Dolar melemah terhadap euro dan yen berkat spekulasi Presiden Obama akan mengumumkan bantuan lebih lanjut untuk industri otomotif, meredam permintaan untuk mata uang dolar AS sebagai pelarian investasi. Yen mengalami penguatan terbesar mingguan terhadap dolar berkat spekulasi perusahaan domestic akan membawa pulang pendapatan dari luar negeri sebelum akhir tutup tahun fiscal 31 Maret. Dolar Australia dan Selandia Baru berpotensi mengalami penguatan bulanan terbesar dalam lebih dari 20 tahun karena saham global masih melanjutkan kenaikan di seluruh dunia untuk pecan ketiga dan harga komoiti melonjak.
Dolar melemah ke $ 1.3560 terhadap euro di London hari ini dari $ 1.3526 kemarin di New York. Dolar juga melemah ke 97.92 yen dari 98.71 kemarin. Yen menguat ke 132.68 dari 133.52. Aussie berada di 69.82 per dolar. Kiwi berada di 57.31 per dolar. Indeks US Dolar berpotensi mengalami penurunan untuk pecan ketiga setelah Obama kemarin membuat strategi baru untuk industri otomotif dalam beberapa hari mendatang. Indeks USD berada di 83.87.
Sesi New York Update:
* Euro melemah terhadap dolar berkat anjloknya laporan Industrial Orders Euro (-3.4% m/m) dan komentar VP ECB Lucas Papademos bahwa ECB mungkin akan membeli obligasi pemerintah untuk merangsang pertumbuhan.
* Poundsterling melemah terhadap dolar & yen berkat lebih rendahnya GDP Q1 09 menjadi -1.6% q/q, -2.0% y/y, terburuk sejak 1980.
* Yen menguat berkat perkiraan investor Jepang repatriasi dana penghasilan dari luar negeri & terkoreksi saham AS & Eropa.
* Dolar (85.16) menguat berkat pelarian dana untuk safe haven, melihat memburuknya ekonomi Eropa dan spekulasi pertemuan G20 di London 2 April mendatang mungkin tidak akan membuat hasil yang konkrit guna mengatasi krisis ekonomi dunia. Meski data AS menunjukkan kondisi yang mixed. U Michigan Sentiment Final tercatat 57.3 naik dari 56.6. Personal income -0.2%, P consumption +0.2%, 7 negara bagian di AS memiliki umployment di 10% (nasional 8.2%).
* Harga minyak terkoreksi ke $52.16/barel berkat kegagalan tembus resistance di $55 dan prediksi harga minyak yang lebih rendah oleh Goldman Sach. Emas terkoreksi ke $926 berkat investor switching investasi dari komoditi ke dolar AS. Indeks coal -4.67 165.51, nikel -125 9650, timah +160 10350, CPO $670/ton.
* Saham Eropa & AS (DJIA -148; 7776) terkoreksi karena kondisi overbought picu profit taking (saham komoditi & energi) dan lemahnya kondisi keuangan JP Morgan & Bank of America di bulan Maret, General Motor menguat berkat spekulasi bailout lanjutan untuk industri otomotif.
* Rupiah melemah 260 rupiah menjadi 11,580 dimana sempat terpuruk ke 11,750, penguatan selama 4 pekan berturut-turut mengikuti penguatan Bloomberg-JP Morgan Asia Dollar Index diluar yen menguat 0.9% menjadi 104.76. IHSG ditutup menguat 42 poin di 1,462 (dipimpin oleh kenaikan BUMI, TLKM, ASII, PTBA, INCO, AALI) menguat 7.5% pekan ini (investor asing membeli net $120 juta di bulan ini), sama dengan kenaikan MSCI Asia-Pasific (DJIA menguat 11.8%).
Pekan depan:
Tankan BOJ Q2 Jepang (prediksi merosot tajam), ISM Manufacturing & Services (prediksi naik), BOE & ECB meeting (-50bsp & beli goverment bond), G20 di London, Non Farm Payroll (prediksi -641k), Unemployment Jepang & AS (prediksi 8.5%). Indonesia akan merilis data perdagangan, cadangan devisa, inflasi (perkiraan masih inflasi) dan BI rate (-25bsp, -50bsp jika terjadi deflasi di bulan Maret).
Friday, March 27, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Yields: Government Intervention Breeds Uncertainty
For many months, I have been tracking US Government 10 year Treasury bonds essentially stating that they have topped out. In my most recent article on Treasury bonds, I stated: "the upside for Treasury bonds is limited, and there is a high degree of certainty that a new secular trend is developing that favors higher yield pressures. "
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Stock and Housing Market Long Waves
I got it - that's why Bernake (and Geithner) are flying the plane into the ground. The most common cause of air crashes is when pilots fly planes into the ground. The reason they do that is that they get confused about where they are. 23rd March 2009 Chairman Bernanke said that if a couple of trillion hadn't been thrown into the fire, then Plumber Joe (and sweet Mary Lou) would have lost 70% of their 401K by now not 40%; (and presumably their house too). Pity he didn't get around to that conclusion in early 2007 and cut rates to zero then, rather than hanging on for ages telling everyone that everything was under control "so as to instill "confidence"", I quote from his presentation to Congress in May 2007: " At this juncture, however, the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained”.
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Daily Technical Analysis Forex/DJIA/Gold
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FOREX Ltd |
CHF
The assumed test of key resistance range was confirmed with conditions for the realization of the pre-planned long positions. OsMA trend indicator having marked preservation of low activity and current bearish cycle of indicator chart gives reasons for preservation of open short positions for today as well. Hence the targets for short positions will be 1.1180/1.1200, 1.1120/40 and/or further breakout variant below 1.1080 with targets up to 1.1020/40, 1.0940/60, 1.0820/40. The alternative for buyers will be above 1.1360 with targets 1.1400/20, 1.1460/80, 1.1520/40.
GBP
The pre-planned breakout variant for sells was realized with attainment of minimal assumed target. OsMA trend indicator, having marked preservation of minimal bearish activity advantage nevertheless is not a confirming sign for priority of bearish direction in trading operations planning for today. Hence considering the current situation as indefinite and targeting at trading risks decrease we assume the possibility of rate return to upper boundary of Ichimoku cloud at 1.4580/1.4620, where it is recommended to evaluate activity development of both parties according to the charts of shorter time interval. For short-term sells on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 1.4480/1.4520, 1.4360/1.4400, 1.4280/1.4300 and/or further breakout variant up to 1.4210/30, 1.4140/60, 1.4020/60. An alternative for buyers will be above 1.4660 with targets 1.4700/20, 1.4760/80, 1.4820,40, 1.4960/1.5000.
JPY
The pre-planned breakout variant for buying positions was realized but with failure in attainment of minimal assumed targets. OsMA trend indicator, having marked the high of the current week by the sign of pair overbought and by further relative bearish activity rise is not a definite sign for confident choice of sells planning priorities for today. Hence supporting version of possible range rate movement we assume attainment of channel line '1' at 97.00/20, where it is recommended to evaluate activity development of both parties according to the charts of shorter time interval. For short-term buying positions on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 97.60/80, 98.40/60, 99.00/20 and/or further breakout variant up to 99.60/80, 100.20/40. An alternative for sells will be below 96.00 with targets 95.20/40, 94.60/80, 93.80/94.20.
EUR
The pre-planned buying positions from key supports were realized with attainment of minimal assumed target. OsMA trend indicator, having marked preservation of low activity of both parties as before continues supporting version of range rate movement for the choice of planning priorities for today. Hence we assume the possibility of rate return to 1.3480/1.3500 supports, where it is recommended to evaluate activity development of both parties according to the charts of shorter time interval. For short-term buying positions on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 1.3540/60, 1.3620/40, 1.3700/40 and/or further breakout variant up to 1.3780/1.3800, 1.3840,90, 1.3900/20. An alternative for sells will be below 1.3400 with targets 1.3340/60, 1.3280/1.3300, and 1.3160/1.3200.
Gold 933
Initial support at 912 (Fib Retracement) followed by 883 (Mar 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 967 (Mar 20 high) followed by 978 (Feb 25 high).
Commodity Sup 2 Sup 1 Spot Res 1 Res 2
XAU/USD 883.00 912.00 933.00 967.00 978.00
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 7830.00 and 7796.18 (main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 7752.66, where correction also can be. Then follows 7717.50. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 7689.37. Continuation will bring 7644.38 and 7893.75.
Today's resistance: - 7939.68 and 7970.64(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 7998.66, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8021.30, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8039.44. Continuation would bring 8076.13 and 8104.65.
Disclaimer.
CHF
The assumed test of key resistance range was confirmed with conditions for the realization of the pre-planned long positions. OsMA trend indicator having marked preservation of low activity and current bearish cycle of indicator chart gives reasons for preservation of open short positions for today as well. Hence the targets for short positions will be 1.1180/1.1200, 1.1120/40 and/or further breakout variant below 1.1080 with targets up to 1.1020/40, 1.0940/60, 1.0820/40. The alternative for buyers will be above 1.1360 with targets 1.1400/20, 1.1460/80, 1.1520/40.
GBP
The pre-planned breakout variant for sells was realized with attainment of minimal assumed target. OsMA trend indicator, having marked preservation of minimal bearish activity advantage nevertheless is not a confirming sign for priority of bearish direction in trading operations planning for today. Hence considering the current situation as indefinite and targeting at trading risks decrease we assume the possibility of rate return to upper boundary of Ichimoku cloud at 1.4580/1.4620, where it is recommended to evaluate activity development of both parties according to the charts of shorter time interval. For short-term sells on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 1.4480/1.4520, 1.4360/1.4400, 1.4280/1.4300 and/or further breakout variant up to 1.4210/30, 1.4140/60, 1.4020/60. An alternative for buyers will be above 1.4660 with targets 1.4700/20, 1.4760/80, 1.4820,40, 1.4960/1.5000.
JPY
The pre-planned breakout variant for buying positions was realized but with failure in attainment of minimal assumed targets. OsMA trend indicator, having marked the high of the current week by the sign of pair overbought and by further relative bearish activity rise is not a definite sign for confident choice of sells planning priorities for today. Hence supporting version of possible range rate movement we assume attainment of channel line '1' at 97.00/20, where it is recommended to evaluate activity development of both parties according to the charts of shorter time interval. For short-term buying positions on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 97.60/80, 98.40/60, 99.00/20 and/or further breakout variant up to 99.60/80, 100.20/40. An alternative for sells will be below 96.00 with targets 95.20/40, 94.60/80, 93.80/94.20.
EUR
The pre-planned buying positions from key supports were realized with attainment of minimal assumed target. OsMA trend indicator, having marked preservation of low activity of both parties as before continues supporting version of range rate movement for the choice of planning priorities for today. Hence we assume the possibility of rate return to 1.3480/1.3500 supports, where it is recommended to evaluate activity development of both parties according to the charts of shorter time interval. For short-term buying positions on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 1.3540/60, 1.3620/40, 1.3700/40 and/or further breakout variant up to 1.3780/1.3800, 1.3840,90, 1.3900/20. An alternative for sells will be below 1.3400 with targets 1.3340/60, 1.3280/1.3300, and 1.3160/1.3200.
Gold 933
Initial support at 912 (Fib Retracement) followed by 883 (Mar 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 967 (Mar 20 high) followed by 978 (Feb 25 high).
Commodity Sup 2 Sup 1 Spot Res 1 Res 2
XAU/USD 883.00 912.00 933.00 967.00 978.00
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 7830.00 and 7796.18 (main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 7752.66, where correction also can be. Then follows 7717.50. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 7689.37. Continuation will bring 7644.38 and 7893.75.
Today's resistance: - 7939.68 and 7970.64(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 7998.66, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8021.30, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8039.44. Continuation would bring 8076.13 and 8104.65.
Disclaimer.
Crude Oil Makes a Sweek Breakout Buy Signal (Part2)
Crude Oil makes a run higher giving investors some what of a tradable bounce. Although this is great for our long trades, this is a catch 22. Gas prices are starting to rise again and if this trade follows through. we could see $65 per barrel and a possibility of oil retesting $100 level within the next 6-12 months. Not a pleasant thought in the grand scheme of things.
