Track Record Saham Pekan Ini (21 - 24m Juli 2009)
BUMI 10.5%,UNSP 5.8%.ENRG 1.48%.DEWA 3.5%,ASII 5.2%,AALI 10.7%,UNTR 9.3%,BMTR -5.2%,
MNCN 0%,BHIT -3.7%,BBRI 2.1%,BMRI 7.2%,BBNI 1.1%,TLKM 6.1%,PTBA 8.3%,ITMG 11.6%,INDY 14.9%,ANTM 11.9%,INCO 8.4%,TINS 9.4%,TRUB 6.1%,ASIA 6.1%,KIJA 22.3%,
Total: 23 saham: 6.65% Outperform IHSG (+3.6%). TR 4 pekan lalu: +30.86% + 6.65% = 37.51%. Nantikan Analisa Minggu Depan Hari Senin. Dengarkan PASFM 92.4 Hari Senin 09.10. Analisa Pasar.
Friday, July 24, 2009
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Fri Jul 24 09 07:08 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's rally extended further to as high as 67.68 so far and touches 61.8% retracement of 73.38 to 58.32 at 67.63. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 64.62 minor support holds. Break of 66.25 key near term resistance argues that whole fall from 73.38 has completed already and further rise could now be seen to 73.38 high next. On the downside, below 64.62 will turn intraday outlook neutral first.
In the bigger picture, the stronger then expected rebound from 58.32 dampens the bearish view that whole rise from 33.2 has completed at 73.38. Also, considering that crude oil is still trading inside medium term rising channel despite earlier brief break, rise from 33.2 might indeed be in progress. Focus will now turn to 73.83 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 58.32 low is now needed to revive the case that crude oil has topped out.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's rally extended further to as high as 67.68 so far and touches 61.8% retracement of 73.38 to 58.32 at 67.63. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 64.62 minor support holds. Break of 66.25 key near term resistance argues that whole fall from 73.38 has completed already and further rise could now be seen to 73.38 high next. On the downside, below 64.62 will turn intraday outlook neutral first.
In the bigger picture, the stronger then expected rebound from 58.32 dampens the bearish view that whole rise from 33.2 has completed at 73.38. Also, considering that crude oil is still trading inside medium term rising channel despite earlier brief break, rise from 33.2 might indeed be in progress. Focus will now turn to 73.83 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 58.32 low is now needed to revive the case that crude oil has topped out.
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold retreats again depite edging higher to 957.5 and with 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, an intraday top might be in place. Outlook is turned neutral for the moment and some consolidation could be seen. But downside should be contained by 931.4 support and bring rally reusmption. Above 957.5 will target 992.1 resistance next. However, break of 931.4 support support will indicate that rebound from 904.8 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting this low.
In the bigger picture, the earlier than expected completion of fall from 992.1 suggests that it's part of the consolidation from 1007.7 or a correction to rise from 865. In either case, there are still some possible scenarios that will bring more consolidation below 1007.7. So we'd stay neutral as long as 1007.7 resistance holds and be prepared for another fall before completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, the case of another deep fall to 865 is not likely now. Anyway, break of 992.1 /1007.7 resistance will indicate that whole rise from 681 has resumed for 1033.9 key resistance next.
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold retreats again depite edging higher to 957.5 and with 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, an intraday top might be in place. Outlook is turned neutral for the moment and some consolidation could be seen. But downside should be contained by 931.4 support and bring rally reusmption. Above 957.5 will target 992.1 resistance next. However, break of 931.4 support support will indicate that rebound from 904.8 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting this low.
In the bigger picture, the earlier than expected completion of fall from 992.1 suggests that it's part of the consolidation from 1007.7 or a correction to rise from 865. In either case, there are still some possible scenarios that will bring more consolidation below 1007.7. So we'd stay neutral as long as 1007.7 resistance holds and be prepared for another fall before completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, the case of another deep fall to 865 is not likely now. Anyway, break of 992.1 /1007.7 resistance will indicate that whole rise from 681 has resumed for 1033.9 key resistance next.
Vicious Stocks Stealth Bull Market Eats the Bears Alive!, What's Next?
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dow Analysis and Projection
TREND ANALYSIS - The rally off of 8,090 has been strong and powerful and could carry for some more points before correcting. The key change to the behaviour of the trend is the development of a new primary trend line that should now contain all corrections and in fact projects towards 9,750 into December 2009. Therefore implying that we could see the Dow touch this line several times during the year. The anticipated immediate correcTion is expected to bounce off of this line.
RETRACEMENT LEVELS - The Dow Rally from 8087 has retraced 100% of the decline from 8877. The correction therefore was 8877 to 8087 or 33% which is a sign of strength. A rally of 200% of the correction projects towards a target of 9667. With intermediate term targets of 133% 9137, 150% 9272, 166% 9400 as key potential resistance areas. Therefore this is suggestive of a sustained trend along these price points, to be accompanied by corrections of between 33% to 50%.
PRICE POINTS - Immediate support is at 8,600, which would represent a 50% retracement from the above 9137 % level. The heavy consolidation area between 8,600 and 8,900 is indicative of further price action in this range which is suggestive of the Dow spending further significant time in this zone for several months. This is suggestive of more sharp rallies followed by downtrends back into this price zone for some months. Key support is at 8080 a break of which would negate this scenario.
ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY - Elliott wave count is straight forward and has not changed since the Stock market bottomed in March. The abc correction followed by the strong rally, is highly suggestive of an impulse wave 1, therefore implying a bull run of similar magnitude of the rally from 6470 to 8900, which projects to 10,500 that's significantly above the original target of 9,750.
MACD - the MACD indicator cross has signaled a buy, which is supportive of an overall bullish trend, though not at a particularly oversold level therefore implying that the trend will be more volatile and laboured than that of the rally from 6470 to 8900. As well as signaling that the eventual peak may set the market up for a more significant decline.
CYCLES - The bull market is suggestive of a 3 months up, 1 month down overall cycle pattern, this suggests a target of late October for the rally peak before a more significant correction takes place.
SEASONAL TREND - The seasonal trend should be for stocks to decline into early September, therefore this is contrary to the building scenario.
FUNDAMENTALS - People always ask reasons as to why stocks should rise, though in reality the reasons always become apparent AFTER the market has already moved, as I warned in Mid March, however I did at that time also give possible reasons, which still remain as the primary reasons for explanations of why stocks are rallying into a stealth bull market -
A. The markets move ahead of the economy, whilst I don't profess to know the EXACT reasons of why they will move AHEAD until that becomes apparent AFTER the market has already moved, however I do have some reasoning in that INFLATION, Zero Interest Rates (Forcing savers / financial institutions to take risks) Quantitative Easing (money printing), and HUGE Fiscal stimulus packages that are laying all of the ground work for the next bubble regardless of how bad things appear as any outcome that prevents another Great Depression will be seen as bullish! i.e. even a low growth high inflation stagflationary environment WILL be seen as a positive outcome against the present day data that points to a collapse of global demand on a scale not seen since the Great Depression. The governments HAVE learned the lessons from the Great Depression and WILL succeed in inflating the asset prices and ignite the next perhaps even bigger bubble, meanwhile the stealth bull market will continue which by the time everyone realizes what's going on stocks will already by up by perhaps more than 50% from the low.However in the final analysis one is trading the stock market and NOT the economic data, so yes reasons can always be found, but when it comes to actual trading they are irrelevant, especially at market junctures.
EARNINGS - Analysts are surprised !, earnings are surprising to the upside, the earnings 'fundamentalists' have been busy revising previous earnings forecasts that convinced many that fresh bear market lows were imminent and thus missing out on a stocks bull market that has already moved 40%!, Nevertheless its not surprising to me that earnings are surprising to the upside, expect even more 'surprises' later this year, after all where do you think all of the bailout billions have gone ? It has to go somewhere and we are seeing it the profit surprises in master market manipulators of Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan
STOCKS STEALTH BULL MARKET - My last analysis in the midst of the correction stated that the probability of an end to the current fledgling bull market being at less than 20%, with the rally to date confirming that we remain in a STRONG MULTI-YEAR stocks stealth bull market. I am amazed that a 40% rally over 3 months is STILL perceived as a BEAR market rally?, what happened to the 20% rule?.
MARKET MANIPULATION - The powerful rally following a HUGE technical SELL SIGNAL, is clear sign of market manipulation i.e. in terms of generating the sell signal AGAINST the bull market trend so as to PROFIT from the subsequent powerful short covering rally. Don't forget this is a BULL MARKET, All corrections are to get sucker money in on the short-side as an enable for a larger more profitable subsequent rally.
CONCLUSION - My earlier fears about a bull trap appear to be unfounded, the stock chart is talking that we are in a stocks bull market, and is suggestive of a trend higher towards a 2009 target of between 9750 and 10,000, with a high probability that we may get there before the end of October!. Key danger areas for this scenario are a. for the trend line to contain corrections, and b. that 8080, MUST HOLD.
Dow Analysis and Projection
TREND ANALYSIS - The rally off of 8,090 has been strong and powerful and could carry for some more points before correcting. The key change to the behaviour of the trend is the development of a new primary trend line that should now contain all corrections and in fact projects towards 9,750 into December 2009. Therefore implying that we could see the Dow touch this line several times during the year. The anticipated immediate correcTion is expected to bounce off of this line.
RETRACEMENT LEVELS - The Dow Rally from 8087 has retraced 100% of the decline from 8877. The correction therefore was 8877 to 8087 or 33% which is a sign of strength. A rally of 200% of the correction projects towards a target of 9667. With intermediate term targets of 133% 9137, 150% 9272, 166% 9400 as key potential resistance areas. Therefore this is suggestive of a sustained trend along these price points, to be accompanied by corrections of between 33% to 50%.
PRICE POINTS - Immediate support is at 8,600, which would represent a 50% retracement from the above 9137 % level. The heavy consolidation area between 8,600 and 8,900 is indicative of further price action in this range which is suggestive of the Dow spending further significant time in this zone for several months. This is suggestive of more sharp rallies followed by downtrends back into this price zone for some months. Key support is at 8080 a break of which would negate this scenario.
ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY - Elliott wave count is straight forward and has not changed since the Stock market bottomed in March. The abc correction followed by the strong rally, is highly suggestive of an impulse wave 1, therefore implying a bull run of similar magnitude of the rally from 6470 to 8900, which projects to 10,500 that's significantly above the original target of 9,750.
MACD - the MACD indicator cross has signaled a buy, which is supportive of an overall bullish trend, though not at a particularly oversold level therefore implying that the trend will be more volatile and laboured than that of the rally from 6470 to 8900. As well as signaling that the eventual peak may set the market up for a more significant decline.
CYCLES - The bull market is suggestive of a 3 months up, 1 month down overall cycle pattern, this suggests a target of late October for the rally peak before a more significant correction takes place.
SEASONAL TREND - The seasonal trend should be for stocks to decline into early September, therefore this is contrary to the building scenario.
FUNDAMENTALS - People always ask reasons as to why stocks should rise, though in reality the reasons always become apparent AFTER the market has already moved, as I warned in Mid March, however I did at that time also give possible reasons, which still remain as the primary reasons for explanations of why stocks are rallying into a stealth bull market -
A. The markets move ahead of the economy, whilst I don't profess to know the EXACT reasons of why they will move AHEAD until that becomes apparent AFTER the market has already moved, however I do have some reasoning in that INFLATION, Zero Interest Rates (Forcing savers / financial institutions to take risks) Quantitative Easing (money printing), and HUGE Fiscal stimulus packages that are laying all of the ground work for the next bubble regardless of how bad things appear as any outcome that prevents another Great Depression will be seen as bullish! i.e. even a low growth high inflation stagflationary environment WILL be seen as a positive outcome against the present day data that points to a collapse of global demand on a scale not seen since the Great Depression. The governments HAVE learned the lessons from the Great Depression and WILL succeed in inflating the asset prices and ignite the next perhaps even bigger bubble, meanwhile the stealth bull market will continue which by the time everyone realizes what's going on stocks will already by up by perhaps more than 50% from the low.However in the final analysis one is trading the stock market and NOT the economic data, so yes reasons can always be found, but when it comes to actual trading they are irrelevant, especially at market junctures.
EARNINGS - Analysts are surprised !, earnings are surprising to the upside, the earnings 'fundamentalists' have been busy revising previous earnings forecasts that convinced many that fresh bear market lows were imminent and thus missing out on a stocks bull market that has already moved 40%!, Nevertheless its not surprising to me that earnings are surprising to the upside, expect even more 'surprises' later this year, after all where do you think all of the bailout billions have gone ? It has to go somewhere and we are seeing it the profit surprises in master market manipulators of Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan
STOCKS STEALTH BULL MARKET - My last analysis in the midst of the correction stated that the probability of an end to the current fledgling bull market being at less than 20%, with the rally to date confirming that we remain in a STRONG MULTI-YEAR stocks stealth bull market. I am amazed that a 40% rally over 3 months is STILL perceived as a BEAR market rally?, what happened to the 20% rule?.
MARKET MANIPULATION - The powerful rally following a HUGE technical SELL SIGNAL, is clear sign of market manipulation i.e. in terms of generating the sell signal AGAINST the bull market trend so as to PROFIT from the subsequent powerful short covering rally. Don't forget this is a BULL MARKET, All corrections are to get sucker money in on the short-side as an enable for a larger more profitable subsequent rally.
CONCLUSION - My earlier fears about a bull trap appear to be unfounded, the stock chart is talking that we are in a stocks bull market, and is suggestive of a trend higher towards a 2009 target of between 9750 and 10,000, with a high probability that we may get there before the end of October!. Key danger areas for this scenario are a. for the trend line to contain corrections, and b. that 8080, MUST HOLD.
Wall Street's Love Affair with Ben Bernanke
By: Mike_Whitney
Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA careful reading of Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's op-ed in Tuesday's Wall Street Journal, shows that Bernanke thinks the economy is in a deflationary spiral that will last for some time.
Ben Bernanke:
"The depth and breadth of the global recession has required a highly accommodative monetary policy. Since the onset of the financial crisis nearly two years ago, the Federal Reserve has reduced the interest-rate target for overnight lending between banks (the federal-funds rate) nearly to zero. We have also greatly expanded the size of the Fed’s balance sheet through purchases of longer-term securities and through targeted lending programs aimed at restarting the flow of credit....My colleagues and I believe that accommodative policies will likely be warranted for an extended period."
No talk of recovery here; just a continuation of the same radical policies that were adopted after the collapse of Lehman Bros. The only sign of improvement has been in the stock market, where Bernanke's liquidity injections have jolted equities back to life. The S&P 500 is up 40% since March. Conditions in the broader economy have continued to deteriorate as unemployment rises, the states find it harder to balance their budgets, and the real estate bubble (commercial and residential) continues to unwind. The Fed's policies are Bernanke's way of saying, "The states are not the country. The banks are the country." The public seems slow to grasp this message.
Bernanke's op-ed is a public relations ploy intended to soften the effects of his visit to Capital Hill today. Congress wants to know the Fed chief's "exit strategy" for soaking up all the money he's created and avoiding inflation.
Bernanke again:
"The exit strategy is closely tied to the management of the Federal Reserve balance sheet. When the Fed makes loans or acquires securities, the funds enter the banking system and ultimately appear in the reserve accounts held at the Fed by banks and other depository institutions. These reserve balances now total about $800 billion, much more than normal. And given the current economic conditions, banks have generally held their reserves as balances at the Fed."This is the core issue. The Fed has built up bank reserves by accepting (mainly) mortgage-backed garbage (MBS) that is worth only pennies on the dollar. Bernanke assumes that investors will eventually recognize their mistake and begin to purchase these toxic assets at a price that won't bankrupt the banking system. It's a complete hoax and everyone knows it. In essence, Bernanke is saying that he is right and the market is wrong, which is why he continues to conceal the fact that he provided full-value loans for collateral which the banks will never be able to repay. The costs, of course, will eventually be shifted onto the taxpayer.
Bernanke knows that the country is in a Depression and that inflation won't be a problem for years to come. It's all politics. Bank lending is way off and the shadow banking system--which provided over 40% of consumer credit via securitization--is still on life-support. At the same time, the savings rate has spiked to 6.9%--a 15 year high--as consumers cut back on spending to service their debt-load, and try to make up for the $14 trillion in lost household wealth since the crisis began. If the banks aren't lending and consumers aren't spending, inflation is impossible.
Bernanke's zero-percent interest rates and lending facilities have been a total bust. The velocity of money (how fast money changes hands) has stopped. Retail is down 9% year-over-year. Imports/exports down 20%. Rail freight and shipping at historic lows. Travel, manufacturing, hotels, restaurants are all in the tank. The economy is flat-lining. Only Goldman and JPM have done well in this environment, and that's because the White House is a Goldman-annex.
The only Bernanke policy that's worked so far has been flooding the market with money, which has has sent equities into orbit while the real economy continues to twist in the wind. Here's how former hedge fund manager Andy Kessler summed it up last week in the Wall Street Journal:
"By buying U.S. Treasuries and mortgages to increase the monetary base by $1 trillion, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke didn't put money directly into the stock market but he didn't have to. With nowhere else to go, except maybe commodities, inflows into the stock market have been on a tear. Stock and bond funds saw net inflows of close to $150 billion since January. The dollars he cranked out didn't go into the hard economy, but instead into tradable assets. In other words, Ben Bernanke has been the market." (Andy Kessler, "The Bernanke Market" Wall Street Journal)
Bernanke's quantitative easing (QE) has pumped up bank stocks enough so that Geithner won't have to grovel to Congress for another TARP bailout. The banks now have access to the capital markets and can withstand the stormy downgrades ahead. Thus, the nagging problem of toxic assets has been solved (temporarily) just as Bernanke had planned.Bernanke will continue to monetize the debt (by purchasing more US Treasuries and MBS) until securitization is restored and there are signs of life in the failed wholesale credit-system. That's the real objective; to keep credit expansion in the hands of privately-owned financial institutions that are beyond the reach of government regulation. The Fed's so-called mandate of "full employment and price stability" is pure malarkey. The Fed's job is to provide an endless stream of cheap capital to Wall Street. By that standard, Bernanke has performed his task admirably.
Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA careful reading of Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's op-ed in Tuesday's Wall Street Journal, shows that Bernanke thinks the economy is in a deflationary spiral that will last for some time.
Ben Bernanke:
"The depth and breadth of the global recession has required a highly accommodative monetary policy. Since the onset of the financial crisis nearly two years ago, the Federal Reserve has reduced the interest-rate target for overnight lending between banks (the federal-funds rate) nearly to zero. We have also greatly expanded the size of the Fed’s balance sheet through purchases of longer-term securities and through targeted lending programs aimed at restarting the flow of credit....My colleagues and I believe that accommodative policies will likely be warranted for an extended period."
No talk of recovery here; just a continuation of the same radical policies that were adopted after the collapse of Lehman Bros. The only sign of improvement has been in the stock market, where Bernanke's liquidity injections have jolted equities back to life. The S&P 500 is up 40% since March. Conditions in the broader economy have continued to deteriorate as unemployment rises, the states find it harder to balance their budgets, and the real estate bubble (commercial and residential) continues to unwind. The Fed's policies are Bernanke's way of saying, "The states are not the country. The banks are the country." The public seems slow to grasp this message.
Bernanke's op-ed is a public relations ploy intended to soften the effects of his visit to Capital Hill today. Congress wants to know the Fed chief's "exit strategy" for soaking up all the money he's created and avoiding inflation.
Bernanke again:
"The exit strategy is closely tied to the management of the Federal Reserve balance sheet. When the Fed makes loans or acquires securities, the funds enter the banking system and ultimately appear in the reserve accounts held at the Fed by banks and other depository institutions. These reserve balances now total about $800 billion, much more than normal. And given the current economic conditions, banks have generally held their reserves as balances at the Fed."This is the core issue. The Fed has built up bank reserves by accepting (mainly) mortgage-backed garbage (MBS) that is worth only pennies on the dollar. Bernanke assumes that investors will eventually recognize their mistake and begin to purchase these toxic assets at a price that won't bankrupt the banking system. It's a complete hoax and everyone knows it. In essence, Bernanke is saying that he is right and the market is wrong, which is why he continues to conceal the fact that he provided full-value loans for collateral which the banks will never be able to repay. The costs, of course, will eventually be shifted onto the taxpayer.
Bernanke knows that the country is in a Depression and that inflation won't be a problem for years to come. It's all politics. Bank lending is way off and the shadow banking system--which provided over 40% of consumer credit via securitization--is still on life-support. At the same time, the savings rate has spiked to 6.9%--a 15 year high--as consumers cut back on spending to service their debt-load, and try to make up for the $14 trillion in lost household wealth since the crisis began. If the banks aren't lending and consumers aren't spending, inflation is impossible.
Bernanke's zero-percent interest rates and lending facilities have been a total bust. The velocity of money (how fast money changes hands) has stopped. Retail is down 9% year-over-year. Imports/exports down 20%. Rail freight and shipping at historic lows. Travel, manufacturing, hotels, restaurants are all in the tank. The economy is flat-lining. Only Goldman and JPM have done well in this environment, and that's because the White House is a Goldman-annex.
The only Bernanke policy that's worked so far has been flooding the market with money, which has has sent equities into orbit while the real economy continues to twist in the wind. Here's how former hedge fund manager Andy Kessler summed it up last week in the Wall Street Journal:
"By buying U.S. Treasuries and mortgages to increase the monetary base by $1 trillion, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke didn't put money directly into the stock market but he didn't have to. With nowhere else to go, except maybe commodities, inflows into the stock market have been on a tear. Stock and bond funds saw net inflows of close to $150 billion since January. The dollars he cranked out didn't go into the hard economy, but instead into tradable assets. In other words, Ben Bernanke has been the market." (Andy Kessler, "The Bernanke Market" Wall Street Journal)
Bernanke's quantitative easing (QE) has pumped up bank stocks enough so that Geithner won't have to grovel to Congress for another TARP bailout. The banks now have access to the capital markets and can withstand the stormy downgrades ahead. Thus, the nagging problem of toxic assets has been solved (temporarily) just as Bernanke had planned.Bernanke will continue to monetize the debt (by purchasing more US Treasuries and MBS) until securitization is restored and there are signs of life in the failed wholesale credit-system. That's the real objective; to keep credit expansion in the hands of privately-owned financial institutions that are beyond the reach of government regulation. The Fed's so-called mandate of "full employment and price stability" is pure malarkey. The Fed's job is to provide an endless stream of cheap capital to Wall Street. By that standard, Bernanke has performed his task admirably.
Abandoned U.S. Dollar and Paradigm Shift
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Currencies
Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA paradigm shift is underway, unrecognized inside the US kettle. Its water level is falling and its temperature is rising, even as fewer foreign born cooks stir its contents. The US banking and political leaders errantly pursue a path toward a return to normalcy, when all pathways have been washed out by powerful storms that to do abate and will worsen. Several key developments point to a new global order taking shape, as the Chinese actively work to plant global seeds that result in the Yuan currency serving more of a role in global trade. They will eventually de-throne the USDollar from its primal perch. The USDollar will be used less in global trade. The US$-based assets are being diversified. These developments are gaining traction, power, and publicity.The foreign creditors continue to protect their core US$-denominated reserves, while clearly undermining the US$ on the margin, as alternatives are chosen. To date, the alternative choice is hard assets, commodity supplies, and properties from the resource camp. The paradigm shift will change the face of the United States permanently, but to date few recognize the changing landscape.
EURO IS THE KEY, ON EDGE OF BIG UPLEG
The Competing Currency War is to reach a fever pitch. The USDollar weakness will force other currency custodians to wreck their own in response, so as to avoid the further damage from a rise. A sequence of currency structural changes seems evident in three stages, a currency crisis in three stages, shared in the July Gold & Currency Report posted this week. It involves the Euro and what are more commonly called Commodity Currencies. Gold & silver (along with platinum) will be primary beneficiaries of the deepening crisis. It is called a Credit Crisis nowadays. A better description is a Bank Crisis. In time, it will be called a Currency Crisis as money will be doubted for quality and reliability.The Euro currency is ready to challenge the 160 highs again. It is reluctant beneficiary to a crumbling USDollar. The custodians of the Euro want a stable currency, not a too strong currency. They will not have their wish. As the USDollar suffers the shameful global rejection, the Euro benefits. What is good for selling EuroBond debt is also bad for European export industries. A rising Euro keeps down economic costs across the continent, a vital buffer. However, the engine of Europe is Germany, whose export trade struggles and will feel greater stress as the Euro rises further. The reversal pattern dictates a target of 160, thus a challenge of 2008 highs. The base from last winter at 126 was a reaction low. The impulse high at 143 must be overcome, but all signs point to surpassing it. Hue and cry will come from Europe when the runup occurs. After 143 is overcome, a sudden scary fast move will come to 155, almost a 10% move with no resistance. In the currency realm, that is VERY DISRUPTIVE. The move will drag the US$ DX index down to 73-74 range, with blood on the FOREX floor.
Currencies
Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA paradigm shift is underway, unrecognized inside the US kettle. Its water level is falling and its temperature is rising, even as fewer foreign born cooks stir its contents. The US banking and political leaders errantly pursue a path toward a return to normalcy, when all pathways have been washed out by powerful storms that to do abate and will worsen. Several key developments point to a new global order taking shape, as the Chinese actively work to plant global seeds that result in the Yuan currency serving more of a role in global trade. They will eventually de-throne the USDollar from its primal perch. The USDollar will be used less in global trade. The US$-based assets are being diversified. These developments are gaining traction, power, and publicity.The foreign creditors continue to protect their core US$-denominated reserves, while clearly undermining the US$ on the margin, as alternatives are chosen. To date, the alternative choice is hard assets, commodity supplies, and properties from the resource camp. The paradigm shift will change the face of the United States permanently, but to date few recognize the changing landscape.
EURO IS THE KEY, ON EDGE OF BIG UPLEG
The Competing Currency War is to reach a fever pitch. The USDollar weakness will force other currency custodians to wreck their own in response, so as to avoid the further damage from a rise. A sequence of currency structural changes seems evident in three stages, a currency crisis in three stages, shared in the July Gold & Currency Report posted this week. It involves the Euro and what are more commonly called Commodity Currencies. Gold & silver (along with platinum) will be primary beneficiaries of the deepening crisis. It is called a Credit Crisis nowadays. A better description is a Bank Crisis. In time, it will be called a Currency Crisis as money will be doubted for quality and reliability.The Euro currency is ready to challenge the 160 highs again. It is reluctant beneficiary to a crumbling USDollar. The custodians of the Euro want a stable currency, not a too strong currency. They will not have their wish. As the USDollar suffers the shameful global rejection, the Euro benefits. What is good for selling EuroBond debt is also bad for European export industries. A rising Euro keeps down economic costs across the continent, a vital buffer. However, the engine of Europe is Germany, whose export trade struggles and will feel greater stress as the Euro rises further. The reversal pattern dictates a target of 160, thus a challenge of 2008 highs. The base from last winter at 126 was a reaction low. The impulse high at 143 must be overcome, but all signs point to surpassing it. Hue and cry will come from Europe when the runup occurs. After 143 is overcome, a sudden scary fast move will come to 155, almost a 10% move with no resistance. In the currency realm, that is VERY DISRUPTIVE. The move will drag the US$ DX index down to 73-74 range, with blood on the FOREX floor.
Dow And S&P Structure Completing Broadening Formations
By Corey Rosenbloom on July 24, 2009
I first mentioned the possibility that the Dow Jones index was forming a “Broadening Formation” on July 15th and that pattern now appears to be the dominant structure with a price target that has almost completed. Please take a look at the original post and then let’s see the updated structure as of today’s powerful move up. If we connect the doji highs in June (which are ascending) and begin a trendine from the May highs, we see the following upper trendline which has a price projection target around 9,200 to 9,350, which seems to be a highly likely target towards which price is heading.With the break above the June highs today, and above key resistance, it shows the resilience of the buyers (bulls) to defy any sort of chart resistance or internal non-confirmations to achieve new highs - it also speaks to the sellers who are having to cover positions by purchasing back borrowed shares.
It’s possible that the shorts covering stops will help give the fuel needed to complete this formation - which has bearish overtones if it plays out as expected.
A broadening formation is a sign that a market is swinging wildly in both directions as neither side can find value and a struggle for dominance is playing out - that’s exactly the case we’re seeing now.
Let’s take a quick look at the S&P 500 which is showing the same structure:
S&P 500:
The explanation is the same for the S&P 500, though it would appear the target would be about the 1,000 area for the pattern to complete.Despite the new price highs, volume barely made a new high in the S&P 5oo for July and the Dow Jones failed to make a new July high in volume. Summertime trading sessions are known for reduced volume so take this into account - though it still is a slight non-confirmation of higher prices.
I first mentioned the possibility that the Dow Jones index was forming a “Broadening Formation” on July 15th and that pattern now appears to be the dominant structure with a price target that has almost completed. Please take a look at the original post and then let’s see the updated structure as of today’s powerful move up. If we connect the doji highs in June (which are ascending) and begin a trendine from the May highs, we see the following upper trendline which has a price projection target around 9,200 to 9,350, which seems to be a highly likely target towards which price is heading.With the break above the June highs today, and above key resistance, it shows the resilience of the buyers (bulls) to defy any sort of chart resistance or internal non-confirmations to achieve new highs - it also speaks to the sellers who are having to cover positions by purchasing back borrowed shares.
It’s possible that the shorts covering stops will help give the fuel needed to complete this formation - which has bearish overtones if it plays out as expected.
A broadening formation is a sign that a market is swinging wildly in both directions as neither side can find value and a struggle for dominance is playing out - that’s exactly the case we’re seeing now.
Let’s take a quick look at the S&P 500 which is showing the same structure:
S&P 500:
The explanation is the same for the S&P 500, though it would appear the target would be about the 1,000 area for the pattern to complete.Despite the new price highs, volume barely made a new high in the S&P 5oo for July and the Dow Jones failed to make a new July high in volume. Summertime trading sessions are known for reduced volume so take this into account - though it still is a slight non-confirmation of higher prices.
Dow Jones Above 9000? Various Stages Of Retirement Denial
By Mike Rowan on July 24, 2009
It is hard to imagine the kind of volatility and economic turmoil that we have had over the past year. Giants like Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers are gone, AIG and GM are owned by government, and Citigroup was trading under $1 a share at one point. However, after dropping down to 6440, the Dow Jones Industrial average is back over 9000. Twelve months ago, you would have thought that we would be crazy for celebrating a DJIA at today’s level. The question would now be, “Is your 401k, 403b, or IRA, looking better?”
The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s Wild Ride
dow jones, dow jones 9000, retirement planning, reverse AIG stock split, dow jones industrial average
The Market Crash and your 401k or IRA?
If I have seen it once, I have seen it a dozen times. The stock market tanks, investors run screaming for the hills, and they leave their 401k statements on the counter unopened. However, they tend to do one other thing before they leave. One quick call to their 401k administrator, or with one swift stroke online, investors make the “safe move” and liquidate all of their positions to move into cash or money market funds. Typically, this is probably the largest and most obvious buying signal for the financial markets….when everybody else is selling out due to an imminent financial armageddon.
The Stock Market Bounceback, and Seller’s Remorse
(Fast Forward to Current)
Today, the Dow has broken back above the 9000 level. There is crazy talk about housing starts increasing, Ford has announced a 3 billion dollar profit, and American General is trading for nearly 13 dollars a share! Times are good again!
Investors who sold out of their retirement assets at DOW 6500 certainly do not want to miss out on the remaining imminent rally. After all, the all time high of the DJIA is around 14,000, nearly 65% above the current market positions. I sure don’t want to miss out on that 65% gain, especially since my retirement account is still 1/2 of what it was a year ago. Hold on to your seats, I am going back into the Stock Market, full bore!
The Double Dip Bottom and your Retirement
(Jump to the Future)
How was I supposed to know that housing starts were artificially buoyed by dropping interest rates. What do you mean Ford’s 3 billion dollar profit was a one time event due to restructuring. AIG is trading at 12 bucks a share as a result of a reverse stock split? How come nobody let me know what a double dip bottom entailed? I thought that I was going to miss the rest of the stock market move!
Retirement Advice and Advisors
The situation above has happened before, is currently happening, and will no doubt happen again. Nobody likes to be the voice of caution, but there are many advantages to depending on a trusted source with your retirement. This may be by using a Financial Advisor, eRollover, or a combination of the two. The bottom line is that there is no free lunch to be had. Acting emotionally and trying to time the market will harm your retirement more often than not. Sometimes, you need a trusted source to be the voice of reason.
It is hard to imagine the kind of volatility and economic turmoil that we have had over the past year. Giants like Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers are gone, AIG and GM are owned by government, and Citigroup was trading under $1 a share at one point. However, after dropping down to 6440, the Dow Jones Industrial average is back over 9000. Twelve months ago, you would have thought that we would be crazy for celebrating a DJIA at today’s level. The question would now be, “Is your 401k, 403b, or IRA, looking better?”
The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s Wild Ride
dow jones, dow jones 9000, retirement planning, reverse AIG stock split, dow jones industrial average
The Market Crash and your 401k or IRA?
If I have seen it once, I have seen it a dozen times. The stock market tanks, investors run screaming for the hills, and they leave their 401k statements on the counter unopened. However, they tend to do one other thing before they leave. One quick call to their 401k administrator, or with one swift stroke online, investors make the “safe move” and liquidate all of their positions to move into cash or money market funds. Typically, this is probably the largest and most obvious buying signal for the financial markets….when everybody else is selling out due to an imminent financial armageddon.
The Stock Market Bounceback, and Seller’s Remorse
(Fast Forward to Current)
Today, the Dow has broken back above the 9000 level. There is crazy talk about housing starts increasing, Ford has announced a 3 billion dollar profit, and American General is trading for nearly 13 dollars a share! Times are good again!
Investors who sold out of their retirement assets at DOW 6500 certainly do not want to miss out on the remaining imminent rally. After all, the all time high of the DJIA is around 14,000, nearly 65% above the current market positions. I sure don’t want to miss out on that 65% gain, especially since my retirement account is still 1/2 of what it was a year ago. Hold on to your seats, I am going back into the Stock Market, full bore!
The Double Dip Bottom and your Retirement
(Jump to the Future)
How was I supposed to know that housing starts were artificially buoyed by dropping interest rates. What do you mean Ford’s 3 billion dollar profit was a one time event due to restructuring. AIG is trading at 12 bucks a share as a result of a reverse stock split? How come nobody let me know what a double dip bottom entailed? I thought that I was going to miss the rest of the stock market move!
Retirement Advice and Advisors
The situation above has happened before, is currently happening, and will no doubt happen again. Nobody likes to be the voice of caution, but there are many advantages to depending on a trusted source with your retirement. This may be by using a Financial Advisor, eRollover, or a combination of the two. The bottom line is that there is no free lunch to be had. Acting emotionally and trying to time the market will harm your retirement more often than not. Sometimes, you need a trusted source to be the voice of reason.
