Free Workshop Technical Analysis Stocks & Futures

PT UBI Securities & PT Harumdana Berjangka, Sabtu, 06 Februari 2010
Menara BCA Lt 49. Jakarta Indonesia
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Next week to be release in this blog (globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com): Prospek Saham Indonesia & Investasi Global 2010 (55 Pages): PT Universal Broker Indonesia Securities (TF) & PT Harumdana Berjangka.

Track Record Saham IHSG PT Universal Broker Indonesia Securities (TF): Periode 17 Juni 2009 - 05 Feb 2010 = 31 Pekan

Survival dari Minor Crash IHSG -92 poin (-3.6%; 2.518,976) Pekan ini; Return UBI Top 30 +1.04%.
Top Pick Pekan Depan akan anda dapatkan pada Free Workshop TA Stock & Futures (Sabtu; 06/02; 09.30 WIB).

Track Record (01 – 05 Feb 10) = +1.04%.
Average 123.60% (29 Pekan) + 1.04% (total +31.47% dari 30 Saham Pilihan Pekan ini: 01 - 05 Feb 2010) = Total 124.109% (Profit: 30 Pekan / Loss: 1 Pekan; Profit dalam 13 Pekan terakhir; sebelumnya 13 pekan lalu 18 pekan berturut-turut Positive Return) = Average 4.003%/Week. Outperform IHSG ditutup di 2.518.976 (-91.784 poin = -3.51%) pekan ini & dalam 31 pekan = +24.774% (IHSG Range 768 poin: 1,750-2,518); Average 0.799%/week.

(Closing 04/02; 10 saham): ASRI +17,2%/BCIP +5,4%/DOID +3,8%/BBTN +4,8%/KLBF +1,9%/BMTR +4,0%/COWL + 14.6%/ATPK+2,0%/CFIN 0%/INKP 0% = 53.7%
(Closing 05/02; 20 saham): BUMI -3.3%/BSDE +4.4%/BMRI -3.7%/ADRO 0%/SDRA -5.45%/DEWA -4.8%/BTEL -5.9%/BBRI -2.0%/SMCB +3.1%/TLKM -2.1%/PGAS -0.675%/BKDP +3.1%/HEXA +4.8%/UNTR -2.4%/ANTM 0%/INDF 0%/HMSP +1.14%/BVIC -2.7%/KIJA -2.5%/BWPT -3.3% = 22.23%.
Profit 14 Saham; Neutral 5 saham; Loss 11 Saham.
Total closing 30 saham (04 - 05 Feb) = +53.7% - 22.23% = +31.47% : 30 = +1,049%/saham.

Track Record (23 - 29 Januari 2010):
PGAS +2.7%/BBTN +8.0%/BMTR +4.1%/BUMI +1.0%/BISI -0.6%/CTRA 0%/DOID +4.6%/UNTR +3.0% /DILD -1.1%/BKSL -3.2%/ MPPA 6.0%/KLBF +8.4%/ASII +7.4%/MAPI +4.2%/ELTY 8.1%/BHIT -10%.

Track Record (14 - 22 Januari 2010):
BNBR -6,4%/TLKM -0,53%/BSDE +4,76%/ELTY +2%/UNTR -0,57%/INKP 0%/HMSP +13,8%/CTRP -3,44%/SMCB +4,24%/DOID +12,5%/BUMI -3,60%/SMRA +6,25%/ASRI -2,54%/SDRA -5,7%/TRUB -9,7%/INDY 2,91%/MAPI +4,76%/RALS +8,0%/ASGR +7,5%/BCIP -9.5%.2

Track Record (05 - 12 Januari 2010)
BUMI +17,2%/BBCA +1,9%/BMRI -1,5%/BBRI 0%/SGRO 7,0%/ ASII -0,14%/AALI 5,0%/INKP +19,8%/JSMR +1,6%/INDF +3,33%/HMSP 13,3%/HEXA +19,2%/TLKM -1,04%/CSAP -9.5%/TINS +6,8%/ANTM +2,15%/INCO +1,9%/UNTR +12,5%/PTBA 1,1%/ADRO +12,5%/DOID -2,3%/CTRA +24,5%/BSDE -1,1%/TBLA 5,33%

Track Record ( 28 Des - 30 Des 09) = +3,40%
BUMI +8,6%/PTBA +2,36%/ DOID +13,5%/ASII +1,7%/BRPT +3,8%/SGRO +2,8%
/HEXA +5,0%/ADRO 0% /ITMG +0,6%/BBRI 0%/BMRI +2.3%/INCO +2.0%/ TINS
+5,8%/ ANTM +1,1%/TLKM 0%/ELTY -1,0%/DEWA +9.3%

Track Record (16 Des - 23 Des 09)
BMRI +1.1%/ASII +0.58%/UNVR +0.44%/MNCN -4.6%/BSDE 0%/ANTM -1.1%/INDF +3.78%/GGRM +1.5%/UNTR +0.9%/HEXA -2.4%/PGAS -1.3%/SMGR +4.7%/INTP +3.9%/SMCB -1.3%/LSIP -4.1%/INKP +1.1%/BBTN +3.7%/BUMI 0%/TLKM -2.2%/ADRO -1.7%/ASRI -4.5%/SGRO 0%/BKDP +8.1%/INDY +3.7%/INCO +1.5%/DOID 1.3%/GDST -9.9%.

Track Record (09 Des - 14 Des 09)
BUMI 2.450 +3.9%/BMRI +2.7%/BBRI +1.9%/ASII +2.8%/UNVR +1.35%/TLKM +4.8%/BSDE +10%/JSMR +1.06%/ANTM +2.2%/INDF 0%/GGRM +15.5%/UNTR +10.9%/HEXA +6.8%/INCO 0%/BKSL 0%/PGAS +4.5% /SMGR 3.44%/INTP 4.09%

Track Record (25 Nov - 03 Des 09)
BUMI 2.575 (0%)/PTBA 15.750 (+17.7%)/ADRO 1.710 (+3.5%)/BMRI 4.600 (+1.08%)/ BBRI 7.600 (+5.9%)/ BKSL 101 (-4.9%)/RAJA 215 (-2.3%)/CTRA 550 (-1.8%)/BSDE 820 (+3.65%)/BTEL 155 (+1.29%)/INDF 3.175 (0%)/ BNBR 100 (+1.0%)/ KLBF 1.270 (+0.78%)/BRPT 1.330 (+2.2%)/ELTY 23 0 (+4.3%).

Track Record (19 - 23 November 2009)
BUMI +11.7%/DEWA +3.7%/PGAS +1.9%/DOID -0.6%/ASII +0.9%/MEDC 3.7%/ANTM 4.2%/SMGR 0%/HEXA -0.84%/TRUB +4.8%/BKSL +10.1%/PTBA 6.7%/ENRG +5.2%/BMRI +1.06%/TLKM 1.1%

Track Record Periode 09 Nov - 17 Nov: (24 Posisi)
PTBA 5.4%/DOID 10.0%/BBRI 3.3%/BBCA 0.5%/BMRI 0%/ MEDC 2.8%/PGAS 3.4%/JSMR 2.7%/SMRA 0%/CTRS -5.8%/SGRO 3.0%/ INDF 3.2%/KLBF 2.2%/GGRM 1.7%/SMCB 4.9%/SMGR 0%/ANTM 11.2%/MYOR 14.2%/UNVR 7.8%/ITMG 17.9%/BUMI 12.6%/ENRG 1.7%/ TRUB 9.7%/ASII 3.9%/FREN 3.7%

Track Record Periode 26 Okt - 06 Nov: (29 Posisi):
BBRI +2.7/BMRI 0%/PTBA -0.67%/ADRO 0%/PGAS +0.68%/SDRA 0%/AKRA +6.8%/BSDE +12.6%/SMGR 11.1%/SMRA +13.0%/BUMI +11.36%/ENRG +30%/HEXA 4.4%/MEDC 4.8%/BBCA +2.7%/INCO 0%/PGAS +2.7%/SMCB -1.2%/ASII -1.2%/INDF +2.4%/GGRM +12.2%/TRUB 0%/ANTM 3.2%/INKP -9.5%/BUMI -2.04%/SMCB 2.5%/ENRG 9.2%/ASII -0.6%/INDF 5.08%. Total Profit +122.21% untuk 29 posisi.

Track Record Periode 19 - 23 Okt:
BUMI (3.000) -9.16%, JSMR (1.860) -1.07%, INCO (4.225) +1.18%, PGAS (3.750) 0%, PTBA (14.650) +2.39%, ANTM (2.625) -0.95%, SMGR 6.950 -2.1%, UNTR (16.500) -3.03%, SMCB (1.640) -1.8%, KLBF (1.340) -2.2%/HEXA 3.075 -0.8%, SGRO (2.400) 2.08%,BMRI (4.775) -1.04%, BBRI (7.850) -3.18%, AALI (22.200) -0.45%, TLKM (8.650) +0.57%, UNVR (10.850) -3.38%, ADRO (1.510) +7.94%, BBCA (4.775) 0%, ITMG (24.450) 0% (+Dividen Rp 648).

Track Record Periode 12 - 16 Okt:
BUMI (2900) +4.3%, INDF (3100) +3.2%, JSMR (1800) +3.9%, ASII (33500)-0.6%, ANTM (2600) +1.9%, TLKM (8650) +0.6%, UNVR (11000) 0%, UNTR (15500) +7.7%, SMCB (1550) +7.1%, KLBF (1320) +2.3%, BMRI (4875) +1.03%, BBRI (8050) -0.62%, SMGR (6700) +5.2%, BSDE (640) +12.5%, PGAS (3575) +4.9%, MEDC (3175) 0%, INCO (4150) +2.4%, TINS (2200) +1.1%, SDRA (320) 1.5%.

Track Record Periode 17 Juni - 09 Okt 2009 lainnya bisa dilihat di blog (globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com).
Disclaimer On.

Meningkatnya Sentimen Negatif Picu Risk Averse Untuk Saham & Komoditi

IHSG Outlook
Momentum kenaikan IHSG tidak sekuat perkiraan sebelumnya, berkat spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi global dapat terganggu oleh memburuknya situasi finansial sejumlah negara di Eropa (Portugal, Spanyol, Yunani) yang mengalami kesulitan untuk mendanai defisit anggaran dan lemahnya data penjualan ritel Australia bulan Desember, mendukung langkah bank sentral Australia untuk menahan laju suku bunga kemarin, membebani kinerja indeks saham regional Asia yang berimbas negatif kepada IHSG. Kondisi tersebut memperburuk prospek saham global di pekan mendatang, karena masih dibayangi kekhawatiran pengetatan kredit dari China hingga India, mendorong spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga di bulan mendatang, dapat menurunkan daya tarik untuk saham dan komoditi global. Meski prospek saham domestik masih lebih baik ketimbang saham regional Asia lainnya, berkat solidnya pertumbuhan ekonomi dan emiten domestik di tahun 2009, didukung oleh keputusan BI tetap menahan laju suku bunga 6,5%, cadangan devisa melonjak hingga $ 69,6 miliar di akhir bulan lalu dan antisipasi 2 IPO listing pekan depan (PT.PP & PT.Benakat) dapat menopang kinerja IHSG.

