Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

Written by Oil N' Gold
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Admittedly, there isn't any following through buying in crude oil after break of 51.69 resistance. Nevertheless, favor is still on the upside with 48.55 support intact. Corrective fall from 54.66 could have completed already and further rise should be seen to retest this resistance. Break will confirm that whole rally from 33.55 has resumed for 60 psychological level, which is close to 23.6% retracement of 147.27 to 33.5 at 60.34. On the downside, however, below 48.55 support will argue that consolidation from 54.66 is extending further before completion. But downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 33.55 to 54.66 at 41.66 and bring strong rebound.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is possibly already in place at 33.55 with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. It's uncertain on how price actions from 33.55 will develop into, be it a strong rally or sideway trading. But after all, with 41.66 fibo support intact, we're favoring the case of strong rally to 55 week EMA at 68.85 first, with prospect of extending to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.55 at 76.99 next. However, failure at the current level, followed by break of 41.66 fibo support will revive that case that rise from 33.55 is just part of a medium term sideway consolidation pattern and will put 33.55 low back into focus.

Forex - Faktor Teknikal Mendukung Sell on Rally Euro & Pound

EUR-USD
(+150 p). Euro masih berada dalam downchannel dan berada di dalam trend bearish, terlihat dari kegagalan euro ditutup diatas resistance line di downchannel di 1.3325, pola candle menunjukkan shooting star (moderate bearish reversal), seharusnya mendukung strategy sell di atas 1.3360 untuk target 1.3185 (MLP 29/04), stop diatas 1.3400.

USD-JPY
USD-JPY menunjukkan pola uptrend channel (revisi) dan trend bulish karena ditutup diatas 35 & 200 day MA, target 61.8% fibo retracement di 99.31, bilamana break dan ditutup diatas level tersebut target 100.26 (long term downtrend line) karena MACD telah kembali di teritorial positif dan pola candle downside tasuki (2 hari lalu) merupakan signal bullish reversal. Sell diatas 99.30 target 97.80, stop diatas 99.75

GBP-USD
(+70p) GBP-USD masih berada dalam trend bullish jangka pendek (uptrend channel), selama bertahan di atas 35-day MA di 1.4664, didukung oleh ADX yang trend up, MACD mash berada di atas teritorial positif, untuk target 1.4931 (resistance line) dan 1.5067 (high 16/04). Sell diatas 1.4930 target 1.4710, stop diatas 1.5000.

USD-CHF
USD-CHF menunjukkan pola ascending triangle dalam trend bearish (MACD), ADX terlihat trending up dan stochastic masih mengarah turun, meski berada di teritorial netral. Penutupan hari ini diatas 1.1496 dapat memutarbalikkan trend menjadi bullish. Buy 1.1300 target 1.1490, stop dibawah 1.1260.

Gold Versus Warren Buffett

By Gold Investments on May 1, 2009
I have just completed an analysis of the performance of the spot price of gold vs. Berkshire Hathaway. I think you will find the results are a little suprising.

Spot Gold vs. Bershire Hathaway

Interestingly, Buffet himself emphasised the non-productive aspects of gold in a speech at Harvard in 1998:
It gets dug out of the ground in Africa or
someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another
hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around
guarding it. It has no utility.

Perhaps its utility is in balancing a porfolio Warren?

Recent S&P 500 Rally Based On Earnings Expectations

By Hans Wagner on May 1, 2009
Much of the recent rally in the stock market can be attributed to higher earnings expectations in the S&P 500 from an economy that is performing less badly than earlier. Does this justify the 29% rise in the S&P 500 over the last six weeks? Moreover, can this move up sustain itself and keep climbing, or at least find a plateau. Part of the answer to this question lies whether earnings expectations will be sufficient to support the current level of the S&P 500, let along a rising market?

S&P 500 Earnings Expectations
According to Standard & Poor’s in 2006, the S&P 500 delivered reported earnings of $83.11. This is before the current recession and collapse of earnings. That year the financial sector generated $43.93 or 45% of the earnings for the S&P 500. This includes the financial arms of industrial giants such as GE and GM. Most of these earnings have disappeared in the massive de-leveraging that is currently underway. In fact, Standard & Poor’s estimates the financial sector generated $37.77 in negative earnings in 2008.

The bursting of the housing and financial bubbles destroyed the basis for these profits in the banking sector. It is unlikely the earning in the financial sector will return to its former level before the market crash. Most of these excess profits were due to the idea that home values would continue to rise at unsustainable rates. The value placed on homes was significantly above the cost to replace the house, creating a flawed valuation. Once the valuation began to fall the debt used by many people to fund this growth and consumption became a millstone, bringing down everyone who participated in the bubble. The housing ATM that fueled higher prices in homes and excessive consumption closed. The economy is extracting its just payment for the over use of leverage.

Going forward the sustainable earnings of the S&P 500 will be less than it was in 2006. To expect earnings to return quickly to their former level is unrealistic. The de-leveraging process is far from over. The problems in the commercial real estate arena are just beginning. In addition, the housing industry will take years to return to its former level. First, there is the large inventory of unsold homes currently on the market, estimated to be close to 11 months at the current sales rate. Then there are the unknown numbers of homes that will come on the market from owners how have delayed selling during the current down market. This number is much larger than many think. Finally, without the excessive borrowing, the purchase of homes will be more restrained going forward. People will not be borrowing against their homes reducing the banks’ opportunity to lend.

It is reasonable to assume that the bulk of the financial sector earnings for the next two years will be either negative or near zero. This removes at least $40 from the 2006 level of S&P earnings expectations. Since the housing industry was a major component of the GDP for the U.S., its delayed recovery will also affect the expected earnings for the S&P 500. Some analysts estimate the housing industry will cost at least $5 in expected earnings of the S&P 500. Subtracting $45 ($40 + $5) from $83 gives us $38 for the expected earnings number for the S&P 500 in two years. Some might say that is the worse case. Fine, then add $12 to that number and we get $50 for the sustainable earnings for the S&P 500 for the next several years as the more likely case. By the way, Standard & Poor’s estimates that, as reported earnings for the S&P 500 in 2010 will be $39.59.

S&P 500 Valuation
The historical average for the S&P 500 PE multiple has been 14 - 16 times the trough earnings. 16 times $38 gives us 608 for the S&P 500. Using the Standard & Poor’s estimate of $39.59 for reported earnings produces an S&P 500 of 633 in 2010. Using the $50 in earnings gives us an S&P 500 value of 800. On April 17, 2009, the S&P 500 closed at 868.60.In a slower growth environment, the typical trough PE ratio is more likely to be 8 to 10. Ten times $38 generates and S&P 500 of 380. Using the Standard & Poor’s earnings estimate of $30.59 gives us an S&P 500 of 396. Using $50 in earnings gives us an S&P 500 value of 500.

The point is the valuations of the S&P 500 are overly optimistic and based on an expectation that earnings for the S&P 500 will return to their former level rather quickly. This is an unrealistic consideration, given the current situation. Moreover, we could be facing the below normal earnings trends and below trend PE ratios.

The Bottom Line
Investors will do well to pay attention to the underlying fundamentals of the market. As earnings are reported, you should compare them to realistic expectations. Should there be any variance from what is expected, you should be prepared to make the necessary adjustments. A slow growth economy will require careful analysis of which are the best sectors to enjoy. It will also call for prudent stock selection, as a rise in the entire market will not carry the day.

New Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator

By Mark Perry on May 1, 2009
A unique new monthly economic indicator introduced today by Dow Jones offers what could be an early signal that the economy may be lifting off its low point but any recovery remains very tentative.The Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) edged higher in April to 27.6, up from 26.3 in March. The ESI aims to predict the health of the U.S. economy by analyzing the coverage of 15 major daily newspapers in the U.S. It uses a numerical scale from 0 to 100 to express the balance of sentiment in articles about the economy.

“The green shoots of recovery may be making an appearance,” Dow Jones Newswires “Money Talks” columnist Alen Mattich said, “but they are as yet very small and very pale.”

The ESI represents one of the most comprehensive and far-reaching examinations of media coverage as an economic indicator. The ESI has been back-tested to 1990, allowing a detailed retrospective look at the indicator’s propensity for anticipating changes in the economy. This historical analysis of the series shows that the ESI clearly highlighted the risk that the U.S. economy was sliding into recession in 2001 and 2008 and suggests the indicator can help predict economic turning points as much as seven months in advance of other indicators.
“The Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator represents a valuable new tool for measuring and anticipating key turning points in the economy,” Clare Hart, President of Dow Jones Enterprise Media Group, said. “And even though it is being released for the first time today, the ESI’s ability to anticipate those turning points is supported by nearly 20 years worth of data.”

Gold Is On The Launching Pad

I love to chronicle my follies with gold. Gold seems so easy. The Federal Reserve runs the printing presses, and everyone in the world knows this is inflationary, and just like that, gold should be off and running. But it isn’t.But in retrospect, my gold exhortations haven’t been so bad. Back in August, 2008, I was less sanguine about gold primarily because I was bullish on the Dollar. When others were bullish on gold back in February, 2009 -as in we are “going to the moon, Alice!” - I was stating that this was not the set up where gold should go higher. This too was a good call. The best I could muster was that gold would remain range bound.And range bound it has been, and we can see that in figure 1, which is a monthly price chart of a continuous gold contract. The indicator in the lower panel measures the degree to which prices have become compressed, and presently, gold prices are compressed to a statistically significant degree.

What we do know is this: compressed prices can lead to explosive moves in either direction.

What we don’t know is this: what direction that it will ultimately be.

So this period of consolidation in gold (and most other assets) meets my criteria for a set up that can act as a launching pad for higher prices. But it can also be a launching pad for lower prices, too.And that is the dilemma. I wish I had an answer, but any technical indicator that I have for you would only be curve fitting in my opinion. But all is not lost as the current set up offers a low risk entry for going long gold.So let’s take another look at the monthly price chart for gold. See figure 2. As long as prices stay above the pivot low at $884.80 on a monthly closing basis, I can remain constructive on gold. Gold is now trading in the low end of its range. When the bull market in gold began in July, 2001, gold has (almost) always closed above its prior pivot low point; this is a hallmark of a bull market -higher lows. The lone exceptions to this rule are: 1) highlighted in the oval when the price of gold closed below the prior pivot for only one month before moving significantly higher and 2) highlighted by the red down arrows as this was the close below the prior pivot low point that effectively “killed” the bull market.

Now let’s look at a weekly chart of a continuous gold contract. See figure 3. The breakout (price bar with red arrows) above the down sloping trend line has pulled back to support levels of the down sloping trend line and the pivot high. This looks like a retest of the breakout (inside the oval), and in my “textbook” this represents a low risk entry point. On this weekly view, a weekly close below $870.70 would like lead to lower prices.

U.S. Stocks ‘Breadth’ Reaches 6-Month High: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- A gauge that rises when more stocks gain than fall climbed to its highest level of 2009 yesterday, a sign to technical analysts that the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may keep rallying after jumping 30 percent since March 9.The so-called cumulative advance-decline line for securities listed on the New York Stock Exchange added 2,031 points, or 8.1 percent, to 27,210, the highest since Oct. 6. The increase represents the difference between the number of NYSE stocks that rose and fell. The index was set at zero in August 1996.

“Breadth has confirmed the S&P’s advance,” said John Roque, managing director in technical analysis at Natixis Bleichroeder Inc. in New York. “As long as breadth remains firm to strong, the market gets the benefit of the doubt.” Technical analysts make predictions based on price and volume charts.

Other signs U.S. stocks may extend their rebound from the 12-year low in March include historically low levels of stocks making 52-week highs or trading above their average price over the past 200 days, Roque said. When those reach historically high levels, market declines often follow, he said.Fourteen NYSE stocks made 52-week highs yesterday, almost double the year-to-date average. In 2007, when the S&P 500 rose to a record, new 52-week highs averaged 130 a day. The number of NYSE stocks trading above their 200-day moving average, which fell to 1 percent in March, climbed to 29 percent yesterday. The highest levels on record since 1994 exceeded 80 percent.

