SSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
9755 9610 9805 9510 9805 9655 9905 9525 9575 9655 9785 9835 9915
Commentary
Secara teknikal, SSIM9 berada dalam trend bullish setelah menembus menembus downtrend line di descending triangle di chart 4 jam, memberikan signal positif untuk indeks, yang didukung oleh indikator 4-jam ADX trending up, stochastic golden cross, MACD uptrend dan pola candle bullish continuation, seharusnya masih mempertahankan momentum bullish di awal pekan ini. Indeks memiliki support di 9774 (former resistance)/9,517. Sementara resistance berada di 9982 (100.0 FE)/10,004 (uptrend line)/10,206 (161.8 FE) seharusnya masih menopang kinerja uptrend indeks dalam beberapa hari mendatang. Perkiraan range hari ini pada kisaran 9,700-10,000.
Rekomendasi : Sell break 9770 target 10,000 stop 50p, Sell 10,000 target 9800 stop 100p, Buy 9,620 target 9770 stop 30p. Sell break 9590 target 9220 stop 60p.
KSM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
174.90 176.5 179.7 175.5 180.4 177.3 181.4 168.4 171.5 173.2 178.0 181.1 182.8
Commentary
Secara teknikal, dalam chart 4 jam KSM9 masih berada dalam kondisi uptrend, selama masih ditutup diatas 175.27 (uptrend line), meski terancam bearish jika ditutup dibawah level tersebut mengikuti indikator teknikal stochastic yang bearish, MACD bearish, ADX menunjukkan kenaikan menunjukkan momentum kenaikan masih terbuka. Pola candle daily menunjukkan pola bullish harami setelah sebelumnya menunjukkan pola three black crows yang membuka peluang kenaikan pada hari ini. Sementara trend daily dapat berbalik bearish jika indeks ditutup dibawah 175.25, target 171.70 (100.0 FE)/169.08 (support line)/164.90 (161.8 FE). Resistance berada di 178.55/183.15 (downtrend line). Perkiraan range hari ini: 175.00-180.00
Rekomendasi : Sell break 175.10 target 172.60 stop 100p, sell 180.80 target 177.50. Buy 172.60 target 176.50. Buy break 179.00 target 180.80 stop 100p. Buy 168.50 tgt 176 (+240p)
HSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
18353 18125 18594 18025 18672 18281 18772 17660 17856 18105 18550 18746 18995
Commentary
Secara teknikal, indeks masih berada dalam trend bullish selama berada diatas 17.883 (uptrend line) untuk target 190005 (61.8 FE) dalam formasi uptrend channel, yang seharusnya masih membatasi potensi penurunan hari ini. Indikator teknikal ADX menunjukkan trend penurunan di saat harga terkoreksi dari tertinggi 18931, stochastic menunjukkan pola dead cross, dan MACD masih uptrend, menunjukkan perkiraan momentum penurunan terbatas. Daily candle menunjukkan pola hanging man, seharusnya mendukung kenaikan ke level tertinggi 18931/19468 (upper channel). Suppotr berada di 17959 (10- day MA)/17883 Perkiraan range hari ini : 18.400-18.900.
Rekomendasi : Buy 18285 target 18660 (or closing) stop 100 p. Sell break 18030 target 17880 stop 60 poin. Buy 17880 target 18360 stop 100p. Sell 18900 target 18500 stop 50p. Sell 19000 target 18660 on closing stop 100p. (-100p)
Friday, June 5, 2009
Daily Technical Analysis Forex & Gold
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by ecPulse.com
EURO
After the Euro versus the Dollar pair attempted to breach the pivot support at 1.4105, the pair rebounded back to the upside sharply after Trichet's speech. Trading remains limited among the 1.4105and 1.4245 levels which will determine the next intraday trend as we believe the pair is to attempt to breach the resistance level to the upside to continue the short term trend targeting 1.4710 as far as 1.3910 remains intact. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3910 and the key resistance at 1.4620. The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets at 1.2120.
Support: 1.4160, 1.4105, 1.4080, 1.4030, 1.3980
Resistance: 1.4225, 1.4245, 1.4320, 1.4395, 1.4440
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.4105 with targets at 1.4025 and 1.3910 and stop loss with fourh our closing above 1.4220
GBP
After mixed trading yesterday, the Cable decline towards our initial target at 1.6075 where we still believe the intraday trend is to the downside with the next target at the key support for the major upside channel at 1.5275 yet the short term trend remains to the downside. Note that the NFP is on queue at 12:30 GMT which may result in volatile trading. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.5725 and the key resistance at 1.6660. The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4840 remains intact with targets at 1.6600.
Support: 1.6075, 1.6015, 1.5945, 1.5875, 1.5810
Resistance: 1.6155, 1.6200, 1.6285, 1.6360, 1.6430
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.6075 with targets at 1.5945 and stop loss with four hour closing above 1.6155
JPY
The USD/JPY pair continued to incline towards our suggested target currently at 97.45 where we expect the pair is to reverse to the downside from this level to reach the short term targets at 93.40 after the breach of 95.35. The 97.70 level must remain intact for the decline to continue. The trading range for today is among the key support at 91.90 and the key resistance at 99.40. The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60
Support: 96.45, 95.90, 95.35, 94.75, 94.50
Resistance: 97.45, 97.70, 98.10, 98.85, 99.55
Recommendation According to our analysis, sell the pair below 97.45 with targets at 96.45 and stop loss with four hour closing above 98.10
CHF
The 1.0745 was able to limit gains for the Dollar versus Swissy pair. We currently see the possibility of a formation of a bullish technical pattern with a neckline at the above mentioned level where we expect the pair is to attempt to breach this level to the upside on the intraday basis to incline towards the key resistance for the downside channel at 1.0910. The short term trend remains to the downside as far as 1.0910 is intact. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0450 and the key resistance at 1.0910. The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact with targets at 1.2245.
Support: 1.0635, 1.0555, 1.0500, 1.0470, 1.0450
Resistance: 1.0745, 1.0800, 1.0860, 1.0910, 1.0980
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.0745 with targets at 1.0910 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.0635.
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
Rupee: Rupee weakened to 47.32 before closing at 47.18. The local unit is consolidating above 47.00 levels. The overall outlook continues to remain strong for Rupee and breaking of 46.80 support can pave way for 46.00. Exporters should look for opportunities to sell around 47.50-60 levels. (USD/INR : 47.08). Medium Term Bullish.
Euro: Euro fell to 1.4069 taking support around the 55 4-hourly EMA and closing at 1.4175. ECB left key rates unchanged at 1% yesterday. The daily and 4-hourly charts indicate a downside bias with strong support remaining at 1.4070. Breaking of that support will confirm a short term top is in place at 1.4337 and will bring a deeper pull-back upto1.3890 (21 Daily EMA). Buying around those levels is suggested for 100-150 pips. (Eur/Usd:1.4189). Bullish above 1.3750.
Pound: Cable remained volatile in 350 pips falling to the lows of 1.6082. BoE kept the benchmark interest rates unchanged at 0.5% yesterday. The reversal bar of bearish divergence received confirmation yesterday with the charts continuing to indicate further downside which could lead Sterling towards 1.5815 (21 Daily EMA). The trend however remains strong with no clear trend reversal signs. Longs can be considered around 1.5850 levels for 150 - 200 pips. (Gbp/Usd: 1.6080). Short term Bullish
Yen: Dollar-Yen pair is hovering near the cluster EMA of 96.65. On the upside the first resistance comes in around 97.27 (200 daily EMA) and then 99.30 levels (55 Weekly EMA). Short positions in the pair around those levels can be considered(USD/JPY 96.72).Bearish
Australian Dollar: Aussie recouped its losses after hitting 0.7880 low and closing above the 0.8000 mark. The daily and 4-hourly charts are still indicating a downside, however, the same could be curbed around 0.7850 levels (100 4-Hourly EMA & 50% Retracement of the recent rally). Thus, buying can be considered at the dips around 0.7850-0.7900 for 100 pips. (Aud/Usd: 0.8040).Bullish
Gold: Gold witnessed sideways trading recovering from $960 to $981 yesterday. We maintain our bullish bias in Gold, thus consider longs around $965 (55 4-hourly EMA) and further around $948 (21 Daily EMA) can be considered for $15-$18. (Gold- $976.80). Bullish
Dollar Index: DX closely touched 80 yesterday taking the falling trendline resistance. It is currently trading at 79.42 with stochastic being neutral to bearish. Support remains at 77.60 levels. Overall Bearish. (DI- 79.42)
EURO
After the Euro versus the Dollar pair attempted to breach the pivot support at 1.4105, the pair rebounded back to the upside sharply after Trichet's speech. Trading remains limited among the 1.4105and 1.4245 levels which will determine the next intraday trend as we believe the pair is to attempt to breach the resistance level to the upside to continue the short term trend targeting 1.4710 as far as 1.3910 remains intact. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3910 and the key resistance at 1.4620. The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets at 1.2120.
Support: 1.4160, 1.4105, 1.4080, 1.4030, 1.3980
Resistance: 1.4225, 1.4245, 1.4320, 1.4395, 1.4440
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.4105 with targets at 1.4025 and 1.3910 and stop loss with fourh our closing above 1.4220
GBP
After mixed trading yesterday, the Cable decline towards our initial target at 1.6075 where we still believe the intraday trend is to the downside with the next target at the key support for the major upside channel at 1.5275 yet the short term trend remains to the downside. Note that the NFP is on queue at 12:30 GMT which may result in volatile trading. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.5725 and the key resistance at 1.6660. The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4840 remains intact with targets at 1.6600.
Support: 1.6075, 1.6015, 1.5945, 1.5875, 1.5810
Resistance: 1.6155, 1.6200, 1.6285, 1.6360, 1.6430
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.6075 with targets at 1.5945 and stop loss with four hour closing above 1.6155
JPY
The USD/JPY pair continued to incline towards our suggested target currently at 97.45 where we expect the pair is to reverse to the downside from this level to reach the short term targets at 93.40 after the breach of 95.35. The 97.70 level must remain intact for the decline to continue. The trading range for today is among the key support at 91.90 and the key resistance at 99.40. The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60
Support: 96.45, 95.90, 95.35, 94.75, 94.50
Resistance: 97.45, 97.70, 98.10, 98.85, 99.55
Recommendation According to our analysis, sell the pair below 97.45 with targets at 96.45 and stop loss with four hour closing above 98.10
CHF
The 1.0745 was able to limit gains for the Dollar versus Swissy pair. We currently see the possibility of a formation of a bullish technical pattern with a neckline at the above mentioned level where we expect the pair is to attempt to breach this level to the upside on the intraday basis to incline towards the key resistance for the downside channel at 1.0910. The short term trend remains to the downside as far as 1.0910 is intact. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0450 and the key resistance at 1.0910. The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact with targets at 1.2245.
