Friday, June 19, 2009
Stock Market Downtrend Targeting Key Support S&P500 at 850
The long-term Elliott Wave count of the S&P 500 Index is shown below, with the thought pattern forming denoted in green. Whenever the pattern is complete, expect the S&P to head lower.
Pound May Drop to 1-Week Low Against Dollar: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The pound may drop to the lowest level in more than a week against the dollar if it closes below its 20-day moving average, Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. said. Britain’s currency may fall to $1.60, the weakest since June 9, Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy in New York, said today in an e-mail. The pound slid 1.1 percent to $1.6226 as of 1:16 p.m. in London. It earlier fell through the 20-day moving average of $1.6223.The worst recession since at least 1979 led Standard & Poor’s to revise its outlook for the U.K. to negative from stable last month, saying a AAA credit rating is incompatible with debt heading for 100 percent of gross domestic product. The Treasury expects to sell an unprecedented 220 billion pounds ($358 billion) of gilts in the year that began in April to revive the economy.
“The concern about the U.K. debt position is something that may come back, and that’s going to stay here in the near term,” Audrey Childe-Freeman, a senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers in London, said yesterday in an interview. “We’ve seen the dollar doing better in the context where we’ve seen a shaky environment in the equity markets and risk appetite. Sterling is very much influenced by such forces.”U.K. stocks fell for a second day after retail sales unexpectedly declined in May. The FTSE 100 Index dropped 0.6 percent to the lowest level since May 1.The pound will fall to $1.61 by year-end, according to the median forecast of 41 strategists surveyed by Bloomberg News.A moving average is a technical indicator that displays the average value of an index or security over a period of time. In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.
“The concern about the U.K. debt position is something that may come back, and that’s going to stay here in the near term,” Audrey Childe-Freeman, a senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers in London, said yesterday in an interview. “We’ve seen the dollar doing better in the context where we’ve seen a shaky environment in the equity markets and risk appetite. Sterling is very much influenced by such forces.”U.K. stocks fell for a second day after retail sales unexpectedly declined in May. The FTSE 100 Index dropped 0.6 percent to the lowest level since May 1.The pound will fall to $1.61 by year-end, according to the median forecast of 41 strategists surveyed by Bloomberg News.A moving average is a technical indicator that displays the average value of an index or security over a period of time. In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Intraday outlook in crude oil remains neutral at this moment as consolidation from 73.23 is still in progress. Nevertheless, we'd maintain that there is no sign of reversal with 66.79 support intact. Hence, recent rally is still in progress. Above 73.23 will bring rally resumption to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next. On the downside, however, bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Break of 66.79 support will argue that a short term top is at least formed and rise from 43.83 has likely completed. In such case, deeper decline should be seen to 56.07/60.08 support zone.
In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of topping in crude oil yet and current rally might extend further to above 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. But after all, crude oil is clearly overbought in daily RSI and some consolidations should be around the corner. Strong resistance will likely be seen between 76.77 fibo resistance and next key level of 90, (50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.23) and at least bring some pull back.
Meanwhile, in case of a correction, focus will turn 54.66 key medium term resistance turned support. As long as it holds, we'd continue to favor the rally from 33.20 to continue further. But a break of 54.66 will be an important indication that whole rise from 33.2 low has completed and should turn outlook bearish then.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Intraday outlook in crude oil remains neutral at this moment as consolidation from 73.23 is still in progress. Nevertheless, we'd maintain that there is no sign of reversal with 66.79 support intact. Hence, recent rally is still in progress. Above 73.23 will bring rally resumption to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next. On the downside, however, bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Break of 66.79 support will argue that a short term top is at least formed and rise from 43.83 has likely completed. In such case, deeper decline should be seen to 56.07/60.08 support zone.
In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of topping in crude oil yet and current rally might extend further to above 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. But after all, crude oil is clearly overbought in daily RSI and some consolidations should be around the corner. Strong resistance will likely be seen between 76.77 fibo resistance and next key level of 90, (50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.23) and at least bring some pull back.
Meanwhile, in case of a correction, focus will turn 54.66 key medium term resistance turned support. As long as it holds, we'd continue to favor the rally from 33.20 to continue further. But a break of 54.66 will be an important indication that whole rise from 33.2 low has completed and should turn outlook bearish then.
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Gold Unchanged For Week As IMF Gold-Sale Approval 'Makes No Impact', Obama's Chief Advisor Calls For 'Sustained' Stimulus
Written by Oil N' Gold
Comex Gold (GC)
Intraday outlook remains neutral for the moment but after all, break of 962.4 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 992.1 has completed. Otherwise, risk remains on the downside. Break of 915.2 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 865.6 to 922.1 at 913.9) will confirm that whole rise from 865 has completed and should then bring retest of this low. On the upside, though, above 962.4 resistance will indicate that fall from 992.1 has completed and will turn short term outlook bullish for 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone again.
In the bigger picture, recent development argues that rise from 865 has possibly completed at 992.1 already, ahead of 1007.7/1033.9 key resistance zone. Also it suggests that consolidation from 1007.7 is still in progress and break of 915.2 support will bring the third leg down to test 865 support before completing the whole consolidation. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) and bring resumption of rise from 681. On the upside, though, above 992.1 will revive the case that rise from 865 is resumption of up trend rather than part of sideway consolidation. In such case, retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance should be seen next.
Written by Oil N' Gold
Comex Gold (GC)
Intraday outlook remains neutral for the moment but after all, break of 962.4 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 992.1 has completed. Otherwise, risk remains on the downside. Break of 915.2 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 865.6 to 922.1 at 913.9) will confirm that whole rise from 865 has completed and should then bring retest of this low. On the upside, though, above 962.4 resistance will indicate that fall from 992.1 has completed and will turn short term outlook bullish for 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone again.
In the bigger picture, recent development argues that rise from 865 has possibly completed at 992.1 already, ahead of 1007.7/1033.9 key resistance zone. Also it suggests that consolidation from 1007.7 is still in progress and break of 915.2 support will bring the third leg down to test 865 support before completing the whole consolidation. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) and bring resumption of rise from 681. On the upside, though, above 992.1 will revive the case that rise from 865 is resumption of up trend rather than part of sideway consolidation. In such case, retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance should be seen next.
Fundamental Analysis For Energy Market
Written by ecPulse.com
Yesterday, oil prices gained as still investors were optimistic from the decline in U.S. stockpiles which meant that demand is strong despite the recession they are witnessing. The U.S. economy is the biggest oil consumer in the world, which is why investors eye the nation carefully and its economic data. The contract gained $0.34 closing at $71.37 while recording a high of $71.75 per barrel and a low of $70.22 per barrel.As the global stock markets rose yesterday helped oil prices extend their incline since when stock markets rise means a future increased company production therefore higher demand on oil. Now looking at oil shares we see that Exxon Mobil rose 0.02 points or 0.03% to 71.44 points, ConocoPhillips climbed 0.28 points or 0.66% to 42.81 points while Chevron Corp. fell 0.40 points or 0.58% to 68.43 points.
Reminding you dear reader of the EIA report that was released Wednesday, we see that the U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 357.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper boundary of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 3.4 million barrels last week, and are below the lower limit of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories fell last week while gasoline blending components increased during this same time. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.3 million barrels, and are above the upper boundary of the average range for this time of year.Black gold market prices extend their incline as there are worries in the market that the stimulus plans introduced by governments, will trigger inflation in the long run therefore meaning that investors enter the oil markets as a hedge against inflation as they look for a potential in profits by the end of this year. Today, the markets opened at $71.35 while recording a high of $71.75 barrel and a low of $71.33 per barrel.
The markets are volatile lately as a result of investors being confused of what direction prices are taking since on the short run they might rise yet on the long run they are still pressured from the global recession which means that demand is weak.
Yesterday, oil prices gained as still investors were optimistic from the decline in U.S. stockpiles which meant that demand is strong despite the recession they are witnessing. The U.S. economy is the biggest oil consumer in the world, which is why investors eye the nation carefully and its economic data. The contract gained $0.34 closing at $71.37 while recording a high of $71.75 per barrel and a low of $70.22 per barrel.As the global stock markets rose yesterday helped oil prices extend their incline since when stock markets rise means a future increased company production therefore higher demand on oil. Now looking at oil shares we see that Exxon Mobil rose 0.02 points or 0.03% to 71.44 points, ConocoPhillips climbed 0.28 points or 0.66% to 42.81 points while Chevron Corp. fell 0.40 points or 0.58% to 68.43 points.
Reminding you dear reader of the EIA report that was released Wednesday, we see that the U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 357.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper boundary of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 3.4 million barrels last week, and are below the lower limit of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories fell last week while gasoline blending components increased during this same time. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.3 million barrels, and are above the upper boundary of the average range for this time of year.Black gold market prices extend their incline as there are worries in the market that the stimulus plans introduced by governments, will trigger inflation in the long run therefore meaning that investors enter the oil markets as a hedge against inflation as they look for a potential in profits by the end of this year. Today, the markets opened at $71.35 while recording a high of $71.75 barrel and a low of $71.33 per barrel.
The markets are volatile lately as a result of investors being confused of what direction prices are taking since on the short run they might rise yet on the long run they are still pressured from the global recession which means that demand is weak.
Gann Chart Art In The 10 Year Yields
By Corey Rosenbloom on June 19, 2009
I thought I’d try an experiment with the 10-Year Treasury Yields Long-Term Chart and apply a little Gann analysis in terms of squaring price and time to see what the result might be.Here’s the “chart art” from my experiment which probably should be filed under “Interesting” as opposed to “Actionable.”
Ten-Year Treasury Yield “Chart Art”
(Click for Full-Size Image)
One of my clients calls this my “Mad Scientist” type experiements when I’m ‘cooking up’ new ideas or applying the deeper level technical tools such as Gann and Fibonacci, many times of which I don’t share publicly on the blog but I thought some readers might find this interesting.I started with the orignal square on the left which comes off a secondary swing low (that’s important in Gann terms) and then squared the time and price by drawing in the diagonals to achieve a perfect square.
From that original ’seed’ (the move from 1965 to 1980 - 15 years) I then simply copied and pasted both the square and the diagonals to get the three resulting squares and subdivisions.We’re most interested in seeing what happens when price comes into one of these ‘nodes’ or lines to see what happens in terms of support or resistance.
I highlighted some of the moments when price inflected off of these nodes - which still appears to me to be magic.What gets me is that it called the exact top, in terms of doubling the square to the upside. Price then retraced back to bounce off the bottom of the same square (around the 1980 to 1985 period) and then failed at the descending line.We then found key support at the midpoint of the middle box in 1986 and then later the lower box in 1997.If we’re trying to apply current analysis, it would seem that the 44.50 (which is 4.50% yield) could be a significant area to overcome… or perhaps we’re completely in a new square at the moment.
For those worried I’ll be changing my style - I won’t. This is a test - this was only a test/experiment.If there’s any Gann enthusiast readers, feel free to comment or contact me - I’m a Gann neophyte but I find the geometrics very interesting.
I thought I’d try an experiment with the 10-Year Treasury Yields Long-Term Chart and apply a little Gann analysis in terms of squaring price and time to see what the result might be.Here’s the “chart art” from my experiment which probably should be filed under “Interesting” as opposed to “Actionable.”
Ten-Year Treasury Yield “Chart Art”
(Click for Full-Size Image)
One of my clients calls this my “Mad Scientist” type experiements when I’m ‘cooking up’ new ideas or applying the deeper level technical tools such as Gann and Fibonacci, many times of which I don’t share publicly on the blog but I thought some readers might find this interesting.I started with the orignal square on the left which comes off a secondary swing low (that’s important in Gann terms) and then squared the time and price by drawing in the diagonals to achieve a perfect square.
From that original ’seed’ (the move from 1965 to 1980 - 15 years) I then simply copied and pasted both the square and the diagonals to get the three resulting squares and subdivisions.We’re most interested in seeing what happens when price comes into one of these ‘nodes’ or lines to see what happens in terms of support or resistance.
I highlighted some of the moments when price inflected off of these nodes - which still appears to me to be magic.What gets me is that it called the exact top, in terms of doubling the square to the upside. Price then retraced back to bounce off the bottom of the same square (around the 1980 to 1985 period) and then failed at the descending line.We then found key support at the midpoint of the middle box in 1986 and then later the lower box in 1997.If we’re trying to apply current analysis, it would seem that the 44.50 (which is 4.50% yield) could be a significant area to overcome… or perhaps we’re completely in a new square at the moment.
For those worried I’ll be changing my style - I won’t. This is a test - this was only a test/experiment.If there’s any Gann enthusiast readers, feel free to comment or contact me - I’m a Gann neophyte but I find the geometrics very interesting.
Committment Of Traders: Shorts Growing
By David Spurr on June 19, 2009
The COT report shows the commercial short interest growing, much as it did in December of 2008, prior to the dump that took us to 666. Something to watch.
The COT report shows the commercial short interest growing, much as it did in December of 2008, prior to the dump that took us to 666. Something to watch.
Perkiraan Range Trading Dolar AS Menjelang Expire Futures & FOMC Pekan Depan
USD Index 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low EUR-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
80.61 89.62 (04/03) 78.59 (01/06) 1.3915 1.4337 (03/06) 1.2459 (04/03)
Dolar kembali melemah di sesi perdagangan Asia hari ini berkat spekulasi the Fed akan mempertahankan kebijakan Quantitative Easing di pertemuan FOMC 22-23 Juni, meredam spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga AS di bulan September. Sebelumnya dolar menguat terhadap mata uang utama dunia, didukung oleh kekuatan dolar dari perkiraan tingginya keuntungan dari instrumen aset yang berdenominasi dolar, termasuk melejitnya suku bunga Treasury sebagaimana kenaikan suku bunga LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rates. Data ekonomi AS juga menunjukkan resesi di AS mereda, mendorong kembali spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga. Indeks Leading Indicator, yang memberikan petunjuk untuk ekonomi dalam 3-6 bulan mendatang, naik 1.2% di bulan Mei. Phily Fed rebound ke -2.2, Jobless Claims benefit anjlok untuk pertama kali dalam 6 bulan terakhir sebesar 148,000 menjadi 6.687 juta di pekan 6 Juni. Minimnya data dari AS hari ini, akan mendorong investor untuk mencari petunjuk dari pergerakan saham AS yang terlihat volatile menjelang expire kontrak futures dan opsi saham.
Euro mengalami penguatan terhadap dolar AS berkat spekulasi pejabat bank sentral Eropa hari ini akan memberikan signal mereka akan mempertahankan suku bunga di tengah meredanya pelemahan ekonomi globa. Euro juga menguat berkat eningkatnya pemulihan ekonomi global setelah sejumlah data ekonomi AS baru-baru ini meningkatka daya tarik untuk memegang saham dan komoditi global, dan menurunkan daya tarik untuk dolar yang sebelumnya mendapatkan status safe haven. Anggota ECB Mario Draghi dan Lorenzo Bini Smaghi akan berbicara pada hari ini, dapat mendorong penguatan euro dolar lebih lanjut hari ini. Di tengah minimnya data ekonomi AS pasar akan mengamati pergerakan suku bunga Libor yang sepertinya akan meningkat, dapat membatasi permintaan untuk euro dolar hari ini.
USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
96.61 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.6334 1.6661 (03/06) 1.3502 (23/01)
Yen mengalami pelemahan terhadap dolar dan euro, berkat signal ekonomi globa mungkin rebound dari keterpurukan tertajam sejak 50 tahun etrakhir yang meningkatkan permintaan untuk aset yang beresiko. Yen melemah terhadap 15 dari 16 mata uang yang aktif diperdagangkan setelah data ekonomi AS (Leading Indicator, Jobless ClaIms, Phily Fed) dirilis lebih baik dari perkiraan pasar. Sementara imbas pelemahan rupiah terhadap dolar di sesi Asia hari ini yang terpuruk ke level terendah 6-pekan karena fund global menjual saham lokal, memberikan sentimen negatif kepada yen. Kemarin World bank merevisi naik pertumbuhan ekonomi China tahun ini, menjadi 7.2% di tahun 2009 dari tahun sebelumnya, naik dari 6.5% yang diprediksi bulan Maret lalu. Yen masih berpotensi mengalami penguatan mingguan terhadap dolar dan euro. Sementara potensi penguatan yen terbatas setelah British Banker Association mengatakan mereka mungkin akan membiarkan lebih banyak institusi untuk ambil bagian dalam survei harian yang diatur dala Libor ($senilai lebih dari $ 360 triliun).
Pound sterling menguat setelah sejumlah data dari AS meningkatkan keyakinan pemulihan ekonomi global yang mengangkat saham Wall Street dan Asia pada hari ini, sehingga menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang dolar AS yang sebelumnya menjadi safe haven. Meski potensi penguatan pound terbatas setelah data Retail Sales Inggris bulan Mei secara tidak terduga anjlok 0.6% ketimbang prediksi naik 0.3%, order ekspor manufaktur melemah menjadi -52 ke level terendah dalam 1 dekade di bulan Juni. Sementara pound menguat terhadap Swiss franc di tengah spekulasi bank sentral menjual mata uang Swiss franc untuk membatasi penguatan CHF. Sebelumnya pound mendapatkan sentimen negatif dari Gubernur BOE Mervyn King bahwa perkiraan reboundnya ekonomi Inggris mungkin terlalu dini, dimana membatasi potensi penguatan pound terhadap dolar. pasar hari ini akan mencari petunjuk dari pergerakan saham dan suku bunga Libor guna mengantisipasi penguatan pound lebih lanjut.
KIE 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
10400 12,150 (02/03) 9,900 (05/06) 0.8001 0.8263 (03/06) 0.6248 (02/02)
Kontrak Indeks Emas (USD-IDR) di sesi Asia hari ini mengalami penguatan lebih lanjut ke level tertinggi 10,400 (Reuters), setelah fund global melakukan aksi penjualan saham lokal yan sempat terpuruk ke level terendah 1,922 hari ini. Meski potensi pelemahan rupiah dibatasi oleh aksi intervensi oleh Bank Indonesia di kisaran Rp 10,400, guna menahan laju pelemahan rupiah yang volatile yang didukung oleh faktor teknikal yang short term bullish setelah gagal menembus support 9850 pada pekan lalu. Menurut Bloomberg News, fund global menjual $ 78 juta saham lokal dibandingkan yang mereka beli dalam 3 hari perdagangan di pekan ini, menurunkan net buy menjadi $ 530 juta di tahun ini. Obligasi pemerintah meemah berkat kekhawatiran tingginya harga minyak akan meningkatkan inflasi dan mungkin mendorong bank sentral (BI) untuk menaikkan suku bunga. Perkiraan pemerintah akan menjual $ 200 juta SUN pada pekan depan, dapat menahan laju penguatan KIE, dan dapat mendorong kembali inflow ke pasar saham, jika lelang SUN oversubscribed. Secara teknikal KIE masih berpotensi menguat, karena indikator ADX, stochastic meningkat, meski MACD masih berada di teritorial bearish, yang dapat membatasi potensi penguatan KIE di pekan depan. Strong resistance berada di 10,675, support di 10,260. Perkiraan range hingga Senin 10300-10600.
Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) mengalami penguatan terhadap dolar dan yen, mengikis penurunan pertama mingguan sejak Mei, karena kenaikan indeks saham Asia dan indeks saham futures AS meningkatkan permintaan untuk aset yang memiliki yield yang lebih tinggi. aussie dan kiwi juga menguat berkat perbedaan suku bunga yang meningkatkan daya tarik untuk memegang aussie dan kiwi saat ini. Aussie dan kiwi memiliki korelasi 80% terhadap Standard & Poors 500 dan mengikuti Nikkei Average sebesar 90%.
