Stocks Will Rise Despite Jobs Data: Strategist
By: JeeYeon Park CNBC News Associate
U.S. employers unexpectedly cut 85,000 jobs in December, according to government data on Friday, cooling optimism on the labor market's recovery. How will the data affect stocks? Mike Holland, chairman of Holland & Company, and David Spika, vice president and investment strategist at WHG Funds, shared their views.“The employment numbers really gave us a reality check,” Spika told CNBC.“The trend of the recovery is still in place, but what this showed us is that markets and expectations got a little ahead of themselves, in terms of the recovery.”Despite the grim data, Spika said he still expects stocks to rise and suggested investors put their money into the large-cap, high quality names.
Malaysia Stocks May Drop on ‘Shooting Star’: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Malaysia’s benchmark stock index may drop after a “shooting star” formation emerged in its candle chart yesterday, halting an advance on the key 1,300 resistance level, RHB Research Institute Sdn. said. “Clearly, the index has failed its first attempt to remove the solid psychological level,” RHB said in a report today. The “immediate-term outlook has turned slightly negative.”Candlestick charts show an index or security’s high, low, open and close each day, and may signal a reversal of a trend or a continuation. A “shooting star” has a short real body with a long upper shadow, forming on a day when a security that has been rising previously has an open, close and low close together and far away from the high for the day.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a44DQKiSoO6E
Oil’s Rally to Stall at $88, BayernLB Says: Technical Analysis
Crude oil’s rally will falter at $88 a barrel, capped by a trend-line connecting the highest prices of the past six months, according to Bayerische Landesbank. Oil reached a 14-month high this week, rising to $83.52 a barrel on Jan. 6, as freezing temperatures in the northern hemisphere stoked demand for heating fuels. The surge won’t last much longer, as prices are in excess of their fair value and heading for a layer of resistance at $88, according to Germany’s second-biggest state-owned lender.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aEj5uNU.EBBA
Oil Heading for $90 a Barrel: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil will test resistance at $85.42 a barrel and may reach $90 or $100 during the first quarter of 2010, according to technical analysis by Newedge Group. Prices are set to challenge $85.42 and $85.82 a barrel, the highs reached by February futures on Nov. 4 and Oct. 21, said Veronique Lashinski, a senior research analyst for Newedge USA LLC in Chicago. A fall below $81.79 would point to a “short- term corrective decline,” she said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a_P3ESDmr9gs
Dollar Poised for Break Out Against Yen: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The dollar may post a “bullish break out” against the yen if tomorrow’s U.S. employment report shows the economic recovery gaining momentum, according to Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. A break through “strong resistance” between 93 and 95 yen, where the 30-month bear trend line is located, would confirm the move, Lee Hardman, foreign-exchange strategist in London for Bank of Tokyo, wrote in a report today. A resistance level is where sell orders may be clustered.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a6pGSnXy_XPU
Friday, January 8, 2010
BUMI (2.925).....Ready For A New Bull Med Term???
Note: BUMI chart weekly. ADX daily is strong, weekly weak = Rebound Potential Is Limited on 3.275/3.590 (38.2% Fibo 385-8750), notice an oscilator's signal is crossover BUY, had breakout bearish pennant,a weekly long bullish candle = a bullish continuation for next week, wave impulse iii/3 intermediate on uptrend channel minor. Any corrections are for buy & hold / invest. Ready for a New Bull Trend???
Globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
More Detail on Technical Analysis BUMI 2010 (Prospek Saham & Investasi Global 2010 PT. Universal Broker Indonesia Securities; TF) will be release next week.
Globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
More Detail on Technical Analysis BUMI 2010 (Prospek Saham & Investasi Global 2010 PT. Universal Broker Indonesia Securities; TF) will be release next week.
Thursday, January 7, 2010
Prospek Saham Indonesia 2010 (Business Week) & Commodity 2010 (Kontan)
Prospek Saham Indonesia 2010 (Bloomberg BusinessWeek Edisi 13-24 Januari 2010);
Prospek Saham Indonesia & Investasi Global 2010 PT Universal Broker Indonesia Securities (TF)(total 48 Halaman): Halaman 10-12.
Potensi kenaikan saham IHSG dapat ditopang oleh sejumlah IPO saham (25 emiten), right issue (34 emiten), penerbitan obligasi korporat (34 emiten) yang akan launching di tahun 2010, ekonomi diprediksikan tumbuh 5-5.5% dan inflasi di kisaran 3-5%, rupiah berada di Rp 8,900, suku bunga 7.5% di akhir tahun 2010, mendorong perkiraan IHSG diprediksi tumbuh 10% di 2010 (2.750; PER 16.5x, the best case potensi ke 3.000) meski isu negatif dari berkepanjangannya kasus Bank Century di semester 1 2010/kenaikan inflasi yang berimbas ke kenaikan suku bunga BI, tarif listrik, tol dan elpiji dapat membebani kinerja IHSG di pertengahan tahun pertama 2010.
Top Pick 2010:
Komoditi (prospek kenaikan harga batubara target $ 120/mt, emas $ 1.350, minyak $ 90-100, nikel $ 21.500)
ADRO: target Rp 2.300 (ISU positif dari pemerintah berencana menurunkan royalti atau dana hasil produksi batubara, produksi batubara meningkat 20%, kinerja ekspansi dana aksi korporat yang positif)
BUMI: target Rp 3.000/4.200* (ekpansi & diversifikasi usaha, akuisisi Newmont, Herald dan kemungkinan tambang BHP Maruwai, kinerja yang solid. (*) jika masalah tunggakan pajak tidak terbukti.
ITMG : target Rp 34.500 (isu positif dari pemerintah berencana menurunkan royalti atau dana hasil produksi batubara, produksi batubara meningkat 20%, rencana akuisisi tambang batubara)
UNTR: target Rp 20.500 (rencana akuisis tambang batu bara, kinerja induk usaha, penjualan truk yang meningkat)
ANTM: target Rp 3.200 (kenaikan harga emas dan nikel, rencana akuisisi saham BHP Billiton di maruwai dan Freeport).
PGAS: target Rp 5.100 (kenaikan harga elpiji, kenaikan harga gas dunia, supply gas ke PLN)
DOID: target Rp 2.200 (prospek kenaikan harga batubara, kontribusi pendapatan dari DUMA, rencana ekspansi)
Konsumer (prospek pemulihan ekonomi dan solidnya daya beli konsumen):
INDF: target Rp 4.325 (kinerja anak usaha, kenaikan produksi dan pendapatan, IPO Indo Agri)
UNVR: target Rp 15.800 ((kinerja anak usaha, kenaikan produksi dan pendapatan)
Aneka Industri:
ASII target Rp 42.800 (apresiasi Rupiah, suku bunga rendah dengan kuatnya penjualan di sektor otomotif dan alat berat, serta naiknya trend harga CPO).
Perbankan : (prospek ekonomi: inflasi/suku bunga/kredit terkendali)
BMRI target Rp 6.050, prospek kinerja yang solid, pembayaran utang & IPO Garuda, kredit dapat meningkat 10-20%)
BBRI target Rp 9.900 (prospek kinerja yang solid, NPL dapat menurun, rencana stock split dan akuisisi bank)
Telekomunikasi:
TLKM target Rp 11.400 (rencana akuisisi, dominasi sektor, proyeksi pertumbuhan & pendapatan 10-15%)
Property:
BSDE target Rp 1.200 (kinerja perseeroan yangsolid, proyeksi kenaikan penjualan 20%, masuk ke LQ 45 meningkatkan daya tarik untuk minvestor asing)
SMRA target Rp 800 (proyeksi penjualan dan pendapatan meninmgkat 15%, proyek2 strategist, rendahnya valuasi dibanding sektor)
BKDP target Rp 230 (buy back saham rencana perseroan membangun hunian menengah atas dan apartemen di Surabaya, proyeks di jembatan Suramadu)
Commodity
Harian Kontan edisi 04 Januari 2010
Prospek Saham Indonesia & Investasi Global 2010 PT Universal Broker Indonesia (total 48 Halaman) Securities (TF): Halaman 33 - 40.
Prospek Saham Indonesia & Investasi Global 2010 PT Universal Broker Indonesia Securities (TF)(total 48 Halaman): Halaman 10-12.
Potensi kenaikan saham IHSG dapat ditopang oleh sejumlah IPO saham (25 emiten), right issue (34 emiten), penerbitan obligasi korporat (34 emiten) yang akan launching di tahun 2010, ekonomi diprediksikan tumbuh 5-5.5% dan inflasi di kisaran 3-5%, rupiah berada di Rp 8,900, suku bunga 7.5% di akhir tahun 2010, mendorong perkiraan IHSG diprediksi tumbuh 10% di 2010 (2.750; PER 16.5x, the best case potensi ke 3.000) meski isu negatif dari berkepanjangannya kasus Bank Century di semester 1 2010/kenaikan inflasi yang berimbas ke kenaikan suku bunga BI, tarif listrik, tol dan elpiji dapat membebani kinerja IHSG di pertengahan tahun pertama 2010.
Top Pick 2010:
Komoditi (prospek kenaikan harga batubara target $ 120/mt, emas $ 1.350, minyak $ 90-100, nikel $ 21.500)
ADRO: target Rp 2.300 (ISU positif dari pemerintah berencana menurunkan royalti atau dana hasil produksi batubara, produksi batubara meningkat 20%, kinerja ekspansi dana aksi korporat yang positif)
BUMI: target Rp 3.000/4.200* (ekpansi & diversifikasi usaha, akuisisi Newmont, Herald dan kemungkinan tambang BHP Maruwai, kinerja yang solid. (*) jika masalah tunggakan pajak tidak terbukti.
ITMG : target Rp 34.500 (isu positif dari pemerintah berencana menurunkan royalti atau dana hasil produksi batubara, produksi batubara meningkat 20%, rencana akuisisi tambang batubara)
UNTR: target Rp 20.500 (rencana akuisis tambang batu bara, kinerja induk usaha, penjualan truk yang meningkat)
ANTM: target Rp 3.200 (kenaikan harga emas dan nikel, rencana akuisisi saham BHP Billiton di maruwai dan Freeport).
PGAS: target Rp 5.100 (kenaikan harga elpiji, kenaikan harga gas dunia, supply gas ke PLN)
DOID: target Rp 2.200 (prospek kenaikan harga batubara, kontribusi pendapatan dari DUMA, rencana ekspansi)
Konsumer (prospek pemulihan ekonomi dan solidnya daya beli konsumen):
INDF: target Rp 4.325 (kinerja anak usaha, kenaikan produksi dan pendapatan, IPO Indo Agri)
UNVR: target Rp 15.800 ((kinerja anak usaha, kenaikan produksi dan pendapatan)
Aneka Industri:
ASII target Rp 42.800 (apresiasi Rupiah, suku bunga rendah dengan kuatnya penjualan di sektor otomotif dan alat berat, serta naiknya trend harga CPO).
