Nikkei 225 Slips on Dollar Drop; HK Shares End Up

(Bloomberg) -- Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell for the first time in a week as a dollar sell-off sparked by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s pledge to buy $1 trillion in bonds overshadowed optimism the action will revive credit markets. Honda Motor Co., which gets more than half its sales in North America, lost 3 percent as the weaker dollar diminished overseas income. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. added 5.4 percent on speculation central bank operations will boost lending. J Front Retailing Co. plunged 9 percent after nationwide department store sales fell the most since 1998 and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lowered its shares to “sell.” The Nikkei 225 Stock Average lost 26.21, or 0.3 percent, to 7,945.96 at the close of trading in Tokyo, reversing a 0.8 percent advance. The broader Topix index was little changed at 764.77, with 21 of its 33 industry groups advancing. The Nikkei climbed 5 percent this week, while the Topix jumped 5.6 percent, its best performance in 2009. Japan’s markets will be closed tomorrow for a holiday.














(Dow Jones)--Gains in property companies sent Hong Kong shares slightly higher Thursday, but profit-taking in HSBC after several days of gains and a decline in China Mobile on an uninspiring earnings result kept a lid on the gains. Huiyuan Juice plunged as much as 53% after it resumed trading following Beijing's rejection of Coca-Cola's US$2.4 billion bid for the juice maker. The firm closed down 42% at HK$4.80. The blue-chip Hang Seng Index rose 13.75 points, or 0.10%, to 13,130.92 after trading between 12,947.90 and 13,205.17 during the session. Turnover totaled HK$48.59 billion, up from HK$37.5 billion Wednesday. Traders said they expect the index to hover around the 13,000 level after it rose in seven out of the past eight sessions. But index heavyweight China Mobile capped the index's gains, falling 2.1% to HK$66.70 after posting a slightly weaker-than-expected 2008 result. The world's biggest mobile operator by subscribers posted a 30% rise in net profit to CNY112.80 billion, slightly lower than the average CNY115.07 billion forecast of nine analysts polled earlier by Dow Jones Newswires.

Daily Commodities Market Recap and Technical Analysis

Gold rebounded sharply as the Fed’s decision to purchase long-dated government debt and expand its balance sheet raised inflation fear, increasing gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge. Spot prices closed at USD939.90/941.40, up over USD20 from the previous day. Gold price surged to as high as 954 after the Fed's pledge as the dollar weakened. However, the benchmark futures met selling pressure afterward and settled at 889.1. Currently rebounded to 932.7, investors find buying the precious metal below $900/oz a bargain but any strong rally in the near term will likely be tempered by strength in the stock markets.

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DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD,EURO,GBP,JPY,DJI

Cable is still trading on the downside as wave ii has not been completed. Yesterday, we mentioned that the turning point may happen at 50% or 61.8% of wave i. The current prices bounced from 50%, but it may not be done yet because there is a double zig-zag formation developing. Double zig-zags are usually larger than a simple zig-zags so a push down to 61.8% or even 76.4% which is not shown here may happen especially as wave b and c of the second zig-zag develops.

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Gbp/Usd: Big Picture Elliott Wave

Forex Today : Aksi Quantitative Easing The Fed Picu Sell-Off Dolar AS

Dolar AS terpuruk terhadap mata uang utama dunia setelah the Fed membuat kejutan dengan mengumumkan akan membeli obligasi Treasury AS untuk membangkitkan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Dalam pernyataan yang dirilis semalam di akhir pertemuan selama dua hari, the Fed mempertahankan suku bunga 0-0.25% seperti perkiraan. Bagaimanapun, The Fed mengejutkan pasar dengan mengatakan mereka akan membeli lebih dari $ 300 miliar obligasi jangka panjang AS dalam 6 bulan mendatang dan melanjutkan pembelian surat hutang yang berhubungan dengan mortgage sebesar $ 850 miliar menjadi $ 1.45 triliun untuk meredakan kondisi pasar kredit.