Technical Analysis
EUR-USD menunjukkan pola descending triangle di chart daily, candle dark clioud cover dengan indikator MACD bullish, Stochastic & ADX terkoreksi turun, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan peluang kenaikan terbatas. Pola H&S dengan neckline di 1.3797, dapat picu penurunan lebih lanjut. Hitungan Elliot wave euro dolar dalam zig zag wave c dalam sub wave intermediate 4. Support di 1.3824 (35-day MA)/1.3794 (neckline H&S). Resistance di 1.4004 (resistance line)/1.4118 (23.6 FR)). Buy break 1.4010 target di 1.4120 stop 60p, sell break 1.3780 target 1.3400 stop 50p, buy 1.3820 target 1.4000 stop 50p. sell 1.4120 target 1.3800 stop 60p. buy break 1.4140 target 1.4330.
(+130p & Hold 96.15 target 97.50 stop 95.60). USDJPY menunjukkan signal positif dari tertahannya support line di 95.65 dan pola candle meeting lines untuk mempertahankan trend netral jangka pendek, jika ditutup dibawah level tersebut target 95.01, diikuti indikator ADX dan stochastic terkoreksi turun MACD netral, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas hari ini. Support berada di 95.80 (support line). Trend masih bearish karena ditutup dibawah 96.69 (10 MA)/96.38 (200 MA). Resistance berada di 97.70/98.41. Buy break 98.45 target 99.80 stop 60p, sell 98.20 target 97.00 stop diatas 99.70, sell 99.70 target 98.00 stop 30p. buy 95.00 & 94.60 target 97.50 stop di 94.00.
(Closed buy 16200 at 1.6450; +250p). GBPUSD masih mempertahankan trend bullish karena mennjukkan pola daily candle dojis dan masih bertahan diatas 23.6% FR di 1.6210, meningkatkan potensi kenaikan selama beratan kembali di atas level tersebut. GBp masih berada di dalam pola broadening bullish dengan support line harus tetap terjaga untuk mempertahankan trend bullish di 1.6022. Tembusnya trendline resistance di 1.6564 dapat mendorong GBP ke target 1.6661/1.6814. Analisa EW menunjukkan proses wave b dalam untuk proses c dalamk koreksi intemediate 4. Buy 1.6220 target 1.6450 stop 100p, buy break 1.6570 target 1.6810 stop 100p. Sell break 1.6020 target 1.5810 stop 50p. Sell 1.6810 target 1.6660 stop 50p. Buy 1.5810 target 1.6450 stop 50p. Sell 1.6550 target 1.6300 stop 60p. Buy break 1.6430 target 1.6550.
(closed buy 0.7870 & 0.7960/0.7990 di 0.8050; +1180p+90p+60p). AUD-USD mulai mendapatkan signal positif dari tertahannya support line di 0.7855 didukung oleh stochastic yang crossing down dan pola candle morning star (potensi bullish reversal), untuk mencapai diatas 0.8190 (resistance line). Meski indikator ADX dan MACD terkoreksi turun menunjukkan potensi kenaikan terbatas. Elliot wave menunjukkan proses wave c dalam wave intermediate 3. Sell 0.8180 target 0.8100, Sell break 0.7800 target 0.7650 stop 60p. Buy 0.7870 target 0.8100 stop 60p, sell 0.8100 target 0.7800 stop 50p. Buy break 0.8200 target 0.8450.
80.61 89.62 (04/03) 78.59 (01/06) 1.3915 1.4337 (03/06) 1.2459 (04/03)
Dolar kembali melemah di sesi perdagangan Asia hari ini berkat spekulasi the Fed akan mempertahankan kebijakan Quantitative Easing di pertemuan FOMC 22-23 Juni, meredam spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga AS di bulan September. Sebelumnya dolar menguat terhadap mata uang utama dunia, didukung oleh kekuatan dolar dari perkiraan tingginya keuntungan dari instrumen aset yang berdenominasi dolar, termasuk melejitnya suku bunga Treasury sebagaimana kenaikan suku bunga LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rates. Data ekonomi AS juga menunjukkan resesi di AS mereda, mendorong kembali spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga. Indeks Leading Indicator, yang memberikan petunjuk untuk ekonomi dalam 3-6 bulan mendatang, naik 1.2% di bulan Mei. Phily Fed rebound ke -2.2, Jobless Claims benefit anjlok untuk pertama kali dalam 6 bulan terakhir sebesar 148,000 menjadi 6.687 juta di pekan 6 Juni. Minimnya data dari AS hari ini, akan mendorong investor untuk mencari petunjuk dari pergerakan saham AS yang terlihat volatile menjelang expire kontrak futures dan opsi saham.
Euro mengalami penguatan terhadap dolar AS berkat spekulasi pejabat bank sentral Eropa hari ini akan memberikan signal mereka akan mempertahankan suku bunga di tengah meredanya pelemahan ekonomi globa. Euro juga menguat berkat eningkatnya pemulihan ekonomi global setelah sejumlah data ekonomi AS baru-baru ini meningkatka daya tarik untuk memegang saham dan komoditi global, dan menurunkan daya tarik untuk dolar yang sebelumnya mendapatkan status safe haven. Anggota ECB Mario Draghi dan Lorenzo Bini Smaghi akan berbicara pada hari ini, dapat mendorong penguatan euro dolar lebih lanjut hari ini. Di tengah minimnya data ekonomi AS pasar akan mengamati pergerakan suku bunga Libor yang sepertinya akan meningkat, dapat membatasi permintaan untuk euro dolar hari ini.
USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
96.61 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.6334 1.6661 (03/06) 1.3502 (23/01)
Yen mengalami pelemahan terhadap dolar dan euro, berkat signal ekonomi globa mungkin rebound dari keterpurukan tertajam sejak 50 tahun etrakhir yang meningkatkan permintaan untuk aset yang beresiko. Yen melemah terhadap 15 dari 16 mata uang yang aktif diperdagangkan setelah data ekonomi AS (Leading Indicator, Jobless ClaIms, Phily Fed) dirilis lebih baik dari perkiraan pasar. Sementara imbas pelemahan rupiah terhadap dolar di sesi Asia hari ini yang terpuruk ke level terendah 6-pekan karena fund global menjual saham lokal, memberikan sentimen negatif kepada yen. Kemarin World bank merevisi naik pertumbuhan ekonomi China tahun ini, menjadi 7.2% di tahun 2009 dari tahun sebelumnya, naik dari 6.5% yang diprediksi bulan Maret lalu. Yen masih berpotensi mengalami penguatan mingguan terhadap dolar dan euro. Sementara potensi penguatan yen terbatas setelah British Banker Association mengatakan mereka mungkin akan membiarkan lebih banyak institusi untuk ambil bagian dalam survei harian yang diatur dala Libor ($senilai lebih dari $ 360 triliun).
Pound sterling menguat setelah sejumlah data dari AS meningkatkan keyakinan pemulihan ekonomi global yang mengangkat saham Wall Street dan Asia pada hari ini, sehingga menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang dolar AS yang sebelumnya menjadi safe haven. Meski potensi penguatan pound terbatas setelah data Retail Sales Inggris bulan Mei secara tidak terduga anjlok 0.6% ketimbang prediksi naik 0.3%, order ekspor manufaktur melemah menjadi -52 ke level terendah dalam 1 dekade di bulan Juni. Sementara pound menguat terhadap Swiss franc di tengah spekulasi bank sentral menjual mata uang Swiss franc untuk membatasi penguatan CHF. Sebelumnya pound mendapatkan sentimen negatif dari Gubernur BOE Mervyn King bahwa perkiraan reboundnya ekonomi Inggris mungkin terlalu dini, dimana membatasi potensi penguatan pound terhadap dolar. pasar hari ini akan mencari petunjuk dari pergerakan saham dan suku bunga Libor guna mengantisipasi penguatan pound lebih lanjut.
KIE 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
10400 12,150 (02/03) 9,900 (05/06) 0.8001 0.8263 (03/06) 0.6248 (02/02)
Kontrak Indeks Emas (USD-IDR) di sesi Asia hari ini mengalami penguatan lebih lanjut ke level tertinggi 10,400 (Reuters), setelah fund global melakukan aksi penjualan saham lokal yan sempat terpuruk ke level terendah 1,922 hari ini. Meski potensi pelemahan rupiah dibatasi oleh aksi intervensi oleh Bank Indonesia di kisaran Rp 10,400, guna menahan laju pelemahan rupiah yang volatile yang didukung oleh faktor teknikal yang short term bullish setelah gagal menembus support 9850 pada pekan lalu. Menurut Bloomberg News, fund global menjual $ 78 juta saham lokal dibandingkan yang mereka beli dalam 3 hari perdagangan di pekan ini, menurunkan net buy menjadi $ 530 juta di tahun ini. Obligasi pemerintah meemah berkat kekhawatiran tingginya harga minyak akan meningkatkan inflasi dan mungkin mendorong bank sentral (BI) untuk menaikkan suku bunga. Perkiraan pemerintah akan menjual $ 200 juta SUN pada pekan depan, dapat menahan laju penguatan KIE, dan dapat mendorong kembali inflow ke pasar saham, jika lelang SUN oversubscribed. Secara teknikal KIE masih berpotensi menguat, karena indikator ADX, stochastic meningkat, meski MACD masih berada di teritorial bearish, yang dapat membatasi potensi penguatan KIE di pekan depan. Strong resistance berada di 10,675, support di 10,260. Perkiraan range hingga Senin 10300-10600.
Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) mengalami penguatan terhadap dolar dan yen, mengikis penurunan pertama mingguan sejak Mei, karena kenaikan indeks saham Asia dan indeks saham futures AS meningkatkan permintaan untuk aset yang memiliki yield yang lebih tinggi. aussie dan kiwi juga menguat berkat perbedaan suku bunga yang meningkatkan daya tarik untuk memegang aussie dan kiwi saat ini. Aussie dan kiwi memiliki korelasi 80% terhadap Standard & Poors 500 dan mengikuti Nikkei Average sebesar 90%.
Technical Analysis
EUR-USD menunjukkan pola descending triangle di chart daily, candle dark clioud cover dengan indikator MACD bullish, Stochastic & ADX terkoreksi turun, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan peluang kenaikan terbatas. Pola H&S dengan neckline di 1.3797, dapat picu penurunan lebih lanjut. Hitungan Elliot wave euro dolar dalam zig zag wave c dalam sub wave intermediate 4. Support di 1.3824 (35-day MA)/1.3794 (neckline H&S). Resistance di 1.4004 (resistance line)/1.4118 (23.6 FR)). Buy break 1.4010 target di 1.4120 stop 60p, sell break 1.3780 target 1.3400 stop 50p, buy 1.3820 target 1.4000 stop 50p. sell 1.4120 target 1.3800 stop 60p. buy break 1.4140 target 1.4330.
(+130p & Hold 96.15 target 97.50 stop 95.60). USDJPY menunjukkan signal positif dari tertahannya support line di 95.65 dan pola candle meeting lines untuk mempertahankan trend netral jangka pendek, jika ditutup dibawah level tersebut target 95.01, diikuti indikator ADX dan stochastic terkoreksi turun MACD netral, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas hari ini. Support berada di 95.80 (support line). Trend masih bearish karena ditutup dibawah 96.69 (10 MA)/96.38 (200 MA). Resistance berada di 97.70/98.41. Buy break 98.45 target 99.80 stop 60p, sell 98.20 target 97.00 stop diatas 99.70, sell 99.70 target 98.00 stop 30p. buy 95.00 & 94.60 target 97.50 stop di 94.00.
(Closed buy 16200 at 1.6450; +250p). GBPUSD masih mempertahankan trend bullish karena mennjukkan pola daily candle dojis dan masih bertahan diatas 23.6% FR di 1.6210, meningkatkan potensi kenaikan selama beratan kembali di atas level tersebut. GBp masih berada di dalam pola broadening bullish dengan support line harus tetap terjaga untuk mempertahankan trend bullish di 1.6022. Tembusnya trendline resistance di 1.6564 dapat mendorong GBP ke target 1.6661/1.6814. Analisa EW menunjukkan proses wave b dalam untuk proses c dalamk koreksi intemediate 4. Buy 1.6220 target 1.6450 stop 100p, buy break 1.6570 target 1.6810 stop 100p. Sell break 1.6020 target 1.5810 stop 50p. Sell 1.6810 target 1.6660 stop 50p. Buy 1.5810 target 1.6450 stop 50p. Sell 1.6550 target 1.6300 stop 60p. Buy break 1.6430 target 1.6550.
(closed buy 0.7870 & 0.7960/0.7990 di 0.8050; +1180p+90p+60p). AUD-USD mulai mendapatkan signal positif dari tertahannya support line di 0.7855 didukung oleh stochastic yang crossing down dan pola candle morning star (potensi bullish reversal), untuk mencapai diatas 0.8190 (resistance line). Meski indikator ADX dan MACD terkoreksi turun menunjukkan potensi kenaikan terbatas. Elliot wave menunjukkan proses wave c dalam wave intermediate 3. Sell 0.8180 target 0.8100, Sell break 0.7800 target 0.7650 stop 60p. Buy 0.7870 target 0.8100 stop 60p, sell 0.8100 target 0.7800 stop 50p. Buy break 0.8200 target 0.8450.
Elliot Wave: Eur/Usd At Resistance, Oil; $73 or $69 Breakout?
Eur/Usd At Resistance
2 Hour Chart trend. Short possibilities. Main price points: 1.3747, 1.4000 and 1.4177. Looking for: Bounce of a trend-line
Eur/Usd made a pullb-ack in the past few sessions, very close to our blue trend-line discussed on Wednesday. We can see that the market is trading on top of a three wave move, in a blue wave ii; traders with a short bias should be watching for a near-term turning point around the 1.4000 area. In this case we will be looking for lower wave iii targets, especially if the 1.3747 lows can be out, while we are below 1.4177 resistance. If the prices do break the 1.4177 highs at any time, then we will be looking for a bullish wave count with a new upside targets, as the A), B), C) correction would then be in place (from wave B highs to 1.3747 lows).
Oil; $73 or $69 Breakout?
4 Hour Chart trend: Short possibilities. Main price points: 66.78, 69.55 and 73.15. Looking for: Break through 69.55
Oil made a failed break-out at 69.55 on Wednesday, as the market pushed the prices only to the 69 area, before a turning point appeared. Now we need to be very careful with the wave count as prices may continue much higher, if the 73.15 resistance gets broken in a near-term. This would invalidate our wave count, and in this case we will be targeting the 75 area, or even higher. However, the market may still be trading in irregular wave ii/b leg as long 73.15 holds. Any break of the 69 area will probably lead us into the 66.78 zone.
2 Hour Chart trend. Short possibilities. Main price points: 1.3747, 1.4000 and 1.4177. Looking for: Bounce of a trend-line
Eur/Usd made a pullb-ack in the past few sessions, very close to our blue trend-line discussed on Wednesday. We can see that the market is trading on top of a three wave move, in a blue wave ii; traders with a short bias should be watching for a near-term turning point around the 1.4000 area. In this case we will be looking for lower wave iii targets, especially if the 1.3747 lows can be out, while we are below 1.4177 resistance. If the prices do break the 1.4177 highs at any time, then we will be looking for a bullish wave count with a new upside targets, as the A), B), C) correction would then be in place (from wave B highs to 1.3747 lows).
Oil; $73 or $69 Breakout?
4 Hour Chart trend: Short possibilities. Main price points: 66.78, 69.55 and 73.15. Looking for: Break through 69.55
Oil made a failed break-out at 69.55 on Wednesday, as the market pushed the prices only to the 69 area, before a turning point appeared. Now we need to be very careful with the wave count as prices may continue much higher, if the 73.15 resistance gets broken in a near-term. This would invalidate our wave count, and in this case we will be targeting the 75 area, or even higher. However, the market may still be trading in irregular wave ii/b leg as long 73.15 holds. Any break of the 69 area will probably lead us into the 66.78 zone.
Daily Technical Analysis Forex/DJIA/Gold
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.3871, 1.3837 and 1.3792(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3767, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3719. Break of the latter would result in 1.3680. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3663. Continuation will give 1.3635.Today's resistance: - 1.3997 and 1.4036(main). Break would give 1.4079, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.4126. Break of the latter would result in 1.4153. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.4176. Continuation will give 1.4220.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 96.30, 95.82, 95.41 and 95.28(main). Break would bring 95.17, where correction is possible. Then 94.94, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 94.61. If a strong impulse, we would see 94.39. Continuation would give 94.13. Today's resistance: - 97.31 and 97.76(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 98.10, where also a correction may be. Then 98.33. If a strong impulse, we would see 98.58. Continuation will give 98.78 and 99.26.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 8490.93(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8479.68, where correction also can be. Then follows 8463.00. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8426.22. Continuation will bring 8392.44.
Today's resistance: - 8562.30, 8606.26, 8645.40 and 8686.42(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8732.80, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8775.00, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8814.63. Continuation would bring 8834.25 and 8842.00.
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
Rupee : Rupee met our target of 48.32 as expected. It has lot of resistances post 48.32 levels still the bias does not change since we are expecting dollar strength in overseas markets. Stay cautious since the move above 48 could extend till 48.60-72 levels. Look at covering import payments at 48.05(USD/INR : 48.10). Short term bearish & Medium Term Bullish
Euro: Euro plunged around 1.38 levels (1.38 is an important support and the neckline of the amazing head and shoulder pattern) but bounced back taking resistance at 1.4000 levels and again dipped down to sub 1.39 levels in the closing of US session . It is still maintaining a range bound move with the downward bias and breaking of 1.38 on a closing basis would push the pair to 1.3450. Daily trendlines have been consistently broken. ONLY and ONLY if it manages to maintain 1.4040 then we might have to reconsider the downtrend. (Eur/Usd:1.3917). Bearish
Sterling :Cable made a kind of double top formation at 1.66 levels and still moving in quite a volatile fashion in last 3-4 days showing both sides movement.of 250 pips . It took support at 1.6200 levels thrice and gave a gigantic move in the late US Session. (21 day daily moving avg support).Incase it breaks 1.6175 which looks quite probable it may head quite deep down towards 1.58 and 1.55 below again. Stay cautious incase 1.6440 breaks and holds.(Gbp/Usd: 1.6352). Short term Bearish to Neutral
Yen :Yen pair is trading sideways confined between the cluster support of 94 levels and resistance of 99.55. We should not initiate positions until this wide range breaks on either side. (USD/JPY : 96.52) Range-bound
Australian Dollar :Aussie is also correcting due to fall in commodity prices across. Only and Only if the pair stays below .7650 we could say the bearish trend has started for AUD. (Aud/Usd: 0.8024). Short term neutral
Gold :Gold is clearly bearish since its holding below its daily trend at $960. We can look at accumulating short positions at $ 935 till $957 for targets below $900. Gold- $933.90). Bearish
Dollar Index : DX bounced back from 79 levels (as expected) and is currently trading above 80-mark. The chart is turning bullish since the downtrend line has been broken and market is holding above 80 levels. Till we see the levels above 80 the index holds bullish. (DI- 80.96) Neutral
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank
EURUSD
Commet: Nothing to add as we hover above the 'neckline' of a potential 'head-and-shoulders', between the moving averages. We remind that there is a high probability of this formation not going to plan as further out we see it as a process of trying to form a new interim low, probably somewhere between 1.3800 and 1.3600. Watch AUD, GBP, and NZD which are closer to a potential upside break. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.3935; stop well below 1.3740. Short term target 1.4050 Direction of Trade: → Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.3882 " 1.396
1.3872 1.3986
1.38 1.4002
1.3748 1.4050*
1.3600* 1.4178
GBPUSD
Comment: Incredible how neatly Cable is holding above the 9-day moving average, increasing the likelihood of a re-test of this month's high at 1.6664 even as early as the end of this week. Several other major currencies are behaving in a similar way lending support to our view that we are currently in the process of trying to form a new interim low setting up for more generalised US dollar weakness in Q3. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6345; stop well below 1.6200. First target 1.6500, then 1.6600 and more long term.Direction of Trade: →Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.6300 " 1.6469
1.6210* 1.6507
1.6187 1.66
1.6 1.6622
1.594 1.6664*
USDJPY
Comment: Little to add as we hover around 95.65 as expected. Allow for more of the same today, where only a weekly close below 94.00 will add to downside pressure, something that is unlikely today. Strategy: Possibly attempt small shorts at 96.65/97.00; stop above 97.65. First target 95.65/95.50, re-selling on a sustained break below here for 94.00.Direction of Trade: →Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
96.38 " 96.78
96 97.05
95.51* 97.27
95 97.50*
94.44 97.88
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.3871, 1.3837 and 1.3792(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3767, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3719. Break of the latter would result in 1.3680. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3663. Continuation will give 1.3635.Today's resistance: - 1.3997 and 1.4036(main). Break would give 1.4079, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.4126. Break of the latter would result in 1.4153. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.4176. Continuation will give 1.4220.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 96.30, 95.82, 95.41 and 95.28(main). Break would bring 95.17, where correction is possible. Then 94.94, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 94.61. If a strong impulse, we would see 94.39. Continuation would give 94.13. Today's resistance: - 97.31 and 97.76(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 98.10, where also a correction may be. Then 98.33. If a strong impulse, we would see 98.58. Continuation will give 98.78 and 99.26.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 8490.93(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8479.68, where correction also can be. Then follows 8463.00. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8426.22. Continuation will bring 8392.44.
