SSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
9515 9330 9455 9230 9510 9335 9610 9290 9360 9395 9500 9570 9605
Commentary
Secara teknikal, SSIM9 berada dalam pola uptrend channel, meski ada signal negatif dari pola candle daily hanging man dan indikator teknikal stochastic daily crossing (K% & D%), MACD masih uptrend dan ADX menunjukkan penurunan, mendukung perkiraan kenaikan terbatas selama indeks diatas 9,373 (uptrend line)/8,954 (downward channel), dan berpotensi mengarah naik ke target 9629 (61.8 FE)/9937 (upper channel). Sementara support berada di 9367 (10-day MA)/9078 (20-day MA) yang seharusnya masih menopang kinerja uptrend indeks dalam beberapa hari mendatang. Perkiraan range hari ini: 9300-9650.
Rekomendasi : Buy break 9510 target 9690, stop 100p, Buy 9,300 target 9510 stop 100p, Sell 9620 target 9350. (+50p)
KSM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
177.50 175.0 178.9 174.0 178.9 176.1 179.9 173.2 174.7 176.1 179.0 180.5 181.9
Commentary
Secara teknikal, KSM9 masih berada dalam kondisi uptrend, meski karena masih berada dalam falling wedge dan menunjukkan pola candle doji star. Indikator teknikal menunjukkan signal negatif ditunjukkan meski stochastic daily menunjukkan dead cross, MACD kendati uptrend tapi terkoreksi turun, ADX terlihat flat lemah masih menunjukkan pola konsolidasi. Selama indeks ditutup diatas downtrend support line 173.67, potensi kenaikan masih terbuka. Resistance berada di 178.50 (resistance support))/179.08 (61.8 FE)/182.86 (100.0 FE). Sementara trend dapat berbalik bearish jika indeks ditutup diatas 173.67, untuk target 167.30 (downtrend line)/159.89 (100.0 FE). Perkiraan range hari ini: 175-181.00
Rekomendasi : Sell break 173.50 target 170.00 stop 100p, buy 175.60 target 179.00 stop 60p. Buy break 179.50 target 182.00. sell 182.00 target 176.0. (-100p).
HSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
18150 17600 17891 17500 18047 17578 18147 17444 17599 17874 18304 18459 18734
Commentary
Secara teknikal, minimnya chart teknikal indeks di daily chart yang menunjukkan breakout level 17,965 ke level tertinggi 18,183, menunjukkan runaway gap dan rising window dan pola candle bullish contunuation seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan ke target 18,201 (61.8 FE)/18486 (100.0 FE) jika tiadk ditutup dibawah 18,066. Perkiraan range hari Senin : 18.000-18.400.
Rekomendasi : Buy 18060 target 18400 (or closing) stop 100 p. Sell break 17820 target 17590, stop 60 poin. Sell break 17230 target 16960 stop 100p. Buy 18,250 target 17960 stop 100p (+40p)
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Friday, May 29, 2009
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil rises further to as high as 66.36 today and at this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 64.66 minor support holds. Current rally is expected to extend further to 55 weeks EMA (now at 67.29) next. On the downside, below 64.66 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But break of 59.61 support is needed to indicate that crude oil has topped out. Otherwise, further rally is still in favor.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 33.2 is still in progress with crude oil staying well inside rising channel and above 55 days EMA. There is no sign of topping yet and such rally is still in favor to continue. Nevertheless, the main question remains on whether such rebound is resuming the long term up trend or is it merely correction to the fall from 147.27. In any case, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as crude oil stays above channel support and further rally to 55 weeks EMA at 67.33 and 55 months EMA at 68.85 is still in favor even in case of pull back. However, note that failure to sustain above the mentioned EMAs, followed by break of the channel support, will suggest that rise from 33.2 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for a retest of 33.2 low.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil rises further to as high as 66.36 today and at this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 64.66 minor support holds. Current rally is expected to extend further to 55 weeks EMA (now at 67.29) next. On the downside, below 64.66 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But break of 59.61 support is needed to indicate that crude oil has topped out. Otherwise, further rally is still in favor.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 33.2 is still in progress with crude oil staying well inside rising channel and above 55 days EMA. There is no sign of topping yet and such rally is still in favor to continue. Nevertheless, the main question remains on whether such rebound is resuming the long term up trend or is it merely correction to the fall from 147.27. In any case, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as crude oil stays above channel support and further rally to 55 weeks EMA at 67.33 and 55 months EMA at 68.85 is still in favor even in case of pull back. However, note that failure to sustain above the mentioned EMAs, followed by break of the channel support, will suggest that rise from 33.2 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for a retest of 33.2 low.
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold rally resumes and reaches as high as 978.5 so far today. Break of 967.6 resistance confirms that correction from 1007.7 has completed at 865 already. And further rally should now be seen to retest 1007.7/1033.9 resistance first. On the downside, though, below 945.4 support will suggest that a short term top is formed and turn outlook neutral.
In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 1007.7 so far is consistent with the bullish case. That is, rise from 681 is resumption of long term up trend after triangle consolidation from 1033.9 completed at 681. Retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone should now be seen. Decisive break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. On the downside, while another fall cannot be ruled out for the moment, we'll hold on to the bullish case as long as 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) remains intact.
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold rally resumes and reaches as high as 978.5 so far today. Break of 967.6 resistance confirms that correction from 1007.7 has completed at 865 already. And further rally should now be seen to retest 1007.7/1033.9 resistance first. On the downside, though, below 945.4 support will suggest that a short term top is formed and turn outlook neutral.
In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 1007.7 so far is consistent with the bullish case. That is, rise from 681 is resumption of long term up trend after triangle consolidation from 1033.9 completed at 681. Retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone should now be seen. Decisive break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. On the downside, while another fall cannot be ruled out for the moment, we'll hold on to the bullish case as long as 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) remains intact.
A New Signal For Next Great Decline in Stocks
By Growth Stock Wire on May 29, 2009
It’s getting a bit tiring, waiting for the great decline that never comes. But it will. There’s a long list of reasons why. And I’ve gone over many of them in previous essays…Technical indicators have rolled over and generated intermediate-term sell signals. The major market indexes have broken down from bearish rising-wedge formations. Insider selling is at the highest level since October 2007. And investor sentiment, a contrary indicator, is off the charts.
But the market hasn’t broken down. Not yet, anyway. Oh sure, the S&P 500 (^GSPC: 906.83 0.00 0.00%) has pulled back a bit after topping out at 930 three weeks ago. But a 3% decline following a 36% rally is a freckle on the market’s bullish complexion.It’s taken longer than I thought. But by the look of the following chart, the drop will happen soon…
This is an updated chart of the S&P 500. You can see how it broke the bearish rising wedge (in blue) to the downside and how it has been bouncing back and forth between support and resistance (in red) ever since.Notice, however, the chart on the bottom. This displays Bollinger Band width. Bollinger Bands are used to compare volatility and relative price levels. In short, a large distance between the Bollinger Bands indicates high volatility. A narrow distance indicates low volatility.Since volatility is cyclical - meaning periods of high volatility are followed by periods of low volatility and vice versa - narrow Bollinger Band width often precedes big moves in the market.
Today, the width is about as narrow as it has been at any other time during the past year. The market is storing up energy for its next big move. Given the numerous bearish technical indicators, my bet is that move will be to the downside.My downside target for the S&P 500 remains about 800. We’ll know stocks are headed there once the index breaks through support at about 875, and once the Bollinger Band width chart turns up and starts to move higher.
It’s getting a bit tiring, waiting for the great decline that never comes. But it will. There’s a long list of reasons why. And I’ve gone over many of them in previous essays…Technical indicators have rolled over and generated intermediate-term sell signals. The major market indexes have broken down from bearish rising-wedge formations. Insider selling is at the highest level since October 2007. And investor sentiment, a contrary indicator, is off the charts.
But the market hasn’t broken down. Not yet, anyway. Oh sure, the S&P 500 (^GSPC: 906.83 0.00 0.00%) has pulled back a bit after topping out at 930 three weeks ago. But a 3% decline following a 36% rally is a freckle on the market’s bullish complexion.It’s taken longer than I thought. But by the look of the following chart, the drop will happen soon…
This is an updated chart of the S&P 500. You can see how it broke the bearish rising wedge (in blue) to the downside and how it has been bouncing back and forth between support and resistance (in red) ever since.Notice, however, the chart on the bottom. This displays Bollinger Band width. Bollinger Bands are used to compare volatility and relative price levels. In short, a large distance between the Bollinger Bands indicates high volatility. A narrow distance indicates low volatility.Since volatility is cyclical - meaning periods of high volatility are followed by periods of low volatility and vice versa - narrow Bollinger Band width often precedes big moves in the market.
Today, the width is about as narrow as it has been at any other time during the past year. The market is storing up energy for its next big move. Given the numerous bearish technical indicators, my bet is that move will be to the downside.My downside target for the S&P 500 remains about 800. We’ll know stocks are headed there once the index breaks through support at about 875, and once the Bollinger Band width chart turns up and starts to move higher.
Asian Currencies Decline This Week, Led by Won, Peso, Ringgit, Rupiah
(Bloomberg) -- Asian currencies fell this week, led by South Korea’s won, as North Korea’s nuclear arms test and threat of military strikes prompted investors to seek refuge in the dollar. The Philippine peso and Malaysia’s ringgit weakened after the two nations reported worse-than-expected economic data for the first quarter. South Korean Vice Finance Minister Hur Kyung Wook said today the government is “closely monitoring” financial markets after the North conducted a nuclear weapons test on May 25 and launched a series of short-range missiles. The won fell 0.6 percent this week to 1,255.25 per dollar in Seoul, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The peso declined 0.6 percent to 47.34 and the ringgit dropped 0.7 percent to 3.4950.
The Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index, which tracks the region’s 10 most-active currencies excluding the yen, slipped 0.2 percent this week. It reached a seven-month high on May 22. The yen tumbled 1.6 percent to 96.34 per dollar as rising yields on U.S. Treasuries and signs a global recession is easing prompted Japanese investors to send more funds abroad in search of better returns. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasuries was 3.61 percent, about half a percentage point higher than at the end of April. Japan today reported its biggest increase in industrial output in 56 years and a U.S. report earlier this week showed consumer confidence there jumped the most in six years.
Deficit, Economic Slump
Indonesia’s rupiah fell 0.5 percent this week to 10,290 per dollar on speculation importers increased dollar purchases to settle bills and debt payments. “The rupiah was weaker due to the month-end demand for dollars from importers,” said Joanna Tan , an economist at Forecast Pte in Singapore. “Regional sentiment this week is also not too positive as North Korea’s nuclear test triggered some risk aversion.” The rupiah may trade between 10,300 and 10,400 next week, Tan said. The Philippine peso dropped on concern public finances will deteriorate as the economy contracts. Economic Planning Secretary Ralph Recto said today the budget deficit may exceed 250 billion pesos ($5.3 billion) this year, more than the official 199 billion peso estimate and 2002’s record shortfall of 211 billion pesos.The central bank yesterday lowered its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a 17-year low of 4.25 percent after a government report showed the economy shrank in the first quarter at the fastest pace since at least 1994.“Peso weakness has been more pronounced given our outlook,” said Marcelo Ayes, a senior vice president at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. in Manila.
Shrinking Economy
Malaysia’s ringgit completed a weekly decline after the central bank on May 27 said gross domestic product shrank 6.2 percent from a year earlier in the first quarter, more than the 3.9 percent decline predicted by economists in a Bloomberg News survey.
The economy may contract as much as 5 percent this year, Prime Minister Najib Razak announced yesterday. The government estimated in March that GDP would slide no more than 1 percent.Elsewhere, the Singapore dollar dropped 0.4 percent to S$1.4472. China’s yuan declined 0.07 percent to 6.8281, the biggest slide in two months, before the nation’s financial markets closed for a public holiday yesterday and today.
India Beats Estimate
India’s rupee rose 0.8 percent, trimming losses this week to 0.4 percent, after the economy expanded more than expected in the first quarter. The currency gained 6 percent in May, Asia’s best performer excluding the yen. Asia’s third-largest economy expanded 5.8 percent last quarter from a year earlier, beating the median 5 percent forecast by economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee this week pledged to boost spending in July’s budget, noting that the economy is already showing “some signs” of revival from interest-rate cuts and stimulus spending.Thailand’s baht was little changed for the week at 34.36 per dollar. The currency appreciated 2.8 percent this month, the third-biggest gain among Asia’s 10-most active currencies, as overseas investors bought $230 million more Thai shares than they sold. The central bank has “intervened” in the foreign-exchange market to stabilize the baht, Amara Sriphayak, a Bank of Thailand official, said today in Bangkok. The Bank of Thailand “has managed the baht to curb its volatility,” she said, without detailing the currency purchases or sales.
The Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index, which tracks the region’s 10 most-active currencies excluding the yen, slipped 0.2 percent this week. It reached a seven-month high on May 22. The yen tumbled 1.6 percent to 96.34 per dollar as rising yields on U.S. Treasuries and signs a global recession is easing prompted Japanese investors to send more funds abroad in search of better returns. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasuries was 3.61 percent, about half a percentage point higher than at the end of April. Japan today reported its biggest increase in industrial output in 56 years and a U.S. report earlier this week showed consumer confidence there jumped the most in six years.
Deficit, Economic Slump
Indonesia’s rupiah fell 0.5 percent this week to 10,290 per dollar on speculation importers increased dollar purchases to settle bills and debt payments. “The rupiah was weaker due to the month-end demand for dollars from importers,” said Joanna Tan , an economist at Forecast Pte in Singapore. “Regional sentiment this week is also not too positive as North Korea’s nuclear test triggered some risk aversion.” The rupiah may trade between 10,300 and 10,400 next week, Tan said. The Philippine peso dropped on concern public finances will deteriorate as the economy contracts. Economic Planning Secretary Ralph Recto said today the budget deficit may exceed 250 billion pesos ($5.3 billion) this year, more than the official 199 billion peso estimate and 2002’s record shortfall of 211 billion pesos.The central bank yesterday lowered its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a 17-year low of 4.25 percent after a government report showed the economy shrank in the first quarter at the fastest pace since at least 1994.“Peso weakness has been more pronounced given our outlook,” said Marcelo Ayes, a senior vice president at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. in Manila.
Shrinking Economy
Malaysia’s ringgit completed a weekly decline after the central bank on May 27 said gross domestic product shrank 6.2 percent from a year earlier in the first quarter, more than the 3.9 percent decline predicted by economists in a Bloomberg News survey.
The economy may contract as much as 5 percent this year, Prime Minister Najib Razak announced yesterday. The government estimated in March that GDP would slide no more than 1 percent.Elsewhere, the Singapore dollar dropped 0.4 percent to S$1.4472. China’s yuan declined 0.07 percent to 6.8281, the biggest slide in two months, before the nation’s financial markets closed for a public holiday yesterday and today.
India Beats Estimate
India’s rupee rose 0.8 percent, trimming losses this week to 0.4 percent, after the economy expanded more than expected in the first quarter. The currency gained 6 percent in May, Asia’s best performer excluding the yen. Asia’s third-largest economy expanded 5.8 percent last quarter from a year earlier, beating the median 5 percent forecast by economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee this week pledged to boost spending in July’s budget, noting that the economy is already showing “some signs” of revival from interest-rate cuts and stimulus spending.Thailand’s baht was little changed for the week at 34.36 per dollar. The currency appreciated 2.8 percent this month, the third-biggest gain among Asia’s 10-most active currencies, as overseas investors bought $230 million more Thai shares than they sold. The central bank has “intervened” in the foreign-exchange market to stabilize the baht, Amara Sriphayak, a Bank of Thailand official, said today in Bangkok. The Bank of Thailand “has managed the baht to curb its volatility,” she said, without detailing the currency purchases or sales.
Indonesian Stocks Are Upgraded to ‘Overweight’ at BNP
Bloomberg) -- Indonesian stocks were raised to “overweight” from “neutral” at BNP Paribas SA, which cited record-low interest rates, a resilient economy and better-than- expected earnings outlook. The Jakarta Composite index may rise 16 percent to 2,200 based on a 12-month target, BNP said. PT Bank Danamon Indonesia, PT Astra International, PT Indofood Sukses Makmur and PT Ciputra Property are among its preferred stocks, BNP said. The measure closed at 1,892.84 yesterday, a 40 percent gain this year. BNP’s rating upgrade follows those by JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Credit Suisse Group after a legislative election in April strengthened President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s hold in parliament and raised expectations he will boost economic growth. Southeast Asia’s biggest economy expanded 4.4 percent in the first quarter, the fastest pace in the region.
“The democratic process has become entrenched, which has resulted in a stronger currency and a re-rating in both the bond and equity markets,” BNP’s Jakarta-based analyst Elvira Tjandrawinata wrote in a note today. “The economy is one of the most resilient in the region.” The Indonesian rupiah has risen 7.2 percent this year, helping to ease inflation to a 16-month low in April. The central bank has cut its key interest rate six times since December to 7.25 percent, the lowest since the measure was introduced in July 2005. Slowing inflation supports purchasing power while lower borrowing costs may spur lending. The Jakarta Composite rose 0.2 percent to 1,897.34 as of 11:55 a.m. local time.
Rating Upgrades
JPMorgan, Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank AG raised their ratings on Indonesia to “overweight” earlier this month. The stock index fell by a record 51 percent last year after the global credit crisis prompted investors to sell assets in high- yielding markets including Indonesia. “Increased risk appetite among investors and a lack of better investment alternatives has driven local investors back” to the equity and bond markets, BNP’s Tjandrawinata said. A “correction” in the stock market may be “shallow” as overseas investors are “still waiting on the sidelines for a dip.” Bank Danamon, partly owned by Temasek Holdings Pte and Deutsche Bank AG, and Astra International, Indonesia’s biggest auto retailer, will benefit from falling interest rates, BNP said. PT Astra Agro Lestari, a palm-oil producer, and PT Indo Tambangraya Megah, a coal miner, are the preferred stocks in the commodity industry, the brokerage said.
Expansion, Contractions
The International Monetary Fund predicts Indonesia’s $433 billion economy will post the only growth this year among Southeast Asia’s five-biggest economies. The IMF last month forecast a 2.5 percent expansion for the nation, zero growth for the Philippines, and contractions for Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. Morgan Stanley, in a note yesterday, almost doubled its economic growth forecast for Indonesia to 3.7 percent from 1.9 percent, citing gains in commodity prices and diminished political risks. The government expects growth to slow to 4.5 percent this year from 6.1 percent in 2008 as the global recession hampers exports and investments.Still, “given that Indonesia is as politically stable as it has ever been, we expect both domestic and foreign investors to continue growing,” Tjandrawinata said.Yudhoyono will seek re-election in July. He named as his running mate former central bank Governor Boediono, who led the nation’s past six interest rate cuts. A poll conducted by the Indonesia Survey Institute between April 27 and May 3 showed 70 percent of the 2,014 respondents favored the pair, raising optimism economic policies will be maintained should they win.
“The democratic process has become entrenched, which has resulted in a stronger currency and a re-rating in both the bond and equity markets,” BNP’s Jakarta-based analyst Elvira Tjandrawinata wrote in a note today. “The economy is one of the most resilient in the region.” The Indonesian rupiah has risen 7.2 percent this year, helping to ease inflation to a 16-month low in April. The central bank has cut its key interest rate six times since December to 7.25 percent, the lowest since the measure was introduced in July 2005. Slowing inflation supports purchasing power while lower borrowing costs may spur lending. The Jakarta Composite rose 0.2 percent to 1,897.34 as of 11:55 a.m. local time.
Rating Upgrades
JPMorgan, Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank AG raised their ratings on Indonesia to “overweight” earlier this month. The stock index fell by a record 51 percent last year after the global credit crisis prompted investors to sell assets in high- yielding markets including Indonesia. “Increased risk appetite among investors and a lack of better investment alternatives has driven local investors back” to the equity and bond markets, BNP’s Tjandrawinata said. A “correction” in the stock market may be “shallow” as overseas investors are “still waiting on the sidelines for a dip.” Bank Danamon, partly owned by Temasek Holdings Pte and Deutsche Bank AG, and Astra International, Indonesia’s biggest auto retailer, will benefit from falling interest rates, BNP said. PT Astra Agro Lestari, a palm-oil producer, and PT Indo Tambangraya Megah, a coal miner, are the preferred stocks in the commodity industry, the brokerage said.
