The Combination of Technical-Analysis & Astrolo9y (CTA)

Blog milik Andri Zakarias Siregar, Analis, Trader, Investor & Trainer (Fundamental/Technical/Flowtist/Bandarmologi: Saham/FX/Commodity), berpengalaman 14 tahun. Narasumber: Berita 1 First Media, Channel 95 MNC(Indovision), MetroTV, ANTV, Bloomberg BusinessWeek, Investor Today, Tempo, Trust, Media Indonesia, Bisnis Indonesia, Seputar Indonesia, Kontan, Harian Jakarta, PasFM, Inilah.com, AATI-IFTA *** Semoga analisa CTA & informasi bermanfaat. Happy Zhuan & Success Trading. Good Luck.

Saturday, February 26, 2011

Kalender Ekonomi & Event Global (28 Feb - 04 Maret 2011): A Technical Rebound To End The Worst Case???

Oil Could Cause Stocks to Slip Some More This Week
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41812981

Employment in U.S. Probably Accelerated on Manufacturing, Better Weather
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-27/payrolls-probably-accelerated-in-february-u-s-economy-preview.html

Top 12 Countries Most Likely To Go Belly Up

By Dian L. Chu

Risk analysis firm Maplecroft just released its new fiscal risk index ranking of 163 countries. Europe trumps all other regions with 11 out of twelve courtiers rated as "extreme risk." However, quite surprisingly, only one PIIGS country--Italy which takes the top spot--is in the top 12.

The others include many big economies in Europe - Belgium (2), France (3), Sweden (4), Germany (5), Hungary (6), Denmark (7), Austria (8), United Kingdom (10), Finland (11) and Greece (12). Japan at No. 9 is the only other country not in Europe within the highest risk category (See map below).

Detail: http://econforecast.blogspot.com/2011/02/top-12-cuntries-most-likely-to-go-belly.html#more

Warren Buffet's Investment Article

Buffett Says Pricing Power More Important Than Good Management
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-18/buffett-says-pricing-power-more-important-than-good-management.html

Buffett Says Goldman Deal Was a Bet on Fed, Treasury
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-10/buffett-says-goldman-purchase-was-bet-u-s-would-leverage-up-.html

Warren Buffett: 'My Trigger Finger is Itchy' for Major Acquisitions
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41794346

Listen to Warren Buffett's Omaha Office Interview with FCIC Staff
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41533123

Smiles, and a Serious Investing Lesson, As Warren Buffett Is Honored at the White House
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41604412

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Eliminates Stakes in 8 Stocks
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41584485

Buffett's Berkshire Gets Big Barron's Boost
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41234741

BlackRock Discloses 6.6% Berkshire Hathaway Class B Stake
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41396145

Waking Up with Warren
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41782842

Succession, derivatives on tap in Buffett letter
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41792209

Warren Buffett Stock Picking Secret, Revealed!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41672672

The Pricing Power Play
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=3000006415&play=1

EW: Wow!!! Oil in Wave impulse 3???

Oil Prices Spike: Blame Libya and Middle East Protests?
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/23/Oil-Prices-Spike-Blame-Libya-and-Middle-East-Protest.aspx

Why the Stock Market Must "Satisfy" Today's Social Mood
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/25/Why-the-Stock-Market-Must--Satisfy--Today-s-Social-Mood.aspx

Europe's "Red Flags": A New 32-Minute Webinar Prepares Investors
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/24/Europe-s--Red-Flags--A-New-32-Minute-Webinar-Prepares-Investors.aspx

Stocks Continue To Slide: Is It An Oil Shock?
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/24/Stocks-Continue-To-Slide-Is-It-An-Oil-Shock-.aspx

When You FEEL the Elliott Waves, Your Eyes Become Wide Open
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/24/When-you-FEEL-the-Elliott-Waves-your-eyes-become-wide-open.aspx

China Check-Up: Shanghai Composite
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/23/China-Check-Up-Shanghai-Composite-.aspx

Why is The Theorist 20 Percent Longer This Month?
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/22/Why-is-The-Theorist-20-Percent-Longer-This-Month.aspx

Friday, February 25, 2011

EW & Gann: Minor Reversal Bullish: DJIA/IHSG vs Minor Reversal Bearish Oil/Gold/IDR