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United States Economy, U.S. Dollar and the China Factor
A crisis of global confidence in the US Dollar is upon us. Foreigners have begun to lose respect for USGovt approach to problem solving, for US bank administration, and for US Dollar custodial management. Foreigner creditors have suffered deep losses from fraudulent bond export, continue to sit atop mountains of US$-based debt securities, and watch current events in horror. The heap of moldy paper includes both USTreasury Bonds and USAgency Mortgage Bonds. Foreigner creditors see the US Dollar valuation propped up by liquidation forces rather than US Economic strength. Foreigner creditors see the USTBond yields forced down by liquidation forces rather than USGovt debt integrity.
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Morgan Stanley - Why the Yen Should Strengthen
Introduction: Trade Balance Collapse Will Likely Reverse
The drop of the Japanese trade surplus has been breathtaking. Japan has run a seasonally adjusted trade deficit since July 2008, a string of deficits not seen for nearly 30 years. Moreover, this decline of the trade surplus has occurred against the background of falling oil prices.
The collapse of global demand and consequent collapse of exports are widely seen as the key source of Japan’s trade balance drop. Indeed, seasonally adjusted exports were running at over JPY7 trillion per month through most of 2007 to mid-2008, but recently have dropped to only about JPY4 trillion. Thus, it is understandable to attribute the drop of the trade surplus to exports, and thus to believe that the yen will be weak until the global economy recovers. However, the full story is more complicated, and has a very different implication for the yen exchange rate.
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The drop of the Japanese trade surplus has been breathtaking. Japan has run a seasonally adjusted trade deficit since July 2008, a string of deficits not seen for nearly 30 years. Moreover, this decline of the trade surplus has occurred against the background of falling oil prices.
The collapse of global demand and consequent collapse of exports are widely seen as the key source of Japan’s trade balance drop. Indeed, seasonally adjusted exports were running at over JPY7 trillion per month through most of 2007 to mid-2008, but recently have dropped to only about JPY4 trillion. Thus, it is understandable to attribute the drop of the trade surplus to exports, and thus to believe that the yen will be weak until the global economy recovers. However, the full story is more complicated, and has a very different implication for the yen exchange rate.
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US Morgan Stanley - Fed’s QE Points to More Monetary Easing in China
A Decisive Step by the US Fed
The US Fed announced that it would purchase US$300 billion of long-dated Treasuries over the next six months. This is a decisive step taken by the Fed in formally adopting quantitative easing (QE), which also features other key policy actions, including the purchase of an additional US$75 billion of agency MBS to make a total of US$1.25 trillion in 2009, increasing the purchase of agency debt by US$100 billion to a total of US$200 billion in 2009, and extending the collateral allowed in the TALF. Many clients wonder what would be the implications of this important policy move by the US monetary authorities on China, the largest creditor country with respect to US sovereign debt.
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The US Fed announced that it would purchase US$300 billion of long-dated Treasuries over the next six months. This is a decisive step taken by the Fed in formally adopting quantitative easing (QE), which also features other key policy actions, including the purchase of an additional US$75 billion of agency MBS to make a total of US$1.25 trillion in 2009, increasing the purchase of agency debt by US$100 billion to a total of US$200 billion in 2009, and extending the collateral allowed in the TALF. Many clients wonder what would be the implications of this important policy move by the US monetary authorities on China, the largest creditor country with respect to US sovereign debt.
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Saham Komoditi & Infrastruktur Berpotensi Extend Rally
IHSG diperkirakan masih mendapatkan support dari kenaikan saham Wall Street dan regional, berkat signal membaiknya laporan ekonomi AS (Existing & New Home Sales, Durable Goods, GDP Q4 lebih baik dari perkiraan) dan program Treasury AS untuk toxic Asset. Capital inflow (investor asing merupakan net buyer saham di bulan ini) masih mendominasi, selain berkat window dressing tutup kuartalan dan penguatan rupiah, terutama menjelang pemilu 9 April, pertemuan kepala negara G20 2 Aprìl di Inggris, potensi penurunan suku bunga BI di awal April, seharusnya mendorong investor memburu saham dan melupakan sejenak krìsis ekonomi global.
Setelah mendapatkan liburan Hari Raya Nyepi, IHSG pada hari Jumat, akan mencoba kembali level 1,450, mengikuti kenaikan Wall Street dalam Rabu-Kamis.
Investor diperkirakan akan memburu kembali saham-saham unggulan (isu dividen: BUMI,INCO,BBNI; upgrade: ASII, INTP; laba emiten JSMR, INDF) yang terkoreksi pada hari Rabu. Kenaikan saham komoditi dapat angkat saham pertambangan & energi. Oil 54.25 +2.03; gold 941.40 +3.49; coal index 2.95% 174.73, nikel 9775 +125, timah 10165 +155.
Technical Analysìs.
IHSG masih berada dalam trend bullish jangka pendek, berkat indikator MACD bullish, MFI meningkat dan volume menurun, meski potensi kenaikan terbatas berkat signal stochastic overbought, candle daily tweezer top (indikasi reversal) atau harami bearish. Tembusnya high 1449.95 akan meredam tekanan bearish untuk target 1472 high Januari dan bahkan 1504 (fibo 50%). Jika pekan ini ditutup dibawah 1409 (100-day MA) memperburuk pandangan jangka pendek, potensi koreksi ke 1383/1353 pekan depan. R: 1428/1434/1449/1459. S: 1409/1398/1383/1368.
BUMI: Range Trading; congestion, volume rendah, candle dojis meski MACD bullish & MFI turun. R: 820/840(buy break+vol up)/870(buy break). S: 790 (buy)/770/750 (buy).
TLKM: rejection selama ditutup dibawah 7550. Candle Tweezer top, inverse H&S, stoch overbought tetapi MACD bullish & vol turun. R: 7300/7500 (Sell, buy jika tembus 7550)/7850. S: 6900/6650/6450 (buy).
PGAS: kenaikan lemah. Candle harami star, vol divergence, inverse H&S, stoch overbought meski MACD bullish & diatas 200-day MA. R: 2200/2275(buy break+vol up)/2400(sell). S:
2100/2050(buy)/1975.
BMRI: kenaikan terbatas. Stochastic & MFI overbought, vol turun, meski MACD bullish & pola saucer. R: 2200/2350(sell)/2450(buy break+vol up). S:2050/1975 (buy)/1900 (buy). JSMR: Extend rally. stochastic crossing up, vol & MFI up, meski MACD bearish & candle shooting star. R: 940/960 (buy)/990. S: 920(buy)/900/870 (buy).
INDF: trend lemah. MACD bearish, MFI & vol turun, candle doji star meski stoch crossing up. R: 980/1000 (buy break+vol up)/1030. S: 940/900 (buy)/870.
Resiko (stop losß): 5 points dari posisi Open.
Disclaimer.
Setelah mendapatkan liburan Hari Raya Nyepi, IHSG pada hari Jumat, akan mencoba kembali level 1,450, mengikuti kenaikan Wall Street dalam Rabu-Kamis.
Investor diperkirakan akan memburu kembali saham-saham unggulan (isu dividen: BUMI,INCO,BBNI; upgrade: ASII, INTP; laba emiten JSMR, INDF) yang terkoreksi pada hari Rabu. Kenaikan saham komoditi dapat angkat saham pertambangan & energi. Oil 54.25 +2.03; gold 941.40 +3.49; coal index 2.95% 174.73, nikel 9775 +125, timah 10165 +155.
Technical Analysìs.
IHSG masih berada dalam trend bullish jangka pendek, berkat indikator MACD bullish, MFI meningkat dan volume menurun, meski potensi kenaikan terbatas berkat signal stochastic overbought, candle daily tweezer top (indikasi reversal) atau harami bearish. Tembusnya high 1449.95 akan meredam tekanan bearish untuk target 1472 high Januari dan bahkan 1504 (fibo 50%). Jika pekan ini ditutup dibawah 1409 (100-day MA) memperburuk pandangan jangka pendek, potensi koreksi ke 1383/1353 pekan depan. R: 1428/1434/1449/1459. S: 1409/1398/1383/1368.
BUMI: Range Trading; congestion, volume rendah, candle dojis meski MACD bullish & MFI turun. R: 820/840(buy break+vol up)/870(buy break). S: 790 (buy)/770/750 (buy).
TLKM: rejection selama ditutup dibawah 7550. Candle Tweezer top, inverse H&S, stoch overbought tetapi MACD bullish & vol turun. R: 7300/7500 (Sell, buy jika tembus 7550)/7850. S: 6900/6650/6450 (buy).
PGAS: kenaikan lemah. Candle harami star, vol divergence, inverse H&S, stoch overbought meski MACD bullish & diatas 200-day MA. R: 2200/2275(buy break+vol up)/2400(sell). S:
2100/2050(buy)/1975.
BMRI: kenaikan terbatas. Stochastic & MFI overbought, vol turun, meski MACD bullish & pola saucer. R: 2200/2350(sell)/2450(buy break+vol up). S:2050/1975 (buy)/1900 (buy). JSMR: Extend rally. stochastic crossing up, vol & MFI up, meski MACD bearish & candle shooting star. R: 940/960 (buy)/990. S: 920(buy)/900/870 (buy).
INDF: trend lemah. MACD bearish, MFI & vol turun, candle doji star meski stoch crossing up. R: 980/1000 (buy break+vol up)/1030. S: 940/900 (buy)/870.
Resiko (stop losß): 5 points dari posisi Open.
Disclaimer.
Nikkeì & Hang Seng Menghadapi Prospek Profit Taking
Nikkei 225
Saham Jepang menguat, mendorong indeks Topix mengalami kenaikan selama 9 hari berturut-turut, berkat signal membaiknya sejumlah data ekonomi AS yang meredakan kekhawatiran terhadap resesi global. Saham Canon Inc, Sony Corp, Elpida Memory Inc mengalami kenaikan. Nikkei 225 naik 156.34, ditutup di 8,636,33, level tertinggi sejak 9 Januari. Topix naik 8.32 di 826.81. Nikkei futures Juni ditutup menguat 1.3% di 8,550 di Osaka. Lebih baiknya data GDP Q4 AS -6.3% dari perkiraan -6.6% dan suksesnya penjualan Treasury AS hari Kamis, dapat memberikan sentimen positif untuk Nikkei. Secara teknikal, Nikkei masih mampu menguat ke target 8,750 (upper Bollinger Band), karena vol & MFI up, Stochastic bullish, 20 & 50 day MA crossing. Hold sell 8190 & 8560 target 7900 stop diatas 8750. R: 8790/8860/8900. S: 8640/8510/8380.
HANG SENG
Saham Industrial & Commerce Bank of China memimpin kenaikan di saham bank China hari Kamis, mendorong indeks Hang Seng melampaui level 14,000. HSI ditutup menguat 486.87 poin, di 14,108.98. Turnover tercatat HK$ 64.05 milyar dari HK$ 54.15 milyar. Tetapi trader mengatakan pasar mungkin kehilangan tenaga dalam waktu dekat di tengah kekhawatiran pendapatan korporasi dan pandangan ekonomi. Hold sell 13490 dan 14035 target 12900 stop diatas 14450. Technikal trend bullish, stochastic (wary of overbought)+vol up, inverse H&S. R: 14207/14334/14460 (sell). S: 13980/13775 (sell break)/13515.
Disclaimer.
Saham Jepang menguat, mendorong indeks Topix mengalami kenaikan selama 9 hari berturut-turut, berkat signal membaiknya sejumlah data ekonomi AS yang meredakan kekhawatiran terhadap resesi global. Saham Canon Inc, Sony Corp, Elpida Memory Inc mengalami kenaikan. Nikkei 225 naik 156.34, ditutup di 8,636,33, level tertinggi sejak 9 Januari. Topix naik 8.32 di 826.81. Nikkei futures Juni ditutup menguat 1.3% di 8,550 di Osaka. Lebih baiknya data GDP Q4 AS -6.3% dari perkiraan -6.6% dan suksesnya penjualan Treasury AS hari Kamis, dapat memberikan sentimen positif untuk Nikkei. Secara teknikal, Nikkei masih mampu menguat ke target 8,750 (upper Bollinger Band), karena vol & MFI up, Stochastic bullish, 20 & 50 day MA crossing. Hold sell 8190 & 8560 target 7900 stop diatas 8750. R: 8790/8860/8900. S: 8640/8510/8380.