Expansion, Contractions
The International Monetary Fund predicts Indonesia’s $433 billion economy will post the only growth this year among Southeast Asia’s five-biggest economies. The IMF last month forecast a 2.5 percent expansion for the nation, zero growth for the Philippines, and contractions for Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. Morgan Stanley, in a note yesterday, almost doubled its economic growth forecast for Indonesia to 3.7 percent from 1.9 percent, citing gains in commodity prices and diminished political risks. The government expects growth to slow to 4.5 percent this year from 6.1 percent in 2008 as the global recession hampers exports and investments.Still, “given that Indonesia is as politically stable as it has ever been, we expect both domestic and foreign investors to continue growing,” Tjandrawinata said.Yudhoyono will seek re-election in July. He named as his running mate former central bank Governor Boediono, who led the nation’s past six interest rate cuts. A poll conducted by the Indonesia Survey Institute between April 27 and May 3 showed 70 percent of the 2,014 respondents favored the pair, raising optimism economic policies will be maintained should they win.
Palm Oil on Track for First Weekly Gain in Three on Supply Risk
(Bloomberg) -- Palm oil futures advanced, heading for the first weekly gain in three, on speculation vegetable oil supplies won’t keep pace with rising demand. The oil used in cooking and biofuel has gained as soybean crops decline in Brazil and Argentina, the biggest producers after the U.S., and inventories in the U.S. are forecast to reach a five-year low. The price of palm oil, a substitute for soybean oil, tends to rise when there is a soybean shortage.“The South American soybean harvest continues to disappoint, and we now expect Argentina production to decline 28 percent year-on-year in 2009 and Brazil to be down 4 percent,” Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. analysts Patrick Tiah and Nikhil Bhandari said in a report today. “Meanwhile, India’s edible oil demand has been stronger than expected due to low prices.”
Palm oil for August delivery on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange increased 0.7 percent to 2,523 ringgit ($721) a metric ton at the 12:30 p.m. local-time trading break, up from 2,521 ringgit at the end of last week. The oil is headed for the first monthly decline in seven, paring this year’s rally, amid concerns that prices may have run up too quickly. Still, the outlook is “bullish” given the prospect of soybean shortages and dwindling inventory in Indonesia and Malaysia, Indonesian Palm Oil Board Deputy Chairman Derom Bangun said at a conference in Jakarta today.“The price is bullish in the medium term,” he said, forecasting a gain to “around $800 per ton,” including costs and insurance, in Rotterdam. Palm oil in Rotterdam has gained 41 percent to $760 a ton this year.
Stockpile Concerns
Bangun raised concerns about palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, the largest producer after Indonesia. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board said April stockpiles fell to 1,292,303 tons, down 5.4 percent from the previous month and the lowest level since June 2007. Inventory in Indonesia is also shrinking, he said, without giving the volume. Indonesia does not release monthly data. Soybeans traded in Chicago have gained 21 percent this year and may climb as high as $14 a bushel by October as Brazil raises the use of crops for energy, Dorab Mistry, director of Godrej International Ltd., said yesterday. That may spur palm oil to advance to 3,000 ringgit a ton within a month, he said. India may import 8.5 million tons of edible oils in the year ending October, compared with 6.3 million tons in the previous 12 months, of which 5.3 million tons will be palm oil, Mistry said.
Palm oil for August delivery on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange increased 0.7 percent to 2,523 ringgit ($721) a metric ton at the 12:30 p.m. local-time trading break, up from 2,521 ringgit at the end of last week. The oil is headed for the first monthly decline in seven, paring this year’s rally, amid concerns that prices may have run up too quickly. Still, the outlook is “bullish” given the prospect of soybean shortages and dwindling inventory in Indonesia and Malaysia, Indonesian Palm Oil Board Deputy Chairman Derom Bangun said at a conference in Jakarta today.“The price is bullish in the medium term,” he said, forecasting a gain to “around $800 per ton,” including costs and insurance, in Rotterdam. Palm oil in Rotterdam has gained 41 percent to $760 a ton this year.
Stockpile Concerns
Bangun raised concerns about palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, the largest producer after Indonesia. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board said April stockpiles fell to 1,292,303 tons, down 5.4 percent from the previous month and the lowest level since June 2007. Inventory in Indonesia is also shrinking, he said, without giving the volume. Indonesia does not release monthly data. Soybeans traded in Chicago have gained 21 percent this year and may climb as high as $14 a bushel by October as Brazil raises the use of crops for energy, Dorab Mistry, director of Godrej International Ltd., said yesterday. That may spur palm oil to advance to 3,000 ringgit a ton within a month, he said. India may import 8.5 million tons of edible oils in the year ending October, compared with 6.3 million tons in the previous 12 months, of which 5.3 million tons will be palm oil, Mistry said.
Daily FX Technical Commentary
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank
EURUSD
Comment: Bouncing neatly from the 38% Fibonacci retracement and the 9-day moving average sneaking up to 1.3790. There is a small chance of getting a weekly close above 1.4100 this week which should increase bullish momentum although serious stops are unlikely to be triggered until we see a close above 1.4200. Strategy: Buy at 1.4000, adding to 1.3900; stop well below 1.3790. Short term target 1.4050, then a lot more with a first measured target at 1.4200 then 1.4550.Direction of Trade: →↗
Support Resistance
1.3925 " 1.4015
1.3885 1.4051**
1.3790* 1.4125
1.3725 1.4200*
1.365 1.43
GBPUSD
Comment: Pushing higher again where a weekly close above 1.6100 will probably set off another round of serious short-covering. Open interest is still roughly half the 2007/2008 peaks. Implied volatility is likely to trade higher next week. Strategy: Buy at 1.6035, adding to 1.5950; stop well below 1.5750. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.6100 for 1.6200 short term, then 1.6500.Direction of Trade: →↗
Support Resistance
1.5918 " 1.6044
1.5852 1.6087/1.6100*
1.5757 1.6200*
1.57 1.63
1.5650* 1.64
USDJPY
Comment: Difficult and messy as we push into the middle of a very large Ichimoku 'cloud'. Hopefully the rally will stall around the 26-day average at 96.83, under yesterday's high at 97.24. Note that momentum is neutral and open interest is just off its lowest in five years. Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 96.50, adding to 97.00; stop above 97.35. First target 96.00, then 95.00Direction of Trade: →
Support Resistance
96.25 " 97.05
96 97.24*
95.5 97.55
95.24 97.85
94.95* 98.35
EURUSD
Comment: Bouncing neatly from the 38% Fibonacci retracement and the 9-day moving average sneaking up to 1.3790. There is a small chance of getting a weekly close above 1.4100 this week which should increase bullish momentum although serious stops are unlikely to be triggered until we see a close above 1.4200. Strategy: Buy at 1.4000, adding to 1.3900; stop well below 1.3790. Short term target 1.4050, then a lot more with a first measured target at 1.4200 then 1.4550.Direction of Trade: →↗
Support Resistance
1.3925 " 1.4015
1.3885 1.4051**
1.3790* 1.4125
1.3725 1.4200*
1.365 1.43
GBPUSD
Comment: Pushing higher again where a weekly close above 1.6100 will probably set off another round of serious short-covering. Open interest is still roughly half the 2007/2008 peaks. Implied volatility is likely to trade higher next week. Strategy: Buy at 1.6035, adding to 1.5950; stop well below 1.5750. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.6100 for 1.6200 short term, then 1.6500.Direction of Trade: →↗
Support Resistance
1.5918 " 1.6044
1.5852 1.6087/1.6100*
1.5757 1.6200*
1.57 1.63
1.5650* 1.64
USDJPY
Comment: Difficult and messy as we push into the middle of a very large Ichimoku 'cloud'. Hopefully the rally will stall around the 26-day average at 96.83, under yesterday's high at 97.24. Note that momentum is neutral and open interest is just off its lowest in five years. Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 96.50, adding to 97.00; stop above 97.35. First target 96.00, then 95.00Direction of Trade: →
Support Resistance
96.25 " 97.05
96 97.24*
95.5 97.55
95.24 97.85
94.95* 98.35
Spekulasi GDP Q1 AS Picu Pelemahan Dolar AS
USD Index 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low EUR-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
80.24 89.62 (04/03) 79.63 (02/01) 1.3933 1.4055 (02/01) 1.2459 (04/03)
Dolar AS melemah di sesi Asia hari ini, terhadap mata uang Eropa dan Asia Pasifik, setelah pasar saham Wall Street semalam menguat yang berimbas positif kepada pasar saham regional Asia dan kenaikan harga minyak yang mencapai level tertinggi $ 64.89/barel setelah OPEC mempertahankan output dan laporan inventory minyak AS merosot tajam di pekan lalu, mendorong investor memburu aset yang beresiko seperti saham dan komoditi. Dolar juga mendapatkan sentimen negatif dari laporan National Pension Services Korea Selatan mengatakan mereka akan memangkas bobot kepemilikan Treasury AS. Dolar mendapatkan tekanan terhadap major setelah data ekonomi AS: Jobless Claims terkoreksi ke 623K di pekan lalu, Durable Goods Order meningkat 1.9%, New Home Sales meningkat 0.3% di bulan April, menurunkan daya tarik dolar AS sebagai mata uang safe haven di saat terjadi krisis. Meski potensi pelemahan dolar terbatas mejelang rilisan revisi data GDP Q1 yang diperkirakan membaik ke -5.5% dari -6.1%, berkat investment dan net export meningkat lebih dari perkiraan. Diikuti Chicago PMI bulan Juni dan University of Michigan Final yang diperkirakan lebih baik dari periode sebelumnya dapat memberikan tekanan kepada dolar, berkat perkiraan pemulihan ekonomi global tengah berlangsung.
Euro mengalami penguatan di sesi Asia hari ini, berkat sejumlah sentimen negatif yang menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang dolar dan mendorong investor memburu aset yang memiliki suku bunga yang lebih tinggi dan beresiko seperti saham dan komoditi. Kenaikan harga saham global dan harga minyak yang telah mencapai $ 64.89/barel di sesi Asia hari ini (berkat aksi OPEC pertahankan output dan laporan inventory AS anjlok) masih memberikan keuntungan kepada euro dolar pada akhir pekan ini. Euro dolar juga menguat berkat spekulasi bank sentral Eropa akan menghindari pangkas suku bunga untuk tidak menaikkan inflasi. Imbas kuatnya data produksi industri Jepang di bulan April dan laporan National Pension Services Korea Selatan mempertimbangkan akan memangkas kepemilikan Treasury AS, ikut berperan melemahkan dolar AS dan memberikan keuntungan kepada euro. Sementara prediksi penurunan inflasi euro bulan Mei yang dirilis hari ini dan menjelang rilisan data revisi GDP Q1, Chicago PMI, U Michigan sentiment diperkirakan lebih baik dari periode sebelumnya, dapat meningkatkan permintaan untuk euro terhadap dolar, berkat meredanya kekhawatiran terhadap resesi ekonomi global.
USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
95.38 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.5925 1.6085 (27/05) 1.3502 (23/01)
Yen menguat dari level terendah 2 pekan terhadap dolar dan menguat terhadap euro setelah laporan Industrial Production Jepang mengalami kenaikan terbesar dalam 6 tahun, mendorong spekulasi dana akan masuk kembali ke pasar aset Jepang. Yen masih melanjutkan penguatan bulanan yang kedua terhadap dolar, dan memangkas penurunan terbesar dalam 8 pekan kemarin, setelah laporan Menteri Perdagangan Jepang bahwa perusahaan lokal berencana untuk meningkatkan produksi. Yen juga menguat terhadap dolar setelah Natonal Pension Services Korea Selatan akan memangkas bobot kepemilikan Treasury AS. Laporan Industrial Production Jepang meningkat 5.2% di bulan April, CPI national terkontraksi lebih lanjut -0.7% di bulan Mei dari -0.1%, Household spending membaik -0.1% di bulan April dari -0.6%, Unemployment meningkat ke 5.2% dari 5.0%. kondisi tersebut menunjukkan “the worst may be over” untuk ekonomi Jepang. Meski potensi penguatan yen terbatas terhadap dolar sebelum rilisan data ekonomi dari Euro dan AS yang mungkin menunjukkan pemulihan ekonomi global dan dapat melemahkan yen lebih lanjut.
Pound sterling melanjutkan penguatannya terhadap dolar dan yen di sesi perdagangan Asia hari ini, setelah pasar saham global dan harga komoditi minyak yang telah mencapai level tertinggi 7-bulan, mendorong investor memburu aset yang beresiko dan aset yang memiliki suku bunga yang lebih tinggi. Meski laju penguatan pound dibatasi oleh sentimen negatif dari komentar anggota MPC BOE David Blachflower yang meragukan ekonomi Inggris akan tumbuh di tahun ini dan tahun mendatang. Pound juga sempat terpukul oleh laporan dari Confederation of British Industry menunjukkan Retail Sales Inggris anjlok di bulan Mei (net 17% melaporkan penurunan) dan bulan depan masih akan sulit untuk toko-toko karena pengangguran meningkat, memberikan signal resesi masih belum berakhir. Sementara prediksi Morgan Stanley bahwa dolar AS mungkin akan terkoreksi 10% untuk basis bobot perdagangan di akhir tahun depan, mendorong trader untuk antisipasi penguatan mata uang yuan China. Meski potensi penguatan pound terbatas sebelum rilisa data ekonomi AS hari ini.
USD-CHF 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
1.0881 1.1965 (12/03) 1.0617 (02/01) 0.7845 0.7890 (27/05) 0.6248 (02/02)
Swiss franc menguat terhadap dolar di sesi Asia hari ini, setelah pasar saham Wall Street semalam menguat berimbas positif kepada pasar saham regional Asia dan kenaikan harga minyak yang mencapai level tertinggi $ 64.89/barel setelah OPEC mempertahankan output dan laporan inventory minyak AS merosot tajam di pekan lalu, mendorong investor memburu aset yang beresiko seperti saham dan komoditi. Swiss franc mendapatkan sentimen negatif dari laporan National Pension Services Korea Selatan mengatakan mereka akan memangkas bobot kepemilikan Treasury AS. Swiss franc menguat setelah data ekspor Swiss meningkat 8.3% di bulan April, diikuti data ekonomi AS: Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Order, New Home Sales tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraab, menurunkan daya tarik dolar AS sebagai mata uang safe haven. Meski potensi penguatan CHF terbatas mejelang rilisan revisi data GDP Q1 diperkirakan membaik ke -5.5% dari -6.1%, berkat investment dan net export. Chicago PMI bulan Juni dan University of Michigan Final diperkirakan lebih baik dari periode sebelumnya dapat memberikan tekanan kepada dolar, berkat perkiraan pemulihan ekonomi global da Swiss tengah berlangsung.
Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) menguat di sesi Asia hari ini, berpotensi mengalami penguatan untuk bulan ke-3, karena keyakinan investor untuk pemulihan ekonomi gobal mendorong investor memburu aset yang memiliki suku bunga yang lebih tinggi. Aussie dan kiwi menguat pada pekan ini terhadap dolar setelah Standard & Poors menaikkan pandangan rating hutang Selandia Baru menjadi stabil dari netral dan meningkatnya kekhawatiran terhadap rating kredit AAA milik AS. Harga komoditi yang mencakup lebih dari setengah ekspor negara Selatan Pasifik, meningkat 12 persen di bulan ini, kenaikan tertinggi sejak 1974. Aussie menguat ke tertinggi 0.7916 dan kiwi menguat ke tertinggi $ 0.6248 di sesi Asia hari ini. Aussie menguat 10.5% terhadap dolar di bulan ini dan menguat 8 persen menjadi 60.42 yen. Laporan Reserve bank of Australia bahwa pinjaman bank di Australia meningkat di bulan April untuk bulan ke-4 memberikan bukti bahwa rendahnya suku bunga dan stimulus dari pemerintah telah meningkatkan permntaan. Laporan Home Building Approval Selandia Baru meningkat 11.2% di bulan April.
Technical Analysis
(+130p-20p, closed at 1,4000) EUR-USD menunjukkan signal positif dari pola candle bullish harami dalam pola uptrend channel seharusnya masih memberikan momentum kenaikan kepada euro hari ini. Indikator teknikal MACD, stochastic masih uptrend kendati overbought, meski ADX terkoreksi turun yang memberikan indikasi bahwa potensi kenaikan euro dapat terbatas pada hari ini. Perpotongan 20-day MA (1.3454) & 200-day MA (1.3376) menunjukkan golden cross sejak hari Rabu, memberikan support kepada euro dolar. Support berada di 1.3761 (support line). Euro dalam proses koreksi wave minute 5 dalam minor C zig zag - wave intermediate 4 menunjukkan potensi toppish di kisaran $ 1.4175/1,4234 (upper channel). Buy 1.3940 & buy break 1.4050 target di 1.4175 stop 50p, sell 1.4175 target 1.4040 stop 30p, Sell break 1.3900 target 1.3790 stop 50p.
(+70p at 95.40) USDJPY masih menunjukkan pola head & shoulder dan downtrend channel, dimana kegagalan menembus 97.39 (upper channel) dapat memberikan tekanan kepada jpy target neckline H&S di 93.81. Sementara signal positif muncul dari pola candle bullish continuation, indikator ADX koreksi turun di saat terjadi rebound, meski MACD dan Stochastic menunjukkan oversold, memperlihat potensi kenaikan terbatas. Jika ditutup dibawah level 97.21 (200-day MA & high kemarin) 94.62/93.51 (downward channel). Resistance berada di 97.34/98.58 (downtrend line). Sell 97.35 target 96.00 stop 97.90, sell break 96.00 target 95.00 stop 50p. Sell 98.50 target 96.00 stop 50p. Buy 95.15 target 96.00 stop 94.60.
(-40-60p). GBP-USD menunjukkan trend bullish karena berada dalam uptrend channel dalam diagonal triangle meski menunjukkan pola candle tri star yang menunjukkan potensi revesal meski Indikator MACD, Stochastic uptrend, kendati ADX menunjukkan koreksi penurunan, volume menunjukkan kenaikan, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas hari ini. Crossingnya 10-day MA (1.5808) & 200-day MA (1,5494), dapat menopang GBP, selama bertahan di atas 1.5554 (support line) target 1.6088 (50%FR)/1.6271 (upper channel). Analisa EW menunjukkan proses wave motive minute 5 dalam wave impulse 3. Buy break 1.6090 target 1.6240 stop 50p. Sell break 1.5960 target 1.5850 stop 50p. Sell 1.6240 target 1.6090 stop 50p. Buy 1.5990 target 1.61 stop 35p.
AUD-USD mendapatkan signal positif dari pola candle piercing bullish kemarin didukung oleh ADX, stochastic dan MACD yang masih uptrend, seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan aud hari ini. Meski trend masih bullish selama bertahan di atas 0.7814 (support line di rising wedge), untuk target 0.7951 (upper channel)/0.8003 (61.8 FE). Elliot wave menunjukkan wave impulse minor 3 dalam koreksi wave intermediate C dalam primary B. Buy 0.7865 target 0.8000 stop 50p, Sell break 0.7810 target 0.7710 (closing) stop 45p, sell 0.8000 target 0.7860 stop 60p. Buy break 0.7950 target 0.8000.
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80.24 89.62 (04/03) 79.63 (02/01) 1.3933 1.4055 (02/01) 1.2459 (04/03)
Dolar AS melemah di sesi Asia hari ini, terhadap mata uang Eropa dan Asia Pasifik, setelah pasar saham Wall Street semalam menguat yang berimbas positif kepada pasar saham regional Asia dan kenaikan harga minyak yang mencapai level tertinggi $ 64.89/barel setelah OPEC mempertahankan output dan laporan inventory minyak AS merosot tajam di pekan lalu, mendorong investor memburu aset yang beresiko seperti saham dan komoditi. Dolar juga mendapatkan sentimen negatif dari laporan National Pension Services Korea Selatan mengatakan mereka akan memangkas bobot kepemilikan Treasury AS. Dolar mendapatkan tekanan terhadap major setelah data ekonomi AS: Jobless Claims terkoreksi ke 623K di pekan lalu, Durable Goods Order meningkat 1.9%, New Home Sales meningkat 0.3% di bulan April, menurunkan daya tarik dolar AS sebagai mata uang safe haven di saat terjadi krisis. Meski potensi pelemahan dolar terbatas mejelang rilisan revisi data GDP Q1 yang diperkirakan membaik ke -5.5% dari -6.1%, berkat investment dan net export meningkat lebih dari perkiraan. Diikuti Chicago PMI bulan Juni dan University of Michigan Final yang diperkirakan lebih baik dari periode sebelumnya dapat memberikan tekanan kepada dolar, berkat perkiraan pemulihan ekonomi global tengah berlangsung.