Support: 1.0635, 1.0555, 1.0500, 1.0470, 1.0450
Resistance: 1.0745, 1.0800, 1.0860, 1.0910, 1.0980
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.0745 with targets at 1.0910 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.0635.
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
Rupee: Rupee weakened to 47.32 before closing at 47.18. The local unit is consolidating above 47.00 levels. The overall outlook continues to remain strong for Rupee and breaking of 46.80 support can pave way for 46.00. Exporters should look for opportunities to sell around 47.50-60 levels. (USD/INR : 47.08). Medium Term Bullish.
Euro: Euro fell to 1.4069 taking support around the 55 4-hourly EMA and closing at 1.4175. ECB left key rates unchanged at 1% yesterday. The daily and 4-hourly charts indicate a downside bias with strong support remaining at 1.4070. Breaking of that support will confirm a short term top is in place at 1.4337 and will bring a deeper pull-back upto1.3890 (21 Daily EMA). Buying around those levels is suggested for 100-150 pips. (Eur/Usd:1.4189). Bullish above 1.3750.
Pound: Cable remained volatile in 350 pips falling to the lows of 1.6082. BoE kept the benchmark interest rates unchanged at 0.5% yesterday. The reversal bar of bearish divergence received confirmation yesterday with the charts continuing to indicate further downside which could lead Sterling towards 1.5815 (21 Daily EMA). The trend however remains strong with no clear trend reversal signs. Longs can be considered around 1.5850 levels for 150 - 200 pips. (Gbp/Usd: 1.6080). Short term Bullish
Yen: Dollar-Yen pair is hovering near the cluster EMA of 96.65. On the upside the first resistance comes in around 97.27 (200 daily EMA) and then 99.30 levels (55 Weekly EMA). Short positions in the pair around those levels can be considered(USD/JPY 96.72).Bearish
Australian Dollar: Aussie recouped its losses after hitting 0.7880 low and closing above the 0.8000 mark. The daily and 4-hourly charts are still indicating a downside, however, the same could be curbed around 0.7850 levels (100 4-Hourly EMA & 50% Retracement of the recent rally). Thus, buying can be considered at the dips around 0.7850-0.7900 for 100 pips. (Aud/Usd: 0.8040).Bullish
Gold: Gold witnessed sideways trading recovering from $960 to $981 yesterday. We maintain our bullish bias in Gold, thus consider longs around $965 (55 4-hourly EMA) and further around $948 (21 Daily EMA) can be considered for $15-$18. (Gold- $976.80). Bullish
Dollar Index: DX closely touched 80 yesterday taking the falling trendline resistance. It is currently trading at 79.42 with stochastic being neutral to bearish. Support remains at 77.60 levels. Overall Bearish. (DI- 79.42)
Ketidakpastian Politik Inggris & Payroll AS Picu Penguatan Dolar AS
USD Index 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low EUR-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
79.36 89.62 (04/03) 78.59 (01/06) 1.4176 1.4337 (03/06) 1.2459 (04/03)
Dolar AS mengalami penguatan lebih lanjut terhadap dolar di sesi Asia hari ini, setelah data ekonomi AS semalam memberikan bukti bahwa pemulihan ekonomi AS akan memberikan momentum kepada investor dan aksi profit-taking menjelang rilisan data pengangguran AS yang mencapai level tertinggi 25 tahun, berpotensi memicu risk aversion diantara investor global. Isu mundurnya Perdana Menteri Inggris Gordon Brown dan sesuai dengan perkiraan keputusan bank sentral Eropa dan Inggris yang mempertahankan suku bunga kemarin, ikut menguatkan dolar terhadap euro dan pound. Dolar juga menguat terhadap yen berkat aksi profit-taking posisi short yen menjelang rilisan data payroll dan unemployment AS. Meski potensi penguatan dolar terbatas berkat spekulasi sejumlah negara mempertimbangkan alternatif untuk mata uang cadangan devisa yang baru dan isu penurunan rating kredit AAA milik AS dapat menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang dolar AS dalam waktu dekat. Sebelumnya data Jobless Claims AS tercatat 621K di pekan lalu dari revisi 623K. Trend penguatan saham dan komoditi global, masih berperan membebani kinerja USD dalam waktu dekat ini, dimana penguatan dolar saat ini hanya karena technical rebound dari kondisi oversold dan aksi profit-taking setelah terpuruk tajam di pekan ini. Pasar akan mengamati data tenaga kerja AS, dimana dapat mendorong risk aversion jika data tercatat di bawah perkiraan pasar.
Euro masih mendapatkan tekanan di sesi Asia hari ini, meski ECB kemarin tetap mempertahankan suku bunga dan Presiden ECB Trichet mengatakan penampilan ekonomi regional akan membaik ditahun ini, di samping data jobless claims AS semalam memicu spekulasi bahwa sektor tenaga kerja telah mencapai bottom, mendorong aksi pemburuan dolar. Tekanan jual yang kuat di pound dolar berkat laporan Perdana Menteri Inggris Gordon Brown berencana mundur dalam waktu dekat, dimana dapat mengganggu proses pemulihan ekonomi Inggris dan tentunya Eropa, memberikan sentimen negatif kepada euro dolar. Euro juga terpukul akibat aksi profit-taking posisi long euro oleh trader dan investor menghadapi data Non Farm Payroll dan Unemployment AS. Meski potensi penurunan euro terbatas karena euro masih mendapatkan keuntungan dari trend kenaikan pasar saham dan komoditi global, yang dapat menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang dolar AS, diikuti kekhawatiran mengenai isu rating kredit AS dan sejumlah negara yang berkeinginan membentuk cadangan mata uang yang baru untuk menandingi dolar AS. Euro dapat melanjutkan keterpurukan jika data tenaga kerja AS tercatat memburuk di bulan Mei, dimana mendorong investor melakukan risk aversion yang menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang euro.
USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
96.08 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.6302 1.6661 (03/06) 1.3502 (23/01)
Yen melemah untuk hari ke-3 terhadap dolar di sesi Asia hari ini, berkat aksi profit-taking posisi short yen menjelang rilisan data tenaga kerja AS yang dapat memberikan bukti proses pemulihan ekonomi global berjalan lancar dan kondisi teknikal USD yang oversold, menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang yen. Laporan investor Jepang masih meningkatkan pembelian aset di luar negeri untuk mendapatkan keuntungan yang lebih tinggi dan imbas penguatan dolar terhadap euro dan pound berkat isu penurunan rating kredit Inggris dan isu rencana mundurnya Perdana Menteri Gordon Brown, memberikan alasan untuk melepas posisi short yen saat ini. Meski potensi pelemahan yen terbatas karena penguatan dolar saat ini bukan berdasarkan fundamental ekonomi AS, di tengah kekhawatiran mengenai beban hutang pemerintah AS dan isu penurunan rating hutang AS yang dapat membebani kinerja dolar terhadap yen. Indeks saham Nikkei 225 stock average di sesi Asia hari ini menguat 60.11 poin (0.62%), berperan menahan laju pelemahan yen terhadap dolar. Yen dapat melemah lebih lanjut, jika ada signal pemulihan ekonomi global dari data tenaga kerja AS, karean investor Jepang akan membeli aset lebih banyak di luar negeri yang dapat menghasilkan keuntungan yang lebih tinggi.
Pound sterling mengalami tekanan lebih lanjut terhadap dolar AS, berkat sentimen negatif dari Perdana Menteri Berniat untuk mundur setelah sejumlah menteri di kabinet mengajukan pengunduran-diri, telah menjatuhkan pound ke level terendah 1.6055 di sesi Asia hari ini. Kondisi teknikal pound yang overbought dan menjelang data tenaga kerja AS pada hari ini, mendorong Pound terkoreksi dari level tertinggi 1.6661 pada hari Rabu (03/06). BOE kemarin mempertahankan suku bunga dan tidak melanjutkan pembelian obligasi negara. Meski potensi penurunan pound dapat dibatasi kekhawatiran mengenai isu penurunan rating kredit oleh Moodys dan spekulasi sejumlah negara berencana membuat mata uang cadangan devisa alternatif tandingan untuk dolar AS, dimana dapat memberikan technical rebound untuk pound pada hari ini. Meningkatnya ketidakpastian mengenai situasi politik di Inggris, akibat tereksposnya belanja pribadi oleh anggota parlemen yang memicu 4 menteri Inggris mundur dan poling ICM menunjukkan Partai Berkuasa Labour Party berada di peringkat 3 dalam pemilu hari ini, masih membebani kinerja pound terhadap dolar dan euro.
USD-CHF 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
1.0681 1.1965 (12/03) 1.0592 (02/06) 0.8005 0.8263 (03/06) 0.6248 (02/02)
Swiss franc mengalami tekanan lebih lanjut terhadap dolar di sesi Asia hari ini, setelah data ekonomi AS semalam memberikan bukti bahwa pemulihan ekonomi AS akan memberikan momentum kepada investor dan aksi profit-taking menjelang rilisan data pengangguran AS yang mencapai level tertinggi 25 tahun, berpotensi memicu risk aversion diantara investor global. Isu mundurnya Perdana Menteri Inggris Gordon Brown dan sesuai dengan perkiraan keputusan bank sentral Eropa dan Inggris yang mempertahankan suku bunga kemarin, ikut menguatkan dolar terhadap euro dan pound. Meski potensi pelemahan CHF terbatas berkat spekulasi sejumlah negara mempertimbangkan alternatif untuk mata uang cadangan devisa yang baru dan isu penurunan rating kredit AAA milik AS dapat meningkatkan daya tarik untuk memegang CHF dalam waktu dekat. Pasar akan mengamati data tenaga kerja AS, dimana dapat mendorong risk aversion jika data tercatat di bawah perkiraan pasar. kembali mengamati testimony Fed Bernanke, pertemuan ECB & BOE.
Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) mengalami koreksi penurunan di sesi Asia hari ini, setelah laporan Rio Tinto Group dan BHP Biliton mengatakan mereka akan membuat joint venture untuk batu besi di Australia Selatan. Aussie dan kiwi menguat terhadap yen setelah Presiden ECB Trichet kemarin mengatakan penampilan ekonomi regional akan membaik di tahun ini. Aussie menguat setelah BHP Biliton yang bermarkas di Melbourne, perusahaan tambang terbesar di dunia, setuju membayar Rio Tinto $ 5.8 miliar untuk menciptakan aset perusahaan iron ore (pasir besi) Australia Barat. Rio mengatakan perusahaan akan meningkatkan dana dari right issue setelah menolak $ 19.5 miliar dari Aluminium Corp dari China. Aussie juga menguat karena aktifitas building meningkat di bulan Mei ke level tertinggi, memberikan bukti ekonomi akan melampaui negara maju di tahun di tahun 2009 setelah meningkat di Q1 2009. Pasar akan mengamati data tenaga kerja AS hari ini.