Mata uang Asia dipimpin won Korea Selatan dan dolar Taiwan menguat terhadap dolar, berkat spekulasi pembelian bond pemerintah AS $ 1 triliun oleh the Fed dan meningkatkan permintaan untuk asset Negara berkembang. Rupiah menguat 0.5 persen menjadi 11,915 per dolar dan Bath Thailand menguat ke 35.68, peso menguat ke 48.29, yuan China menguat ke 6.8313, won menguat ke 1.396.70, dolar Taiwan ke NT$ 33.820.

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Technical Analysis Daily Forex + Gold

By Mudjo Ahmad (My Strategist Partner)

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The Real Ponzi Scheme– Unreal Interest Rates

Recently, former chairman of the Federal Reserve – Alan Greenspan – penned an editorial, “ The Fed Didn't Cause the Housing Bubble ”. It was published in The Wall Street Journal March 11, 2009 . In the article Mr. Greenspan attempts to blame today's global financial crisis on “too-low mortgage rates” between 2002 and 2005 which led to a real estate bubble.

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Investing 2009: Brace for Spring Meltdown, Unpredictable Summer and Ferocious Fall

Last October, while the shock waves of the largest bankruptcy filing in U.S. history still reverberated around the world, Trader Tracks Editor Roger Wiegand shared some thoughts with The Gold Report. In what has turned out to be an eerie understatement, he told us, “The American public herd is moving beyond being just nervous. Now they are getting scared. There is real fear in the air with inflation, massive job cuts and a drumbeat of bad news.” Not quite six months later—when many of his peers say the worst is behind us after all, the Dow regained 11% in roughly three days last week—Roger is among those waiting for the other proverbial shoe(s) to drop.

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Main Street vs. Wall Street: And the Winner Is…

The political marketers were out in full force on this one. They did everything from the visit of Bernanke's childhood home (which is now in foreclosure) to the close up of “Main Street” sign to the conversation on the street side bench in rural South Carolina. It was the perfect image of “I'm like you” kind of PR the government decision-makers are looking for right now.

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US Treasury Bonds As Competitor Safe Haven For Gold

Dogs and cats are mortal enemies in the animal world. In the insect world, ants and termites are mortal enemies. In the financial world, gold and USTreasury Bonds are mortal enemies. They compete for the revered role of safe haven for funds. In today's day and age, with numerous storms, some unprecedented, safe haven is especially valuable. One of the most important jobs for the US Federal Reserve, JPMorgan (its agent), and the US Congress is to create the impression that USTreasurys are indeed not only safe, but beyond reproach and free from any hint of default potential. In recent months, with a failure of many important US-based financial engines, and sharp economic decline, made more complex by mammoth commitments from the USGovt on rescues and stimulus, the pristine image of USTreasurys has suffered from severe tarnish.

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Bernanke Fights Debt Deflation By Printing Money

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that the economy continues to contract. Job losses, declining equity and housing wealth, and tight credit conditions have weighed on consumer sentiment and spending. Weaker sales prospects and difficulties in obtaining credit have led businesses to cut back on inventories and fixed investment. U.S. exports have slumped as a number of major trading partners have also fallen into recession. Although the near-term economic outlook is weak, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, together with fiscal and monetary stimulus, will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth.

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Japan Stocks Advance on BOJ Bond Purchases; HK Shares End Up On HSBC

(Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks rose for a fourth day, the longest streak in two months, on optimism central bank measures will ease credit markets and avert a deeper recession.Resona Holdings Inc., the nation’s No. 4 listed bank, jumped 5.4 percent after the Bank of Japan said it will increase government debt purchases from banks to spur lending. Tokio Marine Holdings Inc., the country’s largest property insurer, soared 10 percent. Nintendo Co., maker of the Wii game machine, sank 4.7 percent in Osaka as Deutsche Bank AG said the company’s profit will decline from next fiscal year.The Nikkei 225 Stock Average gained 23.04, or 0.3 percent, to close at 7,972.17 in Tokyo. The Topix index rose 4.03, or 0.5 percent, to 764.67. Both gauges climbed a fourth-straight day, the longest streak since a seven-day run ending Jan. 07. The Bank of Japan today said it will buy 1.8 trillion yen ($18.3 billion) of government bonds each month, up from 1.4 trillion yen now to add money to the financial system. The central bank yesterday outlined plans to provide as much as 1 trillion yen of subordinated loans to banks to revive lending and replenish capital sapped by falling stocks.