Euro mengalami penguatan di sesi Asia hari ini, berkat sejumlah sentimen negatif yang menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang dolar dan mendorong investor memburu aset yang memiliki suku bunga yang lebih tinggi dan beresiko seperti saham dan komoditi. Kenaikan harga saham global dan harga minyak yang telah mencapai $ 64.89/barel di sesi Asia hari ini (berkat aksi OPEC pertahankan output dan laporan inventory AS anjlok) masih memberikan keuntungan kepada euro dolar pada akhir pekan ini. Euro dolar juga menguat berkat spekulasi bank sentral Eropa akan menghindari pangkas suku bunga untuk tidak menaikkan inflasi. Imbas kuatnya data produksi industri Jepang di bulan April dan laporan National Pension Services Korea Selatan mempertimbangkan akan memangkas kepemilikan Treasury AS, ikut berperan melemahkan dolar AS dan memberikan keuntungan kepada euro. Sementara prediksi penurunan inflasi euro bulan Mei yang dirilis hari ini dan menjelang rilisan data revisi GDP Q1, Chicago PMI, U Michigan sentiment diperkirakan lebih baik dari periode sebelumnya, dapat meningkatkan permintaan untuk euro terhadap dolar, berkat meredanya kekhawatiran terhadap resesi ekonomi global.
USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
95.38 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.5925 1.6085 (27/05) 1.3502 (23/01)
Yen menguat dari level terendah 2 pekan terhadap dolar dan menguat terhadap euro setelah laporan Industrial Production Jepang mengalami kenaikan terbesar dalam 6 tahun, mendorong spekulasi dana akan masuk kembali ke pasar aset Jepang. Yen masih melanjutkan penguatan bulanan yang kedua terhadap dolar, dan memangkas penurunan terbesar dalam 8 pekan kemarin, setelah laporan Menteri Perdagangan Jepang bahwa perusahaan lokal berencana untuk meningkatkan produksi. Yen juga menguat terhadap dolar setelah Natonal Pension Services Korea Selatan akan memangkas bobot kepemilikan Treasury AS. Laporan Industrial Production Jepang meningkat 5.2% di bulan April, CPI national terkontraksi lebih lanjut -0.7% di bulan Mei dari -0.1%, Household spending membaik -0.1% di bulan April dari -0.6%, Unemployment meningkat ke 5.2% dari 5.0%. kondisi tersebut menunjukkan “the worst may be over” untuk ekonomi Jepang. Meski potensi penguatan yen terbatas terhadap dolar sebelum rilisan data ekonomi dari Euro dan AS yang mungkin menunjukkan pemulihan ekonomi global dan dapat melemahkan yen lebih lanjut.
Pound sterling melanjutkan penguatannya terhadap dolar dan yen di sesi perdagangan Asia hari ini, setelah pasar saham global dan harga komoditi minyak yang telah mencapai level tertinggi 7-bulan, mendorong investor memburu aset yang beresiko dan aset yang memiliki suku bunga yang lebih tinggi. Meski laju penguatan pound dibatasi oleh sentimen negatif dari komentar anggota MPC BOE David Blachflower yang meragukan ekonomi Inggris akan tumbuh di tahun ini dan tahun mendatang. Pound juga sempat terpukul oleh laporan dari Confederation of British Industry menunjukkan Retail Sales Inggris anjlok di bulan Mei (net 17% melaporkan penurunan) dan bulan depan masih akan sulit untuk toko-toko karena pengangguran meningkat, memberikan signal resesi masih belum berakhir. Sementara prediksi Morgan Stanley bahwa dolar AS mungkin akan terkoreksi 10% untuk basis bobot perdagangan di akhir tahun depan, mendorong trader untuk antisipasi penguatan mata uang yuan China. Meski potensi penguatan pound terbatas sebelum rilisa data ekonomi AS hari ini.
USD-CHF 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
1.0881 1.1965 (12/03) 1.0617 (02/01) 0.7845 0.7890 (27/05) 0.6248 (02/02)
Swiss franc menguat terhadap dolar di sesi Asia hari ini, setelah pasar saham Wall Street semalam menguat berimbas positif kepada pasar saham regional Asia dan kenaikan harga minyak yang mencapai level tertinggi $ 64.89/barel setelah OPEC mempertahankan output dan laporan inventory minyak AS merosot tajam di pekan lalu, mendorong investor memburu aset yang beresiko seperti saham dan komoditi. Swiss franc mendapatkan sentimen negatif dari laporan National Pension Services Korea Selatan mengatakan mereka akan memangkas bobot kepemilikan Treasury AS. Swiss franc menguat setelah data ekspor Swiss meningkat 8.3% di bulan April, diikuti data ekonomi AS: Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Order, New Home Sales tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraab, menurunkan daya tarik dolar AS sebagai mata uang safe haven. Meski potensi penguatan CHF terbatas mejelang rilisan revisi data GDP Q1 diperkirakan membaik ke -5.5% dari -6.1%, berkat investment dan net export. Chicago PMI bulan Juni dan University of Michigan Final diperkirakan lebih baik dari periode sebelumnya dapat memberikan tekanan kepada dolar, berkat perkiraan pemulihan ekonomi global da Swiss tengah berlangsung.
Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) menguat di sesi Asia hari ini, berpotensi mengalami penguatan untuk bulan ke-3, karena keyakinan investor untuk pemulihan ekonomi gobal mendorong investor memburu aset yang memiliki suku bunga yang lebih tinggi. Aussie dan kiwi menguat pada pekan ini terhadap dolar setelah Standard & Poors menaikkan pandangan rating hutang Selandia Baru menjadi stabil dari netral dan meningkatnya kekhawatiran terhadap rating kredit AAA milik AS. Harga komoditi yang mencakup lebih dari setengah ekspor negara Selatan Pasifik, meningkat 12 persen di bulan ini, kenaikan tertinggi sejak 1974. Aussie menguat ke tertinggi 0.7916 dan kiwi menguat ke tertinggi $ 0.6248 di sesi Asia hari ini. Aussie menguat 10.5% terhadap dolar di bulan ini dan menguat 8 persen menjadi 60.42 yen. Laporan Reserve bank of Australia bahwa pinjaman bank di Australia meningkat di bulan April untuk bulan ke-4 memberikan bukti bahwa rendahnya suku bunga dan stimulus dari pemerintah telah meningkatkan permntaan. Laporan Home Building Approval Selandia Baru meningkat 11.2% di bulan April.
Technical Analysis
(+130p-20p, closed at 1,4000) EUR-USD menunjukkan signal positif dari pola candle bullish harami dalam pola uptrend channel seharusnya masih memberikan momentum kenaikan kepada euro hari ini. Indikator teknikal MACD, stochastic masih uptrend kendati overbought, meski ADX terkoreksi turun yang memberikan indikasi bahwa potensi kenaikan euro dapat terbatas pada hari ini. Perpotongan 20-day MA (1.3454) & 200-day MA (1.3376) menunjukkan golden cross sejak hari Rabu, memberikan support kepada euro dolar. Support berada di 1.3761 (support line). Euro dalam proses koreksi wave minute 5 dalam minor C zig zag - wave intermediate 4 menunjukkan potensi toppish di kisaran $ 1.4175/1,4234 (upper channel). Buy 1.3940 & buy break 1.4050 target di 1.4175 stop 50p, sell 1.4175 target 1.4040 stop 30p, Sell break 1.3900 target 1.3790 stop 50p.
(+70p at 95.40) USDJPY masih menunjukkan pola head & shoulder dan downtrend channel, dimana kegagalan menembus 97.39 (upper channel) dapat memberikan tekanan kepada jpy target neckline H&S di 93.81. Sementara signal positif muncul dari pola candle bullish continuation, indikator ADX koreksi turun di saat terjadi rebound, meski MACD dan Stochastic menunjukkan oversold, memperlihat potensi kenaikan terbatas. Jika ditutup dibawah level 97.21 (200-day MA & high kemarin) 94.62/93.51 (downward channel). Resistance berada di 97.34/98.58 (downtrend line). Sell 97.35 target 96.00 stop 97.90, sell break 96.00 target 95.00 stop 50p. Sell 98.50 target 96.00 stop 50p. Buy 95.15 target 96.00 stop 94.60.
(-40-60p). GBP-USD menunjukkan trend bullish karena berada dalam uptrend channel dalam diagonal triangle meski menunjukkan pola candle tri star yang menunjukkan potensi revesal meski Indikator MACD, Stochastic uptrend, kendati ADX menunjukkan koreksi penurunan, volume menunjukkan kenaikan, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas hari ini. Crossingnya 10-day MA (1.5808) & 200-day MA (1,5494), dapat menopang GBP, selama bertahan di atas 1.5554 (support line) target 1.6088 (50%FR)/1.6271 (upper channel). Analisa EW menunjukkan proses wave motive minute 5 dalam wave impulse 3. Buy break 1.6090 target 1.6240 stop 50p. Sell break 1.5960 target 1.5850 stop 50p. Sell 1.6240 target 1.6090 stop 50p. Buy 1.5990 target 1.61 stop 35p.
AUD-USD mendapatkan signal positif dari pola candle piercing bullish kemarin didukung oleh ADX, stochastic dan MACD yang masih uptrend, seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan aud hari ini. Meski trend masih bullish selama bertahan di atas 0.7814 (support line di rising wedge), untuk target 0.7951 (upper channel)/0.8003 (61.8 FE). Elliot wave menunjukkan wave impulse minor 3 dalam koreksi wave intermediate C dalam primary B. Buy 0.7865 target 0.8000 stop 50p, Sell break 0.7810 target 0.7710 (closing) stop 45p, sell 0.8000 target 0.7860 stop 60p. Buy break 0.7950 target 0.8000.
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Thursday, May 28, 2009
IHSG : Potensi Breakout Wave Impulse Masih Terbuka
Market Review
IHSG akhirnya berhasil ditutup di atas level 1,900 untuk pertama kali sejak 22 September 2008, berkat kenaikan saham dari yang memiliki isu positif dividen maupun aksi korporat seperti saham grup Astra dan Bakrie, TRUB dan sejumlah saham pertambangan batubara yang mendapatkan katalis positif dari kenaikan harga minyak yang berada diatas $ 63/barel kemarin. Imbas dari kenaikan indeks saham regional berkat meredanya ketegangan situasi geopolitik akibat latihan militer Korut, ikut menopang kinerja IHSG yang sempat dibuka melemah, dari pengaruh penutupan saham Wall Street yang negatif. IHSG ditutup menguat 10.033 poin (0.530%), ditutup di 1,902.876, dengan total nilai transaksi di BEI tercatat Rp 3.035 triliun. Investor asing membukukan net buy Rp 73.440 miliar dari net buy Rp 195.949 miliar pada hari Kamis (28/05).
Mayoritas indeks saham di Asia-Pacific menguat kemarin, terutama indeks Saham Korea Selatan, mengacuhkan penurunan saham Wall Street hari Rabu karena meredanya ketegangan geopolitik dari latihan militer Korut dan imbas kenaikan harga minyak ($63.92/barel) berperan angkat saham komoditi Asia.
IHSG Outlook
Potensi kenaikan IHSG masih terbuka, dilihat dari faktor fundamental ekonomi RI yang solid, diikuti euphoria dari pembagian dividen emiten lokal, kondisi teknikal yang uptrend dan sentimen positif dari hasil Strest Test BI kemarin, memperlihatkan sehatnya sektor perbankan nasional dan meredam kekhawatiran terhadap isu downgrade 10 ban oleh Moodys Investor Services dalam waktu dekat, seharusnya masih memberikan support kepada saham finansial. Isu penurunan inflasi dan suku bunga BI pada pekan depan, dapat menopang kinerja saham property dan finansial. Sementara trend kenaikan harga minyak (target $ 74, jika $ 64.35 berhasil ditembus) masih memberikan support kepada saham pertambangan batubara, logam dan cpo. Menurunnya daya tarik saham grup Bakrie yang menjadi primadona dalam 2 bulan terakhir, diikuti faktor eksternal dari isu kebangkrutan GM Corp dan revisi data GDP Q1 AS hari ini, dapat batasi kenaikan IHSG.
Stock Picks:
* INDY
* SMCB
Global Outlook
Positifnya fundamental ekonomi dari lebih baik dari perkiraan data ekonomi AS: Durable Goods Order AS bulan April (+1.4%), Jobless Claims (623K), kuatnya inflow ke pasar emerging (termasuk regional Asia) dan imbas kenaikan harga komoditi memberikan sentimen positif kepada indeks saham regional Asia dan AS, meski dampaknya terbatas dari masih kuatnya sentimen negatif seperti isu kebangkrutan General Motor Corp dan Chrysler LLC AS pada pekan ini, laporan FDIC menunjukkan bahwa krisis finansial di AS masih belum berakhir dan fundamental ekonomi negara Asia Tenggara (Singapura, Thailand dan Malaysia) yang baru merilis GDP Q1 2009, menunjukkan pertumbuhan negatif, masih membatasi momentum kenaikan indeks regional Asia.
Technical Analysis:
IHSG diperkirakan akan menunjukkan breakout triple top daily di 1,907 untuk target 1,950, berkat signal positif dari stochastic yang menunjukkan golden cross, MACD trending up dan candle menunjukkan side-by-side white lines, meski ADX menunjukkan laju kenaikan tidak didukung oleh power yang kuat, mendukung analisa Elliot wave bahwa IHSG berada dalam proses minute wave iii dalam minor wave impulse 5 dalam siklus koreksi intermediate wave 4, untuk target 1,950 (50% FR)/2,027 (161.8 FE) selama ditutup harian di atas 1,786 (downtrend channel). IHSG masih mendapatkan support di 1,884 (10-day MA)/1,852 (20-day MA).
Resistance: 1960.69/1947.62/1934.54/1912.17. PP 1895.32
Support : 1890.67/1886.02/1877.60/1869.17
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 1,890-1,950)
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IHSG akhirnya berhasil ditutup di atas level 1,900 untuk pertama kali sejak 22 September 2008, berkat kenaikan saham dari yang memiliki isu positif dividen maupun aksi korporat seperti saham grup Astra dan Bakrie, TRUB dan sejumlah saham pertambangan batubara yang mendapatkan katalis positif dari kenaikan harga minyak yang berada diatas $ 63/barel kemarin. Imbas dari kenaikan indeks saham regional berkat meredanya ketegangan situasi geopolitik akibat latihan militer Korut, ikut menopang kinerja IHSG yang sempat dibuka melemah, dari pengaruh penutupan saham Wall Street yang negatif. IHSG ditutup menguat 10.033 poin (0.530%), ditutup di 1,902.876, dengan total nilai transaksi di BEI tercatat Rp 3.035 triliun. Investor asing membukukan net buy Rp 73.440 miliar dari net buy Rp 195.949 miliar pada hari Kamis (28/05).
Mayoritas indeks saham di Asia-Pacific menguat kemarin, terutama indeks Saham Korea Selatan, mengacuhkan penurunan saham Wall Street hari Rabu karena meredanya ketegangan geopolitik dari latihan militer Korut dan imbas kenaikan harga minyak ($63.92/barel) berperan angkat saham komoditi Asia.
IHSG Outlook
Potensi kenaikan IHSG masih terbuka, dilihat dari faktor fundamental ekonomi RI yang solid, diikuti euphoria dari pembagian dividen emiten lokal, kondisi teknikal yang uptrend dan sentimen positif dari hasil Strest Test BI kemarin, memperlihatkan sehatnya sektor perbankan nasional dan meredam kekhawatiran terhadap isu downgrade 10 ban oleh Moodys Investor Services dalam waktu dekat, seharusnya masih memberikan support kepada saham finansial. Isu penurunan inflasi dan suku bunga BI pada pekan depan, dapat menopang kinerja saham property dan finansial. Sementara trend kenaikan harga minyak (target $ 74, jika $ 64.35 berhasil ditembus) masih memberikan support kepada saham pertambangan batubara, logam dan cpo. Menurunnya daya tarik saham grup Bakrie yang menjadi primadona dalam 2 bulan terakhir, diikuti faktor eksternal dari isu kebangkrutan GM Corp dan revisi data GDP Q1 AS hari ini, dapat batasi kenaikan IHSG.
Stock Picks:
* INDY
* SMCB
Global Outlook
Positifnya fundamental ekonomi dari lebih baik dari perkiraan data ekonomi AS: Durable Goods Order AS bulan April (+1.4%), Jobless Claims (623K), kuatnya inflow ke pasar emerging (termasuk regional Asia) dan imbas kenaikan harga komoditi memberikan sentimen positif kepada indeks saham regional Asia dan AS, meski dampaknya terbatas dari masih kuatnya sentimen negatif seperti isu kebangkrutan General Motor Corp dan Chrysler LLC AS pada pekan ini, laporan FDIC menunjukkan bahwa krisis finansial di AS masih belum berakhir dan fundamental ekonomi negara Asia Tenggara (Singapura, Thailand dan Malaysia) yang baru merilis GDP Q1 2009, menunjukkan pertumbuhan negatif, masih membatasi momentum kenaikan indeks regional Asia.
Technical Analysis:
IHSG diperkirakan akan menunjukkan breakout triple top daily di 1,907 untuk target 1,950, berkat signal positif dari stochastic yang menunjukkan golden cross, MACD trending up dan candle menunjukkan side-by-side white lines, meski ADX menunjukkan laju kenaikan tidak didukung oleh power yang kuat, mendukung analisa Elliot wave bahwa IHSG berada dalam proses minute wave iii dalam minor wave impulse 5 dalam siklus koreksi intermediate wave 4, untuk target 1,950 (50% FR)/2,027 (161.8 FE) selama ditutup harian di atas 1,786 (downtrend channel). IHSG masih mendapatkan support di 1,884 (10-day MA)/1,852 (20-day MA).
Resistance: 1960.69/1947.62/1934.54/1912.17. PP 1895.32
Support : 1890.67/1886.02/1877.60/1869.17
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 1,890-1,950)
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Indeks Regional Berpotensi Melanjutkan Kenaikan Kendati terbatas
SSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
9455 9330 9455 9230 9510 9335 9610 9180 9255 9350 9520 9595 9690
Commentary
Secara teknikal, SSIM9 berada dalam pola uptrend channel, meski ada signal negatif dari pola candle daily spinning top dan indikator teknikal stochastic daily crossing (K% & D%), MACD masih uptrend dan ADX menunjukkan penurunan, mendukung perkiraan kenaikan terbatas selama indeks diatas 9303 (uptrend line), dan berpotensi mengarah naik ke target 9590 (100.0 FE). Sementara support berada di 9303 (10-day MA)/9060 (20-day MA)/8939 (support line daily) yang seharusnya masih menopang kinerja uptrend indeks dalam beberapa hari mendatang. Perkiraan range hari ini: 9200-9600.
Rekomendasi : Buy break 9510 target 9690, stop 100p, Buy 9,300 target 9510 stop 100p, Sell 9620 target 9350. (+85p)
KSM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
177.30 175.0 178.9 174.0 178.9 176.1 179.9 168.4 170.5 173.9 179.3 181.4 184.8
Commentary
Secara teknikal, KSM9 masih berada dalam kondisi uptrend, meski karena masih berada dalam descending triangle dan menunjukkan pola candle belt hold bullish. Indikator teknikal menunjukkan signal positif ditunjukkan meski stochastic daily menunjukkan dead cross, MACD kendati uptrend tapi terkoreksi turun, ADX terlihat flat lemah menunjukkan peluang kenaikan masih terbuka. Selama indeks ditutup diatas downtrend support line 173.33, potensi kenaikan masih terbuka. Resistance berada di 179.30 (61.8 FE))/183.10 (100.0 FE). Sementara trend dapat berbalik bearish jika indeks ditutup diatas 173.41, untuk target 179.20 (downtrend line)/182.75 (100.0 FE). Perkiraan range hari ini: 175-181.00
Rekomendasi : Buy break 178.90 target 182.00 stop 100p, buy 175.30 target 179.50 stop 60p. Buy 172.90 target 177.00. sell 182.70 target 176.0. (-100p+100p).
HSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
17666 16953 17344 16853 17344 17031 17444 16663 16946 17402 18141 18424 18880
Commentary
Secara teknikal, minimnya chart teknikal indeks yang menunjukkan breakout level 17550 ke level tertinggi 17967, menunjukkan rising window dan pola candle long bullish seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan ke target 18,140/18880 jika masih ditutup diatas 200-day MA di 16,230. Perkiraan range besok : 17600-18.100.
Rekomendasi : Sell 18140 target 17800 (or closing) stop 100 p. buy 17600 target 17900, stop 60 poin. Sell break 17550 target 16960 stop 100p. Buy 16960 target 17250 stop 100p (+300p-60p, buy break 16570 was done)
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9455 9330 9455 9230 9510 9335 9610 9180 9255 9350 9520 9595 9690
Commentary
Secara teknikal, SSIM9 berada dalam pola uptrend channel, meski ada signal negatif dari pola candle daily spinning top dan indikator teknikal stochastic daily crossing (K% & D%), MACD masih uptrend dan ADX menunjukkan penurunan, mendukung perkiraan kenaikan terbatas selama indeks diatas 9303 (uptrend line), dan berpotensi mengarah naik ke target 9590 (100.0 FE). Sementara support berada di 9303 (10-day MA)/9060 (20-day MA)/8939 (support line daily) yang seharusnya masih menopang kinerja uptrend indeks dalam beberapa hari mendatang. Perkiraan range hari ini: 9200-9600.
Rekomendasi : Buy break 9510 target 9690, stop 100p, Buy 9,300 target 9510 stop 100p, Sell 9620 target 9350. (+85p)
KSM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
177.30 175.0 178.9 174.0 178.9 176.1 179.9 168.4 170.5 173.9 179.3 181.4 184.8
Commentary
Secara teknikal, KSM9 masih berada dalam kondisi uptrend, meski karena masih berada dalam descending triangle dan menunjukkan pola candle belt hold bullish. Indikator teknikal menunjukkan signal positif ditunjukkan meski stochastic daily menunjukkan dead cross, MACD kendati uptrend tapi terkoreksi turun, ADX terlihat flat lemah menunjukkan peluang kenaikan masih terbuka. Selama indeks ditutup diatas downtrend support line 173.33, potensi kenaikan masih terbuka. Resistance berada di 179.30 (61.8 FE))/183.10 (100.0 FE). Sementara trend dapat berbalik bearish jika indeks ditutup diatas 173.41, untuk target 179.20 (downtrend line)/182.75 (100.0 FE). Perkiraan range hari ini: 175-181.00
Rekomendasi : Buy break 178.90 target 182.00 stop 100p, buy 175.30 target 179.50 stop 60p. Buy 172.90 target 177.00. sell 182.70 target 176.0. (-100p+100p).
HSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
17666 16953 17344 16853 17344 17031 17444 16663 16946 17402 18141 18424 18880
Commentary
Secara teknikal, minimnya chart teknikal indeks yang menunjukkan breakout level 17550 ke level tertinggi 17967, menunjukkan rising window dan pola candle long bullish seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan ke target 18,140/18880 jika masih ditutup diatas 200-day MA di 16,230. Perkiraan range besok : 17600-18.100.
Rekomendasi : Sell 18140 target 17800 (or closing) stop 100 p. buy 17600 target 17900, stop 60 poin. Sell break 17550 target 16960 stop 100p. Buy 16960 target 17250 stop 100p (+300p-60p, buy break 16570 was done)
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Barclays Sees $64.35 as Oil ‘Swing’ Target: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil is poised to rally to $74 a barrel in New York once it breaks through a “swing target” at $64.35, according to technical analysts at Barclays Capital. That price marks the completion of a rally in May that was equal in magnitude to a surge between February and early April, according to the London-based investment bank of Barclays Plc. Once $64.35 is reached, it will trigger further gains toward the 200-day moving average of the July crude contract, which is around $65.67 a barrel, the bank said.“There have been a lot of trades expressed to capture slowing global growth, such as shorting crude or copper,” Barclays analyst MacNeil Curry said in phone interview from New York. “As these positions go from short to flat and ultimately long, it will continue to take the market higher.”
Crude futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange last traded around $63.40 a barrel as of 11:28 a.m. London time, little changed after OPEC maintained output targets as analysts had forecast.“Ultimately we think we’re going to $74, $75,” Curry said. “If you look at financial markets, the 200-day average has been passed around asset classes from copper to Treasuries to the dollar for the first time since last year.”
Oil crossing the 200-day moving average for the July contract at around $65.67 a barrel would send a “buy” signal to investors outside the community of technical analysts because it is such a widely monitored measure, Curry added.Reaching this threshold will affirm that crude is set to complete an inverted “head-and-shoulders” formation that would take prices as high as $75 a barrel on the Nymex, Barclays said.
Crude futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange last traded around $63.40 a barrel as of 11:28 a.m. London time, little changed after OPEC maintained output targets as analysts had forecast.“Ultimately we think we’re going to $74, $75,” Curry said. “If you look at financial markets, the 200-day average has been passed around asset classes from copper to Treasuries to the dollar for the first time since last year.”
Oil crossing the 200-day moving average for the July contract at around $65.67 a barrel would send a “buy” signal to investors outside the community of technical analysts because it is such a widely monitored measure, Curry added.Reaching this threshold will affirm that crude is set to complete an inverted “head-and-shoulders” formation that would take prices as high as $75 a barrel on the Nymex, Barclays said.
S&P 500 Rally Is in Last Stages, Aurel Says: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The two-month rally in U.S. stocks is in its final stages and a correction will take place in the coming weeks, according to a technical analyst at Aurel BGC. “The speed of the market’s gains is slower and slower,” Paris-based Alexandre Le Drogoff said in a phone interview yesterday. “Mathematical indicators are showing the market losing steam.” The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has surged 32 percent from a 12-year low on March 9 as investors speculated the global recession is easing and earnings at companies from Ford Motor Co. to Wells Fargo & Co. beat analysts’ estimates.
Technical analysts look at price charts to forecast so- called resistance levels, or ceilings restricting further price increases, and support levels, or floors limiting declines. Le Drogoff said his next resistance level for the S&P 500 is 924 and his next support is 875/878, though he hasn’t set a time frame for either prediction. “Excessive overselling has driven a powerful rebound,” Le Drogoff said. “We’re near the end of the rally. The message is one of caution.”
Technical analysts look at price charts to forecast so- called resistance levels, or ceilings restricting further price increases, and support levels, or floors limiting declines. Le Drogoff said his next resistance level for the S&P 500 is 924 and his next support is 875/878, though he hasn’t set a time frame for either prediction. “Excessive overselling has driven a powerful rebound,” Le Drogoff said. “We’re near the end of the rally. The message is one of caution.”
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu May 28 09 07:27 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's rally is still in progress and reaches as high as 63.93 so far today. Short term outlook remains bullish as long as 59.61 support holds. Current rally is expected to continue to 55 weeks EMA (now at 67.18) next. However, consider bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI, break of 59.61 will indicate that a short term top is possibly formed and deeper decline could then be seen to test channel support at 49.86.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 33.2 is still in progress with crude oil staying well inside rising channel and above 55 days EMA. There is no sign of topping yet and such rally is still in favor to continue. Nevertheless, the main question remains on whether such rebound is resuming the long term up trend or is it merely correction to the fall from 147.27. In any case, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as crude oil stays above channel support and further rally to 55 weeks EMA at 67.33 and 55 months EMA at 68.85 is still in favor even in case of pull back. However, note that failure to sustain above the mentioned EMAs, followed by break of the channel support, will suggest that rise from 33.2 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for a retest of 33.2 low.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's rally is still in progress and reaches as high as 63.93 so far today. Short term outlook remains bullish as long as 59.61 support holds. Current rally is expected to continue to 55 weeks EMA (now at 67.18) next. However, consider bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI, break of 59.61 will indicate that a short term top is possibly formed and deeper decline could then be seen to test channel support at 49.86.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 33.2 is still in progress with crude oil staying well inside rising channel and above 55 days EMA. There is no sign of topping yet and such rally is still in favor to continue. Nevertheless, the main question remains on whether such rebound is resuming the long term up trend or is it merely correction to the fall from 147.27. In any case, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as crude oil stays above channel support and further rally to 55 weeks EMA at 67.33 and 55 months EMA at 68.85 is still in favor even in case of pull back. However, note that failure to sustain above the mentioned EMAs, followed by break of the channel support, will suggest that rise from 33.2 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for a retest of 33.2 low.
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold continues to consolidate below 963.10 today and some more sideway trading might still be seen. Nevertheless, another rise is still in favor as long as 915.2 support holds. Break of 967.6 will bring retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone. However, note that a break of 915.2 will indicate that whole rebound from 865 has completed and risk retest of this low.
In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 1007.7 so far is consistent with the bullish case. That is, rise from 681 is resumption of long term up trend after triangle consolidation from 1033.9 completed at 681. Retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone should now be seen. Decisive break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. On the downside, while another fall cannot be ruled out for the moment, we'll hold on to the bullish case as long as 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) remains intact.
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold continues to consolidate below 963.10 today and some more sideway trading might still be seen. Nevertheless, another rise is still in favor as long as 915.2 support holds. Break of 967.6 will bring retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone. However, note that a break of 915.2 will indicate that whole rebound from 865 has completed and risk retest of this low.
In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 1007.7 so far is consistent with the bullish case. That is, rise from 681 is resumption of long term up trend after triangle consolidation from 1033.9 completed at 681. Retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone should now be seen. Decisive break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. On the downside, while another fall cannot be ruled out for the moment, we'll hold on to the bullish case as long as 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) remains intact.
Risk Aversion Dari Krisis Perbankan AS Masih Menghantui Kinerja Dolar AS
USD Index 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low EUR-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
80.24 89.62 (04/03) 79.63 (02/01) 1.3933 1.4055 (02/01) 1.2459 (04/03)
Dolar AS menguat ke level tertinggi 2-pekan terhadap yen dan menguat terhadap mata uang Eropa di sesi perdagangan Asia, karena indeks saham Asia mengalami koreksi penurunan, menjadikan dolar sebagai mata uang safe haven. Dolar menguat berkat laporan FDIC menklasifikasikan 305 bank di AS sebagai bermasalah dan total aset yang bermasalah meningkat 38% menjadi $ 220 miliar, level tertinggi sejak 1993. Spekulasi General Motor Corp AS akan mengajukan kebangkrutan pada pekan ini, memulihkan permintaan untuk aset yang lebih aman seperti dolar. Kebangkrutan General Motor Corp AS menjadi hampir pasti setelah perusahaan kemarin gagal membujuk pemegang obligasi untuk mengambil equity yang dapat ditukar dengan hutang senilai $ 27 miliar. Penawaran GM untuk swap hutang – equity gagal memenangkan 90% penyetujuan oleh pemegang saham yang jatuh tempo semalam. Langkah GM Corp tersebut akan diikuti oleh pengajuan kebangkrutan oleh Chrysler LLC Corp, dimana mendorong dolar menjadi mata uang safe haven. Sebelumnya semalam AS merilis Existing Home Sales yang meningkat 2.9% menjadi 4.68 juta unit. Sementara lelang Treasury 5-tahun AS $ 35 miliar berjalan sukses, kembali membebani pasar saham dan komoditi, mendorong penguatan dolar AS.
Euro mengalami tekanan di sesi Asia hari ini, setelah terpuruknya pasar saham Asia-Pasifik mendorong aksi risk aversion diantara investor global, setelah data ekonomi Jepang (Retail Sales) mengalami kontraksi lebih lanjut, laporan Federal Deposit Insurance Corp (FDIC) AS menganggap 305 bank di AS bermasalah dan spekulasi laporan pengangguran Jerman akan meningkat untuk bulan ke-7 di bulan Mei karena order perusahaan anjlok di resesi terburuk sejak Perang Dunia II. Meningkatnya kekhawatiran terhadap sistem finansial Eropa dan perbankan di AS, masih meningkatkan permintaan untuk dolar terhadap ero, dalam kondisi teknikal euro dolar yang overbought. Terkoreksinya harga minyak dari level tertinggi $ 63.45/barel kemarin setelah OPEC mempertahankan output minyak dalam pertemuan di Wina hari ini, mendorong profit-taking posisi long (buy) euro dolar. Spekulasi pengajuan kebangkrutan General Motor Corp dan Chrysler LLC AS pada pekan ini, diikuti rilisan data consumer confidence euro bulan Mei diperkirakan membaik menjadi -30 dar -31 dan sejumlah data penting dari AS, dapat memicu risk aversion yang berpotensi melemahkan euro jika data tercatat dibawh perkiraan pasar.
USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
95.38 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.5925 1.6085 (27/05) 1.3502 (23/01)
Yen melemah ke level terendah Y 96.58 di sesi Asia hari ini setelah indeks saham Nikkei 225 mengalami kenaikan setelah terpuruk di awal sesi perdagangan di tengah memburuknya kondisi ekonomi Jepang, karena anjloknya data penjualan ritel Jepang bulan April dan laporan investor Jepang meningkatkan pembelian obligasi di luar negeri dalam 1 bulan terakhir. Yen juga melemah terhadap euro ke level terendah 2-pekan karena spekulasi investor Jepang akan membeli aset di luar negeri yang lebih banyak berkat signal resesi global telah mereda. Berdasarkan laporan dari Menteri Keuangan hari ini, investor Jepang membeli 641.1 miliar yen ($ 6.6 miliar) surat berharga dan obligasi yang lebih banyak dibandingkan yang mereka jual di pekan yang berakhir pada 23 Mei, net buying terbesar dalam 1 bulan. Sementara data Retail Sales Jepang anjlok 2.8% untuk bulan ke-8, setelah direvisi menurun 3.8% di bulan Maret, menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang yen. Isu kebangkrutan GM Corp & Chrysler LLC AS, diikuti kekhawatiran terhadap sistem perbankan AS, masih dapat membebani kinerja yen, menjelang sejumlah data penting ekonomi AS hari ini.
Pound sterling menguat di atas level $ 1.60 terhadap dolar untuk pertama kali dalam hampir 7 bulan karena spekulasi krisis finansial terburuk akan berakhir, meningkatkan permintaan untuk aset yang berdemominasi dalam bentuk mata uang pound Inggris. Indeks harga saham FTSE 350 bank Inggris menguat kemarin. Pound sempat menguat ke $ 1.6085 kemarin, setelah data Existing Home Sales AS meningkat lebih tinggi dari prediksi. Pound juga mendapatkan keuntungan dari hampir seperempat dari total 220 fund yang mengikuti survei dari Merrill Lynch pada pekan lalu, menunjukkan bahwa pound berada dalam kondisi undervalued, karena penurunan pound sebesar 19% dalam 12 bulan terahir membuat pound menjadi menarik untuk investor yang berpikir paket stimulus pemerintah akan mengeluarkan ekonomi global dari resesi. Sementara lelang Treasury 5-tahun AS $ 35 miliar berjalan sukses, meningkatkan permintaan untuk dolar terhadap pound. Sementara imbas penurunan rating kredit AS dan spekulasi data ekonomi masih membebani pound.
USD-CHF 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
1.0881 1.1965 (12/03) 1.0617 (02/01) 0.7845 0.7890 (27/05) 0.6248 (02/02)
Swiss franc melemah terhadap dolar di sesi perdagangan Asia, karena indeks saham Asia mengalami koreksi penurunan, menjadikan dolar sebagai mata uang safe haven. Swiss franc berkat laporan FDIC mengklasifikasikan 305 bank di AS sebagai bermasalah dan total aset yang bermasalah meningkat 38% menjadi $ 220 miliar, level tertinggi sejak 1993. Spekulasi General Motor Corp AS akan mengajukan kebangkrutan pada pekan ini, memulihkan permintaan untuk aset yang lebih aman seperti dolar. Kebangkrutan General Motor Corp AS menjadi hampir pasti setelah perusahaan kemarin gagal membujuk pemegang obligasi untuk mengambil equity yang dapat ditukar dengan hutang senilai $ 27 miliar. Langkah GM Corp tersebut akan diikuti oleh pengajuan kebangkrutan oleh Chrysler LLC Corp, dimana mendorong dolar menjadi mata uang safe haven. Sebelumnya semalam AS merilis Existing Home Sales yang meningkat 2.9% menjadi 4.68 juta unit, sempat mendorong aksi pembel;ian CHF. Sementara lelang Treasury 5-tahun AS $ 35 miliar berjalan sukses, kembali membebani pasar saham dan komoditi, mendorong pelemahan CHF terhadap dolar.
Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) mengalami koreksi penurunan di sesi Asia hari ini, setelah dolar menguat terhadap mata uang Eropa dan yen Jepang setelah laporan suksesnya lelang Treasury AS 5-tahun sebesar $ 35 miliar semalam dan munculnya kekhawatiran terhadap sistem perbankan di AS setelah FDIC AS melaporkan 305 bank d AS bermasalah, yang meningkatkan permintaan untuk dolar AS sebagai mata uang safe haven. Aussie terpukul setelah laporan investasi bisnis Australia anjlok untuk pertama kali dalam 6 kuartal terakhir di di Q1, anjlok 8.9%. meski sebelumnya dolar Selandia Baru mendapatkan support dari laporan Standard & Poors menaikkan pandangan rating hutang negara menjadi stabil dari negatif, ikut menopang kinerja aussie. Menteri keuangan Selandia Baru Bill English mengatakan defisit anggaran akan membengkak menjadi NZ$ 11.87 miliar ($ 7.3 miliar) hingga 30 juni 2010. Meningkatnya kekhawatiran terhadap sistem perbankan AS dan data ekonomi AS malam ini dapat membebani kinerja aussie dan kiwi.
Technical Analysis
(-15p+50p closed sell 1.850) EUR-USD menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola pennant dalam uptrend channel diikuti pola candle long bearish candle, seharusnya masih memberikan tekanan kepada euro hari ini. Indikator teknikal MACD, stochastic masih uptrend kendati overbought, meski ADX terkoreksi turun yang memberikan indikasi bahwa potensi kenaikan euro dapat terjadi waktu dekat. Perpotongan 20-day MA (1.3608) & 200-day MA (1.3384) menunjukkan golde cross, memberikan support kepada euro dolar. Support berada di 1.3790 (support line). Euro dalam proses koreksi wave minute 4 dalam minor C zig zag - wave intermediate 4 menunjukkan potensi toppish di kisaran $ 1.42. Buy break 1.3870 target di 1.4000 stop 50p, sell 1.4000 target 1.330 stop 30p, Buy di 1.3730 target 1.4000, stop 60p. Sell 1.3850 target 1.3730 stop 50p.
(+60p-50p) USDJPY masih menunjukkan pola head & shoulder dan bearish downtrend channel, dimana penutupan diatas 96.28 (upper channel) untuk mengarah ke target 98.74 (downtrend line). Sementara signal positif muncul dari pola candle bullish continuation, indikator ADX koreksi turun di saat terjadi rebound, meski MACD dan Stochastic menunjukkan oversold, dapat mendukung potensi kenaikan pada hari ini. Jika ditutup dibawah level 96.28 target 94.62 (middle channel line terutama masih berada di bawah 97.27 (200-day MA) Support berada di 94.28 (50% FR))/93.78 (low 22/5). Sell 97.20 target 96.00 stop 97.70, sell break 95.90 target 95.00 stop 50p. Sell 98.70 target 96.00 stop 50p.
(+180p, +30p). GBP-USD menunjukkan trend bullish karena berada dalam uptrend channel dalam diagonal triangle meski menunjukkan signal negatif dari candle shooting star meski sempat mencapai level tertinggi 1.6085, dapat memutarbalikkan trend bullish menjadi netral jika GBP gagal ditutup diatas 1.5778 (61.8 FE). Indikator MACD, Stochastic uptrend, kendati ADX menunjukkan flat, potensi penurunan terbatas. Crossingnya 10-day MA (1.5688) & 200-day MA (1,5511), dapat menopang GBP, selama bertahan di atas 1.5577 (support line) target 1.6088 (50%FR). Analisa EW menunjukkan wave motive minute 4 dalam wave impulse 3. Buy 1.5780 target 1.5950 stop 70p. Sell 1.5940 target 1.5800 stop 1.5980. Buy break 1.5975 target 1.6090 stop 60p. Sell 1.6150 target 1.5800 stop 50p. (hold sell 0.7820 target 0.7700 stop 0.7820) AUD-USD menunjukkan potensi penurunan berkat pola long bearish candle & tweezer top didukung oleh terkoreksinya ADX, stochastic dan MACD yang overbought, seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan aud hari ini. Meski trend masih bullish selama bertahan di atas 0.76754 (downward channel), untuk target 0.7898/0.7935. Elliot wave menunjukkan wave impulse minor 3 dalam koreksi wave intermediate C dalam primary B. Sell 0.7920 target 0.7780 stop 60p, Buy 0.7700 target 0.7850 (closing) stop 45p, sell break 0.7660 target 0.7550 stop 60p. Sell 0.8000 target 0.7800.