Pares Drop
Following a 38 percent decline by the main benchmark for American equities in 2008, its worst year since 1937, the S&P 500 lost as much as 25 percent this year. The index rose 0.1 percent to 874.47 as of 12:54 p.m., paring its year-to-date drop to 3.2 percent, as companies including Owens-Illinois Inc., Newell Rubbermaid Inc., Expedia Inc., Dow Chemical Co. and International Paper Co. reported profits that beat the average analyst estimate.S&P 500 companies still are headed for a seventh consecutive quarter of declining profits, the longest streak on record. At the 309 companies that have reported first-quarter results, profits fell 33 percent on average, according to Bloomberg calculations.Narrower measures of U.S. stock market breadth have yet to reach new highs for the year. The cumulative advance-decline line for NYSE stocks, which excludes closed-end mutual funds and preferred shares, closed yesterday at the highest level since Jan. 8. For companies in the S&P 500, the gauge is the highest since Feb. 9.

Elliott Wave Bullish on Singapore Stocks: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- Singapore’s Straits Times Index will continue to rally after closing yesterday at its highest in almost four months, according to an “Elliott Wave” analysis by MF Global Ltd.The Straits Times index tumbled to a more than five-year low of 1,456.95 on March 9. It has since rebounded 32 percent on optimism stimulus measures being implemented by governments around the world will help revive global economic growth.In that time, the index declined and found support at 1,754 on April 8, which signaled the beginning of an uptrend, according to Anantha Rajan, technical analyst at MF Global in Singapore. A rebound from an April 8 low through the intra-day high of 1,947 on April 16 and the subsequent drop to the intra- day low of 1,791.45 on April 28 developed the second wave and confirmed the support for the 1,754-point level, he said. The gauge closed at 1,920.28 yesterday, the highest since Jan. 5.

“As long as previous wave lows are not broken, the rally is likely to continue,” Rajan said. As the first two waves were completed, a third wave has started forming this week, he said.The wave principle is a theory developed by accountant Ralph Nelson Elliott during the Great Depression. He concluded that market swings, or waves, follow a predictable, five-stage structure of three steps forward, two steps back.Elliott said that waves share a variety of features: Wave two never falls below the starting level of wave one; wave three is never the shortest; waves one and five tend to be of equal length; and wave sizes are often related by a series of numbers known as the Fibonacci sequence, wherein each number is based on the sum of the two previous ones.

Spekulasi Penyelamatan Chrysler LLC & ISM Lemahkan Dolar AS & Yen

USD Index 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low EUR-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
84.73 (-37) 89.62 (08/03) 79.63 (04/01) 1.3248 1.4055 (02/01) 1.2459 (04/03)

Dolar AS mengalami tekanan terhadap mata uang Eropa di sesi Asia, berkat spekulasi data ISM Manufacturing AS bulan April yang dirilis malam ini akan terkontraksi pada laju yang lebih lambat dan kenaikan indeks saham global kembali menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang dolar, karena investor memburu aset yang lebih beresiko seperti saham dan komoditi. Sebelumnya di sesi pasar New York semalam, dolar menguat secara signifikan berkat aksi profit taking posisi short dolar dari sesi Eropa, setelah Presiden AS Barack Obama mengatakan AS dan Kanada akan memberikan lebih banyak dana kepada Chrysler LLC, yang mengajukan kebangkrutan, sebagai bagian dari aliansi dengan Fiat SpA. Laporan penurunan jobless claims AS pekan lalu, tercatat -13K menjadi 631K, diikuti kenaikan di Chicago PMI bulan April menjadi 40.1 dari 31.4, kendati personal consumption dan personal income mengalami kontraksi masing-masing -0.2% dari 0.4%, dan -0.3% dari -0.2%. Pada hari ini, AS akan merilis ISM Manufacturing bulan April, diperkirakan tercatat 38.4 dari 36.3 di bulan Maret, University of Michigan consumer sentiment Final bulan April diperkirakan merosot ke 61.7 dari 61.9. Dolar diperkirakan akan menguat kembali jika data ISM Manufacturing AS tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan dan menjelang hasil Stress Test 19 Bank pada 4 Mei, yang dapat mendorong kembali risk aversion.
Euro mengalami penguatan terhadap dolar dan yen di sesi perdagangan Asia, setelah kenaikan indeks saham global kembali meningkatkan daya tarik untuk memegang euro dan investor memburu asset yang beresiko seperti saham dan komoditi. Spekulasi kebangkrutan perusahaan otomotif AS Chrysler LLC ikut menguntungkan kinerja euro terhadap dolar, meskipun Presiden AS Obama mengatakan AS dan Kanada akan memberikan dana lebih banyak untuk membantu Chrysler LLC untuk di merger dengan Fiat SpA Italia. Euro kemarin sempat terkoreksi dari tertinggi $ 1.3384 berkat, lebih baik dari perkiraan data Jobless Claims dan Chicago PMI yang menunjukkan kestabilan di ekonomi AS. Liburnya pasar utama di Eropa (Jerman, Prancis, Italia) dan sejumlah negara di Asia (HK, Korsel) dan menjelang Golden Week di Jepang (liburan 04-06 Mei) mendorong tipisnya volume pasar yang dapat meningkatkan volatilitas pergerakan harga mata uang, terutama menjelang data ISM Manufacturing AS diperkirakan naik dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya. Spekulasi penurunan suku bunga ECB pekan depan dan dan data unemployment euro (naik ke 8.7%), masih membebani kinerja euro.

USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
98.76 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.4760 1.5372 (08/01) 1.3502 (23/01)

Yen melemah ke level terendah 2-pekan terhadap euro dan dolar berkat spekulasi laporan ISM Manufacturing AS hari ini akan terkontraksi pada laju yang lebih lambat, mendorong investor memburu aset yang lebih tinggi. Dampak pemulihan ekonomi AS di bulan April yang mulai terlihat, setelah laporan Jobless Claims dan Chicago PMI AS bulan April tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan pasar. Kendati laju pelemahan yen dibatasi oleh laporan kebangkrutan perusahaan otomotif AS Chrysler LLC, setelah gagal beraliansi dengan perusahaan otomotif Italia Fiat SpA. Kejutan kenaikan data Industrial Production Jepang bulan Maret yang lebih tinggi dari perkiraan pasar sebesar 1.9% m/m ikut membatasi potensi pelemahan yen terhadap dolar dan yen. Sementara consensus Bloomberg, menunjukkan bahwa ekonomi Jepang akan terkontraksi 4.2% di tahun ini, lebih tinggi dari prediksi pemerintah sebesar -3.3%, membebani kinerja yen. Liburan Golden Week akan mendorong perkiraan range trading Y 96-99 di pekan depan.

Pound sterling mengalami tekanan di sesi Asia, terhadap dolar dan euro, berkat spekulasi kenaikan indeks saham global dan harga komoditi telah meningkatkan daya tarik untuk mata uang yang memiliki suku bunga yang lebih tinggi seperti euro. Sebelumnya data ekonomi AS semalam yang menunjukkan ekonomi AS mulai stabil di bulan April, meredam permintaan untuk pound sterling yang sempat menguat ke level tertinggi $ 1,4924. Pemulihan data Gfk Consumer confidence Inggris bulan April, telah memberikan support kepada pound sterling kemarin, meski dibatasi oleh data HPI National Inggris bulan Maret yang tercatat -0.4% dari 0.9%. Spekulasi pemulihan data ISM Manufacturing AS hari ini dapat memberikan tekanan kepada pound sterling, terutama karena tipisnya volume perdagangan menjelang liburan di sejumlah Negara Asia dan Eropa hari ini.

Daily Technical Analysis Forex/Cross/DJIA/Gold

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank
EURUSD
Comment: Trapped at the 26-day moving average, between the top of the 'cloud' and the top of the 'flag'. Hopefully we will get a weekly close above 1.3400 to add to upside pressure. Note similar patterns can be seen in a series of major currencies.
Strategy: Buy at 1.3365, adding to 1.3200; stop well below 1.3090. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.3350 for 1.3400 short term and 1.3600 further out
Direction of Trade: →↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.3219 " 1.3275
1.319 1.33
1.312 1.3342
1.3090* 1.3385/1.3400*
1.2964 1.352
GBPUSD
Comment: Holding above the 9 and 26-day moving averages but struggling ahead of the psychological 1.5000 area. We remind that only a weekly close above 1.5000 will give Cable a fighting chance for a decent rally.
Strategy: Buy at 1.4780; stop well below 1.4500. Short term target 1.4945, eventually 1.5050.irection of Trade: →↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.4748 " 1.4822
1.462 1.495
1.458 1.496
1.4500* 1.504
1.444 1.5069*
USDJPY
Comment: Bouncing beyond what we had allowed for but appears to be stalling against the 99.00 area as it did in February and March. Moving averages suggest a short so conflicting messages and we may end up trading between 96.00 and 99.00 for longer than we had originally thought.
Strategy: Attempt shorts at 98.80; stop above 99.85. Short term target 97.15.
Direction of Trade: →Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
98.52 " 99.17
97.9 99.69*
97.15 99.77
96.00* 100
95.63* 100.74
EURJPY
Comment: Mixed Technical picture and likely to continue difficult with random moves within the big band established since October last year. Allow for more random moves roughly between 126.00 and 133.00 for another week or two.
Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny longs at 131.25; stop/reverse below 130.00 for 128.00. Cover longs at 132.55/133.00 and watch for signs of topping.
Direction of Trade: →Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
130.30 " 131.52
129.35 132.03
128.9 132.55
126.65 134
126 134.33
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by ecPulse.com
EURO
The Euro versus the Dollar pair declined as expected in a correction wave yet was limited by the 50% Fibonacci correction. We currently expect the pair to rebound to the upside in an attempt to pressure the key resistance for the upside channel at 1.3385 where a breach of this level will open the way for the pair to 1.3585 as an initial target. Yet in order for this to occur, the 1.3125 level must remain intact on the intraday basis.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.2800 and the key resistance at 1.3585.The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets at 1.2120
Support: 1.3175, 1.3120, 1.3050, 1.3010, 1.2990
Resistance: 1.3295, 1.3320, 1.3385, 1.3445, 1.3525
Recommendation According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.3295 with targets at 1.3385 and 1.3445 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.3175
GBP
The Cable versus Dollar corrected to the downside to the 61.8% correction before rebounding to the upside where we still expect further inclines to reach the key resistance for the ascending channel at 1.4965 in n attempt to breach it and target 1.5070 and 1.5300 respectively. This incline remains as far as 1.4705 remains intact.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.4240 and the key resistance at 1.5400.The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.5270 remains intact with targets at 1.3440
Support: 1.4735, 1.4705, 1.4655, 1.4625, 1.4590
Resistance: 1.4845, 1.4885, 1.4965, 1.5030, 1.5070
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.4735 with targets at 1.4845 and 1.4965 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.4625
JPY
The USD/JPY pair gradually inclined within an ascending channel yet we expect a decline on the intraday basis towards 98.00 to gather bullish momentum before rebounding back to the upside reaching targets at 99.20 and 100.70 respectively before heading towards the short term target at 103.00. This incline remains as far as 95.85 is intact.The trading range for today is among the key support at 95.85 and the key resistance at 100.70The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60
Support: 98.30, 98.00, 97.80, 97.40, 96.95
Resistance: 99.20, 99.70, 100.70, 101.00, 101.45
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 98.00 with targets at 99.20 and stop loss with four hour closing below 96.95
CHF
After undergoing an upside correction to the 50% level yesterday, the Dollar versus Swissy is attempting to trade below the key support at 1.1370 as we mentioned yesterday to maintain direction to the downside unless the 1.1460 level is breach. We expect further decline targeting 1.1270 and 1.1165 on the intraday basis.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0975 and the key resistance at 1.1800.The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact with targets at 1.2245
Support: 1.1370, 1.1305, 1.1270, 1.1205, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1410, 1.1460, 1.1520, 1.1585, 1.1645
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.1370 with targets at 1.1270 and stop loss with four hour closing above 1.1460
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 8088.80, 8046.37, 8010.50 and 7987.50(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 7959.37, where correction also can be. Then follows 7922.80. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 7900.20. Continuation will bring 7871.40.Today's resistance: - 8280.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8303.90, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8336.20, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8370.00. Continuation would bring 8398.62.
FXtechtrade
Comex Gold (GC)
As discussed before, the three wave structure of Gold's rise from 865 to 919.7 and the failure to take out falling trend line resistance argue that correction from 1007.7 is still in progress. Intraday bias remains mildly on the downside for the moment for 865 support and below. Nevertheless, above 919.70 will revive the case that correction from 1007.7 has completed and will target 967.8 resistance for confirmation.In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 1007.7 to 865, is consistent with the bullish case. That is, rise from 681 is resumption of long term up trend after triangle consolidation from 1033.9 completed at 681. Retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone should now be seen. Decisive break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. On the downside, while another fall cannot be ruled out for the moment, we'll hold on to the bullish case as long as 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.8 ) remains intact.However, note that sustained break of 801.50 cluster support will dampen the above preferred view. This will suggest that rise from 681 is not resuming the long term up trend but is merely part of the consolidation from 1033.9. In other words, fall from 1007.7 is part of the consolidation too and could then target 681 low before completion.