Today's resistance: - 8562.30, 8606.26, 8645.40 and 8686.42(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8732.80, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8775.00, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8814.63. Continuation would bring 8834.25 and 8842.00.
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
Rupee : Rupee met our target of 48.32 as expected. It has lot of resistances post 48.32 levels still the bias does not change since we are expecting dollar strength in overseas markets. Stay cautious since the move above 48 could extend till 48.60-72 levels. Look at covering import payments at 48.05(USD/INR : 48.10). Short term bearish & Medium Term Bullish
Euro: Euro plunged around 1.38 levels (1.38 is an important support and the neckline of the amazing head and shoulder pattern) but bounced back taking resistance at 1.4000 levels and again dipped down to sub 1.39 levels in the closing of US session . It is still maintaining a range bound move with the downward bias and breaking of 1.38 on a closing basis would push the pair to 1.3450. Daily trendlines have been consistently broken. ONLY and ONLY if it manages to maintain 1.4040 then we might have to reconsider the downtrend. (Eur/Usd:1.3917). Bearish
Sterling :Cable made a kind of double top formation at 1.66 levels and still moving in quite a volatile fashion in last 3-4 days showing both sides movement.of 250 pips . It took support at 1.6200 levels thrice and gave a gigantic move in the late US Session. (21 day daily moving avg support).Incase it breaks 1.6175 which looks quite probable it may head quite deep down towards 1.58 and 1.55 below again. Stay cautious incase 1.6440 breaks and holds.(Gbp/Usd: 1.6352). Short term Bearish to Neutral
Yen :Yen pair is trading sideways confined between the cluster support of 94 levels and resistance of 99.55. We should not initiate positions until this wide range breaks on either side. (USD/JPY : 96.52) Range-bound
Australian Dollar :Aussie is also correcting due to fall in commodity prices across. Only and Only if the pair stays below .7650 we could say the bearish trend has started for AUD. (Aud/Usd: 0.8024). Short term neutral
Gold :Gold is clearly bearish since its holding below its daily trend at $960. We can look at accumulating short positions at $ 935 till $957 for targets below $900. Gold- $933.90). Bearish
Dollar Index : DX bounced back from 79 levels (as expected) and is currently trading above 80-mark. The chart is turning bullish since the downtrend line has been broken and market is holding above 80 levels. Till we see the levels above 80 the index holds bullish. (DI- 80.96) Neutral
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank
EURUSD
Commet: Nothing to add as we hover above the 'neckline' of a potential 'head-and-shoulders', between the moving averages. We remind that there is a high probability of this formation not going to plan as further out we see it as a process of trying to form a new interim low, probably somewhere between 1.3800 and 1.3600. Watch AUD, GBP, and NZD which are closer to a potential upside break. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.3935; stop well below 1.3740. Short term target 1.4050 Direction of Trade: → Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.3882 " 1.396
1.3872 1.3986
1.38 1.4002
1.3748 1.4050*
1.3600* 1.4178
GBPUSD
Comment: Incredible how neatly Cable is holding above the 9-day moving average, increasing the likelihood of a re-test of this month's high at 1.6664 even as early as the end of this week. Several other major currencies are behaving in a similar way lending support to our view that we are currently in the process of trying to form a new interim low setting up for more generalised US dollar weakness in Q3. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6345; stop well below 1.6200. First target 1.6500, then 1.6600 and more long term.Direction of Trade: →Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.6300 " 1.6469
1.6210* 1.6507
1.6187 1.66
1.6 1.6622
1.594 1.6664*
USDJPY
Comment: Little to add as we hover around 95.65 as expected. Allow for more of the same today, where only a weekly close below 94.00 will add to downside pressure, something that is unlikely today. Strategy: Possibly attempt small shorts at 96.65/97.00; stop above 97.65. First target 95.65/95.50, re-selling on a sustained break below here for 94.00.Direction of Trade: →Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
96.38 " 96.78
96 97.05
95.51* 97.27
95 97.50*
94.44 97.88
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Trend Bullish IHSG Terancam Jika Level Support 1,940 Tembus
Market Review
Aksi force sell dan panik penjualan saham di sektor komoditi (pertambangan dan perkebunan), aneka industri dan perbankan mendorong kejatuhan IHSG ke level terendah 1 Juni 2009 kemarin. Efek dari sejumlah saham yang mendapatkan dividen (ex-date) seperti ASII, ANTM, INDY dan penurunan harga komoditi logam (nikel US$ 14,650 dan CPO -77 Myr; Myr 2,325) dan ketidakpastian mengenai reaksi PT Bumi Resources terhadap hasil Mappi, ikut menekan IHSG lebih dalam ke level terendah 1,940.324. Faktor teknikal IHSG yang breakout support (former low 1,989), terpuruknya indeks regional Asia dan pelemahan rupiah mendorong outflow dari IHSG, ikut membantu penurunan IHSG. Indeks anjlok 73.978 poin (-3.65%), ditutup di 1,950,987, nilai transaksi BEI tercatat Rp 4.248 triliun. Net selling investor asing sebesar Rp 328.576 miliar, naik dibanding net sell Rp 99.384 miliar (17/06).
Mayotitas indeks saham di Asia-Pasifik terpuruk ke level terendah 3-pekan, karena kekhawatiran mengenai kesehatan ekonomi AS yang meredam pandangan untuk pendapatan eskpor. Indeks MSCI Asia Pasifik yang telah meningkat 43% dari level terendah 5-tahun pada 9 Maret lalu telah meningkatkan valuasi indeks ke level tertinggi sejak September, mendorong aksi penjualan saham Asia.
IHSG Outlook
Trend bullish jangka pendek IHSG terancam berubah, jika IHSG ditutup harian di bawah 1,936 dan faktor sentimen negatif dari kondisi ekonomi global menunjukkan keraguan mengenai pemulihan ekonomi global, dimana dapat memicu krisis Babak II, jika masalah pengangguran dan krisis perbankan di AS (unemployment ke target 10-11%, S&P turunkan rating kredit 22 bank AS) dan Eropa (defisit anggaran & writeoff bank) tidak dapat teratasi. Sementara dari dalam negeri, investor asing mendorong capital outflow dari pasar saham (net sell investor asing sekitar Rp 1.5 triliun per 15-18 Juni) dan obligasi (kepemilikan asing merosot Rp 2.12 triliun di SUN per 14 Juni) karena dampak pelemahan rupiah (Rp 10,270/$) di tengah kenaikan harga minyak berpotensi membebani defisit anggaran RI (subsidi BBM) merupakan isu negatif untuk IHSG. Potensi technical rebound di indeks regional Asia dan menjelang pertemuan the Fed pekan depan, seharusnya dapat menopang trend bullish IHSG.
Top Pick: Hold BUMI/BNBR/ENRG/DEWA & MNCN/BMTR, ASII, TLKM, INKP ,HEXA, BBRI, BMRI, ANTM, INCO.Buy SGRO, BMRI
Sector Trend:
Stock Picks:
* MNCN
* TRUB
Global Outlook
Indeks saham AS dan regional mendapatkan signal positif dari potensi technical rebound di dekat strong support kemarin dan data ekonomi AS yang lebih baik dari perkiraan ekonom (Leading Indicator +1.3%, Jobless Claims +8K; 608K, Phily Fed -2.2) memberikan harapan untuk pemulihan ekonomi AS di tahun ini dan memberikan bukti resesi AS mulai mereda. Sementara berakhirnya kontrak berjangka dan opsi saham bulan Juli di bursa AS (CBOE & CBOT) hari ini dapat mendorong technical rebound dan short squezze indeks saham regional Asia dan AS, terutama menjelang pertemuan bank sentral AS pekan depan, diperkirakan tetap mempertahankan kebijakan Quantative Easing di pekan depan dan trend bullish harga minyak (target $ 76.7; 38.2% Fibonacci retracement $142-33) seharusnya masih dapat menopang kinerja “BULL MARKET” regional hingga pekan depan.
Technical Analysis:
Trend bullish IHSG terancam berubah setelah indeks menembus former support di 1,989, diikuti pola falling wedge dan mendekati uptrend support di 1,940 (low 18/06) bilamana ditutup harian & mingguan di bawah 1,940, dapat mengarahkan IHSG ke target 1,850/1,688, terutama melihat kondisi chart candle weekly (potensi evening star) dan monthly (shooting star), menggagalkan skenario BULL MARKET di bulan Juni-Juli untuk EXIT dari pasar. Potensi kenaikan terbatas hingga pekan depan jika IHSG gagal ditutup harian diatas 1,982 (50.0% FR). Hitungan Elliot Wave: indeks berada di akhir wave a untuk ke arah wave b dalam proses wave koreksi 4 minor subwave intermediate 4 / (B), selama level 1,940 terjaga, target di 2,165 (61.8 % Fibonacci retracement 1089-2835).
Resistance: 2056.95/2030.46/2003.97/1988.06. PP 1972.15
Support : 1919.17/1887.35/1844.95/1802.55
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 1,900 -2,000)
The News is Next
UBI Newsletter Vol 229 (Code TF)
Aksi force sell dan panik penjualan saham di sektor komoditi (pertambangan dan perkebunan), aneka industri dan perbankan mendorong kejatuhan IHSG ke level terendah 1 Juni 2009 kemarin. Efek dari sejumlah saham yang mendapatkan dividen (ex-date) seperti ASII, ANTM, INDY dan penurunan harga komoditi logam (nikel US$ 14,650 dan CPO -77 Myr; Myr 2,325) dan ketidakpastian mengenai reaksi PT Bumi Resources terhadap hasil Mappi, ikut menekan IHSG lebih dalam ke level terendah 1,940.324. Faktor teknikal IHSG yang breakout support (former low 1,989), terpuruknya indeks regional Asia dan pelemahan rupiah mendorong outflow dari IHSG, ikut membantu penurunan IHSG. Indeks anjlok 73.978 poin (-3.65%), ditutup di 1,950,987, nilai transaksi BEI tercatat Rp 4.248 triliun. Net selling investor asing sebesar Rp 328.576 miliar, naik dibanding net sell Rp 99.384 miliar (17/06).
Mayotitas indeks saham di Asia-Pasifik terpuruk ke level terendah 3-pekan, karena kekhawatiran mengenai kesehatan ekonomi AS yang meredam pandangan untuk pendapatan eskpor. Indeks MSCI Asia Pasifik yang telah meningkat 43% dari level terendah 5-tahun pada 9 Maret lalu telah meningkatkan valuasi indeks ke level tertinggi sejak September, mendorong aksi penjualan saham Asia.
IHSG Outlook
Trend bullish jangka pendek IHSG terancam berubah, jika IHSG ditutup harian di bawah 1,936 dan faktor sentimen negatif dari kondisi ekonomi global menunjukkan keraguan mengenai pemulihan ekonomi global, dimana dapat memicu krisis Babak II, jika masalah pengangguran dan krisis perbankan di AS (unemployment ke target 10-11%, S&P turunkan rating kredit 22 bank AS) dan Eropa (defisit anggaran & writeoff bank) tidak dapat teratasi. Sementara dari dalam negeri, investor asing mendorong capital outflow dari pasar saham (net sell investor asing sekitar Rp 1.5 triliun per 15-18 Juni) dan obligasi (kepemilikan asing merosot Rp 2.12 triliun di SUN per 14 Juni) karena dampak pelemahan rupiah (Rp 10,270/$) di tengah kenaikan harga minyak berpotensi membebani defisit anggaran RI (subsidi BBM) merupakan isu negatif untuk IHSG. Potensi technical rebound di indeks regional Asia dan menjelang pertemuan the Fed pekan depan, seharusnya dapat menopang trend bullish IHSG.
Top Pick: Hold BUMI/BNBR/ENRG/DEWA & MNCN/BMTR, ASII, TLKM, INKP ,HEXA, BBRI, BMRI, ANTM, INCO.Buy SGRO, BMRI
Sector Trend:
Stock Picks:
* MNCN
* TRUB
Global Outlook
Indeks saham AS dan regional mendapatkan signal positif dari potensi technical rebound di dekat strong support kemarin dan data ekonomi AS yang lebih baik dari perkiraan ekonom (Leading Indicator +1.3%, Jobless Claims +8K; 608K, Phily Fed -2.2) memberikan harapan untuk pemulihan ekonomi AS di tahun ini dan memberikan bukti resesi AS mulai mereda. Sementara berakhirnya kontrak berjangka dan opsi saham bulan Juli di bursa AS (CBOE & CBOT) hari ini dapat mendorong technical rebound dan short squezze indeks saham regional Asia dan AS, terutama menjelang pertemuan bank sentral AS pekan depan, diperkirakan tetap mempertahankan kebijakan Quantative Easing di pekan depan dan trend bullish harga minyak (target $ 76.7; 38.2% Fibonacci retracement $142-33) seharusnya masih dapat menopang kinerja “BULL MARKET” regional hingga pekan depan.
Technical Analysis:
Trend bullish IHSG terancam berubah setelah indeks menembus former support di 1,989, diikuti pola falling wedge dan mendekati uptrend support di 1,940 (low 18/06) bilamana ditutup harian & mingguan di bawah 1,940, dapat mengarahkan IHSG ke target 1,850/1,688, terutama melihat kondisi chart candle weekly (potensi evening star) dan monthly (shooting star), menggagalkan skenario BULL MARKET di bulan Juni-Juli untuk EXIT dari pasar. Potensi kenaikan terbatas hingga pekan depan jika IHSG gagal ditutup harian diatas 1,982 (50.0% FR). Hitungan Elliot Wave: indeks berada di akhir wave a untuk ke arah wave b dalam proses wave koreksi 4 minor subwave intermediate 4 / (B), selama level 1,940 terjaga, target di 2,165 (61.8 % Fibonacci retracement 1089-2835).
Resistance: 2056.95/2030.46/2003.97/1988.06. PP 1972.15
Support : 1919.17/1887.35/1844.95/1802.55
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 1,900 -2,000)
The News is Next
UBI Newsletter Vol 229 (Code TF)
Indeks Asia: Technical Short Term Oversold Akan Picu Rebound
SSIU9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
9670 9610 9845 9510 10000 9885 10100 9395 9520 9595 9795 9920 9995
Commentary
Di chart 4 jam, trend bullish jangka pendek indeks SSIU9 terancam berbalik arah, setelah indeks ditutup dibawah trendline support di 9,675, dimana dapat mengarahkan indeks ke support berikutnya di 9800 (trendline resistance), selama gagal ditutup diatas 9948 hari ini. Indikator teknikal ADX menunjukkan koreksi penurunan, stochastic oversold dan MACD terkoreksi turun meski masih berada dalam teritorial netral, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi penurunan indeks terbatas dalam 1-2 hari ini. Daily candle menunjukkan doji star (high realibility bearish reversal) membebani kinerja trend bullish indeks. Perkiraan range hari ini pada kisaran 9550-9600.
Rekomendasi : Buy 9660 target 9950 stop 100p, buy break 9990 target 10100 stop 100p, Sell 10100 target 9,800 stop 50p. Buy 9500 target 9800 stop 100p.
KSU9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
177.05 175.0 178.1 174.0 179.7 176.5 180.7 174.3 175.3 176.1 177.9 178.9 179.7
Commentary
Dalam chart 4-jam, indeks KSU9 kembali berbalik trendnya dari bullish menjadi netral meski indeks gagal ditutup diatas trendline support 176.20. Indikator teknikal MACD dan stochastic yang crossing down, meski ADX terlihat meningkat, menunjukkan potensi penurunan masih kuat hari ini. Indeks masih berada dalam pola symestrical triangle dengan resistance line berada di 182.20 (upper channel) dapat membatasi momentum kenaikan indeks dimana trend jangka menengah bullish, bilamana break target 184.10 (projeksi 100.0 FE). Tetapi jika indeks ditutup dibawah support line di 176.20, trend akan berbalik bearish, target 170.19. Perkiraan range hari ini: 173.00-178.0
Rekomendasi : Buy 173.90 taret 181.00 stop 100p, buy break 176.40 target 178.00. Buy break 180.34 target 182.50. Sell break 173.00 target 167.50 stop 100p.
HSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
17870 17735 18125 17635 18203 17891 18303 17240 17497 17683 18126 18383 18569
Commentary
Dalam chart 4 jam, trend bullish jangka pendek indeks telah berbalik menjadi bearish, jika indeks hari ini ditutup dibawah 17,607(support line) untuk target 17201/16901 (projection 161.8 FE), selama gagal ditutup diatas 18584 (resistance line). Indikator teknikal Adx menunjukkan flat, stochastic crossing down, meski MACD masih berada di teritorial bullish, menunjukkan potensi penurunan terbatas hari ini. Daily candle menunjukkan bearish continuation, selama 17607 tidak tembus, potensi naik masih terbuka. Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks masih berada dalam wave motive (4) yang diperkirakan berakhir di 19,100 (wave 5???) dalam wave intermediate 3 - sub cycle B. Perkiraan range hari ini : 17.500-18.100
Rekomendasi : Buy 17,610 target 18100 (or closing) stop 100 p. buy break 18200 target 18.550 stop 100 poin. Sell 18550 target 18250 stop 100p. buy 17250 target 17750 stop 100p. Buy break 17810 target 18100 stop 100p.
9670 9610 9845 9510 10000 9885 10100 9395 9520 9595 9795 9920 9995
Commentary
Di chart 4 jam, trend bullish jangka pendek indeks SSIU9 terancam berbalik arah, setelah indeks ditutup dibawah trendline support di 9,675, dimana dapat mengarahkan indeks ke support berikutnya di 9800 (trendline resistance), selama gagal ditutup diatas 9948 hari ini. Indikator teknikal ADX menunjukkan koreksi penurunan, stochastic oversold dan MACD terkoreksi turun meski masih berada dalam teritorial netral, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi penurunan indeks terbatas dalam 1-2 hari ini. Daily candle menunjukkan doji star (high realibility bearish reversal) membebani kinerja trend bullish indeks. Perkiraan range hari ini pada kisaran 9550-9600.
Rekomendasi : Buy 9660 target 9950 stop 100p, buy break 9990 target 10100 stop 100p, Sell 10100 target 9,800 stop 50p. Buy 9500 target 9800 stop 100p.