Euro May Advance to Strongest This Year: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The euro may gain versus the dollar to $1.4719, the strongest since December, should the currency rise above so-called resistance at $1.4338, according to Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. The 16-nation currency already broke above the descending trend line on a so-called triangle pattern, strengthening beyond the 76.4 percent retracement of the slump from the Dec. 18 high to the March 4 low, said Masashi Hashimoto, Tokyo-based senior analyst at the unit of Japan’s largest banking group. The triangle is formed by the descending trend line, which connects the highs of June 3 and July 1, and by an ascending trend line, which connects the lows of June 16 and July 8, he said. “Rising pressure will increase if the euro gains above the June 3 high of $1.4338,” Hashimoto said. “The currency has broken above the triangle. It has also gone through the 76.4 percent Fibonacci retracement level.”
The euro rose to $1.4158 as of 7:54 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.4143 in New York yesterday, when it fell 0.5 percent. The currency this week climbed above $1.4185, the 76.4 percent retrenchment of the slump from the Dec. 18 high of $1.4719 to the March 4 low of $1.2457, based on a series of numbers known as the Fibonacci sequence.
Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low. A break above resistance or below support indicates a currency may move to the next level. Resistance is an area where sell orders may be clustered. In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast price changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.
The euro rose to $1.4158 as of 7:54 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.4143 in New York yesterday, when it fell 0.5 percent. The currency this week climbed above $1.4185, the 76.4 percent retrenchment of the slump from the Dec. 18 high of $1.4719 to the March 4 low of $1.2457, based on a series of numbers known as the Fibonacci sequence.
Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low. A break above resistance or below support indicates a currency may move to the next level. Resistance is an area where sell orders may be clustered. In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast price changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.
Commodities Signal 12% Rally by End of Year: Technical Analysis
By Millie Munshi
July 24 (Bloomberg) -- Prices for commodities including oil and copper may rally another 12 percent this year, based on a technical analysis of moving averages by Logic Advisors.The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials climbed above its 50-day moving average today, a “bullish” signal for prices, said William O’Neill, a Logic Advisors partner in Upper Saddle River, New Jersey. As the index moves higher than the 50- day average, that momentum will attract more investors to commodities, helping to spur further price gains, he said.The CRB Index has jumped 26 percent from this year’s low on Feb. 24, as indications emerged that the worst of the global recession has passed and China’s demand for raw materials rose. Oil has surged 51 percent this year, and copper is up 79 percent.
“Commodities are in a bullish mode,” O’Neill said. “We’re seeing more money flow into commodities, particularly industrial commodities, and we’re seeing the gradual erosion of the dollar. These will continue to be driving forces for these prices, along with the evidence that the global economy is bottoming. We’ll see commodities rally 10 to 12 percent by year- end.”Earlier this year, the CRB pushed past the 50-day moving average on March 17 and rose 6 percent by March 23 before retracing the gain. The index jumped over the 50-day average again on March 31 and surged 21 percent by June 11.The CRB Index rose 1.8 percent today, the biggest gain in six weeks, to 251.27 in New York. The gauge’s 50-day moving average stood at 248.50.
July 24 (Bloomberg) -- Prices for commodities including oil and copper may rally another 12 percent this year, based on a technical analysis of moving averages by Logic Advisors.The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials climbed above its 50-day moving average today, a “bullish” signal for prices, said William O’Neill, a Logic Advisors partner in Upper Saddle River, New Jersey. As the index moves higher than the 50- day average, that momentum will attract more investors to commodities, helping to spur further price gains, he said.The CRB Index has jumped 26 percent from this year’s low on Feb. 24, as indications emerged that the worst of the global recession has passed and China’s demand for raw materials rose. Oil has surged 51 percent this year, and copper is up 79 percent.
“Commodities are in a bullish mode,” O’Neill said. “We’re seeing more money flow into commodities, particularly industrial commodities, and we’re seeing the gradual erosion of the dollar. These will continue to be driving forces for these prices, along with the evidence that the global economy is bottoming. We’ll see commodities rally 10 to 12 percent by year- end.”Earlier this year, the CRB pushed past the 50-day moving average on March 17 and rose 6 percent by March 23 before retracing the gain. The index jumped over the 50-day average again on March 31 and surged 21 percent by June 11.The CRB Index rose 1.8 percent today, the biggest gain in six weeks, to 251.27 in New York. The gauge’s 50-day moving average stood at 248.50.
Gold to Target Record Above $970 Resistance: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Gold may extend a recent rally and target its record high as so-called momentum indicators suggest “there’s plenty of fuel in the tank to propel a multi-week advance,” BNP Paribas SA said, citing trading patterns. Gold’s current advance has scope to replicate the powerful April-to-June uptrend, Andrew Chaveriat, the bank’s New York- based technical strategist, wrote in a report yesterday.Projecting a similar rise off the July 8 low of $905.10, gold may target $1,030 by early September, a target that coincides with the revisiting of the March 2008 record high of $1,032.70, Chaveriat wrote. Bullion’s eight-week stochastic indicator is “well below” the oversold zone, he said.
Gold for immediate delivery traded little changed at $947.71 an ounce at 8:37 a.m. Singapore time and is heading for a second weekly increase. The precious metal is down 8.1 percent from its peak on March 17, 2008. Bullion’s high this year was $1,006.29 an ounce, reached Feb. 20.“In order to confirm scope for a rally toward $1,030, gold must overcome robust resistance at $957 and $970, representing the 61.8 percent and 76.4 percent retracement points of the June to July decline,” Chaveriat wrote, referring to percentages that are part of the Fibonacci sequence. Resistance levels are where sell orders may be clustered.Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low. A break of a level of support indicates a price may move to the next level. A failure indicates a trend may stall. Other key Fibonacci levels include 38.2 percent and 50 percent.“However, given this month’s swift rise, daily momentum is overbought, and combined with the proximity of $957 and $965 resistance, this might cause a near-term pause in the rally and perhaps a pullback toward $942/$932 support,” he said.
“If such a consolidation or dip occurs, it should be followed by renewed gains breaking $957/$965/$970 resistance, opening a re-test of the $990 June high,” Chaveriat added. “Breaking $990 is possible next month, opening the $1,000 psychological barrier and February high.”
Gold for immediate delivery traded little changed at $947.71 an ounce at 8:37 a.m. Singapore time and is heading for a second weekly increase. The precious metal is down 8.1 percent from its peak on March 17, 2008. Bullion’s high this year was $1,006.29 an ounce, reached Feb. 20.“In order to confirm scope for a rally toward $1,030, gold must overcome robust resistance at $957 and $970, representing the 61.8 percent and 76.4 percent retracement points of the June to July decline,” Chaveriat wrote, referring to percentages that are part of the Fibonacci sequence. Resistance levels are where sell orders may be clustered.Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low. A break of a level of support indicates a price may move to the next level. A failure indicates a trend may stall. Other key Fibonacci levels include 38.2 percent and 50 percent.“However, given this month’s swift rise, daily momentum is overbought, and combined with the proximity of $957 and $965 resistance, this might cause a near-term pause in the rally and perhaps a pullback toward $942/$932 support,” he said.
“If such a consolidation or dip occurs, it should be followed by renewed gains breaking $957/$965/$970 resistance, opening a re-test of the $990 June high,” Chaveriat added. “Breaking $990 is possible next month, opening the $1,000 psychological barrier and February high.”
Thursday, July 23, 2009
IHSG/Forex/Stodex: Risk Appetite Mendorong penguatan IHSG, Regional, FX Eropa & USDJPY
IHSG Outlook
Seperti perkiraan kami sejak beberapa pekan lalu, IHSG masih berpotensi melanjutkan trend kenaikan berkat positifnya faktor di dalam dan luar negeri dapat menghapus laju penurunan IHSG sejak awal tahun ini (+59% YTD hingga kemarin). Faktor positif dari dalam negeri memberikan support kepada IHSG hingga pekan depan, seperti penurunan harga komoditi di bulan Juli mendorong perkiraan penurunan inflasi RI bulan Juli memicu spekulasi penurunan suku bunga BI dari 6.75% di RDG bulan depan, penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar (target Rp 9,800/10,000) dapat mendorong aliran dana masuk ke pasar modal, perkiraan data GDP Q2 2009 Indonesia akan lebih baik dari perkiraan Menteri keuangan: 3.7% q/q (UBI memprediksi 4.0% q/q: pertumbuhan di sektor keuangan, pertambangan, transportasi dan komunikasi), perkiraan lapkeu emiten semester 1 2009 di pekan depan dapat tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan analis, isu positif dari pembagian dividen dan ekspansi sejumlah emiten (BBKP, BUMI, ADRO, INDY), serta laporan penetapan hasil Pilpres 2009 oleh KPU besok, merupakan hal-hal yang menopang kinerja IHSG hingga akhir bulan ini. Sementara faktor regional dan Wall Street (DJIA target inverted H&S di 9500) yang didukung kuatnya lapkeu emiten H1 2009, ikut mensupport IHSG.
Stock Picks: Average last 4 week +30.8%. Target 10-20%, Risk < -7%. Closing today
Hold BUY: BUMI/UNSP/ENRG/DEWA, ASII/AALI/UNTR, BMTR/MNCN/BHIT, BBRI,BMRI,BBNI,TLKM,PTBA,ITMG,INDY,ANTM,INCO,TINS,TRUB, ASIA, KIJA
Buy (average up) saham pilihan jika IHSG break 2170, close di sesi 2 (target 5%)
Stock Picks:
* GZCO buy target Rp 240
* INDY buy target Rp 3500
Global Outlook
Indeks saham regional dan AS kembali diuntungkan oleh sejumlah laporan positif dari earnings AT&T, Ebay, 3M, Ford Motor semalam, mencatat hasil lebih baik dari perkiraan, diikuti lebih baik dari perkiraan data Existng Home Sales AS bulan Juni (+3.6% menjadi 4.89 juta unit) yang mengangkat 13 saham perumahan unggulan AS dan Jobless Claims meningkat 30,000 menjadi 554,000 (tetapi continued claims anjlok 88,000 menjadi 6.225 juta orang) diikuti analis Credit Suisse yang meningkatkan rating saham global menjadi OVERWEIGHT, memberkan sentimen positif kepada kinerja indeks saham AS dan regional pada hari ini. Fakor teknikal yang uptrend jangka pendek (target DJIA 9,500, Nikkei 10,500, Hang Seng 21,000, Shanghai 3,500) ikut mendukung kinerja indeks global hingga pekan depan. Meski kekhawatiran terhadap CIT Group yang dapat mengalami kebangkrutan setelah debt swap bulan depan, dapat menahan momentum kenaikan indeks saham AS dan regional Asia dalam waktu dekat ini.
Technical Analysis:
Akhirnya IHSG berhasil ditutup diatas trendline resistance di 2,159, diikuti pola white opening marubozu (bullish continuation) dan didukung oleh pola uptrend channel (upper channel di 2,225, middle 2,178) mendekati 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement di 2,170 yang dapat melanjutkan trend kenaikan jangka pendek dan jangka menengah ke target 2,422 (76.4% FR 2838-1089), selama tidak ditutup mingguan dibawah 2,062 (trendline support). Signal penutupan diatas 2,133 (5-day MA) dan 2,102 (10- day MA), indikator ADX flat, stochastic dan MACD bullish, seharusnya masih mendukung potensi kenaikan lebih lanjut. Hitungan Elliot Wave menunjukkan perkiraan kenaikan saat ini merupakan proses wave minor 3 dalam proses impulse wave 5 dalam wave intermediate 4 / B.
Resistance: 2242.30/2223.79/2205.27/2186.76. PP 2149.73
Support : 2143.22/2124.70/2112.70/2094.18.
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2140 - 2,200)
Nikkei Futures Kontrak September (SSIU9)
Indeks Nikkei ditutup pada level tertinggi dalam 3 pekan terakhir, dipicu kenaikan saham eksportir seperti Sony Corp dan saham sejenis lainnya, menyusul pelemahan yen. Selain itu, Kyocera Corp. dan saham teknologi lainnya menguat, berkat keyakinan mengenai pembelanjaan konsumen AS menyusul laporan keuangan Apple Inc. yang solid. Indeks Nikkei .N225 ditutup menguat 69,78 poin, atau 0,72%, ke posisi 9.792,94.
Di chart daily, Nikkei mulai berada dalam trend bullish, karena masih berada dalam uptrend channel dan ditutup diatas 76.4% di 9704. Signal bullish continuation dari candle blue candle, ADX meningkat stochastic crossing up dan MACD netral, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan kenaikan lebih lanjut. Resistance di 9964 (trendline))/9860 (middle channel). Support di 9699 (lower channel)/9471 (50.0% FR). Perkiraan range hari ini 9650-9950. Rekomendasi Sell 9970 target 9670 stop 100p, sell 10100 target 9700 stp 100p. Buy 9670 target 9970 stop 100p, Buy 9580 target 9200 stop 50p. (0p)
Kospi Futures Kontrak September (KSU9)
Indeks Kospi ditutup stabil kemarin, berkat serangkaian laporan keuangan yang positif. Selain itu, penguatan saham media dan keuangan juga mendongkrak kinerja indeks. Namun, Hyundai Motor jatuh meski melaporkan kinerja keuangan yang lebih baik dari prediksi. Indeks Kospi .KS11 ditutup hanya naik 2,45 poin, atau 0,16%, ke posisi 1.496,49, setelah sempat menyentuh level psikologi 1.500, untuk kali pertama sejak September 2008.
Dalam chart daily, indeks masih berada di bawah trendline dalam pola ascending triangle dalam uptrend channel didukung pola candle doji star dengan spike low (potensi bearish reversal). Kondisi stochastic crossing up, MACD bullish dan ADX trending up, seharusnya masih mendorong perkiraan kenaikan lebih lanjut. Resistance berada di 197.80/200.80. Support di 193.30/190.90. Rekomendasi Sell break 193.00 & 190.90 target 186.00 stop 100p, buy 190.00 target 195.00, sell break 185.50 target 183.00. Sell 197.80/200 target 190.00 stop 100p. (+140p)
Hang Seng Futures Kontrak Juli (HSIN9)
Indeks Hang Seng mengakhiri perdagangan hari ini menguat 2,96%, mengikuti kenaikan bursa saham regional menyusul optimisme pelaku pasar terhadap baiknya data ekonomi AS maupun Cina, serta serangkaian laporan keuangan korporasi. Penguatan indeks Hang Seng dipicu oleh saham-saham keuangan dan energi. Indeks Hang Seng .HSI ditutup melonjak 569,53 poin, atau 2,96%, ke posisi 19.817.70.
Dalam chart daily, indeks berada dalam pola uptrend channel dalam formasi bullish broadening , didukung pola candle mat hold (bullish reversal), ADX meningkat, stochastic golden cross, MACD bearish divergence seharusnya dukung potensi bullish reversal. Resistance di 20030 (trendline dalam formasi broadening)/20180. Support 19230/19480. Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan wave koreksi v (akhir) dalam subwave motive (3) cycle B. Rekomendasi : Sell 201O0 & 20020 target 19700 (or closing) stop 150 p. Sell 19200 target 18950. Buy 19.000 target 19500. sell break 18900 target 18460. buy break 20040 target Sell 20700 target 20000 stop 100p. (+220-100+90p)
Technical Analysis
EUR-USD
Breakoutnya pola symmetrical triangle kembali menunjukkan indikasi bullish continuation, diikuti pola uptrend channel, didukung oleh indikator ADX naik, stochastic crossing up dan MACD bullish, seharusnya masih mendukung perkiraan kenaikan hari ini. Support berada di 1.4175 (middle channel)/1.4100 (upper channel), Resistance berada di 1.4300/1.4370. Euro berada di dalam wave proses iii dalam wave 3 zig zag, untuk target $ 1.4277, selama tidak mencapai dibawah 1.4020. Buy 1.4150 & buy 1.4070 target 1.4200, sell break 1.4000 target 1.3880 stop 60p, Hold sell 1.4200 & 1.4270 target 1.4150 stop 1.4350.
USD-JPY
(+140p) USDJPY masih berada dalam pola uptrend channel di daily chart, meski penurunan tertahan di lower channel di 91.85, bilamana ditutup dibawah level tersebut akan memutarbalikan trend menjadi bearish target 90.35 (support line). Indikator ADX terkoreksi, stochastic crossover, MACD bearish, seharusnya mendukung peluang koreksi penurunan jika gagal ditutup diatas 95.00. Resistance berada di 95.60, support di 93.10. Buy break 95.00 target 96.50 stop 50p. Hold Sell 94.60 target 93.00. buy 93.50 target 94.60. Buy 92.60 stop 89.80.
GBP-USD
(+130p) GBP masih berada dalam uptrend channel, diikuti pola candle white opening marubozu, diikuti indikator ADX meningkat, stochastic crossing up dan MACD berada di teritorial bullish, mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas selama tidak ditutup dibawah 1.6311 (lower channel). Buy 1.6350 target 1.6550. hold sell 1.6570 target 1.6320, buy 1.6060, Sell 1.6660 target 1.6350. Sell break 1.6260 target 1.6100 stop 100p. Buy 1.6450 target 1.6600.