IHSG 4 JAM: Bearish tapi mendekati Oversold

DJIA 4 JAM: Oversold

USD-IDR 4 JAM: Mendekati area Overbought

OIL 4 JAM: Overbought & reversal bearish

GOLD: Overbought & reversal bearish

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Global Investing Strategies: A "Lightning-Round" Look at U.S. Stocks, the Dollar, Inflation and China

If you're a regular Money Morning reader, then you know that, d uring my appearances on national television or when I'm doing media interviews around the world, I frequently participate in something called a "lightning round " - a rapid-fire interview technique in which the announcer (and sometimes even audience members) run through a list of questions in rapid-fire order.

It's a technique that really puts you on the proverbial "hot seat." But I actually enjoy it: It forces you to think on your feet - which appeals to the former trader in me - and allows you to run through a bunch of topics in a very short stretch. In one way or another, each of these topics deals with global investing strategies.

I thought you might enjoy - and perhaps even find useful - a "highlight reel" of some of the best lightning-round questions that I've received in recent weeks, both in front of the camera and during the informal discussions that follow the presentations and broadcasts.

And we'll start with the topic that seems to be one of the most popular global investing strategies topics right now - gold.

Details: http://moneymorning.com/2011/02/18/global-investing-strategies-a-lightning-round-look-at-u.s.-stocks-the-dollar-inflation-and-china/

The Commodities Boom of 2011: Coal Will Be the New Gold

Martin Hutchinson writes: The run-up in commodities prices has been a long one. And it shows no signs of abating. As a Money Morning reader, you know that we predicted this run-up. Back in October 2007, for instance, we told readers to buy gold - when it was trading at $770 an ounce. Those of you who followed our advice have done quite well.

But now it's time to make a new prediction.

The run-up in commodities prices isn't going to end. But it is going to change.
You see, commodities are going to break into two distinct groups: Traditional inflation hedges, such as gold, and big industrial commodities, such as coal. Going forward, the industrial path will be the one that investors will want to travel for maximum profit. Here's the No. 1 way to play what we're calling "the commodities boom of 2011."

Details: http://moneymorning.com/2011/02/23/commodities-boom-2011-coal-will-be-the-new-gold/

Powerful Spike in Crude Oil

Crude oil's upside pivot reversal off of last week's low at $83.85 has morphed into a powerful spike that has climbed above the prior high of $92.84 to a new, post-Dec 2008 high at $99.94 today.

The explosive upmove has blown through key resistance at $90.15 -- the 50% resistance plateau of the huge $114.87/bbl bear market from July 2007 to Dec 2008. It has hurdled key multi-week resistance at $92.30/90 into what looks like a vicious new upleg that could be heading for a confrontation with the upper channel resistance line, now up near $110.50 to $113.00.

At this juncture, only a major downside reversal that breaks and sustains beneath $92.00 will begin to compromise the developing vertical surge in oil prices and the U.S. Oil Trust ETF (USO).

Sign up for a free 15-day trial to Mike's ETF & Stock Trading Diary today.
By Mike Paulenoff
Mike Paulenoff is author of MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com), a real-time diary of his technical analysis and trading alerts on ETFs covering metals, energy, equity indices, currencies, Treasuries, and specific industries and international regions.

EW + Gann: @IHSG vs @DJIA = The Limited Bearish Continuation Mode

IHSG:

DJIA

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Update Daily Investment News 23-02

Oil May Surge to $220 If Libya, Algeria Halt, Nomura Says (2)
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aifaNmwHlZjk

Indonesia Stocks: AKR Corporindo, Bumi Resources, Indofood CBP
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aZn4DpfoaCz4

US House Prices To Continue Falling: Economist
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41731283

'Ask Warren Buffett' on Squawk Box: Send Us Your Questions Here
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41723696

End of Market Selloff Not in Sight Yet
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1811256379&play=1

Saudi Arabia Uprising Could Mean $140-Plus Oil
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41717408

Iran Tensions Good News for Dollar?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41618981