KSU9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
177.05 175.0 178.1 174.0 179.7 176.5 180.7 174.3 175.3 176.1 177.9 178.9 179.7
Commentary
Dalam chart 4-jam, indeks KSU9 kembali berbalik trendnya dari bullish menjadi netral meski indeks gagal ditutup diatas trendline support 176.20. Indikator teknikal MACD dan stochastic yang crossing down, meski ADX terlihat meningkat, menunjukkan potensi penurunan masih kuat hari ini. Indeks masih berada dalam pola symestrical triangle dengan resistance line berada di 182.20 (upper channel) dapat membatasi momentum kenaikan indeks dimana trend jangka menengah bullish, bilamana break target 184.10 (projeksi 100.0 FE). Tetapi jika indeks ditutup dibawah support line di 176.20, trend akan berbalik bearish, target 170.19. Perkiraan range hari ini: 173.00-178.0
Rekomendasi : Buy 173.90 taret 181.00 stop 100p, buy break 176.40 target 178.00. Buy break 180.34 target 182.50. Sell break 173.00 target 167.50 stop 100p.
HSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
17870 17735 18125 17635 18203 17891 18303 17240 17497 17683 18126 18383 18569
Commentary
Dalam chart 4 jam, trend bullish jangka pendek indeks telah berbalik menjadi bearish, jika indeks hari ini ditutup dibawah 17,607(support line) untuk target 17201/16901 (projection 161.8 FE), selama gagal ditutup diatas 18584 (resistance line). Indikator teknikal Adx menunjukkan flat, stochastic crossing down, meski MACD masih berada di teritorial bullish, menunjukkan potensi penurunan terbatas hari ini. Daily candle menunjukkan bearish continuation, selama 17607 tidak tembus, potensi naik masih terbuka. Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks masih berada dalam wave motive (4) yang diperkirakan berakhir di 19,100 (wave 5???) dalam wave intermediate 3 - sub cycle B. Perkiraan range hari ini : 17.500-18.100
Rekomendasi : Buy 17,610 target 18100 (or closing) stop 100 p. buy break 18200 target 18.550 stop 100 poin. Sell 18550 target 18250 stop 100p. buy 17250 target 17750 stop 100p. Buy break 17810 target 18100 stop 100p.
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Jun 18 09 07:07 ET
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold recovers mildly after dipping to 926.5. With 4 hours MACD staying above signal line, an intraday low should be in place and outlook is turned neutral for the moment. Nevertheless, break of 962.4 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 992.1 has completed. Otherwise, risk remains on the downside. Break of 915.2 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 865.6 to 922.1 at 913.9) will confirm that whole rise from 865 has completed and should then bring retest of this low. On the upside, though, above 962.4 resistance will indicate that fall from 992.1 has completed and will turn short term outlook bullish for 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone again.
In the bigger picture, recent development argues that rise from 865 has possibly completed at 992.1 already, ahead of 1007.7/1033.9 key resistance zone. Also it suggests that consolidation from 1007.7 is still in progress and break of 915.2 support will bring the third leg down to test 865 support before completing the whole consolidation. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) and bring resumption of rise from 681. On the upside, though, above 992.1 will revive the case that rise from 865 is resumption of up trend rather than part of sideway consolidation. In such case, retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance should be seen next.
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold recovers mildly after dipping to 926.5. With 4 hours MACD staying above signal line, an intraday low should be in place and outlook is turned neutral for the moment. Nevertheless, break of 962.4 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 992.1 has completed. Otherwise, risk remains on the downside. Break of 915.2 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 865.6 to 922.1 at 913.9) will confirm that whole rise from 865 has completed and should then bring retest of this low. On the upside, though, above 962.4 resistance will indicate that fall from 992.1 has completed and will turn short term outlook bullish for 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone again.
In the bigger picture, recent development argues that rise from 865 has possibly completed at 992.1 already, ahead of 1007.7/1033.9 key resistance zone. Also it suggests that consolidation from 1007.7 is still in progress and break of 915.2 support will bring the third leg down to test 865 support before completing the whole consolidation. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) and bring resumption of rise from 681. On the upside, though, above 992.1 will revive the case that rise from 865 is resumption of up trend rather than part of sideway consolidation. In such case, retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance should be seen next.
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Jun 18 09 07:06 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's consolidation from 73.23 is still in progress. Intraday outlook remains neutral at this point and some more consolidation might be seen. But note that there is no sign of reversal as long as 66.79 support holds. That is, recent rally is still in progress. Above 73.23 will bring rally resumption to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next. On the downside, however, bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Break of 66.79 support will argue that a short term top is at least formed and rise from 43.83 has likely completed. In such case, deeper decline should be seen to 56.07/60.08 support zone.
In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of topping in crude oil yet and current rally might extend further to above 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. But after all, crude oil is clearly overbought in daily RSI and some consolidations should be around the corner. Strong resistance will likely be seen between 76.77 fibo resistance and next key level of 90, (50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.23) and at least bring some pull back.
Meanwhile, in case of a correction, focus will turn 54.66 key medium term resistance turned support. As long as it holds, we'd continue to favor the rally from 33.20 to continue further. But a break of 54.66 will be an important indication that whole rise from 33.2 low has completed and should turn outlook bearish then.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's consolidation from 73.23 is still in progress. Intraday outlook remains neutral at this point and some more consolidation might be seen. But note that there is no sign of reversal as long as 66.79 support holds. That is, recent rally is still in progress. Above 73.23 will bring rally resumption to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next. On the downside, however, bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Break of 66.79 support will argue that a short term top is at least formed and rise from 43.83 has likely completed. In such case, deeper decline should be seen to 56.07/60.08 support zone.
In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of topping in crude oil yet and current rally might extend further to above 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. But after all, crude oil is clearly overbought in daily RSI and some consolidations should be around the corner. Strong resistance will likely be seen between 76.77 fibo resistance and next key level of 90, (50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.23) and at least bring some pull back.
Meanwhile, in case of a correction, focus will turn 54.66 key medium term resistance turned support. As long as it holds, we'd continue to favor the rally from 33.20 to continue further. But a break of 54.66 will be an important indication that whole rise from 33.2 low has completed and should turn outlook bearish then.
NEoWave Warns Stock Market Has Peaked for 2009
NEoWave Institute's Glenn Neely is forecasting the largest vertical drop of the decade for the S&P 500. Neely predicts the stock market will decline 50% in the next 6 months. Technically speaking, according to NEoWave a correction began at last October's low; the March-June rally is the final leg of that correction
The March-June rally is now ending, allowing the bear market to resume. During the next six months, the S&P will decline 50% or more, breaking well below 500!
Aliso Viejo, CA (PRWEB) June 16, 2009 -- Glenn Neely, founder of NEoWave Institute and prominent Elliott Wave analyst, today announces a startling prediction: The S&P 500 is forming a major top in June, which will be followed by a large decline, eventually pushing the stock market to record lows for the decade. "Technically speaking, according to NEoWave a correction began at last October's low; the March-June rally is the final leg of that correction," Neely explains. "The March-June rally is now ending, allowing the bear market to resume. During the next six months, the S&P will decline 50% or more, breaking well below 500!" Currently, the S&P is hovering around 917.Glenn Neely is providing this information not as a specific trade recommendation but as a general public service announcement. A prominent Elliott Wave analyst, Neely was recently recognized in Timer Digest's May issue as the #1 stock market timer for the past 12 months.For those who want detailed trading strategies and insight, Neely provides specific recommendations to subscribers of the NEoWave Trading Service.
About Glenn Neely and NEoWave Institute:
Glenn Neely, who is internationally regarded as the premier Elliott Wave analyst, founded the Elliott Wave Institute in 1983. In 1990, Neely published his advanced Wave analysis process in his now-classic book, Mastering Elliott Wave. In 2000, Neely changed the name of his research and advisory firm to NEoWave Institute to differentiate his scientific Wave analysis technology from orthodox, subjective Elliott Wave analysis, which is frequently nebulous, inaccurate, and constantly fluid.
What is Elliott Wave? In the early 1930s, Ralph Nelson Elliott presented his theory of market behavior, which quantifies each stage of an economic cycle into specific patterns of mass psychology. Glenn Neely has devoted more than 25 years to mastering and advancing the concepts of Wave theory. Neely refined Elliott Wave theory to make it objective, practical, and consistently accurate, producing his now-famous NEoWave technology. This precise, step-by-step assessment of market structure leads to low-risk, high-profit investing and trading. Orthodox Elliott Wave, devoid of such technology and rules, typically leaves the analyst with ambiguous interpretations, seriously flawed results, and dual-directional forecasts.
Today, decades after R.N. Elliott penned his original theory, countless investors and traders trust Neely's revolutionary, step-by-step NEoWave approach to market analysis. Devotees of NEoWave Institute and Glenn Neely are reaping the rewards of low-risk, high-profit investing. Learn more about Glenn Neely and NEoWave Institute.
The March-June rally is now ending, allowing the bear market to resume. During the next six months, the S&P will decline 50% or more, breaking well below 500!
Aliso Viejo, CA (PRWEB) June 16, 2009 -- Glenn Neely, founder of NEoWave Institute and prominent Elliott Wave analyst, today announces a startling prediction: The S&P 500 is forming a major top in June, which will be followed by a large decline, eventually pushing the stock market to record lows for the decade. "Technically speaking, according to NEoWave a correction began at last October's low; the March-June rally is the final leg of that correction," Neely explains. "The March-June rally is now ending, allowing the bear market to resume. During the next six months, the S&P will decline 50% or more, breaking well below 500!" Currently, the S&P is hovering around 917.Glenn Neely is providing this information not as a specific trade recommendation but as a general public service announcement. A prominent Elliott Wave analyst, Neely was recently recognized in Timer Digest's May issue as the #1 stock market timer for the past 12 months.For those who want detailed trading strategies and insight, Neely provides specific recommendations to subscribers of the NEoWave Trading Service.
About Glenn Neely and NEoWave Institute:
Glenn Neely, who is internationally regarded as the premier Elliott Wave analyst, founded the Elliott Wave Institute in 1983. In 1990, Neely published his advanced Wave analysis process in his now-classic book, Mastering Elliott Wave. In 2000, Neely changed the name of his research and advisory firm to NEoWave Institute to differentiate his scientific Wave analysis technology from orthodox, subjective Elliott Wave analysis, which is frequently nebulous, inaccurate, and constantly fluid.
What is Elliott Wave? In the early 1930s, Ralph Nelson Elliott presented his theory of market behavior, which quantifies each stage of an economic cycle into specific patterns of mass psychology. Glenn Neely has devoted more than 25 years to mastering and advancing the concepts of Wave theory. Neely refined Elliott Wave theory to make it objective, practical, and consistently accurate, producing his now-famous NEoWave technology. This precise, step-by-step assessment of market structure leads to low-risk, high-profit investing and trading. Orthodox Elliott Wave, devoid of such technology and rules, typically leaves the analyst with ambiguous interpretations, seriously flawed results, and dual-directional forecasts.
Today, decades after R.N. Elliott penned his original theory, countless investors and traders trust Neely's revolutionary, step-by-step NEoWave approach to market analysis. Devotees of NEoWave Institute and Glenn Neely are reaping the rewards of low-risk, high-profit investing. Learn more about Glenn Neely and NEoWave Institute.
Kekhawatiran Rating Hutang AS & Spekulasi The Fed Lemahkan Dolar AS
USD Index 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low EUR-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
80.27 89.62 (04/03) 78.59 (01/06) 1.3945 1.4337 (03/06) 1.2459 (04/03)
Dolar diperdagangkan di dekat level terendah 2-pekan terhadap yen dan melemah terhadap mata uang Eropa setelah pasar berspekulasi the Fed akan meningkatkan pembelian Treasury dan mortgage securities yang menurunkan peluang the Fed untuk menaikkan suku bunga di akhir tahun ini, diikuti kenaikan harga komoditi setelah laporan inventory minyak anjlok untuk pekan ke-2. Pernyataan agen rating Standard & Poors bahwa rating kredit AAA AS tidak akan diturunkan dalam waktu dekat, mendorng kekhawatiran terhadap asst di AS, dimana dapat memicu rencana diversifikasi cadangan devisa oleh sejumlah negara emerging BRIC dalam waktu dekat. Semalam, AS merilis data CPI yang tercatat 0.1% m/m, lebih rendah dari perkiraan pasar dan mengalami penurunan terbesar untuk tingkat tahunan sejak 1950, anjlok 1.3%. Inflasi inti meningkat 0.1%, atau 1.8% y/y. Sementara laporan current account defisit AS menyusut di Q1 menjadi US$ 101.5 miliar, terendah sejak Q4 2001. Hari ini pasar akan mencari petunjuk data ekonomi AS dan indeks DJI (sektor bank) hari ini.
Euro mengalami penguatan terhadap dolar kemarin, setelah daya tarik untuk memegang dolar AS, setelah agen rating S&P kembali meningkatkan kekhawatiran terhadap rating kredit AAA AS yang berpotensi diturunkan dalam waktu dekat, yang dapat mendorong sejumlah engara grup negara emerging BRIC melakukan diversifikasi cadangan devisa dari bentuk dolar AS ke bentuk mata uang euro atau mata uang yang dapat memberikan yield yang lebih tinggi. euro juga menguat berkat spekulasi pejabat bank sentral Eropa hari ini akan memberikan signal bank sentral akan menahan diri untuk menurunkan suku bunga. Imbas kenaikan harga komoditi global dimana harga minyak kembali mencapai diatas $ 71/barel setelah laporan inventori crude AS anjlok untuk pekan ke-2. Meredanya peluang kenaikan suku bunga AS dan data defisit perdagangan euro membaik menjadi 0.3 miliar euro dari 1.8 miliar euro. Pasar akan mencari petunjuk dari komentar pejabat ECB dan data ekonomi AS hari ini.
USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
95.71 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.6379 1.6661 (03/06) 1.3502 (23/01)
Yen mengalami penguatan terhadap dolar dan euro, berkat meredanya spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga AS di akhir tahun setelah laporan dari media bahwa the Fed akan kembali meningkatkan pembelian Treasury dan mortgage securities di pertemuan FOMC pekan depan, diikuti kekhawatiran rating kredit AAA AS akan diturunkan oleh S&P dalam waktu dekat, ikut mendorong investor memburu yen sebagai mata uang safe haven di tengah keraguan mengenai pemulihan ekonomi AS dan Eropa. Meski penguatan yen hari ini dapat dibatasi oleh laporan pemerintah yang menunjukkan investor Jepang membeli lebih banyak aset di luar negeri ketimbang mereka jual dalam 6 pekan terakhir. Investor Jepang membeli 550.2 miliar yen ($ 5.7 miliar) lebih banyak obligasi dan surat berharga dibandingkan yang mereka beli hingga 13 Juni. Yen menguat ke level tertinggi 2-pekan terhadap dolar di Y 95.55 dari level tertinggi Y 96.77 sebelum ditutup di Y 95.56. Pasar akan mengamati data ekonomi AS dan pergerakan DJIA (bank) hari ini.
Pound sterling mengalami penguatan terhadap dolar berkat spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga AS di akhir tahun mereda dan pernyataan agen rating S&P bahwa rating kredit AAA milik AS tidak akan diturunkan dalam waktu dekat, mendorong investor memburu aset yang beresiko seperti komoditi dan obligasi. Meski kemarin, pound mendapatkan sentimen negatif dari komentar Gubernur bank sentral Inggris Mervyn King yang mengatakan sistem perbankan Inggris mungkin memerlukan tambahan kapital equity dan masih terlalu dini untuk memutarbalikkan kebijakan pelonggaran moneter. Pound juga terpukul oleh data employment Claimant Count Inggris meningkat lebih rendah dari perkiraan pasar, tercatat 39.300 menjadi 1.54 juta di bulan lalu, pengangguran meningkat 232,000 menjadi 2.26 juta. CBI memperkirakan total pengangguran di Inggris akan mencapai puncak di Q2 2010 menjadi 3.03 juta. Pasar akan mengamati data ekonomi AS.
KIE 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
10235 12,150 (02/03) 9,900 (05/06) 0.7958 0.8263 (03/06) 0.6248 (02/02)
Kontrak Indeks Emas (USD-IDR) di sesi Asia hari ini melanjutkan penguatan ke level tertinggi 10,250 (Reuters) setelah investor lokal masih memburu dolar AS karena meningkatnya permintaan untuk korporasi (pembayaran hutang) dan kekhawatiran kenaikan harga minyak akan meningkatkan beban anggaran pemerintah (subsidi BBM dan listrik). Pelemahan mata uang regional Asia (won Korea Selatan). Aksi profit-taking di saham lokal (IHSG) (-40, 1984) ikut memberikan sentimen positif kepada KIE. Meski potensi penguatan KIE terbatas menjelang debat calon presiden RI tanggal 18 Juni dan laporan RI akan mendapatkan Rp 2 trilun dari lelang surat hutang pemerintah di pekan depan untuk membantu membiayai defisit anggaran dan spekulasi the Fed akan mempertahankan suku bunga AS dengan melanjutkan pembelian Treasury dan mortgage securities di pertemuan FOMC pekan depan. Perkiraan range : 10,200-10,300 hingga sesi pagi besok.
Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) mengalami technical rebound karena penguatan saham AS dan penguatan euro dolar berkat sentimen negatif dari isu suku bunga AS dan rating kredit AAA mlik AS, meningkatkan daya tarik untuk memegang mata uang aussie dan kiwi. Hari ini bank sentral Australia mengatakan mereka telah menjual A$ 1.4 miliar mata uang aussie selama bulan Mei, net sales terbesar sejak Februari 2004, karena aussie menguat rekor 10.4% di bulan lalu. Kondisi tersebut akan membatasi potensi penguatan aussie dan kiwi terhadap dolar hari ini.
Technical Analysis
(closed all position di 1.3980; +100p+170p+30p) EUR-USD menunjukkan pola descending triangke di chart daily, candle three inside out dengan indikator MACD bullish, Stochastic & ADX terkoreksi turun, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan peluang kenaikan terbatas. Hitungan Elliot wave euro dolar dalam zig zag wave c dalam sub wave intermediate 4. Support di 1.3734 (support line)/1.3611 (50.0% FR). Resistance di 1.3876 (50.0% fibonacci retracement)/1.4047 (downtrend ressistance). Buy break 1.4050 target di 1.4120 stop 60p, buy 1.3750 target 1.4000 stop 60p, sell 1.4030 & 1.4120 target 1.3900 stop 60p. buy break 1.4180 target 1.4330.
(hold buy 95.65 target 97.50 stop 94.65). USDJPY menunjukkan signal negatif three white soldier, meski masih terjaga dari support line di 95.72 untuk mempertahankan trend netral jangka pendek, jika ditutup dibawah level tersebut target 95.01, diikuti indikator ADX mulai rebound, MACD dan stochastic terkoreksi turun, seharusnya mendukung strategi sell on rally sejak kemarin untuk target 95.65/94.00. Support berada di 95.01 (76.4% FR). Trend masih bearish karena ditutup dibawah 96.74 (10 MA)/96.43 (200 MA). Buy break 96.15 target 97.50 stop 98.00, sell 98.20 & 98.80 target 97.00 stop diatas 99.70, sell 99.70 target 98.00 stop 30p. buy 95.00 & 94.60 target 97.50 stop di 94.00.
(+100p-60p). GBPUSD masih mempertahankan trend bullish karena mennjukkan pola daily candle dojis dan adanya trendline resistance di 1.6575 yang juga merupakan resistance line untuk pola ascending triangle, meski tidak didukung oleh indikator ADX yang terkoreksi turun, stochastic crossing, seharusnya masih memperlihatkan potensi kenaikan terbatas dalam 1-2 hari ini. Tembusnya trendline resistance di 1.6575 dapat mendorong GBP ke target 1.6661/1.6814. Analisa EW menunjukkan proses wave c dalam wave koreksi intemediate 4. Buy 1.6185/1.6220 target 1.6550 stop 60p, buy break 1.6580 target 1.6810 stop 100p. Sell break 1.6000 target 1.5810 stop 50p. Sell 1.6810 target 1.6660 stop 50p. Buy 1.5810 target 1.6450 stop 50p. Sell 1.6550 target 1.6300 stop 60p. Buy break 1.6430 target 1.6550. Hold buy 0.7870 & 0.7960 target 0.8100 stop 0.7850).
