By Robert Tuttle
Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Major U.S. equity indexes are poised to fall at least 10 percent after experiencing a “key reversal” by closing lower on the day they rose to nearly one- year highs, according to Chicago-based Technical Analytics Inc.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed to 1,080.15 on Sept. 23, the highest intraday level since Oct. 6, and then ended the day down 1 percent at 1,060.87. On the same day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to 9,917.99, the highest since Oct. 7, and ended the day down 0.8 percent at 9,748.55. The Nasdaq Composite climbed to 2,167.7, the highest since Sep. 26, 2008, and ended down 0.7 percent at 2,131.42.
“Make a new high and close lower than the previous day’s close, that’s a very bearish pattern,” Al Bicoff, the president of Technical Analytics, said in a telephone interview. “Conservatively, you could see a 10 percent correction from the key reversal.”. The indexes have fallen for three straight days since setting the intraday highs on Sept. 23. “Now the ball is rolling down the hill,” Bicoff said.
Saturday, September 26, 2009
Stocks turn to jobs woes, as new quarter starts
(MarketWatch) -- The stock market will start the coming week on edge about news from the job market, as investors turn to a new month and a new quarter seeking clues to whether the huge rally in stocks has gotten ahead of itself.A pull-back over the past week may have heightened some of those concerns, although stocks analysts are quick to point that most of the market's pull-backs have been pretty shallow and short-lived.
"A lot of people have been expecting that correction but the market just keeps on springing forward," says Dan Cook, senior market analyst at IG Markets.
On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) fell 42 points, or 0.4%, to 9,665. The S&P 500 index ($SPX) fell 6 points, or 0.6%, to 1,044, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) lost 16 points, or 0.8%, to 2,090.
A mixed batch of U.S. economic reports also weighed on Friday. Data on new-home sales and durable goods orders were weaker than expected, even as a gauge of consumer sentiment rose more than initially reported in September.
Check out the entire link below:
http://www.marketwatch.com/m/story/7a00c2de-3bc0-4bf3-9238-a97612866be4/0
"A lot of people have been expecting that correction but the market just keeps on springing forward," says Dan Cook, senior market analyst at IG Markets.
On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) fell 42 points, or 0.4%, to 9,665. The S&P 500 index ($SPX) fell 6 points, or 0.6%, to 1,044, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) lost 16 points, or 0.8%, to 2,090.
A mixed batch of U.S. economic reports also weighed on Friday. Data on new-home sales and durable goods orders were weaker than expected, even as a gauge of consumer sentiment rose more than initially reported in September.
Check out the entire link below:
http://www.marketwatch.com/m/story/7a00c2de-3bc0-4bf3-9238-a97612866be4/0
Dear All Readers: From today (26/06/09). I will input my blog (globalmarketstrategist.blospot.com) with my own analysis, based on Fundamental Analysis, Flowtist, Technical Analysis, Rumors on stocks (JKSE & local stocks), stock index futures (Nikkei, Kospi, Hang Seng), Forex (EUR-USD, USD-JPY, GBP-USD, AUD-USD, USD-IDR), Commodity (Crude oil, gold, nickel, cpo, tin). May it helpful for you all. Good Luck. Happy cuan. Disc on.
Friday, September 25, 2009
Stocks at Least 4 Years Away From Highs, Yamada Says
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks are two-thirds of the way through a “structural bear market” and will take at least four years to surpass their record levels of October 2007, technical analyst Louise Yamada said. The stock market is likely to alternate between cyclical, or shorter-term, bull and bear markets over that period, Yamada, managing director of Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors LLC in New York, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview. A bull market is commonly defined as a 20 percent rally from a low, and a bear market is started by a 20 percent drop from a high.
“The profile of the next four years is about eight cyclical moves,” Yamada said. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s 12-year low in March “may well prove to be the pivot low, but that doesn’t mean we’re going to be roaring off in a new bull market yet. There’s a lot of repair that has to take place following that kind of a decline.”
The main benchmark for American equities fell 57 percent from its all-time high in October 2007 through March 9 as the collapse of the subprime mortgage market froze credit and sparked the first global recession since World War II. The index has rebounded 55 percent since, leaving it 49 percent below its peak, on signs the contraction may be ending.The U.S. dollar, which traded at a 13-month low against a basket of six major currencies including the euro and the yen this week, will continue to decline, Yamada said.“We don’t have great hope for the dollar in the long term,” she said. “Growth driven by high levels of business investment leads to currency strength, but growth driven by strong consumption and government spending, which is what we’re doing here in the U.S. now, leads to currency weakness, and somewhere that has to be reversed.”
Yamada founded her company in 2005 after Citigroup Inc. eliminated its technical research department, which she headed.
“The profile of the next four years is about eight cyclical moves,” Yamada said. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s 12-year low in March “may well prove to be the pivot low, but that doesn’t mean we’re going to be roaring off in a new bull market yet. There’s a lot of repair that has to take place following that kind of a decline.”
The main benchmark for American equities fell 57 percent from its all-time high in October 2007 through March 9 as the collapse of the subprime mortgage market froze credit and sparked the first global recession since World War II. The index has rebounded 55 percent since, leaving it 49 percent below its peak, on signs the contraction may be ending.The U.S. dollar, which traded at a 13-month low against a basket of six major currencies including the euro and the yen this week, will continue to decline, Yamada said.“We don’t have great hope for the dollar in the long term,” she said. “Growth driven by high levels of business investment leads to currency strength, but growth driven by strong consumption and government spending, which is what we’re doing here in the U.S. now, leads to currency weakness, and somewhere that has to be reversed.”
Yamada founded her company in 2005 after Citigroup Inc. eliminated its technical research department, which she headed.
Stocks Bear Market Pattern and the Battle for Financial Sphere Hegemony
By: Joseph_Russo
Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePROPHECY - Or plausible consideration of cyclical relationships, and fractal repetition
If one embraces the notion that cycles exist within economies and financial markets, and that, progressions within cycles are fractal and of various size and degree, one must then conclude there is a dynamic level of general repetition continuously occurring across various timeframes. The footprints of such fractal repetitions record themselves continuously via data points plotted across the axis of price and time. They do so through recorded price chart data gathered throughout the course of history. Furthermore, if one successfully employs and relies upon the use of price chart data to detect various trends in current market behavior, one is also likely to consider the utility in comparing similar relationships of past price pattern behavior with those of the present. Such endeavor provides a useful means by which to anticipate or narrow down a host of plausible future outcomes.
One such method is to employ the use of chart analogs that compare price behaviors of the past, which correspond best to those in the present. Analog an*a*log (noun) U.S CHEMISTRY A chemical with a similar structure to another but differing slightly in composition. Below is one such analog study of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePROPHECY - Or plausible consideration of cyclical relationships, and fractal repetition
If one embraces the notion that cycles exist within economies and financial markets, and that, progressions within cycles are fractal and of various size and degree, one must then conclude there is a dynamic level of general repetition continuously occurring across various timeframes. The footprints of such fractal repetitions record themselves continuously via data points plotted across the axis of price and time. They do so through recorded price chart data gathered throughout the course of history. Furthermore, if one successfully employs and relies upon the use of price chart data to detect various trends in current market behavior, one is also likely to consider the utility in comparing similar relationships of past price pattern behavior with those of the present. Such endeavor provides a useful means by which to anticipate or narrow down a host of plausible future outcomes.
One such method is to employ the use of chart analogs that compare price behaviors of the past, which correspond best to those in the present. Analog an*a*log (noun) U.S CHEMISTRY A chemical with a similar structure to another but differing slightly in composition. Below is one such analog study of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
GLOBAL MARKETS WEEKAHEAD-FX moves giving investors a headache
(Reuters) - Increasingly volatile currency moves are becoming a headache for largely-unhedged equity investors and corporates as markets prepare themselves for central banks to wind down super loose money conditions. The dollar hit a 13-month low against major currencies .DXY this week as risk-hungry investors dumped low-yielding assets, while sterling fell to its lowest in 6 months versus the euro EURGBP= after Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said a weaker currency was helping to rebalance the nation's economy.The timing of the "exit", or scaling back of emergency economic support, is key for investors of all asset classes as interest rates, which are near zero in many developed economies, will have to rise eventually to ease inflationary pressures.And policymakers may have already begun to take a step towards the exit. Major world central banks announced on Thursday they planned to wind down facilities allowing them to inject emergency tranches of U.S. dollars into their banks.
Events next week are set to bring more clues on exit policy as finance chiefs move from Pittsburgh to Istanbul to attend the IMF/World Bank meeting. The monthly U.S. employment report will update on the state of the U.S. economy. As the third quarter draws to an end, the MSCI world equity index .MIWD00000PUS have risen more than 16 percent since the start of July, gaining more than 25 percent -- recouping more than half of last year's losses.But on Friday the MSCI index hit a 1-1/2 week low. While some say this is a natural correction after a big rally, others warn investors are already getting prepared for an eventual rise in borrowing costs or growing nervous about currency moves."(Stable currency markets) had been quite helpful for risk appetites. People just felt a little bit more comfortable.
That disappeared," said Michael Dicks, head of research and investment strategy at Barclays Wealth."Wobbles in currencies and a lot of second-order issues associated with them got people worrying. There's real uncertainty coming into the policy setting. And this is making it harder work for the rally to be sustained."Dicks said U.S. and UK real estate markets enjoy high correlation but sharp currency moves could generate a shift in performance, a factor which could postpone investment decisions. According to Thomson Reuters data, the S&P 500 index .SPX has risen 16.3 percent in dollar terms, compared with less than 10 percent in euro terms.
Events next week are set to bring more clues on exit policy as finance chiefs move from Pittsburgh to Istanbul to attend the IMF/World Bank meeting. The monthly U.S. employment report will update on the state of the U.S. economy. As the third quarter draws to an end, the MSCI world equity index .MIWD00000PUS have risen more than 16 percent since the start of July, gaining more than 25 percent -- recouping more than half of last year's losses.But on Friday the MSCI index hit a 1-1/2 week low. While some say this is a natural correction after a big rally, others warn investors are already getting prepared for an eventual rise in borrowing costs or growing nervous about currency moves."(Stable currency markets) had been quite helpful for risk appetites. People just felt a little bit more comfortable.
That disappeared," said Michael Dicks, head of research and investment strategy at Barclays Wealth."Wobbles in currencies and a lot of second-order issues associated with them got people worrying. There's real uncertainty coming into the policy setting. And this is making it harder work for the rally to be sustained."Dicks said U.S. and UK real estate markets enjoy high correlation but sharp currency moves could generate a shift in performance, a factor which could postpone investment decisions. According to Thomson Reuters data, the S&P 500 index .SPX has risen 16.3 percent in dollar terms, compared with less than 10 percent in euro terms.
British Pound Undermined by the Bank of England, Sterling Bear Market Resumes
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England and Mervyn King's recent announcements in the mainstream press have clearly been aimed at sending the markets a signal that official policy favours a weak currency so as to support the economic recovery by boosting the export sector. The reaction in the markets was for a swift drop in the exchange rate across all major currencies and most notably against the Euro which triggered a fall of over 8% from the recent high of 1.20 to below 1.10
Following the fall in the Sterling to £/$ 1.62, Mervyn King stated :
“The fall in the exchange rate that we have seen will be helpful to that process but there’s no doubt that what we need to see now is a shift of resources into net exports – whether directly or in producing things that compete with imports.”
The resumption of the sterling bear market against all major currencies that are themselves engaged in a programme of competitive devaluation is inline with my analysis of the past 2 years following the peak of sterling in December 2007, that ever escalating measures to bailout the banks and stimulate an economy entering first recession and later depression would result in ever larger increase in the debt that tax payers would be lumbered with, far beyond that which the chancellor was estimating way back in November 2008, which prompted in depth analysis - Bankrupt Britain Trending Towards Hyper-Inflation?
The below debt and liabilities graphs illustrate the reasons why the sterling bear market has a long way to run which targets an eventual break below the 2008 low of £/$ 1.36.
The Bank of England and Mervyn King's recent announcements in the mainstream press have clearly been aimed at sending the markets a signal that official policy favours a weak currency so as to support the economic recovery by boosting the export sector. The reaction in the markets was for a swift drop in the exchange rate across all major currencies and most notably against the Euro which triggered a fall of over 8% from the recent high of 1.20 to below 1.10
Following the fall in the Sterling to £/$ 1.62, Mervyn King stated :
“The fall in the exchange rate that we have seen will be helpful to that process but there’s no doubt that what we need to see now is a shift of resources into net exports – whether directly or in producing things that compete with imports.”
The resumption of the sterling bear market against all major currencies that are themselves engaged in a programme of competitive devaluation is inline with my analysis of the past 2 years following the peak of sterling in December 2007, that ever escalating measures to bailout the banks and stimulate an economy entering first recession and later depression would result in ever larger increase in the debt that tax payers would be lumbered with, far beyond that which the chancellor was estimating way back in November 2008, which prompted in depth analysis - Bankrupt Britain Trending Towards Hyper-Inflation?
The below debt and liabilities graphs illustrate the reasons why the sterling bear market has a long way to run which targets an eventual break below the 2008 low of £/$ 1.36.
Five Hot New International ETFs To Consider
By: Ron_Rowland
Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleToday, much of the world’s economic growth is outside of the U.S. So for now at least, many (and maybe most) of the compelling investment opportunities are outside the U.S., too.But for years, Americans had a hard time gaining access to the smaller international markets. Try to buy a stock from, say, Jakarta, and most stockbrokers would hang up the phone! Opportunities in those places were available only to a select few investors.Exchange traded funds (ETFs) are solving this problem. Now you can diversify your portfolio into many hot, new markets with one simple trade on a U.S. exchange.
Let’s take a look at five, recently-launched international ETFs that can help you get off the beaten path …
International Opportunity #1: Market Vectors Vietnam (VNM)
Vietnam was a closed society for many years following the communist takeover. Now, much like China, it’s turning capitalist with a vengeance.
Vietnam is one of the world’s fastest-growing economies.
Vietnam is one of the world’s fastest-growing economies.
With a young population, a strategic location, and abundant natural resources, Vietnam is one of the world’s fastest-growing economies. The country exports rice, oil, cashew nuts, and black pepper. Privately owned businesses are thriving! And the industrial sector is growing fast.VNM gives you a slice of the local stock market, including financial, energy, industrial, and consumer companies. Risky? Yes, but the opportunities are huge as nearby China takes its place as a world economic superpower.
International Opportunity #2: Market Vectors Indonesia (IDX)
You might think that a country with the fourth-largest population in the world would be a little better known. Strangely, though, Indonesia isn’t on the radar screen for most U.S. investors. It should be …With more than 17,000 separate islands, the Indonesian archipelago straddles trade routes that have been important for centuries. And its many ethnic groups are united by a common language.Like Vietnam, Indonesia has a wealth of natural resources, including oil, natural gas, gold, copper, and a huge variety of agricultural goods. The vibrant internal market makes the country less dependent on exports than many Asian markets. In fact, Indonesia’s service sector is larger than its industrial and agricultural counterparts.
With IDX, you can buy into the Indonesia growth story quickly and easily. This ETF includes banks, telecom, energy, materials, and industrial stocks.
International Opportunity #3: iShares MSCI Peru (EPU)
Peru’s Machu Picchu was once a great Inca city.
Peru’s Machu Picchu was once a great Inca city.
