0945 GMT [Dow Jones] Indonesia shares end +0.7% at 2720.862 in moderate volume, helped by steady IDR, gains on Wall Street. Index off intraday high of 2745.942; "Profit taking by most local funds, however, reduced gains (of the main index)," says trader at First Asia Capital; expects shares to consolidate tomorrow; tips index at 2700-2750 range. Bank Mandiri (BMRI.JK) up 3.0% at IDR5,150 after reporting strong 2009 earnings, BCA (BBCA.JK) up 2.8% at IDR5,600 ahead of expected strong 2009 earnings to be announced tomorrow, while car maker Astra (ASII.JK) up 1.5% at IDR40,800 ahead of its plan to give IDR830 dividend per share. Profit taking hits cigarette maker Gudang Garam (GGRM.JK), down 1.1% at IDR26,700. (edhi.pranasidhi@dowjones.com) .
0917 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/IDR remains steady at 9,125 in late session, with most deals done between 9,115-9,125 earlier in day, dealers say. "The market lacked fresh direction," dealer says; adds government bond auction seems to attract little foreign fund inflows despite auction drawing IDR17.91 trillion total bids, indicating most bidders were local institutional investors. 9,110-9,140 tipped for Wednesday, with more upside potential on expected month-end demand from importers.(i-made.sentana@dowjones.com)
0953 GMT [Dow Jones] The risk in EUR/USD is towards the 1.3433 recent low, says Commerzbank analyst Karen Jones. This, together with the long-term Fibonacci support at 1.3405, remain key props as well as key breakdown levels. Says below 1.34 signals the next leg lower is underway, with targets of 1.3030 and 1.2930. Topside, resistance comes in at 1.3550 and 1.3640. EUR/USD now at 1.3525. (gary.stride@dowjones.com)
0915 GMT [Dow Jones] Fading hopes that the euro zone will come up with a rescue package for Greece this week have left the EUR sinking and the USD rising but with both remaining within recent trading ranges. Sentiment wasn't helped by dovish comments from Fed officials overnight and the prospect of more soft existing home sales out of the US. Expectations of last-minute Japanese repatriation is helping the JPY while the GBP is down as the market waits for the latest UK budget Wednesday. The USD is up at Y90.28 while the EUR is down at $1.3523. The GBP is down at $1.5039.
0935 GMT [Dow Jones] Sterling slips after UK inflation comes in at 0.4% from 0.6% expected in February with the year on year number also 0.2% under forecast at 3.0%. GBP/USD slips from 1.5030 to the day's low of 1.5003 but now trades at 1.5015, EUR/GBP is 10 ticks higher at 0.9012. (gary.stride@dowjones.com)
0414 GMT [Dow Jones] Danamon still sees room for Indonesian government's long-end bond yields (15 years and above), particularly 20-year, to fall. "At currently 10.35%, the 20-year still trades at wide spreads over the 5-year and 10-year. A yield decline of 25 - 50bps towards 10.00% or slightly below, appears like a reasonable scenario," says house; adds risk to forecast is potential abundant new supply of government bonds, which could prevent rally in long-end bonds; meanwhile sees room for 10-year yield decline limited. (I-Made.Sentana@dowjones.com)
0423 GMT [Dow Jones] Nikkei down 0.4% at 10,781.14, down from midday close of 10,797.51, as profit-taking continues as Nikkei still technically overheated, trading 3.4% above its 25-day moving average, says Japanese brokerage manager. But adds selling slowed when Nikkei reaches 5-day moving average of 10,783; although stronger yen (USD/JPY now 90.27) hurting mood, some stocks rising on individual news catalysts, such as Toshiba (6502.TO), +4.2% at Y469 on hopes for JV with Bill Gates to develop next-generation nuclear reactor. Sony (6758.TO) also up 3.1% at Y3,630 on hopes for its 3D TV businesses/gaming and navigation partnership with Google (GOOG). For the rest of this month, "investors are unlikely to hold large positions before closing their books," thus trading volume expected to stay thin, he says. Topix now also in negative territory (down 0.01%), after ending morning session slightly above break-even; 22/33 subindexes in negative territory, with real estate sharply weaker (down 2.4%) for 3rd straight session (down 6.1% over span). (ayai.tomisawa@dowjones.com)
0437 GMT [Dow Jones] HSI +1.0% at 21,149.39 midday, rebounding as yesterday's selloff in knee-jerk reaction India rate hike appears overdone. Still, volume tepid at HK$27.97 billion, 10-day moving average at 21,200 immediate cap. Celestial Securities believes it may be time for bargain hunting, especially on property stocks, as believes China, U.S. interest rates "will continue to stay low for extended period." Li & Fung (0494.HK) best-performing blue chip, +3.7% at HK$41.65 ahead of FY09 results tomorrow, followed by another export play Esprit (0330.HK) +3.2% at HK$60.65. Mainland developers remain laggards as sector tightening concerns linger; China Overseas Land (0688.HK) down 0.9% at HK$16.18, China Resources Land (1109.HK) down 1.2% at HK$16.22. (robert.li@dowjones.com)
