By Carol Harmer on April 3, 2009
S&P 500 June Contract
S&P again behaved perfectly, holding lower support at 807 and trading to 842. Buyers were happy and sellers didn’t really have to do much except defend 842.
Now this morning there is scope for pullbacks with 825.52 your first short term retrace target. Buyers will be cautious at these levels, not knowing whether it will hold or not. Sellers will be looking for this to come lower and a break through to 818/816 is viable. Short covering and renewed buying interest at these lower levels should halt any initial attempt. It is only below 816 that buyers will be scratching their heads looking to reverse longs for 809/807. 842.35 as stated is the break out point for new buyers at higher levels. A break above here sees 847 fairly quickly. Above 847 sees renewed buying pressure with 852/853 the immediate objective. Short covering may cap initial advance. Buyers would only re-instate above 854 for 859.40.
Yesterday’s Price Action
High : 842, Low : 807.5 , Close : 835.50
Support 831, 825, 821, 818, 809, 807.95, 806/804, 798
Resistance 838.6/840.20, 842.35, 847, 852/853.5, 859.40, 869***, 873/875.5, 883/86*
Today’s Pivot Points
862.8, 849.1, 828.3, 814.6, 793.8,
SHORT TERM HOURLY FIB RETRACEMENT LEVELS
825.52, 816.77, 808.95, 801.12, 792.37
LONGER TERM DAILY FIB LEVELS
734.10, 770.69, 803.40, 836.10, 872.27
LIGHT CRUDE OIL May Contract
No change. Rallies continued yesterday, breaking through 51.80 for 52.87 before coming slightly lower. However this is not the end of the buyers story and the higher end of the comfort zone is at 54.20/66 and this is where potential sellers should be waiting with profit taking buyers. You should see the market back off these higher levels, but support will be defended at 49.40 and buyers will re-enter the market at these lower levels. Only below 49.00 would buyers wobble slightly.
So 54.20/66 remains your short term objective. A break above here would trigger buyers leaping into action with the longer term objective of 64.50 firmly in their sights.
Yesterday’s Price Action
High : 52.87, Low : 48.45, Close : 52.64,
Support 51.80, 51.20, 50.25, 49.87, 49.40, 48.30, 48.03/47.94, 47.65
Resistance 52.45, 53.65, 54.00/20, 54.66/70*, 55.40, 56.93, 57.25*, 57.89
Today’s Pivot Points
55.74, 54.19, 51.32, 49.77, 46.90
SHORT TERM HOURLY FIB RETRACEMENT LEVELS
51.47, 50.73, 50.07, 49.40, 48.66
LONGER TERM DAILY FIB LEVELS
49.40, 46.61, 44.11, 41.61, 38.82
Friday, April 3, 2009
Global Investment News Briefs: US Mortgage Rate, GM, Copper, IBM, Oil
By Money Morning on April 3, 2009
February Factory Orders Turn Positive; Fixed Mortgages at Record Low; GM Seeks Gov’t Money For Hybrids; Chile: Copper Prices Heading North; IBM Lowers Bid for Sun; Oil Surges 9% on Dollar Weakness
* U.S. factory orders rose in February, reversing six months of consecutive declines, the Commerce Department said. New factory orders rose 1.8% in February after dropping a revised 3.5% in January, Reuters reported.
* The 30-year fixed-mortgage rate dropped to 4.78%, a 30-year low, as the U.S. Federal Reserve increases its purchases of mortgage-backed bonds, Bloomberg reported. “Lower rates will help increase demand for homes. We need to see stronger demand for homes to help end the housing correction,” Celia Chen, senior director at Moody’s Economy.com told Bloomberg.
* Seeking funding to develop three new hybrid vehicles, General Motors Corp. (GM) asked the U.S. Treasury for a low-interest $2.6 billion loan, Reuters reported. If received, the loans would help the company develops two spinoffs from its all-electric Chevrolet Volt.
* Copper’s December price of $1.25 a pound is “in the past,” said Chile’s Mining Minister Santiago Gonzalez. December’s price was a four-year low, a result of tapering demand from China. Now, “China is buying large amounts of copper,” Gonzalez said to Bloomberg. “That’s part of copper’s recovery.”
* International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) cut its offer for Sun Microsystems Inc. (JAVA: 8.21 0.00 0.00%) to $9 from $10 per share, The Wall Street Journal reported. Sun has agreed to accept a lower price in return for stronger commitments from IBM that it will complete the deal even if it faces intense regulatory scrutiny, according to The Journal.
* Oil prices surged nearly 9% yesterday (Thursday), as light, sweet crude for May delivery rose $4.25 to settle at $52.64 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Natural gas for May delivery added 8.7 cents to settle at $3.782 per 1,000 cubic feet.
February Factory Orders Turn Positive; Fixed Mortgages at Record Low; GM Seeks Gov’t Money For Hybrids; Chile: Copper Prices Heading North; IBM Lowers Bid for Sun; Oil Surges 9% on Dollar Weakness
* U.S. factory orders rose in February, reversing six months of consecutive declines, the Commerce Department said. New factory orders rose 1.8% in February after dropping a revised 3.5% in January, Reuters reported.
* The 30-year fixed-mortgage rate dropped to 4.78%, a 30-year low, as the U.S. Federal Reserve increases its purchases of mortgage-backed bonds, Bloomberg reported. “Lower rates will help increase demand for homes. We need to see stronger demand for homes to help end the housing correction,” Celia Chen, senior director at Moody’s Economy.com told Bloomberg.
* Seeking funding to develop three new hybrid vehicles, General Motors Corp. (GM) asked the U.S. Treasury for a low-interest $2.6 billion loan, Reuters reported. If received, the loans would help the company develops two spinoffs from its all-electric Chevrolet Volt.
* Copper’s December price of $1.25 a pound is “in the past,” said Chile’s Mining Minister Santiago Gonzalez. December’s price was a four-year low, a result of tapering demand from China. Now, “China is buying large amounts of copper,” Gonzalez said to Bloomberg. “That’s part of copper’s recovery.”
* International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) cut its offer for Sun Microsystems Inc. (JAVA: 8.21 0.00 0.00%) to $9 from $10 per share, The Wall Street Journal reported. Sun has agreed to accept a lower price in return for stronger commitments from IBM that it will complete the deal even if it faces intense regulatory scrutiny, according to The Journal.
* Oil prices surged nearly 9% yesterday (Thursday), as light, sweet crude for May delivery rose $4.25 to settle at $52.64 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Natural gas for May delivery added 8.7 cents to settle at $3.782 per 1,000 cubic feet.
The Dow: Elliott Wave Similarities Between 1938 And 2008
By Corey Rosenbloom on April 2, 2009
Earlier, I took a look at “Dow Jones Similarities Between Dow Jones 1937/1938 and Today” and then followed up with “The Resolution of the 1937 Bear Market,” both of which were high-traffic posts. Let’s take a special look now at the Elliott Wave structure as more price bars have developed since that report and the structure is still as eerily similar now as it was then.
Dow Jones (^DJI: 7978.08 +216.48 +2.79%) 1937 -1938 with 5-Wave Structure:
One could have interpreted the final wave structure such that an “ABC” Wave 4 actually completed at the beginning of 1938 (meaning, replace “A” with a circled “4″) and then one might have an even more similar structure that’s playing out in today’s market - in that many analysts (myself included) were (maybe still are) expecting a final test of the March lows to mark a Five-Wave fractal pattern.
We see that in 1938, those expecting a final push to ‘double bottom’ or test the lows were disappointed, as price managed to retrace to the falling 20 EMA (off of a positive momentum divergence) and then form only half a test of the lows at 100 before marking the ‘bottom.’ We know from the “resolution” post that this was not the actual bottom of the bear market (it occurred in 1942) but this structure preceded a 62% price rally off the lows at circled Wave 5.
Let’s see how Today’s structure resembles that of yesteryear. I gave you a few more weeks to examine on the 1938 chart. If I froze the chart exactly similar to today, I would have done so at the Doji at the 120 level which came up into the falling 20 week EMA in April 1938 (how ironic).
Dow Jones 2007 - 2009 with (possible) 5-Wave Structure:
Earlier, I took a look at “Dow Jones Similarities Between Dow Jones 1937/1938 and Today” and then followed up with “The Resolution of the 1937 Bear Market,” both of which were high-traffic posts. Let’s take a special look now at the Elliott Wave structure as more price bars have developed since that report and the structure is still as eerily similar now as it was then.
Dow Jones (^DJI: 7978.08 +216.48 +2.79%) 1937 -1938 with 5-Wave Structure:
One could have interpreted the final wave structure such that an “ABC” Wave 4 actually completed at the beginning of 1938 (meaning, replace “A” with a circled “4″) and then one might have an even more similar structure that’s playing out in today’s market - in that many analysts (myself included) were (maybe still are) expecting a final test of the March lows to mark a Five-Wave fractal pattern.
We see that in 1938, those expecting a final push to ‘double bottom’ or test the lows were disappointed, as price managed to retrace to the falling 20 EMA (off of a positive momentum divergence) and then form only half a test of the lows at 100 before marking the ‘bottom.’ We know from the “resolution” post that this was not the actual bottom of the bear market (it occurred in 1942) but this structure preceded a 62% price rally off the lows at circled Wave 5.
Let’s see how Today’s structure resembles that of yesteryear. I gave you a few more weeks to examine on the 1938 chart. If I froze the chart exactly similar to today, I would have done so at the Doji at the 120 level which came up into the falling 20 week EMA in April 1938 (how ironic).
Dow Jones 2007 - 2009 with (possible) 5-Wave Structure:
IMF Gold Sales Will Have No Impact On Gold Market
By Brian Kelly on April 3, 2009
As part of the G20 Communiqué the leaders called on the IMF to sell gold to support developing countries. While spot gold was considerably weaker on this news, an examination of the statement illustrates the market’s fears are unfounded. From the communiqué:
We have committed, consistent with the new income model, that additional
resources from agreed sales of IMF gold will be used, together with surplus
income, to provide $6 billion additional concessional and flexible finance
for the poorest countries over the next 2 to 3 years. We call on the IMF to
come forward with concrete proposals at the Spring Meetings;
The two keys to this statement are: (our emphasis)
1. “…additional resources from agreed sales of IMF gold…” There will not be additional gold sales, the IMF will direct proceeds from previously agreed upon sales to developing countries.
2. “…to provide $6 billion…over the next 2 to 3 years…” These sales will likely be conducted through the London Bullion Market and will have little, if any, impact on the market.
As this table shows, $6 billion dollars in gold sales will have virtually no impact on the gold market. If needed, the IMF could sell all $6 billion in one day and still only be 28% of the average daily volume. However, the G20 calls on the IMF to make these sales over the next 2 to 3 years; these sales are a drop in the bucket for the gold market. Furthermore, a disorderly sale of gold by the IMF is unlikely due to its principles on how it treats the gold holdings.
IMF’s Governing Principles on Gold
* As an undervalued asset held by the IMF, gold provides fundamental strength to its balance sheet. Any mobilization of IMF gold should avoid weakening its overall financial position.
* The IMF should continue to hold a relatively large amount of gold among its assets, not only for prudential reasons, but also to meet unforeseen contingencies.
* The IMF has a systemic responsibility to avoid causing disruptions to the functioning of the gold market.
* Profits from any gold sales should be used whenever feasible to create an investment fund, of which only the income should be used.
As part of the G20 Communiqué the leaders called on the IMF to sell gold to support developing countries. While spot gold was considerably weaker on this news, an examination of the statement illustrates the market’s fears are unfounded. From the communiqué:
We have committed, consistent with the new income model, that additional
resources from agreed sales of IMF gold will be used, together with surplus
income, to provide $6 billion additional concessional and flexible finance
for the poorest countries over the next 2 to 3 years. We call on the IMF to
come forward with concrete proposals at the Spring Meetings;
The two keys to this statement are: (our emphasis)
1. “…additional resources from agreed sales of IMF gold…” There will not be additional gold sales, the IMF will direct proceeds from previously agreed upon sales to developing countries.
2. “…to provide $6 billion…over the next 2 to 3 years…” These sales will likely be conducted through the London Bullion Market and will have little, if any, impact on the market.
As this table shows, $6 billion dollars in gold sales will have virtually no impact on the gold market. If needed, the IMF could sell all $6 billion in one day and still only be 28% of the average daily volume. However, the G20 calls on the IMF to make these sales over the next 2 to 3 years; these sales are a drop in the bucket for the gold market. Furthermore, a disorderly sale of gold by the IMF is unlikely due to its principles on how it treats the gold holdings.
IMF’s Governing Principles on Gold
* As an undervalued asset held by the IMF, gold provides fundamental strength to its balance sheet. Any mobilization of IMF gold should avoid weakening its overall financial position.
* The IMF should continue to hold a relatively large amount of gold among its assets, not only for prudential reasons, but also to meet unforeseen contingencies.
* The IMF has a systemic responsibility to avoid causing disruptions to the functioning of the gold market.
* Profits from any gold sales should be used whenever feasible to create an investment fund, of which only the income should be used.
Daily Forex/DJIA/Gold Technical Commentary
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Easy Forex
Euro 1.3485
Initial support at 1.3113 (Mar 30 low) followed by 1.3098 (50% retrace 1.2457 to 1.3739). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3592 (Mar 27 high) at followed by 1.3678 (Mar 24 high)
Yen 99.80
Initial support is located at 98.23 (Apr 1 low) followed by 97.23 (Mar 31 low). Initial resistance is now at 100.55 (Nov 4 high) followed by 102.41 (Oct 20 high).
