Fundamental Ekonomi & Emiten/ Sentimen / Teknikal 10 saham unggulan (BUMI/BNBR/UNSP/TLKM/PTBA/INDF/BMRI/KLBF/INCO) + IHSG; Rupiah/Nickel/Tin/Crude Oil/DJIA.
Hasil Workshop Prospek Saham/IHSG & Pasar Global Semester 2 (Juli - Desember 2009). UBI Securities (Code TF). Menara BCA Lt 49, Sabtu 15 - 08 - 2009.
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Friday, August 21, 2009
Dollar May Fall to Five-Week Low Versus Yen: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The dollar may extend its decline against the yen to a five-week low of 91.74, Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. said, citing trading patterns. The U.S. currency’s downtrend versus the yen hasn’t stopped, with “three clear dollar-selling signals starting to light up,” Masashi Hashimoto, a Tokyo-based senior analyst at the bank, said in an interview, citing a daily ichimoku chart.The first signal was the dollar’s fall below the lower end of the ichimoku cloud, which was at 94.38 yen today, according to Bloomberg data. The second signal would be the dollar’s “conversion line” sliding beyond the “base line,” Hashimoto said. Both are almost at the same level today, with the conversion line at 95.42 yen and the base line at 95.44 yen. The third signal would be the dollar’s “lagging span,” which was at 93.90 yen, falling below the current exchange-rate level.
The dollar fell to 93.94 yen as of 12:01 p.m. in Tokyo from 94.19 yen in New York yesterday, and was headed for a second weekly drop versus the yen. The greenback declined to 93.67 yen on Aug. 19, the lowest level since July 23.The initial target for the dollar is the July 22 low of 93.10 yen, Hashimoto said. Should the U.S. currency drop below that support level, it may extend losses to the July 13 low of 91.74 yen, he said. Support is where buy orders may be clustered.An ichimoku chart analyzes the midpoints of historic highs and lows. The conversion line is the same calculation over the past nine trading days. The baseline on the ichimoku chart is the sum of the highest high and the lowest low over the past 26 trading days. A lagging span is the most recent closing price plotted 26 days behind the current level.
The dollar fell to 93.94 yen as of 12:01 p.m. in Tokyo from 94.19 yen in New York yesterday, and was headed for a second weekly drop versus the yen. The greenback declined to 93.67 yen on Aug. 19, the lowest level since July 23.The initial target for the dollar is the July 22 low of 93.10 yen, Hashimoto said. Should the U.S. currency drop below that support level, it may extend losses to the July 13 low of 91.74 yen, he said. Support is where buy orders may be clustered.An ichimoku chart analyzes the midpoints of historic highs and lows. The conversion line is the same calculation over the past nine trading days. The baseline on the ichimoku chart is the sum of the highest high and the lowest low over the past 26 trading days. A lagging span is the most recent closing price plotted 26 days behind the current level.
Singapore Stock Index Set to Fall, DBS Says: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Singapore’s benchmark Straits Time Index is set to fall another 13 percent before finding a so- called support level, according to an “Elliot Wave” analysis by DBS Group Holdings Ltd.A five-month rally in the index peaked at an 11-month high on Aug. 3 when the measure failed to break a resistance point at 2,700 points, DBS analyst Yeo Kee Yan wrote in a report yesterday. The gauge has lost 4.6 percent since then, closing at 2,559.57 yesterday.“A consolidation period follows the completion of a five- wave rally that typically retraces 38.2 percent of the prior gain,” Yeo said. “For the Straits Times index, the 38.2 percent downward retracement is at 2,225.”
The Straits Times Index has risen 76 percent from a five- year low on March 9 amid growing confidence stimulus measures and lower borrowing costs will lift the world out of recession. The Elliot Wave principle is a theory developed by accountant Ralph Nelson Elliott during the Great Depression. He concluded that market swings, or waves, follow a predictable, five-stage structure of three steps forward, two steps back.In addition, the waves share a variety of features: Wave two never falls below the starting level of wave one; wave three is never the shortest; waves one and five tend to be of equal length; and wave sizes are often related by a series of numbers known as the Fibonacci sequence, wherein each number is based on the sum of the two previous ones.
The Straits Times Index has risen 76 percent from a five- year low on March 9 amid growing confidence stimulus measures and lower borrowing costs will lift the world out of recession. The Elliot Wave principle is a theory developed by accountant Ralph Nelson Elliott during the Great Depression. He concluded that market swings, or waves, follow a predictable, five-stage structure of three steps forward, two steps back.In addition, the waves share a variety of features: Wave two never falls below the starting level of wave one; wave three is never the shortest; waves one and five tend to be of equal length; and wave sizes are often related by a series of numbers known as the Fibonacci sequence, wherein each number is based on the sum of the two previous ones.
A Hedge Fund Using Technical Analysis Oust Fundamental Analysis
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ajnv0jXVrVbk
Options Bullish on This Bank Stock
writer, OptionMonster
Shares of Bank of America hover just below 10-month highs, and the options trade suggests long-term bullishness.BAC stock [BAC 17.4509 0.3109 (+1.81%) ] is up 2.5 percent to $17.17. It has made a nice run up from its low below 3 back in March and is up 20 percent for the year. There is significant resistance at the 18 level going back to November, when shares fell from 38 to 10 in less than 2 months. The options action is large and a bit confounding. First, we see what clearly appears to be a bullish vertical calls spread, with 11,500 of the January 2011 30 calls bought for 1.16 and seconds later the same number of the 35 calls were sold for 0.63.
This vertical spread has a net debit of 0.53, which is maximum loss.
The trade will make the profit of 4.47 if BAC is above 35 at that expiration. That is roughly a 900 percent return if the stock doubles in price.The volume at the 30 strike was below open interest, but above OI (open interest) at the 35 strike, and this clearly looks like a single bullish spread.But then a few minutes later, 12,600 of the 2011 25 calls also appeared to be bought, traded in three large blocks — all for 1.97. This too was below open interest and could have been the closing of already-opened positions.
Separately, UBS' agreement with U.S. authorities to hand over details on more than 50,000 customers has lifted share by more than 6 percent, making good on yesterday's short-term call buying.The Swiss bank's stock [UBS 17.57 0.64 (+3.78%) ] price had been hovering near $15 since May, with a few dips and jumps over $16.But buyers stepped up to purchase the Aug 16 calls for $0.20, despite just 2 days to expiration. Now those calls are trading $0.60-0.65, more than a double from Wednesday.
Disclosures:
The author does not have any positions in the companies mentioned.
Shares of Bank of America hover just below 10-month highs, and the options trade suggests long-term bullishness.BAC stock [BAC 17.4509 0.3109 (+1.81%) ] is up 2.5 percent to $17.17. It has made a nice run up from its low below 3 back in March and is up 20 percent for the year. There is significant resistance at the 18 level going back to November, when shares fell from 38 to 10 in less than 2 months. The options action is large and a bit confounding. First, we see what clearly appears to be a bullish vertical calls spread, with 11,500 of the January 2011 30 calls bought for 1.16 and seconds later the same number of the 35 calls were sold for 0.63.
This vertical spread has a net debit of 0.53, which is maximum loss.
The trade will make the profit of 4.47 if BAC is above 35 at that expiration. That is roughly a 900 percent return if the stock doubles in price.The volume at the 30 strike was below open interest, but above OI (open interest) at the 35 strike, and this clearly looks like a single bullish spread.But then a few minutes later, 12,600 of the 2011 25 calls also appeared to be bought, traded in three large blocks — all for 1.97. This too was below open interest and could have been the closing of already-opened positions.
Separately, UBS' agreement with U.S. authorities to hand over details on more than 50,000 customers has lifted share by more than 6 percent, making good on yesterday's short-term call buying.The Swiss bank's stock [UBS 17.57 0.64 (+3.78%) ] price had been hovering near $15 since May, with a few dips and jumps over $16.But buyers stepped up to purchase the Aug 16 calls for $0.20, despite just 2 days to expiration. Now those calls are trading $0.60-0.65, more than a double from Wednesday.
Disclosures:
The author does not have any positions in the companies mentioned.
PIMCO’s Forecasts For The Direction Of U.S. Dollar ETFs
By Tom Lydon on August 21, 2009 | More Posts By Tom Lydon | Author's Website
The printing presses in Washington have been running at full speed in an effort to revive the economy, but it could ultimately have an impact on dollar-focused exchange traded funds (ETFs).According to Pacific Investment Management Corp. (PIMCO), the U.S. dollar is going to weaken as the Federal Reserve pumps large amounts of money into the economy in an effort to salvage it.
* U.S. authorities have pledged a whopping $12.8 trillion to help fight the recession. PIMCO says that the dollar will drop the most against emerging-market counterparts.
* Garfield Reynolds and Wes Goodman for Bloomberg report that PIMCO feels the greenback is losing its status as the world’s reserve currency.
* The dollar as a percentage of global central banks’ foreign reserves increased to 65% in the first three months of the year, proof that the greenback’s status is faltering.
* The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. dollar against other currencies touched 78.823 today, the lowest this week, and is down 12% from March’s high.
The printing presses in Washington have been running at full speed in an effort to revive the economy, but it could ultimately have an impact on dollar-focused exchange traded funds (ETFs).According to Pacific Investment Management Corp. (PIMCO), the U.S. dollar is going to weaken as the Federal Reserve pumps large amounts of money into the economy in an effort to salvage it.
* U.S. authorities have pledged a whopping $12.8 trillion to help fight the recession. PIMCO says that the dollar will drop the most against emerging-market counterparts.
* Garfield Reynolds and Wes Goodman for Bloomberg report that PIMCO feels the greenback is losing its status as the world’s reserve currency.
* The dollar as a percentage of global central banks’ foreign reserves increased to 65% in the first three months of the year, proof that the greenback’s status is faltering.
* The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. dollar against other currencies touched 78.823 today, the lowest this week, and is down 12% from March’s high.
Chart US Treasuries - 10 yr, 20yr, 30yr
You will notice on both the daily and monthly charts, the low angle uptrends are intact and very well defined. On the daily charts you will notice the 45 degree angle downtrends have all been broken and on the 20yr chart there is a bullish volume profile as well. Treasury prices appear to be factoring in a fall in equities and initially I would be expecting an inverse relationship to prevail for the time being - as long as a certain amount of trust remains in the USD. That relationship does not extend to Corporate and Municipal Bonds however, which I expect will move down with equities. Again, as for the USD, the intraday P&F Comex charts are giving a clearer picture of a bullish style accumulation.
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Fri Aug 21 09 06:56 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's break of 73.36 high confirms that medium term rally has resumed. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside for further rally towards 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next. On the downside, below 71.64 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But short term outlook will remain bullish as long as 65.23 support holds.
In the bigger picture, medium term rally from 33.2 is still in progress. But after all, such rise is treated as correction to whole fall from 147.27. Hence, strong resistance is expected to be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) and bring reversal finally. On the downside, below 65.23 support will be an early signal that crude oil has already topped out and will turn focus to 58.32 medium term support for confirmation.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's break of 73.36 high confirms that medium term rally has resumed. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside for further rally towards 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next. On the downside, below 71.64 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But short term outlook will remain bullish as long as 65.23 support holds.
In the bigger picture, medium term rally from 33.2 is still in progress. But after all, such rise is treated as correction to whole fall from 147.27. Hence, strong resistance is expected to be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) and bring reversal finally. On the downside, below 65.23 support will be an early signal that crude oil has already topped out and will turn focus to 58.32 medium term support for confirmation.
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Fri Aug 21 09 06:57 ET
Comex Gold (GC)
Choppy recovery from 931.3 is still in progress and another rise might be seen. But still, upside is expected to be limited below 963.1 and bring fall resumption. Below 931.3 will target 927.6 support first and then 904.8 next. However, break of 963.1 will suggest that fall from 974.3 is completed and is possibly a correction in the rise from 904.8 only. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to retest 974.3 high next.
In the bigger picture, we're still preferring the case that price actions from 1007.7 are developing into consolidations to larger rally from 681, probably in form of triangle. Break of 943.6 support indicates that the final falling leg in the pattern has started and will target 904.8 support. But downside will likely be contained there and the case of deep fall to 865 is not likely. On the upside, sustained break of 1007.7 resistance will indicate that whole rally from 681 has resumed and should target 1033.9 key resistance next.
Comex Gold (GC)
Choppy recovery from 931.3 is still in progress and another rise might be seen. But still, upside is expected to be limited below 963.1 and bring fall resumption. Below 931.3 will target 927.6 support first and then 904.8 next. However, break of 963.1 will suggest that fall from 974.3 is completed and is possibly a correction in the rise from 904.8 only. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to retest 974.3 high next.
In the bigger picture, we're still preferring the case that price actions from 1007.7 are developing into consolidations to larger rally from 681, probably in form of triangle. Break of 943.6 support indicates that the final falling leg in the pattern has started and will target 904.8 support. But downside will likely be contained there and the case of deep fall to 865 is not likely. On the upside, sustained break of 1007.7 resistance will indicate that whole rally from 681 has resumed and should target 1033.9 key resistance next.
Laporan Fundamental & Rumor Emiten 21-08-2009
Rumor China berencana mengetatkan kebijakan capital requirement bank, berperan picu aksi profit-taking di saham Hong Kong dan China.
Pertumbuhan ekonomi China kuartal tiga diperkirakan meningkat 8.5% dengan inflasi yang rendah.
Pertumbuhan ekonomi Taiwan kuartal kedua anjlok 7.54%, membaik dari -10.13% di K1
Akumulasi Saham Japfa
HARGA saham PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk (JPFA) berpotensi menuju level Rp 1.500 dalam jangka pendek. Menurut sumber Investor Daily, penggabungan usaha (merger) antara perseroan dan PT Multi Agro Persada Tbk akan menjadi momentum diangkatnya harga JPFA. Selain itu, kata dia, kabar mengenai rencana akuisisi perusahaan peternakan sapi dan pakan ternak dalam juga bakal mendorong harga JPFA. Pada perdagangan kemarin, JPFA ditutup menguat Rp 10 (1,25%) ke level Rp 810.
Saham CP Prima Berpotensi Rp 150
HARGA saham PT Central Proteinaprima Tbk atau CP Prima (CPRO) berpotensi mencapai level Rp 150. Menurut sumber Investor Daily, pemegang saham perseroan dikabarkan akan membeli kembali (buyback) saham emiten di kisaran harga tersebut.
Selain itu, meningkatnya ekspor udang perseroan tahun ini, seiring pulihnya kembali permintaan dari AS, Eropa, dan Asia juga bakal berdampak positif. Pada perdagangan kemarin, CPRO ditutup naik Rp 3 (3,45%) ke posisi Rp 90.
Perdagangan IHSG di lantai bursa pada Jumat (21/8) ini pada pukul 09.32 naik 6,92 poin (0,3%) ke level 2.335,56 yang dipengaruhi penguatan bursa Wall Street karena data ekonomi AS yang positif. Potensi kenaikan terbatas menjelang masuknya bulan Ramadhan dan pidato Fed Bernanke nanti malam.
Regional menguat (09.55 WIB) : indeks Hang Seng +78.93 20407.85, komposit Shanghai +46.723 2959.60, Nikkei 225 -133.10 10259.31, Kospi +11.96 1,588.35.
EPRF Global mengatakan equity fund emerging market global mencatat net outflow tertinggi di pekan ketiga bulan Agustus, seemntara China mencatat pekan terburuk sejak Q1 2008. Dana yang diinvestasikan di negara maju secara global anjlok US$ 946 juta di pekan 19 Agustus.
AS mengumumkan akan menghentikan program “cash for clunkers” (insentif untuk industri otomotif AS).
AIG AS menyatakan akan membayar dana talangan kepada pemerintah (saham AIG melejit 13%), lebih baik dari perkiraan revisi Leading Indicator (+0.8% di bulan Juni) dan Phily Fed Index AS bulan Agustus (4.2 dari -7.5) dan kenaikan indeks CRB Commodity (inventory minyak API -6.3 juta/barel; inventory AS -8.34 juta barel di pekan lalu).
Data Jobless Claims AS meningkat lebih dari perkiraan (576K),
Central Omega Tunda Akuisisi Tiga Tambang
T Central Omega Resources Tbk (DKFT) menunda akuisisi tiga perusahaan tambang di Kalimantan Selatan tahun ini. Penundaan terkait rencana perseroan untuk mengembangkan perdagangan komoditas pertambangan.
Gapuraprima Incar Tambahan Pendapatan Rp 142 Miliar
PT Perdana Gapuraprima Tbk (GPRA) mengincar tambahan pendapatan tahun ini senilai Rp 142 miliar dari proyek The Belezza di Permata Hijau.
Perdagangan IHSG di lantai bursa pada Jumat (21/8) ini pada pukul 09.32 naik 6,92 poin (0,3%) ke level 2.335,56 yang dipengaruhi penguatan bursa Wall Street karena data ekonomi AS yang positif.
Kesepakatan 15 Bank Soal Bunga Berpotensi Tabrak UU Persaingan Usaha
Nilai tukar rupiah bergerak tenang di kisaran 10.000 per dolar AS. Investor memilih untuk bersikap tenang di tengah pasar saham yang kembali bergelombang. Pada perdagangan Jumat (21/8/2009), rupiah dibuka menguat tipis ke 10.032 per dolar AS, dibandingkan penutupan sebelumnya di 10.065 per dolar AS.
Sementara dolar AS bergerak melemah atas euro menjelang pidato Gubernur Bank Sentral AS Ben Bernanke dalam pertemuan para gubernur bank sentral. Euro bergerak menguat ke 1.4251 dolar, dibandingkan sebelumnya di 1,4221 dolar. Sementara dolar AS menguat tipis atas yen ke 94,17 yen dari sebelumnya di 94,03 yen.
Inilah Saham Pilihan Hari ini
Pada perdagangan saham hari ini ada beberapa saham pilihan seperti saham ITMG dan JSMR dengan kecenderungan IHSG berpotensi melanjutkan penguatan dengan kisaran di 2.272 - 2.380.
Saham ITMG Sebaiknya 'Buy'
PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITM) diprediksi tahun ini akan menggaet laba bersih mencapai 3 kali lipat dari tahun lalu.
SMCB: Holcim Ltd Tingkatkan Target pendapatan Hingga 60%
Holcim Ltd, produsen semen terbesar kedua di dunia, induk usaha SMCB meningkatkan target pendapatan hingga 60% pasca pencapaian target pada 1H09.
INKP: Targetkan Pendapatan 2H09 Naik 10-11%
HEXA: Raup Kontrak Tambahan US$18 Jt, Naikkan Target Penjualan
TLKM: Segera Akuisisi 2 Perusahaan Rp1,1 T
Tarif Tol versus Standar Pelayanan Minimum
Akhir bulan ini, sekitar 14 ruas tol yang sudah dioperasikan akan disesuaikan tarifnya dengan besaran rata-rata 15-20%. Tarif baru tersebut berlaku efektif mulai September 2009.
Juli 2009, Penjualan Hunian di Singapura Pecahkan Rekor
Jumlah penjualan hunian pribadi di Singapura pada Juli 2009 telah memecahkan rekor baru sepanjang masa mencapai 2.767 unit. Ini mengalahkan rekor bulan sebelumnya sebanyak 1.825 unit .