Technical Analysis
(-30-50p) EUR-USD masih berada dalam trend bullish karena berada dalam uptrend channel, kendati mendapatkan signal negatif dari pola head on shoulder dengan neckline di 1.4105 (false break???) dan pola candle daily evening star di daily chart dapat menahan laju penurunan euro. Indikator Stochastic menunjukkan golden cross dan MACD masih uptrend, diikuti ADX menunjukkan flat di level 15 seharusnya mendukung potensi penurunan euro terbatas. Support di 1.4133 (support line)/1.4105 (neckline H&S)/1.4063 (50.0 FR 1.4336-1.3792). Resistance di 1.4302 (100.0 FE))/1.4430 (Uptrend line). Euro telah menyelesaikan wave minute 5 untuk menjadi wave koreksi a dalam wave intermediate 4. Buy 1.4070 target di 1.4300 stop 60p, buy break 1.4340 target 1.4450 stop 60p, Sell 1.4450 target 1.4300 stop 50p. Buy break 1.4250 target 1.4330 stop 50p.
(+30p) USDJPY masih menunjukkan pola head & shoulder dan downtrend channel, meski telah menembus upper channel di 96.35 kemarin yang memberikan momentum bullish kepada jpy untuk target 98.22 (resistance line). Sementara pola congestion masih terlihat di daily chart. Indikator ADX terangkat naik, stochastic crossing up bullish meski MACD masih berada di teritorial negatif, menunjukkan range trading 95-97 akan break hari ini. Jika ditutup diatas level 95.84 (10-day MA) target 98.22/98.35 (100.0 FE). Jika hari ini ditutup diatas 96.89 (200-day MA) dapat menetralkan tekanan bearish, dan memutarbalikkan trend menjadi bullish dari netral. Sell 97.20 target 96.00 stop 97.40, sell break 95.90 target 95.00 stop 50p. Buy break 97.35 target 98.30, sell 98.30 target 96.90.
(+120p-30p). Trend bullish GBP-USD terancam saat ini, dari tembusnya downtrend line di 1.6110 dalam pola ascending triangle di chart 4 jam dan pola downtrend channel minor yang seharusnya memberikan momentum bearish. Meski GBP masih mendapatkan support dari pola broadening bullish dengan support 1.5880. Daily chart juga menunjukkan potensi membentuk pola candle three black crows jika ditutup dibawah 1.6112 (rejection high di 4 jam), dapat memperburuk pandangan teknikal GBP-USD pekan depan. Indikator teknikal ADX trending up, mendukung potensi penuurunan lebih lanjut, didukung MACD & Stochastic 4 jam yang bearish. Analisa EW menunjukkan proses wave motive minute 5 telah selesai dan dalam wave impulse 3. Buy break 1.6120 target 1.6240 stop 60p. Buy break 1.6440 target 1.6580 stop 50p. Buy 1.5980 target 1.6250 stop 100p. Buy break 1.6250 target 1.6400 stop 50p. Sell break 1.5870 target 1.5560.
(-50-50p) AUD-USD masih berada dalam trend bullish selama masih bertahan di atas downtrend line 0.7902 dengan pola candle evening star kemarin didukung oleh ADX terkoreksi turun dari kondisi overbought, stochastic dan MACD yang masih uptrend, seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan aud hari ini. Meski trend masih bullish selama bertahan di atas 0.7902 (support line di ascending triangle), untuk target 0.8263 (61.8 FE & high kemarin))/0.8449 (100.0 FE). Elliot wave menunjukkan koreksi motive wave 4 dalam wave intermediate C. Buy break 0.8090 target 0.8250 stop 50p, Buy break 0.8060 target 0.8160 (closing) stop 50p, Sell 0.8180 target 0.8050 stop 50p. Buy break 0.8290 target 0.8430, sell break 0.7990 target 0.7890 stop 50p.
79.36 89.62 (04/03) 78.59 (01/06) 1.4176 1.4337 (03/06) 1.2459 (04/03)
Dolar AS mengalami penguatan lebih lanjut terhadap dolar di sesi Asia hari ini, setelah data ekonomi AS semalam memberikan bukti bahwa pemulihan ekonomi AS akan memberikan momentum kepada investor dan aksi profit-taking menjelang rilisan data pengangguran AS yang mencapai level tertinggi 25 tahun, berpotensi memicu risk aversion diantara investor global. Isu mundurnya Perdana Menteri Inggris Gordon Brown dan sesuai dengan perkiraan keputusan bank sentral Eropa dan Inggris yang mempertahankan suku bunga kemarin, ikut menguatkan dolar terhadap euro dan pound. Dolar juga menguat terhadap yen berkat aksi profit-taking posisi short yen menjelang rilisan data payroll dan unemployment AS. Meski potensi penguatan dolar terbatas berkat spekulasi sejumlah negara mempertimbangkan alternatif untuk mata uang cadangan devisa yang baru dan isu penurunan rating kredit AAA milik AS dapat menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang dolar AS dalam waktu dekat. Sebelumnya data Jobless Claims AS tercatat 621K di pekan lalu dari revisi 623K. Trend penguatan saham dan komoditi global, masih berperan membebani kinerja USD dalam waktu dekat ini, dimana penguatan dolar saat ini hanya karena technical rebound dari kondisi oversold dan aksi profit-taking setelah terpuruk tajam di pekan ini. Pasar akan mengamati data tenaga kerja AS, dimana dapat mendorong risk aversion jika data tercatat di bawah perkiraan pasar.
Euro masih mendapatkan tekanan di sesi Asia hari ini, meski ECB kemarin tetap mempertahankan suku bunga dan Presiden ECB Trichet mengatakan penampilan ekonomi regional akan membaik ditahun ini, di samping data jobless claims AS semalam memicu spekulasi bahwa sektor tenaga kerja telah mencapai bottom, mendorong aksi pemburuan dolar. Tekanan jual yang kuat di pound dolar berkat laporan Perdana Menteri Inggris Gordon Brown berencana mundur dalam waktu dekat, dimana dapat mengganggu proses pemulihan ekonomi Inggris dan tentunya Eropa, memberikan sentimen negatif kepada euro dolar. Euro juga terpukul akibat aksi profit-taking posisi long euro oleh trader dan investor menghadapi data Non Farm Payroll dan Unemployment AS. Meski potensi penurunan euro terbatas karena euro masih mendapatkan keuntungan dari trend kenaikan pasar saham dan komoditi global, yang dapat menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang dolar AS, diikuti kekhawatiran mengenai isu rating kredit AS dan sejumlah negara yang berkeinginan membentuk cadangan mata uang yang baru untuk menandingi dolar AS. Euro dapat melanjutkan keterpurukan jika data tenaga kerja AS tercatat memburuk di bulan Mei, dimana mendorong investor melakukan risk aversion yang menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang euro.
USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
96.08 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.6302 1.6661 (03/06) 1.3502 (23/01)
Yen melemah untuk hari ke-3 terhadap dolar di sesi Asia hari ini, berkat aksi profit-taking posisi short yen menjelang rilisan data tenaga kerja AS yang dapat memberikan bukti proses pemulihan ekonomi global berjalan lancar dan kondisi teknikal USD yang oversold, menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang yen. Laporan investor Jepang masih meningkatkan pembelian aset di luar negeri untuk mendapatkan keuntungan yang lebih tinggi dan imbas penguatan dolar terhadap euro dan pound berkat isu penurunan rating kredit Inggris dan isu rencana mundurnya Perdana Menteri Gordon Brown, memberikan alasan untuk melepas posisi short yen saat ini. Meski potensi pelemahan yen terbatas karena penguatan dolar saat ini bukan berdasarkan fundamental ekonomi AS, di tengah kekhawatiran mengenai beban hutang pemerintah AS dan isu penurunan rating hutang AS yang dapat membebani kinerja dolar terhadap yen. Indeks saham Nikkei 225 stock average di sesi Asia hari ini menguat 60.11 poin (0.62%), berperan menahan laju pelemahan yen terhadap dolar. Yen dapat melemah lebih lanjut, jika ada signal pemulihan ekonomi global dari data tenaga kerja AS, karean investor Jepang akan membeli aset lebih banyak di luar negeri yang dapat menghasilkan keuntungan yang lebih tinggi.
Pound sterling mengalami tekanan lebih lanjut terhadap dolar AS, berkat sentimen negatif dari Perdana Menteri Berniat untuk mundur setelah sejumlah menteri di kabinet mengajukan pengunduran-diri, telah menjatuhkan pound ke level terendah 1.6055 di sesi Asia hari ini. Kondisi teknikal pound yang overbought dan menjelang data tenaga kerja AS pada hari ini, mendorong Pound terkoreksi dari level tertinggi 1.6661 pada hari Rabu (03/06). BOE kemarin mempertahankan suku bunga dan tidak melanjutkan pembelian obligasi negara. Meski potensi penurunan pound dapat dibatasi kekhawatiran mengenai isu penurunan rating kredit oleh Moodys dan spekulasi sejumlah negara berencana membuat mata uang cadangan devisa alternatif tandingan untuk dolar AS, dimana dapat memberikan technical rebound untuk pound pada hari ini. Meningkatnya ketidakpastian mengenai situasi politik di Inggris, akibat tereksposnya belanja pribadi oleh anggota parlemen yang memicu 4 menteri Inggris mundur dan poling ICM menunjukkan Partai Berkuasa Labour Party berada di peringkat 3 dalam pemilu hari ini, masih membebani kinerja pound terhadap dolar dan euro.
USD-CHF 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
1.0681 1.1965 (12/03) 1.0592 (02/06) 0.8005 0.8263 (03/06) 0.6248 (02/02)
Swiss franc mengalami tekanan lebih lanjut terhadap dolar di sesi Asia hari ini, setelah data ekonomi AS semalam memberikan bukti bahwa pemulihan ekonomi AS akan memberikan momentum kepada investor dan aksi profit-taking menjelang rilisan data pengangguran AS yang mencapai level tertinggi 25 tahun, berpotensi memicu risk aversion diantara investor global. Isu mundurnya Perdana Menteri Inggris Gordon Brown dan sesuai dengan perkiraan keputusan bank sentral Eropa dan Inggris yang mempertahankan suku bunga kemarin, ikut menguatkan dolar terhadap euro dan pound. Meski potensi pelemahan CHF terbatas berkat spekulasi sejumlah negara mempertimbangkan alternatif untuk mata uang cadangan devisa yang baru dan isu penurunan rating kredit AAA milik AS dapat meningkatkan daya tarik untuk memegang CHF dalam waktu dekat. Pasar akan mengamati data tenaga kerja AS, dimana dapat mendorong risk aversion jika data tercatat di bawah perkiraan pasar. kembali mengamati testimony Fed Bernanke, pertemuan ECB & BOE.
Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) mengalami koreksi penurunan di sesi Asia hari ini, setelah laporan Rio Tinto Group dan BHP Biliton mengatakan mereka akan membuat joint venture untuk batu besi di Australia Selatan. Aussie dan kiwi menguat terhadap yen setelah Presiden ECB Trichet kemarin mengatakan penampilan ekonomi regional akan membaik di tahun ini. Aussie menguat setelah BHP Biliton yang bermarkas di Melbourne, perusahaan tambang terbesar di dunia, setuju membayar Rio Tinto $ 5.8 miliar untuk menciptakan aset perusahaan iron ore (pasir besi) Australia Barat. Rio mengatakan perusahaan akan meningkatkan dana dari right issue setelah menolak $ 19.5 miliar dari Aluminium Corp dari China. Aussie juga menguat karena aktifitas building meningkat di bulan Mei ke level tertinggi, memberikan bukti ekonomi akan melampaui negara maju di tahun di tahun 2009 setelah meningkat di Q1 2009. Pasar akan mengamati data tenaga kerja AS hari ini.
Technical Analysis
(-30-50p) EUR-USD masih berada dalam trend bullish karena berada dalam uptrend channel, kendati mendapatkan signal negatif dari pola head on shoulder dengan neckline di 1.4105 (false break???) dan pola candle daily evening star di daily chart dapat menahan laju penurunan euro. Indikator Stochastic menunjukkan golden cross dan MACD masih uptrend, diikuti ADX menunjukkan flat di level 15 seharusnya mendukung potensi penurunan euro terbatas. Support di 1.4133 (support line)/1.4105 (neckline H&S)/1.4063 (50.0 FR 1.4336-1.3792). Resistance di 1.4302 (100.0 FE))/1.4430 (Uptrend line). Euro telah menyelesaikan wave minute 5 untuk menjadi wave koreksi a dalam wave intermediate 4. Buy 1.4070 target di 1.4300 stop 60p, buy break 1.4340 target 1.4450 stop 60p, Sell 1.4450 target 1.4300 stop 50p. Buy break 1.4250 target 1.4330 stop 50p.
(+30p) USDJPY masih menunjukkan pola head & shoulder dan downtrend channel, meski telah menembus upper channel di 96.35 kemarin yang memberikan momentum bullish kepada jpy untuk target 98.22 (resistance line). Sementara pola congestion masih terlihat di daily chart. Indikator ADX terangkat naik, stochastic crossing up bullish meski MACD masih berada di teritorial negatif, menunjukkan range trading 95-97 akan break hari ini. Jika ditutup diatas level 95.84 (10-day MA) target 98.22/98.35 (100.0 FE). Jika hari ini ditutup diatas 96.89 (200-day MA) dapat menetralkan tekanan bearish, dan memutarbalikkan trend menjadi bullish dari netral. Sell 97.20 target 96.00 stop 97.40, sell break 95.90 target 95.00 stop 50p. Buy break 97.35 target 98.30, sell 98.30 target 96.90.
(+120p-30p). Trend bullish GBP-USD terancam saat ini, dari tembusnya downtrend line di 1.6110 dalam pola ascending triangle di chart 4 jam dan pola downtrend channel minor yang seharusnya memberikan momentum bearish. Meski GBP masih mendapatkan support dari pola broadening bullish dengan support 1.5880. Daily chart juga menunjukkan potensi membentuk pola candle three black crows jika ditutup dibawah 1.6112 (rejection high di 4 jam), dapat memperburuk pandangan teknikal GBP-USD pekan depan. Indikator teknikal ADX trending up, mendukung potensi penuurunan lebih lanjut, didukung MACD & Stochastic 4 jam yang bearish. Analisa EW menunjukkan proses wave motive minute 5 telah selesai dan dalam wave impulse 3. Buy break 1.6120 target 1.6240 stop 60p. Buy break 1.6440 target 1.6580 stop 50p. Buy 1.5980 target 1.6250 stop 100p. Buy break 1.6250 target 1.6400 stop 50p. Sell break 1.5870 target 1.5560.
(-50-50p) AUD-USD masih berada dalam trend bullish selama masih bertahan di atas downtrend line 0.7902 dengan pola candle evening star kemarin didukung oleh ADX terkoreksi turun dari kondisi overbought, stochastic dan MACD yang masih uptrend, seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan aud hari ini. Meski trend masih bullish selama bertahan di atas 0.7902 (support line di ascending triangle), untuk target 0.8263 (61.8 FE & high kemarin))/0.8449 (100.0 FE). Elliot wave menunjukkan koreksi motive wave 4 dalam wave intermediate C. Buy break 0.8090 target 0.8250 stop 50p, Buy break 0.8060 target 0.8160 (closing) stop 50p, Sell 0.8180 target 0.8050 stop 50p. Buy break 0.8290 target 0.8430, sell break 0.7990 target 0.7890 stop 50p.
Thursday, June 4, 2009
Faktor Sentimen & Teknikal IHSG Masih Strong
Market Review
Kuatnya sentimen dari dalam negeri, berhasil angkat IHSG dari teritorial negatif untuk ditutup menguat, setelah di sesi pertama perdagangan sempat terkoreksi turun akibat aksi profit-taking di sejumlah saham komoditi dan perbankan, berkat pengaruh penurunan indeks saham regional dan Wall Street hari Rabu. Dampak penurunan suku bunga BI sebesar 25 bsp dan masih berlanjutnya euphoria pembagian dividen masih terasa pada perdagangan kemarin. Masih berlanjutnya penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar AS ke level tertinggi sejak September 2008 di Rp 10,075, ikut mendorong inflow yang kuat ke BEI. IHSG menguat 21.802 poin, ditutup di 2,032.716, dengan nilai transaksi reguler di BEI tercatat Rp 4.275 triliun. Sementara crossing saham ISAT sebesar Rp 11.6 triliun, menjadikan total transaksi menjadi Rp 16.462 triliun.
Mayoritas indeks saham di Asia-Pacific terkoreksi turun, pertama kali dalam 5 hari terakhir, karena penurunan harga komoditi dan laporan jasa dan tenaga kerja AS tercatat dibawah perkiraan pasar. Mahalnya valuasi indeks setelah meningkat ke level tertinggi 5-bulan, picu aksi profit-taking.
IHSG Outlook
IHSG diperkirakan masih mampu mempertahankan momentum kenaikan berkat sejumlah sentimen positif masih membanjiri saham lokal, mengacuhkan kinerja indeks regional Asia dan AS yang volatile sejak awal pekan ini. Dampak Indonesia menjadi incaran Fund Manager asing yang mencari keuntungan yang lebih tinggi, setelah sejumlah analis meningkatkan target harga saham lokal & pertumbuhan ekonomi RI, diikuti kenaikan harga komoditi (Goldman Sachs merevisi naik target harga minyak menjadi US$ 85/barel) meningkatkan daya tarik untuk saham komoditi (pertambangan, perkebunan) serta penguatan rupiah (ditutup di Rp 10,075/USD) memberikan support untuk saham emiten yang memiliki hutang dalam bentuk USD dan picu inflow ke saham lokal. Sementara euphoria pembagian dividen dan trend bullish regional Asia dan AS, masih menopang kinerja IHSG. Top Pick : BMRI, BBRI, BBCA, BBNI BUMI, UNSP, ELTY, ENRG, SMGR, PGAS, PTBA, ANTM, INCO, LSIP, JSMR, TLKM.
Stock Picks:
* CPRO
* HEXA
Global Outlook
Mahalnya valuasi saham MSCI Asia Pasifik dan BNP Paribas menurunkan rating saham China menjadi netral dari overweight, seharusnya membatasi momentum kenaikan saham regional Asia yang kembali mendapatkan sentimen positif dari data ekonomi AS (Non Productivity AS (+1.6%), Jobless Claims -4k menjadi 621,000) lebih baik dari prediksi dan pertemuan bank sentral Inggris dan Eropa tetap mempertahankan suku bunga di rekor terendah, karena melihat signal pemulihan ekonomi, memberikan support kepada indeks saham regional hingga pekan depan, menjelang data tenaga kerja AS yang telah diantisipasi pasar hari ini.
Technical Analysis:
Pola candle bullish continuation masih terlihat di IHSG, memberikan momentum kenaikan hari ini, didukung oleh indikator teknikal daily ADX trending up strong, MACD bullish dan stochastic menunjukkan golden cross di teritorial overbought, seharusnya masih mendukung trend bullish jangka pendek yang sesuai dengan analisa Elliot wave, IHSG berada dalam proses minute wave iii dalam minor wave impulse 5 untuk target 2,053 (100.0 FE)/2,142 (uptrend line - diagonal triangle) dalam siklus koreksi intermediate wave 4 selama ditutup harian di atas 1,842 (uptrend linel). Support di 1,940 (10-day MA)/1,886 (20-day MA).
Resistance: 2105.04/2083.41/2061.78/2054.52. PP 2018.52
Support : 2011.25/2003.99/1989.62/1975.26/1953.63
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2,010-2,085)
www.strategydesk.co.id
www.universalbroker.co.id (code TF)
Kuatnya sentimen dari dalam negeri, berhasil angkat IHSG dari teritorial negatif untuk ditutup menguat, setelah di sesi pertama perdagangan sempat terkoreksi turun akibat aksi profit-taking di sejumlah saham komoditi dan perbankan, berkat pengaruh penurunan indeks saham regional dan Wall Street hari Rabu. Dampak penurunan suku bunga BI sebesar 25 bsp dan masih berlanjutnya euphoria pembagian dividen masih terasa pada perdagangan kemarin. Masih berlanjutnya penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar AS ke level tertinggi sejak September 2008 di Rp 10,075, ikut mendorong inflow yang kuat ke BEI. IHSG menguat 21.802 poin, ditutup di 2,032.716, dengan nilai transaksi reguler di BEI tercatat Rp 4.275 triliun. Sementara crossing saham ISAT sebesar Rp 11.6 triliun, menjadikan total transaksi menjadi Rp 16.462 triliun.