AUD-USD
AUD berada dalam pola uptrend channel minor dalam downtrend channel, meski pola candle white opening marubozu menunjukkan potensi technical rebound terbatas, diikuti ADX rebound, stochastic crossup, MACD masih bullish, mendukung potensi kenaikan 0.8255/0.8300, selama di bawah 0.7865. Resistance di 0.8250, support di 0.8150. Buy 0.7950 & buy 7870 target 0.8100, hold sell 0.8170 target 0.8000 & sell 0.8250 stop 0.8300. sell break 0.8090 target 0.7950.
www.universalbroker.co.id (code TF)
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Seperti perkiraan kami sejak beberapa pekan lalu, IHSG masih berpotensi melanjutkan trend kenaikan berkat positifnya faktor di dalam dan luar negeri dapat menghapus laju penurunan IHSG sejak awal tahun ini (+59% YTD hingga kemarin). Faktor positif dari dalam negeri memberikan support kepada IHSG hingga pekan depan, seperti penurunan harga komoditi di bulan Juli mendorong perkiraan penurunan inflasi RI bulan Juli memicu spekulasi penurunan suku bunga BI dari 6.75% di RDG bulan depan, penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar (target Rp 9,800/10,000) dapat mendorong aliran dana masuk ke pasar modal, perkiraan data GDP Q2 2009 Indonesia akan lebih baik dari perkiraan Menteri keuangan: 3.7% q/q (UBI memprediksi 4.0% q/q: pertumbuhan di sektor keuangan, pertambangan, transportasi dan komunikasi), perkiraan lapkeu emiten semester 1 2009 di pekan depan dapat tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan analis, isu positif dari pembagian dividen dan ekspansi sejumlah emiten (BBKP, BUMI, ADRO, INDY), serta laporan penetapan hasil Pilpres 2009 oleh KPU besok, merupakan hal-hal yang menopang kinerja IHSG hingga akhir bulan ini. Sementara faktor regional dan Wall Street (DJIA target inverted H&S di 9500) yang didukung kuatnya lapkeu emiten H1 2009, ikut mensupport IHSG.
Stock Picks: Average last 4 week +30.8%. Target 10-20%, Risk < -7%. Closing today
Hold BUY: BUMI/UNSP/ENRG/DEWA, ASII/AALI/UNTR, BMTR/MNCN/BHIT, BBRI,BMRI,BBNI,TLKM,PTBA,ITMG,INDY,ANTM,INCO,TINS,TRUB, ASIA, KIJA
Buy (average up) saham pilihan jika IHSG break 2170, close di sesi 2 (target 5%)
Stock Picks:
* GZCO buy target Rp 240
* INDY buy target Rp 3500
Global Outlook
Indeks saham regional dan AS kembali diuntungkan oleh sejumlah laporan positif dari earnings AT&T, Ebay, 3M, Ford Motor semalam, mencatat hasil lebih baik dari perkiraan, diikuti lebih baik dari perkiraan data Existng Home Sales AS bulan Juni (+3.6% menjadi 4.89 juta unit) yang mengangkat 13 saham perumahan unggulan AS dan Jobless Claims meningkat 30,000 menjadi 554,000 (tetapi continued claims anjlok 88,000 menjadi 6.225 juta orang) diikuti analis Credit Suisse yang meningkatkan rating saham global menjadi OVERWEIGHT, memberkan sentimen positif kepada kinerja indeks saham AS dan regional pada hari ini. Fakor teknikal yang uptrend jangka pendek (target DJIA 9,500, Nikkei 10,500, Hang Seng 21,000, Shanghai 3,500) ikut mendukung kinerja indeks global hingga pekan depan. Meski kekhawatiran terhadap CIT Group yang dapat mengalami kebangkrutan setelah debt swap bulan depan, dapat menahan momentum kenaikan indeks saham AS dan regional Asia dalam waktu dekat ini.
Technical Analysis:
Akhirnya IHSG berhasil ditutup diatas trendline resistance di 2,159, diikuti pola white opening marubozu (bullish continuation) dan didukung oleh pola uptrend channel (upper channel di 2,225, middle 2,178) mendekati 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement di 2,170 yang dapat melanjutkan trend kenaikan jangka pendek dan jangka menengah ke target 2,422 (76.4% FR 2838-1089), selama tidak ditutup mingguan dibawah 2,062 (trendline support). Signal penutupan diatas 2,133 (5-day MA) dan 2,102 (10- day MA), indikator ADX flat, stochastic dan MACD bullish, seharusnya masih mendukung potensi kenaikan lebih lanjut. Hitungan Elliot Wave menunjukkan perkiraan kenaikan saat ini merupakan proses wave minor 3 dalam proses impulse wave 5 dalam wave intermediate 4 / B.
Resistance: 2242.30/2223.79/2205.27/2186.76. PP 2149.73
Support : 2143.22/2124.70/2112.70/2094.18.
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2140 - 2,200)
Nikkei Futures Kontrak September (SSIU9)
Indeks Nikkei ditutup pada level tertinggi dalam 3 pekan terakhir, dipicu kenaikan saham eksportir seperti Sony Corp dan saham sejenis lainnya, menyusul pelemahan yen. Selain itu, Kyocera Corp. dan saham teknologi lainnya menguat, berkat keyakinan mengenai pembelanjaan konsumen AS menyusul laporan keuangan Apple Inc. yang solid. Indeks Nikkei .N225 ditutup menguat 69,78 poin, atau 0,72%, ke posisi 9.792,94.
Di chart daily, Nikkei mulai berada dalam trend bullish, karena masih berada dalam uptrend channel dan ditutup diatas 76.4% di 9704. Signal bullish continuation dari candle blue candle, ADX meningkat stochastic crossing up dan MACD netral, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan kenaikan lebih lanjut. Resistance di 9964 (trendline))/9860 (middle channel). Support di 9699 (lower channel)/9471 (50.0% FR). Perkiraan range hari ini 9650-9950. Rekomendasi Sell 9970 target 9670 stop 100p, sell 10100 target 9700 stp 100p. Buy 9670 target 9970 stop 100p, Buy 9580 target 9200 stop 50p. (0p)
Kospi Futures Kontrak September (KSU9)
Indeks Kospi ditutup stabil kemarin, berkat serangkaian laporan keuangan yang positif. Selain itu, penguatan saham media dan keuangan juga mendongkrak kinerja indeks. Namun, Hyundai Motor jatuh meski melaporkan kinerja keuangan yang lebih baik dari prediksi. Indeks Kospi .KS11 ditutup hanya naik 2,45 poin, atau 0,16%, ke posisi 1.496,49, setelah sempat menyentuh level psikologi 1.500, untuk kali pertama sejak September 2008.
Dalam chart daily, indeks masih berada di bawah trendline dalam pola ascending triangle dalam uptrend channel didukung pola candle doji star dengan spike low (potensi bearish reversal). Kondisi stochastic crossing up, MACD bullish dan ADX trending up, seharusnya masih mendorong perkiraan kenaikan lebih lanjut. Resistance berada di 197.80/200.80. Support di 193.30/190.90. Rekomendasi Sell break 193.00 & 190.90 target 186.00 stop 100p, buy 190.00 target 195.00, sell break 185.50 target 183.00. Sell 197.80/200 target 190.00 stop 100p. (+140p)
Hang Seng Futures Kontrak Juli (HSIN9)
Indeks Hang Seng mengakhiri perdagangan hari ini menguat 2,96%, mengikuti kenaikan bursa saham regional menyusul optimisme pelaku pasar terhadap baiknya data ekonomi AS maupun Cina, serta serangkaian laporan keuangan korporasi. Penguatan indeks Hang Seng dipicu oleh saham-saham keuangan dan energi. Indeks Hang Seng .HSI ditutup melonjak 569,53 poin, atau 2,96%, ke posisi 19.817.70.
Dalam chart daily, indeks berada dalam pola uptrend channel dalam formasi bullish broadening , didukung pola candle mat hold (bullish reversal), ADX meningkat, stochastic golden cross, MACD bearish divergence seharusnya dukung potensi bullish reversal. Resistance di 20030 (trendline dalam formasi broadening)/20180. Support 19230/19480. Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan wave koreksi v (akhir) dalam subwave motive (3) cycle B. Rekomendasi : Sell 201O0 & 20020 target 19700 (or closing) stop 150 p. Sell 19200 target 18950. Buy 19.000 target 19500. sell break 18900 target 18460. buy break 20040 target Sell 20700 target 20000 stop 100p. (+220-100+90p)
Technical Analysis
EUR-USD
Breakoutnya pola symmetrical triangle kembali menunjukkan indikasi bullish continuation, diikuti pola uptrend channel, didukung oleh indikator ADX naik, stochastic crossing up dan MACD bullish, seharusnya masih mendukung perkiraan kenaikan hari ini. Support berada di 1.4175 (middle channel)/1.4100 (upper channel), Resistance berada di 1.4300/1.4370. Euro berada di dalam wave proses iii dalam wave 3 zig zag, untuk target $ 1.4277, selama tidak mencapai dibawah 1.4020. Buy 1.4150 & buy 1.4070 target 1.4200, sell break 1.4000 target 1.3880 stop 60p, Hold sell 1.4200 & 1.4270 target 1.4150 stop 1.4350.
USD-JPY
(+140p) USDJPY masih berada dalam pola uptrend channel di daily chart, meski penurunan tertahan di lower channel di 91.85, bilamana ditutup dibawah level tersebut akan memutarbalikan trend menjadi bearish target 90.35 (support line). Indikator ADX terkoreksi, stochastic crossover, MACD bearish, seharusnya mendukung peluang koreksi penurunan jika gagal ditutup diatas 95.00. Resistance berada di 95.60, support di 93.10. Buy break 95.00 target 96.50 stop 50p. Hold Sell 94.60 target 93.00. buy 93.50 target 94.60. Buy 92.60 stop 89.80.
GBP-USD
(+130p) GBP masih berada dalam uptrend channel, diikuti pola candle white opening marubozu, diikuti indikator ADX meningkat, stochastic crossing up dan MACD berada di teritorial bullish, mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas selama tidak ditutup dibawah 1.6311 (lower channel). Buy 1.6350 target 1.6550. hold sell 1.6570 target 1.6320, buy 1.6060, Sell 1.6660 target 1.6350. Sell break 1.6260 target 1.6100 stop 100p. Buy 1.6450 target 1.6600.
AUD-USD
AUD berada dalam pola uptrend channel minor dalam downtrend channel, meski pola candle white opening marubozu menunjukkan potensi technical rebound terbatas, diikuti ADX rebound, stochastic crossup, MACD masih bullish, mendukung potensi kenaikan 0.8255/0.8300, selama di bawah 0.7865. Resistance di 0.8250, support di 0.8150. Buy 0.7950 & buy 7870 target 0.8100, hold sell 0.8170 target 0.8000 & sell 0.8250 stop 0.8300. sell break 0.8090 target 0.7950.
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Stock Market Bulls Try To Take It Up A Notch
By: Chris_Ciovacco
Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe financial markets have done a good job of forecasting the slow improvements we have seen in the economic numbers in recent weeks. Even though the economy remains weak, we cannot ignore the steady stream of incremental improvements in the economic data. For example leading economic indicators (LEIs) have increased for three consecutive months. In the June report from the Conference Board , seven of the ten LEI components showed positive improvement.
Since the lows in March of 2009, LEIs have risen 3.1%. As we touch on below, the markets are reflecting the economy’s gradual move off the deck and away from the financial Armageddon scenario. Based on the information at hand, we currently have positive alignment of the fundamentals (they are improving) and the technicals, which results in a more favorable risk-reward climate. The concept of fundamental and technical alignment is covered in more detail in this August 2008 article.
As globalization continues to flatten the world, markets seem to be taking cues from each other on an ever increasing scale. Ultimately, it all comes down to alternating periods between acceptance of risk and risk aversion. Consequently, when markets reach potential forks in the road, the outcomes tend to all go the same way – either risk wins or risk aversion wins. Numerous markets and assets classes are at possible forks in the road. Many of the setups paint a potentially bullish picture (in some cases very bullish). However, it is possible risk aversion could win out over acceptance of risk. Our job is not to forecast but to observe with an open mind. Below we present a few charts which are currently at forks in the road. Like the charts below, most markets seem to be leaning toward the bullish fork, but breakouts and bullish setups often fail. Bullish outcomes would make us more likely to invest additional capital. Bearish outcomes will cause us to remain patient for now. We should have some answers very soon.
Chinese stocks have provided leadership for all risk assets as markets attempt to complete the transition from a bear market to a bull market. This week’s new high in Chinese stocks, if it holds, could indicate that risk assets are ready for another leg higher. If the breakout fails, it would be a negative for all risk assets in the shorter-term. We should know in the outcome in a few days. All charts are weekly.
Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe financial markets have done a good job of forecasting the slow improvements we have seen in the economic numbers in recent weeks. Even though the economy remains weak, we cannot ignore the steady stream of incremental improvements in the economic data. For example leading economic indicators (LEIs) have increased for three consecutive months. In the June report from the Conference Board , seven of the ten LEI components showed positive improvement.
Since the lows in March of 2009, LEIs have risen 3.1%. As we touch on below, the markets are reflecting the economy’s gradual move off the deck and away from the financial Armageddon scenario. Based on the information at hand, we currently have positive alignment of the fundamentals (they are improving) and the technicals, which results in a more favorable risk-reward climate. The concept of fundamental and technical alignment is covered in more detail in this August 2008 article.
As globalization continues to flatten the world, markets seem to be taking cues from each other on an ever increasing scale. Ultimately, it all comes down to alternating periods between acceptance of risk and risk aversion. Consequently, when markets reach potential forks in the road, the outcomes tend to all go the same way – either risk wins or risk aversion wins. Numerous markets and assets classes are at possible forks in the road. Many of the setups paint a potentially bullish picture (in some cases very bullish). However, it is possible risk aversion could win out over acceptance of risk. Our job is not to forecast but to observe with an open mind. Below we present a few charts which are currently at forks in the road. Like the charts below, most markets seem to be leaning toward the bullish fork, but breakouts and bullish setups often fail. Bullish outcomes would make us more likely to invest additional capital. Bearish outcomes will cause us to remain patient for now. We should have some answers very soon.
Chinese stocks have provided leadership for all risk assets as markets attempt to complete the transition from a bear market to a bull market. This week’s new high in Chinese stocks, if it holds, could indicate that risk assets are ready for another leg higher. If the breakout fails, it would be a negative for all risk assets in the shorter-term. We should know in the outcome in a few days. All charts are weekly.
Daily Technical Analysis Forex/DJIA/Gold
Daily Forex Technicals |
EURUSD
Comment: Consolidating neatly in a tiny 'triangle' at the top of this year's trading range. It is just a matter of time before it breaks higher, with a weekly close clearly above 1.4200 essential to confirm an upside break. Implied volatility should then pick up.Strategy: Buy at 1.4235/1.4200; stop well below 1.4140. Short term target 1.4275, then this year's high at 1.4339, a lot more later on.Direction of Trade: →↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.4199 " 1.4258
1.4155 1.4278*
1.4095 1.43
1.4040* 1.4339*
1.4 1.435
GBPUSD
Comment: Using microscopic Technical Analysis through rose-tinted spectacles as Cable hovers at the upper edge of a 'triangle' formation one can see that yesterday's price action is a 'doji' with a 'spike low' proving that we are looking for direction and that a break higher is likely. If not today, then hopefully a weekly close above 1.6600 should kick-start a decent rally.Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6365; stop below 1.6155. First target 1.6550 then 1.6600/1.6650.
Direction of Trade: →↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.6380 " 1.6506
1.6311 1.656
1.6266 1.6587
1.6187 1.6625
1.6155 1.6745
USDJPY
Comment: Still struggling either side of a sort of 'neckline', consolidating below the 38% Fibonacci resistance and between the 9 and 26-day moving averages. Allow for a little more consolidation above yesterday's low at 93.09 this morning and maybe all day. A drop below 93.00 adds considerable downside pressure, dragging Yen crosses lower, and a weekly close below 93.50 might add a little bearish pressure.
Strategy: Attempt shorts at 94.20/94.45; stop above 94.85. Add to shorts on a sustained break below 93.75 for 93.25, more next week.Direction of Trade: →↘
Support Resistance
93.75 " 94.33/94.46
93.25/93.09* 94.68
92.7 94.80*
92.4 95
92.25 91.70** 95.5
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex | Jul 23 09 06:34 GMT |
Gold :Gold is hvering around $ 950 favouring bullishness in the commodity. We prefer no buys for the time being since we still feel its in a consolidation phase and a fall cannot be ruled out.(Gold- $952.83). Neutral
Dollar Index :Dollar index is still a range bound with slight downward pressure . We strongly feel that a constant hold below 79.35 support will only turn the outlook short term bearish till 77.70 levels. (Dollar Index - 78.70) Slightly Bearish
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade | Jul 23 09 04:13 GMT |
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 8794.40, 8730.27 and 8696.30(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8677.37, where correction also can be. Then follows 8635.43 Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8606.00. Continuation will bring 8550.30.Today's resistance: - 8932.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8943.06, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8976.50, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 9003.60. Continuation would bring 9014.26 and 9027.13.
EURUSD
Comment: Consolidating neatly in a tiny 'triangle' at the top of this year's trading range. It is just a matter of time before it breaks higher, with a weekly close clearly above 1.4200 essential to confirm an upside break. Implied volatility should then pick up.Strategy: Buy at 1.4235/1.4200; stop well below 1.4140. Short term target 1.4275, then this year's high at 1.4339, a lot more later on.Direction of Trade: →↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.4199 " 1.4258
1.4155 1.4278*
1.4095 1.43
1.4040* 1.4339*
1.4 1.435
GBPUSD
Comment: Using microscopic Technical Analysis through rose-tinted spectacles as Cable hovers at the upper edge of a 'triangle' formation one can see that yesterday's price action is a 'doji' with a 'spike low' proving that we are looking for direction and that a break higher is likely. If not today, then hopefully a weekly close above 1.6600 should kick-start a decent rally.Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6365; stop below 1.6155. First target 1.6550 then 1.6600/1.6650.
Direction of Trade: →↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.6380 " 1.6506
1.6311 1.656
1.6266 1.6587
1.6187 1.6625
1.6155 1.6745
USDJPY
Comment: Still struggling either side of a sort of 'neckline', consolidating below the 38% Fibonacci resistance and between the 9 and 26-day moving averages. Allow for a little more consolidation above yesterday's low at 93.09 this morning and maybe all day. A drop below 93.00 adds considerable downside pressure, dragging Yen crosses lower, and a weekly close below 93.50 might add a little bearish pressure.
