullish, Stochastic crossing up, ADX terkoreksi turun, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan laju kenaikan terbatas hari ini. Di chart 4 jam menunjukkan pola bull flag. Pola H&S dengan neckline di 1.3757, jika tembus dapat picu penurunan ke target 1.3419. Hitungan Elliot wave euro dolar dalam proses wave c dalam wave minor ii - sub wave intermediate 4. Support di 1.4002 (support channel))/1.3890 (lower low). Resistance di 1.4231 (upper channel)/1.4267 (100.0 FR). Buy 1.4010 target di 1.4150 stop 60p, buy 1.3900 target 1.4150 stop 60p, sell 1.4200 & 1.4260 target 1.3900 stop 100p. Sell break 1.3800 target 1.3600 stop 50p.
USDJPY masih berada dalam descending triangle, dimana candle daily menunjukkan pola shooting star, didukung oleh indikator ADX menurun dan MACD bearish, stochastic crossing di teritorial oversold, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas hari ini. Support berada di 95.90/95.29 (trendline). Trend dapat bebalk bullish jika menembus trendline resistance di 97.81. Resistance berada di 97.81 (trendline)/98.80 (projeksi 61.8 FE). Buy 95.30 target 97.10 stop 60p, sell 97.60 target 96.00 stop diatas 97.80, sell break 95.90 target 95.30 stop 50p. buy 94.20 target 97.50 stop di 94.00.
Trend GBPUSD berbalik netral setelah GBP gagal ditutup diatas 76.4 fibonacci retracement di 1.6518 diikuti pola candle shooting star yang merupakan indikasi bearish reversal. Indikator ADX menunjukkan penurunan, mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas hari ini. Penutupan harian diatas di 1.6536 dapat mendorong GBP ke target 1.6721/1.6768. support berada di 1.6270/1.6192, jika ditutup dibawah level ini, dapat mendorong trend menjadi bearish target 1.58-1.60 kembali. Analisa EW menunjukkan proses zig zag wave c / iii minutte dalam koreksi intemediate 4. Sell 1.6650 & 1.6710 target 1.6400 stop 60p. Buy 1.6270 & 1.6340 target 1.6600 stop 60p. Sell break 1.6200 target 1.6050 stop 60p. Buy break 1.6550 target 1.6700 stop 60p.
(hold buy 0.8030 target 0.8150 stop 100p). AUD-USD mulai mendapatkan signal positif dari pola uptrend channel dan masih bertahan diatas lower channel di 0.8031, didukung oleh stochastic crossing up, MACD bullish dan ADX menunjukkan penurunan, yang seharusnya mendukung perkiraan potensi penurunan terbatas hari ini. Meksi terlihat sulit mencapai diatas 0.8151 (61.8 FE)/0.8193 (resistance channel). Elliot wave menunjukkan proses wave zig zag d dalam wave intermediate 3. Buy 0.7950 target 0.8100 stop 100p, buy 0.7780 target 0.8100 stop 60p. sell 0.8150 target 0.7800 stop 50p. Buy break 0.8210 target 0.8450. Buy 0.7880 target 0.8150 stop 60p.
79.70 89.62 (04/03) 78.59 (01/06) 1.4133 1.4337 (03/06) 1.2459 (04/03)
Dolar mengalami penguatan terhadap mata uang Eropa dan yen Jepang, setelah pejabat China mengatakan beliau “tidak menyadari” sebuah rencana untuk mendiskusikan mata uang untuk cadangan devisa baru pada pertemuan G8 di pekan depan. Dolar juga menguat terhadap 13 dari 16 mata uang yang paling aktif diperdagangkan setelah Wakil Menteri Luar Negeri He Yafei mengatakan dia berharap dolar akan stabil, meredam kekhawatiran dolar akan kehilangan status mata uang cadangan devisa. Dolar berhasil rebound dari pelemahan kemarin, setelah sejumlah data ekonomi global (PMI China, Retail Sales Australia, PMI Euro, CIPS PMI Inggris, ISM Manufacturing AS) tercatat lebih baik dari periode sebelumnya, meningkatkan daya tarik untuk saham dan komoditi, yang menurunkan yield obligasi AS berdampak negatif kepada dolar AS. Pasar akan menunggu hasil pertemuan ECB yang diperkirakan mempertahankan suku bunga 1.0%, data payroll AS diperkirakan dapat tercatat lebih lemah dari perkiraan setelah data ADP Employer tercatat -473K dari -392K. Kondisi tersebut dapat menguatkan dolar karena investor dapat melakukan risk aversion.
Euro melemah terhadap dolar dan yen, setelah pejabat China mengatakan tidak ada rencana untuk mendiskuksikan mata uang untuk cadangan devisa global yang baru pada petemuan G8 pekan depan. Euro sebelumnya kemarin karena kekhawatiran mengenai status mata uang cadangan devisa global masih tetap ada. Investor khawatir kebijakan China untuk mata uang internasional baru mungkin melemahkan pandangan dolar. Sementara, euro juga mendapatkan support dari positifnya data ekonomi euro. Data Purchasing Manager Index Euro direvisi naik di bulan Juni, menunjukkan pemulihan secara gradual di sektor manufacturing. Euro ditutup di 1.4147 terhadap dolar setelah mencapai level tertinggi 3-pekan di 1.42. Pada hari ini ECB diperkirakan akan mempertahankan suku bunga dan mempertahankan kebijakan moneter yang tidak konvensional. Bilamana President ECB Trichet menyatakan proses pemulihan ekonomi euro mencapai bottom di tahun ini dapat picu aksi pembelian euro di akhir pekan ini.
USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
96.65 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.6460 1.6661 (03/06) 1.3502 (23/01)
Yen melemah terhadap dolar di sesi Asia hari ini, karena pejabat China mengatakan tidak ada rencana untuk mendiskuksikan mata uang untuk cadangan devisa global yang baru pada petemuan G8 pekan depan. Penguatan yen mungkin terbatas setelah sebuah laporan pemerintah hari ini menunjukkan investor Jepang membeli surat hutang luar negeri terbesar dalam 4 tahun. Investor Jepang membeli 1.53 triliun yen (US$ 15.9 miliar) lebih banyak obligasi asing di pekan yang berakhir 27 Juni, level tertinggi sejak periode yang berakhir pada 24 Juni 2005. Yen juga berpeluang menguat semua 16 mata uang asing karena pada hari ini laporan tenaga kerja AS mungkin menunjukkan tingkat pengangguran meningkat ke level tertinggi sejak 1983, yang dapat memberikan pandangan resesi global akan berkepanjangan. Kemarin yen melemah terhadap dolar setelah China memperdebatkan proposal untuk mata uang cadangan devisa yang baru pada pertemuan puncak G8 pekan depan. Yen melemah 81 pips terhadap yen dari level intraday Y 96.99 sebelum ditutup di 96.54. pasar masih menunggu laporan payroll AS setelah data ADP Employer AS semalam tercatat dibawah perkiraan pasar, memicu spekulasi lemahnya payroll.
Pound sterling melemah terhadap dolar, setelah pernyataan pejabat China yang mengindikasikan tidak ada rencana untuk mendiskusikan mata uang untuk cadangan devisa baru pada pertemuan G8 pekan depan, diikuti aksi profit-taking menjelang rilisan data payroll AS hari ini yang diperkirakan dapat menunjukkan kontraksi lebih besar di bulan Juni, setelah data ADP Employer tercatat lebih besar dari perkiraan pasar, dimana dapat meredam spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi global. Sebelumnya pound juga sempat menguat setelah CIPS PMI Manufacturing Inggris bulan Juni tercatat 47.0 dari perkiraan 46.5, ikut memberikan support kepada pound. Minimnya data ekonomi dari Inggris hari ini mendorong investor akan mengamati data tenaga kerja AS dan pertemuan bank sentral Eropa yang akan diikuti testimony dari President ECB Trichet.
KIE 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
10,135 12,150 (02/03) 9,900 (05/06) 0.8051 0.8263 (03/06) 0.6248 (02/02)
Kontrak Indeks Emas (USD-IDR) di sesi Asia hari ini melemah ke 10,185, bekat positifnya data inflasi domestik bulan Juni yang tercatat 0.1% m/m, 3.65% y/y (perkiraan pasar 0.1-0.4% m/m, 3.5-4.0% y/y), dimana dapat memberikan petunjuk terhadap arah trend suku bunga Bank Indonesia pada hari Jumat. KIE sempat rebound dari level terendah Rp 10,150 setelah pernyataan pejabat China yang mengindikasikan tidak ada rencana untuk mendiskusikan mata uang untuk cadangan devisa global baru pada pertemuan G8 pekan depan. Perkiraan penurunan suku bunga BI pada pertemuan RDG besok sebesar 25 bsp menjadi 6.75%, dapat memberikan tekanan kepada KIE untuk target Rp 9800-10000, sebelum pilpres 8 Juli. Perkiraan range hingga besok siang: 10,100-10,250.
Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) melemah terhadap dolar dan yen setelah data defisit perdagangan Australia tercatat lebih tinggi dari prediksi ekonom, memberikan signal bank sentral mungkin mempertahankan suku bunga 49-tahun terendah untuk periode yang lebih lama. Kiwi juga melemah untuk hari ke-3 karena Fonterra Cooperative Gorup Selandia Baru, eksportir susu terbesar di dunia, mengatakan harga tepung bubuk susu anjlok ke level terendah 5-tahun.
Technical Analysis
(+140p+50+100p closed sell 1.4200). Trend bullish jangka pendek EURUSD masih aman karena berada dalam triangle selama mempertahankan support channel di 1.4003, didukung indikator MACD bullish, Stochastic crossing up, ADX terkoreksi turun, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan laju kenaikan terbatas hari ini. Di chart 4 jam menunjukkan pola bull flag. Pola H&S dengan neckline di 1.3757, jika tembus dapat picu penurunan ke target 1.3419. Hitungan Elliot wave euro dolar dalam proses wave c dalam wave minor ii - sub wave intermediate 4. Support di 1.4002 (support channel))/1.3890 (lower low). Resistance di 1.4231 (upper channel)/1.4267 (100.0 FR). Buy 1.4010 target di 1.4150 stop 60p, buy 1.3900 target 1.4150 stop 60p, sell 1.4200 & 1.4260 target 1.3900 stop 100p. Sell break 1.3800 target 1.3600 stop 50p.
USDJPY masih berada dalam descending triangle, dimana candle daily menunjukkan pola shooting star, didukung oleh indikator ADX menurun dan MACD bearish, stochastic crossing di teritorial oversold, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas hari ini. Support berada di 95.90/95.29 (trendline). Trend dapat bebalk bullish jika menembus trendline resistance di 97.81. Resistance berada di 97.81 (trendline)/98.80 (projeksi 61.8 FE). Buy 95.30 target 97.10 stop 60p, sell 97.60 target 96.00 stop diatas 97.80, sell break 95.90 target 95.30 stop 50p. buy 94.20 target 97.50 stop di 94.00.
Trend GBPUSD berbalik netral setelah GBP gagal ditutup diatas 76.4 fibonacci retracement di 1.6518 diikuti pola candle shooting star yang merupakan indikasi bearish reversal. Indikator ADX menunjukkan penurunan, mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas hari ini. Penutupan harian diatas di 1.6536 dapat mendorong GBP ke target 1.6721/1.6768. support berada di 1.6270/1.6192, jika ditutup dibawah level ini, dapat mendorong trend menjadi bearish target 1.58-1.60 kembali. Analisa EW menunjukkan proses zig zag wave c / iii minutte dalam koreksi intemediate 4. Sell 1.6650 & 1.6710 target 1.6400 stop 60p. Buy 1.6270 & 1.6340 target 1.6600 stop 60p. Sell break 1.6200 target 1.6050 stop 60p. Buy break 1.6550 target 1.6700 stop 60p.
(hold buy 0.8030 target 0.8150 stop 100p). AUD-USD mulai mendapatkan signal positif dari pola uptrend channel dan masih bertahan diatas lower channel di 0.8031, didukung oleh stochastic crossing up, MACD bullish dan ADX menunjukkan penurunan, yang seharusnya mendukung perkiraan potensi penurunan terbatas hari ini. Meksi terlihat sulit mencapai diatas 0.8151 (61.8 FE)/0.8193 (resistance channel). Elliot wave menunjukkan proses wave zig zag d dalam wave intermediate 3. Buy 0.7950 target 0.8100 stop 100p, buy 0.7780 target 0.8100 stop 60p. sell 0.8150 target 0.7800 stop 50p. Buy break 0.8210 target 0.8450. Buy 0.7880 target 0.8150 stop 60p.
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
Sentimen Positif dan Teknikal (Bullish Continuation) Masih Menopang Kinerja IHSG
Market Review
Rendahnya inflasi domestik (0.11% m/m, 3.65% y/y) kemarin, mendorong perkiraan Bank Indonesia akan menurunkan suku bunga sedikitnya 25 bsp menjadi 6.50%-6.75% pada hari Jumat mendatang, membantu IHSG ditutup menguat. Saham infrastruktur (TLKM, ISAT), perbankan (BMRI, BBRI, BBCA), konsumsi dan semen (UNVR, SMGR) mendapatkan keuntungan dari data inflasi dan penguatan rupiah (penutupan Rp 10,180/US$ kemarin), memperkuat momentum kenaikan IHSG yang menunjukkan volume yang lesu dalam 3 hari perdagangan terakhir. Indeks menguat 33.104 poin (1.633%), ditutup di 2,059.844, nilai transaksi tercatat Rp 5.95 triliun (Rp 3.5 triliun: transaksi tutup sendiri BBCA). Investor asing membukukan net buy sebesar Rp 79.456 miliar, dibanding net buy Rp 34.783 miliar hari Senin (29/06).
Mayoritas indeks saham di Asia-Pasifik ditutup menguat, kecuali indeks saham Nikkei 225 Jepang yang mengalami penurunan, karena meningkatnya optimisme terhadap pemulihan ekonomi regional Asia Pasifik setelah data PMI China bulan Juni meningkat ke 53.2, Retail Sales Australia meningkat 1.0% , sentimen Tankan BOJ Jepang membaik di kuartal kedua, mendorong penguatan indeks saham regional.