HANG SENG
Saham Industrial & Commerce Bank of China memimpin kenaikan di saham bank China hari Kamis, mendorong indeks Hang Seng melampaui level 14,000. HSI ditutup menguat 486.87 poin, di 14,108.98. Turnover tercatat HK$ 64.05 milyar dari HK$ 54.15 milyar. Tetapi trader mengatakan pasar mungkin kehilangan tenaga dalam waktu dekat di tengah kekhawatiran pendapatan korporasi dan pandangan ekonomi. Hold sell 13490 dan 14035 target 12900 stop diatas 14450. Technikal trend bullish, stochastic (wary of overbought)+vol up, inverse H&S. R: 14207/14334/14460 (sell). S: 13980/13775 (sell break)/13515.
Disclaimer.
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Forex Today: Spekulasi Program Treasury & Revisi GDP AS Menekan Dolar
Dolar AS melemah terhadap euro dan pound, setelah Treasury Secretary Geithner semalam, mengatakan perlunya mata uang baru untuk cadangan devisa global, selain dolar dan penguatan Wall Street setelah data ekonomi AS tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan. Sementara yen melemah terhadap euro dan dolar, berkat spekulasi resesi ekonomi di Jepang memburuk. Data Retail Sales Jepang bulan Februari akan terkontraksi 3.0%, penurunan untuk bulan ke-6. Indeks saham Nikkei 225 dan MSCI Asia Pasific melanjutkan kenaikan menjadi 21% dari level terendah di bulan ini, setelah DJI futures tercatat +56 poin di sesi Asia hari ini. Dolar menguat ke 97.74 yen, melemah ke 1.3590 per euro, 1.4576 per pound, 0.6991 per aussie. Indeks US Dolar sedikit tidak berubah di 83.706.
Dolar gagal memanfaatkan keuntungan dari lebih baik dari perkiraan data Durables Goods Orders (3.4%), New Home Sales (4.7%; 332k), Mortgage Application (40.3%). Melonjaknya yield Treasury AS berkat gagal tercapainya target lelang, mengikuti kegagalan lelang Gilts Inggris kemarin. Spekulasi direvisi turun GDP AS Q4 08 menjadi -6.6% dari laporan awal -6.2% dan perkiraan Treasury Geithner akan memberikan 4 bentuk detail program pembelian toxic asset $300 miliar nanti malam. Nanti malam juga President Fed Dallas Richard Lockhart dan President Fed Kansas Jeffrey Lacker akan berbicara pada pukul 24.00. Sementara potensi penguatan euro terbatas berkat lemahnya sentimen bisnis IFO Jerman ke 82.1 di bulan Maret dan laporan Banque AIG Prancis, anak perusahaan AIG inc AS, memiliki kontrak derivatif $236 milyar yang terancam default setelah 2 eksekutifnya mengundurkan diri. Potensi penguatan pound terbatas berkat kegagalan lelang obligasi Inggris kemarin dan lemahnya CBI Orders Maret.
Dolar gagal memanfaatkan keuntungan dari lebih baik dari perkiraan data Durables Goods Orders (3.4%), New Home Sales (4.7%; 332k), Mortgage Application (40.3%). Melonjaknya yield Treasury AS berkat gagal tercapainya target lelang, mengikuti kegagalan lelang Gilts Inggris kemarin. Spekulasi direvisi turun GDP AS Q4 08 menjadi -6.6% dari laporan awal -6.2% dan perkiraan Treasury Geithner akan memberikan 4 bentuk detail program pembelian toxic asset $300 miliar nanti malam. Nanti malam juga President Fed Dallas Richard Lockhart dan President Fed Kansas Jeffrey Lacker akan berbicara pada pukul 24.00. Sementara potensi penguatan euro terbatas berkat lemahnya sentimen bisnis IFO Jerman ke 82.1 di bulan Maret dan laporan Banque AIG Prancis, anak perusahaan AIG inc AS, memiliki kontrak derivatif $236 milyar yang terancam default setelah 2 eksekutifnya mengundurkan diri. Potensi penguatan pound terbatas berkat kegagalan lelang obligasi Inggris kemarin dan lemahnya CBI Orders Maret.
Nikkei 225 & Hang Seng Terkoreksi Berkat Aksi Profit Taking
NIKKEI 225
Saham Jepang ditutup mix hari Rabu, indeks Topix melanjutkan kenaikan untuk hari ke-8 secara berturut-turut, penampilan terbaik dalam 4.5 tahun berkat musim pembagian dividen. Topix menguat 5.77 poin, di 818.49, meski Nikkei 225 melemah tipis 8.31 di 8,479.99 berkat penurunan harga komoditi yang melemahkan saham pertambangan & laporan rekor penurunan bulanan ekspor Jepang -49.9% di Februari. Nikkei menguat 20% dari level terendah 26 tahun pada 10 Maret, meski masih melemah 4.3% dalam 3 bulan ini di 2009. Hari Rabu merupakan hari terakhir pengumuman perusahaan akan membagikan dividen. Nikkei Juni menguat 0.4% menjadi 8,430 di Osaka. Lebih baik dari perkiraan data ekonomi AS dirilis Rabu, dapat memberikan support kepada saham global. Hold sell 8,190 dan sell kembali di 8,560 target 7,500, resiko diatas 8,750 karena masih berada dalam BEAR MARKET RALLY wave IV dan candle daily bearish harami. Resistance: 8563 (sell)/8507 (buy jika break)/8440. Support: 8335/8233 (sell jika break)/8150.
HANG SENG
Profit taking di saham HSBC dan lemahnya lapkeu Citic Pacific & Wharf menekan indeks saham HSI, tetapi Sinopec justru menguat setelah China menaikkan harga BBM. Hang Seng melemah 288.43 di 13,621.11 setelah diperdagangkan di 13,567.45-13,892.88. Turnover tercatat HK$ 54.13 miliar dari HK$63.88 miliar pada hari Selasa. Trader mengatakan profit-taking telah diperkirakan sebelumnya, setelah rally 8.4% dalam 2 hari, tetapi kebanyakan trader melihat ketidakpastian di pasar, dimana detail rencana Treasury AS untuk melenyapkan toxic asset. Positifnya data ekonomi AS dapat meredam potensi profit taking, meski kondisi teknikal overbought dan candle bearish harami dengan vol menurun, hold sell 13,490 dan 14,035 target 12,500 stop diatas 14,200. Resistance: 13790 (buy jika break)/13940/14035 (sell)/14205. Support: 13620/13530 (sell jika break)/13289/13088.
Saham Jepang ditutup mix hari Rabu, indeks Topix melanjutkan kenaikan untuk hari ke-8 secara berturut-turut, penampilan terbaik dalam 4.5 tahun berkat musim pembagian dividen. Topix menguat 5.77 poin, di 818.49, meski Nikkei 225 melemah tipis 8.31 di 8,479.99 berkat penurunan harga komoditi yang melemahkan saham pertambangan & laporan rekor penurunan bulanan ekspor Jepang -49.9% di Februari. Nikkei menguat 20% dari level terendah 26 tahun pada 10 Maret, meski masih melemah 4.3% dalam 3 bulan ini di 2009. Hari Rabu merupakan hari terakhir pengumuman perusahaan akan membagikan dividen. Nikkei Juni menguat 0.4% menjadi 8,430 di Osaka. Lebih baik dari perkiraan data ekonomi AS dirilis Rabu, dapat memberikan support kepada saham global. Hold sell 8,190 dan sell kembali di 8,560 target 7,500, resiko diatas 8,750 karena masih berada dalam BEAR MARKET RALLY wave IV dan candle daily bearish harami. Resistance: 8563 (sell)/8507 (buy jika break)/8440. Support: 8335/8233 (sell jika break)/8150.
HANG SENG
Profit taking di saham HSBC dan lemahnya lapkeu Citic Pacific & Wharf menekan indeks saham HSI, tetapi Sinopec justru menguat setelah China menaikkan harga BBM. Hang Seng melemah 288.43 di 13,621.11 setelah diperdagangkan di 13,567.45-13,892.88. Turnover tercatat HK$ 54.13 miliar dari HK$63.88 miliar pada hari Selasa. Trader mengatakan profit-taking telah diperkirakan sebelumnya, setelah rally 8.4% dalam 2 hari, tetapi kebanyakan trader melihat ketidakpastian di pasar, dimana detail rencana Treasury AS untuk melenyapkan toxic asset. Positifnya data ekonomi AS dapat meredam potensi profit taking, meski kondisi teknikal overbought dan candle bearish harami dengan vol menurun, hold sell 13,490 dan 14,035 target 12,500 stop diatas 14,200. Resistance: 13790 (buy jika break)/13940/14035 (sell)/14205. Support: 13620/13530 (sell jika break)/13289/13088.
Harga Minyak Terkoreksi Berkat Melonjaknya Inventory AS
Harga minyak mentah melemah setelah laporan departemen energi AS menunjukkan inventories melonjak ke level tertìnggi sejak 1993, karena penurunan permintaan. Supply meningkat 3.3 juta barel menjadi 356.6 juta barel di pekan 20 Maret, melampaui prediksi kenaikan 1.1 juta barel. Sementara stockpiles crude meningkat 4.58 juta barel menjadi 354.5 juta barel. Harga minyak mentah telah menguat 19% di tahun ini. Harga crude melemah 75 sen menjadi $52.23/barel. Tetapi laporan ekonomi AS hari Rabu tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan (mortgage application, durable goods, new home sales), diikuti komentar negatif Treasury Geithner mengenai dolar, memberikan support kepada crude untuk target $55, bahkan ke resistance $63, selama ditutup harian diatas $49.
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Rupiah Melemah Berkat Terkoreksinya Pasar Saham & Obligasi Lokal
Mata uang rupiah terkoreksi terhadap dolar, mengikuti koreksi di pasar mata uang regional dan saham Asia, yang memicu aksi profit-taking di saham dan obligasi lokal yang telah menguat tajam beberapa hari lalu. Rupiah melemah ke 11,608 per dolar pada pukul 16.00 WIB (Bloomberg). IHSG ditutup terkoreksi tajam -16 poin menjadi 1,419 (karena kegagalan tembus high kemarin di 1,449.5, potensi bearish reversal dan shooting star candle). Indeks MSCI Asia Pacific melemah 0.4 persen setelah menguat kemarin ke level tertinggi sejak 18 Februari. Indeks melemah 6 persen di tahun ini dan berpotensi mengalami penurunan selama 6 kuartal berturut-turut.
Laporan ekspor Jepang mengalami rekor penurunan di Februari sebesar 49.4 persen dari tahun sebelumnya, terburuk sejak 1980. Order untuk pengiriman luar negeri di Taiwan anjlok 22.3 persen di bulan yang sama. Rupiah melemah juga berkat faktor teknikal yang menunjukkan kondisi oversold dan bullish reversal setelah kemarin sempat mencapai level tertinggi 11,360. Indonesia dilaporkan akan menjual obligasi dalam bentuk mata uang yen senilai 500 juta dolar di bulan Juni dan obligasi syariah untuk membiayai defisit perdagangan, setelah pada bulan Februari telah menjual obligasi senilai $ 3 miliar untuk membiayai defisit anggaran 2009 sebesar $12 miliar, 139.5 triliun rupiah.
Tambahan: (Sumber Bloomberg)
Saham ASII diupgrade BNP Paribas menjadi 16,950 dari 14,600, karena perusahaan akan mendapatkan keuntungan dari penguatan ru[iah, lebih rendahnya suku bunga dan membaiknya likuiditas. INTP diupgrade oleh CLSA Asia Pacific Market menjadi 5,700 dari 4,100, karena pertumbuhan jangka panjang perusahaan menarik meski pendapatan moderat di tahun ini. INDF mencatat kerugian $ 8.9 juta dalam 3 bulan hingga Desember 2008.