Global Outlook
Meningkatnya sentimen negatif dari benua Eropa dan AS, dapat menghambat momentum indeks saham regional Asia dan Wall Street untuk rebound di akhir pekan ini, setelah investor khawatir terhadap kemampuan sejumlah negara di Eropa (Portugal, Spanyol, Yunani) membiayai defisit anggaran di tahun ini, meski Presiden ECB Trichet setelah memutuskan menahan laju suku bunga di 1,0%, menyatakan yakin Yunani dapat memangkas defisit anggaran, diperburuk oleh kenaikan lebih tinggi dari prediksi pasar dalam data Jobless Claims (480K) di pekan lalu dan laporan dari MasterCard Inc dan Kellog Co yang mengalami penurunan pendapatan, diikuti Boeing Co mendapatkan sentimen negatif dari prediksi Boeing Co dan Airbus terhadap lesunya permintaan dalam 2 tahun mendatang. Kekhawatiran terhadap rating utang AS setelah Moody’s akan meninjau kembali rating AAA milik AS jika tidak ada perubahan dari defisit anggaran, ikut membebani kinerja saham Wall Street di akhir pekan ini. Meski di pekan ini data ISM AS meningkat dari periode sebelumnya, Productivity Q4 AS melonjak 6,2%, Unit Labor Cost merosot ke 4,4% dan 77% emiten di S&P 500 yang telah merilis earning untuk Q4 2009 tercatat melampaui estimasi EPS analis, seharusnya memberikan support kepada indeks saham global, menjelang dtaa tenaga kerja AS dan pertemuan G7.
PT. Universal Broker Indonesia Securities (TF). UBI Newwsletter Vol 380

Laporan Fundamental & Rumor Saham Indonesia 05-02

Harga saham PT Perdana Gapuraprima Tbk (GPRA) dikabarkan bakal diangkat menuju Rp200 dalam jangka pendek maupun menengah.Kabar berhembus adanya mitra strategis asal Prancis yang akan menggandeng perseroan menjadi momentum kenaikan harga saham perseroan. Rencana pengembang properti itu menggelar rights issue juga bakal memicu penguatan harga GPRA.Sementara itu, perdagangan bursa kemarin saham GPRA ditutup naik Rp10 ke Rp138.

Harga saham PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) berpotensi menuju Rp2.700-2.800 dalam jangka pendek maupun menengah.Kabar yang berhembus CIC tertarik dengan rencana perseroan membeli tambang emas di Afrika. Selain itu, perseroan akan merealisasikan akuisisi perusahaan batubara di Kalimantan dalam waktu dekat. Akuisisi ini akan mendongkrak harga saham perseroan.Pada penutupan perdagangan bursa kemarin harga sham ANTM ditutup koreksi Rp50 ke Rp2.050.

Kemerosotan bursa-bursa global langsung berimbas ke lantai bursa Indonesia. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan dan nilai tukar rupiah langsung terpuruk.Pada perdagangan Jumat (5/2/2010), IHSG dibuka langsung merosot 51,996 poin (2,01%) ke level 2.541,224. IHSG terus terpuruk dan dalam 5 menit awal perdagangannya terpangkas 57,738 poin (2,23%) ke level 2.535,482.Sementara nilai tukar rupiah dibuka langsung merosot ke level 9.400 per dolar AS, dibandingkan penutupan kemarin di level 9.335 per dolar AS.Bursa-bursa regional bergerak melemah mengikuti bursa Wall Street tadi malam menyusul kekhawatiran seputar masalah utang Eropa. Indeks Dow Jones bahkan sempat terpuruk di bawah level 10.000.Pada penutupan sesi I perdagangan Jumat, indeks Nikkei-225 tercatat merosot 293,33 poin (2,83% ke level 10.062,65. Indeks Hang Seng juga dibuka anjlok 589,67 poin (2,9%) ke level 19.751,97. Investor masih menanti rilisan data tenaga kerja AS hari ini (Payroll diprediksi +13K, unemployment 10.0%) dan pertemuan G7 besok.

Lanjutkan Penurunan Bunga Kredit
Mengikuti jejak bank sentral di sejumlah negara, BI kembali mempertahankan BI rate di level 6,5% untuk ketujuh kalinya dalam rapat dewan gubernur (RDG), kemarin. Inflasi Januari yang cukup tinggi, sebesar 0,84% (month on month/mom), tidak menggoyahkan bank sentral untuk menaikkan suku bunga.

LABA BERSIH 2009 MELONJAK 690%, PGN Siapkan Dana Akuisisi Rp 3,4 Triliun
PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk (PGAS) menyiapkan dana Rp 3,4 triliun untuk mengakuisisi produsen gas nasional tahun ini. Dana tersebut berasal dari kas internal perusahaan.

Sumalindo Siapkan Rights Issue Rp 123,6 M
PT Sumalindo Lestari Jaya Tbk (SULI) berencana menerbitkan saham baru (rights issue) sebanyak 1,24 miliar unit senilai Rp 123,6 miliar. Perseroan akan meminta persetujuan para pemegang saham dalam rapat umum pemegang saham luar biasa (RUPSLB) pada 9 Maret 2010.

Permintaan Saham IPO PP Berlebih hingga 2,8 Kali
Minat investor terhadap IPO PP cukup tinggi. Total angka permintaan mencapai 2,91 miliar saham atau setara Rp 1,63 triliun.

Capex Rp 300 M, MAPI Buka 2 Gerai Baru
MAPI akan membuka dua gerai department store baru serta menambah gerai Starbucks, Burger King, dan Pizza Marzzano.

Harga Komoditas Angkat Bisnis Alat Berat HEXA
Pada periode April 2009 hingga Maret 2010, HEXA mematok target penjualan alat berat sebanyak 1.400 unit.

Doping Baru Buat Emiten Rokok dan Farmasi
Rivisi aturan mengenai biaya promosi dan penjualan yang bisa dikurangkan dari penghasilan bruto bakal berdampak positif buat rokok dan farmasi.

CIMB: IHSG Hari Ini Berpotensi Koreksi
PT CIMB Securities Indonesia menghitung, IHSG hari ini sepertinya berpotensi terkoreksi kurang lebih 2% atu ke level 2.541 dan mencoba rebound dari level ini.

Menteri BUMN Ikut Road Show IPO Garuda Ke Singapura
Mustafa Abubakar menyukseskan rencana IPO PT Garuda Indonesia Airlines. Hal ini terbukti dengan keikutsertaan menteri dalam road show Garuda di Singapura.

Potensi kenaikan harga komoditas pada tahun ini turut mendorong optimisme perusahaan alat berat. PT Hexindo Adiperkasa Tbk (HEXA), misalnya, dalam periode April 2009 hingga Maret 2010, mematok target penjualan alat berat 1.400 unit. Setahun berikutnya, yakni di akhir Maret 2011, HEXA memproyeksikan, penjualan alat berat naik 15%-20% dari Maret 2010. Catatan saja, HEXA memang memakai tahun buku April-Maret.

Economic: Investasi Langsung US$34 M dalam 5 Tahun
Pemerintah menargetkan realisasi nilai penanaman modal langsung pada 5 tahun mendatang dapat menembus US$34,4 M dengan berbagai strategi yang diharapkan dapat meningkatkan daya tarik investasi. Total investasi langsung akan berasal dari penanaman modal asing (PMA) hingga US$26,1 M dan penanaman modal dalam negeri (PMDN) Rp78 T (setara US$8,2 M). Buku Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Menengah Nasional (RPJMN) 2010-2014 menyebutkan nilai investasi itu diproyeksikan dapat tercapai pada 2014.

Economic: Kepercayaan Konsumen Turun
Indeks kepercayaan konsumen (IKK) pada Januari 2010 kembali melemah 2,6% menjadi 86,8 setelah meningkat pada dua survei sebelumnya. Hal itu terungkap dalam hasil survei Danareksa Reseacrh Institute atas IKK pada Januari 2010. Kepala Ekonom Danareksa Research Institute mengatakan penurunan indeks tersebut merupakan level terendah dalam 9 bulan terakhir.

Economic: BI Rate Tetap 6,5%
Sesuai prediksi, BI kembali mempertahankan suku bunga acuan (BI Rate) di level 6,5%. Ini merupakan kali keenam Rapat Dewan Gubernur (RDG) BI menahan BI Rate. Level tersebut dinilai masih aman untuk menjaga target inflasi tahun 2010 di level 5% plus minus 1% serta kondusif bagi upaya pemulihan ekonomi.

Economic: 62 AB Akan Diaudit BEI Mulai 8 Februari
Bursa Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) siap mengaudit 62 Anggota Bursa (AB) yang masuk dalam daftar transaksi marjin mulai 8 Februari hingga akhir April 2010. Direktur Perdagangan dan Peraturan Anggota Bursa Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) Wan Wei Yiong menyatakan dalam peraturan V.D.6 dinyatakan AB yang masuk daftar transksi marjin wajib diaudit oleh BEI dalam periode satu tahun. Audit mulai dijalankan pada 8 Februari hingga Akhir April 2010. Laporan hasil audit diharapkan dapat tuntas dan tersusun rapi pada Juni 2010.

Banking: Aset Perbankan Tembus 2,5 Kuadriliun
Aset industri perbankan pada akhir tahun lalu mencapai Rp2,5 kuadriliun atau bertambah Rp224 dari akhir 2008. Bila dibandingkan dengan posisi akhir 2000 aset ini tumbuh lebih dari dua kali lipat. Berdasarkan data BI, dalam 9 tahun terakhir rata-rata aset bank tumbuh 6,6% atau sekitar Rp167,1 T per tahun. Pada 2000 nilai aset baru mencapai Rp1.030,5 T. Adapun dana pihak ketiga (DPK) hingga akhir 2009 tercatat sebesar Rp1.973 T atau naik 12,5% (Rp220 T) jika dibandingkan dengan periode sebelumnya sebesar Rp1.753 T.

MEDC: Medco Siap Refinancing Obligasi US$ 88,20 Juta
PT Medco Energi International Tbk (MEDC) siap refinancing obligasi senilai US$ 88,20 juta yang jatuh tempo pada 22 Mei 2010. Perseroan meraih dana US$ 50 juta dari penerbitan MTN pada 2 Februari 2010 untuk melunasi obligasi dolar tersebut.

ELTY: 2010, Bakrieland Incar Pertumbuhan 30%
ELTY memproyeksikan pertumbuhan sekitar 20-30% pada 2010. Direktur Utama dan Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Bakrieland Development Hiramsyah S Thaib menyatakan kontribusi dari jalan tol sekitar Rp 150-200 miliar. Potensi pertumbuhan hingga 30% tersebut untuk pendapatan maupun laba.

TRUB: Truba Raih Kontrak US$ 98,88 Juta
PT Truba Jaya Engineering, anak usaha PT Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering Tbk memenangkan kontrak jasa konstruksi yang diadakan oleh PT Chevron Pacific senilai US$ 98,88 juta. Hingga September 2009, perseroan telah mengantongi pendapatan sebesar Rp 2,07 triliun, tetap dibandingkan dengan periode yang sama 2008.

MAPI: Lunasi Utang Valas
MAPI telah melunasi utang valasnya ke 13 perbankan asing dan lokal pada Desember 2009. Total utang yang dilunasi perusahaan pemilik jaringan ritel premium ini mencapai US$15,5 juta dan Y3,477 miliar.

HEXA: Patok target penjualan alat berat 1.400 unit FY10 dan naik 20-30% FY11
HEXA dalam periode April 2009 hingga Maret 2010, mematok target penjualan alat berat 1.400 unit. Setahun berikutnya, yakni di akhir Maret 2011, HEXA memproyeksikan, penjualan alat berat naik 15%-20% dari Maret 2010. Catatan saja, HEXA memang memakai tahun buku April-Maret.

