Merry Christmas & Happy Long Holiday Ahead Of A Great New Year 2010

Final Days before this Blog to be suspended for about 2/3 weeks & upgraded to a new blog / web (all brand new address, format, links, contents). Enjoy your long holiday & make yourself cozy to be prepare for the heavy trading in 2010 (The Year of Volatility). Wish You Readers All The Best!!!

Top 10 Outrageous Predictions for 2010

By: Robin Knight, CNBC Assistant Web
GOLD, BONDS, POLITICS & GOVERNMENT, CURRENCIES, STOCK MARKET, INVESTMENT STRATEGY

As New Year's approaches, money managers, strategists, sell-side analysts and economists turn their attention to what the next year holds. Which sector will do best? Which currency, country, asset class? Is it time to invest in that leather-bound waste-paper basket that would really tie the office together? But one group of analysts at Saxo Bank goes one step further to lay out its "outrageous predictions," or "Black Swans" for the year ahead.

It looks to those high-impact, hard-to-predict and rare events that can blindside investors. The exercise aims to challenge market conceptions, but the chance of one of the predictions actually coming true is no better than 50 percent, they say. Judging by last year's list of predictions, it would appear the success rate is closer to zero. Click here to see last year's "Black Swans" and read below to see what Saxo Bank thinks could be happening in 2010.

Bunds Yields Will fall to 2.25%
German bunds, and other sovereign fixed-income assets, will see their yield slump because of deflationary forces and easy monetary policy, according to Saxo Bank. Traders will refuse to buy into the "growth story" that is being pushed by the stock market, the report said. The German 10-year government bond could be forced from 122.6 to 133.3 by the end of 2010, it added.

VIX Will Fall to 14
The VIX could fall from 22.32 to 14 points as trading ranges narrow and implied options volatility declines, according to the report. Investors are showing the same kind of complacency toward risk as they were in 2005-06, Saxo Bank said.

Yuan Will be Devalued by 5% Vs. Dollar
The yuan could be set to fall 5 percent against the dollar due to the spare capacity in China and the general economic backdrop, according to Saxo Bank. The efforts of Chinese authorities to stem the credit growth and avoid bad loans, coupled with the creation of several growth bubbles could spell weakness for the Chinese currency, the report said.

Gold Will Fall to $870 in 2010
The rally in gold prices will be brought to an end by a strengthening dollar, Saxo Bank claimed. Pushing gold higher has become too easy and too widespread to bring results in the short term and a serious correction could send the precious metal toward $870, the analysts said. However, it will reach $1,500 within five years, they said.

Dollar Vs. Yen to Reach 110
The dollar could snap back next year, sending the yen to 110, because the greenback carry trade has been too easy and too obvious for too long, Saxo Bank said. Meanwhile, the yen is not reflecting the economic reality in Japan, which is laden with growing debt and an ageing population, the report said.

Angry Americans to Form Third Party
Next year will bring see an anti-incumbent mood in U.S. politics as a result of bail-outs and general disapproval of both the big parties, the analysts said. The demand for change could bring about a new third party to offer an alternative, they added.

US Social Security Trust Fund Will Go Bust
"This is not so much an outrageous claim as an actuarial and mathematical certainty," the report said. "The outrageous part is that social security taxes and contributions have been squandered for so long."  Next year outlays for the non-existing trust fund will have to be part-financed by the federal government's General Fund, Saxo Bank said. Part of the social security outlays will have to be financed by higher taxes, which will bring more borrowing or more printing, they said.

Price of Sugar Will Drop One Third
A return to more normal weather conditions in 2010 could make sugar one of the less attractive commodities, Saxo Bank said. Meanwhile, Brazil and the US have lowered the ethanol content of gasoline by five percentage points because of the rising price of the commodity, the report pointed out. Both factors could push prices of sugar lower.

Tokyo Small Caps Will Rise by 50%
Tokyo's small-cap stocks have been underperforming the Nikkei 225, but their fundamentals indicate this is a "bargain index," according to Saxo Bank.
"With a price/book ratio of only 0.77 and only about 12 percent of the index consisting of financials, we know no other index this cheap," the report said.

US Trade Balance Will Turn Positive
The dollar has become weak enough to stimulate US exports and put strain on imports, the report pointed out. The changing trend could see one or two months of positive US trade in 2010, it said.

Macro hedge funds, stockpickers tipped for 2010

* Countries set to exit downturn at different speeds
* Big asset price rises of 2009 not expected
* Opportunities to differentiate between economies, stocks
* Investors shuffle winning credit bets of 2009

By Laurence Fletcher and Svea Herbst
LONDON/BOSTON, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Hedge funds making big bets on currencies, commodities and equities are favoured by fund selectors in what is likely to be a more testing 2010 after a bumper year for hedge fund returns.While 2009's best trade has been to buy riskier assets rebounding from last year's depressed prices, funds of funds think 2010 will not see such large price rises and will instead belong to managers with the skill to differentiate between economic and corporate scenarios.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE5BK1JT20091223

BNP Paribas/Fortis: Commodity Outlook 2010

Introduction
China’s rapacious appetite for base metals has shaped this market throughout 2009; without China, and the promise of its long-term growth, prices would be languishing at almost half their current level. Now that China has reiterated it will maintain a relatively loose monetary policy in 2010, and forecasts for China’s GDP growth next year are already exceeding 9%, the year ahead is unlikely to see much price weakness for base metals – if anything, the reverse. We also expect speculative investment levels to rise, given what is now almost certain to be an effectively zero interest-rate environment during the whole of 2010. That spells persistent weakness for the US dollar and, with economic recovery likely across almost all the OECD countries, 2010 is shaping up to see
base metals prices shift beyond their 2009 highs and perhaps challenge levels last seen in H1 2008. The only real negatives are the massive inventories and the threat of over-supply, as miners and smelters ramp-up by too much, and too soon.

http://www.ziddu.com/download/7871686/BNPCommodityDec2009.pdf.html

Hong Kong stocks to rally in 2010 on China stimulus

(Reuters) - Hong Kong shares will likely rally in the first half of 2010 on hopes that China will maintain the massive stimulus spending program launched last year, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday. The benchmark Hang Seng Index .HSI, one of the best performing stock markets in the world so far this year, will eke out mild gains in the fourth-quarter to finish 2009 at 22,000 points, as investors pause after a blistering nine-month rally, the poll of over 20 analysts taken over the last week said.The index could post a full-year gain of over 50 percent in 2009, which would be its best in a decade and a remarkable turnaround from huge losses in 2008, when investors shunned stocks after the global financial crisis.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE5BM36K20091223

Japan Stocks Poised to Rebound in 2010 After Trailing Developed Markets

(Bloomberg) -- Government spending and the central bank’s plan to hold down interest rates will spur a rebound in Japanese stocks, this year’s worst-performing equities among major markets, six of the biggest securities firms said.Kathy Matsui, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s chief strategist in Tokyo, forecasts the Topix index will rally 16 percent from the close on Dec. 22 to 1,050 by the first half of next year as the government moves to prevent a double-dip recession. Nomura Holding Inc.’s chief strategist, Seiichiro Iwasawa, predicts the Topix will climb to as much as 1,200 by the end of 2010.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aCBwibnbuzvQ

Central Banks Avoiding Dollar to Kill 2010 Rally, Barclays Says

(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. dollar’s gains may end in the middle of 2010 as central banks shy away from adding greenbacks to their reserves and the Federal Reserve raises rates at a slower pace than investors expect, Barclays Plc said. Long-term demand for dollars is set to weaken after the currency’s share of global reserves added in the third quarter slid to less than 30 percent, a decline “unprecedented in a period of U.S. dollar weakness,” Barclays said in a note to clients. The dollar stemmed 11 months of declines versus the 16 most-traded currencies in December, gaining against all but two, after investors increased bets the Fed will remove monetary stimulus next year as the economy recovers.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a9vtCAwBPV_E

Dollar’s Rally May Halt at Moving Average: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- The dollar’s 4.6 percent rally this month versus the euro may end after the U.S. currency approached its 200-day moving average, according to Citigroup Inc. The greenback declined 0.7 percent to $1.4343 today after appreciating yesterday to $1.4218, the strongest since Sept. 4. That level was within a quarter-cent of its 200-day moving average of $1.4198. The last time the dollar was stronger than the average was in mid-May. The greenback lost 13 percent from the beginning of that month to this year’s weakest level of $1.5144 reached in November.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=atfND3DARwjA

Track Record Saham IHSG (17 Juni - 23 Desember 2009 = 26 Pekan)

Track Record (17 Juni - 23 Desember 2009 = 26 Pekan)
Average +110.75% (25 Pekan) + 0.1333% (total +3.6% : 27 Saham Pilihan Pekan ini: 16 Des - 23 Des 09) = Total 110.88% (Profit: 25 Pekan / Loss: 1 Pekan; Profit dalam 6 Pekan terakhir; sebelumnya 7 pekan lalu 17 pekan berturut-turut Positive Return) = Average 4.26%/Week. Outperform IHSG dalam 26 pekan = Average +30.46% (IHSG Range 1,750-2,542).

Track Record (16 Des - 23 Des 09)
BMRI +1.1%/ASII +0.58%/UNVR +0.44%/MNCN -4.6%/BSDE 0%/ANTM -1.1%/INDF +3.78%/GGRM +1.5%/UNTR +0.9%/HEXA -2.4%/PGAS -1.3%/SMGR +4.7%/INTP +3.9%/SMCB -1.3%/LSIP -4.1%/INKP +1.1%/BBTN +3.7%/BUMI 0%/TLKM -2.2%/ADRO -1.7%/ASRI -4.5%/SGRO 0%/BKDP +8.1%/INDY +3.7%/INCO +1.5%/DOID 1.3%/GDST -9.9%.

Track Record (09 Des - 14 Des 09)
BUMI 2.450 +3.9%/BMRI +2.7%/BBRI +1.9%/ASII +2.8%/UNVR +1.35%/TLKM +4.8%/BSDE +10%/JSMR +1.06%/ANTM +2.2%/INDF 0%/GGRM +15.5%/UNTR +10.9%/HEXA +6.8%/INCO 0%/BKSL 0%/PGAS +4.5% /SMGR 3.44%/INTP 4.09%

Track Record (25 Nov - 03 Des 09)
BUMI 2.575 (0%)/PTBA 15.750 (+17.7%)/ADRO 1.710 (+3.5%)/BMRI 4.600 (+1.08%)/ BBRI 7.600 (+5.9%)/ BKSL 101 (-4.9%)/RAJA 215 (-2.3%)/CTRA 550 (-1.8%)/BSDE 820 (+3.65%)/BTEL 155 (+1.29%)/INDF 3.175 (0%)/ BNBR 100 (+1.0%)/ KLBF 1.270 (+0.78%)/BRPT 1.330 (+2.2%)/ELTY 23 0 (+4.3%).

Track Record (19 - 23 November 2009)
BUMI +11.7%/DEWA +3.7%/PGAS +1.9%/DOID -0.6%/ASII +0.9%/MEDC 3.7%/ANTM 4.2%/SMGR 0%/HEXA -0.84%/TRUB +4.8%/BKSL +10.1%/PTBA 6.7%/ENRG +5.2%/BMRI +1.06%/TLKM 1.1%

Track Record Periode 09 Nov - 17 Nov: (24 Posisi)
PTBA 5.4%/DOID 10.0%/BBRI 3.3%/BBCA 0.5%/BMRI 0%/ MEDC 2.8%/PGAS 3.4%/JSMR 2.7%/SMRA 0%/CTRS -5.8%/SGRO 3.0%/ INDF 3.2%/KLBF 2.2%/GGRM 1.7%/SMCB 4.9%/SMGR 0%/ANTM 11.2%/MYOR 14.2%/UNVR 7.8%/ITMG 17.9%/BUMI 12.6%/ENRG 1.7%/ TRUB 9.7%/ASII 3.9%/FREN 3.7%

Track Record Periode 26 Okt - 06 Nov: (29 Posisi):
BBRI +2.7/BMRI 0%/PTBA -0.67%/ADRO 0%/PGAS +0.68%/SDRA 0%/AKRA +6.8%/BSDE +12.6%/SMGR 11.1%/SMRA +13.0%/BUMI +11.36%/ENRG +30%/HEXA 4.4%/MEDC 4.8%/BBCA +2.7%/INCO 0%/PGAS +2.7%/SMCB -1.2%/ASII -1.2%/INDF +2.4%/GGRM +12.2%/TRUB 0%/ANTM 3.2%/INKP -9.5%/BUMI -2.04%/SMCB 2.5%/ENRG 9.2%/ASII -0.6%/INDF 5.08%. Total Profit +122.21% untuk 29 posisi.