Pound 1.4770
Initial support at 1.4241 (Mar 31 low) followed by 1.4112 (Mar 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.4778 (Mar 24 high) followed by 1.4915 (Feb 10 high).
Australian Dollar 0.7230
Initial support at 0.6857 (Apr 1 low) followed by the 0.6771 (Mar 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7268 (Jan 7 high) followed by 0.7355 (Oct 7 high).
Gold 903
Initial support at 895 (Apr 2 low) followed by 883 (Mar 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 945 (Mar 26 high) followed by 966 (Mar 20 high).
Currency Sup 2 Sup 1 Spot Res 1 Res 2
EUR/USD 1.3098 1.3113 1.3485 1.3592 1.3678
USD/JPY 97.23 98.23 99.80 100.55 102.41
GBP/USD 1.4112 1.4241 1.4770 1.4478 1.4915
AUD/USD 0.6771 0.6857 0.7230 0.7268 0.7355
XAU/USD 884.00 895.00 903.00 945.00 966.00
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 7897.30(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 7852.50, where correction also can be. Then follows 7828.16. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 7796.30. Continuation will bring 7768.13 and 7743.56.
Today's resistance: - 8111.26 and 8136.70(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8150.60, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8187.37, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8203.20. Continuation would bring 8222.36 and 8274.32.
FXtechtrade
Mataf.net
European Session
EUR/USD - Euro Dollar
1,3412. EUR USD is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement. EUR USD moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility decreases. Bollinger bands are tightened. ForexTrend 1H (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. The price should find a resistance below 1,3500 (88 pips). The consolidation should continue.
Resistances 1,3500 - 1,3580
Supports 1,3350 - 1,3120
GBP/USD - British Pound Dollar
1,4689. GBP USD is in an uptrend supported by 1H exponential moving averages. GBP USD is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement. The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are flat. ForexTrend 1H, 4H (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. 4H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bullish pressure on GBP USD. The price should continue to move in 1,4640 / 1,4770 range. If the resistance breaks then the target will be 1,4900 (211 pips).
Resistances 1,4770 - 1,4900
Supports 1,4640 - 1,4425
USD/CHF - Dollar Swiss Franc
1,1361. USD CHF is in a consolidation after the last bearish movement. The volatility decreases. Bollinger bands are tightened. Oscillators are neutral. The price should continue to move in 1,1320 / 1,1495 range.
Resistances 1,1380 - 1,1495
Supports 1,1320 - 1,1170
USD/JPY - Dollar Yen
99,63. USD JPY is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement. The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are flat. ForexTrend 1H, 4H (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. 4H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bullish pressure on USD JPY. The price should find a resistance below 100,00 (37 pips). The consolidation should continue.
Resistances 100,00 - 100,50
Supports 99,00 - 98,40
by AceTrader Team
AceTrader 1-wk TRIAL
INTRA-DAY EUR/USD OUTLOOK - +1.3490+
As euro has risen after brief pullback, suggesting recent upmove remains in progress n gain twds 1.3496/00 is envisaged, however, a breach there is needed to retain bullishness for headway twds 1.35 25/30 later.
Buy with stop as indicated, break risks retracement to 1.3380/85...
Rate: +1.3490+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: +Long at 1.3455+
Objective: 1.3490
Stop-Loss:
Resistanc 1.3496/1.3550/1.3538
Support: 1.3377/1.3323/1.3251
INTRA-DAY EUR/JPY OUTLOOK - +133.30+
Despite intra-day retreat to 132.44, current strg rebound suggests pullback fm 133.55 has ended there n consolidation with upside bias is seen but break of said res is needed to signal upmove has resumed to 133.90/93.
Buy again with stop as indicated, only below said sup wud risk stronger retrace. to 132.10/20...
Rate: +133.30+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: +Long at 132.80+
Objective: 133.30
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 133.55/133.93/134.50
Support: 132.44/131.90/131.50
INTRA-DAY EUR/USD OUTLOOK - +1.3325+
Euro's rebound after finding renewed buying at 1.3251 suggests nr term rise fm y'day's 1.3166 low has resumed n gain twds 1.3330 is seen, however, as broad outlook remains consolidative, upside wud be ltd to 1.3343.
Turn long on dips with stop as indicated, only below said sup wud signal top is made, 1.3224...
Rate: +1.3325+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: +Long at 1.3285+
Objective: 1.3325
Stop-Loss:
Resistance:1.3343/1.3383/1.3410
Support: 1.3251/1.3224/1.3166
***************************************************
Euro 1.3485
Initial support at 1.3113 (Mar 30 low) followed by 1.3098 (50% retrace 1.2457 to 1.3739). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3592 (Mar 27 high) at followed by 1.3678 (Mar 24 high)
Yen 99.80
Initial support is located at 98.23 (Apr 1 low) followed by 97.23 (Mar 31 low). Initial resistance is now at 100.55 (Nov 4 high) followed by 102.41 (Oct 20 high).
Pound 1.4770
Initial support at 1.4241 (Mar 31 low) followed by 1.4112 (Mar 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.4778 (Mar 24 high) followed by 1.4915 (Feb 10 high).
Australian Dollar 0.7230
Initial support at 0.6857 (Apr 1 low) followed by the 0.6771 (Mar 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7268 (Jan 7 high) followed by 0.7355 (Oct 7 high).
Gold 903
Initial support at 895 (Apr 2 low) followed by 883 (Mar 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 945 (Mar 26 high) followed by 966 (Mar 20 high).
Currency Sup 2 Sup 1 Spot Res 1 Res 2
EUR/USD 1.3098 1.3113 1.3485 1.3592 1.3678
USD/JPY 97.23 98.23 99.80 100.55 102.41
GBP/USD 1.4112 1.4241 1.4770 1.4478 1.4915
AUD/USD 0.6771 0.6857 0.7230 0.7268 0.7355
XAU/USD 884.00 895.00 903.00 945.00 966.00
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 7897.30(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 7852.50, where correction also can be. Then follows 7828.16. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 7796.30. Continuation will bring 7768.13 and 7743.56.
Today's resistance: - 8111.26 and 8136.70(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8150.60, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8187.37, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8203.20. Continuation would bring 8222.36 and 8274.32.
FXtechtrade
Mataf.net
European Session
EUR/USD - Euro Dollar
1,3412. EUR USD is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement. EUR USD moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility decreases. Bollinger bands are tightened. ForexTrend 1H (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. The price should find a resistance below 1,3500 (88 pips). The consolidation should continue.
Resistances 1,3500 - 1,3580
Supports 1,3350 - 1,3120
GBP/USD - British Pound Dollar
1,4689. GBP USD is in an uptrend supported by 1H exponential moving averages. GBP USD is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement. The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are flat. ForexTrend 1H, 4H (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. 4H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bullish pressure on GBP USD. The price should continue to move in 1,4640 / 1,4770 range. If the resistance breaks then the target will be 1,4900 (211 pips).
Resistances 1,4770 - 1,4900
Supports 1,4640 - 1,4425
USD/CHF - Dollar Swiss Franc
1,1361. USD CHF is in a consolidation after the last bearish movement. The volatility decreases. Bollinger bands are tightened. Oscillators are neutral. The price should continue to move in 1,1320 / 1,1495 range.
Resistances 1,1380 - 1,1495
Supports 1,1320 - 1,1170
USD/JPY - Dollar Yen
99,63. USD JPY is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement. The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are flat. ForexTrend 1H, 4H (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. 4H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bullish pressure on USD JPY. The price should find a resistance below 100,00 (37 pips). The consolidation should continue.
Resistances 100,00 - 100,50
Supports 99,00 - 98,40
by AceTrader Team
AceTrader 1-wk TRIAL
INTRA-DAY EUR/USD OUTLOOK - +1.3490+
As euro has risen after brief pullback, suggesting recent upmove remains in progress n gain twds 1.3496/00 is envisaged, however, a breach there is needed to retain bullishness for headway twds 1.35 25/30 later.
Buy with stop as indicated, break risks retracement to 1.3380/85...
Rate: +1.3490+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: +Long at 1.3455+
Objective: 1.3490
Stop-Loss:
Resistanc 1.3496/1.3550/1.3538
Support: 1.3377/1.3323/1.3251
INTRA-DAY EUR/JPY OUTLOOK - +133.30+
Despite intra-day retreat to 132.44, current strg rebound suggests pullback fm 133.55 has ended there n consolidation with upside bias is seen but break of said res is needed to signal upmove has resumed to 133.90/93.
Buy again with stop as indicated, only below said sup wud risk stronger retrace. to 132.10/20...
Rate: +133.30+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: +Long at 132.80+
Objective: 133.30
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 133.55/133.93/134.50
Support: 132.44/131.90/131.50
INTRA-DAY EUR/USD OUTLOOK - +1.3325+
Euro's rebound after finding renewed buying at 1.3251 suggests nr term rise fm y'day's 1.3166 low has resumed n gain twds 1.3330 is seen, however, as broad outlook remains consolidative, upside wud be ltd to 1.3343.
Turn long on dips with stop as indicated, only below said sup wud signal top is made, 1.3224...
Rate: +1.3325+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: +Long at 1.3285+
Objective: 1.3325
Stop-Loss:
Resistance:1.3343/1.3383/1.3410
Support: 1.3251/1.3224/1.3166
***************************************************
Thursday, April 2, 2009
Technical Analysis : Emerging Stocks Are ‘in Vogue,’ CLSA Says.
(Bloomberg) -- Emerging markets are “back in vogue” and set for six months of gains, according to the “breadth” indicator used by CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets to predict rebounds.The MSCI Emerging Markets Country Breadth gauge turned bullish as 20 percent of the countries in the benchmark index climbed above their 40-week weighted moving average after a decline to less than 10 percent, CLSA analysts Laurence Balanco and Tiara Fontanilla wrote in a report yesterday. They advise investors to “overweight” China, Taiwan and South Africa.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rallied 14 percent in March, the best monthly advance since December 1993 and almost twice the 7.2 percent added by the MSCI World Index. Funds investing in developing markets drew $2.3 billion in the week ended March 25, the highest inflows this year, according to data compiled by Cambridge, Massachusetts-based EPFR Global. CLSA’s MSCI Emerging Markets Country Breath indicator has shown buy signals five times since 1997. On the previous five occasions, the benchmark index yielded an average return of 4.6 percent over the next month and 16 percent over the next six months, CLSA said.
The emerging markets gauge is also on an “uptrend” relative to the MSCI World Index, the brokerage said. A recent “break” above its 40-week exponential moving average paves the way for “a test of the 2008 highs,” about 10 percent higher than current levels, the report said. Using the same analysis, Chile, China, Israel, Malaysia, Morocco, Peru, the Philippines, South Africa and Taiwan are attractive relative to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, the CLSA analysts said. Investors use moving averages of closing prices over different periods to predict levels of resistance and support for prices.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rallied 14 percent in March, the best monthly advance since December 1993 and almost twice the 7.2 percent added by the MSCI World Index. Funds investing in developing markets drew $2.3 billion in the week ended March 25, the highest inflows this year, according to data compiled by Cambridge, Massachusetts-based EPFR Global. CLSA’s MSCI Emerging Markets Country Breath indicator has shown buy signals five times since 1997. On the previous five occasions, the benchmark index yielded an average return of 4.6 percent over the next month and 16 percent over the next six months, CLSA said.
The emerging markets gauge is also on an “uptrend” relative to the MSCI World Index, the brokerage said. A recent “break” above its 40-week exponential moving average paves the way for “a test of the 2008 highs,” about 10 percent higher than current levels, the report said. Using the same analysis, Chile, China, Israel, Malaysia, Morocco, Peru, the Philippines, South Africa and Taiwan are attractive relative to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, the CLSA analysts said. Investors use moving averages of closing prices over different periods to predict levels of resistance and support for prices.
Laporan Ekonomi Pasar New York Update
* Consumer Loan Delinquencies Rise to Record High, American Bankers Association Says
* ECB Lowers Rate Less Than Forecast to 1.25% as Europe's Recession Deepens
* Stocks, Commodities Rally as G-20 Weighs Stimulus; Yen, Treasuries Decline
* U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rose More Than Estimated to 669,000 Last Week
* China's Manufacturing Output Expands First Time in Six Months on Stimulus
* SNB to Use “All Means” to Prevent Deflation, Says Hildebrand - 1 hr ago
* ECB’s Orphanides Says Crisis’ Repercussion on Economy “Intensifying” - 2 hrs ago
* Strong dollar needed to help end crisis: Zoellick
Source: Bloomberg/Reuters
* ECB Lowers Rate Less Than Forecast to 1.25% as Europe's Recession Deepens
* Stocks, Commodities Rally as G-20 Weighs Stimulus; Yen, Treasuries Decline
* U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rose More Than Estimated to 669,000 Last Week
* China's Manufacturing Output Expands First Time in Six Months on Stimulus
* SNB to Use “All Means” to Prevent Deflation, Says Hildebrand - 1 hr ago
* ECB’s Orphanides Says Crisis’ Repercussion on Economy “Intensifying” - 2 hrs ago
* Strong dollar needed to help end crisis: Zoellick
Source: Bloomberg/Reuters
US Inventory Weighing On Oil Prices
By Zacks Investment Research on April 2, 2009
In its weekly status report Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported another build in inventories of crude oil and refined products, which is expected to weigh on oil prices in the coming days.The agency reported that total commercial crude oil stocks increased by 2.8 million barrels from the preceding week, significantly above expectations. This is the fourth consecutive week of inventory build, seriously denting growing optimism about the commodity’s supply-demand picture. Current stocks are 12.6% above the comparable period last year. The supply cover continues inching up, with current stock levels sufficient for 25.4 days of supply - significantly above the year-earlier level of 22.2 days.