Peru has some of the most varied terrain in the world — snow-capped Andes peaks, Amazonian jungles, coastal plains. And back before Columbus came along, Peru’s Inca were the largest civilization in the New World.Today Peru is a top metals producer. And EPU makes the most of that by investing heavily in companies that mine gold, copper, and other metals. What’s more, the government is working hard to diversify the economy, and it’s making good progress. A 2006 free trade agreement with the U.S. was a major step.When metals prices are rising, Peruvian markets tend to do well. EPU is a great tool to take advantage of those opportunities.
International Opportunity #4: Global X InterBolsa FTSE Colombia 20 (GXG)
Just north of Peru is Colombia, where ethnic diversity has produced a rich cultural heritage. It’s a country with plenty of risks — and enormous potential rewards.
Coffee is one of Colombia’s top exports.
Coffee is one of Colombia’s top exports.
President Alvaro Uribe and his government have made big steps in subduing Colombia’s illegal drug trade, expanding the economy, and strengthening relations with the U.S. and other trading partners. The result: One of the fastest economic growth rates in Latin America.GXG is a concentrated portfolio of mostly financial and energy stocks. Like all emerging markets ETFs, I expect a lot of volatility in GXG, but I also see a lot of potential. And although Colombia is booming, it still has plenty of room to grow.
International Opportunity #5: Global X FTSE Nordic 30 ETF (GXF)
The funds discussed above all cover a single country. But GXF is different in that it focuses on a region: The Nordic nations of northern Europe including Sweden, Denmark, Norway, and Finland.In contrast with Colombia, these Nordic nations are among the most stable in the world. The population is educated, multilingual, and prosperous. Are there challenges? Of course, but you can’t argue with results. And the results of the Nordic stock markets have been impressive indeed.GXF includes 30 companies from the region, with Sweden having the most weight at almost half the portfolio. The stocks in GXF do business around the world. So if you want both growth and stability, this ETF might be just what you need.
These five new ETFs give you tremendous opportunities for profit that you can’t find in regular mutual funds. They’re even more proof that ETFs are revolutionizing the way we invest.However, let me close today with a word of caution: Single-country international ETFs are always risky. And because they’re relatively new, trading volume can be rather thin. If you buy any of these funds, pick your entry point carefully, use a limit order, and be prepared to ride out some big swings. Also, don’t invest too much of your portfolio in one place.
Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleToday, much of the world’s economic growth is outside of the U.S. So for now at least, many (and maybe most) of the compelling investment opportunities are outside the U.S., too.But for years, Americans had a hard time gaining access to the smaller international markets. Try to buy a stock from, say, Jakarta, and most stockbrokers would hang up the phone! Opportunities in those places were available only to a select few investors.Exchange traded funds (ETFs) are solving this problem. Now you can diversify your portfolio into many hot, new markets with one simple trade on a U.S. exchange.
Let’s take a look at five, recently-launched international ETFs that can help you get off the beaten path …
International Opportunity #1: Market Vectors Vietnam (VNM)
Vietnam was a closed society for many years following the communist takeover. Now, much like China, it’s turning capitalist with a vengeance.
Vietnam is one of the world’s fastest-growing economies.
Vietnam is one of the world’s fastest-growing economies.
With a young population, a strategic location, and abundant natural resources, Vietnam is one of the world’s fastest-growing economies. The country exports rice, oil, cashew nuts, and black pepper. Privately owned businesses are thriving! And the industrial sector is growing fast.VNM gives you a slice of the local stock market, including financial, energy, industrial, and consumer companies. Risky? Yes, but the opportunities are huge as nearby China takes its place as a world economic superpower.
International Opportunity #2: Market Vectors Indonesia (IDX)
You might think that a country with the fourth-largest population in the world would be a little better known. Strangely, though, Indonesia isn’t on the radar screen for most U.S. investors. It should be …With more than 17,000 separate islands, the Indonesian archipelago straddles trade routes that have been important for centuries. And its many ethnic groups are united by a common language.Like Vietnam, Indonesia has a wealth of natural resources, including oil, natural gas, gold, copper, and a huge variety of agricultural goods. The vibrant internal market makes the country less dependent on exports than many Asian markets. In fact, Indonesia’s service sector is larger than its industrial and agricultural counterparts.
With IDX, you can buy into the Indonesia growth story quickly and easily. This ETF includes banks, telecom, energy, materials, and industrial stocks.
International Opportunity #3: iShares MSCI Peru (EPU)
Peru’s Machu Picchu was once a great Inca city.
Peru’s Machu Picchu was once a great Inca city.
Peru has some of the most varied terrain in the world — snow-capped Andes peaks, Amazonian jungles, coastal plains. And back before Columbus came along, Peru’s Inca were the largest civilization in the New World.Today Peru is a top metals producer. And EPU makes the most of that by investing heavily in companies that mine gold, copper, and other metals. What’s more, the government is working hard to diversify the economy, and it’s making good progress. A 2006 free trade agreement with the U.S. was a major step.When metals prices are rising, Peruvian markets tend to do well. EPU is a great tool to take advantage of those opportunities.
International Opportunity #4: Global X InterBolsa FTSE Colombia 20 (GXG)
Just north of Peru is Colombia, where ethnic diversity has produced a rich cultural heritage. It’s a country with plenty of risks — and enormous potential rewards.
Coffee is one of Colombia’s top exports.
Coffee is one of Colombia’s top exports.
President Alvaro Uribe and his government have made big steps in subduing Colombia’s illegal drug trade, expanding the economy, and strengthening relations with the U.S. and other trading partners. The result: One of the fastest economic growth rates in Latin America.GXG is a concentrated portfolio of mostly financial and energy stocks. Like all emerging markets ETFs, I expect a lot of volatility in GXG, but I also see a lot of potential. And although Colombia is booming, it still has plenty of room to grow.
International Opportunity #5: Global X FTSE Nordic 30 ETF (GXF)
The funds discussed above all cover a single country. But GXF is different in that it focuses on a region: The Nordic nations of northern Europe including Sweden, Denmark, Norway, and Finland.In contrast with Colombia, these Nordic nations are among the most stable in the world. The population is educated, multilingual, and prosperous. Are there challenges? Of course, but you can’t argue with results. And the results of the Nordic stock markets have been impressive indeed.GXF includes 30 companies from the region, with Sweden having the most weight at almost half the portfolio. The stocks in GXF do business around the world. So if you want both growth and stability, this ETF might be just what you need.
These five new ETFs give you tremendous opportunities for profit that you can’t find in regular mutual funds. They’re even more proof that ETFs are revolutionizing the way we invest.However, let me close today with a word of caution: Single-country international ETFs are always risky. And because they’re relatively new, trading volume can be rather thin. If you buy any of these funds, pick your entry point carefully, use a limit order, and be prepared to ride out some big swings. Also, don’t invest too much of your portfolio in one place.
Crude Oil May Decline Amid Rising Fuel Supplies, Survey Shows
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil futures may decline in anticipation of extended increases in U.S. fuel supplies as demand drops.Twenty-four of 44 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 55 percent, said futures will drop through Oct. 2. Seven respondents, or 16 percent, forecast that the market will rise and 13 said prices will be little changed. Last week, 38 percent of analysts said oil would fall.
“Prices, and especially refining margins, will continue to decline next week in light of swelling product inventories in the U.S. and Europe,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates LLC in Houston.
U.S. gasoline stockpiles surged 5.41 million barrels last week, more than 10 times what was forecast by analysts in a Bloomberg News survey, according to an Energy Department report on Sept. 23. Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, rose 2.96 million barrels, almost double what was estimated.
U.S. fuel consumption dropped 3.3 percent to 18.5 million barrels a day, the lowest since the week ended June 26. Gasoline use slipped 2.3 percent to 8.79 million barrels a day, the lowest since January.Crude oil for November delivery fell $6.60, or 9.1 percent, to $65.89 a barrel this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil has climbed 48 percent this year and has slipped 55 percent from a record $147.27 reached on July 11, 2008.
The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 47 percent of the time since its start in April 2004.
Bloomberg’s survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted
each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil
futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming
week. The results were:
RISE NEUTRAL FALL
7 13 24
“Prices, and especially refining margins, will continue to decline next week in light of swelling product inventories in the U.S. and Europe,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates LLC in Houston.
U.S. gasoline stockpiles surged 5.41 million barrels last week, more than 10 times what was forecast by analysts in a Bloomberg News survey, according to an Energy Department report on Sept. 23. Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, rose 2.96 million barrels, almost double what was estimated.
U.S. fuel consumption dropped 3.3 percent to 18.5 million barrels a day, the lowest since the week ended June 26. Gasoline use slipped 2.3 percent to 8.79 million barrels a day, the lowest since January.Crude oil for November delivery fell $6.60, or 9.1 percent, to $65.89 a barrel this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil has climbed 48 percent this year and has slipped 55 percent from a record $147.27 reached on July 11, 2008.
The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 47 percent of the time since its start in April 2004.
Bloomberg’s survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted
each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil
futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming
week. The results were:
RISE NEUTRAL FALL
7 13 24
October To Be ‘Cruel For Markets’: Strategist
By: JeeYeon Park
News Associate
Stocks remained lower on Thursday after the 7-year bond auction, sending mixed signals to investors about the stability of the market. How should investors be trading? Eric Thorne, investment advisor at Bryn Mawr Trust Wealth Management and David Kelly, chief market strategist at JPMorgan Funds shared their insights.“Over the next 12 to 18 months, we will see continued gradual improvement in the economy and in the markets,” Thorne told CNBC. “But in the short term, we’re particularly concerned that the markets have gotten ahead of themselves.”
Link:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33006833
globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
News Associate
Stocks remained lower on Thursday after the 7-year bond auction, sending mixed signals to investors about the stability of the market. How should investors be trading? Eric Thorne, investment advisor at Bryn Mawr Trust Wealth Management and David Kelly, chief market strategist at JPMorgan Funds shared their insights.“Over the next 12 to 18 months, we will see continued gradual improvement in the economy and in the markets,” Thorne told CNBC. “But in the short term, we’re particularly concerned that the markets have gotten ahead of themselves.”
Link:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33006833
globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
US May Face 'Armageddon' If China, Japan Don't Buy Debt
By: JeeYeon Park
News Associate
The US is too dependent on Japan and China buying up the country's debt and could face severe economic problems if that stops, Tiger Management founder and chairman Julian Robertson told CNBC."It's almost Armageddon if the Japanese and Chinese don't buy our debt,” Robertson said in an interview. "I don't know where we could get the money. I think we've let ourselves get in a terrible situation and I think we ought to try and get out of it."Robertson said inflation is a big risk if foreign countries were to stop buying bonds.
Link:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33004753
News Associate
The US is too dependent on Japan and China buying up the country's debt and could face severe economic problems if that stops, Tiger Management founder and chairman Julian Robertson told CNBC."It's almost Armageddon if the Japanese and Chinese don't buy our debt,” Robertson said in an interview. "I don't know where we could get the money. I think we've let ourselves get in a terrible situation and I think we ought to try and get out of it."Robertson said inflation is a big risk if foreign countries were to stop buying bonds.
Link:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33004753
Marc Faber Says Stocks Have Likely Peaked for 2009
(Bloomberg) -- Stocks may have already peaked for this year and might drop 20 percent amid renewed deflation fears, said Marc Faber, the publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report. The dollar is likely to rebound from an “oversold” position, which will be negative for equities, Faber said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on the sidelines of CLSA Ltd.’s annual investor conference in Hong Kong.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if we’d seen the peak of the market for this year because the economic news isn’t going to improve very much,” Faber, 63, said. “The correction in the market has been overdue for quite some time.” The investor predicted on March 9 in a Bloomberg interview that equities would rally because of government stimulus measures. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped to a 12-year low that day and has since climbed 55 percent. The MSCI World Index rallied 63 percent in that time.
The S&P reached a high for 2009 of 1,071.66 on Sept. 22, and has since slipped 2 percent amid concerns the rally had outpaced prospects for a recovery in earnings and economic growth. France, Germany and Japan are among economies that have emerged from recession. The Bank of Japan upgraded its assessment of the economy on Sept. 17 though said it remained concerned about the strength of the recovery. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said on Sept. 15 that the U.S. recession is “very likely” over, while warning that growth may not be strong enough to quickly reduce unemployment.
Credit Crisis
In a presentation to investors at the CLSA forum after the interview, Faber reiterated his bearish outlook for Western economies because fiscal and monetary stimulus efforts have only delayed a coming crisis instead of averting it. The global credit crunch, worsened by the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. a year ago, has caused more than $1.6 trillion of writedowns and losses at the world’s biggest financial institutions. The MSCI World Index slumped by a record 43 percent in 2008.
“You cannot postpone the hour of truth forever,” said the Swiss national, who now lives in Thailand. “The next stage is for total breakdown of the financial system and for an economic and financial crisis that will bankrupt governments.” The investor predicted in the interview with Bloomberg that gold “should correct” in tandem with equities. Gold futures rose above $1,000 an ounce for the first time in seven months on Sept. 11.
‘False Breakout’
“We probably had a false breakout on the upside,” he said. “I wouldn’t be surprised to see a little bit more of a correction down to maybe $920 per ounce.” Faber had recommended investors buy gold since the start of an eight-year rally and maintained that he isn’t going to sell his holdings of the metal despite his prediction for prices to fall.
Faber expects the dollar to rally as concerns about deflation prompt risk-averse investors to repatriate funds back to the U.S. The Dollar Index has slumped 8.4 percent in the past six months amid speculation investors are using borrowed dollars to fund asset purchases in other countries. The dollar is ultimately a “doomed currency,” as is the British pound, he said, because high debt levels in both countries will lead to inflation as central banks monetize debt. Asian countries, which have low levels of leverage, should continue to grow in spite of any economic decline in the U.S. and the U.K., he said.
U.K. consumer debt as a proportion of the country’s gross domestic product exceeded 100 percent at the end of the second quarter, while the U.S. was more than 90 percent, according to CLSA data. China, India, Indonesia and the Philippines had less than 20 percent. “On any setback in Asian shares, you should gradually accumulate,” he said.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if we’d seen the peak of the market for this year because the economic news isn’t going to improve very much,” Faber, 63, said. “The correction in the market has been overdue for quite some time.” The investor predicted on March 9 in a Bloomberg interview that equities would rally because of government stimulus measures. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped to a 12-year low that day and has since climbed 55 percent. The MSCI World Index rallied 63 percent in that time.
The S&P reached a high for 2009 of 1,071.66 on Sept. 22, and has since slipped 2 percent amid concerns the rally had outpaced prospects for a recovery in earnings and economic growth. France, Germany and Japan are among economies that have emerged from recession. The Bank of Japan upgraded its assessment of the economy on Sept. 17 though said it remained concerned about the strength of the recovery. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said on Sept. 15 that the U.S. recession is “very likely” over, while warning that growth may not be strong enough to quickly reduce unemployment.
Credit Crisis
In a presentation to investors at the CLSA forum after the interview, Faber reiterated his bearish outlook for Western economies because fiscal and monetary stimulus efforts have only delayed a coming crisis instead of averting it. The global credit crunch, worsened by the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. a year ago, has caused more than $1.6 trillion of writedowns and losses at the world’s biggest financial institutions. The MSCI World Index slumped by a record 43 percent in 2008.