Written by India Forex
EUR/USD: The Eurusd touched higher 1.3702 yesterday. Looking ahead today, Eurozone Industrial New Orders M/M Dec expected -1.00% vs 2.10%. Immediate resistance comes at 1.3760 while immediate support is seen at 1.3644 levels. Short term: Slight bullish and Medium term: Bearish.
GBP/USD: The Sterling (1.6168) has risen from its low of 1.6101. The BOE minutes release is due today which might cause volatility in market. Daily stochastic is showing downside. Immediate support is at 1.6084(Daily 21 Middle Bollinger) while resistance comes at 1.6278 (21 upper Bollinger in daily chart). Short term: Neutral and Medium term: Bearish.
USD/JPY: The JPY strengthened to trade near 82.62 levels after some safe haven flows due to risk aversion. Yesterday Moody gave a negative outlook. Merchandise Trade Balance showed first deficit in 22 months at 0.19T during January on stronger Yen. Immediate Support is at 82.35 (50% Daily Fibo) while immediate strong resistance is at 82.80 levels (200 H4 EMA). Yen Exporters are suggested to book Dec and Jan month's exposure on dips near 82.50 levels and Yen Importers can cover their exposure above 83.20 levels. Medium Term: Maintain Bearishness.
AUD/USD: The Aussie failed to sustain the break below the parity and has bounced back from its low of 0.9965. The broader bullish sentiment remains intact. The important Support level at 0.9860(21-Weekly EMA) to watch on the downside. Broadly the pair has been ranged between 0.9860 to 1.0200 levels. Exporters are suggested to book partially above 1.0100 levels and Importers can cover their exposure on dips. Medium term: Bullish.
Gold : The yellow metal was hovering near $ 1400 levels after some profit booking. Global concerns still weighed on the safe heaven metal. Overall it traded with a low of $1392 and high of $1406.50 yesterday. Immediate resistance is at $1410 levels while immediate support comes near $1396 levels followed by $ 1383 levels. Daily Stochastics is showing downside movement. Medium term: Maintain bullishness.
Dollar Index: The US dollar index is currently trading at 77.69 levels down by 0.15% despite better consumer confidence and manufacturing data yesterday. Market will be focused on Existing Home Sales data which is expected to show stable signs near previous 5.28 M. Immediate support comes at 77.43 while resistance at 77.87 followed by 78.00 levels. Medium Term: Slight Bullish.

Written by FXtechtrade
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.3584(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3567, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3542. Break of the latter would result in 1.3518. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3489. Continuation will give 1.3450. Today's resistance: - 1.3728 and 1.3749(main). Break would give 1.3770, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.3795. Break of the latter would result in 1.3818. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.3841. Continuation will give 1.3866.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 82.32(main). Break would bring 82.11, where correction is possible. Then 82.03, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 81.88. If a strong impulse, we would see 81.65. Continuation would give 81.43 and 81.22.
Today's resistance: - 83.08, 83.54, 83.70 and 83.94(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 84.13, where also a correction may be. Then 84.34. If a strong impulse, we would see 84.48. Continuation will give 84.60.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 12126.40(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 12093.75, where correction also can be. Then follows 12068.30. Be there a strong impulse, we shall see 12045.76. Continuation will bring 12014.20. Today's resistance: - 12240.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 12263.44, where a correction may happen. Then follows 12285.14, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 12306.82. Continuation would bring 12341.23.

Written By Admiral Forex
Currency pair EUR/USD
Probably, as the wave (i) of [iii] the wedge 3-3-3-3-3 is formed. If the assumption is true, the Zigzag v of (i) now develops. At the same time, it is clear, that the wedge with such formula can appear simply Triple Zigzag (x) of [ii]. In such case it is necessary to pass to the alternative variant of the labelling.

Currency pair GBP/USD.
Presumably, the impulse is formed? an of (y) of [ii]. If the assumption is true, as its development it is possible to expect continuation of falling of pair

Currency pair USD/JPY.
While the pair remains within the limits of the forecast. Presumably, the price has started development of the impulse [iii] of 5. If it so within the limits of its complete set, it is possible to expect continuation of descending movement.

Wednesday Look Ahead: Oil Pressure Rises on Financial Markets

http://www.cnbc.com/id/41726787

VIX Volatility Index Soars on Libyan Revolt
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41724317

Brace for a 10% Correction in Emerging Markets
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41713510

Can Portugal Escape a Bailout?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41700307

The Bear Case on Stocks
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=3000006535&play=1

World Economy Can Survive Oil Price Surge for Now, IMF Says (1)
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a38H7ZB9mWfk&pos=10

Rupiah Strengthens on Inflows Driven by Growth, Interest Rates
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aa1JAa78S6RY

Global Economy: Advanced Economy vs

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2011/02/19/opinion/19blowcht.html?ref=opinion

EW: @IHSG vs DJIA = Sell On Rally To Get A New Low This Week???