Mayoritas indeks saham di Asia-Pacific terkoreksi turun, pertama kali dalam 5 hari terakhir, karena penurunan harga komoditi dan laporan jasa dan tenaga kerja AS tercatat dibawah perkiraan pasar. Mahalnya valuasi indeks setelah meningkat ke level tertinggi 5-bulan, picu aksi profit-taking.
IHSG Outlook
IHSG diperkirakan masih mampu mempertahankan momentum kenaikan berkat sejumlah sentimen positif masih membanjiri saham lokal, mengacuhkan kinerja indeks regional Asia dan AS yang volatile sejak awal pekan ini. Dampak Indonesia menjadi incaran Fund Manager asing yang mencari keuntungan yang lebih tinggi, setelah sejumlah analis meningkatkan target harga saham lokal & pertumbuhan ekonomi RI, diikuti kenaikan harga komoditi (Goldman Sachs merevisi naik target harga minyak menjadi US$ 85/barel) meningkatkan daya tarik untuk saham komoditi (pertambangan, perkebunan) serta penguatan rupiah (ditutup di Rp 10,075/USD) memberikan support untuk saham emiten yang memiliki hutang dalam bentuk USD dan picu inflow ke saham lokal. Sementara euphoria pembagian dividen dan trend bullish regional Asia dan AS, masih menopang kinerja IHSG. Top Pick : BMRI, BBRI, BBCA, BBNI BUMI, UNSP, ELTY, ENRG, SMGR, PGAS, PTBA, ANTM, INCO, LSIP, JSMR, TLKM.
Stock Picks:
* CPRO
* HEXA
Global Outlook
Mahalnya valuasi saham MSCI Asia Pasifik dan BNP Paribas menurunkan rating saham China menjadi netral dari overweight, seharusnya membatasi momentum kenaikan saham regional Asia yang kembali mendapatkan sentimen positif dari data ekonomi AS (Non Productivity AS (+1.6%), Jobless Claims -4k menjadi 621,000) lebih baik dari prediksi dan pertemuan bank sentral Inggris dan Eropa tetap mempertahankan suku bunga di rekor terendah, karena melihat signal pemulihan ekonomi, memberikan support kepada indeks saham regional hingga pekan depan, menjelang data tenaga kerja AS yang telah diantisipasi pasar hari ini.
Technical Analysis:
Pola candle bullish continuation masih terlihat di IHSG, memberikan momentum kenaikan hari ini, didukung oleh indikator teknikal daily ADX trending up strong, MACD bullish dan stochastic menunjukkan golden cross di teritorial overbought, seharusnya masih mendukung trend bullish jangka pendek yang sesuai dengan analisa Elliot wave, IHSG berada dalam proses minute wave iii dalam minor wave impulse 5 untuk target 2,053 (100.0 FE)/2,142 (uptrend line - diagonal triangle) dalam siklus koreksi intermediate wave 4 selama ditutup harian di atas 1,842 (uptrend linel). Support di 1,940 (10-day MA)/1,886 (20-day MA).
Resistance: 2105.04/2083.41/2061.78/2054.52. PP 2018.52
Support : 2011.25/2003.99/1989.62/1975.26/1953.63
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2,010-2,085)
www.strategydesk.co.id
www.universalbroker.co.id (code TF)
Koreksi Penurunan Minor Indeks Regional Asia Berakhir
SSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
9755 9530 9765 9430 9805 9610 9905 9530 9575 9660 9790 9835 9920
Commentary
Secara teknikal, SSIM9 berada dalam trend bullish meski menunjukkan pola descending triangle di chart 4 jam, dengan signal positif dari pola candle daily piercing bullish dan indikator teknikal stochastic daily crossing (K% & D%), meski MACD masih uptrend dan ADX menunjukkan flat, seharusnya masih dukung perkiraan range trading 9500-9800 pada beberapa hari mendatang. Indeks ditutup diatas 9,579 (support line) dan berpotensi mengarah naik ke target 10003 (upper trendline)/10349 (161.8 FE). Sementara support berada di 9617 (61.8 FE))/9538 (100.0 FE) seharusnya masih menopang kinerja uptrend indeks dalam beberapa hari mendatang. Perkiraan range hari ini pada kisaran 9600-9850.
Rekomendasi : Sell break 9570 target 9490, stop 100p, Buy 9,490 target 9800 stop 100p, Sell 9890 & 9960 target 9765 stop 50p. Sell break 9450 target 9220 stop 60p. (-100p)
KSM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
174.90 176.5 179.7 175.5 180.4 177.3 181.4 168.4 171.5 173.2 178.0 181.1 182.8
Commentary
Secara teknikal, KSM9 masih berada dalam kondisi uptrend, meski menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola inverted H&S di chart 4 jam dan pola candle bullish continuation. Indikator teknikal menunjukkan signal negatif ditunjukkan meski stochastic menunjukkan dead cross, ADX menunjukkan crosing up (+DI & -DI), meski indikator MACD menunjukkan kenaikan, menunjukkan potensi penurunan masih terbuka meski terbatas. Selama indeks ditutup diatas downtrend support line 174.70, potensi kenaikan masih terbuka. Resistance berada di 183.00 (resistance line))/188.88 (161.8 FE). Sementara trend dapat berbalik bearish jika indeks ditutup dibawah 174.70, target 171.70 (100.0 FE)/169.08 (support line)/164.90 (161.8 FE). Perkiraan range hari ini: 172.00-178.00
Rekomendasi : Sell 178.90 target 176.00 stop 100p, buy break 177.40 target 178.90 stop 60p. Buy 171.80 target 176.40. Buy 174.60 target 17.00 stop 100p. Buy 169.20 tgt 176 (+250+40p)
HSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
18353 18047 18438 17947 18672 18359 18772 17660 17856 18105 18550 18746 18995
Commentary
Secara teknikal, indeks menunjukkan pola bearish reversal dari formasi bearish engulfing dari high target 18941 di chart 4-jam, mendorong potensi penurunan, meski dalam diagonal triangle, masih dukung trend bullish selama support line 17,735. Jika ditutup dibawah level tersebut trend berbalik netral untuk jangka pendek. Sementara indeks mendapatkan support di 17.922 (100.0 FE), jika break target 17383 (161.8 FE). Indeks telah mengisi gap di kisaran 18182. Indikator ADX menunjukkan koreksi penurunan, stochastic menunjukkan dead cross dan MACD menunjukkan koreksi dukung potensi penurunan terbatas hari ini. Resistance berada di 18,482/18588 (former support)/19009 (61.8 Fibonacci expansion). Perkiraan range hari Selasa : 18.000-18.700.
Rekomendasi : Buy break 18490 target 18730 (or closing) stop 100 p. Sell break 17060 target 16940 stop 60 poin. Sell 18730 target 18360 stop 100p. Buy 17750 target 18360 stop 50p. Sell break 17700 target on closing stop 100p. (-100p)
9755 9530 9765 9430 9805 9610 9905 9530 9575 9660 9790 9835 9920
Commentary
Secara teknikal, SSIM9 berada dalam trend bullish meski menunjukkan pola descending triangle di chart 4 jam, dengan signal positif dari pola candle daily piercing bullish dan indikator teknikal stochastic daily crossing (K% & D%), meski MACD masih uptrend dan ADX menunjukkan flat, seharusnya masih dukung perkiraan range trading 9500-9800 pada beberapa hari mendatang. Indeks ditutup diatas 9,579 (support line) dan berpotensi mengarah naik ke target 10003 (upper trendline)/10349 (161.8 FE). Sementara support berada di 9617 (61.8 FE))/9538 (100.0 FE) seharusnya masih menopang kinerja uptrend indeks dalam beberapa hari mendatang. Perkiraan range hari ini pada kisaran 9600-9850.
Rekomendasi : Sell break 9570 target 9490, stop 100p, Buy 9,490 target 9800 stop 100p, Sell 9890 & 9960 target 9765 stop 50p. Sell break 9450 target 9220 stop 60p. (-100p)
KSM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
174.90 176.5 179.7 175.5 180.4 177.3 181.4 168.4 171.5 173.2 178.0 181.1 182.8
Commentary
Secara teknikal, KSM9 masih berada dalam kondisi uptrend, meski menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola inverted H&S di chart 4 jam dan pola candle bullish continuation. Indikator teknikal menunjukkan signal negatif ditunjukkan meski stochastic menunjukkan dead cross, ADX menunjukkan crosing up (+DI & -DI), meski indikator MACD menunjukkan kenaikan, menunjukkan potensi penurunan masih terbuka meski terbatas. Selama indeks ditutup diatas downtrend support line 174.70, potensi kenaikan masih terbuka. Resistance berada di 183.00 (resistance line))/188.88 (161.8 FE). Sementara trend dapat berbalik bearish jika indeks ditutup dibawah 174.70, target 171.70 (100.0 FE)/169.08 (support line)/164.90 (161.8 FE). Perkiraan range hari ini: 172.00-178.00
Rekomendasi : Sell 178.90 target 176.00 stop 100p, buy break 177.40 target 178.90 stop 60p. Buy 171.80 target 176.40. Buy 174.60 target 17.00 stop 100p. Buy 169.20 tgt 176 (+250+40p)
HSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
18353 18047 18438 17947 18672 18359 18772 17660 17856 18105 18550 18746 18995
Commentary
Secara teknikal, indeks menunjukkan pola bearish reversal dari formasi bearish engulfing dari high target 18941 di chart 4-jam, mendorong potensi penurunan, meski dalam diagonal triangle, masih dukung trend bullish selama support line 17,735. Jika ditutup dibawah level tersebut trend berbalik netral untuk jangka pendek. Sementara indeks mendapatkan support di 17.922 (100.0 FE), jika break target 17383 (161.8 FE). Indeks telah mengisi gap di kisaran 18182. Indikator ADX menunjukkan koreksi penurunan, stochastic menunjukkan dead cross dan MACD menunjukkan koreksi dukung potensi penurunan terbatas hari ini. Resistance berada di 18,482/18588 (former support)/19009 (61.8 Fibonacci expansion). Perkiraan range hari Selasa : 18.000-18.700.
Rekomendasi : Buy break 18490 target 18730 (or closing) stop 100 p. Sell break 17060 target 16940 stop 60 poin. Sell 18730 target 18360 stop 100p. Buy 17750 target 18360 stop 50p. Sell break 17700 target on closing stop 100p. (-100p)
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Jun 04 09 06:39 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's retreat was contained at 64.95, supported by 4 hours 55 EMA and rebounded. Some more consolidation might be seen but after all, rise from 43.83 is still in favor to continue as long as near term rising channel holds. Above 90.05 will target 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next. Meanwhile, sustained break of the channel support will but the first signal that crude oil has topped out and will turn focus to 59.61 support for confirmation.