AUD-USD mulai mendapatkan signal positif dari tertahannya support line di 0.7855 didukung oleh stochastic yang crossing down dan pola candle dojis (potensi bullish reversal), untuk mencapai diatas 0.7990 (former support)/0.8209 (resistance line). Meski indikator ADX dan MACD terkoreksi turun menunjukkan potensi penurunan terbatas. Elliot wave menunjukkan proses wave c dalam wave intermediate 3. Buy 0.7800 target 0.8100, buy break 0.7990 target 0.8350 stop 60p. Buy 0.7750 target 0.8100 stop 60p, sell 0.8100 target 0.7800 stop 50p. Buy break 0.8200 target 0.8450.
80.27 89.62 (04/03) 78.59 (01/06) 1.3945 1.4337 (03/06) 1.2459 (04/03)
Dolar diperdagangkan di dekat level terendah 2-pekan terhadap yen dan melemah terhadap mata uang Eropa setelah pasar berspekulasi the Fed akan meningkatkan pembelian Treasury dan mortgage securities yang menurunkan peluang the Fed untuk menaikkan suku bunga di akhir tahun ini, diikuti kenaikan harga komoditi setelah laporan inventory minyak anjlok untuk pekan ke-2. Pernyataan agen rating Standard & Poors bahwa rating kredit AAA AS tidak akan diturunkan dalam waktu dekat, mendorng kekhawatiran terhadap asst di AS, dimana dapat memicu rencana diversifikasi cadangan devisa oleh sejumlah negara emerging BRIC dalam waktu dekat. Semalam, AS merilis data CPI yang tercatat 0.1% m/m, lebih rendah dari perkiraan pasar dan mengalami penurunan terbesar untuk tingkat tahunan sejak 1950, anjlok 1.3%. Inflasi inti meningkat 0.1%, atau 1.8% y/y. Sementara laporan current account defisit AS menyusut di Q1 menjadi US$ 101.5 miliar, terendah sejak Q4 2001. Hari ini pasar akan mencari petunjuk data ekonomi AS dan indeks DJI (sektor bank) hari ini.
Euro mengalami penguatan terhadap dolar kemarin, setelah daya tarik untuk memegang dolar AS, setelah agen rating S&P kembali meningkatkan kekhawatiran terhadap rating kredit AAA AS yang berpotensi diturunkan dalam waktu dekat, yang dapat mendorong sejumlah engara grup negara emerging BRIC melakukan diversifikasi cadangan devisa dari bentuk dolar AS ke bentuk mata uang euro atau mata uang yang dapat memberikan yield yang lebih tinggi. euro juga menguat berkat spekulasi pejabat bank sentral Eropa hari ini akan memberikan signal bank sentral akan menahan diri untuk menurunkan suku bunga. Imbas kenaikan harga komoditi global dimana harga minyak kembali mencapai diatas $ 71/barel setelah laporan inventori crude AS anjlok untuk pekan ke-2. Meredanya peluang kenaikan suku bunga AS dan data defisit perdagangan euro membaik menjadi 0.3 miliar euro dari 1.8 miliar euro. Pasar akan mencari petunjuk dari komentar pejabat ECB dan data ekonomi AS hari ini.
USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
95.71 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.6379 1.6661 (03/06) 1.3502 (23/01)
Yen mengalami penguatan terhadap dolar dan euro, berkat meredanya spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga AS di akhir tahun setelah laporan dari media bahwa the Fed akan kembali meningkatkan pembelian Treasury dan mortgage securities di pertemuan FOMC pekan depan, diikuti kekhawatiran rating kredit AAA AS akan diturunkan oleh S&P dalam waktu dekat, ikut mendorong investor memburu yen sebagai mata uang safe haven di tengah keraguan mengenai pemulihan ekonomi AS dan Eropa. Meski penguatan yen hari ini dapat dibatasi oleh laporan pemerintah yang menunjukkan investor Jepang membeli lebih banyak aset di luar negeri ketimbang mereka jual dalam 6 pekan terakhir. Investor Jepang membeli 550.2 miliar yen ($ 5.7 miliar) lebih banyak obligasi dan surat berharga dibandingkan yang mereka beli hingga 13 Juni. Yen menguat ke level tertinggi 2-pekan terhadap dolar di Y 95.55 dari level tertinggi Y 96.77 sebelum ditutup di Y 95.56. Pasar akan mengamati data ekonomi AS dan pergerakan DJIA (bank) hari ini.
Pound sterling mengalami penguatan terhadap dolar berkat spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga AS di akhir tahun mereda dan pernyataan agen rating S&P bahwa rating kredit AAA milik AS tidak akan diturunkan dalam waktu dekat, mendorong investor memburu aset yang beresiko seperti komoditi dan obligasi. Meski kemarin, pound mendapatkan sentimen negatif dari komentar Gubernur bank sentral Inggris Mervyn King yang mengatakan sistem perbankan Inggris mungkin memerlukan tambahan kapital equity dan masih terlalu dini untuk memutarbalikkan kebijakan pelonggaran moneter. Pound juga terpukul oleh data employment Claimant Count Inggris meningkat lebih rendah dari perkiraan pasar, tercatat 39.300 menjadi 1.54 juta di bulan lalu, pengangguran meningkat 232,000 menjadi 2.26 juta. CBI memperkirakan total pengangguran di Inggris akan mencapai puncak di Q2 2010 menjadi 3.03 juta. Pasar akan mengamati data ekonomi AS.
KIE 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
10235 12,150 (02/03) 9,900 (05/06) 0.7958 0.8263 (03/06) 0.6248 (02/02)
Kontrak Indeks Emas (USD-IDR) di sesi Asia hari ini melanjutkan penguatan ke level tertinggi 10,250 (Reuters) setelah investor lokal masih memburu dolar AS karena meningkatnya permintaan untuk korporasi (pembayaran hutang) dan kekhawatiran kenaikan harga minyak akan meningkatkan beban anggaran pemerintah (subsidi BBM dan listrik). Pelemahan mata uang regional Asia (won Korea Selatan). Aksi profit-taking di saham lokal (IHSG) (-40, 1984) ikut memberikan sentimen positif kepada KIE. Meski potensi penguatan KIE terbatas menjelang debat calon presiden RI tanggal 18 Juni dan laporan RI akan mendapatkan Rp 2 trilun dari lelang surat hutang pemerintah di pekan depan untuk membantu membiayai defisit anggaran dan spekulasi the Fed akan mempertahankan suku bunga AS dengan melanjutkan pembelian Treasury dan mortgage securities di pertemuan FOMC pekan depan. Perkiraan range : 10,200-10,300 hingga sesi pagi besok.
Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) mengalami technical rebound karena penguatan saham AS dan penguatan euro dolar berkat sentimen negatif dari isu suku bunga AS dan rating kredit AAA mlik AS, meningkatkan daya tarik untuk memegang mata uang aussie dan kiwi. Hari ini bank sentral Australia mengatakan mereka telah menjual A$ 1.4 miliar mata uang aussie selama bulan Mei, net sales terbesar sejak Februari 2004, karena aussie menguat rekor 10.4% di bulan lalu. Kondisi tersebut akan membatasi potensi penguatan aussie dan kiwi terhadap dolar hari ini.
Technical Analysis
(closed all position di 1.3980; +100p+170p+30p) EUR-USD menunjukkan pola descending triangke di chart daily, candle three inside out dengan indikator MACD bullish, Stochastic & ADX terkoreksi turun, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan peluang kenaikan terbatas. Hitungan Elliot wave euro dolar dalam zig zag wave c dalam sub wave intermediate 4. Support di 1.3734 (support line)/1.3611 (50.0% FR). Resistance di 1.3876 (50.0% fibonacci retracement)/1.4047 (downtrend ressistance). Buy break 1.4050 target di 1.4120 stop 60p, buy 1.3750 target 1.4000 stop 60p, sell 1.4030 & 1.4120 target 1.3900 stop 60p. buy break 1.4180 target 1.4330.
(hold buy 95.65 target 97.50 stop 94.65). USDJPY menunjukkan signal negatif three white soldier, meski masih terjaga dari support line di 95.72 untuk mempertahankan trend netral jangka pendek, jika ditutup dibawah level tersebut target 95.01, diikuti indikator ADX mulai rebound, MACD dan stochastic terkoreksi turun, seharusnya mendukung strategi sell on rally sejak kemarin untuk target 95.65/94.00. Support berada di 95.01 (76.4% FR). Trend masih bearish karena ditutup dibawah 96.74 (10 MA)/96.43 (200 MA). Buy break 96.15 target 97.50 stop 98.00, sell 98.20 & 98.80 target 97.00 stop diatas 99.70, sell 99.70 target 98.00 stop 30p. buy 95.00 & 94.60 target 97.50 stop di 94.00.
(+100p-60p). GBPUSD masih mempertahankan trend bullish karena mennjukkan pola daily candle dojis dan adanya trendline resistance di 1.6575 yang juga merupakan resistance line untuk pola ascending triangle, meski tidak didukung oleh indikator ADX yang terkoreksi turun, stochastic crossing, seharusnya masih memperlihatkan potensi kenaikan terbatas dalam 1-2 hari ini. Tembusnya trendline resistance di 1.6575 dapat mendorong GBP ke target 1.6661/1.6814. Analisa EW menunjukkan proses wave c dalam wave koreksi intemediate 4. Buy 1.6185/1.6220 target 1.6550 stop 60p, buy break 1.6580 target 1.6810 stop 100p. Sell break 1.6000 target 1.5810 stop 50p. Sell 1.6810 target 1.6660 stop 50p. Buy 1.5810 target 1.6450 stop 50p. Sell 1.6550 target 1.6300 stop 60p. Buy break 1.6430 target 1.6550. Hold buy 0.7870 & 0.7960 target 0.8100 stop 0.7850).
AUD-USD mulai mendapatkan signal positif dari tertahannya support line di 0.7855 didukung oleh stochastic yang crossing down dan pola candle dojis (potensi bullish reversal), untuk mencapai diatas 0.7990 (former support)/0.8209 (resistance line). Meski indikator ADX dan MACD terkoreksi turun menunjukkan potensi penurunan terbatas. Elliot wave menunjukkan proses wave c dalam wave intermediate 3. Buy 0.7800 target 0.8100, buy break 0.7990 target 0.8350 stop 60p. Buy 0.7750 target 0.8100 stop 60p, sell 0.8100 target 0.7800 stop 50p. Buy break 0.8200 target 0.8450.
Perubahan Trend IHSG Menjadi Netral Membebani Bull Market
Market Review
Pergerakan indeks saham regional masih mendikte pergerakan saham lokal, berkat faktor teknikal overbought dan valuasi saham yang mahal, di tengah kekhawatiran kenaikan harga minyak saat ini dapat mengganggu proses pemulihan ekonomi global, mendorong aksi profit-taking saham di sektor industri dan finansial yang paling terpukul, diikuti komoditi, infrastruktur, mengacuhkan sejumlah isu positif dari emiten (RMBA, INDY, TINS, BUMI, KLBF). Laporan Mappi mengenai akusisi 3 perusahaan oleh PT Bumi Resources dan pelemahan rupiah (Rp 10,230 kemarin) karena investor asing melakukan switching portopolio mereka dari saham ke bentuk mata uang dolar AS, ikut membebani IHSG, meski tekanan penjualan mereda kemarin. Indeks terkoreksi 5.401 poin (-0.266%), ditutup di 2,024.965, nilai transaksi BEI tercatat Rp 8.786 triliun (crossing saham RMBA Rp 5.449 triliun). Net selling investor asing sebesar Rp 99.384 miliar, menurun dibanding net sell Rp 601.41 miliar (16/06).
Mayotitas indeks saham di Asia-Pasifik terkoreksi, dipimpin oleh saham pertambangan dan perbankan, setelah Presiden AS Barack Obama mengatakan tingkat pengangguran di AS mungkin mencapai 10% (dari 9.4% di bulan Mei) dan pemerintah Australia mengatakan teralu dini untk mengatakan Australia menghindari sebuah resesi. Meski saham Jepang dan China menguat, setelah BOJ menaikkan pandangan ekonomi dan PBOC tidak akan memperketat pinjaman.
Faktor kondisi regional yang tidak kondusif, penurunan harga komoditi dan valuasi saham unggulan overvalued, menjadi faktor utama pendorong penurunan IHSG dalam beberapa hari ini, meredam sejumlah sentimen positif dari dalam negeri. Sementara pelemahan rupiah terhadap dolar AS berkat meningkatnya permintaan dari korporasi untuk pembayaran hutang dan imbas dari pelemahan mata uang Asia Pasifik karena dolar AS kembali menjadi safe haven di tengah ketidakpastian pemulihan ekonomi global dan trend kenaikan harga minyak (terkoreksi ke $ 69.28 kemarin) berpotensi meningkatkan subsidi BBM & listrik pemerintah (Jan-Mei 2009: ICP average $46.5/barel) ikut membebani kinerja IHSG. Meski isu pembagian dividen, tender offer dan sejumlah bank turunkan suku bunga KPR, masih memberikan support kepada IHSG hari ini.
Top Pick: Hold BUMI/BNBR/ENRG/DEWA & MNCN/BMTR, ASII, TLKM, INKP, HEXA, BBRI, BMRI, ANTM, INCO. Buy UNTR, TINS.
Stock Picks:
* CNKO Speculative buy target Rp 130
* RMBA Buy target Rp 950
Global Outlook
Meningkatnya sejumlah isu negatif kembali membebani kinerja “BULL MARKET” regional kemarin, seperti komentar Presiden AS Barack Obama yang memprediksi pengangguran akan meningkat ke 10% dari 9.4% di bulan Mei, Standard & Poors menurunkan rating kredit 22 bank di AS, mahalnya indeks S&P 500 (PER 14.9 X), anjloknya data inflasi AS (+0.1% m/m, -1.3% y/y penurunan terbesar sejak tahun 1950) dan lebih rendah dari perkiraan employment Inggris, memberikan keraguan terhadap proses pemulihan ekonomi global, sehingga investor memburu aset safe haven seperti dolar AS dan yen, telah menurunkan daya tarik untuk saham dan komoditi global. Meski laju penurunan regional terbatas selama DJI futures tidak ditutup dibawah teknikal support 9,433 dan harga minyak tidak ditutup dibawah support $66.80 (inventory crude AS anjlok untuk pekan ke-2), seharusnya masih menopang kinerja indeks regional dan AS.
Technical Analysis:
IHSG mulai mendapatkan signal positif dari pola candle doji star, diikuti penutupan diatas pivot point 2,022.91 & 2,015 (38.2% fibonacci retracement 2116-1989), seharusnya meredam tekanan bearish hari ini, meski trend berbalik menjadi netral dari bullish setelah IHSG gagal ditutup diatas channel support di 2,046 kemarin. Indikator teknikal ADX masih terkoreksi turun menunjukkan laju penurunan terbatas dan cenderung rebound di akhir pekan ini ke target 2,067 (5-day MA)/2,084 (trendline) selama ditutup diatas 1,932 (uptrend support). Hitungan Elliot Wave: indeks berada di akhir wave b untuk ke arah wave c dalam minor 5 extended subwave impulse 3 dalam wave intermediate 4 / (B), target di 2,165 (61.8 % Fibonacci retracement 1089-2835)/2,425 (76.4% FR).
Resistance: 2072.68/2060.24/2047.79/2029.64. PP 2022.91
Support : 2017.20/2011.49/2004.76/1998.02
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2,010-2,060)
Pergerakan indeks saham regional masih mendikte pergerakan saham lokal, berkat faktor teknikal overbought dan valuasi saham yang mahal, di tengah kekhawatiran kenaikan harga minyak saat ini dapat mengganggu proses pemulihan ekonomi global, mendorong aksi profit-taking saham di sektor industri dan finansial yang paling terpukul, diikuti komoditi, infrastruktur, mengacuhkan sejumlah isu positif dari emiten (RMBA, INDY, TINS, BUMI, KLBF). Laporan Mappi mengenai akusisi 3 perusahaan oleh PT Bumi Resources dan pelemahan rupiah (Rp 10,230 kemarin) karena investor asing melakukan switching portopolio mereka dari saham ke bentuk mata uang dolar AS, ikut membebani IHSG, meski tekanan penjualan mereda kemarin. Indeks terkoreksi 5.401 poin (-0.266%), ditutup di 2,024.965, nilai transaksi BEI tercatat Rp 8.786 triliun (crossing saham RMBA Rp 5.449 triliun). Net selling investor asing sebesar Rp 99.384 miliar, menurun dibanding net sell Rp 601.41 miliar (16/06).
Mayotitas indeks saham di Asia-Pasifik terkoreksi, dipimpin oleh saham pertambangan dan perbankan, setelah Presiden AS Barack Obama mengatakan tingkat pengangguran di AS mungkin mencapai 10% (dari 9.4% di bulan Mei) dan pemerintah Australia mengatakan teralu dini untk mengatakan Australia menghindari sebuah resesi. Meski saham Jepang dan China menguat, setelah BOJ menaikkan pandangan ekonomi dan PBOC tidak akan memperketat pinjaman.
Faktor kondisi regional yang tidak kondusif, penurunan harga komoditi dan valuasi saham unggulan overvalued, menjadi faktor utama pendorong penurunan IHSG dalam beberapa hari ini, meredam sejumlah sentimen positif dari dalam negeri. Sementara pelemahan rupiah terhadap dolar AS berkat meningkatnya permintaan dari korporasi untuk pembayaran hutang dan imbas dari pelemahan mata uang Asia Pasifik karena dolar AS kembali menjadi safe haven di tengah ketidakpastian pemulihan ekonomi global dan trend kenaikan harga minyak (terkoreksi ke $ 69.28 kemarin) berpotensi meningkatkan subsidi BBM & listrik pemerintah (Jan-Mei 2009: ICP average $46.5/barel) ikut membebani kinerja IHSG. Meski isu pembagian dividen, tender offer dan sejumlah bank turunkan suku bunga KPR, masih memberikan support kepada IHSG hari ini.
Top Pick: Hold BUMI/BNBR/ENRG/DEWA & MNCN/BMTR, ASII, TLKM, INKP, HEXA, BBRI, BMRI, ANTM, INCO. Buy UNTR, TINS.
Stock Picks:
* CNKO Speculative buy target Rp 130
* RMBA Buy target Rp 950
Global Outlook
Meningkatnya sejumlah isu negatif kembali membebani kinerja “BULL MARKET” regional kemarin, seperti komentar Presiden AS Barack Obama yang memprediksi pengangguran akan meningkat ke 10% dari 9.4% di bulan Mei, Standard & Poors menurunkan rating kredit 22 bank di AS, mahalnya indeks S&P 500 (PER 14.9 X), anjloknya data inflasi AS (+0.1% m/m, -1.3% y/y penurunan terbesar sejak tahun 1950) dan lebih rendah dari perkiraan employment Inggris, memberikan keraguan terhadap proses pemulihan ekonomi global, sehingga investor memburu aset safe haven seperti dolar AS dan yen, telah menurunkan daya tarik untuk saham dan komoditi global. Meski laju penurunan regional terbatas selama DJI futures tidak ditutup dibawah teknikal support 9,433 dan harga minyak tidak ditutup dibawah support $66.80 (inventory crude AS anjlok untuk pekan ke-2), seharusnya masih menopang kinerja indeks regional dan AS.