For refined products, the agency reported inventory builds, while the expectations were for drawdowns. Gasoline stocks increased by 2.2 million barrels, while distillate stocks increased by 200,000 barrels. On a positive note, stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for NYMEX contracts, dropped by 800,000 barrels. Stocks at this critical delivery point peaked in February and have dropped in six of the last seven weeks.Crude oil prices have pulled back from their mid-$50’s high for the year in the face of continued concerns about the health of the global economy. While we expect the commodity’s near-term price movement to continue mirroring the evolving macro-economic picture, we do not expect it to revisit its late ‘08 lows. We believe that oil prices have troughed already and are currently in a consolidation phase.
The continued anemic demand and the strong build in excess production capacity over the last few months are expected to prevent any sustained price rallies. We continue to advocate some defensive positioning in the group through Exxon (XOM: 69.23 0.00 0.00%) and Chevron (CVX: 68.30 0.00 0.00%), but are increasingly getting more comfortable with building positions in the deepwater drillers, such as Transocean (RIG: 59.32 0.00 0.00%), Diamond Offshore (DO: 63.59 0.00 0.00%) and Pride (PDE: 18.20 0.00 0.00%).
In its weekly status report Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported another build in inventories of crude oil and refined products, which is expected to weigh on oil prices in the coming days.The agency reported that total commercial crude oil stocks increased by 2.8 million barrels from the preceding week, significantly above expectations. This is the fourth consecutive week of inventory build, seriously denting growing optimism about the commodity’s supply-demand picture. Current stocks are 12.6% above the comparable period last year. The supply cover continues inching up, with current stock levels sufficient for 25.4 days of supply - significantly above the year-earlier level of 22.2 days.
For refined products, the agency reported inventory builds, while the expectations were for drawdowns. Gasoline stocks increased by 2.2 million barrels, while distillate stocks increased by 200,000 barrels. On a positive note, stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for NYMEX contracts, dropped by 800,000 barrels. Stocks at this critical delivery point peaked in February and have dropped in six of the last seven weeks.Crude oil prices have pulled back from their mid-$50’s high for the year in the face of continued concerns about the health of the global economy. While we expect the commodity’s near-term price movement to continue mirroring the evolving macro-economic picture, we do not expect it to revisit its late ‘08 lows. We believe that oil prices have troughed already and are currently in a consolidation phase.
The continued anemic demand and the strong build in excess production capacity over the last few months are expected to prevent any sustained price rallies. We continue to advocate some defensive positioning in the group through Exxon (XOM: 69.23 0.00 0.00%) and Chevron (CVX: 68.30 0.00 0.00%), but are increasingly getting more comfortable with building positions in the deepwater drillers, such as Transocean (RIG: 59.32 0.00 0.00%), Diamond Offshore (DO: 63.59 0.00 0.00%) and Pride (PDE: 18.20 0.00 0.00%).
Asian CPO Ends At 6-Mo High On Palm Olein Sales, Lower Output
Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange rose as much as 5.1% to a fresh six-month high, crossing MYR2,150 a metric ton, as one global trading company locked in supplies for palm olein and trade participants estimated lower output for March. Palmoil.com
(Dow Jones)--The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday,supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil. CPO prices are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 705.00 +30.00 Unquoted - -
May/June 690.00 +30.00
Jul/Aug/Sep 670.00 +30.00 Unquoted - -
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
April 2,280 +80.00 Unquoted - -
(Dow Jones)--The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday,supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil. CPO prices are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 705.00 +30.00 Unquoted - -
May/June 690.00 +30.00
Jul/Aug/Sep 670.00 +30.00 Unquoted - -
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
April 2,280 +80.00 Unquoted - -
Daily Technical Resistance-Support Nikkei/Hang Seng/IHSG
Nikkei Futures Juni
R4 9113.33/9053.33, R3 8993.33/8933.33, R2 8873.33/8835.00, R1 8796.67/8775.00
PP 8753.33/8715.00
S1 8676.67/8655.00, S2 8633.33/8573.33, S3 8513.33/8453.33, S4 8393.33
Hang Seng
R4 16583.00/16206.00, R3 15829.00/15452.00, R2 15075.00/14945.50, R1 14816.00/14568.50
PP 14321.00/14191.50
S1 14062.00/13814.50, S2 13567.00/13190.00, S3 12813.00/12436.00, S4 2059.00
IHSG
R4 1601.75/1582.66, S3 1563.56/1544.47, R2 1525.37/1518.96, R1 1512.55/1499.87
PP 1487.18/1480.77
S1 1474.36/1461.68, S2 1448.99/1429.90, S3 1410.80/1391.71, S4 1372.61
R4 9113.33/9053.33, R3 8993.33/8933.33, R2 8873.33/8835.00, R1 8796.67/8775.00
PP 8753.33/8715.00
S1 8676.67/8655.00, S2 8633.33/8573.33, S3 8513.33/8453.33, S4 8393.33
Hang Seng
R4 16583.00/16206.00, R3 15829.00/15452.00, R2 15075.00/14945.50, R1 14816.00/14568.50
PP 14321.00/14191.50
S1 14062.00/13814.50, S2 13567.00/13190.00, S3 12813.00/12436.00, S4 2059.00
IHSG
R4 1601.75/1582.66, S3 1563.56/1544.47, R2 1525.37/1518.96, R1 1512.55/1499.87
PP 1487.18/1480.77
S1 1474.36/1461.68, S2 1448.99/1429.90, S3 1410.80/1391.71, S4 1372.61
Melejitnya Pasar Saham & Obligasi Kuatkan Rupiah
Rupiah menguat untuk pertama kali dalam pekan ini, rebound dari pelemahan di awal sesi, di tengah isu bank sentral membeli rupiah. Obligasi lokal mengalami penguatan. RUpiah bersamaan dengan kenaikan saham dan mata uang regional Asia-Pasifik, juga didukung oleh spekulasi resesi global mungkin mencapai bottom. Laporan ekonomi AS kemarin menunjukkan penjualan rumah second di AS dan indeks manufakturing AS mencapai perkiraan ekonom. Indeks saham SMCI Asia-Pacific menguat 4.5 persen, kenaikan terbesdar sejak Desember, sementara IHSG ditutup menguat 2.6 persen (+37.99 poin) di 1,499.73 level tertinggi . Rupiah menguat 0.7 persen menjadi 11,490 per dolar pada pukul 16.31 di Jakarta, menurut data Bloomberg. Rupiah telah melemah 5.1 persen di tahun ini, sempat melemah 1.4 persen di 11,735.
Kontrak non-deliverable forward 1 bulan menunjukkan trader memperkirakan rupiah akan melemah 0.6 persen di 11,560. Obligasi pemerintah 5-tahun menguat untuk hari ketiga berkat spekulasi Bank Indonesia akan mengambil keuntungan untuk meredakan inflasi dengan menurunkan suku bunga pada pertemuan RDG besok. Survei Bloomberg menunjukkan peluang BI turunkan 25 bsp menjadi 7.50 persen setelah inflasi meningkat 7.9 persen dari tahun sebelumnya di Maret, kenaikan terkecil sejak 13 bulan. Yield untuk obligasi 11.25 persen yang jatuh tempo 2014 melemah 19 basis poin, atau 0.19 persen, menjadi 11.16 persen. harga menguat 0.7385, atau 7,385 rupiah per nilai 1 juta rupiah, menjadi 100,3064. Secara teknikal USD-IDR masih berkonsolidasi dalam range 11,300-11,700 hingga pekan depan, trend jangka pendek bearish tetapi trend med-term & long term masih bullish selama bertahan di atas 11,100 untuk target diatas 12,300 bulan April-Mei. Jika ditutup mingguan di bawah level tersebut rupiah berpeluang ke 10,600/10,000.
Kontrak non-deliverable forward 1 bulan menunjukkan trader memperkirakan rupiah akan melemah 0.6 persen di 11,560. Obligasi pemerintah 5-tahun menguat untuk hari ketiga berkat spekulasi Bank Indonesia akan mengambil keuntungan untuk meredakan inflasi dengan menurunkan suku bunga pada pertemuan RDG besok. Survei Bloomberg menunjukkan peluang BI turunkan 25 bsp menjadi 7.50 persen setelah inflasi meningkat 7.9 persen dari tahun sebelumnya di Maret, kenaikan terkecil sejak 13 bulan. Yield untuk obligasi 11.25 persen yang jatuh tempo 2014 melemah 19 basis poin, atau 0.19 persen, menjadi 11.16 persen. harga menguat 0.7385, atau 7,385 rupiah per nilai 1 juta rupiah, menjadi 100,3064. Secara teknikal USD-IDR masih berkonsolidasi dalam range 11,300-11,700 hingga pekan depan, trend jangka pendek bearish tetapi trend med-term & long term masih bullish selama bertahan di atas 11,100 untuk target diatas 12,300 bulan April-Mei. Jika ditutup mingguan di bawah level tersebut rupiah berpeluang ke 10,600/10,000.
Rencana Stimulus G20 Lemahkan Dolar AS & Yen
Yen melemah terhadap euro dan dolar karena saham global melejit berkat optimisme keterpurukan ekonomi global mungkin akan berakhir, mendorong investor meningkatkan pembelian aset yang memiliki yield yang lebih tinggi. Euro menguat terhadap dolar AS berkat spekulasi President ECB Trichet akan memberikan signal untuk menahan diri menurunkan suku bunga di bulan mendatang setelah menurunkan suku bunga pada hari ini. Pound Inggris menguat ke level tertinggi dalam 1 bulan terhadap euro dan dolar setelah laporan harga rumah Inggris secara mengejutkan meningkat 0.9% di bulan Maret. Dolar Australia menguat setelah surplus perdagangan secara tidak terduga membengkak.
Yen melemah ke 131.77 per euro di London, dari 130.52 di New York kemarin. Yen melemah ke 99.24 per dollar dari 98.53. Menurut analis Commerzbank yen mungkin mencapai pada 105 di akhir bulan Juni. Euro menguat ke $1.3293, dari $1.3249 sebelum pengumuman ECB dan konperensi pers ECB Trichet malam ini. Pound menguat untuk hari ke-3 terhadap dollar, menjadi $1.4558 dari $1.4468, setelah Nationwide Building Society mengatalan harga rata-rata rumah di Inggris melonjak 0.9 percent dari February, kenaikan pertama sejak Oktober 2007. Pound berada di 90.89 pence per euro,terkuat sejak 9 March, dan berada di 90.94 pence. Aussie menguat ke 0.7070 per dolar dari 0.6993 berkat optimisme melambatnya ekonomi global akan meningkatkan permintaan untuk mata uang komoditi dan laporan media Australia bahwa Kevin Ruud merencanakan babak ketiga stimulus ekonomi dalam anggaran bulan depan. Surplus perdagangan Australia meningkat menjadi $ 2.11 milyar ($1.5 milyar) dari revisi A$ 926 juta di bulan Januari. Indeks US Dolar merosot ke85.146 dari 85.503 kemarin.
MSCI World Index dari 23 negara maju menguat 2 persen, mendorong kenaikan terbaik sejak 9 Maret menjadi 15 persen. Nikkei Average 225 menguat 4.4 persen, setelah indeks Standard & Poors menguat 1.7 persen kemarin dan indeks DJI futures menguat 156 poin di sesi Eropa. Pertemuan G20 di London hari ini untuk mencari solusi guna mengakhiri krisis ekonomi karena beberapa laporan ekonomi menunjukkan laju penurunan ekonomi mulai mereda. Mereka setuju untuk meningkatkan bantuan kepada IMF dan mencegah proteksionisme. Jepang investor merupakan net buyer obligasi asing untuk pekan ketiga berturut-turut, membeli 663.1 milyar yen ($6.1 milyar) selama pekan 28 Maret.
Secara Teknikal: eur-usd membentuk pola bullish berkat signal di stochastic crossing up & RSI trend up dengan neckline di $ 1.3340, terutama jika bertahan diatas 1.3280 untuk closing 4 jam-an untuk target 1.3560 untuk mempertahankan trend kenaikan. Meski secara keseluruhan trend masih bearish untuk med-term selama berada di bawah $ 1.4710 untuk penutupan harian target $ 1.2320/1.1960 di Q2 2009. Menurut analisa Elliot wave, euro telah menyelesaikan sub wave C dalam wave IV retracement untuk mengarah ke target wave V dalam wave A di kisaran 1.39-1.40.
gbp-usd menunjukkan pola bullish channel untuk target trendline di 1.4770 selama bertahan penutupan 4-jam diatas 1.4420 (Fibo 38.2%), didukung oleh stochastic yang mendekati overbought dan RSI trending up, meski secara keseluruhan trend masih bearish untuk medium term selama gagal menembus 1.4970 untuk target 1.3530/1.3440 dan bahkan 1.2960/1.28 di Q2 2009. Menurut analisa Elliot Wave gbp-usd saat ini berada di koreksi wave 4 dalam wave C, setelah gagal menembus wave A high dan 76.4 Fibo di wave B, untuk terkoreksi penurunan di pekan mendatang.
usd-jpy menunjukkan signal bullish setelah menembus pola bullish untuk neckline di 98.85 dan saat ini berada di ascending channel untuk target 102.60, selama tidak ditutup dibawah 98.85 pada hari ini, meski secara kesluruhan trend masih bearish selama ditutup bulanan dibawah 102.60 untuk target 84.95/82.60.