Harga CPO Mulai Terkerek
Harga minyak sawit alias crude palm oil (CPO) di pasar internasional mulai naik. Pukul 17.00 WIB kemarin, harga CPO pengiriman September 2009 di Malaysia Derivatif Exchange Futures (MDEX) bertengger di level RM 2.370 per ton, naik 1,46% ketimbang sehari sebelumnya sebesar RM 2.336 per ton. Harga ini setara US$ 671,29 per ton (1 RM = US$ 0,2832). Mengutip data Bloomberg, harga kontrak CPO untuk pengiriman bulan-bulan selanjutnya juga menanjak. Sebagai contoh untuk pengiriman November, harga CPO melompat 2,2% ke RM 2.349 per ton atau US$ 665 per ton.
Kuartal I 2010, BBJ Rilis Kontrak Berjangka Kakao
Kini, BBJ telah mengantongi izin Badan Pengawas Perdagangan Berjangka Komoditi (Bappebti) untuk meluncurkan produk kontrak baru itu.
DOID Bakal Akuisisi Buma Senilai US$ 550 Juta
Buma merupakan perusahaan kontraktor batubara terbesar kedua di Indonesia
Sumber: Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, Inilah.com, Kontan, Detik.com.
www.strategydesk.co.id
www.universalbroker.co.id
www.harumdanaberjangka.co.id
Pertumbuhan ekonomi China kuartal tiga diperkirakan meningkat 8.5% dengan inflasi yang rendah.
Pertumbuhan ekonomi Taiwan kuartal kedua anjlok 7.54%, membaik dari -10.13% di K1
Akumulasi Saham Japfa
HARGA saham PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk (JPFA) berpotensi menuju level Rp 1.500 dalam jangka pendek. Menurut sumber Investor Daily, penggabungan usaha (merger) antara perseroan dan PT Multi Agro Persada Tbk akan menjadi momentum diangkatnya harga JPFA. Selain itu, kata dia, kabar mengenai rencana akuisisi perusahaan peternakan sapi dan pakan ternak dalam juga bakal mendorong harga JPFA. Pada perdagangan kemarin, JPFA ditutup menguat Rp 10 (1,25%) ke level Rp 810.
Saham CP Prima Berpotensi Rp 150
HARGA saham PT Central Proteinaprima Tbk atau CP Prima (CPRO) berpotensi mencapai level Rp 150. Menurut sumber Investor Daily, pemegang saham perseroan dikabarkan akan membeli kembali (buyback) saham emiten di kisaran harga tersebut.
Selain itu, meningkatnya ekspor udang perseroan tahun ini, seiring pulihnya kembali permintaan dari AS, Eropa, dan Asia juga bakal berdampak positif. Pada perdagangan kemarin, CPRO ditutup naik Rp 3 (3,45%) ke posisi Rp 90.
Perdagangan IHSG di lantai bursa pada Jumat (21/8) ini pada pukul 09.32 naik 6,92 poin (0,3%) ke level 2.335,56 yang dipengaruhi penguatan bursa Wall Street karena data ekonomi AS yang positif. Potensi kenaikan terbatas menjelang masuknya bulan Ramadhan dan pidato Fed Bernanke nanti malam.
Regional menguat (09.55 WIB) : indeks Hang Seng +78.93 20407.85, komposit Shanghai +46.723 2959.60, Nikkei 225 -133.10 10259.31, Kospi +11.96 1,588.35.
EPRF Global mengatakan equity fund emerging market global mencatat net outflow tertinggi di pekan ketiga bulan Agustus, seemntara China mencatat pekan terburuk sejak Q1 2008. Dana yang diinvestasikan di negara maju secara global anjlok US$ 946 juta di pekan 19 Agustus.
AS mengumumkan akan menghentikan program “cash for clunkers” (insentif untuk industri otomotif AS).
AIG AS menyatakan akan membayar dana talangan kepada pemerintah (saham AIG melejit 13%), lebih baik dari perkiraan revisi Leading Indicator (+0.8% di bulan Juni) dan Phily Fed Index AS bulan Agustus (4.2 dari -7.5) dan kenaikan indeks CRB Commodity (inventory minyak API -6.3 juta/barel; inventory AS -8.34 juta barel di pekan lalu).
Data Jobless Claims AS meningkat lebih dari perkiraan (576K),
Central Omega Tunda Akuisisi Tiga Tambang
T Central Omega Resources Tbk (DKFT) menunda akuisisi tiga perusahaan tambang di Kalimantan Selatan tahun ini. Penundaan terkait rencana perseroan untuk mengembangkan perdagangan komoditas pertambangan.
Gapuraprima Incar Tambahan Pendapatan Rp 142 Miliar
PT Perdana Gapuraprima Tbk (GPRA) mengincar tambahan pendapatan tahun ini senilai Rp 142 miliar dari proyek The Belezza di Permata Hijau.
Perdagangan IHSG di lantai bursa pada Jumat (21/8) ini pada pukul 09.32 naik 6,92 poin (0,3%) ke level 2.335,56 yang dipengaruhi penguatan bursa Wall Street karena data ekonomi AS yang positif.
Kesepakatan 15 Bank Soal Bunga Berpotensi Tabrak UU Persaingan Usaha
Nilai tukar rupiah bergerak tenang di kisaran 10.000 per dolar AS. Investor memilih untuk bersikap tenang di tengah pasar saham yang kembali bergelombang. Pada perdagangan Jumat (21/8/2009), rupiah dibuka menguat tipis ke 10.032 per dolar AS, dibandingkan penutupan sebelumnya di 10.065 per dolar AS.
Sementara dolar AS bergerak melemah atas euro menjelang pidato Gubernur Bank Sentral AS Ben Bernanke dalam pertemuan para gubernur bank sentral. Euro bergerak menguat ke 1.4251 dolar, dibandingkan sebelumnya di 1,4221 dolar. Sementara dolar AS menguat tipis atas yen ke 94,17 yen dari sebelumnya di 94,03 yen.
Inilah Saham Pilihan Hari ini
Pada perdagangan saham hari ini ada beberapa saham pilihan seperti saham ITMG dan JSMR dengan kecenderungan IHSG berpotensi melanjutkan penguatan dengan kisaran di 2.272 - 2.380.
Saham ITMG Sebaiknya 'Buy'
PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITM) diprediksi tahun ini akan menggaet laba bersih mencapai 3 kali lipat dari tahun lalu.
SMCB: Holcim Ltd Tingkatkan Target pendapatan Hingga 60%
Holcim Ltd, produsen semen terbesar kedua di dunia, induk usaha SMCB meningkatkan target pendapatan hingga 60% pasca pencapaian target pada 1H09.
INKP: Targetkan Pendapatan 2H09 Naik 10-11%
HEXA: Raup Kontrak Tambahan US$18 Jt, Naikkan Target Penjualan
TLKM: Segera Akuisisi 2 Perusahaan Rp1,1 T
Tarif Tol versus Standar Pelayanan Minimum
Akhir bulan ini, sekitar 14 ruas tol yang sudah dioperasikan akan disesuaikan tarifnya dengan besaran rata-rata 15-20%. Tarif baru tersebut berlaku efektif mulai September 2009.
Juli 2009, Penjualan Hunian di Singapura Pecahkan Rekor
Jumlah penjualan hunian pribadi di Singapura pada Juli 2009 telah memecahkan rekor baru sepanjang masa mencapai 2.767 unit. Ini mengalahkan rekor bulan sebelumnya sebanyak 1.825 unit .
Harga CPO Mulai Terkerek
Harga minyak sawit alias crude palm oil (CPO) di pasar internasional mulai naik. Pukul 17.00 WIB kemarin, harga CPO pengiriman September 2009 di Malaysia Derivatif Exchange Futures (MDEX) bertengger di level RM 2.370 per ton, naik 1,46% ketimbang sehari sebelumnya sebesar RM 2.336 per ton. Harga ini setara US$ 671,29 per ton (1 RM = US$ 0,2832). Mengutip data Bloomberg, harga kontrak CPO untuk pengiriman bulan-bulan selanjutnya juga menanjak. Sebagai contoh untuk pengiriman November, harga CPO melompat 2,2% ke RM 2.349 per ton atau US$ 665 per ton.
Kuartal I 2010, BBJ Rilis Kontrak Berjangka Kakao
Kini, BBJ telah mengantongi izin Badan Pengawas Perdagangan Berjangka Komoditi (Bappebti) untuk meluncurkan produk kontrak baru itu.
DOID Bakal Akuisisi Buma Senilai US$ 550 Juta
Buma merupakan perusahaan kontraktor batubara terbesar kedua di Indonesia
Sumber: Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, Inilah.com, Kontan, Detik.com.
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Potensi Penguatan Euro, Yen dan Pound Terbatas Hari Ini
Technical Analysis
EUR-USD
(+180p) Euro mendapatkan signal positif dari pola bullish reversal dari daily chart selama bertahan diatas channel support 1.4140 dalam sebuah uptrend channel yang seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan. Indikator ADX up, stochastic dead cross dan MACD bullish, seharusnya masih dukung potensi rebound. Support berada di 1.4000/1.4070, Resistance berada di 1.4260/1.4330. Euro telah menyelesaikan wave koreksi abc dalam wave koreksi 4, untuk target 1.4450, selama tidak ditutup dibawah 1.4140. Buy 1.4000 target 1.4150, Buy 1.4140 target 1.4300 stop 1.4070, hold buy
1.4250 target 1.4350 stop 1.4230. sell 1.4350 & 1.4450 target 1.4100 buy break 1.4455 trgt 1.4730. sell break 1.4000 target 1.3750.
USD-JPY
Momentum bearish USDJPY tertahan selama berada dibawah upper channel di 95.85 di daily chart dan kondisi candle yang sebelumnya menunjukkan indikasi bulish reversal. Penutupan dibawah channel di 95.60 akan mengarahkan USDJPY ke target low kemarin di 93.80. Indikator ADX up, stochastic dead cross, MACD bearish, seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan selama bertahan di atas 94.00. Resistance berada di 94.90/95.60, support di 93.50/93.20. Sell 95.60 target 93.50 stop 100p. sell 95.85 target 95.00 stop 60p. Hold Buy 94.00 & Buy 93.40 stop 60p target 95.60 & Hold buy 94.40 target 96.50 stop 93.50.
GBP-USD
(+140p) Pola broadening bullish dan uptrend channel GBP masih valid, diikuti indikator ADX up, stochastic dead cross dan MACD masih berada di teritorial bullish, mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas selama ditutup diatas channel support 1.6320. Buy 1.6430 target 1.6600 stop 1.6370. sell 1.6600 target 1.6400 stop 60p, buy break 1.6640 target 1.6850. Sell 1.6850 target 1.6500 stop 60p. Buy 1.6250 target 1.6550 stop 100p. Sell 1.7050 target 1.6750. Buy 1.6050 target 1.6550.
AUD-USD
(+120p) AUD masih berada dalam uptrend channel dan trend bullish jangka menengah, diikuti pola bullish reversal, sementara indikator ADX terkoreksi, stochastic flat, MACD masih bullish, mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas target 0.8450, selama di bawah 0.8130. Resistance di 0.8350/0.8450, support di 0.8180/0.8100. Hold Buy 0.8300 target 0.8450, sell 0.8450 target 0.8300 & sell 0.8550 stop 0.8620. sell break
0.8000 target 0.7900. Buy 0.8200 target 0.8350.
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EUR-USD
(+180p) Euro mendapatkan signal positif dari pola bullish reversal dari daily chart selama bertahan diatas channel support 1.4140 dalam sebuah uptrend channel yang seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan. Indikator ADX up, stochastic dead cross dan MACD bullish, seharusnya masih dukung potensi rebound. Support berada di 1.4000/1.4070, Resistance berada di 1.4260/1.4330. Euro telah menyelesaikan wave koreksi abc dalam wave koreksi 4, untuk target 1.4450, selama tidak ditutup dibawah 1.4140. Buy 1.4000 target 1.4150, Buy 1.4140 target 1.4300 stop 1.4070, hold buy
1.4250 target 1.4350 stop 1.4230. sell 1.4350 & 1.4450 target 1.4100 buy break 1.4455 trgt 1.4730. sell break 1.4000 target 1.3750.
USD-JPY
Momentum bearish USDJPY tertahan selama berada dibawah upper channel di 95.85 di daily chart dan kondisi candle yang sebelumnya menunjukkan indikasi bulish reversal. Penutupan dibawah channel di 95.60 akan mengarahkan USDJPY ke target low kemarin di 93.80. Indikator ADX up, stochastic dead cross, MACD bearish, seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan selama bertahan di atas 94.00. Resistance berada di 94.90/95.60, support di 93.50/93.20. Sell 95.60 target 93.50 stop 100p. sell 95.85 target 95.00 stop 60p. Hold Buy 94.00 & Buy 93.40 stop 60p target 95.60 & Hold buy 94.40 target 96.50 stop 93.50.
GBP-USD
(+140p) Pola broadening bullish dan uptrend channel GBP masih valid, diikuti indikator ADX up, stochastic dead cross dan MACD masih berada di teritorial bullish, mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas selama ditutup diatas channel support 1.6320. Buy 1.6430 target 1.6600 stop 1.6370. sell 1.6600 target 1.6400 stop 60p, buy break 1.6640 target 1.6850. Sell 1.6850 target 1.6500 stop 60p. Buy 1.6250 target 1.6550 stop 100p. Sell 1.7050 target 1.6750. Buy 1.6050 target 1.6550.
AUD-USD
(+120p) AUD masih berada dalam uptrend channel dan trend bullish jangka menengah, diikuti pola bullish reversal, sementara indikator ADX terkoreksi, stochastic flat, MACD masih bullish, mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas target 0.8450, selama di bawah 0.8130. Resistance di 0.8350/0.8450, support di 0.8180/0.8100. Hold Buy 0.8300 target 0.8450, sell 0.8450 target 0.8300 & sell 0.8550 stop 0.8620. sell break
0.8000 target 0.7900. Buy 0.8200 target 0.8350.
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Momentum kenaikan IHSG Dibatasi Sejumlah Resistance Menjelang Ramadhan
Market Review
IHSG kembali mendapatkan berkah dari kenaikan harga komoditi minyak dan logam kemarin, diikuti peran kenaikan Wall Street hari Rabu dan indeks saham regional Asia yang dipimpin oleh indeks komposit Shanghai yang telah mendekati fase BEAR MARKET sebuah koreksi sebesar 20%. Penguatan mata uang rupiah terhadap dolar
(ditutup di Rp 10,025 kemarin), ikut memberikan sentimen positif kepada saham unggulan yang sensitif terhadap pernguatan rupiah. Kenaikan saham di seluruh sektor, terutama di sektor industri dasar dan perdagangan yang memimpin kenaikan. Sementara positifnya laporan riset dari sejumlah analis asing yang merekomendasikan pembelian saham di pasar emerging, ikut memberikan support. IHSG melonjak 50.887 poin (+2.23%) di level 2.328,639, dengan nilai transaksi sebesar Rp 5,802 triliun. Investor asing mencatat net selling Rp 104 miliar
kemarin dibandingkan net selling Rp 62 miliar pada hari Rabu (19/08).
Indeks saham regional Asia ditutup menguat kemarin, karena indeks saham China menghapus penurunan di hari sebelumnya. Sementara Brambles Ltd dan QBE Insurance Group Ltd, melaporkan hasil earning lebih baik dari perkiraan, diikuti saham Isuzu Motor Ltd dan PetroChina Co menguat tajam. Tertolongnya indeks Shanghai dari Bear Market (penurunan 20% dari tertinggi 4 Agustus) ikut memberikan support.
IHSG Outlook
Ind P/E (x)
EPS
Y/Y
Y/Y Suku
Bunga*
Inflasi*
Y/Y
GDP*
Y/Y
IHSG 15.6 8% +14% 6.50% 2.7% 4.0%
STI 22.0 16% -5.6% 0.69% -0.70% -6.5%
KLCI 14.9 10% +0.1% 2.0% 3.00% -6.2%
SET 13.5 4% -17.0% 1.25% -3.30% -7.10%
SSE 28.9 36% +6.2% 5.31% -1.40% 7.9%
N225 42.5 -1% -23.0% 0.10% -0.10% -3.9%
HSI 23.5 19% -11.8% 0.50% 0.60% -7.80%
DJIA 17.2 3% -15.0% 0.25% -0.7% -3.6%
• Negara Bersangkutan
•
Kemampuan IHSG untuk menguat lebih lanjut hari ini, akan diuji oleh sejumlah faktor dari fundamental ekonomi yang mulai mendapatkan sentimen negatif dari perkiraan inflasi bulan Agustus akan meningkat dari bulan sebelumnya, sehingga dapat membatasi laju penurunan suku bunga BI lebih lanjut, berpotensi menurunkan daya tarik untuk saham domestik di mata investor asing seperti perbankan, property dan infrastruktur. Faktor teknikal yang menunjukkan potensi sebuah koreksi dalam uptrend jangka pendek, dapat membatasi kenaikan IHSG diatas
2,350. Sementara dari sisi inflow, investor asing masih mencatat net selling sebesar Rp 820 miliar dalam 3 hari perdagangan berturut-turut di pekan ini, diikuti penguatan dolar terhadap rupiah ke level 10,100 kemarin, memicu kekhawatiran hot money akan kabur dari pasar modal domestik. Minimnya isu positif dari dalam negeri dan menjelang bulan Ramadhan yang biasanya sepi, dapat membatasi potensi kenaikan IHSG. Meski IHSG mendapatkan support dari sejumlah analis asing yang melihat peluang penurunan di indeks saham regional merupakan peluang “Buy on Weakness”, diikuti imbas kenaikan harga komoditi (minyak sentuh $ 72.84) positif untuk saham komoditi dan sentiment positif dari lebih baik dari perkiraan data ekonomi AS kemarin.
Stock Picks: Average last 8 week +62.23%. Target 10 - 30%, Risk <-10%
Close Buy Today : BUMI/ELTY/BNBR/DEWA, ASII, HEXA, ITMG, ANTM, PTBA,
WIKA, INCO, UNSP, SGRO, INDF, BMRI, BBRI, AALI, JSMR, FREN, MNCN, SMGR.
Stock Picks:
• BISI : Buy target Rp 3,000
• DOID : Hold target Rp 2,150
Global Outlook
Indeks saham global hari ini mendapatkan support dari sejumlah sentiment positif seperti laporan AIG AS menyatakan akan membayar dana talangan kepada pemerintah (saham AIG melejit 13%), lebih baik dari perkiraan
revisi Leading Indicator (+0.8% di bulan Juni) dan Phily Fed Index AS bulan Agustus (4.2 dari -7.5) dan kenaikan indeks CRB Commodity (inventory minyak API -6.3 juta/barel; inventory AS -8.34 juta barel di pekan lalu).
Meski potensi kenaikan indeks global terbatas setelah data Jobless Claims AS meningkat lebih dari perkiraan (576K), mortgage delinquencies meningkat di Q2 2009, diikuti pernyataan Ex Chief FDIC Bill Isaac bahwa bank AS yang mengalami kebangkrutan di tahun ini akan meningkat (total 77 bank sejak awal tahun). Bangkitnya indeks Shanghai dari resiko Bear Market (penurunan 20%) setelah BOA’s Merrill Lynch mengatakan saham China akan rebound dari penurunannya karena prospek earning akan melampaui perkiraan dan China akan mempertahankan suku bunga
pinjaman, seharusnya masih memberikan support kepada indeks global.
