(Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co. is turning “less bullish” on emerging-market stocks in the first half of 2010 amid concern central banks will tighten monetary policy to combat accelerating inflation. Investors should be “underweight” in shares that benefit from rising asset prices and domestic consumption, JPMorgan analysts led by Adrian Mowat wrote in a report dated yesterday. They advised investors with “unprotected portfolios” to consider buying put options, or bets that prices will fall below a certain level.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aknZixyEhBr4
ONG Focus - Technical Written by Oil N' Gold
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold is still bounded in tight range above 1081.9 as consolidations continues and intraday bias remains neutral. However, another fall is still expected as long as 1117.8 resistance holds. Current fall from 1163 is expected to continue to resume whole correction form 1227.5 and should target 100% projection of 1227.5 to 1075.2 from 1163 at 1010.7 next. On the upside, above 1117.8 will bring stronger rebound and put 1163 resistance back into focus. In the bigger picture, gold has made a medium term top at 1227.5 and correction from there is likely still in progress to 100% projection of 1227.2 to 1075.2 from 1163 at 1010.7, which is close to 1000 psychological level. However, we'd expect such correction to be contained there at around 1000 psychological level and bring resumption of the whole up trend from 2008 low of 681. A break above 1163 will indicate that such correction has completed and will turn outlook bullish for another high above 1227.5.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, some more sideway trading could be seen in crude oil and another recovery might be seen to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 76.52). Nevertheless, fall fro 83.95 is still in favor to continue as long as 79.16 resistance holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 68.59 to 83.95 at 74.46 will target a retest on 68.59 support. However, note that break of 79.16 will indicate that fall from 83.95 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the upside for retesting this resistance. In the bigger picture, upside momentum is clearly diminishing as seen in bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. However, there is no confirmation that medium term rise has topped out yet as long as 68.59 support holds. Such medium term rise could still continue and above 83.95 will target 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level. Nevertheless, even in such case, we'll continue to look for reversal signal and expect crude oil to top out finally as it approaches 90 level. On the downside, break of 68.59 support will confirm that a medium term top is in place and will turn outlook bearish for a retest on 33.2 low as correction from 147.27 resumes.
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade |
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.4017, 1.3988 and 1.3961(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3944, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3920. Break of the latter would result in 1.3903. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3892. Continuation will give 1.3866.Today's resistance: - 1.4133, 1.4176 and 1.4223(main). Break would give 1.4254, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.4276. Break of the latter would result in 1.4299. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.4331. Continuation will give 1.4356 and 1.4400.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 89.10, 88.66 and 88.22(main). Break would bring 88.07, where correction is possible. Then 87.76, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 87.53. If a strong impulse, we would see 87.31. Continuation would give 87.08.
Today's resistance: - 90.23, 90.47 and 90.81(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 90.90, where also a correction may be. Then 91.18. If a strong impulse, we would see 91.34. Continuation will give 91.78.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 10209.37, 10190.57 and 10168,24(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 10155.70, where correction also can be. Then follows 10140.87. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 10119.30. Continuation will bring 10092.25 and 10068.76.Today's resistance: - 10308.22, 10336.60 and 10350.24(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 10374.40, where a correction may happen. Then follows 10728.70, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 10470.94. Continuation would bring 10496.30 and 10527.12.
Correction Has Already Begun: Portfolio Manager
By: JeeYeon Park CNBC News Associate
Stocks opened lower on Tuesday on China's bank-loan tightening, but a report of rising confidence helped take the edge off. Are the markets already in a correction? David Goerz, chief investment officer at Highmark Capital, and Sarat Sethi, partner and portfolio manager at Douglas C. Lane & Associates, shared their market outlooks.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35077335
Halftime Report: Bullish Tone Cause For Concern?
By: Lee Brodie Producer
On Tuesday, stocks made gains after a handful of earnings ’beats’ and surging consumer confidence gave the bulls a leg up. Although that might seem like two good reasons to buy, at least one trader suggests caution.She finds the bullish tone of the market a cause for concern.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35081788
Oil Could Sink to $40 on Stronger Supply: Economist
By: Robin Knight CNBC Assistant Web Producer
The price of oil could be set to catch investors by surprise and slump to $40 a barrel in 2010 as crude supply outstrips demand, Chris Watling, CEO of Longview Economics, told CNBC late Monday.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35077194
Central Banks May Face Race To Hike Interest Rates
Published: Tuesday, 26 Jan 2010 | 7:24 AM ET
As the global economy climbs out of the crater left behind by the financial system's collapse, central banks in 2010 could end up in a horse race to see who is first to start tightening the reins on growth.In the US, the Federal Reserve is not expected to raise rates until summer at the earliest. Yet the Fed already has begun pulling away the punch bowl of quantitative easing, and could have its interest-rate posture influenced should its global counterparts start tightening ahead of schedule.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34844548
China 200-Day Moving Average Drop ‘Ominous:’ Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- China’s Shanghai Composite Index fell below its 200-day moving average for the first time in two years, signaling further declines for the benchmark measure, according to Schaeffer’s Investment Research.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a7zqZi5gbGJU
U.S. Treasury Yields in ‘Bullish Trend’: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Treasury 10-year yields are likely to fall to the lowest level in a month as a “triple top” formation signals further declines, Royal Bank of Canada said, citing trading patterns. Yields have dropped since rising above 3.85 percent three times last year, and if they fail to hold above so-called support at 3.59 percent are poised to slide to 3.50 percent, said George Davis, chief technical analyst at Canada’s biggest lender in Toronto.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a.12LUJDgJK0
Oil Poised to Bounce to $90 by End of June: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may bounce to near $90 a barrel by the end of the second quarter, according to a technical analysis by Auerbach Grayson, a brokerage in New York. Futures are set to reach $89.84, which corresponds to the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement of the range generated by the record high of $147.27 on July 11, 2008, and the low of $32.40 touched on Dec. 19, 2008, according to Richard Ross, an analyst at Auerbach Grayson.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=anE6E.ePAQlg
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