IHSG Outlook
IHSG mendapatkan berkah dari munculnya kembali sejumlah sentimen positif dari dalam dan luar negeri yang didukung oleh kondisi teknikal yang uptrend, dimana positifnya data inflasi domestik bulan Juni (0.11% m/m, 3.65% y/y) dapat mendorong BI turunkan suku bunga acuan sebesar 25-50 bsp pada pertemuan RDG hari Jumat, nilai ekspor Indonesia naik 9.52% menjadi US$ 9.26 miliar (meski akumulatif Januari-Mei, turun 29.4% menjadi US$ 40.74 miliar y/y), laporan Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) bahwa jumlah orang miskin di bulan Maret 2009 turun 2.43 juta jiwa menjadi 31.53 juta jiwa, penguatan rupiah lebih lanjut terhadap dolar AS (target Rp 9,800/10,000 menjelang Pilpres 8 Juli) dan masih kuatnya inflow ke pasar modal dari penyesuaian portofolio fund manager asing di awal semester 2, seharusnya masih menopang kinerja IHSG pada akhir pekan ini. Sementara faktor positif dari luar negeri ikut membantu momentum kenaikan IHSG, dimana data ekonomi global (PMI China, Retail Sales Australia, PMI Euro, CIPS PMI Inggris, ISM Manufacturing AS) tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan ekonom, seharusnya positif untuk IHSG dan indeks saham regional, kendati laju kenaikan terbatas menjelang pertemuan bank sentral Eropa (perkiraan tidak berubah 1.0%) dan data payroll AS hari ini.
Hold (30/06: Return>10%; risk <10%): BUMI/BNBR/ENRG/ELTY, ASIII,KIJA*,HEXA*,BBRI*,BMRI*,BBNI*,ANTM,INCO*,INTP.MNCN**/BMTR**
* Menguat sejak 30/06. ** Target tercapai.
Stock Picks:
* ADHI Hold Buy Target 650
* DGIK Buy target Rp 180
Global Outlook
Kembalinya risk appetite mendorong investor kembali memburu aset yang beresiko dan dapat menghasilkan yield yang lebih tinggi seperti saham dan obligasi, karena meningkatnya bukti pemulihan ekonomi global dari lebih baik dari perkiraan data ekonomi global (PMI China 53.2, Retail Sales Australia +1.0, Tankan Jepang -48, PMI Euro 42.6, CIPS PMI Inggris 47.0, ISM Manufacturing AS 44.8) meningkatkan daya tarik untuk saham dan komoditi (meski inventory minyak AS anjlok untuk pekan ke-3). Sementara laju penguatan indeks saham global dapat tertahan hari ini, karena rilisan data ADP Employer AS (tercatat -473K dari perkiraan -392K) dapat mendorong data payroll akan tercatat lebih buruk dari perkiraan pasar -355K dan unemployment akan meningkat dari perkiraan 9.6%, dapat mendorong kembali risk aversion (meredanya optimisme terhadap pemulihan ekonomi global) dan profit-taking saham global menjelang liburan akhir pekan di AS (Bank holiday 03 Juli; Independence Day 4 Juli).
Technical Analysis:
Signal positif dari golden cross 5-day MA (2,039) & 10-day MA (2,003), didukung pola candle bullish mat hold (bullish continuation) mengurangi tekanan bearish di tengah trend penurunan volume, diikuti indikator ADX masih flat, stochastic crossing up bullish, MACD weak bullish, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan bahwa potensi kenaikan IHSG terbatas hari ini. Jika IHSG gagal ditutup diatas trendline 2,056, IHSG dapat terkoreksi dan menunjukkanpotensi reversal. Sementara Hitungan Elliot Wave: indeks berada dalam wave b / ii selama tidak melewati 2,060/2,116 (high 10/06) dalam wave minor dalam 4 intermediate (4) / (B), konfirmasi target 2,172 (61.8 FR)/2,408 (76.4% FR) untuk periode 3 bulan.
Resistance: 2119.96/2101.94/2083.91/2071.90. PP 2047.87
Support : 2041.86/2023.84/2011.83/1993.81
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2,020 - 2,100)
Rendahnya inflasi domestik (0.11% m/m, 3.65% y/y) kemarin, mendorong perkiraan Bank Indonesia akan menurunkan suku bunga sedikitnya 25 bsp menjadi 6.50%-6.75% pada hari Jumat mendatang, membantu IHSG ditutup menguat. Saham infrastruktur (TLKM, ISAT), perbankan (BMRI, BBRI, BBCA), konsumsi dan semen (UNVR, SMGR) mendapatkan keuntungan dari data inflasi dan penguatan rupiah (penutupan Rp 10,180/US$ kemarin), memperkuat momentum kenaikan IHSG yang menunjukkan volume yang lesu dalam 3 hari perdagangan terakhir. Indeks menguat 33.104 poin (1.633%), ditutup di 2,059.844, nilai transaksi tercatat Rp 5.95 triliun (Rp 3.5 triliun: transaksi tutup sendiri BBCA). Investor asing membukukan net buy sebesar Rp 79.456 miliar, dibanding net buy Rp 34.783 miliar hari Senin (29/06).
Mayoritas indeks saham di Asia-Pasifik ditutup menguat, kecuali indeks saham Nikkei 225 Jepang yang mengalami penurunan, karena meningkatnya optimisme terhadap pemulihan ekonomi regional Asia Pasifik setelah data PMI China bulan Juni meningkat ke 53.2, Retail Sales Australia meningkat 1.0% , sentimen Tankan BOJ Jepang membaik di kuartal kedua, mendorong penguatan indeks saham regional.
IHSG Outlook
IHSG mendapatkan berkah dari munculnya kembali sejumlah sentimen positif dari dalam dan luar negeri yang didukung oleh kondisi teknikal yang uptrend, dimana positifnya data inflasi domestik bulan Juni (0.11% m/m, 3.65% y/y) dapat mendorong BI turunkan suku bunga acuan sebesar 25-50 bsp pada pertemuan RDG hari Jumat, nilai ekspor Indonesia naik 9.52% menjadi US$ 9.26 miliar (meski akumulatif Januari-Mei, turun 29.4% menjadi US$ 40.74 miliar y/y), laporan Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) bahwa jumlah orang miskin di bulan Maret 2009 turun 2.43 juta jiwa menjadi 31.53 juta jiwa, penguatan rupiah lebih lanjut terhadap dolar AS (target Rp 9,800/10,000 menjelang Pilpres 8 Juli) dan masih kuatnya inflow ke pasar modal dari penyesuaian portofolio fund manager asing di awal semester 2, seharusnya masih menopang kinerja IHSG pada akhir pekan ini. Sementara faktor positif dari luar negeri ikut membantu momentum kenaikan IHSG, dimana data ekonomi global (PMI China, Retail Sales Australia, PMI Euro, CIPS PMI Inggris, ISM Manufacturing AS) tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan ekonom, seharusnya positif untuk IHSG dan indeks saham regional, kendati laju kenaikan terbatas menjelang pertemuan bank sentral Eropa (perkiraan tidak berubah 1.0%) dan data payroll AS hari ini.
Hold (30/06: Return>10%; risk <10%): BUMI/BNBR/ENRG/ELTY, ASIII,KIJA*,HEXA*,BBRI*,BMRI*,BBNI*,ANTM,INCO*,INTP.MNCN**/BMTR**
* Menguat sejak 30/06. ** Target tercapai.
Stock Picks:
* ADHI Hold Buy Target 650
* DGIK Buy target Rp 180
Global Outlook
Kembalinya risk appetite mendorong investor kembali memburu aset yang beresiko dan dapat menghasilkan yield yang lebih tinggi seperti saham dan obligasi, karena meningkatnya bukti pemulihan ekonomi global dari lebih baik dari perkiraan data ekonomi global (PMI China 53.2, Retail Sales Australia +1.0, Tankan Jepang -48, PMI Euro 42.6, CIPS PMI Inggris 47.0, ISM Manufacturing AS 44.8) meningkatkan daya tarik untuk saham dan komoditi (meski inventory minyak AS anjlok untuk pekan ke-3). Sementara laju penguatan indeks saham global dapat tertahan hari ini, karena rilisan data ADP Employer AS (tercatat -473K dari perkiraan -392K) dapat mendorong data payroll akan tercatat lebih buruk dari perkiraan pasar -355K dan unemployment akan meningkat dari perkiraan 9.6%, dapat mendorong kembali risk aversion (meredanya optimisme terhadap pemulihan ekonomi global) dan profit-taking saham global menjelang liburan akhir pekan di AS (Bank holiday 03 Juli; Independence Day 4 Juli).
Technical Analysis:
Signal positif dari golden cross 5-day MA (2,039) & 10-day MA (2,003), didukung pola candle bullish mat hold (bullish continuation) mengurangi tekanan bearish di tengah trend penurunan volume, diikuti indikator ADX masih flat, stochastic crossing up bullish, MACD weak bullish, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan bahwa potensi kenaikan IHSG terbatas hari ini. Jika IHSG gagal ditutup diatas trendline 2,056, IHSG dapat terkoreksi dan menunjukkanpotensi reversal. Sementara Hitungan Elliot Wave: indeks berada dalam wave b / ii selama tidak melewati 2,060/2,116 (high 10/06) dalam wave minor dalam 4 intermediate (4) / (B), konfirmasi target 2,172 (61.8 FR)/2,408 (76.4% FR) untuk periode 3 bulan.
Resistance: 2119.96/2101.94/2083.91/2071.90. PP 2047.87
Support : 2041.86/2023.84/2011.83/1993.81
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2,020 - 2,100)
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Wed Jul 01 09 07:24 ET
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's break of 927.6 support suggests that rebound from 938.1 has completed. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside and retest of 913.2 low should be seen. Break will confirm that whole fall from 992.1 has resumed and should target 900 psychological support next. On the upside, above 946.6 will indicate that recovery from 913.2 is still in progress indeed and might extend further to 61.8% retracement of 992.1 to 913.2 at 962 before completion.
In the bigger picture, recent development shifts favor back to the case that fall from 992.1 is the third leg of the consolidation from 1007.7, which is not completed. Break of 913.9 fibo support will target a test of 865 support before completing the whole consolidation. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) and bring resumption of rise from 681. On the upside, though, above 992.1 will revive the case that rise from 865 is resumption of up trend rather than part of sideway consolidation. In such case, retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance should be seen next.
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's break of 927.6 support suggests that rebound from 938.1 has completed. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside and retest of 913.2 low should be seen. Break will confirm that whole fall from 992.1 has resumed and should target 900 psychological support next. On the upside, above 946.6 will indicate that recovery from 913.2 is still in progress indeed and might extend further to 61.8% retracement of 992.1 to 913.2 at 962 before completion.
In the bigger picture, recent development shifts favor back to the case that fall from 992.1 is the third leg of the consolidation from 1007.7, which is not completed. Break of 913.9 fibo support will target a test of 865 support before completing the whole consolidation. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) and bring resumption of rise from 681. On the upside, though, above 992.1 will revive the case that rise from 865 is resumption of up trend rather than part of sideway consolidation. In such case, retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance should be seen next.
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Oil Price Slips Despite Huge Withdrawal in Crude Inventory, Refinery Products Are Oversupplied. Crude oil inventory declined -3.66 mmb, more than market expectation of -2 mmb, to 350.2 mmb in the week ended June 26. Cushing stocks gained slightly after falling for 4 consecutive weeks.
Written by Oil N' Gold | Wed Jul 01 09 07:23 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil failed to sustain above 73.23 high and retreated sharply again. With 4 hours MACD dragged below signal line, intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. Nevertheless, another rise is still in favor as long as 68.45 support holds, and break of 73.23 will bring rally resumption, targeting 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next. However, a break below 68.45 will open up a few short term bearish case that should at least bring a retest of 66.25 support.
In the bigger picture, rise from 33.20 is still in progress and there is no confirmation that it's completed yet. Though, note that daily MACD's break of its up trend line provides a signal that such up trend is near to the end. Hence, we'd continue to monitor loss of up side momentum as crude oil approaches 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. On the downside, break of 66.25 support will be an important indication that crude oil has topped out and will turn focus to 45.44/54.66 support zone for confirmation.
Written by Oil N' Gold | Wed Jul 01 09 07:23 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil failed to sustain above 73.23 high and retreated sharply again. With 4 hours MACD dragged below signal line, intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. Nevertheless, another rise is still in favor as long as 68.45 support holds, and break of 73.23 will bring rally resumption, targeting 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next. However, a break below 68.45 will open up a few short term bearish case that should at least bring a retest of 66.25 support.
In the bigger picture, rise from 33.20 is still in progress and there is no confirmation that it's completed yet. Though, note that daily MACD's break of its up trend line provides a signal that such up trend is near to the end. Hence, we'd continue to monitor loss of up side momentum as crude oil approaches 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. On the downside, break of 66.25 support will be an important indication that crude oil has topped out and will turn focus to 45.44/54.66 support zone for confirmation.
Momentum Kenaikan Indeks Regional Terbatas Menjelang Payroll AS
SSIU9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
9850 9805 9965 9705 10080 9920 10180 9605 9730 9835 10065 10190 10295
Commentary
Di chart 4 jam, trend jangka pendek indeks SSIU9 masih menunjukkan trend bullish karena indeks masih berada dalam pola uptrend channel, setelah indeks gagal ditutup diatas resistance di 9,921 (38.2 FR 10180-9500), dimana dapat mengarahkan indeks ke target support di 9760 (61.8 FR)/9661 (76.4 FR). Indikator teknikal ADX menunjukkan penurunan, stochastic overbought, dan MACD berada dalam teritorial positif, dan indeks masih berada dalam uptrend channel, seharusnya dapat membatasi potensi kenaikan hari ini. Penutupan indeks diatas 9921, dapat mendukung kelanjutan momentum kenaikan indeks. Perkiraan range hari ini pada kisaran 9750-10000.
Rekomendasi : Buy 9750 target 10000 stop 100p, sell 10050 target 9800 stop 100p, buy 9660 target 9,500 stop 100p. (+80p)
KSU9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
182.40 178.1 180.45 177.1 182.0 179.1 183.0 174.2 176.0 179.2 184.2 186.0 189.2
Commentary
Dalam chart 4-jam, indeks KSU9 berada dalam pola congestion di kisaran range 184.15-172.60, didukung oleh Indikator teknikal MACD netral dan stochastic crossing up, ADX terkoreksi turun, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi technical rebound hari ini terbatas. Potensi kenaikan indeks terbatas gagal ditutup diatas level 180.16 (23.6 FR). Ditutup diatas level tersebut target 184.10 (double top di chart 4 jam). Tetapi jika indeks ditutup dibawah support line di 172.15, trend akan berbalik bearish, target 170.11 (50.0 FR)/166.80 (61.8 FR). Perkiraan range hari ini: 178.00-184.00
Rekomendasi :Buy 177.70 target 178.00 stop 60p, sell 183 & 184 target 178.00 stop 100p. sell 178.00 target 176.00. Sell break 172.50 target 170.00 stop 100p. buy 175.80 target 178.50 stop 100p.