Technical Analysis:
Potensi kenaikan IHSG dapat tertahan oleh adanya downtrend channel dan formasi rounding top di daily chart, meski menunjukkan pola bullish harami (low reliability bullish reversal) dan MACD yang masih berada dalam teritorial bullish. Sementara indikator ADX yang masih lemah, 5 & 10 MA (2,345 & 2,355) crossing down dan ditutup dibawah 2,359 (bearish upper channel) yang dapat membatasi potensi kenaikan, dapat mendorong UBI revisi target 2,425 periode 3 bulan hingga September. Momentum bearish dapat meningkat jika IHSG ditutup dibawah 2,278 (support channel). Hitungan EW menunjukkan IHSG saat ini berada dalam c.w iii/a selama level 2,351 tidak terlampaui, untuk target 2,220 (1.61 wave i) dalam wave koreksi 4) dalam siklus (4) / B.
Resistance: 2390.10/2364.35/2355.42/2346.49. PP 2312.85
Support : 2303.92/2294.99/2278.17/2261.34
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IHSG kembali mendapatkan berkah dari kenaikan harga komoditi minyak dan logam kemarin, diikuti peran kenaikan Wall Street hari Rabu dan indeks saham regional Asia yang dipimpin oleh indeks komposit Shanghai yang telah mendekati fase BEAR MARKET sebuah koreksi sebesar 20%. Penguatan mata uang rupiah terhadap dolar
(ditutup di Rp 10,025 kemarin), ikut memberikan sentimen positif kepada saham unggulan yang sensitif terhadap pernguatan rupiah. Kenaikan saham di seluruh sektor, terutama di sektor industri dasar dan perdagangan yang memimpin kenaikan. Sementara positifnya laporan riset dari sejumlah analis asing yang merekomendasikan pembelian saham di pasar emerging, ikut memberikan support. IHSG melonjak 50.887 poin (+2.23%) di level 2.328,639, dengan nilai transaksi sebesar Rp 5,802 triliun. Investor asing mencatat net selling Rp 104 miliar
kemarin dibandingkan net selling Rp 62 miliar pada hari Rabu (19/08).
Indeks saham regional Asia ditutup menguat kemarin, karena indeks saham China menghapus penurunan di hari sebelumnya. Sementara Brambles Ltd dan QBE Insurance Group Ltd, melaporkan hasil earning lebih baik dari perkiraan, diikuti saham Isuzu Motor Ltd dan PetroChina Co menguat tajam. Tertolongnya indeks Shanghai dari Bear Market (penurunan 20% dari tertinggi 4 Agustus) ikut memberikan support.
IHSG Outlook
Ind P/E (x)
EPS
Y/Y
Y/Y Suku
Bunga*
Inflasi*
Y/Y
GDP*
Y/Y
IHSG 15.6 8% +14% 6.50% 2.7% 4.0%
STI 22.0 16% -5.6% 0.69% -0.70% -6.5%
KLCI 14.9 10% +0.1% 2.0% 3.00% -6.2%
SET 13.5 4% -17.0% 1.25% -3.30% -7.10%
SSE 28.9 36% +6.2% 5.31% -1.40% 7.9%
N225 42.5 -1% -23.0% 0.10% -0.10% -3.9%
HSI 23.5 19% -11.8% 0.50% 0.60% -7.80%
DJIA 17.2 3% -15.0% 0.25% -0.7% -3.6%
• Negara Bersangkutan
•
Kemampuan IHSG untuk menguat lebih lanjut hari ini, akan diuji oleh sejumlah faktor dari fundamental ekonomi yang mulai mendapatkan sentimen negatif dari perkiraan inflasi bulan Agustus akan meningkat dari bulan sebelumnya, sehingga dapat membatasi laju penurunan suku bunga BI lebih lanjut, berpotensi menurunkan daya tarik untuk saham domestik di mata investor asing seperti perbankan, property dan infrastruktur. Faktor teknikal yang menunjukkan potensi sebuah koreksi dalam uptrend jangka pendek, dapat membatasi kenaikan IHSG diatas
2,350. Sementara dari sisi inflow, investor asing masih mencatat net selling sebesar Rp 820 miliar dalam 3 hari perdagangan berturut-turut di pekan ini, diikuti penguatan dolar terhadap rupiah ke level 10,100 kemarin, memicu kekhawatiran hot money akan kabur dari pasar modal domestik. Minimnya isu positif dari dalam negeri dan menjelang bulan Ramadhan yang biasanya sepi, dapat membatasi potensi kenaikan IHSG. Meski IHSG mendapatkan support dari sejumlah analis asing yang melihat peluang penurunan di indeks saham regional merupakan peluang “Buy on Weakness”, diikuti imbas kenaikan harga komoditi (minyak sentuh $ 72.84) positif untuk saham komoditi dan sentiment positif dari lebih baik dari perkiraan data ekonomi AS kemarin.
Stock Picks: Average last 8 week +62.23%. Target 10 - 30%, Risk <-10%
Close Buy Today : BUMI/ELTY/BNBR/DEWA, ASII, HEXA, ITMG, ANTM, PTBA,
WIKA, INCO, UNSP, SGRO, INDF, BMRI, BBRI, AALI, JSMR, FREN, MNCN, SMGR.
Stock Picks:
• BISI : Buy target Rp 3,000
• DOID : Hold target Rp 2,150
Global Outlook
Indeks saham global hari ini mendapatkan support dari sejumlah sentiment positif seperti laporan AIG AS menyatakan akan membayar dana talangan kepada pemerintah (saham AIG melejit 13%), lebih baik dari perkiraan
revisi Leading Indicator (+0.8% di bulan Juni) dan Phily Fed Index AS bulan Agustus (4.2 dari -7.5) dan kenaikan indeks CRB Commodity (inventory minyak API -6.3 juta/barel; inventory AS -8.34 juta barel di pekan lalu).
Meski potensi kenaikan indeks global terbatas setelah data Jobless Claims AS meningkat lebih dari perkiraan (576K), mortgage delinquencies meningkat di Q2 2009, diikuti pernyataan Ex Chief FDIC Bill Isaac bahwa bank AS yang mengalami kebangkrutan di tahun ini akan meningkat (total 77 bank sejak awal tahun). Bangkitnya indeks Shanghai dari resiko Bear Market (penurunan 20%) setelah BOA’s Merrill Lynch mengatakan saham China akan rebound dari penurunannya karena prospek earning akan melampaui perkiraan dan China akan mempertahankan suku bunga
pinjaman, seharusnya masih memberikan support kepada indeks global.
Technical Analysis:
Potensi kenaikan IHSG dapat tertahan oleh adanya downtrend channel dan formasi rounding top di daily chart, meski menunjukkan pola bullish harami (low reliability bullish reversal) dan MACD yang masih berada dalam teritorial bullish. Sementara indikator ADX yang masih lemah, 5 & 10 MA (2,345 & 2,355) crossing down dan ditutup dibawah 2,359 (bearish upper channel) yang dapat membatasi potensi kenaikan, dapat mendorong UBI revisi target 2,425 periode 3 bulan hingga September. Momentum bearish dapat meningkat jika IHSG ditutup dibawah 2,278 (support channel). Hitungan EW menunjukkan IHSG saat ini berada dalam c.w iii/a selama level 2,351 tidak terlampaui, untuk target 2,220 (1.61 wave i) dalam wave koreksi 4) dalam siklus (4) / B.
Resistance: 2390.10/2364.35/2355.42/2346.49. PP 2312.85
Support : 2303.92/2294.99/2278.17/2261.34
www.strategydesk.co.id
www.universalbroker.co.id (Code TF)
Laju Kenaikan Regional Akan Dibatasi Porfit-Taking Menjelang Fed Bernanke
Laporan Pasar Analisa Teknikal Grafik Teknikal
Nikkei Futures Kontrak September (SSIU9) Indeks Nikkei ditutup melonjak 1,76% kemarin, menjauhi level terendahnya dalam 3 pekan terakhir. Penguatan indeks didorong oleh reboundnnya bursa Cina dan saham-saham komoditas menyusul penguatan harga minyak dunia ke $72 per barel. Indeks Nikkei .N225 ditutup naik 179,41 poin, atau 1,76%, ke posisi 10.383,41. Dalam perdagangan akhir pekan ini, indeks Nikkei diperkirakan akan mengalami kenaikan menyusul indikasi pertumbuhan ekonomi dan membaiknya sektor manufaktur AS. Namun, laju indeks Nikkei kemungkinan terhambat karena penguatan yen terhadap dollar. Selain itu, pasar masih diselimuti kekhawatiran atas anjloknya bursa Cina, kendati kemarin sempat rebound. Indeks dapat ditutup diatas 50.0% FR di 10317 dan
pola candle long bullish yang masih berada di atas channel support 10.191 memberikan support kepada
indeks. Indikator ADX menurun, MACD dead cross, stochastic crossing down, seharusnya membatasi
potensi kenaikan hari ini. EW menunjukkan Nikkei berada di wave koreksi iv dalam a. Resistance di
10483 (38.2% FR))/1010632 (100.0 FR). Support 10200 (channel support)/10150 (76.4% FR). Perkiraan range
hari ini 10200-10450. Rekomendasi Sell 10450 target 10150 stp 100p. Buy 10,000 target 10450 stop 100p, Buy 10200 target 10500 stop 100p, buy 9850 target 10200. (+50-100p)
Kospi Futures Kontrak September (KSU9)
Indeks Kospi mencatat penguatan hampir 2% di akhir perdagangan kemarin, dipicu naiknya saham bank
Shinhan Financial Group. Selain itu, saham teknologi dan otomotif yang melanjutkan tren penguatannya turut
memberi kontribusi atas positifnya indeks. Indeks Kospi .KS11 ditutup menguat 30,43 poin, atau 1.97%, ke posisi
1.576,39 poin. Indeks Kospi masih bertahan di jalur positifnya di awal perdagangan hari ini, menyusul rallynya indeks utama Wall Street semalam untuk kedua kalinya. Penguatan indeks juga dipicu Hynix Semiconductor
setelah Daiwa naikkan target harga saham itu. Dalam chart 4-jam, indeks masih berada dalam uptrend channel dan ascending triangle, terutama setelah menembus trendline di 203.48. Sementara stochastic crossover, MACD bullish dan ADX terkoreksi, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas dan memberikan signal bullish continuation.
Resistance di 206.60/209.50 (middle line). Support di 197.80/201.20. Rekomendasi Buy 198.00 target 203.00 stop 100p, buy 203.60 target 205.50, Sell break 203.00 target 197.50 stop 60p. Buy break 206.70 target 209.50 stop 50p. Buy sell 209.50 target 205.00 stop 100p. (+190-30p)
Hang Seng Futures Kontrak Agustus (HSIQ9)
Indeks Hang Seng berhasil bangkit hari ini menyusul rallnya indeks Shanghai. Namun, kejatuhan saham China
Mobile menghambat laju indeks menyusul laporan keuangannya yang mengecewakan pada kuartal kedua tahun ini. China Mobile jatuh 0,2% ke posisi HK$82,85, setelah mengumumkan labanya turun 1,6% di kuartal kedua, karena tingginya persaingan di industri telekomunikasi Cina. Indeks Hang Seng .HSI ditutup melonjak 374,63 poin, atau 1,88%, ke posisi 20.328,86. Penguatan indeks Hang Seng kembali tertahan di akhir perdagangan pekan ini, dimana beberapa bursa regional mulai menunjukkan koreksi seiring memudarnya harapan pemulihan ekonomi global. Namun, pelaku pasar dalam belakangan ini terfokus pada pergerakan bursa Cina. Dalam chart 4-jam, indeks kembali menunjukkan signal negatif dari candle long legged doji dan ditutup dibawah channel support di 20057, di tengah
breakoutnya pola head & shoulder, masih dukung bearish continuation. Setelah neckline d di 20431 seharusnya picu perkiraan target penurunan ke 19220. Stochastic dan MACD terkoreksi, ADX menurun, mendukung potensi penurunan lebih lanjut. Support di 20122/19780 (lower low). Resistance 20500/20710. Hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan koreksi iii/a dalam wave 4) dalam subwave motive 4 / B. Rekomendasi : Buy 19800 target 20200 stop 100 p. Buy break 20000 target 20400 stop 19770. Sell 20100 target 19700 stop 19850. Sell break 19750 target 19600. Sell 20650 target 20250 stop 100p, (-100+150p). Buy break 20380 target 20650
Nikkei Futures Kontrak September (SSIU9) Indeks Nikkei ditutup melonjak 1,76% kemarin, menjauhi level terendahnya dalam 3 pekan terakhir. Penguatan indeks didorong oleh reboundnnya bursa Cina dan saham-saham komoditas menyusul penguatan harga minyak dunia ke $72 per barel. Indeks Nikkei .N225 ditutup naik 179,41 poin, atau 1,76%, ke posisi 10.383,41. Dalam perdagangan akhir pekan ini, indeks Nikkei diperkirakan akan mengalami kenaikan menyusul indikasi pertumbuhan ekonomi dan membaiknya sektor manufaktur AS. Namun, laju indeks Nikkei kemungkinan terhambat karena penguatan yen terhadap dollar. Selain itu, pasar masih diselimuti kekhawatiran atas anjloknya bursa Cina, kendati kemarin sempat rebound. Indeks dapat ditutup diatas 50.0% FR di 10317 dan
pola candle long bullish yang masih berada di atas channel support 10.191 memberikan support kepada
indeks. Indikator ADX menurun, MACD dead cross, stochastic crossing down, seharusnya membatasi
potensi kenaikan hari ini. EW menunjukkan Nikkei berada di wave koreksi iv dalam a. Resistance di
10483 (38.2% FR))/1010632 (100.0 FR). Support 10200 (channel support)/10150 (76.4% FR). Perkiraan range
hari ini 10200-10450. Rekomendasi Sell 10450 target 10150 stp 100p. Buy 10,000 target 10450 stop 100p, Buy 10200 target 10500 stop 100p, buy 9850 target 10200. (+50-100p)
Kospi Futures Kontrak September (KSU9)
Indeks Kospi mencatat penguatan hampir 2% di akhir perdagangan kemarin, dipicu naiknya saham bank
Shinhan Financial Group. Selain itu, saham teknologi dan otomotif yang melanjutkan tren penguatannya turut
memberi kontribusi atas positifnya indeks. Indeks Kospi .KS11 ditutup menguat 30,43 poin, atau 1.97%, ke posisi
1.576,39 poin. Indeks Kospi masih bertahan di jalur positifnya di awal perdagangan hari ini, menyusul rallynya indeks utama Wall Street semalam untuk kedua kalinya. Penguatan indeks juga dipicu Hynix Semiconductor
setelah Daiwa naikkan target harga saham itu. Dalam chart 4-jam, indeks masih berada dalam uptrend channel dan ascending triangle, terutama setelah menembus trendline di 203.48. Sementara stochastic crossover, MACD bullish dan ADX terkoreksi, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas dan memberikan signal bullish continuation.
Resistance di 206.60/209.50 (middle line). Support di 197.80/201.20. Rekomendasi Buy 198.00 target 203.00 stop 100p, buy 203.60 target 205.50, Sell break 203.00 target 197.50 stop 60p. Buy break 206.70 target 209.50 stop 50p. Buy sell 209.50 target 205.00 stop 100p. (+190-30p)
Hang Seng Futures Kontrak Agustus (HSIQ9)
Indeks Hang Seng berhasil bangkit hari ini menyusul rallnya indeks Shanghai. Namun, kejatuhan saham China
Mobile menghambat laju indeks menyusul laporan keuangannya yang mengecewakan pada kuartal kedua tahun ini. China Mobile jatuh 0,2% ke posisi HK$82,85, setelah mengumumkan labanya turun 1,6% di kuartal kedua, karena tingginya persaingan di industri telekomunikasi Cina. Indeks Hang Seng .HSI ditutup melonjak 374,63 poin, atau 1,88%, ke posisi 20.328,86. Penguatan indeks Hang Seng kembali tertahan di akhir perdagangan pekan ini, dimana beberapa bursa regional mulai menunjukkan koreksi seiring memudarnya harapan pemulihan ekonomi global. Namun, pelaku pasar dalam belakangan ini terfokus pada pergerakan bursa Cina. Dalam chart 4-jam, indeks kembali menunjukkan signal negatif dari candle long legged doji dan ditutup dibawah channel support di 20057, di tengah
breakoutnya pola head & shoulder, masih dukung bearish continuation. Setelah neckline d di 20431 seharusnya picu perkiraan target penurunan ke 19220. Stochastic dan MACD terkoreksi, ADX menurun, mendukung potensi penurunan lebih lanjut. Support di 20122/19780 (lower low). Resistance 20500/20710. Hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan koreksi iii/a dalam wave 4) dalam subwave motive 4 / B. Rekomendasi : Buy 19800 target 20200 stop 100 p. Buy break 20000 target 20400 stop 19770. Sell 20100 target 19700 stop 19850. Sell break 19750 target 19600. Sell 20650 target 20250 stop 100p, (-100+150p). Buy break 20380 target 20650
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Oil May Pass 2009 High as Contract Expires: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil futures in New York may rise to the highest this year after the September contract expires today, setting a platform for further gains, according to technical analysis from Petromatrix GmbH. October futures will become the front-month contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange from tomorrow after September futures expire. If October closes at its current level of around $73.52 a barrel, it will take oil for the month nearest delivery above this year’s highest closing and intra-day prices “WTI is now at a very critical level,” said Olivier Jakob, managing director of Zug, Switzerland-base Petromatrix. “The WTI September contract expires today and one needs to totally take it out of the radar screen as the continuous charts will move tomorrow to the October front line.”
October futures closed yesterday at $73.83 a barrel, up $2.74, or 3.9 percent, according to Bloomberg data. Front-month futures closed at a year-to-date high of $72.68 a barrel on June 11 and traded at an intra-day high of $73.38 on June 30. “If October WTI is not bought back lower than $72.68 a barrel by the close of tonight then we are looking at a break of recent highs on the continuous charts,” Jakob said.
Oil has risen 62 percent this year on record OPEC production cuts and speculation that a recovery in the global economy will spur a rebound in fuel demand.
October futures closed yesterday at $73.83 a barrel, up $2.74, or 3.9 percent, according to Bloomberg data. Front-month futures closed at a year-to-date high of $72.68 a barrel on June 11 and traded at an intra-day high of $73.38 on June 30. “If October WTI is not bought back lower than $72.68 a barrel by the close of tonight then we are looking at a break of recent highs on the continuous charts,” Jakob said.
Oil has risen 62 percent this year on record OPEC production cuts and speculation that a recovery in the global economy will spur a rebound in fuel demand.
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Aug 20 09 05:47 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil rebounded further to as high as 72.80 so far. As discussed before, the three wave structure of the fall from 72.84 to 65.23 argues that it's merely a correction in the rise from 58.32 only. Break of 72.84 resistance will indicate that crude oil's rally is still in progress for another high above 73.36. On the downside, below 68.04 will flip intraday bias back to the downside and break of 65.23 will revive the bearish case that crude oil has topped out at 73.36 already and will bring decline to 62.70 support first and then 58.32 key level.