PGAS: Bangun Terminal LNG Sumut Rp2 Triliun
PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS) Tbk memperkirakan investasi pembangunan terminal terapung gas alam cair di Sumatera Utarasekita Rp2 triliun. Sebanyak 30% atau sekitar Rp600 miliar berasal dari kas perusahaan dan Rp1,4 triliun dari pinjaman perbankan.

ASII: TA Finance Raih Pinjaman Rp3 T
PT Toyota Astra Financial Services (TA Finance) memperoleh plafon dana sedikitnya Rp3 T dari sejumlah bank asing guna meraih target pembiayaan baru yang dipatok mencapai Rp5,3 T tahun ini. Beberapa bank yang memberikan pinjaman tersebut seluruhnya dari asing di antaranya Mizuho Financial Group Inc, sebuah induk bank yang berbasis di Tokyo, Jepang, BOTM, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation dan Citibank.

Keputusan pemerintah untuk mengusulkan penunda pelaksanaa Single Present Policy (SPP) bank-bank BUMN disambut baik pengusaha perbankan BUMN. Penundaan tersebut dinilai tepat dengan kondisi yang ada saat ini.

Sumber: INilah.com, Detikfinance.com (market flash), kontan, investordaily
Globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com

Update Daily Investment News

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.3618 and 1.3568(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3547, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3524. Break of the latter would result in 1.3486. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3465. Continuation will give 1.3437 and 1.3410. Today's resistance: - 1.3778, 1.3805, 1.3837 and 1.3863(main). Break would give 1.3880, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.3921. Break of the latter would result in 1.3957. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.3976. Continuation will give 1.3998.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 89.10 and 88.54(main). Break would bring 88.22, where correction is possible. Then 87.94, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 87.60. If a strong impulse, we would see 87.36. Continuation would give 87.18. Today's resistance: - 90.34, 90.68, 91.18 and 91.34(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 91.78, where also a correction may be. Then 92.11. If a strong impulse, we would see 92.38. Continuation will give 92.66.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 9977.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 9946.12, where correction also can be. Then follows 9923.54. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 9906.63. Continuation will bring 9892.30 and 9866.25.Today's resistance: - 10127.80(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 10145.40, where a correction may happen. Then follows 10172.60, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 10203.72. Continuation would bring 10245.62 and 10271.30.

Dow 10,000, Fast Money's Correction Survival Guide
By: Lee Brodie Producer
Investors are bracing for a bumpy ride, after the Dow [.DJIA Loading... () ] briefly fell below the psychologically important 10,000 mark on Thursday before bouncing modestly at the close.But that bounce was little consequence for bulls. By the end of trading, stocks had suffered their worst losses in more than nine months after concerns about the debt of Greece and some other nations in Europe triggered widespread selling.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35238103

Halftime Report: Is Market About To Bounce?
By: Lee Brodie Producer
Halftime Report
The Dow [.DJIA Loading... () ] tumbled by triple digits on Thursday, as investors ran for the exits again, this time spooked by new data which showed Americans claiming jobless benefits rose unexpectedly.That combined with renewed fears of sovereign debt problems in Europe led investors to dump riskier assets.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35238118

G7: Euro Zone Calls on US, China to Rebalance Global Growth
By: Reuters
The United States and China will have to lead a rebalancing of global growth as the world economy slowly emerges from a downturn, the euro zone will tell G7 financial leaders this weekend according to a document prepared for the meeting.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35241706

Stick with Equities—They'll Pay Off: Strategists
By: JeeYeon Park CNBC News Associate
Markets opened lower on Thursday after a surprise jump in jobless claims, a disappointing signal ahead of Friday's jobs report. How is unemployment affecting the markets? Kelly Campbell, founder, principal and chief executive of Campbell Wealth Management and David Kelly, chief market strategist at JPMorgan Funds, shared their insights.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35235311

Goldman Sachs Drop Imperils S&P 500 Advance: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s decline below its average price in the last 200 days and the stock’s failure to rally to new highs since October are stoking bearishness among technical analysts.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aJjRxk56eNQU

Euro Risks ‘Leg Lower’ to $1.3405: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The euro risks tumbling to $1.3405 should it close tomorrow below a weekly moving average, Commerzbank AG said, citing trading patterns. Euro-dollar is “sitting” on its 200-week moving average, said Karen Jones, head of fixed-income, commodity and currency technical analysis in London. The level is currently at $1.3859, according to prices on Bloomberg. A weekly close below this would be “extremely negative,” Jones said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a6Aq1UBBe9m4

Emerging Equity Funds Post Most Outflows in 24 Weeks
(Bloomberg) -- Emerging market equity funds lost $1.6 billion in weekly withdrawals, the biggest outflows in 24 weeks, as earnings and Greece’s debt woes raised concerns that the global recovery may falter, EPFR Global said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aY82gx7YkQzI

G-7 Splits Hurt Investor Confidence as Ministers Seek Exit Plan
(Bloomberg) -- Group of Seven finance ministers and central bankers meet on the edge of the map today, with their policies all over it. As they gather 195 miles south of the Arctic Circle in Iqaluit, Canada, officials are seeking more unity on bank regulation after unilateral steps by the U.K. and U.S. The end of collaboration, forged during the financial crisis, may soon spread to monetary and fiscal policies as economies exit their recessions at different speeds.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=azfXSvJcIs1E

Indonesia Company Bond Sales in Record Start to Fund Expansion
(Bloomberg) -- PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara and PT Pertamina lead Indonesian infrastructure companies selling bonds to fund expansion in the busiest start to a year in more than a decade as the country doubles spending on roads, power and ports. Corporate bond sales denominated in rupiah or dollars jumped to $868 million this year from $236 million in the same period of 2009, making it the biggest start since at least 1999, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Utility Listrik Negara sold 2.7 trillion rupiah ($290 million) of bonds as it seeks to raise $7.6 billion through 2014 to expand power supply, while state oil company Pertamina said yesterday that it hired banks to help it raise as much as $1.5 billion.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aDuYDvYXLRhw

Aussie Dollar May Drop to 82 Cents on Slow Rate Gains, RBC Says
(Bloomberg) -- The Australian dollar may extend this week’s declines and drop to 82 U.S. cents by mid-year on prospects the central bank will raise interest rates at a slower pace than traders had anticipated, RBC Capital Markets said. Australia’s dollar may also fall as China extends efforts to curb economic growth and investors betting on gains in the Aussie exit their positions amid falling stocks and commodities, Sue Trinh, a senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Hong Kong, said today in a telephone interview. The so-called Aussie is the worst performer this week against the dollar and yen among its 16 most traded counterparts this week after the central bank unexpectedly kept rates unchanged on Feb. 2.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aj6qX9b13ddg

Citigroup Says Banks, Tech Stocks to Lead Kospi Rally
(Bloomberg) -- South Korean stocks may rise 22 percent this year, driven by banks and technology companies as they lead “strong” earnings growth in the country, according to Citigroup Inc.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aCnrHQczN9wY

Credit Suisse Raises Iron Ore Target to 50% Increase
(Bloomberg) -- Credit Suisse Group AG raised its price targets for iron ore and other bulk commodities for the next Japanese fiscal year, citing rising global steel output and increasing production costs in China. Credit Suisse expects the iron ore contract price to increase 50 percent to $86 a metric ton, after earlier forecasting a 20 percent gain. It increased its coking coal call by 19 percent to $190 a ton, and thermal coal by 13 percent to $90 a ton. Xstrata Plc, Anglo American Plc and Eurasian Natural Resources Corp. are among the bank’s top stock picks.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aL3qxtrYbuD4

Don't even think about rate rises until fourth quarter
(Reuters) - The Bank of England may have no secret deal with the Conservative Party to keep monetary policy loose, but interest rates look set to stay low for longer than many expect whoever wins the next election. With an election expected on May 6, the favourite-to-win Conservatives have pledged to work hand-in-hand with the Bank of England to keep interest rates down. The BoE had no comment and party officials explained all they meant was that monetary and fiscal policy should work together.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKLNE61203720100203

Laporan Fundamental & Rumor Saham Indonesia 04-02

PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk (PGN) meraup laba bersih lebih dari Rp 5 triliun di tahun 2009, naik 688,81% dari tahun 2008 sebesar Rp 633,859 miliar. Realisasi laba bersih ini didorong oleh peningkatan produksi gas yang naik signifikan. PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGN) akan jajaki akuisisi saham perusahaan produsen gas hulu dengan dana yang disiapkan sekitar Rp3,4 triliun.

PT CIMB Securities Indonesia mempertahankan rating outperdormn untuk Bank Central Asia Tbk (BCA) dengan target harga Rp4.700 dengan menggunakan metode DDM.

PT Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering Tbk (TRUB) telah memenangkan proyek dari PT Chevron Pacific Indonesia untuk kontrak jasa-jasa konstruksi tarif berbasis satuan kerja - paket C.

Direktur Jenderal Minyak dan Gas Bumi (Dirjen Migas) menegaskan, kabar bagus dari pengembangan gas Senoro adalah tiga bank BUMN BRI, Bank Mandiri, dan BNI.

PT Pertamina (Persero) dan PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk (PGN) menandatangani Perjanjian Pemegang Saham Pembentukan Joint Venture Company Floating Storage and Regasification Terminal (FSRT) gas alam cair ( LNG) Jawa Barat.

PT Ciputra Property Tbk (CTRP) disebut-sebut bakal menggandeng Hyundai Heavy Industries Ltd guna menggarap proyek Ciputra World Jakarta pada 1Q10. Kerja sama tersebut bakal menjadi momentum kenaikan harga CTRP menuju Rp350 dalam jangka pendek. Selain itu, rencana perseroan mengakuisisi lahan di kawasan pusat bisnis

PT Bhakti Investama Tbk (BHIT) dikabarkan segera mengumumkan akuisisi satu perusahaan pertambangan batubara dalam waktu dekat. Rencana itu akan menjadi momentum penguatan harga BHIT menuju kisaran Rp300-400. Perseroan juga bakal mendapat dana sekitar US$800 juta dari penjualan saham MNC Sky Vision. Saat ini, sebanyak 5 investor asing telah mengajukan penawaran kepada perseroan.

Kenaikan IHSG diprediksi tidak akan mewarnai perdagangan Kamis (4/2/2010) ini. IHSG diprediksi kembali bergerak fluktuatif seiring bursa-bursa utama dunia yang bergerak cukup variatif. Pengumuman BI Rate pada hari ini diprediksi tidak akan memberikan banyak pengaruh. Bursa Wall Street kemarin ditutup melemah, mengakhiri rally yang sudah berlangsung selama 2 hari berturut-turut. Kondisi ini diperburuk oleh rencana Presiden Barack Obama untuk mereformasi aturan perbankan dan kesehatan yang dikhawatirkan menggerus kinerja perusahaan 2 sektor ini.Pada perdagangan Rabu (3/2/2010), indeks Dow Jones industrial average (DJIA) ditutup melemah 26,30 poin (0,26%) ke level 10.270,55. Indeks Standard & Poor's 500 juga melemah 6,04 poin (0,55%) ke level 1.097,28. Nasdaq naik tipis 0,85 poin (0,04%) ke level 2.190,91.Namun Bursa Tokyo tidak mengikuti gerak Wall Street. Indeks Nikkei-225 dibuka menguat tipis 30,19 poin (0,29%) ke level 10.434,52.

RUpiah melemah ke Rp 9.330 terhadap dolar, mengikuti penguatan dolar terhadap mata uang Eropa (euro $ 1.3886; GBP $ 1.5915) dan yen Jepang (Y 90.87), setelah melihat data ISM Services AS meningkat di bawah prediksi dan kenaikan inventory minyak AS (2.3 juta barel) di pekan lalu.Hari ini pasar menanti keputusan suku bunga acuan 6.5%, diperkirakan tidak berubah. Survei Bloomberg News melihat peluang Bank INdonesia menaikan suku bunga di bulan Juni mendatang.