HSIN9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
18420 18438 18750 18338 18906 18594 19006 17600 17987 18182 18764 19151 19346
Commentary
Dalam chart 4 jam, indeks menunjukkan pola uptrend channel dan menunjukkan trend masih bullish jangka pendek setelah ditutup diatas 18,403 (23.6% FR). Indikator teknikal ADX meningkat dan stochastic crossing up, meski MACD masih berada di teritorial positif, menunjukkan potensi technical rebound lebih lanjut. Daily candle menunjukkan twezeer top, seharusnya mendukung laju kenaikan hari ini masih tetap kuat. Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks masih berada dalam wave c / (ii) dalam subwave motive (3) telah berakhir di di 19,100 dalam cycle B. Perkiraan range hari ini : 18.200-18.800
Rekomendasi : Buy break 1620 & 18710 target 18900 (or closing) stop 50 p. sell break 18340 target 18000 stop 100 poin. buy 17990 target 18400 stop 100p. Buy 17810 target 18200 stop 50p, Sell 18900 target 18400 stop 100p. (+150p)
9850 9805 9965 9705 10080 9920 10180 9605 9730 9835 10065 10190 10295
Commentary
Di chart 4 jam, trend jangka pendek indeks SSIU9 masih menunjukkan trend bullish karena indeks masih berada dalam pola uptrend channel, setelah indeks gagal ditutup diatas resistance di 9,921 (38.2 FR 10180-9500), dimana dapat mengarahkan indeks ke target support di 9760 (61.8 FR)/9661 (76.4 FR). Indikator teknikal ADX menunjukkan penurunan, stochastic overbought, dan MACD berada dalam teritorial positif, dan indeks masih berada dalam uptrend channel, seharusnya dapat membatasi potensi kenaikan hari ini. Penutupan indeks diatas 9921, dapat mendukung kelanjutan momentum kenaikan indeks. Perkiraan range hari ini pada kisaran 9750-10000.
Rekomendasi : Buy 9750 target 10000 stop 100p, sell 10050 target 9800 stop 100p, buy 9660 target 9,500 stop 100p. (+80p)
KSU9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
182.40 178.1 180.45 177.1 182.0 179.1 183.0 174.2 176.0 179.2 184.2 186.0 189.2
Commentary
Dalam chart 4-jam, indeks KSU9 berada dalam pola congestion di kisaran range 184.15-172.60, didukung oleh Indikator teknikal MACD netral dan stochastic crossing up, ADX terkoreksi turun, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi technical rebound hari ini terbatas. Potensi kenaikan indeks terbatas gagal ditutup diatas level 180.16 (23.6 FR). Ditutup diatas level tersebut target 184.10 (double top di chart 4 jam). Tetapi jika indeks ditutup dibawah support line di 172.15, trend akan berbalik bearish, target 170.11 (50.0 FR)/166.80 (61.8 FR). Perkiraan range hari ini: 178.00-184.00
Rekomendasi :Buy 177.70 target 178.00 stop 60p, sell 183 & 184 target 178.00 stop 100p. sell 178.00 target 176.00. Sell break 172.50 target 170.00 stop 100p. buy 175.80 target 178.50 stop 100p.
HSIN9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
18420 18438 18750 18338 18906 18594 19006 17600 17987 18182 18764 19151 19346
Commentary
Dalam chart 4 jam, indeks menunjukkan pola uptrend channel dan menunjukkan trend masih bullish jangka pendek setelah ditutup diatas 18,403 (23.6% FR). Indikator teknikal ADX meningkat dan stochastic crossing up, meski MACD masih berada di teritorial positif, menunjukkan potensi technical rebound lebih lanjut. Daily candle menunjukkan twezeer top, seharusnya mendukung laju kenaikan hari ini masih tetap kuat. Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks masih berada dalam wave c / (ii) dalam subwave motive (3) telah berakhir di di 19,100 dalam cycle B. Perkiraan range hari ini : 18.200-18.800
Rekomendasi : Buy break 1620 & 18710 target 18900 (or closing) stop 50 p. sell break 18340 target 18000 stop 100 poin. buy 17990 target 18400 stop 100p. Buy 17810 target 18200 stop 50p, Sell 18900 target 18400 stop 100p. (+150p)
Elliot Wave: Usd/Chf: Corrective Wave
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by TheLFB-Forex.com
Usd/Chf: Corrective Wave
4 Hour Chart trend: Short. Main price points: 1.1021. Looking for: Wave ii
Usd/Chf did not make the corrective pull-back in a blue wave ii, so we made some small changes on the wave count. We are still looking for the three waves of retracement in wave ii, as wave i looks to be trading near the lows right now. We can easily count five sub-waves down in a blue wave i leg, which suggests three waves of retracement in the near-term. Traders who are looking for short dollar plays should pay attention to the 50-61.8% Fibonacci retracement area, where a wave ii should find the highs, before wave iii gets on the way. The 1.1021 top must not be broken for this to technically follow through.
Usd/Chf: Corrective Wave
4 Hour Chart trend: Short. Main price points: 1.1021. Looking for: Wave ii
Usd/Chf did not make the corrective pull-back in a blue wave ii, so we made some small changes on the wave count. We are still looking for the three waves of retracement in wave ii, as wave i looks to be trading near the lows right now. We can easily count five sub-waves down in a blue wave i leg, which suggests three waves of retracement in the near-term. Traders who are looking for short dollar plays should pay attention to the 50-61.8% Fibonacci retracement area, where a wave ii should find the highs, before wave iii gets on the way. The 1.1021 top must not be broken for this to technically follow through.
Pound Set For Drop to Month Low Versus Yen: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The pound will probably fall to the lowest in a month against the yen after failing to break above resistance at its 76.4 percent retracement level, Citigroup Inc. said in a research report citing charting patterns.The U.K. currency depreciated today against 15 of its 16 major counterparts after government data showed the economy shrank in the first quarter by the most since 1958. The pound erased an earlier gain versus the yen, retreating from a two- week high on concern the nation may take longer to emerge from its recession.Sterling peaked at 160.29 yen today, below the 160.55 level that Citigroup said marks the 76.4 percent Fibonacci retracement of the currency’s decline from its June 12 high to the June 23 low. The pound is heading toward support at 153.97 and a break below will probably lead the currency lower to test 151.75, Citigroup technical analysts Tom Fitzpatrick in New York and Shyam Devani in London said in a note to clients.
Sterling fell 0.4 percent to 158.47 yen as of 1:31 p.m. in New York and declined 0.7 percent to $1.6451. The pound dropped 0.3 percent to 85.29 pence per euro. In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast price changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low. A break above resistance or below support indicates a currency may move to the next level.
Sterling fell 0.4 percent to 158.47 yen as of 1:31 p.m. in New York and declined 0.7 percent to $1.6451. The pound dropped 0.3 percent to 85.29 pence per euro. In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast price changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low. A break above resistance or below support indicates a currency may move to the next level.
Crude Oil to Rise More After Averting Slide: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil is set to extend gains amid this week’s volatility and may reach the $76 a barrel level last traded in mid-October, said the head of Cameron Hanover Inc.
The market’s ability today to stay close to the psychologically important $70-a-barrel mark is keeping prices from slipping into a technical downtrend channel on the daily continuation chart, said Peter Beutel, president of the New Canaan, Connecticut, trading advisory firm. Oil rose 41 percent between April and June, the biggest quarterly climb since 1990. “The rally has given the bulls a new lease on life and it now gives them the chance to take a run at buy-stops above $73.23,” Beutel said. “That level is acting like a magnet.”
Oil yesterday spiked above $73.23 a barrel, which stood as the June high for more than two weeks, as the dollar declined and escalating militant attacks in Nigeria raised concern supplies may be disrupted.Other technical readings also hint at upside momentum. The weekly Moving Average Convergence-Divergence oscillator continues to hold firm above its signal line, indicating support.“Momentum is a two-edged sword,” said Beutel. “It can show strength, or it can show overbought pressures.”
Further resistance is marked by the upper Bollinger Band, a moving objective around $74.64 a barrel today, before $76.28. That’s the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the rise to $147.27, the all-time high registered July 11 last year, from the December 19 low of $32.40. Oil last traded at $76.28 on October 15.“If prices fail below the Fibonacci figure, after triggering buy-stops, it could be a sign of a possible top,” he said. “If they sail up through that $76.28 figure, it would be bullish.”Front-month crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 56.7 percent in 2009, traded at $70.42 a barrel at 9:04 a.m. Singapore time.
The market’s ability today to stay close to the psychologically important $70-a-barrel mark is keeping prices from slipping into a technical downtrend channel on the daily continuation chart, said Peter Beutel, president of the New Canaan, Connecticut, trading advisory firm. Oil rose 41 percent between April and June, the biggest quarterly climb since 1990. “The rally has given the bulls a new lease on life and it now gives them the chance to take a run at buy-stops above $73.23,” Beutel said. “That level is acting like a magnet.”
Oil yesterday spiked above $73.23 a barrel, which stood as the June high for more than two weeks, as the dollar declined and escalating militant attacks in Nigeria raised concern supplies may be disrupted.Other technical readings also hint at upside momentum. The weekly Moving Average Convergence-Divergence oscillator continues to hold firm above its signal line, indicating support.“Momentum is a two-edged sword,” said Beutel. “It can show strength, or it can show overbought pressures.”
Further resistance is marked by the upper Bollinger Band, a moving objective around $74.64 a barrel today, before $76.28. That’s the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the rise to $147.27, the all-time high registered July 11 last year, from the December 19 low of $32.40. Oil last traded at $76.28 on October 15.“If prices fail below the Fibonacci figure, after triggering buy-stops, it could be a sign of a possible top,” he said. “If they sail up through that $76.28 figure, it would be bullish.”Front-month crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 56.7 percent in 2009, traded at $70.42 a barrel at 9:04 a.m. Singapore time.
Daily Technical Analysis Forex & Gold
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank
EURUSD
Comment: Pity it did not manage a monthly and quarterly close above 1.4200. Until then we shall have to allow for yet more random consolidation within the recent range. Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.4020; stop below 1.3800. Short term target 1.4135, then 1.4300/1.4339.Direction of Trade: →↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.4000 " 1.4153
1.3982 1.4178
1.39 1.42
1.3872 1.423
1.3800* 1.4339**
GBPUSD
Comment: The strongest monthly close since September and a quarterly close over 20 cents above the previous one underlines how far Cable has moved in the last 12 months (high 2.0162 and low 1.3500). Unfortunately yesterday's relatively large 'spike high' hints that we shall hold below that high (1.6745) for the rest of this week at least. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6420; stop below 1.6175. First target 1.6550/1.6600.Direction of Trade: → Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.6381 " 1.6488
1.6368 1.655
1.6274 1.6664
1.6209 1.6745*
1.6187* 1.68
USDJPY
Comment: Disappointing as we rally into a relatively large Ichimoku 'cloud' and above moving averages. Monthly and quarterly closes are not significant meaning we shall have to allow for more messy consolidation this week. Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 96.70; stop above 97.40. First target 96.00 then 95.00.Direction of Trade: →↘Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
96.17 " 96.58
95.95 97
95.5 97.27/97.37*
95.3 97.65
95 98
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
Rupee :Rupee had broken the trendline of 48.10. As discussed ONLY holding below 48.10 would have changed the trend towards rupee bullishness but the dollar recovered fast breaking 48 again on the upside. Holding above 48.10 is still rupee bearish . Caution : Only if we get another closing below 47.85 the stands reversed. Still Bearish (USD/INR : 48.10)
Gold :Gold was unable to hold above 943 dollars and fell down close to 20 dollars in the US Session. Still holding bearishness. (Gold- $929.00). Bearish.
Dollar Index :Dollar index extends the rebound from 79.56 and is set to take on 80.94. We're anticipating a break of 80.94 resistance to signal resumption of rise from 78.33, to be confirmed by break of 81.36/47 resistance zone. Further rally should be seen to next key resistance at 82.62 (38.2% retracement of 89.62 to 78.93 at 82.64). in such case. (DI- 80.10) Still Bullish
EURUSD
Comment: Pity it did not manage a monthly and quarterly close above 1.4200. Until then we shall have to allow for yet more random consolidation within the recent range. Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.4020; stop below 1.3800. Short term target 1.4135, then 1.4300/1.4339.Direction of Trade: →↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.4000 " 1.4153
1.3982 1.4178
1.39 1.42
1.3872 1.423
1.3800* 1.4339**
GBPUSD
Comment: The strongest monthly close since September and a quarterly close over 20 cents above the previous one underlines how far Cable has moved in the last 12 months (high 2.0162 and low 1.3500). Unfortunately yesterday's relatively large 'spike high' hints that we shall hold below that high (1.6745) for the rest of this week at least. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6420; stop below 1.6175. First target 1.6550/1.6600.Direction of Trade: → Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.6381 " 1.6488
1.6368 1.655
1.6274 1.6664
1.6209 1.6745*
1.6187* 1.68
USDJPY
Comment: Disappointing as we rally into a relatively large Ichimoku 'cloud' and above moving averages. Monthly and quarterly closes are not significant meaning we shall have to allow for more messy consolidation this week. Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 96.70; stop above 97.40. First target 96.00 then 95.00.Direction of Trade: →↘Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
96.17 " 96.58
95.95 97
95.5 97.27/97.37*
95.3 97.65
95 98
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
Rupee :Rupee had broken the trendline of 48.10. As discussed ONLY holding below 48.10 would have changed the trend towards rupee bullishness but the dollar recovered fast breaking 48 again on the upside. Holding above 48.10 is still rupee bearish . Caution : Only if we get another closing below 47.85 the stands reversed. Still Bearish (USD/INR : 48.10)
Gold :Gold was unable to hold above 943 dollars and fell down close to 20 dollars in the US Session. Still holding bearishness. (Gold- $929.00). Bearish.
Dollar Index :Dollar index extends the rebound from 79.56 and is set to take on 80.94. We're anticipating a break of 80.94 resistance to signal resumption of rise from 78.33, to be confirmed by break of 81.36/47 resistance zone. Further rally should be seen to next key resistance at 82.62 (38.2% retracement of 89.62 to 78.93 at 82.64). in such case. (DI- 80.10) Still Bullish
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Tue Jun 30 09 06:29 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil soars to as high as 73.38 today so far and the break of 73.23 high indicates that recent up trend is resuming. Further rise should now be seen as long as 48.45 support holds, targeting 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next. However, a break below 68.45 will open up a few short term bearish case that should at least bring a retest of 66.25 support.
In the bigger picture, rise from 33.20 is still in progress and there is no confirmation that it's completed yet. Though, note that daily MACD's break of its up trend line provides a signal that such up trend is near to the end. Hence, we'd continue to monitor loss of up side momentum as crude oil approaches 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. On the downside, break of 66.25 support will be an important indication that crude oil has topped out and will turn focus to 45.44/54.66 support zone for confirmation.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil soars to as high as 73.38 today so far and the break of 73.23 high indicates that recent up trend is resuming. Further rise should now be seen as long as 48.45 support holds, targeting 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next. However, a break below 68.45 will open up a few short term bearish case that should at least bring a retest of 66.25 support.