Yen melemah ke 131.77 per euro di London, dari 130.52 di New York kemarin. Yen melemah ke 99.24 per dollar dari 98.53. Menurut analis Commerzbank yen mungkin mencapai pada 105 di akhir bulan Juni. Euro menguat ke $1.3293, dari $1.3249 sebelum pengumuman ECB dan konperensi pers ECB Trichet malam ini. Pound menguat untuk hari ke-3 terhadap dollar, menjadi $1.4558 dari $1.4468, setelah Nationwide Building Society mengatalan harga rata-rata rumah di Inggris melonjak 0.9 percent dari February, kenaikan pertama sejak Oktober 2007. Pound berada di 90.89 pence per euro,terkuat sejak 9 March, dan berada di 90.94 pence. Aussie menguat ke 0.7070 per dolar dari 0.6993 berkat optimisme melambatnya ekonomi global akan meningkatkan permintaan untuk mata uang komoditi dan laporan media Australia bahwa Kevin Ruud merencanakan babak ketiga stimulus ekonomi dalam anggaran bulan depan. Surplus perdagangan Australia meningkat menjadi $ 2.11 milyar ($1.5 milyar) dari revisi A$ 926 juta di bulan Januari. Indeks US Dolar merosot ke85.146 dari 85.503 kemarin.
MSCI World Index dari 23 negara maju menguat 2 persen, mendorong kenaikan terbaik sejak 9 Maret menjadi 15 persen. Nikkei Average 225 menguat 4.4 persen, setelah indeks Standard & Poors menguat 1.7 persen kemarin dan indeks DJI futures menguat 156 poin di sesi Eropa. Pertemuan G20 di London hari ini untuk mencari solusi guna mengakhiri krisis ekonomi karena beberapa laporan ekonomi menunjukkan laju penurunan ekonomi mulai mereda. Mereka setuju untuk meningkatkan bantuan kepada IMF dan mencegah proteksionisme. Jepang investor merupakan net buyer obligasi asing untuk pekan ketiga berturut-turut, membeli 663.1 milyar yen ($6.1 milyar) selama pekan 28 Maret.
Secara Teknikal: eur-usd membentuk pola bullish berkat signal di stochastic crossing up & RSI trend up dengan neckline di $ 1.3340, terutama jika bertahan diatas 1.3280 untuk closing 4 jam-an untuk target 1.3560 untuk mempertahankan trend kenaikan. Meski secara keseluruhan trend masih bearish untuk med-term selama berada di bawah $ 1.4710 untuk penutupan harian target $ 1.2320/1.1960 di Q2 2009. Menurut analisa Elliot wave, euro telah menyelesaikan sub wave C dalam wave IV retracement untuk mengarah ke target wave V dalam wave A di kisaran 1.39-1.40.
gbp-usd menunjukkan pola bullish channel untuk target trendline di 1.4770 selama bertahan penutupan 4-jam diatas 1.4420 (Fibo 38.2%), didukung oleh stochastic yang mendekati overbought dan RSI trending up, meski secara keseluruhan trend masih bearish untuk medium term selama gagal menembus 1.4970 untuk target 1.3530/1.3440 dan bahkan 1.2960/1.28 di Q2 2009. Menurut analisa Elliot Wave gbp-usd saat ini berada di koreksi wave 4 dalam wave C, setelah gagal menembus wave A high dan 76.4 Fibo di wave B, untuk terkoreksi penurunan di pekan mendatang.
usd-jpy menunjukkan signal bullish setelah menembus pola bullish untuk neckline di 98.85 dan saat ini berada di ascending channel untuk target 102.60, selama tidak ditutup dibawah 98.85 pada hari ini, meski secara kesluruhan trend masih bearish selama ditutup bulanan dibawah 102.60 untuk target 84.95/82.60.
RIset Saham Sekuritas Asing & Lokal
Download 1. BUMI
Download 2.ELTY
Download 3.Telekomunikasi CS
Download 4. Kim Eng (02/04)
Download 5. MU Q2 2009
Download 6. Investor Buletin Saham
Download 7. LSIP
Download 8. JP Morgan Strategy
Download 9. PTBA - ML
Download 10.Property - UBS
Download 2.ELTY
Download 3.Telekomunikasi CS
Download 4. Kim Eng (02/04)
Download 5. MU Q2 2009
Download 6. Investor Buletin Saham
Download 7. LSIP
Download 8. JP Morgan Strategy
Download 9. PTBA - ML
Download 10.Property - UBS
Daily Technical Analysis Forex/Gold/DJIA
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade |
Forex and Dow Jones Recommended Levels
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.3230, 1.3218 and 1.3186(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3158, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3132. Break of the latter would result in 1.3097. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3072. Continuation will give 1.3033, 1.3005 and 1.2983.
Today's resistance: - 1.3321, 1.3366 and 1.3354(main). Break would give 1.3411, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.3438. Break of the latter would result in 1.3466. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.3502. Continuation will give 1.3546 and 1.3585.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 98.04, 97.86, 97.59 and 97.20(main). Break would bring 96.77, where correction is possible. Then 96.40, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 96.19. If a strong impulse, we would see 96.04. Continuation would give 95.62.
Today's resistance: - 99.00 and 99.27(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 99.45, where also a correction may be. Then 99.72. If a strong impulse, we would see 99.93. Continuation will give 100.21 and 100.47.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 7648.12 and 7606.24(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 7593.73, where correction also can be. Then follows 7562.62. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 7548.70. Continuation will bring 7513.30 and 7492.50.
Today's resistance: - 7796.30, 7817.33 and 7832.77(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 7848.28, where a correction may happen. Then follows 7869.40, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 7897.70. Continuation would bring 7917.76.
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Easy Forex
Euro 1.3245
Initial support at 1.3113 (Mar 30 low) followed by 1.3098 (50% retrace 1.2457 to 1.3739). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3343 (Mar 31 high) at followed by 1.3592 (Mar 27 high)
Yen 98.45
Initial support is located at 97.23 (Mar 31 low) followed by 95.43 (Mar 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 99.47 (Apr 1 high) followed by 99.68 (Mar 5 high).
Pound 1.4450
Initial support at 1.4241 (Mar 31 low) followed by 1.4112 (Mar 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.4494 (Mar 27 high) followed by 1.4638 (Mar 26 high).
Australian Dollar 0.6980
Initial support at 0.6771 (Mar 30 low) followed by the 0.6724 (Mar 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7094 (Mar 24 high) followed by 0.7142 (Jan 8 high).
Gold 925
Initial support at 909 (Mar 30 low) followed by 883 (Mar 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 945 (Mar 26 high) followed by 966 (Mar 20 high)
Currency Sup 2 Sup 1 Spot Res 1 Res 2
EUR/USD 1.3113 1.3174 1.3245 1.3343 1.3592
USD/JPY 95.96 97.23 98.95 99.37 99.68
GBP/USD 1.4112 1.4241 1.4350 1.4361 1.4494
AUD/USD 0.6724 0.6771 0.6915 0.6966 0.7094
XAU/USD 884.00 909.00 918.00 945.00 966.00
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by TheLFB-Forex.com
Eur/Usd Into The Channel
The euro has declined from the highs achieved late last month in the 1.3700 area to find intermediate support in the 1.3250 handle. The pair is trapped in the upper side of the buy sell channel. Below that level, the pair has a level of support near 1.2500. The daily RSI has retraced to the neutral 50 line.
Forex and Dow Jones Recommended Levels
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.3230, 1.3218 and 1.3186(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3158, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3132. Break of the latter would result in 1.3097. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3072. Continuation will give 1.3033, 1.3005 and 1.2983.
Today's resistance: - 1.3321, 1.3366 and 1.3354(main). Break would give 1.3411, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.3438. Break of the latter would result in 1.3466. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.3502. Continuation will give 1.3546 and 1.3585.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 98.04, 97.86, 97.59 and 97.20(main). Break would bring 96.77, where correction is possible. Then 96.40, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 96.19. If a strong impulse, we would see 96.04. Continuation would give 95.62.
Today's resistance: - 99.00 and 99.27(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 99.45, where also a correction may be. Then 99.72. If a strong impulse, we would see 99.93. Continuation will give 100.21 and 100.47.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 7648.12 and 7606.24(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 7593.73, where correction also can be. Then follows 7562.62. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 7548.70. Continuation will bring 7513.30 and 7492.50.
Today's resistance: - 7796.30, 7817.33 and 7832.77(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 7848.28, where a correction may happen. Then follows 7869.40, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 7897.70. Continuation would bring 7917.76.
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Easy Forex
Euro 1.3245
Initial support at 1.3113 (Mar 30 low) followed by 1.3098 (50% retrace 1.2457 to 1.3739). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3343 (Mar 31 high) at followed by 1.3592 (Mar 27 high)
Yen 98.45
Initial support is located at 97.23 (Mar 31 low) followed by 95.43 (Mar 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 99.47 (Apr 1 high) followed by 99.68 (Mar 5 high).
Pound 1.4450
Initial support at 1.4241 (Mar 31 low) followed by 1.4112 (Mar 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.4494 (Mar 27 high) followed by 1.4638 (Mar 26 high).
Australian Dollar 0.6980
Initial support at 0.6771 (Mar 30 low) followed by the 0.6724 (Mar 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7094 (Mar 24 high) followed by 0.7142 (Jan 8 high).
Gold 925
Initial support at 909 (Mar 30 low) followed by 883 (Mar 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 945 (Mar 26 high) followed by 966 (Mar 20 high)
Currency Sup 2 Sup 1 Spot Res 1 Res 2
EUR/USD 1.3113 1.3174 1.3245 1.3343 1.3592
USD/JPY 95.96 97.23 98.95 99.37 99.68
GBP/USD 1.4112 1.4241 1.4350 1.4361 1.4494
AUD/USD 0.6724 0.6771 0.6915 0.6966 0.7094
XAU/USD 884.00 909.00 918.00 945.00 966.00
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by TheLFB-Forex.com
Eur/Usd Into The Channel
The euro has declined from the highs achieved late last month in the 1.3700 area to find intermediate support in the 1.3250 handle. The pair is trapped in the upper side of the buy sell channel. Below that level, the pair has a level of support near 1.2500. The daily RSI has retraced to the neutral 50 line.
Financial Markets & Gold Forecasts 2009 -Update
This is a follow up to the 2009 year forecast issued on Jan 16, 2009. In the first quarter of 2009, we reached the climax of US banking and financial collapse.
* Citigroup was brought down by souring mortgages and traded below a dollar. US government now has a controlling stake.
* Dow Jones traded below 7,000, not seen since 1998.
* The Fed having printed over $1.5 trillion to buy bad debts, promised to print $trillions more to buy mortgages and long term US treasuries to keep rates low
* Global central banks lowered and kept interest rates nearing zero percent
* Asian markets and commodities markets gathered momentum and broke away from US equities. Oil surged $15 from the low $35 to trade at $50.
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* Citigroup was brought down by souring mortgages and traded below a dollar. US government now has a controlling stake.
* Dow Jones traded below 7,000, not seen since 1998.
* The Fed having printed over $1.5 trillion to buy bad debts, promised to print $trillions more to buy mortgages and long term US treasuries to keep rates low
* Global central banks lowered and kept interest rates nearing zero percent
* Asian markets and commodities markets gathered momentum and broke away from US equities. Oil surged $15 from the low $35 to trade at $50.
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When Gold Ruled the Earth, Part I
"Gold's investment performance has dominated this decade. How come so few people have noticed...?"
NO FOOLING! It doesn't matter which currency you earn, spend or invest, gold bullion has been the best-performing asset class bar none this decade.
That fact bears repeating, so you'll have to forgive me:
Gold has dominated the last nine years for investors, smacking everything else in the nose and pulling their ears, too.
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NO FOOLING! It doesn't matter which currency you earn, spend or invest, gold bullion has been the best-performing asset class bar none this decade.
That fact bears repeating, so you'll have to forgive me:
Gold has dominated the last nine years for investors, smacking everything else in the nose and pulling their ears, too.
download article
The Soft Financial Panic of 2009 Has Just Begun
Boston's Clarendon Street sits on one of city's most iconic buildings. It's also the symbol of what could kick off what I call the “Soft Panic of 2009.” Locals know it simply as “The Hancock.” The 60-story frame wrapped in reflective blue glass makes it look like the tallest mirror in the world. I'm sure it was an impressive sight when it was built in the 70's. It still is.
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Spekulasi BI Rate Berpotensi Angkat IHSG
IHSG
Indeks diperkirakan melanjutkan kenaikan berkat positifnya data inflasi (0.22% m/m, 7.96%) yang mendorong perkiraan BI rate akan terpangkas sedikitnya 25bsp menjadi 7.50% pada pertemuan RDG hari Jumat. Positifnya laporan keuangan BUMI (laba +103%; $645 juta), INDY, ELSA (laba +34%), ADRO & perbankan (BMRI, BBRI, BBNI, BBCA-hari Selasa) dan kenaikan sejumlah indeks saham Asia ikut memberikan sentimen positif. Meski laju kenaikan dibatasi oleh pelemahan rupiah ke 11,650 dan penurunan harga komoditi. Investor masih berhati-hati jelang G20 Summit di London, ECB meeting (unemployment Euro 8.5%,picu prediksi cut 50bsp), Jobless claims, Non Farm Payroll & Unemployment (prediksi 648k; 8.5%) hari Jumat, dapat picu profit taking Jumat/Senin mendatang.