Track Record Periode 19 - 23 Okt:
BUMI (3.000) -9.16%, JSMR (1.860) -1.07%, INCO (4.225) +1.18%, PGAS (3.750) 0%, PTBA (14.650) +2.39%, ANTM (2.625) -0.95%, SMGR 6.950 -2.1%, UNTR (16.500) -3.03%, SMCB (1.640) -1.8%, KLBF (1.340) -2.2%/HEXA 3.075 -0.8%, SGRO (2.400) 2.08%,BMRI (4.775) -1.04%, BBRI (7.850) -3.18%, AALI (22.200) -0.45%, TLKM (8.650) +0.57%, UNVR (10.850) -3.38%, ADRO (1.510) +7.94%, BBCA (4.775) 0%, ITMG (24.450) 0% (+Dividen Rp 648).

Track Record Periode 12 - 16 Okt:
BUMI (2900) +4.3%, INDF (3100) +3.2%, JSMR (1800) +3.9%, ASII (33500)-0.6%, ANTM (2600) +1.9%, TLKM (8650) +0.6%, UNVR (11000) 0%, UNTR (15500) +7.7%, SMCB (1550) +7.1%, KLBF (1320) +2.3%, BMRI (4875) +1.03%, BBRI (8050) -0.62%, SMGR (6700) +5.2%, BSDE (640) +12.5%, PGAS (3575) +4.9%, MEDC (3175) 0%, INCO (4150) +2.4%, TINS (2200) +1.1%, SDRA (320) 1.5%.

Track Record Periode 17 Juni - 09 Okt 2009 lainnya bisa dilihat di blog (globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com).

Look Ahead: Strategists See Modestly Higher 2010

By: Patti Domm Executive Editor
Stocks should make a more subdued move higher in the coming year, and the Fed is not likely to raise interest rates until at least mid-year.That is the collective view of nine major Wall Street banks, which on average forecast a 9.5 percent gain in the S&P 500 to a level of 1222 for 2010. The S&P, so far this year, has gained 24 percent, more than the Dow's 19 percent and behind the Nasdaq's 43 percent. The consensus view from the nine banks is to "underweight" or "bench mark" U.S. equities. They also expect gold at $1,213 an ounce; oil at $80 per barrel and the dollar versus the euro at a level of $1.45, slightly below where it is now. This tally is courtesy of Birinyi Associates, which combed through some 3,500 pages of 2010 outlooks and compiled the expectations of the firms. Their average outlook for the U.S. economy includes growth of 3.1 percent. The firm with the lowest growth forecast was Goldman Sachs, at 2.1 percent, and the most bullish on growth was Deutsche Bank, at 4.9 percent.

Sakakibara Says Yen May Rise to 80, Endangering Japan Recovery

(Bloomberg) -- Eisuke Sakakibara, formerly Japan’s top currency official, said the yen may climb to 80 per dollar in the first half of next year, hampering the economic recovery. “A strong yen would cause stock losses and enhance deflation, which may cause Japan’s economy to slip into a double-dip recession,” Sakakibara said at an event today in Tokyo hosted by Citigroup Global Markets Japan Inc. Japan’s government would find it difficult to intervene effectively to weaken the yen, said Sakakibara, who became known as “Mr. Yen” during his 1997-1999 tenure at the Ministry of Finance for his efforts to influence the yen rate through verbal and actual intervention in the currency markets.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ajiS0a90D8vE

Pound Falls Below 200-Day Moving Average: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- The pound breached its 200-day moving average against the dollar amid concern that the U.K.’s fiscal condition is deteriorating, putting its sovereign credit rating at risk. Sterling fell below $1.60 today for the first time since Oct. 15, dropping as low as $1.5922. The moving average is $1.6013, according to Bloomberg calculations. So far in the fourth quarter, the pound is the only currency from the Group of Seven industrialized nations to move through its 200-day moving average versus the dollar.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aAJ7hkAofDCY

Double-Dip Is Most Underestimated Risk, Barclays Survey Shows

(Bloomberg) -- A “double-dip” recession is the most “underpriced” risk in financial markets and the dollar would benefit from a renewed bout of market turbulence, according to a Barclays Plc survey. More than 25 percent of the 724 customers surveyed said another downturn in the global economy is the most underestimated risk, the London-based bank said in a statement today. About 21 percent of the participants, including hedge funds, money managers, and central banks, ranked weak-than- expected Chinese growth as the second-biggest risk.About 39 percent of those who responded said the dollar will remain the best refuge in the currency markets in periods of turmoil, followed by the Swiss franc and the yen.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a3QHL8m2oePo

Daily Market Outlook Of IHSG (JSX)

Market Review
Efek positif dari kenaikan indeks saham regional Asia kemarin dan Wall Street di hari sebelumnya, diikuti kenaikan harga komoditas global dan stabilnya mata uang rupiah terhadap dolar, mendorong investor berani untuk masuk ke pasar. Meredanya kekhawatiran terhadap sentimen negatif dari hasil pemanggilan sejumlah pejabat BI dan Wakil Presiden Boediono kemarin oleh Pansus Angket Bank Century, ikut mendorong sejumlah saham yang terpuruk tajam (saham grup Bakrie, Astra, TLKM) dan berada dalam kondisi teknikal yang oversold kemarin, berhasil mendapatkan technical rebound. Kenakan harga komoditi (timah, nikel, minyak, batubara) juga ikut mengangkat harga saham komoditi unggulan seperti BUMI, ITMG, INCO, ANTM, PGAS. Kenaikan indeks saham regional Asia berkat sejumlah saham di AS di upgrade sejumlah brokerage dan imbas pelemahan yen Jepang, ikut topang kinerja IHSG kemarin. IHSG melonjak +36,248 poin (+1,49%), di 2.467,637, transaksi tercatat Rp 2,62 triliun. Investor asing membukukan buy sebesar Rp 118 miliar, dibandingkan net buy Rp 200 miliar hari Senin.

Indeks saham MSCI Asia Pasific menguat kemarin, mendorong indeks mengalami kenaikan terbesar dalam 3 pekan terakhir, karena pelemahan yen meningkatkan prospek pendapatan perusahaan elektronik dan kendaraan Jepang dan kenaikan saham bank di Hong Kong yang baru saja listing. Saham Sony Corp, Toshiba Corp, Elpida Memory Inc Jepang menguat berkat laporan permintaan untuk chip mulai pulih. Saham HSBC Holdings Plc menguat setelah bank sentral HK nmengatakan sejumlah bank mungkin memiliki pertumbuhan keuntungan yang “cukup baik”.

IHSG Outlook
Berubahnya perhatian investor saat ini kembali ke fundamental emiten dan ekonomi nasional yang masih solid menjelang tutup tahun yang biasanya dibarengi oleh aksi window dressing untuk memperbagus portofolio milik fund manager domestik dan asing, diikuti kondisi eksternal yang kondusif dimana imbas kenaikan indeks saham regional Asia dan Wall Street di awal pekan ini, dapat meredam dampak negatif dari masih berkelanjutannya kasus Bank Century dan isu penunggakan pajak oleh PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) dan anak usahanya. Meski Panitia Khusus (Pansus) Angket Bank Century telah memanggil sejumlah pejabat Bank Indonesia hari Senin (21/12) dan Wakil Presiden Boediono kemarin, tidak mendapatkan hasil yang positif seperti perkiraan pasar sebelumnya, masih membebani kinerja IHSG yang mengalami technical rebound kemarin. Sementara imbas kenaikan harga sejumlah komoditas (nikel, batubara, minyak) ikut angkat harga saham komoditas domestik, diikuti bantahan PT Telkom Tbk (TLKM) terhadap isu perseroan sempat menempatkan dana di Bank Century, ikut menopang kinerja IHSG kemarin. Meski kinerja IHSG hari ini masih terbatas, berkat potensi profit taking menjelang liburan panjang Hari Raya Natal.

Stock Picks:
#BLTA: Underperform target Rp 550 #JKON: Outperform target Rp 750

Global Outlook
Momentum technical rebound yang terjadi di sejumlah indeks saham regional Asia dan Wall Street diperkirakan terbatas, berkat perkiraan aksi profit-taking menjelang liburan di AS dan Eropa (liburan Natal) dan hari ini Jepang (Emperor holiday), diikuti data pertumbuhan ekonomi AS kuartal ketiga 2009 direvisi turun menjadi 2,2% dari hasil sebelumnya 2,8% dan terkoreksinya harga komoditas global (minyak anjlok ke $ 72,72, emas ke $ 1.077/ons), dimana membebani kinerja saham unggulan di sektor komoditas, konsumer dan perbankan. Meski indeks saham global masih mendapatkan support dari lebih baik dari perkiraan data Existing Home Sales (+7,4% menjadi 6,54 juta unit) yang merupakan level tertinggi 2 tahun dan lebih baik dari perkiraan projeksi keuntungan Jabil Circuit Inc dan saham KB Home yang melejit berkat positifnya data perumahan tersebut. Aksi window dressing di penghujung tahun juga dapat membantu angkat indeks saham regional Asia dan Wall Street, meski dapat dibatasi oleh kekhawatiran terhadap penguatan dolar AS dari krisis fiskal Eropa, dimana rating kredit Yunani kembali diturunkan menjadi A+ dengan rating negatif oleh lembaga pemeringkat Moodys kemarin.

Technical Analysis:
IHSG menunjukkan signal positif dari pola bullish harami / long opening marubozu (indikasi bullish reversal yang moderat), ditutup dibawah di atas trendline support di 2.433, indikator ADX terkoreksi (indikasi technical rebound yang lemah), MACD diteritorial netral, stochastic crossing down meski masih di teritorial bullish, meski dibawah 5/10/20 day MA, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi technical rebound yang lemah hari ini. Trend bullish dapat berlanjut jika IHSG ditutup harian diatas 2.475 -2.486 (5 & 20 day MA), masih berpeluang ke target 2.505/2.542 (high 17/12). Hitungan EW: formasi diagonal triangle menunjukkan formasi wave minuette ii/2 dalam koreksi C, mendorong perkiraan potensi penurunan lebih lanjut selama berada di bawah 2.505 (FE 61.8%), untuk target 2.415/2.370. Hold sell on rally 2.491-2.530, target 2.370/2.250 stop diatas 2.560, buy break 2.560 target 2.575/2.620. Perkiraan Range: 2450-2500.
Resistance: 2511.07/2492.78/2486.50/2480.21. PP 2456.21
Support : 2449.93/2443.64/2431.64/2419.65
www.strategydesk.co.id
www.universalbroker.co.id (PT Universal Broker Indonesia Securities; Code TF)

Laporan Fundamental & Rumor Saham Indonesia 23-12

Research Kim Eng Sec: Buy AKRA target Rp 1.325

REsearch Danareksa Sec: Buy KLBF target Rp 1.700

Cermati Saham Indosat
HARGA saham PT Indosat Tbk (ISAT) berpeluang menuju level Rp 5.500 dalam jangka pendek. Sumber Investor Daily mengungkapkan, perseroan disebut-sebut oleh pelaku pasar akan membeli kembali (buyback) obligasi dolar AS. Selain itu, rencana perseroan membangun 1.950 unit stasiun penerima dan pemancar telekomunikasi (base transceiver station/BTS) untuk 3,5 G juga akan menjadi momentum kenaikan harga ISAT. Kemarin, ISAT ditutup stagnan di level Rp 4.600.

Saham Indofarma Berpotensi Rp 100
HARGA saham PT Indofarma Tbk (INAF) berpotensi mencapai level Rp 100 dalam jangka pendek. Menurut sumber Investor Daily, rencana merger perseroan dengan PT Kimia Farma Tbk (KAEF) tetap dilanjutkan. Saat ini, prosesnya tengah dimatangkan. Selain itu, rencana peluncuran produk baru dan pembangunan pabrik juga bakal berdampak positif terhadap Indofarma. Kemarin, INAF ditutup terkoreksi Rp 1 (1,2%) di posisi Rp 81.

IHSG dibuka menguat ke level 2.475.49 (+7 poin) di awal sesi perdagangan. IHSG diprediksi masih akan bergerak positif meski dalam kisaran yang sempit. Dorongan sentimen positifnya bursa-bursa global membuat IHSG akan terjaga positif meski tipis. Bursa Wall Street kemarin juga menguat seiring naiknya angka penjualan rumah ke titik terbaiknya sejak Februari 2007. Hal itu memunculkan optimisme akan membaiknya proses pemulihan ekonomi. Pada perdagangan Selasa (22/12/2009), indeks Dow Jones industrial average (DJIA) ditutup menguat 50,79 poin (0,49%) ke level 10.464,93. Indeks Standard & Poor's 500 juga menguat 3,97 poin (0,36%) ke level 1.118,02 dan Nasdaq menguat 15,01 poin (0,67%) ke level 2.252,67.