80.24 89.62 (04/03) 79.63 (02/01) 1.3933 1.4055 (02/01) 1.2459 (04/03)
Dolar AS menguat ke level tertinggi 2-pekan terhadap yen dan menguat terhadap mata uang Eropa di sesi perdagangan Asia, karena indeks saham Asia mengalami koreksi penurunan, menjadikan dolar sebagai mata uang safe haven. Dolar menguat berkat laporan FDIC menklasifikasikan 305 bank di AS sebagai bermasalah dan total aset yang bermasalah meningkat 38% menjadi $ 220 miliar, level tertinggi sejak 1993. Spekulasi General Motor Corp AS akan mengajukan kebangkrutan pada pekan ini, memulihkan permintaan untuk aset yang lebih aman seperti dolar. Kebangkrutan General Motor Corp AS menjadi hampir pasti setelah perusahaan kemarin gagal membujuk pemegang obligasi untuk mengambil equity yang dapat ditukar dengan hutang senilai $ 27 miliar. Penawaran GM untuk swap hutang – equity gagal memenangkan 90% penyetujuan oleh pemegang saham yang jatuh tempo semalam. Langkah GM Corp tersebut akan diikuti oleh pengajuan kebangkrutan oleh Chrysler LLC Corp, dimana mendorong dolar menjadi mata uang safe haven. Sebelumnya semalam AS merilis Existing Home Sales yang meningkat 2.9% menjadi 4.68 juta unit. Sementara lelang Treasury 5-tahun AS $ 35 miliar berjalan sukses, kembali membebani pasar saham dan komoditi, mendorong penguatan dolar AS.
Euro mengalami tekanan di sesi Asia hari ini, setelah terpuruknya pasar saham Asia-Pasifik mendorong aksi risk aversion diantara investor global, setelah data ekonomi Jepang (Retail Sales) mengalami kontraksi lebih lanjut, laporan Federal Deposit Insurance Corp (FDIC) AS menganggap 305 bank di AS bermasalah dan spekulasi laporan pengangguran Jerman akan meningkat untuk bulan ke-7 di bulan Mei karena order perusahaan anjlok di resesi terburuk sejak Perang Dunia II. Meningkatnya kekhawatiran terhadap sistem finansial Eropa dan perbankan di AS, masih meningkatkan permintaan untuk dolar terhadap ero, dalam kondisi teknikal euro dolar yang overbought. Terkoreksinya harga minyak dari level tertinggi $ 63.45/barel kemarin setelah OPEC mempertahankan output minyak dalam pertemuan di Wina hari ini, mendorong profit-taking posisi long (buy) euro dolar. Spekulasi pengajuan kebangkrutan General Motor Corp dan Chrysler LLC AS pada pekan ini, diikuti rilisan data consumer confidence euro bulan Mei diperkirakan membaik menjadi -30 dar -31 dan sejumlah data penting dari AS, dapat memicu risk aversion yang berpotensi melemahkan euro jika data tercatat dibawh perkiraan pasar.
USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
95.38 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.5925 1.6085 (27/05) 1.3502 (23/01)
Yen melemah ke level terendah Y 96.58 di sesi Asia hari ini setelah indeks saham Nikkei 225 mengalami kenaikan setelah terpuruk di awal sesi perdagangan di tengah memburuknya kondisi ekonomi Jepang, karena anjloknya data penjualan ritel Jepang bulan April dan laporan investor Jepang meningkatkan pembelian obligasi di luar negeri dalam 1 bulan terakhir. Yen juga melemah terhadap euro ke level terendah 2-pekan karena spekulasi investor Jepang akan membeli aset di luar negeri yang lebih banyak berkat signal resesi global telah mereda. Berdasarkan laporan dari Menteri Keuangan hari ini, investor Jepang membeli 641.1 miliar yen ($ 6.6 miliar) surat berharga dan obligasi yang lebih banyak dibandingkan yang mereka jual di pekan yang berakhir pada 23 Mei, net buying terbesar dalam 1 bulan. Sementara data Retail Sales Jepang anjlok 2.8% untuk bulan ke-8, setelah direvisi menurun 3.8% di bulan Maret, menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang yen. Isu kebangkrutan GM Corp & Chrysler LLC AS, diikuti kekhawatiran terhadap sistem perbankan AS, masih dapat membebani kinerja yen, menjelang sejumlah data penting ekonomi AS hari ini.
Pound sterling menguat di atas level $ 1.60 terhadap dolar untuk pertama kali dalam hampir 7 bulan karena spekulasi krisis finansial terburuk akan berakhir, meningkatkan permintaan untuk aset yang berdemominasi dalam bentuk mata uang pound Inggris. Indeks harga saham FTSE 350 bank Inggris menguat kemarin. Pound sempat menguat ke $ 1.6085 kemarin, setelah data Existing Home Sales AS meningkat lebih tinggi dari prediksi. Pound juga mendapatkan keuntungan dari hampir seperempat dari total 220 fund yang mengikuti survei dari Merrill Lynch pada pekan lalu, menunjukkan bahwa pound berada dalam kondisi undervalued, karena penurunan pound sebesar 19% dalam 12 bulan terahir membuat pound menjadi menarik untuk investor yang berpikir paket stimulus pemerintah akan mengeluarkan ekonomi global dari resesi. Sementara lelang Treasury 5-tahun AS $ 35 miliar berjalan sukses, meningkatkan permintaan untuk dolar terhadap pound. Sementara imbas penurunan rating kredit AS dan spekulasi data ekonomi masih membebani pound.
USD-CHF 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
1.0881 1.1965 (12/03) 1.0617 (02/01) 0.7845 0.7890 (27/05) 0.6248 (02/02)
Swiss franc melemah terhadap dolar di sesi perdagangan Asia, karena indeks saham Asia mengalami koreksi penurunan, menjadikan dolar sebagai mata uang safe haven. Swiss franc berkat laporan FDIC mengklasifikasikan 305 bank di AS sebagai bermasalah dan total aset yang bermasalah meningkat 38% menjadi $ 220 miliar, level tertinggi sejak 1993. Spekulasi General Motor Corp AS akan mengajukan kebangkrutan pada pekan ini, memulihkan permintaan untuk aset yang lebih aman seperti dolar. Kebangkrutan General Motor Corp AS menjadi hampir pasti setelah perusahaan kemarin gagal membujuk pemegang obligasi untuk mengambil equity yang dapat ditukar dengan hutang senilai $ 27 miliar. Langkah GM Corp tersebut akan diikuti oleh pengajuan kebangkrutan oleh Chrysler LLC Corp, dimana mendorong dolar menjadi mata uang safe haven. Sebelumnya semalam AS merilis Existing Home Sales yang meningkat 2.9% menjadi 4.68 juta unit, sempat mendorong aksi pembel;ian CHF. Sementara lelang Treasury 5-tahun AS $ 35 miliar berjalan sukses, kembali membebani pasar saham dan komoditi, mendorong pelemahan CHF terhadap dolar.
Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) mengalami koreksi penurunan di sesi Asia hari ini, setelah dolar menguat terhadap mata uang Eropa dan yen Jepang setelah laporan suksesnya lelang Treasury AS 5-tahun sebesar $ 35 miliar semalam dan munculnya kekhawatiran terhadap sistem perbankan di AS setelah FDIC AS melaporkan 305 bank d AS bermasalah, yang meningkatkan permintaan untuk dolar AS sebagai mata uang safe haven. Aussie terpukul setelah laporan investasi bisnis Australia anjlok untuk pertama kali dalam 6 kuartal terakhir di di Q1, anjlok 8.9%. meski sebelumnya dolar Selandia Baru mendapatkan support dari laporan Standard & Poors menaikkan pandangan rating hutang negara menjadi stabil dari negatif, ikut menopang kinerja aussie. Menteri keuangan Selandia Baru Bill English mengatakan defisit anggaran akan membengkak menjadi NZ$ 11.87 miliar ($ 7.3 miliar) hingga 30 juni 2010. Meningkatnya kekhawatiran terhadap sistem perbankan AS dan data ekonomi AS malam ini dapat membebani kinerja aussie dan kiwi.
Technical Analysis
(-15p+50p closed sell 1.850) EUR-USD menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola pennant dalam uptrend channel diikuti pola candle long bearish candle, seharusnya masih memberikan tekanan kepada euro hari ini. Indikator teknikal MACD, stochastic masih uptrend kendati overbought, meski ADX terkoreksi turun yang memberikan indikasi bahwa potensi kenaikan euro dapat terjadi waktu dekat. Perpotongan 20-day MA (1.3608) & 200-day MA (1.3384) menunjukkan golde cross, memberikan support kepada euro dolar. Support berada di 1.3790 (support line). Euro dalam proses koreksi wave minute 4 dalam minor C zig zag - wave intermediate 4 menunjukkan potensi toppish di kisaran $ 1.42. Buy break 1.3870 target di 1.4000 stop 50p, sell 1.4000 target 1.330 stop 30p, Buy di 1.3730 target 1.4000, stop 60p. Sell 1.3850 target 1.3730 stop 50p.
(+60p-50p) USDJPY masih menunjukkan pola head & shoulder dan bearish downtrend channel, dimana penutupan diatas 96.28 (upper channel) untuk mengarah ke target 98.74 (downtrend line). Sementara signal positif muncul dari pola candle bullish continuation, indikator ADX koreksi turun di saat terjadi rebound, meski MACD dan Stochastic menunjukkan oversold, dapat mendukung potensi kenaikan pada hari ini. Jika ditutup dibawah level 96.28 target 94.62 (middle channel line terutama masih berada di bawah 97.27 (200-day MA) Support berada di 94.28 (50% FR))/93.78 (low 22/5). Sell 97.20 target 96.00 stop 97.70, sell break 95.90 target 95.00 stop 50p. Sell 98.70 target 96.00 stop 50p.
(+180p, +30p). GBP-USD menunjukkan trend bullish karena berada dalam uptrend channel dalam diagonal triangle meski menunjukkan signal negatif dari candle shooting star meski sempat mencapai level tertinggi 1.6085, dapat memutarbalikkan trend bullish menjadi netral jika GBP gagal ditutup diatas 1.5778 (61.8 FE). Indikator MACD, Stochastic uptrend, kendati ADX menunjukkan flat, potensi penurunan terbatas. Crossingnya 10-day MA (1.5688) & 200-day MA (1,5511), dapat menopang GBP, selama bertahan di atas 1.5577 (support line) target 1.6088 (50%FR). Analisa EW menunjukkan wave motive minute 4 dalam wave impulse 3. Buy 1.5780 target 1.5950 stop 70p. Sell 1.5940 target 1.5800 stop 1.5980. Buy break 1.5975 target 1.6090 stop 60p. Sell 1.6150 target 1.5800 stop 50p. (hold sell 0.7820 target 0.7700 stop 0.7820) AUD-USD menunjukkan potensi penurunan berkat pola long bearish candle & tweezer top didukung oleh terkoreksinya ADX, stochastic dan MACD yang overbought, seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan aud hari ini. Meski trend masih bullish selama bertahan di atas 0.76754 (downward channel), untuk target 0.7898/0.7935. Elliot wave menunjukkan wave impulse minor 3 dalam koreksi wave intermediate C dalam primary B. Sell 0.7920 target 0.7780 stop 60p, Buy 0.7700 target 0.7850 (closing) stop 45p, sell break 0.7660 target 0.7550 stop 60p. Sell 0.8000 target 0.7800.
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
IHSG Menunggu Konfirmasi Breakout Wave Impulse
Market Review
Aksi pemburuan saham unggulan yang memiliki fundamental solid (pemberian dividen, rekomendasi Buy oleh analis asing dan sensitif terhadap isu suku bunga dan inflasi), berperan angkat IHSG mendekati level 1,900 kemarin. Meski laju penguatan IHSG dibatasi oleh terkoreksinya saham dari grup Bakrie (BUMI mengalami net outflow di bulan ini dan analis mempertahankan rekomendasi BUMI: underperforms). Imbas penguatan saham Wall Street & regional Asia kemarin, karena positifnya data Consumer Confidence AS, ikut memberikan sentimen positif kepada IHSG. IHSG gagal ditutup diatas 1,900 untuk ketiga kalinya. IHSG ditutup menguat 35.257 poin (1.898%), ditutup di 1,892.843, total nilai transaksi di BEI tercatat Rp 4.591 triliun. Investor asing membukukan net buy Rp 195.94 miliar dari net sell Rp 140 juta hari Selasa (25/05).
Mayoritas indeks saham di Asia-Pacific menguat kemarin, terutama indeks Hong Kong melesat mendekati level 18,000, berkat laporan saham General Motor Corp AS akan diambil alih pemerintah AS dan spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi global setelah data ekonomi AS tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan pasar.
IHSG Outlook
IHSG diperkirakan masih dapat melanjutkan laju kenaikan hari ini, karena bayangan positif dari sejumlah sentimen yang menopang kinerja indeks, seperti euphoria laporan pembagian dividen dan imbas kenaikan harga komoditi minyak (ditutup diatas 200-day MA; teknikal Uptrend menjelang OPEC Meeting hari ini) dapat mengangkat harga saham pertambangan batubara dan logam, meski penurunan harga cpo dapat membatasi kenaikan di sektor komoditi. Sementara spekulasi penurunan inflasi bulan Mei dan suku bunga BI di pekan dapat memberikan support kepada saham finansial kendati isu penurunan rating 10 bank lokal oleh Moody’s Investor Services dapat membebani kinerja saham perbankan. Meski potensi kenaikan IHSG dapat dibatasi oleh technical rejection (double top daily), kekhawatiran mengenai latihan militer Korea Utara dimana dapat menggangu stabilitas geopolitik dan isu negatif dari FDIC AS memperlihatkan sejumlah masalah di bank AS.
Stock Picks:
* ISAT
* SGRO
Global Outlook
Munculnya sentimen negatif dari Federal Deposit Insurance Corp AS menunjukkan laporan masalah perbankan meningkat ke level tertinggi 15-tahun mendorong kekhawatiran krisis finansial masih jauh dari akhir, diikuti laporan 70% saham General Motor Corp AS akan diambil alih AS dan menyusul Chrysler LLC Corp akan mengajukan kebangkrutan di pekan ini dan isu latihan militer Korea Utara masih membayangi kinerja indeks saham Asia. Kendati data consumer confidence AS (dirilis 26/05) dan Existing Home Sales AS semalam (tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan +2.9%; 4.68 juta unit) meningkatkan spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi global, dapat memberikan support kepada indeks regional Asia.
Technical Analysis:
Seperti diperkirakan sebelumnya, IHSG masih berada dalam fase konsolidasi (indikator ADX terkoreksi turun) dimana pergerakan penurunan dan kenaikan baru-baru terlihat lemah dengan tedensi untuk breakout triple top di 1905/1907 highs dalam pola uptrend diagonal triangle yang mendukung analisa Elliot wave bahwa IHSG saat ini berada dalam proses minute wave iii dalam minor wave impulse 5 dalam siklus koreksi intermediate wave 4, untuk target 1,950 (50% FR)/2,027 (161.8 FE) selama masih ditutup harian di atas 1,771 (downtrend channel).Sementara support di 1,881 (10-day MA)/1,849 (20-day MA) diperkirakan masih dapat terjaga.
Resistance: 1949.94/1928.11/1919.29/1910.47. PP 1884.44
Support : 1875.63/1866.81/1853.79/1840.78
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 1,870-1,930)
www.strategydesk.co.id
www.universalbroker.co.id UBI Newsletter halaman 1 vol 212 (code TF)
Aksi pemburuan saham unggulan yang memiliki fundamental solid (pemberian dividen, rekomendasi Buy oleh analis asing dan sensitif terhadap isu suku bunga dan inflasi), berperan angkat IHSG mendekati level 1,900 kemarin. Meski laju penguatan IHSG dibatasi oleh terkoreksinya saham dari grup Bakrie (BUMI mengalami net outflow di bulan ini dan analis mempertahankan rekomendasi BUMI: underperforms). Imbas penguatan saham Wall Street & regional Asia kemarin, karena positifnya data Consumer Confidence AS, ikut memberikan sentimen positif kepada IHSG. IHSG gagal ditutup diatas 1,900 untuk ketiga kalinya. IHSG ditutup menguat 35.257 poin (1.898%), ditutup di 1,892.843, total nilai transaksi di BEI tercatat Rp 4.591 triliun. Investor asing membukukan net buy Rp 195.94 miliar dari net sell Rp 140 juta hari Selasa (25/05).
Mayoritas indeks saham di Asia-Pacific menguat kemarin, terutama indeks Hong Kong melesat mendekati level 18,000, berkat laporan saham General Motor Corp AS akan diambil alih pemerintah AS dan spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi global setelah data ekonomi AS tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan pasar.
IHSG Outlook
IHSG diperkirakan masih dapat melanjutkan laju kenaikan hari ini, karena bayangan positif dari sejumlah sentimen yang menopang kinerja indeks, seperti euphoria laporan pembagian dividen dan imbas kenaikan harga komoditi minyak (ditutup diatas 200-day MA; teknikal Uptrend menjelang OPEC Meeting hari ini) dapat mengangkat harga saham pertambangan batubara dan logam, meski penurunan harga cpo dapat membatasi kenaikan di sektor komoditi. Sementara spekulasi penurunan inflasi bulan Mei dan suku bunga BI di pekan dapat memberikan support kepada saham finansial kendati isu penurunan rating 10 bank lokal oleh Moody’s Investor Services dapat membebani kinerja saham perbankan. Meski potensi kenaikan IHSG dapat dibatasi oleh technical rejection (double top daily), kekhawatiran mengenai latihan militer Korea Utara dimana dapat menggangu stabilitas geopolitik dan isu negatif dari FDIC AS memperlihatkan sejumlah masalah di bank AS.
Stock Picks:
* ISAT
* SGRO
Global Outlook
Munculnya sentimen negatif dari Federal Deposit Insurance Corp AS menunjukkan laporan masalah perbankan meningkat ke level tertinggi 15-tahun mendorong kekhawatiran krisis finansial masih jauh dari akhir, diikuti laporan 70% saham General Motor Corp AS akan diambil alih AS dan menyusul Chrysler LLC Corp akan mengajukan kebangkrutan di pekan ini dan isu latihan militer Korea Utara masih membayangi kinerja indeks saham Asia. Kendati data consumer confidence AS (dirilis 26/05) dan Existing Home Sales AS semalam (tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan +2.9%; 4.68 juta unit) meningkatkan spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi global, dapat memberikan support kepada indeks regional Asia.
Technical Analysis:
Seperti diperkirakan sebelumnya, IHSG masih berada dalam fase konsolidasi (indikator ADX terkoreksi turun) dimana pergerakan penurunan dan kenaikan baru-baru terlihat lemah dengan tedensi untuk breakout triple top di 1905/1907 highs dalam pola uptrend diagonal triangle yang mendukung analisa Elliot wave bahwa IHSG saat ini berada dalam proses minute wave iii dalam minor wave impulse 5 dalam siklus koreksi intermediate wave 4, untuk target 1,950 (50% FR)/2,027 (161.8 FE) selama masih ditutup harian di atas 1,771 (downtrend channel).Sementara support di 1,881 (10-day MA)/1,849 (20-day MA) diperkirakan masih dapat terjaga.