(Dow Jones)--Gains on Wall Street overnight and continued strength in banking giant HSBC powered Hong Kong shares higher Wednesday, but utility companies fell as investors favored more speculative trading. China Huiyuan Juice tumbled 19% to HK$8.30, off an intraday low of HK$7.95 before it was halted from trading after the Financial Times reported Coca-Cola may abandon its $2.4 billion takeover of the mainland beverage maker. China's Ministry of Commerce said later Wednesday it had rejected Coca-Cola's proposal to acquire the juice maker, saying the deal would restrict competition. The blue-chip Hang Seng Index rose 239.08 points, or 1.86%, to 13,117.17 after trading between 13,020.80 and 13,167.20. Turnover was low at HK$37.5 billion, down from HK$49 billion Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.5% overnight to 7,395.70 on unexpected strength in the U.S. housing market, while the Nasdaq jumped 4.1% to 1,462.11. Traders said they expect the Hang Seng Index to track Wall Street's uptrend in the short term, though they don't anticipate any key positive economic data. 'There's no convincing evidence the real economy has bottomed, but the short-term index target is hard to tip as it is driven by liquidity,' said Y.K. Chan, a portfolio manager at Phillip Asset Management. HSBC rose for the seventh straight session, tracking gains in global banking stocks. It surged 5.8% to HK$42.70. 'Sentiment has improved and I expect more buying interest in banking stocks and China plays,' said Francis Lun, general manager at Fulbright Securities. China Mobile also bolstered the benchmark index, rising 1.5% to HK$68.10 on the prospect of a strong set of 2008 results as it continues to add mobile subscribers. The company, the world's biggest telecommunications operator by subscribers, is expected to report Thursday its net profit last year rose 32% to CNY115.07 billion, according to the average forecast of nine analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires.

IMF Downgraded Global Economy Growth This Year

Governments need to take steps to boost growth but also tighten regulation, Lord Peter Mandelson, UK Business Secretary, told CNBC Wednesday, as the IMF forecast that the UK recession won't end until 2011, one year later than most developed economies.The International Monetary Fund expects the global economy to contract 0.6 percent this year, according to forecasts provided on Tuesday by an IMF official.It compares with the IMF's last official forecast for the global economy, released in January, which pointed to global growth of 0.5 percent.

The U.S. economy is seen shrinking 2.6 percent this year, compared with a January forecast of a 1.6 percent contraction. The euro zone economy is expected to contract 3.2 percent, down from January's forecast of a 2 percent decline. Japan's economy was seen diving 5 percent this year, sharply down from the last forecast of a 2.6 percent contraction. Until now, all the IMF has said is that it expects global economic output to be "below zero" and Strauss-Kahn has called the current slowdown the "Great Recession".

Forecasts on World Economic Growth
2009 2010
Global Economy -0.6 2.3
United States -2.6 0.2
Euro Zone -3.2 0.1
Japan -5.0 0.0
UK -3.8 -0.2
Canada -2.0 1.2
G7 -3.2 0.2
Asia 3.6 5.8
Latin America -0.6 2.3

Source: IMF

Daily Commodities Market Recap and Technical Analysis

(http://www.marketclub.com/)

TRADING THE PRECIOUS METALS
Easy Forex http://www.easy-forex.com
Gold 915
Initial support at 906 (Mar 12 low) followed by 889 (Mar 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 944 (Mar 6 high) followed by 958 (Mar 2 high).
Currency Sup 2 Sup 1 Spot Res 1 Res 2
XAU/USD 889.00 906.00 915.00 944.00 958.50