Rupiah melemah ke Rp 9.510 terhadap dolar mengikuti pelemahan mata uang regional Asia dan Eropa, setelah sejumlah data ekonomi AS menunjukkan pemulihan ekonomi yang berpotensi meningkatkan inflasi dan suku bunga The Fed di tahun depan, di tengah krisis fiskal di Eropa mengikuti penurunan rating kredit Yunani oleh Moodys menjadi negatif dan AA.

Gunawan Dianjaya Tawarkan 8,2 Miliar Saham
PT Gunawan Dianjaya Steel Tbk (GDST) mencatatkan saham umum perdana sekitar 8,2 miliar saham di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) pada Rabu (23/12).

Didukung Sentimen Positif Market
BUMI Terangkat, ‘Trading Buy’
Saham PT Bumi Resources (BUMI), Rabu (23/12) diprediksi menguat sebagai reversal koreksi sebelumnya dan potensi positif pergerakan indeks. Trading buy BUMI!

Voksel Bangun PLTA Rp 150 M
PT Voksel Electric Tbk (VOKS) akan membangun pembangkit listrik tenaga air (PLTA) mini sekitar US$ 15 juta atau setara dengan Rp 150 miliar. Pembangunannya akan direalisasikan dengan menggandeng mitra strategis.

EMISI OBLIGASI CHANDRA ASRI TAHUN DEPAN, Akhir 2009, Laba Barito Tembus Rp 700 Miliar
PT Barito Pacific Tbk (BRPT) memperkirakan laba bersih akhir 2009 menembus Rp 700 miliar, naik tajam dibandingkan tahun lalu yang membukukan rugi bersih Rp 3,39 triliun.

NILAI NOMINAL SAHAM TURUN, Kuasi Reorganisasi Sierad Produce Disetujui
Para pemegang saham PT Sierad Produce Tbk (SIPD) menyetujui kuasi reorganisasi untuk menghapus defisit atas akumulasi kerugian perseroan sebesar Rp 2,38 triliun.

Teledata Akuisisi Centrin Online
Teledata Ltd, perusahaan penyedia jaringan komunikasi asal Singapura, mengakuisisi 77,68% saham PT Centrin Online Tbk (CENT). Nilai pembelian mayoritas saham itu sebesar Sin$ 17,16 juta atau sekitar Rp 116,15 miliar.

PENERBITAN KOS DAN FUTURES DITUNDA, BEI Minta Tarif PPh Produk Derivatif Diturunkan Jadi 0,1%
Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) menunda penerbitan produk kontrak opsi saham (KOS) dan kontrak berjangka (futures) karena pemerintah memberlakukan tarif pajak yang tinggi terhadap transaksi produk derivatif. Otoritas bursa akan meminta pemerintah menurunkan tarif pajak transaksi derivatif yang diberlakukan sejak Februari 2009 dari 2,5% menjadi 0,1%.

Menunggu Keperkasaan Summarecon
Para pengembang menyongsong Tahun Baru 2010 dengan suka cita. Maklum, tahun depan, industri properti diramalkan bakal berotot lagi. PT Summarecon Agung Tbk (SMRA) termasuk yang bakal menunjukkan keperkasaannya.

JAJAKI EMISI OBLIGASI RP 300 MILIAR, Gozco Dapat Pinjaman Rp 600 M
PT Gozco Plantations Tbk (GZCO) melalui anak usahanya PT Suryabumi Agrolanggeng memperoleh pinjaman senilai Rp 600 miliar dari PT Bank Mandiri Tbk. Dana digunakan untuk membiayai pengembangan kebun sawit serta pabrik pengolahan minyak sawit mentah (crude palm oil/CPO).

Barito Raih Laba Rp 560 Miliar
Hingga kuartal ketiga 2009, PT Barito Pacific Tbk (BRPT) menorehkan laba bersih Rp 560,42 miliar. Naik dari 2008 yang rugi Rp 516,92 miliar.

Harga Bioethanol Naik, BUDI Batal Bikin Pabrik
Kenaikan harga komoditas malah membuat rencana PT Budi Acid Jaya Tbk (BUDI) membangun pabrik bahan bakar nabati atau bioethanol di Lampung buyar.

Menanti Realisasi Rencana Ekspansi Kalbe Farma
PT Kalbe Farma Tbk (KLBF) siap memperluas jaringan usahanya pada tahun depan. Ini akan membawa dampak positif untuk kinerja jangka panjang KLBF.

Economic: Kenaikan tarif listrik ditunda
Pemerintah akan menunda kenaikan tarif dasar listrik (TDL) dari rencana awal Januari 2010 hingga waktu yang belum ditentukan karena situasi politik dinilai kurang mendukung implementasi rencana tersebut. Pemerintah, memperhitungkan beban subsidi listrik yang akan terus membengkak jika kenaikan TDL ditunda, setiap bulan beban subsidi listrik berpotensi naik Rp1,2 triliun jika kebijakan tersebut mundur.

Economic: Investor Lokal Hanya Kuasai Sepertiga Saham di BEI
Hingga 17 Desember 2009, BEI mencatat kepemilikan saham investor lokal hanya 32,5% atau setara dengan Rp 360,35 triliun. Sementara, sisanya dimiliki investor asing yakni sebesar 67,5% atau Rp 748,76 triliun.

Infra: 8 Proyek Infrastruktur Batal ditender Tahun ini
Bappenas memastikan, sebanyak 8 proyek infrastruktur yang siap tender pada 2009 batal ditenderkan. Padahal, seluruh proyek yang bernilai US$ 4,52 miliar itu memiliki multiplier effects yang besar terhadap perekonomian masyarakat.

BUMI: Tidak Ada Tunggakan Pajak Rp2,1 T
BUMI menyatakan tidak memiliki tunggakan pajak sebesar Rp2,1 triliun dalam Lapkeu 2007. Saat ni, perseroan tengah meminta klarifikasi dari Dirjen Pajak terkait dugaan tindak pidana pajak yang dilakukan oleh BUMI, KPC dan Arutmin.

JSMR: Laba Bersih FY10 Akan Lebih Rendah vs FY09 atas Investasi Jalan Tol
JSMR memprediksi pertumbuhan laba bersih FY10 akan melambat selama beberapa tahun ke depan karena perseroan tengah berinvestasi membangun jalan tol baru. Pendapatan diprediksi "flat" atau "sedikit lebih rendah" pada 2010 vs target FY09 Rp800 miliar atau $84,3 juta. Sementara prediksi rata-rata 11 analis yang dihimpun Bloomberg mencatat pendapatan akan kurang dari Rp949 miliar. Perseroan menyatakan keuntungan dalam 3-4 tahun kedepan akan lebih rendah namun di tahun kelima, keenam dan ketujuh akan meningkat cukup pesat.

BMRI: Kuasai 10,1% Saham Garuda Pekan Ini
BMRI segera mengkonversi utang PT Garuda Indonesia senilai Rp 1,19 triliun menjadi 10,1% saham. Perseroan tengah menunggu kesiapan Garuda dalam 1-2 hari ke depan.

GZCO: Kantongi Utang Rp600 M
GZCO melaluli anak usahanya PT Suryabumi Agrolanggeng mengantongi pinjaman dari BMRI sebesar Rp600 miliar. Perolehan dana untuk membiayai pengembangan kebun sawit dan pabrik pengolahan CPO. Selanjutnya, perseroan menargetkan pendapatan FY09 sebesar Rp450 miliar dengan laba bersih Rp200 miliar atau melampaui prediksi sebelumnya Rp145 miliar. Saat ini, perseroan tengah menjajaki kemungkinan emisi obligasi di 2010.

CENT: Diakuisisi Teledata 77,68% Saham
Teledata Ltd, Singapura perusahaan penyedian jaringan komunikasi mengakuisisi 77,68% saham CENT sebesar Sin$17,16 juta atau Rp116,15 miliar pada 21 Des09. Teledata akan membayar tunai Sin$5 juta dan sisanya Sin$12,16 juta untuk mengeksekusi convertible bond perseroan.

IPO: Megapolitan Developments Akan 'Go Public'
Perusahaan properti PT Megapolitan Developments berencana melakukan penawaran umum saham perdana atau initial public offering (IPO) pada kuartal pertama 2010.

Direktur Utama Megapolitan Developments Lora Melani Lowas mengatakan langkah ini dimaksudkan untuk ekspansi usaha perseroan, mengingat potensi pertumbuhan sektor properti yang cerah.

OKAS: MNK Tunda Terbitkan Obligasi Rp 370 Miilar
MNK akhirnya menunda rencana penerbitan obligasi senilai Rp 370 miliar dikarenakan belum adanya kesepakatan yield dengan investor. Sebagai gantinya, anak usaha OKAS itu akan mengambil opsi pinjaman bank.

BRPT: Laba Bersih FY09 Melejit 208,42% yoy
Laba bersih BRPT 9M09 melejit 208,42% yoy jadi Rp560,42 miliar vs rugi bersih Rp516,92 miliar dipicu turunnya beban pokok penjualan 36,83% yoy dari Rp14.02 triliun jadi Rp8,85 triliun dan naiknya harga jual rata-rata polipropilena jadi US$1.304/MT di 3Q09 (vs 2Q09 US$1.189/MT) serta polietilena jadi US$1.305/MT (vs 2Q09 US$1.160/MT). Laba kotor 9M09 meroket 15.325,66% yoy dari Rp10,74 miliar jadi Rp1,66 triliun. Secara Q/Q laba bersih naik 46,06% vs 2Q09 Rp383,70 miliar. Sementara itu, perseroan memprediksi laba bersih FY09 tembus Rp700 miliar vs FY08 rugi bersih Rp3,39 triliun.

Megapolitan Siap IPO Kuartal I 2010
Megapolitan Developments berencana akan melakukan penawaran saham umum perdana di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) pada kuartal pertama 2010.

Deretan apartemen, kondominium, serta gedung perkantoran di Jakarta Pusat, kemarin. Tingkat penjualan kondominium di Jakarta pada kuartal IV-2009 sedikit menurun disbanding kuartal sebelumnya, tetapi masih lebih baik dibanding selama semester pertama 2009. Pasokan dan permintaan pasar terhadap kondominium diperkirakan kembali meningkat pada 2010. Menurut REI, industri properti secara nasional akan tumbuh 12%-15% pada 2010.

Sumber: Investordaily, inilah.com, detik.com & Market Flash, kontan, Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC
www.strategydesk.co.id

Stocks Next Year: More Gains As 'Pessimism Bubble' Pops

By: Jeff Cox CNBC.com
From the unbridled despair of 2008 to the only-somewhat bridled optimism of 2009, what a difference a year makes on Wall Street. And so it goes into 2010. Most analysts are offering upbeat forecasts for stocks, though tempered with a healthy dose of what-ifs: whether housing ever does get back on track; whether the Fed raises rates too soon; whether the profligate government spending catches up with the economy and thwarts the nascent recovery. And, most ominously, whether unemployment continues to prevent the consumer from goosing the economy.

Despite the lingering fears, a return to an armageddon-like scenario is being almost wholly dismissed and investors are enjoying the healthy profits that 2009 offered. This year's 19 percent stock-market profit contrasts handsomely with the nearly 40 percent loss of 2008.Positive GDP growth—with some estimates as high as the 4 percent range—coupled with continued help from Washington is seen as a solid barrier against fears of a double-dip.Analysts at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch are calling it the popping of "the equity pessimism bubble."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/34510786

Investors Will Return to US Markets in 2010: Expert
By: Krystina Gustafson Special to CNBC.com
The Federal Reserve's pledge to keep interest rates at near zero for an extended period means U.S. markets will continue to rise in early 2010—and asset bubbles and a shaky world economy will cause some investors to pull out of emerging markets, said Eric Ross of Watch Harbor Asset Management. He and Brian Daley of Conifer Securities offered CNBC their outlooks for next year."I think the worries that we have are really the rest of the world's starting to fall apart economically, particularly the euro zone," Ross said.