IHSG : Buy on Rumor Sell on Inflation News

Market Review
IHSG mengalami kenaikan tajam kemarin, berkat sentimen positif dari penguatan saham Wall Street dan regional Asia setelah FOMC AS memberikan signal bahwa kontraksi ekonomi AS mulai melambat dan rekomendasi pembelian saham perbankan AS. IHSG juga menguat berkat penguatan saham perbankan mengantisipasi rendahnya data inflasi dirilis hari ini dan solidnya sejumlah laporan keuangan (BMRI, BBRI, BBNI, BBCA, CIMB-Niaga), memberikan momentum kenaikan, diikuti kenaikan di saham grup Bakrie setelah Bakrie Brothers dilaporkan melunasi repo Rp 203 miliar kepada PNM. Saham di sektor industri seperti ASII melonjak tajam setelah CIMB iTrader merekomendasi ASII menjadi outperform. IHSG melejit +78.581 (+4.78%) di 1,722.766, dengan nilai transaksi Rp 5,87 triliun. Investor asing mencatat net buy sebesar Rp 673 miliar, dibandingkan net buy Rp 134.71 miliar (29/04).

Indeks saham MSCI Asia-Pacific melonjak 3.3%, berkat sentimen positif dari lebih baik dari perkiraan data produksi industri Jepang (+1.9%) dan kenaikan belanja konsumen dalam GDP Q1 AS, memicu spekulasi ekonomi global mulai pulih.

IHSG Outlook
IHSG masih berpeluang menguat hari ini kendati terbatas, karena penguatan saham perbankan dari solidnya lapkeu Q1 2009 (BBRI, BMRI, BBCA, BBNI, BNLI, BNGA) dan perkiraan inflasi bulan April, saham di sektor industri (ASII, GGRM) dan saham grup Bakrie (BUMI, ELTY, UNSP, BNBR, ENRG, BNBR) dan penguatan rupiah terhadap USD hingga Rp 10,570 kemarin, dapat mendorong inflow ke pasar saham, menopang kinerja IHSG. Laju kenaikan dapat dibatasi oleh perkiraan rilisan lapkeu emiten pertambangan Q1 2009 (INCO, ANTM, TINS) menunjukkan penurunan laba bersih, dimulainya aktifitas short-selling dan marjin (21 saham) hari ini dan potensi profit-taking di akhir pekan, setelah saham unggulan menguat tajam dalam 3 hari terakhir (buy on rumor, sell on the news data inflasi) dan menjelang Strest Test AS pada 4 Mei dan BI rate pekan depan.

Stock Picks:
* BBCA
* ANTM

Global Outlook
Indeks saham regional Asia masih berada dalam trend bullish, diperkuat sentimen yang positif dari laporan ekonomi AS (jobless claims AS turun 13,000: 631,000) dan Jepang kemarin dan laporan kebangkrutan Chrysler AS, serta solidnya earnings emiten AS (68% dari 268 emiten S&P 500 lebih baik dari perkiraan), mampu menopang kinerja indeks regional Asia dan Wall Street, meski ada potensi profit-taking menjelang Stress Test AS pada 4 Mei.

Technical Analysis:
Seperti diperkirakan sebelumnya IHSG, masih mampu menguat lebih lanjut, berkat signal dari pola uptrend diagonal triangle, pola candle three white soldier kemarin dan indikator MACD dan stochastic masih berada di teritorial bullish, kendati ada potensi divergence di volume dan ADX yang terlihat naik tipis, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan IHSG hari ini terbatas. Meski secara keseluruhan trend jangka pendek kembali extend bullish, setelah IHSG ditutup diatas uptrend channel (1,689) dan 61.8 Fibonaci Expansion di 1,705 untuk target 1,756 (38.2 fibo retracement: target 1 bulan), bahkan 1,797 (resistance line)/1.908 untuk target 3 bulan, selama ditutup mingguan diatas support line 1,592. Elliot wave mendukung sub wave v dalam wave impulse 3 selama masih berada di atas 61.8 FE dalam koreksi primary wave C (koreksi).
Resistance: 1782.19/1767.34/1752.48/1725.42. PP 1698.36.
Support : 1683.51/1668.65/1641.59/1614.53/1572.62
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 1,700-1,755)

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Aksi Profit-Taking Dapat Menahan Laju Uptrend

SSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
8800 8630 8830 8590 8900 8750 8940 8550 8600 8700 8850 8900 9000
Commentary

Secara teknikal, SSIM9 masih menunjukkan potensi kenaikan karena indeks berada dalam pola rising wedge dalam trend bullish, didukung oleh pola long blue candle dan volume yang meningkat, ditutup diatas resistance line di 8,917 dan 100% fibo expansion di 8,937, yang seharusnya menunjukkan continuation bullish besok. Indikator ADX+ yang crossing dengan ADX- mendukung strong momentum untuk naik, diikuti MACD masih berada di teritorial positif, seharusnya mendorong indeks untuk menguat ke target high (10/04) di 9,100, bahkan 9,448 (rising wedge line) dalam 1-bulan mendatang. Skenario bullish dapat gagal jika indeks ditutup dibawah support line 8,905, dapat membatasi potensi kenaikan lebih lanjut. Perkiraan range hari ini : 8,850-9,100

Rekomendasi : Buy break 9,040 target 9,100 (buy break 9,120), stop 100 (+120p)

KSM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
175.15 173.1 176.5 172.1 176.5 174.2 177.5 170.4 172.1 174.4 178.5 180.2 182.5
Commentary

Secara teknikal, KSM9 masih berada dalam trend bullish, karena indeks berada dalam ascending triangle, seharusnya masih melanjutkan potensi kenaikan pada hari ini, berkat rising windowdan indeks telah ditutup diatas resistance line di 171,40 dan 61.8% & 100.0 fibo expansion di 172.97 & 176.64, untuk target 180.08 (resistance line rising wedge) dan 182.34 (161.8 fibo expansion). Indeks juga masih berada di atas 10 & 20 day MA di 171.54 & 173.20 yang akan menjadi support untuk beberapa hari mendatang. Indikator ADX+ menunjukkan trending up, stochastic terkoreksi meski berada dalam teritorial bullish dan MACD masih uptrend. Perkiraan range hari ini: 175-181

Rekomendasi : Buy break 180.50 target 182.50 (reverse sell target 180.00), stop 100 (+190)

HSIK9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
14994 14922 15313 14822 15391 15000 15491 14687 14849 15118 15549 15711 15980
Commentary

Secara teknikal, HSIK9 masih berada dalam trend bullish, terutama saat ini berada dalam pola ascending triangle, mendapatkan rejection di downtrend line di 15,445, bilamana tembus dan ditutup di level tersebut dapat mengarahkan indeks ke target 23.6% fibo expansion di 15,605 dan 15,964, bahkan 16,522 di bulan Mei. Rising window, dikombinasi dengan ADX+ dan ADX- yang crossing, MACD masih uptrend dan stochastic masih berada di teritorial bullish, seharusnya masih mendukung kenaikan lebih lanjut. Sementara kegagalan indeks menembus downtrend line di 15,386 besok dapat menahan laju kenaikan di pekan depan, dan mendukung koreksi penurunan dan konsolidasi. Support berada di 14,992 (10-day MA).

Rekomendasi : Buy break 15485 target 15,950 (or closing), atau sell break low 15,000 target 14,873 stop 100 poin. (-100+300 p)

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Daily Technical Analysis Forex/DJIA/Gold

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank
EURUSD
Comment: Re-test the 26-day moving average and the top of the 'flag'. Momentum has just turned bullish and a weekly close above 1.3400 should add to this upside pressure. Note similar patterns can be seen in a series of major currencies.
Strategy: Buy at 1.3300, adding to 1.3200; stop well below 1.3090. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.3340 for 1.3400 short term and 1.3600 further out.
Direction of Trade: →↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.3246 " 1.3342*
1.319 1.34
1.312 1.3425
1.3090* 1.352
1.2964 1.36
GBPUSD
Comment: Slow work but managing to close above the 9 and 26-day moving averages. We remind that only a weekly close above 1.5000 will give Cable a fighting chance for a decent rally.
Strategy: Buy at 1.4825; stop well below 1.4500. Short term target 1.4940, eventually 1.5050.Direction of Trade: →↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.4748 " 1.4855
1.462 1.4945
1.458 1.496
1.4500* 1.504
1.444 1.5069*
USDJPY
Comment: Bouncing smartly from the top of the Ichimoku 'cloud' and will probably hold above here again today. Moving averages suggest a short so conflicting messages and we may end up trading between 96.00 and 99.00 for longer than we had originally thought.
Strategy: Attempt shorts at 97.25; stop above 98.15. Short term target 96.00
Direction of Trade: →Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
97.15 " 97.87
96.9 98
96.35 98.50*
96.00* 99
95.63* 99.69*
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by ecPulse.com
EURO
The Euro versus Dollar pair was able to reach the key resistance for the downside channel at 1.3320 before reversing to the downside as expected. The intraday trend is now to the downside affected by the above mentioned resistance level where we expect the pair is to correct to the downside towards 1.3120 - 1.3110 for today. This decline remains as far as 1.3320 remains intact
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.2800 and the key resistance at 1.3580.The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets at 1.2120.
Support: 1.3205, 1.3120, 1.3050, 1.2990, 1.2955
Resistance: 1.3320, 1.3340, 1.3395, 1.3450, 1.3525
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.3255 with targets at 1.3120 and stop loss with four hour closing above 1.3340
GBP
After mixed trading in the markets yesterday, the Cable versus the Dollar reached the resistance at 1.4845 after breaching the 1.4705 level before correcting to the downside to reach our targets at 1.4755 - 1.4705 to gather bullish momentum in an attempt to breach the resistance level at 1.4930. This incline remains as far as 1.4690 remains intact where a breach of this level will take the pair to 1.4590.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.4240 and the key resistance at 1.5400.The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.5270 remains intact with targets at 1.3400
Support: 1.4755, 1.4705, 1.4655, 1.4590, 1.4530
Resistance: 1.4845, 1.4930, 1.4960, 1.5030, 1.5070
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.4755 with targets at 1.4845 and 1.4930 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.4655
JPY
The USD/JPY pair reached the key resistance for the descending channel yesterday at 97.60 where it gave a false breakout of the level before declining once again from 97.45 level to currently target the support level at 95.40. The short term targets are at 94.00 as far as 97.45 remains intact.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 94.00 and the key resistance at 99.60. The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60
Support: 96.95, 96.35, 95.90, 95.45, 95.20
Resistance: 97.45, 97.70, 98.15, 98.75, 99.40
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 97.45 with targets at 95.45 and stop loss with four hour closing above 98.15
CHF
After breaching the key support at 1.1355, the Dollar versus Swissy declined to reach 1.1300 several times as it was pressured to the upside to retest the above mentioned level yet a close below it helps us keep our outlook to the downside on the intraday and short terms. Targets for today are at 1.1165 yet we may witness an upside correction towards 1.1410 - 1.1440 to gather bearish momentum. However, a close above 1.1355 may invalidate our expectations for a decline especially if the pair was able to breach the 1.1460 level to the upside.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0975 and the key resistance at 1.1800. The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact with targets at 1.2245
Support: 1.1355, 1.1305, 1.1240, 1.1205, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1410, 1.1460, 1.1520, 1.1585, 1.1645
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.1355 with targets at 1.1240 and 1.1165 and stop loss with four hour closing above 1.1460
CAD
The Dollar versus Loonie pair was able to complete yesterday's targets at 1.1955 before rebounding to the upside which may take the pair to levels between 1.2050 - 1.2070 in an attempt to retest the latter level and gather enough bearish momentum to support the short term trend to the downside targeting 1.1640. This decline remains as far as 1.2070 remains intact.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.1640 and the key resistance at 1.2505.The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.1780 remains intact with targets at 1.3400
Support: 1.1900, 1.1875, 1.1810, 1.1785, 1.1755
Resistance: 1.2050, 1.2070, 1.2100, 1.2150, 1.2225
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.2050 with targets at 1.1955 and 1.1875 and stop loss with a four hour closing above 1.2150
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 8088.80, 8046.37, 8010.50 and 7987.50(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 7959.37, where correction also can be. Then follows 7922.80. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 7900.20. Continuation will bring 7871.40.
Today's resistance: - 8280.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8303.90, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8336.20, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8370.00. Continuation would bring 8398.62
FXtechtrade