In the bigger picture, the question remains on whether the rise from 33.2 represent reversal in trend in crude oil, or it's merely a correction in the larger down trend. But in any case, rise from 33.2 should still be in force as long as 56.07 support holds. Sustained trading above mentioned 55 weeks and 55 months EMA will pave the way to stronger rally to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next, with prospect of extending to key cluster level at 90, (90% retracement at 90.23).
However, note that crude oil is still struggling around both EMA for the moment. Below 56.07 will be the first signal that rebound from 33.2 has completed and will turn focus to channel support (now at around 50 level ) for confirmation. Break there will indicate that a medium term top is likely formed and Crude oil could then target prior low of 33.2 again.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's retreat was contained at 64.95, supported by 4 hours 55 EMA and rebounded. Some more consolidation might be seen but after all, rise from 43.83 is still in favor to continue as long as near term rising channel holds. Above 90.05 will target 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next. Meanwhile, sustained break of the channel support will but the first signal that crude oil has topped out and will turn focus to 59.61 support for confirmation.
In the bigger picture, the question remains on whether the rise from 33.2 represent reversal in trend in crude oil, or it's merely a correction in the larger down trend. But in any case, rise from 33.2 should still be in force as long as 56.07 support holds. Sustained trading above mentioned 55 weeks and 55 months EMA will pave the way to stronger rally to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next, with prospect of extending to key cluster level at 90, (90% retracement at 90.23).
However, note that crude oil is still struggling around both EMA for the moment. Below 56.07 will be the first signal that rebound from 33.2 has completed and will turn focus to channel support (now at around 50 level ) for confirmation. Break there will indicate that a medium term top is likely formed and Crude oil could then target prior low of 33.2 again.
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Jun 04 09 06:41 ET
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's break of 970.0 support indicates that an intraday top is formed and turns outlook neutral for the moment. Nevertheless, note that recent rally is still in favor to continue as long as channel support (now at 949) holds. ABove 992.1 will bring retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone first. However, note that a break of the channel support will argue that a short term top in at least in place and bring deeper decline.
In the bigger picture, the break of 967.7 resistance last week confirmed that correction from 1007.7 has completed at 865 already. Rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of whole rally from 681 as well as resumption of long term up trend. Having said that, we'd look forward to a break of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone to resume the long term up trend. In such case, next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160.
Nevertheless, a break below 945.8 support will firstly suggest that rise from 865 has completed. More importantly, it will open up the case that that consolidation from 1007.7 is still in progress for a test of 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) before completion. Hence, the bullish view will be delayed in such case.
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's break of 970.0 support indicates that an intraday top is formed and turns outlook neutral for the moment. Nevertheless, note that recent rally is still in favor to continue as long as channel support (now at 949) holds. ABove 992.1 will bring retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone first. However, note that a break of the channel support will argue that a short term top in at least in place and bring deeper decline.
In the bigger picture, the break of 967.7 resistance last week confirmed that correction from 1007.7 has completed at 865 already. Rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of whole rally from 681 as well as resumption of long term up trend. Having said that, we'd look forward to a break of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone to resume the long term up trend. In such case, next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160.
Nevertheless, a break below 945.8 support will firstly suggest that rise from 865 has completed. More importantly, it will open up the case that that consolidation from 1007.7 is still in progress for a test of 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) before completion. Hence, the bullish view will be delayed in such case.
Eur/Usd At Resistance, Gold: Corrective wave IV
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by TheLFB-Forex.com
Eur/Usd
Daily Chart trend: Short possibilities. Main price points: 1.4250 - 1.4350. Looking for: Wave B top
Eur/Usd has made another very sharp move to the upside during the Tuesday Euro and US session. The wave count on the four hour chart, presented yesterday, is still valid as the market is forming an extension in a fifth wave. However, we are back with a daily chart where we are still monitoring the price reaction around the 76.4% retracement of wave A where wave B highs may find the top for a possible turning point. Traders should pay attention to the 1.4250 and 1.4350 areas, as we also see a trend-line resistance in this zone connected from black wave B and wave X highs, which may also be a turning point. The wave count presented below will be valid, so long as the 1.4719 high of red wave X, stays in place. We will be looking for a bearish wave count if the market, at any time, breaks through the lower blue support line of the current uptrend.
Gold
4 Hour Chart trend: Long. Main price points: 988.37. Looking for: Wave IV
Gold recently tested the previous wave III highs at 988.37 area which means we are looking for an irregular correction as the prices in wave B) made a new high by $1 per ounce or so. An irregular correction means that prices in wave B) goes above the start of wave A) before the wave C) starts to develop. So if we are correct, then prices should now already be trading in the wave C) leg, which should be targeting the previous wave A) lows and then also a 382% retracement of wave III. We will be looking for a possible bounce higher in that area.
Eur/Usd
Daily Chart trend: Short possibilities. Main price points: 1.4250 - 1.4350. Looking for: Wave B top
Eur/Usd has made another very sharp move to the upside during the Tuesday Euro and US session. The wave count on the four hour chart, presented yesterday, is still valid as the market is forming an extension in a fifth wave. However, we are back with a daily chart where we are still monitoring the price reaction around the 76.4% retracement of wave A where wave B highs may find the top for a possible turning point. Traders should pay attention to the 1.4250 and 1.4350 areas, as we also see a trend-line resistance in this zone connected from black wave B and wave X highs, which may also be a turning point. The wave count presented below will be valid, so long as the 1.4719 high of red wave X, stays in place. We will be looking for a bearish wave count if the market, at any time, breaks through the lower blue support line of the current uptrend.
Gold
4 Hour Chart trend: Long. Main price points: 988.37. Looking for: Wave IV
Gold recently tested the previous wave III highs at 988.37 area which means we are looking for an irregular correction as the prices in wave B) made a new high by $1 per ounce or so. An irregular correction means that prices in wave B) goes above the start of wave A) before the wave C) starts to develop. So if we are correct, then prices should now already be trading in the wave C) leg, which should be targeting the previous wave A) lows and then also a 382% retracement of wave III. We will be looking for a possible bounce higher in that area.
Daily FX Technical Commentary
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank
EURUSD
Comment: Reversing Tuesday's gains, doing wonders for the overbought situation. Two-way price action should help to push implied volatility higher. Expect consolidation under yesterday's high at 1.4339 today and maybe Friday too. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.4175; stop well below 1.4000. Short term target 1.4330/1.4360, then a lot more with a first measured target at 1.4545. Direction of Trade: →↗ Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.4100 " 1.4192
1.4065* 1.425
1.4 1.4339*
1.3925 1.443
1.3845 1.4545
GBPUSD
Comment: Stopping exactly at the bottom edge of the weekly Ichimoku 'cloud' and should hold below here today and tomorrow, maybe next week too. However, the 9-day moving average at 1.6221 might limit the downside this morning. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6275; stop below 1.6000. First target 1.6500. Direction of Trade: →↗
Support Resistance
1.6210 " 1.6345
1.6085 1.641
1.6115 1.65
1.6000* 1.66
1.5855 1.6664
USDJPY
Comment: Obviously prices cannot hold inside the current range for ever, and we continue to feel that the Ichimoku 'cloud' should eventually force it lower. Expect even more of the same today as the Yen looks for direction. Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 96.10/96.35; stop above 97.35. First target 95.00, adding to shorts below 94.40 for 94.00 and then 93.65.Direction of Trade: → Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
95.83 " 96.37/96.43
95.33 96.65
95 97
94.42* 97.24*
93.55* 97.55
Mizuho Corporate Bank
EURUSD
Comment: Reversing Tuesday's gains, doing wonders for the overbought situation. Two-way price action should help to push implied volatility higher. Expect consolidation under yesterday's high at 1.4339 today and maybe Friday too. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.4175; stop well below 1.4000. Short term target 1.4330/1.4360, then a lot more with a first measured target at 1.4545. Direction of Trade: →↗ Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.4100 " 1.4192
1.4065* 1.425
1.4 1.4339*
1.3925 1.443
1.3845 1.4545
GBPUSD
Comment: Stopping exactly at the bottom edge of the weekly Ichimoku 'cloud' and should hold below here today and tomorrow, maybe next week too. However, the 9-day moving average at 1.6221 might limit the downside this morning. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6275; stop below 1.6000. First target 1.6500. Direction of Trade: →↗
Support Resistance
1.6210 " 1.6345
1.6085 1.641
1.6115 1.65
1.6000* 1.66
1.5855 1.6664
USDJPY
Comment: Obviously prices cannot hold inside the current range for ever, and we continue to feel that the Ichimoku 'cloud' should eventually force it lower. Expect even more of the same today as the Yen looks for direction. Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 96.10/96.35; stop above 97.35. First target 95.00, adding to shorts below 94.40 for 94.00 and then 93.65.Direction of Trade: → Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
95.83 " 96.37/96.43
95.33 96.65
95 97
94.42* 97.24*
93.55* 97.55
Mizuho Corporate Bank
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
Crude Oil and the US Dollar Elliott Wave Analysis
The USD is in wave b down, currently in wave 5 of (C). We should see further downside before a strong rally in wave c up. Crude is in wave b up, currently in wave 5 of (C). Crude is an excellent example of a bear market correction, since we would want to see at least 3 waves (an abc) complete from the peak. If you are not familiar with Elliott Wave, you can examine the completed decline on any chart that has had a parabolic advance in a so called bubble. The decline completes as 3 waves, with wave b up, as the bear market rally. This rally also coincides with the other markets.
The charts are aligning for a reversal similar to last July before the commodities and markets crashed. Its deja vu before history repeats itself. We still need to see further upside for the DOW, but the next decline should take out the March lows. We still need to see the USD and Euro (not shown) hit their targets before the reversal. The metals still have further upside as well, but we should see a strong correction similar to the one last year, before the bull advance resumes. Many of our charts illustrate triangles or ending diagonals patterns, which indicates a top is near and we could see a reversal as early as next week. The reversal could extend a bit longer, so keep an eye on the USD, when it hits the target and bounces above the top trendline, we expect all of the markets to roll over at the same time.
Crude Oil
We have been extremely busy and it has almost been almost a year since our last free newsletter. The last newsletter covered the USD and Crude as well and also mentioned the forecast for the pending decline in the markets and commodities that occurred in July 2008. We called the top for Crude on the day that it rolled over, with the first downside target of $55. Since the decline in the markets, we have been too busy to distribute the free newsletters, but I wanted to get this one out, so that you would be aware of the current market condition. Be careful, it is a bear market rally and its close to completing. These charts are only a guide so that you can follow the action and watch the expected action. The action could play out exactly as illustrated or it may need minor adjustments as we follow it through. If you are interested in viewing these updated charts and other detailed charts with targets on a daily basis, please see the registration details below.