As the U.S. market rises, the dollar will continue to weaken, and commodities will head higher, Ross said. And although gold isn't his favorite commodity, it is a good way to play the weak dollar, he said. Ross predicts January's earnings season will be better than many expect, with technology leading the pack. But Daley said investing in equities will still be stock-specific in 2010.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34514860

Santa Out of Puff for DJIA: Technical Charts

By: Daryl Guppy CNBC Contributor
Investors who hope for a Santa Claus Rally in stock markets this year are still waiting. This is a typical annual occurrence when equities post modest, but reliable, gains in late December into the beginning of early January. But so far, Santa's cheer has eluded Wall Street - the Dow Jones Industrial has traded flat for most part of December. Investors should be mindful, however, that there has already been a rally, pre-Santa; one that's been in place earlier on this year - March to be exact. Since then, the Dow has risen from 6,500 to the current 10,500 level. Even investors who hopped on in July at 8,000 have had a good sleigh ride.The question remains: where will the blue-chip index head from here? Will Santa continue to scale higher or will this sleigh ride come to a slow, or perhaps sudden, end in 2010?



















http://www.cnbc.com/id/34517443

Best and Worst Stocks of the Decade

By: Ariel Nelson Director of Market Data & Content Services
Best & Worst of the Decade
As the decade moves towards its close, here is a look back at the biggest gainers and losers over the past ten years. For the next few days, we will highlight the best and worst in stocks, commodities and more as you reflect and plan for 2010.
To start off, let's take a look at stocks in the current S&P 500 [.SPX ]. Using data from Capital IQ, we looked at total return over the past decade, assuming any dividends were reinvested to buy more shares. Three energy stocks lead the top 10 performers with Southwestern Energy [SWN ] providing a whopping total return of 5782%. At the same time, only one tech stock managed to reach the top 10 - thermal imaging systems maker, FLIR Systems [FLIR).

Top 10 S&P 500 Performers over the Past Decade:









On the downside, there are many companies that did not make it through the decade due to financial collapse (e.g., Bear Stearns) or mergers. That being said, there are 8 companies that are still on the S&P 500 that have yielded their investors losses of 90% or more in total return. Topping the list of losers is JDS Uniphase [JDSU, one of the stars of the tech bubble, which is down nearly 99% since December 1999. In addition to the 5 tech stocks that made the bottom 10, are bailed out financials AIG [AIG] and Citigroup [C].

Bottom 10 S&P 500 Performers over the Past Decade:









http://www.cnbc.com/id/34512439

Daily Market Outlook of IHSG (JSX)

Market Review
Peran isu negatif yang melanda sejumlah saham unggulan seperti isu TLKM sempat menempatkan dana di Bank Century, isu desakan kepada Aburizal Bakrie untuk mundur sebagai Ketua Umum Golkar berkat isu tunggakan pajak, telah merontokkan harga saham TLKM dan BUMI, diikuti terkoreksinya sejumlah indeks saham regional Asia dan aksi profit-taking oleh investor menjelang liburan panjang di akhir pekan (BEI tutup 24-25/12) dan tutup akhir tahun. Memanasnya isu politik saat ini dari kasus Bank Century, setelah Pansus Angket memanggil sejumlah mantan pejabat BI hari ini dan berencana memanggil Wakil Presiden Boediono besok, meski Presiden SBY akhir pekan lalu mendukung aktifnya kembali Wakil Presiden Boediono dan Menteri Keuangan Sri Mulyani, meredam desakan penon-aktifan kedua pejabat teras pemerintah tersebut. IHSG terpuruk 78,187 poin (-3,12%), di 2.431,389, transaksi tercatat Rp 4,36 triliun, penurunan terbesar diantara bursa dunia. Investor asing membukukan net sell sebesar Rp 401 miliar kemarin.

Indeks saham MSCI Asia Pasific menguat untuk pertama kali dalam 3 hari terakhir, karena saham produsen komoditi menguat mengikuti kenaikan harga minyak, tembaga dan emas dan prediksi keuangan Qantas Airways Ltd. Saham Qantas Airlines Ltd, BHP Billiton Ltd, Nippon Oil Corp, AU Optronics Corp Jepang melejit kemarin. Membaiknya ekspor Jepang di bulan November (-6.2% y/y) dan imbas pelemahan yen Jepang, ikut menopang kinerja saham Nikkei 225 Jepang dan Asia secara keseluruhan.

IHSG Outlook
Memburuknya prospek IHSG jangka pendek didukung oleh memanasnya situasi politik dalam negeri akibat kekhawatiran kasus Bank Century yang berlarut-larut (Pansus Angket memangggil sejumlah pejabat BI hari kemarin dan Wapres Presiden Boediono hari ini) sehingga dapat mengganggu kinerja Kabinet Indonesia Bersatu II dan mengganggu perekonomian nasional, meski imbauan untuk menon-aktifkan Wapres Boediono dan Menkeu Sri Mulyani tidak disetujui oleh Presiden SBY. Isu negatif dari kasus Bank Century meluas ke PT.Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLKM) yang diisukan sempat menempatkan dana di Bank Century, merontokkan harga saham TLKM (-5,94%) setelah investor melakukan aksi profit-taking. Sejumlah isu negatif dari saham grup Bakrie yang kian terpuruk seperti isu penunggakan pajak PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI), right issue PT Darma Henwa Tbk (DEWA), PT Bakrieland Development Tbk (ELTY) dan PT Energi Mega Persada Tbk (ENRG), ikut bebani kinerja IHSG. Imbas pelemahan rupiah terhadap dolar, berkat meningkatnya permintaan dolar di akhir tahun, pelemahan mata uang regional Asia dari ekspektasi pemulihan ekonomi AS yang kuat dapat mendorong spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga di semester 1 2010, telah menurunkan daya tarik untuk saham dan komoditi sejak akhir pekan lalu.

Stock Picks: Average last 25 week +110,75%. Target 10 - 30%, Risk < -10%
Hold Buy: BMRI 4.525/ASII 34.050/UNVR 11.100/MNCN 215/BSDE 870 /ANTM 2.150/INDF 3.300/GGRM 20.050/UNTR 15.200/HEXA 3.050/ PGAS 3.875/SMGR 7.300/INTP 12.800 /SMCB 1.530/LSIP8.500/INKP 1.740/ BBTN 810/BUMI 2.300/TLKM 9.950/ ADRO 1.750/ASRI 109/SGRO 2.675/ BKDP 135. Buy on weakness (Sesi 1): BTEL/BNBR/BBRI/INDY/SGRO/INCO

Stock Picks:
# AALI: Hold target Rp 24.350 # BRNA: Hold target Rp 700

Global Outlook
Indeks saham regional Asia dan Wall Street diperkirakan akan mendapatkan momentum technical rebound hari ini, setelah kekhawatiran terhadap sejumlah isu negatif seperti spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga AS di pertengahan tahun depan, mahalnya valuasi saham global di tengah krisis fiskal dan prediksi bank sentral Eropa bahwa kerugian akibat kredit macet di tahun 2010 akan meningkat 256 miliar euro, dapat diredam oleh kenaikan harga komoditi (minyak mencapai tertinggi $ 74,20, emas $ 1.109.60) dan Morgan Stanley meningkatkan rating Alcoa Inc menjadi “overweight”, Barclays Plc menyatakan saham Intel Corp relatif murah hingga rekomendasi Goldman Sachs Group Inc untuk membeli saham Mosaic Co dan Potash Corp. Meski penguatan dolar AS yang mendekati level tertinggi 3-bulan terhadap euro di tengah percepatan pemulihan ekonomi dan kekhawatiran sejumlah negara di Eropa mungkin kesulitan untuk membayar hutang mereka, dapat membatasi momentum reboundnya saham global. Perkiraan sejumlah data ekonomi AS pekan ini, akan menunjukkan kenaikan dari periode sebelumnya (GDP Q3 revisi, Existing Home Sales, Personal Spending, Jobless Claims, U Michigan sentiment) dan prediksi Confederation of British Industry bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi Inggris akan meningkat 1,2% di tahun depan, dapat menopang kinerja indeks saham global di awal pekan ini.

Technical Analysis:
IHSG menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola two crows (indikasi bearish continuation), ditutup dibawah di atas trendline support di 2.431 dan dibawah 5/10/20 day MA, diikuti indikator ADX terkoreksi (indikasi momentum penurunan yang lemah) MACD bullish, stochastic crossing down meski masih di teritorial bullish, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi technical rebound hari ini. Trend bullish dapat berlanjut jika IHSG ditutup harian diatas 2.431 (channel support), masih berpeluang ke target 2.452 /2.472 (38.2% FR 2542-2370). Hitungan EW: formasi diagonal triangle telah menunjukkan wave koreksi B telah selesai, saat ini berada dalam proses wave koreksi C dalam subwave i, mendorong perkiraan potensi penurunan lebih lanjut selama berada di bawah 2.547 (diagonal resistance)/2.500 (61.8 FR). Hold sell on rally 2.491-2.530, target 2.370/2.250 stop diatas 2.560, buy break 2.560 target 2.575/2.620. Perkiraan Range: 2400-2475.
Resistance : 2546.07/2517.40/2488.73/2470.38. PP 2452.04
Support : 2423.37/2394.70/2376.35/2358.01
www.strategydesk.co.id
www.universalbroker.co.id (PT. Universal Broker Indonesia Tbk: TF)

Laporan Fundamental & Rumor Saham Indonesia 22-12

Research Danareksa Sec: Buy ELSA target Rp 480

Research Danareksa Sec: Buy DOID target Rp 2.350

Research Danareksa Sec: Buy INCO target Rp 5.000

Cermati Saham Dayaindo
HARGA saham PT Dayaindo Resources International Tbk (KARK) berpotensi menuju level Rp 150 dalam jangka pendek maupun menengah. Sumber Investor Daily mengungkapkan, adanya kabar bahwa India's National Thermal Power Corp yang ingin masuk menjadi pemegang saham perseroan akan dijadikan momentum kenaikan harga KARK. Selain itu, kata dia, ekspor batubara perseroan ke Tiongkok yang naik tajam juga bakal memicu penguatan harga. Pada perdagangan kemarin, KARK ditutup terkoreksi Rp 5 (4,5%) ke posisi Rp 106.

RNI Bidik Indo Acid
HARGA saham PT Indo Acidatama Tbk (SRSN) berpeluang mencapai level Rp 80-100 dalam jangka pendek maupun menengah. Menurut sumber Investor Daily, ada broker-broker tertentu yang akan mengakumulasi SRSN terkait kabar mengenai PT Rajawali Nusantara Indonesia (RNI) yang berminat memiliki saham perseroan, selain masuknya dana asing untuk ekspansi di bidang agrokimia dan bioetanol. Pada perdagangan kemarin, SRSN ditutup melemah Rp 4 (5,7%) ke level Rp 65.

Nilai tukar rupiah bergerak stabil setelah kemarin akhirnya menembus level psikologis 9.500 per dolar AS. Bank Indonesia (BI) diduga sudah masuk ke pasar untuk menjaga stabilitas rupiah, di tengah trend dolar AS yang sedang menguat.Pada perdagangan Selasa (22/12/2009), rupiah stabil di level 9.510 per dolar AS. Rupiah kemarin akhirnya menembus level 9.500 per dolar AS, meski sudah dijaga ketat oleh BI.Di pasar global, dolar AS kembali melanjutkan penguatannya dengan harapan pemulihan ekonomi AS terus berjalan. Euro juga terkena pukulan setelah pejabat Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) mengatakan tidak akan ada bailout untuk Yunani.Mata uang tunggal euro melemah ke 1,4281 dolar, dibandingkan sebelumnya di level 1,4343 dolar. Dolar AS juga menguat atas yen ke 91,15 yen, dibandingkan sebelumnya di 90.40 yen.

Semarak di bursa-bursa utama dunia diharapkan bisa mengerek IHSG ke teritori positif kembali. Analis meyakini IHSG bisa bertahan di level 2.500 hingga akhir tahun ini. IHSG pada perdagangan Selasa (22/12/2009) diprediksi bergerak menguat.Sentimen positif datang dari bursa Wall Street yang meriah menyambut libur panjang natal. Aksi window dressing, dimana para manajer investasi berupaya mempercantik portofolionya turut menggerakkan pasar.
Pada perdagangan Senin (21/12/2009), indeks Dow Jones industrial average (DJIA) ditutup menguat 85,25 poin (0,83%) ke level 10.414,14. Indeks Standard & Poor's 500 juga menguat 11,58 poin (1,05%) ke level 1.114,05 dan Nasdaq menguat 25,97 poin (1,17%) ke level 2.237,66. Bursa Tokyo juga mengawali perdagangan di Hari Ibu ini dengan penguatan. Indeks Nikkei-225 dibuka naik hingga 72,53 poin (0,71%) ke level 10.256.

BUMI Investasi Dana ke Recapital Advisor
BUMI masih bernegosiasi dengan Recapital Advisor untuk investasi sektor batubara. BUMI juga membuka kemungkinan untuk mengakuisisi sejumlah perusahaan sepanjang 2010.

Multipolar Beli 250 Rb Saham MPPA
PT Multipolar Tbk (MLPL) telah mengeksekusi 250.000 saham PT Matahari Putra Proma Tbk (MPPA) pada 11-16 Desember 2009.