Perbankan : (prospek ekonomi: inflasi/suku bunga/kredit terkendali)
BMRI target Rp 6.050, prospek kinerja yang solid, pembayaran utang & IPO Garuda, kredit dapat meningkat 10-20%)
BBRI target Rp 9.900 (prospek kinerja yang solid, NPL dapat menurun, rencana stock split dan akuisisi bank)
Telekomunikasi:
TLKM target Rp 11.400 (rencana akuisisi, dominasi sektor, proyeksi pertumbuhan & pendapatan 10-15%)
Property:
BSDE target Rp 1.200 (kinerja perseeroan yangsolid, proyeksi kenaikan penjualan 20%, masuk ke LQ 45 meningkatkan daya tarik untuk minvestor asing)
SMRA target Rp 800 (proyeksi penjualan dan pendapatan meninmgkat 15%, proyek2 strategist, rendahnya valuasi dibanding sektor)
BKDP target Rp 230 (buy back saham rencana perseroan membangun hunian menengah atas dan apartemen di Surabaya, proyeks di jembatan Suramadu)
Commodity
Harian Kontan edisi 04 Januari 2010
Prospek Saham Indonesia & Investasi Global 2010 PT Universal Broker Indonesia (total 48 Halaman) Securities (TF): Halaman 33 - 40.
Daily Investment News Update
Bob Doll: 2010 Predictions
By: Patti Domm CNBC Executive Editor
Blackrock Vice Chairman Bob Doll says 2010 will be positive for stocks but there could be bumps along the way.Asked by CNBC if a 10 percent correction is possible, he said, "Yes I'd be surprised if we didn't see a 10."Doll said the market could be due for a correction steeper than the shallow selloffs seen since the market's rally began in March.He also said it may be that there are some bumps in the first half of the year in contrast to the popular expectation that the market sees smooth sailing early in the year but struggles later in the year. "It may be that it's more even," he said.
Blackrock's Bob Doll predictions for 2010:
* S&P 500 probable level of 1250
* Sees emerging markets outperform developed markets
* Sees U.S. outperforming other developed markets
* Sees possible earnings growth of 20% Plus
* U.S. economy grows at an above trend 3%
* Job growth turns positive early in the year but unemployment remains high
* Sees inflation as a non-issue
* Expects rates to rise at all points on Treasury curve including Fed funds
* Stocks outperform cash and treasuries
* Likes health care, tech and telecom — Underweights financials utilities and materials
* Merger activity picks up due to strong cash flow and slow growth
* GOP makes gains in House and Senate but Democrats continue to control Congress
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34726574
If Fed Missed This Bubble, Will It See a New One?
By: David Leonhardt The New York Times
If only we’d had more power, we could have kept the financial crisis from getting so bad.That has been the position of Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, and other regulators. It explains why Mr. Bernanke and the Obama administration are pushing Congress to give the Fed more authority over financial firms.So let’s consider what an empowered Fed might have done during the housing bubble, based on the words of the people who were running it.In 2004, Alan Greenspan, then the chairman, said the rise in home values was “not enough in our judgment to raise major concerns.” In 2005, Mr. Bernanke — then a Bush administration official — said a housing bubble was “a pretty unlikely possibility.” As late as May 2007, he said that Fed officials “do not expect significant spillovers from the subprime market to the rest of the economy.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34725632
Dorn: Gold And The Dollar
By: Janice Dorn
The Trading Doctor
Since December 22nd, GLD has been bouncing back from a steep and swift sell-off from its early December peak. The question is, can it recover or will it fail to make new highs in 2010?My colleague Tony Cherniawski and I did a simple Elliott Wave analysis with the following outcome:
Let’s review what has happened in 2009 for starters.
The Elliott Wave Pattern shown in the chart and the cycles patterns seem to agree that GLD hit an important high in early December. Although January can be a very good month for the price of gold, it is possible the November has stolen its thunder in a blow-off top. A clearly impulsive pattern through December 3rd is displayed, suggesting at the minimum that a further downside correction is probable.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34726312
Markets 'Still In a Lot of Trouble': Peter Costa
By: JeeYeon Park CNBC News Associate
Markets opened flat on Wednesday, after a pair of private employment readings in anticipation of Friday's U.S. government jobs report. What should investors expect from the markets this month? Peter Costa, president of Empire Executions and CNBC market analyst, shared his insight.“Short term, we wait on data everyday—we’re waiting on Friday’s non-farm payroll numbers,” Costa told CNBC.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34725442
Bank of America’s Bartels Says S&P 500 to Rally on ‘Breakout’
(Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will gain 8 percent after it jumped to a 15-month high, said Mary Ann Bartels, a Bank of America Corp. technical analyst.
Bartels, who predicted in October that U.S. stocks would plunge, said that call was “premature” and she now expects equity markets to add to the biggest yearly rally since 2003.“In the near term more gains are likely,” Bartels wrote in a note to clients yesterday.The advance in the first two days of this year lifted the S&P 500 out of a 3 percent range where trading was confined for most of November and December. The “breakout,” with more stocks rising than falling, suggests the index will climb to as much as 1,230, Bartels said. The S&P yesterday advanced 0.3 percent to 1,136.52, the highest level since October 2008.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=agG4iLU4yzic
Expect Double Dip in Second Quarter: Economist
By: Robin Knight CNBC Assistant Web Producer
The U.S. economy will slip back into recession in the second and third quarter of 2010 as the boost from fiscal stimulus measures and inventory rebuilding wears off, James Shugg, senior economist at Westpac Bank, told CNBC Wednesday."In the second half of this year, starting in the second quarter, a bit of a mismatch is going to take place," Shugg said."You'll see the boost to growth from fiscal stimulus and inventory rebuilding lose momentum and what's left? A consumer that's still inclined to save more than spend, a banking system still dragged down by one in four mortgages being in default," he said.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34723122
Expect a 10% Correction in the Near-Term: Chief Investor
By: JeeYeon Park CNBC News Associate
We are cautious on the markets in the near-term, but bullish in the long run, agreed James Shelton, chief investment officer of Kanaly Trust and Bill Spiropoulos, chief executive of CoreState Capital Advisors. They discussed their 2010 market projections. “You have to realize that the market doesn’t go straight up all the time,” Spiropoulos told CNBC. “So it wouldn’t surprise me to see a minor 5 to 7 percent pullback [in the short-term]. I think it will be contained to less than 10 percent in the U.S. and 20 percent in international markets.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34727370
Fed Likely Won't Raise Rates Until Next Year: Gross
By: CNBC.com
The Federal Reserve likely won't raise short-term interest until 2011 because economic growth and inflation remain weak, Pimco's Bill Gross told CNBC.“The output gap and the core inflation rate is probably heading downward for the next 12 to 24 months," said Gross, the co-chief investment officer and founder of the world's biggest bond fund. "If that’s the case and if unemployment stays close to 10 percent, then there’s no reason for the Fed to begin to raise interest rates." However, the central bank's decision to begin removing some of its stimulus spending from the financial system this year could push the yield on 10-year Treasurys up 0.30 to 0.40 of a percentage point, Gross said.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34731743
BlackRock’s Doll Favors Emerging Economies, Equities
(Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market stocks and economies will outperform the developed world this year, according to Bob Doll, vice chairman and chief investment officer for global equities at BlackRock Inc., the world’s biggest asset manager. Developing economies will grow 5.2 percent in 2010 as industrialized nations expand 2.3 percent, Doll said. Inflation will be a “non-issue” in the U.S., Europe and Japan this year, and American stocks will outperform cash, Treasuries and most other developed markets, Doll said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=alubg_1gux6o
By: Patti Domm CNBC Executive Editor
Blackrock Vice Chairman Bob Doll says 2010 will be positive for stocks but there could be bumps along the way.Asked by CNBC if a 10 percent correction is possible, he said, "Yes I'd be surprised if we didn't see a 10."Doll said the market could be due for a correction steeper than the shallow selloffs seen since the market's rally began in March.He also said it may be that there are some bumps in the first half of the year in contrast to the popular expectation that the market sees smooth sailing early in the year but struggles later in the year. "It may be that it's more even," he said.
Blackrock's Bob Doll predictions for 2010:
* S&P 500 probable level of 1250
* Sees emerging markets outperform developed markets
* Sees U.S. outperforming other developed markets
* Sees possible earnings growth of 20% Plus
* U.S. economy grows at an above trend 3%
* Job growth turns positive early in the year but unemployment remains high
* Sees inflation as a non-issue
* Expects rates to rise at all points on Treasury curve including Fed funds
* Stocks outperform cash and treasuries
* Likes health care, tech and telecom — Underweights financials utilities and materials
* Merger activity picks up due to strong cash flow and slow growth
* GOP makes gains in House and Senate but Democrats continue to control Congress
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34726574
If Fed Missed This Bubble, Will It See a New One?
By: David Leonhardt The New York Times
If only we’d had more power, we could have kept the financial crisis from getting so bad.That has been the position of Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, and other regulators. It explains why Mr. Bernanke and the Obama administration are pushing Congress to give the Fed more authority over financial firms.So let’s consider what an empowered Fed might have done during the housing bubble, based on the words of the people who were running it.In 2004, Alan Greenspan, then the chairman, said the rise in home values was “not enough in our judgment to raise major concerns.” In 2005, Mr. Bernanke — then a Bush administration official — said a housing bubble was “a pretty unlikely possibility.” As late as May 2007, he said that Fed officials “do not expect significant spillovers from the subprime market to the rest of the economy.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34725632
Dorn: Gold And The Dollar
By: Janice Dorn
The Trading Doctor
Since December 22nd, GLD has been bouncing back from a steep and swift sell-off from its early December peak. The question is, can it recover or will it fail to make new highs in 2010?My colleague Tony Cherniawski and I did a simple Elliott Wave analysis with the following outcome:
Let’s review what has happened in 2009 for starters.
The Elliott Wave Pattern shown in the chart and the cycles patterns seem to agree that GLD hit an important high in early December. Although January can be a very good month for the price of gold, it is possible the November has stolen its thunder in a blow-off top. A clearly impulsive pattern through December 3rd is displayed, suggesting at the minimum that a further downside correction is probable.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34726312
Markets 'Still In a Lot of Trouble': Peter Costa
By: JeeYeon Park CNBC News Associate
Markets opened flat on Wednesday, after a pair of private employment readings in anticipation of Friday's U.S. government jobs report. What should investors expect from the markets this month? Peter Costa, president of Empire Executions and CNBC market analyst, shared his insight.“Short term, we wait on data everyday—we’re waiting on Friday’s non-farm payroll numbers,” Costa told CNBC.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34725442
Bank of America’s Bartels Says S&P 500 to Rally on ‘Breakout’
(Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will gain 8 percent after it jumped to a 15-month high, said Mary Ann Bartels, a Bank of America Corp. technical analyst.