Bukit Asam Investasi PLTU US$ 101 Juta
PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) membangun tiga pembangkit listrik tenaga uap (PLTU) senilai total US$ 91-101 juta atau setara Rp 910 miliar–1,01 triliun. Pembangkit listrik yang dibangun untuk memenuhi kebutuhan internal perseroan itu masing-masing berkapasitas 310 MW, 2x8 MW, dan 2x10 MW.

Porsi Saham di LNG Receiving Terminal
Pertamina 60% dan PGN 40%
PT Pertamina dan PT PGN telah melaksanakan MoU kepemilikan saham di LNG Receiving Terminal Jawa Barat. Adapun besaran kepemilikan sahamnya Pertamina 60% dan PGN 40%.

Minyak Angkat Harga Komoditas
Hingga Kuartal I-2010, minyak bisa kembali mencapai US$ 80.

PT Timah Tbk (TINS) optimistis menjalani bisnisnya pada tahun ini. Demi melancarkan ekspansinya, produsen timah terbesar kedua di dunia ini menyiapkan belanja modal Rp 800 miliar.

Telat Sampaikan Laporan Keuangan
BEI Jerat SULI Rp50 M
PT Sumalindo Lestari Jaya Tbk (SULI) kena denda BEI sebesar Rp50 miliar lantaran telat menyampaikan laporan keuangan interm yang berkahir pada 30 September 2009.

Bapepam Belum Tahu Rencana Akuisisi Trimegah
Bapepam-LK belum mengetahui rencana penjualan sebagian besar saham PT Trimegah Securities Tbk (TRIM) kepada beberapa investor asing.

IPO Benakat Diserbu Investor Ritel
Penawaran berlangsung di kantor Bank Capital Gedung Menara DEA, Mega Kuningan, Jakarta, sejak kemarin hingga 5 Februari mendatang.

Pemilik Jual 13,4% Saham AKRA
Arthakencana menjual 420 juta saham atau 13,38% saham AKRA kepada investor domestik dan asing.

Kepemilikan Asing di SUN Terus Naik
Investor asing masih memburu SUN meski tidak lagi agresif. Selain mengoleksi SUN pada saat lelang, asing juga membeli SUN dari institusi keuangan.

PT Medco Energi International Tbk (MEDC) meraih pendanaan sebesar US$ 50 juta melalui penerbitan medium term notes (MTN) pada 2 Februari 2010. PT Bahana Seceurities bertindak sebagai arranger transaksi ini.

Economic: Indonesia akan Tahan Suku Bunga Hingga Juni Seiring Cepatnya Inflasi
Bank Sentral Indonesia kemungkinan akan mempertahankan suku bunga hingga akhir Juni seiring cepatnya laju inflasi, setelah mempertahankan biaya kredit d i level rendah pada bulan ini guna mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi. BI akan mempertahankan suku bunga di level 6,5% untuk 6 bulan berturut-turut, sebagaimana diungkapkan oleh 23 ekonom yang disurvei Bloomberg News. Dana sebanyak 12 dari 17 analis yang disurvei mengekspektasikan suku bunga akan naik pada akhir Juni.

Economic: Pemerintah Minta Penundaan SPP Bank BUMN Selama 2 Tahun
Kementerian Badan Usaha Milik Negara (BUMN) meminta penerapan aturan single present policy (SPP) terhadap bank BUMN ditunda selama 2 tahun dari ketentuan awal yaitu akhir 2010.Pasalnya, masih banyak kendala yang dihadapi dalam penerapannya. Keempat bank tersebut antara lain PT Bank Mandiri Tbk, PT Bank Tabungan Negara Tbk (BTN), PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BNI), dan PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk.

Economic: Laju Ekonomi 2009 di Atas 4,3% - BPS
BPS memastikan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi 2009 di atas 4,3% atau melampaui target dalam APBN Perubahan 2009. Laju ekonomi tersebut banyak ditopang oleh konsumsi, baik konsumsi masyarakat maupun pemerintah, serta investasi.

Economic: Daftar 10 Penunggak Pajak Terbesar
Berikut adalah daftar penunggak pajak per 1 Februari Ditjen Pajak
1. Pertamina (Persero) : Surat Paksa
2. Karaha Bodas Company LLC : Penyanderaan
3. Industri Pulp Lestari : Blokir Rekening
4. BPPN : Surat Paksa
5. Kalimanis Plywood Industries : Penyitaan
6. Bakrie Investindo : Surat Paksa
7. Bentala Kartika Abadi : Surat Paksa
8. Daya Guna Samudra Tbk : Pelelangan
9. Kaltim Prima Coal : Surat Paksa
10. Merpati Nusantara Airlines : Surat Paksa.

TINS: Timah Usulkan Dividen Sebesar 30%
PT Timah Tbk (TINS) mengajukan permintaan untuk menyetorkan dividen sebesar 30% dari laba bersih 2009 karena perseroan membutuhkan dana untuk mendukung ekspansi pada tahun ini. Perseroan mencatat, harga rata-rata timah sepanjang tahun lalu sebesar US$ 13.500 per ton, dengan volume penjualan mencapai 49.000 ton. Dengan mengacu pada jumlah tersebut, pendapatan Timah diperkirakan mencapai US$ 661,5 juta (sekitar Rp 6,28 triliun) pada 2009.

BUMI: Saham Jadi Underlying Aset Waran di Bursa Malaysia
Saham BUMI menjadi aset jaminan (underlying aset) waran di Bursa Malaysia. Saham itu menjadi jaminan covered warrant yang diterbitkan OSK Investmrnt Bank Berhard. Perusahaan itu menawarkan 75 juta waran berjenis coverred warrant dengan underlying asset saham BUMI.

ASII: Serasi Autoraya Terbitkan MTN Rp200 Miliar
PT Serasi Autoraya, anak usaha PT Astra International Tbk (ASII), akan menerbitkan surat utang jangka menengah bertenor dua tahun senilai Rp200 miliar. MTN tersebut akan diterbitkan dalam 2 bagian, masing-masing senilai Rp100 miliar. Perseroan belum menetapkan kupon MTN bagian kedua tersebut. Namun, perseroan berharap besaran kupon di bawah 11,5%.

PTBA: Investasi PLTU US$101 Juta
PTBA membangun 3 pembangkit listrik tenaga uap (PLTU) senilai US$91-101 juta atau setara RP910 miliar hingga Rp1,01 triliun. Pembangkit listrik yang dibangun untuk memenuhi kebutuhan internal perseroan itu masing-masing berkapasitas 310 MW, 2X8 MW, dan 2X10 MW. Bukit Asam membutuhakn dana US$41 juta (Rp410 miliar) untuk membiayai pembangunan tersebut.

AKRA: Arthakencana Lepas Saham AKRA
PT Arthakencana Rayatama, pemegang saham mayoritas PT AKR Corporindo Tbk (AKRA), menjual kepemilikan sahamnya sebanyak 420 juta atau senilai total Rp 443,10 miliar kepada publik. Dengan penjualan saham tersebut, maka kepemilikan saham Arthakencana berkurang sebesar 13,38% menjadi 57,44%. Penjualan tersebut dilaksanakan melalui transaksi overnight bookbuild yang dikelola oleh PT CLSA Indonesia dan PT Bahana Securities.

BLTA: Akan Terbitkan Obligasi Konversi US$ 100 Juta
PT Berlian Laju Tanker Tbk (BLTA) menawarkan obligasi konversi bergaransi US$ 100 juta bertenor 5 tahun dengan imbal hasil 12% per tahun. Dana tersebut akan digunakan untuk membiayai investasi seiring dengan pemberlakuan asas cabotage di Indonesia.

BDMN: Gugatan Kasus Red Dragon Dicabut
Tuntutan hukum terhadap PT Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk (BDMN) dan The Bank of New York Mellon terkait sengketa obligasi Red Dragon berakhir. Salah satu pemegang saham PT Central Proteinaprima Tbk, Charm Easy International, akhirnya mengajukan permohonan pencabutan gugatan terhadap kedua bank tersebut.

IPO: Jamsostek Kembalikan 70% Hasil Laba ke Peserta
PT Jamsostek berencana mengembalikan 70% dari perolehan laba 2009 sebagai insentif program Jaminan Hari Tua (JHT). Rencana itu telah diusulkan ke pemegang saham dan kini tengah menunggu persetujuan. Selama 2009, hasil investasi Jamsostek mencapai Rp8,27 triliun dengan perolehan laba kotor Rp7,03 triliun. Sebanyak Rp5,67 triliun dari perolehan laba kemudian dikembalikan kepada peserta.

Sumber: Inilah.com, detikfinance.com (Market Flash), Kontan.co.id, Investordaily

Update Daily Investment News

European Pair Review
Eur/Usd The four hour trend is short. The failure to hold above 1.4000 looked to be as much a Usd-desire story overall, rather than the usual 'Greece is sinking' headline that is becoming rather tiresome. The euro has hit the Bollinger Band center line, and is now looking to confirm direction. Near-term moves may not get too far ahead of the ECB rate decision on Thursday. Daily Chart: ATR is 135 pips. RSI is oversold. SMA is resistance.
Gbp/Usd The four hour trend is short. Gbp/Usd is still trading within a daily chart sideways channel that has held as support and resistance since May 2009. In the week of the Bank of England rate decision there is no reason to think that a break and hold will now happen, especially as price action is still very weak. The pair is back into the price points formed in early January, with a road-block of resistance all the way up to 1.6250. Daily Chart: ATR is 160 pips. RSI is moving under neutral. SMA is resistance. Stand aside ahead of the BoE.
Usd/Chf The four hour trend is long. The pair recently broke back higher, and back into the 4 hour chart channel that had been in place since September 2009. The near-term bounce off the 200-day simple moving average at 1.0535 was in reaction to Usd buying that was linked to Treasury note purchases. Daily Chart: ATR is 105 pips. RSI is heading towards over-bought. SMA is support. Favor a straddle.
Commodity and Yield Pair Review
Aud/Usd The four hour trend is short. The pair is oversold on the daily chart, and just signaled a short reversal on the 4 Hour chart Bollinger Band break of the center line. The pair had recovered in 36 hours what the RBA rate decision took in 1 minute to lose on Monday, and then gave most of that back again in one 4 Hour move on Wednesday. Daily Chart: ATR is 120 pips. RSI is heading to oversold. SMA is resistance. Favor an oversold bounce.
Usd/Cad The four hour trend is long. The pair reversed off the top of the 4 hour chart range, from an area that has sent price action lower on each test that has happened going back to Nov 2009. The last 4 trading sessions have been unable to move things too far past the 100-day simple moving average at 1.0560. The path of least resistance looks to be lower sideways ahead of Canadian employment on Friday. Daily Chart: ATR is 105 pips. RSI is backing off over-bought. SMA is support. Favor a straddle.
Usd/Jpy The 4 hour trend is short. The Usd/Jpy pair has been running sideways recently, with daily chart moving averages locking the pair in a tight channel. In doing so it has created a strange looking set of near-term charts. The pair moved higher in reaction to threats from the Japanese Finance Ministry that an over-valued Jpy will be addressed if the market does not adjust Usd/Jpy weakness, Daily Chart: ATR is 105 pips. RSI is at the neutral line. SMA is support and resistance. Favor a straddle.
Dollar, Equity, Commodity Review
The sideways crawl that has been the norm ahead of the first Thursday and Friday session of each month, followed through again on Wednesday, and the overnight session is unlikely to offer anything different. The first Thursday of each month normally brings the European Central Bank and Bank of England rate decisions, with the first Friday bringing the Canadian and U.S. employment reports.
The 4 Hour charts are easily holding a long-Usd trend, however, the sharp moves that hit as Wall Street absorbed macroeconomic data retain the pattern of having most of the year's moves housed in one extended 4 Hour candle in each 24 hour session. The market has found fair value, and it is on the long side of the dollar ahead of a wall of red flag releases.
Dollar Index. The 4 hour trend is long. The Usd has been bought in the move to the safety of Usd based Treasuries. Traders now have separation in regard to the differing percentage moves that are being made on each pair, as well as now needing to now carefully monitor the red flag economic releases that are likely to set the next substantial dollar based moves in play, as the global markets re-connect the dots and tenuously buy the Usd in-line with the selling of stocks and commodities. The 4 hour global market trends are favoring the short side of risk, and the long side of the dollar. Favor a straddle.
Equity Futures. The 4 hour trend is short across the global equity market. Wall Street stocks closed near to the low of the day, in a move that reflected a complete disregard for positive macroeconomics, and positive earnings reports, ahead of another huge week of red flag releases. The Usd is now moving up at the same percentage rate that stocks are moving down, ahead of the Friday Non-farm Payroll release. Favor a straddle.
Crude Oil. The 4 hour trend is short. Oil was recently trading at $77 per barrel after containing the buying seen in the previous sessions. Price action dropped down to test daily low at 76.50, but could not hold there. The long speculative interest in crude oil trade banked profit recently and in doing so aided the long side of Usd near-term buying. Favor a straddle.
Gold Bullion. The 4 hour trend is neutral. Gold Bullion has easily held below $1,125, however, the precious metal is easily holding 1105 support. Over the last week of trade, gold has regained $35, following the equity markets lower. To the downside, the next important support area is at $1195.00. Favor a straddle.