Laporan ekspor Jepang mengalami rekor penurunan di Februari sebesar 49.4 persen dari tahun sebelumnya, terburuk sejak 1980. Order untuk pengiriman luar negeri di Taiwan anjlok 22.3 persen di bulan yang sama. Rupiah melemah juga berkat faktor teknikal yang menunjukkan kondisi oversold dan bullish reversal setelah kemarin sempat mencapai level tertinggi 11,360. Indonesia dilaporkan akan menjual obligasi dalam bentuk mata uang yen senilai 500 juta dolar di bulan Juni dan obligasi syariah untuk membiayai defisit perdagangan, setelah pada bulan Februari telah menjual obligasi senilai $ 3 miliar untuk membiayai defisit anggaran 2009 sebesar $12 miliar, 139.5 triliun rupiah.
Tambahan: (Sumber Bloomberg)
Saham ASII diupgrade BNP Paribas menjadi 16,950 dari 14,600, karena perusahaan akan mendapatkan keuntungan dari penguatan ru[iah, lebih rendahnya suku bunga dan membaiknya likuiditas. INTP diupgrade oleh CLSA Asia Pacific Market menjadi 5,700 dari 4,100, karena pertumbuhan jangka panjang perusahaan menarik meski pendapatan moderat di tahun ini. INDF mencatat kerugian $ 8.9 juta dalam 3 bulan hingga Desember 2008.
Forex Today: Komentar "Strong Dollar" Obama, Picu Penguatan Dolar AS
Dolar diperdagangkan di dekat level tertinggi satu pekan terhadap euro setelah Presiden AS Barack Obama mengatakan mata uang dolar “extradiornarily strong” karena investor yakin terhadap ekonomi. Yen menguat untuk hari ke-2 terhadap mata uang Eropa dan dolar berkat spekulasi perusahaan Jepang akan membawa kembali pendapatan dari aset di luar negeri sebelum berakhirnya tutup buku fiskal pada pekan depan. Euro diperdagangkan ke level terendah hampir 2 pekan terhadap Swiss franc sebelum laporan sentimen bisnis Ifo Jerman menunjukkan penurunan ke level terendah lebih dari 26 tahun. Dolar diperdagangkan di $ 1.3466 per euro di pasar London dari $ 1.3468 di New York kemarin, ketika mencapai level $ 1.3431, terkuat sejak 19 Maret. Dolar berada di 97.58 yen dari 97.86 yen. Euro berada di 1.5228 francs dari 1.5244. Yen diperdagangkan di 131.32 per euro dari 131.81. Indeks US Dollar berada di 84.095, menguat 0.3 persen.
Euro mungkin melemah jika data Ifo Jerman bulan Maret diperkirakan anjlok ke 82.2 dari 82.6 di Februari, yang merupakan level terendah sejak November 1982. Investor memperkirakan ECB akan menurunkan suku bunga 50 bsp pada pertemuan 2 April menjadi 1.00 persen.Royal Bank of Scotland menyarankan penjualan euro terhadap dolar Australia karena ECB akan membeli obligasi pemerintah lebih cepat ketimbang Reserve Bank of Australia. Sementara Merrill Lynch memprediksikan yen mungkin akan melemah ke 117 yen terhadap dolar di Juni tahun depan karena anjloknya ekspor Jepang, menurunkan permintaan untuk yen dari perusahaan yang melakukan repatriasi pendapatan mereka di luar negeri. Prediksi tersebut direvisi dari 102 yen. ML juga melihat peluang yen melemah mendekati 100 per yen di awal bulan Juni.
Euro mungkin melemah jika data Ifo Jerman bulan Maret diperkirakan anjlok ke 82.2 dari 82.6 di Februari, yang merupakan level terendah sejak November 1982. Investor memperkirakan ECB akan menurunkan suku bunga 50 bsp pada pertemuan 2 April menjadi 1.00 persen.Royal Bank of Scotland menyarankan penjualan euro terhadap dolar Australia karena ECB akan membeli obligasi pemerintah lebih cepat ketimbang Reserve Bank of Australia. Sementara Merrill Lynch memprediksikan yen mungkin akan melemah ke 117 yen terhadap dolar di Juni tahun depan karena anjloknya ekspor Jepang, menurunkan permintaan untuk yen dari perusahaan yang melakukan repatriasi pendapatan mereka di luar negeri. Prediksi tersebut direvisi dari 102 yen. ML juga melihat peluang yen melemah mendekati 100 per yen di awal bulan Juni.
Daily Commodities Market Recap and Technical Analysis
Gold: Gold loses glitter as it shed $27 from the strong resistance of $943 and investors losing hope of alternative investment in gold. The daily and hourly charts continue to give selling bias in gold heading towards the immediate support of $910 (55 daily EMA). Resistance comes in at $931 (21 daily EMA) where Gold short can be considered for $8-10. Alternatively buying Gold around $900 could be considered. (Gold: $926.80).
July silver closed slightly lower on Monday as it consolidates some of last week's rally but remains above trendline resistance crossing near 13.673. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends last week's rally, April's high crossing at 14.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 13.252 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
July copper closed higher on Monday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 343.87 confirming that a low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the reaction high crossing at 369.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 334.00 would temper the near- term friendly outlook.
July cocoa closed lower on Monday as it extended last week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this Monday's decline, May's low crossing at 17.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 19.11 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.
www.marketclub.com
July silver closed slightly lower on Monday as it consolidates some of last week's rally but remains above trendline resistance crossing near 13.673. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends last week's rally, April's high crossing at 14.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 13.252 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
July copper closed higher on Monday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 343.87 confirming that a low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the reaction high crossing at 369.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 334.00 would temper the near- term friendly outlook.
July cocoa closed lower on Monday as it extended last week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this Monday's decline, May's low crossing at 17.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 19.11 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.
www.marketclub.com
Strong Gold Bull Market Foundations on Developing Inflation Crisis
The Federal Reserve shocked the markets this week by taking new dramatic actions to end the recession. They announced they'll be buying more than $1 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds and mortgage backed securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This means the Fed will be creating even more money to buy this debt, and that immediately affected all of the markets.
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Stocks Stealth Bull Market Carpet Bombs the Bears
Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2- The stealth bull market in a not quite as stealthy manner as I would have liked decided to carpet bomb the bears with a powerful 500 point up thrust that has left many speculators and analysts that are not participating in the rally stunned into inaction as the smart investors continued to accumulate in the face of overwhelming majority of frightened investors to scared to participate in the face of continuing overwhelming bearish data and mis-information most notably evident in the consensus that stock prices will revert to below the mean in terms of corporate earnings.
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Protect Your Wealth from the Secular Stocks Bear Market
Almost exactly six months ago, I wrote in these pages to deliver you a message of warning. In a special edition of Money and Markets * on September 22, 2008, I warned you NOT to expect a quick end to this epic bear market in stocks. I also outlined several steps that could help you defend and possibly even grow your wealth in this turbulent market. The reason for my warning last September is one and the same with my biggest concern today … we remain locked in a punishing, long-term, secular bear market, and I'm concerned your investments may not be fully prepared to weather this financial storm.
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When the United States Ruled the World
America has squandered the human sacrifice, blood, sweat and tears of two generations in less than seventy years. We have been an independent country for 226 years. From 1783 until 1946 was an unrelenting upward trajectory for the beacon of the free world. With the end of World War II , America was the last country standing. Germany and Japan were in shambles. Russia had lost millions of citizens, with Stalin about to murder millions more. Great Britain was a shell of its former self. The American Empire had been born. We were the manufacturer to the world. We rebuilt Europe and Japan . Our military was dominant. We made the best automobiles. We built 41,000 miles of national highway over two decades. In 1946, one in three U.S. workers was employed in the manufacturing industry. Today, less than one in ten workers makes something.
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Roadmap to Inflation And How to Protect Your Investments
What happens when inflation once again returns. As this week's Outside the Box writer, James Montier, writes, we may want to start thinking now about inflation insurance and he mentions a few ways to do so. But this letter is a must read for his bringing to light a speech by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke in 2000 given to the Japanese, where he suggest inflation targeting:
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Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Extend Rally IHSG Diperkirakan Terbatas Pada Hari Rabu
Indeks kembali melanjutkan penguatannya ke level 1.436.11 (+2,09%) setelah pada penutupan kemarin menguat +3.36%. Bursa regional juga terlihat mengalami kenaikan. Nikkei +3.3%, Hang Seng +3.4%, Kospi +1.8%, Australia +0.8%. Sementara di IHSG, sektor pendorong penguatan indeks didominasi oleh sektor mining setelah harga minyak kemarin melonjak US$ 1,73 (+3,3%) ke level US$ 53,80/brl.
BUMI +3.8% ke Rp800, kembali memfaktorkan rencana dividend pay out sebesar 30% atau Rp117.8/lembar. TLKM +0.6% ke Rp7.400 setelah adanya rencana pembagian dividen sebesar 50% dari laba bersih. INCO +11.7%, memfaktorkan rumor yang mengatakan INCO akan membagikan dividen sebesar US$359.3 juta.HEXA melonjak tajam ke level +24.7% dan terkena autorejection batas atas setelah beredar rumor akan dibeli oleh Hitachi. BMRI +1.16% setelah CFO BMRI, Pahala Mansyuri mengatakan laba bersih FY08 akan lebih dari 10%, estimasi kami sendiri +18% dengan laba Rp 5,2 triliun.
Detik.com
Technical Analysis
Kenaikan IHSG pada hari Selasa telah melampaui retracement Fibo 38.2% (1,933-1,089) di 1,412, didukung oleh climax volume, ADX yang masih trending up karena masih crossing up diatas level 25 dan mulai mendekati level overbought dan signal golden cross 35-55 day MA, seharusnya mendukung potensi profit-taking (koreksi penurunan) jika gagal menembus high Selasa di 1,495.95, untuk target 1,412/1,395/1,374 (35-day MA) pada pekan depan. Kenaikan IHSG pada pekan ini merupakan potensi "BEAR MARKET RALLY". Untuk menetralkan trend bearish med-term, IHSG harus ditutup diatas 1,472 (Januari high) dan 50% Fibo di 1,5010, target 1,695 (200-day MA). Tetapi chart weekly & monthly (MACD negatif, ADX lemah) masih mendukung trend bearish selama bulan April-Mei ke arah 1,244/1,180, terutama selama ditutup bulanan di bawah fibo 38.2% (2.832/1,089) di 1,730.
R4 1535.89/R3 1494.10/R2 1463.93/R1 1443.03
PP 1431.41
S1 1422.14/S2 1401.24/S3 1368.72/S4 1326.93
Disclaimer.
BUMI +3.8% ke Rp800, kembali memfaktorkan rencana dividend pay out sebesar 30% atau Rp117.8/lembar. TLKM +0.6% ke Rp7.400 setelah adanya rencana pembagian dividen sebesar 50% dari laba bersih. INCO +11.7%, memfaktorkan rumor yang mengatakan INCO akan membagikan dividen sebesar US$359.3 juta.HEXA melonjak tajam ke level +24.7% dan terkena autorejection batas atas setelah beredar rumor akan dibeli oleh Hitachi. BMRI +1.16% setelah CFO BMRI, Pahala Mansyuri mengatakan laba bersih FY08 akan lebih dari 10%, estimasi kami sendiri +18% dengan laba Rp 5,2 triliun.
Detik.com
Technical Analysis
Kenaikan IHSG pada hari Selasa telah melampaui retracement Fibo 38.2% (1,933-1,089) di 1,412, didukung oleh climax volume, ADX yang masih trending up karena masih crossing up diatas level 25 dan mulai mendekati level overbought dan signal golden cross 35-55 day MA, seharusnya mendukung potensi profit-taking (koreksi penurunan) jika gagal menembus high Selasa di 1,495.95, untuk target 1,412/1,395/1,374 (35-day MA) pada pekan depan. Kenaikan IHSG pada pekan ini merupakan potensi "BEAR MARKET RALLY". Untuk menetralkan trend bearish med-term, IHSG harus ditutup diatas 1,472 (Januari high) dan 50% Fibo di 1,5010, target 1,695 (200-day MA). Tetapi chart weekly & monthly (MACD negatif, ADX lemah) masih mendukung trend bearish selama bulan April-Mei ke arah 1,244/1,180, terutama selama ditutup bulanan di bawah fibo 38.2% (2.832/1,089) di 1,730.