Resistance: 1949.94/1928.11/1919.29/1910.47. PP 1884.44
Support : 1875.63/1866.81/1853.79/1840.78
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 1,870-1,930)
www.strategydesk.co.id
www.universalbroker.co.id UBI Newsletter halaman 1 vol 212 (code TF)
Regional Kembali Melanjutkan Trend Bullish
SSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
9470 9375 9530 9275 9550 9410 9650 9275 9340 9380 9485 9550 9590
Commentary
Secara teknikal, SSIM9 berada dalam pola uptrend channel, meski ada signal negatif dari pola candle daily belt hold dan indikator teknikal stochastic daily crossing (K% & D%), MACD masih uptrend dan ADX menunjukkan kenaikan, mendukung perkiraan penutupan indeks dibawah 9286 (uptrend line) terlihat lemah, dan berpotensi mengarah naik ke target 9590 (100.0 FE. Sementara support berada di 9315 (10-day MA)/9187 (20-day MA)/8900 (support line daily) yang seharusnya masih menopang kinerja uptrend indeks dalam beberapa hari mendatang. Perkiraan range hari ini: 9200-9600.
Rekomendasi : Buy break 9540 target 9690, stop 100p, Buy 9,330 target 9560 stop 100p, Sell 9690 target 9350. (+25p)
KSM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
174.40 175.0 178.9 174.0 178.9 176.1 179.9 166.9 177.0 171.9 177.0 180.1 182.0
Commentary
Secara teknikal, KSM9 masih berada dalam kondisi uptrend, meski karena masih berada dalam uptrend channel dan menunjukkan pola candle tweezer bottom. Indikator teknikal menunjukkan signal negatif ditunjukkan oleh daily candle long black, stochastic daily menunjukkan dead cross, MACD kendati uptrend tapi terkoreksi turun, ADX terlihat flat lemah menunjukkan potensi penurunan hari ini terbatas. Selama indeks ditutup diatas downtrend support line 173.33, potensi kenaikan masih terbuka. Resistance berada di 179.30 (61.8 FE))/183.10 (100.0 FE). Sementara trend dapat berbalik bearish jika indeks ditutup dibawah 173.30, untuk target 170.00 (50.0 FR)/166.70 (38.2% FR)). Perkiraan range hari ini: 170-178.00
Rekomendasi : Sell break 173.00 target 167.00 stop 100p, buybreak 176.80 target 179.30 stop 60p. Buy 170.00 target 176.00. sell 179.30 target 176.0. (-100p+250p).
HSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
16920 16953 17344 16853 17344 17031 17444 16663 16946 17402 18141 18424 18880
Commentary
Secara teknikal, minimnya chart teknikal indeks yang menunjukkan breakout level 17550 ke level tertinggi 17967, menunjukkan rising window dan pola candle long bullish seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan ke target 18,140/18880 jika masih ditutup diatas 200-day MA di 16,230. Perkiraan range hari ini : 17600-18.100.
Rekomendasi : Sell 18140 target 17800 (or closing) stop 100 p. buy 17600 target 17900, stop 60 poin. Sell break 17550 target 16960 stop 100p. Buy 16960 target 17250 stop 100p (-300p-60p, buy break 16570 was done)
9470 9375 9530 9275 9550 9410 9650 9275 9340 9380 9485 9550 9590
Commentary
Secara teknikal, SSIM9 berada dalam pola uptrend channel, meski ada signal negatif dari pola candle daily belt hold dan indikator teknikal stochastic daily crossing (K% & D%), MACD masih uptrend dan ADX menunjukkan kenaikan, mendukung perkiraan penutupan indeks dibawah 9286 (uptrend line) terlihat lemah, dan berpotensi mengarah naik ke target 9590 (100.0 FE. Sementara support berada di 9315 (10-day MA)/9187 (20-day MA)/8900 (support line daily) yang seharusnya masih menopang kinerja uptrend indeks dalam beberapa hari mendatang. Perkiraan range hari ini: 9200-9600.
Rekomendasi : Buy break 9540 target 9690, stop 100p, Buy 9,330 target 9560 stop 100p, Sell 9690 target 9350. (+25p)
KSM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
174.40 175.0 178.9 174.0 178.9 176.1 179.9 166.9 177.0 171.9 177.0 180.1 182.0
Commentary
Secara teknikal, KSM9 masih berada dalam kondisi uptrend, meski karena masih berada dalam uptrend channel dan menunjukkan pola candle tweezer bottom. Indikator teknikal menunjukkan signal negatif ditunjukkan oleh daily candle long black, stochastic daily menunjukkan dead cross, MACD kendati uptrend tapi terkoreksi turun, ADX terlihat flat lemah menunjukkan potensi penurunan hari ini terbatas. Selama indeks ditutup diatas downtrend support line 173.33, potensi kenaikan masih terbuka. Resistance berada di 179.30 (61.8 FE))/183.10 (100.0 FE). Sementara trend dapat berbalik bearish jika indeks ditutup dibawah 173.30, untuk target 170.00 (50.0 FR)/166.70 (38.2% FR)). Perkiraan range hari ini: 170-178.00
Rekomendasi : Sell break 173.00 target 167.00 stop 100p, buybreak 176.80 target 179.30 stop 60p. Buy 170.00 target 176.00. sell 179.30 target 176.0. (-100p+250p).
HSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
16920 16953 17344 16853 17344 17031 17444 16663 16946 17402 18141 18424 18880
Commentary
Secara teknikal, minimnya chart teknikal indeks yang menunjukkan breakout level 17550 ke level tertinggi 17967, menunjukkan rising window dan pola candle long bullish seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan ke target 18,140/18880 jika masih ditutup diatas 200-day MA di 16,230. Perkiraan range hari ini : 17600-18.100.
Rekomendasi : Sell 18140 target 17800 (or closing) stop 100 p. buy 17600 target 17900, stop 60 poin. Sell break 17550 target 16960 stop 100p. Buy 16960 target 17250 stop 100p (-300p-60p, buy break 16570 was done)
Analisa Saham Indonesia (BUMI, PTBA, UNTR, ADRO, BYAN, TLKM, ITMG, BBNI)
Merrill Lynch Upgrade Indo coal stocks
Daisy Suryo upgrades Indonesian coal stocks as potential M&As in the sector and improving outlook could trigger sector re-rating. Her Buys are PTBA, UNTR, ADRO, and BYAN. PTBA - PO raised 86% to Rp14,900; UNTR - PO raised 25% to Rp12,500; ADRO - PO raised 72% to Rp1,480; BYAN - PO raised 135% to Rp4,357; BUMI - maintain Underperform as corporate governance risks has yet to be addressed, but the involvement of strategic investors could be potential game changer; Using similar assumptions, BUMI's valuation could go to Rp3,000.
The Jakarta Composite index will rise 6 percent to 2,000, after rallying 39 percent this year, said Cholis Baidowi, who helps oversee the equivalent of $244 million in Jakarta at Trimegah Securities, Indonesia’s largest publicly traded brokerage. ING Groep NV forecasts the rupiah to climb another 10 percent against the dollar in 2009, after advancing 7 percent.
Citigroup Inc. mengubah rekomendasi PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLKM) dari tahan menjadi beli. Mereka menaikkan target harga TLKM dari semula Rp 6.900 menjadi Rp 8.200. Selain itu, Citigroup juga mengubah rekomendasi PT Indosat Tbk (ISAT) dari jual menjadi tahan. Citigroup menaikkan target harga ISAT dari Rp 4.400 menjadi Rp 5.600.Analis Citigroup Karen Ang dan Anand Ramachandran mengatakan, berkurangnya perang tarif dan membaiknya fundamental ekonomi Indonesia akan mengerek pendapatan kedua emiten telekomunikasi tersebut.
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Daisy Suryo upgrades Indonesian coal stocks as potential M&As in the sector and improving outlook could trigger sector re-rating. Her Buys are PTBA, UNTR, ADRO, and BYAN. PTBA - PO raised 86% to Rp14,900; UNTR - PO raised 25% to Rp12,500; ADRO - PO raised 72% to Rp1,480; BYAN - PO raised 135% to Rp4,357; BUMI - maintain Underperform as corporate governance risks has yet to be addressed, but the involvement of strategic investors could be potential game changer; Using similar assumptions, BUMI's valuation could go to Rp3,000.
The Jakarta Composite index will rise 6 percent to 2,000, after rallying 39 percent this year, said Cholis Baidowi, who helps oversee the equivalent of $244 million in Jakarta at Trimegah Securities, Indonesia’s largest publicly traded brokerage. ING Groep NV forecasts the rupiah to climb another 10 percent against the dollar in 2009, after advancing 7 percent.
Citigroup Inc. mengubah rekomendasi PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLKM) dari tahan menjadi beli. Mereka menaikkan target harga TLKM dari semula Rp 6.900 menjadi Rp 8.200. Selain itu, Citigroup juga mengubah rekomendasi PT Indosat Tbk (ISAT) dari jual menjadi tahan. Citigroup menaikkan target harga ISAT dari Rp 4.400 menjadi Rp 5.600.Analis Citigroup Karen Ang dan Anand Ramachandran mengatakan, berkurangnya perang tarif dan membaiknya fundamental ekonomi Indonesia akan mengerek pendapatan kedua emiten telekomunikasi tersebut.
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Daily Technical Analysis Forex/DJIA/Gold
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.3922 and 1.3910(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3891, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3857. Break of the latter would result in 1.3812. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3770. Continuation will give 1.3735. Today's resistance: - 1.4017, 1.4040, 1.4075 and 1.4104(main). Break would give 1.4130, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.4147. Break of the latter would result in 1.4172. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.4198. Continuation will give 1.4218.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 95.06, 94.84 and 94.50(main). Break would bring 94.35, where correction is possible. Then 94.02, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 93.80. If a strong impulse, we would see 93.54. Continuation would give 93.37. Today's resistance: - 95.67(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 95.90, where also a correction may be. Then 96.30. If a strong impulse, we would see 96.64. Continuation will give 96.95.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 8413.62 and 8393.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8367.18, where correction also can be. Then follows 8343.79. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8325.00. Continuation will bring 8303.90 and 8281.75. Today's resistance: - 8507.77 and 8528.40(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8552.80, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8578.12, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8606.22. Continuation would bring 8628.73 and 8551.20.
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex | May 27 09 06:51 GMT |
Forex Technical Update
Rupee: Rupee opened stronger at 47.55 after taking resistance from the 38.2% Retracement at 47.92 yesterday as expected also backed by month-end dollar demand by importers and weak stocks. The overall outlook for rupee still remains bullish. Sustained trading below 48.35 (50% Retracement) can bring a re-test of 46.80 support. Exporters should cover their exposures around 47.90 - 48.20 levels. (USD/INR : 47.58). Bullish.
Yen: The Usd/Jpy pair traded in a thin range yesterday. The daily stochastic shows
Gold: Gold plunged to $940 yesterday before closing at $951. We booked profits on yesterday's long position as the daily and 4- hourly charts remain overbought and a retracement upto $930 (cluster support) is on the cards. We maintain our view for going long in Gold around $930 - 935 as the overall bias for gold is bullish.(Gold- 949.72). Bullish
Dollar Index: DX continues to trade above our support target of 80.20; breaking of which can bring further bearishness upto 79.66. The stochastic continues to be flat in the oversold region. A small rebound could be expected from 79.66 support. (DI- 80.28) Bearish.
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank |
EURUSD
Comment: Yesterday's small 'spike low/hanging man' candle hints at a market looking for direction (here and in several major currencies too). As we move towards the pivotal 1.4200 area we feel that implied volatility should leap higher on a sustained break above 15.00%.Strategy: Buy at 1.3950, adding to 1.3800; stop well below 1.3700. Short term target 1.4000, then a lot more with a first measured target at 1.4200 then 1.4550.Direction of Trade: →↗
Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.3932 " 1.4005
1.386 1.4051/1.4060*
1.38 1.41
1.3730* 1.4125
1.37 1.4200*
GBPUSD
Comment: Sneaking to a new high for the year at 1.5982 after two consecutive 'spike low/doji' candles. Cable is overbought but bullish momentum is stronger than it has been since December 2006. Strategy: Buy at 1.5950, adding to 1.5800; stop well below 1.5700. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.6000 for 1.6100/1.6200 short term.
Direction of Trade: →↗
Support Resistance
1.5900 " 1.5982
1.5835 1.6000*
1.5778 1.6100*
1.57 1.6200*
1.5514* 1.64
USDJPY
Comment: Hovering above fairly pivotal support roughly between 94.00 and 94.50, but below a large Ichimoku 'cloud' with moving averages suggesting a short. Implied volatility is expected to pick up over the next two weeks as prices look for direction. We continue to favour a move lower, maybe not this week but probably early in June. Strategy: Sell at 95.45, adding to 96.00; stop above 97.00. First target 94.55, then 93.55.Direction of Trade: →Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
94.93 " 95.51
94.55 95.65
94.25 96
93.85 96.22
93.55* 96.71*
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.3922 and 1.3910(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3891, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3857. Break of the latter would result in 1.3812. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3770. Continuation will give 1.3735. Today's resistance: - 1.4017, 1.4040, 1.4075 and 1.4104(main). Break would give 1.4130, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.4147. Break of the latter would result in 1.4172. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.4198. Continuation will give 1.4218.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 95.06, 94.84 and 94.50(main). Break would bring 94.35, where correction is possible. Then 94.02, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 93.80. If a strong impulse, we would see 93.54. Continuation would give 93.37. Today's resistance: - 95.67(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 95.90, where also a correction may be. Then 96.30. If a strong impulse, we would see 96.64. Continuation will give 96.95.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 8413.62 and 8393.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8367.18, where correction also can be. Then follows 8343.79. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8325.00. Continuation will bring 8303.90 and 8281.75. Today's resistance: - 8507.77 and 8528.40(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8552.80, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8578.12, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8606.22. Continuation would bring 8628.73 and 8551.20.
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex | May 27 09 06:51 GMT |
Forex Technical Update
Rupee: Rupee opened stronger at 47.55 after taking resistance from the 38.2% Retracement at 47.92 yesterday as expected also backed by month-end dollar demand by importers and weak stocks. The overall outlook for rupee still remains bullish. Sustained trading below 48.35 (50% Retracement) can bring a re-test of 46.80 support. Exporters should cover their exposures around 47.90 - 48.20 levels. (USD/INR : 47.58). Bullish.
Yen: The Usd/Jpy pair traded in a thin range yesterday. The daily stochastic shows
Gold: Gold plunged to $940 yesterday before closing at $951. We booked profits on yesterday's long position as the daily and 4- hourly charts remain overbought and a retracement upto $930 (cluster support) is on the cards. We maintain our view for going long in Gold around $930 - 935 as the overall bias for gold is bullish.(Gold- 949.72). Bullish
Dollar Index: DX continues to trade above our support target of 80.20; breaking of which can bring further bearishness upto 79.66. The stochastic continues to be flat in the oversold region. A small rebound could be expected from 79.66 support. (DI- 80.28) Bearish.
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank |
EURUSD
Comment: Yesterday's small 'spike low/hanging man' candle hints at a market looking for direction (here and in several major currencies too). As we move towards the pivotal 1.4200 area we feel that implied volatility should leap higher on a sustained break above 15.00%.Strategy: Buy at 1.3950, adding to 1.3800; stop well below 1.3700. Short term target 1.4000, then a lot more with a first measured target at 1.4200 then 1.4550.Direction of Trade: →↗
Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.3932 " 1.4005
1.386 1.4051/1.4060*
1.38 1.41
1.3730* 1.4125
1.37 1.4200*
GBPUSD
Comment: Sneaking to a new high for the year at 1.5982 after two consecutive 'spike low/doji' candles. Cable is overbought but bullish momentum is stronger than it has been since December 2006. Strategy: Buy at 1.5950, adding to 1.5800; stop well below 1.5700. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.6000 for 1.6100/1.6200 short term.
Direction of Trade: →↗
Support Resistance
1.5900 " 1.5982
1.5835 1.6000*
1.5778 1.6100*
1.57 1.6200*
1.5514* 1.64
USDJPY
Comment: Hovering above fairly pivotal support roughly between 94.00 and 94.50, but below a large Ichimoku 'cloud' with moving averages suggesting a short. Implied volatility is expected to pick up over the next two weeks as prices look for direction. We continue to favour a move lower, maybe not this week but probably early in June. Strategy: Sell at 95.45, adding to 96.00; stop above 97.00. First target 94.55, then 93.55.Direction of Trade: →Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
94.93 " 95.51
94.55 95.65
94.25 96
93.85 96.22
93.55* 96.71*
Risk Appetite Meningkat, Dolar AS Terpuruk
USD Index 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low EUR-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
80.24 89.62 (04/03) 79.63 (02/01) 1.3933 1.4055 (02/01) 1.2459 (04/03)
Dolar AS melemah terhadap mata uang major (kecuali yen) berkat laporan ekonomi AS kemarin menambah bukti ekonomi terbesar di dunia mulai pulih, menurunkan permintaan untuk aset yang lebih aman dan beresiko. Dolar melemah setelah laporan consumer confidence AS bulan Mei melonjak lebih dari perkiraan pasar ke 54.9 di bulan Mei karena harga saham melonjak dan suku bunga mortgage menurun, meski sebelumnya data indeks harga rumah Standard & Poors/Case-Shiller AS mengalami rekor penurunan 18.7% dalam 21 tahun terakhir. Spekulasi laporan Existing Home Sales AS bulan April yang diperkirakan meningkat dari bulan April, mendorong aksi pembelian dolar terhadap yen Jepang. Sebelumnya di sesi pasar Eropa, dolar sempat menguat terhadap euro dan pound berkat laporan ekonomi Jerman yang mengindikasikan ekonomi masih berada dalam resesi dan komentar dari menteri keuangan Jerman mengenai sektor perbankan Jerman mendapatkan aset yang bermasalah ikut memukul sentimen euro terhadap dolar. Dolar menguat semalam berkat kuatnya permintaan untuk lelang Treasury 2-tahun sebesar $ 40 miliar. Hari ini pasar akan mengamati lelang Treasury 5-tahun AS dan data Existing Home Sales, dimana dapat memberikan tekanan kepada dolar.
Euro mengalami penguatan terhadap dolar dan yen di sesi Asia hari ini, berkat penguatan pasar saham Asia Pacific setelah saham Wall Street semalam melejit berkat perkiraan pemlihan ekonomi AS dari data Consumer Confidence AS, yang mendorong investor memburu aset yang lebih aman dan beresiko seperti saham dan komoditi. Spekulasi kenaikan data Existing Home Sales AS bulan April ikut membantu menguatkan euro hingga saat ini. Sebelumnya euro melemah dari level tertinggi 4-bulan kemarin di sesi pasar London, setelah data ekonomi Jerman menunjukkan ekonomi terkontraksi pada laju tercepat dalam 1 dekade terakhir dan produksi industri euro anjlok 26.9%. Sementara kredit macet di sektor finansial Jerman dapat meningkat, meningkatkan kekhawatiran mengenai waktu untuk pemulihan. Hal tersebut sempat melemahkan euro ke level terendah 1.3861, meski akhirnya data consumer confidence dapat mengangkat euro ke level tertinggi 1.3977. Meski potensi penguatan euro terbatas sebelum rilisan data pengangguran Jerman bulan Mei yang diperkirakan meningkat ke 8.4% dan komentar anggota ECB Lorenzo Smaghi sore ini, data ekonomi dan lelang Treasury AS.
USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
95.38 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.5945 1.5942 (22/05) 1.3502 (23/01)
Yen melemah terhadap mata uang yang memiliki suku bunga yang lebih tinggi berkat spekulasi laporan ekonomi AS pekan ini akan memberikan bukti ekonomi AS mulai pulih, menurunkan permintaan untuk aset yang lebih aman dan beresiko seperti saham dan komoditi. Yen melemah terhadap 15 dari 16 mata uang yang paling aktif diperdagangkan sebelum rilisan data Existing Home Sales AS hari ini. Kenaikan indeks saham MSCI Asia Pacific menguat 1.3% dan MSCI World Index menguat 1.7%, diikuti harga minyak yang mencapai level tertinggi $ 62.95 (telah ditutup diatas 200-day MA), berperan melemahkan yen terhadap dolar dan euro. Yen sebelumnya menguat ke level 94.52 setelah investor melakukan risk aversion berkat komentar negatif dari pejabat keuangan Jerman yang memicu kekhawatiran kredit macet di Jerman dan lemahnya data GDP Q1 Jerman dan Industrial Production, meski akhirnya terkoreksi turun berkat kuatnya kenaikan consumer confidence AS semalam. Investor hari ini akan mengamati data Existing Home Sales AS dan lelang Treasury 5-tahun AS.