Written by TheLFB Trade Team, © 2007-2008 LFB Services, LLC. All rights reserved.

Stocks Plunge Risk at Highest Since April 1984, Survey Finds
(Bloomberg) -- Expectations that U.S. stocks will tumble 10 percent or more rose to highest level since April 1984 this week, according to Investors Intelligence’s weekly survey of newsletter writers. The proportion of investment writers who anticipate a so- called correction climbed to 38.9 percent in the week ended yesterday, an increase from 36.7 percent in the period ended Jan. 27. The New Rochelle, New York-based company has tracked the projections of newsletters since 1963.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a7MG6IzewL1E

Three Reasons to Buy Stocks
By: Robin Knight CNBC Assistant Web Producer
The stock rally of 2009 can continue this year as there are three key factors underpinning the market, Kevin Gardiner, head of investment strategy EMEA at Barclays Wealth, told CNBC Wednesday.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35214204

Crude Volatility to Spike If Breaks $65-$85: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil volatility, which has dropped to its lowest in two years, will stay at current levels until prices breach a “band” that surrounds them in the next couple of months, according to Hudson Capital Energy. Oil traded in New York will fluctuate by 25 to 35 percent until prices break free of the $65 to $85 a barrel range, said Clarence Chu, an options trader at Hudson Capital in Singapore. Crude prices, if able to successfully drive up to $90 a barrel or slide down to $60 in the next one or two months, would push implied volatility above 50 percent, he said. The $65-to-$85 “band” uses the highest and lowest prices of the front-month crude contract in the past five months, Chu said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aMzt7JsTf6j0

Loonie Confronts Greenback’s ‘Double Top’: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The Canadian dollar may rally against its U.S. counterpart if it avoids over the next two weeks falling through the weakest level of its recent trading range, according to Royal Bank of Canada, the nation’s biggest bank. A close below support at C$1.0578 would indicate the U.S. currency’s advance is beginning to erode, George Davis, chief technical analyst in Toronto at RBC, wrote in a research note today. The greenback will have to surmount a “double top” above C$1.07 to advance toward C$1.0867, according to Davis. Support is a level where buy orders may be clustered.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aSvSR98d2kzg

Gasoline Poised to Rise Past $2.19 a Gallon: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Gasoline futures are set to rise past $2.19 a gallon after breaking through resistance at $2, according to a technical analysis by Newedge Group.The March contract “surged higher, pulverizing resistance,” said Veronique Lashinski, a senior research analyst for Newedge USA LLC. “It is positioned to continue higher,” and challenge resistance between $2.05 and $2.10.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=azujVLnNsCzs

Dollar Gains Against Yen, Euro on Economic Recovery Signs
(Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose against the yen and the euro as a report showed U.S. companies cut fewer positions than anticipated two days before data forecast to show the economy added the most jobs in two years. The greenback gained against 14 of its 16 most-traded counterparts tracked by Bloomberg. The euro gained against the yen after European Union Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said the EU endorsed Greece’s deficit-cutting program.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=atZO5lDVeml0

China Policy Risk Will Drive Steel Stocks Down, Deutsche Says
(Bloomberg) -- China’s monetary tightening will hurt steel stocks because traders will need to sell inventory to finance working capital, driving down metal prices, Deutsche Bank AG said.

China Stocks Drop ‘Speed Bump’ Before Rise, CLSA Says
(Bloomberg) -- The tumble in China’s stocks is a “speed bump” and won’t last for more than three months before rallying, said Christopher Wood, chief strategist at CLSA Ltd.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aNpktSpEWUjk

Biggest Bubble in History Is Growing Every Day: William Pesek
(Bloomberg) -- Real estate, stocks, credit. China sure has its share of bubbles. Oddly, little attention is paid to the biggest one of all. China’s currency reserves grew by more than the gross domestic product of Norway in 2009. Its $2.4 trillion of reserves is a bubble all its own, one growing before our eyes with nary a peep out of those searching for the next big one.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a4mPCXeGTl4Y

U.S. Stock Options With Biggest Changes in Implied Volatility
(Bloomberg) -- The following are the U.S. stock options that had the biggest percentage changes in implied volatility from the previous trading day as of 11:30 a.m. in New York. This {OSCH } search was limited to options that are more than 10 days from expiration, have trading volume of at least 200 contracts and have strike prices within 5 percent of the underlying security's price.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a4Go_KX6qNy4

Using the Super Bowl to Predict Markets

http://www.marketwatch.com/video/asset/news-hub-using-the-super-bowl-to-predict-markets-2010-02-03/04998208-C320-4F26-A915-075FD16E6D3B

Laporan Fundamental & Rumor Saham Indonesia 03-02

UBS Asia Coal sector report
Stock - new TP – current close price – upside potential
ADRO – 2700 – 1860 – 45.2%
BUMI – 3700 – 2500 – 48.0%
ITMG – 42800 – 31300 – 36.7%
PTBA – 25500 – 16500 – 54.5%
Top pick is ADRO.

CLSA upgrade harga saham HEXA menjadi Rp 4.600

Research Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) Securities: Hold ADRO target Rp 2.050

Research Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) Securities: Buy ITMG target Rp 38.000

BVIC disebut-sebut oleh beberapa pelaku pasar sedang menjadi target akusisi bank asing, sempat beredar kabar bahwa Standard Chartered Bank tengah menjajaki opsi akuisisinya sekitar Rp173 per saham atau dua kali dari nilai buku (book value).

Harga saham PT Triwira Insanlestari Tbk (TRIL) dikabarkan bakal diangkat menuju kisaran Rp130-150 dalam waktu dekat. Pembentukan joint venture antara perseroan dengan perusahaan pertambangan batubara yang juga tercatat di BEI akan menjadi momentum kenaikan harga TRIL. Selain itu, ekspansi usaha perseroan ke bidang pemasaran komoditas batubara melalui Triwira Global Resources tahun ini juga bakal berdampak positif.

Nilai tukar rupiah dan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) mengawali perdagangan hari ini dengan cerah ceria. Sentimen positif dari penguatan bursa-bursa global membuat IHSG dan rupiah semangat meski tipis. Pada perdagangan Rabu (3/2/2010), IHSG dibuka menguat 18,189 poin (0,70%) ke level 2.598,440.Sementara nilai tukar rupiah dibuka menguat tipis ke 9.330 per dolar AS, dibandingkan penutupan sebelumnya di level 9.370 per dolar AS.Bursa-bursa regional juga bergerak menguat mengikuti penguatan bursa Wall Street tadi malam. Namun penguatan bursa regional ini tidak terlalu signifikan.Indeks Nikkei-225 menutup sesi I dengan menguat tipis 29,51 poin (0,28%) ke level 10.400,60. Indeks Hang Seng dibuka menguat 143,74 poin (0,71%) ke level 20.415,92.

PT Tambang Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) menargetkan volume penjualan batubara tahun ini naik 20 persen dibanding total penjualan tahun lalu yang mencapai sekitar 12,6 juta ton.

PT Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR) mengajukan naik banding menyusul ditolaknya gugatan perdata oleh Pengadilan Negeri Jakarta Pusat terhadap perjanjian bagi hasil kerja sama jalan tol Cibitung-Cikampek dengan PT Bangun Tjipta Sarana pada akhir pekan lalu.

Prediksi Jelang RDG 4 Februari
Kejar Growth atau Tahan Inflasi?
Sejak 5 Agustus 2009, BI mempertahankan BI Rate di level 6,5%. Padahal setengah tahun terakhir angka inflasi rendah di level 0-2%. Nilai tukar juga relatif stabil.

Economic: Kekayaan Negara Tambah Rp481 T
Kementerian Keuangan mencatat penambahan nilai sebesar Rp481,53 T per 31 Januari 2010 dari hasil inventarisasi dan penilaian barang milik Negara (BMN) milik 20.055 satuan kerja. Menkeu menuturkan pemerintah telah melakukan inventarisasi dan penilaian BMN pada seluruh satuan kerja sejak 3Q07. Hingga penghujung 2008, terdapat 10.254 dari 22.307 satker yang telah selesai melakukan inventarisasi.

Economic: Permintaan Sukuk Ritel Capai Rp5,56 T
Permintaan terhadap sukuk ritel seri 002 (SR-002) hingga kemarin mencapai Rp5,56 T dari agen penjual. Dirjen Pengelolaan Utang Depkeu mengatakan jumlah permintaan yang besar membuat pemerintah tidak memberikan lagi izin peningkatan target (upsize) penjualan SR-002 dari total 18 agen penjual.

Energy: Pemerintah Buka Kran Impor Gas Bumi
Pemerintah membuka kran impor gas bumi untuk mendukung pemenuhan gas di dalam negeri. Impor tersebut baru dilakukan jika pasokan gas dari dalam negeri tidak mencukupi. Kebijakan tersebut tertuang dalam pasal 5 Peraturan Menteri ESDM No.3 Tahun 2010 tentang Alokasi dan Pemanfaatan Gas Bumi untuk Pemenuhan Kebutuhan Dalam Negeri.

Banking: NIM Mulai Turun - BI
Margin suku bunga perbankan (net interest margin/NIM) mulai menurun pada awal Februari 2010, dari 6,23% menjadi 6,08%. Bank-bank swasta menjadi penyumbang utama margin suku bunga tersebut. Deputi Gubernur BI Muliaman D Hadad mengatakan, penurunan margin bunga bank terkait efisiensi yang dilakukan oleh perbankan, namun diyakini margin masih bisa diturunkan.