R4 1535.89/R3 1494.10/R2 1463.93/R1 1443.03
PP 1431.41
S1 1422.14/S2 1401.24/S3 1368.72/S4 1326.93
Disclaimer.
Nikkei & Hang Seng Masih Mendapatkan Keuntungan Dari Euphoria Window Dressing
Nikkei 225
Saham Jepang melanjutkan rally 2-pekan terakhir, berkat optimisme rencana Treasury AS untuk mengatasi aset bank yang bermasalah, akan membangkitkan pasar kredit global. Nikkei 225 average menguat 272.77, atau 3.3 persen, ditutup di 8,488.30 di Tokyo. Indeks telah menguat 20 persen sejak mencapai level terendah 26-tahun pada 10 Maret, menunjukkan potensi bull market. Indeks Topix menguat 21.16, atau 2.7 persen, menjadi 812.7, menguat untuk hari ke-7 untuk kenaikan terlama sejak 7 Januari. Pelemahan yen ke 98.56 terhadap dolar AS pada hari Selasa, ikut memberikan sentimen positif kepada Nikkei. Nikkei futures yang expired Juni menguat 2.7 persen menjadi 8,400 di Osaka, menguat 2.8 persen menjadi 8,405 di Singapura. Hold sell 8,190 target 7350/7500 stop diatas 8,500, sell again dibawah 50day MA.
R4 8743.33, R3 8623.33, R2 8503.33, R1 8426.67, PP 8383.33
S1 8306.67, S2 8263.33, S3 8143.33, S4 8023.33
Hang Seng
Melejitnya saham Wall Street mengikuti rencana pemerintah AS untuk melenyapkan aset bank yang bermasalah telah mengangkat indeks saham Hong Kong ke level tertinggi lebi dari 10 pekan pada hari Selasa, dipimpin oleh kenaikan HSBC. Trader mengatakan pasar lokal masih berkonsolidasi dalam waktu dekat setelah menguat 8.4% pada pekan ini. Hang Seng menguat 462.92 poin, atau 3.4%, menjadi 13,910.34 setelah diperdagangkan diantara 13,538.16 dan 13,952.98, level penutupan tertinggi sejak 12 Januari di 13,971.Turnover melonjak menjadi HK$ 63.88 miliar dari HK$ 55.31 miliar pada hari Senin. DBS Vickers mengatakan penguatan saham saat ini tidak akan berlangsung lama, karena mendapatkan resistance kuat di 14,000. Hold sell di 13,490 stop diatas 14,000 target 12,500/12,900,
R4 15133.33, R3 14673.33, R2 14213.33, R1 14012.67, PP 13753.33, S1 13552.67, S2 13293.33, S3 12833.33, S4 12373.33
Saham Jepang melanjutkan rally 2-pekan terakhir, berkat optimisme rencana Treasury AS untuk mengatasi aset bank yang bermasalah, akan membangkitkan pasar kredit global. Nikkei 225 average menguat 272.77, atau 3.3 persen, ditutup di 8,488.30 di Tokyo. Indeks telah menguat 20 persen sejak mencapai level terendah 26-tahun pada 10 Maret, menunjukkan potensi bull market. Indeks Topix menguat 21.16, atau 2.7 persen, menjadi 812.7, menguat untuk hari ke-7 untuk kenaikan terlama sejak 7 Januari. Pelemahan yen ke 98.56 terhadap dolar AS pada hari Selasa, ikut memberikan sentimen positif kepada Nikkei. Nikkei futures yang expired Juni menguat 2.7 persen menjadi 8,400 di Osaka, menguat 2.8 persen menjadi 8,405 di Singapura. Hold sell 8,190 target 7350/7500 stop diatas 8,500, sell again dibawah 50day MA.
R4 8743.33, R3 8623.33, R2 8503.33, R1 8426.67, PP 8383.33
S1 8306.67, S2 8263.33, S3 8143.33, S4 8023.33
Hang Seng
Melejitnya saham Wall Street mengikuti rencana pemerintah AS untuk melenyapkan aset bank yang bermasalah telah mengangkat indeks saham Hong Kong ke level tertinggi lebi dari 10 pekan pada hari Selasa, dipimpin oleh kenaikan HSBC. Trader mengatakan pasar lokal masih berkonsolidasi dalam waktu dekat setelah menguat 8.4% pada pekan ini. Hang Seng menguat 462.92 poin, atau 3.4%, menjadi 13,910.34 setelah diperdagangkan diantara 13,538.16 dan 13,952.98, level penutupan tertinggi sejak 12 Januari di 13,971.Turnover melonjak menjadi HK$ 63.88 miliar dari HK$ 55.31 miliar pada hari Senin. DBS Vickers mengatakan penguatan saham saat ini tidak akan berlangsung lama, karena mendapatkan resistance kuat di 14,000. Hold sell di 13,490 stop diatas 14,000 target 12,500/12,900,
R4 15133.33, R3 14673.33, R2 14213.33, R1 14012.67, PP 13753.33, S1 13552.67, S2 13293.33, S3 12833.33, S4 12373.33
Rupiah Melanjutkan Penguatan Terhadap Dolar AS, Berkat Capital Inflow
Mata uang rupiah menguat ke level terkuat dalam 7 pekan terakhir, berkat spekulasi rencana AS untuk mengatasi aset bank yang bermasalah akan membantu meredakan krisis kredit dan memicu permintaan untuk aset emerging market. Rupiah menguat 0.9 persen menjadi 11,470 per dolar di Jakarta. Sementara won Korea Selatan menguat 0.6 persen menjadi 1,383.50, setelah mencapai level tertinggi 6-pekan di 1,374.90. Ringgit menguat 0.4 persen menjadi 3.626, Bath Thailand melemah ke 35.35, peso Filipina diperdagangkan di 48.165, dolar Taiwan di NT$ 33.78.
Rupiah menguat untuk hari ke-4 karena investor asing membeli lebih banyak saham lokal dibandingkan yang mereka jual dalam 11 hari dari total 12 hari perdagangan. Mereka juga net buyer untuk saham di India, Korea Selatan, Taiwan, Thailand dan VIetnam. IHSG ditutup menguat 30 poin di 1,436. Sementara laporan Bank of America Corp pada hari Selasa, mengatakan rupiah mungkin melanjutkan penguatan bulanan terbaik dalam 1 tahun terakhir, terbantu oleh katalis positif pemulihan mata uang dan pasar obligasi lokal. BOA memprediksikan rupiah berada di 11,000 di akhir tahun 2009, dan memilih top pick saham : BMRI, BDMN, BBRI, INTP, ASII. Dolar Rupiah masih dapat melanjutkan penguatan ke target 200-day MA di 11,100, bilamana jika ditutup dibawah level tersebut dapat memutarbalikan trend bullish menjadi netral, target berikutnya 10,600.
Rupiah menguat untuk hari ke-4 karena investor asing membeli lebih banyak saham lokal dibandingkan yang mereka jual dalam 11 hari dari total 12 hari perdagangan. Mereka juga net buyer untuk saham di India, Korea Selatan, Taiwan, Thailand dan VIetnam. IHSG ditutup menguat 30 poin di 1,436. Sementara laporan Bank of America Corp pada hari Selasa, mengatakan rupiah mungkin melanjutkan penguatan bulanan terbaik dalam 1 tahun terakhir, terbantu oleh katalis positif pemulihan mata uang dan pasar obligasi lokal. BOA memprediksikan rupiah berada di 11,000 di akhir tahun 2009, dan memilih top pick saham : BMRI, BDMN, BBRI, INTP, ASII. Dolar Rupiah masih dapat melanjutkan penguatan ke target 200-day MA di 11,100, bilamana jika ditutup dibawah level tersebut dapat memutarbalikan trend bullish menjadi netral, target berikutnya 10,600.
Daily Forex - Kejutan Inflasi Inggris Kuatkan Pound Terhadap Dolar & Euro
Yen melemah ke level terendah 5 bulan terhadap euro karena rencana pemerintah AS untuk membantu mengatasi toxic asset memicu investor untuk memburu mata uang yang memiliki aset yang memiliki yield yang lebih tinggi. Dolar diperdagangkan di dekat level terendah 2 bulan setelah Treasury Secretary Geithner merilis proposal untuk membeli sebanyak $ 1 triliun aset bank yang bermasalah, meredam permintaan untuk keamanan dari mata uang yen dan dolar AS. Won, Aussie dan pound menguat untuk hari ke-3 terhadap yen dan dolar setelah saham global menguat berkat optimisme bencana finansial terburuk mungkin telah berakhir.
Yen melemah ke 133.60 per euro di sesi London, dari 132.17 di New York kemarin. Yen melemah ke 98.19 per dolar dari 96.95. Dolar menguat ke $ 1.3610 terhadap euro dari $ 1.3633 kemarin. Dolar melemah ke $ 1.4778 terhadap pound dari $ 1.4572. Indexks USD menguat 0.1 persen menjadi 83.496, atau melemah 5.1 persen di bulan ini. Indeks saham Nikkei 225 menguat 3.3 persen, kenaikan ke-6 hari dalam 7 hari perdagangan dan MSCI World Index menguat 0.8 persen. Yen juga melemah berkat kekhawatiran laporan perdagangan Jepang mungkin menunjukkan defisit perdagangan untuk bulan ke-5, diperkirakan teratat 20 miliar yen ($ 203 juta) di bulan Februari, dibandingkan rekor defisit 956.9 miliar yen di Januari. Sementara euro mungkin melemah setelah President ECB Trichet mengatakan suku bunga mungkin akan dipangkas lebih lanjut untuk mengatasi terpuruknya ekonomi global. Sementara pound mendapatkan keuntungan dari kejutan melonjaknya inflasi Inggris sebesar 3.2% dari perkiraan 2.6% di bulan Februari, dan meningkat 0.2% m/m.
Yen melemah ke 133.60 per euro di sesi London, dari 132.17 di New York kemarin. Yen melemah ke 98.19 per dolar dari 96.95. Dolar menguat ke $ 1.3610 terhadap euro dari $ 1.3633 kemarin. Dolar melemah ke $ 1.4778 terhadap pound dari $ 1.4572. Indexks USD menguat 0.1 persen menjadi 83.496, atau melemah 5.1 persen di bulan ini. Indeks saham Nikkei 225 menguat 3.3 persen, kenaikan ke-6 hari dalam 7 hari perdagangan dan MSCI World Index menguat 0.8 persen. Yen juga melemah berkat kekhawatiran laporan perdagangan Jepang mungkin menunjukkan defisit perdagangan untuk bulan ke-5, diperkirakan teratat 20 miliar yen ($ 203 juta) di bulan Februari, dibandingkan rekor defisit 956.9 miliar yen di Januari. Sementara euro mungkin melemah setelah President ECB Trichet mengatakan suku bunga mungkin akan dipangkas lebih lanjut untuk mengatasi terpuruknya ekonomi global. Sementara pound mendapatkan keuntungan dari kejutan melonjaknya inflasi Inggris sebesar 3.2% dari perkiraan 2.6% di bulan Februari, dan meningkat 0.2% m/m.
Gold expected to provide better return
The advice is based on the assumpฌtion that the economic slowdown will last at least 16 more months.The Trinity Securities Group, a derivatives broker in gold on the Thailand Futures Exchange (TFEX), said the precious metal this year would provide better returns than stock or capital markets.
"We'd like to warn investors that gold prices, despite its rising trend, won't increase speedily like it has since 2005. This year, gold prices will likeฌly be volatile, from $900 an ounce and with a 1012percent price moveฌment. The easiest way to maintain the investment cycle is with negative news, which raises the price. But once the negative news disappears, beware of any correction," Trinity said in a paper released yesterday.However, it said that over more than five years, gold as an investment would be more worth the risk than other investment tools. If the econoฌmy is expected to recover, investors should beware of goldprice volatiliฌty, but if it is expected to be much slowฌer than expected, gold prices will rise further.