IHSG 4 Jam

DJIA 4-Jam

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Update Daily Investment News 22-02

IEA Chief: $100 Oil 'Very, Very Bad' for Economy
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41714336

'Profit from Panic': How to Stay Safe Amid Global Unrest
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41718842

Technician Sees Stocks Taking a Breather — Not Correction
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41718490

$100 Oil? Here's What To Do In The Currency Markets
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41717285

Buy Oil, Not US Stocks: Marc Faber
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41713182

Halftime: Is Sell-Off a One Day Event?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41717393

Art Cashin: The Real Middle East Danger Now
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41715992

Written by FXtechtrade

EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.3584(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3567, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3542. Break of the latter would result in 1.3518. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3489. Continuation will give 1.3450. Today's resistance: - 1.3686, 1.3728 and 1.3749(main). Break would give 1.3770, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.3795. Break of the latter would result in 1.3818. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.3841. Continuation will give 1.3866.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 82.57(main). Break would bring 82.32, where correction is possible. Then 82.03, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 81.88. If a strong impulse, we would see 81.65. Continuation would give 81.43 and 81.22.
Today's resistance: - 83.54, 83.70 and 83.94(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 84.13, where also a correction may be. Then 84.34. If a strong impulse, we would see 84.48. Continuation will give 84.60.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 12301.88 and 12274.63(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 12253.90, where correction also can be. Then follows 12216.36 Be there a strong impulse, we shall see 12195.07. Continuation will bring 12158.30. Today's resistance: - 12403.13 and 12424.19(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 12451.70, where a correction may happen. Then follows 12473.28, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 12498.80. Continuation would bring 12528.47.

Written by India Forex

EUR/USD: The Eurusd slipped towards 1.3580 levels despite German IFO improved to record highs in February to 111.2 vs. 110.3 previously. Looking ahead today, GfK German Consumer Climate is likely to improve. Immediate resistance comes at 1.3640 while immediate support is seen at 1.3528 levels. Short term: Slight bullish and Medium term: Bearish.
GBP/USD: The Pound also went down due to the dollar's strength and it is currently trading at 1.6155 levels. Daily stochastic showing downside movement . Immediate support is at 1.6065(Daily 21 Middle Bollinger) while resistance comes at 1.6280 (21 upper Bollinger in daily chart). Neutral and Medium term: Bearish.
Gold: The yellow metal spiked above $ 1400 levels for consecutive seventh session after making a high at $ 1411.15, following the increasing political up rise in the Middle East. There has been a robust physical demand seen in the yellow metal as a safe heaven. Immediate support for gold is near $1400 levels followed by $ 1391 while immediate resistance is at $ 1411.15(21/02/2011) levels. Medium term: Maintain bullishness.
Dollar Index: The US dollar index is slightly higher on safe haven buying, currently trading at 78.41 levels up by 0.54%. Market will be focused on CB Consumer Confidence which is going to improve along with Richmond Manufacturing Index which is expected stable. Immediate support comes at 78.02 levels (8 hourly 55 EMA) followed by 77.86 (8 hourly 21 EMA) while resistance at 78.32 levels (8 Hourly 21 Upper Bollinger). Medium Term: Slight Bullish.

Tuesday Look Ahead: What's the Tipping Point for Oil Prices?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41710060

Nasdaq May Retreat 11% after Reaching 3000: Charts
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41711562

Asian Fund Managers Hoard Cash as Stocks Get Cheaper
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41698276

China Behind the Curve in Raising Rates: Analyst
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41699284

Oil Markets to Price in More Risk on Mideast Tensions: Survey
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41698031

Hunger Stalks Risk-On Trade: Analyst
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41663574

History Suggests Higher Oil = Risk Off: Analyst
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41712753

Will the Euro Crisis Strike Back?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41701410

Euro May Fall to 5-Month Low on Trend Break: Technical Analysis
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=awbMVmeOxeLY

Property Bubble Brewing in Asia: Economist
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41710133

Commodity and Financial Markets Cycles Analysis

Hugh Hendry of Eclectica Asset Management and Gary Shilling of A Gary Shilling Company are bearish on China, and the world. We must pay respect to both of these market players as they have had an abundance of correct market calls in the past. Their opinions are contrarian, so for trends to change, major cycles must be ready to roll over. Lets review a few...