Penguatan DJI pada hari Rabu berkat kenaikan saham pembangun perumahan, perbankan) setelah data ekonomi AS (meski ADP Employer Maret 742k, tetapi ISM 36.3, Pending Home Sales 2.1%-84.1 lebih baik dari perkiraan), dapat memberikan insentif yang kuat kepada IHSG hari ini. Secara teknikal IHSG overbought, tetapi MÅCD positìf, MFI up, ADX trending up, membentuk pola candle three inside out dalam formasi ascending triangle (upper trendline 1,524) dalam koreksi wave IV bear rally. Extend bullish jika level 1472 yearly high ditembus target 1504 (fibo 50%)/1524. Oil $47.63, gold $927.50, DJ Coal 4.23% 159.11, CPO Myr 2,143, Nickel $10,100, Tin $10,450. Collect ASII target 15850/16k, BUMI target 900/920, TLKM target 7850, BBRI target 4700, BMRI target 2375, PTBA target 7500, JSMR/INDF target 1k. Risk: <5%. Lihat rekomendasi hari Rabu (01/04).
Disclaimer.
Indeks diperkirakan melanjutkan kenaikan berkat positifnya data inflasi (0.22% m/m, 7.96%) yang mendorong perkiraan BI rate akan terpangkas sedikitnya 25bsp menjadi 7.50% pada pertemuan RDG hari Jumat. Positifnya laporan keuangan BUMI (laba +103%; $645 juta), INDY, ELSA (laba +34%), ADRO & perbankan (BMRI, BBRI, BBNI, BBCA-hari Selasa) dan kenaikan sejumlah indeks saham Asia ikut memberikan sentimen positif. Meski laju kenaikan dibatasi oleh pelemahan rupiah ke 11,650 dan penurunan harga komoditi. Investor masih berhati-hati jelang G20 Summit di London, ECB meeting (unemployment Euro 8.5%,picu prediksi cut 50bsp), Jobless claims, Non Farm Payroll & Unemployment (prediksi 648k; 8.5%) hari Jumat, dapat picu profit taking Jumat/Senin mendatang.
Penguatan DJI pada hari Rabu berkat kenaikan saham pembangun perumahan, perbankan) setelah data ekonomi AS (meski ADP Employer Maret 742k, tetapi ISM 36.3, Pending Home Sales 2.1%-84.1 lebih baik dari perkiraan), dapat memberikan insentif yang kuat kepada IHSG hari ini. Secara teknikal IHSG overbought, tetapi MÅCD positìf, MFI up, ADX trending up, membentuk pola candle three inside out dalam formasi ascending triangle (upper trendline 1,524) dalam koreksi wave IV bear rally. Extend bullish jika level 1472 yearly high ditembus target 1504 (fibo 50%)/1524. Oil $47.63, gold $927.50, DJ Coal 4.23% 159.11, CPO Myr 2,143, Nickel $10,100, Tin $10,450. Collect ASII target 15850/16k, BUMI target 900/920, TLKM target 7850, BBRI target 4700, BMRI target 2375, PTBA target 7500, JSMR/INDF target 1k. Risk: <5%. Lihat rekomendasi hari Rabu (01/04).
Disclaimer.
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
IMF Predicts up to 1% Contraction in '09
The International Monetary Fund sees the world economy contracting by between 0.5 and 1 percent in 2009, Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said in an interview published on Wednesday. He said a recovery could come in the first two quarters of 2010.The IMF said last month in two reports prepared for a meeting of Group of 20 nations this week that the global economy will shrink as much as 1 percent this year -- its first contraction since World War Two.It forecast a gradual recovery in 2010.
Separately, Strauss-Kahn said it was possible the European Central Bank could resort to purchasing assets with newly created money to boost the money supply. With regards to Spain, Strauss-Kahn said although Spanish banks were not directly exposed to U.S toxic assets they had created their own.He said there could be problems with some Spanish banks needing government help although the system overall was healthy.Spain on Sunday launched its first bank rescue of the global financial crisis to prevent solvency problems at unlisted savings bank Caja Castilla la Mancha (CCM).Spanish banks' capital and liquidity levels are being worn down by limited access to money markets and soaring debt defaults during Spain's recession.
© 2009 CNBC.com
Separately, Strauss-Kahn said it was possible the European Central Bank could resort to purchasing assets with newly created money to boost the money supply. With regards to Spain, Strauss-Kahn said although Spanish banks were not directly exposed to U.S toxic assets they had created their own.He said there could be problems with some Spanish banks needing government help although the system overall was healthy.Spain on Sunday launched its first bank rescue of the global financial crisis to prevent solvency problems at unlisted savings bank Caja Castilla la Mancha (CCM).Spanish banks' capital and liquidity levels are being worn down by limited access to money markets and soaring debt defaults during Spain's recession.
© 2009 CNBC.com
Asia Crude Palm Oil Ends At 6-Mo High On Tight Supply, Soyoil
Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange ended sharply higher Wednesday, rising as much as 3.5% to a six-month high, on fresh support due to tight supplies of both palm oil and soyoil, said trade participants.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil. CPO prices are in ringgits a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgits a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 675.00 +05.00 Unquoted - -
May/June 660.00 +10.00
Jul/Aug/Sep 640.00 +20.00 Unquoted - -
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
April 2,200 +50.00 Unquoted - -
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
April 125 +03.00 Unquoted - -
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil. CPO prices are in ringgits a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgits a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 675.00 +05.00 Unquoted - -
May/June 660.00 +10.00
Jul/Aug/Sep 640.00 +20.00 Unquoted - -
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
April 2,200 +50.00 Unquoted - -
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
April 125 +03.00 Unquoted - -
Goldman Sachs Remains The Market Leader And A Leading Market Indicator
As Henry Paulson took office as the Treasury Secretary of the United States in mid 2006, succeeding John Snow, Goldman Sachs (GS: 106.02 0.00 0.00%) suddenly became a market leader. Henry Paulson, the former director and CEO of Goldman Sachs, along with the other major investment firms, had helped get the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission to drop the net capital requirement from all the major investment houses in 2004. The net capital rule was key in limiting the risk and exposure by these major firms by making them hold reserves. Retracting this rule is seen as one of the major contributors to the Wall Street debacle we are now currently experiencing. Goldman Sachs began its meteoric rise from one of the many financial firms to the one true elite player as Paulson took power. Goldman Sachs quickly gained traction as the market directional leader almost like a blessed being. They could do no wrong, profits soared and even in this major recession and financial crisis, they remain one of the few still standing, still profiting. The charts speak for themselves, many on Wall Street including the Chief Market Strategists at InTheMoneyStocks.com say, “as goes Goldman, so goes the market”.
This connection is one of the true symbiotic relationships in the market and can be seen on a daily basis. Should Goldman Sachs begin to break up, the market usually follows and if Goldman starts to collapse, the markets begin to tumble. Many of the pro traders now watch Goldman Sachs as a leading indicator for the market. To explain this symbiotic relationship further, take a look at the chart from February 5th, 2009. Compare the intra day 5 minute SPY chart and the intra day 5 minute GS chart. Note in the chart how Goldman Sachs and the market both gap lower on the day, however, almost immediately Goldman starts to rally higher and go positive. Goldman continues to rally while the markets sell. However, the selling in the markets quickly subsides as Goldman continues higher. The market begins to rally and continues the upward move for the rest of the day. Note the charts below showing Goldman Sachs leading and the market following.
Understanding that Goldman Sachs leads the market can increase profits. Goldman has some extremely key levels on its horizon and must be watched very carefully. The ultimate downside target should support trend lines not hold would be $80 then possibly a retest of the lower pink trend line from the November lows connecting to the January lows. However, if Goldman Sachs can show some strength here and stay above these key support lines, the target for the next major resistance point is the trend line from the high in November connected to the high in January. If that resistance point is broken, ultimately Goldman will see $120. Always watch Goldman Sachs as a leading indicator of the market. Should it begin to break up or down through key supports or resistance levels, the market is sure to follow. Remember, the charts tell the truth.
This connection is one of the true symbiotic relationships in the market and can be seen on a daily basis. Should Goldman Sachs begin to break up, the market usually follows and if Goldman starts to collapse, the markets begin to tumble. Many of the pro traders now watch Goldman Sachs as a leading indicator for the market. To explain this symbiotic relationship further, take a look at the chart from February 5th, 2009. Compare the intra day 5 minute SPY chart and the intra day 5 minute GS chart. Note in the chart how Goldman Sachs and the market both gap lower on the day, however, almost immediately Goldman starts to rally higher and go positive. Goldman continues to rally while the markets sell. However, the selling in the markets quickly subsides as Goldman continues higher. The market begins to rally and continues the upward move for the rest of the day. Note the charts below showing Goldman Sachs leading and the market following.
Understanding that Goldman Sachs leads the market can increase profits. Goldman has some extremely key levels on its horizon and must be watched very carefully. The ultimate downside target should support trend lines not hold would be $80 then possibly a retest of the lower pink trend line from the November lows connecting to the January lows. However, if Goldman Sachs can show some strength here and stay above these key support lines, the target for the next major resistance point is the trend line from the high in November connected to the high in January. If that resistance point is broken, ultimately Goldman will see $120. Always watch Goldman Sachs as a leading indicator of the market. Should it begin to break up or down through key supports or resistance levels, the market is sure to follow. Remember, the charts tell the truth.
Why Commodities And ETFs May Have Best Quarter Since Mid-2008
By Tom Lydon on April 1, 2009
As of midday, commodities and the sector’s related exchange traded funds (ETFs) are headed for their best quarter since the middle of last year. What gives? Last year marked a boom period for commodities, and many of them hit records - most notably, oil and gold. Around the middle of July, however, a deep correction began that never really fully righted itself. But on the last trading day of the first quarter, the Reuters-Jefferies CRB Index, which tracks prices across 19 mostly U.S.-traded commodities is down 6% for the quarter.
This is after losing 25% and 35% in the third and fourth quarters, respectively, last year, reports Reuters. Analysts have some reasons why there’s been a slowdown in the index’s decline:
* The global financial crisis sent investors to seek shelter in safe-haven assets and the dollar, which sent commodities down and made them more expensive; this process could be winding down
* Oil is being propped up by firmer stocks, as well as a modest rebound in the euro against the dollar
* Japan’s copper exports to China are likely to remain robust until May or Jone
Investors are still hyper-sensitive to any weak data, and the wave of news coming this week could spark a sharper drop in commodity prices. Other economies are still experiencing their own troubles, too: for example, in Japan, unemployment is at a three-year high and the country is in its worst recession since World War II.
* iShares GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust Fund (GSG: 25.18 0.00 0.00%): down 7% in the last three months; down 13.4% year-to-date.
As of midday, commodities and the sector’s related exchange traded funds (ETFs) are headed for their best quarter since the middle of last year. What gives? Last year marked a boom period for commodities, and many of them hit records - most notably, oil and gold. Around the middle of July, however, a deep correction began that never really fully righted itself. But on the last trading day of the first quarter, the Reuters-Jefferies CRB Index, which tracks prices across 19 mostly U.S.-traded commodities is down 6% for the quarter.
This is after losing 25% and 35% in the third and fourth quarters, respectively, last year, reports Reuters. Analysts have some reasons why there’s been a slowdown in the index’s decline:
* The global financial crisis sent investors to seek shelter in safe-haven assets and the dollar, which sent commodities down and made them more expensive; this process could be winding down
* Oil is being propped up by firmer stocks, as well as a modest rebound in the euro against the dollar
* Japan’s copper exports to China are likely to remain robust until May or Jone
Investors are still hyper-sensitive to any weak data, and the wave of news coming this week could spark a sharper drop in commodity prices. Other economies are still experiencing their own troubles, too: for example, in Japan, unemployment is at a three-year high and the country is in its worst recession since World War II.
* iShares GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust Fund (GSG: 25.18 0.00 0.00%): down 7% in the last three months; down 13.4% year-to-date.
Daily Technical Resistance-Support Nikkei/Hang Seng/IHSG
N225 Futures Juni
R4 8588.33, R3 8498.33, R2 8435.00, R1 8390.00
PP 8363.33
S1 8300.00, S2 8228.33, S3 8183.33, S4 8093.33
Hang Seng Futures April
R4 14423.50, R3 14066.50, R2 13778.50, R1 13600.00
PP 13531.00
S1 13243.00, S2 12995.50, S3 12638.50, S4 12460.00
IHSG
R4 1529.16, R3 1498.86, R2 1478.22, R1 1463.07
PP 1453.41
S1 1432.77, S2 1407.96, S3 1377.66, S4 1362.51
R4 8588.33, R3 8498.33, R2 8435.00, R1 8390.00
PP 8363.33
S1 8300.00, S2 8228.33, S3 8183.33, S4 8093.33
Hang Seng Futures April
R4 14423.50, R3 14066.50, R2 13778.50, R1 13600.00
PP 13531.00
S1 13243.00, S2 12995.50, S3 12638.50, S4 12460.00
IHSG
R4 1529.16, R3 1498.86, R2 1478.22, R1 1463.07
PP 1453.41
S1 1432.77, S2 1407.96, S3 1377.66, S4 1362.51
Daily US Index Analysis
Index Recommended Levels
by Nikolajs Serikovs
Dow Jones :
Today’s support: - 7425.00, 7412.80 and 7391.22(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 7368.72, where correction also can be. Then follows 7336.36. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 7311.40. Continuation will bring 7292.10 and 7268.30.