“You cannot postpone the hour of truth forever,” said the Swiss national, who now lives in Thailand. “The next stage is for total breakdown of the financial system and for an economic and financial crisis that will bankrupt governments.” The investor predicted in the interview with Bloomberg that gold “should correct” in tandem with equities. Gold futures rose above $1,000 an ounce for the first time in seven months on Sept. 11.
‘False Breakout’
“We probably had a false breakout on the upside,” he said. “I wouldn’t be surprised to see a little bit more of a correction down to maybe $920 per ounce.” Faber had recommended investors buy gold since the start of an eight-year rally and maintained that he isn’t going to sell his holdings of the metal despite his prediction for prices to fall.
Faber expects the dollar to rally as concerns about deflation prompt risk-averse investors to repatriate funds back to the U.S. The Dollar Index has slumped 8.4 percent in the past six months amid speculation investors are using borrowed dollars to fund asset purchases in other countries. The dollar is ultimately a “doomed currency,” as is the British pound, he said, because high debt levels in both countries will lead to inflation as central banks monetize debt. Asian countries, which have low levels of leverage, should continue to grow in spite of any economic decline in the U.S. and the U.K., he said.
U.K. consumer debt as a proportion of the country’s gross domestic product exceeded 100 percent at the end of the second quarter, while the U.S. was more than 90 percent, according to CLSA data. China, India, Indonesia and the Philippines had less than 20 percent. “On any setback in Asian shares, you should gradually accumulate,” he said.
Oil Heading to Test Support in Low $60s: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may test support in the low $60s after breaking a trend of rising prices that began in February, according to technical analysis by Newedge Group. If prices drop below $65 a barrel, there will be support in the $63.60-to-$63.75 area and then at $61.38, said Veronique Lashinski, a senior research analyst for Newedge USA LLC in Chicago. Crude oil for November delivery fell 3.9 percent to $68.97 on Sept. 23, ending more than seven months of price gains that started on Feb. 18 when the contract slipped to $45.87.
“The market has looked weak since last week,” Lashinski said in an interview. “The dollar touched a new low and the S&P made a new high and crude oil just sat there. The correlation between oil and the markets ended.”
The dollar dropped against the euro four out of five days in the week ended Sept. 18. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 2.5 percent in the period and touched 1,068.76 on Sept. 16, the highest since September 2008. Crude oil traded between $68.02 and $73.16 in the week, within the $65-to-$75 range that it’s moved in since July.
Crude oil for November delivery fell $3.08, or 4.5 percent, to $65.89 a barrel yesterday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the lowest settlement for a front-month contract since July 29. “We are getting a confluence of bearish warnings,” Lashinski said. Technical traders watch for patterns on daily charts for clues to price direction, and may sell or buy based on those signals.
“The market has looked weak since last week,” Lashinski said in an interview. “The dollar touched a new low and the S&P made a new high and crude oil just sat there. The correlation between oil and the markets ended.”
The dollar dropped against the euro four out of five days in the week ended Sept. 18. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 2.5 percent in the period and touched 1,068.76 on Sept. 16, the highest since September 2008. Crude oil traded between $68.02 and $73.16 in the week, within the $65-to-$75 range that it’s moved in since July.
Crude oil for November delivery fell $3.08, or 4.5 percent, to $65.89 a barrel yesterday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the lowest settlement for a front-month contract since July 29. “We are getting a confluence of bearish warnings,” Lashinski said. Technical traders watch for patterns on daily charts for clues to price direction, and may sell or buy based on those signals.
Gold Falls Most in Two Months as Dollar’s Rebound Erodes Demand
(Bloomberg) -- Gold fell the most in more than two months, closing below $1,000 an ounce, as the dollar’s rebound reduced demand for the precious metal as an alternative asset. The dollar climbed from a one-year low against a basket of six major currencies. Before today, gold advanced 15 percent this year, while the greenback dropped 6.5 percent.
“You’re seeing significant selling in gold because the dollar is beginning to rise,” said Leonard Kaplan, the president of Prospector Asset Management in Evanston, Illinois.
Gold futures for December delivery fell $15.50, or 1.5 percent, to $998.90 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the steepest decline for a most- active contract since July 8. The U.S. Dollar Index, the six-currency basket that includes the euro and yen, jumped as much as 1.3 percent, the biggest gain in more than three months. Silver futures for December delivery fell 61.5 cents, or 3.6 percent, to $16.295 an ounce on the Comex. It was the sharpest drop for a most-active contract since Aug. 17.
The Fed yesterday kept its target lending rate at a record low range of zero to 0.25 percent, and policy makers suggested they can control the threat of inflation. While the economy has “picked up,” the central bank’s planned asset purchases will help ensure a “gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization,” the Fed’s Open Market Committee said yesterday. “Based on the comments by the Fed, it seems they’re going to withdraw the economic stimulus in a timely fashion,” Kaplan said. “That would contain the fear of inflation, which was why gold had rallied this year.”
Chart Analysis
Gold’s decline may accelerate after prices failed to rally closer to the record, UBS AG said in a report yesterday. Technical analysis shows the bullish trend can only be maintained should prices surpass $1,032.50, UBS said. The metal reached $1,025.80 on Sept. 17. Gold jumped to a record $1,033.90 on March 17, 2008.
The Fed’s statement is “theoretically negative for gold, because they took away the wording on inflation, but there wasn’t any talk of rate hikes,” said Tom Pawlicki, an MF Global Inc. metals analyst in Chicago. Gold may climb to $1,100 early next year, he said. A rate increase would boost demand for the U.S. currency, analysts say.
“You’re seeing significant selling in gold because the dollar is beginning to rise,” said Leonard Kaplan, the president of Prospector Asset Management in Evanston, Illinois.
Gold futures for December delivery fell $15.50, or 1.5 percent, to $998.90 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the steepest decline for a most- active contract since July 8. The U.S. Dollar Index, the six-currency basket that includes the euro and yen, jumped as much as 1.3 percent, the biggest gain in more than three months. Silver futures for December delivery fell 61.5 cents, or 3.6 percent, to $16.295 an ounce on the Comex. It was the sharpest drop for a most-active contract since Aug. 17.
The Fed yesterday kept its target lending rate at a record low range of zero to 0.25 percent, and policy makers suggested they can control the threat of inflation. While the economy has “picked up,” the central bank’s planned asset purchases will help ensure a “gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization,” the Fed’s Open Market Committee said yesterday. “Based on the comments by the Fed, it seems they’re going to withdraw the economic stimulus in a timely fashion,” Kaplan said. “That would contain the fear of inflation, which was why gold had rallied this year.”
Chart Analysis
Gold’s decline may accelerate after prices failed to rally closer to the record, UBS AG said in a report yesterday. Technical analysis shows the bullish trend can only be maintained should prices surpass $1,032.50, UBS said. The metal reached $1,025.80 on Sept. 17. Gold jumped to a record $1,033.90 on March 17, 2008.
The Fed’s statement is “theoretically negative for gold, because they took away the wording on inflation, but there wasn’t any talk of rate hikes,” said Tom Pawlicki, an MF Global Inc. metals analyst in Chicago. Gold may climb to $1,100 early next year, he said. A rate increase would boost demand for the U.S. currency, analysts say.
Euro May Fall to 2-Week Low Versus Dollar: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The euro may fall to a two-week low against the dollar by the end of next week, according to Tokai Tokyo Securities Co., citing trading patterns. The 16-nation currency is poised to enter a downtrend after having risen to $1.4844 on Sept. 23, the highest since Sept. 22, 2008, said Yoh Nihei, a trading group manager at Tokai Tokyo. Daily momentum indicators such as the moving average convergence/divergence chart are giving signals to sell euros for dollars, according to Nihei.
“The euro failed to rise above $1.45 in July and August,” Nihei said yesterday. “This time, that level is likely to be a strong support level.” The euro dropped to a level of so-called support at $1.4611 on Sept. 21, Nihei said. Should the euro decline below the level, the next support will be about $1.4520, which represents the 21- day moving average, according to Nihei. The last time the euro traded below $1.4520 was on Sept. 14.
Should it break that level, the euro may drop toward $1.4281, which represents a 76.4 percent Fibonacci retracement from this year’s low of $1.2457 reached on March 4, Nihei said. Support is where buy orders may be clustered. The euro was at $1.4652 as of 7:58 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.4666 in New York yesterday.
Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low. A break above resistance or below support indicates a currency may move to the next level. MACD charts can indicate whether a price shift is a change in trend or a short-term deviation by comparing moving averages based on nine-, 12- and 26-day periods. In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.
“The euro failed to rise above $1.45 in July and August,” Nihei said yesterday. “This time, that level is likely to be a strong support level.” The euro dropped to a level of so-called support at $1.4611 on Sept. 21, Nihei said. Should the euro decline below the level, the next support will be about $1.4520, which represents the 21- day moving average, according to Nihei. The last time the euro traded below $1.4520 was on Sept. 14.
Should it break that level, the euro may drop toward $1.4281, which represents a 76.4 percent Fibonacci retracement from this year’s low of $1.2457 reached on March 4, Nihei said. Support is where buy orders may be clustered. The euro was at $1.4652 as of 7:58 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.4666 in New York yesterday.
Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low. A break above resistance or below support indicates a currency may move to the next level. MACD charts can indicate whether a price shift is a change in trend or a short-term deviation by comparing moving averages based on nine-, 12- and 26-day periods. In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.
Sentimen Negatif & Teknikal Overbought Picu Profit Taking di IHSG
Penyesuaian terhadap kenaikan indeks saham regional Asia dan Wall Street di awal pekan ini, setelah IHSG mengalami liburan panjang (18-23 September 2009), mendorong IHSG sempat mencapai level tertinggi 2,482.85 kemarin. Meski IHSG akhirnya menjelang penutupan dilanda aksi profit-taking karena koreksi penurunan indeks saham regional dan Eropa seiring penurunan harga komoditas global dan penguatan dolar AS terhadap mata uang utama dunia lainnya. IHSG sebelumnya mendapatkan sejumlah katalis positif dari kenaikan harga saham BUMI (laporan pinjaman dari CIC China sebesar US$ 1.9 miliar), dan INDF (Morgan Stanley upgrade target harga menjadi Rp 3,400) dan TLKM mengikuti ekspektasi kinerja perseroan yang solid, membatasi aksi penjualan saham di sektor pertambangan dan perkebunan. IHSG menguat 11.91 poin (+0.48%) ditutup di 2,468.9, dengan nilai transaksi sebesar Rp 4.67 triliun.
Mayoritas indeks saham di Asia melemah, dipimpin oleh perusahaan komoditi dan keuangan, karena harga energi dan bahan material anjlok, diikuti Aiful Corp memprediksikan kerugian setahun penuh. Meski saham Jepang mengiat mengikuti Goldman Sachs upgrade saham Toshiba Corp dan Fast Retailing Co. Indeks saham Hong Kong anjlok 2.5% karena anjloknya saham Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd. Kekhawatiran terhadap AS akan memperlambat pembelian mortgage dan laporan ekspor Jepang yang anjlok di bulan Agustus, membebani indeks Asia.
IHSG Outlook
Potensi kenaikan IHSG untuk menguat di akhir pekan ini, karena perkiraan imbas penurunan harga komoditi global (minyak anjlok ke US$ 66/barel; emas anjlok dibawah US$ 1,000/ons) dapat picu aksi profit-taking saham komoditi domestik, penguatan dolar terhadap mata uang global dapat membatasi laju rupiah (euro-dolar terkoreksi ke $ 1.4656, pound dolar ke $ 1.5954) dan munculnya sejumlah sentimen negatif dari luar negeri (isu the Fed, lemahnya data perumahan AS), telah menjatuhkan mayoritas saham global kemarin. Meski sebelumnya IHSG di awal pekan ini mendapatkan sejumlah sentimen positif dari laporan tewasnya teroris Noordin M Top, penguatan mata uang rupiah terhadap dolar (sentuh Rp 9,585 di pekan lalu), ADB meningkatkan prediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi RI menjadi 4.4% di tahun ini dari 4.2%, sejumlah isu positif dari emiten unggulan seperti BUMI (isu pinjaman CIC sebesar US$ 1.9 miliar), BBCA (mendapatkan rating positif dari Moodys), INDF (Morgan Stanleyupgrade target harga: Rp 3,400) dan TLKM (ekspekstasi earning dan ekspansi), seharusnya memberikan support kepada IHSG (Buy on Weakness), karena trend IHSG, sentimen (ekspektasi inflasi bulan September terkendali dan imbas penguatan rupiah), diikuti inflow menunjukkan investor asing masih membukukan net buy dalam 2 pekan terakhir, dapat topang kinerja bullish IHSG dalam jangka pendek.
Stock Picks:Average last 13 week +77.07%. Target 10-30%, Risk < -10%Sell on rally: BUMI, UNSP, BBRI, INCO, PGAS, TLKM, ANTM, ASIIBuy on weakness: JSMR, INDF, BMRI, BBCA, GGRM, UNTR, UNVRStock Picks:BUMI : Overweight target Rp 3,950SMCB : Overweight target Rp 1,500
Global Outlook
Indeks saham regional Asia dan Wall Street diperkirakan mengalami koreksi penurunan di akhir pekan ini, menjelang pertemuan kepala negara G-20 di Pittsburg AS di akhir pekan ini, dapat memicu aksi profit-taking berkat anjloknya data existing home sales AS dan ekspor jepang di bulan Agustus, kekhawatiran AS akan menarik dana stimulus di bulan Oktober dan The Fed memperlambat pembelian surat berharga dan mortgage paska pertemuan FOMC kemarin (22-23 September), diikuti mahalnya valuasi saham indeks S&P 500 di pekan ini (PER 20.2x) dan MSCI Emerging Market (PER 28.5x), trend penurunan indeks saham komposit Shanghai (kegagalan bertahan di atas level psikologis 3,000), sentimen negatif dari sektor perbankan AS setelah Bank of America menaikkan biaya kepada nasabah, penurunan harga minyak (kenaikan inventory minyak AS melonjak 2.86 juta barel di pekan lalu, target US$62) dapat menyeret penurunan harga komoditas global lainnya, masih membebani potensi kenaikanindeks saham global. Meski indeks saham Asia dan AS masih ditopang oleh isu pemulihan ekonomi global dari sejumlah data ekonomi global tercatat diatas perkiraan pasar dan pernyataan positif dari FOMC kemarin, aksi pembelian saham oleh Warren Buffet, euphoria penawaran saham perdana (IPO) di AS dan China, analis upgrade sejumlah saham unggulan di Asia, seharusnya masih topang kinerja bullish indeks global.Daily Performance : Regional Asia & DJIA Index (emerginvest.com)
Technical Analysis:Potensi kenaikan IHSG di akhir pekan ini terlihat mulai terbatas, karena sejumlah resistance kuat di 2,500 (upper channel)/2,522 (projection 61.8%)/2,550 (upper channel berikutnya) siap menghadang kinerja bullish IHSG. Meski IHSG masih ditopang oleh trend bullish jangka pendek setelah ditutup diatas 76.4% Fibo 2838-1089 di 2,425, pola candle menunjukkan long bullish (pola bullish continuation), berada dalam uptrend channel weekly, serta indikator teknikal ADX menunjukkan flat dari koreksi penurunan, MACD masih bullish dan ditutup diatas 5 & 10-week MA (2,306/2,142), seharusnya masih dapat menopang kinerja IHSG pekan ini. Meski adanya pola divergence di volume dan MACD dapat menahan laju kenaikan IHSG. IHSG masih dapat mengarah ke target 2,500/2,550 pada beberapa pekan mendatang, selama tidak ditutup di bawah 2,384 (trendline). Hitungan EW menunjukkan IHSG saat ini di subwave impulse 3 (minor 3/5) target 2,500/2,550 (5/3??) dalam intermediate wave IV/B
Mayoritas indeks saham di Asia melemah, dipimpin oleh perusahaan komoditi dan keuangan, karena harga energi dan bahan material anjlok, diikuti Aiful Corp memprediksikan kerugian setahun penuh. Meski saham Jepang mengiat mengikuti Goldman Sachs upgrade saham Toshiba Corp dan Fast Retailing Co. Indeks saham Hong Kong anjlok 2.5% karena anjloknya saham Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd. Kekhawatiran terhadap AS akan memperlambat pembelian mortgage dan laporan ekspor Jepang yang anjlok di bulan Agustus, membebani indeks Asia.