Pound sterling mengalami penguatan lebih lanjut terhadap dolar dan euro di sesi Asia hari ini, berkat kenaikan indeks saham regional Asia dan harga minyak yang meningkat ke $ 62.95/barel, setelah optimisme pasar meningkat berkat kenaikan data consumer confidence AS semalam dan spekulasi data Existing Home Sales AS nanti malam dapat menunjukkan kenaikan lebih lanjut. Investor global memburu aset yang memiliki suku bunga yang lebih tinggi dan lebih beresiko, didbandingkan dolar yang kemarin sempat mendapatkan status safe haven, di tengah kekhawatiran mengenai ekonomi Jerman dan Eropa. Sebelumnya pound sempat melemah ke level terendah $ 1.5778 terhadap dolar berkat tekanan di mata uang euro terhadap dolar dan yen setelah data dari Euro dan Jerman tercatat lebih buruk dari perkiraan pasar. Potensi penguatan pound masih terbuka jika data ekonomi AS nanti malam tercatat diatas perkiraan pasar dan lelang Treasury 5-tahun AS berjalan sukses.
USD-CHF 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
1.0881 1.1965 (12/03) 1.0617 (02/01) 0.7845 0.7886 (27/05) 0.6248 (02/02)
Swiss franc menguat terhadap dolar berkat laporan ekonomi AS kemarin menambah bukti ekonomi terbesar di dunia mulai pulih, menurunkan permintaan untuk aset yang lebih aman dan beresiko. Swiss franc menguat setelah laporan consumer confidence AS bulan Mei melonjak lebih dari perkiraan pasar ke 54.9 di bulan Mei karena harga saham melonjak dan suku bunga mortgage menurun, meski sebelumnya data indeks harga rumah Standard & Poors/Case-Shiller AS mengalami rekor penurunan 18.7% dalam 21 tahun terakhir. Spekulasi laporan Existing Home Sales AS bulan April yang diperkirakan meningkat dari bulan April, mendorong aksi pembelian Swiss franc terhadap dolar. Meski di sesi pasar Eropa kemarin, Swiss franc sempat melemah terhadap dolar hingga mencapai level terendah 1.0925 berkat laporan ekonomi Jerman yang mengindikasikan ekonomi masih berada dalam resesi dan komentar dari menteri keuangan Jerman mengenai sektor perbankan Jerman mendapatkan aset yang bermasalah ikut memukul sentimen euro terhadap dolar. Swiss franc menguat semalam berkat kuatnya permintaan untuk lelang Treasury 2-tahun sebesar $ 40 miliar. Hari ini pasar akan mengamati lelang Treasury 5-tahun AS dan data Existing Home Sales, dimana dapat memberikan momentum penguatan kepada CHF.
Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) mengalami penguatan di sesi Asia hari ini berkat kenaikan indeks saham MSCI Asia Pacific hari ini, mengikuti kenaikan saham Wall Street dan kenaikan harga minyak (level $ 63/barel). Meningkatnya optimisme terhadap pemulihan ekonomi AS memberikan momentum kepada mata uang yang memiliki suku bunga lebih tinggi dibandingkan dolar dan yen. Meski kemarin di sesi Eropa, aussie dan kiwi terkoreksi turun mengikuti terkoreksinya mata uang euro setelah mendapatkan sentimen negatif dari meningkatnya kekhawatiran terhadap kondisi finansial dan ekonomi Jerman dan euro, meredam permintaan untuk aset yang beresiko. Di sesi Asia, kiwi sempat tertekan dari level tertinggi sejak bulan Oktober, setelah laporan Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd, eksportir susu terbesar di dunia, memangkas prediksi harga susu. Sementara aussie terbebani laporan pengiriman ke luar negeri Jepang anjlok 39.1% di bulan lalu. Indeks Leading Economic Australia dari Wetpac Banking Corp meningkat 0.3% menjadi 247.9 poin di bulan Maret. Jika data perumahan AS tercatat diatas perkiraan pasar dan lelang Treasury AS sukses dapat menguatkan Aussie dan kiwi.
Technical Analysis
(-60+p) EUR-USD masih berada dalam uptrend channel diikuti pola candle bullish hammer yang memberikan signal positif untuk euro pada hari ini. Indikator teknikal MACD, stochastic masih uptrend, meski ADX terkoreksi turun yang memberikan indikasi bahwa potensi penurunan euro terbatas. Perpotongan 20-day MA (1.3608) dengan 200-day MA (1.3384) yang menunjukkan golde cross, masih memberikan support kepada euro dolar. Formasi double top dapat membatasi potensi kenaikan. Support berada di 1.3868 (61.8 FE). Euro berada dalam wave minute 3 dalam minor C zig zag - wave intermediate 4 menunjukkan potensi toppish di kisaran $ 1.42. Buy break 1.4055 target di 1.4170 stop 50p, sell 1.4030 target 1.330 stop 30p, Buy di 1.3900 target 1.4030, stop 60p. Sell break 1.3850 target 1.3730
(+60p) (Hold buy 95.30 target 95.90 stop 94.80). USDJPY masih menunjukkan pola bearish downtrend channel, meski hari ini telah ditutup diatas middle channel 95.07 hari ini dalam small uptrend channel, seharusnya menetralkan tekanan bearish pada hari ini. Sementara signal positif muncul dari pola candle spinning top, indikator ADX koreksi turun di saat terjadi rebound, meski MACD dan Stochastic masih dpwntrend, dapat membatasi potensi kenaikan pada hari ini. Jika ditutup diatas level 96.48 (upper channel)/97.30 (200-day MA) Support berada di 94.25 (50% FR))/93.78 (low 22/5). Sell 96.40 target 95.00 stop 96.90, buy break 96.00 target 96.60 stop 30p. Buy 94.50 target 96.00 stop 50p.
(-50+150p). GBP-USD menunjukkan trend bullish karena berada dalam pola uptrend channel, meski menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola candle dojis meski sempat mencapai level tertinggi baru di 1.5968, dapat memutarbalikkan trend bullish menjadi netral jika GBP gagal ditutup diatas 1.5968. Indikator MACD, Stochastic masih uptrend, kendati ADX menunjukkan flat, mengindikasikan potensi kenaikan terbatas, meski crossingnya 10-day MA (1.5519) dan 200-day MA (1,5524), seharusnya menopang GBP hari ini, selama bertahan di atas 1.5525 (support line) target 1.6088 (50%FR). Analisa EW menunjukkan wave impulse 3 dalam intermediate wave 4. Sell 1.6040 & 1.6090 target 1.5850 stop 70p. Sell break 1.5900 target 1.5800 stop 50p. Sell 1.5750 target 1.5520 stop 50p AUD-USD menunjukkan potensi penurunan berkat pola bearish hanging man didukung oleh terkoreksinya ADX, stochastic dan MACD yang overbought, seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan aud hari ini. Meski trend masih bullish selama bertahan di atas downward channel 0.7736 (10-day MA) dan 00.7676 (downward channel), untuk target 0.7898/0.7935. Elliot wave menunjukkan wave impulse minor 3 dalam koreksi wave intermediate C dalam primary B. Sell 0.7920 target 0.7780 stop 60p, Sell break 0.7820 target 0.7700 (closing) stop 50p, buy 0.7720 target 0.7800 stop 60p. Sell 0.8000 target 0.7800.
80.24 89.62 (04/03) 79.63 (02/01) 1.3933 1.4055 (02/01) 1.2459 (04/03)
Dolar AS melemah terhadap mata uang major (kecuali yen) berkat laporan ekonomi AS kemarin menambah bukti ekonomi terbesar di dunia mulai pulih, menurunkan permintaan untuk aset yang lebih aman dan beresiko. Dolar melemah setelah laporan consumer confidence AS bulan Mei melonjak lebih dari perkiraan pasar ke 54.9 di bulan Mei karena harga saham melonjak dan suku bunga mortgage menurun, meski sebelumnya data indeks harga rumah Standard & Poors/Case-Shiller AS mengalami rekor penurunan 18.7% dalam 21 tahun terakhir. Spekulasi laporan Existing Home Sales AS bulan April yang diperkirakan meningkat dari bulan April, mendorong aksi pembelian dolar terhadap yen Jepang. Sebelumnya di sesi pasar Eropa, dolar sempat menguat terhadap euro dan pound berkat laporan ekonomi Jerman yang mengindikasikan ekonomi masih berada dalam resesi dan komentar dari menteri keuangan Jerman mengenai sektor perbankan Jerman mendapatkan aset yang bermasalah ikut memukul sentimen euro terhadap dolar. Dolar menguat semalam berkat kuatnya permintaan untuk lelang Treasury 2-tahun sebesar $ 40 miliar. Hari ini pasar akan mengamati lelang Treasury 5-tahun AS dan data Existing Home Sales, dimana dapat memberikan tekanan kepada dolar.
Euro mengalami penguatan terhadap dolar dan yen di sesi Asia hari ini, berkat penguatan pasar saham Asia Pacific setelah saham Wall Street semalam melejit berkat perkiraan pemlihan ekonomi AS dari data Consumer Confidence AS, yang mendorong investor memburu aset yang lebih aman dan beresiko seperti saham dan komoditi. Spekulasi kenaikan data Existing Home Sales AS bulan April ikut membantu menguatkan euro hingga saat ini. Sebelumnya euro melemah dari level tertinggi 4-bulan kemarin di sesi pasar London, setelah data ekonomi Jerman menunjukkan ekonomi terkontraksi pada laju tercepat dalam 1 dekade terakhir dan produksi industri euro anjlok 26.9%. Sementara kredit macet di sektor finansial Jerman dapat meningkat, meningkatkan kekhawatiran mengenai waktu untuk pemulihan. Hal tersebut sempat melemahkan euro ke level terendah 1.3861, meski akhirnya data consumer confidence dapat mengangkat euro ke level tertinggi 1.3977. Meski potensi penguatan euro terbatas sebelum rilisan data pengangguran Jerman bulan Mei yang diperkirakan meningkat ke 8.4% dan komentar anggota ECB Lorenzo Smaghi sore ini, data ekonomi dan lelang Treasury AS.
USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
95.38 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.5945 1.5942 (22/05) 1.3502 (23/01)
Yen melemah terhadap mata uang yang memiliki suku bunga yang lebih tinggi berkat spekulasi laporan ekonomi AS pekan ini akan memberikan bukti ekonomi AS mulai pulih, menurunkan permintaan untuk aset yang lebih aman dan beresiko seperti saham dan komoditi. Yen melemah terhadap 15 dari 16 mata uang yang paling aktif diperdagangkan sebelum rilisan data Existing Home Sales AS hari ini. Kenaikan indeks saham MSCI Asia Pacific menguat 1.3% dan MSCI World Index menguat 1.7%, diikuti harga minyak yang mencapai level tertinggi $ 62.95 (telah ditutup diatas 200-day MA), berperan melemahkan yen terhadap dolar dan euro. Yen sebelumnya menguat ke level 94.52 setelah investor melakukan risk aversion berkat komentar negatif dari pejabat keuangan Jerman yang memicu kekhawatiran kredit macet di Jerman dan lemahnya data GDP Q1 Jerman dan Industrial Production, meski akhirnya terkoreksi turun berkat kuatnya kenaikan consumer confidence AS semalam. Investor hari ini akan mengamati data Existing Home Sales AS dan lelang Treasury 5-tahun AS.
Pound sterling mengalami penguatan lebih lanjut terhadap dolar dan euro di sesi Asia hari ini, berkat kenaikan indeks saham regional Asia dan harga minyak yang meningkat ke $ 62.95/barel, setelah optimisme pasar meningkat berkat kenaikan data consumer confidence AS semalam dan spekulasi data Existing Home Sales AS nanti malam dapat menunjukkan kenaikan lebih lanjut. Investor global memburu aset yang memiliki suku bunga yang lebih tinggi dan lebih beresiko, didbandingkan dolar yang kemarin sempat mendapatkan status safe haven, di tengah kekhawatiran mengenai ekonomi Jerman dan Eropa. Sebelumnya pound sempat melemah ke level terendah $ 1.5778 terhadap dolar berkat tekanan di mata uang euro terhadap dolar dan yen setelah data dari Euro dan Jerman tercatat lebih buruk dari perkiraan pasar. Potensi penguatan pound masih terbuka jika data ekonomi AS nanti malam tercatat diatas perkiraan pasar dan lelang Treasury 5-tahun AS berjalan sukses.
USD-CHF 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
1.0881 1.1965 (12/03) 1.0617 (02/01) 0.7845 0.7886 (27/05) 0.6248 (02/02)
Swiss franc menguat terhadap dolar berkat laporan ekonomi AS kemarin menambah bukti ekonomi terbesar di dunia mulai pulih, menurunkan permintaan untuk aset yang lebih aman dan beresiko. Swiss franc menguat setelah laporan consumer confidence AS bulan Mei melonjak lebih dari perkiraan pasar ke 54.9 di bulan Mei karena harga saham melonjak dan suku bunga mortgage menurun, meski sebelumnya data indeks harga rumah Standard & Poors/Case-Shiller AS mengalami rekor penurunan 18.7% dalam 21 tahun terakhir. Spekulasi laporan Existing Home Sales AS bulan April yang diperkirakan meningkat dari bulan April, mendorong aksi pembelian Swiss franc terhadap dolar. Meski di sesi pasar Eropa kemarin, Swiss franc sempat melemah terhadap dolar hingga mencapai level terendah 1.0925 berkat laporan ekonomi Jerman yang mengindikasikan ekonomi masih berada dalam resesi dan komentar dari menteri keuangan Jerman mengenai sektor perbankan Jerman mendapatkan aset yang bermasalah ikut memukul sentimen euro terhadap dolar. Swiss franc menguat semalam berkat kuatnya permintaan untuk lelang Treasury 2-tahun sebesar $ 40 miliar. Hari ini pasar akan mengamati lelang Treasury 5-tahun AS dan data Existing Home Sales, dimana dapat memberikan momentum penguatan kepada CHF.
Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) mengalami penguatan di sesi Asia hari ini berkat kenaikan indeks saham MSCI Asia Pacific hari ini, mengikuti kenaikan saham Wall Street dan kenaikan harga minyak (level $ 63/barel). Meningkatnya optimisme terhadap pemulihan ekonomi AS memberikan momentum kepada mata uang yang memiliki suku bunga lebih tinggi dibandingkan dolar dan yen. Meski kemarin di sesi Eropa, aussie dan kiwi terkoreksi turun mengikuti terkoreksinya mata uang euro setelah mendapatkan sentimen negatif dari meningkatnya kekhawatiran terhadap kondisi finansial dan ekonomi Jerman dan euro, meredam permintaan untuk aset yang beresiko. Di sesi Asia, kiwi sempat tertekan dari level tertinggi sejak bulan Oktober, setelah laporan Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd, eksportir susu terbesar di dunia, memangkas prediksi harga susu. Sementara aussie terbebani laporan pengiriman ke luar negeri Jepang anjlok 39.1% di bulan lalu. Indeks Leading Economic Australia dari Wetpac Banking Corp meningkat 0.3% menjadi 247.9 poin di bulan Maret. Jika data perumahan AS tercatat diatas perkiraan pasar dan lelang Treasury AS sukses dapat menguatkan Aussie dan kiwi.
Technical Analysis
(-60+p) EUR-USD masih berada dalam uptrend channel diikuti pola candle bullish hammer yang memberikan signal positif untuk euro pada hari ini. Indikator teknikal MACD, stochastic masih uptrend, meski ADX terkoreksi turun yang memberikan indikasi bahwa potensi penurunan euro terbatas. Perpotongan 20-day MA (1.3608) dengan 200-day MA (1.3384) yang menunjukkan golde cross, masih memberikan support kepada euro dolar. Formasi double top dapat membatasi potensi kenaikan. Support berada di 1.3868 (61.8 FE). Euro berada dalam wave minute 3 dalam minor C zig zag - wave intermediate 4 menunjukkan potensi toppish di kisaran $ 1.42. Buy break 1.4055 target di 1.4170 stop 50p, sell 1.4030 target 1.330 stop 30p, Buy di 1.3900 target 1.4030, stop 60p. Sell break 1.3850 target 1.3730
(+60p) (Hold buy 95.30 target 95.90 stop 94.80). USDJPY masih menunjukkan pola bearish downtrend channel, meski hari ini telah ditutup diatas middle channel 95.07 hari ini dalam small uptrend channel, seharusnya menetralkan tekanan bearish pada hari ini. Sementara signal positif muncul dari pola candle spinning top, indikator ADX koreksi turun di saat terjadi rebound, meski MACD dan Stochastic masih dpwntrend, dapat membatasi potensi kenaikan pada hari ini. Jika ditutup diatas level 96.48 (upper channel)/97.30 (200-day MA) Support berada di 94.25 (50% FR))/93.78 (low 22/5). Sell 96.40 target 95.00 stop 96.90, buy break 96.00 target 96.60 stop 30p. Buy 94.50 target 96.00 stop 50p.
(-50+150p). GBP-USD menunjukkan trend bullish karena berada dalam pola uptrend channel, meski menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola candle dojis meski sempat mencapai level tertinggi baru di 1.5968, dapat memutarbalikkan trend bullish menjadi netral jika GBP gagal ditutup diatas 1.5968. Indikator MACD, Stochastic masih uptrend, kendati ADX menunjukkan flat, mengindikasikan potensi kenaikan terbatas, meski crossingnya 10-day MA (1.5519) dan 200-day MA (1,5524), seharusnya menopang GBP hari ini, selama bertahan di atas 1.5525 (support line) target 1.6088 (50%FR). Analisa EW menunjukkan wave impulse 3 dalam intermediate wave 4. Sell 1.6040 & 1.6090 target 1.5850 stop 70p. Sell break 1.5900 target 1.5800 stop 50p. Sell 1.5750 target 1.5520 stop 50p AUD-USD menunjukkan potensi penurunan berkat pola bearish hanging man didukung oleh terkoreksinya ADX, stochastic dan MACD yang overbought, seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan aud hari ini. Meski trend masih bullish selama bertahan di atas downward channel 0.7736 (10-day MA) dan 00.7676 (downward channel), untuk target 0.7898/0.7935. Elliot wave menunjukkan wave impulse minor 3 dalam koreksi wave intermediate C dalam primary B. Sell 0.7920 target 0.7780 stop 60p, Sell break 0.7820 target 0.7700 (closing) stop 50p, buy 0.7720 target 0.7800 stop 60p. Sell 0.8000 target 0.7800.
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Momentum kenaikan IHSG Masih Tetap Terjaga
Market Review
Aksi profit-taking di sejumlah saham komoditi pertambangan batubara, logam dan perkebunan dan perbankan, mendorong IHSG terkoreksi tajam kemarin. Di tengah minimnya isu positif dari dalam negeri dan meningkatnya ketegangan geopolitik regional dari isu tes nuklir Korea Utara di awal pekan ini, telah merontokkan indek saham regional Asia, memberikan imbas negatif kepada IHSG. Mencuatnya skandal finansial di Citi Pacific Securities Indonesia, meredam keinginan investor untuk melakukan perdagangan dan memilih melakukan aksi profit-taking saham di sejumlah unggulan. IHSG sempat menguat di sesi 1, meski akhirnya ditutup turun 33.385 poin (1.77%), ditutup di 1,857.58, dengan total nilai transaksi di BEI tercatat Rp 3.978 triliun. Investor asing membukukan net sell Rp 140 juta dari net buy Rp 78.07 miliar hari Senin (25/05).
Mayoritas indeks saham di Asia-Pacific melemah kemarin, mendorong indeks mengalami penurunan terbesar lebih dari sepekan, berkat spekulasi Korea Utara mungkin meningkatkan latihan militer, meningkatkan ketegangan geopolitik di regional dan harga minyak terkoreksi turun ke $ 60/barel.