Technical Analysis:
IHSG mulai mendapatkan signal positif dari pola candle doji star, diikuti penutupan diatas pivot point 2,022.91 & 2,015 (38.2% fibonacci retracement 2116-1989), seharusnya meredam tekanan bearish hari ini, meski trend berbalik menjadi netral dari bullish setelah IHSG gagal ditutup diatas channel support di 2,046 kemarin. Indikator teknikal ADX masih terkoreksi turun menunjukkan laju penurunan terbatas dan cenderung rebound di akhir pekan ini ke target 2,067 (5-day MA)/2,084 (trendline) selama ditutup diatas 1,932 (uptrend support). Hitungan Elliot Wave: indeks berada di akhir wave b untuk ke arah wave c dalam minor 5 extended subwave impulse 3 dalam wave intermediate 4 / (B), target di 2,165 (61.8 % Fibonacci retracement 1089-2835)/2,425 (76.4% FR).
Resistance: 2072.68/2060.24/2047.79/2029.64. PP 2022.91
Support : 2017.20/2011.49/2004.76/1998.02
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2,010-2,060)
Daily Technical Analysis Forex & DJIA
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank
EURUSD
Comment: Little to add as we hover above the 'neckline' of a potential 'head-and-shoulders', though proponents of this view may be getting a little frustrated. We remind that there is a high probability of this formation not going to plan as further out we see it as a process of trying to form a new interim low, probably somewhere between 1.3800 and 1.3600. This is expected to be a slow complex process ending an A, B, C-type correction which may take about two weeks. Strategy: Possibly attempt small longs at 1.3940, adding to 1.3880; stop well below 1.3740. Short term target 1.4050. Direction of Trade: →
Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.3921 " 1.3973
1.3877 1.3986
1.38 1.402
1.3748 1.4050*
1.3600* 1.4178
GBPUSD
Comment: Holding surprisingly neatly above the 9-day moving average keeping open the possibility a re-test of this month's high at 1.6664 possibly as early as the end of this week. Several other major currencies are behaving in a similar way lending support to our view that we are currently in the process of trying to form a new interim low and more generalised US dollar weakness in Q3. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6385; stop well below 1.6200. First target 1.6500, then 1.6600 and more long term.Direction of Trade: →Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.6330 " 1.6483
1.6210* 1.6507
1.612 1.66
1.6 1.6622
1.594 1.6664*
USDJPY
Comment: Dropping to 95.65, as expected, and will probably try and hover uneasily around here today. The risk of a sudden drop has increased because of stock market weakness coinciding with month and quarter-end, potentially leading to a Pavlov's dog type reaction to buy Yen as they learnt in 2008. Caution is warranted. Strategy: Possibly attempt small shorts at 96.00 but only if prepared to add to 97.00; stop above 97.65. First target 95.65/95.50, re-selling on a sustained break below here for 94.00Direction of Trade: →
Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
95.63 " 96
95.50* 96.4
95.33 97
95 97.27*
94.44 97.6
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade |
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 8490.93(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8479.68, where correction also can be. Then follows 8463.00. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8426.22. Continuation will bring 8392.44.Today's resistance: - 8562.30, 8606.26, 8645.40 and 8686.42(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8732.80, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8775.00, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8814.63. Continuation would bring 8834.25 and 8842.00.
EURUSD
Comment: Little to add as we hover above the 'neckline' of a potential 'head-and-shoulders', though proponents of this view may be getting a little frustrated. We remind that there is a high probability of this formation not going to plan as further out we see it as a process of trying to form a new interim low, probably somewhere between 1.3800 and 1.3600. This is expected to be a slow complex process ending an A, B, C-type correction which may take about two weeks. Strategy: Possibly attempt small longs at 1.3940, adding to 1.3880; stop well below 1.3740. Short term target 1.4050. Direction of Trade: →
Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.3921 " 1.3973
1.3877 1.3986
1.38 1.402
1.3748 1.4050*
1.3600* 1.4178
GBPUSD
Comment: Holding surprisingly neatly above the 9-day moving average keeping open the possibility a re-test of this month's high at 1.6664 possibly as early as the end of this week. Several other major currencies are behaving in a similar way lending support to our view that we are currently in the process of trying to form a new interim low and more generalised US dollar weakness in Q3. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6385; stop well below 1.6200. First target 1.6500, then 1.6600 and more long term.Direction of Trade: →Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.6330 " 1.6483
1.6210* 1.6507
1.612 1.66
1.6 1.6622
1.594 1.6664*
USDJPY
Comment: Dropping to 95.65, as expected, and will probably try and hover uneasily around here today. The risk of a sudden drop has increased because of stock market weakness coinciding with month and quarter-end, potentially leading to a Pavlov's dog type reaction to buy Yen as they learnt in 2008. Caution is warranted. Strategy: Possibly attempt small shorts at 96.00 but only if prepared to add to 97.00; stop above 97.65. First target 95.65/95.50, re-selling on a sustained break below here for 94.00Direction of Trade: →
Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
95.63 " 96
95.50* 96.4
95.33 97
95 97.27*
94.44 97.6
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade |
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 8490.93(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8479.68, where correction also can be. Then follows 8463.00. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8426.22. Continuation will bring 8392.44.Today's resistance: - 8562.30, 8606.26, 8645.40 and 8686.42(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8732.80, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8775.00, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8814.63. Continuation would bring 8834.25 and 8842.00.
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Daily Technical Analysis Forex/DJIA/Gold
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
Rupee :Rupee opened lower at 47.70 taking cues of dollar strength across the board. Stiff Resistance for Rupee comes around 47.95 (38.2% Retracement of the recent fall) and then at 48.32 (50% Retracement). Rupee is expected to remain slightly on a weaker note due to dollar strength overseas and poor performance of stock markets. Outlook remains weak till 48.35 levels. (USD/INR : 47.82). Short term bearish & Medium Term Bullish.
Gold : Gold is clearly bearish since its holding below its daily trend at $960. We can look at accumulating short positions at $ 935 till $957 for targets below $900. Gold- $931.40). Bearish
Dollar Index : DX bounced back from 79 levels (as expected) and is currently trading above 80-mark. The chart is turning bullish since the downtrend line has been broken and market is holding above 80 levels. Till we see the levels above 80 the index holds bullish. (DI- 81.00) Short term Bullish.
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank
EURUSD
Comment: Closing just below the 'neckline' of a potential 'head-and-shoulders' formation and below the moving averages. Nevertheless we still feel that an interim will low will form this week or next somewhere between 1.3800 and 1.3600 retracement support because we are mapping out an A, B, C-type correction. Strategy: Possibly attempt small longs at 1.3825; stop well below 1.3740. Short term target 1.4050.
Direction of Trade: →↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.3800 " 1.3852
1.3748 1.39
1.3727 1.3975
1.3600* 1.402
1.3555 1.405
GBPUSD
Comment: Doing better than many currencies, consolidating under a potential 'double top', clinging to the 9-day moving average. We shall allow for more consolidation under 1.6600 this week, but expect a new interim base to form around the 1.6000 area (1.5800 would be ideal). Strategy: Possibly attempt small longs at 1.6290; stop well below 1.6200. First target 1.6430.Direction of Trade: →↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.6210* " 1.6435
1.612 1.6475
1.6 1.66
1.594 1.6622
1.5800* 1.6664
USDJPY
Comment: Plunging below a thin Ichimoku 'cloud' and below moving averages. Yen crosses are also dropping sharply which might increase downside momentum here. Allow for a possibly dramatic spike to 95.65. Strategy: Possibly attempt small shorts at 96.25 but only if prepared to add to 97.50; stop above 98.65. First target 96.00, maybe 95.65.Direction of Trade: →Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
96.18 " 96.78
96 97
95.65* 97.24
95.33 97.7
94.44 98.1
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: -8550.08, 8522.40 and 8502.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8495.80, where correction also can be. Then follows 8463.00. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8426.22. Continuation will bring 8392.44. Today's resistance: - 8645.40 and 8686.42(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8732.80, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8775.00, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8814.63. Continuation would bring 8834.25 and 8842.00.
Rupee :Rupee opened lower at 47.70 taking cues of dollar strength across the board. Stiff Resistance for Rupee comes around 47.95 (38.2% Retracement of the recent fall) and then at 48.32 (50% Retracement). Rupee is expected to remain slightly on a weaker note due to dollar strength overseas and poor performance of stock markets. Outlook remains weak till 48.35 levels. (USD/INR : 47.82). Short term bearish & Medium Term Bullish.
Gold : Gold is clearly bearish since its holding below its daily trend at $960. We can look at accumulating short positions at $ 935 till $957 for targets below $900. Gold- $931.40). Bearish
Dollar Index : DX bounced back from 79 levels (as expected) and is currently trading above 80-mark. The chart is turning bullish since the downtrend line has been broken and market is holding above 80 levels. Till we see the levels above 80 the index holds bullish. (DI- 81.00) Short term Bullish.
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank
EURUSD
Comment: Closing just below the 'neckline' of a potential 'head-and-shoulders' formation and below the moving averages. Nevertheless we still feel that an interim will low will form this week or next somewhere between 1.3800 and 1.3600 retracement support because we are mapping out an A, B, C-type correction. Strategy: Possibly attempt small longs at 1.3825; stop well below 1.3740. Short term target 1.4050.
Direction of Trade: →↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.3800 " 1.3852
1.3748 1.39
1.3727 1.3975
1.3600* 1.402
1.3555 1.405
GBPUSD
Comment: Doing better than many currencies, consolidating under a potential 'double top', clinging to the 9-day moving average. We shall allow for more consolidation under 1.6600 this week, but expect a new interim base to form around the 1.6000 area (1.5800 would be ideal). Strategy: Possibly attempt small longs at 1.6290; stop well below 1.6200. First target 1.6430.Direction of Trade: →↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.6210* " 1.6435
1.612 1.6475
1.6 1.66
1.594 1.6622
1.5800* 1.6664
USDJPY
Comment: Plunging below a thin Ichimoku 'cloud' and below moving averages. Yen crosses are also dropping sharply which might increase downside momentum here. Allow for a possibly dramatic spike to 95.65. Strategy: Possibly attempt small shorts at 96.25 but only if prepared to add to 97.50; stop above 98.65. First target 96.00, maybe 95.65.Direction of Trade: →Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
96.18 " 96.78
96 97
95.65* 97.24
95.33 97.7
94.44 98.1
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: -8550.08, 8522.40 and 8502.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8495.80, where correction also can be. Then follows 8463.00. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8426.22. Continuation will bring 8392.44. Today's resistance: - 8645.40 and 8686.42(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8732.80, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8775.00, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8814.63. Continuation would bring 8834.25 and 8842.00.
Elliot wave: Aud/Usd Flat or Triangle?
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by TheLFB-Forex.com
2 Hour Chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 0.7826, 0.7967, and 0.8260. Looking for: Wave 4) correction
Aussie has made a quite powerful turning point around previous wave 3) highs, and we are still watching for a correction structure in a blue wave 4). On the chart below we have actually two possible corrective wave counts which need to be completed before we can start to look for a higher wave 5) targets. The first possible correction structure in wave 4) is a triangle pattern with a third leg in process and two legs yet to come, where the prices must not break through the 0.7826 lows.
If the market can break through the 0.7967 support in the near future then it may also be the case of a flat correction with a possible turning point after a five waves of decline in a current leg lower. Below you can also check out a few corrective patterns which are possible in wave four position; we are looking for a “flat” and “symmetrical triangle”.
2 Hour Chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 0.7826, 0.7967, and 0.8260. Looking for: Wave 4) correction
Aussie has made a quite powerful turning point around previous wave 3) highs, and we are still watching for a correction structure in a blue wave 4). On the chart below we have actually two possible corrective wave counts which need to be completed before we can start to look for a higher wave 5) targets. The first possible correction structure in wave 4) is a triangle pattern with a third leg in process and two legs yet to come, where the prices must not break through the 0.7826 lows.
If the market can break through the 0.7967 support in the near future then it may also be the case of a flat correction with a possible turning point after a five waves of decline in a current leg lower. Below you can also check out a few corrective patterns which are possible in wave four position; we are looking for a “flat” and “symmetrical triangle”.
Koreksi Penurunan Euro & Pound Terlihat Berakhir
USD Index 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low EUR-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
81.05 89.62 (04/03) 78.59 (01/06) 1.3808 1.4337 (03/06) 1.2459 (04/03)
Dolar mengalami penguatan lebih lanjut untuk hari ke-3 terhadap mata uang Eropa hingga sesi Asia hari ini, meski melemah terhadap yen Jepang yang ikut menjadi safe haven setelah optimisme pemulihan ekonomi global mereda setelah laporan dari Jerman yang menunjukkan kondisi keuangan Jerman memburuk dan data NY PMI AS terkoreksi, diikuti meningkatnya optimisme untuk dolar AS setelah menteri keuangan Rusia dan Jepang dalam 2 sesi perdagangan terakhir memperlihatkan keyakinan untuk dolar AS sebagai mata uang untuk cadangan devisa global. Hal tersebut menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang saham dan komoditi global, yang mendorong terpuruknya pasar saham di Asia Pasifik dan komoditi global. Kemarin dolar menguat menjelang pertemuan negara BRIC hari ini, dimana sebelumnya IMF mempertahankan status dolar sebagai cadangan devisa global, dan lemahnya data Empire MFG bulan Juni (-9.4) dan laporan ECB menunjukkan bank di zona euro akan write down hutang sebesar US$ 283 miliar, tambahan dari US$ 366 miliar sejak pertengahan tahun 2007. Pasar akan mengamati pertemuan negara BRIC, data inflasi dan perumahan AS.
Euro terpuruk untuk hari ke-3 terhadap dolar, berkat meningkatnya sentimen negatif melanda euro sejak akhir pekan hingga hari ini, karena memburuknya kondisi ekonomi Euro, laporan bank di zona euro mengalami write down sebesar $ 283 miliar dan anjloknya data employment zona euro di kuartal pertama 2009 dimana sebelumnya data produksi industri euro mengalami rekor penurunan di bulan April, menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang euro. Euro kemarin melemah ke level terendah $ 1.3757 dan ke 1.3749 di sesi Asia hari ini, setelah bank sentral Eropa memperingkatkan dalam “financial stability review” bahwa bank-bank di zona euro mungkin akan mengalami kerugian sebesar US$ 283 miliar di tahun 2009/2010 karena resiko ke sektor finansial meningkat. Data employment payroll euro Q1 2009 mengalami rekor penurunan 0.8%. Lemahnya data ekonmi zona euro dan kekhawatiran kesehatan finansial euro, meredam permintaan untuk euro, menjelang pertemuan BRIC dan ZEW Sentimen Jerman hari ini, dimana dapat memberikan kejutan untuk penguatan euro.
USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
96.63 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.6269 1.6661 (03/06) 1.3502 (23/01)
Yen menguat terhadap dolar AS dan euro hari ini, setelah investor melakukan risk aversion kembali setelah optimisme pemulihan ekonomi global mereda berkat serangkaian sentimen negatif dari memburuknya kondisi ekonomi euro, terkoreksinya data manufaktur New York dan laporan ECB bahwa bank di zona euro akan mengalami kerugian finansial $ 288 miliar, meningkatkan kekhawatiran bahwa spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi global terlihat terlalu dini. Kondisi tersebut mendorong investor melakukan aksi profit-taking posisi long (buy) dolar yen, menjelang pertemuan BRIC (Brazil, Rusia, India dan China) hari ini, dimana menunggu pernyataan dari pejabat China mengenai isu diversifikasi cadangan devisa setelah China dilaporkan akan membeli obligasi IMF senilai US$ 50 miliar. Meski potensi penguatan yen terbatas karena menteri keuangan Jepang Kasuo Yosano menekankan kembali keyakinan sepenuhnya terhadap mata uang dolar AS sebagai cadangan devisa global. BOJ mempertahankan suku bunga 0.1% dan menjadi lebih optimis terhadap ekonomi, mendorong penguatan yen. Pasar akan mencari petunjuk dari data ekonomi Eropa dan AS hari ini.
Pound sterling melemah di sesi Asia hari ini terhadap dolar dan yen, karena investor melakukan risk aversion dan melakukan aksi profit-taking posisi long pound dolar karena meningkatnya sentimen negatif yang memicu kekhawatiran terhadap pemulihan ekonomi global, setelah laporan dari euro menunjukkan ekonomi dan potensi kerugian di bank di zona euro, menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang pound. Laporan dari Condeferation of British Industry Inggris mengatakan ekonomi tidak akan tumbuh hingga tahun depan. Pound juga terkoreksi setelah indeks saham FTSE 100 anjlok ke level terendah 3 pekan dan gilt (obligasi Inggris) menguat karena investor mencari safety ke obligasi pemerintah. CBI juga melaporkan BOE mungkin perlu mencetak lebih banyak uang untuk merangsang pertumbuhan. GDP diperkirakan akan merosot 0.3% di Q2 dan 0.1% di Q1, sebelum tidak ada pertumbuhan di kuartal empat tahun ini. Pasar akan mencari petunjuk dari sejumlah dari Inggris, Euro dan AS menjelang pertemuan negara BRIC hari ini.
KIE 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
10,200 12,150 (02/03) 9,900 (05/06) 0.7912 0.8263 (03/06) 0.6248 (02/02)
Kontrak Indeks Emas (USD-IDR) di sesi Asia hari ini melanjutkan penguatan ke level tertinggi 10,290 (Bloomberg) setelah investor global memburu aset yang tidak beresiko alias safe haven seperti dolar dan yen. Memburuknya kondisi ekonomi Eropa yang dapat meningkatkan kerugian finansial dan imbas penguatan indeks USD berkat keyakinan sepenuhnya untuk mata uang dolar sebagai cadangan deviasa global, meningkatkan permintaan untuk dolar rupiah. Aksi profit-taking di saham lokal (IHSG) ikut memberikan sentimen positif kepada KIE. Meski potensi penguatan KIE terbatas menjelang pertemuan negara BRIC hari ini dan menjelang debat calon presiden RI tanggal 18 Juni mendatang. Perkiraan range : 10,150-10,300 hingga sesi pagi besok.
Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) merosot ke level terendah 1 pekan terhadap dolar AS karena terpuruknya saham Asia Pasifik dan harga komoditas global (harga minyak mencapai di bawah $ 70/barel). Aussie anjlok ke level terendah 2-pekan terhadap yen karena minutes bank sentral Australia (RBA) menunjukkan pejabat mengatakan pandangan inflasi mendukung penurunan suku bunga lebih lanjut. Penguatan dolar terhadap mata uang Eropa karena kekhawatiran situasi finansial di zona euro dan meninkatnya keyakinan untuk dolar sebagai cadangan devisa utama dunia, ikut melemahkan daya tarik untuk aussie dan kiwi. Pasar akan mencari petunjuk dari sejumlah dari Inggris, Euro dan AS menjelang pertemuan negara BRIC hari ini.
Technical Analysis
(Hold buy 1.3810 & 1.3880 target 1.4050 stop di 1.3740) EUR-USD menunjukkan pola falling wedge di chart daily, didukung oleh pola candle three outside down dengan indikator Stochastic crossing down, MACD bullish dan ADX terkoreksi turun, menunjukkan momentum penurunan terbatas. Hitungan Elliot wave bahwa euro dolar dalam proses wave c dalam sub wave intermediate 4. Support berada di 1.3740 (support line)/1.3643 (uptrend support). Resistance di 1.3876 (50.0% fibonacci retracement)/1.4101 (downtrend ressistance). Sell 1.3650 target di 1.4000 stop 60p, buy break 1.3880 target 1.4100 stop 60p, buy 1.3730 target 1.4100 dibawah 1.3780. buy break 1.3990 target 1.4100.