IHSG Outlook
Potensi kenaikan IHSG untuk menguat di akhir pekan ini, karena perkiraan imbas penurunan harga komoditi global (minyak anjlok ke US$ 66/barel; emas anjlok dibawah US$ 1,000/ons) dapat picu aksi profit-taking saham komoditi domestik, penguatan dolar terhadap mata uang global dapat membatasi laju rupiah (euro-dolar terkoreksi ke $ 1.4656, pound dolar ke $ 1.5954) dan munculnya sejumlah sentimen negatif dari luar negeri (isu the Fed, lemahnya data perumahan AS), telah menjatuhkan mayoritas saham global kemarin. Meski sebelumnya IHSG di awal pekan ini mendapatkan sejumlah sentimen positif dari laporan tewasnya teroris Noordin M Top, penguatan mata uang rupiah terhadap dolar (sentuh Rp 9,585 di pekan lalu), ADB meningkatkan prediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi RI menjadi 4.4% di tahun ini dari 4.2%, sejumlah isu positif dari emiten unggulan seperti BUMI (isu pinjaman CIC sebesar US$ 1.9 miliar), BBCA (mendapatkan rating positif dari Moodys), INDF (Morgan Stanleyupgrade target harga: Rp 3,400) dan TLKM (ekspekstasi earning dan ekspansi), seharusnya memberikan support kepada IHSG (Buy on Weakness), karena trend IHSG, sentimen (ekspektasi inflasi bulan September terkendali dan imbas penguatan rupiah), diikuti inflow menunjukkan investor asing masih membukukan net buy dalam 2 pekan terakhir, dapat topang kinerja bullish IHSG dalam jangka pendek.
Stock Picks:Average last 13 week +77.07%. Target 10-30%, Risk < -10%Sell on rally: BUMI, UNSP, BBRI, INCO, PGAS, TLKM, ANTM, ASIIBuy on weakness: JSMR, INDF, BMRI, BBCA, GGRM, UNTR, UNVRStock Picks:BUMI : Overweight target Rp 3,950SMCB : Overweight target Rp 1,500
Global Outlook
Indeks saham regional Asia dan Wall Street diperkirakan mengalami koreksi penurunan di akhir pekan ini, menjelang pertemuan kepala negara G-20 di Pittsburg AS di akhir pekan ini, dapat memicu aksi profit-taking berkat anjloknya data existing home sales AS dan ekspor jepang di bulan Agustus, kekhawatiran AS akan menarik dana stimulus di bulan Oktober dan The Fed memperlambat pembelian surat berharga dan mortgage paska pertemuan FOMC kemarin (22-23 September), diikuti mahalnya valuasi saham indeks S&P 500 di pekan ini (PER 20.2x) dan MSCI Emerging Market (PER 28.5x), trend penurunan indeks saham komposit Shanghai (kegagalan bertahan di atas level psikologis 3,000), sentimen negatif dari sektor perbankan AS setelah Bank of America menaikkan biaya kepada nasabah, penurunan harga minyak (kenaikan inventory minyak AS melonjak 2.86 juta barel di pekan lalu, target US$62) dapat menyeret penurunan harga komoditas global lainnya, masih membebani potensi kenaikanindeks saham global. Meski indeks saham Asia dan AS masih ditopang oleh isu pemulihan ekonomi global dari sejumlah data ekonomi global tercatat diatas perkiraan pasar dan pernyataan positif dari FOMC kemarin, aksi pembelian saham oleh Warren Buffet, euphoria penawaran saham perdana (IPO) di AS dan China, analis upgrade sejumlah saham unggulan di Asia, seharusnya masih topang kinerja bullish indeks global.Daily Performance : Regional Asia & DJIA Index (emerginvest.com)
Technical Analysis:Potensi kenaikan IHSG di akhir pekan ini terlihat mulai terbatas, karena sejumlah resistance kuat di 2,500 (upper channel)/2,522 (projection 61.8%)/2,550 (upper channel berikutnya) siap menghadang kinerja bullish IHSG. Meski IHSG masih ditopang oleh trend bullish jangka pendek setelah ditutup diatas 76.4% Fibo 2838-1089 di 2,425, pola candle menunjukkan long bullish (pola bullish continuation), berada dalam uptrend channel weekly, serta indikator teknikal ADX menunjukkan flat dari koreksi penurunan, MACD masih bullish dan ditutup diatas 5 & 10-week MA (2,306/2,142), seharusnya masih dapat menopang kinerja IHSG pekan ini. Meski adanya pola divergence di volume dan MACD dapat menahan laju kenaikan IHSG. IHSG masih dapat mengarah ke target 2,500/2,550 pada beberapa pekan mendatang, selama tidak ditutup di bawah 2,384 (trendline). Hitungan EW menunjukkan IHSG saat ini di subwave impulse 3 (minor 3/5) target 2,500/2,550 (5/3??) dalam intermediate wave IV/B
Emerging Market Currencies Undervalued, Goldman’s Fiotakis Says
(Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market currencies are undervalued versus the dollar, euro, and yen because developing countries’ central banks are keeping monetary policy loose even as growth returns, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said today. “Emerging-market central banks have not been eager to allow rapid foreign currency appreciation,” Themos Fiotakis, a London-based analyst at Goldman wrote in an e-mailed note. “Moreover, the very loose monetary policy has been an extra prohibitive factor for strong emerging markets foreign-exchange outperformance.”
Currencies including the South African rand, the Mexican peso, the Brazilian real, the Indonesian rupiah and Russian ruble have potential to experience gains versus the dollar and the euro once central banks unwind monetary expansion, Fiotakis said, recommending clients go “long” on a basket that includes these currencies versus the euro, yen and dollar. A long position is a bet that a currency will strengthen.
Central banks in developing countries have refrained from tightening monetary policy before the U.S. or Europe on concerns interest rate increases may prompt domestic currency gains as investors take advantage of relatively higher yields, Fiotakis said. The Brazilian economy, South America’s largest, officially emerged from recession in the second quarter. Russia’s economic slump is easing in the second half after a “turnaround” in June and July, the government said Sept. 23. The “robust emerging market growth outlook” has created “high expectations for emerging market currencies,” Fiotakis said. The strong performance of emerging market equities also adds to speculation that the currencies may begin gaining soon, he said.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has surged 61 percent this year as government stimulus packages and interest-rate cuts helped revive economies, boosting commodity prices on the prospect of higher demand for raw materials. Oil prices have doubled from their December low, while copper has soared by almost the same degree this year.
Currencies including the South African rand, the Mexican peso, the Brazilian real, the Indonesian rupiah and Russian ruble have potential to experience gains versus the dollar and the euro once central banks unwind monetary expansion, Fiotakis said, recommending clients go “long” on a basket that includes these currencies versus the euro, yen and dollar. A long position is a bet that a currency will strengthen.
Central banks in developing countries have refrained from tightening monetary policy before the U.S. or Europe on concerns interest rate increases may prompt domestic currency gains as investors take advantage of relatively higher yields, Fiotakis said. The Brazilian economy, South America’s largest, officially emerged from recession in the second quarter. Russia’s economic slump is easing in the second half after a “turnaround” in June and July, the government said Sept. 23. The “robust emerging market growth outlook” has created “high expectations for emerging market currencies,” Fiotakis said. The strong performance of emerging market equities also adds to speculation that the currencies may begin gaining soon, he said.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has surged 61 percent this year as government stimulus packages and interest-rate cuts helped revive economies, boosting commodity prices on the prospect of higher demand for raw materials. Oil prices have doubled from their December low, while copper has soared by almost the same degree this year.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Morgan Stanley: Fed Exit Strategy Still Far Off
By Richard Berner & David Greenlaw | New York
Recession over, but no change in policy. At their meeting this week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) likely will leave monetary policy unchanged, and will probably continue to indicate that "economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period." Fed Chairman Bernanke's view that the recession is probably over doesn't materially change the setting for Fed policy. In contrast with some reports that officials are contemplating changes, Fed officials in their public statements express a continued high degree of caution regarding the sustainability of the incipient US economic recovery. Officials think that sustained recovery is far from assured, that core inflation may still decline from current levels, and that it's still early days for the healing in the financial system and markets. As a result, apart from acknowledging that the economy and markets have improved since the August FOMC meeting, the general tone of the post-meeting statement probably will be similar to the one following the last meeting, and open discussion of exit strategies is still far off.
http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/
Globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
Recession over, but no change in policy. At their meeting this week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) likely will leave monetary policy unchanged, and will probably continue to indicate that "economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period." Fed Chairman Bernanke's view that the recession is probably over doesn't materially change the setting for Fed policy. In contrast with some reports that officials are contemplating changes, Fed officials in their public statements express a continued high degree of caution regarding the sustainability of the incipient US economic recovery. Officials think that sustained recovery is far from assured, that core inflation may still decline from current levels, and that it's still early days for the healing in the financial system and markets. As a result, apart from acknowledging that the economy and markets have improved since the August FOMC meeting, the general tone of the post-meeting statement probably will be similar to the one following the last meeting, and open discussion of exit strategies is still far off.
http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/
Globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
Morgan Stanley’s Todd Boosts S&P 500 Year-End Target
Morgan Stanley’s Jason Todd, who had been Wall Street’s most bearish equity strategist, boosted his 2009 forecast for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index by 17 percent because of higher-than-anticipated earnings.
The strategist recommended investors cut stock holdings in July following a 41 percent surge in the S&P 500 since March 9. Todd now expects the index to finish the year at 1,050 after it rose 11 percent to 1,060.87 since his comments two months ago. He also upgraded his 2010 profit forecast for S&P 500 companies by 13 percent to $70 a share. “The current rally is typical of what follows major bear markets and is not, in our view, the start of a new multi-year bull market,” Todd wrote in a note to investors dated today. “However, we now think it can run for longer than we previously expected.”
Strategists at Wall Street’s biggest securities firms have failed to keep up with the S&P 500 after the steepest surge since the 1930s. The benchmark gauge for U.S. equities is above all but one of the 10 projections by forecasters in a Bloomberg survey this month, the first time that’s happened in data going back to 1999. The average estimate is 1,037. While Todd’s year-end target is 1 percent below yesterday’s close, he said the index could rise as high as 1,100 between now and Dec. 31.
Joyce, Garthwaite, Zyblock
Todd, whose prior forecast was 900, is now tied with Bank of Montreal’s Ben Joyce, Credit Suisse Group AG’s Andrew Garthwaite and RBC Capital Markets’ Myles Zyblock. Barclays Plc’s Barry Knapp is the most bearish at 930. “None of the traditional equity market indicators are giving a strong sell signal,” Todd said. “Against a backdrop where growth data are likely to be strong into year end and where liquidity remains generous, we think the headwinds preventing the market from trading higher are limited.”
Todd also increased his 2009 earnings estimate by 7.8 percent to $55. Analysts estimate companies in the S&P 500 will end a two-year profit slump in the last three months of 2009, with earnings projected to rise 62 percent on average, according to forecasts compiled by Bloomberg.
The strategist recommended investors cut stock holdings in July following a 41 percent surge in the S&P 500 since March 9. Todd now expects the index to finish the year at 1,050 after it rose 11 percent to 1,060.87 since his comments two months ago. He also upgraded his 2010 profit forecast for S&P 500 companies by 13 percent to $70 a share. “The current rally is typical of what follows major bear markets and is not, in our view, the start of a new multi-year bull market,” Todd wrote in a note to investors dated today. “However, we now think it can run for longer than we previously expected.”
Strategists at Wall Street’s biggest securities firms have failed to keep up with the S&P 500 after the steepest surge since the 1930s. The benchmark gauge for U.S. equities is above all but one of the 10 projections by forecasters in a Bloomberg survey this month, the first time that’s happened in data going back to 1999. The average estimate is 1,037. While Todd’s year-end target is 1 percent below yesterday’s close, he said the index could rise as high as 1,100 between now and Dec. 31.
Joyce, Garthwaite, Zyblock
Todd, whose prior forecast was 900, is now tied with Bank of Montreal’s Ben Joyce, Credit Suisse Group AG’s Andrew Garthwaite and RBC Capital Markets’ Myles Zyblock. Barclays Plc’s Barry Knapp is the most bearish at 930. “None of the traditional equity market indicators are giving a strong sell signal,” Todd said. “Against a backdrop where growth data are likely to be strong into year end and where liquidity remains generous, we think the headwinds preventing the market from trading higher are limited.”
Todd also increased his 2009 earnings estimate by 7.8 percent to $55. Analysts estimate companies in the S&P 500 will end a two-year profit slump in the last three months of 2009, with earnings projected to rise 62 percent on average, according to forecasts compiled by Bloomberg.
Daily Commodity Technical Analysis Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's fall from 73.16 resumes and is now back pressing 68.02 support. As discussed before, break of 68.02 will suggests that fall from 75.0 is resuming and affirm that case that crude oil has already topped out. Further decline should then be seen towards 65.23 cluster support next (100% projection of 75.0 to 67.05 from 73.16 at 65.21). On the upside, break of 71.77 resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside and bring retest of 75.0 high instead.
In the bigger picture, there is no change in the view that rise from 33.2 is a correction to whole down trend form 147.27. Question remains on whether such rally has completed at 75.0 already and the signals are so far conflicting. On the one hand, crude oil is still trading above medium term rising trending and thus the rally is still intact. On the other hand, crude has clearly lost upside momentum as seen in bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD and RSI. We'll stay neutral and look forward to a breakout from recent range for guidance.
On the downside, note that a break of 67.05 support will indicate that fall from 75.0 is resuming. By that time, the medium term trend line should be taken out firmly and will solidify the case that rise from 33.2 has completed at 75.0. Deeper decline should then be seen in such case to 58.32 support for confirmation. On the upside, above 75.0 will indicate that rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Nevertheless, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) and bring reversal finally.
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's choppy sideway trading continues and intraday outlook remains neutral for the moment. Some more consolidation could still be seen with risk of another fall to 983.2 support and possibly below. But downside is expected to be contained by 61.8% retracement of 931.3 to 1025.8 at 967.4 and bring rally resumption. On the upside, while another rise might be seen, it now looks like 1033.9 key resistance will hold on first attempt on loss of upside momentum and bring more consolidations first.
In the bigger picture, rise from 681 is tentatively treated as resumption of long term up trend. Sustained break of 1033.9 high will confirm this case and should target 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2 next. While some pull back might be seen in near term before decisive break of 1033.9, downside should be contained well above 931.3 support and bring rally resumption. However, note that a break of 931.3 dampen the bullish view and suggest that rise from 681 has completed. This will indicate indicate that such rise is merely part of the consolidation pattern that started at 1033.9.