In the bigger picture, the stronger than expected rebound from 65.23 dampens the view that rise from 58.32 has completed. Further rise could be seen to above 73.36. But still, since such rally from 33.2 is treated as correction to whole fall from 147.27, strong resistance is expected to be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) and bring reversal finally. On the downside, below 65.23 support will revive the case that crude oil has topped already and will turn focus back to 58.32 support for confirmation.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil rebounded further to as high as 72.80 so far. As discussed before, the three wave structure of the fall from 72.84 to 65.23 argues that it's merely a correction in the rise from 58.32 only. Break of 72.84 resistance will indicate that crude oil's rally is still in progress for another high above 73.36. On the downside, below 68.04 will flip intraday bias back to the downside and break of 65.23 will revive the bearish case that crude oil has topped out at 73.36 already and will bring decline to 62.70 support first and then 58.32 key level.
In the bigger picture, the stronger than expected rebound from 65.23 dampens the view that rise from 58.32 has completed. Further rise could be seen to above 73.36. But still, since such rally from 33.2 is treated as correction to whole fall from 147.27, strong resistance is expected to be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) and bring reversal finally. On the downside, below 65.23 support will revive the case that crude oil has topped already and will turn focus back to 58.32 support for confirmation.
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Aug 20 09 05:49 ET
Comex Gold (GC)
Intraday bias in gold remains neutral for the moment as consolidation from 931.3 is still in progress. While another rise cannot be ruled out, upside is expected to be limited below 963.1 and bring fall resumption. Below 931.3 will target 927.6 support first and then 904.8 next. However, break of 963.1 will suggest that fall from 974.3 is completed and is possibly a correction in the rise from 904.8 only. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to retest 974.3 high next.
In the bigger picture, we're still preferring the case that price actions from 1007.7 are developing into consolidations to larger rally from 681, probably in form of triangle. Break of 943.6 support indicates that the final falling leg in the pattern has started and will target 904.8 support. But downside will likely be contained there and the case of deep fall to 865 is not likely. On the upside, sustained break of 1007.7 resistance will indicate that whole rally from 681 has resumed and should target 1033.9 key resistance next.
Comex Gold (GC)
Intraday bias in gold remains neutral for the moment as consolidation from 931.3 is still in progress. While another rise cannot be ruled out, upside is expected to be limited below 963.1 and bring fall resumption. Below 931.3 will target 927.6 support first and then 904.8 next. However, break of 963.1 will suggest that fall from 974.3 is completed and is possibly a correction in the rise from 904.8 only. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to retest 974.3 high next.
In the bigger picture, we're still preferring the case that price actions from 1007.7 are developing into consolidations to larger rally from 681, probably in form of triangle. Break of 943.6 support indicates that the final falling leg in the pattern has started and will target 904.8 support. But downside will likely be contained there and the case of deep fall to 865 is not likely. On the upside, sustained break of 1007.7 resistance will indicate that whole rally from 681 has resumed and should target 1033.9 key resistance next.
S&P 500 Likely to Hold Gains Since Mid-July: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is unlikely to fall more than 4 percent from yesterday’s close after suffering its biggest drop in six weeks on Aug. 17, according to Vermilion Capital Management LLC.The benchmark index for U.S. stocks probably will remain above 950 points because it defied a chart pattern in May and June that signaled losses were imminent, according to said David Nicoski, Vermilion’s chief technical strategist. Technical analysts base their predictions on patterns in price charts.
From May 1 to July 10, the S&P 500 made a series of three peaks, with the highest occurring in the middle on June 12. The pattern is viewed as a signal that the market’s rally is about to reverse, and it didn’t, Nicoski said. The S&P 500 has climbed 13 percent since. “The failure of a bearish pattern is extremely bullish,” said Nicoski, who is based in Edina, Minnesota. “There’s a significant amount of support underneath this latest rally.”
The S&P Midcap 400 Index and the Russell 2000 Index have shown similar price trends, indicating any declines in those measures are likely to be limited as well, Nicoski said. The 950 level that Nicoski expects will provide support for the S&P 500 marks the high end of a second chart pattern that began in November. The index fell to the lowest of three troughs on March 9, rebounding to about 950 after each. It gained as much as 15 percent from a two-month low on July 10 and rose 1 percent to 989.67 yesterday.
Limited Gains
Most industries, including financial companies, have shown evidence of forming “bases” from which they can rally, Nicoski said. Insurers such as Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. and Lincoln National Corp. may help foretell the market’s direction because exposure to financial assets made them the last group to recover in previous bear markets, Nicoski said. While the charts suggest potential stock losses may be limited, gains may be as well during the “seasonally weak” months of September and October, Nicoski added. History shows that U.S. investors lose the most in September. The S&P 500 fell 1.3 percent on average since 1928 that month, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Stocks May Fall 4-5%, Dow 8,800: Portfolio Manager
By: CNBC.com
Stock markets are due for a short-term correction of four or five percent, King Lip, portfolio manager at Baker Avenue Asset Management, said Wednesday. But he remains positive on the market for the long term."We remain very bullish on the market long term," Lip told CNBC. "In the short-term we actually think we're maybe due for a correction, somewhere in the neighborhood of maybe four or five percent. But we think it'll be a modest retrenchment and it actually will be a good opportunity for investors to buy stocks who have been on the sidelines."
He sees the Dow falling to 8,800-8,900 in the near term.
"The market has overshot just a little bit on the upside. The re-evaluation of the strength of the consumer will definitely come into play," he said. "And secondly, it's just about profit-taking. Investors have made a lot of money since the March lows and taking some profits off the table makes a lot of sense right now."
Lip acknowledged that short-selling in the market has dropped in recent weeks.
"Recent short interest actually has been falling. It rose the last two months, but within the last few weeks short interest has actually fallen," he told "Squawk Box Asia."Lip sees foreign and emerging markets outperforming the U.S. as he sees a slowdown in U.S. domestic growth hampering the economic recovery."We do think that foreign market and emerging markets will likely outperform the U.S. domestic market ... there's a lot of repairs that need to be in the U.S. economy which I believe will actually slowdown US domestic growth," he said.
From May 1 to July 10, the S&P 500 made a series of three peaks, with the highest occurring in the middle on June 12. The pattern is viewed as a signal that the market’s rally is about to reverse, and it didn’t, Nicoski said. The S&P 500 has climbed 13 percent since. “The failure of a bearish pattern is extremely bullish,” said Nicoski, who is based in Edina, Minnesota. “There’s a significant amount of support underneath this latest rally.”
The S&P Midcap 400 Index and the Russell 2000 Index have shown similar price trends, indicating any declines in those measures are likely to be limited as well, Nicoski said. The 950 level that Nicoski expects will provide support for the S&P 500 marks the high end of a second chart pattern that began in November. The index fell to the lowest of three troughs on March 9, rebounding to about 950 after each. It gained as much as 15 percent from a two-month low on July 10 and rose 1 percent to 989.67 yesterday.
Limited Gains
Most industries, including financial companies, have shown evidence of forming “bases” from which they can rally, Nicoski said. Insurers such as Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. and Lincoln National Corp. may help foretell the market’s direction because exposure to financial assets made them the last group to recover in previous bear markets, Nicoski said. While the charts suggest potential stock losses may be limited, gains may be as well during the “seasonally weak” months of September and October, Nicoski added. History shows that U.S. investors lose the most in September. The S&P 500 fell 1.3 percent on average since 1928 that month, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Stocks May Fall 4-5%, Dow 8,800: Portfolio Manager
By: CNBC.com
Stock markets are due for a short-term correction of four or five percent, King Lip, portfolio manager at Baker Avenue Asset Management, said Wednesday. But he remains positive on the market for the long term."We remain very bullish on the market long term," Lip told CNBC. "In the short-term we actually think we're maybe due for a correction, somewhere in the neighborhood of maybe four or five percent. But we think it'll be a modest retrenchment and it actually will be a good opportunity for investors to buy stocks who have been on the sidelines."
He sees the Dow falling to 8,800-8,900 in the near term.
"The market has overshot just a little bit on the upside. The re-evaluation of the strength of the consumer will definitely come into play," he said. "And secondly, it's just about profit-taking. Investors have made a lot of money since the March lows and taking some profits off the table makes a lot of sense right now."
Lip acknowledged that short-selling in the market has dropped in recent weeks.
"Recent short interest actually has been falling. It rose the last two months, but within the last few weeks short interest has actually fallen," he told "Squawk Box Asia."Lip sees foreign and emerging markets outperforming the U.S. as he sees a slowdown in U.S. domestic growth hampering the economic recovery."We do think that foreign market and emerging markets will likely outperform the U.S. domestic market ... there's a lot of repairs that need to be in the U.S. economy which I believe will actually slowdown US domestic growth," he said.
Daily Index Technicals 20-09
Written by FXtechtrade
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 9247.86 and 9212.65(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 9180.00, where correction also can be. Then follows 9155.42. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 9137.26. Continuation will bring 899110.39 and 9090.0080.43.Today's resistance: - 9333.10 and 9373.00 (main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 9390.37, where a correction may happen. Then follows 9433.10, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 9471.20. Continuation would bring 9516.22.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 9247.86 and 9212.65(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 9180.00, where correction also can be. Then follows 9155.42. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 9137.26. Continuation will bring 899110.39 and 9090.0080.43.Today's resistance: - 9333.10 and 9373.00 (main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 9390.37, where a correction may happen. Then follows 9433.10, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 9471.20. Continuation would bring 9516.22.
Goldman Sachs Upgraded Coal Price Forecasts
Coal Price Forecast Upgrade
We have raised our coal price forecasts principally in response to improving supply/demand fundamentals in Asia/Pacific. We now believe that the balance of risk for 2010/11 fixed price contracts is for a price increase rather than a decrease. We prefer metallurgical coal over thermal coal.
Metallurgical Coal
• We have raised our 2010/11 Australia/Japan benchmark forecast for hard coking coal to US$140/t (previously US$120/t) and have maintained prices at this level in 2011/12 (previously US$110/t).
• Strong demand from China and India, together with an anticipated recovery in demand from key importers such as Europe and Japan will put pressure on Australian supply chains, drawing more higher cost north American and possibly Russian coal into the system.
• PCI price forecast raised to $100/t, largely due to Chinese demand.
Thermal Coal
• Fundamentals slightly less robust than for metallurgical but export constraints in Australia (and possibly Indonesia) could result in a much tighter market by late 2009, paving the way for higher contract prices.
• We have raised our benchmark 2010/11 price forecast to $80/t.
Where are the Risks?
• Weaker than expected pick up in steel production outside China (notably Europe and Japan) leading to delayed/muted re-stocking.
• Chinese contractual performance risk: foreign coal could price itself out of the market leading to defaults on booked tonnage.
We have raised our coal price forecasts principally in response to improving supply/demand fundamentals in Asia/Pacific. We now believe that the balance of risk for 2010/11 fixed price contracts is for a price increase rather than a decrease. We prefer metallurgical coal over thermal coal.
Metallurgical Coal
• We have raised our 2010/11 Australia/Japan benchmark forecast for hard coking coal to US$140/t (previously US$120/t) and have maintained prices at this level in 2011/12 (previously US$110/t).
• Strong demand from China and India, together with an anticipated recovery in demand from key importers such as Europe and Japan will put pressure on Australian supply chains, drawing more higher cost north American and possibly Russian coal into the system.
• PCI price forecast raised to $100/t, largely due to Chinese demand.
Thermal Coal
• Fundamentals slightly less robust than for metallurgical but export constraints in Australia (and possibly Indonesia) could result in a much tighter market by late 2009, paving the way for higher contract prices.
• We have raised our benchmark 2010/11 price forecast to $80/t.
Where are the Risks?
• Weaker than expected pick up in steel production outside China (notably Europe and Japan) leading to delayed/muted re-stocking.
• Chinese contractual performance risk: foreign coal could price itself out of the market leading to defaults on booked tonnage.
Stock and Financial Markets Walking a Dangerous Inflation/ Deflation Tightrope
By: Joseph_Russo
Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTiming, Perspective... When it comes to engaging financial markets, timing is everything. When and where does one enter or exit, what are his or her objectives, and what frame of reference does one use to make such decisions. Answers to the above are essential prior to committing speculative funds against any given timeframe or set of objectives one may consider.
The most important aspect to answering these questions is to clearly identify one’s timing objectives, and then adhere to best practice disciplines to carry out those objectives. In doing so, it is essential that one ignore all ancillary noise, which may or may not conflict with the objectives disciplinary protocols in use.
In developing strategies from which to engage, there are many perspectives and tactics one may adopt. Timeframes can swing from secular trends lasting decades to sell-offs and price-spikes lasting only an hour or two. In the middle reside cyclical trends that can last for years followed by intermediate, near-term, and shorter-term trends, which populate the balance of the time horizon landscape.
... the Majors and where key battle lines are drawn
No doubt, the 40% - 50% rise in equities from the March lows have turned the majority of participants bullish over the near-term. What does this bullish price action tell us about the balance of time-horizon perspectives? Well for one, the short-term trends have been bullish since March, and so have the near-term trends. Given the V-spike run-up, the intermediate-term trend looks promising but must still prove itself, while the cyclical and secular trends remain severely clouded.
$USD Dollar Index
Since so many assets are valued in $USD, we view this index as the mother of all majors. Given the $USD has lost approximately 95% of its purchasing power at its lows in 2008, we can calculate that at its peak, this index (if it existed at inception) would have scaled the 1500 level at par value with a single dollar. Today, it remains in serious trouble below the 80-level, with a hyperinflationary downside price target of 41, which is another 50% haircut from current levels. Since inception and as historically proven with all other fiat currencies, the $USD was born at full value into a preordained secular bear market leading to its inevitable collapse and ultimate replacement. This current world reserve currency unit is the benchmark from which most assets are valued, trade deals negotiated and future business plans considered. It has become increasingly obvious that most major market values react (inversely) to changes in the value of this waning reserve currency, meaning that further devalued dollars will raise the underlying value of whatever types of assets that are priced in such units of measure. In kind, a stronger currency unit will reveal the true weakness in such asset values, or at least adjust their true values against their worth in stronger “dollars”. Currency devaluation (inflation) is one of the most egregious and illusionary taxes a government or central bank can impose upon its people.
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
The long-term secular uptrend in the DOW has fractured severely. From this perspective, the cyclical trend remains down, as does the intermediate trend. The near-term and shorter-term trends are up but meaningfully extended. Just above current levels, resides seven years worth of price congestion resistance. The area below the key 7500 support level contains a very thin 3000-pt range lacking any record of congestive support above the 4000 level. Whereas the 80-level marks a tightrope for the $USD, the 7500 level marks a critical battle line for the Dow.
GOLD
From the previous inflationary highs of 875 printed back in the late 1970’s, Gold continues to insist upon establishing a trading floor above those previously recorded highs some 30-years ago. Upon its first endeavor north of 875 and beyond 1000, it fell back hard through a thin zone of no support until it reached the 700-handle. Testing the upper end of this congestive band of support near 700, Gold retraced the 200-pt thin zone and has held steady above its former price ceiling of 875, which is precisely where we place the first battle line for Gold.
Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTiming, Perspective... When it comes to engaging financial markets, timing is everything. When and where does one enter or exit, what are his or her objectives, and what frame of reference does one use to make such decisions. Answers to the above are essential prior to committing speculative funds against any given timeframe or set of objectives one may consider.
The most important aspect to answering these questions is to clearly identify one’s timing objectives, and then adhere to best practice disciplines to carry out those objectives. In doing so, it is essential that one ignore all ancillary noise, which may or may not conflict with the objectives disciplinary protocols in use.
In developing strategies from which to engage, there are many perspectives and tactics one may adopt. Timeframes can swing from secular trends lasting decades to sell-offs and price-spikes lasting only an hour or two. In the middle reside cyclical trends that can last for years followed by intermediate, near-term, and shorter-term trends, which populate the balance of the time horizon landscape.
... the Majors and where key battle lines are drawn
No doubt, the 40% - 50% rise in equities from the March lows have turned the majority of participants bullish over the near-term. What does this bullish price action tell us about the balance of time-horizon perspectives? Well for one, the short-term trends have been bullish since March, and so have the near-term trends. Given the V-spike run-up, the intermediate-term trend looks promising but must still prove itself, while the cyclical and secular trends remain severely clouded.
$USD Dollar Index
Since so many assets are valued in $USD, we view this index as the mother of all majors. Given the $USD has lost approximately 95% of its purchasing power at its lows in 2008, we can calculate that at its peak, this index (if it existed at inception) would have scaled the 1500 level at par value with a single dollar. Today, it remains in serious trouble below the 80-level, with a hyperinflationary downside price target of 41, which is another 50% haircut from current levels. Since inception and as historically proven with all other fiat currencies, the $USD was born at full value into a preordained secular bear market leading to its inevitable collapse and ultimate replacement. This current world reserve currency unit is the benchmark from which most assets are valued, trade deals negotiated and future business plans considered. It has become increasingly obvious that most major market values react (inversely) to changes in the value of this waning reserve currency, meaning that further devalued dollars will raise the underlying value of whatever types of assets that are priced in such units of measure. In kind, a stronger currency unit will reveal the true weakness in such asset values, or at least adjust their true values against their worth in stronger “dollars”. Currency devaluation (inflation) is one of the most egregious and illusionary taxes a government or central bank can impose upon its people.
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
The long-term secular uptrend in the DOW has fractured severely. From this perspective, the cyclical trend remains down, as does the intermediate trend. The near-term and shorter-term trends are up but meaningfully extended. Just above current levels, resides seven years worth of price congestion resistance. The area below the key 7500 support level contains a very thin 3000-pt range lacking any record of congestive support above the 4000 level. Whereas the 80-level marks a tightrope for the $USD, the 7500 level marks a critical battle line for the Dow.
GOLD
From the previous inflationary highs of 875 printed back in the late 1970’s, Gold continues to insist upon establishing a trading floor above those previously recorded highs some 30-years ago. Upon its first endeavor north of 875 and beyond 1000, it fell back hard through a thin zone of no support until it reached the 700-handle. Testing the upper end of this congestive band of support near 700, Gold retraced the 200-pt thin zone and has held steady above its former price ceiling of 875, which is precisely where we place the first battle line for Gold.
Seasonal Demands Analysis for Gold, Crude Oil and Copper
By: John_Winston
Over the past 5 months the markets that crashed have staged a significant comeback. While the stock market usually grabs the headlines, there have been some great commodity runs as well. As the season’s change, the demands for commodities vary according to each respective market. For instance, let’s take a look at copper. Below is the 15 (Red) and 40 (blue) year averages of the Copper seasonal price chart. One of the more prolonged downtrends on the chart shows that from September to the middle of October, copper is usually weak. We can see the demand PHASE of this commodity is the December to April time frame.
Crude Oil
How about Crude oil? Things have been very choppy lately. Are we peaking? Interestingly, if we look at the seasonal chart, we can see that crude oil usually has a very choppy August, with up and down and sideways action. The good news for the bulls is that the Crude oil market still has about another 6-8 weeks left of its seasonal action. (NOTE – Do not follow the yellow months. Those are Futures Contracts. Follow the blue months at bottom of chart.
How to trade crude oil
In the crude oil chart below, we see the same meltdown of 2008 as we did in Copper. But other than that, the chart is following seasonality “this year”. But let’s look at what happens when “seasonality” inverts. You can see we bottomed in February of 2008 in February and we rallied to April. So far so good. But instead of pulling back into July and making a low, look how we exploded up and made a high in July. In fact, crude oil was the “MEDIA BOY” at the very peak. That its final ascent was a seasonal inversion will be something to keep an eye out for when we watch other inversions in the future. But that was it. When everyone got back home from July 4th vacation it was the end for crude as it virtually collapsed.