Strategy: Attempt shorts at 94.20/94.45; stop above 94.85. Add to shorts on a sustained break below 93.75 for 93.25, more next week.Direction of Trade: →↘
Support Resistance
93.75 " 94.33/94.46
93.25/93.09* 94.68
92.7 94.80*
92.4 95
92.25 91.70** 95.5
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex | Jul 23 09 06:34 GMT |
Gold :Gold is hvering around $ 950 favouring bullishness in the commodity. We prefer no buys for the time being since we still feel its in a consolidation phase and a fall cannot be ruled out.(Gold- $952.83). Neutral
Dollar Index :Dollar index is still a range bound with slight downward pressure . We strongly feel that a constant hold below 79.35 support will only turn the outlook short term bearish till 77.70 levels. (Dollar Index - 78.70) Slightly Bearish
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade | Jul 23 09 04:13 GMT |
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 8794.40, 8730.27 and 8696.30(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8677.37, where correction also can be. Then follows 8635.43 Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8606.00. Continuation will bring 8550.30.Today's resistance: - 8932.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8943.06, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8976.50, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 9003.60. Continuation would bring 9014.26 and 9027.13.
Follow Up To Japanese ETF’s
By Guy Lerner on July 23, 2009
I have been watching the i-Shares MSCI Japan Index Fund (symbol: EWJ) for about 6 months now. On a pure technical basis this ETF, which tracks the MSCI Japan Index, has a high likelihood to move higher over the next 12 months.Here’s the setup in this monthly chart of the EWJ. See figure 1. The “next big thing” indicator is in the lower panel, and this indicator looks for those technical characteristics typically seen at market bottoms prior to changes in the secular trend. The indicator is now in the zone where we would expect a secular trend change to occur. With a close over the simple 10 month moving average, this is the technical confirmation that we expect a trend change from down to up to occur.
Figure 1. EWJ/ monthly
For example, let’s design two studies utilizing the EWJ ETF. In study #1, we will buy when prices close above the simple 10 month moving average and sell when prices close below the 10 month moving average. Entries and exits are based upon monthly closes only.Since 1991, such a strategy has yielded 6.23 EWJ points; buy and hold has netted a negative 3.75 points. There were 16 trades of which 37.5% were profitable; this is typical of a pure trend following strategy as there are a lot of little losers and several big winners. Your time in the market was 46%. The RINA Index, which is a measure of points gained, draw down and time in the market, was a lowish 24. Think of the RINA Index as measuring trade efficiency.
In study #2, we will only take those entries in the EWJ when the “next big thing” indicator is in the zone that suggests a trend change is likely and when prices close above the simple 10 month moving average. In this instance, the “next big thing” indicator is acting as a filter to screen out market noise. Our exit strategy remains the same.
Since 1995, study #2 yielded 8.57 EWJ points; buy and hold netted a negative 5.75 points. We have reduced our total trades to 6 and increased our percentage of winners to 67%. Time in the market was reduced to 33% as well. Our RINA Index, our measure of trade efficiency, increased almost 4 fold to 96. Of note the average trade from this strategy lasts about 11 months.Similar results are also achieved with a tactical strategy that trades the Japan Smaller Capitalization Fund (symbol: JOF). See figure 2, a monthly chart of the JOF with the “next big thing” indicator in the lower panel.
Figure 2. JOF/ monthly
Let’s apply strategy #1, our pure moving average strategy as noted above, to the JOF. Since 1991, such a strategy has yielded 1 JOF point; buy and hold was a negative 5 points. There were 16 trades of which 25% were profitable, and your time in the market was 36%. The RINA Index was a very poor 2.6.In strategy #2, we are a little more tactical as we added the “next big thing” filter. The results are good and much improved over the pure moving average strategy (i.e., strategy #1). Since 1995, such a strategy produced 7 JOF points; buy and hold yielded negative 2 points. There were 7 trades (v. 16 from strategy #1) of which only 29% were profitable. Time in the market was reduced to 24%. The RINA Index improved over 20 fold, and this measure of trade efficiency is 62. Once again, using the “next big thing” indicator as a filter improves the efficiency of a simple moving average trading system.
So let’s summarize this technical set up. In the EWJ and JOF, the “next big thing” indicator suggests a high likelihood of a secular trend change, and combining this filter with a popular moving average model has improved the efficiency of this pure trend following method alone.
I have been watching the i-Shares MSCI Japan Index Fund (symbol: EWJ) for about 6 months now. On a pure technical basis this ETF, which tracks the MSCI Japan Index, has a high likelihood to move higher over the next 12 months.Here’s the setup in this monthly chart of the EWJ. See figure 1. The “next big thing” indicator is in the lower panel, and this indicator looks for those technical characteristics typically seen at market bottoms prior to changes in the secular trend. The indicator is now in the zone where we would expect a secular trend change to occur. With a close over the simple 10 month moving average, this is the technical confirmation that we expect a trend change from down to up to occur.
Figure 1. EWJ/ monthly
For example, let’s design two studies utilizing the EWJ ETF. In study #1, we will buy when prices close above the simple 10 month moving average and sell when prices close below the 10 month moving average. Entries and exits are based upon monthly closes only.Since 1991, such a strategy has yielded 6.23 EWJ points; buy and hold has netted a negative 3.75 points. There were 16 trades of which 37.5% were profitable; this is typical of a pure trend following strategy as there are a lot of little losers and several big winners. Your time in the market was 46%. The RINA Index, which is a measure of points gained, draw down and time in the market, was a lowish 24. Think of the RINA Index as measuring trade efficiency.
In study #2, we will only take those entries in the EWJ when the “next big thing” indicator is in the zone that suggests a trend change is likely and when prices close above the simple 10 month moving average. In this instance, the “next big thing” indicator is acting as a filter to screen out market noise. Our exit strategy remains the same.
Since 1995, study #2 yielded 8.57 EWJ points; buy and hold netted a negative 5.75 points. We have reduced our total trades to 6 and increased our percentage of winners to 67%. Time in the market was reduced to 33% as well. Our RINA Index, our measure of trade efficiency, increased almost 4 fold to 96. Of note the average trade from this strategy lasts about 11 months.Similar results are also achieved with a tactical strategy that trades the Japan Smaller Capitalization Fund (symbol: JOF). See figure 2, a monthly chart of the JOF with the “next big thing” indicator in the lower panel.
Figure 2. JOF/ monthly
Let’s apply strategy #1, our pure moving average strategy as noted above, to the JOF. Since 1991, such a strategy has yielded 1 JOF point; buy and hold was a negative 5 points. There were 16 trades of which 25% were profitable, and your time in the market was 36%. The RINA Index was a very poor 2.6.In strategy #2, we are a little more tactical as we added the “next big thing” filter. The results are good and much improved over the pure moving average strategy (i.e., strategy #1). Since 1995, such a strategy produced 7 JOF points; buy and hold yielded negative 2 points. There were 7 trades (v. 16 from strategy #1) of which only 29% were profitable. Time in the market was reduced to 24%. The RINA Index improved over 20 fold, and this measure of trade efficiency is 62. Once again, using the “next big thing” indicator as a filter improves the efficiency of a simple moving average trading system.
So let’s summarize this technical set up. In the EWJ and JOF, the “next big thing” indicator suggests a high likelihood of a secular trend change, and combining this filter with a popular moving average model has improved the efficiency of this pure trend following method alone.
Investing In Commodities: How To Buy Gold During Secular Market Cycles
By Investment U on July 23, 2009 | More Posts By Investment U | Author's Website
Editor’s Note: With the incredible amount of interest in buying gold and investing in commodities, we’ve turned to Money Morning commodities expert Peter Krauth to give us an idea on where we are in regards to their historic cycles and how investors can take advantage of where we are right now…There’s never been a better time to begin investing in commodities.That’s a very simple statement, but it’s backed by three powerful points:
* Commodities tend to do well when more popular investments (with retail investors) are doing poorly, and when economic conditions are less than ideal.
* When the typical economic underpinnings are at play, a “Secular Bull Market” for commodities tends to last for about 17 years. And right now, the underpinnings are far from typical - and may even be exemplary, meaning this bull-market run could last a lot longer than the norm.
* And last, but not least, we’re only about nine years into this commodities bull market, meaning that there’s probably a lot more room to run - maybe eight years, and very like even more.
Amazingly, this powerful notion of the “Secular Market Cycle” - despite its tremendous profit potential - is largely unknown to the investment masses, and is rarely discussed by the mainstream business news media. Indeed, it’s so taken for granted that it’s almost a market secret…If you’re a long-term investor, however, you’ll ultimately realize it’s one of the most lucrative strategies you have in your investing arsenal. And most amazing of all is that it’s easy to understand, easy to deploy and easy to profit from.
Let me explain.
Investing in Commodities & The Secret of the Secular Market Cycle
Why is this commodity investing strategy so special? Well, with a finite time to invest for your retirement, it’s crucial to recognize and understand what we like to refer to as the “Secular Market Cycle,” or “Secular Cycle,” for short.As the chart shows, a Secular Cycle, from peak to trough, typically lasts about 17 to 20 years on average (the period depicted by the chart ends in 2004, but still perfectly illustrates our concept).
Investing in Commodities - The Current Secular Market Cycle
And there are essentially two types of cycles:
* The “Secular Bull Cycle,” during which regular stocks increase in value, and have their Price/Earnings (P/E) ratios (earnings multiples) expand. That means that stocks get more expensive.
* And the “Secular Bear Cycle,” during which stocks tend to experience a decline in both price and valuation, with P/Es that contract. At best, stock prices move sideways over an extended period, but still see their P/E multiples shrink, since corporate earnings are growing at a time when stock prices are stagnant.
For investors, one key problem is that an overall “Secular Cycle,” from trough to peak and back to trough, can take 35 years. That’s a big chunk of a person’s wage-earning years, meaning there’s little room for missteps.
Now, there’s no point in fighting a secular market trend - not if you want your investments to grow.
So it’s essential to determine where we are in the cycle, because that will dictate expected returns over the following decade or two. And since most people only spend about 40 years of their lives investing for retirement, not knowing about the “Secular Cycle” - much less where we are right now in the cycle - leads to guesswork, mistakes and losses, instead of the clear planning that will generate the best investment decisions and, ultimately, the biggest profits.
The last commodity cycle ended around 1980. Essentially, a prolonged period of high commodity prices encouraged producers to over-develop their resources. Demand never fell off. Instead, there was a massive oversupply, and the commodities party eventually ended. Prices got pushed off a cliff, so the entire sector became lean in a hurry as profit margins imploded.We now know how long a typical Secular Bull or Bear market will last years. We also know that the last Secular Commodity Bull was launched roughly around 2000. That allows us to conclude that we’ve easily got between eight and 11 years to go before supply catches up with the burgeoning global demand that we’re seeing right now.
Investing in Commodities - Profit Plays to Consider Now
With class over, it’s time to put your newfound insights to work, searching out ways to earn the outsized profits that will be available from the Secular Bull Market for investing in commodities.If you prefer individual stocks, you have to get to know BHP Billiton Ltd. ADR (BHP: 59.42 -0.14 -0.24%). This $140 billion resources behemoth is the largest diversified mining company on earth. With an enviable balance sheet and cash flow, this producer of base metals, precious metals, diamonds and energy is way ahead of the pack. With a current P/E of 11.66, the stock isn’t bargain-basement cheap, but it still represents a good value. Besides, this is a stock that you’ll want to hold all the way to the very end of the Secular Cycle.
Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and exchange-traded notes (ETNs), on the other hand, provide investors with more direct exposure to commodity prices, as opposed to exposure to the stocks of the commodity-producing companies.
Finally, you’d be wise to get some gold exposure, too - gold miners can also be an excellent hedge against inflationary pressures.
In this case, the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) - composed chiefly of major gold miners - offers both company and geographical diversification, while including substantial leverage to the price of gold. GDX is based on the AMEX Gold BUGS Index (HUI: 0.00 N/A N/A), which represents a portfolio of 15 major gold mining companies that do not hedge their gold production beyond a year and a half.In the next couple of years, as U.S. and overseas economies recover, commodities producers will pay the price for recent major cuts in production, development and exploration - discovering it will be very tough to boost output even as global demand soars.Shrewd investors will reap the benefit of those decisions: Those shortages will persist, providing quite a tailwind for soaring prices.Just make sure that your sails are fully deployed.The bottom line: As you go about rebalancing your portfolio - or continue rebuilding it as a result of the financial-crisis carnage - make sure to include room for a solid natural resources allocation.
Editor’s Note: With the incredible amount of interest in buying gold and investing in commodities, we’ve turned to Money Morning commodities expert Peter Krauth to give us an idea on where we are in regards to their historic cycles and how investors can take advantage of where we are right now…There’s never been a better time to begin investing in commodities.That’s a very simple statement, but it’s backed by three powerful points:
* Commodities tend to do well when more popular investments (with retail investors) are doing poorly, and when economic conditions are less than ideal.
* When the typical economic underpinnings are at play, a “Secular Bull Market” for commodities tends to last for about 17 years. And right now, the underpinnings are far from typical - and may even be exemplary, meaning this bull-market run could last a lot longer than the norm.
* And last, but not least, we’re only about nine years into this commodities bull market, meaning that there’s probably a lot more room to run - maybe eight years, and very like even more.
Amazingly, this powerful notion of the “Secular Market Cycle” - despite its tremendous profit potential - is largely unknown to the investment masses, and is rarely discussed by the mainstream business news media. Indeed, it’s so taken for granted that it’s almost a market secret…If you’re a long-term investor, however, you’ll ultimately realize it’s one of the most lucrative strategies you have in your investing arsenal. And most amazing of all is that it’s easy to understand, easy to deploy and easy to profit from.
Let me explain.
Investing in Commodities & The Secret of the Secular Market Cycle
Why is this commodity investing strategy so special? Well, with a finite time to invest for your retirement, it’s crucial to recognize and understand what we like to refer to as the “Secular Market Cycle,” or “Secular Cycle,” for short.As the chart shows, a Secular Cycle, from peak to trough, typically lasts about 17 to 20 years on average (the period depicted by the chart ends in 2004, but still perfectly illustrates our concept).
Investing in Commodities - The Current Secular Market Cycle
And there are essentially two types of cycles:
* The “Secular Bull Cycle,” during which regular stocks increase in value, and have their Price/Earnings (P/E) ratios (earnings multiples) expand. That means that stocks get more expensive.
* And the “Secular Bear Cycle,” during which stocks tend to experience a decline in both price and valuation, with P/Es that contract. At best, stock prices move sideways over an extended period, but still see their P/E multiples shrink, since corporate earnings are growing at a time when stock prices are stagnant.
For investors, one key problem is that an overall “Secular Cycle,” from trough to peak and back to trough, can take 35 years. That’s a big chunk of a person’s wage-earning years, meaning there’s little room for missteps.
Now, there’s no point in fighting a secular market trend - not if you want your investments to grow.
So it’s essential to determine where we are in the cycle, because that will dictate expected returns over the following decade or two. And since most people only spend about 40 years of their lives investing for retirement, not knowing about the “Secular Cycle” - much less where we are right now in the cycle - leads to guesswork, mistakes and losses, instead of the clear planning that will generate the best investment decisions and, ultimately, the biggest profits.
The last commodity cycle ended around 1980. Essentially, a prolonged period of high commodity prices encouraged producers to over-develop their resources. Demand never fell off. Instead, there was a massive oversupply, and the commodities party eventually ended. Prices got pushed off a cliff, so the entire sector became lean in a hurry as profit margins imploded.We now know how long a typical Secular Bull or Bear market will last years. We also know that the last Secular Commodity Bull was launched roughly around 2000. That allows us to conclude that we’ve easily got between eight and 11 years to go before supply catches up with the burgeoning global demand that we’re seeing right now.
Investing in Commodities - Profit Plays to Consider Now
With class over, it’s time to put your newfound insights to work, searching out ways to earn the outsized profits that will be available from the Secular Bull Market for investing in commodities.If you prefer individual stocks, you have to get to know BHP Billiton Ltd. ADR (BHP: 59.42 -0.14 -0.24%). This $140 billion resources behemoth is the largest diversified mining company on earth. With an enviable balance sheet and cash flow, this producer of base metals, precious metals, diamonds and energy is way ahead of the pack. With a current P/E of 11.66, the stock isn’t bargain-basement cheap, but it still represents a good value. Besides, this is a stock that you’ll want to hold all the way to the very end of the Secular Cycle.
Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and exchange-traded notes (ETNs), on the other hand, provide investors with more direct exposure to commodity prices, as opposed to exposure to the stocks of the commodity-producing companies.
Finally, you’d be wise to get some gold exposure, too - gold miners can also be an excellent hedge against inflationary pressures.
In this case, the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) - composed chiefly of major gold miners - offers both company and geographical diversification, while including substantial leverage to the price of gold. GDX is based on the AMEX Gold BUGS Index (HUI: 0.00 N/A N/A), which represents a portfolio of 15 major gold mining companies that do not hedge their gold production beyond a year and a half.In the next couple of years, as U.S. and overseas economies recover, commodities producers will pay the price for recent major cuts in production, development and exploration - discovering it will be very tough to boost output even as global demand soars.Shrewd investors will reap the benefit of those decisions: Those shortages will persist, providing quite a tailwind for soaring prices.Just make sure that your sails are fully deployed.The bottom line: As you go about rebalancing your portfolio - or continue rebuilding it as a result of the financial-crisis carnage - make sure to include room for a solid natural resources allocation.