Comex Silver (SI)
Intraday bias in Silver remains neutral for the moment as consolidation from 17.69 is still in progress. Some more sideway trading might be seen but downside is expected to be contained by 16.06 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 13.495 to 17.69 at 16.088) and bring rally resumption. Above 17.69 will target 19.55 key resistance next. However, break of 16.06 will indicate that whole rise from 12.435 might have completed too and will bring deeper pull back to 13.495/15.185 support zone instead.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rise from 8.4 is still in progress and could probably continue towards next key resistance level at 19.55. Nevertheless, we're not seeing a clear impulsive structure from 8.4 yet and hence, we'd treat such rise as part of the long term, wide range, consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 back in Mar 08. In other words, current rise from 8.4 is expected to be limited by 19.55/21.44 resistance zone and bring at least one more medium term fall. On the downside, break of 12.435 support is needed to confirm that rise from 8.4 has completed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pullback.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's fall from 73.16 resumes and is now back pressing 68.02 support. As discussed before, break of 68.02 will suggests that fall from 75.0 is resuming and affirm that case that crude oil has already topped out. Further decline should then be seen towards 65.23 cluster support next (100% projection of 75.0 to 67.05 from 73.16 at 65.21). On the upside, break of 71.77 resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside and bring retest of 75.0 high instead.
In the bigger picture, there is no change in the view that rise from 33.2 is a correction to whole down trend form 147.27. Question remains on whether such rally has completed at 75.0 already and the signals are so far conflicting. On the one hand, crude oil is still trading above medium term rising trending and thus the rally is still intact. On the other hand, crude has clearly lost upside momentum as seen in bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD and RSI. We'll stay neutral and look forward to a breakout from recent range for guidance.
On the downside, note that a break of 67.05 support will indicate that fall from 75.0 is resuming. By that time, the medium term trend line should be taken out firmly and will solidify the case that rise from 33.2 has completed at 75.0. Deeper decline should then be seen in such case to 58.32 support for confirmation. On the upside, above 75.0 will indicate that rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Nevertheless, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) and bring reversal finally.
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's choppy sideway trading continues and intraday outlook remains neutral for the moment. Some more consolidation could still be seen with risk of another fall to 983.2 support and possibly below. But downside is expected to be contained by 61.8% retracement of 931.3 to 1025.8 at 967.4 and bring rally resumption. On the upside, while another rise might be seen, it now looks like 1033.9 key resistance will hold on first attempt on loss of upside momentum and bring more consolidations first.
In the bigger picture, rise from 681 is tentatively treated as resumption of long term up trend. Sustained break of 1033.9 high will confirm this case and should target 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2 next. While some pull back might be seen in near term before decisive break of 1033.9, downside should be contained well above 931.3 support and bring rally resumption. However, note that a break of 931.3 dampen the bullish view and suggest that rise from 681 has completed. This will indicate indicate that such rise is merely part of the consolidation pattern that started at 1033.9.
Comex Silver (SI)
Intraday bias in Silver remains neutral for the moment as consolidation from 17.69 is still in progress. Some more sideway trading might be seen but downside is expected to be contained by 16.06 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 13.495 to 17.69 at 16.088) and bring rally resumption. Above 17.69 will target 19.55 key resistance next. However, break of 16.06 will indicate that whole rise from 12.435 might have completed too and will bring deeper pull back to 13.495/15.185 support zone instead.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rise from 8.4 is still in progress and could probably continue towards next key resistance level at 19.55. Nevertheless, we're not seeing a clear impulsive structure from 8.4 yet and hence, we'd treat such rise as part of the long term, wide range, consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 back in Mar 08. In other words, current rise from 8.4 is expected to be limited by 19.55/21.44 resistance zone and bring at least one more medium term fall. On the downside, break of 12.435 support is needed to confirm that rise from 8.4 has completed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pullback.
Daily Dow Jones Recommended Levels
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 9714.38 and 9658.12(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 9618.74, where correction also can be. Then follows 9590.63. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 9573.75. Continuation will bring 9541.40. Today's resistance: - 9811.11, 9836.90, 9857.44 and 9903.62(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 9921.50, where a correction may happen. Then follows 9942.80, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 9973.12. Continuation would bring 10001.25 and 10024.77.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 9714.38 and 9658.12(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 9618.74, where correction also can be. Then follows 9590.63. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 9573.75. Continuation will bring 9541.40. Today's resistance: - 9811.11, 9836.90, 9857.44 and 9903.62(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 9921.50, where a correction may happen. Then follows 9942.80, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 9973.12. Continuation would bring 10001.25 and 10024.77.
Technical Analysis for Forex Major Currencies
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by ecPulse.com
EURO
The Euro versus Dollar pair neared the suggested target yesterday at 1.4875, yet the FOMC rate decision pressured the pair to the downside, after the incline was halted at 1.4844. The pair is currently facing the key support for the bullish channel, seen in the image above, alongside the 61.8% correction at 1.4700, where it seems like the pair is being oversold according to the stochastic indicator. All this makes us believe the pair is to incline on the intraday basis; targeting the breach of 1.4844 in an attempt to head towards 1.5000 only if 1.4610 remains intact for today. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.4465 and the key resistance at 1.5000
The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4135 remains intact with targets at 1.6000
Support: 1.4700, 1.4665, 1.4610, 1.4565, 1.4515
Resistance: 1.4745, 1.4790, 1.4845, 1.4875, 1.4900
Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is buying the pair from 1.4700 to 1.4840 and stop loss below 1.4610 might be appropriate
GBP
The Cable faced a strong resistance at 1.6465, which reversed the pair to the downside in correctional movements supported by signs seen on the stochastic indicator, where we expect it to reach the 61.8% correction at 1.6265 before rebounding back to the upside to complete the bullish technical pattern, highlighted in the image above. From here, we expect the pair to incline breaching the 1.6445 resistance level and opening the way towards 1.6600. The stochastic indicator is entering oversold areas, which supports our overview and will be confirmed as far as 1.6190 is intact.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.6000 and the key resistance at 1.6740
The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4840 remains intact with targets at 1.7100
Support: 1.6300, 1.6265, 1.6190, 1.6155, 1.6095
Resistance: 1.6390, 1.6445, 1.6500, 1.6600, 1.6635
Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is buying the pair from 1.6265 to 1.6445 and stop loss below 1.6190 might be appropriate.

JPY
The USD/JPY pair was limited between the 50% and 38.2% correction, in an attempt to gather enough momentum to continue the short term downside trend, where we see a bearish crossover on the stochastic indicator supporting the decline for today to breach 90.50 and open the way to target 88.65 as far as 91.75 is intact. The trading range for today is among the key support at 88.20 and the key resistance at 94.70
The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60
Support: 90.50, 90.15, 89.35, 88.65, 88.20
Resistance: 91.25, 91.50, 91.75, 92.10, 92.55
Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is selling the pair with the breach of 90.50 to 89.70 and stop loss above 91.20 might be appropriate.

CHF
The Dollar versus Swissy pair breached the 38.2% correction to halt at the 50% correction at 1.0285. The stochastic indicator is trending within an overbought area, which supports the decline on the intraday basis heading towards the breach of the key support for the short term bearish channel with targets at 1.0000 as far as 1.0325 remains intact.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0000 and the key resistance at 1.0550
The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.1225 remains intact with targets at 0.9600
Support: 1.0200, 1.0135, 1.0080, 1.0000, 0.9935
Resistance: 1.0285, 1.0325, 1.0385, 1.0425, 1.0480
Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is selling the pair from 1.0285 to 1.0200 and stop loss above 1.0340 might be appropriate

EURO
The Euro versus Dollar pair neared the suggested target yesterday at 1.4875, yet the FOMC rate decision pressured the pair to the downside, after the incline was halted at 1.4844. The pair is currently facing the key support for the bullish channel, seen in the image above, alongside the 61.8% correction at 1.4700, where it seems like the pair is being oversold according to the stochastic indicator. All this makes us believe the pair is to incline on the intraday basis; targeting the breach of 1.4844 in an attempt to head towards 1.5000 only if 1.4610 remains intact for today. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.4465 and the key resistance at 1.5000
The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4135 remains intact with targets at 1.6000
Support: 1.4700, 1.4665, 1.4610, 1.4565, 1.4515
Resistance: 1.4745, 1.4790, 1.4845, 1.4875, 1.4900
Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is buying the pair from 1.4700 to 1.4840 and stop loss below 1.4610 might be appropriate
GBP
The Cable faced a strong resistance at 1.6465, which reversed the pair to the downside in correctional movements supported by signs seen on the stochastic indicator, where we expect it to reach the 61.8% correction at 1.6265 before rebounding back to the upside to complete the bullish technical pattern, highlighted in the image above. From here, we expect the pair to incline breaching the 1.6445 resistance level and opening the way towards 1.6600. The stochastic indicator is entering oversold areas, which supports our overview and will be confirmed as far as 1.6190 is intact.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.6000 and the key resistance at 1.6740
The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4840 remains intact with targets at 1.7100
Support: 1.6300, 1.6265, 1.6190, 1.6155, 1.6095
Resistance: 1.6390, 1.6445, 1.6500, 1.6600, 1.6635
Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is buying the pair from 1.6265 to 1.6445 and stop loss below 1.6190 might be appropriate.

JPY
The USD/JPY pair was limited between the 50% and 38.2% correction, in an attempt to gather enough momentum to continue the short term downside trend, where we see a bearish crossover on the stochastic indicator supporting the decline for today to breach 90.50 and open the way to target 88.65 as far as 91.75 is intact. The trading range for today is among the key support at 88.20 and the key resistance at 94.70
The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60
Support: 90.50, 90.15, 89.35, 88.65, 88.20
Resistance: 91.25, 91.50, 91.75, 92.10, 92.55
Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is selling the pair with the breach of 90.50 to 89.70 and stop loss above 91.20 might be appropriate.

CHF
The Dollar versus Swissy pair breached the 38.2% correction to halt at the 50% correction at 1.0285. The stochastic indicator is trending within an overbought area, which supports the decline on the intraday basis heading towards the breach of the key support for the short term bearish channel with targets at 1.0000 as far as 1.0325 remains intact.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0000 and the key resistance at 1.0550
The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.1225 remains intact with targets at 0.9600
Support: 1.0200, 1.0135, 1.0080, 1.0000, 0.9935
Resistance: 1.0285, 1.0325, 1.0385, 1.0425, 1.0480
Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is selling the pair from 1.0285 to 1.0200 and stop loss above 1.0340 might be appropriate

America on Sale: Weak Dollar Boosts US Economy, Stocks
A weak dollar contributing to a strong stock market and economy may make investors feel like they're living in some type of Wall Street Bizarro World. But for policymakers, the relationship is just fine for now. As the US currency continues to set fresh 12-month lows, the stock market is nearing a 12-month high and the economy is back from the brink of disaster.
http://mobile.cnbc.com/inf/infomo?site=cnbcusa&view=us_newsd&feed:a=topstories&feed:c=topstories&feed:i=32984850&all=1
http://mobile.cnbc.com/inf/infomo?site=cnbcusa&view=us_newsd&feed:a=topstories&feed:c=topstories&feed:i=32984850&all=1
Momentum Kenaikan IHSG Di Akhir Pekan Ini Terbatas
Market Review
IHSG mengalami penguatan pada pekan lalu, berkat sejumlah senimtn positif dari dalam negeri seperti kenaikan saham lapis kedua dan ketiga, antisipasi pasar menjelang liburan panjang Hari Raya Idul Fitri, imbas penguatan rupiah ke level tertinggi Rp 9,585 terhadap dolardan laporan tewasnya gembong teroris Noordin M Top (17/09), diikuti sentimen dari luarnegeri seperti pernyataan Fed Bernanke yang mengindisikan resesi ekonomi AS yang terburuk mungkin berakhir di tahun ini, kenaikan harga saham regional dan kenaikan harga komoditi (minyak, emas, cpo), menopang kinerja IHSG. IHSG menguat 41.04 poin (+1.7%) pekan lalu, ditutup di 2456.99, Hari Kamis (17/09) IHSG naik 17.63 poin (0.72%) menjadi 2456.99. Investor asing bukukan net buying sebesar Rp 299.3 miliar di pekan lalu, dibandingkan net buy sebesar 1,798.94 miliar di pekan sebelumnya.
Indeks saham Asia menguat untuk pekan kedua, mendorong indeks MSCI Asia Pasific ke level tertinggi 1-tahun, berkat spekulasi resesi global mungkin berakhir di tahun ini dan harga komoditi menguat. Indeks MSCI Asia Pasific telah menguat 0.46% menjadi 118.36, dimana telah menguat 68% sejak anjlok ke level terendah 5-tahun pada 5 Maret lalu. Imbas positif dari pernyataan Fed Bernanke, Greenspan dan Warren Buffett, data Retail Sales dan NY Manufacturing Index tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan, diikuti laporan penurunan crude inventory AS pekan lalu, serta kenaikan data store Korsel dan BOJ Upgrade ekonomi Jepang, ikut menopang kinerja Indeks MSCI Asis Pasific pekan lalu.
IHSG Outlook
Laju kenaikan IHSG untuk menguat dalam 2 hari perdagangan sisa di pekan ini, setelah mengalami liburan panjang (18-23 September 2009), akan terlihat tertatih-tatih, karena level IHSG tertinggi sejak Juni 2008 di pekan lalu, yang ditopang oleh sejumlah sentimen posifif di pekan lalu, seperti tewasnya gembong teroris Noordin M Top oleh pengebrekan Densus 88 di akhir pekan lalu yang dapat meningkatkan iklim investasi dan parawisata nasional, penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar AS ke level tertinggi sejak Oktober 2008 yang telah capai Rp 9,585 berkat anjloknya dolar AS terhadap mata uang utama dunia lainnya di pekan lalu mendorong perkiraan penguatan rupiah ke target Rp 9,500 dapat meningkatkan spekulasi inflasi di bulan September-Oktober akan terkendali dan memicu perkiraan penurunan suku bunga BI dari level 6.50% di bulan mendatang, imbas peningkatan rating mata uang lokal dan asing RI oleh Moodys, World Bank menaikkan prediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi RI menjadi 4.3% dari 3.5%, Asian Development Bank meningkatkan proyeksi pertumbuhan kawasan Asia (termasuk indonesia) menjadi 3.9% dari 3.4% di tahun ini, kuatnya inflow ke pasar modal dilihat dari investor asing membukukan net buying Rp 2,099 triliun dalam 2 pekan terakhir perdagangan, diikuti analis asing masih melakukan upgrade sejumlah saham unggulan domestik baru-baru ini dan prospek laporan keuangan triwulan ketiga tahun ini akan mencatat hasil yang lebih baik dari kuartal ½ 2009, dapat topang kinerja IHSG.