Gold
Finally tonight we want to take a look at gold. Here’s the seasonal chart below.
Gold spot Trading
We can see that we are at a key time for the gold seasonal. Lows are usually made right at the end of August. Interestingly, we are only about 30 dollars above the July lows, and the choppiness we’ve seen in gold is actually what the seasonal suggests this time of year. What’s important for gold is what lies in front of us. September. You can see that a nice rally usually develops from somewhere in this time frame. The “optimum” time is about to arrive. Like the other commodities gold also went to the barber shop last fall. But unlike all other commodities, gold has returned to its highs……….a real sign of strength so far. I say so far because we must also conclude that gold has not made a new high for 18 plus months. Many are anticipating a tremendous rally should the highs succumb to price.
Over the past 5 months the markets that crashed have staged a significant comeback. While the stock market usually grabs the headlines, there have been some great commodity runs as well. As the season’s change, the demands for commodities vary according to each respective market. For instance, let’s take a look at copper. Below is the 15 (Red) and 40 (blue) year averages of the Copper seasonal price chart. One of the more prolonged downtrends on the chart shows that from September to the middle of October, copper is usually weak. We can see the demand PHASE of this commodity is the December to April time frame.
Crude Oil
How about Crude oil? Things have been very choppy lately. Are we peaking? Interestingly, if we look at the seasonal chart, we can see that crude oil usually has a very choppy August, with up and down and sideways action. The good news for the bulls is that the Crude oil market still has about another 6-8 weeks left of its seasonal action. (NOTE – Do not follow the yellow months. Those are Futures Contracts. Follow the blue months at bottom of chart.
How to trade crude oil
In the crude oil chart below, we see the same meltdown of 2008 as we did in Copper. But other than that, the chart is following seasonality “this year”. But let’s look at what happens when “seasonality” inverts. You can see we bottomed in February of 2008 in February and we rallied to April. So far so good. But instead of pulling back into July and making a low, look how we exploded up and made a high in July. In fact, crude oil was the “MEDIA BOY” at the very peak. That its final ascent was a seasonal inversion will be something to keep an eye out for when we watch other inversions in the future. But that was it. When everyone got back home from July 4th vacation it was the end for crude as it virtually collapsed.
Gold
Finally tonight we want to take a look at gold. Here’s the seasonal chart below.
Gold spot Trading
We can see that we are at a key time for the gold seasonal. Lows are usually made right at the end of August. Interestingly, we are only about 30 dollars above the July lows, and the choppiness we’ve seen in gold is actually what the seasonal suggests this time of year. What’s important for gold is what lies in front of us. September. You can see that a nice rally usually develops from somewhere in this time frame. The “optimum” time is about to arrive. Like the other commodities gold also went to the barber shop last fall. But unlike all other commodities, gold has returned to its highs……….a real sign of strength so far. I say so far because we must also conclude that gold has not made a new high for 18 plus months. Many are anticipating a tremendous rally should the highs succumb to price.
Investing 101: Six Factors That Determine Your Investment Portfolio Value
By Alexander Green on August 20, 2009
Imagine trying to tackle algebra, geometry, or calculus without understanding basic mathematics.Clearly, you wouldn’t get far.Yet it’s not uncommon to run into investors who are knee deep in option trading, currencies, short selling, or sophisticated arbitrage strategies without mastering - or even understanding - basic investment principles.Even seasoned hands can benefit from a refresher course from time to time.So today we’re going to revisit Investing 101 and talk about the six factors that will determine the future value of your investment portfolio, whether it’s worth $10,000 or $10 million.
Six Factors That Determine Your Portfolio’s Future Value
Those six factors are:
* The amount of money you save. To put it bluntly you have to start by maximizing your income, minimizing your outgoing and paying yourself first. Why? Because expenses always rise to meet the income available. As soon as you get a raise or a higher paying job, you’ll find that you need a new car, a bigger house, better furniture and a new set of Callaway irons. But you have to draw the line somewhere. You can’t save a pittance and expect your portfolio to perform miracles each year.
* The length of time your money compounds. The sooner you start investing the better. And the longer you leave it alone the better. If you start too late - or raid your portfolio to redo the kitchen or take the kids to Disney - you’re going to have a lot of catching up to do down the road. The old chestnut is true: Don’t touch your capital. It’s like eating your seed corn.
* Your asset allocation. Studies consistently show that how you divide your portfolio among non-correlated assets - stocks, bonds, real estate investment trusts, precious metals, etc. - determines 90% of your portfolio’s long-term return. (The rest is due to security selection.) If you’re too conservative - or too aggressive to stick with your program - you simply won’t meet your goals.
* Your assets’ annual return. This, of course, is the great unknown. Not even Warren Buffett or Ben Bernanke can say what their portfolio will return each year. But the better your security selection and asset allocation decisions, the higher your annual compounded returns.
* What you pay in expenses. Don’t be oblivious to what all those financial intermediaries are charging you. You can sacrifice far too much in commissions, bid/ask spreads, wrap fees, management expenses and other costs. All things being equal, the lower your expenses the higher your net returns.
* How much you pay in taxes. Too many investors are oblivious to the tax ramifications of their investment moves. When possible, put your high-yielding investments in your tax-deferred accounts and your tax-efficient funds and individual stocks in your non-retirement accounts. (I call this your asset location strategy.) Hold positions 12 months or more to qualify for the lower long-term capital gains tax rate. Offset your capital gains with capital losses if possible.
Only one of these six factors is beyond your control: your assets’ annual compounded return. That means it only makes sense to focus on the other five.
Investing 101: Don’t Worry About The Markets…
So instead of worrying about what the market will do between now and year end - something you can’t possibly know and has nothing to do with what your portfolio will be worth five or 10 years from now - focus on:
* Saving more,
* Leaving it alone longer,
* Getting your asset allocation right,
* Lowering your expenses
* And keeping a close eye on taxes.
Get these big questions right and you’ll find the details will take care of themselves.Better still, in your golden years, your portfolio will take care of you.
Imagine trying to tackle algebra, geometry, or calculus without understanding basic mathematics.Clearly, you wouldn’t get far.Yet it’s not uncommon to run into investors who are knee deep in option trading, currencies, short selling, or sophisticated arbitrage strategies without mastering - or even understanding - basic investment principles.Even seasoned hands can benefit from a refresher course from time to time.So today we’re going to revisit Investing 101 and talk about the six factors that will determine the future value of your investment portfolio, whether it’s worth $10,000 or $10 million.
Six Factors That Determine Your Portfolio’s Future Value
Those six factors are:
* The amount of money you save. To put it bluntly you have to start by maximizing your income, minimizing your outgoing and paying yourself first. Why? Because expenses always rise to meet the income available. As soon as you get a raise or a higher paying job, you’ll find that you need a new car, a bigger house, better furniture and a new set of Callaway irons. But you have to draw the line somewhere. You can’t save a pittance and expect your portfolio to perform miracles each year.
* The length of time your money compounds. The sooner you start investing the better. And the longer you leave it alone the better. If you start too late - or raid your portfolio to redo the kitchen or take the kids to Disney - you’re going to have a lot of catching up to do down the road. The old chestnut is true: Don’t touch your capital. It’s like eating your seed corn.
* Your asset allocation. Studies consistently show that how you divide your portfolio among non-correlated assets - stocks, bonds, real estate investment trusts, precious metals, etc. - determines 90% of your portfolio’s long-term return. (The rest is due to security selection.) If you’re too conservative - or too aggressive to stick with your program - you simply won’t meet your goals.
* Your assets’ annual return. This, of course, is the great unknown. Not even Warren Buffett or Ben Bernanke can say what their portfolio will return each year. But the better your security selection and asset allocation decisions, the higher your annual compounded returns.
* What you pay in expenses. Don’t be oblivious to what all those financial intermediaries are charging you. You can sacrifice far too much in commissions, bid/ask spreads, wrap fees, management expenses and other costs. All things being equal, the lower your expenses the higher your net returns.
* How much you pay in taxes. Too many investors are oblivious to the tax ramifications of their investment moves. When possible, put your high-yielding investments in your tax-deferred accounts and your tax-efficient funds and individual stocks in your non-retirement accounts. (I call this your asset location strategy.) Hold positions 12 months or more to qualify for the lower long-term capital gains tax rate. Offset your capital gains with capital losses if possible.
Only one of these six factors is beyond your control: your assets’ annual compounded return. That means it only makes sense to focus on the other five.
Investing 101: Don’t Worry About The Markets…
So instead of worrying about what the market will do between now and year end - something you can’t possibly know and has nothing to do with what your portfolio will be worth five or 10 years from now - focus on:
* Saving more,
* Leaving it alone longer,
* Getting your asset allocation right,
* Lowering your expenses
* And keeping a close eye on taxes.
Get these big questions right and you’ll find the details will take care of themselves.Better still, in your golden years, your portfolio will take care of you.
China Stocks Set to Rebound From Slump, Merrill Says
(Bloomberg) -- China’s stocks are set to rebound from this month’s plunge on prospects earnings will beat estimates and policy makers will maintain bank lending, Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch unit said. The Shanghai Composite Index climbed 2.7 percent to 2,860.97 at 10:12 a.m. local time. The gauge yesterday fell 19.8 percent below the high on Aug. 4, near the 20 percent bear- market threshold, amid disappointing earnings and concern the government will seek to damp property speculation.“I don’t think this is a turning point,” David Cui, China strategist at Merrill Lynch, said in a phone interview yesterday. “My sense is that earnings will surprise on the upside and we’ll see a round of earnings upgrades. The government’s monetary policy also hasn’t changed.”
Cui’s view is shared by U.S. fund managers Uri Landesman of ING Investment Management Inc. and Sentinel Asset Management’s Kate Schapiro, who say the stock selloff won’t prompt them to cut their investments in the world’s third-largest economy. “If you were to put a gun to my head, I would say that China is a buy, not a sell,” said Landesman, who manages $2.5 billion at ING Investment in New York. “China has always been a volatile place and that hasn’t changed in the last few weeks.” Landesman said he’s considering adding to his China holdings. The stocks will rebound because they were “oversold” and valuations are reasonable, leaving a “safety margin,” analysts led by Yu Jun at Citic Securities Co., the country’s biggest listed brokerage, wrote in a report today. Equities on the CSI 300 Index have dropped to 21 times estimated earnings for 2009 from 27 times on Aug. 3.
Stimulus Rally
China’s benchmark stock index posted the biggest gains among the world’s markets from Jan. 1 to Aug. 4, more than doubling from the low in November. Shares had surged as the government unveiled a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package and new loans by banks surged to a record in the first half. The gauge remains 53 percent below the all-time high on Oct. 16, 2007.The index has slumped this month, paring the year-to-date advance to 57 percent, after new lending in July tumbled to less than a quarter of June’s level, while losses at Yunnan Copper Industry Co. and Maanshan Iron & Steel Co. revived concern that earnings will deteriorate.The equities rally also faltered as the securities regulator allowed initial public offerings after a nine-month moratorium.The stocks probably face a further “correction” in the next 30 days due to regulatory risks, UBS AG strategist John Tang said in a report today, advising investors to be “less aggressive for now, more aggressive” later.
State Construction
Jonathan Garner, chief Asian and emerging market strategist at Morgan Stanley in London, told Bloomberg Television that the main catalyst for the recent plunge was the July IPO of China State Construction Engineering Corp.“It drained liquidity from secondary markets,” he said.China Everbright Securities Co. yesterday underscored the downturn, slumping by the 10 percent daily limit, a day after it had the smallest debut of any new stock in Shanghai this year. Shanghai-based Everbright rose 30 percent on Aug. 18, against an average 109 percent for the seven other companies to list shares in China since the moratorium ended last month.
“The next few days are key,” said Cui at Merrill Lynch, who favors shares of property developers, coal and non-ferrous metals producers. “We may see another leg down if the market doesn’t hold around the 2,800 level.”China’s biggest state-owned banks such as Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. are scheduled to report their half-yearly results within this fortnight.
Policy Stance
Shanghai’s index has extended its decline since Prime Minister Wen Jiabao said on Aug. 9 that the government will maintain its current macroeconomic policy stance aimed at bolstering domestic spending as the nation continues to experience fallout from the global recession.The index is trading at 30.6 times reported earnings, against 17.8 times for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, and remains 53 percent higher than at the start of this year.“I think it’s healthy for the market to back off a bit,” said Schapiro, fund manager at San Francisco-based Sentinel, with $17 billion in assets. “Over the next 12 months or so I think we’re in a period of time where China’s growth is still going to be the fastest of the major countries of the world. Even without a pickup in their export sector, they can probably grow at around 8 or 9 percent.”
Technical Signals
The Shanghai Composite is poised to rally and global equities may follow suit, according to Richard Ross, global technical strategist at New York-based Auerbach Grayson & Co. Charts shows four levels of “support” signaling that the index may rebound: the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement, the 200-day exponential moving average, the trend line since mid-January and the 14-day relative strength index.
“A rebound is in the cards,” said Ross.
Stocks plunged the most in eight months on July 29 on speculation the government will curb inflows into the market. Beijing-based Caijing magazine reported that day speculation the central bank was poised to order lenders to set aside larger reserves. Market News International said Chinese equities fell that day on speculation regulators will increase a tax on stock trading.
“The Chinese market is very trend-oriented because there are many individual investors,” said Philippe Zhang, chief investment officer at AXA SPDB Investment Managers in Shanghai, which oversees about $220 million. “So it can rally very quickly and go down strongly as well.”
New Accounts
Investors opened 484,185 accounts to trade stocks last week, the slowest pace since the five days ended July 10, according to data from the nation’s clearing house. Account openings peaked this year at 700,617 in the last week of July, days before the index reached this year’s high, the data shows.“It’s scary,” retiree Xu Xuehong, 64, who had about 300,000 yuan ($43,900) invested in shares, said in an interview at a branch of Shenyin & Wanguo Securities Co. in Shanghai. “The decline is too rapid; I am not going to make new investments.”China’s CSI 300 index, measuring exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen, has fallen more than 20 percent five times since 2005, with the index plunging by 33 percent and lasting almost three months on average during the bear markets, according to Birinyi Associates Inc. The index fell 5 percent to 3,014.47 yesterday, down 20 percent since Aug. 4.
“The speed of this drop stands out,” said Kevin Pleines, analyst for the Westport Connecticut-based research and money management firm. “If this decline follows the average, it will take the CSI down another 486 points to 2,527.”
Cui’s view is shared by U.S. fund managers Uri Landesman of ING Investment Management Inc. and Sentinel Asset Management’s Kate Schapiro, who say the stock selloff won’t prompt them to cut their investments in the world’s third-largest economy. “If you were to put a gun to my head, I would say that China is a buy, not a sell,” said Landesman, who manages $2.5 billion at ING Investment in New York. “China has always been a volatile place and that hasn’t changed in the last few weeks.” Landesman said he’s considering adding to his China holdings. The stocks will rebound because they were “oversold” and valuations are reasonable, leaving a “safety margin,” analysts led by Yu Jun at Citic Securities Co., the country’s biggest listed brokerage, wrote in a report today. Equities on the CSI 300 Index have dropped to 21 times estimated earnings for 2009 from 27 times on Aug. 3.
Stimulus Rally
China’s benchmark stock index posted the biggest gains among the world’s markets from Jan. 1 to Aug. 4, more than doubling from the low in November. Shares had surged as the government unveiled a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package and new loans by banks surged to a record in the first half. The gauge remains 53 percent below the all-time high on Oct. 16, 2007.The index has slumped this month, paring the year-to-date advance to 57 percent, after new lending in July tumbled to less than a quarter of June’s level, while losses at Yunnan Copper Industry Co. and Maanshan Iron & Steel Co. revived concern that earnings will deteriorate.The equities rally also faltered as the securities regulator allowed initial public offerings after a nine-month moratorium.The stocks probably face a further “correction” in the next 30 days due to regulatory risks, UBS AG strategist John Tang said in a report today, advising investors to be “less aggressive for now, more aggressive” later.
State Construction
Jonathan Garner, chief Asian and emerging market strategist at Morgan Stanley in London, told Bloomberg Television that the main catalyst for the recent plunge was the July IPO of China State Construction Engineering Corp.“It drained liquidity from secondary markets,” he said.China Everbright Securities Co. yesterday underscored the downturn, slumping by the 10 percent daily limit, a day after it had the smallest debut of any new stock in Shanghai this year. Shanghai-based Everbright rose 30 percent on Aug. 18, against an average 109 percent for the seven other companies to list shares in China since the moratorium ended last month.
“The next few days are key,” said Cui at Merrill Lynch, who favors shares of property developers, coal and non-ferrous metals producers. “We may see another leg down if the market doesn’t hold around the 2,800 level.”China’s biggest state-owned banks such as Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. are scheduled to report their half-yearly results within this fortnight.
Policy Stance
Shanghai’s index has extended its decline since Prime Minister Wen Jiabao said on Aug. 9 that the government will maintain its current macroeconomic policy stance aimed at bolstering domestic spending as the nation continues to experience fallout from the global recession.The index is trading at 30.6 times reported earnings, against 17.8 times for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, and remains 53 percent higher than at the start of this year.“I think it’s healthy for the market to back off a bit,” said Schapiro, fund manager at San Francisco-based Sentinel, with $17 billion in assets. “Over the next 12 months or so I think we’re in a period of time where China’s growth is still going to be the fastest of the major countries of the world. Even without a pickup in their export sector, they can probably grow at around 8 or 9 percent.”
Technical Signals
The Shanghai Composite is poised to rally and global equities may follow suit, according to Richard Ross, global technical strategist at New York-based Auerbach Grayson & Co. Charts shows four levels of “support” signaling that the index may rebound: the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement, the 200-day exponential moving average, the trend line since mid-January and the 14-day relative strength index.
“A rebound is in the cards,” said Ross.
Stocks plunged the most in eight months on July 29 on speculation the government will curb inflows into the market. Beijing-based Caijing magazine reported that day speculation the central bank was poised to order lenders to set aside larger reserves. Market News International said Chinese equities fell that day on speculation regulators will increase a tax on stock trading.
“The Chinese market is very trend-oriented because there are many individual investors,” said Philippe Zhang, chief investment officer at AXA SPDB Investment Managers in Shanghai, which oversees about $220 million. “So it can rally very quickly and go down strongly as well.”
New Accounts
Investors opened 484,185 accounts to trade stocks last week, the slowest pace since the five days ended July 10, according to data from the nation’s clearing house. Account openings peaked this year at 700,617 in the last week of July, days before the index reached this year’s high, the data shows.“It’s scary,” retiree Xu Xuehong, 64, who had about 300,000 yuan ($43,900) invested in shares, said in an interview at a branch of Shenyin & Wanguo Securities Co. in Shanghai. “The decline is too rapid; I am not going to make new investments.”China’s CSI 300 index, measuring exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen, has fallen more than 20 percent five times since 2005, with the index plunging by 33 percent and lasting almost three months on average during the bear markets, according to Birinyi Associates Inc. The index fell 5 percent to 3,014.47 yesterday, down 20 percent since Aug. 4.
“The speed of this drop stands out,” said Kevin Pleines, analyst for the Westport Connecticut-based research and money management firm. “If this decline follows the average, it will take the CSI down another 486 points to 2,527.”