Meanwhile, gold gained in Asia as a weaker US dollar fuelled demand for it as an alternative investment and store of value.Gold has risen 3.2 per cent in the past week, while the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against six major trading partners, slumped 4.2 per cent. The benchmark MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 3.2 per cent ahead of a US Treasury announceฌment yesterday of plans to rid banks of toxic assets.Gold for immediate delivery was at $952.96 an ounce early yesterday afternoon in Singapore after rising as much as 0.7 percent earlier, extendฌing last week's 2.4percent gain.The dollar last traded at 1.3664 to the euro, against $1.3582 last Friday.
Twentyone of 28 traders, investors and analysts surveyed from Tokyo to Chicago, Illinois advised buying gold this week as the dollar tumbles. Five said to sell, and two were neutral.Gold has "got the potential to test $980, $990 this week", Peter McGuire, managing director at Commodity Warrants Australia, said in a Bloomberg Television interview yesterday.Last year, demand for gold for jewฌellery, investment and manufacturฌing was 58 per cent, 30 per cent, and 12 per cent, respectively. The demand for investment in gold has risen sigฌnificantly, as those same ratios were 68 per cent, 19 per cent, and 13 per cent, respectively, from 2003-07.
Demand for gold for jewellery fell 11 per cent last year from 2007 but is expected to rise in the long run. India consumes the highest proportion of gold at 23 per cent of total demand each year, while China and the US each consume about 14 per cent, folฌlowed by Turkey at 5 per cent and Saudi Arabia at 3 per cent. Trinity said in general, demand for gold for jewฌellery rose when gold prices were staฌble or rising slowly but that demand for gold for investment rose signifiฌcantly when gold prices were highly volatile. World Gold Council data show demand for gold for investment rose 64.31 per cent from 664 tonnes in 2007 to 1,091 tonnes last year. Retailers' investment in gold almost doubled in that same period, rising 87.56 per cent from 410 tonnes to 769 tonnes. The rest was investment by exchangetraded funds, which rose about 27 per cent.
Trinity said demand for gold each year was always higher than new supฌply. The supply of gold from new gold mines represents only 63 per cent of demand, with the rest obtained from gold sales by central banks around the world (12 per cent) and melting down old or recycled gold (25 per cent). At present, the supply from about 400 gold mines worldwide is stable at 2,525 tonnes a year. Since 2007, gold held by all central banks has amounted to 29,000 tonnes, or 18 per cent of the gold supฌply. From 2003-07, central banks worldwide sell 500 tonnes a year.
"We'd like to warn investors that gold prices, despite its rising trend, won't increase speedily like it has since 2005. This year, gold prices will likeฌly be volatile, from $900 an ounce and with a 1012percent price moveฌment. The easiest way to maintain the investment cycle is with negative news, which raises the price. But once the negative news disappears, beware of any correction," Trinity said in a paper released yesterday.However, it said that over more than five years, gold as an investment would be more worth the risk than other investment tools. If the econoฌmy is expected to recover, investors should beware of goldprice volatiliฌty, but if it is expected to be much slowฌer than expected, gold prices will rise further.
Meanwhile, gold gained in Asia as a weaker US dollar fuelled demand for it as an alternative investment and store of value.Gold has risen 3.2 per cent in the past week, while the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against six major trading partners, slumped 4.2 per cent. The benchmark MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 3.2 per cent ahead of a US Treasury announceฌment yesterday of plans to rid banks of toxic assets.Gold for immediate delivery was at $952.96 an ounce early yesterday afternoon in Singapore after rising as much as 0.7 percent earlier, extendฌing last week's 2.4percent gain.The dollar last traded at 1.3664 to the euro, against $1.3582 last Friday.
Twentyone of 28 traders, investors and analysts surveyed from Tokyo to Chicago, Illinois advised buying gold this week as the dollar tumbles. Five said to sell, and two were neutral.Gold has "got the potential to test $980, $990 this week", Peter McGuire, managing director at Commodity Warrants Australia, said in a Bloomberg Television interview yesterday.Last year, demand for gold for jewฌellery, investment and manufacturฌing was 58 per cent, 30 per cent, and 12 per cent, respectively. The demand for investment in gold has risen sigฌnificantly, as those same ratios were 68 per cent, 19 per cent, and 13 per cent, respectively, from 2003-07.
Demand for gold for jewellery fell 11 per cent last year from 2007 but is expected to rise in the long run. India consumes the highest proportion of gold at 23 per cent of total demand each year, while China and the US each consume about 14 per cent, folฌlowed by Turkey at 5 per cent and Saudi Arabia at 3 per cent. Trinity said in general, demand for gold for jewฌellery rose when gold prices were staฌble or rising slowly but that demand for gold for investment rose signifiฌcantly when gold prices were highly volatile. World Gold Council data show demand for gold for investment rose 64.31 per cent from 664 tonnes in 2007 to 1,091 tonnes last year. Retailers' investment in gold almost doubled in that same period, rising 87.56 per cent from 410 tonnes to 769 tonnes. The rest was investment by exchangetraded funds, which rose about 27 per cent.
Trinity said demand for gold each year was always higher than new supฌply. The supply of gold from new gold mines represents only 63 per cent of demand, with the rest obtained from gold sales by central banks around the world (12 per cent) and melting down old or recycled gold (25 per cent). At present, the supply from about 400 gold mines worldwide is stable at 2,525 tonnes a year. Since 2007, gold held by all central banks has amounted to 29,000 tonnes, or 18 per cent of the gold supฌply. From 2003-07, central banks worldwide sell 500 tonnes a year.
Potensi Penguatan N225 & HSI Terbatas Jelang Tutup Buku
N225 Jepang
Saham Jepang melejit berkat spekulasi permintaan dari China akan meningkatkan pendapatan perusahaan perusahaan komoditi dan pemerintah Jepang akan merilis stimulus baru senilai $208 B untuk mencegah resesi berkepanjangan. Nikkei 225 Average menguat 265.57, atau 3.4%, menjadi 8,215.53, tertinggi sejak 29 Januari. Topix menguat 26.79, atau 3.5%, kenaikan untuk hari ke-7. Nikkei telah menguat 5% pada pekan lalu dan total 11% dalam 2 pekan. Nikkei futures expired Maret menguat 4.1% di 8180 di Osaka. Hold sell di 8190 low dan sell dibawah 50-day MA target 7,350 stop diatas 8500. MACD masih berada dlm teritory bearish, stochastic overbought.
Hang Seng
Saham Asia melejit berkat harapan dari rencana Treasury Geithner untuk membeli toxic asset sebesar $1 T, sementara China Mobile menguat tajam, mendorong indeks komposite Hang Seng ditutup menguat di level tertinggi lebih dari 1 bulan. Trader mengatakan arah perdagangan pasar lokal dalam waktu dekat akan tergantung reaksi investor terhadap rencana Geithner pada hari Senin. Hang Seng ditutup menguat 673,91 atau 4.7% menjadi 13,477.96. Futures Maret ditutup di 13,390. Turnover tercatat HK$ 55.31 B, naik dari HK$ 43.89 pada hari Jumat lalu. Data Existing Home Sales AS Februarì, secara mengejutkan meningkat 5.5% m/m. Strategi sell diatas 13,460 target 12,500 stop diatas 14k, karena MACD Negatif & stochastic overbought.
Saham Jepang melejit berkat spekulasi permintaan dari China akan meningkatkan pendapatan perusahaan perusahaan komoditi dan pemerintah Jepang akan merilis stimulus baru senilai $208 B untuk mencegah resesi berkepanjangan. Nikkei 225 Average menguat 265.57, atau 3.4%, menjadi 8,215.53, tertinggi sejak 29 Januari. Topix menguat 26.79, atau 3.5%, kenaikan untuk hari ke-7. Nikkei telah menguat 5% pada pekan lalu dan total 11% dalam 2 pekan. Nikkei futures expired Maret menguat 4.1% di 8180 di Osaka. Hold sell di 8190 low dan sell dibawah 50-day MA target 7,350 stop diatas 8500. MACD masih berada dlm teritory bearish, stochastic overbought.
Hang Seng
Saham Asia melejit berkat harapan dari rencana Treasury Geithner untuk membeli toxic asset sebesar $1 T, sementara China Mobile menguat tajam, mendorong indeks komposite Hang Seng ditutup menguat di level tertinggi lebih dari 1 bulan. Trader mengatakan arah perdagangan pasar lokal dalam waktu dekat akan tergantung reaksi investor terhadap rencana Geithner pada hari Senin. Hang Seng ditutup menguat 673,91 atau 4.7% menjadi 13,477.96. Futures Maret ditutup di 13,390. Turnover tercatat HK$ 55.31 B, naik dari HK$ 43.89 pada hari Jumat lalu. Data Existing Home Sales AS Februarì, secara mengejutkan meningkat 5.5% m/m. Strategi sell diatas 13,460 target 12,500 stop diatas 14k, karena MACD Negatif & stochastic overbought.
Kondisi Overbought Dapat Batasi Euphoria & Window Dressing
Faktor window dressing oleh fund manager, kuatnya sentimen dari sejumlah laporan keuangan dan melejitnya saham Regional (antisipasi program pembelian troubled asset $1 triliun oleh Treasury AS), angkat IHSG melampui level 1,400 pada hari Senin. Murahnya valuasi sejumlah saham unggulan, berita positif dari sejumlah emiten (PGAS-bentuk anak usaha di bidang engineering & konstruksi pipa gas, BUMI-bagi dividen 30%=Rp 117.8, TLKM-menang tender fasilitas telkom utk pemilu, BDMN-rencana right issue, ASII-penjualan motor +11% di Februari), kenaikan saham komoditi (harga minyak dan CPO) dan penguatan rupiah (11,525 per dolar) ikut memberikan katalis positif kepada IHSG.
Meski potensi kenaikan IHSG dalam beberapa hari mendatang akan dibatasi oleh kondisi teknikal yang overbought (target 1,410 pekan ini), berakhirnya euphoria paket stimulus AS dan rapuhnya sentimen investor menghadapi krisis tenaga kerja di dalam & luar negeri.
Secara teknikal: IHSG berada dalam kondisi overbought, dapat picu profit taking jika gagal menembus resistance pivot 1,422 dan jika gagal ditutup harian diatas 1,408 (100 day MA), potensi terkoreksi ke support 1,391/1,383/1,360 dalam 1-3 hari mendatang. Untuk menetralkan trend bearish med-term, IHSG harus ditutup diatas 1,464.47 untuk target 1,690 (200-day MA).
Harga minyak $53.57 +1,59, emas $950 -2.6, timah $10300 +40, nikel 9,900 -125.
BMRI: (MACD +, Stoch overbought, marobozu candle) 2050-2100 (buy)/2250 (sell/buy jika tembus dgn volume up)/2400 (sell/buy jika tembus dgn volume up). Resiko di bawah 1,950 maksimal 1,800.
AALI: (MACD & Stochastic bearish divergence, 13k upper Bollinger). 13150 (sell/buy jika tembus dgn volume up)/13450 (sell/buy jika tembus dgn volume up)/13,850 (sell/buy jika tembus dgn volume up). Resiko di 12750/12550 (buy).
PGAS: (Inverse H&S breakout, MACD +) 2250 (sell/buy jika tembus dgn volume up)/2375 (sell/buy jika tembus dgn volume up). Resiko di 2025/1950/1875.
PTBA: (MACD +, breakout pennant) 7000/7150 (sell/buy jika tembus dgn volume up) target 7350. Resiko 6800/6550 (buy). ISAT: (Stoch bullish, MACD -) 4600 (sell/buy jika tembus dgn volume up)/4725/4875 (sell/buy jika tembus dgn volume up). Resiko di 4400/4275 (buy).
Meski potensi kenaikan IHSG dalam beberapa hari mendatang akan dibatasi oleh kondisi teknikal yang overbought (target 1,410 pekan ini), berakhirnya euphoria paket stimulus AS dan rapuhnya sentimen investor menghadapi krisis tenaga kerja di dalam & luar negeri.
Secara teknikal: IHSG berada dalam kondisi overbought, dapat picu profit taking jika gagal menembus resistance pivot 1,422 dan jika gagal ditutup harian diatas 1,408 (100 day MA), potensi terkoreksi ke support 1,391/1,383/1,360 dalam 1-3 hari mendatang. Untuk menetralkan trend bearish med-term, IHSG harus ditutup diatas 1,464.47 untuk target 1,690 (200-day MA).