ADMF: Incar Booking Naik 20%
PT Adira Dinamika Multifinance Tbk (Adira Finance) menargetkan mampu meningkatkan pembiayaan baru (new booking) sebesar 20% dari pencapaian tahun lalu senilai Rp14,5 T. Direktur Adira Finance pada tahun ini, perseroan lebih optimistis dengan menargetkan pembiayaan baru naik antara 15% dan 20% seiring dengan prediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional yang semakin positif.

TRIM: Tiga Investor Asing Bidik Saham Trimegah
Setidaknya ada tiga investor asing yang menjadikan TRIM sebagai target akuisisi seiring meningkatnya pasar modal. Direktur TRIM, Karman Pamurahardjo, menyatakan dua pemegang saham pengendali TRIM, yakni Soinnaker Fund melalui Demerara Ltd dan Avi Yasa Dwipayana, tidak menutup kemungkinan melepas sahamnya.

MEDC: Terbitkan Surat Utang
PT Medco Energi International Tbk (MEDC) menerbitkan MTN senilai total US$ 7,9 juta (sekitar Rp 73,96 miliar). Kupon MTN itu akan dibayarkan perusahaan setiap 3 bulanan kepada investor.

BLTA: Akan Terbitkan Convertible Bond Senilai US$ 100 Juta
PT Berlian Laju Tanker Tbk (BLTA) akan menerbitkan convertible bond bertenor 5 tahun senilai US$ 100 juta. Obligasi tersebut akan ditawarkan kepada investor institusi dan internasional di luar AS. Obligasi tersebut akan memiliki kupon sebesar 12% dan akan diterbitkan sekitar 10 Februari. Dana hasil penerbitan obligasi tersebut akan digunakan untuk investasi cabotage di Indonesia, membayar utang, serta memperkuat modal kerja.

UNTR: Targetkan Pangsa Pasar Alat Berat 45%
UNTR tahun ini menargetkan penguasaan pangsa pasar alat berat sebesar 45% dari total penjualan alat berat nasional. Volume penjualan alat berat perseroan diharapkan naik 15% menjadi 3.577 unit disbanding tahun lalu 3.011 unit.

TINS: Anggarkan Capex Rp 800 Miliar di 2010
PT Timah Tbk (TINS) menganggarkan capex senilai Rp 800 miliar di sepanjang 2010.TINS akan menggunakan capex itu untuk menambah kapal hisap dan kapal keruk.Sekretaris Perusahaan Timah Abrun Abubakar mengatakan, penambahan lima kapal hisap menelan biaya Rp 25 miliar-Rp 30 miliar per unit. Sementara, TINS membutuhkan biayaRp 200 miliar untuk memodifikasi satu kapal keruk.

BTEL: Akan Perbesar Bond
PT Bakrie Telecom Tbk (BTEL) akan memperbesar emisi obligasi global hingga US$300 juta apabila road show yang digelar perseroan pada bulan ini menunjukkan animo positif dari pelaku pasar. Menurut Wakil Direktur Utama Bakrie Telecom, perseroan akan menggunakan dana tersebut guna membayar utang perseroan (refinancing) dan penguatan kapasitas perseroan ke depan.

IPO: Saham Benakat Diincar 10 Investor Asing
PT Benakat Petroleum Energy mulai menggelar penawaran saham perdana kepada investor ritel. Sebanyak 20% dari total saham IPO perusahaan minyak dan gas bumi ini dialokasikan untuk investor ritel dan sisanya, sebanyak 80% diperuntukkan bagi investor institusi. Perusahaan mengatakan ada 5 hingga 10 perusahaan asing yang mengincar saham IPO perusahaan. Perusahaan itu berasal dari Singapura dan Hong Kong.

Penyaluran KUR BRI 2009 Turun Rp1,545 T
PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia, hingga akhir Desember 2009 telah menyalurkan Kredit Usaha Rakyat sebesar Rp5.321.189 triliun atau turun Rp1,545 triliun.

Mayora Hentikan Operasional Anak Usaha
PT Mayora Indah Tbk (MYOR) menutup kegiatan operasional anak usahanya, PT Sinar Pangan Timur.

Memilih Lebih Hati-hati Mengarungi Samudera
Posisi keuangan Samudera Indonesia masih aman karena rasio utangnya kecil.

MPPA Kantongi Duit Tunai Rp 5,28 T dari CVC
MPPA juga memberikan utang Rp 1 triliun ke pemilik baru Matahari Department Store.

Reksadana Pendapatan Tetap Masih Berprospek
MI bisa menggejot return dengan melirik potensi laju kenaikan IHSG.

Saham Benakat Diincar 10 Investor Asing
Investor asing mengincar 90% dari jatah saham IPO untuk investor institusi.

Bank Sentral Tahan Bunga, Aussie Longsor
Keputusan Australia mempertahankan suku bunga mengejutkan pasar. Aussie berpotensi melorot menuju US$ 0,85 per dollar aussie

Obligasi Jatuh Tempo 2010 Rp 9,15 Triliun
Sebagian besar obligasi korporasi yang jatuh tempo tahun ini merupakan obligasi dari perusahaan pembiayaan.

Radiant Incar Kontrak Rp 1,3 T
PT Radiant Utama Interinsco Tbk (RUIS) mengincar kontrak senilai Rp 1,3 triliun sepanjang 2010. Total kontrak ini meningkat sebanyak 20% dibandingkan realisasi tahun lalu sekitar Rp 1,1-1,2 triliun.

Intiland Siapkan Capex Rp 350 M
PT Intiland Development Tbk (DILD) menyiapkan belanja modal (capital expenditure/capex) senilai Rp 350 sepanjang 2010. Dana digunakan untuk membiayai pengembangan kawasan serta pembangunan rumah sakit.

Elnusa Danai Eksplorasi Bangkanai US$418,949
PT Elnusa Tbk (ELSA) menghabiskan anggaran eksplorasi blok Bangkanai PSC sekitar US$418,949 pada Januari 2010. Eksplorasi ini untuk jangka waktu 30 tahun.

Hati-hati Dengan Saham Telko & Bank!
CIMB Securities Indonesia melihat banyak investor luar negeri yang khawatir ketidakstabilan bursa saham akhir-akhir ini apakah IHSG masih bisa bertahan.

BLTA Jajaki Obligasi Konversi US$100 Jt
PT Berlian Laju Tanker Tbk (BLTA) akan menawarkan obligasi konversi bergaransi sekitar US$100 juta dengan bunga 12% dan jatuh tempoi pada 2015.

Bakrie & Brothers Tbk (BNBR) saat ini measih menjajaki beberapa calon arranger terkait rencana penerbitan emisi obligasi tukar (convertible bond).

Kim Eng Dorong Saham EPMT Naik 15,20%
Pergerakan saham Enseval Putra Megatrading (EPMT) kemarin mengalami lonjakan signifikan 12,5% ke Rp900 dengan volume 151.000 unit senilai Rp134,04 juta setelah diborong Kim Eng.

Naik 16,25%, Saham PLAS Diborong Waterfront Securities
Pada perdagangan kemarin, saham Polaris Investama (PLAS) tercatat naik 16,25% ke Rp920. Ternyata, diborong Waterfront Securities (FR) sebanyak 3,761 juta unit saham.

Sumber: Inilah.com, Kontan, Detikfinance.com (Market Flash), InvestorDaily, Dll

Daily Outlook of IHSG & Global

IHSG Outlook
Potensi kenaikan IHSG masih terbuka hari ini, meski kemarin gagal memanfaatkan mayoritas kenaikan indeks saham regional Asia dan Wall Street, diikuti kenaikan harga komoditi global (harga minyak naik ke $ 75,44, emas ke $ 1114,65, cpo ke Myr 2.473), serta kondisi teknikal yang oversold, terutama menjelang pertemuan Rapat Dewan Gubernur (RDG) Bank Indonesia besok dan sejumlah pertemuan bank sentral (ECB & BOE), data tenaga kerja AS (jumat) dan pertemuan negara G7 di akhir pekan, dapat picu investor melakukan short squezze dan memburu saham dan komoditi yang saat ini terlihat relatif murah dan masih menunjukkan trend bullish jangka menengah. Sementara dimulainya musim laporan pendapatan emiten domestik untuk kuartal 4 2009, seharusnya tercatat lebih baik dari kuartal 3 2009, berkat ekspektasi lebih tingginya pertumbuhan ekonomi (prediksi GDP Q4 RI: 4,4%) didukung oleh tingginya konsumsi masyarakat dan kenaikan harga komoditas (cpo, batubara, minyak, logam di kuartal 4 09) dan adanya switching portofolio ke saham lapis kedua dan ketiga (APOL, ASRI, PLAS, BSDE, DILD, EPMT, HEXA), dapat menopang kinerja IHSG.

Global Outlook
Potensi kenaikan indeks saham regional Asia dan Wall Street diperkirakan akan berlanjut pada hari ini, berkat ekspektasi pemulihan ekonomi global lebih lanjut akan meningkatkan permintaan untuk komoditi dan pendapatan korporasi global, meningkatkan daya tarik untuk saham dan komoditi di pekan ini. Kondisi teknikal dari indeks saham regional Asia dan Wall Street yang oversold, di tengah minimnya rilisan data ekonomi dari AS, setelah mendapatkan data manufakturing China dan AS meningkat di atas prediksi pasar, dapat memberikan support kepada indeks saham global pekan ini, terutama menjelang rilisan data tenaga kerja AS, pertemuan bank sentral (BOE, ECB) dan G7 di akhir pekan, seharusnya meredakan kekhawatiran terhadap isu pengetatan kredit dan moneter dari China hingga India di bulan mendatang. Analis di AS upgrade saham komoditi seperti Alcoa Inc dan Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc, setelah Citigroup menaikkan rating menjadi “Buy”, dan Bank of America menyarankan investor untuk membeli saham Exxon Mobil Corp, diikuti Ron Burkle akan mengakuisisi 37% saham penjual buku Barnes & Noble Inc, dapat menopang kinerja saham Wall Street dan indeks global hari ini.
Universal Broker Indonesia Securities (TF) Newsletter Vol 378
Hold 25 Top Pick until 05/02
Technical Analysis

Update Daily Investment News

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.3925 and 1.3903(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3892, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3872. Break of the latter would result in 1.3849. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3816. Continuation will give 1.3794 and 1.3772.Today's resistance: - 1.3998, 1.4037, 1.4088 и 1.4133(main). Break would give 1.4176, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.4223. Break of the latter would result in 1.4254. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.4276. Continuation will give 1.4299.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 90.00(main). Break would bring 89.82, where correction is possible. Then 89.47, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 89.10. If a strong impulse, we would see 88.66. Continuation would give 88.22.Today's resistance: - 90.81(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 90.90, where also a correction may be. Then 91.18. If a strong impulse, we would see 91.34. Continuation will give 91.78.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 10247.80, 10211.48 and 10168.24(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 10155.70, where correction also can be. Then follows 10140.87. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 10119.30. Continuation will bring 10092.25 and 10068.76.Today's resistance: - 10308.22, 10336.60 and 10350.24(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 10374.40, where a correction may happen. Then follows 10728.70, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 10470.94. Continuation would bring 10496.30 and 10527.12

Fibonacci Chart Shows Dow Peaked in January: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The Dow Jones Industrial Average may have peaked when it closed at 10,725 last month, according to an analysis by Execution LLC using so-called Fibonacci numbers to forecast bull and bear markets. The level, the highest since September 2008, represented about 1.618 times the benchmark’s close of 6,626.94 on March 6, when the index sank to a 12-year low intraday, according to Rick Bensignor, chief market strategist for the New York-based brokerage. The 1.618 factor, or golden ratio, defines the numerical sequence popularized in Europe by Italian mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci during the 13th century.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aSWkxfBug164