0433 GMT [Dow Jones] Kospi +0.5% at 1680.99 with gains in techs as foreigners resume buying in market, but off day's high of 1689.46 on profit-taking by local retail investors, funds. "Offshore investors' stock and futures buying resumed, supporting the market. But the Kospi seems to be feeling fatigued along with global peers after recent rapid gains, so it is expected to undergo mild correction" for while, says Lee Kyoung-min at Woori Investment & Securities; tips 1670 as immediate floor, then 1650, but suggests to buy on dip as Kospi's uptrend remain intact. LG Display (034220.SE) +4.2% at KRW39,500, Samsung Electronics (005930.SE) +0.6% at KRW806,000. Most banks remain up; KB Financial (105560.SE) +1.0% at KRW52,500. Kia Motors (000270.SE) still down 0.8% at KRW24,350. Kumho Tire (073240.SE) down 14.7% at KRW3,115 on capital erosion news. (soo-kyung.seo@dowjones.com)
0414 GMT [Dow Jones] China shares turn lower midday; financial stocks, property developers weak on expectations companies may announce lower dividends (at upcoming earnings reports) as they look to build cash reserves amid monetary tightening environment. Shanghai Composite Index down 0.3% at 3066.68 vs 3082.97 early high; immediate support at 3050. "The monetary tightening theme still holds, and banks would have to keep more of their profits in reserves, rather than reward investors," says Zhang Gang from Southwest Securities. Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000.SH) off 0.4% at CNY22.12, Huatai Securities Co. (601688.SH) off 0.3% at CNY21.81, China Merchants Property Development Co.(000024.SZ) off 1.3% at CNY23.90. Shenzhen Composite Index down 0.3% at 1183.14. (esther.fung@dowjones.com)
0439 GMT [Dow Jones] Singapore stocks hold gains from early rise fuelled by Wall Street's advance, sending STI back above 2900 after index closed below that level yesterday for first time in four sessions. Benchmark +0.6% at 2905.87 midday; expected to meet resistance at 2-month high of 2932 set last week. Market breadth at just under two gainers for every decliner, with volume light at 671.6 million shares, driven mainly by small-cap stocks. "The market's undertone still looks quite good, although there's not much liquidity," says dealer at foreign brokerage. Tech stocks among better performers on rotational interest. FTSE ST Technology Index +1.6%. Notable gainers in sector include Armstrong Industrial (A14.SG) +6.2% at S$0.345, Broadway Industrial (B69.SG) +4.5% at S$0.925, Cheung Woh Technologies (C50.SG) +3.0% at S$0.34, Innotek (M14.SG) +3.0% at S$0.515, Meiban Group (M24.SG) +3.2% at S$0.32. (frankie.ho@dowjones.com)
0424 GMT [Dow Jones] Macquarie more optimistic on energy sector, lifts 2010 West Texas Intermediate crude forecast 18% to US$86.50/bbl from US$73.00, hikes 2011 forecast 13% to US$90.00 from US$80.00 and forecasts 2013 average price of US$109.00. Says recent data shows oil demand growing faster in more places than expected with supply responses late. Points to global oil demand growth of 1.2% in 4Q09, with rapid economic growth in traditional developing countries like China resulting in V-shaped crude demand recovery for non-OECD countries, that should support growth in developed world. Expects 2010 global demand growth of 2.4%, which it says is materially above consensus, much more bullish than OPEC. Raises Woodside (WPL.AU), Santos (STO.AU) price targets 6% and 3% to A$53/share and A$18/share, respectively. (Ross.Kelly@dowjones.com)
0427 GMT [Dow Jones] Risk to USD from Fed officials' speeches this week is "on balance, to the downside," as still high unemployment means Fed "may not be in the position for any quicker exit from its loose monetary policies," says Hideki Amikura, senior FX dealer at Nomura Trust and Banking. Before San Francisco Fed President Yellen speaks later in global day, says "the risk is that you'd have dovish members like Yellen making statements that could weigh on the dollar." But adds, while that could buoy EUR/USD, lingering concern that Greece's fiscal woes won't be resolved at meeting of European leaders later in week may cap pair at 1.3600 vs last 1.3558. (andrew.monahan@dowjones.com)
0415 GMT [Dow Jones] JPMorgan moves further out on Indonesian bond curve, now long 20-year vs 10-year paper; says emerging markets about to tighten, investors look for carry in long-end rather than short-end. Says yield on 20-year paper at 10.30%, 130 bps above 10-year; expects yield on 20-year to rise by another 50 bps. Overall in Asia, house recommends flatteners only, as China may soon hike rates, following India's unexpected hike Friday; house holds on to 2 year-to-5-year MYR IRS curve flattener, spread now at 65 bps, targets 60 bps. (aries.poon@dowjones.com)
0248 GMT [Dow Jones] NZD/USD range trading after dipping, recovering overnight; "It was risk-off on Greece, then risk-on with U.S. healthcare reforms, bringing it back to exactly where it was," says Westpac market strategist Imre Speizer. Pair last 0.7064 vs 0.7057 late yesterday. Says might be more action later in week given NZ current account data tomorrow, GDP Thursday. Market tipped to also continue to focus on Greece's fiscal problems; "It'll be on and off, it will be backwards and forwards," says Speizer. Says Kiwi has firm support at 0.7000, resistance around 0.7160. But, "it is not looking like anything is going to make it go higher unless we get good local data." (rebecca.howard@dowjones.com)
0229 GMT [Dow Jones] 1-month ATM USD/JPY implied volatilities rise to 9.80%/10.35% vs 9.70%/10.40% in NY overnight, as market participants buying options for position adjustment at start of week. "Players who sold hedges excessively late last week (before the long weekend) are buying back" and these aren't directional bets that indicate market sentiment, says Tokyo options dealer. As view grows that spot likely to stay in narrow band amid lack of fresh trading cues, one market participant sold 6-day EUR/JPY ATM straddles with relatively small face amount. (miho.nakauchi@dowjones.com)