First, how can market cycles roll over in a world undergoing massive quantitative easing (QE1 and QE2)? Is it possible that the US Federal Reserve as tamed the market so that there is no more pullbacks, swings or cycles. The US has experienced 'the before/during' quantitative easing (QE = money printing), and has yet undergo the 'after'. A quick review of the 'before' and 'after' effects on the N225 from quantitative easing during Japanese great deflationary bust shows that the 'after' can be very unpleasant.

N225 Chart

We can see the N225 rallied hard during each of the Japanese quantitative easing (QE) periods. However when QE ended so did the rallies. The American QE programs have been back to back (2009 and 2010), unlike the Japanese experience. One can only imagine what will happen to the worlds financial markets when the American QE ends, if it is anything like the Japanese experience then I fear that the cycles rolling over will be very severe. Copper, Australian and Canadian dollar have all enjoyed strong bullish cycles. They will be our subjects.

The Australian Dollar and Copper are two securities that are aligned to China success story. Copper has been used heavily within Chinese construction industry, and Australia has supplied much of it to them, along with steel, coal, etc. Any hick up with China's story and these two securities will roll over hard. China cannot sustain 10% GDP growth without exports to both Europe and USA. Yet the America and Europe economies have lived off QE to support their GDP growth. What if the QE stops or paused for a few years, what then. If growth cant be maintained without QE, what will happen to the Australian, Canadian dollar and copper cycles, that is easy they will roll over hard !

We all now that the rise and fall of the US dollar as much to do with the cycles below, markets are very correlated. Comments on the US dollar can be found here: US Dollar currency, short term bullish, long term bearish not so sure

NOTE: The cycles found the charts that follow were found with RTT Cycle Finder Spectrum.

Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

Copper in US Dollars

Canadian Dollar

For the world to avoid these cycles rolling over during 2011/12 quantitative easing would need to be continuous. Its too early to say how or when stimulus Keynesian polices will end, I fear that they never will. As the politicians and central bankers have enjoyed this economic power, and power does corrupt.

Readtheticker
My website: www.readtheticker.com
My blog: http://www.readtheticker.com/Pages/Blog1.aspx

6 Charts Which Prove That Central Banks All Over The Globe Are Recklessly Printing Money

If the U.S. dollar is being devalued so rapidly, then why does it sometimes increase in value against other global currencies? Well, it is because everybody is recklessly printing money now. The 6 charts which you are about to see below prove this. The truth is that it is not just the U.S. Federal Reserve which has been printing money like there is no tomorrow. Out of control money printing has also been happening in the UK, in the EU, in Japan, in China and in India. There are times when one particular global currency will fall faster than the others, but the reality is that they are all being rapidly devalued. Unfortunately, this is a recipe for a global economic nightmare.

Right now you can almost smell the panic as it rises in global financial markets. Investors all over the world are racing to get out of paper and to get into hard assets. Just about anything that is “real” and “tangible” is hot right now. Gold hit a record high last year and it is on the rise again. In fact, it just hit a new five-week high. Demand for silver is becoming absolutely ridiculous right now. Oil is marching up towards $100 a barrel again. Agricultural commodities have exploded in price over the past year. Many investors are even gobbling up art and other collectibles.

http://www.dailymarkets.com/economy/2011/02/21/6-charts-which-prove-that-central-banks-all-over-the-globe-are-recklessly-printing-money/

EW: @IHSG & DJIA (Top Reversal Minor) vs Gold & Oil (Bottom Reversal)???

IHSG Volume Bar: Demand yang menipis, berpeluang koreksi kembali ke 3.387-3.336. Potensi kenaikan terbatas di pekan ini.

IHSG EW Daily: Kondisi overbought (stochastic crossover sell), chart 4 jam menunjukkan bearish continuation target 3.387/3.336/3.309

DJIA Daily: very overbought, stochastic divergence sell, mendekati target sell 12.400 (high 12.391:18/02), potensi koreksi ke support 12.158/11.981.