Double Divergence And Resistance In The S&P 500
By Corey Rosenbloom on July 23, 2009
Structurally, after the recent rally from the 875 lows, the S&P 500 is challenging possible resistance at the 955 level which comes from both the January and June 2009 highs. We’re also picking up an internal negative momentum divergence along with a TICK (high) divergence at these levels which should call our attention. Let’s look at the structure.Let me begin by saying there’s absolutely no guarantee price will inflect downwards off these levels, but due to these developments, it would seem that risk is to the upside and opportunity might be to the downside.As price swung upwards off a clean positive momentum divergence into the July 8th lows, we had a new TICK High of 1,400, which was a first sign of strength. As price swung back to form a higher low - complete with 60min dojis at those lows - we then began the large momentum move up that we see to this day.
However, the momentum may be trailing off as the 3/10 Oscillator is showing divergences (which isn’t as significant as the TICK divergences - oscillators can give false overbought readings on a powerful up-move).More importantly, the TICK is showing internal divergences with the daily high TICK reading as price has continued higher - both of these serve as non-confirmations of the recent highs.Now that price has come into prior resistance - which also reflects roughly the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the May 2008 highs to the March 2009 lows - odds have shifted to favor a downside move, or at least a low-risk (stop slightly above the highs), high-reward trade opportunity.
Structurally, after the recent rally from the 875 lows, the S&P 500 is challenging possible resistance at the 955 level which comes from both the January and June 2009 highs. We’re also picking up an internal negative momentum divergence along with a TICK (high) divergence at these levels which should call our attention. Let’s look at the structure.Let me begin by saying there’s absolutely no guarantee price will inflect downwards off these levels, but due to these developments, it would seem that risk is to the upside and opportunity might be to the downside.As price swung upwards off a clean positive momentum divergence into the July 8th lows, we had a new TICK High of 1,400, which was a first sign of strength. As price swung back to form a higher low - complete with 60min dojis at those lows - we then began the large momentum move up that we see to this day.
However, the momentum may be trailing off as the 3/10 Oscillator is showing divergences (which isn’t as significant as the TICK divergences - oscillators can give false overbought readings on a powerful up-move).More importantly, the TICK is showing internal divergences with the daily high TICK reading as price has continued higher - both of these serve as non-confirmations of the recent highs.Now that price has come into prior resistance - which also reflects roughly the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the May 2008 highs to the March 2009 lows - odds have shifted to favor a downside move, or at least a low-risk (stop slightly above the highs), high-reward trade opportunity.
Is Fraud Really Bubbling?
By Michael Panzner on July 23, 2009
As any savvy investor might, the first thing you should ask yourself when you come across or analyze an interesting data series is to try and figure out whether it is describing the past or hinting at the future.Some economic indicators, like the unemployment rate, for example, have not been particularly helpful when it comes to identifying turning points in the economy.One reason is because hiring and firing staff can have serious consequences for any business, and the point at which such decisions are made often comes when employers are forced — or absolutely convinced they need — to take drastic action.
However, as with the financial markets, that highly-charged moment when a lot of people are doing the same thing often represents the point at which much of the news — whether good or bad — has been factored in and a reversal is near.There are other reasons, of course, why apparent trends aren’t necessarily predictive in nature. In my view, one example likely includes the accelerating pace of growth of allegations of financial miscreancy detailed in the Economist article that follows, “Fraud Reporting.”While it is certainly possible that criminal activities of this sort are burgeoning, based on past history, at least, I reckon that a heightened focus by law enforcement agencies on financial chicanery, fears about the health of markets and the economy, and a generalized loss of trust in the wake of last fall’s meltdown and the Madoff affair are probably the real reasons for the surge.
Given what’s happened so far, one would naturally expect that more longstanding frauds would suddenly be exposed because time or the money has run out, while paranoia and uncertainty is probably spurring many individuals to suspect the worse in their various dealings with others.
I guess we’ll know soon enough.
The rise in financial crime in America
Over 730,000 counts of suspected financial wrongoing were recorded in America last year, according to recent data from the Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network. Institutions such as banks, insurers and casinos are required by law to report suspicious activities to federal authorities under 20 categories. Financial institutions filed nearly 13% more reports of fraud compared with 2007, accounting for almost half of the increase in total filings. The number of mortgage frauds alone rose by 23% to almost 65,000. But not all categories saw an increase: incidents suspected terrorist financing fell. Just under half of all filings are related to money laundering, a proportion that is little changed in over a decade.
Shutterstock
As any savvy investor might, the first thing you should ask yourself when you come across or analyze an interesting data series is to try and figure out whether it is describing the past or hinting at the future.Some economic indicators, like the unemployment rate, for example, have not been particularly helpful when it comes to identifying turning points in the economy.One reason is because hiring and firing staff can have serious consequences for any business, and the point at which such decisions are made often comes when employers are forced — or absolutely convinced they need — to take drastic action.
However, as with the financial markets, that highly-charged moment when a lot of people are doing the same thing often represents the point at which much of the news — whether good or bad — has been factored in and a reversal is near.There are other reasons, of course, why apparent trends aren’t necessarily predictive in nature. In my view, one example likely includes the accelerating pace of growth of allegations of financial miscreancy detailed in the Economist article that follows, “Fraud Reporting.”While it is certainly possible that criminal activities of this sort are burgeoning, based on past history, at least, I reckon that a heightened focus by law enforcement agencies on financial chicanery, fears about the health of markets and the economy, and a generalized loss of trust in the wake of last fall’s meltdown and the Madoff affair are probably the real reasons for the surge.
Given what’s happened so far, one would naturally expect that more longstanding frauds would suddenly be exposed because time or the money has run out, while paranoia and uncertainty is probably spurring many individuals to suspect the worse in their various dealings with others.
I guess we’ll know soon enough.
The rise in financial crime in America
Over 730,000 counts of suspected financial wrongoing were recorded in America last year, according to recent data from the Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network. Institutions such as banks, insurers and casinos are required by law to report suspicious activities to federal authorities under 20 categories. Financial institutions filed nearly 13% more reports of fraud compared with 2007, accounting for almost half of the increase in total filings. The number of mortgage frauds alone rose by 23% to almost 65,000. But not all categories saw an increase: incidents suspected terrorist financing fell. Just under half of all filings are related to money laundering, a proportion that is little changed in over a decade.
Shutterstock
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
Potensi Penurunan IHSG Terbatas, Support Dari Pola Uptrend Channel
IHSG Outlook
Ind P/E (x)
EPS
Y/Y Y/Y Suku Bunga* Inflasi*
Y/Y GDP*
Y/Y
IHSG 13.3 8% -3.16% 6.75% 3.65% 4.4%
STI 19.8 16% -26.4% 0.69% -0.70% -10.1%
KLCI 13.8 10% -10.6% 2.0% 3.00% -6.2%
SET 12.7 4% -25.2% 1.25% -3.30% -7.10%
SSE 35.8 36% +2.5% 5.31% -1.40% 7.9%
N225 43.4 -1% -32.4% 0.10% -0.10% -9.7%
HSI 22.8 19% -22.7% 0.50% 0.60% -7.80%
DJIA 14.5 3% -29.5% 0.25% -1.4% -2.5%
* Negara Bersangkutan
Momentum kenaikan IHSG positif, meski terjadi aksi profit-taking kemarin, IHSG diperkirakan masih dapat melanjutkan trend kenaikan jangka pendek hingga akhir pekan ini, karena masih disupport oleh sejumlah sentimen positif dari kuatnya fundamental ekonomi RI dari masih positifnya pandangan sejumlah institusi asing paska teror bom Mega Kuningan, rupiah masih bertahan di kisaran Rp 10,000 terhadap dolar dan rencana penerbitan ORI seri 006 dengan kupon obligasi 9.35%/tahun tenor 3 tahun dalam waktu dekat, dapat mendorong aliran dana masuk dari investor asing, dapat menopang kinerja IHSG di pekan ini. Sementara pernyataan Bank Indonesia bahwa premi resiko gagal bayar perbankan (Credit Default Swap/CDS) Indonesia dibawah 300 basis poin justru membaik paska teror bom Mega Kuningan diikuti pernyataan dari Menteri Keuangan Sri Mulyani yang menjamin kondisi perekonnomian paska teror bom di kawasan Mega Kuningan, serat spekulasi penurunan inflasi bulan Juli dapat mendorong penurunan suku bunga BI di bulan Agustus, masih memberikan support kepada IHSG (Saham perbankan, infrastruktur, property, aneka industri). Potensi kenaikan harga komoditi (inventory minyak anjlok 1.8 juta barel di pekan lalu, target $67-70), seharusnya dapat angkat IHSG lebih lanjut.
Stock Picks: Average last 4 week +30.8%. Target 10-20%, Risk < -7%
Hold BUY: BUMI/UNSP/ENRG/DEWA, ASII/AALI/UNTR, BMTR/MNCN/BHIT, BBRI,BMRI,BBNI,TLKM,PTBA,ITMG,INDY,ANTM,INCO,TINS,TRUB, ASIA, KIJA
Stock Picks:
* JPRS overweight target Rp 450
* KIJA buy target Rp 140
Global Outlook
Munculnya kekhawatiran krisis perbankan global dan memburuknya ekonomi Eropa, dapat menahan momentum kenaikan indeks saham regional AS dan Wall Street, dimana sejak pekan lalu mendapatkan keuntungan dari positifnya data ekonomi AS (Retai Sales, Housing) dan earnings (JP Morgan, GS, Intel Citigroup, Catterpillar). Tetapi CIT Group AS melaporkan dana bantuan sebesar $ 3 miliar tidak akan cukup memenuhi kebutuhan bank, Morgan Stanley menyarankan investor untuk menjual saham global, laporan keuangan yang mix dimana Morgan Stanley melaporkan kerugian akibat pembayaran hutang ke pemerintah dan Wells Fargo mengatakan kredit macet meningkat dibandingkan lebih baik dari perkiraan earning dari Apple Comp, Starbuck, KB Home dan Lennar Corp, Barclays Plc dan Royal Bank of Scotland masih memerlukan dana tambahan sebesar 12.8 miliar pound dan 8.5 miliar pound, daat ekonomi Eropa seperti: hasil BOE Minutes dan prediksi GDP Q2 Inggris akan terkontraksi 0.4% dan data Industrial Order Euro anjlok 0.2%, dapat menahan momentum kenaikan indeks saham global di akhir pekan ini.
Technical Analysis:
IHSG gagal menembus trendline resistance 2,157 di pola ascending triangle dan menunjukkan pola candle stalled, seharusnya memberikan signal negatif kepada IHSG. Tetapi pola uptrend dari uptrend channel, selama tidak ditutup dibawah 2,121 (lower channel), didukung oleh Signal penutupan diatas 2,123 (5-day MA) dan 2,093 (10- day MA) menunjukkan crossing up, indikator ADX rebound, stochastic dan MACD bullish, seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan dan cenderung mengarah ke target 2,159 (trendline)/2,170 (61.8% FR 2838-1089) dapat memperkuat komentum kenaikan IHSG hingga akhir pekan ini. Uptrend masih berlaku selama ditutup diatas 2,051 (trendline support) dalam 2 hari berturut-turut (untuk menghindari false break). Hitungan Elliot Wave menunjukkan perkiraan kenaikan saat ini merupakan proses wave minor 3 dalam prose wave 5 dalam wave intermediate 4 / B.
Resistance: 2207.65/2189.20/2159.47/2141.02. PP 2133.85
Support : 2111.28/2104.11/2096.95/2078.50
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2100 - 2,159)
Ind P/E (x)
EPS
Y/Y Y/Y Suku Bunga* Inflasi*
Y/Y GDP*
Y/Y
IHSG 13.3 8% -3.16% 6.75% 3.65% 4.4%
STI 19.8 16% -26.4% 0.69% -0.70% -10.1%
KLCI 13.8 10% -10.6% 2.0% 3.00% -6.2%
SET 12.7 4% -25.2% 1.25% -3.30% -7.10%
SSE 35.8 36% +2.5% 5.31% -1.40% 7.9%
N225 43.4 -1% -32.4% 0.10% -0.10% -9.7%
HSI 22.8 19% -22.7% 0.50% 0.60% -7.80%
DJIA 14.5 3% -29.5% 0.25% -1.4% -2.5%
* Negara Bersangkutan
Momentum kenaikan IHSG positif, meski terjadi aksi profit-taking kemarin, IHSG diperkirakan masih dapat melanjutkan trend kenaikan jangka pendek hingga akhir pekan ini, karena masih disupport oleh sejumlah sentimen positif dari kuatnya fundamental ekonomi RI dari masih positifnya pandangan sejumlah institusi asing paska teror bom Mega Kuningan, rupiah masih bertahan di kisaran Rp 10,000 terhadap dolar dan rencana penerbitan ORI seri 006 dengan kupon obligasi 9.35%/tahun tenor 3 tahun dalam waktu dekat, dapat mendorong aliran dana masuk dari investor asing, dapat menopang kinerja IHSG di pekan ini. Sementara pernyataan Bank Indonesia bahwa premi resiko gagal bayar perbankan (Credit Default Swap/CDS) Indonesia dibawah 300 basis poin justru membaik paska teror bom Mega Kuningan diikuti pernyataan dari Menteri Keuangan Sri Mulyani yang menjamin kondisi perekonnomian paska teror bom di kawasan Mega Kuningan, serat spekulasi penurunan inflasi bulan Juli dapat mendorong penurunan suku bunga BI di bulan Agustus, masih memberikan support kepada IHSG (Saham perbankan, infrastruktur, property, aneka industri). Potensi kenaikan harga komoditi (inventory minyak anjlok 1.8 juta barel di pekan lalu, target $67-70), seharusnya dapat angkat IHSG lebih lanjut.
Stock Picks: Average last 4 week +30.8%. Target 10-20%, Risk < -7%
Hold BUY: BUMI/UNSP/ENRG/DEWA, ASII/AALI/UNTR, BMTR/MNCN/BHIT, BBRI,BMRI,BBNI,TLKM,PTBA,ITMG,INDY,ANTM,INCO,TINS,TRUB, ASIA, KIJA
Stock Picks:
* JPRS overweight target Rp 450
* KIJA buy target Rp 140
Global Outlook
Munculnya kekhawatiran krisis perbankan global dan memburuknya ekonomi Eropa, dapat menahan momentum kenaikan indeks saham regional AS dan Wall Street, dimana sejak pekan lalu mendapatkan keuntungan dari positifnya data ekonomi AS (Retai Sales, Housing) dan earnings (JP Morgan, GS, Intel Citigroup, Catterpillar). Tetapi CIT Group AS melaporkan dana bantuan sebesar $ 3 miliar tidak akan cukup memenuhi kebutuhan bank, Morgan Stanley menyarankan investor untuk menjual saham global, laporan keuangan yang mix dimana Morgan Stanley melaporkan kerugian akibat pembayaran hutang ke pemerintah dan Wells Fargo mengatakan kredit macet meningkat dibandingkan lebih baik dari perkiraan earning dari Apple Comp, Starbuck, KB Home dan Lennar Corp, Barclays Plc dan Royal Bank of Scotland masih memerlukan dana tambahan sebesar 12.8 miliar pound dan 8.5 miliar pound, daat ekonomi Eropa seperti: hasil BOE Minutes dan prediksi GDP Q2 Inggris akan terkontraksi 0.4% dan data Industrial Order Euro anjlok 0.2%, dapat menahan momentum kenaikan indeks saham global di akhir pekan ini.
Technical Analysis:
IHSG gagal menembus trendline resistance 2,157 di pola ascending triangle dan menunjukkan pola candle stalled, seharusnya memberikan signal negatif kepada IHSG. Tetapi pola uptrend dari uptrend channel, selama tidak ditutup dibawah 2,121 (lower channel), didukung oleh Signal penutupan diatas 2,123 (5-day MA) dan 2,093 (10- day MA) menunjukkan crossing up, indikator ADX rebound, stochastic dan MACD bullish, seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan dan cenderung mengarah ke target 2,159 (trendline)/2,170 (61.8% FR 2838-1089) dapat memperkuat komentum kenaikan IHSG hingga akhir pekan ini. Uptrend masih berlaku selama ditutup diatas 2,051 (trendline support) dalam 2 hari berturut-turut (untuk menghindari false break). Hitungan Elliot Wave menunjukkan perkiraan kenaikan saat ini merupakan proses wave minor 3 dalam prose wave 5 dalam wave intermediate 4 / B.
Resistance: 2207.65/2189.20/2159.47/2141.02. PP 2133.85
Support : 2111.28/2104.11/2096.95/2078.50
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2100 - 2,159)
Perkiraan Konsolidasi Masih Terjadi Di Akhir Pekan Ini
EUR-USD
Pola symmetrical triangle kembali menunjukkan poal konsolidasi pada hari Rabu, diikuti pola uptrend channel, didukung oleh indikator ADX terkoreksi, stochastic crossing up dan MACD bullish, seharusnya masih mendukung perkiraan kenaikan hari ini. Support berada di 1.4164 (middle channel)/1.4260 (upper channel), Resistance berada di 1.4277/1.4330. Euro berada di dalam wave proses iii dalam wave 3 zig zag, untuk target $ 1.4277, selama tidak mencapai dibawah 1.4020. Buy 1.4120 & buy 1.4070 target 1.4200, sell break 1.4000 target 1.3880 stop 60p, Hold sell 1.4200 & 1.4270 target 1.4000 stop 1.4300.
USD-JPY
(+130p) USDJPY masih berada dalam pola uptrend channel di daily chart, meski penurunan tertahan di lower channel di 91.85, bilamana ditutup dibawah level tersebut akan memutarbalikan trend menjadi bearish target 90.35 (support line). Indikator ADX terkoreksi, stochastic crossover, MACD bearish, seharusnya mendukung peluang koreksi penurunan jika gagal ditutup diatas 94.60. Resistance berada di 94.85, support di 92.60. Buy break 95.00 target 96.50 stop 50p. Sell 94.60 target 93.20. Hold buy 93.20 target 94.60. Buy 91.80 stop 89.80.