Daily Forex Technicals written by India Forex
Gold: Gold lost almost $12 yesterday taking resistance from the 21 Daily EMA at $924. Currently Gold is trading around $910 with immediate support coming in at the $904 (55 Daily EMA & 50% Retracement). Breaking of this can push Gold towards $881 (100 Daily EMA &61.8% Retracement). All the stochastic is indicating a downside bias for this Metal and selling at up-ticks ($918) could be considered. (Gold: $910.90).
July silver closed slightly lower on Monday as it consolidates some of last week's rally but remains above trendline resistance crossing near 13.673. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends last week's rally, April's high crossing at 14.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 13.252 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
July copper closed higher on Monday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 343.87 confirming that a low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the reaction high crossing at 369.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 334.00 would temper the near- term friendly outlook.

TRADING FOOD
July cocoa closed lower on Monday as it extended last week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this Monday's decline, May's low crossing at 17.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 19.11 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.

Dollar index : DI is holding around the 87 levels currently with the stochastic in the over-sold region at 11.63%.

Technical Analysis for Major Currencies & Dow Jones Index

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by ecPulse.com |

EURO
The pair declined yesterday to continue the correction towards 1.2890 yet couldn't reach levels below 1.2925 as it was supported by the 61.8% Fibonacci correction resulting in a rebound to the upside above 1.3000. Trading on the intraday remains to the upside targeting 1.3130 to support the short term trend towards 1.3325 as far as 1.2925 remains intact.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.2830 and the key resistance at 1.3325
The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.2220 remains intact with targets at 1.2220 and 1.2120
Support: 1.3010, 1.2950, 1.2925, 1.2890, 1.2860
Resistance: 1.3075, 1.3130, 1.3175, 1.3245, 1.3295
Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe its good to buy the pair above 1.3010 with targets at 1.3130 and stop loss with a four hour close below 1.2925
GBP
The decline witnessed yesterday was expected after breaching 1.4040 yet the 1.3960 level was able to halt further losses towards 1.3885. The pair continues to be pressured to the upside as it nears the key resistance for the downside channel at 1.4165 supported by positive signs on the stochastic indicator. We are now facing a critical level that will determine the short term trend as follows: the pair will incline to breach 1.4165 before facing a pivot level at 1.4205 where if breached will open the way towards 1.4675 and 1.4825. However a decline below 1.4000 will be the breach of a neckline for a bearish technical pattern as seen in the above picture with targets at 1.3750 and 1.3685. The short term and intraday trends will be confirmed with the breach of either pivot level: the 1.4205 to the upside or the 1.4000 to the downside
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3685 and the key resistance at 1.4345
The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.5270 remains intact with targets at 1.3440 and 1.2960
Support: 1.4000, 1.3935, 1.3885, 1.3855, 1.3750
Resistance: 1.4090, 1.4165, 1.4205, 1.4260, 1.4320
Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe its good to sell the pair below 1.4000 with targets at 1.3885 and stop loss with a four hour close above 1.4095
JPY
Trading remains steady above the breached resistance level that has shifted to 97.95 where it is among the above mentioned level and the next target resistance (the key support for the previously breached ascending channel) at 99.55. We still see the intraday trend to the upside supporting the short term trend as it targets 100.30 and 102.00. This incline remains as far as 96.90 is unbroken.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 94.10 and the key resistance at 102.00
The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.10 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60
Support: 97.95, 97.30, 96.90, 96.35, 95.65
Resistance: 98.90, 99.55, 100.00, 100.30, 101.15
Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe its good to buy the pair above 97.95 with targets at 99.55 and stop loss with a four hour close below 96.90