Meski valuasi saham IHSG yang mahal (PER 31.5x) diantara indeks saham di Asia Tenggara, kondisi indikator teknikal yang divergence dan overbought, laporan Moodys menurunkan peringkat global local currency deposit 4 bank BUMN (BMRI, BBNI, BBRI, BTN), penurunan harga komoditi (minyak anjlok ke US$ 68, emas ke US$ 1,011), laporan kenaikan harga elpiji dan jalan tol (28 September) dapat meningkatkan inflasi di bulan Oktober dapat meredam spekulasi penurunan suku bunga acuan BI di akhir tahun ini, kinerja saham regional yang cenderung stagnan dalam beberapa hari terakhir, terutama setelah semalam DJIA anjlok di tengah kekhawatiran The Fed memperlambat pembelian mortgage dan surat berharga lainnya, menjelang pertemuan G20 di Pittsburg AS, dapat membebani kinerja IHSG di akhir pekan ini.
Stock Picks:Average last 13 week +77.07%. Target 10-30%, Risk < -10%
Indeks saham regional Asia dan Wall Street diperkirakan mengalami kesulitan untuk menguat lebih lanjut di pekan ini, menjelang pertemuan kepala negara G-20 di Pittsburg AS di akhir pekan ini, dapat memicu aksi profit-taking berkat kekhawatiran AS akan menarik dana stimulus di bulan Oktober dan The Fed memperlambat pembelian surat berharga dan mortgage paska pertemuan FOMC kemarin (22-23 September), diikuti mahalnya valuasi saham indeks S&P 500 di pekan ini (PER 20.2x) dan MSCI Emerging Market (PER 28.5x), trend penurunan indeks saham komposit Shanghai (kegagalan bertahan di atas level psikologis 3,000), sentimen negatif dari sektor perbankan AS setelah Bank of America menaikkan biaya kepada nasabah, penurunan harga minyak (kenaikan inventory minyak AS melonjak 2.86 juta barel di pekan lalu) yang dapat menyeret penurunan harga komoditas global lainnya, masih membebani potensi kenaikan indeks saham global. Meski indeks saham Asia dan AS masih ditopang oleh isu pemulihan ekonomi global dari sejumlah data ekonomi global tercatat diatas perkiraan pasar dan pernyataan positif dari FOMC kemarin, aksi pembelian saham oleh Warren Buffet, euphoria penawaran saham perdana (IPO) di AS dan China, analis upgrade sejumlah saham unggulan di Asia, seharusnya masih topang kinerja bullish indeks global.
Technical Analysis:
Potensi kenaikan IHSG di akhir pekan ini terlihat mulai terbatas, karena sejumlah resistance kuat di 2,500 (upper channel)/2,522 (projection 61.8%)/2,550 (upper channel berikutnya) siap menghadang kinerja bullish IHSG. Meski IHSG masih ditopang oleh trend bullish jangka pendek setelah ditutup diatas 76.4% Fibo 2838-1089 di 2,425, pola candle menunjukkan long bullish (pola bullish continuation), berada dalam uptrend channel weekly, serta indikator teknikal ADX menunjukkan flat dari koreksi penurunan, MACD masih bullish dan ditutup diatas 5 & 10-week MA (2,306/2,142), seharusnya masih dapat menopang kinerja IHSG pekan ini. Meski adanya pola divergence di volume dan MACD dapat menahan laju kenaikan IHSG. IHSG masih dapat mengarah ke target 2,500/2,550 pada beberapa pekan mendatang, selama tidak ditutup di bawah 2,384 (trendline). Hitungan EW menunjukkan IHSG saat ini di subwave impulse 3 (minor 3/5) target 2,500/2,550 (5/3??) dalam intermediate wave IV / B.
Resistance: 2533.95/2514.71/2495.47/2465.88. PP 2436.28
Support : 2417.04/2397.80/2368.21/2338.61
www.strategydesk.co.id
www.universalbroker.co.id (Universal Broker Indonesia Securities;Code TF)
globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
IHSG mengalami penguatan pada pekan lalu, berkat sejumlah senimtn positif dari dalam negeri seperti kenaikan saham lapis kedua dan ketiga, antisipasi pasar menjelang liburan panjang Hari Raya Idul Fitri, imbas penguatan rupiah ke level tertinggi Rp 9,585 terhadap dolardan laporan tewasnya gembong teroris Noordin M Top (17/09), diikuti sentimen dari luarnegeri seperti pernyataan Fed Bernanke yang mengindisikan resesi ekonomi AS yang terburuk mungkin berakhir di tahun ini, kenaikan harga saham regional dan kenaikan harga komoditi (minyak, emas, cpo), menopang kinerja IHSG. IHSG menguat 41.04 poin (+1.7%) pekan lalu, ditutup di 2456.99, Hari Kamis (17/09) IHSG naik 17.63 poin (0.72%) menjadi 2456.99. Investor asing bukukan net buying sebesar Rp 299.3 miliar di pekan lalu, dibandingkan net buy sebesar 1,798.94 miliar di pekan sebelumnya.
Indeks saham Asia menguat untuk pekan kedua, mendorong indeks MSCI Asia Pasific ke level tertinggi 1-tahun, berkat spekulasi resesi global mungkin berakhir di tahun ini dan harga komoditi menguat. Indeks MSCI Asia Pasific telah menguat 0.46% menjadi 118.36, dimana telah menguat 68% sejak anjlok ke level terendah 5-tahun pada 5 Maret lalu. Imbas positif dari pernyataan Fed Bernanke, Greenspan dan Warren Buffett, data Retail Sales dan NY Manufacturing Index tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan, diikuti laporan penurunan crude inventory AS pekan lalu, serta kenaikan data store Korsel dan BOJ Upgrade ekonomi Jepang, ikut menopang kinerja Indeks MSCI Asis Pasific pekan lalu.
IHSG Outlook
Laju kenaikan IHSG untuk menguat dalam 2 hari perdagangan sisa di pekan ini, setelah mengalami liburan panjang (18-23 September 2009), akan terlihat tertatih-tatih, karena level IHSG tertinggi sejak Juni 2008 di pekan lalu, yang ditopang oleh sejumlah sentimen posifif di pekan lalu, seperti tewasnya gembong teroris Noordin M Top oleh pengebrekan Densus 88 di akhir pekan lalu yang dapat meningkatkan iklim investasi dan parawisata nasional, penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar AS ke level tertinggi sejak Oktober 2008 yang telah capai Rp 9,585 berkat anjloknya dolar AS terhadap mata uang utama dunia lainnya di pekan lalu mendorong perkiraan penguatan rupiah ke target Rp 9,500 dapat meningkatkan spekulasi inflasi di bulan September-Oktober akan terkendali dan memicu perkiraan penurunan suku bunga BI dari level 6.50% di bulan mendatang, imbas peningkatan rating mata uang lokal dan asing RI oleh Moodys, World Bank menaikkan prediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi RI menjadi 4.3% dari 3.5%, Asian Development Bank meningkatkan proyeksi pertumbuhan kawasan Asia (termasuk indonesia) menjadi 3.9% dari 3.4% di tahun ini, kuatnya inflow ke pasar modal dilihat dari investor asing membukukan net buying Rp 2,099 triliun dalam 2 pekan terakhir perdagangan, diikuti analis asing masih melakukan upgrade sejumlah saham unggulan domestik baru-baru ini dan prospek laporan keuangan triwulan ketiga tahun ini akan mencatat hasil yang lebih baik dari kuartal ½ 2009, dapat topang kinerja IHSG.
Meski valuasi saham IHSG yang mahal (PER 31.5x) diantara indeks saham di Asia Tenggara, kondisi indikator teknikal yang divergence dan overbought, laporan Moodys menurunkan peringkat global local currency deposit 4 bank BUMN (BMRI, BBNI, BBRI, BTN), penurunan harga komoditi (minyak anjlok ke US$ 68, emas ke US$ 1,011), laporan kenaikan harga elpiji dan jalan tol (28 September) dapat meningkatkan inflasi di bulan Oktober dapat meredam spekulasi penurunan suku bunga acuan BI di akhir tahun ini, kinerja saham regional yang cenderung stagnan dalam beberapa hari terakhir, terutama setelah semalam DJIA anjlok di tengah kekhawatiran The Fed memperlambat pembelian mortgage dan surat berharga lainnya, menjelang pertemuan G20 di Pittsburg AS, dapat membebani kinerja IHSG di akhir pekan ini.
Stock Picks:Average last 13 week +77.07%. Target 10-30%, Risk < -10%
Indeks saham regional Asia dan Wall Street diperkirakan mengalami kesulitan untuk menguat lebih lanjut di pekan ini, menjelang pertemuan kepala negara G-20 di Pittsburg AS di akhir pekan ini, dapat memicu aksi profit-taking berkat kekhawatiran AS akan menarik dana stimulus di bulan Oktober dan The Fed memperlambat pembelian surat berharga dan mortgage paska pertemuan FOMC kemarin (22-23 September), diikuti mahalnya valuasi saham indeks S&P 500 di pekan ini (PER 20.2x) dan MSCI Emerging Market (PER 28.5x), trend penurunan indeks saham komposit Shanghai (kegagalan bertahan di atas level psikologis 3,000), sentimen negatif dari sektor perbankan AS setelah Bank of America menaikkan biaya kepada nasabah, penurunan harga minyak (kenaikan inventory minyak AS melonjak 2.86 juta barel di pekan lalu) yang dapat menyeret penurunan harga komoditas global lainnya, masih membebani potensi kenaikan indeks saham global. Meski indeks saham Asia dan AS masih ditopang oleh isu pemulihan ekonomi global dari sejumlah data ekonomi global tercatat diatas perkiraan pasar dan pernyataan positif dari FOMC kemarin, aksi pembelian saham oleh Warren Buffet, euphoria penawaran saham perdana (IPO) di AS dan China, analis upgrade sejumlah saham unggulan di Asia, seharusnya masih topang kinerja bullish indeks global.
Technical Analysis:
Potensi kenaikan IHSG di akhir pekan ini terlihat mulai terbatas, karena sejumlah resistance kuat di 2,500 (upper channel)/2,522 (projection 61.8%)/2,550 (upper channel berikutnya) siap menghadang kinerja bullish IHSG. Meski IHSG masih ditopang oleh trend bullish jangka pendek setelah ditutup diatas 76.4% Fibo 2838-1089 di 2,425, pola candle menunjukkan long bullish (pola bullish continuation), berada dalam uptrend channel weekly, serta indikator teknikal ADX menunjukkan flat dari koreksi penurunan, MACD masih bullish dan ditutup diatas 5 & 10-week MA (2,306/2,142), seharusnya masih dapat menopang kinerja IHSG pekan ini. Meski adanya pola divergence di volume dan MACD dapat menahan laju kenaikan IHSG. IHSG masih dapat mengarah ke target 2,500/2,550 pada beberapa pekan mendatang, selama tidak ditutup di bawah 2,384 (trendline). Hitungan EW menunjukkan IHSG saat ini di subwave impulse 3 (minor 3/5) target 2,500/2,550 (5/3??) dalam intermediate wave IV / B.
Resistance: 2533.95/2514.71/2495.47/2465.88. PP 2436.28
Support : 2417.04/2397.80/2368.21/2338.61
www.strategydesk.co.id
www.universalbroker.co.id (Universal Broker Indonesia Securities;Code TF)
globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
Elliot Wave: Oil around the Support Line
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by TheLFB-Forex.com | Sep 23 09 12:06 GMT |
Usd/Cad "Ending Diagonal", Oil around the Support Line
Oil around the Support Line
Weekly Chart Trend: Mixed. Main price points: $33, and 74.90. Looking for: Wave 2)
Oil is still moving very slowly around the trend-line resistance and previous wave 1) top, which suggests that wave 2) still may be developing. As such, traders may see another move down to test the 38.2% retracement area again before the real gains come into the market. This scenario will be valid so long as the $33 low holds. A near-term break through the trend line support on the RSI indicator should be the key for move towards the $50-$60 area.
Daily chart trend: Short possibilities. Main price points: 58.30, 67.00, and 74,90. Looking for: Wave C
Oil prices on the daily chart traded higher in the past week, near to $73 per barrel as things bounced from the trend line support a week earlier. It seems that wave II) is now complete, which should put near-term bearish moves into play. The wave B pattern was completed at $74.90, so wave C should be in progress already, where we will be looking for a five wave move towards $58.30, down to the wave A) support area. Meanwhile the market must not break through the $74.90 area, otherwise the wave count will be invalidated. Traders with a short bias, however, still need to patiently wait on a break through the lower support line and the $67.00 area for a down-trend confirmation of a blue wave C.
4 Hour chart trend: Short possibilities. Main price points: 67.00, 69.00-69.50 and 73. Looking for: Move lower
On a four hour chart, oil prices slid very calmly over the last few days, after touching the 76.4% Fibonacci resistance area, around $73 per barrel. The prices have recently reached the support line for a third time in September, from where the market bounced to the upside over the last two sessions. It seems that this recent pull-back could be a black wave ii, so a move lower is expected where a break through the 69.00-69.50 support zone will signal a move lower into the red wave III) leg. The prices however, need to stay below the 73 resistance area until that break-out appears, otherwise the corrective count of the red wave II) will have to be re-worked.
Usd/Cad "Ending Diagonal", Oil around the Support Line
Oil around the Support Line
Weekly Chart Trend: Mixed. Main price points: $33, and 74.90. Looking for: Wave 2)
Oil is still moving very slowly around the trend-line resistance and previous wave 1) top, which suggests that wave 2) still may be developing. As such, traders may see another move down to test the 38.2% retracement area again before the real gains come into the market. This scenario will be valid so long as the $33 low holds. A near-term break through the trend line support on the RSI indicator should be the key for move towards the $50-$60 area.
Daily chart trend: Short possibilities. Main price points: 58.30, 67.00, and 74,90. Looking for: Wave C
Oil prices on the daily chart traded higher in the past week, near to $73 per barrel as things bounced from the trend line support a week earlier. It seems that wave II) is now complete, which should put near-term bearish moves into play. The wave B pattern was completed at $74.90, so wave C should be in progress already, where we will be looking for a five wave move towards $58.30, down to the wave A) support area. Meanwhile the market must not break through the $74.90 area, otherwise the wave count will be invalidated. Traders with a short bias, however, still need to patiently wait on a break through the lower support line and the $67.00 area for a down-trend confirmation of a blue wave C.
4 Hour chart trend: Short possibilities. Main price points: 67.00, 69.00-69.50 and 73. Looking for: Move lower
On a four hour chart, oil prices slid very calmly over the last few days, after touching the 76.4% Fibonacci resistance area, around $73 per barrel. The prices have recently reached the support line for a third time in September, from where the market bounced to the upside over the last two sessions. It seems that this recent pull-back could be a black wave ii, so a move lower is expected where a break through the 69.00-69.50 support zone will signal a move lower into the red wave III) leg. The prices however, need to stay below the 73 resistance area until that break-out appears, otherwise the corrective count of the red wave II) will have to be re-worked.