Oil Daily: kondisi bottom reversal, menuju target resist 97/98/100, selama bertahan diatas 88.40

Gold Daily: berpeluang menuju resist 1431 record high, jika tembus ke 1.471/1.510.

Monday, February 21, 2011

S&P 500 /DJIA Technical Chart Analysis: Powerful Wave 3 Bull Market Rally Not Over Yet

SPX Chart Analysis
Wave ii was essentially a zigzag (more noticeably a zigzag in other indices) and the proposed wave iv is a clear flat, so there would be alternation. But the November decline lasted a month and the late January correction took less than two weeks.

The SPX futures chart shows that the proposed wave iv tagged the lower rail of the uptrend, which gives more credence to this count:

We can also see that three Fibonacci extension targets converge in this area, suggesting that some kind of top could occur there.

A somewhat more bullish scenario calls for a correction of a lesser degree in the 1340 area followed by a rally to a cluster of Fibonacci targets in the 1500 zone for a Wave 3 top. The penetration and weekly close above the rising blue trendline suggests this scenario may have some validity. After consideration of all currently available data I am tending to lean towards this scenario.

The bearish count could see a C wave top at any time. Any break of the uptrend off the September bottom would put this scenario in play.

The 161.8% Fib extension of the proposed A wave comes in just a few points shy of the 2007 high, so its conceivable that Wave 2 could retrace nearly 100% of Wave 1 before failing in a Wave 3 bear market.
http://www.dailymarkets.com/stock/2011/02/20/sp-500-technical-chart-analysis-powerful-wave-3-bull-market-rally-not-over-yet/

Turmoil in the Middle East: Will Saudi Arabia be Next?

With the recent turmoil across North Africa and the Gulf, investors are now becoming increasingly concerned that the ‘political contagion,’ as the wave of upheaval has come to be known, may flow over into Saudi Arabia as well. The worry is that the protests in various parts of the Arab World will embolden Saudi youths, or the minority Shiites in the east, to revolt in a similar fashion.

The country supplies about 12% of global oil production and sits on at least a fifth of the world’s oil reserves.

By being on the eastern border of the Kingdom, Bahrain is near key parts of the country’s crude reserves. Although doubtful that Saudi Arabia would be drawn into the contagion, “the fear factor could potentially force oil prices higher and leave the equity markets lower”, Gary Dugan, CIO at Emirates NBD, told CNBC.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/41690671?__source=aol|headline|other|text|&par=aol

Other Sources:
http://story.arabherald.com/index.php/ct/9/cid/940f2bfd509e743b/id/43129731/

Kilduff: When It Comes to the Middle East - Saudi Arabia Is Key
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41663928

Middle East Turmoil: Is Saudi Arabia Next?
http://www.frumforum.com/middle-east-turmoil-is-saudi-arabia-next

Middle East Turmoil: Saudi Arabia Apart From The Rest?
http://www.mepc.org/articles-commentary/commentary/middle-east-turmoil-saudi-arabia-apart-rest

TURMOIL IN THE MIDDLE EAST: IS SAUDI ARABIA NEXT?
http://eu-digest.blogspot.com/2011/01/turmoil-in-middle-east-is-saudi-arabia.html
http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=10317

Turmoil in the Middle East: Bahrain's Revolution
http://www.thenewamerican.com/index.php/world-mainmenu-26/africa-mainmenu-27/6374-turmoil-in-the-middle-east-bahrains-revolution

Protests Weigh on Gulf Arab Stocks
http://www.cnbc.com//id/41696109

Saudi Stocks Drop for a Fifth Day on Growing Unrest
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-19/saudi-stocks-drop-for-a-fifth-day-on-growing-middle-east-unrest.html

Stock Market Selloffs Ignite U.S. Dollar Rallies

The inevitable periodic selloffs in the general stock markets indiscriminately hammer all stocks lower. But they pose a special magnified risk to commodities stocks. In addition to weighing on this sector directly, stock selloffs ignite fast US dollar rallies. This rapidly drives dollar-denominated commodities prices lower, amplifying the selling pressure faced by commodities stocks.