Laporan Fundamental & Rumor Emiten 20-08-2009
Goldman Sachs meningkatkan target harga batubara karena membaiknya supply/demand fundamental di Asia/Pacific. • GS Menaikkan prediksi untuk 2010/11 hard coking coal menjadi US$140/t (sebelumnya US$120/t) dan mempetahankan harga di level ini di tahun 2011/12 (sebelumnya US$110/t).
Barclays menaikkan target harga timah rata-rata menjadi US$ 13.844 /ton dari US$ 12.844/ton di 2009, target 2010 juga dinaikkan menjadi US$ 15.125/ton menjadi US$ 17.250/ton.
Research Kim Eng : Take Profit GGRM target Rp 16,500.
Cermati Saham Timah
HARGA saham PT Timah Tbk (TINS) berpeluang menguat kembali ke level Rp 2.500 dalam jangka pendek. Sumber Investor Daily mengungkapkan, sejumlah konsorsium broker akan memburu TINS dalam waktu dekat, seiring ekspansi usaha perseroan dan perolehan kontrak anak usahanya dari perusahaan BUMN lain. Pada perdagangan kemarin, TINS ditutup terkoreksi Rp 200 (8,89%) ke posisi Rp 2.050.
Suparma Jadi Target Akuisisi
SALAH satu perusahaan kertas terbesar di Tanah Air dikabarkan berniat mengakuisisi saham PT Suparma Tbk (SPMA). Terkait itu, kata sumber Investor Daily, harga SPMA berpotensi menuju level Rp 400 dalam jangka pendek maupun menengah. Selain itu, kata dia, adanya kabar bahwa emiten akan ekspansi dan memproduksi kertas tissue sebanyak 15 ton per tahun juga bakal berdampak positif. Pada perdagangan kemarin, SPMA ditutup menguat Rp 5 (2,33%) ke level Rp 220.
Telkom Akuisisi Indonesiantower
PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (Telkom) lewat anak usahanya PT Dayamitra Telekomunikasi (Mitratel) telah melakukan conditional agreement untuk mengakuisisi 80% saham PT Solusindo Kreasi Pratama (Indonesiantower).
IHSG Dibuka Naik 31,94 Poin
Perdagangan IHSG di lantai bursa pada Kamis (20/8) ini dibuka naik 31,94 poin (1,4%) ke level 2.309,69 yang dipengaruhi penguatan bursa regional dan Wall Street serta harga minyak dunia di atas US$ 70 per barel.
Kurs rupiah terhadap dolar AS di pasar spot antarbank Jakarta, Kamis pagi melemah 30 poin menjauhi angka Rp10.000 per dolar Rp10.100-10.125 per dolar dibanding penutupan hari sebelumnya Rp10.080-10.100, karena pelaku pasar masih aktif memburu dolar untuk membeli obligasi AS yang diluncurkan di pasar global.
Semen Gresik Bangun Pabrik Tuban IV Rp3,5 T
Semen Gresik Tbk (SMGR) mulai membangun pabrik baru, yakni Tuban IV yang rencananya akan beroperasi penuh pada 2012 dengan investasi yang ditanamkan mencapai Rp3,5 triliun.
BBRI, BMRI & TLKM Bisa Jadi Pilihan
Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) pada perdagangan Kamis (20/8) diperkirakan masih tertekan. Untuk trading, saham BUMI dan BRPT menjadi pilihannya. Sedangkan jangka menengah, disarankan saham BMRI, BBRI dan TLKM.
Pergerakan IHSG pada perdagangan Kamis (20/8) diperkirakan akan melemah karena sentimen negatif bursa China dengan kisaran di level 2.240-2.290 dengan saham pilihan antara lain UNVR, KLBF dan GGRM.
BUMI ‘Trading Sell’ Saja
Saham PT Bumi Resources (BUMI), Kamis (20/8) diprediksikan melemah seiring negatifnya sentimen market regional. Ketatnya likuiditas di China akan mengakibatkan perlambatan ekonomi sehingga menjadi trigger negatif indeks. Trading sell BUMI.
WIKA Akan Masuk Konsorsium Jembatan Selat Sunda
Badan usaha milik negara (BUMN) sektor karya dan infrastruktur akan dilibatkan dalam pembangunan jembatan Selat Sunda (JSS). PT Wijaya Karya Tbk (WIKA) akan menjadi salah satu perusahaan BUMN yang dilibatkan.
Saatnya Koleksi Euro dan Poundsterling
Bila berminat mengoleksi euro, sebaiknya investor membeli euro ketika berada di kisaran US$ 1,43-US$ 1,44 per euro.
Investor Warren Buffett yang khawatir terhadap pemerintah dan bank sentral
global menarik paket stimulus
PIMCO mengatakan dolar akan melemah karena AS memompa dana yang besar kepada ekonomi.
Credit Suisse menyarankan buy on weakness saham emerging market
BNP Paribas melihat potensi kenaikan saham Asia ex Jepang sebesar 30% dalam periode 12 bulan.
Survei Merrill Lynch yang menunjukkan investor mengakumulasi saham karena meningkatnya risk appetite dan perkiraan membaiknya ekonomi global.
El Nino Tebar Untung bagi BISI
BISI bisa mempromosikan dan menggenjot penjualan benih jagung unggul yang lebih cocok sebagai tanaman musim kering.
BMRI : Mandiri siap danai proyek Senoro US$ 1 M
Bank Mandiri menyanggupi untuk berpartisipasi dalam pembiayaan proyek gas alam cair Donggi senilai US$ 1 miliar. Gas Dongi-Senoro rencananya diperuntukkan bagi kepentingan domestik.
KLBF Siap Buy Back Tahap D
Produsen obat ini masih memiliki sisa anggaran yang cukup untuk buy back tahap D alias tahap keempat.
Saatnya Koleksi Emas Batangan
Penguatan mata uang dolar Amerika Serikat (AS) menyebabkan harga emas batangan luruh.
Modernland Ekspansi Rp 250 M
PT Modernland Realty Tbk (MDLN) akan mengembangkan usahanya dengan membangun dua proyek perumahan pada semester II-2009. Dana yang dibutuhkan untuk ekspansinya tersebut mencapai Rp 250 miliar.
10 BUMN Bakal Digenjot Jadi Sumber Setoran Dividen Interim
Menteri Negara BUMN Sofyan Djalil mengatakan, sedang menilai BUMN mana saja yang akan menyetorkan dividen interim BUMN senilai Rp 2,5 triliun.
TKIM Yakin Kinerja Kuartal III Membaik
TKIM Berharap kenaikan harga kertas dan peningkatan permintaan produk dari negara tujuan ekspor akan mendongkrak naik laba bersihnya.
ISAT Kantongi Fasilitas Kredit Ekspor dari Swedia
Total fasilitas kredit dari Export Kredit Namnden ini mencapai US$ 315 juta atau sekitar Rp 3,15 triliun
Sumber: Bloomberg, Reuters, Inlah.com, Kontan, Investor Daily, Detik.com,
Barclays menaikkan target harga timah rata-rata menjadi US$ 13.844 /ton dari US$ 12.844/ton di 2009, target 2010 juga dinaikkan menjadi US$ 15.125/ton menjadi US$ 17.250/ton.
Research Kim Eng : Take Profit GGRM target Rp 16,500.
Cermati Saham Timah
HARGA saham PT Timah Tbk (TINS) berpeluang menguat kembali ke level Rp 2.500 dalam jangka pendek. Sumber Investor Daily mengungkapkan, sejumlah konsorsium broker akan memburu TINS dalam waktu dekat, seiring ekspansi usaha perseroan dan perolehan kontrak anak usahanya dari perusahaan BUMN lain. Pada perdagangan kemarin, TINS ditutup terkoreksi Rp 200 (8,89%) ke posisi Rp 2.050.
Suparma Jadi Target Akuisisi
SALAH satu perusahaan kertas terbesar di Tanah Air dikabarkan berniat mengakuisisi saham PT Suparma Tbk (SPMA). Terkait itu, kata sumber Investor Daily, harga SPMA berpotensi menuju level Rp 400 dalam jangka pendek maupun menengah. Selain itu, kata dia, adanya kabar bahwa emiten akan ekspansi dan memproduksi kertas tissue sebanyak 15 ton per tahun juga bakal berdampak positif. Pada perdagangan kemarin, SPMA ditutup menguat Rp 5 (2,33%) ke level Rp 220.
Telkom Akuisisi Indonesiantower
PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (Telkom) lewat anak usahanya PT Dayamitra Telekomunikasi (Mitratel) telah melakukan conditional agreement untuk mengakuisisi 80% saham PT Solusindo Kreasi Pratama (Indonesiantower).
IHSG Dibuka Naik 31,94 Poin
Perdagangan IHSG di lantai bursa pada Kamis (20/8) ini dibuka naik 31,94 poin (1,4%) ke level 2.309,69 yang dipengaruhi penguatan bursa regional dan Wall Street serta harga minyak dunia di atas US$ 70 per barel.
Kurs rupiah terhadap dolar AS di pasar spot antarbank Jakarta, Kamis pagi melemah 30 poin menjauhi angka Rp10.000 per dolar Rp10.100-10.125 per dolar dibanding penutupan hari sebelumnya Rp10.080-10.100, karena pelaku pasar masih aktif memburu dolar untuk membeli obligasi AS yang diluncurkan di pasar global.
Semen Gresik Bangun Pabrik Tuban IV Rp3,5 T
Semen Gresik Tbk (SMGR) mulai membangun pabrik baru, yakni Tuban IV yang rencananya akan beroperasi penuh pada 2012 dengan investasi yang ditanamkan mencapai Rp3,5 triliun.
BBRI, BMRI & TLKM Bisa Jadi Pilihan
Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) pada perdagangan Kamis (20/8) diperkirakan masih tertekan. Untuk trading, saham BUMI dan BRPT menjadi pilihannya. Sedangkan jangka menengah, disarankan saham BMRI, BBRI dan TLKM.
Pergerakan IHSG pada perdagangan Kamis (20/8) diperkirakan akan melemah karena sentimen negatif bursa China dengan kisaran di level 2.240-2.290 dengan saham pilihan antara lain UNVR, KLBF dan GGRM.
BUMI ‘Trading Sell’ Saja
Saham PT Bumi Resources (BUMI), Kamis (20/8) diprediksikan melemah seiring negatifnya sentimen market regional. Ketatnya likuiditas di China akan mengakibatkan perlambatan ekonomi sehingga menjadi trigger negatif indeks. Trading sell BUMI.
WIKA Akan Masuk Konsorsium Jembatan Selat Sunda
Badan usaha milik negara (BUMN) sektor karya dan infrastruktur akan dilibatkan dalam pembangunan jembatan Selat Sunda (JSS). PT Wijaya Karya Tbk (WIKA) akan menjadi salah satu perusahaan BUMN yang dilibatkan.
Saatnya Koleksi Euro dan Poundsterling
Bila berminat mengoleksi euro, sebaiknya investor membeli euro ketika berada di kisaran US$ 1,43-US$ 1,44 per euro.
Investor Warren Buffett yang khawatir terhadap pemerintah dan bank sentral
global menarik paket stimulus
PIMCO mengatakan dolar akan melemah karena AS memompa dana yang besar kepada ekonomi.
Credit Suisse menyarankan buy on weakness saham emerging market
BNP Paribas melihat potensi kenaikan saham Asia ex Jepang sebesar 30% dalam periode 12 bulan.
Survei Merrill Lynch yang menunjukkan investor mengakumulasi saham karena meningkatnya risk appetite dan perkiraan membaiknya ekonomi global.
El Nino Tebar Untung bagi BISI
BISI bisa mempromosikan dan menggenjot penjualan benih jagung unggul yang lebih cocok sebagai tanaman musim kering.
BMRI : Mandiri siap danai proyek Senoro US$ 1 M
Bank Mandiri menyanggupi untuk berpartisipasi dalam pembiayaan proyek gas alam cair Donggi senilai US$ 1 miliar. Gas Dongi-Senoro rencananya diperuntukkan bagi kepentingan domestik.
KLBF Siap Buy Back Tahap D
Produsen obat ini masih memiliki sisa anggaran yang cukup untuk buy back tahap D alias tahap keempat.
Saatnya Koleksi Emas Batangan
Penguatan mata uang dolar Amerika Serikat (AS) menyebabkan harga emas batangan luruh.
Modernland Ekspansi Rp 250 M
PT Modernland Realty Tbk (MDLN) akan mengembangkan usahanya dengan membangun dua proyek perumahan pada semester II-2009. Dana yang dibutuhkan untuk ekspansinya tersebut mencapai Rp 250 miliar.
10 BUMN Bakal Digenjot Jadi Sumber Setoran Dividen Interim
Menteri Negara BUMN Sofyan Djalil mengatakan, sedang menilai BUMN mana saja yang akan menyetorkan dividen interim BUMN senilai Rp 2,5 triliun.
TKIM Yakin Kinerja Kuartal III Membaik
TKIM Berharap kenaikan harga kertas dan peningkatan permintaan produk dari negara tujuan ekspor akan mendongkrak naik laba bersihnya.
ISAT Kantongi Fasilitas Kredit Ekspor dari Swedia
Total fasilitas kredit dari Export Kredit Namnden ini mencapai US$ 315 juta atau sekitar Rp 3,15 triliun
Sumber: Bloomberg, Reuters, Inlah.com, Kontan, Investor Daily, Detik.com,
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Investors Pile Into Stocks as Risk Appetite Jumps, Merrill Says
(Bloomberg) -- Money managers jumped back into equities this month and reduced their holdings of cash as risk appetite returned to levels not seen since the last bull market, a Merrill Lynch & Co. survey showed. Respondents, who together manage $554 billion, increased their holdings in global equities as optimism on economic growth and corporate earnings rose to the highest level in more than five years.The MSCI World Index, a gauge of 23 developed nations, has rebounded 51 percent since March 9 as companies from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to Intel Corp. reported better-than-expected earnings. The Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development said today that the economies of its 30 members collectively stopped shrinking in the second quarter as Japan joined France and Germany in exiting recession.
“People have had to admit that the global economy is improving,” said Patrik Schowitz, a European equity strategist at Bank of America Securities-Merrill Lynch. “A lot of investors missed out on the March rally, which had become increasingly painful, so they have had to throw in the towel,” he said at a press briefing today in London.A net 34 percent of the 204 fund managers who participated in the survey were “overweight” equities this month as cash holdings diminished. That’s up from 7 percent in July and is at the highest level since October, 2007, the month in which the MSCI World peaked at the end of the last bull market.
Risk Appetite Jumps
The average cash position among respondents dropped to 3.5 percent, the lowest proportion since July 2007, compared with 4.7 percent last month. The report’s risk and liquidity indicator, a measure of risk appetite among investors, jumped to 41 percent, a two-year high.“Strong optimism in August represents a big turnaround from the apocalyptic bearishness of March,” said Michael Hartnett, New York-based co-head of international investment strategy at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. Though “a nagging lack of conviction about the durability of the recovery remains.”
A net 75 percent of respondents believe the world economy will strengthen in the next 12 months, the highest reading since November 2003. Even so, four out of five investors forecast “below-trend growth.”Optimism on corporate earnings continued to improve, with 70 percent of money managers predicting corporate earnings will rise in the coming year, the highest proportion since January 2004. That compares to 51 percent who held that opinion in July.
The survey was conducted from Aug. 7 to Aug. 12. As of January, Merrill Lynch changed the format of its survey and no longer publishes full historical data.
“People have had to admit that the global economy is improving,” said Patrik Schowitz, a European equity strategist at Bank of America Securities-Merrill Lynch. “A lot of investors missed out on the March rally, which had become increasingly painful, so they have had to throw in the towel,” he said at a press briefing today in London.A net 34 percent of the 204 fund managers who participated in the survey were “overweight” equities this month as cash holdings diminished. That’s up from 7 percent in July and is at the highest level since October, 2007, the month in which the MSCI World peaked at the end of the last bull market.
Risk Appetite Jumps
The average cash position among respondents dropped to 3.5 percent, the lowest proportion since July 2007, compared with 4.7 percent last month. The report’s risk and liquidity indicator, a measure of risk appetite among investors, jumped to 41 percent, a two-year high.“Strong optimism in August represents a big turnaround from the apocalyptic bearishness of March,” said Michael Hartnett, New York-based co-head of international investment strategy at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. Though “a nagging lack of conviction about the durability of the recovery remains.”
A net 75 percent of respondents believe the world economy will strengthen in the next 12 months, the highest reading since November 2003. Even so, four out of five investors forecast “below-trend growth.”Optimism on corporate earnings continued to improve, with 70 percent of money managers predicting corporate earnings will rise in the coming year, the highest proportion since January 2004. That compares to 51 percent who held that opinion in July.
The survey was conducted from Aug. 7 to Aug. 12. As of January, Merrill Lynch changed the format of its survey and no longer publishes full historical data.
Buy Emerging-Market Stocks on Dip, Credit Suisse Says
(Bloomberg) -- Investors should buy emerging-market stocks amid declines this month because valuations aren’t expensive even after their gains this year, according to Credit Suisse Group AG. Shares in developing nations are trading at about 12.7 times reported earnings, just 5 percent higher than the levels seen at the start of previous rallies, Credit Suisse analysts Sakthi Siva and Kin Nang Chik said in a report. Global emerging market stocks may offer an “upside potential” of 25 percent in the next 12 months, they added.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has slipped 4.2 percent from this year’s high set on Aug. 3, trimming gains so far in 2009 to 46 percent. Indexes in developing nations account for all 10 of the world’s best performers this year, led by Peru, Indonesia and Sri Lanka, Bloomberg data show.“The starting point of this rally was more depressed global emerging market valuations,” the analysts wrote. “With August seasonally the worst month for global emerging markets, we suggest buying on the dips in August.”Emerging-market shares are trading at about 1.9 times book value, “marginally below” their historical averages, the Credit Suisse analysts said. Dividend yield of 2.7 percent is higher than their long-term averages, they added.
Economic Growth
Investors should buy emerging market stocks and sell equities in developed nations short because emerging economies will have faster economic growth and their shares are cheaper, Societe Generale SA said this week.The MSCI Emerging Markets Index trades at 13.86 times the bank’s 12-month earnings forecast, below the 15.89 multiple for MSCI’s EAFE Index of developed stocks, wrote Rebecca Cheong, senior equity derivatives strategist for Societe Generale in New York. Emerging economies may expand by 4.8 percent next year, compared with 3 percent for developed nations and 2.2 percent for the U.S., economists at the French bank estimate.
“Even after production improves from historically low levels, healthy consumer demand will still be needed for a real recovery, which has not yet” occurred in developed markets, Cheong wrote. “With little hope of immediate strong export pick- up, countries will need to rely on internal growth, which is more favorable for emerging-market countries based on recent retail numbers.”
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has slipped 4.2 percent from this year’s high set on Aug. 3, trimming gains so far in 2009 to 46 percent. Indexes in developing nations account for all 10 of the world’s best performers this year, led by Peru, Indonesia and Sri Lanka, Bloomberg data show.“The starting point of this rally was more depressed global emerging market valuations,” the analysts wrote. “With August seasonally the worst month for global emerging markets, we suggest buying on the dips in August.”Emerging-market shares are trading at about 1.9 times book value, “marginally below” their historical averages, the Credit Suisse analysts said. Dividend yield of 2.7 percent is higher than their long-term averages, they added.