Faktor Fundamental & Teknikal Dukung Pelemahan Dolar

USD Index 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low EUR-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
84.28 (-71) 89.62 (08/03) 79.63 (04/01) 1.3272 1.4055 (02/01) 1.2459 (04/03)

Dolar AS kembali terpukul terhadap hampir seluruh mata uang utama dunia kemarin, berkat spekulasi kenaikan indeks saham global, karena investor memburu aset yang beresiko seperti saham dan aset yang memiliki tingkat suku bunga lebih tinggi, menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang dolar AS. Dolar kemarin melemah hampir 1% terhadap major, setelah the Fed memberikan pernyataan yang memberikan harapan mengenai ekonomi AS. Dalam pernyataannya, Fed mengatakan ekonomi masih akan terkontraksi, meski lajunya terlihat melambat. Anggota dewan tidak memperkirakan pemulihan ekonomi dalam waktu dekat, mereka memutuskan mempertahankan suku bunga fed fund range 0-0.25% untuk pertemuan ke-3, tetapi membatasi keinginan untuk meningkatkan pembelian Treasury dan mortgage securities. Ekonomi AS masih jauh dari prospek pemulihan, GDP Q1 AS tercatat 6.1% y/y, setelah anjlok 6.3% di Q4, menunjukkan ekonomi AS masih terpuruk selama 3 kuartal berturut-turut, untuk pertama kali sejak 1974-1975. Meski ada berita positif dari data yang menunjukkan consumer spending meningkat 2.2%, inventory mengalami rekor penurunan di Q1. Meski potensi pelemahan dolar terbatas setelah RBNZ memangkas 50 bsp menjadi 2.50% hari ini dan laporan dari Wall Street Journal bahwa pembicaraan mengenai kebangkrutan Chrysler Corp AStelah gagal.

Euro menguat ke level tertinggi $ 1.3337 terhadap dolar AS di sesi Asia hari ini, berkat kenaikan indeks saham regional global telah meningkatkan daya tarik untuk euro karena invesor memburu aset beresiko dan memilik tingkat suku bunga lebih tinggi. Sebelumnya data consumer confidence euro meningkat untuk pertama kali sejak Mei 2008. Indeks sentimen ekonomi Komisi Eropa meningkat menjadi 67.2 di bulan April dari 64.7 di bulan Maret. Lebih rendah dari perkiraan data GDP Q1 AS tercatat -6.1%, dibandingkan perkiraan -5.0%, ikut memberikan momentum penguatan kepada euro dolar semalam. Euro menguat ke level tertinggi $ 1.3341 terhadap dolar, ditutup menguat 0.9% di $ 1.3248. Meskipun ekonomi Eropa sepertinya masih akan melemah. Jerman memangkas prediksi pertumbuhan mejadi minus 6% dari -2.25% untuk tahun 2009. Hari ini, Wall Street Journal, melaporkan pembicaraan kebangkrutan Chrysler Corp AS telah gagal, dapat kembali memicu risk aversion di sesi Asia dan Eropa hari ini. Sementara rilisan data unemployment Jerman pada hari ini (perkiraan naik ke 8.3%), HICP Flash Euro diperkirakan 0.6% m/m, unemployment euro bulan Maret diperkirakan meningkat ke 8.7% dari 8.5%, dapat membatasi potensi penguatan euro pada hari ini.

USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
97.33 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.4802 1.5372 (08/01) 1.3502 (23/01)

Yen mengalami pelemahan terhadap dolar di sesi Asia hari ini, berkat kenaikan indeks saham global, meredam daya tarik untuk memegang yen sebagai mata uang safe haven, dan mendorong investor memburu aset yang beresiko seperti saham , komoditi dan mata uang yang memiliki suku bunga lebih tinggi. Di sesi Tokyo hari ini, Jepang merilis data Industrial Production yang meningkat untuk pertama kali dalam 6 bulan dan meningkat dua kali lipat ketimbang perkiraan pasar, memberikan signal ekonomi mungkin mulai berekspansi secepatnya di kuartal ini. Produksi industri meningkat 1.6% di bulan Maret dari Februari tercatat anjlok 9.4 persen. Sebelumnya GDP Q1 AS memberikan harapan kontraksi ekonomi AS mungkin telah melewati masa terburuk, mendorong aksi penjualan yen terhadap dolar. Meski laporan batalnya pembicaraan kebangkrutan Chrysler Motor Corp dan BOJ mempertahankan suku bunga 0.1%, dapat mendorong pembelian yen sebagai safe haven, menjelang data ekonomi euro dan AS hari ini.

Pound sterling masih mendapatkan keuntungan terhadap dolar dan yen, berkat kenaikan indeks saham dan harga komoditi global, meningkatkan daya tarik untuk memegang pound sterling, karena investor masih memburu aset yang beresiko dan memiliki suku bunga yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan dolar dan yen. Pound sterling menguat ke level tertinggi $ 1.4854 di sesi Asia, setelah the Fed mempertahankan suku bunga dalam range 0-0.25% dan data GDP Q1 AS tercatat lebih buruk dari perkiraan pasar, sebesar -6.1%. Sementara data Gfk Survey Index bulan April yang dirilis hari ini, menunjukkan kontraksi lebih lanjut menjadi -29 dari -27 di bulan Maret. Meski potensi penguatan pound dapat dibatasi oleh laporan WSJ bahwa pembicaraan mengenai kebangkrutan Chrysler Corp telah gagal, diikuti sejumlah data ekonomi AS hari ini yang dapat, mendorong aksi profit-taking posisi long pound dolar.

USD-CHF 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
1.1344 1.1965 (12/03) 1.0617 (02/01) 0.7254 0.7325 (13/04) 0.6248 (02/02)

Swiss franc mengalami penguatan terhadap dolar AS, mencapai level tertinggi $ 1.1305 di sesi Asia, melanjutkan penguatan sejak 2 hari sebelumnya, setelah kenaikan indeks saham dan komoditi global, menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang dolar AS. Sebelumnya, GDP Q1 AS tercatat lebih rendah dari perkiraan pasar sebesar -6.1% dari konsensus Reuters sebesar -5.0%. The Fed semalam mempertahankan suku bunga dalam range 0-0.25%, masih berniat membeli Treasury dan mortgage securities. Meski data KOF index Swiss bulan April kembali terkontraksi lebih dalam menjadi -1.89 dari -1.86 di Maret, seharusnya masih membatasi potensi penguatan Swiss franc terhadap dolar AS hari ini. Kondisi tersebut dapat diperkuat setelah laporan Wall Street Journal bahwa pembicaraan mengenai kebangkrutan Chrysler Corp AS telah gagal hari ini dan spekulasi data ekonomi AS hari ini dapat meredam pembelian CHF terhadap dolar.

Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) masih melanjutkan penguatan terhadap dolar untuk hari ketiga, setelah investor memburu aset yang beresiko dan aset yang memiliki suku bunga yang lebih tinggi, karena kenaikan indeks saham dan harga komoditi global. Laporan the Fed mempertahankan suku bunga 0-0.25% dan masih berniat membeli Treasury dan mortgage securities, GDP Q1 AS tercatat lebih rendah dari perkiraan pasar. Meski kiwi hari ini berpeluang terkoreksi setelah bank sentral Selandia Baru (RBNZ) memangkas suku bunga 50 bsp menjadi 2.50% dan pernyataan Gubernur RBNZ yang menyatakan suku bunga akan tetap rendah hingga akhir 2010. Sementara ukuran kondisi bisnis National Australia bank untuk tahun mendatang, melemah menjadi -24 di kuartal Maret dibandingkan kuartal empat tahun lalu sebesar -21. Indeks Business Confidence Australia meningkat menjadi -24 dari -31. Potensi penguatan aussie dan kiwi diperkirakan terbatas berkat perkiraan data ekonomi AS hari ini akan menunjukkan kestabilan di ekonomi AS.

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Dollar to Decline as 10-Year Yields Rise: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- The dollar will probably decline should 10-year Treasury note yields rise “decisively” above 3.06 percent, Citigroup Inc. said in a report citing trading patterns.The greenback strengthened in 1993 against the currencies that went on to form the euro as U.S. 10-year notes rallied, technical analysts Tom Fitzpatrick in New York and Shyam Devani in London wrote today in a note to clients. The U.S. currency erased most of its gains as yields climbed in 1994, they said.

“If this were the correct picture then one would expect significant renewed dollar weakness,” the analysts wrote. Buying the dollar and Treasuries was “the trade of choice” toward the end of 2008 and “is now unraveling,” they said.

The dollar fell for a second day against the 16-nation euro, depreciating 1.3 percent to $1.3323 at 12:06 p.m. in New York. The yield on the 2.75 percent 10-year note due in February 2019 fell two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 3 percent, according to BGCantor Market Data. Ten-year note yields last touched 3.06 percent on Nov. 26.

Ten-year note yields have held in a range between 2.46 percent and 3.02 percent since March 19, the day after the Federal Reserve said it would buy up to $300 billion in U.S. government debt over six months, as concerns about record Treasury supply were offset by the central bank’s buybacks. The yield has averaged 4.23 percent for the past five years.In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

Bank of America Revises Currency Forecasts on Economy

(Bloomberg) -- Bank of America Securities-Merrill Lynch revised its forecasts for the dollar, yen, euro and pound on the “rising probability” the global recession has passed its lowest point.The euro will recover against the dollar and the yen faster than previously forecast and the British pound will strengthen versus the euro and the dollar more than formerly predicted, the bank said in a research report dated yesterday. The euro will decline to $1.20 in September and $1.22 by year-end, compared with previous targets of $1.24 and $1.18, the report said.