(+90-20p) Dalam chart daily USDJPY menunjukkan signal negatif dari tembusnya rising wedge support dan pola candle three outside down, diikuti indikator ADX mulai rebound, MACD dan stochastic terkoreksi turun, seharusnya mendukun g strategi sell on rally sejak kemarin untuk target 95.65/94.00. Support berada di 95.65 (trendline)/96.69 (projeksi turun 100.0 FE). Trend berbabalik bearish jika hari ini ditutup dibawah diatas 97.51 (10 MA)/96.53 (200 MA). Sell 97.00 target 96.00 stop 98.80, sell 98.20 & 98.80 target 97.00 stop diatas 99.70, sell 99.70 target 98.00 stop 30p. buy 95.30 target 97.00. buy 94.00 target 97.00.
(Hold buy 1.6240 target 1.6550 stop 1.6240). GBPUSD masih mempertahankan trend bullish karena masih berada dalam pola rising wedge, didukung oleh indikator ADX daily terkoreksi turun, kendati pola candle menunjukkan three outside down dan indikator stochastic terkoreksi turun, seharusnya masih memperlihatkan pola range trading 1.60-1.66 dalam beberapa hari mendatang. Penutupan harga dibawah channel support di 1.5955 dan 50.0 fibonacci retracement 1.6614-1.5804 dapat memutarbalikan trend menjadi bearish untuk target 1.5751/1.5230. tetapi jika trendline resistance di 1.6598 berhasil ditembus, target 1.6661/1.6814. Analisa EW menunjukkan proses wave c dalam wave koreksi intemediate 4. Buy 1.6200 target 1.6550 stop 60p, buy break 1.6600 target 1.6810 stop 100p. Sell break 1.6140 target 1.5930 stop 50p. Sell 1.6810 target 1.6660 stop 50p. Buy 1.5960 target 1.6450 stop 50p. Hold buy 0.7960 target 0.8150 stop 0.7850).
AUD-USD mulai mendapatkan signal negatif dari tembusnya uptrend channel support di 0.7944 dan ditutup dibawah level tersebut, didukung oleh stochastic yang crossing down dan pola candle dark cloud cover yang menunjukkan potensi bearish reversal, selama gagal mencapai diatas 0.7990 (former support). Meski indikator ADX dan MACD menunjukkan potensi penurunan terbatas. Elliot wave menunjukkan proses wave c dalam wave intermediate 3. Buy 0.7860 target 0.8100, buy break 0.7990 target 0.8350 stop 50p. Buy 0.7760 target 0.8050 stop 60p, sell break 0.8100 target 0.7800 stop 50p.
81.05 89.62 (04/03) 78.59 (01/06) 1.3808 1.4337 (03/06) 1.2459 (04/03)
Dolar mengalami penguatan lebih lanjut untuk hari ke-3 terhadap mata uang Eropa hingga sesi Asia hari ini, meski melemah terhadap yen Jepang yang ikut menjadi safe haven setelah optimisme pemulihan ekonomi global mereda setelah laporan dari Jerman yang menunjukkan kondisi keuangan Jerman memburuk dan data NY PMI AS terkoreksi, diikuti meningkatnya optimisme untuk dolar AS setelah menteri keuangan Rusia dan Jepang dalam 2 sesi perdagangan terakhir memperlihatkan keyakinan untuk dolar AS sebagai mata uang untuk cadangan devisa global. Hal tersebut menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang saham dan komoditi global, yang mendorong terpuruknya pasar saham di Asia Pasifik dan komoditi global. Kemarin dolar menguat menjelang pertemuan negara BRIC hari ini, dimana sebelumnya IMF mempertahankan status dolar sebagai cadangan devisa global, dan lemahnya data Empire MFG bulan Juni (-9.4) dan laporan ECB menunjukkan bank di zona euro akan write down hutang sebesar US$ 283 miliar, tambahan dari US$ 366 miliar sejak pertengahan tahun 2007. Pasar akan mengamati pertemuan negara BRIC, data inflasi dan perumahan AS.
Euro terpuruk untuk hari ke-3 terhadap dolar, berkat meningkatnya sentimen negatif melanda euro sejak akhir pekan hingga hari ini, karena memburuknya kondisi ekonomi Euro, laporan bank di zona euro mengalami write down sebesar $ 283 miliar dan anjloknya data employment zona euro di kuartal pertama 2009 dimana sebelumnya data produksi industri euro mengalami rekor penurunan di bulan April, menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang euro. Euro kemarin melemah ke level terendah $ 1.3757 dan ke 1.3749 di sesi Asia hari ini, setelah bank sentral Eropa memperingkatkan dalam “financial stability review” bahwa bank-bank di zona euro mungkin akan mengalami kerugian sebesar US$ 283 miliar di tahun 2009/2010 karena resiko ke sektor finansial meningkat. Data employment payroll euro Q1 2009 mengalami rekor penurunan 0.8%. Lemahnya data ekonmi zona euro dan kekhawatiran kesehatan finansial euro, meredam permintaan untuk euro, menjelang pertemuan BRIC dan ZEW Sentimen Jerman hari ini, dimana dapat memberikan kejutan untuk penguatan euro.
USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
96.63 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.6269 1.6661 (03/06) 1.3502 (23/01)
Yen menguat terhadap dolar AS dan euro hari ini, setelah investor melakukan risk aversion kembali setelah optimisme pemulihan ekonomi global mereda berkat serangkaian sentimen negatif dari memburuknya kondisi ekonomi euro, terkoreksinya data manufaktur New York dan laporan ECB bahwa bank di zona euro akan mengalami kerugian finansial $ 288 miliar, meningkatkan kekhawatiran bahwa spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi global terlihat terlalu dini. Kondisi tersebut mendorong investor melakukan aksi profit-taking posisi long (buy) dolar yen, menjelang pertemuan BRIC (Brazil, Rusia, India dan China) hari ini, dimana menunggu pernyataan dari pejabat China mengenai isu diversifikasi cadangan devisa setelah China dilaporkan akan membeli obligasi IMF senilai US$ 50 miliar. Meski potensi penguatan yen terbatas karena menteri keuangan Jepang Kasuo Yosano menekankan kembali keyakinan sepenuhnya terhadap mata uang dolar AS sebagai cadangan devisa global. BOJ mempertahankan suku bunga 0.1% dan menjadi lebih optimis terhadap ekonomi, mendorong penguatan yen. Pasar akan mencari petunjuk dari data ekonomi Eropa dan AS hari ini.
Pound sterling melemah di sesi Asia hari ini terhadap dolar dan yen, karena investor melakukan risk aversion dan melakukan aksi profit-taking posisi long pound dolar karena meningkatnya sentimen negatif yang memicu kekhawatiran terhadap pemulihan ekonomi global, setelah laporan dari euro menunjukkan ekonomi dan potensi kerugian di bank di zona euro, menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang pound. Laporan dari Condeferation of British Industry Inggris mengatakan ekonomi tidak akan tumbuh hingga tahun depan. Pound juga terkoreksi setelah indeks saham FTSE 100 anjlok ke level terendah 3 pekan dan gilt (obligasi Inggris) menguat karena investor mencari safety ke obligasi pemerintah. CBI juga melaporkan BOE mungkin perlu mencetak lebih banyak uang untuk merangsang pertumbuhan. GDP diperkirakan akan merosot 0.3% di Q2 dan 0.1% di Q1, sebelum tidak ada pertumbuhan di kuartal empat tahun ini. Pasar akan mencari petunjuk dari sejumlah dari Inggris, Euro dan AS menjelang pertemuan negara BRIC hari ini.
KIE 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
10,200 12,150 (02/03) 9,900 (05/06) 0.7912 0.8263 (03/06) 0.6248 (02/02)
Kontrak Indeks Emas (USD-IDR) di sesi Asia hari ini melanjutkan penguatan ke level tertinggi 10,290 (Bloomberg) setelah investor global memburu aset yang tidak beresiko alias safe haven seperti dolar dan yen. Memburuknya kondisi ekonomi Eropa yang dapat meningkatkan kerugian finansial dan imbas penguatan indeks USD berkat keyakinan sepenuhnya untuk mata uang dolar sebagai cadangan deviasa global, meningkatkan permintaan untuk dolar rupiah. Aksi profit-taking di saham lokal (IHSG) ikut memberikan sentimen positif kepada KIE. Meski potensi penguatan KIE terbatas menjelang pertemuan negara BRIC hari ini dan menjelang debat calon presiden RI tanggal 18 Juni mendatang. Perkiraan range : 10,150-10,300 hingga sesi pagi besok.
Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) merosot ke level terendah 1 pekan terhadap dolar AS karena terpuruknya saham Asia Pasifik dan harga komoditas global (harga minyak mencapai di bawah $ 70/barel). Aussie anjlok ke level terendah 2-pekan terhadap yen karena minutes bank sentral Australia (RBA) menunjukkan pejabat mengatakan pandangan inflasi mendukung penurunan suku bunga lebih lanjut. Penguatan dolar terhadap mata uang Eropa karena kekhawatiran situasi finansial di zona euro dan meninkatnya keyakinan untuk dolar sebagai cadangan devisa utama dunia, ikut melemahkan daya tarik untuk aussie dan kiwi. Pasar akan mencari petunjuk dari sejumlah dari Inggris, Euro dan AS menjelang pertemuan negara BRIC hari ini.
Technical Analysis
(Hold buy 1.3810 & 1.3880 target 1.4050 stop di 1.3740) EUR-USD menunjukkan pola falling wedge di chart daily, didukung oleh pola candle three outside down dengan indikator Stochastic crossing down, MACD bullish dan ADX terkoreksi turun, menunjukkan momentum penurunan terbatas. Hitungan Elliot wave bahwa euro dolar dalam proses wave c dalam sub wave intermediate 4. Support berada di 1.3740 (support line)/1.3643 (uptrend support). Resistance di 1.3876 (50.0% fibonacci retracement)/1.4101 (downtrend ressistance). Sell 1.3650 target di 1.4000 stop 60p, buy break 1.3880 target 1.4100 stop 60p, buy 1.3730 target 1.4100 dibawah 1.3780. buy break 1.3990 target 1.4100.
(+90-20p) Dalam chart daily USDJPY menunjukkan signal negatif dari tembusnya rising wedge support dan pola candle three outside down, diikuti indikator ADX mulai rebound, MACD dan stochastic terkoreksi turun, seharusnya mendukun g strategi sell on rally sejak kemarin untuk target 95.65/94.00. Support berada di 95.65 (trendline)/96.69 (projeksi turun 100.0 FE). Trend berbabalik bearish jika hari ini ditutup dibawah diatas 97.51 (10 MA)/96.53 (200 MA). Sell 97.00 target 96.00 stop 98.80, sell 98.20 & 98.80 target 97.00 stop diatas 99.70, sell 99.70 target 98.00 stop 30p. buy 95.30 target 97.00. buy 94.00 target 97.00.
(Hold buy 1.6240 target 1.6550 stop 1.6240). GBPUSD masih mempertahankan trend bullish karena masih berada dalam pola rising wedge, didukung oleh indikator ADX daily terkoreksi turun, kendati pola candle menunjukkan three outside down dan indikator stochastic terkoreksi turun, seharusnya masih memperlihatkan pola range trading 1.60-1.66 dalam beberapa hari mendatang. Penutupan harga dibawah channel support di 1.5955 dan 50.0 fibonacci retracement 1.6614-1.5804 dapat memutarbalikan trend menjadi bearish untuk target 1.5751/1.5230. tetapi jika trendline resistance di 1.6598 berhasil ditembus, target 1.6661/1.6814. Analisa EW menunjukkan proses wave c dalam wave koreksi intemediate 4. Buy 1.6200 target 1.6550 stop 60p, buy break 1.6600 target 1.6810 stop 100p. Sell break 1.6140 target 1.5930 stop 50p. Sell 1.6810 target 1.6660 stop 50p. Buy 1.5960 target 1.6450 stop 50p. Hold buy 0.7960 target 0.8150 stop 0.7850).
AUD-USD mulai mendapatkan signal negatif dari tembusnya uptrend channel support di 0.7944 dan ditutup dibawah level tersebut, didukung oleh stochastic yang crossing down dan pola candle dark cloud cover yang menunjukkan potensi bearish reversal, selama gagal mencapai diatas 0.7990 (former support). Meski indikator ADX dan MACD menunjukkan potensi penurunan terbatas. Elliot wave menunjukkan proses wave c dalam wave intermediate 3. Buy 0.7860 target 0.8100, buy break 0.7990 target 0.8350 stop 50p. Buy 0.7760 target 0.8050 stop 60p, sell break 0.8100 target 0.7800 stop 50p.
Faktor Teknikal & Regional Picu Kejatuhan IHSG
Market Review
Imbas terkoreksinya harga komoditi dan indeks saham regional di tengah volume perdagangan mendorong investor melakukan aksi profit-taking di sejumlah saham grup Bakrie yang masih menanti hasil Mappi, saham komoditi dan industri. Meski IHSG sempat berfluktuasi dalam teritorial positif – negatif di sesi perdagangan pagi, berkat kenaikan saham TLKM yang mendapatkan keuntungan dari laporan pembeagian dividen Rp 296 dan saham perbankan yang mendapatkan keuntungan dari laporan laba bank nasional di awal tahun hingga bulan April naik 32% y/y, menahan laju penurunan IHSG lebih dalam. Kekhawatiran mengenai dampak kenaikan harga minyak dan lemahnya ekonomi Eropa, picu penurunan regional yang berimbas negatif ke IHSG. Indeks anjlok 21.068 poin (-1.008%), ditutup di 2,069.875 dengan nilai transaksi di BEI tercatat Rp 4.162 triliun. Investor asing mencatat net selling sebesar Rp 101.629 miliar dibandingkan net sell Rp 223.398 miliar hari Jumat (12/06).
Indeks saham di Asia-Pasifik terkoreksi dari level tertinggi 3 bulan, dimana 47% kenaikan indeks MSCI Asia-Pasifik meningkatkan kekhawatiran investor, saham terlalu mahal dibandingkan prospek pendapatan. Saham dan komoditi global terpukul setelah G8 berencana akan menghentikan belanja stimulus.
IHSG Outlook
Peluang kenaikan IHSG masih terbuka hari ini, karena penurunan indeks kemarin terlihat lemah karena tidak didukung oleh kenaikan volume dan sentimen negatif dari dalam negeri. Laporan penjualan otomotif Indonesia bulan Mei naik 3.5% menjadi 35.818 unit dan laporan Morgan Stanley: pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia mungkin melejit hingga 7% mulai tahun 2011 karena stabilnya politik dan kuatnya permintaan domestik memberikan bukti, Indonesia seharusnya masuk ke dalam ekonomi yang dinamakan negara BRIC (Brazil, Rusia, India dan China), menambah sejumlah sentimen positif yang telah angkat IHSG ke level tertinggi 8-bulan di 2,116.03 pekan lalu. Isu pembagian dividen (TLKM, ASRI, ADHI, HEXA) dan laporan kenaikan laba bank nasional Januari-April 2009, seharusnya memberikan support kepada IHSG. Meski terkoreksinya harga komoditi (koreksi minor dalam bull trend) dan pelemahan rupiah (ditutup Rp 10,120/US$), masih membebani bull trend IHSG.
Top Pick (BOW): BAKRIE (Hold: BUMI/BNBR/ENRG), Bimantara (Hold: MNCN/BMTR), ASII,TLKM,INKP, HEXA,INAF,KAEF,BMRI,ASRI.
Stock Picks:
* INAF
* MPPA
Global Outlook
Trend bullish indeks saham regional Asia dan AS terbebani oleh munculnya kekhawatiran terhadap ekonomi Eropa (memburuknya kondisi keuangan Jerman) dan penguatan dolar AS setelah pejabat Jepang dan Rusia yakin sepenuhnya terhadap status dolar AS tidak dapat tergantikan, meredakan kekhawatiran terhadap diversifikasi cadangan devisa bank sentral negara BRIC (brazil, Rusia, India dan China) yang akan mengadakan pertemuan hari ini, telah menurunkan daya tarik untuk harga komoditi (OPEC menurunkan prediksi permintaan global tahun ini, ekspor cpo Malaysia anjlok di bulan Mei). Hasil pertemuan G8 yang mungkin akan menarik stimulus, diikuti data payroll employment euro di Q1 2009, total flow TIC bulan April ($ -53.2 B) & NY PMI AS (-9.41) di bulan Juni, ikut membebani spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi global setelah data industri Jepang, China, AS dan Eropa tercatat lebih baik di pekan lalu dan perkiraan kenaikan data ZEW Jerman dan data perumahan, PPI, IP AS hari ini.
Technical Analysis:
Meski IHSG mendapatkan signal negatif dari pola candle three black crows (high realibility bearish reversal), tetapi momentum penurunan terlihat lemah karena indikator teknikal ADX terkoreksi turun, MACD masih bullish, trend volume menurun, penutupan kemarin masih diatas 2,062 (10-day MA), berada dalam formasi uptrend channel dalam diagonal triangle dan bertahan di atas lower channel 2,055, seharusnya mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas, selama tidak ditutup dibawah low 2,052, akan picu penurunan lebih lanjut. Hitungan Elliot Wave: indeks berada di wave b dalam minor 5 extended subwave impulse 3 dalam wave intermediate 4 / B, target di 2,165 (61.8 % Fibonacci retracement 1089-2835)/2,280 (161.8 FE). Support berada di 2,034/2,055. Resistance di 2,100/,2127.
Resistance: 2117.24/2105.40/2093.56/2085.32. PP 2077.09
Support : 2065.25/2045.17/2036.94/2016.86
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2,035-2,100)
Imbas terkoreksinya harga komoditi dan indeks saham regional di tengah volume perdagangan mendorong investor melakukan aksi profit-taking di sejumlah saham grup Bakrie yang masih menanti hasil Mappi, saham komoditi dan industri. Meski IHSG sempat berfluktuasi dalam teritorial positif – negatif di sesi perdagangan pagi, berkat kenaikan saham TLKM yang mendapatkan keuntungan dari laporan pembeagian dividen Rp 296 dan saham perbankan yang mendapatkan keuntungan dari laporan laba bank nasional di awal tahun hingga bulan April naik 32% y/y, menahan laju penurunan IHSG lebih dalam. Kekhawatiran mengenai dampak kenaikan harga minyak dan lemahnya ekonomi Eropa, picu penurunan regional yang berimbas negatif ke IHSG. Indeks anjlok 21.068 poin (-1.008%), ditutup di 2,069.875 dengan nilai transaksi di BEI tercatat Rp 4.162 triliun. Investor asing mencatat net selling sebesar Rp 101.629 miliar dibandingkan net sell Rp 223.398 miliar hari Jumat (12/06).
Indeks saham di Asia-Pasifik terkoreksi dari level tertinggi 3 bulan, dimana 47% kenaikan indeks MSCI Asia-Pasifik meningkatkan kekhawatiran investor, saham terlalu mahal dibandingkan prospek pendapatan. Saham dan komoditi global terpukul setelah G8 berencana akan menghentikan belanja stimulus.
IHSG Outlook
Peluang kenaikan IHSG masih terbuka hari ini, karena penurunan indeks kemarin terlihat lemah karena tidak didukung oleh kenaikan volume dan sentimen negatif dari dalam negeri. Laporan penjualan otomotif Indonesia bulan Mei naik 3.5% menjadi 35.818 unit dan laporan Morgan Stanley: pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia mungkin melejit hingga 7% mulai tahun 2011 karena stabilnya politik dan kuatnya permintaan domestik memberikan bukti, Indonesia seharusnya masuk ke dalam ekonomi yang dinamakan negara BRIC (Brazil, Rusia, India dan China), menambah sejumlah sentimen positif yang telah angkat IHSG ke level tertinggi 8-bulan di 2,116.03 pekan lalu. Isu pembagian dividen (TLKM, ASRI, ADHI, HEXA) dan laporan kenaikan laba bank nasional Januari-April 2009, seharusnya memberikan support kepada IHSG. Meski terkoreksinya harga komoditi (koreksi minor dalam bull trend) dan pelemahan rupiah (ditutup Rp 10,120/US$), masih membebani bull trend IHSG.