PT CIMB Securities mempertahankan rating Coal Sector pada Overweight.CIMB Securities melihat potensi upside bagi produsen batubara dengan top pick di Adaro Energy (ADRO), dimana ekspektasi cukup rendah. Adaro menargetkan peningkatan produksi batubara 10% pada 2010 menjadi 45-50MT, dari pencapaian 2009 sebesar 41 MT.CIMB juga respek United Tractors (UNTR) pasca rencana akuisisi 2 tambang baru tahun depan. UNTR menargetkan kenaikan produksi 10% di 2010, sedang overburden removalnya 10-15 persen. Laba bersih Perseroan per September pun mencapai Rp2,96 triliun atau naik 29,39% dibanding periode serupa 2008 sebesar Rp2,09 triliun.

BLTA Cetak Laba Bersih Turun 39,78%
BLTA mencetak penurunan laba bersih pada kuartal III-2009 sebesar 39,78% menjadi US$9,70 miliar dibandingk an periode yang sama 2008 US$161,1 miliar.

BURSA SAHAM JATUH, BEI Pertanyakan Tunggakan Pajak Bumi Resources
PT Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) akan meminta penjelasan kepada PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) terkait dugaan tunggakan pajak senilai Rp 2,1 triliun. Rencananya, BEI dan manajemen Bumi menggelar pertemuan bilateral hari ini (22/12).

Yuh Fong Lepas Saham Fortune ke Surya Mega
Yuh Fong Industrial Co Ltd dan PT Surya Mega Investindo menandatangani nota kesepahaman (memorandum of understanding/MoU) terkait pengalihan pemilikan pemegang saham PT Fortune Mate Indonesia Tbk (FMII).

PENAWARAN JADI US$ 128 JUTA, Camillo Eitzen akan Miliki 25% Saham Berlian Tanker
PT Berlian Laju Tanker Tbk (BLTA) akan mengonversi 20-25% sahamnya untuk melunasi pembelian 100% saham Camillo Eitzen Co & ASA (CECO).

Radiant Incar Kontrak Baru Rp 1,4 Triliun
PT Radiant Utama Interinsco Tbk (RUIS) mengincar perolehan kontrak baru senilai Rp 1,3-1,4 triliun pada 2010. Target tersebut tumbuh 30-40% dibandingkan pencapaian tahun ini yang diperkirakan sekitar Rp 1 triliun.

Laba Bersih AKR Corporindo Naik 22%
PT AKR Corporindo Tbk (AKRA) mencatat kenaikan laba bersih 22% pada kuartal III-2009 menjadi Rp 81,39 miliar dibanding periode sama tahun lalu Rp 66,74 miliar.

Penjualan Tri Polyta Bakal Capai Rp 4,5 Triliun
PT Tri Polyta Indonesia Tbk (TPIA) kemungkinan menaikkan target penjualan bersih akhir 2009 menjadi Rp 4,5 triliun atau naik 11,3% dari estimasi awal tahun Rp 3,99 triliun.

XL Akan Buyback Obligasi US$ 59,43 Juta
PT XL Axiata Tbk (EXCL) akan membeli kembali (buyback) sisa obligasi global senilai US$ 59,43 juta atau sekitar Rp 590 miliar pada 18 Januari 2010. Perseroan akan agresif mengurangi jumlah utang dalam mata uang dolar AS.

Bakrie Sumatera Siapkan Capex Rp 1,2 Triliun
PT Bakrie Sumatera Plantations Tbk (UNSP) menganggarkan belanja modal (capital expenditure/capex) tahun depan sebesar Rp 1,2 triliun, naik 300% dibanding tahun ini sekitar Rp 300 miliar.

KAEF Pilih Holding
PT Kimia Farma Tbk (KAEF) lebih menyukai pembentukan induk perusahaan atau holding untuk penggabungan BUMN-BUMN farmasi.

BUMI Investasi Dana ke Recapital Advisor
BUMI masih bernegosiasi dengan Recapital Advisor untuk investasi sektor batubara. BUMI juga membuka kemungkinan untuk mengakuisisi sejumlah perusahaan sepanjang 2010.

Sumber: Investordaily, inilah.com, detik.com & Market Flash, kontan, Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC
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Daily Technical Analysis Global Forex

EUR-USD
(-60p) Euro menunjukkan signal positif dari pola inverted hammer (indikasi bullish reversal) kendati masih berada di dalam down channel, seharusnya meredam potensi penurunan meski masih gagal ditutup diatas 1.4351 hari ini. Indikator ADX meningkat, stochastic very oversold, MACD berada di teritorial bearish, dukung potensi penurunan terbatas dan dapat picu potensi technical rebound. Support 1.4250/1.4120. Resistance di 1.4410/1.4500. Euro saat ini berada dalam wave koreksi III/5 dalam C/X, menunjukkan potensi penurunan ke target extend ke 1.4250/1.4120 setelah gagal bertahan diatas 1.4350. Buy break 1.4510 target 150p stop 30p, sell 1.4500 target 1.4280 stop 50p, hold buy 1.4280 & 1.4350 target 1.4500 stop 60p, buy 1.4150 target 1.4410 stop 50p.
USD-JPY
(-50P) USDJPY memberikan signal positif dari pola candle long bullish yang menunjukkan bullish continuation dan setelah breakout pola bull flag, berada diatas channel support di 90.41 dan menunjukkan potensi buy on weakness setelah ditutup diatas 89.60. Indikator ADX meningkat, MACD di teritorial positif & stochastic trending up mendorong potensi kenaikan lebih lanjut dalam trend masih bullish. Hitungan EW menunjukkan USDJPY berada dalam wave koreksi v/b dalam C, seharusnya dapat memicu kenaikan ke 91.50/92.40 selama berada di atas 89.60. Resistance berada di 91.50/92.50, support 90.40/89.60. Buy 88.20 target 90.50 stop 87.00, buy 89.60 target 90.80 stop 89.00, Sell 92.00 target 89.50 stop 50p. Sell break 90.40 target 89.40.
GBP-USD
GBP menunjukkan signal netral dari pola candle bearish with long uptail (indikasi momentum penurunan mereda) meski masih gagal ditutup diatas 1.6171 (resistance channel) dan berada dalam downchannel channel minor, didukung indikator ADX meningkat, stochastic oversold dan bearish, MACD di teritorial bearish, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi penurunan lebih lanjut dan membatasi potensi technical rebound. GBP juga masih berada dalam pola descending triangle. Hitungan EW menunjukkan GBP di wave v extended dalam 3/C. Buy 1.6000 target 1.6400 stop 60p, buy break 1.6180 target 1.6400 stop 50p, buy break 1.6420 target 1.6600 stop 50p, sell 1.6150 target 1.6000 stop 50p, buy 1.5870 target 1.6250 stop 60p.
AUD-USD
AUD mendapatkan signal negatif dari indikasi pola candle bearish engulfing (indikasi bearish continuation) & bertahan dibawah channel resistance di 0.8900, didukung ADX rebound (momentum penurunan yang kuat), MACD bearish & stochastic crossover sell mendukung perkiraan kenaikan terbatas dan berpotensi mengalami penurunan lebih lanjut. Hitungan EW menunjukkan AUD saat ini menunjukkan wave koreksi v/3 extended dalam B. Resistance 0.8900/0.9040, support di 0.8740/0.8650. Buy break 0.8910 & buy break 0.9050 target 0.9200 stop 60p, sell 0.9200 target 0.9000 stop 60p. Buy 0.8680 & Hold buy 0.8800 target 0.9030 stop 60p, buy 0.8600 target 0.9000 stop 60p, sell break 0.8560 target 0.8160 stop 60p.
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Daily Technical Analysis Stock Index Asia Futures

SSIH0
Nikkei memberikan signal netral dari pola candle bullish dengan long uptail (indikasi bullish continuation) dan bertahan di atas 10130 (76.4% FR), membatasi momentum penurunan jangka pendek. Sementara indikator stochastic overbought dan MACD bullish, ADX terkoreksi (indikasi momentum penurunan lemah), dukung potensi sell on rally diatas 10.260. Potensi kenaikan memberikan peluang untuk sell on rallies, selama masih ditutup dibawah 10.260 (100.0 FR). Hitungan EW menunjukkan indeks berada di wave iv/3. Resistance di 10210/10.260. Support 10050/9930. Rekomendasi: Buy 9900 target 10250 stop 60p. Sell break 10000 & 9850 target 9650 stop 100p, hold Sell 10250 & 10400 target 9950 stop 100p.
KSIH0
Indeks menunjukkan signal netral dari candle spinning top (indikasi momentum kenaikan terbatas dan cenderung konsolidasi) dan ditutup di bawah 215.80, didukung stochastic crossover, ADX meningkat, MACD di teritorial netral, dapat membatasi potensi penurunan dan picu aksi technical rebound. Hitungan EW menunjukkan wave koreksi ii/B dalam 4 untuk target 218.90, selama bertahan diatas 209.80. Resistance 215.85/217.80. Support 213.20/211.50 Rekomendasi: Buy 213.00 target 217.50 stop 100p, sell 217.80 & 218.90 target 213.00 stop 60p, sell 215.80 target 212.90, buy 209.50 target 217.00 stop 60p, sell break 212.50 target 209.80.
HSIZ9
Indeks menunjukkan signal positif dari pola inverted hammer (indikasi bullish reversal yang moderat) meski masih berada di bawah 21.344 (32.8 FR) dukung potensi kenaikan terbatas, cenderung potensi sell on rally. Indikator ADX meningkat, MACD bearish & stochastic crossing down dan oversold, dukung potensi sell on rally. Support 20890/207500. Resistance 21/21850. Hitungan EW indeks menunjukkan koreksi wave 5/C. Rekomendasi: Sell 21650 target 21150 stop 60p. buy break 21700 target 22200 stop 60p. Sell 22000 target 21500 stop 100p. Buy break 21060 & 21350 target 22000, sell 21340 target 20850 stop 60p, Sell break 20.850 target 20650 stop 60p, buy 20.650 target 21350 stop 60p (+100p)
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S&P 500 May Gain 12%, Swedbank Says: Stocks Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may jump 12 percent to the 1,230 level within the next two months, based on Fibonacci calculations, according to a technical analyst at Sweden’s Swedbank AB. “We’ve been in a tight trading range for several weeks now, but I think it is likely we’ll break to the upside and reach the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement level at 1,230 in late January or early February,” Stockholm-based Robert Oldstrand said in a phone interview. “I think we’ll see a fairly good first half and maybe a tougher second half to next year.”After surging as much as 64 percent from a 12-year low on March 9, the S&P 500 has been little changed since mid-October amid concern the economy’s recovery from the worst recession in seven decades won’t be sustained.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=as.5ZYVab.Uo

Australian Dollar May Fall to 3-Month Low: Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar may slide to its weakest since September after forming a “head-and- shoulders” pattern that signals further declines, UBS AG said, citing trading charts. The currency’s decline through so-called neck-line support from the Nov. 27 low to the Nov. 2 low, “confirms a head-and- shoulders stop formation that projects down to the 84.10-cent area,” James Chorek, director of global technical strategy at UBS in Stamford, Connecticut, wrote in a note to clients yesterday. “Initial small support is at 86.04 cents.”Australia’s currency fell 0.2 percent to 87.99 U.S. cents as of 10:51 a.m. in Sydney and touched its weakest since Oct. 6. The so-called Aussie dollar last traded near 84.10 cents on Sept. 4.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ai3zDLKdHfv4

Morgan Stanley: 2010 Asia Outlook: From Exit to Exit

Japan
Loose Money and a Turn Towards Fiscal Discipline
By Takehiro Sato, Robert Alan Feldman & Takeshi Yamaguchi | Tokyo
Mild dip expected in 1H10. Japan has begun to recover in 2009 along with other nations, but the recovery momentum faces several short-run barriers. On the fiscal side, we expect changes in the composition of expenditures to slow public works investment from Jan-Mar 2010. We also expect adverse conditions to persist in the employment and earnings climate. In manufacturing, we anticipate cuts of surplus production capacity and of regular employment. Signs to the downside are already evident in economic indicators. The current conditions DI (diffusion index) in the November Economy Watchers' Survey recorded the worst MoM decline since the survey began. This DI leads the economy by about three months, so it suggests another soft patch starting in Jan-Mar.

Given our outlook for a growth lapse in Jan-Mar 2010, manufacturers' performance will likely deteriorate. However, we do not think the impact on F2011 (ends March 2011) corporate earnings will be so significant. We look for profit to grow 15% in F11 and 10% in F12 due to strict cost control. That said, the profit decline in F09-F10 was very substantial, so we do not believe that corporate earnings will recover over the next two years to the F08 level.