Bartels, who predicted in October that U.S. stocks would plunge, said that call was “premature” and she now expects equity markets to add to the biggest yearly rally since 2003.“In the near term more gains are likely,” Bartels wrote in a note to clients yesterday.The advance in the first two days of this year lifted the S&P 500 out of a 3 percent range where trading was confined for most of November and December. The “breakout,” with more stocks rising than falling, suggests the index will climb to as much as 1,230, Bartels said. The S&P yesterday advanced 0.3 percent to 1,136.52, the highest level since October 2008.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=agG4iLU4yzic
Expect Double Dip in Second Quarter: Economist
By: Robin Knight CNBC Assistant Web Producer
The U.S. economy will slip back into recession in the second and third quarter of 2010 as the boost from fiscal stimulus measures and inventory rebuilding wears off, James Shugg, senior economist at Westpac Bank, told CNBC Wednesday."In the second half of this year, starting in the second quarter, a bit of a mismatch is going to take place," Shugg said."You'll see the boost to growth from fiscal stimulus and inventory rebuilding lose momentum and what's left? A consumer that's still inclined to save more than spend, a banking system still dragged down by one in four mortgages being in default," he said.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34723122
Expect a 10% Correction in the Near-Term: Chief Investor
By: JeeYeon Park CNBC News Associate
We are cautious on the markets in the near-term, but bullish in the long run, agreed James Shelton, chief investment officer of Kanaly Trust and Bill Spiropoulos, chief executive of CoreState Capital Advisors. They discussed their 2010 market projections. “You have to realize that the market doesn’t go straight up all the time,” Spiropoulos told CNBC. “So it wouldn’t surprise me to see a minor 5 to 7 percent pullback [in the short-term]. I think it will be contained to less than 10 percent in the U.S. and 20 percent in international markets.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34727370
Fed Likely Won't Raise Rates Until Next Year: Gross
By: CNBC.com
The Federal Reserve likely won't raise short-term interest until 2011 because economic growth and inflation remain weak, Pimco's Bill Gross told CNBC.“The output gap and the core inflation rate is probably heading downward for the next 12 to 24 months," said Gross, the co-chief investment officer and founder of the world's biggest bond fund. "If that’s the case and if unemployment stays close to 10 percent, then there’s no reason for the Fed to begin to raise interest rates." However, the central bank's decision to begin removing some of its stimulus spending from the financial system this year could push the yield on 10-year Treasurys up 0.30 to 0.40 of a percentage point, Gross said.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34731743
BlackRock’s Doll Favors Emerging Economies, Equities
(Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market stocks and economies will outperform the developed world this year, according to Bob Doll, vice chairman and chief investment officer for global equities at BlackRock Inc., the world’s biggest asset manager. Developing economies will grow 5.2 percent in 2010 as industrialized nations expand 2.3 percent, Doll said. Inflation will be a “non-issue” in the U.S., Europe and Japan this year, and American stocks will outperform cash, Treasuries and most other developed markets, Doll said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=alubg_1gux6o
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
The Variety Update News of World Investments
Elliott Waves: Hang Seng Index’s Rally May End This Month: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index may extend gains until the end of the month before falling back below 21,000, according to an Elliott wave analysis by DMG & Partners Securities Pte.The gauge, which closed at 22,279.58 yesterday, appears to be within the initial stages of the final phase of the five-wave market cycle developed by accountant Ralph Nelson Elliott during the Great Depression, said James Lim, an analyst at DMG in Singapore. The Hang Seng Index completed wave four in late December, Lim said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aigovLjQidIw
Pound to Drop on ‘Dead Cross’ Versus Dollar: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The British pound may fall toward a three-month low against the greenback as it is close to forming a so-called “dead cross” trading pattern, according to Gaitame.com Research Institute Ltd.Sterling is nearing a dead cross as the currency’s recent declines push it closer to its longer-term moving average, which normally signals an extended drop, said Kumiko Gervaise, a Tokyo-based currency analyst at the research unit of Gaitame, Japan’s biggest currency margin trader.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aHXV491Oc818
U.S. Two-Year Treasury Futures to Rally: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Treasury two-year futures contracts are poised to rally in January as their slide to their worst month on record in December is likely to reverse, said DZ Bank AG, citing trading patterns. The contract had a so-called bullish engulfing day on Jan. 4, said Andy Cossor, the Hong Kong-based chief market strategist for Asia for Frankfurt-based DZ Bank, Germany’s fifth-largest lender. The pattern occurs on a candlestick chart when a small solid box, which is created by a decline in price, is followed the next day by a large empty box, reflecting a gain. The second candlestick is bigger than, or “engulfs,” the first one.Using the same chart, Cossor, drew a descending line connecting the highs of Dec. 18 and Dec. 31 and extrapolated it to today. The contract is above the line now, a second positive sign.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aTbhW8kyv7m0
DAX May Rally to 6,200 Before ‘Anticlimax’: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Germany’s DAX Index may climb as high as 6,200 in a short-term rally, followed by an “anticlimax” due to overly optimistic investor sentiment and rising interest rates, according to a technical analyst at DZ Bank AG who looks at chart patterns to predict market movements.“Profit taking on the last day of trading for 2009 failed to push the index south of the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the last tertiary upward trend impulse around 5,865,” said DZ Bank’s Armin Kremser, who derived the level from a peak near 6,027 on Dec. 29. “There is an increased likelihood of the positive trend continuing,” he wrote in a report today.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ar4zkVHQdqPY
Oil Rally May Falter at $82, MF Global Says: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil’s rally to a two-month high may sputter around $82 a barrel as the commodity’s relative strength index signals that gains have been excessive, according to technical analysis by MF Global Ltd.Oil advanced for an eighth day in New York today, trading above $81 a barrel for the first time since November, as freezing temperatures around the Northern Hemisphere bolstered the outlook for fuel demand. The surge will probably founder before it reaches last year’s peak of $82 a barrel, MF Global said in a report.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aQNVtOLpKho0
Dollar & GDP To Surprise To The Upside, Says Strategist
By: Lee Brodie Producer
On Tuesday's Fast Money, widely followed strategist Richard Bernstein suggested making bullish bets on the dollar as well as GDP into 2010.In case you’re not familiar with Bernstein, he was renowned for being bearish, but turned bullish over the past few months.
And he's become very bullish. Following are three of his predictions about the dollar.
- The US dollar is likely to meaningfully appreciate once market-driven short-term rates begin to rise.
- US dollar “carry trades” could get killed as 2010 progresses and the US dollar appreciates. Once accounting for leverage, hedge fund performance will likely trail long-only equity performance.
- The Fed will spend the second half of the year trying to catch up to, and flatten, the yield curve. Short-term rates could increase more than investors currently think.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34706717
January Indicator: A First Day Rally Is Positive Sign for Stocks
By: AP
If the stock market holds to a pattern it has followed for most of the past 40 years, 2010 could be a big year for investors.Since 1973, a big advance on the first trading day of January has been a strong sign stocks will post robust gains for the rest of the year. On Monday, upbeat news about manufacturing lifted the Dow Jones industrial average 155 points, or 1.5 percent. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 17 points, or 1.6 percent.When the S&P 500 has gained more than 1 percent on the first day of trading, the index has ended the year higher 86 percent of the time, according to Schaeffer's Investment Research.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34705655
Stocks, Bonds Could Outpace Economy This Year: Prudential
By: Jeff Cox CNBC.com
Investors face a profitable if volatile year ahead as stocks and bonds outpace a sluggish economy, experts at Prudential Financial said Tuesday.US stocks will post gains matching 2009's massive surge while global equities could perform even better, the firm said during a panel discussion in New York. Bond investors may have to be more selective but could see opportunities in corporates and Treasurys, according to the panel.Overall, investors will have to adjust to a different environment than last year, when stocks bounced off generational lows and now will look for firmer footing ahead.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34707234
Volatility Will Increase, US Will Lead in 2010: Marc Faber
By: Antonia Oprita Associate Web Producer, CNBC.com
Markets are likely to be more volatile and US markets are likely to outperform emerging markets in 2010, Marc Faber, author of the Gloom, Doom and Boom Report, told CNBC Wednesday."I think 2009 was an extraordinary year for capital gains because both commodities and stocks became extremely oversold," Faber said in an interview."I think 2010 is a year when capital preservation will be more important because I expect a lot of volatility up and down," he added.Since the lows hit in March, US stocks rose by around 70 percent but emerging markets rose by much more than that, according to Faber, who quoted the example of the Russian market which advanced 220 percent.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34629327
Chinese Equities Rally to Fade This Year, Deutsche Bank Says
(Bloomberg) -- A rally by China’s stocks may fade from the second quarter as inflation triggers “significant policy tightening” by the government and the U.S. economy weakens, Deutsche Bank AG said. The MSCI China Index may still end the year 15 percent higher, Ma Jun, Deutsche Bank’s Hong Kong-based China economist, said in a note to clients. The index tracking mostly Chinese companies traded in Hong Kong jumped 59 percent last year after losing 52 percent in 2008.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aVr8ZlvIn0.U
Emerging Stocks Lose 20% as Mobius Sees IPO Backfire
(Bloomberg) -- Emerging markets are attracting more money from initial public offerings than industrialized nations for the first time ever, a warning sign to Mark Mobius that the record rally in the shares may turn into a 20 percent decline. Faster economic growth may help China, India and Brazil produce the biggest increases in IPOs and almost double sales to $200 billion worldwide, according to Matthew Johnson, the New York-based head of the global-equities syndicate at Barclays Plc. Poland alone may offer more than $10 billion of state-owned companies, according to estimates by UniCredit SpA.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=arKPVdUsBfMY
Emerging Funds End 2009 With Record Flows, EPFR Says
(Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market stocks and bond funds closed 2009 with record annual inflows as a recovery from the global financial crisis boosted demand for riskier assets, according to U.S.-based research company EPFR Global. Emerging-market equity funds received $64.5 billion, while those investing in developing-nation fixed-income securities drew more than $8 billion, EPFR in Cambridge, Massachusetts, said in an e-mailed statement, citing initial figures from funds reporting daily and weekly. Gains last year followed outflows of about $67 billion in 2008, when the failure of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. froze world credit markets. The MSCI Emerging-Markets Index of stocks rallied 75 percent in 2009, the most since the gauge was introduced in 1987. Emerging-market debt produced a 28 percent return, the best since 1996, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s EMBI Global Index.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aSd7EoovbHeA
China May Introduce Index Futures as Early as March
(Bloomberg) -- China’s securities regulator may introduce futures contracts on the country’s stock indexes as early as March, an official with knowledge of the matter said. The State Council, China’s cabinet, has given the China Securities Regulatory Commission approval “in principle” to introduce index futures, said the person, who declined to be identified before an announcement. The first contract, based on China’s CSI 300 Index, may begin trading after the Communist party’s annual congress in March, the official said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aSr2NDaFWWok
China Stocks Set for 2010 Rally, Goldman Sachs Says
(Bloomberg) -- Investors should be positioned for a rally in China stocks in the first quarter of this year, driven by favorable policy and liquidity, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said. “Macro growth momentum and policy variables could dictate the path of returns, which could be skewed to the first and fourth quarters and could show high volatility on tightening concerns,” Thomas Deng and Kinger Lau, analysts at the brokerage, wrote in the report.China’s CSI 300 Index rallied 97 percent last year while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, tracking so-called H shares of Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, rose 62 percent. The results were helped by “aggressive government stimulus globally,” the analysts said. Those measures included 9.2 trillion yuan ($1.35 trillion) of new loans and a $586 billion domestic stimulus package in China.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a1DmmU.kEBMk
Gold May Extend Biggest Rally in Two Months as Dollar Declines
(Bloomberg) -- Gold, little changed in Asia, may extend its biggest rally in two months as the dollar declines, boosting demand for the precious metal. The U.S. currency may weaken against a basket of six counterparts after Federal Reserve Governor Elizabeth Duke said “moderate” economic growth is likely to warrant low interest rates for an “extended period.” Gold rallied 24 percent in 2009 as investors hedged against a declining dollar.“The defining agent of this year’s action will once again be the path that the U.S. dollar eventually takes,” Jon Nadler, senior analyst with Kitco Metals Inc., wrote in a report.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a6gQAD9zShyM
Asia Bond Risk Drops to May 2008 Low on U.S. Economic Optimism
(Bloomberg) -- The cost of protecting Asia-Pacific corporate and sovereign bonds from default fell to the lowest level since May 2008 on optimism a recovery in the world’s largest economy is gathering pace.“Compared with the uncertainties we had last year, there’s more clarity,” Jason Rogers, a credit analyst at Barclays Plc, said in a phone interview from Singapore. “On balance, the outlook is more positive than negative.”