“We have made some modest adjustments to our foreign- exchange forecasts, reflecting the rising probability that the worst is behind the global economy,” analysts including David Powell in London wrote in the report. “The main forecast changes at this stage are a shallower trough for both risky currencies and euro-dollar this summer, and a steeper U.S. dollar decline in 2010.”“The near-term dollar outlook is for appreciation as the U.S. current-account deficit shrinks rapidly, European banking sector de-leveraging creates dollar demand and underlying asset markets remain volatile,” the report said. “Longer term, the dollar is vulnerable to a sustained and widespread return to risk-seeking behavior.”

The euro rose 1 percent to $1.3273 as of 4:20 p.m. in London. It has dropped 5 percent against the dollar this year, and gained 1.6 percent versus the Japanese yen.

Rising Pound
The pound will strengthen to 89 pence per euro in June, 87 pence in September and 85 pence by the end of the year, Bank of America said in the report. Its previous forecasts were for 91 pence, 89 pence and 87 pence respectively.The British currency will drop to $1.44 in June, and to $1.38 in September, before strengthening to $1.44 by the year end, it said.The pound rose 1.1 percent to $1.4790 and was little changed at 89.83 pence per euro.“With the Bank of England having already implemented a policy of full blown quantitative easing, all the ‘bad news’ is now priced in for the pound,” Bank of America said. “On the other hand, the euro faces the risk of further easing measures from the European Central Bank.”

IHSG Mendapatkan Pola Bullish Reversal

Market Review
IHSG kembali melanjutkan penguatan pada hari Rabu, berkat gelombang rilisan laporan keuangan kuartal pertama 2009, munculnya kembali isu rekonsiliasi partai Demokrat-Golkar, dan kenaikan indeks saham regional Asia setelah kekhawatiran meluasnya wabah flu babi mereda dan sentimen positif dari rilisan data ekonomi AS mengindikasikan ekonomi AS mulai stabil. Penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar (ditutup di Rp 10,800) dan perkiraan inflasi yang lebih rendah, dapat mendorong kepada perkiraan pemotongan suku bunga BI di pekan depan, berperan menguatkan saham di sektor finansial, diperkuat oleh rilisan lapkeu sejumlah emiten perbankan (BMRI, BBCA, BBNI). Kenaikan saham infrastruktur (telekomunikasi), pertambangan dan perkebunan ikut mendongkrak IHSG. IHSG ditutup naik 48.27 (+3.02%) di 1,644.185, level penutupan tertinggi sejak 7 Oktober 2008. Investor asing mencatat net buy sebesar Rp 134.71 miliar, dibandingkan net buy Rp 88.27 miliar (28/04).

Indeks saham MSCI Asia-Pacific mengalami penguatan untuk pertama kali dalam 3 hari terakhir, dipicu oleh kenaikan saham komoditi dan consumer, berkat optimisme earning dapat bertahan dari resesi global dan laporan surplus perdagangan Korea Selatan melonjak. Indeks saham Nikkei libur kemarin.

IHSG Outlook
IHSG diperkirakan masih dapat melanjutkan kenaikan hari ini, berkat solidnya sejumlah lapkeu perbankan (BMRI, BBCA, BBNI), consumer (ASII, UNTR), finansial (BDMN menambah saham di ADMF) dan isu koalisi masih menguntungkan saham grup Bakrie, diikuti perkiraan rilisan lapkeu emiten lainnya (lebih dari 20 emiten belum merilis lapkeu Q1) dan meredanya kekhawatiran terhadap isu flu babi dapat meningkatkan risk appetite dari investor lokal dan asing memburu saham, terutama menjelang data inflasi dan BI rate di pekan depan. Potensi penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar di akhir pekan ini, dapat mendorong inflow ke pasar saham, meski data GDP Q1 AS (-6.1% q/q), FOMC, Stress Test 4 Mei, dapat menahan laju kenaikan IHSG.

Stock Picks:

* LSIP
* MIRA

Global Outlook
Indeks saham regional Asia diperkirakan dapat melanjutkan penguatan hari ini, setelah analis Fox-Pitt untuk pertama kali sejak 2004, meng-upgrade saham bank AS dan kenaikan harga komoditas minyak, dapat mengangkat saham finansial dan komoditi hari Kamis, meski potensi kenaikan indeks regional Asia terbatas meski trend masih bullish, berkat lebih rendah dari perkiraan GDP Q1 AS tercatat -6.1%, perkiraan -5.0%, sementara hasil FOMC Meeting AS telah diantisipasi pasar sebelumnya.

Technical Analysis:
IHSG terlihat masih mendapatkan momentum kenaikan setelah menunjukkan signal bullish reversal hari Selasa, pola candle daily menunjukkan bullish engulfing (revisi: downside tasuki 29/04), karena penurunan sejak awal pekan lalu terlihat lemah (ADX terkoreksi) dan IHSG masih berada di dalam trend bullish seperti diperlihatkan indikator MACD. IHSG ditutup diatas 5 & 10 day MA (1,617 & 1,599) dan bahkan 200-day MA (1,606), seharusnya masih mendukung potensi kenaikan terutama jika ditutup di level tersebut selama 2 hari berturut-turut untuk melanjutkan trend kenaikan ke target uptrend channel resistance line di 1,689. Bilamana break dan ditutup di level tersebut target 1,752 (38.2% fibo retracement) dalam 1-3 pekan mendatang. Elliot Wave melihat IHSG berada dalam impulse 3), selama bertahan di atas 50.0 fibo retracement di 1,565 dalam koreksi wave IV.
Resistance: 1708.58/1682.26/1672.74/1663.22. PP 1629.60.
Support : 1620.08/1610.56/1593.75/1576.94
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 1,620-1,670)

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Indeks Regional Asia Berpotensi Melanjutkan Kenaikan

SSIJun
Commentary
Secara teknikal, SSIM9 masih berada dalam kondisi uptrend terlihat dari indikator MACD yang masih berada di teritorial bullish, penutupan diatas 35-day MA di 8,420, diikuti pola rising wedge yang seharusnya mempertahankan pola kenaikan selama ditutup diatas support line di 8,510 meski dibayangi oleh pola candle hanging man yang menunjukkan indikasi bearish reversal, didukung oleh kenaikan di indikator ADX dalam kondisi stochastic yang bearish. Tembusnya small downchannel support line di 8,670 dan resistance 8,815 merupakan false break, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan konsolidasi pada hari Selasa. Jika SSIM9 ditutup dibawah support line 8,510, trend jangka pendek akan berubah menjadi netral, target 8,060/7,600. Penutupan harian diatas 8,900 seharusnya mengarahkan indeks ke target rising wedge upper line di 9,405 pekan ini. Perkiraan range hari Kamis: 8300-8750.

Rekomendasi : Buy break 8,840/8930 target 9,130, stop 100

KSJUN
Commentary
Secara teknikal, KSM9 masih berad dalam trend bullish, karena indeks masih berada dalam ascending triangle, dimana penurunan indeks baru-baru ini terlihat lemah karena tidak didukung oleh kenaikan volume dan ADX. Kondisi tersebut mendukung potensi rebound dalam hari Kamis dan Jumat, karena indikator MACD masih berada dalam teritorial bullish. Selama indeks ditutup diatas 169.42 (trendline support) indeks dapat mencapai ke target 176.60 (100% fibo expansion)/182.35 (161.8% fibo expansion). Pola candle daily menunjukkan bullish harami yang merupakan moderate bullish reversal dalam rising wedge dan penutupan diatas 35-day MA di 164.50 seharusnya masih memperkuat uptrend dalam waktu dekat ini, meski trend jangka menengah masih bearish karena MACD dan stochastic masih berada di teritorial bearish.

Rekomendasi : Buy break 174.60 target 176.50, stop 100 (+160)

HSIMay
Commentary
Secara teknikal, HSIJ9 kembali mendapatkan signal bullish setelah kemarin mendapatkan signal candle daily bullish harami, ADX mulai flat setelah sebelumnya terkoreksi turun di saat harga mengalami kejatuhan. Meski indeks masih berada di dalam pola pennant, tetapi penutupan harga masih diatas 35-day MA di 14,075, masih mendukung potensi kenaikan untuk target 10-day MA di 15,204. Trend jangka pendek masih bullish berkat indikator MACD masih berada di teritorial bullish dan stochastic tidak lagi berada di dalam kondisi overbought. Penutupan indeks diatas downtrendline daily di 14,919 dapat melanjutkan uptrend ke target 15,394/15622 dalam 1-2 pekan mendatang.

Rekomendasi : Buy break 15080 & 15,385 target 15,620, stop 100 (+313 poin).

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Daily Technical Analysis & Elliot Wave Forex/Cross/Gold/Oil/CFD

By Ahmad Mudjo

DOwnload article

Daily Forex/CrossTechnical Commentary

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by ecPulse.com
EURO
The Euro versus the Dollar was able to breach the key resistance at 1.3110 to incline in a new bullish wave to alter the intraday trend to the upside. Our next target is at the key resistance for the downside channel at 1.3320 where all we need is the confirmation of the breach of 1.3220. Reaching 1.3320 requires the 1.3050 level to remain intact.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.2800 and the key resistance at 1.3400.The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets at 1.2120
Support: 1.3140, 1.3110, 1.3050, 1.2990, 1.2955
Resistance: 1.3220, 1.3320, 1.3360, 1.3405, 1.3450
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.3220 with targets at 1.3320 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.3140
GBP
The Cable versus the Dollar was able to rebound to the upside after building a solid base at 1.4515 to breach the 1.4690 resistance and attempt to break the next resistance at 1.4705. Breaching the 1.4690 will open the way for the pair to reach 1.4845 after confirming the breakout of the 1.4705 level with a four hour closing above it and as far as 1.4590 remains intact.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.4240 and the key resistance at 1.5280. The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.5270 remains intact with targets at 1.3440
Support: 1.4690, 1.4645, 1.4590, 1.4530, 1.4480
Resistance: 1.4705, 1.4745, 1.4790, 1.4845, 1.4890
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.4705 with taregts at 1.4845 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.4590
JPY
The USD/JPY pair was steadily trading within a downside channel and inclined after touching the key support for the channel. Our outlook remains to the upside targeting 97.65 before reversing to the downside on the intraday to support the short term trend where our downside targets at 95.65 as an initial target and then off to 94.00 on the short term as far as 97.65 remains intact.The trading range for today is among the key support at 94.00 and the key resistance at 99.60. The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60.
Support: 96.65, 96.35, 95.65, 95.20, 94.85
Resistance: 97.10, 97.65, 98.40, 98.75, 99.40
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 97.65 with targets at 95.65 and stop loss with four hour closing above 98.40
CHF
After trading remained within tight ranges among 1.1585 and 1.1545, the Dollar versus Swissy was able to decline to breach the key support of the ascending channel at 1.1450 and close below it which may open the way for the pair towards 1.1355 as an initial target where a successful breakout of this level will result in a vigorous bearish wave towards the key support at 1.1165 and 1.0975 on the short term. This decline remains as far as 1.1450 remains intact and with a confirmed breach of the 1.1355 level.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.1165 and the key resistance at 1.1800.The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact with targets at 1.2245
Support: 1.1355, 1.1305, 1.1240, 1.1205, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1450, 1.1485, 1.1520, 1.1585, 1.1645
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.1450 with targets at 1.1355 and 1.1240 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.2610
CMS Forex
by Hans Nilsson

Dolar Masih Berpotensi Terkoreksi

US Index 84.99
Dolar AS mengalami tekanan di sesi Asia hari ini, berkat pemulihan indeks saham Asia, setelah investor melihat sejumlah data ekonomi AS yang dirilis kemarin, meredakan kekhawatiran terhadap resesi ekonomi berkepanjangan di AS dan menurunnya permintaan untuk asset yang lebih aman, meskipun kekhawatiran terhadap meluasnya wabah flu babi dan laporan dari Wall Street Journal bahwa Citigroup dan Bank of America masih memerlukan capital berdasarkan hasil awal dari hasil uji kelayakan pemerintah terhadap bank-bank besar di AS. Spekulasi data GDP Q1 AS yang dirilis nanti malam, akan terkontraksi 5.0% di kuartal pertama, setelah mengalami penurunan 6.3% di kuartal empat 2008, diikuti spekulasi the Fed akan mempertahankan suku bunga pinjaman dalam range 0-0.25% dan mengumumkan keputusan mereka untuk membeli Treasury dan mortgage securities, mendorong pelemahan dolar terhadap mata uang Eropa. Semalam, AS memberikan signal bahwa ekonomi mulai menunjukkan kestabilan, dimana the Conference Board Consumer Confidence bulan April meningkat lebih dari perkiraan 39.2 dan laporan yang menunjukkan penurunan harga rumah di 20 kota AS, dari Case/Shiller Index, melambat untuk pertama kali sejak tahun 2007. Potensi penurunan dolar terbatas pada hari ini, karena investor masih khawatir mengenai wabah flu babi.