Economic Growth
Investors should buy emerging market stocks and sell equities in developed nations short because emerging economies will have faster economic growth and their shares are cheaper, Societe Generale SA said this week.The MSCI Emerging Markets Index trades at 13.86 times the bank’s 12-month earnings forecast, below the 15.89 multiple for MSCI’s EAFE Index of developed stocks, wrote Rebecca Cheong, senior equity derivatives strategist for Societe Generale in New York. Emerging economies may expand by 4.8 percent next year, compared with 3 percent for developed nations and 2.2 percent for the U.S., economists at the French bank estimate.
“Even after production improves from historically low levels, healthy consumer demand will still be needed for a real recovery, which has not yet” occurred in developed markets, Cheong wrote. “With little hope of immediate strong export pick- up, countries will need to rely on internal growth, which is more favorable for emerging-market countries based on recent retail numbers.”
Asia-ex Japan Stocks May Surge 31%, BNP Paribas Says
(Bloomberg) -- The MSCI Asia excluding Japan Index may rise 31 percent over 12 months, led by Taiwan, on declining risks and cost of equity, a buildup in liquidity and a return to “peak profitability” in some markets, BNP Paribas said. The regional index may rise to 550 next August, BNP strategists Clive McDonnell and Anando Maitra wrote in a report released today. Taiwan’s Taiex index may rise to 9,700, posting the highest returns among the region’s benchmark gauges, the analysts added.“Taiwan stands out as our top pick over the coming 12 months based on the potential upside for the market as well as the exposure it offers to the information technology sector,” the strategists wrote.
The MSCI Asia excluding Japan Index gained 0.3 percent to 418.54 yesterday, having retreated 4.9 percent from its year’s high on Aug. 3. The measure remains 45 percent higher this year, with Asian stock markets accounting for six of the world’s 10 best performers.A gain to 550 would boost the MSCI Asia index’s price-to- book value ratio to 2.1 times from the current 1.7 multiple, the BNP strategists said. The measure rose 0.5 percent to 420.70 as of 12:31 p.m. in Singapore.Though above the long-term average, we believe this multiple is sustainable given the faster-than-expected earnings recovery, the buildup in liquidity and forecast sustained increase in foreign inflows to Asian markets,” the report said.
Taiwan’s Prospects
The brokerage’s forecast for Taiwan’s Taiex also represents a 43 percent gain from yesterday’s close. The benchmark index has already climbed 48 percent this year, in part because of speculation that easing ties with China will boost trade and investment with the larger mainland economy.In Taiwan, investors should buy shares of Mediatek Inc., Advanced Semiconductor Engineering Inc., Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Wistron Corp. and Taiwan Cement Corp., the strategists said.Taiwan is among markets favored by JPMorgan Chase & Co. because of the prospects of a global economic recovery, Adrian Mowat, the brokerage’s chief Asian and emerging-market strategist said in a Bloomberg Television interview today.
“I’d use this weakness in markets to be buying Korea, Taiwan, India and Indonesia,” Mowat said. “Our expectation is that the global economy is recovering. We think we’re going to make more money by being long tech companies in Korea and Taiwan.”
The MSCI Asia excluding Japan Index gained 0.3 percent to 418.54 yesterday, having retreated 4.9 percent from its year’s high on Aug. 3. The measure remains 45 percent higher this year, with Asian stock markets accounting for six of the world’s 10 best performers.A gain to 550 would boost the MSCI Asia index’s price-to- book value ratio to 2.1 times from the current 1.7 multiple, the BNP strategists said. The measure rose 0.5 percent to 420.70 as of 12:31 p.m. in Singapore.Though above the long-term average, we believe this multiple is sustainable given the faster-than-expected earnings recovery, the buildup in liquidity and forecast sustained increase in foreign inflows to Asian markets,” the report said.
Taiwan’s Prospects
The brokerage’s forecast for Taiwan’s Taiex also represents a 43 percent gain from yesterday’s close. The benchmark index has already climbed 48 percent this year, in part because of speculation that easing ties with China will boost trade and investment with the larger mainland economy.In Taiwan, investors should buy shares of Mediatek Inc., Advanced Semiconductor Engineering Inc., Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Wistron Corp. and Taiwan Cement Corp., the strategists said.Taiwan is among markets favored by JPMorgan Chase & Co. because of the prospects of a global economic recovery, Adrian Mowat, the brokerage’s chief Asian and emerging-market strategist said in a Bloomberg Television interview today.
“I’d use this weakness in markets to be buying Korea, Taiwan, India and Indonesia,” Mowat said. “Our expectation is that the global economy is recovering. We think we’re going to make more money by being long tech companies in Korea and Taiwan.”
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Wed Aug 19 09 06:41 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
The strong rebound from 65.23 and break of 68.94 resistance mixes up the short term outlook in crude oil. The noticeable three wave structure of the fall from 72.84 to 65.23 argues that it's possibly merely a correction to rise from 58.32 only. We're stay neutral for the moment as long as crude oil stay inside range of 65.23/72.84. On the downside, below 65.23 will revive the bearish case that crude oil has topped out at 73.36 already and will bring decline to 62.70 support first and then 58.32 key level. On the upside, however, above 72.84 will argue that crude oil's rally is still in progress for another high above 73.36.
In the bigger picture, with daily MACD crossed below signal line, rise from 58.32 has possibly completed already. The development puts focus back to medium term trend line support at 64.10. Decisive break there will revive the case that whole rebound from 33.2 has completed at 73.36 already and will turn focus back to 58.32 support for confirmation. Break there will open up the possibility of deep decline to retest 33.2 low. On the upside, above 73.36 will in turn indicates that rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Nevertheless, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal finally.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
The strong rebound from 65.23 and break of 68.94 resistance mixes up the short term outlook in crude oil. The noticeable three wave structure of the fall from 72.84 to 65.23 argues that it's possibly merely a correction to rise from 58.32 only. We're stay neutral for the moment as long as crude oil stay inside range of 65.23/72.84. On the downside, below 65.23 will revive the bearish case that crude oil has topped out at 73.36 already and will bring decline to 62.70 support first and then 58.32 key level. On the upside, however, above 72.84 will argue that crude oil's rally is still in progress for another high above 73.36.
In the bigger picture, with daily MACD crossed below signal line, rise from 58.32 has possibly completed already. The development puts focus back to medium term trend line support at 64.10. Decisive break there will revive the case that whole rebound from 33.2 has completed at 73.36 already and will turn focus back to 58.32 support for confirmation. Break there will open up the possibility of deep decline to retest 33.2 low. On the upside, above 73.36 will in turn indicates that rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Nevertheless, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal finally.
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Wed Aug 19 09 06:42 ET
Comex Gold (GC)
Touching of 944.1 minor resistance indicates that an intraday low is in place in gold and some consolidation could now be seen. But after all, recovery is expected to be limited below 963.1 and bring fall resumption. Below 931.3 will target 927.6 support first and then 904.8 next.
In the bigger picture, we're still preferring the case that price actions from 1007.7 are developing into consolidations to larger rally from 681, probably in form of triangle. Break of 943.6 support indicates that the final falling leg in the pattern has started and will target 904.8 support. But downside will likely be contained there and the case of deep fall to 865 is not likely. On the upside, sustained break of 1007.7 resistance will indicate that whole rally from 681 has resumed and should target 1033.9 key resistance next.
Comex Gold (GC)
Touching of 944.1 minor resistance indicates that an intraday low is in place in gold and some consolidation could now be seen. But after all, recovery is expected to be limited below 963.1 and bring fall resumption. Below 931.3 will target 927.6 support first and then 904.8 next.
In the bigger picture, we're still preferring the case that price actions from 1007.7 are developing into consolidations to larger rally from 681, probably in form of triangle. Break of 943.6 support indicates that the final falling leg in the pattern has started and will target 904.8 support. But downside will likely be contained there and the case of deep fall to 865 is not likely. On the upside, sustained break of 1007.7 resistance will indicate that whole rally from 681 has resumed and should target 1033.9 key resistance next.
Rally's End 'Quite Possibly' in September: Strategist
News Associate
Stocks fell more than 2 percent on Monday following a strong four-week rally. Mike Rubino, of Rubino Financial and Bob Phillips of Spectrum Management Group discussed the selloff.“The news has been we’re due for a consolidation of the market, so that’s what we’re seeing right now,” Phillips told CNBC. “The overall trend, though, is up—and it’s very healthy in terms of the stocks that we track in our quantitative system.”Phillips said he expects to see some upside growth in the markets.“We’ve come off earnings season and there’s no news to track, so the news is turning negative, but the trend is going to be up,” he said.
In the meantime, Rubino said conservative investors should lighten up positions in their portfolios.“We’re ready to exit and we think September is quite possibly the end of the rally…When we see greater deterioration in the market—anything below 8,800 on the Dow would cause us to worry,” said Rubino. However, he recommended the emerging markets, financials, small cap growth and technology sectors for aggressive investors who want to stay in the markets.“Those are the ones that will continue to do well if the market does continue to push forward,” said Rubino.
Rubino Likes:
iShares MSCI-EMF [EEM 35.07 0.75 (+2.19%) ]
Financial SPDR [XLF 13.92 0.28 (+2.05%) ]
iShares S&P 600 [IJR 48.77 0.68 (+1.41%) ]
Rubino Dislikes:
S&P 1500 Homebuilders
2-Year T-Note
30-Year T-Bond
Treasurys/Bonds: Latest Yields and Prices
Phillips Likes:
S&P Technology
S&P Energy
Nikkei 225
Phillips Dislikes:
S&P Financial
S&P Aero & Defense
S&P Health Care
Stocks fell more than 2 percent on Monday following a strong four-week rally. Mike Rubino, of Rubino Financial and Bob Phillips of Spectrum Management Group discussed the selloff.“The news has been we’re due for a consolidation of the market, so that’s what we’re seeing right now,” Phillips told CNBC. “The overall trend, though, is up—and it’s very healthy in terms of the stocks that we track in our quantitative system.”Phillips said he expects to see some upside growth in the markets.“We’ve come off earnings season and there’s no news to track, so the news is turning negative, but the trend is going to be up,” he said.
In the meantime, Rubino said conservative investors should lighten up positions in their portfolios.“We’re ready to exit and we think September is quite possibly the end of the rally…When we see greater deterioration in the market—anything below 8,800 on the Dow would cause us to worry,” said Rubino. However, he recommended the emerging markets, financials, small cap growth and technology sectors for aggressive investors who want to stay in the markets.“Those are the ones that will continue to do well if the market does continue to push forward,” said Rubino.
Rubino Likes:
iShares MSCI-EMF [EEM 35.07 0.75 (+2.19%) ]
Financial SPDR [XLF 13.92 0.28 (+2.05%) ]
iShares S&P 600 [IJR 48.77 0.68 (+1.41%) ]
Rubino Dislikes:
S&P 1500 Homebuilders
2-Year T-Note
30-Year T-Bond
Treasurys/Bonds: Latest Yields and Prices
Phillips Likes:
S&P Technology
S&P Energy
Nikkei 225
Phillips Dislikes:
S&P Financial
S&P Aero & Defense
S&P Health Care
Hedge Funds Soar in '09, Most Still in the Red
By: Reuters
Hedge funds are having their best year since 1998, yet most fund managers still are well below their peaks before the market's meltdown last year, industry analysts said.Hedge fund assets rose 2.5 percent in July, contributing to a 9.9 percent climb over the first seven months of the year, and the best year-to-date results since 1998, Credit Suisse/Tremont Hedge Fund Index said.The industry has a long way to go to recover from 2008, when funds on average suffered their worst year ever and investors redeemed record amounts of money.Morningstar found that only 8 percent of the funds it follows fully recovered from drawdowns since the beginning of 2007. The group mostly includes funds that use "global trend" strategies -- global macro funds and managed futures funds.These funds, which invest in commodities and currencies, suffered the lightest or no losses last year as stock and credit markets tanked.
* US Dollar Index and Currency Rates
By contrast, the strategy with the fewest funds recovering crisis losses were those funds focused on distressed securities, which were hit especially hard last year.
"It takes a long time to recover from drawdowns. There is a compound effect," Morningstar hedge fund analyst Nadia Papagiannis told Reuters. "Given where we are with the economy, we're still not out of hot water.""High-water marks are a critical measure for hedge fund managers. It represents the value they must exceed before they can start generating performance fees of 15 to 50 percent."Since hedge fund drawdowns began in November 2007, fund assets fell more than 25 percent, Morningstar said. Hedge funds have begun to grow again, but have recovered 14 percent, or a little more than halfway.Overall, a Morningstar index of 1,000 funds rose 2.2 percent in July, and 11.5 percent this year through July, the firm said on Tuesday.
Another data provider, HedgeFund.net said on Tuesday that total hedge fund assets rose 6 percent in the second quarter to $1.79 trillion, as rising asset values more than offset $25 billion of customer withdrawals. But net investments in May and June have turned that trend around. Emerging markets-focused funds rank among the best performing funds this year, up 21 percent, and have seen some of the highest rates of investment, HedgeFund.net said.Managed futures funds, which have lagged this year after leading the pack in 2008, are still attracting funds. By contrast, convertible arbitrage funds have soared this year, up 22 percent so far, yet new investment has been slow to follow, HedgeFund.net said.
Hedge funds are having their best year since 1998, yet most fund managers still are well below their peaks before the market's meltdown last year, industry analysts said.Hedge fund assets rose 2.5 percent in July, contributing to a 9.9 percent climb over the first seven months of the year, and the best year-to-date results since 1998, Credit Suisse/Tremont Hedge Fund Index said.The industry has a long way to go to recover from 2008, when funds on average suffered their worst year ever and investors redeemed record amounts of money.Morningstar found that only 8 percent of the funds it follows fully recovered from drawdowns since the beginning of 2007. The group mostly includes funds that use "global trend" strategies -- global macro funds and managed futures funds.These funds, which invest in commodities and currencies, suffered the lightest or no losses last year as stock and credit markets tanked.
* US Dollar Index and Currency Rates
By contrast, the strategy with the fewest funds recovering crisis losses were those funds focused on distressed securities, which were hit especially hard last year.
"It takes a long time to recover from drawdowns. There is a compound effect," Morningstar hedge fund analyst Nadia Papagiannis told Reuters. "Given where we are with the economy, we're still not out of hot water.""High-water marks are a critical measure for hedge fund managers. It represents the value they must exceed before they can start generating performance fees of 15 to 50 percent."Since hedge fund drawdowns began in November 2007, fund assets fell more than 25 percent, Morningstar said. Hedge funds have begun to grow again, but have recovered 14 percent, or a little more than halfway.Overall, a Morningstar index of 1,000 funds rose 2.2 percent in July, and 11.5 percent this year through July, the firm said on Tuesday.
Another data provider, HedgeFund.net said on Tuesday that total hedge fund assets rose 6 percent in the second quarter to $1.79 trillion, as rising asset values more than offset $25 billion of customer withdrawals. But net investments in May and June have turned that trend around. Emerging markets-focused funds rank among the best performing funds this year, up 21 percent, and have seen some of the highest rates of investment, HedgeFund.net said.Managed futures funds, which have lagged this year after leading the pack in 2008, are still attracting funds. By contrast, convertible arbitrage funds have soared this year, up 22 percent so far, yet new investment has been slow to follow, HedgeFund.net said.
Dow Jones Recommended Levels
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade | Aug 18 09 09:53 GMT |
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 9090.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 9054.25, where correction also can be. Then follows 9032.67. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 9004.63. Continuation will bring 8980.43. Today's resistance: - 9213.66, 9245.50 and 9273.00 (main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 9290.37, where a correction may happen. Then follows 9333.10, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 9371.20. Continuation would bring 9416.22.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 9090.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 9054.25, where correction also can be. Then follows 9032.67. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 9004.63. Continuation will bring 8980.43. Today's resistance: - 9213.66, 9245.50 and 9273.00 (main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 9290.37, where a correction may happen. Then follows 9333.10, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 9371.20. Continuation would bring 9416.22.
Elliot Wave: Aud/Usd; Start of a New Down-Trend!?
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by TheLFB-Forex.com
Weekly chart trend: Short possibilities. Main price points: 0.6007, and 0.9848. Looking for: Wave 2/B top.
On the aussie weekly chart, the top of a red wave 2/B may have already hit, as the prices made a recent turning point exactly around the 61.8% area of a wave 1/A distance. This Fibonacci level is a typical retracement level of a wave two and wave B pullback, which means that a turning point is coming. Traders should also be watching the trend-line support on the RSI indicator, where a possible break could signal a short position.
Daily chart trend: Short. Main price points: 0.7701. Looking for: Move lower
On the aussie daily chart, prices are powerfully trading lower after the wave 5) highs around 61.8% Fibonacci level. If the wave count is correct then this was the top of a black wave C/3, which suggests a temporary down-trend. We will be looking for at least a three wave pullback down, near the 0.7701 support area, as long as the current highs of wave C/3 hold.
4 Hour chart trend: Short. Main price points: 0.8476. Looking for: Wave II)
On the 4 hour aussie chart, the prices reached the wave IV support zone, at 0.8178 as expected. After that, prices sharply turned into a black wave II), which is currently testing the trend-line and acting as resistance. Traders with a short bias may be looking to the short side from the current wave II), or after a break of the wave I) low. The wave count remains valid, as long as the market trades below the 0.8476 top.
Weekly chart trend: Short possibilities. Main price points: 0.6007, and 0.9848. Looking for: Wave 2/B top.
On the aussie weekly chart, the top of a red wave 2/B may have already hit, as the prices made a recent turning point exactly around the 61.8% area of a wave 1/A distance. This Fibonacci level is a typical retracement level of a wave two and wave B pullback, which means that a turning point is coming. Traders should also be watching the trend-line support on the RSI indicator, where a possible break could signal a short position.
Daily chart trend: Short. Main price points: 0.7701. Looking for: Move lower
On the aussie daily chart, prices are powerfully trading lower after the wave 5) highs around 61.8% Fibonacci level. If the wave count is correct then this was the top of a black wave C/3, which suggests a temporary down-trend. We will be looking for at least a three wave pullback down, near the 0.7701 support area, as long as the current highs of wave C/3 hold.
4 Hour chart trend: Short. Main price points: 0.8476. Looking for: Wave II)
On the 4 hour aussie chart, the prices reached the wave IV support zone, at 0.8178 as expected. After that, prices sharply turned into a black wave II), which is currently testing the trend-line and acting as resistance. Traders with a short bias may be looking to the short side from the current wave II), or after a break of the wave I) low. The wave count remains valid, as long as the market trades below the 0.8476 top.
Gold Bulls and Bears Fight To Standstill, Trend About to Resolve
By: Clive_Maund
Commodities
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGold's bulls and bears have fought each other to a standstill so that an eerie calm now exists in the gold market, rather like the period in Europe known as the Phony War which was an early stage of the 2nd World War, where despite having declared war on each other, the major powers did not engage in significant military operations. Just as this phase was the "calm before the storm" it is clear from an examination of the gold chart that this time of tranquillity is about to end - that much we can be fairly sure about.
When you weigh up the conflicting indications, it is small wonder that neither bulls nor bears have thus far been able to get the upper hand. Looking at the 3-year chart we can see that we have to take into account the following factors. Gold has since early last year marked out a potential cone-shaped Cup-and-Handle consolidation which is bullish, simulataneously a Head-and-Shoulders continuation pattern, which is bullish, but also a pattern that might turn out to be a Double Top, which is obviously bearish. Moving averages are all in bullish alignment and would support a breakout to new highs, and seasonal factors are strongly in gold's favor as we approach September, but the COT structure for gold is that which typically precedes a downturn.