U.S. stocks advanced the most in two months yesterday after a gauge of manufacturing rose more than estimated and freezing weather boosted the price of oil. The S&P 500 rose 1.6 percent to 1,132.99 in New York, its highest close since Oct. 1, 2008.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a37dHz19ejho
Oil to Rise With Dollar, Snap Inverse Link, Archbridge Says
(Bloomberg) -- Oil will extend 2009’s rally this year in tandem with a strengthening dollar, as the resurgent global economy buoys both assets and snaps their inverse relationship, according to Archbridge Capital AG. A decline in the U.S. currency last year aided a 77 percent recovery in crude-oil toward $80 a barrel as investment managers and banks sought higher-yielding alternatives to mitigate the risk of inflation. Global growth in 2010 will bolster the dollar and oil, which will gain on supply constraints, according to Zug-Switzerland-based Archbridge.“Economic growth will propel both the dollar and oil, and break the negative correlation,” Archbridge Chief Investment Officer Hakan Kocayusufpasaoglu said in an interview in London. “Dollar appreciation is on the cards. And oil will go up irrespective due to its fundamentals.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=asCW5kUpvmYM
Copper ‘Breaking Higher,’ $7,760 ‘In Play’: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Copper, which more than doubled last year, is “breaking higher” after passing through a so-called Fibonacci retracement level, according to technical analysis by Dan Smith, an analyst at Standard Chartered Plc. Copper’s rise above $7,495 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange yesterday was a 76.4 percent retracement level, and that means $7,760 a ton is “in play now,” Smith wrote in a report. The $7,760 price is the low the metal reached in June 2008, one month before reaching a record $8,940 a ton.“The break above the previous high suggests we have more room to move upside from here,” London-based Smith said today by phone.Copper had its best year in at least two decades in 2009 as demand in China, the world’s largest buyer, climbed to a record. Prices have advanced another 1 percent this year after workers went on strike in Chile, the world’s largest copper producing nation.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aqEmpfIQAldY
Oil to Average $75 a Barrel This Year, Oppenheimer’s Gheit Says
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil will average $75 a barrel this year, 21 percent higher than in 2009, as the economic recovery boosts demand and hedge and pension funds maintain investment in commodities, according to Oppenheimer & Co. “Demand is likely to improve because the economic outlook is looking positive,” Fadel Gheit, a New York-based analyst at Oppenheimer, said today in a Bloomberg Radio interview. “Oil prices are likely to fluctuate between $65 and $85 and average for the year about $75.”Oil posted its biggest annual gain in a decade last year, recovering from its $100 slump in the second half of 2008 on signs the worst of the global recession was over. Monthly contracts for the rest of this year are already trading at about $75 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, indicating prices will converge around this level, Gheit said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a0gSrqTRdeC4
Palm Oil Has Best Annual Advance in 12 Years on Demand Outlook
(Bloomberg) -- Palm oil jumped 2.6 percent to the highest in more than seven months for the best annual performance in 12 years on anticipation demand will increase from India, the second-biggest consumer.Palm oil, which has more than doubled in the last decade, has rallied 57 percent this year on rising demand from India and China, the biggest user. Tight supplies of soybean oil earlier this year due to drought damage in South America have also fueled price gains.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aUAbjgrFz5bE
Lead, Sugar Top Decade’s Commodity Gains; Lumber Falls
(Bloomberg) -- Lead and sugar futures more than quadrupled since the end of 1999, leading the decade’s gains as of today among 36 commodities in the U.S., Europe and Asia. Three raw materials declined in the 10-year period with lumber prices posting the biggest drop.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a78pGdNYdETk
(Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index may extend gains until the end of the month before falling back below 21,000, according to an Elliott wave analysis by DMG & Partners Securities Pte.The gauge, which closed at 22,279.58 yesterday, appears to be within the initial stages of the final phase of the five-wave market cycle developed by accountant Ralph Nelson Elliott during the Great Depression, said James Lim, an analyst at DMG in Singapore. The Hang Seng Index completed wave four in late December, Lim said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aigovLjQidIw
Pound to Drop on ‘Dead Cross’ Versus Dollar: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The British pound may fall toward a three-month low against the greenback as it is close to forming a so-called “dead cross” trading pattern, according to Gaitame.com Research Institute Ltd.Sterling is nearing a dead cross as the currency’s recent declines push it closer to its longer-term moving average, which normally signals an extended drop, said Kumiko Gervaise, a Tokyo-based currency analyst at the research unit of Gaitame, Japan’s biggest currency margin trader.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aHXV491Oc818
U.S. Two-Year Treasury Futures to Rally: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Treasury two-year futures contracts are poised to rally in January as their slide to their worst month on record in December is likely to reverse, said DZ Bank AG, citing trading patterns. The contract had a so-called bullish engulfing day on Jan. 4, said Andy Cossor, the Hong Kong-based chief market strategist for Asia for Frankfurt-based DZ Bank, Germany’s fifth-largest lender. The pattern occurs on a candlestick chart when a small solid box, which is created by a decline in price, is followed the next day by a large empty box, reflecting a gain. The second candlestick is bigger than, or “engulfs,” the first one.Using the same chart, Cossor, drew a descending line connecting the highs of Dec. 18 and Dec. 31 and extrapolated it to today. The contract is above the line now, a second positive sign.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aTbhW8kyv7m0
DAX May Rally to 6,200 Before ‘Anticlimax’: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Germany’s DAX Index may climb as high as 6,200 in a short-term rally, followed by an “anticlimax” due to overly optimistic investor sentiment and rising interest rates, according to a technical analyst at DZ Bank AG who looks at chart patterns to predict market movements.“Profit taking on the last day of trading for 2009 failed to push the index south of the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the last tertiary upward trend impulse around 5,865,” said DZ Bank’s Armin Kremser, who derived the level from a peak near 6,027 on Dec. 29. “There is an increased likelihood of the positive trend continuing,” he wrote in a report today.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ar4zkVHQdqPY
Oil Rally May Falter at $82, MF Global Says: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil’s rally to a two-month high may sputter around $82 a barrel as the commodity’s relative strength index signals that gains have been excessive, according to technical analysis by MF Global Ltd.Oil advanced for an eighth day in New York today, trading above $81 a barrel for the first time since November, as freezing temperatures around the Northern Hemisphere bolstered the outlook for fuel demand. The surge will probably founder before it reaches last year’s peak of $82 a barrel, MF Global said in a report.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aQNVtOLpKho0
Dollar & GDP To Surprise To The Upside, Says Strategist
By: Lee Brodie Producer
On Tuesday's Fast Money, widely followed strategist Richard Bernstein suggested making bullish bets on the dollar as well as GDP into 2010.In case you’re not familiar with Bernstein, he was renowned for being bearish, but turned bullish over the past few months.
And he's become very bullish. Following are three of his predictions about the dollar.
- The US dollar is likely to meaningfully appreciate once market-driven short-term rates begin to rise.
- US dollar “carry trades” could get killed as 2010 progresses and the US dollar appreciates. Once accounting for leverage, hedge fund performance will likely trail long-only equity performance.