Additional monetary easing is likely. At the special Monetary Policy Meeting (MPM) on December 1, the BoJ announced a re-expansion of special lending, which it had previously cut when it terminated the facility for corporate financing at the October MPM. Now, the BoJ will provide three-month term money at a fixed rate of 0.1% and up to JPY10 trillion, thereby eventually forcing down term money rates.

The BoJ indicated that it could opt for further measures depending on economic developments. In this sense, we doubt that the December 1 special MPM marked the end of new easing measures. With the economy at a standstill, we expect that any improvement of the output gap will be delayed, keeping baseline prices (core-of-core) in deep negative territory. We believe that the DPJ government will see this as an intensifying issue ahead of the Upper House elections in July 2010.

Given the above, we expect more accommodative policy ahead, including (1) enhanced provision of funds, (2) repeated rollover of JGBs held by the BoJ and stepped-up Rinban operations (JGB purchasing), (3) unsterilized FX intervention, and (4) stronger commitment to policy duration and rate cuts. We think the first two measures are quite likely, and 1H10 is the probable timing. However, the market may well regard this as insufficient, if the government is serious about tackling deflation. On the other hand, we expect the exit timing for Japan to slip beyond Jul-Sep 2011. Indeed, the BoJ itself anticipates deflation to continue for three years through F12 in its Outlook Report from October 2009.

Ultimately, if the government is serious about beating deflation, it could adopt an inflation target. To date the BoJ has consistently played down this option, maintaining that under deflation there are no means of achieving an inflation target. However, Japan could follow the example of the UK, where the government has set an inflation target but handed the central bank a mandate to achieve it. As market expectations for inflation would kick in under these circumstances, the BoJ would likely respond by buying more JGBs. The government/MoF could then tilt towards a weak yen policy, in line with the monetary easing options listed above. A policy of strengthening the home currency during deflation would be a contradiction. The macro stance consistent with escaping deflation is a combination of further monetary easing and a weaker home currency. We expect Japan's macro policy to turn in this direction in 2010.

Credible commitment to mid/long-term fiscal discipline is essential. For fiscal policy, the prospect of a huge shortfall in tax revenues has spread concern about the sustainability of Japan's fiscal situation. However, we do not believe that Japan faces an imminent fiscal collapse, even with the larger fiscal deficit and debt load. We have confidence that 2% long-term yields, a level that has rarely been breached in the last ten years, remains a firm resistance level, so long as fiscal reform policies are clarified soon.

To regain investor confidence, mid/long-term targeting of the primary balance is key to averting a debt crisis. In 1H10, the government will work on preparing a medium-term fiscal framework of revenue forecasts and outline expenditures for 2011-13. These forecasts for revenue and spending will then form the assumptions in drafting a budget to cover multiple years from F12. This has the potential to significantly alter the budget compilation process from a bottom-up exercise to more of a top-down one. Earlier attempts were made under the LDP to formulate a broad budget framework based on macro forecasts of the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy, but this time we think the chances of success are greater, given that politicians are taking a guiding role in the budget drafting process. If revenue projections in the medium-term forecasts act as a ceiling for budget spending as a whole, fiscal discipline could be enhanced to a greater extent than under the practice up to now of compiling the budget at the level of individual ministries.

China
A Goldilocks Scenario in 2010
By Qing Wang, Denise Yam, CFA | Singapore & Steven Zhang | Shanghai
We expect the Chinese economy to deliver stronger, more balanced growth with muted inflationary pressures in 2010, featuring 10% GDP growth and 2.5% CPI inflation. This baseline forecasts hinge on two key assumptions: i) the strong domestic demand in 2009 is largely sustained; and ii) the recovery in G3 economies remains tepid (see Global Forecast Snapshots: ‘Up' without ‘Swing', September 10, 2009).

The tight supply of raw materials and energy inputs has been a significant headwind to rapid expansion of the Chinese economy in recent years. When economies in the rest of the world are also in an expansionary phase of the cycle, any incremental demand from China tends to drive up the global prices of commodities, generating inflationary pressures and making it a challenge to deliver a Goldilocks scenario - a mix of high growth and low inflation.If, however, the recovery of the rest of the global economy were to remain tepid in 2010, it would help China to benefit from relatively low commodities prices for a reasonably long period of time until the economies of its competitors for the same limited amount of supply of commodities recover. This potentially creates a ‘window of opportunity' for China to deliver a Goldilocks scenario.

We forecast China's GDP growth at 10% for 2010 and think that the growth drivers are likely to become more balanced. The aggressive policy responses so far this year will likely continue to fuel rapid investment growth in the rest of 2009. Also, we expect property investment to accelerate in 2010, partly offsetting the slowdown in infrastructure investment expected to materialize because of the high base in 2009. Private consumption is likely to improve steadily through 2010 as consumer confidence and employment improve. We expect export expansion to resume in 2010 following a sharp contraction in 2009, which, together with a recovery in profits, should help underpin non-real estate private investment.

In terms of trajectory, while the 2Q09 rebound represents a sharp bounce from the cyclical trough, we expect the sequential growth rate to return to a more sustainable 2.0-2.5% in the quarters ahead. Nevertheless, we project that the year-on-year growth rate is set to accelerate further in the next few quarters, surging to double-digit rates by 4Q09 and peaking in 1Q10, before tapering off - on the base effect - toward a more sustainable high-single-digit level. The moderation in growth rate over the course of 2010 would reflect acceleration in private consumption and investment (e.g., property investment) and recovery in exports, partly offset by a smaller dose of policy stimulus.

A Goldilocks Scenario in 2010: Muted Inflationary Pressures
Despite strong headline GDP growth, concern about possible high inflation in China in 2010 is unwarranted, in our view. We forecast average CPI inflation at about 2.5% in 2010. Of note, we caution that predicting high inflation in 2010, based on the strong growth of monetary aggregates so far this year, could err on the side of being too simplistic and mechanical.
• First, the strong headline M2 growth in 2009 substantially overstates the true underlying monetary expansion, as it fails to account for the change in M2 caused by the shift in asset allocation by households between cash and stocks. We estimate that the growth rate of adjusted M2 - the rate that truly reflects the underlying economic transactions - is much lower than suggested by the high growth of headline M2 (see China Economics: Worried About Inflation? Get Money Right First, October 19, 2009).
• Second, generally weak export growth, which we think could be a proxy for the output gap in China, will remain a strong headwind containing inflationary pressures. These two demand-side factors combined would suggest that the 2000-01 situation - featuring relatively high money growth but relatively low inflation - is likely to be repeated in 2010.
• Third, from the supply side, while our commodities research team expects commodities prices to rise steadily in 2010, they do not foresee a significant surge in prices. They project crude oil at about US$85 per barrel in 2010 (see Crude Oil: Balances to Tighten Again by 2012, September 13, 2009). Assuming the cost pressures stemming from these supply-side shocks are able to pass through the supply chain to be reflected in the corresponding price increase of downstream products without much constraint from the demand side, we forecast a similar trajectory of CPI inflation for 2010 to the one derived from demand-side analysis (see China Economics: Inflation Outlook in 2010: A Supply-Side Perspective, November 1, 2009).

A Goldilocks Scenario in 2010: Policy Normalization
The super-loose policy stance is to normalize but remain generally supportive in 2010. In view of the inflation outlook, we expect the current policy stance to turn neutral at the start of 2010 as the pace of new bank lending creation normalizes from about Rmb10 trillion in 2009 to Rmb7-8 trillion in 2010. The M2 growth target will likely be set at 17-18%, in our view.Policy tightening in the form of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) hikes and base interest rate hikes is unlikely before mid-2010, in our view. If, however, excess liquidity stemming from large external balance of payment surpluses were to emerge earlier than expected, we would not rule out the possibility of the RRR hike cycle starting as early as the beginning of 2Q10. Indeed, with inflationary pressures likely muted, the monetary policy priority in 2010 is likely to be on liquidity management through RRR hikes.

Specifically, we expect the PBoC to hike base interest rates in early 3Q10, when we expect CPI inflation to have exceeded 3.0%Y in some months. However, since we forecast CPI inflation to moderate in 2H10, we expect no more than two 27bp rate hikes over 2H10, the primary purpose of which is to manage inflation expectations. In view of the current de facto peg of the Rmb against the USD, the timing of China's rate hike will also hinge on that of the US Fed, in our view. In particular, we do not expect the PBoC to hike interest rates before the Fed does. Incidentally, our US economics team expects the Fed to raise interest rates in 3Q10 (see Richard Berner and David Greenlaw's Hiring Still Poised to Improve Early in 2010, November 9, 2009).

We maintain our long-standing view that the current renminbi exchange rate arrangement will remain unchanged through mid-2010. While we believe an exit from the current regime of a de facto peg against the USD may occur in 2H10, any subsequent renminbi appreciation against the USD is, in our view, likely to be modest and gradual (see China Economics: An Exit Strategy for the Renminbi? June 9, 2009 and China Economics: A Dialogue on the Renminbi, November 11, 2009).

Looking ahead, China is likely to repeat a situation similar to that during 2005-08, featuring strong expectations of renminbi appreciation, ‘hot money' inflows, abundant external surplus-driven liquidity (as opposed to the current abundant liquidity due to loose monetary policy), and the attendant upward pressures on asset prices.

Indeed, against a Goldilocks macroeconomic backdrop, coping with rising asset price inflation pressures will likely become an important challenge to policymakers in 2010. To this end, ‘containing financial leverage' in the economic system is likely to be a top policy priority with a view to minimizing systematic risks in the event of a bursting of an asset price bubble. This could entail a variety of measures:
• Strict mortgage rules for homebuyers;
• Enforcing restrictions on margin trading in the stock market;
• Strict capital adequacy requirements for banks;
• Asymmetric liberalization of external capital account controls that induce capital outflows (e.g., through QDII programs) and discourage capital inflows; and
• Attempting to prevent one-way plays on the Rmb exchange rate against the USD that would induce hot money inflows.

China's Super-Cycle in a Globalized World Economy
The Goldilocks scenario in 2010 should be considered as a phase of China's super-cycle in a globalized world economy that comprises ‘overheating in 2007', ‘imported soft landing in 2008' and ‘policy-induced decoupling' in 2009. The Chinese economy was overheating in 2007, with GDP growth of 13% and CPI inflation of about 5%. We envisaged an ‘imported soft landing' scenario in 2008, which hinged on two key calls:
a) A US-led global downturn that would slow the rapid expansion of China's exports, thereby helping the economy to cool off; and
b) A muddling-through style for macroeconomic management - i.e., as external demand weakened, domestic policy tightening would not be followed through consistently and would even be eased over the course of the year (see China Economics: Journey into Autumn: An Imported Soft Landing in '08, December 3, 2007).

The ‘imported soft landing' indeed played out in most of 2008. However, it was disrupted and derailed by the onset of the Great Recession, such that China's economy suffered a hard landing in 4Q08-1Q09 (see China Economics: Outlook for 2009: Getting Worse Before Getting Better, December 9, 2008). Indeed, when turmoil of such global scale hit, there was an initial, indiscriminately strong negative effect from the shock on every economy that is deeply integrated into the global economy.

The strength and speed of policy responses in the immediate aftermath of the turmoil were, however, quite uneven among countries, resulting in different patterns of post-crisis recovery. China is a case in point. The aggressive policy response by the Chinese authorities helped translate China's ‘strong balance sheet' into a ‘decent-looking income statement', which distinguishes China from those countries that either suffer from a paralyzed financial system or are unable to launch strong pro-growth fiscal or monetary policy responses due to weak fiscal and/or external balance of payments positions. This makes China the first major economy to recover from the global market turbulence with strong momentum, effecting a policy-induced economic decoupling between China and the rest of the world (see China Economics: Policy-Driven Decoupling: Upgrade 2009-10 Outlook, July 16, 2009).

Specifically, a ‘Goldilocks recovery scenario' has indeed played out: the government's growth-supporting policies enable asset reflation, which underpins consumer and investor confidence and prevents the harsh adjustment in domestic consumption and private investment (e.g., real estate) in 1H09 (see China Economics: Property Sector Recovery Is for Real, May 15, 2009). The shallower trough in the economic cycle is then followed by recovery in activity, initially spearheaded by fiscal stimulus (3Q09), and then by a tepid recovery in external demand (4Q09) (see again China Economics: Policy-Driven Decoupling: Upgrade 2009-10 Outlook).

In the aftermath of the Great Recession, if the strength of China's domestic demand in 2009 can be sustained into 2010 and meanwhile the recovery of the rest of the global economy were to remain tepid, it would make China a potential beneficiary of relatively low commodities prices for a relatively long period of time until other major economies - which compete for the same limited amount of supply of commodities - recover. This potentially creates a window of opportunity for China to deliver a Goldilocks scenario.