Today’s resistance: - 7618.70(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 7647.19, where a correction may happen. Then follows 7672.50, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we’d see 7696.22. Continuation would bring 7716.09 and 7738.24.
S&P500
Support: - 770.63(main). Break will give 759.36, where correction could be. Then follows 743.90, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 731.26. Continuation will lead to 722.80.
Resistance: - 808.58, 835.30 and 843.75(main), where a correction may happen. Break would result in 855.12, where correction may be. Then 877.40. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 900.00. Continuation will lead to 909.56.
NASDAQ
Support : - 1479.35(main). Break will give 1467.11, where correction could be. Then follows 1451.24, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse. We would see 1434.37. Continuation will lead to 1418.46.
Resistance : - 1531.36(main), where a correction may happen. Break would result in 1544.07, where correction may be. Then 1553.90. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1569.46. Continuation will lead to 1587.65.
by Nikolajs Serikovs
Dow Jones :
Today’s support: - 7425.00, 7412.80 and 7391.22(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 7368.72, where correction also can be. Then follows 7336.36. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 7311.40. Continuation will bring 7292.10 and 7268.30.
Today’s resistance: - 7618.70(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 7647.19, where a correction may happen. Then follows 7672.50, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we’d see 7696.22. Continuation would bring 7716.09 and 7738.24.
S&P500
Support: - 770.63(main). Break will give 759.36, where correction could be. Then follows 743.90, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 731.26. Continuation will lead to 722.80.
Resistance: - 808.58, 835.30 and 843.75(main), where a correction may happen. Break would result in 855.12, where correction may be. Then 877.40. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 900.00. Continuation will lead to 909.56.
NASDAQ
Support : - 1479.35(main). Break will give 1467.11, where correction could be. Then follows 1451.24, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse. We would see 1434.37. Continuation will lead to 1418.46.
Resistance : - 1531.36(main), where a correction may happen. Break would result in 1544.07, where correction may be. Then 1553.90. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1569.46. Continuation will lead to 1587.65.
Lemahnya Ekonomi Jepang & Eropa, Meningkatkan Permintaan Dolar
Euro melemah ke level terendah 2 pekan terhadap dolar berkat spekulasi laporan pengangguran Euro akan mengalami kenaikan terbesar dalam 2 tahun. Yen menguat terhadap 15 dari 16 mata uang utama yang ditrack oleh Bloomberg News setelah Presiden Obama bersiap untuk membiarkan perusahaan otomotif AS bangkrut, mendorong permintaan untuk mata uang Jepang sebagai pelarian investasi. Yen sebelumnya sempat melemah setelah survei BOJ menunjukkan sentimen bisnis anjlok ke rekor terendah, memberikan signal resesi di Jepang kian memburuk.The euro declined to $1.3192 as of 7:28 a.m. in London from $1.3250 yesterday in New York. It touched $1.3114 on March 30, the lowest level since March 18. The 16-nation currency dropped to 130.31 yen from 131.13 yen. The yen menguat ke 98.78 per dollar dari 98.96 kemarin setelah sebelumnya sempat melemah ke 99.47, level terlemah sejak 5 Maret. Dolar menguat ke 1.1433 Swiss francs dari 1.1394, dan menguat $1.4302 per pound dari $1.4323.
Euro melemah terhadap 10 dari 16 mata uang yang dikumpulkan Bloomberg sebelum laporan tenaga kerja yang akan menunjukkan tingkat pengangguran Euro akan melonjak ke 8.3% di bulan Februari, tertinggi sejak Juni 2006, dari 8.2 persen di Januari. Euro juga melemah berkat spekulasi ECB akan menurunkan suku bunga pada pertemuan besok, sebesar 50 bsp menjadi 1.00%. EUro akan melemah ke $ 1.27 dan Y 127 pada 30 Juni, menurut survei analis Bloomberg. Indeks dolar melanjutkan kenaikan di kuartal kelima berkat spekulasi resesi di AS mereda, memulihkan keyakinan investor untuk aset nasional. Dolar mungkin menguat karena National Association of Realtors akan memperlihatkan kontrak untuk membeli rumah second stabil di bulan Februari setelah merosot 7.7 persen di Januari. ISM akan berada di 36 di bulan Maret,naik dari 35.8 di Februari. Indeks dolar menguat 0.5 persen menjadi 85.87.
Yen sebelumnya melemah mengikuti survei Tankan Bank of Japan diantara major manufacturer anjlok ke minus 58 di Maret dari minus 24 di Desember, Ekonom memprediksikan minus 55. Dolar juga sepertinya menguat terhadap mata uang Asia karena 19 pemimpin kepala negara maju dan berkambang dan Uni Eropa bertemu di London untuk mencari pendapatan global untuk mengakhiri krisis ekonomi. Lemahnya respon kepada bencana finansial global dari G20 mungkin akan memberikan support kepada dolar.
Euro melemah terhadap 10 dari 16 mata uang yang dikumpulkan Bloomberg sebelum laporan tenaga kerja yang akan menunjukkan tingkat pengangguran Euro akan melonjak ke 8.3% di bulan Februari, tertinggi sejak Juni 2006, dari 8.2 persen di Januari. Euro juga melemah berkat spekulasi ECB akan menurunkan suku bunga pada pertemuan besok, sebesar 50 bsp menjadi 1.00%. EUro akan melemah ke $ 1.27 dan Y 127 pada 30 Juni, menurut survei analis Bloomberg. Indeks dolar melanjutkan kenaikan di kuartal kelima berkat spekulasi resesi di AS mereda, memulihkan keyakinan investor untuk aset nasional. Dolar mungkin menguat karena National Association of Realtors akan memperlihatkan kontrak untuk membeli rumah second stabil di bulan Februari setelah merosot 7.7 persen di Januari. ISM akan berada di 36 di bulan Maret,naik dari 35.8 di Februari. Indeks dolar menguat 0.5 persen menjadi 85.87.
Yen sebelumnya melemah mengikuti survei Tankan Bank of Japan diantara major manufacturer anjlok ke minus 58 di Maret dari minus 24 di Desember, Ekonom memprediksikan minus 55. Dolar juga sepertinya menguat terhadap mata uang Asia karena 19 pemimpin kepala negara maju dan berkambang dan Uni Eropa bertemu di London untuk mencari pendapatan global untuk mengakhiri krisis ekonomi. Lemahnya respon kepada bencana finansial global dari G20 mungkin akan memberikan support kepada dolar.
Rupiah Tertekan Berkat Memburuknya Kondisi Ekonomi Global
Rupiah Indonesia terpuruk, melanjutkan pelemahan mingguan, berkat kekhawatiran mengenai memburuknya resesi global yang meredam permintaan investor untuk aset emerging-market. Laporan COnsumer COnfidence AS dan bisnis sentimen Tankan Jepang berada di rekor terendah, sementara manufakturing CHina terkontraksi untuk bulan ke-8 berturut-turut. World Bank, OECD dan ADB semuanya memangkas prediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi kemarin. Rupiah mengurangi tekanan berkat spekulasi Bank Indonesia melakukan intervensi. Rupiah sempat melemah 1.5 persen di 11,730 per dolar, sebelum melemah 0.6 persen di 11,620 pada pukul 11,45 di Jakarta. Rupiah telah melemah 5.7 persen di Q1 2009, menguat 3.7 persen di bulan Maret, setelah melemah 14 persen di 2008.BI dilaporkan melakukan intervensi pada pekan ini untuk menjaga upiah dari pelemahan ke 12,000.
World Bank kemarin memangkas prediksi pertumbuhan untuk negara maju di tahun ini lebih dari setengah menjadi 2.1 persen, OECD di Paris mengatakan 30 negara industri akan terkontraksi 4.3 persen di tahun ini. ADB memangkas perkiraan pertumbuhan untuk Asia tidak termasuk Jepang menjadi 3.4 persen dari 5.8 persen. Indonesia mungkin menurunkan prediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi menjadi 3.5 persen dari 4.5 persen, menurut Menteri Keuangan Sri Mulyani di London, yang merupakan level terlambat dalam 8 tahun.Non deliveeerable forward rupiah 1 bulan, melemah 0.9 persen di 11,833.Pasar masih menunggu laporan ekspor yang diperkirakan melemah 37 persen di Februari dari 36 persen di Januari. Inflasi sepertinya akan berada di 8 persen dari 8.6 persen di Februari. Data dirilis jam 2.Macquarie melihat rupiah akan berada di 10,000 di akhir tahun. Sementara OCBC melhat rupiah akan melemah 6 persen di akhir Juni menjadi 12,500 per dolar di kuartal ini karena investor asing menghindari aset yang beresiko dan mata uang yang diperlukan untuk memenuhi pembayaran impor dan hutang. Rupiah mungkin melemah ke 13,000 di kuartal ketiga, sebelum berada di 12,500 di akhir tahun ini.
Update: Inflasi Maret 2009 sebesar 0,22%. Sumbangan terbesar inflasi masih dari emas dan perhiasan. Inflasi tahun kalender dari Januari-Maret 2009 tercatat sebesar 0,36%, inflasi year on year atau Maret 2009 terhadap Maret 2008 mencapai 7,92%.
Sumber: Bloomberg, Detik.com
World Bank kemarin memangkas prediksi pertumbuhan untuk negara maju di tahun ini lebih dari setengah menjadi 2.1 persen, OECD di Paris mengatakan 30 negara industri akan terkontraksi 4.3 persen di tahun ini. ADB memangkas perkiraan pertumbuhan untuk Asia tidak termasuk Jepang menjadi 3.4 persen dari 5.8 persen. Indonesia mungkin menurunkan prediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi menjadi 3.5 persen dari 4.5 persen, menurut Menteri Keuangan Sri Mulyani di London, yang merupakan level terlambat dalam 8 tahun.Non deliveeerable forward rupiah 1 bulan, melemah 0.9 persen di 11,833.Pasar masih menunggu laporan ekspor yang diperkirakan melemah 37 persen di Februari dari 36 persen di Januari. Inflasi sepertinya akan berada di 8 persen dari 8.6 persen di Februari. Data dirilis jam 2.Macquarie melihat rupiah akan berada di 10,000 di akhir tahun. Sementara OCBC melhat rupiah akan melemah 6 persen di akhir Juni menjadi 12,500 per dolar di kuartal ini karena investor asing menghindari aset yang beresiko dan mata uang yang diperlukan untuk memenuhi pembayaran impor dan hutang. Rupiah mungkin melemah ke 13,000 di kuartal ketiga, sebelum berada di 12,500 di akhir tahun ini.
Update: Inflasi Maret 2009 sebesar 0,22%. Sumbangan terbesar inflasi masih dari emas dan perhiasan. Inflasi tahun kalender dari Januari-Maret 2009 tercatat sebesar 0,36%, inflasi year on year atau Maret 2009 terhadap Maret 2008 mencapai 7,92%.
Sumber: Bloomberg, Detik.com
Daily FX Technical Commentary
Daily Forex Technicals Written by Easy Forex
Euro 1.3245
Initial support at 1.3174 (Mar 31 low) followed by 1.3113 (Mar 30 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3343 (Mar 31 high) at followed by 1.3592 (Mar 27 high)
Yen 98.95
Initial support is located at 97.23 (Mar 31 low) followed by 95.43 (Mar 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 99.37 (Mar 31 high) followed by 99.68 (Mar 5 high).
Pound 1.4350
Initial support at 1.4241 (Mar 31 low) followed by 1.4112 (Mar 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.4361 (Mar 31 high) followed by 1.4494 (Mar 27 high).
Australian Dollar 0.6915
Initial support at 0.6771 (Mar 30 low) followed by the 0.6724 (Mar 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.6966 (Mar 31 high) followed by 0.7094 (Mar 24 high).
Gold 918
Initial support at 909 (Mar 30 low) followed by 883 (Mar 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 945 (Mar 26 high) followed by 966 (Mar 20 high).
Currency Sup 2 Sup 1 Spot Res 1 Res 2
EUR/USD 1.3113 1.3174 1.3245 1.3343 1.3592
USD/JPY 95.96 97.23 98.95 99.37 99.68
GBP/USD 1.4112 1.4241 1.4350 1.4361 1.4494
AUD/USD 0.6724 0.6771 0.6915 0.6966 0.7094
XAU/USD 884.00 909.00 918.00 945.00 966.00
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
Euro: We accumulated shorts as suggested yesterday till 1.3340 (21 day 4hrly) and it fell 160 pips post that. Euro stays below the trendline broken on last friday. The view remains bearish till its holding below 1.3330 (38.2% retracement of the recent fall). Maintain sell on retracements around 3240-90 levels for a target of 1.3030. Near term fundamental stays weak. (Eur/Usd:1.3215). BEARISH.
Pound: We had accumulated shorts till 1.43-4350 post which pound fell 90 pips to 1.4255 levels .Strategy for pound still remains bearish. Accumulate shorts from 1.43 - 1.4350 for a target of 1.40 (Gbp/Usd: 1.4315). BEARISH.
Yen: The Usd/Jpy pair had been stuck in the triangular pattern between 95 to 98.70 . The triangle got broken yesterday due to excessive buying in the USD/JPY pair . It has currently taken resistance at the 50% retracement of the medium term fall exactly.We would target 101.64 (61.8% retracement of the major fall) provided 98.00 levels hold good. The strategy remains bullish since its holding above the trendline. Add positions only on 2 closing above 99.00 levels targetting 101.50 . SLIGHTLY NEUTRAL TO BULLISH. (Usd/Jpy: 98.80).