The Great Fed Financed U.S. Dollar Decline and Stock Market Rally of 2009
By: Prof_Rodrigue_Trembl
Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe liberty of a democracy is not safe if the people tolerate the growth of private power to the point where it becomes stronger than the democratic state itself. That in its essence is fascism — ownership of government by an individual, by a group or any controlling private power." Franklin D. Roosevelt (1882-1945), 32nd and longest-serving US president “This great and powerful force—the accumulated wealth of the United States—has taken over all the functions of Government, Congress, the issue of money, and banking and the army and navy in order to have a band of mercenaries to do their bidding and protect their stolen property.” Senator Richard Pettigrew, Triumphant Plutocracy, 1922 'I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered..' Thomas Jefferson, (1743-1826), 3rd US President, 1802
The U.S. national debt clock [http://www.usdebtclock.org/] is clicking and it is fast approaching the $12 trillion mark, all the while the Fed (less a central bank than the banks' Bank) is printing new money like crazy and lending it to its client banks at close to zero interest rates (i.e. at negative interest rates). What is wrong with this picture? It simply means that most Americans are losing big at this game, but a handful of mega-banks and their affiliates are raking in tremendous amounts of money in easily made profits.Indeed, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has more than doubled since August 2007, going from $870 billion to more than $2 trillion. It is expected to keep growing as banks avail themselves of the cheap funds the Fed made available to them. The Fed, indeed, has the unique ability to create new dollars (paper currency) for the accounts of assets (good or bad) that it buys from banks, the Treasury, or other entities. This increases the monetary base (the sum of currency plus total banking reserves), and banks through their lending can expand this money supply even further. [http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/Current/]
Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe liberty of a democracy is not safe if the people tolerate the growth of private power to the point where it becomes stronger than the democratic state itself. That in its essence is fascism — ownership of government by an individual, by a group or any controlling private power." Franklin D. Roosevelt (1882-1945), 32nd and longest-serving US president “This great and powerful force—the accumulated wealth of the United States—has taken over all the functions of Government, Congress, the issue of money, and banking and the army and navy in order to have a band of mercenaries to do their bidding and protect their stolen property.” Senator Richard Pettigrew, Triumphant Plutocracy, 1922 'I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered..' Thomas Jefferson, (1743-1826), 3rd US President, 1802
The U.S. national debt clock [http://www.usdebtclock.org/] is clicking and it is fast approaching the $12 trillion mark, all the while the Fed (less a central bank than the banks' Bank) is printing new money like crazy and lending it to its client banks at close to zero interest rates (i.e. at negative interest rates). What is wrong with this picture? It simply means that most Americans are losing big at this game, but a handful of mega-banks and their affiliates are raking in tremendous amounts of money in easily made profits.Indeed, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has more than doubled since August 2007, going from $870 billion to more than $2 trillion. It is expected to keep growing as banks avail themselves of the cheap funds the Fed made available to them. The Fed, indeed, has the unique ability to create new dollars (paper currency) for the accounts of assets (good or bad) that it buys from banks, the Treasury, or other entities. This increases the monetary base (the sum of currency plus total banking reserves), and banks through their lending can expand this money supply even further. [http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/Current/]
Gold, The Most Important Chart You Will See!
By: Peter_Degraaf
Commodities
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA chart is like a photograph. It locks in ‘the activity’ right up to the last moment. A chart is a reflection of the actions of multiple humans interacting in the marketplace. Since humans tend to act in ‘herd-like’ manner, reacting to the news they hear, read and see, a chart has a certain amount of predictive energy while it reflects the past. “A trend in motion remains in motion until it is stopped.”
Although technical analysis based on charts should not be used in isolation, but always in conjunction with fundamentals, a chart is nevertheless a valuable tool as it conveys recent history, and since history repeats, it can provide clues for the future.In the words of wise king Solomon: “That which has been is what will be, that which is done is what will be done, and there is nothing new under the sun.” Ecl. 1:9
Here are some fundamental reasons why this target is realistic:
1. Once the $1,000.00 level for gold in US dollars is history, there are no more barriers to the price.
2. The massive currency degradation occurring on a worldwide scale is unprecedented in history.
3. Central banks that formerly ‘capped’ the gold price by dumping gold have stopped selling, and some have turned to buying: The Russian Central Bank is reported to have purchased 300,000 ounces in August. The Chinese Central Bank has expressed an interest in buying the entire 403 tonnes of IMF gold that is up for sale. The Chinese bankers have indicated that they will buy gold ‘during any dips in price.’ Much of the gold on the books of some Central Banks has been leased out. It no longer exists except on the books at those banks. The gold at Fort Knox has not been audited since 1953! The threat of IMF gold coming on-stream caused barely a ripple in the gold price last week!
4. The Chinese government is encouraging its citizens to buy gold. This is a total reversal of the policy that formerly forbade its citizens to own gold. This policy is extremely bullish for gold, as an increasing number of Chinese banks and coin stores will be stocking up in order to have inventory. This inventory takes supply away from the market since it is replaced as soon as it is sold to retail customers.
5. The Chinese government is expressing its dissatisfaction with the US administration for causing the US dollar to drop due to the loose US monetary policy, and for imposing a 25% tariff on Chinese tires. This anger on the part of Chinese officials will translate into increased dumping of US Treasury bills and bonds and converting the proceeds into ‘real stuff’, such as gold and commodities.
6. The huge ‘net short’ position accumulated by the commercial traders and the 2 or 3 US bullion banks will have to be covered. The vast majority of these contracts are now showing a loss and margin calls are mounting.
7. Once the gold price is firmly established above the 1000 level, the hedge funds that own most of the ‘net long’ positions on the Comex will likely add to their positions, using some of the margin money they have accumulated on the way up. This will put further pressure on the 2 – 3 bullion banks to ‘cut bait.’ At the moment the hedge funds have these banks over a barrel.
8. More and more investors are becoming aware of the fact that the GLD and SLV gold and silver ETFs probably do not have as much gold and silver backing them as they should have. There are no regular independent audits conducted on these two ETFs. The next chart in this essay supports this observation. This will cause investors to abandon those ETFs and opt for physical gold.
9. Monetary inflation continues worldwide at double digit levels. Meanwhile the gold supply is limited to an annual increase of about 1.5%. ‘More money chasing fewer goods’ invariably causes those goods to rise in price.
10. Gold mines are a ‘depleting assets’. Each mine has a predictable mine life. Unless new deposits are found, every gold mine eventually faces extinction. According to mining experts, new deposits are not keeping up with the current rates of mine depletion. Production in South Africa has been steadily declining. Environmental concerns in many countries make the production of a gold mine expensive and very time consuming.
Commodities
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA chart is like a photograph. It locks in ‘the activity’ right up to the last moment. A chart is a reflection of the actions of multiple humans interacting in the marketplace. Since humans tend to act in ‘herd-like’ manner, reacting to the news they hear, read and see, a chart has a certain amount of predictive energy while it reflects the past. “A trend in motion remains in motion until it is stopped.”
Although technical analysis based on charts should not be used in isolation, but always in conjunction with fundamentals, a chart is nevertheless a valuable tool as it conveys recent history, and since history repeats, it can provide clues for the future.In the words of wise king Solomon: “That which has been is what will be, that which is done is what will be done, and there is nothing new under the sun.” Ecl. 1:9
Here are some fundamental reasons why this target is realistic:
1. Once the $1,000.00 level for gold in US dollars is history, there are no more barriers to the price.
2. The massive currency degradation occurring on a worldwide scale is unprecedented in history.
3. Central banks that formerly ‘capped’ the gold price by dumping gold have stopped selling, and some have turned to buying: The Russian Central Bank is reported to have purchased 300,000 ounces in August. The Chinese Central Bank has expressed an interest in buying the entire 403 tonnes of IMF gold that is up for sale. The Chinese bankers have indicated that they will buy gold ‘during any dips in price.’ Much of the gold on the books of some Central Banks has been leased out. It no longer exists except on the books at those banks. The gold at Fort Knox has not been audited since 1953! The threat of IMF gold coming on-stream caused barely a ripple in the gold price last week!
4. The Chinese government is encouraging its citizens to buy gold. This is a total reversal of the policy that formerly forbade its citizens to own gold. This policy is extremely bullish for gold, as an increasing number of Chinese banks and coin stores will be stocking up in order to have inventory. This inventory takes supply away from the market since it is replaced as soon as it is sold to retail customers.
5. The Chinese government is expressing its dissatisfaction with the US administration for causing the US dollar to drop due to the loose US monetary policy, and for imposing a 25% tariff on Chinese tires. This anger on the part of Chinese officials will translate into increased dumping of US Treasury bills and bonds and converting the proceeds into ‘real stuff’, such as gold and commodities.
6. The huge ‘net short’ position accumulated by the commercial traders and the 2 or 3 US bullion banks will have to be covered. The vast majority of these contracts are now showing a loss and margin calls are mounting.
7. Once the gold price is firmly established above the 1000 level, the hedge funds that own most of the ‘net long’ positions on the Comex will likely add to their positions, using some of the margin money they have accumulated on the way up. This will put further pressure on the 2 – 3 bullion banks to ‘cut bait.’ At the moment the hedge funds have these banks over a barrel.
8. More and more investors are becoming aware of the fact that the GLD and SLV gold and silver ETFs probably do not have as much gold and silver backing them as they should have. There are no regular independent audits conducted on these two ETFs. The next chart in this essay supports this observation. This will cause investors to abandon those ETFs and opt for physical gold.
9. Monetary inflation continues worldwide at double digit levels. Meanwhile the gold supply is limited to an annual increase of about 1.5%. ‘More money chasing fewer goods’ invariably causes those goods to rise in price.
10. Gold mines are a ‘depleting assets’. Each mine has a predictable mine life. Unless new deposits are found, every gold mine eventually faces extinction. According to mining experts, new deposits are not keeping up with the current rates of mine depletion. Production in South Africa has been steadily declining. Environmental concerns in many countries make the production of a gold mine expensive and very time consuming.
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Bullish Estimates Fail to Keep Up With S&P 500 Gain
Strategists at Wall Street’s biggest securities firms can’t keep up with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index after the steepest surge since the 1930s.
The benchmark gauge for U.S. equities climbed 0.7 percent yesterday to 1,071.66, leaving it above all but one of the 10 projections by forecasters in a Bloomberg survey this month, the first time that’s happened in data going back to 1999. The average forecast for the S&P 500 from the strategists is 1,022, about 5 percent below the index’s current level.
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2065100&sid=a._X5cj5iBUY
The benchmark gauge for U.S. equities climbed 0.7 percent yesterday to 1,071.66, leaving it above all but one of the 10 projections by forecasters in a Bloomberg survey this month, the first time that’s happened in data going back to 1999. The average forecast for the S&P 500 from the strategists is 1,022, about 5 percent below the index’s current level.
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2065100&sid=a._X5cj5iBUY
Armageddon, Round Two?
By Michael Panzner on September 23, 2009

In Financial Armageddon, I wrote about “four impending catastrophes”: debt, government guarantees, the retirement system, and derivatives. But well before the first pages of my manuscript saw the light of day, I was particularly concerned about the latter aspect. In fact, I’ll let you in on a little secret: the article I published in November 2005, “The Coming Disaster in the Derivatives Market,” was actually derived from material in my original book proposal, tentatively entitled FWMDs: Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction, after Warren Buffett’s famous remarks on the subject in Berkshire Hathaway’s 2002 annual report.
Eventually, the publisher and I decided that there was a bigger story there, which proved to be far more accurate than anybody (including me) realized at the time, and I set forth my vision of how the derivatives menace would come to interact with the various other threats I saw lurking in the shadows. Yet even with all that has happened so far, it’s hard to ignore the fact that the house of cards that was built on this labyrinthine mass of paper promises remains a serious threat to the financial system and the economy.
To be sure, I’m not the only one who feels this way. Even some of the better known financial experts are worried, as CNBC.com reveals in “Derivatives Could Cause Another Meltdown: Mobius”: When asked by a CNBC viewer what kind of Armageddon could be expected if the derivatives problem is not addressed, Mobius replied: “The same kind of Armageddon that we just had, what we just saw in the last few years has been caused by derivatives.”
The lack of liquidity, transparency, coupled with its sheer size means the derivatives market poses a major risk to financial stability, according to Mobius. The currency derivatives market is especially at risk of causing problems, but interest-rate derivatives also, he said. Mobius thinks that global leaders meeting for the G20 summit in Pittsburgh next week should focus almost solely on the derivatives trade. Debates over how much bankers are paid in bonuses should be bumped down the agenda, he said.
The derivatives market is ten times the total GDP of the world, or $600 trillion, Mobius pointed out. And the market has been responsible for numerous bankruptcies in recent years as companies don’t know what they have on their books and don’t read the fine print, he said. “The scary thing for me as an investor is what a company has in their books. One of the first questions we ask a company is: ‘What derivatives do you have?’ Because so many companies have gotten into deep trouble because of that. Why? Because there’s no transparency, there’s no liquidity,” Mobius said.

In Financial Armageddon, I wrote about “four impending catastrophes”: debt, government guarantees, the retirement system, and derivatives. But well before the first pages of my manuscript saw the light of day, I was particularly concerned about the latter aspect. In fact, I’ll let you in on a little secret: the article I published in November 2005, “The Coming Disaster in the Derivatives Market,” was actually derived from material in my original book proposal, tentatively entitled FWMDs: Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction, after Warren Buffett’s famous remarks on the subject in Berkshire Hathaway’s 2002 annual report.
Eventually, the publisher and I decided that there was a bigger story there, which proved to be far more accurate than anybody (including me) realized at the time, and I set forth my vision of how the derivatives menace would come to interact with the various other threats I saw lurking in the shadows. Yet even with all that has happened so far, it’s hard to ignore the fact that the house of cards that was built on this labyrinthine mass of paper promises remains a serious threat to the financial system and the economy.
To be sure, I’m not the only one who feels this way. Even some of the better known financial experts are worried, as CNBC.com reveals in “Derivatives Could Cause Another Meltdown: Mobius”: When asked by a CNBC viewer what kind of Armageddon could be expected if the derivatives problem is not addressed, Mobius replied: “The same kind of Armageddon that we just had, what we just saw in the last few years has been caused by derivatives.”
The lack of liquidity, transparency, coupled with its sheer size means the derivatives market poses a major risk to financial stability, according to Mobius. The currency derivatives market is especially at risk of causing problems, but interest-rate derivatives also, he said. Mobius thinks that global leaders meeting for the G20 summit in Pittsburgh next week should focus almost solely on the derivatives trade. Debates over how much bankers are paid in bonuses should be bumped down the agenda, he said.
The derivatives market is ten times the total GDP of the world, or $600 trillion, Mobius pointed out. And the market has been responsible for numerous bankruptcies in recent years as companies don’t know what they have on their books and don’t read the fine print, he said. “The scary thing for me as an investor is what a company has in their books. One of the first questions we ask a company is: ‘What derivatives do you have?’ Because so many companies have gotten into deep trouble because of that. Why? Because there’s no transparency, there’s no liquidity,” Mobius said.
FTSE Futures May Gain After Consolidation: Technical Analysis
Futures on the FTSE 100 Index may continue their advance after consolidating near the 5,100 level, according to Commerzbank AG technical analysts who look at price charts to forecast movements.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=au4.nNQjSjRs
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=au4.nNQjSjRs
Treasury 30-Year Yields May Reach June High: Technical Analysis
Thirty-year Treasury yields may climb to the highest since June after forming a so-called double bottom pattern, Citigroup Inc. said, citing technical charts. Trend resistance for 30-year yields at 4.26 percent is “under threat,” Citigroup analysts Tom Fitzpatrick in New York and Shyam Devani in London wrote yesterday in a report. Yields will likely advance toward 4.68 percent, the most since June 12, if they rise above resistance and the double-bottom “neckline” at 4.39 percent, the bank said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aXVS3vamr1nE
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aXVS3vamr1nE
Asia Will Expand Faster This Year, Next, ADB Says
The Asian Development Bank raised its economic growth forecast for the region on strengthening expansions in China, India and Indonesia, and said it’s too early for governments to withdraw stimulus policies. Asia, excluding Japan, will grow 3.9 percent in 2009, faster than a March estimate of 3.4 percent, the Manila-based institution said in a report today. Growth may accelerate in 2010 to 6.4 percent, it said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aLBRz.m4qSHI
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aLBRz.m4qSHI
Rally at risk as long-term investors shun stocks
This partly reflects the confectioner’s turbulent history, but it is also indicative of the changing shape of the European equity market.