The threat of a stock-market selloff is particularly relevant today. The flagship S&P 500 stock index (SPX) is extremely overbought technically, and sentiment is wildly complacent and bullish. Key indicators reflecting traders’ collective psychology are pegged near dangerous levels from where past major SPX selloffs started. Right now the stock markets are as ripe for a major correction as they’ve ever been.

Meanwhile the Continuous Commodity Index (CCI) continues to achieve new all-time record highs, reflecting similar exuberance in the commodities realm. And the benchmark US Dollar Index (USDX, the best proxy for this currency) is relatively low with lots of room to soar. I can’t imagine a more-perfect scenario for an SPX selloff igniting a USDX rally that temporarily crushes commodities prices!

Market Profile & EW: IHSG vs DJIA = Intraday Overbought In Extend Bull

Dapatkan hari ini Technical Analysis Weekly (Sektor Basic Industry) 11 Saham + IHSG vs DJIA Pekan ini (21 - 25 February 2011), berikut Track Record Sektor Property (07 -11 Feb) & Sektor Agriculture (14-18 Feb) hanya di BNI Securities (NI). Berikutnya akan dirilis Monthly Report TA BNIS (Edisi Maret: 01 Maret 2011) & Quarterly Report TA (Q2: 01 April).

IHSG M

IHSG 4-Jam

DJIA 4-Jam

Sunday, February 20, 2011

Warren Buffett Stock Picking Secret, Revealed!

Want to bet more like Buffett? You can. We've just learned one of his major stock picking secrets! When Warren Buffett puts money to work he obviously evaluates many factors; but it appears one factor stands head and shoulders above the rest.

And that’s pricing power.

According to Bloomberg, “The single most important decision in evaluating a business is pricing power,” Buffett told the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in an interview released by the panel last week.

“If you’ve got the power to raise prices without losing business to a competitor, you’ve got a very good business. And if you have to have a prayer session before raising the price by 10 percent, then you’ve got a terrible business.”

And that leads to an obvious question. Which companies have pricing power?

For insights we turned to our own Oracle - Anthony Scaramucci of SkyBridge Capital, a leading alternative asset manager with more than $7 billion under management.

He tells us Buffett's pricing power thesis leads him to these three names.
    * Philip Morris [PM 61.43    0.59 (+0.97%)   ]
      - How they get pricing power: They sell cigarettes, an addictive product. Also he says there are very high barriers to entry.
    * Walter Energy [WLT 121.98    -6.32 (-4.93%)   ]
      - How they get pricing power: They provide of metallurgical coal a necessary element of steel production.
    * Loral Space & Communication [LORL 78.91    -0.19 (-0.24%)   ]
      - How they get pricing power: They control 70% of the market.

Get all the details. Watch the video now!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41672672

Kalender Ekonomi & Event Global (21 - 25 Februari 2011): A Cautious Bull Run This Weekend

WIB: +12 Jam
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

Market Insider: Wall Street's Bull Strolls Into the Week Ahead
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41671760

Econorama
The week's economic data kicks off Tuesday with S&P/Case-Shiller home prices. Other housing data includes existing home sales Wednesday and FHFA home prices Thursday. Consumer confidence is reported Tuesday and consumer sentiment is reported Friday. On Thursday, weekly jobless claims and durable goods are also released. On Friday, the government releases its revision to fourth quarter GDP.

Earnings Central
A flurry of retail earnings dominate the coming week's earnings calendar. Wal-Mart, Home Depot, Barnes and Noble, RadioShack and Office Depot report Tuesday. Lowes, Saks, TJX, Limited Brands and Dollar Tree report Wednesday. Target, Sears, Safeway, Gap and Kohl's report Thursday, and JCPenney reports Friday. Besides retailers, Hewlett-Packard, Chesapeake, Mohawk and Hertz report after Tuesday's bell. DirecTv, Fluor, Vornado, Washington Post and Transocean report Wednesday. General Motors, Newmont Mining, CMS Energy, Dish, Salesforce.com and Imax report Thursday. Tenet Healthcare, Rowan and Public Storage report Friday. Berkshire Hathaway releases earnings along with its annual letter to shareholders on Saturday.

Home Sales Probably Fell, Goods Orders Rose as Factories Head U.S. Economy
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-20/home-sales-probably-fell-goods-orders-rose-as-factories-head-u-s-economy.html