Gold May Repeat Early Rally, Citigroup Says: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Gold may extend gains as the metal repeats a trend of rallying at the start of the month, said Citigroup Inc., citing historical patterns. The attached chart shows the “aggressive” rallies in the first few sessions of each month since September. Gold gained 2.3 percent yesterday, the most since Nov. 3, and was up 0.8 percent at $1,114.60 an ounce at 12:13 p.m. in London.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a_xN6V3et8e4

Oil May Pull Back After Rising Above $78: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may pull back below $73 a barrel even if the market retraces two weeks of losses and climbs back above $78, National Australia Bank Ltd. said. Oil, which fell in January in its first monthly decline since July, is “on the defensive” after technical support marked by two short-term moving averages was breached, said Gordon Manning, a Sydney-based technical analyst at Australia’s fourth-largest bank. While prices are rebounding, the risk remains skewed to the downside, he said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=abolZ2IykJCA

El-Erian Says Retreat in Stocks Will Worsen as Economy Slumps
(Bloomberg) -- Mohamed A. El-Erian, whose firm runs the world’s biggest mutual fund, said the largest stock market decline in 11 months may worsen amid persistent U.S. joblessness and economic growth that trails analysts’ forecasts. Investors have wrongly priced in an “orderly” withdrawal of stimulus measures, a rebound in bank lending and coordinated government policy to restore growth, the chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co. wrote in a Bloomberg News column. That means Wall Street projections for gains in 2010 may prove incorrect and prices will slump, he said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aKp04HpeyeLU

Technical Analysis's Tao Says Asian Stocks May Rally: Video

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aPWrpnXaOp.g

Art Cashin: Oversold Stock Markets in Reflex Rally
By: JeeYeon Park CNBC News Associate
Stocks continued to rise on Tuesday following Monday's rally. How long will the market rally continue? Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS Financial Services, shared his insights.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35187576

Oil, Goldman Sachs Pops Confirm This Market is For Traders, Not Investors
By: John Melloy Executive Producer, Fast Money Beyond the money
Today’s (and yesterday’s) action confirms this is a market for traders — not investors — as oil and other commodities lead a rebound in the related share prices. Consider the case of Freeport-McMoran [FCX Loading... () ], the largest publicly-traded copper producer in the world. From the stock’s early January peak until its late January low, the shares fell about 20 percent.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35197585

Laporan Fundamental & Rumor Saham Indonesia 02-02-2010

Sejumlah fund asing tengah mengakumulasi kembali saham PT Agis Tbk (TMPI), terkait kabar bahwa perseroan akan mengenmbangkan usahanya ke bisnis multimedia di luar negeri. Pemegang mayoritas saham perseroan disebut-sebut bakal ekspansi besar-besaran.

PT Ciputra Surya Tbk (CTRS) dikabarkan bakal menyelesaikan sejumlah proyek di Surabaya dan akuisisi lahan di Sidoarjo dan Semarang. Perseroan telah menyiapkan dana sebesar Rp500 miliar, Bahkan salah satu perusahaan di Singapura berminat membentuk aliansi strategis dengan perseroan. Terkait itu, harga CTRS berpotensi menuju Rp650-700 dalam jangka pendek.

Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) dan nilai tukar rupiah pagi ini kompak menguat. IHSG kembali menembus level 2.600, sementara nilai tukar rupiah kembali di bawah level 2.400 per dolar AS. Pada perdagangan Selasa (2/2/2010), IHSG dibuka menguat hingga 15,425 poin (0,60%) ke level 2.602,974.Sementara nilai tukar rupiah dibuka juga menguat ke level 9.370 per dolar AS, dibandingkan penutupan kemarin di level 9.410 per dolar AS.Penguatan IHSG terjadi setelah bursa Wall Street tadi malam menguat cukup signifikan berkat kuatnya laporan keuangan Exxon dan indeks manufaktur AS yang melebihi ekspektasi analis.Bursa-bursa regional juga dibuka langsung menguat. Indeks Nikkei-225 menutup sesi I dengan kenaikan 191,46 poin (1,88%) ke level 10.396,48. Indeks Hang Seng dibuka menguat 239,55 poin (1,18%) ke level 20.483,30.

PT CIMB Securities mempertahankan rating neutral untuk Perusahaan Gas NEgara Tbk (PGAS) dengan target harga Rp4.400 berdasarkan metode DFC yang tidak berubah (WACC 12%).

Target BUMI Rp3.200 di Kuartal I 2010
INILAH.COM, Jakarta – Saham PT Bumi Resources (BUMI), Selasa (2/2) diprediksikan melanjutkan penguatan teknis menyusul koreksi 6 hari berturut-turut pekan lalu. Trading buy untuk BUMI!

PT Sampoerna Agro Tbk (SGRO) mengalami penurunan laba bersih sebesar 71,71% per Juni 2009 menjadi Rp95,04 miliar dibanding periode serupa 2008 Rp336,04 miliar.

PT Hexindo Adiperkasa Tbk (HEXA) mencatat pertumbuhan laba bersih sepanjang sembilan bulan pertama 2009 21,71% dari US$17,418 juta menjadi US$21,200 juta.Demikian disampaikan Presiden Direktur Hexindo Manuntun Situmorang kepada bursa, hari ini. Ia menguraikan, peningkatan laba bersih ini ditopang oleh tumbuhnya penjualan yang signifikan sekitar 13,14% dari US$202,908 juta menjadi US$229,575 juta.

Sektor industri pengolahan khususnya tekstil dan garmen serta industri properti masih dihindari perbankan untuk penyaluran kreditnya. Kedua sektor tersebut dinilai cukup berisiko tinggi.

Selama triwulan IV-2009, sektor industri pengolahan khususnya subsektor tekstil dan garmen masih dihindari perbankan untuk penyaluran kreditnya. Bank menganggap masih lemahnya permintaan tekstil dari asing dan rencana pemberlakuan ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement pada tahun 2010 akan memperberat kompetisi di industri tekstil.

PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) mencatat penurunan pendapatan 9,84% di tahun 2009. Pertumbuhan kinerja penjualan emas perseroan sebesar 57,75% berhasil menahan laju penurunan harga ferronikel sebesar 33% yang membuat pendapatan ferronikel perseroan turun 40%.

PT Benakat Petroleum Energy Tbk (BIPI) telah memperoleh pernyataan efektif penawaran umum perdana saham (Initial Public Offering/IPO) dari Badan Pengawas Pasar Modal & Lembaga Keuangan (Bapepam-LK). Penawaran umum akan dilakukan pada 3-5 Februari 2010.

Saham perdana PT PP (Persero) Tbk mencatat oversubscribed atau kelebihan permintaan hingga 1,7 kali, dengan jumlah permintaan lebih dari Rp 900 miliar.

Economic: Inflasi Januari 2010 Sebesar 0,84% MoM dan 3,72% YoY
BPS mencatat laju inflasi sepanjang Januari 2010 sebesar 0,84% MoM dan 3,72% YoY. Kenaikan disebabkan naiknya harga beras rata-rata 8% dibandingkan dengan Desember 2009 menyumbang inflasi sebanyak 0,35% dan cabai merah 0,06%.

Economic: Surplus Perdagangan RI Melonjak 151%
BPS mencatat, surplus neraca perdagangan Indonesia sepanjang 2009 mencapai US$19,63 miliar atau naik 151%, dibandingkan 2008 sebesar US$7,82 miliar. Meski demikian, BPS menilai kenaikan surplus neraca perdagangan Indonesia belum bisa dikatakan ideal karena tidak disertai peningkatan jumlah ekspor dan impor. Bahkan, jumlah perdagangan ekspor-impor 2009 menurun yoy. Surplus perdagangan itu berasal dari ekspor Indonesia selama Januari-Desember 2009 mencapai US$116,49 miliar, sedangkan impor US$96,855 miliar.

Economic: Stimulus Efektif Dorong PDB
Pemerintah mengklaim pemberian stimulus fiskal Rp73,3 T pada tahun lalu mampu mendongkrak pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia naik 1,4% dari yang seharusnya. Kepala Badan Kebijakan Fiskal Departemen Keuangan mengatakan bila tanpa kebijakan stimulus fiskal, pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia tahun lalu hanya akan mencapai 2,9%. Menurutnya, dampak terbesar stimulus fiskal terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi terjadi pada 4Q09.

Economy : BI Belum Tergoda Ubah BI Rate 6,5%
Suku bunga acuan Bank Indonesia (BI-Rate) diprediksi masih akan tetap stagnan yakni 6,5% pada bulan Februari 2010 ini. Bank sentral belum akan menaikkan suku bunganya karena tingkat inflasi yang cenderung mengalami kenaikan tipis akibat dari kenaikan harga pangan. Demikian disampaikan Kepala Ekonom Bank Mandiri, Mirza Adityaswara usai menjadi pembicara dalam diskusi Ikatan Pialang Efek Indonesia di Hotel Nikko, Jakarta, Senin malam (01/02/2010). Hal senada disampaikan ekonom dari Citigroup Johanna Chua yang menilai BI Rate kemungkinan besar masih akan dipertahankan. Namun pernyataan kebijakan moneter BI kemungkinan lebih tegas karena tingkat inflasi yang tumbuh lebih cepat dari prediksi.

MPPA: Buyback Bond Matahari Di Harga Par

PT Matahari Putra Prima Tbk mempunyai opsi untuk membeli kembali (buyback) obligasi US$200 juta di harga par atau 100%. Opsi itu tertuang dalam perjanjian penerbitan obligasi dolar yang disepakati antara perusahaan ritel yang dikendalikan oleh Keluarga Riady melalui PT Multipolar Tbk dan pemegang obligasi. Matahari bisa melaksanakan opsi itu setelah menjual 90,76% saham di PT Matahari Departemen Store Tbk (MDS) senilai Rp7,17 T kepada Meadow Asia Company Limited yang dikendalikan oleh CVC Capital Partners, hampir tiga kali lipat dari posisi kas perusahaan ritel tersebut.

CPRO: Negosiasi Obligasi CPRO Belum Tuntas
PT Central Prima Proteinaprima Tbk masih berupaya meminta persetujuan restrukturisasi surat utangnya senilai US$325 Juta dengan mayoritas investor pemegang obligasi, pascatertundanya pembayaran kupon bunga senilai US$17 juta. Sekretaris Perusahaan CP Prima mengatakan perwakilan pemegang obligasi sedang berupaya mendapatkan tanda tangan dari pemegang obligasi lainnya, guna memperoleh persetujuan lebih dari 50% jumlahinvestor pemilik pokok terutang.

DEWA: Quest Miliki 12% Saham DEWA
Per 21 Januari 2010, PT Darma Henwa Tbk (DEWA) memiliki pemegang saham baru, yakni Quest Corporation. Quest tercatat memiliki 2,76 miliar atau 12,61% saham DEWA. Quest menjadi pemegang saham DEWA melalui proses rights issue.

KLBF: Laba Bersih 2009 Diperkirakan Melonjak 31,57%
Sepanjang tahun 2009, laba bersih PT Kalbe Farma Tbk (KLBF) diperkirakan mencapai Rp 930 miliar, naik 31,57% dibandingkan dengan pencapaian 2008 yaitu Rp 706,82 miliar. Tingginya pencapaian laba bersih ditopang oleh meningkatnya perolehan pendapatan perseroan dari Rp 7,87 triliun pada 2008 menjadi Rp 9 triliun pada 2009.