- The Fed will spend the second half of the year trying to catch up to, and flatten, the yield curve. Short-term rates could increase more than investors currently think.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34706717
January Indicator: A First Day Rally Is Positive Sign for Stocks
By: AP
If the stock market holds to a pattern it has followed for most of the past 40 years, 2010 could be a big year for investors.Since 1973, a big advance on the first trading day of January has been a strong sign stocks will post robust gains for the rest of the year. On Monday, upbeat news about manufacturing lifted the Dow Jones industrial average 155 points, or 1.5 percent. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 17 points, or 1.6 percent.When the S&P 500 has gained more than 1 percent on the first day of trading, the index has ended the year higher 86 percent of the time, according to Schaeffer's Investment Research.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34705655
Stocks, Bonds Could Outpace Economy This Year: Prudential
By: Jeff Cox CNBC.com
Investors face a profitable if volatile year ahead as stocks and bonds outpace a sluggish economy, experts at Prudential Financial said Tuesday.US stocks will post gains matching 2009's massive surge while global equities could perform even better, the firm said during a panel discussion in New York. Bond investors may have to be more selective but could see opportunities in corporates and Treasurys, according to the panel.Overall, investors will have to adjust to a different environment than last year, when stocks bounced off generational lows and now will look for firmer footing ahead.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34707234
Volatility Will Increase, US Will Lead in 2010: Marc Faber
By: Antonia Oprita Associate Web Producer, CNBC.com
Markets are likely to be more volatile and US markets are likely to outperform emerging markets in 2010, Marc Faber, author of the Gloom, Doom and Boom Report, told CNBC Wednesday."I think 2009 was an extraordinary year for capital gains because both commodities and stocks became extremely oversold," Faber said in an interview."I think 2010 is a year when capital preservation will be more important because I expect a lot of volatility up and down," he added.Since the lows hit in March, US stocks rose by around 70 percent but emerging markets rose by much more than that, according to Faber, who quoted the example of the Russian market which advanced 220 percent.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34629327
Chinese Equities Rally to Fade This Year, Deutsche Bank Says
(Bloomberg) -- A rally by China’s stocks may fade from the second quarter as inflation triggers “significant policy tightening” by the government and the U.S. economy weakens, Deutsche Bank AG said. The MSCI China Index may still end the year 15 percent higher, Ma Jun, Deutsche Bank’s Hong Kong-based China economist, said in a note to clients. The index tracking mostly Chinese companies traded in Hong Kong jumped 59 percent last year after losing 52 percent in 2008.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aVr8ZlvIn0.U
Emerging Stocks Lose 20% as Mobius Sees IPO Backfire
(Bloomberg) -- Emerging markets are attracting more money from initial public offerings than industrialized nations for the first time ever, a warning sign to Mark Mobius that the record rally in the shares may turn into a 20 percent decline. Faster economic growth may help China, India and Brazil produce the biggest increases in IPOs and almost double sales to $200 billion worldwide, according to Matthew Johnson, the New York-based head of the global-equities syndicate at Barclays Plc. Poland alone may offer more than $10 billion of state-owned companies, according to estimates by UniCredit SpA.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=arKPVdUsBfMY
Emerging Funds End 2009 With Record Flows, EPFR Says
(Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market stocks and bond funds closed 2009 with record annual inflows as a recovery from the global financial crisis boosted demand for riskier assets, according to U.S.-based research company EPFR Global. Emerging-market equity funds received $64.5 billion, while those investing in developing-nation fixed-income securities drew more than $8 billion, EPFR in Cambridge, Massachusetts, said in an e-mailed statement, citing initial figures from funds reporting daily and weekly. Gains last year followed outflows of about $67 billion in 2008, when the failure of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. froze world credit markets. The MSCI Emerging-Markets Index of stocks rallied 75 percent in 2009, the most since the gauge was introduced in 1987. Emerging-market debt produced a 28 percent return, the best since 1996, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s EMBI Global Index.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aSd7EoovbHeA
China May Introduce Index Futures as Early as March
(Bloomberg) -- China’s securities regulator may introduce futures contracts on the country’s stock indexes as early as March, an official with knowledge of the matter said. The State Council, China’s cabinet, has given the China Securities Regulatory Commission approval “in principle” to introduce index futures, said the person, who declined to be identified before an announcement. The first contract, based on China’s CSI 300 Index, may begin trading after the Communist party’s annual congress in March, the official said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aSr2NDaFWWok
China Stocks Set for 2010 Rally, Goldman Sachs Says
(Bloomberg) -- Investors should be positioned for a rally in China stocks in the first quarter of this year, driven by favorable policy and liquidity, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said. “Macro growth momentum and policy variables could dictate the path of returns, which could be skewed to the first and fourth quarters and could show high volatility on tightening concerns,” Thomas Deng and Kinger Lau, analysts at the brokerage, wrote in the report.China’s CSI 300 Index rallied 97 percent last year while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, tracking so-called H shares of Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, rose 62 percent. The results were helped by “aggressive government stimulus globally,” the analysts said. Those measures included 9.2 trillion yuan ($1.35 trillion) of new loans and a $586 billion domestic stimulus package in China.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a1DmmU.kEBMk
Gold May Extend Biggest Rally in Two Months as Dollar Declines
(Bloomberg) -- Gold, little changed in Asia, may extend its biggest rally in two months as the dollar declines, boosting demand for the precious metal. The U.S. currency may weaken against a basket of six counterparts after Federal Reserve Governor Elizabeth Duke said “moderate” economic growth is likely to warrant low interest rates for an “extended period.” Gold rallied 24 percent in 2009 as investors hedged against a declining dollar.“The defining agent of this year’s action will once again be the path that the U.S. dollar eventually takes,” Jon Nadler, senior analyst with Kitco Metals Inc., wrote in a report.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a6gQAD9zShyM
Asia Bond Risk Drops to May 2008 Low on U.S. Economic Optimism
(Bloomberg) -- The cost of protecting Asia-Pacific corporate and sovereign bonds from default fell to the lowest level since May 2008 on optimism a recovery in the world’s largest economy is gathering pace.“Compared with the uncertainties we had last year, there’s more clarity,” Jason Rogers, a credit analyst at Barclays Plc, said in a phone interview from Singapore. “On balance, the outlook is more positive than negative.”
U.S. stocks advanced the most in two months yesterday after a gauge of manufacturing rose more than estimated and freezing weather boosted the price of oil. The S&P 500 rose 1.6 percent to 1,132.99 in New York, its highest close since Oct. 1, 2008.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a37dHz19ejho
Oil to Rise With Dollar, Snap Inverse Link, Archbridge Says
(Bloomberg) -- Oil will extend 2009’s rally this year in tandem with a strengthening dollar, as the resurgent global economy buoys both assets and snaps their inverse relationship, according to Archbridge Capital AG. A decline in the U.S. currency last year aided a 77 percent recovery in crude-oil toward $80 a barrel as investment managers and banks sought higher-yielding alternatives to mitigate the risk of inflation. Global growth in 2010 will bolster the dollar and oil, which will gain on supply constraints, according to Zug-Switzerland-based Archbridge.“Economic growth will propel both the dollar and oil, and break the negative correlation,” Archbridge Chief Investment Officer Hakan Kocayusufpasaoglu said in an interview in London. “Dollar appreciation is on the cards. And oil will go up irrespective due to its fundamentals.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=asCW5kUpvmYM
Copper ‘Breaking Higher,’ $7,760 ‘In Play’: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Copper, which more than doubled last year, is “breaking higher” after passing through a so-called Fibonacci retracement level, according to technical analysis by Dan Smith, an analyst at Standard Chartered Plc. Copper’s rise above $7,495 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange yesterday was a 76.4 percent retracement level, and that means $7,760 a ton is “in play now,” Smith wrote in a report. The $7,760 price is the low the metal reached in June 2008, one month before reaching a record $8,940 a ton.“The break above the previous high suggests we have more room to move upside from here,” London-based Smith said today by phone.Copper had its best year in at least two decades in 2009 as demand in China, the world’s largest buyer, climbed to a record. Prices have advanced another 1 percent this year after workers went on strike in Chile, the world’s largest copper producing nation.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aqEmpfIQAldY
Oil to Average $75 a Barrel This Year, Oppenheimer’s Gheit Says
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil will average $75 a barrel this year, 21 percent higher than in 2009, as the economic recovery boosts demand and hedge and pension funds maintain investment in commodities, according to Oppenheimer & Co. “Demand is likely to improve because the economic outlook is looking positive,” Fadel Gheit, a New York-based analyst at Oppenheimer, said today in a Bloomberg Radio interview. “Oil prices are likely to fluctuate between $65 and $85 and average for the year about $75.”Oil posted its biggest annual gain in a decade last year, recovering from its $100 slump in the second half of 2008 on signs the worst of the global recession was over. Monthly contracts for the rest of this year are already trading at about $75 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, indicating prices will converge around this level, Gheit said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a0gSrqTRdeC4
Palm Oil Has Best Annual Advance in 12 Years on Demand Outlook
(Bloomberg) -- Palm oil jumped 2.6 percent to the highest in more than seven months for the best annual performance in 12 years on anticipation demand will increase from India, the second-biggest consumer.Palm oil, which has more than doubled in the last decade, has rallied 57 percent this year on rising demand from India and China, the biggest user. Tight supplies of soybean oil earlier this year due to drought damage in South America have also fueled price gains.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aUAbjgrFz5bE
Lead, Sugar Top Decade’s Commodity Gains; Lumber Falls
(Bloomberg) -- Lead and sugar futures more than quadrupled since the end of 1999, leading the decade’s gains as of today among 36 commodities in the U.S., Europe and Asia. Three raw materials declined in the 10-year period with lumber prices posting the biggest drop.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a78pGdNYdETk
Monday, January 4, 2010
Year in Review: Stocks, Commodities Rally
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks posted the biggest annual gain since 2003 and commodities rallied as the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate near zero and governments around the world enacted stimulus programs to halt the first global recession since World War II.Click here for a wrap-up of the world’s markets in 2009. See the VIDEO tab above for more on the Year in Review from Bloomberg Television. Click here for a slideshow presentation from Bloomberg BusinessWeek magazine, “The Unbelievable Quotes, Acts and Ideas of 2009.”
Following are more stories looking back on the past year and previewing 2010.
Citigroup, Marshall & Ilsley Post Biggest S&P Drops
Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc. and Marshall & Ilsley Corp. were among the worst performing stocks in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index this year, dragged down by defaults on commercial and residential property loans that may extend declines into 2010.
U.S. Treasuries Post Worst Performance Among Sovereign Markets
Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries fell, posting the worst performance this year among sovereign debt markets as the U.S. sold record amounts of securities, including $118 billion of notes this week, to help spur a recovery from recession.
Tax-Free Shortage May Repeat Muni Debt Outperforming Treasuries
Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Tax-exempt bonds may return more than Treasuries for a second straight year, paced by the biggest increase in taxable state and local issues as U.S. income tax rates are poised to rise in 2011.
M&A Rebound Years Away as Morgan Stanley Sees ‘Gentle Recovery’
Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Takeover advisers who cheered a surprise fourth-quarter surge in mergers and acquisitions may still have years to wait for a return to 2007’s record dealmaking.
Goldman Sachs Takes Biggest Share of $923 Million U.S. IPO Fees
Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. won the biggest share of the $923 million in fees from U.S. initial public offerings this year, while Citigroup Inc. fell out of the top five after its revenue plummeted more than 50 percent.
Decade’s Worst Funds Never Recovered From Technology-Stock Bust
Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock mutual funds with the biggest losses in the past 10 years, a list topped by Fidelity Growth Strategies and Vanguard U.S. Growth, were crushed by the market sell-off at the start of the decade and never recovered.