EURUSD 1.3194
Euro pada hari ini, masih melanjutkan penguatanya terhadap dolar dan yen, berkat meningkatnya keyakinan investor untuk memburu aset yang beresiko, setelah laporan ekonomi AS semalam memberikan signal bahwa ekonomi AS mulai stabil dan penguatan indeks saham Asia di tengah liburnya pasar Tokyo hari ini, masih memberikan sentiment positif kepada euro dolar. Sementara pernyataan pejabat ECB Lorenzo Bini Smaghi yang mengungkapkan kekhawatiran mengenai quantitative easing di zona euro, meredam harapan untuk keputusan tersebut dalam pertemuan ECB di pekan depan ikut memberikan keuntungan kepada euro dolar. Euro menguat 0.8% terhadap dolar, ditutup di 1.3132 kemarin. Karena data GDP Q1 AS yang diperkirakan terkontraksi -5.0% nanti malam dan kekhawatiran wabah flu babi, seharusnya masih memainkan peran risk aversion di pasar mata uang. Sementara potensi penguatan euro dolar pada hari ini mungkin terbatas berkat kekhawatiran tiada kepahaman diantara pejabat bank sentral ECB mengenai ukuran yang diperlukan untuk mengatasi resesi di 16-negara. Pada hari ini, anggota eksekutif ECB Juergen Stark akan berbicara dan Ewald Nowotny akan berbicara di Viena besok.

USDJPY 96.80
Yen melemah untuk pertama kali dalam sepekan ini terhadap dolar dan euro berkat spekulasi laporan ekonomi dan pertemuan bank sentral AS pada hari in akan memberikan bukti bahwa ekonomi global mungkin pulih dari resesi. Yen menghentikan penguatan selama 8-hari berturut-turut terhadap won Korea Selatan setelah pemerintah Korsel mengatakan surplus neraca perdagangan mengalami rekor kenaikan di bulan Maret. Yen melemah ke Y 96.93 di sesi Asia, dibandingkan Y 96.45, yen juga melemah ke Y 127.55 per euro dari Y 126.79 di New York semalam. Pelemahan yen juga berkat lebih baik dari perkiraan data ekonomi AS semalam, yang mendorong perkiraan ekonomi AS mulai stabil dan aksi hedging oleh eksportir Jepang menjelang liburan “Golden Week” di Jepang. Meski potensi pelemahan yen terbatas berkat kekhawatiran mengenai meluasnya wabah flu babi di Amerika dan Eropa belum mereda, diikuti spekulasi data GDP Q1 AS akan mendukung ekonomi AS masih berada dalam resesi ekonomi berkepanjangan, yang dapat mendorong investor memburu kembali yen sebagai mata uang safe haven.

GBP-USD 1.4701
Pound sterling mengalami penguatan lebih lanjut di pasar Asia hari ini, berkat melemahnya dolar AS terhadap mata uang euro dan Swiss franc, setelah data ekonomi AS yang memberikan signal ekonomi AS mulai stabil, meningkatkan permintaan untuk asset yang beresiko seperti saham dan komoditi. Investor terlihat mengacuhkan isu meluasnya wabah flu babi dan fundamental ekonomi Inggris yang mengalami kontraksi di pertumbuhan terbesar sejak tahun 1979. Di tengah minimnya data ekonomi dari Inggris pada pekan ini dan masa liburan di Jepang (Golden Week), mempetipis volume perdagangan di pasar mata uang, ikut memberikan momentum konsolidasi untuk pergerakan mata uang pound sterling terhadap dolar. Spekulasi the Fed masih mempertahankan suku bunga dan melanjutkan program pembelian Treasury dan Mortgage Securities, serta GDP Q1 AS yang diperkirakan terkontraksi di Q1, seharusnya masih dapat menahan laju penguatan pound sterling terhadap dolar lebih lanjut pada hari ini.

Swiss franc mengalami penguatan terhadap dolar AS, berkat perkiraan ekonomi AS mulai stabil dan meredanya kekhawatiran mengenai meluasnya wabah flu babi yang menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang dolar dan aksi investor yang melakukan aksi profit-taking menjelang rilisan data GDP Q1 AS dan pertemuan FOMC AS yang diperkirakan mempertahankan suku bunga dan masih melanjutkan pembelian Treasury dan Mortgage Securities. Meskipun kemarin Swiss franc sempat melemah terhadap dolar, berkat laporan dari Wall Street Journal bahwa Bank of America dan Citigroup Corp AS masih memerlukan dana tambahan dalam hasil awal Stress Test 19 bank milik pemerintah AS. Meningkatnya kekhawatiran meluasnya wabah flu babi di Eropa dan jika data GDP Q1 AS tercatat lebih rendah dari perkiraan pasar, dapat mendorong risk aversion kembali, mendorong investor memburu dolar AS dan yen pada akhir pekan ini, terutama menjelang hasil akhir stress test 19 bank di AS pada 4 Mei mendatang.

Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) melanjutkan penguatan di pasar Asia, mengakhiri penurunan selama 2 hari berturut-turut kemarin, karena laporan yang menunjukkan ekspor Selandia Baru menguat lebih tinggi dari perkiraan pasar dan laporan ekonomi AS semalam (Consumer Confidence & S&P/Case-Shiller House Price) mengalami kenaikan lebih baik dari perkiraan pasar. Kiwi menguat hari ini ke 0.5629, berkat laporan ekspor menguat 18% dan deficit perdagangan menyusut karena kenaikan harga komoditi. Aussie dan kiwi juga menguat berkat kekhawatiran mengenai meluasnya wabah flu babi telah mereda. Volume perdagangan mata uang di Asia pada hari ini akan menipis, karena liburan di Jepang (Golden Week). Tetapi spekulasi penurunan suku bunga RBNZ besok sebesar 50 bsp menjadi 2.50%, masih membebani kinerja aussie dan kiwi.

Perkiraan Profit Taking Euro & Pound Menjelang GDP Q1 & FOMC AS

US Index 84.99
Dolar AS mengalami tekanan di sesi Asia hari ini, berkat pemulihan indeks saham Asia, setelah investor melihat sejumlah data ekonomi AS yang dirilis kemarin, meredakan kekhawatiran terhadap resesi ekonomi berkepanjangan di AS dan menurunnya permintaan untuk asset yang lebih aman, meskipun kekhawatiran terhadap meluasnya wabah flu babi dan laporan dari Wall Street Journal bahwa Citigroup dan Bank of America masih memerlukan capital berdasarkan hasil awal dari hasil uji kelayakan pemerintah terhadap bank-bank besar di AS. Spekulasi data GDP Q1 AS yang dirilis nanti malam, akan terkontraksi 5.0% di kuartal pertama, setelah mengalami penurunan 6.3% di kuartal empat 2008, diikuti spekulasi the Fed akan mempertahankan suku bunga pinjaman dalam range 0-0.25% dan mengumumkan keputusan mereka untuk membeli Treasury dan mortgage securities, mendorong pelemahan dolar terhadap mata uang Eropa. Semalam, AS memberikan signal bahwa ekonomi mulai menunjukkan kestabilan, dimana the Conference Board Consumer Confidence bulan April meningkat lebih dari perkiraan 39.2 dan laporan yang menunjukkan penurunan harga rumah di 20 kota AS, dari Case/Shiller Index, melambat untuk pertama kali sejak tahun 2007. Potensi penurunan dolar terbatas pada hari ini, karena investor masih khawatir mengenai wabah flu babi.

EURUSD 1.3194
Euro pada hari ini, masih melanjutkan penguatanya terhadap dolar dan yen, berkat meningkatnya keyakinan investor untuk memburu aset yang beresiko, setelah laporan ekonomi AS semalam memberikan signal bahwa ekonomi AS mulai stabil dan penguatan indeks saham Asia di tengah liburnya pasar Tokyo hari ini, masih memberikan sentiment positif kepada euro dolar. Sementara pernyataan pejabat ECB Lorenzo Bini Smaghi yang mengungkapkan kekhawatiran mengenai quantitative easing di zona euro, meredam harapan untuk keputusan tersebut dalam pertemuan ECB di pekan depan ikut memberikan keuntungan kepada euro dolar. Euro menguat 0.8% terhadap dolar, ditutup di 1.3132 kemarin. Karena data GDP Q1 AS yang diperkirakan terkontraksi -5.0% nanti malam dan kekhawatiran wabah flu babi, seharusnya masih memainkan peran risk aversion di pasar mata uang. Sementara potensi penguatan euro dolar pada hari ini mungkin terbatas berkat kekhawatiran tiada kepahaman diantara pejabat bank sentral ECB mengenai ukuran yang diperlukan untuk mengatasi resesi di 16-negara. Pada hari ini, anggota eksekutif ECB Juergen Stark akan berbicara dan Ewald Nowotny akan berbicara di Viena besok.

USDJPY 96.80
Yen melemah untuk pertama kali dalam sepekan ini terhadap dolar dan euro berkat spekulasi laporan ekonomi dan pertemuan bank sentral AS pada hari in akan memberikan bukti bahwa ekonomi global mungkin pulih dari resesi. Yen menghentikan penguatan selama 8-hari berturut-turut terhadap won Korea Selatan setelah pemerintah Korsel mengatakan surplus neraca perdagangan mengalami rekor kenaikan di bulan Maret. Yen melemah ke Y 96.93 di sesi Asia, dibandingkan Y 96.45, yen juga melemah ke Y 127.55 per euro dari Y 126.79 di New York semalam. Pelemahan yen juga berkat lebih baik dari perkiraan data ekonomi AS semalam, yang mendorong perkiraan ekonomi AS mulai stabil dan aksi hedging oleh eksportir Jepang menjelang liburan “Golden Week” di Jepang. Meski potensi pelemahan yen terbatas berkat kekhawatiran mengenai meluasnya wabah flu babi di Amerika dan Eropa belum mereda, diikuti spekulasi data GDP Q1 AS akan mendukung ekonomi AS masih berada dalam resesi ekonomi berkepanjangan, yang dapat mendorong investor memburu kembali yen sebagai mata uang safe haven.