Australian Dollar: Aussie touched the trend line resistance and 21 day day EMA as expected yesterday. Strategy remains to go short on the pair targetting .6500 . Keep STOPS closing above .7050 . BEARISH (Aud/Usd: 0.6890).
Gold: Gold recently had broken the bullish trendline near $930 . Cluster resistance is around 923-25 which should be taken as opportunities to short again. Please note that the daily stochastic of Gold is giving a STRONG buy provided 926 breaks on a sustained basis. Little tricky currently. Stay Short but reverse incase 930 breaks and closes above . NEUTRAL (Gold: $917.60).
Dollar index : Dollar index has broken the down trendline and staying above 86.00 . It inched slightly higher yesterday.Other indicators stays buillish . BULLISH.
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by TheLFB-Forex.com |
Usd/Chf Big Picture Elliott Wave
The Swissy still has enough room to move higher on the two hour chart shown below. It looks as though wave v has not even started as this move from wave iii) top is looking corrective. Therefore the market may currently be trading in a wave iv) retrace from where we will be looking higher into wave v), especially if prices break through the small black resistance line shown at wave iii) highs. Our upside targets remains the same as on Monday; somewhere between 50% and 61.8% of wave I) if the markets continue to support the dollar index.
Euro 1.3245
Initial support at 1.3174 (Mar 31 low) followed by 1.3113 (Mar 30 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3343 (Mar 31 high) at followed by 1.3592 (Mar 27 high)
Yen 98.95
Initial support is located at 97.23 (Mar 31 low) followed by 95.43 (Mar 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 99.37 (Mar 31 high) followed by 99.68 (Mar 5 high).
Pound 1.4350
Initial support at 1.4241 (Mar 31 low) followed by 1.4112 (Mar 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.4361 (Mar 31 high) followed by 1.4494 (Mar 27 high).
Australian Dollar 0.6915
Initial support at 0.6771 (Mar 30 low) followed by the 0.6724 (Mar 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.6966 (Mar 31 high) followed by 0.7094 (Mar 24 high).
Gold 918
Initial support at 909 (Mar 30 low) followed by 883 (Mar 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 945 (Mar 26 high) followed by 966 (Mar 20 high).
Currency Sup 2 Sup 1 Spot Res 1 Res 2
EUR/USD 1.3113 1.3174 1.3245 1.3343 1.3592
USD/JPY 95.96 97.23 98.95 99.37 99.68
GBP/USD 1.4112 1.4241 1.4350 1.4361 1.4494
AUD/USD 0.6724 0.6771 0.6915 0.6966 0.7094
XAU/USD 884.00 909.00 918.00 945.00 966.00
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
Euro: We accumulated shorts as suggested yesterday till 1.3340 (21 day 4hrly) and it fell 160 pips post that. Euro stays below the trendline broken on last friday. The view remains bearish till its holding below 1.3330 (38.2% retracement of the recent fall). Maintain sell on retracements around 3240-90 levels for a target of 1.3030. Near term fundamental stays weak. (Eur/Usd:1.3215). BEARISH.
Pound: We had accumulated shorts till 1.43-4350 post which pound fell 90 pips to 1.4255 levels .Strategy for pound still remains bearish. Accumulate shorts from 1.43 - 1.4350 for a target of 1.40 (Gbp/Usd: 1.4315). BEARISH.
Yen: The Usd/Jpy pair had been stuck in the triangular pattern between 95 to 98.70 . The triangle got broken yesterday due to excessive buying in the USD/JPY pair . It has currently taken resistance at the 50% retracement of the medium term fall exactly.We would target 101.64 (61.8% retracement of the major fall) provided 98.00 levels hold good. The strategy remains bullish since its holding above the trendline. Add positions only on 2 closing above 99.00 levels targetting 101.50 . SLIGHTLY NEUTRAL TO BULLISH. (Usd/Jpy: 98.80).
Australian Dollar: Aussie touched the trend line resistance and 21 day day EMA as expected yesterday. Strategy remains to go short on the pair targetting .6500 . Keep STOPS closing above .7050 . BEARISH (Aud/Usd: 0.6890).
Gold: Gold recently had broken the bullish trendline near $930 . Cluster resistance is around 923-25 which should be taken as opportunities to short again. Please note that the daily stochastic of Gold is giving a STRONG buy provided 926 breaks on a sustained basis. Little tricky currently. Stay Short but reverse incase 930 breaks and closes above . NEUTRAL (Gold: $917.60).
Dollar index : Dollar index has broken the down trendline and staying above 86.00 . It inched slightly higher yesterday.Other indicators stays buillish . BULLISH.
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by TheLFB-Forex.com |
Usd/Chf Big Picture Elliott Wave
The Swissy still has enough room to move higher on the two hour chart shown below. It looks as though wave v has not even started as this move from wave iii) top is looking corrective. Therefore the market may currently be trading in a wave iv) retrace from where we will be looking higher into wave v), especially if prices break through the small black resistance line shown at wave iii) highs. Our upside targets remains the same as on Monday; somewhere between 50% and 61.8% of wave I) if the markets continue to support the dollar index.
Potensi Kenaikan IHSG & Regional Asia Terbatas
Potensi kenaikan IHSG terbatas pada pekan ini, berkat perkiraan data inflasi (akan menìngkat berkat pemilu) dan BI akan menahan laju penurunan suku bunga, diikuti prospek ekonomi global yang memburuk (jelang G20 meeting 2 April) dan lapkeu Q1 yang diperkirakan anjlok dari periode sebelumnya. Penurunan harga komoditi & masih tingginya dolar rupiah, serta berakhirnya euphoria window dressing, akan menahan laju kenaikan indeks (emiten perbankan+komoditi catat laba yang solid). IHSG ditutup +15 di 1434. Secara teknikal IHSG menunjukkan Candle bullish harami, MÅCD positif tertahan pola overbought di stochastic & MFI. Sell on rally saham BC selama IHSG gagal tembus 1472, target 1353/1244/1180 lows. Penutupan diatas 1504 [50% fibo) target 1690 (200 day MA).
Sell on rally TLkm dibwh 7850,ASII dibwh 15800,BBRi diatas 4500,PGAS diatas 2200,PTBA dibwh 7500,BUMI dibwh 840 buy jika break,BMRI diatas 2100.
Oil $48.74, gold $922, nickel $9570, tin $10450, DJ Coal +1.9% 156.47.
Saham AS menguat hari Selasa berkat kenaikan saham perbankan [BOA, Citigroup, HSBC) dan Alcoa (spekulasi akuisisi oleh BHP Billiton). Meski data ekonomi AS memburuk (Pending home sales -19%, ISM 31.4, Consumer conf 26.4) dan jelang musim Earnings Q1 pekan depan. Hold sell 7700/8k target 7k/6.7k stop diatas 8150.
Saham Jepang melemah untuk hari ke 3, setelah perusahaan asuransi terpuruk dan kondisi ekonomi Jepang memburuk (unemployment 4.4%, household spending & housing start anjlok) menjelang BOJ Tankan Jepang hari Rabu. Nikkei -126.55 di 8109.53. Hold sell 8190 & 8565 target 8k/7.7k stop diatas 8750.
Komentar positif dari China Construction Bank picu kenaikan saham bank China dan indeks Hang Seng. Analis melihat rebound mungkin telah selesai, dan akan berkonsolidasi di kisaran 12k-12.5k di bulan April, karena memburuknya pandangan ekonomi Global. HSI +119.69 di 13476.02. Hold sell 13490 & 14035 target 12.9k/12k stop diatas 14.2k.
Disclaimer.
Sell on rally TLkm dibwh 7850,ASII dibwh 15800,BBRi diatas 4500,PGAS diatas 2200,PTBA dibwh 7500,BUMI dibwh 840 buy jika break,BMRI diatas 2100.
Oil $48.74, gold $922, nickel $9570, tin $10450, DJ Coal +1.9% 156.47.
Saham AS menguat hari Selasa berkat kenaikan saham perbankan [BOA, Citigroup, HSBC) dan Alcoa (spekulasi akuisisi oleh BHP Billiton). Meski data ekonomi AS memburuk (Pending home sales -19%, ISM 31.4, Consumer conf 26.4) dan jelang musim Earnings Q1 pekan depan. Hold sell 7700/8k target 7k/6.7k stop diatas 8150.
Saham Jepang melemah untuk hari ke 3, setelah perusahaan asuransi terpuruk dan kondisi ekonomi Jepang memburuk (unemployment 4.4%, household spending & housing start anjlok) menjelang BOJ Tankan Jepang hari Rabu. Nikkei -126.55 di 8109.53. Hold sell 8190 & 8565 target 8k/7.7k stop diatas 8750.
Komentar positif dari China Construction Bank picu kenaikan saham bank China dan indeks Hang Seng. Analis melihat rebound mungkin telah selesai, dan akan berkonsolidasi di kisaran 12k-12.5k di bulan April, karena memburuknya pandangan ekonomi Global. HSI +119.69 di 13476.02. Hold sell 13490 & 14035 target 12.9k/12k stop diatas 14.2k.
Disclaimer.
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Daily Recap & Technical Analysis Commodity
TRADING THE PRECIOUS METALS
August gold closed lower on Monday and above he 20-day moving average crossing at 672.80 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 682.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 666.80 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.
July silver closed slightly lower on Monday as it consolidates some of last week's rally but remains above trendline resistance crossing near 13.673. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends last week's rally, April's high crossing at 14.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 13.252 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
July copper closed higher on Monday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 343.87 confirming that a low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the reaction high crossing at 369.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 334.00 would temper the near- term friendly outlook.
TRADING FOOD & FIBER
July coffee closed lower on Monday and below the 38% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 115.68. The low- range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends last week's rally, the 50% retracement level crossing at 119.52 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.29 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted.
July cocoa closed lower on Monday as it extended last week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this Monday's decline, May's low crossing at 17.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 19.11 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.
August gold closed lower on Monday and above he 20-day moving average crossing at 672.80 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 682.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 666.80 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.
July silver closed slightly lower on Monday as it consolidates some of last week's rally but remains above trendline resistance crossing near 13.673. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends last week's rally, April's high crossing at 14.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 13.252 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
July copper closed higher on Monday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 343.87 confirming that a low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the reaction high crossing at 369.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 334.00 would temper the near- term friendly outlook.
TRADING FOOD & FIBER
July coffee closed lower on Monday and below the 38% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 115.68. The low- range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends last week's rally, the 50% retracement level crossing at 119.52 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.29 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted.
July cocoa closed lower on Monday as it extended last week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this Monday's decline, May's low crossing at 17.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 19.11 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.
Dailt Technical Analysis Forex Global
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FX Greece | Mar 31 09 10:12 GMT |
Currency Technical Report
EUR/USD
Resistance: 1,3250/ 1,3285-90/ 1,3310-15/ 1,3350/ 1,3420/ 1,3470/ 1,3520
Support : 1,3210/ 1,3170/ 1,3150/ 1,3120/ 1,3100/ 1,3080/ 1,3045/ 1,3000
Comment: The first day of the week was negative for euro, as it moved towards our targets at 1,3100-20. An upward reaction was expected at these important support levels.
The short term trend remains bearish and the reaction is still in terms of a retracement. If bulls gain momentum at the first support levels at 1,3200-10 and 1,3170-80, it will be a sign of strength. If support is confirmed and we see an upward reaction above 1,3280, our next target will be at 1,3330-50 or 1,3400-20, which was the base of the consolidation before the decline.
Otherwise, a move below 1,3170, will bring the area of 1,3100-20 back into focus. A downward break would cancel our upward expectations and our next target will be at 1,2950.
*STRATEGY :
Small buy orders could be tried at 1,3210 and 1,3180, with stops below yesterdays lows (high risk). Our target will be at 1,3270-80 area.
Buy opportunities would also emerge in case of an upward break of 1,3280, with stops below 1,3240 and target at 1,3340-50 or even 1,3400-20.
Sell orders could be tried at 1,3420-40 with stops above 1,3480 area.
Forex Technical Analytics
CHF
The assumed test of key supports for the realization of the pre-planned buying positions was not confirmed and at the moment preservation of bullish party advantage as well as sign of bearish cycle incompleteness leave the earlier drawn up trading planes practically unchanged. Hence we assume the possibility of rate return to close 1.1410/30 supports, where it is recommended to evaluate activity development of both parties according to the charts of shorter time interval. For buying positions on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 1.1470/90, 1.1540/60 and/or further breakout variant up to 1.1600/20, 1.1680/1.1700, 1.1760/80. An alternative for sells will be below 1.1360 with targets 1.1300/20, 1.1240/60, 1.1160/80.
GBP
The pre-planned breakout variant for sells was realized but with damage in attainment of assumed targets. OsMA trend indicator, having marked Low of the current week by formation of reverse bullish signal with further buying activity rise and considering the chosen strategy gives reasons for buying planning priority in trading operations planning for today. Hence we assume the possibility of rate return to close 1.4220/40 supports, where it is recommended to evaluate activity development of both parties according to the charts of shorter time interval. For short-term buying positions on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 1.4280/1.4300, 1.4360/80 and/or further breakout variant up to 1.4420/40, 1.4500/20, 1.4580/1.4620. An alternative for sells will be below 1.4100 with targets 1.4000/40, 1.3860/1.3900, and 1.3760/80.