Yuan Forwards Rose 5% in 2009 as Recovery Spurred Bets on Gains
Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) -- China’s 12-month yuan forwards gained 5 percent this year as the economy’s recovery from the slowest growth this decade fanned speculation policy makers will allow the currency to resume appreciation. Local bonds fell.
Rupiah Is Asia’s Top Performer as Yields, Growth Attract Funds
Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Indonesia’s rupiah posted its biggest annual advance in seven years as signs the global economy is recovering from the recession encouraged overseas investors to return to emerging-market assets.
Russia Unbeatable to Stock Funds as Kudrin Says Prices Too High
Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Russia is the top investment pick for the biggest emerging-market stock funds in 2010, even after the RTS Index’s world-beating 129 percent rally prompted Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin to say shares are too expensive.
Raphael’s $47.5 Million Muse Beats Matisse to Top 2009 Prices
Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- While the art market shrank in 2009, many individual artworks achieved strong results at auction.
Next Decade Will Be Good One for Stock Investors: Matthew Lynn
Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Even the most practiced soothsayer will struggle to make any detailed predictions for the next 10 years. It’s hard enough to know what will happen in the markets in January 2010, never mind December 2019.
Eight Things for Markets to Watch Out for in 2010: Matthew Lynn
Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- No one can complain that the last two years have been light on drama. We had the worst financial crash in living memory, and some of the biggest banks in the world effectively came under state control.
My Casualty List Shows Stocks Ready to Rebound: John Dorfman
Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- From 1999 through early 2007, I compiled a quarterly Casualty List of banged-up stocks that I believed had good rebound potential.
Obama’s Foreign-Policy Team Bests Economy Stars: Albert Hunt
Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- A year ago, the expectation was that President-elect Barack Obama’s economic team would be a smooth- functioning machine, and the outlook was for turbulence in the national-security arena.
‘New Normal’ Tops 2009 Overused Phrases List: Caroline Baum
Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- For journalists, pundits and comedians, the end of the year provides an opportunity to look back, fantasize forward and let the creative juices flow.
Oil to Average $75 a Barrel This Year, Oppenheimer’s Gheit Says
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil will average $75 a barrel this year, 21 percent higher than in 2009, as the economic recovery boosts demand and hedge and pension funds maintain investment in commodities, according to Oppenheimer & Co.“Demand is likely to improve because the economic outlook is looking positive,” Fadel Gheit, a New York-based analyst at Oppenheimer, said today in a Bloomberg Radio interview. “Oil prices are likely to fluctuate between $65 and $85 and average for the year about $75.”Oil posted its biggest annual gain in a decade last year, recovering from its $100 slump in the second half of 2008 on signs the worst of the global recession was over. Monthly contracts for the rest of this year are already trading at about $75 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, indicating prices will converge around this level, Gheit said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a0gSrqTRdeC4
Oil Rally May Falter at $82, MF Global Says: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil’s rally to a two-month high may sputter around $82 a barrel as the commodity’s relative strength index signals that gains have been excessive, according to technical analysis by MF Global Ltd. Oil advanced for an eighth day in New York today, trading above $81 a barrel for the first time since November, as freezing temperatures around the Northern Hemisphere bolstered the outlook for fuel demand. The surge will probably founder before it reaches last year’s peak of $82 a barrel, MF Global said in a report.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aQNVtOLpKho0
Following are more stories looking back on the past year and previewing 2010.
Citigroup, Marshall & Ilsley Post Biggest S&P Drops
Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc. and Marshall & Ilsley Corp. were among the worst performing stocks in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index this year, dragged down by defaults on commercial and residential property loans that may extend declines into 2010.
U.S. Treasuries Post Worst Performance Among Sovereign Markets
Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries fell, posting the worst performance this year among sovereign debt markets as the U.S. sold record amounts of securities, including $118 billion of notes this week, to help spur a recovery from recession.
Tax-Free Shortage May Repeat Muni Debt Outperforming Treasuries
Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Tax-exempt bonds may return more than Treasuries for a second straight year, paced by the biggest increase in taxable state and local issues as U.S. income tax rates are poised to rise in 2011.
M&A Rebound Years Away as Morgan Stanley Sees ‘Gentle Recovery’
Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Takeover advisers who cheered a surprise fourth-quarter surge in mergers and acquisitions may still have years to wait for a return to 2007’s record dealmaking.
Goldman Sachs Takes Biggest Share of $923 Million U.S. IPO Fees
Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. won the biggest share of the $923 million in fees from U.S. initial public offerings this year, while Citigroup Inc. fell out of the top five after its revenue plummeted more than 50 percent.
Decade’s Worst Funds Never Recovered From Technology-Stock Bust
Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock mutual funds with the biggest losses in the past 10 years, a list topped by Fidelity Growth Strategies and Vanguard U.S. Growth, were crushed by the market sell-off at the start of the decade and never recovered.
Yuan Forwards Rose 5% in 2009 as Recovery Spurred Bets on Gains
Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) -- China’s 12-month yuan forwards gained 5 percent this year as the economy’s recovery from the slowest growth this decade fanned speculation policy makers will allow the currency to resume appreciation. Local bonds fell.
Rupiah Is Asia’s Top Performer as Yields, Growth Attract Funds
Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Indonesia’s rupiah posted its biggest annual advance in seven years as signs the global economy is recovering from the recession encouraged overseas investors to return to emerging-market assets.
Russia Unbeatable to Stock Funds as Kudrin Says Prices Too High
Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Russia is the top investment pick for the biggest emerging-market stock funds in 2010, even after the RTS Index’s world-beating 129 percent rally prompted Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin to say shares are too expensive.
Raphael’s $47.5 Million Muse Beats Matisse to Top 2009 Prices
Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- While the art market shrank in 2009, many individual artworks achieved strong results at auction.
Next Decade Will Be Good One for Stock Investors: Matthew Lynn
Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Even the most practiced soothsayer will struggle to make any detailed predictions for the next 10 years. It’s hard enough to know what will happen in the markets in January 2010, never mind December 2019.
Eight Things for Markets to Watch Out for in 2010: Matthew Lynn
Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- No one can complain that the last two years have been light on drama. We had the worst financial crash in living memory, and some of the biggest banks in the world effectively came under state control.
My Casualty List Shows Stocks Ready to Rebound: John Dorfman
Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- From 1999 through early 2007, I compiled a quarterly Casualty List of banged-up stocks that I believed had good rebound potential.
Obama’s Foreign-Policy Team Bests Economy Stars: Albert Hunt
Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- A year ago, the expectation was that President-elect Barack Obama’s economic team would be a smooth- functioning machine, and the outlook was for turbulence in the national-security arena.
‘New Normal’ Tops 2009 Overused Phrases List: Caroline Baum
Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- For journalists, pundits and comedians, the end of the year provides an opportunity to look back, fantasize forward and let the creative juices flow.
Oil to Average $75 a Barrel This Year, Oppenheimer’s Gheit Says
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil will average $75 a barrel this year, 21 percent higher than in 2009, as the economic recovery boosts demand and hedge and pension funds maintain investment in commodities, according to Oppenheimer & Co.“Demand is likely to improve because the economic outlook is looking positive,” Fadel Gheit, a New York-based analyst at Oppenheimer, said today in a Bloomberg Radio interview. “Oil prices are likely to fluctuate between $65 and $85 and average for the year about $75.”Oil posted its biggest annual gain in a decade last year, recovering from its $100 slump in the second half of 2008 on signs the worst of the global recession was over. Monthly contracts for the rest of this year are already trading at about $75 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, indicating prices will converge around this level, Gheit said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a0gSrqTRdeC4
Oil Rally May Falter at $82, MF Global Says: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil’s rally to a two-month high may sputter around $82 a barrel as the commodity’s relative strength index signals that gains have been excessive, according to technical analysis by MF Global Ltd. Oil advanced for an eighth day in New York today, trading above $81 a barrel for the first time since November, as freezing temperatures around the Northern Hemisphere bolstered the outlook for fuel demand. The surge will probably founder before it reaches last year’s peak of $82 a barrel, MF Global said in a report.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aQNVtOLpKho0
Update: Variety of Stocks Daily News
Emerging Stocks to Extend Rally, Credit Suisse Says
(Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market stocks may gain more than 20 percent this year, extending their biggest annual advance on record, boosted by a sustained recovery in the U.S. economy, Credit Suisse Group AG said. Shares in developing nations have climbed 16 percent since the U.S. Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose above the 50 level that indicates expansion in August, Credit Suisse analysts Sakthi Siva and Kin Nang Chik wrote in a report dated today. That compares with an average 12-month rally of 41 percent the previous three times the index breached and remained above the 50 level, the analysts said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aipfy4SuKmFs
Buffett Ends 2009 Trailing S&P 500 by Most in Decade
(Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett recorded his worst performance against the stock market in a decade last year after committing $26 billion to a railroad takeover and lowering his expectations for investment returns. Berkshire Hathaway Inc., the company Buffett has led as chairman for more than four decades, advanced 2.7 percent on the New York Stock Exchange in 2009, less than the 23 percent return in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. It was Berkshire’s worst showing since falling 20 percent in 1999, compared with a 20 percent gain in the index. Berkshire beat the index in 15 of the last 22 years.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a6eVUDYbXX1U
Malaysian Stocks Rally May ‘Peak’ in April or May, OSK Says
(Bloomberg) -- Malaysia’s stock market rally may end in April or May as risk aversion sets in, OSK Research Sdn. said. There is a “good four to five months of a bullish uptrend left before the market turns south,” OSK analysts Chris Eng and Lim Mei Ching said in a report today. “We advocate a gradual repositioning towards dividend yielding stocks.”State-controlled fixed-line telephone operator Telekom Malaysia Bhd., Yi-Lai Bhd., a ceramic tile maker, and lottery company Berjaya Sports Toto Bhd. are among OSK’s list of stocks that have estimated dividend yields of 8 percent to 9 percent for 2010.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=apVxzDfQvX24