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank |
EURUSD Comment: Inching higher again to the bottom of a large Ichimoku 'cloud'. Moving averages have crossed to bullish and more short covering is probably likely on a sustained break above 1.3200. Could do a better if a few other currencies helped it along.
Strategy: Buy at 1.3050 but only if prepared to add to 1.2835; stop below 1.2750. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.3100 for 1.3200 and eventually 1.3600.
Direction of Trade: ↗
Support Resistance
1.3000 " 1.3066/1.3072
1.2932 1.3100*
1.283 1.318
1.2765* 1.321
1.26 1.3335
GBPUSD Comment: Hovering between the 9-day moving average and the 26-day one and momentum is nil. A narrower Ichimoku 'cloud' is the only ray of hope that prices might manage a squeeze higher.
Strategy: Strategy remains unchanged: attempt longs at 1.4045; stop below 1.3700. Short term target 1.4200, eventually 1.4500.
Direction of Trade: ↗
Support Resistance
1.4029 " 1.4139
1.3965 1.4234
1.3895 1.4306
1.3700* 1.4385
1.3655* 1.4475
USDJPY Comment: Still holding rather unsteadily above the 97.00 area. Bullish momentum has collapsed completely and the US dollar is certainly no longer overbought. Allow for more of the same today and maybe all week.
Strategy: Attempt small shorts 98.50; stop above 99.25. Add to shorts on a sustained break below 97.00 for 96.00 short term and probably 93.00.
Direction of Trade: →
Support Resistance
98.28 " 98.86
98.09 98.98
97.55 99.19
97 99.69*
96.57 100

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade | Mar 18 09 06:01 GMT |
Dow Jones Recommended Levels
Today's support: - 7267.50, 7239.37 and 7205.62 (main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 7160.70, where correction also can be. Then follows 7132.50. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 7087.00. Continuation will bring 7064.38.
Today's resistance: - 7414.50 (main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 7470.00, where a correction may happen. Then follows 7509.36, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 7567.80. Continuation would bring 7605.17.

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by TheLFB-Forex.com |
Eur/Usd: Big Picture Elliott Wave
The Euro made a retracement after this week’s 1.3070 highs. The daily chart shows that Eur/Usd has already made a 500 pip gain from the black wave A lows that may lead to a retracement to the downside, probably in a wave B) correction. The stochastic oscillator is trading in the over-bought area with signs of a bearish cross. In the long-term we are watching for huge black wave B correction with possible structure of zig-zag pattern with resistance shown at the 38.2% and 50% of wave A. In the near-term we are looking for a long break of the 100 day SMA area at 1.3020 to test the upside resistance that could start off the moves mentioned

Financial Crisis Worst is Yet to Come, Market Forecasts Into 2015

Most investors don't take seriously warnings about the future of the economy and the financial marketplace, but those who did avoided the dreaded "Cs" of finance: the Credit Crisis and Crash of '08. What warnings are we talking about you might ask? Well, it was the headlines of several years ago screaming that a 'Category 6 Fiscal Storm', 'Debt-Driven Meltdown', 'Systemic Banking Crisis', 'Financial Train Wreck', 'Wild Ride', 'God-Awful Fiscal Storm', 'Major Upheaval', 'Rude Awakening', 'Great Disruption', 'Debt Bombshell', 'Major Upheaval', 'Unwelcome Economic Spiral', 'Perfect Financial Storm', 'Serious Collapse', 'Drastic Fall', 'Financial Disaster', 'Major Bear Market' and/or an 'Economic Earthquake' was in store for the U.S. and, indeed, the global economy in the very near future. And the future is now!

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Long-Term Economic Forecast: Slow Growth And Deflation

This week I am really delighted to be able to give you a condensed version of Gary Shilling's latest INSIGHT newsletter for your Outside the Box. Each month I really look forward to getting Gary's latest thoughts on the economy and investing. Last year in his forecast issue he suggested 13 investment ideas, all of which were profitable by the end of the year. It is not unusual for Gary to give us over 75 charts and tables in his monthly letters along with his commentary, which makes his thinking unusually clear and accessible.