Sustaining the Goldilocks scenario beyond 2010 would be a tall order, however. Against the backdrop of a potentially stronger recovery in global economy in 2011, the balance between growth and inflation in the Chinese economy will be more difficult to strike. This is a key reason why we tentatively forecast a mix of lower growth and higher inflation for 2011, while noting the tremendous uncertainty at the current juncture.

Alternative Scenarios in a ‘Four Seasons' Framework
The Goldilocks scenario is our base case. The risk to this base case forecasts relates to two types of uncertainties: a) the economic outlook in G3 nations; and b) domestic policy stance. Along the two dimensions of uncertainty, we envisage four potential scenarios in 2010 by adapting the ‘four seasons' framework that we employed before.Autumn features a combination of tepid G3 recovery and normalized policy stance in China that would deliver a ‘Goldilocks' scenario. We assign a 70% subjective probability to this scenario.

Summer features a combination of vigorous G3 recovery and normalized policy stance in China that would result in ‘Overheating'. If the G3 economic recovery in 2010 were to be much stronger than expected, China's export growth and thus industrial capacity utilization, as well as global commodity prices, could both surprise to the upside, likely resulting in higher GDP growth and stronger inflationary pressure if the policy stance were to remain unchanged. We think this is the most likely alternative scenario and assign a 15% subjective probability.

Spring features a combination of vigorous G3 recovery and aggressive tightening that would help achieve a ‘Policy-induced soft landing'. To realize this scenario, the timing and modality of policy tightening would be absolutely the key. However, this tends to be difficult to achieve in China. Administered interest rates and an inflexible exchange rate arrangement mean that the Chinese authorities have few available policy tools that allow for discretionary tightening with engineering precision. We therefore assign only a 5% probability to this scenario.

Winter features a combination of tepid G3 recovery and aggressive tightening in China that would lead to a ‘Policy-induced double dip'. The key headline macroeconomic indicators (e.g., the year-on-year GDP and export growth) may improve rapidly because of the low-base effect in the coming quarters. Policymakers may turn complacent and launch a round of aggressive tightening for fear of economic overheating despite a tepid G3 recovery. This would likely derail a recovery, causing a double-dip in economic growth. We assign a 10% probability to this scenario. On the other hand, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has decided to start publishing quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate data in 2010. If the official data release were to show a relatively low quarter-on-quarter growth rate despite a relatively high year-on-year growth rate in 1Q10, it would help guide the policy debate and therefore lower the risk of potential premature policy tightening, in our view.

A Post-Crisis Reflection on the Chinese Economy
It would be imprudent to call for a cyclical Goldilocks scenario in an economy built on a growth model that is structurally flawed. The typical concerns about the sustainability of China's economic growth are based on several key structural imbalances in the economy, including over-investment, under-consumption and large and persistent current account balances. Some China observers even predict that if these structural imbalances were left unaddressed, the Chinese economy would eventually implode.

However, in a post-crisis reflection on China's economy, we conclude that the popular concerns about such structural issues as ‘over-investment' and ‘under-consumption' in China are overdone and that the growth model is still generally sound.
First, with ‘over-investment' the current buzzword in the policy debate, much attention has been paid to the high investment-GDP ratio. However, we believe that a more important phenomenon in this regard is the high national savings rate in China. To the extent that the high investment ratio is a function of the high national savings ratio in China, discussing over-investment without discussing the high saving ratio loses sight of the big picture, in our view.

Second, China's high national savings rate is a generational phenomenon. It is primarily a function of such secular forces as Chinese demographics, largely shaped by China's ‘one-child' policy and slow adjustment in households' spending habits against the backdrop of rapid economic growth. The ‘one-child' policy artificially compresses the demographic evaluation in a window of some 30-40 years and lowers the dependence ratio sharply in a much shorter period of time in China than in other countries where aging is a natural, multi-decade process. The low dependence ratio substantially raises the saving ratio. While households' income increases rapidly in line with overall economic growth, personal consumption habits may take years and even decades to change. This results in a high savings ratio, which is often attributed to ‘cultural factors'. While other structural factors such as lack of social security and policy at SOEs may have also contributed to the high saving ratio in China, we view their impact as either marginal or an indirect reflection of the abovementioned secular forces (see China Economics: The Virtues of ‘Over-Savings': A Post-Crisis Reflection on Chinese Economy, September 27, 2009).

Third, a popular argument of ‘over-investment' in China is the high growth rate of fixed-asset investment. However, the rapid investment growth is driven primarily by infrastructure investment rather than investment in manufacturing sectors that suffer from overcapacity. Infrastructure investment actually lagged other types of investment by a wide margin in the past few years. Moreover, the investment projects mainly involve railways, intra-city subways, rural infrastructure, low-income housing and post-earthquake reconstruction, which are quite different from the infrastructure projects that were carried out in the context of the Asian Financial Crisis a decade ago.

Both rounds of infrastructure investment boom helped boost domestic demand in the face of negative external shocks in the short run. However, their medium-term implications are quite different: while investment in the immediate aftermath of the Asian Financial Crisis laid the foundation for a subsequent takeoff in China's manufacturing sector and hence exports, the current investment boom should facilitate urbanization and help to lay the groundwork for a potential consumption boom in the years to come, in our view (see again China Economics: The Virtues of ‘Over-Savings': A Post-Crisis Reflection on Chinese Economy).

Fourth, much of the concern about over-investment is based on the notion that investment is derived demand (e.g., investment to build a factory that produces widgets) instead of final demand (e.g., consumer demand for the widgets). When final demand like private consumption or exports is weak, it will eventually translate into weak investment demand. However, the line between derived demand and final demand is blurred when it comes to such urbanization-related infrastructure investment as intra-city subways, rural infrastructure and low-income housing. For a rapidly growing, low-income country like China, the nature of these investments is final demand, as faster and more convenient travel is as desirable now as more food and clothing, in our view.

Fifth, we argue that a more meaningful cross-country comparison in this regard should be about the capital-labor ratio in the economy. On this score, China's capital-labor ratio, or the capital stock per capita, is, not surprisingly, way below that in more advanced emerging market economies (e.g., Korea, Taiwan), let alone the industrialized economies (e.g., US, Japan), suggesting much upside for investment expansion. A key question in this underestimation of service consumption in China is the consumption of housing, in our view. Based on official statistics, we estimate that consumption of housing accounts for only about 3-4% of personal consumption in China. This seems to us too low to be even close to the reality. As a comparison, consumption of housing represents about 16% of personal consumption expenditure in the US and 6.6% in India. We think that an important reason for the seemingly low housing consumption in China is that the imputed rent of owner-occupied housing is not appropriately accounted for. In other words, the statistical methods used in the US and China to estimate the consumption of housing are quite different. The fact is that the house ownership ratio in China is over 80%.

Another important source of underestimation of service consumption in China is personal spending on healthcare, in our view. While the share of spending on healthcare in the US is 15-16% of total PCE, this share in China is only about 6%. However, there is no shortage of anecdotal evidence suggesting that there are substantial gray and black markets in health spending in China - which are not captured by official statistics.

Actually, the underestimation of the importance of the service sector was more serious before the substantial upward revision of GDP in 2005 following completion of the first nationwide economic census. In the 2005 GDP revision, China's 2004 GDP level was revised up by 16.8%; 93% of the increase stemmed from a substantial upward revision in the service sector, such that its share was lifted from about 32% to 41%. In explaining the revision, the NBS noted that China had long been using the Material Product System (MPS), which was developed under the centrally planned economic system in its national accounts statistics until the 1980s, resulting in ‘very weak' statistics for the service sector.

The second nationwide economic census has reportedly been completed this year and the key results will likely start to be released next year. The potential revision of the historical national account data will likely result in another significant upward revision of the share of the services sector in GDP, in our view. Incidentally, the first nationwide economic census was completed in 2004 and the revised national data (e.g., GDP) were released in December 2005. With the benefit of hindsight, there appears to have been a re-rating in the H-share stock market, as investors realized that the structural imbalances in the economy were less serious than indicated by the pre-revision data.

Market Implications
Goldilocks cyclical conditions, together with structural soundness, should be positive for risk assets, in our view. Morgan Stanley's Asia/GEMs strategist, Jonathan Garner, gives China the biggest country Overweight (see Asia/GEMs Strategy: 2010 GEMs Outlook: Headwinds Building but Further Upside Likely, November 9, 2009). Moreover, Morgan Stanley's China equity strategist, Jerry Lou, is also bullish, citing potential further upward re-rating from the current fair levels as earnings accelerate (see China Strategy: 2010 Outlook: Equities in Transitional Goldilocks, November 11, 2009).

Challenges in the Long Run
Notwithstanding our generally positive outlook for the Chinese economy in the near term, we are also mindful of various challenges facing the Chinese economy over the long run. We believe that China's economy has and will likely continue to experience high growth and relatively low inflation with a cushion against external real or financial shocks, as long as the high savings ratio persists (see again China Economics: The Virtues of ‘Over-Savings': A Post-Crisis Reflection on Chinese Economy). We do not subscribe to the notion that there are serious structural imbalances in China's economy.

However, the ‘over-savings' is not a permanent phenomenon but a function of China's demographics. Population aging in China will likely kick off around 2020, according to projections made by the United Nations. The key challenge facing the Chinese economy is how to seize the window of opportunity of ‘over-savings' to create quality wealth for the nation, in our view. The priority for China's economic development is not about rebalancing the economy but rather improving the quality of investment, or wealth creation, in our view.

To this end, China must get the structure of pricing and other incentives right by:
a) Deregulating the prices of energy and natural resources;
b) Deregulating interest rates;
c) Allowing unfettered adjustment of the real effective exchange rate (either through more flexible nominal exchange rate or domestic inflation, or a combination of both);
d) Deregulating the land market;
e) Deregulating sectors that are still subject to state monopoly (e.g., services); and
f) Encouraging private capital outflows.

Asia Pacific
Domestic Demand - Cyclical Story Intact
By Chetan Ahya | Singapore & Sumeet Kariwala | India
Asia maintains its lead in global recovery cycle: Unlike the previous two cycles, Asia has had a distinct lead in the current global recovery. AxJ industrial production grew 9.5%Y as of September 2009, compared with declines of 12.4% in the EU and 6.1% in the US. Indeed, production levels in AxJ are already well above the peak levels seen in February 2008, whereas EU and US production levels are 16% and 12% below peak, respectively, as of September 2009. Moreover, unlike in previous cycles, the key factor driving recovery is domestic demand - particularly household consumption spending on discretionary items and residential property, and government spending on infrastructure and handouts.

However, we believe the heavy lifting remains to be done, and efforts toward more sustainable long-term domestic demand reflation are far from desirable levels. While we can argue that regional policymakers should respond to the challenge of rebalancing by initiating structural reforms to boost domestic demand on a sustainable basis, doing the right thing is not easy. As the external demand shock crushed growth, policymakers are undoubtedly taking small steps in the right direction. Yet, in our view, the approach toward domestic demand reflation remains piecemeal and, in reality, comprises more short-term stop-gap measures to fill the vacuum created by the collapse in exports rather than being structural.

Loose monetary and fiscal policy have been at the heart of this cyclical boost to domestic demand: AxJ central banks have cut policy rates to unusually low levels. As a result, short-term interest rates have been brought down to just 2.5% from 5.5% in July 2008. We expect the fiscal deficit in the region to expand to 4.0% and 3.5% of GDP in 2009 and 2010, respectively, from a surplus of 0.1% of GDP in 2007. This sharp cut in policy rates and major expansion in the fiscal deficit have played a key role in the revival of the growth trend. Unlike in the previous cycle, the banking system was in a much stronger position this time to ensure quick transmission in the form of improved credit conditions. Government spending also produced more bang for the buck. In previous cycles, the government deficit was also used to bail out the financial sector.

While external demand is improving, recovery to peak levels is some time away: Even after the sharp improvement in the past two months, October exports (adjusted for seasonal factors) are still 19% lower than peak in value terms. In volume terms, the export trend is better, but still 5% lower YoY for AxJ (excluding India and Indonesia) as of September 2009. This gap between value and volume reflects lower commodity prices and inflation. Exports from most countries in the region are 9-15% lower than the peak in volume terms (the exception is Korea, which has outperformed the region, recovering to peak levels). Considering that the region's exporters would have been geared up for about 10-15% growth pre-crisis, capacity utilization in export businesses is still likely to be low. We believe that policymakers will look for revival in external demand and/or sustainability of domestic demand before initiating steps toward meaningful tightening.