Aussie ‘Rejected,’ May Fall to 2-Week Low: Technical Analysis \
(Bloomberg) -- Australia’s dollar may fall to a two-week low after retreating from so-called resistance at 92.52 U.S. cents, according to Forecast Pte, citing trading patterns.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aZuhYATpSu.g
Euro May Fall Past Record to 1.40 Francs: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The euro may drop past the all-time low to 1.40 Swiss francs on the “inability” of the Swiss National Bank to halt its currency’s gain, according to Barclays Plc, citing technical indicators.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aLgDKZJRxHx0
Ten-Year Note a Buy at Apex of ‘Pennant’: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Treasury investors should buy the 10-year note when prices dip in its trading range, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, citing technical indicators.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a0XLJWZxbV4Q
Hong Kong Stocks to Lose to China on Yuan, BNP Says
(Bloomberg) -- Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong will underperform yuan-denominated shares across the border this year as the central government allows the currency to resume its appreciation against the dollar, according to BNP Paribas.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=anNsF_jcxO_c
Gold May Drop to $1,030 as Dollar Favored, GFMS Analytics Says
(Bloomberg) -- Gold may decline to $1,030 an ounce in the next few weeks as sovereign debt problems in Europe prompt investors to favor the dollar as an asset of “first resort,” GFMS Analytics Ltd. said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=afTpZDXhGh0k
Yen Gains Deceptive, Traders Most Bearish in 3 Years
(Bloomberg) -- Japanese households are sending funds overseas at the fastest pace since 2007 in search of higher yields as currency strategists predict the yen will slump 8 percent versus the dollar by the end of the year.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=asRdX21MdIaQ
(Bloomberg) -- Thai stocks may rise 10 percent in the next six months, extending Asia’s biggest rally in March, as an economic rebound and currency gain lure overseas investors, the manager of the nation’s best-performing fund said.
Thai Stocks to Extend Asia’s Biggest Rally, ING Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=alVtfm9A8I6g
U.S. Stocks Outlook Is ‘Quite Positive’ for Legg Mason’s Miller
(Bloomberg) -- Legg Mason Inc.’s Bill Miller said he has a “quite positive” outlook for U.S. stocks and favors technology and financial companies because of their valuations.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aVJpCki8q.pw
Stocks Show Economy Revving as Cyclical Shares Win
(Bloomberg) -- Retailers erased their stock market losses since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and transportation companies doubled in a year, signs the advance in U.S. equities is just getting started.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aAbB1.aZZluA
China’s Stocks Will Extend Drop, Dreyfus’ Simon Says
(Bloomberg) -- China’s stocks will likely extend declines for the next several months as inflation risks increase before rebounding by the third quarter, said Hugh Simon, co- manager of the $1.1 billion Dreyfus Greater China Fund.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aPV79cpZdxAU
China’s Stocks Enter ‘Bullish Triangle,’ Wang Says
(Bloomberg) -- China’s benchmark stock index has developed a “bullish triangle” formation that may send the measure up by as much as 47 percent, according to Wang Tao, president of the Technical Analysts Society (Singapore).
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aW3frOqQjQ_8
Does Euro Reversal Signal 'All Clear' For Commodities?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35989784
This Is Still a Bear-Market Rally: Analyst
Equity markets have switched from fear to outright complacency in the space of one year and are ignoring the warning signs, according to SquawkBox Europe's guest host, Phillippe Gijsels, head of research at BNP Paribas Fortis Global Markets.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35980915
BHP Says Trend to Market-Based Ore Pricing Will Stay
(Bloomberg) -- BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, said the trend toward market-based pricing of iron ore will continue, as it pushes to change the way the commodity is priced.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a_klg5wMqJCE
Speculators’ Bets on Natural Gas Drop Reach a Record, CFTC Says
(Bloomberg) -- Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their net-short positions, or bets that natural gas will fall, to a record, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aXYonG4vXva4
IMF’s Lipsky Says Emerging Asia to Grow 8.5% in 2010
(Bloomberg) -- Emerging Asia is expected to grow at more than twice the pace of the global economy this year, led by China and India, International Monetary Fund official John Lipsky said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aUpE6ZrFPeDk
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