Top Pick (BOW): BAKRIE (Hold: BUMI/BNBR/ENRG), Bimantara (Hold: MNCN/BMTR), ASII,TLKM,INKP, HEXA,INAF,KAEF,BMRI,ASRI.
Stock Picks:
* INAF
* MPPA
Global Outlook
Trend bullish indeks saham regional Asia dan AS terbebani oleh munculnya kekhawatiran terhadap ekonomi Eropa (memburuknya kondisi keuangan Jerman) dan penguatan dolar AS setelah pejabat Jepang dan Rusia yakin sepenuhnya terhadap status dolar AS tidak dapat tergantikan, meredakan kekhawatiran terhadap diversifikasi cadangan devisa bank sentral negara BRIC (brazil, Rusia, India dan China) yang akan mengadakan pertemuan hari ini, telah menurunkan daya tarik untuk harga komoditi (OPEC menurunkan prediksi permintaan global tahun ini, ekspor cpo Malaysia anjlok di bulan Mei). Hasil pertemuan G8 yang mungkin akan menarik stimulus, diikuti data payroll employment euro di Q1 2009, total flow TIC bulan April ($ -53.2 B) & NY PMI AS (-9.41) di bulan Juni, ikut membebani spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi global setelah data industri Jepang, China, AS dan Eropa tercatat lebih baik di pekan lalu dan perkiraan kenaikan data ZEW Jerman dan data perumahan, PPI, IP AS hari ini.
Technical Analysis:
Meski IHSG mendapatkan signal negatif dari pola candle three black crows (high realibility bearish reversal), tetapi momentum penurunan terlihat lemah karena indikator teknikal ADX terkoreksi turun, MACD masih bullish, trend volume menurun, penutupan kemarin masih diatas 2,062 (10-day MA), berada dalam formasi uptrend channel dalam diagonal triangle dan bertahan di atas lower channel 2,055, seharusnya mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas, selama tidak ditutup dibawah low 2,052, akan picu penurunan lebih lanjut. Hitungan Elliot Wave: indeks berada di wave b dalam minor 5 extended subwave impulse 3 dalam wave intermediate 4 / B, target di 2,165 (61.8 % Fibonacci retracement 1089-2835)/2,280 (161.8 FE). Support berada di 2,034/2,055. Resistance di 2,100/,2127.
Resistance: 2117.24/2105.40/2093.56/2085.32. PP 2077.09
Support : 2065.25/2045.17/2036.94/2016.86
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2,035-2,100)
Potensi Penurunan Indeks Regional Terbatas
SSIU9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
10035 9805 10000 9705 10080 9845 10180 9470 9655 9770 10070 10255 10370
Commentary
Di chart 4 jam, trend bullish jangka pendek indeks SSIU9 terancam berbalik arah, setelah indeks ditutup dibawah trendline support di 9,940, dimana dapat mengarahkan indeks ke support berikutnya di 9826 (38.2 Fibonacci retracement 10180-9609)/9742 (23.6% FR), selama gagal ditutup diatas 9948 hari ini. Indikator teknikal ADX menunjukkan koreksi penurunan, stochastic dan MACD terkoreksi turun meski masih berada dalam teritorial bullish, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi penurunan indeks terbatas dalam 1-2 hari ini. Daily candle menunjukkan bearish engulfing (high realibility bearish reversal) membebani kinerja trend bullish indeks. Perkiraan range hari ini pada kisaran 9650-10000.
Rekomendasi : Buy 9610 & 9730 target 10,150 stop 100p, Sell 10,250 target 9800 stop 100p, Sell break 9960 target 9,750 stop 50p. Sell break 9560 target 9300 stop 60p.
KSU9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
179.95 176.5 180.4 175.5 181.2 178.1 182.2 173.9 176.0 178.0 182.0 184.1 186.1
Commentary
Dalam chart 4-jam, indeks KSU9 masih mempertahankan trend bullish karena masih berada dalam uptrend channel, meski indeks gagal untuk ke-5 kali dalam chart 4 jam ditutup diatas trendline resistance di 182.60. Indikator teknikal MACD dan stochastic yang crossing up, meski ADX terlihat meningkat, menunjukkan potensi kenaikan indeks masih terbuka pada hari ini. Indeks masih berada dalam pola symestrical triangle dengan resistance line berada di 187.15 (upper channel) dapat membatasi momentum kenaikan indeks dimana trend jangka menengah bullish, bilamana break target 191.8 (projeksi 161.8 FE). Tetapi jika indeks ditutup dibawah support line di 175.60, trend akan berbalik bearish, target 170.19. Perkiraan range hari ini: 175.00-181.50
Rekomendasi : Sell 180.20 target 177.0 stop 100p, Sell break 178.10 target 176.00. Buy 176.00 target 180.50. Sell break 172.00 target 167.50 stop 100p. Sell 183.00 tgt 177. (+100p)
HSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
18420 18125 18438 18025 18594 18203 18694 17805 18077 18279 18753 19025 19227
Commentary
Dalam chart 4 jam, trend bullish jangka pendek indeks terancam berbalik arah, jika indeks hari ini ditutup dibawah 17,970 (support line) untuk target 17756/16928 (200-MA), selama gagal ditutup diatas 18584 (resistance line). Indiaktor teknikal Adx menunjukkan koreksi kenaikan, stochastic crossing down, meski MACD masih berada di teritorial bullish. Daily candle menunjukkan evening star doji (medium realibility bearish reversal). Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks masih berada dalam wave motive (4) yang diperkirakan berakhir di 19,100 (wave 5???) dalam wave intermediate 3 - sub cycle B. Perkiraan range hari ini : 18.600-19.200.
Rekomendasi : Sell break 18,280 target 17970 (or closing) stop 100 p. sell break 17960 target 17.750 stop 50 poin. Buy 17750 target 18450 stop 100p. Sell 18575 target 18200 stop 100p. (-80+50p)
10035 9805 10000 9705 10080 9845 10180 9470 9655 9770 10070 10255 10370
Commentary
Di chart 4 jam, trend bullish jangka pendek indeks SSIU9 terancam berbalik arah, setelah indeks ditutup dibawah trendline support di 9,940, dimana dapat mengarahkan indeks ke support berikutnya di 9826 (38.2 Fibonacci retracement 10180-9609)/9742 (23.6% FR), selama gagal ditutup diatas 9948 hari ini. Indikator teknikal ADX menunjukkan koreksi penurunan, stochastic dan MACD terkoreksi turun meski masih berada dalam teritorial bullish, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi penurunan indeks terbatas dalam 1-2 hari ini. Daily candle menunjukkan bearish engulfing (high realibility bearish reversal) membebani kinerja trend bullish indeks. Perkiraan range hari ini pada kisaran 9650-10000.
Rekomendasi : Buy 9610 & 9730 target 10,150 stop 100p, Sell 10,250 target 9800 stop 100p, Sell break 9960 target 9,750 stop 50p. Sell break 9560 target 9300 stop 60p.
KSU9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
179.95 176.5 180.4 175.5 181.2 178.1 182.2 173.9 176.0 178.0 182.0 184.1 186.1
Commentary
Dalam chart 4-jam, indeks KSU9 masih mempertahankan trend bullish karena masih berada dalam uptrend channel, meski indeks gagal untuk ke-5 kali dalam chart 4 jam ditutup diatas trendline resistance di 182.60. Indikator teknikal MACD dan stochastic yang crossing up, meski ADX terlihat meningkat, menunjukkan potensi kenaikan indeks masih terbuka pada hari ini. Indeks masih berada dalam pola symestrical triangle dengan resistance line berada di 187.15 (upper channel) dapat membatasi momentum kenaikan indeks dimana trend jangka menengah bullish, bilamana break target 191.8 (projeksi 161.8 FE). Tetapi jika indeks ditutup dibawah support line di 175.60, trend akan berbalik bearish, target 170.19. Perkiraan range hari ini: 175.00-181.50
Rekomendasi : Sell 180.20 target 177.0 stop 100p, Sell break 178.10 target 176.00. Buy 176.00 target 180.50. Sell break 172.00 target 167.50 stop 100p. Sell 183.00 tgt 177. (+100p)
HSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
18420 18125 18438 18025 18594 18203 18694 17805 18077 18279 18753 19025 19227
Commentary
Dalam chart 4 jam, trend bullish jangka pendek indeks terancam berbalik arah, jika indeks hari ini ditutup dibawah 17,970 (support line) untuk target 17756/16928 (200-MA), selama gagal ditutup diatas 18584 (resistance line). Indiaktor teknikal Adx menunjukkan koreksi kenaikan, stochastic crossing down, meski MACD masih berada di teritorial bullish. Daily candle menunjukkan evening star doji (medium realibility bearish reversal). Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks masih berada dalam wave motive (4) yang diperkirakan berakhir di 19,100 (wave 5???) dalam wave intermediate 3 - sub cycle B. Perkiraan range hari ini : 18.600-19.200.
Rekomendasi : Sell break 18,280 target 17970 (or closing) stop 100 p. sell break 17960 target 17.750 stop 50 poin. Buy 17750 target 18450 stop 100p. Sell 18575 target 18200 stop 100p. (-80+50p)
Monday, June 15, 2009
Stocks Bear Market Rally Running Out of Steam Reversal Imminent
By: Andre_Gratian
Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCurrent Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Down! The very-long-term cycles have taken over and if they make their lows when expected, the bear market which started in October 2007 should continue until 2012-2014. This would imply that much lower prices lie ahead. SPX: Intermediate trend - The counter-trend rally which started on March 6 is still up, but losing momentum. Red flags are appearing in the A/D and the sentiment indicator. These are signals that normally precede a reversal. Daily market analysis of the short term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at ajg@cybertrails.com .
Overview:
The bear market secondary reaction is still intact, but it is losing momentum. A sideways consolidation in the SPX started on May 11 and lasted about two and a half weeks. After breaking out to a slightly higher level, the index quickly went back into another sideway pattern and closed on Friday only 16 points higher than where it was a month ago. There are now red flags appearing in several indicators which should lead to another pull-back or even to a full-fledged reversal. These red flags warn that each rally is now being met by more and more sellers, and the SPX will soon be in a position to challenge its uptrend line, as you will see on the charts, later. So far, the pull-backs have been gentle, coming in the form of shallow consolidations. At some point, one will turn into the beginning of a downtrend. The SPX has been traveling in a well-defined channel, so it should not be too difficult to identify when the trend has shifted. On Friday, it came very close to its uptrend line from the March low. There is a good chance that it will be broken next week, which would be more serious! Longer-term cycles favor a continuation of the uptrend into July, with the Bradley date of July 15 as a good target for a final high. How much higher? We will be better able to estimate this after the coming correction.
There are still many Elliott Wave analysts who think that this uptrend from March represents wave 4 of the decline which started in October 2007, and when we turn down, we should be going for new lows. With investor psychology having shifted more and more to the bullish side, it is becoming more difficult to conceive. But if this is still a bear market -- which I am convinced it is -- we have to make new lows! So, be prepared when this trend turns down decisively.
Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCurrent Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Down! The very-long-term cycles have taken over and if they make their lows when expected, the bear market which started in October 2007 should continue until 2012-2014. This would imply that much lower prices lie ahead. SPX: Intermediate trend - The counter-trend rally which started on March 6 is still up, but losing momentum. Red flags are appearing in the A/D and the sentiment indicator. These are signals that normally precede a reversal. Daily market analysis of the short term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at ajg@cybertrails.com .
Overview:
The bear market secondary reaction is still intact, but it is losing momentum. A sideways consolidation in the SPX started on May 11 and lasted about two and a half weeks. After breaking out to a slightly higher level, the index quickly went back into another sideway pattern and closed on Friday only 16 points higher than where it was a month ago. There are now red flags appearing in several indicators which should lead to another pull-back or even to a full-fledged reversal. These red flags warn that each rally is now being met by more and more sellers, and the SPX will soon be in a position to challenge its uptrend line, as you will see on the charts, later. So far, the pull-backs have been gentle, coming in the form of shallow consolidations. At some point, one will turn into the beginning of a downtrend. The SPX has been traveling in a well-defined channel, so it should not be too difficult to identify when the trend has shifted. On Friday, it came very close to its uptrend line from the March low. There is a good chance that it will be broken next week, which would be more serious! Longer-term cycles favor a continuation of the uptrend into July, with the Bradley date of July 15 as a good target for a final high. How much higher? We will be better able to estimate this after the coming correction.
There are still many Elliott Wave analysts who think that this uptrend from March represents wave 4 of the decline which started in October 2007, and when we turn down, we should be going for new lows. With investor psychology having shifted more and more to the bullish side, it is becoming more difficult to conceive. But if this is still a bear market -- which I am convinced it is -- we have to make new lows! So, be prepared when this trend turns down decisively.
Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's up trend continued last week and reached as high as 73.23 before turning sideway. With 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, initial bias is neutral this week. Some pull back might be seen to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 69.40). But after all, note that recent rally should still be in progress as long as 66.79 minor support holds. Above 73.23 will target 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next. On the downside, however, note bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Break of 66.79 support will argue that a short term top is at least formed and rise from 43.83 has likely completed. In such case, deeper decline should be seen to 56.07/60.08 support zone.
In the bigger picture, there is not clear sign of topping in crude oil yet and current rally might extend further to above 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. But after all, crude oil is clearly overbought in daily RSI and some consolidations should be around the corner. Strong resistance will likely be seen between 76.77 fibo resistance and next key level of 90, (50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.23) and at least bring some pull back. Meanwhile, in case of a correction, focus will turn 54.66 key medium term resistance turned support. As long as it holds, we'd continue to favor the rally from 33.20 to continue further. But a break of 54.66 will be an important indication that whole rise from 33.2 low has completed and should turn outlook bearish then.
In the long term picture, note that fall from 147.27 is treated as a correction, or part of the correction/consolidation to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. Downside target of 17.12/37.0 support zone is already met and the correction might have completed already. Sustained trading above mentioned 55 weeks and 55 months EMA will add some credence to this case and should target next key level of 90, (50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.23). This will remain the preferred case as long as crude oil continues to stay above 54.66 support.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's up trend continued last week and reached as high as 73.23 before turning sideway. With 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, initial bias is neutral this week. Some pull back might be seen to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 69.40). But after all, note that recent rally should still be in progress as long as 66.79 minor support holds. Above 73.23 will target 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next. On the downside, however, note bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Break of 66.79 support will argue that a short term top is at least formed and rise from 43.83 has likely completed. In such case, deeper decline should be seen to 56.07/60.08 support zone.
In the bigger picture, there is not clear sign of topping in crude oil yet and current rally might extend further to above 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. But after all, crude oil is clearly overbought in daily RSI and some consolidations should be around the corner. Strong resistance will likely be seen between 76.77 fibo resistance and next key level of 90, (50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.23) and at least bring some pull back. Meanwhile, in case of a correction, focus will turn 54.66 key medium term resistance turned support. As long as it holds, we'd continue to favor the rally from 33.20 to continue further. But a break of 54.66 will be an important indication that whole rise from 33.2 low has completed and should turn outlook bearish then.
In the long term picture, note that fall from 147.27 is treated as a correction, or part of the correction/consolidation to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. Downside target of 17.12/37.0 support zone is already met and the correction might have completed already. Sustained trading above mentioned 55 weeks and 55 months EMA will add some credence to this case and should target next key level of 90, (50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.23). This will remain the preferred case as long as crude oil continues to stay above 54.66 support.
Gold Weekly Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's decline from 992.1 resumed last week after brief consolidation. Initial bias remains on the downside and further decline should be seen towards 915.2 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 865.6 to 922.1 at 913.9). Break there will confirm that whole rise from 865 has completed and should then bring retest of this low. On the upside, though, above 963.9 will indicate that fall from 992.1 has completed and will turn short term outlook bullish for 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone again.
In the bigger picture, recent development argues that rise from 865 has possibly completed at 992.1 already, ahead of 1007.7/1033.9 key resistance zone. Also it suggests that consolidation from 1007.7 is still in progress and break of 915.2 support will bring the third leg down to test 865 support before completing the whole consolidation. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) and bring resumption of rise from 681. On the upside, though, above 992.1 will revive the case that rise from 865 is resumption of up trend rather than part of sideway consolidation. In such case, retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance should be seen next.
In the long term picture, medium term consolidation from 1033.9 should have completed as an expanding triangle to 681 already. Rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 253 and will target 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 after taking out 1033.9 high. However, a break below mentioned 801.5 cluster support will argue that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will delay the long term bullish case.
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's decline from 992.1 resumed last week after brief consolidation. Initial bias remains on the downside and further decline should be seen towards 915.2 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 865.6 to 922.1 at 913.9). Break there will confirm that whole rise from 865 has completed and should then bring retest of this low. On the upside, though, above 963.9 will indicate that fall from 992.1 has completed and will turn short term outlook bullish for 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone again.
In the bigger picture, recent development argues that rise from 865 has possibly completed at 992.1 already, ahead of 1007.7/1033.9 key resistance zone. Also it suggests that consolidation from 1007.7 is still in progress and break of 915.2 support will bring the third leg down to test 865 support before completing the whole consolidation. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) and bring resumption of rise from 681. On the upside, though, above 992.1 will revive the case that rise from 865 is resumption of up trend rather than part of sideway consolidation. In such case, retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance should be seen next.
In the long term picture, medium term consolidation from 1033.9 should have completed as an expanding triangle to 681 already. Rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 253 and will target 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 after taking out 1033.9 high. However, a break below mentioned 801.5 cluster support will argue that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will delay the long term bullish case.
Commodities And The US Dollar: What’s The Relationship?
By Bryan Rich on June 15, 2009 | More Posts By Bryan Rich
The dollar can’t manage to find its way out of the limelight these days. There’s speculation about its demise and the loss of its world reserve currency status. It’s even blamed for higher gas prices.
Moreover, the mainstream media has attributed much of the recent climb in commodity prices to recent weakness in the dollar. On the surface, it’s a logical enough argument. After all, commodities like gold, oil, and grains are all priced in dollars. Therefore, if the dollar weakens the value of the commodity shouldn’t be penalized. With that logic, it should strengthen to maintain its value on the global stage.So all things remaining equal, the commodity should move in the directly proportional opposite direction of the dollar.
The only problem with this argument is that all things never remain equal …
As the dollar rallied last week, so did the price of oil.Market analysts, traders and journalists will always go to the stable of cause-and-effect market relationships to explain the day-to-day moves in financial markets.For instance, weeks ago it was the weakness in U.S. Treasury bonds that was weakening the dollar. Then last week, it was the weakness in Treasury bonds that was strengthening the dollar. And now, the recovery in commodity prices over the last fourteen weeks is being linked to a weak dollar. But as the dollar rallied last week, so did oil - a contradiction to this relationship.
The dollar can’t manage to find its way out of the limelight these days. There’s speculation about its demise and the loss of its world reserve currency status. It’s even blamed for higher gas prices.
Moreover, the mainstream media has attributed much of the recent climb in commodity prices to recent weakness in the dollar. On the surface, it’s a logical enough argument. After all, commodities like gold, oil, and grains are all priced in dollars. Therefore, if the dollar weakens the value of the commodity shouldn’t be penalized. With that logic, it should strengthen to maintain its value on the global stage.So all things remaining equal, the commodity should move in the directly proportional opposite direction of the dollar.
The only problem with this argument is that all things never remain equal …
As the dollar rallied last week, so did the price of oil.Market analysts, traders and journalists will always go to the stable of cause-and-effect market relationships to explain the day-to-day moves in financial markets.For instance, weeks ago it was the weakness in U.S. Treasury bonds that was weakening the dollar. Then last week, it was the weakness in Treasury bonds that was strengthening the dollar. And now, the recovery in commodity prices over the last fourteen weeks is being linked to a weak dollar. But as the dollar rallied last week, so did oil - a contradiction to this relationship.
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