IHSG Outlook
Potensi penurunan IHSG hari ini terbatas, kendati minimnya sentimen positif dari dalam negeri dan munculnya sejumlah sentimen negatif dari harga minyak terkoreksi turun menjelang OPEC Meeting 28 Mei (spekulasi OPEC akan pertahankan output minyak & penutupan harga dibawah 200-day MA di $ 61.45) memicu terkoreksinya saham komoditi lokal, laporan saham PT Bumi Resources yang memiliki nilai transaksi harian terbesar di BEI mengalami net outflow sebesar Rp 198 miliar dalam 1 bulan terakhir, mendukung penurunan sebuah koreksi teknikal minor dalam trend bullish jangka pendek. Spekulasi penurunan inflasi bulan Mei dan BI rate pekan depan, seharusnya masih dapat memberikan support kepada IHSG. Sementara faktor regional yang tengah terkoreksi berkat kondisi teknikal yang overbought, mahalnya valuasi dan meningkatnya ketegangan geopolitik dari latihan militer Korea Utara, masih membatasi potensi kenaikan dalam trend bullish IHSG jangka pendek pada hari ini.
Stock Picks:
* META
* UNSP
Global Outlook
Meningkatnya ketegangan geopolitik di regional Asia dari latihan militer Korea Utara dalam 2 hari terakhir, diikuti laporan dari indeks harga rumah AS Standard & Poors/Case Shiller AS yang anjlok 19.1% di Q1 (rekor penurunan dalam 21 tahun) menunjukkan belum pulihnya sektor perumahan AS dari krisis dan meningkatnya kekhawatiran terhadap rating kredit negara di Eropa, seharusnya masih membebani kinerja regional Asia hari ini karena investor global berpotensi melakukan risk aversion dari saham dan komoditi. Tetapi lebih baik dari perkiraan data Consumer Confidence AS bulan Mei (54.7 dari 40.8 di bulan April), seharusnya masih menopang trend bullish indeks regional Asia.
Technical Analysis:
Pola candle daily bearish engulfing dan formasi double top di daily chart yang terlihat negatif untuk IHSG, seharusnya dapat dicounter kondisi uptrend di indikator MACD & Stochastic, pola diagonal triangle, ADX terkoreksi turun mengindikasikan momentum penurunan lemah terlihat lemah. Signal golden cross di 10-day MA (1,878) & 20-day MA (1,841), seharusnya masih mendukung analisa Elliot wave yang menunjukkan IHSG saat ini berada di minor wave impulse 5 dalam siklus koreksi intermediate wave 4 - subwave B, untuk target 1,950 (50% FR)/2,027 (161.8 FE) selama masih ditutup harian di atas 1,720 (support line/neckline). Support di 1,840/1,829 (61.8 FR) seharusnya dapat bertahan.
Resistance: 1925.73/1908.69/1891.66/1881.75. PP 1871.84
Support : 1854.80/1837.77/1827.86/1817.95
Perkiraan Range hari Ini 1,840-1,910)
Aksi profit-taking di sejumlah saham komoditi pertambangan batubara, logam dan perkebunan dan perbankan, mendorong IHSG terkoreksi tajam kemarin. Di tengah minimnya isu positif dari dalam negeri dan meningkatnya ketegangan geopolitik regional dari isu tes nuklir Korea Utara di awal pekan ini, telah merontokkan indek saham regional Asia, memberikan imbas negatif kepada IHSG. Mencuatnya skandal finansial di Citi Pacific Securities Indonesia, meredam keinginan investor untuk melakukan perdagangan dan memilih melakukan aksi profit-taking saham di sejumlah unggulan. IHSG sempat menguat di sesi 1, meski akhirnya ditutup turun 33.385 poin (1.77%), ditutup di 1,857.58, dengan total nilai transaksi di BEI tercatat Rp 3.978 triliun. Investor asing membukukan net sell Rp 140 juta dari net buy Rp 78.07 miliar hari Senin (25/05).
Mayoritas indeks saham di Asia-Pacific melemah kemarin, mendorong indeks mengalami penurunan terbesar lebih dari sepekan, berkat spekulasi Korea Utara mungkin meningkatkan latihan militer, meningkatkan ketegangan geopolitik di regional dan harga minyak terkoreksi turun ke $ 60/barel.
IHSG Outlook
Potensi penurunan IHSG hari ini terbatas, kendati minimnya sentimen positif dari dalam negeri dan munculnya sejumlah sentimen negatif dari harga minyak terkoreksi turun menjelang OPEC Meeting 28 Mei (spekulasi OPEC akan pertahankan output minyak & penutupan harga dibawah 200-day MA di $ 61.45) memicu terkoreksinya saham komoditi lokal, laporan saham PT Bumi Resources yang memiliki nilai transaksi harian terbesar di BEI mengalami net outflow sebesar Rp 198 miliar dalam 1 bulan terakhir, mendukung penurunan sebuah koreksi teknikal minor dalam trend bullish jangka pendek. Spekulasi penurunan inflasi bulan Mei dan BI rate pekan depan, seharusnya masih dapat memberikan support kepada IHSG. Sementara faktor regional yang tengah terkoreksi berkat kondisi teknikal yang overbought, mahalnya valuasi dan meningkatnya ketegangan geopolitik dari latihan militer Korea Utara, masih membatasi potensi kenaikan dalam trend bullish IHSG jangka pendek pada hari ini.
Stock Picks:
* META
* UNSP
Global Outlook
Meningkatnya ketegangan geopolitik di regional Asia dari latihan militer Korea Utara dalam 2 hari terakhir, diikuti laporan dari indeks harga rumah AS Standard & Poors/Case Shiller AS yang anjlok 19.1% di Q1 (rekor penurunan dalam 21 tahun) menunjukkan belum pulihnya sektor perumahan AS dari krisis dan meningkatnya kekhawatiran terhadap rating kredit negara di Eropa, seharusnya masih membebani kinerja regional Asia hari ini karena investor global berpotensi melakukan risk aversion dari saham dan komoditi. Tetapi lebih baik dari perkiraan data Consumer Confidence AS bulan Mei (54.7 dari 40.8 di bulan April), seharusnya masih menopang trend bullish indeks regional Asia.
Technical Analysis:
Pola candle daily bearish engulfing dan formasi double top di daily chart yang terlihat negatif untuk IHSG, seharusnya dapat dicounter kondisi uptrend di indikator MACD & Stochastic, pola diagonal triangle, ADX terkoreksi turun mengindikasikan momentum penurunan lemah terlihat lemah. Signal golden cross di 10-day MA (1,878) & 20-day MA (1,841), seharusnya masih mendukung analisa Elliot wave yang menunjukkan IHSG saat ini berada di minor wave impulse 5 dalam siklus koreksi intermediate wave 4 - subwave B, untuk target 1,950 (50% FR)/2,027 (161.8 FE) selama masih ditutup harian di atas 1,720 (support line/neckline). Support di 1,840/1,829 (61.8 FR) seharusnya dapat bertahan.
Resistance: 1925.73/1908.69/1891.66/1881.75. PP 1871.84
Support : 1854.80/1837.77/1827.86/1817.95
Perkiraan Range hari Ini 1,840-1,910)
Regional Masih Uptrend
SSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
9370 9220 9375 9120 9375 9220 9475 8995 9085 9230 9465 9555 9700
Commentary
Secara teknikal, SSIM9 berada dalam pola uptrend channel, diikuti pola candle daily three white soldier, indikator teknikal stochastic daily crossing (K% & D%), MACD masih uptrend dan ADX yang melanjutkan koreksi penurunan seharusnya mendukung perkiraan potensi range trading dengan bias bullish, mendukung perkiraan penutupan indeks diatas 9251 (support line) terlihat lemah, dan berpotensi mengarah naik ke target 9565 (downtrend line)/9633 (61.8 FE). Sementara support berada di 9251/9100 (61.8 FE) yang seharusnya masih menopang kinerja uptrend indeks dalam beberapa hari mendatang. Perkiraan range hari ini: 9300-9550.
Rekomendasi : Buy break 9550 target 9630, stop 100p, Buy 9,385 target 9560 stop 100p, Sell 9630 target 9400. (+190p)
KSM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
178.30 175.8 179.8 174.8 180.2 177.9 181.2 153.4 159.2 168.8 184.2 190.0 199.6
Commentary
Secara teknikal, KSM9 masih berada dalam kondisi uptrend, meski indeks mengalami bearish engulfing, tetapi berhasil ditutup diatas uptrend line di 173.35 dalam pola ascending triangle. Indikator teknikal menunjukkan signal positif ditunjukkan oleh daily candle bullish hammer, stochastic daily menunjukkan crossing up, MACD kendati uptrend tapi terkoreksi turun mendukung perkiraan momentum penurunan terlihat lemah, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi kenaikan lebih lanjut. Resistance berada di 179.20 (10-day MA)/183.90 (61.8 FE))/186.20 (resistance line) Sementara trend dapat berbalik bearish jika indeks ditutup dibawah 173.35, untuk target 172.80/165.00 (former low). Perkiraan range hari ini: 172-179.00
Rekomendasi : Buy break 175.40 target 179.00 stop 100p, buy break 179.40 target 183.00 stop 60p. Buy 171.20 target 179.10. (-100p+200p).
HSIK9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
17080 16875 17188 16775 17344 16953 17444 16299 16525 16802 17305 17531 17808
Commentary
Secara teknikal, HSIK9 masih berada dalam uptrend channel, karena indeks berada dalam kondisi uptrend, didukung higher low dan pola candle inverted hammer, didukung indikator teknikal stochastic & MACD masih uptrend, ADX yang terkoreksi turun dalam 5 hari terakhir mendukung perkiraan kenaikan karena penurunan 5 hari terakhir terlihat lemah. Tetapi pola bullish continuation dapat dibatasi oleh adanya pola double top di 17555 dan downtrend line di 17684. support berada di 16779/16290. Perkiraan range hari ini : 16700-17,300.
Rekomendasi : Sell break 16810 target 16320 (or closing) stop 100 p. buy break 10730 target 17260, stop 60 poin. Buy break 17570 target 17990 stop 100p. Buy 16750 target 17250 stop 100p (+290p; buy break 16960 was done)
9370 9220 9375 9120 9375 9220 9475 8995 9085 9230 9465 9555 9700
Commentary
Secara teknikal, SSIM9 berada dalam pola uptrend channel, diikuti pola candle daily three white soldier, indikator teknikal stochastic daily crossing (K% & D%), MACD masih uptrend dan ADX yang melanjutkan koreksi penurunan seharusnya mendukung perkiraan potensi range trading dengan bias bullish, mendukung perkiraan penutupan indeks diatas 9251 (support line) terlihat lemah, dan berpotensi mengarah naik ke target 9565 (downtrend line)/9633 (61.8 FE). Sementara support berada di 9251/9100 (61.8 FE) yang seharusnya masih menopang kinerja uptrend indeks dalam beberapa hari mendatang. Perkiraan range hari ini: 9300-9550.
Rekomendasi : Buy break 9550 target 9630, stop 100p, Buy 9,385 target 9560 stop 100p, Sell 9630 target 9400. (+190p)
KSM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
178.30 175.8 179.8 174.8 180.2 177.9 181.2 153.4 159.2 168.8 184.2 190.0 199.6
Commentary
Secara teknikal, KSM9 masih berada dalam kondisi uptrend, meski indeks mengalami bearish engulfing, tetapi berhasil ditutup diatas uptrend line di 173.35 dalam pola ascending triangle. Indikator teknikal menunjukkan signal positif ditunjukkan oleh daily candle bullish hammer, stochastic daily menunjukkan crossing up, MACD kendati uptrend tapi terkoreksi turun mendukung perkiraan momentum penurunan terlihat lemah, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi kenaikan lebih lanjut. Resistance berada di 179.20 (10-day MA)/183.90 (61.8 FE))/186.20 (resistance line) Sementara trend dapat berbalik bearish jika indeks ditutup dibawah 173.35, untuk target 172.80/165.00 (former low). Perkiraan range hari ini: 172-179.00
Rekomendasi : Buy break 175.40 target 179.00 stop 100p, buy break 179.40 target 183.00 stop 60p. Buy 171.20 target 179.10. (-100p+200p).
HSIK9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
17080 16875 17188 16775 17344 16953 17444 16299 16525 16802 17305 17531 17808
Commentary
Secara teknikal, HSIK9 masih berada dalam uptrend channel, karena indeks berada dalam kondisi uptrend, didukung higher low dan pola candle inverted hammer, didukung indikator teknikal stochastic & MACD masih uptrend, ADX yang terkoreksi turun dalam 5 hari terakhir mendukung perkiraan kenaikan karena penurunan 5 hari terakhir terlihat lemah. Tetapi pola bullish continuation dapat dibatasi oleh adanya pola double top di 17555 dan downtrend line di 17684. support berada di 16779/16290. Perkiraan range hari ini : 16700-17,300.
Rekomendasi : Sell break 16810 target 16320 (or closing) stop 100 p. buy break 10730 target 17260, stop 60 poin. Buy break 17570 target 17990 stop 100p. Buy 16750 target 17250 stop 100p (+290p; buy break 16960 was done)
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Tue May 26 09 06:36 ET
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's break of 950.1 minor support with 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line indicates that an intraday top is already in place at 963.1, ahead of 967.6 resistance. Outlook is turned neutral for the moment and some pull back might be seen. Nevertheless, another rise is still in favor as long as 915.2 support holds. Break of 967.6 will bring retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone. However, note that a break of 915.2 will indicate that whole rebound from 865 has completed and risk retest of this low.
In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 1007.7 so far is consistent with the bullish case. That is, rise from 681 is resumption of long term up trend after triangle consolidation from 1033.9 completed at 681. Retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone should now be seen. Decisive break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. On the downside, while another fall cannot be ruled out for the moment, we'll hold on to the bullish case as long as 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) remains intact.
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's break of 950.1 minor support with 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line indicates that an intraday top is already in place at 963.1, ahead of 967.6 resistance. Outlook is turned neutral for the moment and some pull back might be seen. Nevertheless, another rise is still in favor as long as 915.2 support holds. Break of 967.6 will bring retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone. However, note that a break of 915.2 will indicate that whole rebound from 865 has completed and risk retest of this low.
In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 1007.7 so far is consistent with the bullish case. That is, rise from 681 is resumption of long term up trend after triangle consolidation from 1033.9 completed at 681. Retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone should now be seen. Decisive break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. On the downside, while another fall cannot be ruled out for the moment, we'll hold on to the bullish case as long as 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) remains intact.
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Tue May 26 09 06:35 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
With an intraday top in place at 62.27, crude oil's retreat from there might continues further but after all, downside is expected to be contained above 56.07 support and bring rally resumption. Above 62.26 will target 55 weeks EMA (now at 67.33). However, considering bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI, break of 56.07 will indicate that a short term top is formed and deeper decline could then be seen to test channel support at 49.29.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 33.2 is still in progress with crude oil staying well inside rising channel and above 55 days EMA. There is no sign of topping yet and such rally is still in favor to continue. Nevertheless, the main question remains on whether such rebound is resuming the long term up trend or is it merely correction to the fall from 147.27. In any case, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as crude oil stays above channel support and further rally to 55 weeks EMA at 67.33 and 55 months EMA at 68.85 is still in favor even in case of pull back. However, note that failure to sustain above the mentioned EMAs, followed by break of the channel support, will suggest that rise from 33.2 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for a retest of 33.2 low.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
With an intraday top in place at 62.27, crude oil's retreat from there might continues further but after all, downside is expected to be contained above 56.07 support and bring rally resumption. Above 62.26 will target 55 weeks EMA (now at 67.33). However, considering bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI, break of 56.07 will indicate that a short term top is formed and deeper decline could then be seen to test channel support at 49.29.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 33.2 is still in progress with crude oil staying well inside rising channel and above 55 days EMA. There is no sign of topping yet and such rally is still in favor to continue. Nevertheless, the main question remains on whether such rebound is resuming the long term up trend or is it merely correction to the fall from 147.27. In any case, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as crude oil stays above channel support and further rally to 55 weeks EMA at 67.33 and 55 months EMA at 68.85 is still in favor even in case of pull back. However, note that failure to sustain above the mentioned EMAs, followed by break of the channel support, will suggest that rise from 33.2 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for a retest of 33.2 low.
U.S. Dollar: Are We Seeing Evidence of a Turn?
Jim Martens, Elliott Wave International's Senior Currency Strategist, regularly posts thoughts on the business of forex trading for his subscribers. Below is Jim's latest Market Insight, posted on the morning of May 22:
You've heard me say a million times both in my forecasts and weekly videos that in proper Elliott wave analysis, wave structure of a market move trumps wave measurements every time. Proportions between waves are important, but it's only when both the wave structure is completed and a measurement is approached that a wave pattern is coming to an end.Let's consider the present situation with the U.S. Dollar index as an example. Looking at the big picture, the Index is approaching the point where the decline from March will consist of three waves, with two of them (the ones pointing down) being equal.
Both of those characteristics -- a three-wave move with first and last legs equal -- are traits of corrective Elliott wave patterns. That warns us to look for evidence of a bottom in the DX. The ideal piece of evidence would be an impulsive (5-wave) rally from a low, followed by a corrective (3-wave) setback. That would also give us a price level (the low) that, if crossed, would signal that the idea of a turn is incorrect -- something you could use for good money management.What's lacking so far today (May 22) is that impulsive rally. But the Index does show a likely five-wave decline sequence from 83.22, complete with a potential bullish divergence accompanying the ostensible fifth wave.
Let's break it down market-by-market. The euro represents a stout 57% of the Dollar Index, and it has satisfied our upside expectations by pushing the EUR/USD above $1.3736. The USD/CHF reached its measured objective ($1.0939) earlier this week. Sterling has been strong. So, does the market show evidence that a bottom may be near? We are seeing signs of that, but as of this moment, all of the dollar's competitors are still pushing against their highs, so we are left riding the dominant trend (i.e., dollar weakness) until there is actual evidence to the contrary.
Moving beyond charts, my subscribers know that I always start my morning intraday comments by reviewing the big picture. I also keep an ear tuned to the financial news. I'm not so much interested in what they think about the markets as I am in the topics being discussed. Lately, it's been the dollar. There is a growing concern that with the dollar at its lows for the year, it may become more difficult for the U.S. to issue bonds to fund our enormous deficit. Add to that all the talk of replacing the dollar as the world's reserve currency -- and there is plenty to keep these discussions going. But isn't it interesting that this coverage has been increasing as the U.S. dollar pairs are reaching their measured price targets? As these discussions increase even more, we'll be watching for evidence that "the dollar concern" has reached a peak. At that time we will want to be contrarians. But for now, it's wave structure, structure, structure.
You've heard me say a million times both in my forecasts and weekly videos that in proper Elliott wave analysis, wave structure of a market move trumps wave measurements every time. Proportions between waves are important, but it's only when both the wave structure is completed and a measurement is approached that a wave pattern is coming to an end.Let's consider the present situation with the U.S. Dollar index as an example. Looking at the big picture, the Index is approaching the point where the decline from March will consist of three waves, with two of them (the ones pointing down) being equal.
Both of those characteristics -- a three-wave move with first and last legs equal -- are traits of corrective Elliott wave patterns. That warns us to look for evidence of a bottom in the DX. The ideal piece of evidence would be an impulsive (5-wave) rally from a low, followed by a corrective (3-wave) setback. That would also give us a price level (the low) that, if crossed, would signal that the idea of a turn is incorrect -- something you could use for good money management.What's lacking so far today (May 22) is that impulsive rally. But the Index does show a likely five-wave decline sequence from 83.22, complete with a potential bullish divergence accompanying the ostensible fifth wave.
Let's break it down market-by-market. The euro represents a stout 57% of the Dollar Index, and it has satisfied our upside expectations by pushing the EUR/USD above $1.3736. The USD/CHF reached its measured objective ($1.0939) earlier this week. Sterling has been strong. So, does the market show evidence that a bottom may be near? We are seeing signs of that, but as of this moment, all of the dollar's competitors are still pushing against their highs, so we are left riding the dominant trend (i.e., dollar weakness) until there is actual evidence to the contrary.
Moving beyond charts, my subscribers know that I always start my morning intraday comments by reviewing the big picture. I also keep an ear tuned to the financial news. I'm not so much interested in what they think about the markets as I am in the topics being discussed. Lately, it's been the dollar. There is a growing concern that with the dollar at its lows for the year, it may become more difficult for the U.S. to issue bonds to fund our enormous deficit. Add to that all the talk of replacing the dollar as the world's reserve currency -- and there is plenty to keep these discussions going. But isn't it interesting that this coverage has been increasing as the U.S. dollar pairs are reaching their measured price targets? As these discussions increase even more, we'll be watching for evidence that "the dollar concern" has reached a peak. At that time we will want to be contrarians. But for now, it's wave structure, structure, structure.