By Dan Stinson
The charts are aligning for a reversal similar to last July before the commodities and markets crashed. Its deja vu before history repeats itself. We still need to see further upside for the DOW, but the next decline should take out the March lows. We still need to see the USD and Euro (not shown) hit their targets before the reversal. The metals still have further upside as well, but we should see a strong correction similar to the one last year, before the bull advance resumes. Many of our charts illustrate triangles or ending diagonals patterns, which indicates a top is near and we could see a reversal as early as next week. The reversal could extend a bit longer, so keep an eye on the USD, when it hits the target and bounces above the top trendline, we expect all of the markets to roll over at the same time.
Crude Oil
We have been extremely busy and it has almost been almost a year since our last free newsletter. The last newsletter covered the USD and Crude as well and also mentioned the forecast for the pending decline in the markets and commodities that occurred in July 2008. We called the top for Crude on the day that it rolled over, with the first downside target of $55. Since the decline in the markets, we have been too busy to distribute the free newsletters, but I wanted to get this one out, so that you would be aware of the current market condition. Be careful, it is a bear market rally and its close to completing. These charts are only a guide so that you can follow the action and watch the expected action. The action could play out exactly as illustrated or it may need minor adjustments as we follow it through. If you are interested in viewing these updated charts and other detailed charts with targets on a daily basis, please see the registration details below.
By Dan Stinson
Why the S&P 500 Stock Market Index Could Crash Another 50%
With the words “green shoots” and “bull market” getting more and more coverage in the mainstream financial press, it’s worth considering if this current market/ economy is actually improving. Personally I don’t know what data the folks at CNBC are looking at. Because to me, all signs point to further wealth destruction and great economic contraction to come in the months ahead. For starters, there’s the issue of sentiment. Many commentators have made a big deal out of the fact the Chicago Board of Options Volatility index (VIX)¾ a common measure of investor sentiment¾ recently fell below 30 for the first time since the Market Crash in October. However, a VIX reading of 30 only indicates that investors are back to normal “bear market” freak out mode as opposed to full-blown “the world is ending” crisis hysteria: remember the VIX was at 30 during the recession of 1990-91 and during the Tech crash. So this hardly indicates things are getting much better.
Moreover, from a valuation perspective, stocks are nowhere near cheap. During the recessions of the early ’70s and ‘80s, stocks fell to trade at single digit Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratios. With this current recession obliterating earnings every month, P/E ratios are actually rising, NOT falling.
Consider that earnings estimates for the S&P 500 in 2009 currently stand at $28.51. With the S&P 500 trading at 887, this values the stock index at 31! That’s the kind of valuation seen during bubbles, NOT bear markets. For the S&P 500 to trade at a P/E of 7 (where it did during the last two major bear markets), the S&P 500 would have to fall to 200 (I’m not saying this will happen, but simply pointing out how expensive stocks are). Even a P/E of 15 would put the S&P 500 at 382: a more than 50% decline from where the market trades today. Of course, this is assuming that the current earnings estimates are accurate: as recently as Feb 9, 2009, earnings estimates for the S&P 500 in 2009 were as high as $42. It’s also worth mentioning that earnings are generally massaged to be higher than real profits via various accounting gimmicks. REAL corporate profits (cash flow) are likely to be even lower. No, if this bear market goes the way of others, we’ve still got quite a ways to fall. Indeed, as far as bear markets go, we’re currently right in the middle based on the number of weeks declining and the price decline (see the chart below).
Bottomline: Don’t trust the mainstream financial commentators or government officials. We may be seeing “green shoots,” but remember that green shoots can spring up even in barren parking lot. This doesn’t mean you’ve got the makings of sustained growth. Instead, it’s far more likely that this market has a looooong way to fall. We’re certainly long overdue for a correction of 10% or so. I wouldn’t be surprised if we got this in the next four weeks.Prepare your portfolio accordingly.
Graham Summers
http://gainspainscapital.com
Moreover, from a valuation perspective, stocks are nowhere near cheap. During the recessions of the early ’70s and ‘80s, stocks fell to trade at single digit Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratios. With this current recession obliterating earnings every month, P/E ratios are actually rising, NOT falling.
Consider that earnings estimates for the S&P 500 in 2009 currently stand at $28.51. With the S&P 500 trading at 887, this values the stock index at 31! That’s the kind of valuation seen during bubbles, NOT bear markets. For the S&P 500 to trade at a P/E of 7 (where it did during the last two major bear markets), the S&P 500 would have to fall to 200 (I’m not saying this will happen, but simply pointing out how expensive stocks are). Even a P/E of 15 would put the S&P 500 at 382: a more than 50% decline from where the market trades today. Of course, this is assuming that the current earnings estimates are accurate: as recently as Feb 9, 2009, earnings estimates for the S&P 500 in 2009 were as high as $42. It’s also worth mentioning that earnings are generally massaged to be higher than real profits via various accounting gimmicks. REAL corporate profits (cash flow) are likely to be even lower. No, if this bear market goes the way of others, we’ve still got quite a ways to fall. Indeed, as far as bear markets go, we’re currently right in the middle based on the number of weeks declining and the price decline (see the chart below).
Bottomline: Don’t trust the mainstream financial commentators or government officials. We may be seeing “green shoots,” but remember that green shoots can spring up even in barren parking lot. This doesn’t mean you’ve got the makings of sustained growth. Instead, it’s far more likely that this market has a looooong way to fall. We’re certainly long overdue for a correction of 10% or so. I wouldn’t be surprised if we got this in the next four weeks.Prepare your portfolio accordingly.
Graham Summers
http://gainspainscapital.com
Elliot Wave: Usd/Jpy: Complex Correction , Dollar Index: Move higher?, GBPUSD
4 Hour Chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 93.85, 97.23 and 99.73. Looking for: Reaction around 97.23 resistance area
Usd/Jpy made another fast, powerful and unexpected move to the upside during the Monday sessions. If the 99.73 high becomes a non factor in the near-term, then we will be looking for a more complex wave II) correction where a double zig-zag may be the case, labeled as wave w), x) and y). If this is the case, then prices may reach the 61.8% or 76.4% of wave I) retracement where we will be looking for a turning point. The wave count will be valid as long as the 99.73 highs will hold. Traders should be looking for new downside targets as soon as the market breaks wave x and 93.85 lows.
Dollar Index
4 Hour Chart trend: Long possibilities. Main price points: 78.60, and 81.13. Looking for: Move higher, near the resistance line. Prices on the four hour dollar index chart are currently trading higher, away from 78.60 support approaching the upper line of a trading channel. As you will notice, we have reworked the previous wave count into a completed wave III/C , so a corrective wave IV may now be on the way. For the wave count to be correct then the current lows at 78.60 area must hold.
GBP/USD - 1.6545
Recent wave: wave c of 4 rally from 1.3655 (11 March 2009) is still under way
Trend : Up
The British pound continued last week's rally after penetrating the indicated 1.6045/86 level (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.8672-1.3500 and minimum 38.2% retracement of fall from 2.0162-1.3500) and extended to 1.6432 (exactly equality Fibonacci projection of 1.5852-1.6183 measured from 1.6053) on Monday before retreating, however, pullback is likely to be limited due to recent dollar's weakness elsewhere, therefore, buying cable on any dips is favoured to ride recent upmove. A breach of 1.6432 may extend gain to 1.6550 (1.618 times Fibonacci projection of 1.5852-1.6183 measured from 1.6053) The rally from from 1.3500 is viewed as a 4-wave type of corrective rise (a:1.4986, b:1.3655 and c is under way) to retrace intermediate decline from 1.8672, however, upside is likely to be capped at 1.6673/96 (high of 30 Oct 2008 and 61.8% retracement of 1.8672-1.3500).
On the dowside, only a breach of last Friday's high of 1.6200 would signal temporary top is made and bring stronger retracement of intermediate upmove from 1.5852 to 1.6142 (natural 50% Fibonacci retracement), however, 1.6053/74 (last Friday's New York support and 62% Fibonacci retracement) is expected to remain intact.
Usd/Jpy made another fast, powerful and unexpected move to the upside during the Monday sessions. If the 99.73 high becomes a non factor in the near-term, then we will be looking for a more complex wave II) correction where a double zig-zag may be the case, labeled as wave w), x) and y). If this is the case, then prices may reach the 61.8% or 76.4% of wave I) retracement where we will be looking for a turning point. The wave count will be valid as long as the 99.73 highs will hold. Traders should be looking for new downside targets as soon as the market breaks wave x and 93.85 lows.
Dollar Index
4 Hour Chart trend: Long possibilities. Main price points: 78.60, and 81.13. Looking for: Move higher, near the resistance line. Prices on the four hour dollar index chart are currently trading higher, away from 78.60 support approaching the upper line of a trading channel. As you will notice, we have reworked the previous wave count into a completed wave III/C , so a corrective wave IV may now be on the way. For the wave count to be correct then the current lows at 78.60 area must hold.
GBP/USD - 1.6545
Recent wave: wave c of 4 rally from 1.3655 (11 March 2009) is still under way
Trend : Up
The British pound continued last week's rally after penetrating the indicated 1.6045/86 level (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.8672-1.3500 and minimum 38.2% retracement of fall from 2.0162-1.3500) and extended to 1.6432 (exactly equality Fibonacci projection of 1.5852-1.6183 measured from 1.6053) on Monday before retreating, however, pullback is likely to be limited due to recent dollar's weakness elsewhere, therefore, buying cable on any dips is favoured to ride recent upmove. A breach of 1.6432 may extend gain to 1.6550 (1.618 times Fibonacci projection of 1.5852-1.6183 measured from 1.6053) The rally from from 1.3500 is viewed as a 4-wave type of corrective rise (a:1.4986, b:1.3655 and c is under way) to retrace intermediate decline from 1.8672, however, upside is likely to be capped at 1.6673/96 (high of 30 Oct 2008 and 61.8% retracement of 1.8672-1.3500).
On the dowside, only a breach of last Friday's high of 1.6200 would signal temporary top is made and bring stronger retracement of intermediate upmove from 1.5852 to 1.6142 (natural 50% Fibonacci retracement), however, 1.6053/74 (last Friday's New York support and 62% Fibonacci retracement) is expected to remain intact.