A number of recent studies have shown that long-term institutional investors have cut equity allocations by as much as 40pc over the past two years. Many pension funds were net sellers of domestic equities even before the crisis, as they sought to diversify internationally and reduce risk. But by selling into the rally, and not reweighting portfolios in-line with market moves, the shift away from shares has been accelerated.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/breakingviewscom/6218807/Rally-at-risk-as-long-term-investors-shun-stocks.html
A number of recent studies have shown that long-term institutional investors have cut equity allocations by as much as 40pc over the past two years. Many pension funds were net sellers of domestic equities even before the crisis, as they sought to diversify internationally and reduce risk. But by selling into the rally, and not reweighting portfolios in-line with market moves, the shift away from shares has been accelerated.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/breakingviewscom/6218807/Rally-at-risk-as-long-term-investors-shun-stocks.html
The three pseudo bulls on Wall Street
Wall Street would like to think that the tumult of the last 18 months was a blip, that the credit crisis was a momentary anomaly, like the Phillies winning the World Series or the popularity of Lady Gaga.
Clinging to this theory, the bulls point to the market's rally, the burgeoning recovery heralded as "very likely" by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and the capital markets that have churned to life.
http://www.marketwatch.com/m/story/9afe4b3f-f6da-430e-91fb-33f8c6106785/0
Clinging to this theory, the bulls point to the market's rally, the burgeoning recovery heralded as "very likely" by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and the capital markets that have churned to life.
http://www.marketwatch.com/m/story/9afe4b3f-f6da-430e-91fb-33f8c6106785/0
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Morgan Stanley: US Economy Review and Preview This Week
By Ted Wieseman | New York
Treasuries posted significant losses, led by the intermediate part of the curve over the past week - except at the very short end, which was squeezed by a big pending decline in bill supply as Treasury winds down the SFP and quarter-end positioning - as equity and credit markets continued ramping higher and economic data remained solid. Supply was also a problem, with very heavy corporate issuance through the week and another run of record Treasury supply announced for the coming week.
http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/
Treasuries posted significant losses, led by the intermediate part of the curve over the past week - except at the very short end, which was squeezed by a big pending decline in bill supply as Treasury winds down the SFP and quarter-end positioning - as equity and credit markets continued ramping higher and economic data remained solid. Supply was also a problem, with very heavy corporate issuance through the week and another run of record Treasury supply announced for the coming week.
http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil continues to engage in choppy sideway trading below 75.0 and outlook remains neutral for the moment. Question is still on whether price actions from 75.0 are developing into sideway consolidation or a reversal. On the downside, break of 68.02 will build up the case that crude oil has indeed topped out at 75.0. In such case, fall from 75.0 should be resuming for 65.23 support and below. On the upside, above 73.16 will bring a retest of 75.0 high and break will confirm up trend resumption for 76.77 fibonacci level next.
In the bigger picture, there is no change in the view that rise from 33.2 is a correction to whole down trend form 147.27. Question remains on whether such rally has completed at 75.0 already and the signals are so far conflicting. On the one hand, crude oil is still trading above medium term rising trending and thus the rally is still intact. On the other hand, crude has clearly lost upside momentum as seen in bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD and RSI. We'll stay neutral and look forward to a breakout from recent range for guidance.
On the downside, note that a break of 67.05 support will indicate that fall from 75.0 is resuming. By that time, the medium term trend line should be taken out firmly and will solidify the case that rise from 33.2 has completed at 75.0. Deeper decline should then be seen in such case to 58.32 support for confirmation. On the upside, above 75.0 will confirm that rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Nevertheless, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) and bring reversal finally.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil continues to engage in choppy sideway trading below 75.0 and outlook remains neutral for the moment. Question is still on whether price actions from 75.0 are developing into sideway consolidation or a reversal. On the downside, break of 68.02 will build up the case that crude oil has indeed topped out at 75.0. In such case, fall from 75.0 should be resuming for 65.23 support and below. On the upside, above 73.16 will bring a retest of 75.0 high and break will confirm up trend resumption for 76.77 fibonacci level next.
In the bigger picture, there is no change in the view that rise from 33.2 is a correction to whole down trend form 147.27. Question remains on whether such rally has completed at 75.0 already and the signals are so far conflicting. On the one hand, crude oil is still trading above medium term rising trending and thus the rally is still intact. On the other hand, crude has clearly lost upside momentum as seen in bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD and RSI. We'll stay neutral and look forward to a breakout from recent range for guidance.
On the downside, note that a break of 67.05 support will indicate that fall from 75.0 is resuming. By that time, the medium term trend line should be taken out firmly and will solidify the case that rise from 33.2 has completed at 75.0. Deeper decline should then be seen in such case to 58.32 support for confirmation. On the upside, above 75.0 will confirm that rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Nevertheless, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) and bring reversal finally.
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Tue Sep 22 09 Comex Gold (GC)
Gold rebounds strongly ahead of 38.2% retracement of 931.3 to 1025.8. Intraday outlook remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, while another rise might be seen, it now looks like 1033.9 key resistance will hold on first attempt on loss of upside momentum and bring consolidations first. On the downside, below 996.3 minor support will bring fall resumption to 983.2 support and possibly below. But downside is expected to be contained by 61.8% retracement of 931.3 to 1025.8 at 967.4 and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, rise from 681 is tentatively treated as resumption of long term up trend. Sustained break of 1033.9 high will confirm this case and should target 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2 next. While some pull back might be seen in near term before decisive break of 1033.9, downside should be contained well above 931.3 support and bring rally resumption. However, note that a break of 931.3 dampen the bullish view and suggest that rise from 681 has completed. This will indicate indicate that such rise is merely part of the consolidation pattern that started at 1033.9.
Gold rebounds strongly ahead of 38.2% retracement of 931.3 to 1025.8. Intraday outlook remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, while another rise might be seen, it now looks like 1033.9 key resistance will hold on first attempt on loss of upside momentum and bring consolidations first. On the downside, below 996.3 minor support will bring fall resumption to 983.2 support and possibly below. But downside is expected to be contained by 61.8% retracement of 931.3 to 1025.8 at 967.4 and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, rise from 681 is tentatively treated as resumption of long term up trend. Sustained break of 1033.9 high will confirm this case and should target 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2 next. While some pull back might be seen in near term before decisive break of 1033.9, downside should be contained well above 931.3 support and bring rally resumption. However, note that a break of 931.3 dampen the bullish view and suggest that rise from 681 has completed. This will indicate indicate that such rise is merely part of the consolidation pattern that started at 1033.9.
Citigroup Sees Kiwi’s Ceiling at 67.75 Yen: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The New Zealand dollar, which rose to an 11-month high against the yen, is poised to extend its gains, Citigroup Inc. said, citing technical charts.
The currency is set to test its next “key” level of 67.75 yen after breaking above so-called resistance at 65.90 without triggering a sell-off, the bank said. The New Zealand dollar was at 65.98 yen as of 12:42 p.m. in London, after trading at 66.06 today, the strongest since Oct. 7 last year.“Trend support is still in place” for the New Zealand dollar, Citigroup analysts including New York-based Tom Fitzpatrick and London-based Shyam Devani wrote in a report today. “The reverse head and shoulders suggests a rally up to the resistance area around 67.70/75.”
The New Zealand dollar, or kiwi, gained this year against every one of the 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg except the Brazilian real and the South African rand as signs of economic recovery spurred demand for higher-yielding currencies.
A head and shoulders is formed when a currency makes three consecutive peaks, with the middle being the highest. A neckline, which is also a support level, is drawn across the base of the three peaks. Resistance levels are where sell orders may be clustered. Support levels are where buy orders may be concentrated. In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.
The currency is set to test its next “key” level of 67.75 yen after breaking above so-called resistance at 65.90 without triggering a sell-off, the bank said. The New Zealand dollar was at 65.98 yen as of 12:42 p.m. in London, after trading at 66.06 today, the strongest since Oct. 7 last year.“Trend support is still in place” for the New Zealand dollar, Citigroup analysts including New York-based Tom Fitzpatrick and London-based Shyam Devani wrote in a report today. “The reverse head and shoulders suggests a rally up to the resistance area around 67.70/75.”
The New Zealand dollar, or kiwi, gained this year against every one of the 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg except the Brazilian real and the South African rand as signs of economic recovery spurred demand for higher-yielding currencies.
A head and shoulders is formed when a currency makes three consecutive peaks, with the middle being the highest. A neckline, which is also a support level, is drawn across the base of the three peaks. Resistance levels are where sell orders may be clustered. Support levels are where buy orders may be concentrated. In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.
Ichimoku Cloud Shows S&P 500 to Keep Rising: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- A Japanese charting technique flagged the first buy signal for the U.S. equity market in six years last week, a sign that the steepest rally since the 1930s may last, Dolmen Stockbrokers said. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose above the top of the so-called Ichimoku Cloud, according to the weekly Ichimoku chart, which analyzes historical highs and lows. The last time this occurred, the benchmark surged 62 percent from June 2003 to a peak of 1,565.15 in October 2007.
There’s “no more cloud cover over the S&P 500,” Cilline Bain, a Dublin-based technical analyst with Dolmen, wrote in a note yesterday. The breakout is “implying a major shift in the long term trend.”
The S&P 500 has rallied 57 percent since a 12-year low in March amid signs the recession is easing. The advance pushed the index’s valuation to 20 times the operating earnings of its companies from the past year, the most expensive since 2004, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “We do acknowledge that the current pace of ascent is unsustainable, and at some stage there will be a retracement back to cloud support,” Bain said, adding that the index is unlikely to fall below 1,008. It closed at 1,064.66 yesterday.
There’s “no more cloud cover over the S&P 500,” Cilline Bain, a Dublin-based technical analyst with Dolmen, wrote in a note yesterday. The breakout is “implying a major shift in the long term trend.”
The S&P 500 has rallied 57 percent since a 12-year low in March amid signs the recession is easing. The advance pushed the index’s valuation to 20 times the operating earnings of its companies from the past year, the most expensive since 2004, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “We do acknowledge that the current pace of ascent is unsustainable, and at some stage there will be a retracement back to cloud support,” Bain said, adding that the index is unlikely to fall below 1,008. It closed at 1,064.66 yesterday.
Recovery, Dollar Buoy Commodity Prices, Morgan Stanley Says
Commodity prices may be supported in the medium-to-long term on a recovery in the global economy, a weak dollar and investment demand, Wang Qing, chief greater China economist at Morgan Stanley Asia, said today.
The recovery, while “tepid” at the moment, may gain momentum through 2013 and bolster energy and metals, which are closely related to growth, Wang said at a forum in Shanghai.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ad0JkjT21eP0
The Other commodity news's links:
Sugar May Climb Through 30 Cents by Year-End, StanChart Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aPoprlgZOwUE
Gold Investing May Gain From Equity Flight, ETFS Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a2A6.76IUexQ
China Said to Consider Buying Gold From IMF, Market News Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aklIw7I0Di8k
The recovery, while “tepid” at the moment, may gain momentum through 2013 and bolster energy and metals, which are closely related to growth, Wang said at a forum in Shanghai.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ad0JkjT21eP0
The Other commodity news's links:
Sugar May Climb Through 30 Cents by Year-End, StanChart Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aPoprlgZOwUE
Gold Investing May Gain From Equity Flight, ETFS Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a2A6.76IUexQ
China Said to Consider Buying Gold From IMF, Market News Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aklIw7I0Di8k
M&A Boom Signaled for S&P 500 Index on Record Cash
Never before have U.S. companies piled up cash faster compared with interest costs than they are now, setting the stage for a surge in mergers and acquisitions.
As the economy emerges from the worst recession in 70 years, cash flow may rise from the $1.5 trillion reported by the Commerce Department for the year ended in June, according to data compiled by Credit Suisse Group AG and Bloomberg. The amount reached a record in the past 12 months amid the biggest wave of firings since World War II and central bank interest rates near zero percent.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=az6WcLHcWqrU
As the economy emerges from the worst recession in 70 years, cash flow may rise from the $1.5 trillion reported by the Commerce Department for the year ended in June, according to data compiled by Credit Suisse Group AG and Bloomberg. The amount reached a record in the past 12 months amid the biggest wave of firings since World War II and central bank interest rates near zero percent.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=az6WcLHcWqrU
Hedge Funds, Historians Are Winners of Recession: Matthew Lynn
That’s it, then. The global recession is over. At least that’s what Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says. Answering questions last week, the world’s most powerful central banker said the U.S. recession was “very likely over at this point.” Much the same story is being played out in the rest of the world, with the German, French and even U.K. economies gradually recovering from their own slumps.
And yet the biggest shock to the global financial system since the 1930s won’t just leave us with a legacy of lost output and higher unemployment. The recession will reshape the way we think about the economy for a generation. Over time, we will see that the credit crunch caused shifts of power and influence between industries, professions and countries.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aLQvYAhSAVsA
And yet the biggest shock to the global financial system since the 1930s won’t just leave us with a legacy of lost output and higher unemployment. The recession will reshape the way we think about the economy for a generation. Over time, we will see that the credit crunch caused shifts of power and influence between industries, professions and countries.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aLQvYAhSAVsA
Week Ahead: Stock Market Still Trending Higher
The trend for stocks continues to point up and could stay that way through the end of September, even if there are some choppy days.
Increasingly, traders have put aside talk of an imminent pull back and talk more about how fund mangers, who may have been underweight, are being forced to add to positions going into the end of the quarter. That, combined with a lack of selling pressure, has been keeping the stock market buoyant.
Many funds are benchmarked against the S&P 500, which is up more than 16 percent quarter-to-date.In the week ahead, investors are watching the Fed's two-day meeting; fresh housing data, and the Treasury's auction of more than $200 billion in notes and bills. There will also be a lot of focus on the activity of world leaders, who meet first in New York for the UN General Assembly, then at the G-20 in Pittsburgh. President Obama meets Tuesday with China President Hu Jintao, and also with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Japan's new Prime Minister Yikio Hatoyama during the General Assembly.
http://mobile.cnbc.com/inf/infomo?site=cnbcusa&view=us_newsd&feed:a=topstories&feed:c=topstories&feed:i=32920496&all=1
Increasingly, traders have put aside talk of an imminent pull back and talk more about how fund mangers, who may have been underweight, are being forced to add to positions going into the end of the quarter. That, combined with a lack of selling pressure, has been keeping the stock market buoyant.
Many funds are benchmarked against the S&P 500, which is up more than 16 percent quarter-to-date.In the week ahead, investors are watching the Fed's two-day meeting; fresh housing data, and the Treasury's auction of more than $200 billion in notes and bills. There will also be a lot of focus on the activity of world leaders, who meet first in New York for the UN General Assembly, then at the G-20 in Pittsburgh. President Obama meets Tuesday with China President Hu Jintao, and also with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Japan's new Prime Minister Yikio Hatoyama during the General Assembly.
http://mobile.cnbc.com/inf/infomo?site=cnbcusa&view=us_newsd&feed:a=topstories&feed:c=topstories&feed:i=32920496&all=1