JPY
The pre-planned buying positions from key supports were realized with attainment of basic assumed targets. OsMA trend indicator, having marked relative activity rise of both parties as before does not give definiteness in the choice of planning priorities for today. Hence and considering the sign of bearish development incompleteness we assume the possibility of rate return to channel line '1' at 97.40/60, where it is recommended to evaluate activity development of both parties according to the charts of shorter time interval. For short-term buying positions on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 98.00/20, 98.60/80 and/or further breakout variant up to 99.20/40, 99.80/100.00. An alternative for sells will be below 96.80 with targets 96.20/40, 95.60/80.
EUR
The assumed test of key resistance range was confirmed with conditions for the realization of the pre-planned positions for sell. OsMA trend indicator, having marked preservation of bearish party activity gives reasons for preservation of the earlier opened positions for sell with targets 1.3200/20, 1.3140/60, 1.3080/1.3100 and/or further breakout variant up to 1.3020/40, 1.2960/80, 1.2900/20. An alternative for buyers as before will be above 1.3340 with targets 1.3380/1.3400, 1.3460/80, 1.3520/40.
Currency Technical Report
EUR/USD
Resistance: 1,3250/ 1,3285-90/ 1,3310-15/ 1,3350/ 1,3420/ 1,3470/ 1,3520
Support : 1,3210/ 1,3170/ 1,3150/ 1,3120/ 1,3100/ 1,3080/ 1,3045/ 1,3000
Comment: The first day of the week was negative for euro, as it moved towards our targets at 1,3100-20. An upward reaction was expected at these important support levels.
The short term trend remains bearish and the reaction is still in terms of a retracement. If bulls gain momentum at the first support levels at 1,3200-10 and 1,3170-80, it will be a sign of strength. If support is confirmed and we see an upward reaction above 1,3280, our next target will be at 1,3330-50 or 1,3400-20, which was the base of the consolidation before the decline.
Otherwise, a move below 1,3170, will bring the area of 1,3100-20 back into focus. A downward break would cancel our upward expectations and our next target will be at 1,2950.
*STRATEGY :
Small buy orders could be tried at 1,3210 and 1,3180, with stops below yesterdays lows (high risk). Our target will be at 1,3270-80 area.
Buy opportunities would also emerge in case of an upward break of 1,3280, with stops below 1,3240 and target at 1,3340-50 or even 1,3400-20.
Sell orders could be tried at 1,3420-40 with stops above 1,3480 area.
Forex Technical Analytics
CHF
The assumed test of key supports for the realization of the pre-planned buying positions was not confirmed and at the moment preservation of bullish party advantage as well as sign of bearish cycle incompleteness leave the earlier drawn up trading planes practically unchanged. Hence we assume the possibility of rate return to close 1.1410/30 supports, where it is recommended to evaluate activity development of both parties according to the charts of shorter time interval. For buying positions on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 1.1470/90, 1.1540/60 and/or further breakout variant up to 1.1600/20, 1.1680/1.1700, 1.1760/80. An alternative for sells will be below 1.1360 with targets 1.1300/20, 1.1240/60, 1.1160/80.
GBP
The pre-planned breakout variant for sells was realized but with damage in attainment of assumed targets. OsMA trend indicator, having marked Low of the current week by formation of reverse bullish signal with further buying activity rise and considering the chosen strategy gives reasons for buying planning priority in trading operations planning for today. Hence we assume the possibility of rate return to close 1.4220/40 supports, where it is recommended to evaluate activity development of both parties according to the charts of shorter time interval. For short-term buying positions on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 1.4280/1.4300, 1.4360/80 and/or further breakout variant up to 1.4420/40, 1.4500/20, 1.4580/1.4620. An alternative for sells will be below 1.4100 with targets 1.4000/40, 1.3860/1.3900, and 1.3760/80.
JPY
The pre-planned buying positions from key supports were realized with attainment of basic assumed targets. OsMA trend indicator, having marked relative activity rise of both parties as before does not give definiteness in the choice of planning priorities for today. Hence and considering the sign of bearish development incompleteness we assume the possibility of rate return to channel line '1' at 97.40/60, where it is recommended to evaluate activity development of both parties according to the charts of shorter time interval. For short-term buying positions on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 98.00/20, 98.60/80 and/or further breakout variant up to 99.20/40, 99.80/100.00. An alternative for sells will be below 96.80 with targets 96.20/40, 95.60/80.
EUR
The assumed test of key resistance range was confirmed with conditions for the realization of the pre-planned positions for sell. OsMA trend indicator, having marked preservation of bearish party activity gives reasons for preservation of the earlier opened positions for sell with targets 1.3200/20, 1.3140/60, 1.3080/1.3100 and/or further breakout variant up to 1.3020/40, 1.2960/80, 1.2900/20. An alternative for buyers as before will be above 1.3340 with targets 1.3380/1.3400, 1.3460/80, 1.3520/40.
U.S. Dollar Index Stabilizes in April and Sell off in May
Though the longer-term picture for the U.S. Dollar Index appears bleak, with a downside target of $0.80 to $0.81 by June, models suggest the short-term outlook indicates some upward pressure building in April. Resistance is set at $0.8670 during this expected advance. Monty Carlo simulation supports the models outlook with a 95% probability that the currency will trade outside of the $0.70 to $0.83 band over the next 100 days.
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Commodities Trading, Gold, Silver and Crude Oil Take a Breather
Last week all three resources pulled back after posted gains the week before. This week will be interesting with gold trading at support, silver just above and oil looking like its going to come down and test support as well. This week I figure we will see some bounces or breakdowns occur.
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Stocks Bear Market Targets Dow 2,122 and S&P 409
Glenn Thorpe writes: Charts of the DJIA and the SP500 provide a much clearer picture when they are inflation adjusted. This is achieved simply by dividing the index by the CPI at each date. To correlate the two indices the SP500 can be adjusted to equal the the DJIA on 3 Jan 1950, the date the SP500 was created.
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The Physics of bouncing Dead Cats: Will DJIA pierce 6547 this time?
March 14, 2009 Professor Nouriel Roubini wrote a piece: Reflections on the latest dead cat bounce or bear market sucker's rally. Well he could be right, certainly the rally looked busted on Friday and grim on Monday,. plus Tom Dryden pointed out yesterday that those bank profits were thanks to a scam; someone called it a "fraud bounce" http://seekingalpha.com/article/128390-exclusive-big-banks-recent-profitab (but aren't bank profits always thanks to some sort of scam).
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Do Bonds Beat Stocks Over the Long Run?
Investors, we are told, demand a risk premium for investing in stocks rather than bonds. Without that extra return, why invest in risky stocks if you can get guaranteed returns in bonds? This week we look at a brilliantly done paper examining whether or not investors have gotten better returns from stocks over the really long run and not just the last ten years, when stocks have wandered in the wilderness. This will not sit well with the buy and hope crowd, but the data is what the data is. Then we look at how bulls are spinning bad news into good and, if we have time, look at how you should analyze GDP numbers. Are we really down 6%? (Short answer: no.) It should make for a very interesting letter.
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Geithner's Plan Can Succeed in Stabilising Financial System
I am changing my tune. Geithner's plan can succeed. Before anyone collapses on the floor or starts screaming that I have lost my mind, it's important to define what success means and what the plan is.
What Success Is Not
1. Getting banks to lend.
2. Having a fair bidding process.
3. Arriving at a fair market value of bank assets.
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What Success Is Not
1. Getting banks to lend.
2. Having a fair bidding process.
3. Arriving at a fair market value of bank assets.
Download article
IHSG Terpukul Faktor Sentimen & Teknikal Overbought
IHSG masih berpotensi melemah pada pekan ini, berkat investor melakukan profit taking (indeks +101 poin pekan lalu) dan saham Wall Street (hold sell DJIA area 7700/8k tgt 7k/6.7k) terkoreksi untuk hari ke-2 hari Senin (industri otomotif terancam bangkrut & perkiraan krisis sektor AS masih berlanjut). Pelemahan rupiah ke 10,700 per dolar (penutupan hari Senin di 11,565) dan terkoreksinya harga komoditi global, ikut memberikan sentimen negatif kepada saham unggulan & lapis kedua. Kendati sejumlah emiten melaporkan laba tahunan/aksi korporat yang solid (BMRI, BBCA, BBNI, INDY, ANTM), gagal menahan kejatuhan indeks.
Investor diperkirakan menahan diri untuk berspekulasi menjelang data inflasi RI Maret (1 April, prediksi di kisaran 0.02%) dan BI Rate (3 April, prediksi tetap 7.75%), sementara data ekspor Indonesia anjlok 42% di Februari, BI turunkan prediksi pertumbuhan menjadi 3-4%. Sementara di luar negeri, fokus kepada pertemuan bank sentral Eropa & Inggris, G20 di London (2 April), data tenaga kerja AS (Jumat, pengangguran diperkirakan ke level 8.5%, tertinggi sejak 1983).
IHSG diperkirakan dalam range 1350-1470 (maximum critical 1,504) pada pekan ini. Technical overbought & double top formation, potensi koreksi ke 1358 (50-day MA). Harga minyak $48.93, emas $920, nikel $9560, timah $10250, DJ Coal -9% 150.56.
Saran: stay away market & profit taking (BUMI,ASII,TLKM,BBRI,BMRI,PGAS,PTBA,ANTM,INCO,AALI), switch/akumulasi CTRA,INTP,UNVR,BISI,BBNI,PTR0,INDY,ELTY. Buy back BC Kamis-Jumat.
Disclaimer.
Investor diperkirakan menahan diri untuk berspekulasi menjelang data inflasi RI Maret (1 April, prediksi di kisaran 0.02%) dan BI Rate (3 April, prediksi tetap 7.75%), sementara data ekspor Indonesia anjlok 42% di Februari, BI turunkan prediksi pertumbuhan menjadi 3-4%. Sementara di luar negeri, fokus kepada pertemuan bank sentral Eropa & Inggris, G20 di London (2 April), data tenaga kerja AS (Jumat, pengangguran diperkirakan ke level 8.5%, tertinggi sejak 1983).
IHSG diperkirakan dalam range 1350-1470 (maximum critical 1,504) pada pekan ini. Technical overbought & double top formation, potensi koreksi ke 1358 (50-day MA). Harga minyak $48.93, emas $920, nikel $9560, timah $10250, DJ Coal -9% 150.56.
Saran: stay away market & profit taking (BUMI,ASII,TLKM,BBRI,BMRI,PGAS,PTBA,ANTM,INCO,AALI), switch/akumulasi CTRA,INTP,UNVR,BISI,BBNI,PTR0,INDY,ELTY. Buy back BC Kamis-Jumat.
Disclaimer.
Kondisi Teknikal Picu Profit Taking Di Nikkei & Hang Seng
Saham Jepang mengalami penurunan terbesar dalam 2 bulan terakhir berkat spekulasi resesi ekonomi akan memicu lebih banyak kebangkrutan & penjualan mobil akan terkontraksi. Saham Mitsui Fudosan, Takato Egi dan Mizuho Financial Group melemah setelah Goldman Sachs menyarankan penjualan. Indeks Nikkei 225 anjlok 350.89, atau 4.5% di 8,236.08 pada hari Senin. Topix melemah 34.99 di 789.54. Nikkei melemah 7.1% di Q1 2009, meski menguat 8.8% di bulan ini. Kekhawatiran investor terhadap sikap pemerintah kepada GM dan Chrysler yang berpotensi perusahaan mengalami kebangkrutan dan Treasury Geithner mengatakan bank besar di AS mungkin akan membutuhkan bantuan pemerintah yang lebih besar, merupakan berita negatif diikuti kondisi teknikal overbought telah picu aksi profit taking. Hold sell 8190 & 8565 target 7900/7500 stop diatas 8750.
Aksi profit taking di saham bank China setelah Construction Bank China merilis lapkeu yg lebih rendah dari perkiraan, mendorong indeks Hang Seng melemah tajam. HSI anjlok 663.17 atau 4.7% di 13,456.63. Turnover tercatat HK$ 51.53 milyar dari HK$ 58.50 pada hari Jumat. Spekulasi krisis finansial AS belum berakhir berkat memburuknya kondisi keuangan Bank of America & JP Morgan di bulan ini, komentar Presiden Obama mengenai industri otomotif AS & Treasury Geithner yang telah picu kekhawatiran di sektor finansial AS belum berakhir, berperan tekan HSI pada pekan ini sebelum laporan tenaga kerja AS pada hari jumat. Secara teknikal berada dalam kondisi overbought, hold sell 13490 & 14035 target 12900/12500 (profit +295 hari Kamis).
Aksi profit taking di saham bank China setelah Construction Bank China merilis lapkeu yg lebih rendah dari perkiraan, mendorong indeks Hang Seng melemah tajam. HSI anjlok 663.17 atau 4.7% di 13,456.63. Turnover tercatat HK$ 51.53 milyar dari HK$ 58.50 pada hari Jumat. Spekulasi krisis finansial AS belum berakhir berkat memburuknya kondisi keuangan Bank of America & JP Morgan di bulan ini, komentar Presiden Obama mengenai industri otomotif AS & Treasury Geithner yang telah picu kekhawatiran di sektor finansial AS belum berakhir, berperan tekan HSI pada pekan ini sebelum laporan tenaga kerja AS pada hari jumat. Secara teknikal berada dalam kondisi overbought, hold sell 13490 & 14035 target 12900/12500 (profit +295 hari Kamis).