In the bigger picture, rise from 33.20 is still in progress and there is no confirmation that it's completed yet. Though, note that daily MACD's break of its up trend line provides a signal that such up trend is near to the end. Hence, we'd continue to monitor loss of up side momentum as crude oil approaches 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. On the downside, break of 66.25 support will be an important indication that crude oil has topped out and will turn focus to 45.44/54.66 support zone for confirmation.
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Tue Jun 30 09 06:30 ET
Comex Gold (GC)
Intraday outlook in Gold remains neutral for the moment and some more sideway trading might be seen. But after all, note that prior break of 944.6 resistance argues that fall from 992.1 has completed with bullish convergence conditions in 4 hours MACD. We still cautiously prefer further rise in near term as long as 927.6 minor support holds, towards 61.8% retracement of 992.1 to 913.2 at 962 next. However, a break below 927.6 minor support will in turn suggest that recovery from 913.2 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside.
In the bigger picture, the strong rebound from 61.8% retracement of 865.5 to 992.1 at 913.9 shifts favors back to the case that fall from 992.1 is merely correction to rise from 865. In other words, such rally is still in progress and break of 992.1 will target retest of 1007.7/1033.9 key resistance zone. Sustained break there will confirm lon term up trend resumption. On the downside, note that break of 913.2 will turn favor back to the case that fall from 992.1 is part of the consolidation from 1007.7, which is not completed and should then target 865 level before resuming rise from 681.
Comex Gold (GC)
Intraday outlook in Gold remains neutral for the moment and some more sideway trading might be seen. But after all, note that prior break of 944.6 resistance argues that fall from 992.1 has completed with bullish convergence conditions in 4 hours MACD. We still cautiously prefer further rise in near term as long as 927.6 minor support holds, towards 61.8% retracement of 992.1 to 913.2 at 962 next. However, a break below 927.6 minor support will in turn suggest that recovery from 913.2 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside.
In the bigger picture, the strong rebound from 61.8% retracement of 865.5 to 992.1 at 913.9 shifts favors back to the case that fall from 992.1 is merely correction to rise from 865. In other words, such rally is still in progress and break of 992.1 will target retest of 1007.7/1033.9 key resistance zone. Sustained break there will confirm lon term up trend resumption. On the downside, note that break of 913.2 will turn favor back to the case that fall from 992.1 is part of the consolidation from 1007.7, which is not completed and should then target 865 level before resuming rise from 681.
Spekulasi Consumer Confidence AS Dorong Penguatan Euro & Pound
USD Index 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low EUR-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
80.10 89.62 (04/03) 78.59 (01/06) 1.4007 1.4337 (03/06) 1.2459 (04/03)
Dolar mendapatkan tekanan lebih lanjut terhadap mata uang Eropa, berkat spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi global yang telah mengangkat harga saham dan komoditi global (minyak menyentuh level tertinggi $ 73.38/barel), menurunkan daya tarik untuk dolar dan investor memburu aset yang dapat menghasilkan yield yang lebih tinggi. Dolar melemah terhadap 13 dari 16 mata uang yang paling aktif diperdagangkan sebelum laporan Consumer Confidence AS bulan Juni dirilis hari ini akan menunjukkan kenaikan ke level tertinggi 9-bulan, memberikan keyakinan lebih besar kepada investor untuk memburu aset yang beresiko. Sebelumnya di sesi Asia hari Senin, dolar semoat menguat berkat pernyataan dari gubernur PBOC yang mengenyampingkan perubahan perubahan yang drastis di kebijakan cadangan devisa mata uang asing. Pasar masih menanti rilisan pertemuan bank sentral Eropa dan data tenaga kerja AS menjelang liburan akhir pekan di AS, yang dapat mendorong aksi profit-taking posisi short dolar.
Euro melanjutkan penguatan untuk hari ke-4 terhadap dolar dan yen, setelah investor memburu aset yang beresiko seperti saham dan komoditi di tengah meningkatnya optimisme terhadap pemulihan ekonomi global, yang menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang dolar AS, diikuti tingkat perbedaan suku bunga yang masih menguntungkan euro. Euro kemarin mendapatkan sentimen positif dari pemulihan ekonomi seperti data consumer confidence euro bulan Juni yang meningkat ke 73.3 dari 64.6 di bulan Maret (3 bulan berturut-turut). Laporan tersebut meningkatkan harapan bahwa stimulus fiskal dan moneter akan membantu ekonomi cepat pulih di akhir tahun ini. Spekulasi kenaikan consumer confidence AS meningkat di bulan Juni, dirilis hari ini dapat menguatkan euro lebih lanjut menjelang pertemuan ECB yang akan menahan laju suku bunga 1.0% dan mempertahankan kebijakan quantitative easing.
USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
95.50 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.6452 1.6661 (03/06) 1.3502 (23/01)
Yen mengalami penguatan di sesi Asia hari ini, berkat pelemahan dolar AS terhadap mata uang utama dunia setelah indeks saham MSCI Asia Pasific menguat 1.3% dan Indeks Nikkei 225 stock average menguat 1.9%, diikuti kenaikan harga minyak akibat meningkatnya ketegangan geopolitik di Nigeria, mendorong investor memburu aset yang beresiko, yang dapat menghasilkan yield yang lebih tinggi seperti euro, pound dan aussie. Yen kemarin melemah terhadap mata uang utama dunia karena membaiknya resiko sentimen. Penguatan saham Eropa dan Wall Street dan penurunan indeks volatility CBOE VIX ke level terendah pertengahan September mengindikasikan membaiknya risk appetite. China menyatakan tidak akan merubah kebijakan cadangan devisa dalam bentuk mata uang asing, dikuti laporan Industrial Production dan Retail Sales Jepang tercatat dibawah perkiraan pasar, ikut membebani kinerja JPY hingga hari ini.
Pound sterling menguat lebih lanjut ke level tertinggi 1.6744 di sesi Asia hari ini, berkat pemulihan ekonomi global setelah data consumer confidence Euro meningkat lebih tinggi dari perkiraan kemarin yang memicu spekulasi consumer confidence AS dirilis hari ini akan meningkat di bulan Juni. Kenaikan harga minyak ke level tertinggi 73.38 sejak November 2008, ikut memberikan sentimen positif kepada pound dolar. Sementara laporan mortgage approval Inggris meningkat lebih rendah dari perkiraan di bulan lalu, menjadi 43,414 pinjaman di bulan Mei, dibandingkan 43,191 di bulan April. Pound akan kembali menguat lebih lanjut, jika data consumer confidence AS tercatat diatas perkiraan pasar. Kami melihat potensi sell on rally di kisaran 1.68-1.70 mengantisipasi penurunan GDP Q1 Inggris dari laporan sebelumnya, hari ini.
KIE 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
10,220 12,150 (02/03) 9,900 (05/06) 0.8015 0.8263 (03/06) 0.6248 (02/02)
Kontrak Indeks Emas (USD-IDR) di sesi Asia hari ini melemah ke Rp 10,175, setelah kenaikan pasar saham dan komoditi global meningkatkan daya tarik untuk rupiah ketimbang dolar yang juga terpurul terhadap mata uang utama dunia hari ini. Masih tingginya capital inflow ke pasar aset domestik, mengantisipasi penurunan inflasi (Rabu) dan BI Rate (Jumat; -25 bsp menjadi 6.75%) dan penerbitan Samurai Bond sebesar US$ 1 miliar dalam waktu dekat, masih memberikan momentum penguatan untuk rupiah terhadap dolar. KIE berpotensi mengalami penguatan kuartalan terbesar sejak tahun 2004 (rally +14.6%), karena meningkatnya optimisme pemulihan ekonomi global meningkatkan permintaan untuk aset di pasar emerging. Spekulasi window dressing oleh fund manager lokal maupun asing di pasar saham di akhir semester 1 yang terbatas dan perkiraan data tenaga kerja AS akan menunjukkan hasil lebih lemah dari periode sebelumnya dapat menahan laju pelemahan KIE pekan ini. Perkiraan range hingga besok siang: 10,100-10,250.
Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) berpotensi mengalami penguatan terbaik kuartalan terhadap dolar sejak tahun 1985, karena optimisme keterpurukan ekonomi global mereda dipicu oleh kenaikan permintaan untuk aset yang dapat menghasilkan yield yang lebih tinggi. Aussie dan kiwi menguat setelah indeks saham Asia Pasifik dan harga komoditi menguat tajam hari ini. Aussie dan kiwi dapat melanjutkan kenaikan menghadapi data consumer confidence AS hari ini.
Technical Analysis
(+50p, close sell 1.4150). Trend bullish jangka pendek EURUSD masih aman karena masih berada dalam uptrend channel selama mempertahankan support line di 1.3906, didukung indikator MACD bullish, Stochastic crossing up, ADX meningkat, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan laju kenaikan lebih lanjut. Pola H&S dengan neckline di 1.3754, jika tembus dapat picu penurunan ke target 1.3419. Hitungan Elliot wave euro dolar dalam proses wave b dalam wave minor ii - sub wave intermediate 4. Support di 1.3918 (trendline support)/1.3825 (low). Resistance di 1.4194 (76.4 FR))/1.4334 (100.0 FR). Buy 1.3970 & 1.4010 target di 1.4190 stop 60p, buy 1.3760 target 1.4100 stop 60p, sell 1.4170/1.4200 target 1.3900 stop 100p. Sell break 1.3720 target 1.4000 stop 50p.
(Hold buy 95.80 target 97.00 stop 94.80) USDJPY masih berada dalam descending triangle, dimana candle daily menunjukkan pola stick sandwich, didukung oleh indikator ADX menurun dan MACD bearish, stochastic netral, seharusnya mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas hari ini. Support berada di 95.12 (support line)/94.13 (trendline support). Trend bearish karena ditutup dibawah 95.0(10 MA)/96.03 (200 MA). Resistance berada di 96.13 (upper channel)/96.61 (projeksi 61.8 FE). Buy 95.10 target 97.10 stop 60p, sell 97.10 target 96.00 stop diatas 97.80, sell 98.70 target 97.00 stop 50p. buy 94.20 target 97.50 stop di 94.00.
(-30+60p closed buy break 1.6670). GBPUSD masih mempertahankan trend bullish karena tembusnya high 03/06 di 1.661 dan tembusnya trendline resistance di 1.6585 kemarin, meningkatkan potensi kenaikan lebih lanjut selama ditutup diatas level tersebut hari ini. Support berada di 1.6528 (channel support), seharusnya mempertahankan trend bullish untuk target 1.6815-1.6880. Indikator ADX menunjukkan kenaikan, mendukung potensi kenaikan hari ini. Tembusnya trendline resistance di 1.6585 dapat mendorong GBP ke target 1.6814/1.6862 (123.62 FR). Analisa EW menunjukkan proses zig zag wave c / iii minutte dalam koreksi intemediate 4. Sell 1.6815 & 1.6860 target 1.6400 stop 60p. Buy 1.6530 & 1.6600 target 1.6700 stop 60p, Sell break 1.6420 target 1.6300 stop 60p. Buy 1.6310 target 1.6510 stop 30p. Sell break 1.6300 target 1.6710 stop 50p. Buy break 1.6870 target 1.7000 stop 60p. (hold sell 0.8100 target 0.8000 stop 0.8200) AUD-USD mulai mendapatkan signal negatif dari tembusnya trendline di 0.7867 didukung oleh stochastic crossing up dan pola candle advanced blcok, sulit mencapai diatas 0.8151 (61.8 FE)/0.8193 (resistance channel). Elliot wave menunjukkan proses wave zig zag c dalam wave intermediate 3. Buy 0.7950 target 0.8100 stop 100p, buy 0.7780 target 0.8100 stop 60p. sell 0.8190 target 0.7800 stop 50p. Buy break 0.8210 target 0.8450.
80.10 89.62 (04/03) 78.59 (01/06) 1.4007 1.4337 (03/06) 1.2459 (04/03)
Dolar mendapatkan tekanan lebih lanjut terhadap mata uang Eropa, berkat spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi global yang telah mengangkat harga saham dan komoditi global (minyak menyentuh level tertinggi $ 73.38/barel), menurunkan daya tarik untuk dolar dan investor memburu aset yang dapat menghasilkan yield yang lebih tinggi. Dolar melemah terhadap 13 dari 16 mata uang yang paling aktif diperdagangkan sebelum laporan Consumer Confidence AS bulan Juni dirilis hari ini akan menunjukkan kenaikan ke level tertinggi 9-bulan, memberikan keyakinan lebih besar kepada investor untuk memburu aset yang beresiko. Sebelumnya di sesi Asia hari Senin, dolar semoat menguat berkat pernyataan dari gubernur PBOC yang mengenyampingkan perubahan perubahan yang drastis di kebijakan cadangan devisa mata uang asing. Pasar masih menanti rilisan pertemuan bank sentral Eropa dan data tenaga kerja AS menjelang liburan akhir pekan di AS, yang dapat mendorong aksi profit-taking posisi short dolar.
Euro melanjutkan penguatan untuk hari ke-4 terhadap dolar dan yen, setelah investor memburu aset yang beresiko seperti saham dan komoditi di tengah meningkatnya optimisme terhadap pemulihan ekonomi global, yang menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang dolar AS, diikuti tingkat perbedaan suku bunga yang masih menguntungkan euro. Euro kemarin mendapatkan sentimen positif dari pemulihan ekonomi seperti data consumer confidence euro bulan Juni yang meningkat ke 73.3 dari 64.6 di bulan Maret (3 bulan berturut-turut). Laporan tersebut meningkatkan harapan bahwa stimulus fiskal dan moneter akan membantu ekonomi cepat pulih di akhir tahun ini. Spekulasi kenaikan consumer confidence AS meningkat di bulan Juni, dirilis hari ini dapat menguatkan euro lebih lanjut menjelang pertemuan ECB yang akan menahan laju suku bunga 1.0% dan mempertahankan kebijakan quantitative easing.
USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
95.50 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.6452 1.6661 (03/06) 1.3502 (23/01)
Yen mengalami penguatan di sesi Asia hari ini, berkat pelemahan dolar AS terhadap mata uang utama dunia setelah indeks saham MSCI Asia Pasific menguat 1.3% dan Indeks Nikkei 225 stock average menguat 1.9%, diikuti kenaikan harga minyak akibat meningkatnya ketegangan geopolitik di Nigeria, mendorong investor memburu aset yang beresiko, yang dapat menghasilkan yield yang lebih tinggi seperti euro, pound dan aussie. Yen kemarin melemah terhadap mata uang utama dunia karena membaiknya resiko sentimen. Penguatan saham Eropa dan Wall Street dan penurunan indeks volatility CBOE VIX ke level terendah pertengahan September mengindikasikan membaiknya risk appetite. China menyatakan tidak akan merubah kebijakan cadangan devisa dalam bentuk mata uang asing, dikuti laporan Industrial Production dan Retail Sales Jepang tercatat dibawah perkiraan pasar, ikut membebani kinerja JPY hingga hari ini.