Stock Returns Crushing Bonds With Record Divergence
(Bloomberg) -- Never have Treasuries underperformed stocks as much as in 2009, and the world’s biggest bond dealers say this year may offer more of the same as the U.S. economy recovers and unemployment abates. After soaring 14 percent in 2008 when credit markets froze, Treasuries fell 3.72 percent on average last year. Investors shunned government debt while the U.S. raised a record $2.11 trillion selling securities amid signs that the worst slump since the 1930s had ended. The losses for Treasuries contrast with the Standard & Poor’s 500’s 23.5 percent gain.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a4Q1NEbwhFLI
2010 'Great' For Stocks—But Dangerous at Year's End: Strategists
By: JeeYeon Park CNBC News Associate
Stocks are rallying on the first trading day of the new year, so will the trend continue throughout 2010? Jason Trennert, chief investment strategist and managing partner at Strategas Research Partners, and Kelly Campbell, founder and principal of Campbell Wealth Management, shared their market outlooks. “We’re going to see some great things in 2010, but we still have to be cautious,” Campbell told CNBC. “A lot of people are looking for the market to do well, but if it does too well, it could fall back a little bit.”Campbell warned that the US government may change interest rates, which could be negative for the markets.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34687177
Pros: Dow to Rally to 12,000; Peak Gold Possible
By: CNBC.com
As investors return from the holiday break and look back on one of the best years for US stocks since 2003, many will likely question whether there is any momentum left in the markets. One market expert told CNBC that the positive returns could hold for at least the first quarter of 2010, but after that stocks would likely be stuck in a tight trading range."We think that the Dow will continue to climb. I'm sure that the Dow will probably go close to 12,000 (points) within the first 3-4 months of this year… Then I'm expecting sideways movement and I think you'll probably be range trading for the rest of the year," Peter McGuire, managing director of CWA Global Markets, told CNBC.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34685079
Stiglitz Says Emerging Nations Need to Control Capital Flows
(Bloomberg) -- Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel Prize- winning economist, said emerging countries should be able to control the flow of capital from developed nations to keep asset bubbles from developing. Stiglitz, speaking at a conference in Atlanta, said there is “a real concern in emerging markets” that low interest rates in developed nations including the U.S. and the U.K. are “being transmitted to bubbles in emerging markets.” As a result, countries such as Brazil and India “have to put on circuit breakers.”“Most of the shocks do come from the supply side, from the creditor countries,” Stiglitz said today at a conference sponsored by the Allied Social Science Associations.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aeDOqU481aRE
Pessimism on U.S. Stocks Drops to Lowest Since 1987
(Bloomberg) -- Pessimism about U.S. stocks among newsletter writers fell to the lowest level since April 1987, six months before the equity market crash known as Black Monday, following the biggest rally in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index in seven decades.The proportion of bearish publications among about 140 tracked by Investors Intelligence fell to 15.6 percent yesterday from 16.7 percent a week earlier. Sentiment has improved since October 2008, when the financial crisis drove the figure to a 14-year high of 54.4 percent. After plunging 38 percent in 2008, the S&P 500 has risen 25 percent this year.Some analysts consider lower pessimism a sign stocks will stop advancing, under the theory that there are fewer bearish investors left to change their minds and purchase shares. The S&P 500 plunged 20 percent on Oct. 19, 1987.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a90gNI2frMV0
(Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market stocks may gain more than 20 percent this year, extending their biggest annual advance on record, boosted by a sustained recovery in the U.S. economy, Credit Suisse Group AG said. Shares in developing nations have climbed 16 percent since the U.S. Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose above the 50 level that indicates expansion in August, Credit Suisse analysts Sakthi Siva and Kin Nang Chik wrote in a report dated today. That compares with an average 12-month rally of 41 percent the previous three times the index breached and remained above the 50 level, the analysts said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aipfy4SuKmFs
Buffett Ends 2009 Trailing S&P 500 by Most in Decade
(Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett recorded his worst performance against the stock market in a decade last year after committing $26 billion to a railroad takeover and lowering his expectations for investment returns. Berkshire Hathaway Inc., the company Buffett has led as chairman for more than four decades, advanced 2.7 percent on the New York Stock Exchange in 2009, less than the 23 percent return in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. It was Berkshire’s worst showing since falling 20 percent in 1999, compared with a 20 percent gain in the index. Berkshire beat the index in 15 of the last 22 years.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a6eVUDYbXX1U
Malaysian Stocks Rally May ‘Peak’ in April or May, OSK Says
(Bloomberg) -- Malaysia’s stock market rally may end in April or May as risk aversion sets in, OSK Research Sdn. said. There is a “good four to five months of a bullish uptrend left before the market turns south,” OSK analysts Chris Eng and Lim Mei Ching said in a report today. “We advocate a gradual repositioning towards dividend yielding stocks.”State-controlled fixed-line telephone operator Telekom Malaysia Bhd., Yi-Lai Bhd., a ceramic tile maker, and lottery company Berjaya Sports Toto Bhd. are among OSK’s list of stocks that have estimated dividend yields of 8 percent to 9 percent for 2010.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=apVxzDfQvX24
Stock Returns Crushing Bonds With Record Divergence
(Bloomberg) -- Never have Treasuries underperformed stocks as much as in 2009, and the world’s biggest bond dealers say this year may offer more of the same as the U.S. economy recovers and unemployment abates. After soaring 14 percent in 2008 when credit markets froze, Treasuries fell 3.72 percent on average last year. Investors shunned government debt while the U.S. raised a record $2.11 trillion selling securities amid signs that the worst slump since the 1930s had ended. The losses for Treasuries contrast with the Standard & Poor’s 500’s 23.5 percent gain.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a4Q1NEbwhFLI
2010 'Great' For Stocks—But Dangerous at Year's End: Strategists
By: JeeYeon Park CNBC News Associate
Stocks are rallying on the first trading day of the new year, so will the trend continue throughout 2010? Jason Trennert, chief investment strategist and managing partner at Strategas Research Partners, and Kelly Campbell, founder and principal of Campbell Wealth Management, shared their market outlooks. “We’re going to see some great things in 2010, but we still have to be cautious,” Campbell told CNBC. “A lot of people are looking for the market to do well, but if it does too well, it could fall back a little bit.”Campbell warned that the US government may change interest rates, which could be negative for the markets.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34687177
Pros: Dow to Rally to 12,000; Peak Gold Possible
By: CNBC.com
As investors return from the holiday break and look back on one of the best years for US stocks since 2003, many will likely question whether there is any momentum left in the markets. One market expert told CNBC that the positive returns could hold for at least the first quarter of 2010, but after that stocks would likely be stuck in a tight trading range."We think that the Dow will continue to climb. I'm sure that the Dow will probably go close to 12,000 (points) within the first 3-4 months of this year… Then I'm expecting sideways movement and I think you'll probably be range trading for the rest of the year," Peter McGuire, managing director of CWA Global Markets, told CNBC.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34685079
Stiglitz Says Emerging Nations Need to Control Capital Flows
(Bloomberg) -- Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel Prize- winning economist, said emerging countries should be able to control the flow of capital from developed nations to keep asset bubbles from developing. Stiglitz, speaking at a conference in Atlanta, said there is “a real concern in emerging markets” that low interest rates in developed nations including the U.S. and the U.K. are “being transmitted to bubbles in emerging markets.” As a result, countries such as Brazil and India “have to put on circuit breakers.”“Most of the shocks do come from the supply side, from the creditor countries,” Stiglitz said today at a conference sponsored by the Allied Social Science Associations.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aeDOqU481aRE
Pessimism on U.S. Stocks Drops to Lowest Since 1987
(Bloomberg) -- Pessimism about U.S. stocks among newsletter writers fell to the lowest level since April 1987, six months before the equity market crash known as Black Monday, following the biggest rally in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index in seven decades.The proportion of bearish publications among about 140 tracked by Investors Intelligence fell to 15.6 percent yesterday from 16.7 percent a week earlier. Sentiment has improved since October 2008, when the financial crisis drove the figure to a 14-year high of 54.4 percent. After plunging 38 percent in 2008, the S&P 500 has risen 25 percent this year.Some analysts consider lower pessimism a sign stocks will stop advancing, under the theory that there are fewer bearish investors left to change their minds and purchase shares. The S&P 500 plunged 20 percent on Oct. 19, 1987.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a90gNI2frMV0
World Investment Outlook (Equity+20 Stocks in IHSG/FX/Bond/Commodity) 2010
To be released World Investment Outlook 2010 on 11 - 01 - 2010.
For a time being, my blog (globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com) to be suspended or removed to a new blog/web in 1-2 months to go to become a Combo Strategic blog (Fundamentak Analysis/Technical Analysis/Flowtist/Rumors/Schedule of Trainings/etc) Thank you for all reader that have been consistently to see my blog. I really appreciate it very much. Wish u all reader the best for getting the better outcome in your investment or trading. Happy New Year. May Allah Bless You All.
For a time being, my blog (globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com) to be suspended or removed to a new blog/web in 1-2 months to go to become a Combo Strategic blog (Fundamentak Analysis/Technical Analysis/Flowtist/Rumors/Schedule of Trainings/etc) Thank you for all reader that have been consistently to see my blog. I really appreciate it very much. Wish u all reader the best for getting the better outcome in your investment or trading. Happy New Year. May Allah Bless You All.
Track Record Saham IHSG (17 Juni - 30 Desember 2009 = 27 Pekan)
Track Record (17 Juni - 30 Desember 2009 = 27 Pekan)
Average +110.88% (25 Pekan) + 3.40% (total +57.86% dari 17 Saham Pilihan Pekan ini: 28 Des - 30 Des 09) = Total 114.28% (Profit: 26 Pekan / Loss: 1 Pekan; Profit dalam 7 Pekan terakhir; sebelumnya 7 pekan lalu 17 pekan berturut-turut Positive Return) = Average 4.235%/Week. Outperform IHSG dalam 27 pekan = +30.46% (IHSG Range 1,750-2,542); Average 1.12%/week.
Track Record ( 28 Des - 30 Des 09) = +3,40%
BUMI +8,6%/PTBA +2,36%/ DOID +13,5%/ASII +1,7%/BRPT +3,8%/SGRO +2,8%
/HEXA +5,0%/ADRO 0% /ITMG +0,6%/BBRI 0%/BMRI +2.3%/INCO +2.0%/ TINS
+5,8%/ ANTM +1,1%/TLKM 0%/ELTY -1,0%/DEWA +9.3%
Track Record (16 Des - 23 Des 09)
BMRI +1.1%/ASII +0.58%/UNVR +0.44%/MNCN -4.6%/BSDE 0%/ANTM -1.1%/INDF +3.78%/GGRM +1.5%/UNTR +0.9%/HEXA -2.4%/PGAS -1.3%/SMGR +4.7%/INTP +3.9%/SMCB -1.3%/LSIP -4.1%/INKP +1.1%/BBTN +3.7%/BUMI 0%/TLKM -2.2%/ADRO -1.7%/ASRI -4.5%/SGRO 0%/BKDP +8.1%/INDY +3.7%/INCO +1.5%/DOID 1.3%/GDST -9.9%.