Harga minyak $53.57 +1,59, emas $950 -2.6, timah $10300 +40, nikel 9,900 -125.
BMRI: (MACD +, Stoch overbought, marobozu candle) 2050-2100 (buy)/2250 (sell/buy jika tembus dgn volume up)/2400 (sell/buy jika tembus dgn volume up). Resiko di bawah 1,950 maksimal 1,800.
AALI: (MACD & Stochastic bearish divergence, 13k upper Bollinger). 13150 (sell/buy jika tembus dgn volume up)/13450 (sell/buy jika tembus dgn volume up)/13,850 (sell/buy jika tembus dgn volume up). Resiko di 12750/12550 (buy).
PGAS: (Inverse H&S breakout, MACD +) 2250 (sell/buy jika tembus dgn volume up)/2375 (sell/buy jika tembus dgn volume up). Resiko di 2025/1950/1875.
PTBA: (MACD +, breakout pennant) 7000/7150 (sell/buy jika tembus dgn volume up) target 7350. Resiko 6800/6550 (buy). ISAT: (Stoch bullish, MACD -) 4600 (sell/buy jika tembus dgn volume up)/4725/4875 (sell/buy jika tembus dgn volume up). Resiko di 4400/4275 (buy).
Monday, March 23, 2009
Rupiah Today: Meningkatnya Sentimen Investor Kuatkan Rupiah
Rupiah menguat tajam terhadap dolar, diperdagangkan di dekat level terkuat lebih dari 2 bulan, berkat spekulasi keuntungan yield terhadap surat hutang AS yang menarik investor asing. Rupiah juga menguat berkat penurunan yield Treasury AS yang menyebabkan kesenjangan terhadap yield RI menjadi sebesar 9.7%.
Rupiah ditutup menguat di 11,550 per dolar pada penutupan pasar Jakarta hari Senin. Sementara kontrak non deliverable forward 1 bulan menguat 0.8% menjadi 11,865 per dolar. Penguatan tajam BEI sebesar 45 poin menjadi 1,406 pada hari Senin, ikut berperan aksi profit taking posisi long dolar rupiah. Secara teknikal penutupan dolar dibawah 11,400 (100-day MA) dapat mengarah ke target 10,950/10,600.
Rupiah ditutup menguat di 11,550 per dolar pada penutupan pasar Jakarta hari Senin. Sementara kontrak non deliverable forward 1 bulan menguat 0.8% menjadi 11,865 per dolar. Penguatan tajam BEI sebesar 45 poin menjadi 1,406 pada hari Senin, ikut berperan aksi profit taking posisi long dolar rupiah. Secara teknikal penutupan dolar dibawah 11,400 (100-day MA) dapat mengarah ke target 10,950/10,600.
Daily Technical Analysis Forex + DJIA
Euro: menunjukkan extend bullish dan inverse head & soldier untuk target 1.39 jika msh ditutup harian (2 hari berturut2) di atas 1.3410 support. Kendati kondisi indikator stochastic overbought, Adx menunjukkan pelemahan. Resistance kuat di 1.370 jika break target 1.3908, support di 1.3566/1.3467.
JPY: Rejection dari high 99.68 dari kondisi overbought dalam trend short-term yang netral. Resistance kuat di 97.33 jika break target 98.10/98.54, support di 95.39/94.61. Potensi Tembusnya 99.68 tetap terbuka target 104 di April-Mei.
GBP: Kondisi overbought di stochastic daily & ADX mengalami pelemahan, menunjukkan potensi kenaikan akan terbatas, terutama jika level resistance kuat 1.4680 jika tembus target 1.4800/1.4970. Tetapi jika GBP gagal ditutup harian diatas 1.4421 tgt 1.4300/1.4175.
DJI: indikator MACD masih konstruktif bullish, meski stochastic terkoreksi tetapi ADX masih terlihat lemah menunjukkan penurunan 2 sesi kemarin lemah, potensi rebound ke 7,470 bahkan 7,700/8k (peluang sell on rally target 6,700). Jika hari ini ditutup dibawah 7,205 target 6,700.
JPY: Rejection dari high 99.68 dari kondisi overbought dalam trend short-term yang netral. Resistance kuat di 97.33 jika break target 98.10/98.54, support di 95.39/94.61. Potensi Tembusnya 99.68 tetap terbuka target 104 di April-Mei.
GBP: Kondisi overbought di stochastic daily & ADX mengalami pelemahan, menunjukkan potensi kenaikan akan terbatas, terutama jika level resistance kuat 1.4680 jika tembus target 1.4800/1.4970. Tetapi jika GBP gagal ditutup harian diatas 1.4421 tgt 1.4300/1.4175.
DJI: indikator MACD masih konstruktif bullish, meski stochastic terkoreksi tetapi ADX masih terlihat lemah menunjukkan penurunan 2 sesi kemarin lemah, potensi rebound ke 7,470 bahkan 7,700/8k (peluang sell on rally target 6,700). Jika hari ini ditutup dibawah 7,205 target 6,700.
Forex Today: Euro & Pound Menguat Berkat Trichet & Obama
Yen melemah ke level terendah 5 bulan terhadap euro, dolar melemah terhadap euro dan pound berkat spekulasi langkah tambahan pemerintah AS untuk mengatasi aset bermasalah yang mendorong investor memburu mata uang yang memiliki yield yg lebih tinggi. Dolar mengalami pekan terburuk sejak Plaza D'accord tahun 1985, sebelum Treasury Geithner mengumumkan detail dana talangan $700 b ke sistem finansial. Yen melemah ke 96.21 per dolar, euro menguat ke $1.3712, AUD menguat ke $69.87, pound menguat ke 1.4571, indeks USD melemah ke 83.05.
Presiden Obama akan umumkan perubahan regulasi senilai $1 triliun untuk cegah terulangnya krisis finansial. Treasury Geithner dan Fed Bernanke akan testimony di hadapan HFSC besok mengenai penyelamatan AIG. Nikkei 225 menguat 3.4% dan MSCI Asia-Pasific menguat 4%. Yen melemah terhadap majors setelah survey manufaktur Jepang anjlok ke -66 di Q1 dari -44.5 di bulan lalu. Euro menguat berkat komentar ECB Trichet yang meredam suku bunga nol persen di Euro. JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley dan Citigroup menyarankan pembelian euro.
Presiden Obama akan umumkan perubahan regulasi senilai $1 triliun untuk cegah terulangnya krisis finansial. Treasury Geithner dan Fed Bernanke akan testimony di hadapan HFSC besok mengenai penyelamatan AIG. Nikkei 225 menguat 3.4% dan MSCI Asia-Pasific menguat 4%. Yen melemah terhadap majors setelah survey manufaktur Jepang anjlok ke -66 di Q1 dari -44.5 di bulan lalu. Euro menguat berkat komentar ECB Trichet yang meredam suku bunga nol persen di Euro. JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley dan Citigroup menyarankan pembelian euro.
Fokus Pekan Ini: Part 2
Sementara untuk dolar AS diperkirakan masih akan mengalami tekanan terhadap mata uang utama dunia, terutama euro (resistance di 1.39), yen (support di $92.60), pound (resistance di 1.4970), yang terlihat dari faktor membengkaknya neraca keuangan the Fed menjadi $ 1.5 triliun dan faktor teknikal yang menunjukkan wave 5 telah selesai dan berpotensi terkoreksi ke 77/82 (indeks USD), sebelum rebound ke target 92 di Q2, karena potensi penurunan suku bunga di Eropa, diikuti peluang ECB akan melakukan aksi pembelian obligasi seperti the Fed, BOE dan BOJ dapat melemahkan euro terhadap dolar lebh lanjut di bulan April hingga Juni, diikuti spekulasi pertumbuhan ekonomi Eropa dan Jepang jauh lebih buruk dari ekonomi AS (ditopang agresifnya program penyelamatan ekonomi). Rupiah diperkirakan hanya mendapatkan keuntungan terbatas (dominan profit taking) pada pekan ini terhadap dolar AS. Sikap wait & see investor menjelang pemilu 9 April, data inflasi (potensi kenaikan inflasi bulan Maret) dan BI Rate (-25bsp di awal April). Perkiraan range pekan ini 11,600-12,100.
Potensi kenaikan harga komoditi terutama minyak & emas terbatas pada pekan ini, berpotensi terkoreksi di April-Mei, berkat belum berakhirnya krisis ekonomi dan finansial global (the next crash is Europe???) dapat meredam permintaan untuk minyak selama tidak capai $55/60 dalam 1-4 pekan target $ 30/$25, pekan ini diperkirakan $45-55. Emas masih berada dalam range $900-1k pada pekan ini, berpotensi menguat ke $ 1,200 di Q2 bahkan $1,500 di H2 berkat quantitative easing oleh THE FED, BOJ, BOE yang akan diikuti ECB di bulan April.
Indeks saham DJIA gagal ditutup diatas 7500 pada pekan lalu, memberikan pandangan negatif kepada DJIA pada pekan ini, diikuti indikator teknikal stochastic daily overbought, seharusnya dukung potensi penurunan ke 6,700/6,900 (opportunity buy) dalam 1-2 pekan untuk target 7,7k-8k di bulan April-Mei.
Potensi kenaikan harga komoditi terutama minyak & emas terbatas pada pekan ini, berpotensi terkoreksi di April-Mei, berkat belum berakhirnya krisis ekonomi dan finansial global (the next crash is Europe???) dapat meredam permintaan untuk minyak selama tidak capai $55/60 dalam 1-4 pekan target $ 30/$25, pekan ini diperkirakan $45-55. Emas masih berada dalam range $900-1k pada pekan ini, berpotensi menguat ke $ 1,200 di Q2 bahkan $1,500 di H2 berkat quantitative easing oleh THE FED, BOJ, BOE yang akan diikuti ECB di bulan April.
Indeks saham DJIA gagal ditutup diatas 7500 pada pekan lalu, memberikan pandangan negatif kepada DJIA pada pekan ini, diikuti indikator teknikal stochastic daily overbought, seharusnya dukung potensi penurunan ke 6,700/6,900 (opportunity buy) dalam 1-2 pekan untuk target 7,7k-8k di bulan April-Mei.
Sunday, March 22, 2009
Fokus Pekan Ini: Testimony Treasury Geithner Dapat Memicu Risk Aversion
Pasar mencari petunjuk lebih lanjut untuk melanjutkan penguatan pada pekan ini dari testimony Menteri Keuangan Geithner, Program baru Presiden Obama untuk mengatasi kredit bermsalah di bank-bank AS, dan sejumlah laporan perumahan AS.Pasar saham akan mulai diperdagangkan pada pekan ini dengan gelombang optimisme setelah Federal Reserve mengambil langkah yang luar biasa untuk menurunkan biaya pinjaman, membantu pasar Wall Street mencatat kenaikan selama 2 pekan berturut-turut terbaik di tahun ini. Tetapi dengan 2 sesi perdagangan terakhir ditutup melemah dan data mendatang dari pasar perumahan, sebagaimana penampilan Treasury Secretary Geithner, Fed Bernanke dan Presiden Obama pada pekan ini, dimana dapat membatasi potensi penguatan Wall Street.
Laporan Existing Home Sales bulan Februari akan dirilis hari Senin, diikuti New Home Sales pada hari Rabu. Pasar akan fokus kepada testimony Geithner di hadapan Kongress, mengenai kontroversi pertama mengenai AMerican International Group (AIG) pada hari Selasa dan mengenai regulasi bank pada hari Kamis.Banyak kalangan berharap beliau akan bekerja sama dengan rencana Treasury untuk mengatasi kredit bermasalah.Pada pekan lalu, the Fed telah meraih kredibilitas di Wall Street dengan mengumumkan kejutan pembelian $ 300 miliar obligasi Treasury pada hari Rabu, sebagaimana melanjutkan pembelian surat berharga mortgage dan surat hutang agensi.Pasar oligasi melejit berkat laporan tersebut, mendorong yield Treasury mengalami penurunan harian terbesar sejak pasar saham crash di tahun 1987. DOlar melemah tajam terhadap majors, membantu penguatan harga komoditi termasuk emas dan minyak. Selama bulan Maret indeks S&P 500 telah menguat 4.6%.