The number of advisors calling for a gold breakout to new highs is at a very high level, which is normally a contrary indicator, but this is complicated by the fact that it includes many of the best analysts in the business. In addition gold and silver lease rates have dropped close to zero, indicating that storage space is scarce, meaning that they are piling up somewhere. This is what is happening with various base metals whose quantities in storage have risen to "nosebleed" levels - this is bearish because it reveals that instead of being bought to meet industrial demand, these metals are being hoarded by speculators. The exception is copper which it is suspected is being squirreled away by the Chinese "somewhere the sun don't shine". It would appear that "Son of Bubble" is coming of age - do people learn from the past? - no, of course not. Crude oil stocks are also at historic highs, which is not good news for oil prices, and a background negative factor for gold. The standoff in gold is also a reflection of the still unresolved inflation/deflation dilemma.
Commodities
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGold's bulls and bears have fought each other to a standstill so that an eerie calm now exists in the gold market, rather like the period in Europe known as the Phony War which was an early stage of the 2nd World War, where despite having declared war on each other, the major powers did not engage in significant military operations. Just as this phase was the "calm before the storm" it is clear from an examination of the gold chart that this time of tranquillity is about to end - that much we can be fairly sure about.
When you weigh up the conflicting indications, it is small wonder that neither bulls nor bears have thus far been able to get the upper hand. Looking at the 3-year chart we can see that we have to take into account the following factors. Gold has since early last year marked out a potential cone-shaped Cup-and-Handle consolidation which is bullish, simulataneously a Head-and-Shoulders continuation pattern, which is bullish, but also a pattern that might turn out to be a Double Top, which is obviously bearish. Moving averages are all in bullish alignment and would support a breakout to new highs, and seasonal factors are strongly in gold's favor as we approach September, but the COT structure for gold is that which typically precedes a downturn.
The number of advisors calling for a gold breakout to new highs is at a very high level, which is normally a contrary indicator, but this is complicated by the fact that it includes many of the best analysts in the business. In addition gold and silver lease rates have dropped close to zero, indicating that storage space is scarce, meaning that they are piling up somewhere. This is what is happening with various base metals whose quantities in storage have risen to "nosebleed" levels - this is bearish because it reveals that instead of being bought to meet industrial demand, these metals are being hoarded by speculators. The exception is copper which it is suspected is being squirreled away by the Chinese "somewhere the sun don't shine". It would appear that "Son of Bubble" is coming of age - do people learn from the past? - no, of course not. Crude oil stocks are also at historic highs, which is not good news for oil prices, and a background negative factor for gold. The standoff in gold is also a reflection of the still unresolved inflation/deflation dilemma.
Going Through Warren Buffett’s Stock Portfolio
By Jae Jun on August 18, 2009 | More Posts By Jae Jun | Author's Website
http://www.oldschoolvalue.com
With Berkshire Hathaway disclosing their holdings in their latest 2nd quarter 13-F, I thought it would be interesting to go through each position that is held and calculate the stock value in hopes of gaining some ideas.Going through portfolios of respected investors is another way of generating ideas. Davy Bui of The Enlightened American does a fine job of tracking and displaying hedge fund holdings of respected investors in an easy to read format.
There are 41 positions in the portfolio of Warren Buffett and Berkshire so I’ll be breaking it up over numerous posts.Old School Value’s Circle of Competence
Although I’ll try to put a value on each company, except financials, there are industries that are outside of my circle of competence which I may calculate incorrectly. E.g. I don’t know much about pharmaceuticals and commodities and how to look at these businesses as a future going concern which will make it difficult to apply a growth rate that I would be comfortable with compared to others.
Warren Buffett Stock Picks
Going through the first 10 Stock Ideas
* American Express (AXP) - outside circle of competence
* Bank of America (BAC) - outside circle of competence
* Becton Dickinson & Co (BDX) - Latest addition to the portfolio
* Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI)
* CarMax (KMX)
* Coca Cola (KO)
* Comcast Corp (CMCSA)
* Comdisco Holding (CDCO)
* ConocoPhilips (COP)
* Costco (COST) - analysis
(Current stock prices vary due to timing of writing)
Becton Dickinson & Co (BDX: 65.65 -0.65 -0.98%) Stock Value
Becton, Dickinson and Company (BDX) is a medical technology company that operates through three business segments: BD Medical, BD Diagnostics, and BD Biosciences.
BDX Spider Graph
(The above graph is from an analysis of BDX which will be posted as a guest article on another blog which I’ll link to later.)
* Gross, operating and net margins steadily increasing even in recessionary environment
* FCF positive for more than 10 years
* Inventory turnover consistent but margins have increased. Leads to higher efficiency and profit.
* ROA and ROE increasing steadily
* Reduced debt
* Has plenty of FCF to pay down debt rather than issue stock or seek loans
* CROIC is very steady at 17%. Company makes 17c off every $1 of cash invested
* FCF/sales = 12%. Converts 12c of every dollar in sales to FCF.
Intrinsic Value Estimates
DCF Stock Value: $87
Graham Stock Value: $110
Competitor and Peer Comparison: $76
http://www.oldschoolvalue.com
With Berkshire Hathaway disclosing their holdings in their latest 2nd quarter 13-F, I thought it would be interesting to go through each position that is held and calculate the stock value in hopes of gaining some ideas.Going through portfolios of respected investors is another way of generating ideas. Davy Bui of The Enlightened American does a fine job of tracking and displaying hedge fund holdings of respected investors in an easy to read format.
There are 41 positions in the portfolio of Warren Buffett and Berkshire so I’ll be breaking it up over numerous posts.Old School Value’s Circle of Competence
Although I’ll try to put a value on each company, except financials, there are industries that are outside of my circle of competence which I may calculate incorrectly. E.g. I don’t know much about pharmaceuticals and commodities and how to look at these businesses as a future going concern which will make it difficult to apply a growth rate that I would be comfortable with compared to others.
Warren Buffett Stock Picks
Going through the first 10 Stock Ideas
* American Express (AXP) - outside circle of competence
* Bank of America (BAC) - outside circle of competence
* Becton Dickinson & Co (BDX) - Latest addition to the portfolio
* Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI)
* CarMax (KMX)
* Coca Cola (KO)
* Comcast Corp (CMCSA)
* Comdisco Holding (CDCO)
* ConocoPhilips (COP)
* Costco (COST) - analysis
(Current stock prices vary due to timing of writing)
Becton Dickinson & Co (BDX: 65.65 -0.65 -0.98%) Stock Value
Becton, Dickinson and Company (BDX) is a medical technology company that operates through three business segments: BD Medical, BD Diagnostics, and BD Biosciences.
BDX Spider Graph
(The above graph is from an analysis of BDX which will be posted as a guest article on another blog which I’ll link to later.)
* Gross, operating and net margins steadily increasing even in recessionary environment
* FCF positive for more than 10 years
* Inventory turnover consistent but margins have increased. Leads to higher efficiency and profit.
* ROA and ROE increasing steadily
* Reduced debt
* Has plenty of FCF to pay down debt rather than issue stock or seek loans
* CROIC is very steady at 17%. Company makes 17c off every $1 of cash invested
* FCF/sales = 12%. Converts 12c of every dollar in sales to FCF.
Intrinsic Value Estimates
DCF Stock Value: $87
Graham Stock Value: $110
Competitor and Peer Comparison: $76
Laporan Fundamental & Rumor Emiten 19-08-2009
Research Deutsche Bank: Buy BBNI target Rp 2,225.
Ciputra Development Ekspansi ke Timteng
PT CIPUTRA Development Tbk (CTRA) dikabarkan akan mengerjakan proyek properti di Timur Tengah. Menurut sumber Investor Daily, perseroan juga bakal menggandeng perusahaan properti yang saat ini bermarkas di Dubai.
Ekspansi tersebut akan dimanfaatkan oleh beberapa broker untuk mengakumulasi CTRA, sehingga harganya berpotensi menembus level Rp 1.000. Pada perdagangan kemarin, CTRA ditutup naik Rp 20 (2,5%) ke posisi Rp 800.
Cermati Saham Sentul
HARGA saham PT Sentul City Tbk (BKSL) berpotensi naik menuju level Rp 200 dalam jangka pendek maupun menengah. Sumber Investor Daily mengungkapkan, ada pihak-pihak tertentu yang akan mengangkat kembali harga BKSL, seiring terjualnya proyek baru hingga di atas 50%.
Selain itu, kata dia, perseroan juga akan bekerjasama dengan pengembang mal dan hotel ternama di Jakarta untuk membangun properti di Jalan MH Thamrin. Pada perdagangan kemarin, BKSL ditutup terkoreksi Rp 8 (4,9%) ke level Rp 153.
Mayoritas saham Asia meningkat berkat upgrade otomotif Nomura, komoditi, penguatan saham Honda.
Pimco mengatakan dolar AS akan melemah karena kekhawatiran dolar mungkin kehilangan status sebagai mata uang cadangan devisa global.
Usai libur panjang, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) terpantau turun signifikan. Saham PT Adaro Energy (ADRO) pun tak lepas dari koreksi. Namun, investor dapat memanfaatkan momentum dengan melakukan pembelian di harga rendah.
Bumi Serpong Agresif Ekspansi
PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk (BSDE) akan memacu kinerja keuangan melalui pengembangan kluster secara agresif. Perseroan menganggarkan belanja modal (capital expenditure/capex) senilai Rp 700 miliar tahun ini.
PTBA dan ANTM Sanggup Caplok Saham Newmont
Kedua Badan Usaha Milik Negara (BUMN) ini akan berebut saham NNT dengan PT Multicapital, anak usaha Grup Bakrie.
BCA Sebaiknya 'Hold'
Bank Centra Asia Tbk (BBCA) diprediksi hingga akhir tahun ini akan mampu membukukan pendapatan bunga bersih Rp13,5 triliun atau naik 9,7% ketimbang tahun lalu.
Ayo! Beli SGRO, GZCO, INTP & SMCB
Pergerakan IHSG pada perdagangan Rabu (19/8) diperkirakan akan menguat mengikuti pergerakan bursa regional yang kemarin mengalami rebound . Kisaran IHSG berada di level 2.320 - 2.350 dengan saham pilihan seperti SGRO, GZCO, INTP dan SMCB.
Rupiah Mengacu Pergerakan IHSG
Nilai tukar rupiah pada perdagangan Rabu (19/8) masih akan tergantung pergerakan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG). BI juga terus menjaga ketat mata uang RI itu agar tidak terjadi pelemahan terlalu tajam.
Global Land Jajaki Akuisisi Perusahaan Properti
PT Global Land Development Tbk (KPIG) menjajaki akuisisi perusahaan properti di Surabaya dan Bali senilai Rp 50 miliar tahun ini. Perseroan akan memanfaatkan kas internal untuk mendanai akuisisi tersebut.
Laba ISAT Anjlok 3,80%
Sepanjang semester 1-2009, PT Indosat Tbk (ISAT) membukukan penurunan laba bersih sebesar 3,80% menjadi Rp1,01 triliun dibandingkan dengan periode yang sama tahun lalu sebesar Rp1,05 triliun.
BUMI Berpotensi Menuju Level Rp 3.300
Saham PT Bumi Resources, Rabu (19/8) diprediksikan menguat menyusul koreksi teknikal yang terjadi kemarin. BUMI menuju patokan harga obligasi konversinya pada level Rp 3.366. Rekomendasi beli untuk saham sejuta umat ini.
Target Harga TBLA Rp570
PT Tunas Baru Lampung Tbk (TBLA) diprediksi memiliki target harga hingga Rp570 dalam jangka menengah.
BCA Sebaiknya 'Hold
Bank Centra Asia Tbk (BBCA) diprediksi hingga akhir tahun ini akan mampu membukukan pendapatan bunga bersih Rp13,5 triliun atau naik 9,7% ketimbang tahun lalu.
WIKA Menangi Tender Pertamina US$ 62 Juta
Proyek Pertamina itu terdiri dari pembangunan DPPU Pertamina di Bandara Soekarno Hatta dan pembangunan terminal epiji.
FREN Siapkan Dana Kas Internal Untuk Bayar Sinking Fund
Akhir Agustus ini, PT Mobile-8 Telecom Tbk (FREN) harus menyiapkan dana sebesar Rp 8 miliar untuk memenuhi setoran sinking fund.
Merger BUMN Farmasi Dilanjutkan Menteri Baru
Sebenarnya, konsep dan blue print (cetak biru) BUMN farmasi sudah ada.
Summarecon Agung Tbk (SMRA) akan mengembangkan perumahan 250 ha di Bekasi dengan menggunakan dana hasil penerbitan obligasi Rp150 miliar. Hal ini akan menjadi momentum penguatan harga sahamnya.
Penjualan CPO Astra Agro Juli Naik 4,5%
Sampai Juli 2009, volume penjualan CPO PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI) sebesar 585.266 ton atau naik 4,5%, dari 560.277 ton menjadi 585.266 ton.
Usai libur panjang, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) terpantau turun signifikan. Saham PT Adaro Energy (ADRO) pun tak lepas dari koreksi. Namun, investor dapat memanfaatkan momentum dengan melakukan pembelian di harga rendah.
Sumber: Inilah.com, Kontan.co.id, Detik.com, Bloomberg, Reuters.
www.strateydesk.co.id
www.harumdanaberjangka.co.id
www.universalbroker.co.id (Code TF)
Ciputra Development Ekspansi ke Timteng
PT CIPUTRA Development Tbk (CTRA) dikabarkan akan mengerjakan proyek properti di Timur Tengah. Menurut sumber Investor Daily, perseroan juga bakal menggandeng perusahaan properti yang saat ini bermarkas di Dubai.
Ekspansi tersebut akan dimanfaatkan oleh beberapa broker untuk mengakumulasi CTRA, sehingga harganya berpotensi menembus level Rp 1.000. Pada perdagangan kemarin, CTRA ditutup naik Rp 20 (2,5%) ke posisi Rp 800.
Cermati Saham Sentul
HARGA saham PT Sentul City Tbk (BKSL) berpotensi naik menuju level Rp 200 dalam jangka pendek maupun menengah. Sumber Investor Daily mengungkapkan, ada pihak-pihak tertentu yang akan mengangkat kembali harga BKSL, seiring terjualnya proyek baru hingga di atas 50%.
Selain itu, kata dia, perseroan juga akan bekerjasama dengan pengembang mal dan hotel ternama di Jakarta untuk membangun properti di Jalan MH Thamrin. Pada perdagangan kemarin, BKSL ditutup terkoreksi Rp 8 (4,9%) ke level Rp 153.
Mayoritas saham Asia meningkat berkat upgrade otomotif Nomura, komoditi, penguatan saham Honda.
Pimco mengatakan dolar AS akan melemah karena kekhawatiran dolar mungkin kehilangan status sebagai mata uang cadangan devisa global.
Usai libur panjang, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) terpantau turun signifikan. Saham PT Adaro Energy (ADRO) pun tak lepas dari koreksi. Namun, investor dapat memanfaatkan momentum dengan melakukan pembelian di harga rendah.
Bumi Serpong Agresif Ekspansi
PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk (BSDE) akan memacu kinerja keuangan melalui pengembangan kluster secara agresif. Perseroan menganggarkan belanja modal (capital expenditure/capex) senilai Rp 700 miliar tahun ini.
PTBA dan ANTM Sanggup Caplok Saham Newmont
Kedua Badan Usaha Milik Negara (BUMN) ini akan berebut saham NNT dengan PT Multicapital, anak usaha Grup Bakrie.
BCA Sebaiknya 'Hold'
Bank Centra Asia Tbk (BBCA) diprediksi hingga akhir tahun ini akan mampu membukukan pendapatan bunga bersih Rp13,5 triliun atau naik 9,7% ketimbang tahun lalu.
Ayo! Beli SGRO, GZCO, INTP & SMCB
Pergerakan IHSG pada perdagangan Rabu (19/8) diperkirakan akan menguat mengikuti pergerakan bursa regional yang kemarin mengalami rebound . Kisaran IHSG berada di level 2.320 - 2.350 dengan saham pilihan seperti SGRO, GZCO, INTP dan SMCB.
Rupiah Mengacu Pergerakan IHSG
Nilai tukar rupiah pada perdagangan Rabu (19/8) masih akan tergantung pergerakan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG). BI juga terus menjaga ketat mata uang RI itu agar tidak terjadi pelemahan terlalu tajam.
Global Land Jajaki Akuisisi Perusahaan Properti
PT Global Land Development Tbk (KPIG) menjajaki akuisisi perusahaan properti di Surabaya dan Bali senilai Rp 50 miliar tahun ini. Perseroan akan memanfaatkan kas internal untuk mendanai akuisisi tersebut.
Laba ISAT Anjlok 3,80%
Sepanjang semester 1-2009, PT Indosat Tbk (ISAT) membukukan penurunan laba bersih sebesar 3,80% menjadi Rp1,01 triliun dibandingkan dengan periode yang sama tahun lalu sebesar Rp1,05 triliun.
BUMI Berpotensi Menuju Level Rp 3.300
Saham PT Bumi Resources, Rabu (19/8) diprediksikan menguat menyusul koreksi teknikal yang terjadi kemarin. BUMI menuju patokan harga obligasi konversinya pada level Rp 3.366. Rekomendasi beli untuk saham sejuta umat ini.
Target Harga TBLA Rp570
PT Tunas Baru Lampung Tbk (TBLA) diprediksi memiliki target harga hingga Rp570 dalam jangka menengah.
BCA Sebaiknya 'Hold
Bank Centra Asia Tbk (BBCA) diprediksi hingga akhir tahun ini akan mampu membukukan pendapatan bunga bersih Rp13,5 triliun atau naik 9,7% ketimbang tahun lalu.
WIKA Menangi Tender Pertamina US$ 62 Juta
Proyek Pertamina itu terdiri dari pembangunan DPPU Pertamina di Bandara Soekarno Hatta dan pembangunan terminal epiji.
FREN Siapkan Dana Kas Internal Untuk Bayar Sinking Fund
Akhir Agustus ini, PT Mobile-8 Telecom Tbk (FREN) harus menyiapkan dana sebesar Rp 8 miliar untuk memenuhi setoran sinking fund.
Merger BUMN Farmasi Dilanjutkan Menteri Baru
Sebenarnya, konsep dan blue print (cetak biru) BUMN farmasi sudah ada.
Summarecon Agung Tbk (SMRA) akan mengembangkan perumahan 250 ha di Bekasi dengan menggunakan dana hasil penerbitan obligasi Rp150 miliar. Hal ini akan menjadi momentum penguatan harga sahamnya.
Penjualan CPO Astra Agro Juli Naik 4,5%
Sampai Juli 2009, volume penjualan CPO PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI) sebesar 585.266 ton atau naik 4,5%, dari 560.277 ton menjadi 585.266 ton.
Usai libur panjang, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) terpantau turun signifikan. Saham PT Adaro Energy (ADRO) pun tak lepas dari koreksi. Namun, investor dapat memanfaatkan momentum dengan melakukan pembelian di harga rendah.
Sumber: Inilah.com, Kontan.co.id, Detik.com, Bloomberg, Reuters.
www.strateydesk.co.id
www.harumdanaberjangka.co.id
www.universalbroker.co.id (Code TF)