Pound sterling menguat lebih lanjut ke level tertinggi 1.6744 di sesi Asia hari ini, berkat pemulihan ekonomi global setelah data consumer confidence Euro meningkat lebih tinggi dari perkiraan kemarin yang memicu spekulasi consumer confidence AS dirilis hari ini akan meningkat di bulan Juni. Kenaikan harga minyak ke level tertinggi 73.38 sejak November 2008, ikut memberikan sentimen positif kepada pound dolar. Sementara laporan mortgage approval Inggris meningkat lebih rendah dari perkiraan di bulan lalu, menjadi 43,414 pinjaman di bulan Mei, dibandingkan 43,191 di bulan April. Pound akan kembali menguat lebih lanjut, jika data consumer confidence AS tercatat diatas perkiraan pasar. Kami melihat potensi sell on rally di kisaran 1.68-1.70 mengantisipasi penurunan GDP Q1 Inggris dari laporan sebelumnya, hari ini.
KIE 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
10,220 12,150 (02/03) 9,900 (05/06) 0.8015 0.8263 (03/06) 0.6248 (02/02)
Kontrak Indeks Emas (USD-IDR) di sesi Asia hari ini melemah ke Rp 10,175, setelah kenaikan pasar saham dan komoditi global meningkatkan daya tarik untuk rupiah ketimbang dolar yang juga terpurul terhadap mata uang utama dunia hari ini. Masih tingginya capital inflow ke pasar aset domestik, mengantisipasi penurunan inflasi (Rabu) dan BI Rate (Jumat; -25 bsp menjadi 6.75%) dan penerbitan Samurai Bond sebesar US$ 1 miliar dalam waktu dekat, masih memberikan momentum penguatan untuk rupiah terhadap dolar. KIE berpotensi mengalami penguatan kuartalan terbesar sejak tahun 2004 (rally +14.6%), karena meningkatnya optimisme pemulihan ekonomi global meningkatkan permintaan untuk aset di pasar emerging. Spekulasi window dressing oleh fund manager lokal maupun asing di pasar saham di akhir semester 1 yang terbatas dan perkiraan data tenaga kerja AS akan menunjukkan hasil lebih lemah dari periode sebelumnya dapat menahan laju pelemahan KIE pekan ini. Perkiraan range hingga besok siang: 10,100-10,250.
Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) berpotensi mengalami penguatan terbaik kuartalan terhadap dolar sejak tahun 1985, karena optimisme keterpurukan ekonomi global mereda dipicu oleh kenaikan permintaan untuk aset yang dapat menghasilkan yield yang lebih tinggi. Aussie dan kiwi menguat setelah indeks saham Asia Pasifik dan harga komoditi menguat tajam hari ini. Aussie dan kiwi dapat melanjutkan kenaikan menghadapi data consumer confidence AS hari ini.
Technical Analysis
(+50p, close sell 1.4150). Trend bullish jangka pendek EURUSD masih aman karena masih berada dalam uptrend channel selama mempertahankan support line di 1.3906, didukung indikator MACD bullish, Stochastic crossing up, ADX meningkat, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan laju kenaikan lebih lanjut. Pola H&S dengan neckline di 1.3754, jika tembus dapat picu penurunan ke target 1.3419. Hitungan Elliot wave euro dolar dalam proses wave b dalam wave minor ii - sub wave intermediate 4. Support di 1.3918 (trendline support)/1.3825 (low). Resistance di 1.4194 (76.4 FR))/1.4334 (100.0 FR). Buy 1.3970 & 1.4010 target di 1.4190 stop 60p, buy 1.3760 target 1.4100 stop 60p, sell 1.4170/1.4200 target 1.3900 stop 100p. Sell break 1.3720 target 1.4000 stop 50p.
(Hold buy 95.80 target 97.00 stop 94.80) USDJPY masih berada dalam descending triangle, dimana candle daily menunjukkan pola stick sandwich, didukung oleh indikator ADX menurun dan MACD bearish, stochastic netral, seharusnya mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas hari ini. Support berada di 95.12 (support line)/94.13 (trendline support). Trend bearish karena ditutup dibawah 95.0(10 MA)/96.03 (200 MA). Resistance berada di 96.13 (upper channel)/96.61 (projeksi 61.8 FE). Buy 95.10 target 97.10 stop 60p, sell 97.10 target 96.00 stop diatas 97.80, sell 98.70 target 97.00 stop 50p. buy 94.20 target 97.50 stop di 94.00.
(-30+60p closed buy break 1.6670). GBPUSD masih mempertahankan trend bullish karena tembusnya high 03/06 di 1.661 dan tembusnya trendline resistance di 1.6585 kemarin, meningkatkan potensi kenaikan lebih lanjut selama ditutup diatas level tersebut hari ini. Support berada di 1.6528 (channel support), seharusnya mempertahankan trend bullish untuk target 1.6815-1.6880. Indikator ADX menunjukkan kenaikan, mendukung potensi kenaikan hari ini. Tembusnya trendline resistance di 1.6585 dapat mendorong GBP ke target 1.6814/1.6862 (123.62 FR). Analisa EW menunjukkan proses zig zag wave c / iii minutte dalam koreksi intemediate 4. Sell 1.6815 & 1.6860 target 1.6400 stop 60p. Buy 1.6530 & 1.6600 target 1.6700 stop 60p, Sell break 1.6420 target 1.6300 stop 60p. Buy 1.6310 target 1.6510 stop 30p. Sell break 1.6300 target 1.6710 stop 50p. Buy break 1.6870 target 1.7000 stop 60p. (hold sell 0.8100 target 0.8000 stop 0.8200) AUD-USD mulai mendapatkan signal negatif dari tembusnya trendline di 0.7867 didukung oleh stochastic crossing up dan pola candle advanced blcok, sulit mencapai diatas 0.8151 (61.8 FE)/0.8193 (resistance channel). Elliot wave menunjukkan proses wave zig zag c dalam wave intermediate 3. Buy 0.7950 target 0.8100 stop 100p, buy 0.7780 target 0.8100 stop 60p. sell 0.8190 target 0.7800 stop 50p. Buy break 0.8210 target 0.8450.
IHSG AKan Mendapatkan Technical Resistance Rejection
Market Review
Minimnya sentimen positif dari dalam dan luar negeri, di tengah penantian rilisan sejumlah data ekonomi dan pertemuan bank sentral baik di dalam maupun luar negeri di sepanjang pekan ini, mendorong investor menahan diri untuk melakukan perdagangan di awal pekan ini. Penurunan harga komoditas global ikut melemahkan saham komoditi lokal. Investor masih menanti rilisan data inflasi RI bulan Juni dirilis Rabu dan BI rate Jumat ini, memicu tipisnya volume perdagangan kemarin. Sementara lemahnya sejumlah indeks saham regional ikut memberikan imbas negatif kepada IHSG. Indeks ditutup melemah 6.477 poin (-0.32%), ditutup di 2,033.716, dengan nilai transaksi tercatat Rp 2.248 triliun. Investor asing membukukan net sell sebesar Rp 61.425miliar, dibanding net buy Rp 107.578 miliar hari Jumat (26/06).
Indeks saham di Asia-Pasifik melemah kemarin, karena perusahaan finansial di Jepang berencana menjual saham senilai US$ 8.8 miliar dan meningkatnya kekhawatiran sektor manufakturing Jepang akan melambat. Indeks Nikkei 225 average Jepang anjlok 1% menjadi 9,783.47 setelah data Retail Sales & Industrial Output Jepang mengecewakan pasar. Meski indeks komposit Shanghai menguat 1.6%, berkat spekulasi penurunan suku bunga PBOC China dalam waktu dekat.
IHSG Outlook
Kenaikan harga komoditi yang dipimpin harga minyak ($71.15 semalam; target $ 73/77) seharusnya positif untuk saham komoditi (pertambangan batubara dan logam dan perkebunan) dan spekulasi penurunan suku bunga Bank Indonesia hari Jumat (perkiraan -25 bsp menjadi 6.75%) setelah Bank Indonesia kemarin mengatakan inflasi tahunan (year-on-year) di bulan Juni, dapat menyentuh 3.8% dibandingkan inflasi tahunan bulan Mei sebesar 6.04%, seharusnya positif untuk saham perbankan, property dan konsumsi dan memberikan momentum kenaikan IHSG hari ini. Sementara sentimen positif lainnya seperti fund manager asing masih melirik saham lokal, kuatnya inflow dari dana asing jangka pendek sekitar Rp 334 miliar hari Jumat (26/06) dari total sekitar Rp 776 miliar sejak awal bulan ini, Rp 5,03 triliun sejak awal tahun 2009. Perkiraan fund manager akan melakukan window dressing (mempercantik laporan kinerja Q2 & H1 2009) di hari terakhir bulan Juni, dapat menopang kinerja IHSG hari ini. Meski laju kenaikan IHSG terbatas karena laju kenaikan harga minyak di atas $ 70/barel dapat memicu kekhawatiran isu kenaikan subsidi BBM dalam RAPBN 2009, yang berpotensi melemahkan rupiah terhadap dolar.
Buy & hold Return >10%; (risk <10%): BUMI/BNBR/ENRG/ELTY, MNCN/BMTR. ASIII, KIJA, HEXA, BBRI, BMRI, BBNI, ANTM, INCO, INTP.
Stock Picks:
* CMNP overweight target Rp 1150
* TBLA Hold target Rp 360
Global Outlook
Indeks saham regional Asia dan global diperkirakan menguat hari ini, sesuai perkiraan kami yang mengantisipasi kenaikan indeks saham global di awal pekan ini, berkat perkiraan fund manager global akan melakukan window dressing (mendandani laporan kinerja Q2 & H 1 2009) di hari terakhir di akhir bulan Juni, harga minyak menguat 2.75% di $ 71.39 semalam dapat mengangkat harga saham komoditas dan spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi global setelah data keyakinan konsumen Euro melonjak di bulan Juni dan perkiraan kenaikan keyakinan konsumen AS dirilis hari ini. Positifnya upgrade saham Microsoft oleh Deutsche Bank dan J.C Penney oleh Morgan Stanley, ikut memberikan isu positif untuk saham teknologi dan konsumsi global. Sementara Treasury AS menguat untuk hari ke-3, mendorong yield 10-tahun AS mendekati level terendah 4 pekan, menurunkan daya tarik untuk dolar AS, mendorong investor memburu aset yang menghasilkan yield yang lebih tinggi seperti saham dan komoditi.
Technical Analysis:
IHSG mendapatkan signal negatif dari pola candle dojis yang menunjukkan potensi bearish reversal, didukung oleh indikator ADX yang terkoreksi turun, meski MACD dan stochastic berada dalam teritorial netral, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan potensi kenaikan terbatas. Adanya technical rejection dari trendline resistance di 2,057, bilamana ditutup diatas level tersebut dapat mendorong kenaikan lebih lanjut ke target high 2,116/2,172 (61.8% FR 2835-1089). Indikator 5 (1,998) & 10-day MA (2,003) terlihat crossing, dapat menopang kinerja IHSG hari ini. Hitungan Elliot Wave: indeks berada dalam proses wave b / ii selama tidak melewati 2,057/2,116 (high 10/06) dalam wave 4 subwave intermediate (4) / (B), konformasi target 2,172/2,408 (76.4% FR) periode 3 bulan, selama tidak ditutup dibawah 2,007 (2 hari penutupan).
Resistance: 2108.36/2094.11/2079.87/2045.02. PP 2037.14
Support : 2024.42/2016.53/2008.65/1980.16
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2,020 - 2,080)
Minimnya sentimen positif dari dalam dan luar negeri, di tengah penantian rilisan sejumlah data ekonomi dan pertemuan bank sentral baik di dalam maupun luar negeri di sepanjang pekan ini, mendorong investor menahan diri untuk melakukan perdagangan di awal pekan ini. Penurunan harga komoditas global ikut melemahkan saham komoditi lokal. Investor masih menanti rilisan data inflasi RI bulan Juni dirilis Rabu dan BI rate Jumat ini, memicu tipisnya volume perdagangan kemarin. Sementara lemahnya sejumlah indeks saham regional ikut memberikan imbas negatif kepada IHSG. Indeks ditutup melemah 6.477 poin (-0.32%), ditutup di 2,033.716, dengan nilai transaksi tercatat Rp 2.248 triliun. Investor asing membukukan net sell sebesar Rp 61.425miliar, dibanding net buy Rp 107.578 miliar hari Jumat (26/06).
Indeks saham di Asia-Pasifik melemah kemarin, karena perusahaan finansial di Jepang berencana menjual saham senilai US$ 8.8 miliar dan meningkatnya kekhawatiran sektor manufakturing Jepang akan melambat. Indeks Nikkei 225 average Jepang anjlok 1% menjadi 9,783.47 setelah data Retail Sales & Industrial Output Jepang mengecewakan pasar. Meski indeks komposit Shanghai menguat 1.6%, berkat spekulasi penurunan suku bunga PBOC China dalam waktu dekat.
IHSG Outlook
Kenaikan harga komoditi yang dipimpin harga minyak ($71.15 semalam; target $ 73/77) seharusnya positif untuk saham komoditi (pertambangan batubara dan logam dan perkebunan) dan spekulasi penurunan suku bunga Bank Indonesia hari Jumat (perkiraan -25 bsp menjadi 6.75%) setelah Bank Indonesia kemarin mengatakan inflasi tahunan (year-on-year) di bulan Juni, dapat menyentuh 3.8% dibandingkan inflasi tahunan bulan Mei sebesar 6.04%, seharusnya positif untuk saham perbankan, property dan konsumsi dan memberikan momentum kenaikan IHSG hari ini. Sementara sentimen positif lainnya seperti fund manager asing masih melirik saham lokal, kuatnya inflow dari dana asing jangka pendek sekitar Rp 334 miliar hari Jumat (26/06) dari total sekitar Rp 776 miliar sejak awal bulan ini, Rp 5,03 triliun sejak awal tahun 2009. Perkiraan fund manager akan melakukan window dressing (mempercantik laporan kinerja Q2 & H1 2009) di hari terakhir bulan Juni, dapat menopang kinerja IHSG hari ini. Meski laju kenaikan IHSG terbatas karena laju kenaikan harga minyak di atas $ 70/barel dapat memicu kekhawatiran isu kenaikan subsidi BBM dalam RAPBN 2009, yang berpotensi melemahkan rupiah terhadap dolar.