Selain laporan perumahan pada pekan ini, pada hari Rabu akan dirilis Durable Goods, termasuk diantaranya ukuran business spending. Pada hari Kamis laporan GDP Q4 Final dan consumer confidence Michigan dan Personal Income pada hari Jumat.Saham finansial tertolong oleh, komentar optimis dari Citigroup, Bank of America dan JP Morgan, dimana pandangan membaik setelah mendapatkan bantuan dari dana pemerintah.
Laporan Existing Home Sales bulan Februari akan dirilis hari Senin, diikuti New Home Sales pada hari Rabu. Pasar akan fokus kepada testimony Geithner di hadapan Kongress, mengenai kontroversi pertama mengenai AMerican International Group (AIG) pada hari Selasa dan mengenai regulasi bank pada hari Kamis.Banyak kalangan berharap beliau akan bekerja sama dengan rencana Treasury untuk mengatasi kredit bermasalah.Pada pekan lalu, the Fed telah meraih kredibilitas di Wall Street dengan mengumumkan kejutan pembelian $ 300 miliar obligasi Treasury pada hari Rabu, sebagaimana melanjutkan pembelian surat berharga mortgage dan surat hutang agensi.Pasar oligasi melejit berkat laporan tersebut, mendorong yield Treasury mengalami penurunan harian terbesar sejak pasar saham crash di tahun 1987. DOlar melemah tajam terhadap majors, membantu penguatan harga komoditi termasuk emas dan minyak. Selama bulan Maret indeks S&P 500 telah menguat 4.6%.
Selain laporan perumahan pada pekan ini, pada hari Rabu akan dirilis Durable Goods, termasuk diantaranya ukuran business spending. Pada hari Kamis laporan GDP Q4 Final dan consumer confidence Michigan dan Personal Income pada hari Jumat.Saham finansial tertolong oleh, komentar optimis dari Citigroup, Bank of America dan JP Morgan, dimana pandangan membaik setelah mendapatkan bantuan dari dana pemerintah.
IHSG : Capital Inflow & Technical Breakout Dukung Potensi Kenaikan
ISH masih mendapatkan keuntungan dari capital inflow yang menyebabkan pasar aset lokal menguat disertai penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar (Rp 11,833 pada hari Jumat), menjelang pemilu 9 April mendatang dan penurunan suku bunga BI 25bsp pada awal bulan April menjadi 7.50%, menyebabkan sejumlah saham yang memiliki hutang dalam bentuk USD mengalami penguatan, disamping penguatan harga komoditi (minyak $ 51.90, emas $ 956) serta positifnya pasar saham regional di tengah meredanya kekhawatiran terhadap krisis finansial global (JP Morgan, Citigroup, BOA, Standard Chartered dan Barclays menunjukkan laporan keuangan yang positif)yang menyebabkan kenaikan Wall Street pada pekan lalu (+2.5%). Presiden Obama akan merilis detail program baru untuk mengatasi lredit bermasalah di bank-bank AS, dimana dapat memberikan sentimen positif kepada IHSG dan regional pada hari Senin ini.
Secara teknikal IHSG seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan lebih lanjut setelah, trendline di 1,358 telah ditembus dan closing diatas tersebut. Kondisi MACD telah berada di atas teritorial positif, stochastic bullish, pola rising wedge resistance line juga telah ditembus di 1,356. Kendati laju kenaikan akan tertahan oleh pola candle Three White Soldier, volume yang divergence dengan harga dalam 2 sesi terakhir, seharusnya menahan laju kenaikan IHSG diatas 1,410 (100-day MA). Perkiraan range pekan ini (1,310/1,410).
Collect saham BUMI (bullish harami) 720/750 target 850, ASII (bearish harami) 12,500/13,000/13,450 target 15,500/15,800 (breakaway gap), TLKM (white marobuzu) 6,800/6,900 target 7450 (double top), BBRI (evening star, stochastic overbought) 4,100/4,200 target 5100, ANTM (rounding bottom; stochastic crossing up from oversold)1100/1070 target 1300.
IHSG:
R4 1413.35
R3 1390.19
R2 1374.18
R1 1362.60
PP 1355.45
S1 1351.02
S1 1346.59
S2 1339.44
S3 1320.71
S4 1297.55
Secara teknikal IHSG seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan lebih lanjut setelah, trendline di 1,358 telah ditembus dan closing diatas tersebut. Kondisi MACD telah berada di atas teritorial positif, stochastic bullish, pola rising wedge resistance line juga telah ditembus di 1,356. Kendati laju kenaikan akan tertahan oleh pola candle Three White Soldier, volume yang divergence dengan harga dalam 2 sesi terakhir, seharusnya menahan laju kenaikan IHSG diatas 1,410 (100-day MA). Perkiraan range pekan ini (1,310/1,410).
Collect saham BUMI (bullish harami) 720/750 target 850, ASII (bearish harami) 12,500/13,000/13,450 target 15,500/15,800 (breakaway gap), TLKM (white marobuzu) 6,800/6,900 target 7450 (double top), BBRI (evening star, stochastic overbought) 4,100/4,200 target 5100, ANTM (rounding bottom; stochastic crossing up from oversold)1100/1070 target 1300.
IHSG:
R4 1413.35
R3 1390.19
R2 1374.18
R1 1362.60
PP 1355.45
S1 1351.02
S1 1346.59
S2 1339.44
S3 1320.71
S4 1297.55
Asian Stocks Post Biggest Weekly Gain Since 2007 on Fed Plans
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 6.4 percent to 79.53 this week, adding to last week’s 3.9 percent advance. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 5 percent in a holiday-shortened week. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 2.5 percent. South Korea’s Kospi Index jumped 4 percent. Standard Chartered Plc, the U.K.’s second-largest bank by market value, gained 11 percent in Hong Kong after saying it does not need to raise capital. China Huiyuan Juice Group Ltd. plunged 58 percent in Hong Kong after Chinese regulators blocked Coca-Cola Co.’s $2.3 billion takeover bid. Casio Computer Co., the maker of G-Shock watches and Exilim cameras, tumbled 17 percent in Tokyo as it forecast its first loss in seven years.
Trend Bullish short-term, neutral med-term, bearish long term. Sell on rally above 7,970/8,050 target 7,350.
R4 7973.33
R3 7933.33
R2 7905.00
R1 7885.00
PP 7873.33
S1 7865.00
S2 7833.33
S3 7793.33
S4 7773.33
(Dow Jones)--China Mobile extended losses on a worsening earnings outlook while Chinese financial stocks tracked declines in their U.S. counterparts overnight, pushing Hong Kong stocks lower Friday. Traders said the Hang Seng Index may fall further in the near term, possibly toward 11,000 points, on concerns about deteriorating economic and corporate fundamentals. The blue-chip Hang Seng Index fell 297.41 points, or 2.3%, to 12,833.51, after hitting an intraday low of 12,797.10. Turnover totaled HK$43.89 billion, down from HK$48.59 billion Thursday. 'We think it is about time to trim shareholdings. We expect selling pressure will increase,' said ICEA Securities strategist Ernie Hon. Alex Wong of Ample Financial Group said hopes of more favorable government policies from Beijing have waned, and the near-term retreat of Chinese stocks will be a major force pulling back the Hang Seng Index. China Mobile fell 5.4% to HK$63.10, after a decline of 2.1% Thursday. It said Thursday its 2008 net profit rose to CNY112.80 billion from CNY87.10 billion in 2007, but profit growth slowed toward the end of the year amid intense competition and the weakening economy. Marvin Lo, an analyst at Daiwa Institute of Research, said he expects China Mobile's net profit growth to slow to 8.4% this year, from 29.6% last year, on a drop in subscriber growth and higher capital expenditure related to third-generation mobile services. 'A slower economy, greater competition and the inflow of new customers from rural areas are likely to put downward pressure on net subscriber additions,' Lo said. Bank of America Merrill Lynch downgraded China Mobile to neutral from buy and cut the target price on the stock by 15% to HK$73.00. It said China Mobile's earnings growth is decelerating, in part because depreciation expenses will rise as the company spends more to expand its network. Chinese financial stocks tumbled, tracking a 16% drop in Citigroup's shares overnight, as the U.S. banking giant prepared to issue preferred shares and sought approval for a reverse stock split, traders said.
R4 13920.17
R3 13519.17
R2 13209.00
R1 13008.50
PP 12917.67
S1 12808.00
S2 12607.50
S3 12316.17
S4 12115.67
Trend Bullish short-term, neutral med-term, bearish long term. Sell on rally above 7,970/8,050 target 7,350.
R4 7973.33
R3 7933.33
R2 7905.00
R1 7885.00
PP 7873.33
S1 7865.00
S2 7833.33
S3 7793.33
S4 7773.33
(Dow Jones)--China Mobile extended losses on a worsening earnings outlook while Chinese financial stocks tracked declines in their U.S. counterparts overnight, pushing Hong Kong stocks lower Friday. Traders said the Hang Seng Index may fall further in the near term, possibly toward 11,000 points, on concerns about deteriorating economic and corporate fundamentals. The blue-chip Hang Seng Index fell 297.41 points, or 2.3%, to 12,833.51, after hitting an intraday low of 12,797.10. Turnover totaled HK$43.89 billion, down from HK$48.59 billion Thursday. 'We think it is about time to trim shareholdings. We expect selling pressure will increase,' said ICEA Securities strategist Ernie Hon. Alex Wong of Ample Financial Group said hopes of more favorable government policies from Beijing have waned, and the near-term retreat of Chinese stocks will be a major force pulling back the Hang Seng Index. China Mobile fell 5.4% to HK$63.10, after a decline of 2.1% Thursday. It said Thursday its 2008 net profit rose to CNY112.80 billion from CNY87.10 billion in 2007, but profit growth slowed toward the end of the year amid intense competition and the weakening economy. Marvin Lo, an analyst at Daiwa Institute of Research, said he expects China Mobile's net profit growth to slow to 8.4% this year, from 29.6% last year, on a drop in subscriber growth and higher capital expenditure related to third-generation mobile services. 'A slower economy, greater competition and the inflow of new customers from rural areas are likely to put downward pressure on net subscriber additions,' Lo said. Bank of America Merrill Lynch downgraded China Mobile to neutral from buy and cut the target price on the stock by 15% to HK$73.00. It said China Mobile's earnings growth is decelerating, in part because depreciation expenses will rise as the company spends more to expand its network. Chinese financial stocks tumbled, tracking a 16% drop in Citigroup's shares overnight, as the U.S. banking giant prepared to issue preferred shares and sought approval for a reverse stock split, traders said.
R4 13920.17
R3 13519.17
R2 13209.00
R1 13008.50
PP 12917.67
S1 12808.00
S2 12607.50
S3 12316.17
S4 12115.67
Trading the Stocks Bear Market Wave 4 Rally
SCREW YOU MADOFF - Forget 12% a YEAR … How much is 30% per MONTH worth to you? - Casting aside 46% in open profits on our primary core positions with assurance contingency securing of a minimum 2009 return on the S&P 500 of 25%, what if we told you that on top of this, our Level-Three ancillary trading operations just booked another 30% return in the 9-February 13-March timeframe? Sounds too good to be true doesn't it.
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Gold Buying Opportunity Of A Lifetime
Opportunity and crisis are uneasy handmaidens in times of danger; and, while crises may increase, opportunities are always rare. The world is in the grip of an unprecedented crisis. Unlimited credit has now turned into its deadly nemesis, unlimited defaulting debt; and whereas only some of us were its beneficiaries, all of us will be its victims—all of us, except the very few.
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Morgan Stanley - Global Are Still Sinking and Synching
Salami economics? Economists are often accused of using ‘salami tactics’ in revising their forecasts: adjust them frequently and in wafer-thin slices. Well, it’s different this time. While forecasts of economic growth around the globe have in fact been cut frequently over the last 3-6 months, the changes have been anything but wafer-thin. The Morgan Stanley economics team is no exception – during 4Q08 and 1Q09 we have been forced to cut our growth forecasts several times, and in big chunks. We thus remain more bearish than the consensus, seeing a record-deep recession and only tepid recovery in 2010.
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