Track Record (09 Des - 14 Des 09)
BUMI 2.450 +3.9%/BMRI +2.7%/BBRI +1.9%/ASII +2.8%/UNVR +1.35%/TLKM +4.8%/BSDE +10%/JSMR +1.06%/ANTM +2.2%/INDF 0%/GGRM +15.5%/UNTR +10.9%/HEXA +6.8%/INCO 0%/BKSL 0%/PGAS +4.5% /SMGR 3.44%/INTP 4.09%
Track Record (25 Nov - 03 Des 09)
BUMI 2.575 (0%)/PTBA 15.750 (+17.7%)/ADRO 1.710 (+3.5%)/BMRI 4.600 (+1.08%)/ BBRI 7.600 (+5.9%)/ BKSL 101 (-4.9%)/RAJA 215 (-2.3%)/CTRA 550 (-1.8%)/BSDE 820 (+3.65%)/BTEL 155 (+1.29%)/INDF 3.175 (0%)/ BNBR 100 (+1.0%)/ KLBF 1.270 (+0.78%)/BRPT 1.330 (+2.2%)/ELTY 23 0 (+4.3%).
Track Record (19 - 23 November 2009)
BUMI +11.7%/DEWA +3.7%/PGAS +1.9%/DOID -0.6%/ASII +0.9%/MEDC 3.7%/ANTM 4.2%/SMGR 0%/HEXA -0.84%/TRUB +4.8%/BKSL +10.1%/PTBA 6.7%/ENRG +5.2%/BMRI +1.06%/TLKM 1.1%
Track Record Periode 09 Nov - 17 Nov: (24 Posisi)
PTBA 5.4%/DOID 10.0%/BBRI 3.3%/BBCA 0.5%/BMRI 0%/ MEDC 2.8%/PGAS 3.4%/JSMR 2.7%/SMRA 0%/CTRS -5.8%/SGRO 3.0%/ INDF 3.2%/KLBF 2.2%/GGRM 1.7%/SMCB 4.9%/SMGR 0%/ANTM 11.2%/MYOR 14.2%/UNVR 7.8%/ITMG 17.9%/BUMI 12.6%/ENRG 1.7%/ TRUB 9.7%/ASII 3.9%/FREN 3.7%
Track Record Periode 26 Okt - 06 Nov: (29 Posisi):
BBRI +2.7/BMRI 0%/PTBA -0.67%/ADRO 0%/PGAS +0.68%/SDRA 0%/AKRA +6.8%/BSDE +12.6%/SMGR 11.1%/SMRA +13.0%/BUMI +11.36%/ENRG +30%/HEXA 4.4%/MEDC 4.8%/BBCA +2.7%/INCO 0%/PGAS +2.7%/SMCB -1.2%/ASII -1.2%/INDF +2.4%/GGRM +12.2%/TRUB 0%/ANTM 3.2%/INKP -9.5%/BUMI -2.04%/SMCB 2.5%/ENRG 9.2%/ASII -0.6%/INDF 5.08%. Total Profit +122.21% untuk 29 posisi.
Track Record Periode 19 - 23 Okt:
BUMI (3.000) -9.16%, JSMR (1.860) -1.07%, INCO (4.225) +1.18%, PGAS (3.750) 0%, PTBA (14.650) +2.39%, ANTM (2.625) -0.95%, SMGR 6.950 -2.1%, UNTR (16.500) -3.03%, SMCB (1.640) -1.8%, KLBF (1.340) -2.2%/HEXA 3.075 -0.8%, SGRO (2.400) 2.08%,BMRI (4.775) -1.04%, BBRI (7.850) -3.18%, AALI (22.200) -0.45%, TLKM (8.650) +0.57%, UNVR (10.850) -3.38%, ADRO (1.510) +7.94%, BBCA (4.775) 0%, ITMG (24.450) 0% (+Dividen Rp 648).
Track Record Periode 12 - 16 Okt:
BUMI (2900) +4.3%, INDF (3100) +3.2%, JSMR (1800) +3.9%, ASII (33500)-0.6%, ANTM (2600) +1.9%, TLKM (8650) +0.6%, UNVR (11000) 0%, UNTR (15500) +7.7%, SMCB (1550) +7.1%, KLBF (1320) +2.3%, BMRI (4875) +1.03%, BBRI (8050) -0.62%, SMGR (6700) +5.2%, BSDE (640) +12.5%, PGAS (3575) +4.9%, MEDC (3175) 0%, INCO (4150) +2.4%, TINS (2200) +1.1%, SDRA (320) 1.5%.
Track Record Periode 17 Juni - 09 Okt 2009 lainnya bisa dilihat di blog (globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com).
Average +110.88% (25 Pekan) + 3.40% (total +57.86% dari 17 Saham Pilihan Pekan ini: 28 Des - 30 Des 09) = Total 114.28% (Profit: 26 Pekan / Loss: 1 Pekan; Profit dalam 7 Pekan terakhir; sebelumnya 7 pekan lalu 17 pekan berturut-turut Positive Return) = Average 4.235%/Week. Outperform IHSG dalam 27 pekan = +30.46% (IHSG Range 1,750-2,542); Average 1.12%/week.
Track Record ( 28 Des - 30 Des 09) = +3,40%
BUMI +8,6%/PTBA +2,36%/ DOID +13,5%/ASII +1,7%/BRPT +3,8%/SGRO +2,8%
/HEXA +5,0%/ADRO 0% /ITMG +0,6%/BBRI 0%/BMRI +2.3%/INCO +2.0%/ TINS
+5,8%/ ANTM +1,1%/TLKM 0%/ELTY -1,0%/DEWA +9.3%
Track Record (16 Des - 23 Des 09)
BMRI +1.1%/ASII +0.58%/UNVR +0.44%/MNCN -4.6%/BSDE 0%/ANTM -1.1%/INDF +3.78%/GGRM +1.5%/UNTR +0.9%/HEXA -2.4%/PGAS -1.3%/SMGR +4.7%/INTP +3.9%/SMCB -1.3%/LSIP -4.1%/INKP +1.1%/BBTN +3.7%/BUMI 0%/TLKM -2.2%/ADRO -1.7%/ASRI -4.5%/SGRO 0%/BKDP +8.1%/INDY +3.7%/INCO +1.5%/DOID 1.3%/GDST -9.9%.
Track Record (09 Des - 14 Des 09)
BUMI 2.450 +3.9%/BMRI +2.7%/BBRI +1.9%/ASII +2.8%/UNVR +1.35%/TLKM +4.8%/BSDE +10%/JSMR +1.06%/ANTM +2.2%/INDF 0%/GGRM +15.5%/UNTR +10.9%/HEXA +6.8%/INCO 0%/BKSL 0%/PGAS +4.5% /SMGR 3.44%/INTP 4.09%
Track Record (25 Nov - 03 Des 09)
BUMI 2.575 (0%)/PTBA 15.750 (+17.7%)/ADRO 1.710 (+3.5%)/BMRI 4.600 (+1.08%)/ BBRI 7.600 (+5.9%)/ BKSL 101 (-4.9%)/RAJA 215 (-2.3%)/CTRA 550 (-1.8%)/BSDE 820 (+3.65%)/BTEL 155 (+1.29%)/INDF 3.175 (0%)/ BNBR 100 (+1.0%)/ KLBF 1.270 (+0.78%)/BRPT 1.330 (+2.2%)/ELTY 23 0 (+4.3%).
Track Record (19 - 23 November 2009)
BUMI +11.7%/DEWA +3.7%/PGAS +1.9%/DOID -0.6%/ASII +0.9%/MEDC 3.7%/ANTM 4.2%/SMGR 0%/HEXA -0.84%/TRUB +4.8%/BKSL +10.1%/PTBA 6.7%/ENRG +5.2%/BMRI +1.06%/TLKM 1.1%
Track Record Periode 09 Nov - 17 Nov: (24 Posisi)
PTBA 5.4%/DOID 10.0%/BBRI 3.3%/BBCA 0.5%/BMRI 0%/ MEDC 2.8%/PGAS 3.4%/JSMR 2.7%/SMRA 0%/CTRS -5.8%/SGRO 3.0%/ INDF 3.2%/KLBF 2.2%/GGRM 1.7%/SMCB 4.9%/SMGR 0%/ANTM 11.2%/MYOR 14.2%/UNVR 7.8%/ITMG 17.9%/BUMI 12.6%/ENRG 1.7%/ TRUB 9.7%/ASII 3.9%/FREN 3.7%
Track Record Periode 26 Okt - 06 Nov: (29 Posisi):
BBRI +2.7/BMRI 0%/PTBA -0.67%/ADRO 0%/PGAS +0.68%/SDRA 0%/AKRA +6.8%/BSDE +12.6%/SMGR 11.1%/SMRA +13.0%/BUMI +11.36%/ENRG +30%/HEXA 4.4%/MEDC 4.8%/BBCA +2.7%/INCO 0%/PGAS +2.7%/SMCB -1.2%/ASII -1.2%/INDF +2.4%/GGRM +12.2%/TRUB 0%/ANTM 3.2%/INKP -9.5%/BUMI -2.04%/SMCB 2.5%/ENRG 9.2%/ASII -0.6%/INDF 5.08%. Total Profit +122.21% untuk 29 posisi.
Track Record Periode 19 - 23 Okt:
BUMI (3.000) -9.16%, JSMR (1.860) -1.07%, INCO (4.225) +1.18%, PGAS (3.750) 0%, PTBA (14.650) +2.39%, ANTM (2.625) -0.95%, SMGR 6.950 -2.1%, UNTR (16.500) -3.03%, SMCB (1.640) -1.8%, KLBF (1.340) -2.2%/HEXA 3.075 -0.8%, SGRO (2.400) 2.08%,BMRI (4.775) -1.04%, BBRI (7.850) -3.18%, AALI (22.200) -0.45%, TLKM (8.650) +0.57%, UNVR (10.850) -3.38%, ADRO (1.510) +7.94%, BBCA (4.775) 0%, ITMG (24.450) 0% (+Dividen Rp 648).
Track Record Periode 12 - 16 Okt:
BUMI (2900) +4.3%, INDF (3100) +3.2%, JSMR (1800) +3.9%, ASII (33500)-0.6%, ANTM (2600) +1.9%, TLKM (8650) +0.6%, UNVR (11000) 0%, UNTR (15500) +7.7%, SMCB (1550) +7.1%, KLBF (1320) +2.3%, BMRI (4875) +1.03%, BBRI (8050) -0.62%, SMGR (6700) +5.2%, BSDE (640) +12.5%, PGAS (3575) +4.9%, MEDC (3175) 0%, INCO (4150) +2.4%, TINS (2200) +1.1%, SDRA (320) 1.5%.
Track Record Periode 17 Juni - 09 Okt 2009 lainnya bisa dilihat di blog (globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com).
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