Buy & hold Return >10%; (risk <10%): BUMI/BNBR/ENRG/ELTY, MNCN/BMTR. ASIII, KIJA, HEXA, BBRI, BMRI, BBNI, ANTM, INCO, INTP.
Stock Picks:
* CMNP overweight target Rp 1150
* TBLA Hold target Rp 360
Global Outlook
Indeks saham regional Asia dan global diperkirakan menguat hari ini, sesuai perkiraan kami yang mengantisipasi kenaikan indeks saham global di awal pekan ini, berkat perkiraan fund manager global akan melakukan window dressing (mendandani laporan kinerja Q2 & H 1 2009) di hari terakhir di akhir bulan Juni, harga minyak menguat 2.75% di $ 71.39 semalam dapat mengangkat harga saham komoditas dan spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi global setelah data keyakinan konsumen Euro melonjak di bulan Juni dan perkiraan kenaikan keyakinan konsumen AS dirilis hari ini. Positifnya upgrade saham Microsoft oleh Deutsche Bank dan J.C Penney oleh Morgan Stanley, ikut memberikan isu positif untuk saham teknologi dan konsumsi global. Sementara Treasury AS menguat untuk hari ke-3, mendorong yield 10-tahun AS mendekati level terendah 4 pekan, menurunkan daya tarik untuk dolar AS, mendorong investor memburu aset yang menghasilkan yield yang lebih tinggi seperti saham dan komoditi.
Technical Analysis:
IHSG mendapatkan signal negatif dari pola candle dojis yang menunjukkan potensi bearish reversal, didukung oleh indikator ADX yang terkoreksi turun, meski MACD dan stochastic berada dalam teritorial netral, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan potensi kenaikan terbatas. Adanya technical rejection dari trendline resistance di 2,057, bilamana ditutup diatas level tersebut dapat mendorong kenaikan lebih lanjut ke target high 2,116/2,172 (61.8% FR 2835-1089). Indikator 5 (1,998) & 10-day MA (2,003) terlihat crossing, dapat menopang kinerja IHSG hari ini. Hitungan Elliot Wave: indeks berada dalam proses wave b / ii selama tidak melewati 2,057/2,116 (high 10/06) dalam wave 4 subwave intermediate (4) / (B), konformasi target 2,172/2,408 (76.4% FR) periode 3 bulan, selama tidak ditutup dibawah 2,007 (2 hari penutupan).
Resistance: 2108.36/2094.11/2079.87/2045.02. PP 2037.14
Support : 2024.42/2016.53/2008.65/1980.16
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2,020 - 2,080)
Momentum Kenaikan Regional Terbatas
SSIU9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
9915 9805 9965 9705 10080 9920 10180 9775 9820 9865 9955 10000 10045
Commentary
Di chart 4 jam, trend jangka pendek indeks SSIU9 masih menunjukkan trend bullish karena indeks masih berada dalam pola uptrend channel, setelah indeks gagal ditutup diatas resistance di 9,921 (38.2 FR 10180-9500), dimana dapat mengarahkan indeks ke target support di 9760 (61.8 FR)/9661 (76.4 FR). Indikator teknikal ADX menunjukkan penurunan, stochastic overbought, dan MACD berada dalam teritorial positif, dan indeks masih berada dalam uptrend channel, seharusnya dapat membatasi potensi kenaikan hari ini. Penutupan indeks diatas 9921, dapat mendukung kelanjutan momentum kenaikan indeks. Perkiraan range hari ini pada kisaran 9750-10000.
Rekomendasi : Buy 9750 target 10000 stop 100p, sell 10000 target 9700 stop 100p, buy 9660 target 9,500 stop 100p. (+150p)
KSU9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
179.15 178.1 180. 177.1 182.0 179.1 183.0 174.9 176.6 177.9 180.8 182.5 183.8
Commentary
Dalam chart 4-jam, indeks KSU9 berada dalam pola congestion di kisaran range 184.15-172.60, didukung oleh Indikator teknikal MACD netral dan stochastic crossing up, ADX terkoreksi turun, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi technical rebound hari ini terbatas. Potensi kenaikan indeks terbatas gagal ditutup diatas level 180.16 (23.6 FR). Ditutup diatas level tersebut target 184.10 (double top di chart 4 jam). Tetapi jika indeks ditutup dibawah support line di 172.15, trend akan berbalik bearish, target 170.11 (50.0 FR)/166.80 (61.8 FR). Perkiraan range hari ini: 177.00-182.00
Rekomendasi :Buy 177.70 target 178.00 stop 60p, sell 183 & 184 target 178.00 stop 100p. sell 178.00 target 176.00. Sell break 172.50 target 170.00 stop 100p. buy 175.80 target 178.50 stop 100p (-50-100p).
HSIN9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
18542 18438 18750 18338 18906 18594 19006 18168 18296 18435 18702 18830 18969
Commentary
Dalam chart 4 jam, indeks menunjukkan pola uptrend channel dan menunjukkan trend masih bullish jangka pendek setelah ditutup diatas 18,403 (23.6% FR). Indikator teknikal ADX meningkat dan stochastic crossing up, meski MACD masih berada di teritorial positif, menunjukkan potensi technical rebound lebih lanjut. Daily candle menunjukkan twezeer top, seharusnya mendukung laju kenaikan hari ini masih tetap kuat. Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks masih berada dalam wave c / (ii) dalam subwave motive (3) telah berakhir di di 19,100 dalam cycle B. Perkiraan range hari ini : 18.300-18.750
Rekomendasi : Buy 18410 target 18800 (or closing) stop 50 p. buy break 18650 target 18800 stop 100 poin. buy 17990 target 18400 stop 100p. Buy 17810 target 18200 stop 50p, Sell break 17770 target 17950 stop 60p.
9915 9805 9965 9705 10080 9920 10180 9775 9820 9865 9955 10000 10045
Commentary
Di chart 4 jam, trend jangka pendek indeks SSIU9 masih menunjukkan trend bullish karena indeks masih berada dalam pola uptrend channel, setelah indeks gagal ditutup diatas resistance di 9,921 (38.2 FR 10180-9500), dimana dapat mengarahkan indeks ke target support di 9760 (61.8 FR)/9661 (76.4 FR). Indikator teknikal ADX menunjukkan penurunan, stochastic overbought, dan MACD berada dalam teritorial positif, dan indeks masih berada dalam uptrend channel, seharusnya dapat membatasi potensi kenaikan hari ini. Penutupan indeks diatas 9921, dapat mendukung kelanjutan momentum kenaikan indeks. Perkiraan range hari ini pada kisaran 9750-10000.
Rekomendasi : Buy 9750 target 10000 stop 100p, sell 10000 target 9700 stop 100p, buy 9660 target 9,500 stop 100p. (+150p)
KSU9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
179.15 178.1 180. 177.1 182.0 179.1 183.0 174.9 176.6 177.9 180.8 182.5 183.8
Commentary
Dalam chart 4-jam, indeks KSU9 berada dalam pola congestion di kisaran range 184.15-172.60, didukung oleh Indikator teknikal MACD netral dan stochastic crossing up, ADX terkoreksi turun, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi technical rebound hari ini terbatas. Potensi kenaikan indeks terbatas gagal ditutup diatas level 180.16 (23.6 FR). Ditutup diatas level tersebut target 184.10 (double top di chart 4 jam). Tetapi jika indeks ditutup dibawah support line di 172.15, trend akan berbalik bearish, target 170.11 (50.0 FR)/166.80 (61.8 FR). Perkiraan range hari ini: 177.00-182.00
Rekomendasi :Buy 177.70 target 178.00 stop 60p, sell 183 & 184 target 178.00 stop 100p. sell 178.00 target 176.00. Sell break 172.50 target 170.00 stop 100p. buy 175.80 target 178.50 stop 100p (-50-100p).
HSIN9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
18542 18438 18750 18338 18906 18594 19006 18168 18296 18435 18702 18830 18969
Commentary
Dalam chart 4 jam, indeks menunjukkan pola uptrend channel dan menunjukkan trend masih bullish jangka pendek setelah ditutup diatas 18,403 (23.6% FR). Indikator teknikal ADX meningkat dan stochastic crossing up, meski MACD masih berada di teritorial positif, menunjukkan potensi technical rebound lebih lanjut. Daily candle menunjukkan twezeer top, seharusnya mendukung laju kenaikan hari ini masih tetap kuat. Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks masih berada dalam wave c / (ii) dalam subwave motive (3) telah berakhir di di 19,100 dalam cycle B. Perkiraan range hari ini : 18.300-18.750
Rekomendasi : Buy 18410 target 18800 (or closing) stop 50 p. buy break 18650 target 18800 stop 100 poin. buy 17990 target 18400 stop 100p. Buy 17810 target 18200 stop 50p, Sell break 17770 target 17950 stop 60p.
Monday, June 29, 2009
Pernyataan China Mengenai Dolar AS, Picu Profit-Taking Posisi Long Euro & Pound
USD Index 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low EUR-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
80.10 89.62 (04/03) 78.59 (01/06) 1.4007 1.4337 (03/06) 1.2459 (04/03)
Dolar mengalami penguatan di sesi Asia hari ini terhadap mata uang utama dunia, setelah China menyatakan tidak akan merubah porsi mata uang asing dalam cadangan devisa dalam waktu dekat, meredakan kekhawatiran investor asing akan meninggalkan dolar AS. Dolar menguat terhadap 14 dari 16 mata uang utama setelah Gubernur bank sentral China (PBOC) Zhou Xiaochuan mengatakan kebijakan cadangan devisa dalam bentuk mata uang asing selalu cukup stabil, diikuti laporan Retail Sales Jepang anjlok untuk bulan ke-9 di bulan Mei, menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang aset yang memiliki yield yang lebih tinggi. Investor China yang merupakan pemegang Treasury terbesar di luar AS, memangkas kepemilikan sebesr $ 4.4 miliar menjadi US$ 763.5 miliar, setelah PM China Wen Jiaboao mengungkapkan kekhawatiran mengenai mbnilai aset dolar AS. Sebelumnya di hari Jumat, AS merilis personal income (+1.4%), U Michigan sentiment (70.8), saving rate (+1.7%). Strategis yang mengikuti survei Bloomberg memperlihatkan dolar AS akan menguat 17% terhadap euro di akhir tahun ini.
Euro melemah di sesi Asia hari ini, setelah Gubernur bank sentral China Zhou Xiaochuan mengatakan kebijakan cadangan devisa dalam bentuk mata uang asing tidak berubah, diikuti investor global melakukan risk aversion setelah data Retail Sales Jepang anjlok untuk bulan ke-9 di bulan Mei. Meski potensi pelemahan euro mungkin terbatas karena laporan dari zona euro yang akan menunjukkan keyakinan konsumen membaik, memberikan signal bank sentral Eropa (ECB) akan mempertahankan suku bunga di pekan ini. Consumer confidence zona euro diperkirakan menjadi minus 30 di bulan Juni dari minus 31 di bulan Mei, dan economic confidence diperkirakan meningkat ke 71 dari 69.3 di bulan Mei. Sebelumnya di pekan lalu, anggota dewan ECB Axel Webber mengatakan ECB telah menggunakan peluang untuk menurunkan suku bunga. Pada pekan ini, pasar akan mengamati data inflasi, consumer confidence dan pertemuan ECB yang diperkirakan menahan suku bunga 1.0%.
USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
95.50 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.6452 1.6661 (03/06) 1.3502 (23/01)
Yen melemah terhadap dolar di sesi Asia hari ini, setelah China menyatakan keyakinan terhadap dolar AS sebagai status cadangan devisa dalam bentuk mata uang asing yang meredam kekhawatiran terhadap isu diversifikasi cadangan devisa negara BRIC, diikuti data Retail Sales Jepang bulan anjlok 2.8% untuk bulan ke-9 meski Industrial Production Jepang meningkat 5.9% m/m di bulan Mei. Sebelumnya yen di akhir pekan lalu, melemah, berkat tekanan untuk dolar yang berasal dari sejumlah faktor, seperti China meninkatkan kekhawatiran terhadap pembentukan cadangan devisa dalam bentuk mata uang asing super-sovereign, risk appetite meningkat setelah laporan ekonomi AS tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan dan yield Treasury AS merosot ke level terendah mingguan menurunkan daya tarik dolar. Pekan ini pasar mengamati sejumlah data ekonomi, termasuk pertemuan bank sentral Eropa dan payroll AS hari Kamis, menjelang liburan di AS (03/07)
Pound sterling melemah terhadap euro dan dolar di sesi Asia hari ini, setelah pernyataan dari setelah China mengatakan kebijakan cadangan devisa dalam bentuk mata uang asing tidak berubah diikuti terkoreksinya harga komoditi dan saham global yang menurunkan daya tarik untuk mata uang yang memiliki yield yang lebih tinggi. Pound mengalami penurunan mingguan pertama di pekan lalu setelah Gubernur Bank of England Mervyn King mengatakan pemulihan ekonomi Inggris dari reseso akan melambat dan “tidak pasti.” Chief Economist BOE Spencer Dale pada 23 Juni mengatakan pelemahan pound akan membuat aset Inggris lebih menarik untuk investor asing. BOE juga mengatakan kerugian institusi finansial berpotensi memicu gelombang guncangan lebih lanjut, termasuk resesi ekonomi masih berada dalam resesi. Pekan ini Inggris akan merilis revisi GDP Final Q1 (perkiraan -2.2%).
KIE 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
10,220 12,150 (02/03) 9,900 (05/06) 0.8015 0.8263 (03/06) 0.6248 (02/02)
Kontrak Indeks Emas (USD-IDR) di sesi Asia hari ini menguat ke Rp 10,245, setelah China mengatakan kebijakan cadangan devisa dalam bentuk mata uang asing tidak berubah, dibandingkan target kami di Rp 10.000 di pekan ini, bahkan dapat mencapai target support di 9,800, karena kuatnya sentimen positif dari dalam dan luar negeri, dimana daya tarik untuk dolar AS dapat memudar di pekan ini, berkat kekhawatiran isu rating kredit AS terancam untuk diturunkan dalam waktu dekat dan pernyataan China yang mendesak IMF membuat mata uang untuk cadangan devisa global menandingi dolar AS. Masih tingginya capital inflow ke pasar aset domestik, mengantisipasi penurunan inflasi (Rabu) dan BI Rate (Jumat; -25 bsp menjadi 6.75%) dan penerbitan Samurai Bond sebesar US$ 1 miliar dalam waktu dekat. KIE melemah 1.8% menjadi Rp 10,220. Spekulasi window dressing oleh fund manager lokal maupun asing di pasar saham di akhir semester 1 yang terbatas dan perkiraan data tenaga kerja AS akan menunjukkan hasil lebih lemah dari periode sebelumnya dapat menahan laju pelemahan KIE pekan ini. Perkiraan range hingga besok siang: 10,150-10,300.
Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) melemah terhadap dolar dan yen untuk pertama kali dalam 5 hari terakhir setelah China mengatakan kebijakan cadangan devisa dalam bentuk mata uang asing tidak berubah, meningkatkan permintaan untuk dolar AS. Aussie dan kiwi melanjutkan penurunan setelah laporan Jepang menunjukkan output industri Jepang tercatat dibawah perkiraan pasar dan penjualan ritel Jepang anjlok di bulan Mei. Aussie berpotensi mengalami rekor penguatan kuartalan di kuartal ini, menguat 16% dan kiwi menguat paling banyak sejak kenaikan 16.6% di kuartal ketiga 1985 karena investor membeli aset di kedua negara karena yield mereka lebih tinggi dan bertaruh resesi global yang terburuk telah berakhir.
Technical Analysis
(+40p). Trend bullish jangka pendek EURUSD masih aman karena masih berada dalam uptrend channel selama mempertahankan support line di 1.3830, didukung indikator MACD bullish, Stochastic crossing up, ADX meningkat, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan laju kenaikan lebih lanjut. Pola H&S dengan neckline di 1.3731, jika tembus dapat picu penurunan ke target 1.3419. Hitungan Elliot wave euro dolar dalam proses wave b dalam wave minor ii - sub wave intermediate 4. Support di 1.3925 (trendline support)/1.3825 (low). Resistance di 1.4170 (upper channel)/1.4196 (projection 100 FE). Buy 1.3880 & 1.3920 target di 1.4150 stop 60p, buy 1.3750 target 1.4000 stop 60p, sell 1.4125/1.4150 target 1.3900 stop 60p. Sell break 1.3700 target 1.4000 stop 50p.
(Hold buy 95.80 target 97.70 stop 94.80) USDJPY masih berada dalam owntrend channel, dimana candle daily menunjukkan pola long bearish, didukung oleh indikator ADX meningkat dan MACD bearish, stochastic bearish, seharusnya mendukung potensi penurunan hari ini. Support berada di 94.87 (low 23/06)/94.13 (trendline support). Trend bearish karena ditutup dibawah 95.83(10 MA)/96.06 (200 MA). Resistance berada di 96.31 (upper channel)/96.61 (projeksi 61.8 FE). Buy 95.00 target 97.10 stop 60p, sell 97.10 target 96.00 stop diatas 97.80, sell 98.70 target 97.00 stop 50p. buy 94.20 target 97.50 stop di 94.00.
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80.10 89.62 (04/03) 78.59 (01/06) 1.4007 1.4337 (03/06) 1.2459 (04/03)
Dolar mengalami penguatan di sesi Asia hari ini terhadap mata uang utama dunia, setelah China menyatakan tidak akan merubah porsi mata uang asing dalam cadangan devisa dalam waktu dekat, meredakan kekhawatiran investor asing akan meninggalkan dolar AS. Dolar menguat terhadap 14 dari 16 mata uang utama setelah Gubernur bank sentral China (PBOC) Zhou Xiaochuan mengatakan kebijakan cadangan devisa dalam bentuk mata uang asing selalu cukup stabil, diikuti laporan Retail Sales Jepang anjlok untuk bulan ke-9 di bulan Mei, menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang aset yang memiliki yield yang lebih tinggi. Investor China yang merupakan pemegang Treasury terbesar di luar AS, memangkas kepemilikan sebesr $ 4.4 miliar menjadi US$ 763.5 miliar, setelah PM China Wen Jiaboao mengungkapkan kekhawatiran mengenai mbnilai aset dolar AS. Sebelumnya di hari Jumat, AS merilis personal income (+1.4%), U Michigan sentiment (70.8), saving rate (+1.7%). Strategis yang mengikuti survei Bloomberg memperlihatkan dolar AS akan menguat 17% terhadap euro di akhir tahun ini.
Euro melemah di sesi Asia hari ini, setelah Gubernur bank sentral China Zhou Xiaochuan mengatakan kebijakan cadangan devisa dalam bentuk mata uang asing tidak berubah, diikuti investor global melakukan risk aversion setelah data Retail Sales Jepang anjlok untuk bulan ke-9 di bulan Mei. Meski potensi pelemahan euro mungkin terbatas karena laporan dari zona euro yang akan menunjukkan keyakinan konsumen membaik, memberikan signal bank sentral Eropa (ECB) akan mempertahankan suku bunga di pekan ini. Consumer confidence zona euro diperkirakan menjadi minus 30 di bulan Juni dari minus 31 di bulan Mei, dan economic confidence diperkirakan meningkat ke 71 dari 69.3 di bulan Mei. Sebelumnya di pekan lalu, anggota dewan ECB Axel Webber mengatakan ECB telah menggunakan peluang untuk menurunkan suku bunga. Pada pekan ini, pasar akan mengamati data inflasi, consumer confidence dan pertemuan ECB yang diperkirakan menahan suku bunga 1.0%.
USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
95.50 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.6452 1.6661 (03/06) 1.3502 (23/01)
Yen melemah terhadap dolar di sesi Asia hari ini, setelah China menyatakan keyakinan terhadap dolar AS sebagai status cadangan devisa dalam bentuk mata uang asing yang meredam kekhawatiran terhadap isu diversifikasi cadangan devisa negara BRIC, diikuti data Retail Sales Jepang bulan anjlok 2.8% untuk bulan ke-9 meski Industrial Production Jepang meningkat 5.9% m/m di bulan Mei. Sebelumnya yen di akhir pekan lalu, melemah, berkat tekanan untuk dolar yang berasal dari sejumlah faktor, seperti China meninkatkan kekhawatiran terhadap pembentukan cadangan devisa dalam bentuk mata uang asing super-sovereign, risk appetite meningkat setelah laporan ekonomi AS tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan dan yield Treasury AS merosot ke level terendah mingguan menurunkan daya tarik dolar. Pekan ini pasar mengamati sejumlah data ekonomi, termasuk pertemuan bank sentral Eropa dan payroll AS hari Kamis, menjelang liburan di AS (03/07)
Pound sterling melemah terhadap euro dan dolar di sesi Asia hari ini, setelah pernyataan dari setelah China mengatakan kebijakan cadangan devisa dalam bentuk mata uang asing tidak berubah diikuti terkoreksinya harga komoditi dan saham global yang menurunkan daya tarik untuk mata uang yang memiliki yield yang lebih tinggi. Pound mengalami penurunan mingguan pertama di pekan lalu setelah Gubernur Bank of England Mervyn King mengatakan pemulihan ekonomi Inggris dari reseso akan melambat dan “tidak pasti.” Chief Economist BOE Spencer Dale pada 23 Juni mengatakan pelemahan pound akan membuat aset Inggris lebih menarik untuk investor asing. BOE juga mengatakan kerugian institusi finansial berpotensi memicu gelombang guncangan lebih lanjut, termasuk resesi ekonomi masih berada dalam resesi. Pekan ini Inggris akan merilis revisi GDP Final Q1 (perkiraan -2.2%).
KIE 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
10,220 12,150 (02/03) 9,900 (05/06) 0.8015 0.8263 (03/06) 0.6248 (02/02)
Kontrak Indeks Emas (USD-IDR) di sesi Asia hari ini menguat ke Rp 10,245, setelah China mengatakan kebijakan cadangan devisa dalam bentuk mata uang asing tidak berubah, dibandingkan target kami di Rp 10.000 di pekan ini, bahkan dapat mencapai target support di 9,800, karena kuatnya sentimen positif dari dalam dan luar negeri, dimana daya tarik untuk dolar AS dapat memudar di pekan ini, berkat kekhawatiran isu rating kredit AS terancam untuk diturunkan dalam waktu dekat dan pernyataan China yang mendesak IMF membuat mata uang untuk cadangan devisa global menandingi dolar AS. Masih tingginya capital inflow ke pasar aset domestik, mengantisipasi penurunan inflasi (Rabu) dan BI Rate (Jumat; -25 bsp menjadi 6.75%) dan penerbitan Samurai Bond sebesar US$ 1 miliar dalam waktu dekat. KIE melemah 1.8% menjadi Rp 10,220. Spekulasi window dressing oleh fund manager lokal maupun asing di pasar saham di akhir semester 1 yang terbatas dan perkiraan data tenaga kerja AS akan menunjukkan hasil lebih lemah dari periode sebelumnya dapat menahan laju pelemahan KIE pekan ini. Perkiraan range hingga besok siang: 10,150-10,300.
Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) melemah terhadap dolar dan yen untuk pertama kali dalam 5 hari terakhir setelah China mengatakan kebijakan cadangan devisa dalam bentuk mata uang asing tidak berubah, meningkatkan permintaan untuk dolar AS. Aussie dan kiwi melanjutkan penurunan setelah laporan Jepang menunjukkan output industri Jepang tercatat dibawah perkiraan pasar dan penjualan ritel Jepang anjlok di bulan Mei. Aussie berpotensi mengalami rekor penguatan kuartalan di kuartal ini, menguat 16% dan kiwi menguat paling banyak sejak kenaikan 16.6% di kuartal ketiga 1985 karena investor membeli aset di kedua negara karena yield mereka lebih tinggi dan bertaruh resesi global yang terburuk telah berakhir.
Technical Analysis
(+40p). Trend bullish jangka pendek EURUSD masih aman karena masih berada dalam uptrend channel selama mempertahankan support line di 1.3830, didukung indikator MACD bullish, Stochastic crossing up, ADX meningkat, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan laju kenaikan lebih lanjut. Pola H&S dengan neckline di 1.3731, jika tembus dapat picu penurunan ke target 1.3419. Hitungan Elliot wave euro dolar dalam proses wave b dalam wave minor ii - sub wave intermediate 4. Support di 1.3925 (trendline support)/1.3825 (low). Resistance di 1.4170 (upper channel)/1.4196 (projection 100 FE). Buy 1.3880 & 1.3920 target di 1.4150 stop 60p, buy 1.3750 target 1.4000 stop 60p, sell 1.4125/1.4150 target 1.3900 stop 60p. Sell break 1.3700 target 1.4000 stop 50p.
(Hold buy 95.80 target 97.70 stop 94.80) USDJPY masih berada dalam owntrend channel, dimana candle daily menunjukkan pola long bearish, didukung oleh indikator ADX meningkat dan MACD bearish, stochastic bearish, seharusnya mendukung potensi penurunan hari ini. Support berada di 94.87 (low 23/06)/94.13 (trendline support). Trend bearish karena ditutup dibawah 95.83(10 MA)/96.06 (200 MA). Resistance berada di 96.31 (upper channel)/96.61 (projeksi 61.8 FE). Buy 95.00 target 97.10 stop 60p, sell 97.10 target 96.00 stop diatas 97.80, sell 98.70 target 97.00 stop 50p. buy 94.20 target 97.50 stop di 94.00.
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Recovery Seen in Second Half—but Will Stocks Care?
By: Patti Domm
Executive Editor
Stocks enter the second half of the year with trepidation, despite the fact that the economy may finally start to show real signs of recovery. The coming week marks a turning point for the market, which so far shows a solid gain for the second quarter of about 15 percent for the S&P 500 and nearly 20 percent for the Nasdaq. The Dow is up about 11 percent. If the quarter closes out at these levels Tuesday, it will be the first time since fourth quarter, 2003 that all three indices scored double digit gains and the first time since third quarter, 2007 that they finished positive. All but the Dow have gained on the year. The week also bridges the tail end of the second quarter and the first days of the third quarter, which economists mostly expect to be markedly better than the second quarter and some even see turning positive.
A few key pieces of economic data are due, unusual for the typically quiet, holiday-shortened Fourth of July week. The June employment report is likely to show unemployment creeping closer to double digits when it is released Thursday. ISM manufacturing data, consumer confidence and monthly auto sales for June are also expected.There will be little earnings news, but analysts say it is possible some companies could pre announce their second quarter reports. Not a market mover, but of big interest Monday will be the sentencing of ponzi scammer Bernard Madoff.
Stocks could stay stalled next week in continued light volume trading, traders say. "If you've got a mindset by a majority of the market participants that we've got to see a pullback before you put new money to work, what we've got to see is significant positive catalysts, either in the economic data or earnings reports," said Art Hogan of Jefferies. "I would argue we're going to go through an earnings season where corporate America comes out and sees an outlook that's much more robust."
Economic data in the past week included some positive surprises, including the durable goods report which showed an increase of 1.8 percent, instead of an anticipated decline. Yet, the stock market had its ups and downs but was mostly sideways on the week as traders worry the economic recovery will be weak at best and could even tilt downward again."Typically, the market is forward pricing and looks out six months. Now, it's not. It's looking about three months at best," Hogan said.
Economists expect to see the loss of about 370,000 nonfarm jobs and an unemployment rate of 9.6 percent when the government employment report is released Thursday. ISM is expected to come in at 44.9, compared to 42.8 in the prior month."We're expecting negative 400,000, and it's partly technical," said Citigroup economist Steven Wieting of the nonfarm payrolls. "For one thing, you have both the auto makers substantially not producing in the month of June, incrementally down from the month of May, and you have the temporary census workers rolling off, so the two are about 80,000."But Wieting said other data expected in the next couple of days could start to show that the economy is beginning to turn, and he and other economists see a pick up coming in industrial production
Wieting said ISM, to be reported Wednesday, will be very important. "The surprising thing about the ISM report in May is the fact that, in the face of the auto industry cuts, you saw the new orders above 50," he said. "The fact the orders continued to improve in the face of this industry hit was constructive.""I think we're going to see better readings by July. I'll put myself out there and say July will be a better month than June for a lot of economic data," he said. "We are seeing a lot of things. There is an auto maker taking production back up. Orders data for the past two months is a lot better than shipments." Chrysler Monday is reopening manufacturing plants and Wieting said restarting auto production is one thing that will help give the economy a kick, but it's not the only thing. "You're going to see the first industrial production gain in 2009 in July," he said.
Wieting said the early signs of improvement mean that third quarter GDP could actually be positive. "From what we're seeing, we think the third quarter will have to be up some," he said. He forecasts a 0.5 percent growth rate. "Broad employment is highly correlated to the production cycle...only one third of it is manufacturing jobs. We don't think production gains are going to be profound. you can still lose jobs while we are growing production," he said.