Time to reverse extremely accommodative policy? We believe that concerns about inflation remain low. AxJ headline inflation increased to 2.5% in October 2009 from 1.5% in July 2009, mainly driven by food and energy prices. Indeed, the core inflation index in AxJ (excluding India) remains low at 1.3%Y as of October 2009. However, many central banks in the region, including in Korea, India and China, have reflected their concerns of the risk of excess liquidity fueling asset prices. Moreover, the sharp recovery in industrial production may indicate that the time has come to start withdrawing the extraordinary policy support. However, we believe that policymakers will make a distinction between this policy-driven recovery and an autonomous recovery. In other words, they are likely to move gradually in withdrawing policy support until there are strong signs of an autonomous private sector recovery.

Rate hike cycle to begin from 1Q10: We expect India and Korea to go first. Central banks there are likely to increase policy rates by 25bp each in January 2010. Indeed, we can argue that technically India has already moved ahead of Korea, as the RBI initiated the first step toward ‘exit' by discontinuing in the October monetary policy review several unconventional liquidity support measures that were taken immediately after the unfolding of the credit crisis last year. Both the Indian and Korean central banks have been relatively hawkish in the past, and both countries have witnessed a surprise in growth data recently. India has surprised on domestic demand, with almost a vertical rise in IP in the last four months, while Korea's exports in volume terms have grown 8%Y. The rest of the region, meanwhile, saw a decline of 5%Y as of September 2009.

How do we read these potential rate hikes? We see them as a trend towards normalization. The short-term real interest rate on core inflation is very low at an average of 1.2% even as industrial production has accelerated to 9.5%Y as of September 2009. We expect the weighted average policy rate in the region to rise to 5.8% by end-December 2011, compared with 4.6% as of end-December 2009, as core inflation is still very low, with capacity utilization not at levels that are likely to exert pressure. Moreover, as the recovery has been largely driven by a strong policy response, central banks will be conscious of this fact in their pace and timing of tightening.

Risks to our base case: The two key factors to watch in the context of growth and interest rate outlook are the trends in exports and commodity prices. A rise in exports would give comfort that autonomous demand is recovering and encourage policymakers to quicken the pace of tightening. In this context, we tend to watch closely the US ISM New Orders Index (a leading indicator). Similarly, we would also watch commodity prices. AxJ remains a big importer of commodities. Oil prices also tend to influence food prices, and food is a big part of the consumption basket, weighing on inflation expectations.

India
Growth Recovery Gathering Pace
By Chetan Ahya | Singapore & Tanvee Gupta | India
The aggressive global policy response to the 2008-09 economic recession has triggered a meaningful recovery almost synchronously around the world. India is no exception. Various economic indicators have been surprising on the upside, confirming that the economy is on a solid recovery path. Indeed, industrial production (IP) growth accelerated to 10.3%Y during the three months ended October 2009 compared with the trough of 0.3%Y in the three months ended February 2009. The key stimulus for this rebound is the lagged impact of an expansionary fiscal policy and loose monetary policy. However, over the next 12 months, we expect export growth to recover with the private sector assuming the lead, enhancing the growth quality mix. We expect a pick-up in GDP growth to 8% in 2010 from 6% in 2009, to be underpinned by faster private consumption and infrastructure spending growth. A favorable base effect for agriculture will also help. Business investment is likely to remain slow in 1H10 with a modest recovery in 2H10. In 2011, we expect strong GDP growth of 7.6% to be driven primarily by domestic demand but also by a revival in business investment.

V-Shaped Recovery in Industrial Production
Industrial production growth has turned around, accelerating 10.3%Y in October 2009 after touching the bottom of -0.2%Y in December 2008. The seasonally adjusted industrial production index in September increased by 7.4% over May 2009. Unless there is a meaningful decline month-on-month - we think this is unlikely - IP growth should remain strong for the rest of the financial year. Various other economic indicators are also rebounding sharply from lows touched in the quarter-ended December 2008. Growth in passenger car sales picked up during the three months ended November 2009 to average 32.4%Y compared with the bottom of 1.2%Y during the three months ended January 2009. Two-wheeler sales growth also recovered, to an average 38.4%Y during the three months ended November 2009, after easing to a low of 9.9%Y in the quarter ended December 2008. Growth in cement dispatches revived to 10.2%Y in the three months ended October 2009 from the bottom of 5.8%Y in the three months ended October 2008.

2009 - Better Policy Traction and Revival in Risk Appetite
We believe that much of the rebound in IP growth is due to stronger domestic demand while exports remain weak. Faster growth is being driven mainly by the lagged effect of an expansionary fiscal policy and relaxed monetary policy. The traction from the government's policy measures has been better than expected. Moreover, a swift return of the global appetite for risk has allowed India's corporate sector to access risk capital from international capital markets more easily than expected. This has helped corporates repair their balance sheets faster and reduced the risk of a vicious circle of large non-performing loans in the banking system that could have led to increased risk-aversion and slower growth. We estimate that capital inflows into India increased to about US$10 billion (annualized rate of US$40 billion) during the quarter ended September 2009 (QE-Sept 09) compared with an inflow of US$6.7 billion in the QE-Jun 09 and outflow of US$5.3 billion in the QE-Mar 09.

2010 - Shift in Driver from Policy to Private Initiatives
We expect the recovery in GDP growth to be sustained, accelerating to 8% in 2010 from 6% in 2009, even as policymakers gradually start withdrawing monetary and fiscal policy support. Global growth is vital for the recovery. India's growth trend remains highly influenced by capital inflows, and improving global growth should mean more such capital for India, as well as bolstering external demand. We believe that the moderation in government consumption spending will be offset by a significant recovery in external demand and modest pick-up in the investment cycle.

2011 - Growth of 7%-Plus Looks Sustainable
While we estimate that India's headline GDP growth will slip slightly to 7.6% in 2011 because of the normalization of agriculture growth, we expect non-agriculture GDP growth to remain strong at 8.5% compared with 8.8% in 2010. Domestic demand is likely to remain the primary growth driver, but capex, together with private consumption and infrastructure spending, should also underpin growth. We estimate that real gross fixed investment growth will rebound to 8.6%Y in 2011 from 6.4%Y for 2009. While we expect a sharp reversal in monetary policy support in 2010, the fiscal consolidation trend should be maintained through to 2011.

Normalization of Interest Rates Underway
The Reserve Bank of India initiated the first step toward the ‘exit' in its quarterly monetary policy review on October 27, 2009, by discontinuing several unconventional liquidity support measures that were taken in response to the unfolding of the credit crisis last year. In addition, it has tightened prudential norms for loans to the commercial real estate sector and stipulated that banks should maintain a loan loss coverage ratio of 70% by September 2010. This is a clear indication from the RBI that monetary policy is beginning to be reversed. We maintain our view that the RBI will lift policy rates by 25bp in January 2010. By that time, the RBI should have adequate confirmation of the pace of recovery. Indeed, we expect a cumulative increase of 150bp in the repo rate in 2010. However, this potential policy rate hike is unlikely to derail the recovery as it represents a move toward normalization rather than a restrictive policy.

Return to 9% GDP Growth Will Remain a Challenge
We think it will be difficult for India to achieve GDP growth of close to 9%, the rate witnessed prior to the global credit crisis (2004-2007). We see three constraints on growth: First, we believe that the global growth environment will be weaker than during 2004-07. Our economics team expects global growth of 4.0% in 2010 and 3.9% in 2011, compared with average growth of 4.8% in 2004-07. Second, the starting point of elevated levels for the government's revenue deficit and public debt implies that some payback will be inevitable in the form of reduced government consumption spending. Third, while we expect infrastructure spending to increase, we believe that it will be lower than the required 9% of GDP.

Upside and Downside Risks to Our Estimates
We believe that India's growth outlook in 2010 and 2011 will be influenced by two key factors. The more important will be the global growth trend, which will be reflected in the global risk appetite and capital inflows, as well as external demand. The other factor is the pace of structural reforms initiated by the government. The influence of these two factors will form the upside and downside risks to our GDP growth estimates for 2010 and 2011 of 8% and 7.6%, respectively. Based on this framework, we see growth for India in our bull case scenario of 9.5% in 2010 and 9% in 2011; in our bear case, we see 6.5% in 2010 and 6% in 2011.

ASEAN
Prefer Domestic Demand Plays in a Slow and Steady World
By Chetan Ahya, Deyi Tan & Shweta Singh | Singapore

We Prefer Domestic Demand Secular Stories to External Demand Cyclical Stories
With global growth likely to stay modest as rebalancing adjustment gets underway, we favor domestic demand secular stories over external demand cyclical stories. Within ASEAN, Indonesia is the least export-oriented economy, with its export share standing at 27% of GDP, followed by Thailand (64%), Malaysia (90%) and Singapore (185%). The low export share in Indonesia should serve as a buffer against lower global growth trends in 2010-11 compared with 2004-07. In addition, on the domestic front, a confluence of growth-conducive factors such as demographic dividend/natural resources, a structural decline in the cost of capital and a strengthened political mandate should also help to push Indonesia towards its potential growth of 6-7% from 2011.

At the other extreme, Singapore remains the most exposed to the global cycle with its high export orientation. This exposure is further aggravated by policymakers seeming to have added more beta into the macro portfolio with the inclusion of highly cyclical industries such as financials and tourism. Moreover, the growth strategy of catering to global demand means that domestic demand has become less domestic in nature and is inevitably a function of the former.

We Prefer Net Commodity Exporters to Net Commodity Importers
In our view, near-term inflation could remain subdued. However, unlike in the last cycle, inflation pressures could come back sooner over the medium term as the one-off structural factors underpinning the ‘Goldilocks' nature of 2004-07, such as the entrance of huge excess capacity into the trading system (e.g., China), are no longer present. On near-term inflation, while core inflation is likely to remain relatively low, given the buffer from excess slack, headline inflation could see a step-up from a reversal in base effects from commodity prices amid the tight supply-side dynamics.

Based on the latest oil futures, oil prices could be expected to average US$84/bbl and US$87/bbl in 2010 and 2011, up from US$64/bbl in 2009. In this regard, we would prefer net commodity exporters over net commodity importers as a ‘hedge'. Malaysia and Indonesia are the top two net commodity exporters within Asia. Singapore and to a lesser extent Thailand are net commodity importers. Coincidently, net commodity exporters in ASEAN also tend to have a retail fuel subsidy system. Ceteris paribus, not only will there be a net transfer of commodity dollars from elsewhere to these economies, but the internal transfer of income from consumers to producers will also be mitigated, allowing the positive spillover from the commodity prices to be more widespread.

We Prefer Economies Where Policymakers Implement Aggressive Policies Could Offer More Domestic Demand Alpha

In ASEAN, we think 2010-11 will entail a phasing out of policy stimulus at a gradual pace. However, in the case of Thailand, the flow of events and the implementation timing of the second stimulus package mean that fiscal policy (including extra budgetary spending) is likely to get more expansionary in 2010 (versus 2009) while others are winding down their fiscal policies. Thailand is running an aggressive policy response because macro conditions have been dampened by the political climate. However, we think that the size of the stimulus package, the improvement in government execution, and the potential crowding-in from the private sector as improved execution is perceived as a pick-up in political conditions will mean that the policy response could offer the most alpha to domestic demand for Thailand. Separately, we prefer Malaysia and Singapore over Indonesia in this aspect. Malaysia is typically more fiscally accommodative, while Singapore has the strongest government balance sheet in ASEAN.

What's the Pecking Order?
Taking the above into consideration, we like Indonesia the most. Our rankings for Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore fall within a tight range. We see Thailand and Malaysia as offering similar growth prospects. However, we rank Thailand ahead of Malaysia because of the positive expectation gap (relative to the market's perception) that we expect on fiscal implementation. Lastly, we think that Singapore would find it hardest to extract growth in the global environment that we envisage.

What Are the Key Risks?
The risks around our global growth forecasts are evenly balanced. Similarly, the risks are also somewhat evenly balanced around our base case of 0%Y for 2009, +4.8%Y for 2010 and +5.4%Y for 2011 for ASEAN4 GDP. We remain comfortable with Indonesia being our top preference in our bull, base and bear case scenarios. On the other hand, while we are comfortable with our baseline, Singapore is where we run the highest possibility of being wrong, in terms of both growth revisions and ranking preference, due to its high-beta nature.

We think that the global rebalancing process needs time to bear fruit, which will have implications on the sustainability of a V-shaped trajectory beyond inventory adjustments. However, if we are wrong and upside risks do pan out, Singapore will benefit most, given its high-beta nature. Our preference rankings in this scenario would be Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia then Thailand. Having said that, our global colleagues also note that even this blow-out scenario could be a short-lived growth spurt. Surging global growth could push up inflation and cause aggressive policy tightening in 2011. This could well push the global economy back into a more conventional, policy-induced recession in about two years' time. On the other hand, with the recent global recession having purged much of the imbalances, our global colleagues highlight that the main downside risk is now a premature policy reversal with macro fundamentals failing to grab the growth baton when that happens. In this scenario, our preference rankings would stay the same as in our base case.