GBP-USD 1.4701
Pound sterling mengalami penguatan lebih lanjut di pasar Asia hari ini, berkat melemahnya dolar AS terhadap mata uang euro dan Swiss franc, setelah data ekonomi AS yang memberikan signal ekonomi AS mulai stabil, meningkatkan permintaan untuk asset yang beresiko seperti saham dan komoditi. Investor terlihat mengacuhkan isu meluasnya wabah flu babi dan fundamental ekonomi Inggris yang mengalami kontraksi di pertumbuhan terbesar sejak tahun 1979. Di tengah minimnya data ekonomi dari Inggris pada pekan ini dan masa liburan di Jepang (Golden Week), mempetipis volume perdagangan di pasar mata uang, ikut memberikan momentum konsolidasi untuk pergerakan mata uang pound sterling terhadap dolar. Spekulasi the Fed masih mempertahankan suku bunga dan melanjutkan program pembelian Treasury dan Mortgage Securities, serta GDP Q1 AS yang diperkirakan terkontraksi di Q1, seharusnya masih dapat menahan laju penguatan pound sterling terhadap dolar lebih lanjut pada hari ini.

USDCHF 1.1414
Swiss franc mengalami penguatan terhadap dolar AS, berkat perkiraan ekonomi AS mulai stabil dan meredanya kekhawatiran mengenai meluasnya wabah flu babi yang menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang dolar dan aksi investor yang melakukan aksi profit-taking menjelang rilisan data GDP Q1 AS dan pertemuan FOMC AS yang diperkirakan mempertahankan suku bunga dan masih melanjutkan pembelian Treasury dan Mortgage Securities. Meskipun kemarin Swiss franc sempat melemah terhadap dolar, berkat laporan dari Wall Street Journal bahwa Bank of America dan Citigroup Corp AS masih memerlukan dana tambahan dalam hasil awal Stress Test 19 bank milik pemerintah AS. Meningkatnya kekhawatiran meluasnya wabah flu babi di Eropa dan jika data GDP Q1 AS tercatat lebih rendah dari perkiraan pasar, dapat mendorong risk aversion kembali, mendorong investor memburu dolar AS dan yen pada akhir pekan ini, terutama menjelang hasil akhir stress test 19 bank di AS pada 4 Mei mendatang.

AUDUSD 0.7128
Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) melanjutkan penguatan di pasar Asia, mengakhiri penurunan selama 2 hari berturut-turut kemarin, karena laporan yang menunjukkan ekspor Selandia Baru menguat lebih tinggi dari perkiraan pasar dan laporan ekonomi AS semalam (Consumer Confidence & S&P/Case-Shiller House Price) mengalami kenaikan lebih baik dari perkiraan pasar. Kiwi menguat hari ini ke 0.5629, berkat laporan ekspor menguat 18% dan deficit perdagangan menyusut karena kenaikan harga komoditi. Aussie dan kiwi juga menguat berkat kekhawatiran mengenai meluasnya wabah flu babi telah mereda. Volume perdagangan mata uang di Asia pada hari ini akan menipis, karena liburan di Jepang (Golden Week). Tetapi spekulasi penurunan suku bunga RBNZ besok sebesar 50 bsp menjadi 2.50%, masih membebani kinerja aussie dan kiwi.


Dolar AS mengalami tekanan di sesi Asia hari ini, berkat pemulihan indeks saham Asia, setelah investor melihat sejumlah data ekonomi AS yang dirilis kemarin, meredakan kekhawatiran terhadap resesi ekonomi berkepanjangan di AS dan menurunnya permintaan untuk asset yang lebih aman, meskipun kekhawatiran terhadap meluasnya wabah flu babi dan laporan dari Wall Street Journal bahwa Citigroup dan Bank of America masih memerlukan capital berdasarkan hasil awal dari hasil uji kelayakan pemerintah terhadap bank-bank besar di AS. Spekulasi data GDP Q1 AS yang dirilis nanti malam, akan terkontraksi 5.0% di kuartal pertama, setelah mengalami penurunan 6.3% di kuartal empat 2008, diikuti spekulasi the Fed akan mempertahankan suku bunga pinjaman dalam range 0-0.25% dan mengumumkan keputusan mereka untuk membeli Treasury dan mortgage securities, mendorong pelemahan dolar terhadap mata uang Eropa. Semalam, AS memberikan signal bahwa ekonomi mulai menunjukkan kestabilan, dimana the Conference Board Consumer Confidence bulan April meningkat lebih dari perkiraan 39.2 dan laporan yang menunjukkan penurunan harga rumah di 20 kota AS, dari Case/Shiller Index, melambat untuk pertama kali sejak tahun 2007. Potensi penurunan dolar terbatas pada hari ini, karena investor masih khawatir mengenai wabah flu babi.

Euro pada hari ini, masih melanjutkan penguatanya terhadap dolar dan yen, berkat meningkatnya keyakinan investor untuk memburu aset yang beresiko, setelah laporan ekonomi AS semalam memberikan signal bahwa ekonomi AS mulai stabil dan penguatan indeks saham Asia di tengah liburnya pasar Tokyo hari ini, masih memberikan sentiment positif kepada euro dolar. Sementara pernyataan pejabat ECB Lorenzo Bini Smaghi yang mengungkapkan kekhawatiran mengenai quantitative easing di zona euro, meredam harapan untuk keputusan tersebut dalam pertemuan ECB di pekan depan ikut memberikan keuntungan kepada euro dolar. Euro menguat 0.8% terhadap dolar, ditutup di 1.3132 kemarin. Karena data GDP Q1 AS yang diperkirakan terkontraksi -5.0% nanti malam dan kekhawatiran wabah flu babi, seharusnya masih memainkan peran risk aversion di pasar mata uang. Sementara potensi penguatan euro dolar pada hari ini mungkin terbatas berkat kekhawatiran tiada kepahaman diantara pejabat bank sentral ECB mengenai ukuran yang diperlukan untuk mengatasi resesi di 16-negara. Pada hari ini, anggota eksekutif ECB Juergen Stark akan berbicara dan Ewald Nowotny akan berbicara di Viena besok.


Yen melemah untuk pertama kali dalam sepekan ini terhadap dolar dan euro berkat spekulasi laporan ekonomi dan pertemuan bank sentral AS pada hari in akan memberikan bukti bahwa ekonomi global mungkin pulih dari resesi. Yen menghentikan penguatan selama 8-hari berturut-turut terhadap won Korea Selatan setelah pemerintah Korsel mengatakan surplus neraca perdagangan mengalami rekor kenaikan di bulan Maret. Yen melemah ke Y 96.93 di sesi Asia, dibandingkan Y 96.45, yen juga melemah ke Y 127.55 per euro dari Y 126.79 di New York semalam. Pelemahan yen juga berkat lebih baik dari perkiraan data ekonomi AS semalam, yang mendorong perkiraan ekonomi AS mulai stabil dan aksi hedging oleh eksportir Jepang menjelang liburan “Golden Week” di Jepang. Meski potensi pelemahan yen terbatas berkat kekhawatiran mengenai meluasnya wabah flu babi di Amerika dan Eropa belum mereda, diikuti spekulasi data GDP Q1 AS akan mendukung ekonomi AS masih berada dalam resesi ekonomi berkepanjangan, yang dapat mendorong investor memburu kembali yen sebagai mata uang safe haven.

Pound sterling mengalami penguatan lebih lanjut di pasar Asia hari ini, berkat melemahnya dolar AS terhadap mata uang euro dan Swiss franc, setelah data ekonomi AS yang memberikan signal ekonomi AS mulai stabil, meningkatkan permintaan untuk asset yang beresiko seperti saham dan komoditi. Investor terlihat mengacuhkan isu meluasnya wabah flu babi dan fundamental ekonomi Inggris yang mengalami kontraksi di pertumbuhan terbesar sejak tahun 1979. Di tengah minimnya data ekonomi dari Inggris pada pekan ini dan masa liburan di Jepang (Golden Week), mempetipis volume perdagangan di pasar mata uang, ikut memberikan momentum konsolidasi untuk pergerakan mata uang pound sterling terhadap dolar. Spekulasi the Fed masih mempertahankan suku bunga dan melanjutkan program pembelian Treasury dan Mortgage Securities, serta GDP Q1 AS yang diperkirakan terkontraksi di Q1, seharusnya masih dapat menahan laju penguatan pound sterling terhadap dolar lebih lanjut pada hari ini.
USD-CHF 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
1.1397 1.1965 (12/03) 1.0617 (02/01) 0.7140 0.7325 (13/04) 0.6248 (02/02)

Swiss franc mengalami penguatan terhadap dolar AS, berkat perkiraan ekonomi AS mulai stabil dan meredanya kekhawatiran mengenai meluasnya wabah flu babi yang menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang dolar dan aksi investor yang melakukan aksi profit-taking menjelang rilisan data GDP Q1 AS dan pertemuan FOMC AS yang diperkirakan mempertahankan suku bunga dan masih melanjutkan pembelian Treasury dan Mortgage Securities. Meskipun kemarin Swiss franc sempat melemah terhadap dolar, berkat laporan dari Wall Street Journal bahwa Bank of America dan Citigroup Corp AS masih memerlukan dana tambahan dalam hasil awal Stress Test 19 bank milik pemerintah AS. Meningkatnya kekhawatiran meluasnya wabah flu babi di Eropa dan jika data GDP Q1 AS tercatat lebih rendah dari perkiraan pasar, dapat mendorong risk aversion kembali, mendorong investor memburu dolar AS dan yen pada akhir pekan ini, terutama menjelang hasil akhir stress test 19 bank di AS pada 4 Mei mendatang.


Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) melanjutkan penguatan di pasar Asia, mengakhiri penurunan selama 2 hari berturut-turut kemarin, karena laporan yang menunjukkan ekspor Selandia Baru menguat lebih tinggi dari perkiraan pasar dan laporan ekonomi AS semalam (Consumer Confidence & S&P/Case-Shiller House Price) mengalami kenaikan lebih baik dari perkiraan pasar. Kiwi menguat hari ini ke 0.5629, berkat laporan ekspor menguat 18% dan deficit perdagangan menyusut karena kenaikan harga komoditi. Aussie dan kiwi juga menguat berkat kekhawatiran mengenai meluasnya wabah flu babi telah mereda. Volume perdagangan mata uang di Asia pada hari ini akan menipis, karena liburan di Jepang (Golden Week). Tetapi spekulasi penurunan suku bunga RBNZ besok sebesar 50 bsp menjadi 2.50%, masih membebani kinerja aussie dan kiwi.

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IHSG Diperkirakan Berkonsolidasi Dalam Range Sempit

Market Review
IHSG mengalami kenaikan hari Selasa, mengacuhkan kinerja regional yang masih terkoreksi akibat sentimen negatif dari meluasnya wabah flu babi dan laporan Wall Street Journal bahwa hasil Strest Test 19 bank AS dari the Fed menunjukkan Bank of America dan Citigroup Corp AS masih memerlukan tambahan dana. Perkiraan rendahnya inflasi bulan April (dirilis 01/05) mendorong spekulasi penurunan suku bunga BI di pekan depan, serta lapkeu ENRG Q1 mencatat laba lebih baik dari perkiraan dan laporan pemerintah akan menambah kepemilikan saham melalui konversi hutang menjadi saham di saham PGAS, kenaikan saham perbankan dan telekomunikasi, ikut mendorong kenaikan IHSG. IHSG sempat menguat ke level tertinggi 1,618.062 di sesi pagi, sebelum akhirnya terkoreksi mengikuti penurunan indeks saham regional Asia. IHSG ditutup naik 19.834 (+1.26%) di 1,595.915. Investor asing mencatat net buy sebesar Rp 88.27 miliar, dibandingkan net sell Rp 28.89 miliar (27/04).

Indeks saham MSCI Asia-Pacific masih melanjutkan penurunan kemarin, berkat laporan Wall Street Journal yang melaporkan 2 bank (BO & Citigroup) masih memerlukan dana tambahan dalam Strest Test AS, dan tekanan di sejumlah saham penerbangan (HK dan China), ikut membebani kinerja indeks regional Asia.