TRUB: Investasi US$400 Juta Pada 2010
TRUB akan menginvestasikan US$400 juta untuk membangun 4 unit PLTU tahun ini. Truba akan mendanai keempat proyek PLTU dari ekuitas (30%) dan pinjaman bank (70%). Saat ini Truba juga mengincar dua kontrak senilai US$145 juta.

AKRA: Membangun Terminal BBM 200.000 KL
AKRA berencana membangun terminal bahan bakar minyak (BBM) tahap II di Tanjung Priok dengan kapasitas 200.000 kiloliter (kl). Pembangunan itu merupakan kelanjutan pembangunan tahap I dengan kapasitas 250.00kl.

BNGA: Kredit Otomotif Tumbuh 25%
BNGA menjadikan sektor otomotif sebagai salah satu fokus dalam pertumbuhan kredit pada tahun 2010 karena kredit sektor otomotif selalu bertumbuh signifikan dalam beberapa tahun terakhir. Per 30 September 2009, misalnya, jumlah pinjaman yang telah dikucurkan untuk kredit pemilikan kendaraan bermotor mencapai R p 7,5 triliun, meningkat 25% dibandingkan dengan posisi sama tahun sebelumnya. Jumlah ini memberikan kontribusi sebesar 33% dari total kredit ritel BNGA.

IPO: Garuda Berencana Gelar IPO pada 2H10
PT Garuda Indonesia berencana menggelar IPO pada 2H10. Dari aksi korporasi tersebut, Garuda mengincar perolehan dana sekitar US$ 250 juta hingga US$ 300 juta. Dana yang diperoleh akan digunakan untuk membiayai ekspansi usaha, salah satunya membeli pesawat baru.

Sumber Alfaria Ekspansi Alfamart ke Vietnam
Ekspansi ke Vietnam dilakukan agar AMRT menjadi pemain ritel regional dan menciptakan nilai tambah bagi pemegang saham.

PTRA Bayar Tunggakan Pajak dengan Tanah
Tanah itu terletak di dua kecamatan Kabupaten Serang.

Permintaan atas Sukuk Ritel Hampir Mencapai Rp 5 Triliun
Jumlah ini telah mencapai 163% dari target indikatif pemerintah, Rp 3 triliun.

Harga Timah Jatuh ke US$ 16.100 Terseret Minyak Mentah
Ini adalah penurunan harga timah terburuk sejak Juli 2009.

PP Beri Jatah Investor Ritel 30%
Pada hari pertama penawaran saham IPO, kemarin, antusiasme investor ritel belum terlihat.

Momentum Ekspansi Gerai Ramayana
Ramayana Lestari Sentosa akan menambah 10-12 gerai baru di tahun ini

Saham BISI dan BSDE
Pada perdagangan hari ini saham BISI dan BSDE layak dicermati investor. Pergerakan indeks diperkirakan masih akan melemah terbatas di kisaran 2.550-2.605.

Dharmala Intiland Bantah Pernah Pailit
PT Dharmala Intiland Tbk (sekarang PT Intiland Development Tbk) membantah pernah dipailitkan kreditur.

Merger FREN-Smart Masih Wacana
Merger PT Mobile-8 Tbk (FREN) dengan PT Smart Telecom baru sebatas wacana. Kepemilikan Smart di FREN masih tetap 5 persen.

Panin Life Jadi Panin Finansial
RUPS Panin LIfe pada 8 Desember 2009 lalu menyetujui perubahan nama Panin LIfe Tbk (PNLF) menjaid Panin Finansial Tbk sesuai dengan surat Menteri Hukum dan HAM.

RUPSLB hari ini, UNSP Minta Persetujuan Tambah Modal
PT Bakrie Sumatera Plantations akan mengadakan RUPSLB Selasa (2/2) setelah tertunda dari seharusnya pada 15 Januari 2010.

Sumber: Detik.com (Market Flash), Inilah.com, Kontan

Update Daily Investment News

Charts: Dow Could 'Easily' Fall Toward 9,679
By: CNBC.com
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below a key support level and looks set to push lower toward 9,679 points in the short term, Royce Tostrams, technical analyst from Tostrams Groep, told CNBC Monday.After falling 2 percent in January, the Dow has fallen below the lows of December and January, which has triggered more selling pressure for the short term, Tostrams said.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35178333

How to Play Gold & Base Metals: Strategist
By: JeeYeon Park CNBC News Associate
Gold prices rose the most in four weeks on speculation that the rally in the dollar might be about to stall. Is it a good time to start looking into the precious metal? Ben Fulton, managing director at Invesco PowerShares, shared his insights.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35185375

Euro to Drop to 8-Month Low in ‘Correction’: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The euro may face a “correction” that will drive the currency to its lowest level since May after closing below support at $1.3981, Citigroup Inc. said. Europe’s common currency closed at $1.3863 on Jan. 29, below its 55-week moving average and close to the 200-week moving average of $1.3859. The European currency “typically corrects” by 10 percent before resuming gains, the bank said, citing losses in 1994 and 2004 that preceded U.S. interest-rate increases. The euro lost as much as 9 percent between Feb. 18, 2004, and April 26, 2004. The Federal Reserve in June 2004 raised benchmark borrowing costs for the first time since 2000.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aoToH3jiZXE4

JPMorgan Cuts MSCI China Forecast on Tightening Risk
(Bloomberg) -- Chinese stocks may fall further before reaching a “bottom” in April or May as money supply growth slows and policy risks increase, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ajwVW_Rf2Krw

Update Daily Investment News

Inflasi Indonesia bulan Januari 2010 0.84% (diatas prediksi 0.7%) m/m, 3.72% (diatas preediksi 3.6%) y/y, core inflation 4.43% diatas prediksi 4.40%.

Asia ‘Top’ Shows Stock Market Rally Is Over: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks may decline for months after forming a “top” that signals the end of a 10-month rally, according to Elliott Wave International Inc. Benchmark indexes across the region have completed either three- or five-wave patterns showing that their gains are over, the researcher said in its February Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast report. The rally’s duration and divergence in both momentum and sentiment also signal a downturn, it said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aF.jzlPKiTKw

Thai Stocks Set to Rebound on RSI Signal: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Thailand’s stocks are poised to rebound from the longest losing streak in more than five years as a momentum indicator signals that equities have been “oversold,” according to Tisco Securities Co. The benchmark SET Index’s 14-day relative strength index, or RSI, sank to 27.77 yesterday, the lowest since Oct. 29, 2008, according to a data compiled by Bloomberg. A drop in the RSI, a moving average based on how rapidly prices gain or retreat, below 30 indicates to analysts that prices are set to rebound.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a5i7wZqrYpTU

Euro Falls to Six-Month Low Versus Dollar on Greek Debt Concern
(Bloomberg) -- The euro fell to the lowest level in more than six months against the dollar on concern Greece’s fiscal struggles will spread. The yen dropped on speculation Japan’s central bank will act to curb its strength. The euro headed for a third week of declines versus the dollar and the yen as the cost to protect Greek government bonds from default climbed to a record and investors bet a report today will show the region’s unemployment rate rose to an 11- year high. The yen slipped against 15 of its 16 most-traded counterparts tracked by Bloomberg after Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said he is ready to act to stabilize markets.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=amXBZvyrqZdc

Goldman Sachs Tops JPMorgan as World’s Best Broker
(Bloomberg) -- The near darkness behind the bulletproof doors of a windowless Secaucus, New Jersey, warehouse is humming with tens of thousands of computers as U.S. exchanges open on a December Friday. Brokerages and trading firms, battling for the fastest access to capital markets, lease space at this Equinix Inc. center and others to place their machines as close as possible to stock exchange computers. The practice, known as co-location, is one way firms are vying to win fractions of a second -- the difference between getting a trade and missing it.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aNykT4DvHd9A

China’s Shanghai Index May Drop to 2,500, ISI Says
(Bloomberg) -- China’s benchmark stock index may fall as much as 16 percent from today’s close, as the central bank begins raising interest rates to temper inflation, said Donald Straszheim, director of China research at International Strategy & Investment Group. “I would not be at all surprised to see it at 2,500 or thereabouts by mid-year but not because it’s overheated but simply because interest rates are going to be rising, policy is going be leaning against the wind to slow inflation and to slow the economy,” Straszheim told Bloomberg Television in Hong Kong. “That’s usually bad news for equities in the short run.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aYJW.5nq5QGE

Farrell: Time For A Correction?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35142664

25-50% Market Correction in 'Month or So': Financial Pro
By: JeeYeon Park CNBC News Associate
Stocks opened higher on Friday, the final trading day of January, after the GDP report showed the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter. However, Dan Deighan, founder of Deighan Financial Advisors, and Bill Spiropoulos, chief executive of CoreStates Capital Advisors, warned investors to brace for a market correction.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35143567

Wall Street Week Ahead: US Stocks Set for a Down Year?
By: Reuters
The adage "as January goes, so goes the year" bodes ill for equity investors after the S&P 500 closed out its worst month in almost a year. This week, they will have to contend with fears of sovereign defaults and potential unpleasantness in the U.S. labor market as well. U.S. corporations have so far handily beat analysts' earnings forecasts. With heavyweights like Exxon Mobil [XOM Loading... () ] and United Parcel Service [UPS Loading... () ] set to report this week, investors will be looking for that to continue, going some way to offset the perception that political risk is on the rise.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35175189

ONG Focus - Technical
Written by Oil N' Gold |
Gold' fall from 1163 continued last week and is reached as low as 1075, breaking 1075.2 support briefly. INitial bias remains on the downside this week as long as 1105.1 minor resistance holds As noted before, whole decline from 1127.5 should be resuming and a break of 1075.0 will target 100% projection of 1227.5 to 1075.2 from 1163 at 1010.7 next. On the upside, above 1105.1 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 1163 resistance and bring fall resumption.In the bigger picture, gold has made a medium term top at 1227.5 and correction from there is likely still in progress to 100% projection of 1227.2 to 1075.2 from 1163 at 1010.7, which is close to 1000 psychological level. However, we'd expect such correction to be contained there at around 1000 psychological level and bring resumption of the whole up trend from 2008 low of 681. A break above 1163 will indicate that such correction has completed and will turn outlook bullish for another high above 1227.5. In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1460 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 structural support holds.

ONG Focus - Technical
Written by Oil N' Gold |Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's decline from 83.95 was still in progress and reached as low as 72.43 last week. With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line again, crude oil should be regathering down side momentum. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further fall should be seen to retest 68.59 support next. On the upside, though, above 75.04 will indicate that a short term bottom is formed, possibly with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Stronger rebound should then be seen. In the bigger picture, the case of medium term reversal continued to build up with fall from 83.95 extended. As noted before, whole medium term rise from 33.2 is viewed as a correction to fall from 147.27 only. Break of trend line support (now at 71/72) level will be the first signal that such rise has completed. Further break of 68.59 will support will confirm this bearish case and will target a retest on 33.2 low as correction down trend from 147.27 resumes. On the upside, though, in case of another rise, crude oil we'd continue to look of reversal signal as crude oil approaches 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level. In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that, strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.

Samples of The Most Proven Track Records & Powerful Tools of Monte Carlo

Posting on 12/10/2009, S&P 500 was hit low on The 4th Week of January 2010 as Monte Carlo's predicted & still going down further.

Monte Carlo is shown S&P 5 will hit key low in the first half of 2010 (Late February to Early March & Late June to Early July). Fundamental S&P 500 is 17% overvalued above fair value. A low probability S&P 500 will be traded below 1.000. Corporate earning are rising & unemployment peaked in Q1 2010.
















Nasdaq Composite on 10/12/2009
















By Donald W Dony. MFSi MFTA