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The Federal Reserve is Bankrupt

How Did It Happen and What are the Ugly Consequences?
Matthias Chang writes: The Federal Reserve is bankrupt for all intents and purposes. The same goes for the Bank of England! This article will focus largely on the Fed, because the Fed is the "financial land-mine".

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Gold Pullback an Opportunity to Accumulate

As of this moment, despite the weakness in spot gold prices and the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) this morning, the near and intermediate-term technical conditions of the market are relatively strong. After last week's $50 upmove, the $25 giveback (at this morning's low of $915.30) reflects a “normal” correction within an otherwise bullish market environment.

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The Grand Super-Cycle SPX Technical Conditions

Throw Mama From The Train – a funny and entertaining movie depending on who you are. But more so in terms of present circumstances in the stock market – a reflection of what we must live with right now as well. Mama was demeaning and aggravating in the movie, just like the market(s) in real life today. And unfortunately it's enough to make people throw their sensibilities away. In this respect everybody is so worried about missing a rally out of oversold conditions they keep gambling it's going to bounce, which does not allow for a sustainable squeeze higher. That's why stocks can't rally, because the trade is stubborn, complacent and bullish. This is of course a function of the spoiled brat mentality excessively good times for too long will foster. Thank you again, Mr. Greenspan.

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Forex Today - Lapkeu Bank Inggris & Data Ekonomi AS Kuatkan Euro & Pound

Euro menguat untuk hari ke-6 terhadap dolar, penguatan berturut-turut terlama di tahun ini, dan menguat terhadap yen karena saham Asia melanjutkan rallynya, mendorong investor untuk mencari aset yang memiliki yield lebih tinggi. Euro sempat mencapai level tertinggi 1,3072 kemarin setelah Handelsblatt melaporkan anggota dewan ECB Juergen Stark melihat peluang terbatas untuk penurunan suku bunga. Yen melemah terhadap dolar dan kiwi setelah Barclays Plc dan Standard Chartered mengatakan bank mengalami 'strong start' di tahun ini. Euro menguat ke $1.3026 per dolar di Tokyo dari $1.2968 kemarin. Yen melemah ke 127.95 per euro dari 127.36, yen juga melemah ke 98.79 per dolar dari 98.18 kemarin. Euro juga menguat berkat pernyataan negara G20 bahwa IMF akan memiliki dana dua kali lipat menjadi $500 miliar.

Dolar dan yen melemah terhadap euro setelah indeks N225 menguat 2.9% dan Indeks MSCI Asia-Pasific menguat 2%. Meski potensi penguatan euro terbatas berkat perkiraan data sentimen investor ZEW Jerman Maret diperkirakan -8 dari -5.8 di Februari, diikuti perkiraan investor bahwa ECB akan potong suku bunga dari 1.5% pada 2 April bersamaan dengan G20 Summit di Inggris. Nanti malam AS akan merilis Housing Start Februari perkiraan -3.4% menjadi 450,000, Building Permits diperkirakan 500,000, PPI diperkirakan +0.4% dari +0.8% di Januari.

Technical Analysis
EURUSD: jika ditutup diatas 100-day MA di 1.3059, euro dapat menguat ke 1.3100 (buy jika break)/1.3180/1.3340, support di 1.2959 (buy)/1 2861/1.2823.
GBPUSD: Masih bertahan diatas 10 & 25 day MA untuk peluang buy di 1.4045 target 1.4139/1.4234/1.4305, support di 1.3980/1.3845.
USDJPY: Selama masih ditutup diatas 97.40 peluang naik ke 99.24 (sell)/99.69 (buy jika break 100.20), support di 98.09/97.05/96.37. (Sumber Bloomberg, Mizuho Bank).

Forex Regional - Komitmen G20 Kuatkan Mata Uang Regional Asia.