IHSG Outlook
Potensi kenaikan IHSG hari ini masih terbatas, berkat faktor regional yang tengah terkoreksi akibat kekhawatiran meluasnya wabah flu babi, masih mendominasi pergerakan di saham lokal, meskipun hari ini & besok sejumlah emiten (BBNI dll) akan melaporkan laporan keuangan Q1 2009 dan perkiraan rendahnya inflasi dirilis hari Jumat, seharusnya masih dapat menopang saham di sektor finansial, property, telekomunikasi, farmasi dan saham grup Bakrie. IHSG diperkirakan berada dalam fase konsolidasi setelah mengalami penurunan sejak awal pekan lalu, menjelang pertemuan suku bunga AS dan data GDP Q1 AS (perkiraan -5.0% Q/Q), masih membebani kinerja IHSG.

Stock Picks:
* ADMF
* ITMG

Global Outlook
Indeks saham regional Asia mendapatkan sentimen positif dari data perumahan AS (Case/Shiller) mengindikasikan penurunan harga rumah di 20 kota besar AS melambat untuk pertama kali sejak 2007 dan consumer confidence AS meningkat ke 29.9 di April, serta kenaikan saham Wal Mart dan IBM, dapat membatasi efek negatif dari laporan WSJ mengenai hasil strest test AS dan wabah flu babi. Meski kekhawatiran terhadap data GDP Q1 dan FOMC Meeting, dan tekanan di saham penerbangan, finansial di China, Hong Kong dapat membebani kinerja indeks regional Asia.

Technical Analysis:
IHSG akan mendapatkan hambatan untuk melanjutkan penguatannya pada hari ini, berkat penutupan kemarin masih berada di bawah 5 day MA (1,612) dan 200-day MA (1,611), signal dead cross antara 5 & 10-day MA (1,593), indikator stochastic dan MACD masih terkoreksi, meski ADX menunjukkan penurunan yang mengindikasikan penurunan dalam 5 sesi terakhir terlihat lemah, seharusnya mendukung potensi rebound dalam beberapa hari mendatang. Pola candle daily menunjukkan downside tasuki yang merupakan pola continuation bearish, mendukung pola konsolidasi di tengah kondisi uptrend yang overbought. Selama IHSG tidak ditutup dibawah support line di 1,564, IHSG dapat mempertahankan trend bullish jangka pendeknya, jika ditutup dibawah level tersebut target 1,501. Elliot Wave melihat IHSG masih berada dalam impulse 3 (revisi 28/04), selama bertahan di atas 50.0 fibo retracement di 1,565 dalam koreksi wave IV.
Resistance: 1638.65/1627.971617.28/1606.99. PP 1596.70
Support :1586.02/1575.33/1565.04/1554.75
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 1,570-1,620)

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Indeks Asia Mendapatkan Koreksi Penurunan Minor

SSIM9
Commentary
Secara teknikal, SSIM9 masih berada dalam kondisi uptrend terlihat dari indikator MACD yang masih berada di teritorial bullish, penutupan diatas 35-day MA di 8,420, diikuti pola rising wedge yang seharusnya mempertahankan pola kenaikan selama ditutup diatas support line di 8,510 meski dibayangi oleh pola candle hanging man yang menunjukkan indikasi bearish reversal, didukung oleh kenaikan di indikator ADX dalam kondisi stochastic yang bearish. Tembusnya small downchannel support line di 8,670 dan resistance 8,815 merupakan false break, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan konsolidasi pada hari Selasa. Jika SSIM9 ditutup dibawah support line 8,510, trend jangka pendek akan berubah menjadi netral, target 8,060/7,600. Penutupan harian diatas 8,900 seharusnya mengarahkan indeks ke target rising wedge upper line di 9,405 pekan ini. Perkiraan range hari Kamis: 8300-8750.
Rekomendasi : Sell break 8,500 target 8,100, stop 100 poin.
KSM9
Commentary
Secara teknikal, KSM9 menunjukkan signal bearish continuation berkat pola candle three black crows dan penutupan di bawah support line di 169.20, didukung oleh indikator ADX yang trending up (strong) dan stochastic menunjukkan signal dead cross, meskipun MACD masih berada di teritorial bullish, seharusnya mendukung penurunan ke target 161.8 fibo expansion di 162.50. Trend jangka pendek telah berbalik arah karena ditutup dibawah support di 168.05 (100% fibonacci expansion), target 162.54/156.86 (61.8 Fibonacci Expansion). Pola downchannel menunjukkan potensi kenaikan terbatas selama berada di bawah resistance line 171,40, memberikan support untuk mencoba rebound ke trendline 174.40, bilamana ditutup di level tersebut, akan melanjutkan uptrend ke target 177.50. Perkiraan range hari Senin: 162.50-168.00.
Rekomendasi : Buy 163.00 target 170.00, stop 100p
HSIJ9
Commentary
Secara teknikal, HSIJ9 menunjukkan signal bearish setelah mendapatkan signal bearish dari pola candle daily two crows dan ditutup dibawah 50.0 fibo di 14,596 yang seharusnya mendukung potensi penurunan ke support 14,103 (35-day MA). Indikator ADX yang trend up dan stochastic yang terkoreksi lebih lanjut, mendukung perkiraan penurunan dan membatasi potensi kenaikan selama masih ditutup dibawah former support di 14,738. tembusnya rising wedge support pada 2 hari lalu, diikuti signal crossing 10 & 20 day MA mendukung berubahnya trend bullish menjadi netral untuk jangka pendek. Tetapi karena adanya pola inverted head & shoulder, yang seharusnya mendukung perkiraan neckline di 15,980 akan menjadi strong resistance pada pekan ini. Perkiraan range hari ini: 14100-14800.
Rekomendasi : Buy 14,100 target 14,800, stop 100 poin.


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Yen Climbs to Six-Week High on Swine Flu, Concern at US Banks

(Bloomberg) -- The yen advanced to a six-week high against the euro after the World Health Organization said the swine flu outbreak is no longer containable, triggering demand for safer assets. Japan’s currency also gained for a fifth day versus the dollar after the Wall Street Journal reported that Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. are being told by regulators they need more capital, signaling the global financial crisis may be far from over. The South Korean won and Malaysian ringgit led Asian currencies lower on concern the swine flu will curb tourism and deepen the global recession.

Japan’s currency advanced to 124.56 per euro as of 7:44 a.m. in London, from 126.14 in New York yesterday. It earlier rose to 124.54, the strongest level since March 12. The yen climbed to 95.70 per dollar from 96.77, after reaching 95.68, the highest since March 23. Europe’s single currency declined to $1.3019 from $1.3036.The won tumbled 1 percent to 1,356.95 per dollar, Indonesia’s rupiah dropped 0.7 percent to 10,875, and Malaysia’s ringgit weakened 0.7 percent to 3.6237.

Billions of Dollars
The yen rose for a third day against the euro after the Wall Street Journal said Bank of America’s capital shortfall comes to billions of dollars. Both banks are objecting to the Federal Reserve’s preliminary report on the tests, and are expected to mount a detailed rebuttal, the Journal said, citing people familiar with the matter. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner indicated on April 21 that stress tests would show most of the 19 biggest U.S. banks have enough capital and said those needing more may convert government preference shares into common stock as well as seeking investments from private sources. Regulators are scheduled to release results of the tests on May 4.

A slide in Asian stocks also spurred demand for the yen. The MSCI Asia Pacific index of shares dropped 2 percent and the Nikkei 225 Stock Average slipped 2.7 percent.

Swine Flu
The yen advanced against all 16 of the most-traded currencies after the spread of swine flu beyond Mexico promoted the WHO to increase its global pandemic alert to the highest since it adopted the warning system in 2005. The number of cases in the U.S. has risen to 40 and Mexico’s toll of flu-related deaths reached 149. U.S. officials yesterday recommended citizens avoid nonessential travel to Mexico, and the European Union told travelers to avoid outbreak areas.

The euro climbed to a five-month high against the yen on April 6, having gained 11 percent between March 2 and April 6 on optimism the worst of the global financial turmoil may be over. The Australian dollar jumped nearly 19 percent against Japan’s currency between March 2 and April 13.

Mexican Peso
Mexico’s peso was little changed at 14.035 per dollar today in thin Asian trading from 14.0505 yesterday. It earlier fell to 14.1007, the weakest level since April 1. The peso slid against all of the other major currencies tracked by Bloomberg yesterday as the government shut schools until May 6 and close public events to contain swine flu.The euro fell for a second day versus the dollar on speculation ECB policy makers will this week cut interest rates and signal they may pump additional money into the economy to push down borrowing costs and counter the recession.The ECB stands “ready to use unconventional measures of quantitative easing” to increase the flow of credit, governing council member Ewald Nowotny said yesterday in New York. Executive board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi will speak in Geneva today and fellow board member Juergen Stark will speak in Siegen, Germany tomorrow.

‘Downside Risk’
Investors in the past week added to bets the ECB will cut its 1.25 percent target lending rate at its next meeting on May 7. The implied yield on the three-month Euribor interest-rate futures contract for June delivery fell to 1.29 percent today from 1.335 percent a week ago.The New Zealand dollar declined for a second day against the greenback and the yen on speculation the central bank will lower interest rates at a policy meeting this week.There is a 40 percent chance of a half percentage point cut at the April 30 policy review, according to a Credit Suisse index based on swaps trading.Benchmark rates are 3 percent in New Zealand and Australia, compared with 0.1 percent in Japan and as low as zero in the U.S., attracting investors to the South Pacific nations’ assets. New Zealand’s dollar dropped 2.1 percent to 55.38 U.S. cents from yesterday in New York. It declined 3.1 percent to 53.02 yen.

Rupiah, Ringgit Lead Drop in Asian Currencies on Swine Flu Risk
(Bloomberg) -- Asian currencies fell, led by Indonesia’s rupiah and Malaysia’s ringgit, on concern that the spread of swine flu will prolong a global recession, deterring investment in emerging-market assets.The rupiah and the ringgit slid after the World Health Organization raised its global pandemic alert, saying the disease, which has claimed 149 lives so far in Mexico, is no longer containable. South Korea’s won weakened for a second day against the dollar after the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Family Affairs said South Korea is testing a patient suspected of having the virus.The rupiah fell 0.6 percent to 10,865 per dollar at 9:40 a.m. Hong Kong time, while the ringgit slid 0.5 percent to 3.617. The won fell 0.4 percent to 1,348.50 and Taiwan’s dollar fell 0.2 percent to NT$33.80.Seven of Asia’s most-active currencies excluding the yen declined as investors sought refuge in the greenback. The ICE’s Dollar Index, a gauge of its trade-weighted value, was little changed at 85.678, after rising 1.2 percent yesterday.

Swine Flu
Swine influenza cases in the U.S. doubled to 40 and Spain yesterday reported its first infection. The European Union has told travelers to avoid outbreak areas, and Australia, Japan, Singapore and South Korea are screening air passengers.


Bank Negara Malaysia will cut its overnight rate to 1.75 percent from 2 percent tomorrow, according to six of 16 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Four forecast a reduction of half a percentage point and the remainder predicted no change. Policy makers have trimmed the benchmark three times since October, saying the economy may contract 1 percent this year.Declines in the won were limited on signs the Korean government’s $37 billion stimulus package, coupled with record interest-rate cuts, are bolstering the economy. The Kospi stock index advanced 0.8 percent as a central bank report showed consumer confidence rose to 98, the highest in at least nine months.

Economic Strength
The Taiwan dollar was bolstered as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its 2010 economic growth forecast for Taiwan to 3.5 percent from 2.5 percent as improved relations with China start to benefit businesses. Action’s Cohen expects the Taiwan dollar to strengthen to NT$32 by the end of the year as regional exports increase on a revival in global demand.Elsewhere, the Philippine peso dropped 0.3 percent to 48.82, the Thai baht fell 0.2 percent to 35.52 and the Chinese yuan was little changed at 6.8277 per dollar.