JPMorgan economist Bruce Kasman, in a note, pointed to the expected annualized increase in Asian production of 30 percent for second quarter, the sharpest jump ever in his 15 years of history for the data. "We are now projecting U.S. and Euro area industrial output to rise at an 8 percent and 4 percent pace, respectively in 3Q09." Kasman expects a 2.5 percent rate of GDP growth and a further drawdown of inventory through the summer months. However, in order for manufacturing improvements to be sustainable, they must be accompanied by real improvement in final demand.
Whither Stocks
Barry Knapp, Barclays Capital head of U.S. equity portfolio strategy, said he thinks the stock market could stay range bound for a bit longer. He said there could be a move higher with some good earnings improvements and a decent pickup in industrial production, but it's likely to finish the year around current levels. For the most part, he expects to see a weak earnings recovery. "We might be in a little bit of a dead spot, between when the economy bottoms out and when it starts to pick up. It might be middle to late third quarter before it starts to pick up," said Knapp.
The stock market's performance since early March has been typical of a recovery rally, with gains in small caps and financials and consumer discretionary stocks taking the lead. Since 1973, the average 12 months earnings recovery for the financials and discretionary stocks have been 55 and 64 percent, respectively, said Knapp.However, he said investors may want to look elsewhere for gains after big run ups in the two sectors. "We've been getting increasingly cautious on the (consumer discretionary) sector. I think before too long, you get neutral or even cautious. Without evidence of top line growth, I think investors are going to be disinterested. We've seen a lot of interest in shorting the sector by hedge funds and others," he said. Knapp said his favorite sector is tech. "The story with tech is cyclical and secular. Inventories are under control. Balance sheets are pristine," he said. He also likes health care. "Generally speaking, health care looks cheap, and I like the idea of betting the government will be ineffectual, and grandiose change won't happen," he said, adding the sector does have its problem areas, like the insurers.
Four of the top five performing Dow stocks year-to-date are tech companies: IBM [IBM 105.68 -0.38 (-0.36%) ], Microsoft [MSFT 23.35 -0.44 (-1.85%) ], Cisco [CSCO 18.91 -0.12 (-0.63%) ] and Intel [INTC 16.29 -0.02 (-0.12%) ].He said he is flat in industrials and underweight right now in energy and materials. "We've gotten about a 10 percent pull back in industrials, materials and energy and that could continue. I'm calling it a mini growth scare," he said.
"Our commodities guys think a lot of the surge in commodities in the first quarter was attributable to China stockpiling," he said. "...If there's going to be another leg higher in commodities, it's going to be from recovery in the U.S. and Europe. It's going to be highly correlated to when industrial production improves in the U.S. and in Europe."In fact, Potash [INTC 16.29 -0.02 (-0.12%) ], one of those in the commodities-related group, cut its second quarter outlook late Thursday. It blamed weaker sales volumes as a result of dererrals of purchases by customers around the world.
Options Action
If the options market is any indication, it could be a slow summer for stocks.
"We're seeing definitely higher volatility in September and October options than we are in July and August. What the options are implying right now is that near-term, it's going to be relativel quiet," said Patrick Kernan, who trades S&P 500 options at the CBOE.Kernan said the options don't show big bets either way. "It's a more neutral bias, than a big bear or big bull bet," he said.
Stocks, for the most part, were down slightly in the past week, the second week of losses. The S&P 500 was down 0.25 percent, at 918. The Dow finished the week 1.2 percent lower at 8438. Nasdaq though was higher, up 0.6 percent at 1838 on a move up in tech. The best performing sectors for the week were telecom, up 3.7 percent and health care, up 2.8 percent. The "recovery" plays were the weakest. Energy was off 2.7 percent, followed by financials, off 1.3 percent, and industrials and materials, both off about 1 percent. The S&P tech sector was up 0.2 percent on the week.
Dollar Dilemma
The dollar fell 0.9 percent against the euro in the past week, to a level of $1.407. It was down 1 percent against the yen. "Next week, I'd have to reckon with a break to the downside for the dollar," said Brian Dolan, chief strategist at Forex.com. Dolan said there are a few events currency markets are watching in addition to U.S. jobs data. On Tuesday, Germany releases its unemployment data; Japan's Tankan report is released Wednesday, and the ECB releases jobs data Thursday. Also on Thursday, the European Central Bank meets but, it is expected to take no action on rates. ECB President Jean Claude Trichet speaks after the meeting.
Dolan said he believes the dollar will ultimately trend higher, but he believes it will first make another move lower against the euro. "I think the dollar will bottom more as the process of euro weakness, more than anything else," he said.He expects the euro to break $143.50, then move as high as $146. "Our stimulus will be hitting more concretely in the second half," he said. "..We think there's a floor here at 3.5 percent on the 10 year and rates are going to move higher, and that will be dollar supportive," he said.Traders in the Treasury market were expecting a fairly quiet week until the jobs report is released. There are no note auctions until the week after next, when the government auctions 10-years and the 30-year bond.
Oil Drill
John Kilduff, senior vice president at M.F. Global said the trend for oil should be higher in the coming week. "It will likely move higher once again. There has to be a catch up in valuation on the dollar's decline. I don't think this Nigerian cease fire will be embraced by the rebels. I don't think the Nigerian output is coming back on line any time soon. They've lost now more than half of their output," he said.Oil [US@CL.1 69.2 0.04 (+0.06%) ] finished the week down 1.2 percent at $69.16 per barrel. Gold rose 0.6 percent for the week to $940.70, and copper added 2.1 percent to $2.2935 per pound.
Econorama
Other data expected in the week ahead includes the S&P/Case Shiller home price index Tuesday and pending home sales on Wednesday. Chicago purchasing managers and consumer confidence are also reported Tuesday. Wednesday's data includes the ADP employment report, construction spending and monthly auto sales. On Thursday, in addition to the jobs data, weekly jobless claims are reported as are factory orders.
Executive Editor
Stocks enter the second half of the year with trepidation, despite the fact that the economy may finally start to show real signs of recovery. The coming week marks a turning point for the market, which so far shows a solid gain for the second quarter of about 15 percent for the S&P 500 and nearly 20 percent for the Nasdaq. The Dow is up about 11 percent. If the quarter closes out at these levels Tuesday, it will be the first time since fourth quarter, 2003 that all three indices scored double digit gains and the first time since third quarter, 2007 that they finished positive. All but the Dow have gained on the year. The week also bridges the tail end of the second quarter and the first days of the third quarter, which economists mostly expect to be markedly better than the second quarter and some even see turning positive.
A few key pieces of economic data are due, unusual for the typically quiet, holiday-shortened Fourth of July week. The June employment report is likely to show unemployment creeping closer to double digits when it is released Thursday. ISM manufacturing data, consumer confidence and monthly auto sales for June are also expected.There will be little earnings news, but analysts say it is possible some companies could pre announce their second quarter reports. Not a market mover, but of big interest Monday will be the sentencing of ponzi scammer Bernard Madoff.
Stocks could stay stalled next week in continued light volume trading, traders say. "If you've got a mindset by a majority of the market participants that we've got to see a pullback before you put new money to work, what we've got to see is significant positive catalysts, either in the economic data or earnings reports," said Art Hogan of Jefferies. "I would argue we're going to go through an earnings season where corporate America comes out and sees an outlook that's much more robust."
Economic data in the past week included some positive surprises, including the durable goods report which showed an increase of 1.8 percent, instead of an anticipated decline. Yet, the stock market had its ups and downs but was mostly sideways on the week as traders worry the economic recovery will be weak at best and could even tilt downward again."Typically, the market is forward pricing and looks out six months. Now, it's not. It's looking about three months at best," Hogan said.
Economists expect to see the loss of about 370,000 nonfarm jobs and an unemployment rate of 9.6 percent when the government employment report is released Thursday. ISM is expected to come in at 44.9, compared to 42.8 in the prior month."We're expecting negative 400,000, and it's partly technical," said Citigroup economist Steven Wieting of the nonfarm payrolls. "For one thing, you have both the auto makers substantially not producing in the month of June, incrementally down from the month of May, and you have the temporary census workers rolling off, so the two are about 80,000."But Wieting said other data expected in the next couple of days could start to show that the economy is beginning to turn, and he and other economists see a pick up coming in industrial production
Wieting said ISM, to be reported Wednesday, will be very important. "The surprising thing about the ISM report in May is the fact that, in the face of the auto industry cuts, you saw the new orders above 50," he said. "The fact the orders continued to improve in the face of this industry hit was constructive.""I think we're going to see better readings by July. I'll put myself out there and say July will be a better month than June for a lot of economic data," he said. "We are seeing a lot of things. There is an auto maker taking production back up. Orders data for the past two months is a lot better than shipments." Chrysler Monday is reopening manufacturing plants and Wieting said restarting auto production is one thing that will help give the economy a kick, but it's not the only thing. "You're going to see the first industrial production gain in 2009 in July," he said.
Wieting said the early signs of improvement mean that third quarter GDP could actually be positive. "From what we're seeing, we think the third quarter will have to be up some," he said. He forecasts a 0.5 percent growth rate. "Broad employment is highly correlated to the production cycle...only one third of it is manufacturing jobs. We don't think production gains are going to be profound. you can still lose jobs while we are growing production," he said.
JPMorgan economist Bruce Kasman, in a note, pointed to the expected annualized increase in Asian production of 30 percent for second quarter, the sharpest jump ever in his 15 years of history for the data. "We are now projecting U.S. and Euro area industrial output to rise at an 8 percent and 4 percent pace, respectively in 3Q09." Kasman expects a 2.5 percent rate of GDP growth and a further drawdown of inventory through the summer months. However, in order for manufacturing improvements to be sustainable, they must be accompanied by real improvement in final demand.
Whither Stocks
Barry Knapp, Barclays Capital head of U.S. equity portfolio strategy, said he thinks the stock market could stay range bound for a bit longer. He said there could be a move higher with some good earnings improvements and a decent pickup in industrial production, but it's likely to finish the year around current levels. For the most part, he expects to see a weak earnings recovery. "We might be in a little bit of a dead spot, between when the economy bottoms out and when it starts to pick up. It might be middle to late third quarter before it starts to pick up," said Knapp.
The stock market's performance since early March has been typical of a recovery rally, with gains in small caps and financials and consumer discretionary stocks taking the lead. Since 1973, the average 12 months earnings recovery for the financials and discretionary stocks have been 55 and 64 percent, respectively, said Knapp.However, he said investors may want to look elsewhere for gains after big run ups in the two sectors. "We've been getting increasingly cautious on the (consumer discretionary) sector. I think before too long, you get neutral or even cautious. Without evidence of top line growth, I think investors are going to be disinterested. We've seen a lot of interest in shorting the sector by hedge funds and others," he said. Knapp said his favorite sector is tech. "The story with tech is cyclical and secular. Inventories are under control. Balance sheets are pristine," he said. He also likes health care. "Generally speaking, health care looks cheap, and I like the idea of betting the government will be ineffectual, and grandiose change won't happen," he said, adding the sector does have its problem areas, like the insurers.
Four of the top five performing Dow stocks year-to-date are tech companies: IBM [IBM 105.68 -0.38 (-0.36%) ], Microsoft [MSFT 23.35 -0.44 (-1.85%) ], Cisco [CSCO 18.91 -0.12 (-0.63%) ] and Intel [INTC 16.29 -0.02 (-0.12%) ].He said he is flat in industrials and underweight right now in energy and materials. "We've gotten about a 10 percent pull back in industrials, materials and energy and that could continue. I'm calling it a mini growth scare," he said.
"Our commodities guys think a lot of the surge in commodities in the first quarter was attributable to China stockpiling," he said. "...If there's going to be another leg higher in commodities, it's going to be from recovery in the U.S. and Europe. It's going to be highly correlated to when industrial production improves in the U.S. and in Europe."In fact, Potash [INTC 16.29 -0.02 (-0.12%) ], one of those in the commodities-related group, cut its second quarter outlook late Thursday. It blamed weaker sales volumes as a result of dererrals of purchases by customers around the world.
Options Action
If the options market is any indication, it could be a slow summer for stocks.
"We're seeing definitely higher volatility in September and October options than we are in July and August. What the options are implying right now is that near-term, it's going to be relativel quiet," said Patrick Kernan, who trades S&P 500 options at the CBOE.Kernan said the options don't show big bets either way. "It's a more neutral bias, than a big bear or big bull bet," he said.
Stocks, for the most part, were down slightly in the past week, the second week of losses. The S&P 500 was down 0.25 percent, at 918. The Dow finished the week 1.2 percent lower at 8438. Nasdaq though was higher, up 0.6 percent at 1838 on a move up in tech. The best performing sectors for the week were telecom, up 3.7 percent and health care, up 2.8 percent. The "recovery" plays were the weakest. Energy was off 2.7 percent, followed by financials, off 1.3 percent, and industrials and materials, both off about 1 percent. The S&P tech sector was up 0.2 percent on the week.
Dollar Dilemma
The dollar fell 0.9 percent against the euro in the past week, to a level of $1.407. It was down 1 percent against the yen. "Next week, I'd have to reckon with a break to the downside for the dollar," said Brian Dolan, chief strategist at Forex.com. Dolan said there are a few events currency markets are watching in addition to U.S. jobs data. On Tuesday, Germany releases its unemployment data; Japan's Tankan report is released Wednesday, and the ECB releases jobs data Thursday. Also on Thursday, the European Central Bank meets but, it is expected to take no action on rates. ECB President Jean Claude Trichet speaks after the meeting.
Dolan said he believes the dollar will ultimately trend higher, but he believes it will first make another move lower against the euro. "I think the dollar will bottom more as the process of euro weakness, more than anything else," he said.He expects the euro to break $143.50, then move as high as $146. "Our stimulus will be hitting more concretely in the second half," he said. "..We think there's a floor here at 3.5 percent on the 10 year and rates are going to move higher, and that will be dollar supportive," he said.Traders in the Treasury market were expecting a fairly quiet week until the jobs report is released. There are no note auctions until the week after next, when the government auctions 10-years and the 30-year bond.
Oil Drill
John Kilduff, senior vice president at M.F. Global said the trend for oil should be higher in the coming week. "It will likely move higher once again. There has to be a catch up in valuation on the dollar's decline. I don't think this Nigerian cease fire will be embraced by the rebels. I don't think the Nigerian output is coming back on line any time soon. They've lost now more than half of their output," he said.Oil [US@CL.1 69.2 0.04 (+0.06%) ] finished the week down 1.2 percent at $69.16 per barrel. Gold rose 0.6 percent for the week to $940.70, and copper added 2.1 percent to $2.2935 per pound.
Econorama
Other data expected in the week ahead includes the S&P/Case Shiller home price index Tuesday and pending home sales on Wednesday. Chicago purchasing managers and consumer confidence are also reported Tuesday. Wednesday's data includes the ADP employment report, construction spending and monthly auto sales. On Thursday, in addition to the jobs data, weekly jobless claims are reported as are factory orders.