Mata uang Regional Asia diluar Jepang, berpotensi melanjutkan penguatan terhadap dolar, berkat optimisme Chairman Fed Bernanke pada hari Senin malam, bahwa resesi di AS akan berakhir di tahun ini dan ekonomi pulih di 2010. Komentar tersebut angkat Wall Street dan harga minyak ke $47/barel. Meski penguatan regional bersifat TECHNICAL REBOUND temporary. Strong dolar diperkirakan memuncak di awal musim panas (Q2) terhadap mata uang Eropa (euro, pound, Swiss franc, krona Swedia, Zloty), Regional Asia+rupiah, komoditi (dolar Kanada, Kiwi, Aussie) dan Amerika Latin (Lihat prediksi Global + Indonesian Market 2009 di blog ini periode 22 Feb 09). Mata uang Asia rata-rata menguat pada hari Senin, dipimpin oleh Won Korea Selatan, setelah para menteri keuangan Negara G20 berkomitmen di akhir pekan di Inggris, untuk memulihkan sistem finansial, menjelang pertemuan puncak pada 2 April mendatang, telah mendorong penguatan saham regional. Indeks MSCI Asia-Pasific menguat 1.8% menjadi 76.03, level tertinggi di bulan ini. Won mengalami penguatan harian terbesar sebesar 3% ($ 1.440) dalam 3 bulan terakhir, berkat spekulasi AS akan meningkatkan perjanjian swap Forex dengan Korea Selatan menjadi $30 miliar. Ringgit Malaysia mengalami penguatan terbesar dalam 3 pekan di 3.6850. Meski yen Jepang melemah ke 98.22 per dolar, berkat spekulasi BOJ akan membeli oblìgasi pemerintah dimana dapat mendorong investor Jepang mencari aset yang memiliki yield lebih tinggi di luar negeri. Bath Thailand ditutup di 387.85, Peso di 48.46, Rupe India di 51.4750. Rupiah sedikit tidak berubah di 11,980 per dolar, dimana rupiah diperkirakan berada di range 11,850-12,050 pada hari Selasa, dan 11,800-12,100 pada pekan ini dengan volume harian yang tipis. IHSG ditutup melemah 3 poin di 1,324. Bank Rakyat Indonesia diperkirakan menerbitkan obligasi dolar senilai Rp 2 triliun di tahun ini.

Fokus Pekan Ini (16-20 Maret) The FOMC & Bernanke

Musim semi telah tiba pekan ini, investor akan berdebat apakah saat ini merupakan waktu untuk berharap kepada pasar atau hanya musim yg lebih suram lanjutan, bilamana data-data ekonomi dirilis. The Fed akan memutuskan suku bunga, diperkirakan tetap 0-0.25%, termasuk laporan ekonomi termasuk perumahan dan manufaktur. Pada hari Senin, merupakan setahun kejatuhan Bear Sterns. Pada akhìr pekan kemarin, menkeu negara G20 bertemu di Horsham, Inggris, yg menjanjikan usaha untuk memulihkan finansial global, menjelang pertemuan kepala negara G20 pada 2 April di Inggris. OPEC yang bertemu pada Minggu Kemarin di Vìenna, gagal memangkas produksi minyak.

Pada pekan lalu merupakan pekan terbaik untuk Wall Street sejak November. Banyak trader melihat kondisi sebuah RALLY dalam BEAR MARKET untuk sementara. Pekan ini, sejumlah lapkeu korporat akan dirilis. Oracle dan Nike dirilis hari Rabu. FedEx, Palm, GE meeting hari Kamis. The Fed akan bertemu pada Selasa-Rabu, laporan TICS (Actual: $60.2 B), Industrial Production AS (actual -1.5%) hari Senin. Fed Bernanke pada hari Senin, mengatakan beliau melihat resesi berakhir di tahun ini, dan pulih di 2010. Bernanke dijadwalkan berbicara hari Jumat. Laporan Housing Start, PPI hari Selasa,Empire State survey dan CPI hari Rabu, Jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed survey, Leading Indicators hari Kamis.