GBP-USD
(+130p) GBP masih berada dalam uptrend channel, diikuti pola candle doji star, diikuti indikator ADX terkoreksi, stochastic crossing up dan MACD berada di teritorial bullish, mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas selama tidak ditutup dibawah 1.6311 (lower channel). Buy 1.6350 target 1.6550. sell 1.6570 target 1.6320, buy 1.6060, Sell 1.6640 target 1.6350. Sell break 1.6260 target 1.6100 stop 100p.
AUD-USD
AUD berada dalam pola uptrend channel minor dalam downtrend channel, meski pola candle evening star menunjukkan potensi technical rebound terbatas, diikuti ADX rebound, stochastic crossup, MACD masih bullish, mendukung potensi kenaikan 0.8175/0.8255, selama di bawah 0.7865. Resistance di 0.8100, support di 0.7944. buy 0.7950 & buy 7870 target 0.8100, hold sell 0.8170 target 0.8000 & sell 0.8250.
Pola symmetrical triangle kembali menunjukkan poal konsolidasi pada hari Rabu, diikuti pola uptrend channel, didukung oleh indikator ADX terkoreksi, stochastic crossing up dan MACD bullish, seharusnya masih mendukung perkiraan kenaikan hari ini. Support berada di 1.4164 (middle channel)/1.4260 (upper channel), Resistance berada di 1.4277/1.4330. Euro berada di dalam wave proses iii dalam wave 3 zig zag, untuk target $ 1.4277, selama tidak mencapai dibawah 1.4020. Buy 1.4120 & buy 1.4070 target 1.4200, sell break 1.4000 target 1.3880 stop 60p, Hold sell 1.4200 & 1.4270 target 1.4000 stop 1.4300.
USD-JPY
(+130p) USDJPY masih berada dalam pola uptrend channel di daily chart, meski penurunan tertahan di lower channel di 91.85, bilamana ditutup dibawah level tersebut akan memutarbalikan trend menjadi bearish target 90.35 (support line). Indikator ADX terkoreksi, stochastic crossover, MACD bearish, seharusnya mendukung peluang koreksi penurunan jika gagal ditutup diatas 94.60. Resistance berada di 94.85, support di 92.60. Buy break 95.00 target 96.50 stop 50p. Sell 94.60 target 93.20. Hold buy 93.20 target 94.60. Buy 91.80 stop 89.80.
GBP-USD
(+130p) GBP masih berada dalam uptrend channel, diikuti pola candle doji star, diikuti indikator ADX terkoreksi, stochastic crossing up dan MACD berada di teritorial bullish, mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas selama tidak ditutup dibawah 1.6311 (lower channel). Buy 1.6350 target 1.6550. sell 1.6570 target 1.6320, buy 1.6060, Sell 1.6640 target 1.6350. Sell break 1.6260 target 1.6100 stop 100p.
AUD-USD
AUD berada dalam pola uptrend channel minor dalam downtrend channel, meski pola candle evening star menunjukkan potensi technical rebound terbatas, diikuti ADX rebound, stochastic crossup, MACD masih bullish, mendukung potensi kenaikan 0.8175/0.8255, selama di bawah 0.7865. Resistance di 0.8100, support di 0.7944. buy 0.7950 & buy 7870 target 0.8100, hold sell 0.8170 target 0.8000 & sell 0.8250.
Potensi Penurunan Indeks Regional Terbatas Hari Ini
Nikkei Futures Kontrak September (SSIU9)
Indeks Nikkei menguat 0,7% ke level tertinggi dalam lebih dari 2 minggu terakhir kemarin berkat aksi beli teknikal yang mendorong indeks berjangkanya. Namun, penguatan terhambat oleh kejatuhan saham eksportir karena penguatan yen. Indeks Nikkei .N225 ditutup bertambah 71,14 poin, atau 0,74%, ke posisi 9.723,49, level penutupan tertinggi sejak 3 Juli.
Di chart daily, Nikkei kembali berada dalam trend netral setelah menunjukkan pola uptrend channel dan ditutup diatas 61.8 FR di 9471. Signal negatif dari candle stalled, ADX terkoreksi turun, stochastic crossing up dan MACD bearish, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan kenaikan terbatas. Resistance berada di 9939 (upper chanel))/9779 (ex support). Support berada di 9587 (lower channel)/9471 (50.0% FR). Perkiraan range hari ini 9550-9850. Rekomendasi Sell 9780 target 9470 stop 100p, sell 9940 target 9500 stp 100p. Buy 9470 target 9850 stop 100p, Buy 9580 target 9200 stop 50p.
Kospi Futures Kontrak September (KSU9)
Indeks Kospi untuk kali ketujuh secara beruntun catat penguatannya hari ini, karena membaiknya sentimen pasar menyusul data ekonomi dan serangkaian laporan keuangan perusahaan AS yang memuaskan. Namun, pergerakan indeks Kospi bergerak dalam range perdagangan sempit, menyusul rally yang dialami perdagangan sebelumnya. Indeks Kospi .KS11 ditutup naik 5,05 poin, atau 0,34%, ke posisi 1.494,04.
Dalam chart daily, indeks telah breakout pola ascending triangle dalam pola uptrend channel didukung pola candle hanging man (potensi bearish reversal). Kondisi stochastic crossover, MACD bullish dan ADX trending up, seharusnya masih mendorong perkiraan kenaikan yang terbatas. Resistance berada di 195.81/197.80. Support di 192.70/190.90. Rekomendasi Sell break 192.00 & 187.80 target 186.00 stop 100p, buy 190.00 target 195.00, sell break 185.50 target 183.00 stop 100p. Sell 195.70 target 185.00 stop 100p.
Hang Seng Futures Kontrak Juli (HSIN9)
Indeks Hang Seng jatuh 1,3% kemarin, dimana aksi profit taking lumatkan indeks, setelah mencatat level tertingginya dalam 10 bulan terakhir pada perdagangan sebelumnya. Indeks Hang Seng .HSI ditutup jatuh 253,56 poin, atau 1,3%, ke posisi 19.248,17 poin.
Dalam chart daily, indeks berada dalam pola uptrend channel dalam formasi bullish broadening , didukung pola candle hanging man, ADX meningkat, stochastic golden cross, MACD bearish divergence seharusnya dukung potensi bullish reversal. Resistance di 19660/19851/19980. Support 19230/19090. Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan wave koreksi v (akhir) dalam subwave motive (3) cycle B. Rekomendasi : Sell 19650 & 19850 target 19300 (or closing) stop 100 p. Sell 19200 target 18950. Buy 19.000 target 19500. sell break 18900 target 18460. buy break 19,340 target 19600 stop 100p. (+50p)
Indeks Nikkei menguat 0,7% ke level tertinggi dalam lebih dari 2 minggu terakhir kemarin berkat aksi beli teknikal yang mendorong indeks berjangkanya. Namun, penguatan terhambat oleh kejatuhan saham eksportir karena penguatan yen. Indeks Nikkei .N225 ditutup bertambah 71,14 poin, atau 0,74%, ke posisi 9.723,49, level penutupan tertinggi sejak 3 Juli.
Di chart daily, Nikkei kembali berada dalam trend netral setelah menunjukkan pola uptrend channel dan ditutup diatas 61.8 FR di 9471. Signal negatif dari candle stalled, ADX terkoreksi turun, stochastic crossing up dan MACD bearish, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan kenaikan terbatas. Resistance berada di 9939 (upper chanel))/9779 (ex support). Support berada di 9587 (lower channel)/9471 (50.0% FR). Perkiraan range hari ini 9550-9850. Rekomendasi Sell 9780 target 9470 stop 100p, sell 9940 target 9500 stp 100p. Buy 9470 target 9850 stop 100p, Buy 9580 target 9200 stop 50p.
Kospi Futures Kontrak September (KSU9)
Indeks Kospi untuk kali ketujuh secara beruntun catat penguatannya hari ini, karena membaiknya sentimen pasar menyusul data ekonomi dan serangkaian laporan keuangan perusahaan AS yang memuaskan. Namun, pergerakan indeks Kospi bergerak dalam range perdagangan sempit, menyusul rally yang dialami perdagangan sebelumnya. Indeks Kospi .KS11 ditutup naik 5,05 poin, atau 0,34%, ke posisi 1.494,04.
Dalam chart daily, indeks telah breakout pola ascending triangle dalam pola uptrend channel didukung pola candle hanging man (potensi bearish reversal). Kondisi stochastic crossover, MACD bullish dan ADX trending up, seharusnya masih mendorong perkiraan kenaikan yang terbatas. Resistance berada di 195.81/197.80. Support di 192.70/190.90. Rekomendasi Sell break 192.00 & 187.80 target 186.00 stop 100p, buy 190.00 target 195.00, sell break 185.50 target 183.00 stop 100p. Sell 195.70 target 185.00 stop 100p.
Hang Seng Futures Kontrak Juli (HSIN9)
Indeks Hang Seng jatuh 1,3% kemarin, dimana aksi profit taking lumatkan indeks, setelah mencatat level tertingginya dalam 10 bulan terakhir pada perdagangan sebelumnya. Indeks Hang Seng .HSI ditutup jatuh 253,56 poin, atau 1,3%, ke posisi 19.248,17 poin.
Dalam chart daily, indeks berada dalam pola uptrend channel dalam formasi bullish broadening , didukung pola candle hanging man, ADX meningkat, stochastic golden cross, MACD bearish divergence seharusnya dukung potensi bullish reversal. Resistance di 19660/19851/19980. Support 19230/19090. Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan wave koreksi v (akhir) dalam subwave motive (3) cycle B. Rekomendasi : Sell 19650 & 19850 target 19300 (or closing) stop 100 p. Sell 19200 target 18950. Buy 19.000 target 19500. sell break 18900 target 18460. buy break 19,340 target 19600 stop 100p. (+50p)
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Crude inventories fell last week, though gasoline supplies grew yet again, the government said Wednesday. Crude inventories fell by 1.8 million barrels, or 0.5 percent, to 342.7 million barrels, which is 16 percent above year-ago levels, the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report.
Analysts had expected a drop of 2 million barrels for the week ended July 17, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.
Gasoline inventories rose by 800,000 barrels, or 0.4 percent, to 215.4 million barrels. Ino.com
Written by Oil N' Gold | Wed Jul 22 09 05:57 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's rebound from 58.32 lost momentum after touching 50% retracement of 73.38 to 58.32 at 65.86 and intraday bias is turned neutral with 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line. As mentioned before, such rebound is treated as a correction to fall from 73.38 only and is expected to be limited by double top neckline at 66.25 and bring fall resumption. Below 62.28 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 58.32 low first. Break there will confirm decline resumption for 54.66 support next. However, note that sustained break of 66.25 will dampen this view and open up the bullish case for a retest of 73.38 high next.
In the bigger picture, as discussed before, whole medium term rebound from 33.2 is treated as completed with three waves up to 73.83, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. In addition, Crude oil failed to sustain above both 55 weeks and 55 months EMA. Hence, such rise from 33.2 to 73.83 is treated as a correction in the larger fall from 147.24 only. Fall from 73.83 is expected to resume after current recovery and should extend below 33.2 low. We'll maintain this bearish view as long as 66.25 support turned resistance holds.
However, note that so far, crude oil fails to sustain below medium term trend line support yet. A break above 66.25 will suggest that price actions from 73.83 might be developing into sideway consolidation only, rather than a reversal. In such case, whole medium term rise from 33.2 might still be in progress and focus will then be on whether crude oil can take out 73.83 high decisively.
Analysts had expected a drop of 2 million barrels for the week ended July 17, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.
Gasoline inventories rose by 800,000 barrels, or 0.4 percent, to 215.4 million barrels. Ino.com
Written by Oil N' Gold | Wed Jul 22 09 05:57 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's rebound from 58.32 lost momentum after touching 50% retracement of 73.38 to 58.32 at 65.86 and intraday bias is turned neutral with 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line. As mentioned before, such rebound is treated as a correction to fall from 73.38 only and is expected to be limited by double top neckline at 66.25 and bring fall resumption. Below 62.28 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 58.32 low first. Break there will confirm decline resumption for 54.66 support next. However, note that sustained break of 66.25 will dampen this view and open up the bullish case for a retest of 73.38 high next.
In the bigger picture, as discussed before, whole medium term rebound from 33.2 is treated as completed with three waves up to 73.83, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. In addition, Crude oil failed to sustain above both 55 weeks and 55 months EMA. Hence, such rise from 33.2 to 73.83 is treated as a correction in the larger fall from 147.24 only. Fall from 73.83 is expected to resume after current recovery and should extend below 33.2 low. We'll maintain this bearish view as long as 66.25 support turned resistance holds.
However, note that so far, crude oil fails to sustain below medium term trend line support yet. A break above 66.25 will suggest that price actions from 73.83 might be developing into sideway consolidation only, rather than a reversal. In such case, whole medium term rise from 33.2 might still be in progress and focus will then be on whether crude oil can take out 73.83 high decisively.
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Wed Jul 22 09 05:58 ET
Comex Gold (GC)
With 4 hours MACD dragged below signal line, an intraday top should be in place in gold and some consolidation might be seen. But downside is expected to be contained by 931.1 support and bring another rise. Prior break of 949 resistance indicates that decline from992.1 has completed with three waves down to 904.8. Further rally should now be seen to retest 992.1 resistance next. However, break of 931.1 will dampen this view and turn bias back to the downside for a retest of 904.8 low first.
In the bigger picture, the earlier than expected completion of fall from 992.1 suggests that it's part of the consolidation from 1007.7 or a correction to rise from 865. In either case, there are still some possible scenarios that will bring more consolidation below 1007.7. So we'd stay neutral as long as 1007.7 resistance holds and be prepared for another fall before completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, the case of another deep fall to 865 is not likely now. Anyway, break of 992.1 /1007.7 resistance will indicate that whole rise from 681 has resumed for 1033.9 key resistance next.
Comex Gold (GC)
With 4 hours MACD dragged below signal line, an intraday top should be in place in gold and some consolidation might be seen. But downside is expected to be contained by 931.1 support and bring another rise. Prior break of 949 resistance indicates that decline from992.1 has completed with three waves down to 904.8. Further rally should now be seen to retest 992.1 resistance next. However, break of 931.1 will dampen this view and turn bias back to the downside for a retest of 904.8 low first.
In the bigger picture, the earlier than expected completion of fall from 992.1 suggests that it's part of the consolidation from 1007.7 or a correction to rise from 865. In either case, there are still some possible scenarios that will bring more consolidation below 1007.7. So we'd stay neutral as long as 1007.7 resistance holds and be prepared for another fall before completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, the case of another deep fall to 865 is not likely now. Anyway, break of 992.1 /1007.7 resistance will indicate that whole rise from 681 has resumed for 1033.9 key resistance next.
IYJ Trading Update and Dow Stocks Index Buy Signals
By: Patrice_V_Johnson
Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLONG-TERM TREND (> 1YR) OF THE MARKETS: DOWN
INTERMEDIATE-TERM TREND (> 3 WKS, & <1 YR) OF THE MARKETS: UP
SHORTS LONGS _____________________
None - IYJ (i shares dow jones industrial sector index etf)
Greetings, fellow J.E.D.I.,
This article is to alert you that The J.E.D.I. Way received a fill on its market order of 50 shares of IYJ at $42.91. The J.E.D.I. Way will now place a protective stop behind its long postion in IYJ as follows: (See chart below):
While the long-term trend of the markets remain down, the intermediate-term trend of the markets has changed from down to up. If you take a look at the Daily chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average [the "DOW"] (Ticker Symbol: DJIA), the DOW stopped making lower lows sometime after July 13, 2009 and its recent close above the right shouldler on high volume of what was then considered a "HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN" suggest that the support areas of 8200 and 8000 on the DOW should hold. While indicators on the Daily Chart suggest that the current runup may be overdone (or overbought), the weekly chart suggest that the DOW’s previous runup is far from overdone (or is oversold.). (SEE BELOW):
DAILY CHART OF DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE (DJIA) DATED 7/19/2009
WEEKLY CHART OF THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE (DJIA) DATED 7/19/09
Thus, I think these divergences with the Daily and Weekly chart on the DOW means that perhaps we will get more overbought on the daily and then see a pullback to the right shoulders before continuing higher. A pullback to the right shoulder (of what was then considered a H & S pattern) would approximate a 50% retractment of the current new uptrend on the daily chart. And this pull back could take place this week.To reiterate: The J.E.D.I. Way will place a protective stop behind its long postion purchase of 50 shares of I shares Dow Jones Industrial Average Sector ETF (Ticker Symbol: IYJ) at $42.38. This should cut our losses short to around $26.50 before commissions since we received a fill at $42.90 on Monday, July 20, 2009. If we are stopped out and the market goes back up strong and signals that the long term trend is up, we will just get back in and follow up with another stop loss at an approproate price level that keeps cuts our losses short and let our profits run.
The goal of trading is to not lose money, but if we do lose money, make sure to lose very little. (Old Korean Trading Principal) ...And let profits run about.
Until Next Time.
Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLONG-TERM TREND (> 1YR) OF THE MARKETS: DOWN
INTERMEDIATE-TERM TREND (> 3 WKS, & <1 YR) OF THE MARKETS: UP
SHORTS LONGS _____________________
None - IYJ (i shares dow jones industrial sector index etf)
Greetings, fellow J.E.D.I.,
This article is to alert you that The J.E.D.I. Way received a fill on its market order of 50 shares of IYJ at $42.91. The J.E.D.I. Way will now place a protective stop behind its long postion in IYJ as follows: (See chart below):
While the long-term trend of the markets remain down, the intermediate-term trend of the markets has changed from down to up. If you take a look at the Daily chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average [the "DOW"] (Ticker Symbol: DJIA), the DOW stopped making lower lows sometime after July 13, 2009 and its recent close above the right shouldler on high volume of what was then considered a "HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN" suggest that the support areas of 8200 and 8000 on the DOW should hold. While indicators on the Daily Chart suggest that the current runup may be overdone (or overbought), the weekly chart suggest that the DOW’s previous runup is far from overdone (or is oversold.). (SEE BELOW):
DAILY CHART OF DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE (DJIA) DATED 7/19/2009
WEEKLY CHART OF THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE (DJIA) DATED 7/19/09
Thus, I think these divergences with the Daily and Weekly chart on the DOW means that perhaps we will get more overbought on the daily and then see a pullback to the right shoulders before continuing higher. A pullback to the right shoulder (of what was then considered a H & S pattern) would approximate a 50% retractment of the current new uptrend on the daily chart. And this pull back could take place this week.To reiterate: The J.E.D.I. Way will place a protective stop behind its long postion purchase of 50 shares of I shares Dow Jones Industrial Average Sector ETF (Ticker Symbol: IYJ) at $42.38. This should cut our losses short to around $26.50 before commissions since we received a fill at $42.90 on Monday, July 20, 2009. If we are stopped out and the market goes back up strong and signals that the long term trend is up, we will just get back in and follow up with another stop loss at an approproate price level that keeps cuts our losses short and let our profits run.
The goal of trading is to not lose money, but if we do lose money, make sure to lose very little. (Old Korean Trading Principal) ...And let profits run about.
Until Next Time.
Australian Dollar May Rise to 10-Month High: Technical Analysis
By Candice Zachariahs
July 22 (Bloomberg) -- The Australian dollar may advance toward a 10-month high after the currency climbed above a “pivotal resistance” point at 81.55 U.S. cents, BNP Paribas SA said, citing trading patterns. The so-called Aussie dollar has slipped 1.3 percent from the highest this year of 82.63 U.S. cents on June 3 as investors sold higher-yielding assets on concern that the second-quarter corporate earnings season would disappoint. The break above 81.55 cents suggests a six-week “corrective pullback” is over, Andrew Chaveriat, a technical strategist at BNP Paribas in New York, wrote in a note to clients yesterday.“Aussie should make a new cycle high,” Chaveriat wrote. Weekly momentum is expected to turn bullish, which “would increase the odds of hitting 83.80-85.20 cents.”
Australia’s currency fell 0.4 percent to 81.48 U.S. cents as of 9:52 a.m. in Sydney from 81.82 cents in New York yesterday. It last reached 85.19 cents on Sept. 22. The currency declined 0.6 percent to 76.25 yen.The currency will initially reach 83.80 cents, based on the 61.80 percent Fibonacci retracement of the Aussie’s decline from a record high of 98.50 cents on July 15, 2008, to its lowest point last year of 60.09 on Oct. 27, according to the report. From there it may rise toward 86.10 cents, wrote Chaveriat.Fibonacci analysis uses ratios, which are based on the sequence identified by an Italian mathematician in the 13th century, to predict support and resistance levels for prices. Support is where buy orders may be clustered, while resistance is where there may be sell orders.
Uptrend Remains
The Australian dollar may also rise against the yen after holding above 75.61 yen, the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement of the currency’s decline from 80.45 yen on June 11, RBC Capital Markets said.“The uptrend in Australian dollar-yen remains in place,” Matthew Strauss, a senior currency strategist in Toronto at RBC Capital Markets, a unit of Canada’s biggest bank, wrote in a report today.In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast price changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.
July 22 (Bloomberg) -- The Australian dollar may advance toward a 10-month high after the currency climbed above a “pivotal resistance” point at 81.55 U.S. cents, BNP Paribas SA said, citing trading patterns. The so-called Aussie dollar has slipped 1.3 percent from the highest this year of 82.63 U.S. cents on June 3 as investors sold higher-yielding assets on concern that the second-quarter corporate earnings season would disappoint. The break above 81.55 cents suggests a six-week “corrective pullback” is over, Andrew Chaveriat, a technical strategist at BNP Paribas in New York, wrote in a note to clients yesterday.“Aussie should make a new cycle high,” Chaveriat wrote. Weekly momentum is expected to turn bullish, which “would increase the odds of hitting 83.80-85.20 cents.”
Australia’s currency fell 0.4 percent to 81.48 U.S. cents as of 9:52 a.m. in Sydney from 81.82 cents in New York yesterday. It last reached 85.19 cents on Sept. 22. The currency declined 0.6 percent to 76.25 yen.The currency will initially reach 83.80 cents, based on the 61.80 percent Fibonacci retracement of the Aussie’s decline from a record high of 98.50 cents on July 15, 2008, to its lowest point last year of 60.09 on Oct. 27, according to the report. From there it may rise toward 86.10 cents, wrote Chaveriat.Fibonacci analysis uses ratios, which are based on the sequence identified by an Italian mathematician in the 13th century, to predict support and resistance levels for prices. Support is where buy orders may be clustered, while resistance is where there may be sell orders.
Uptrend Remains
The Australian dollar may also rise against the yen after holding above 75.61 yen, the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement of the currency’s decline from 80.45 yen on June 11, RBC Capital Markets said.“The uptrend in Australian dollar-yen remains in place,” Matthew Strauss, a senior currency strategist in Toronto at RBC Capital Markets, a unit of Canada’s biggest bank, wrote in a report today.In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast price changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.
Treasury Yields to Fall, Fibonacci Signals: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Ten-year Treasury yields are likely to decline, paring their biggest weekly increase in more than a month, a technical indicator suggests. Yields may fall to 3.43 percent this week after they failed on July 20 to break above 3.72 percent, a figure that represents a key threshold based on the Fibonacci sequence of numbers, said Kazuaki Oh’e, a bond salesman in Tokyo at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, the nation’s fifth-biggest bank.The 3.72 percent yield marks a 61.8 percent retracement of the decline from an eight-month high of 4 percent on June 11 to a two-month low of 3.26 percent on July 13.
“The yield is likely to fall a bit further this week,” Oh’e said. “It may reach the next support level” of 3.43 percent, which is the 23.6 percent retracement level, he said.The 10-year yield was unchanged at 3.48 percent as of 9:05 a.m. in Tokyo, according to BGCantor Market Data. It fell 12 basis points, or 0.12 percentage point, in New York yesterday.Yields jumped 34 basis points last week, the biggest increase since the five days ended June 5.
Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low. A break above resistance or below support indicates yields may move to the next stage. Levels used in the analysis are based on a sequence identified in the 13th century by Italian mathematician Leonardo da Pisa.
“The yield is likely to fall a bit further this week,” Oh’e said. “It may reach the next support level” of 3.43 percent, which is the 23.6 percent retracement level, he said.The 10-year yield was unchanged at 3.48 percent as of 9:05 a.m. in Tokyo, according to BGCantor Market Data. It fell 12 basis points, or 0.12 percentage point, in New York yesterday.Yields jumped 34 basis points last week, the biggest increase since the five days ended June 5.
Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low. A break above resistance or below support indicates yields may move to the next stage. Levels used in the analysis are based on a sequence identified in the 13th century by Italian mathematician Leonardo da Pisa.
5 Of The Best ETFs In The Last Month
By Tom Lydon on July 21, 2009
Every so often, it’s helpful to take stock of the markets and see what’s been happening in the big picture. With that, here are five exchange traded funds (ETFs) that have moved impressively in the last month.When Gary Gordon wrote about the three most impressive ETF movers in the last month, we thought we could expand on his premise and include some other areas that investors are picking up on during dips in the market place.
In Taiwan, tech companies are leading the economy. This sector in Taiwan is increasing job opportunities to grow the burgeoning firm’s global name brands such as Asustek, innovator of the “netbook,” and Acer, manufacturer of powerful yet cheap PCs that may become the world’s second largest PC maker.
* iShares MSCI Taiwan Index (EWT: 11.11 -0.03 -0.27%): up 44.7% year-to-date; up 14.4% in the last month
ETF EWT
Turkey has some factors in its favor: the central bank has reduced rates to its lo a record low, consumer confidence is on the rise and jobless claims are declining. But the country is not completely out of the deep yet.
* iShares MSCI Turkey Invest Mkt Index (TUR: 39.94 -0.15 -0.37%): up 46.9% year-to-date; up 12.2% in the last month
ETF TUR
Spain’s GDP will drop but not as severely compared to the first quarter, according to Reuters. The Spanish economy contracted 1.9% in the first quarter and is expected to shrink 3.6% in 2009 and 0.6% in 2010. Economic stimulus plans are likely to have increased public deficit above 10% of GDP this year.
* iShares MSCI Spain Index (EWP: 42.23 -0.12 -0.28%): up 12.3% year-to-date; up 10.5% in the last month
ETF EWP
The semiconductor sector is on the mend with demand picking up once again, but has yet to reach numbers previously seen. Overall, the industry is still cutting back to do away with the excess fat and build up efficiency. Tech companies are lowering their forecasts.
* Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH: 23.81 -0.16 -0.67%): up 21.8% year-to-date; up 1.7% in the last month
ETF SMH
Homebuilders should have been elated to hear that June housing construction rose to its highest level in seven months as builders rushed to pour foundations to enable first-time homebuyers to take advantage of tax credits. Commerce Department reported that construction of new homes and apartments jumped 3.6% last month. New housing starts and permits have risen for the second straight month in June.
* iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction (ITB: 10.43 -0.09 -0.86%): up 6.8% year-to-date; up 8.7% in the last month
Every so often, it’s helpful to take stock of the markets and see what’s been happening in the big picture. With that, here are five exchange traded funds (ETFs) that have moved impressively in the last month.When Gary Gordon wrote about the three most impressive ETF movers in the last month, we thought we could expand on his premise and include some other areas that investors are picking up on during dips in the market place.
In Taiwan, tech companies are leading the economy. This sector in Taiwan is increasing job opportunities to grow the burgeoning firm’s global name brands such as Asustek, innovator of the “netbook,” and Acer, manufacturer of powerful yet cheap PCs that may become the world’s second largest PC maker.
* iShares MSCI Taiwan Index (EWT: 11.11 -0.03 -0.27%): up 44.7% year-to-date; up 14.4% in the last month
ETF EWT
Turkey has some factors in its favor: the central bank has reduced rates to its lo a record low, consumer confidence is on the rise and jobless claims are declining. But the country is not completely out of the deep yet.
* iShares MSCI Turkey Invest Mkt Index (TUR: 39.94 -0.15 -0.37%): up 46.9% year-to-date; up 12.2% in the last month
ETF TUR
Spain’s GDP will drop but not as severely compared to the first quarter, according to Reuters. The Spanish economy contracted 1.9% in the first quarter and is expected to shrink 3.6% in 2009 and 0.6% in 2010. Economic stimulus plans are likely to have increased public deficit above 10% of GDP this year.
* iShares MSCI Spain Index (EWP: 42.23 -0.12 -0.28%): up 12.3% year-to-date; up 10.5% in the last month
ETF EWP
The semiconductor sector is on the mend with demand picking up once again, but has yet to reach numbers previously seen. Overall, the industry is still cutting back to do away with the excess fat and build up efficiency. Tech companies are lowering their forecasts.
* Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH: 23.81 -0.16 -0.67%): up 21.8% year-to-date; up 1.7% in the last month
ETF SMH
Homebuilders should have been elated to hear that June housing construction rose to its highest level in seven months as builders rushed to pour foundations to enable first-time homebuyers to take advantage of tax credits. Commerce Department reported that construction of new homes and apartments jumped 3.6% last month. New housing starts and permits have risen for the second straight month in June.
* iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction (ITB: 10.43 -0.09 -0.86%): up 6.8% year-to-date; up 8.7% in the last month
New ETFs Could Provide 200% Leverage – With A Twist
By Tom Lydon on July 21, 2009 | More Posts By Tom Lydon | Author's Website
A new leveraged exchange traded fund (ETF) provider has filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The filing is for some ETFs that could prove to deliver an interesting twist on the concept of this type of fund. FactorETF Trust would aim to provide 200% of the daily return of an underlying index. However, the proposed ETFs to launch first would be based on underlying indexes that measure their respective sector and/or asset class against broader markets, explains Murray Coleman for Index Universe.
One example Coleman gives is the FactorETF 2x REIT Shares, which is described as attempting to provide 200% of the daily excess return of U.S. real estate investment trust stocks vs. the broader domestic stock market. The same is true for other funds in the filing, including one for gold, stocks vs. U.S. government bonds and short-duration government bonds vs. long-term issues. Other asset classes being leveraged by competing indexes include:
* Treasury Inflation-Protected Bonds (TIPS) vs. nominal Treasuries
* Nominal Treasuries vs. TIPS
* Bonds vs. stocks
A new leveraged exchange traded fund (ETF) provider has filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The filing is for some ETFs that could prove to deliver an interesting twist on the concept of this type of fund. FactorETF Trust would aim to provide 200% of the daily return of an underlying index. However, the proposed ETFs to launch first would be based on underlying indexes that measure their respective sector and/or asset class against broader markets, explains Murray Coleman for Index Universe.
One example Coleman gives is the FactorETF 2x REIT Shares, which is described as attempting to provide 200% of the daily excess return of U.S. real estate investment trust stocks vs. the broader domestic stock market. The same is true for other funds in the filing, including one for gold, stocks vs. U.S. government bonds and short-duration government bonds vs. long-term issues. Other asset classes being leveraged by competing indexes include:
* Treasury Inflation-Protected Bonds (TIPS) vs. nominal Treasuries
* Nominal Treasuries vs. TIPS
* Bonds vs. stocks
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Plunging CCI Resulting in Cheap Commodities on False Bearish Prognostications
By: Zeal_LLC
Commodities
Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCommodities have had a rough go lately, especially before this week. You couldn’t open a financial newspaper or turn on CNBC without seeing endless bearish prognostications for raw materials’ prices. Ongoing global economic fears led to the widespread belief that commodities are doomed to grind lower.And indeed this was an extrapolation of the short-term trend. Between June 1st and July 8th, the flagship Continuous Commodity Index (CCI) plunged 11.0%. This may not seem extreme to stock traders in our wild times, but it really is by CCI standards. This index’s unique construction (17 equally-weighted commodities geometrically averaged) means it usually moves with all the sound and fury of a glacier.
Naturally after such fast commodities selling, sentiment in this realm is pretty poor today. Investors are racked with doubts, unwilling to commit more capital and very tempted to liquidate existing commodities-related positions if they haven’t already. And I don’t blame them if the last 6 weeks is the extent of their perceptions. Commodities have been much weaker than the general stock markets (-6.7%) over this span. Realize that always in the markets, price action drives newsflow. It’s not the other way around as most people assume. When prices are weak, we all have a natural selection bias to seek out bearish stories in an attempt to “justify” the decline. The financial media greatly amplifies this tendency, telling its viewers/readers exactly what they want to hear at any time in order to maximize advertising revenues.
So today’s bearish commodities sentiment is the result of the recent CCI retreat, not the cause of it. But with some perspective beyond the last 6 weeks, it soon becomes apparent the technical case for commodities is actually quite bullish now. I’ll run you through it in this essay, starting with a multi-month overview and gradually zooming out to a multi-decade one. Commodities are quite cheap, great buys.
Commodities
Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCommodities have had a rough go lately, especially before this week. You couldn’t open a financial newspaper or turn on CNBC without seeing endless bearish prognostications for raw materials’ prices. Ongoing global economic fears led to the widespread belief that commodities are doomed to grind lower.And indeed this was an extrapolation of the short-term trend. Between June 1st and July 8th, the flagship Continuous Commodity Index (CCI) plunged 11.0%. This may not seem extreme to stock traders in our wild times, but it really is by CCI standards. This index’s unique construction (17 equally-weighted commodities geometrically averaged) means it usually moves with all the sound and fury of a glacier.
Naturally after such fast commodities selling, sentiment in this realm is pretty poor today. Investors are racked with doubts, unwilling to commit more capital and very tempted to liquidate existing commodities-related positions if they haven’t already. And I don’t blame them if the last 6 weeks is the extent of their perceptions. Commodities have been much weaker than the general stock markets (-6.7%) over this span. Realize that always in the markets, price action drives newsflow. It’s not the other way around as most people assume. When prices are weak, we all have a natural selection bias to seek out bearish stories in an attempt to “justify” the decline. The financial media greatly amplifies this tendency, telling its viewers/readers exactly what they want to hear at any time in order to maximize advertising revenues.
So today’s bearish commodities sentiment is the result of the recent CCI retreat, not the cause of it. But with some perspective beyond the last 6 weeks, it soon becomes apparent the technical case for commodities is actually quite bullish now. I’ll run you through it in this essay, starting with a multi-month overview and gradually zooming out to a multi-decade one. Commodities are quite cheap, great buys.
Stocks Bear Market Counter Trend Rally NOT Over
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Down! The very-long-term cycles have taken over and if they make their lows when expected, the bear market which started in October 2007 should continue until 2012-2014. This would imply that much lower prices lie ahead. This will not be a straight-down decline, but a series of intermediate-term rallies and declines until we have reached the low point.
SPX: Intermediate trend - The counter-trend rally which started on March 6 is not over after all and 956 will most likely be exceeded with a move to 962 and perhaps 1000.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determines the course of longer market trends.
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Down! The very-long-term cycles have taken over and if they make their lows when expected, the bear market which started in October 2007 should continue until 2012-2014. This would imply that much lower prices lie ahead. This will not be a straight-down decline, but a series of intermediate-term rallies and declines until we have reached the low point.
SPX: Intermediate trend - The counter-trend rally which started on March 6 is not over after all and 956 will most likely be exceeded with a move to 962 and perhaps 1000.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determines the course of longer market trends.
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