Daily Technical Analysis Forex & DJIA
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank
EURUSD
Comment: Pushing strongly higher and re-testing January's high at 1.4363 (December's 'spike high' was 1.4720). A sustained break above, and a weekly close over 1.4200 constitutes an important long term break forcing many to panic and flee the US dollar. Strategy: Buy at 1.4290, adding to 1.4200; stop well below 1.4000. Short term target 1.4330/1.4360, then a lot more with a first measured target at 1.4545
Direction of Trade: →↗ Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.4272 " 1.4332
1.42 1.4363*
1.4100* 1.44
1.4 1.443
1.39 1.4545
GBPUSD
Comment: Hot on the heels of this week's leaders, Aussie, Kiwi and Brazil, all the more extraordinary considering the political background. It just goes to show how overdone last year's sell-off had been. It has now retraced just over 38% of the decline from 2007's high 2.1172 and met the weekly Ichimoku 'cloud'. This might stall the rally this week but with spectacular bullish momentum we would not bank on it. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6585 but only if prepared to add to 1.6325; stop below 1.6000. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.6675 for 1.6800, maybe 1.7000. Direction of Trade: →↗ Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.6545 " 1.6595
1.64 1.6658*
1.6324 1.6700*
1.62 1.6800*
1.6000* 1.69
USDJPY
Comment: Still thrashing around roughly between 95.00 and 97.00 although the daily ranges are shrinking a little. Expect more of the same today as the Yen looks for direction, where it should eventually take its lead from what other currencies are doing. Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 95.90/96.25; stop above 97.35. First target 95.00, adding to shorts below 94.40 for 94.00 and then 93.65. Direction of Trade: →
Support Resistance
95.35 " 96.01
95 96.65
94.55 97
94.42* 97.24*
93.55* 97.55
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 8634.17 and 8561.40(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8495.80, where correction also can be. Then follows 8463.00. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8426.22. Continuation will bring 8392.44.Today's resistance: - 8808.80 and 8834.25(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8858.37, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8887.46, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8910.00. Continuation would bring 8927.28.
EURUSD
Comment: Pushing strongly higher and re-testing January's high at 1.4363 (December's 'spike high' was 1.4720). A sustained break above, and a weekly close over 1.4200 constitutes an important long term break forcing many to panic and flee the US dollar. Strategy: Buy at 1.4290, adding to 1.4200; stop well below 1.4000. Short term target 1.4330/1.4360, then a lot more with a first measured target at 1.4545
Direction of Trade: →↗ Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.4272 " 1.4332
1.42 1.4363*
1.4100* 1.44
1.4 1.443
1.39 1.4545
GBPUSD
Comment: Hot on the heels of this week's leaders, Aussie, Kiwi and Brazil, all the more extraordinary considering the political background. It just goes to show how overdone last year's sell-off had been. It has now retraced just over 38% of the decline from 2007's high 2.1172 and met the weekly Ichimoku 'cloud'. This might stall the rally this week but with spectacular bullish momentum we would not bank on it. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6585 but only if prepared to add to 1.6325; stop below 1.6000. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.6675 for 1.6800, maybe 1.7000. Direction of Trade: →↗ Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.6545 " 1.6595
1.64 1.6658*
1.6324 1.6700*
1.62 1.6800*
1.6000* 1.69
USDJPY
Comment: Still thrashing around roughly between 95.00 and 97.00 although the daily ranges are shrinking a little. Expect more of the same today as the Yen looks for direction, where it should eventually take its lead from what other currencies are doing. Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 95.90/96.25; stop above 97.35. First target 95.00, adding to shorts below 94.40 for 94.00 and then 93.65. Direction of Trade: →
Support Resistance
95.35 " 96.01
95 96.65
94.55 97
94.42* 97.24*
93.55* 97.55
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 8634.17 and 8561.40(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8495.80, where correction also can be. Then follows 8463.00. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8426.22. Continuation will bring 8392.44.Today's resistance: - 8808.80 and 8834.25(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8858.37, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8887.46, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8910.00. Continuation would bring 8927.28.
Potensi Penurunan Euro & Pound Terbatas
USD Index 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low EUR-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
78.51 89.62 (04/03) 78.47 (03/06) 1.4322 1.4331 (02/06) 1.2459 (04/03)
Dolar AS masih mendapatkan pukulan demi pukulan terhadap mata uang global, terutama mata uang yang memiliki tingkat suku bunga yang lebih tinggi seperti euro, pound dan aussie. Dolar AS kian terpuruk di sesi Asia hari ini, melemah ke level terendah 7-bulan, setelah mantan chairman Fed Paul Volcker mengatakan pemulihan ekonomi dapat memakan waktu tahunan dan spekulasi data ADP Employer Services AS bulan Mei menunjukkan perusahaan AS akan memangkas 520,000 tenaga kerja, setelah mengurangi pekerja sebesar 491,000 di bulan April. Komentar Presiden Rusia Dmitry Medvedev mengatakan mata uang supranational yang baru dapat memberikan pondasi untuk sebuah sistem finansial yang baru. Medvedev telah berulang kali menyarankan pembuatan mata uang cadangan regional alternatif untuk mengatasi krisis finansial global. Medvedev mungkin akan mendiskusikan proposalnya untuk menciptakan mata uang dunia baru bilamana bertemu dengan rekanan dari Brazil, India dan China di bulan ini. Data Pending Home Sales AS bulan April tercatat meningkat 6.7%, memicu spekulasi bahwa kondisi tersebut di pasar perumahan AS mungkin telah mencapai bottom. Pasar akan mengamati testimony Fed Bernanke nanti malam mengenai ekonomi, diikuti rilisan data Factory Orders dan ISM Services bulan Mei diperkirakan meningkat ke 45.0 dari 43.7, seharusnya memberikan momentum pelemahan untuk dolar karena investor memburu aset yang beresiko seperti saham dan komoditi yang menghasilkan tingkat keuntungan yang lebih tinggi.
Euro kian perkasa terhadap dolar di sesi Asia hari ini, dimana mencapai level tertinggi 7-bulan di $ 1.4328, setelah euro mendapatkan serangkaian sentimen positif dan faktor teknikal yang positif baru-baru ini. Setelah General Motor Corp AS mengajukan kebangkrutan dan pemerintah menalangi $ 30 miliar untuk menghindari kejatuhan GM, dimana meningkatkan beban defisit anggaran pemerintah, memicu kembali spekulasi penurunan rating hutang AS. Sejumlah data dari Eropa, Jepang, China dan AS yang mayoritas tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan, meningkatkan permintaan untuk euro sebagai cadangan devisa negara oleh sejumlah bank sentral global dan mengangkat saham global yang mencapai tertinggi 7-bulan dan harga komoditi global meningkat ke level tertinggi 6-bulan (minyak $ 68.72/barel, emas $987/troy ons), menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang dolar. Komentar Presiden Rusia Dmitry Medvedev mengenai alternatif mata uang baru global, ikut memukul sentimen untuk dolar dan angkat sentimen euro. Meski data pengangguran euro meningkat ke level 9.2% di bulan April, level tertinggi 1-dekade, dari 8.9% di bulan Maret. Sementara ekonomi zona euro terlihat mulai stabil dan lemahnya sektor tenaga kerja di zona euro menunjukkan peluang ECB akan mempertahankan kebijakan pelonggaran (easing) moneter. Sejumlah data ekonomi Euro dan AS, diikuti Testimony Fed Bernanke masih dukung penguatan euro dolar.
USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
95.65 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.6631 1.6656 (03/06) 1.3502 (23/01)
Yen menguat terhadap mata uang yang memiliki suku bunga yang lebih tinggi termasuk terhadap dolar Selandia Baru dan Rand Afrika Selatan di sesi Asia hari ini, sebelum laporan tenaga kerja AS yang akan menunjukkan pemangkasan tenaga kerja yang lebih besar di bulan Mei, mendorong permintaan untuk aset yang lebih aman seperti yen. Yen juga menguat terhadap 13 dari 16 mata aung yang paling aktif diperdagangkan setelah mantan Kepala Federal Reserve Paul Volcker mengatakan pemulihan ekonomi AS masih butuh waktu tahunan, meredam optimisme resesi global hampir selesai. Yen juga menguat setelah laporan pertumbuhan Australia secara tidak terduga meningkat lebih dari perkiraan pasar di Q1 2009. sebelumnya yen diperdagangkan volatle kemarin, berkat isu latihan militer Korea Utara dapat dibatasi oleh pengaruh dari komentar Komentar Presiden Rusia Dmitry Medvedev mengenai alternatif mata uang baru global, ikut memukul sentimen dolar dan angkat sentimen yen. Yen sempat melemah ke terendah Y 96.64 sebelum mengarah ke level tertinggi Y 95.34 meski akhirnya ditutup di 95.48, menguat 119 pips dari penutupan sebelumnya. Investor dan trader hari ini masih mencari bkti lebih lanjut dari pemulihan ekonomi global dari rilisan data Eropa, AS, dan testimony Fed Bernanke.
Pound sterling melanjutkan penguatan terhadap dolar dan yen di sesi Asia hari ini, setelah sejumlah data ekonomi AS dan Eropa memberikan bukti pemulihan ekonomi global mulai stabil. Pemulihan ekonomi Inggris lebih cepat dari ekonomi euro dan AS, ikut membantu menguatkan pound. Di sesi Asia hari ini, data consumer confidence Nationwide Building Society, meningkat +2 poin menjadi 53 di bulan Mei ke level tertinggi 6-bulan karena konsumen menjadi lebih optimis, ekonomi akan pulih dari resesi. Sebelumnya laporan Mortgage Approvals Inggris meningkat lebih tinggi dari perkiraan ekonom di bulan April merupakan level tertinggi hampir setahun, meningkatkan permintaan untuk rumah karena terpuruknya pasar perumahan menunjukkan signal mereda. Besok bank sentral Inggris akan memutuskan suku bunga dan mungkin tidak akan melanjutkan rencana untuk membantu ekonomi dengan mencetak uang baru saat ini karena bukti yang muncul bahwa tekanan dari resesi mereda. BOE melaporkan konsumen meningkatkan net consumer credit sebesar 6 x lipat menjadi 314 juta pound di bulan lalu. Data ekonomi Eropa dan AS hari ini masih dukung penguatan pound terhadap dolar.
USD-CHF 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
1.0724 1.1965 (12/03) 1.0617 (02/01) 0.8240 0.8152 (01/06) 0.6248 (02/02)
Swiss franc kian menguat terhadap dolar di sesi Asia hari ini, menguat ke level tertinggi 7-bulan, setelah mantan chairman Fed Paul Volcker mengatakan pemulihan ekonomi dapat memakan waktu tahunan dan spekulasi data ADP Employer Services AS bulan Mei menunjukkan perusahaan AS akan memangkas 520,000 tenaga kerja, setelah mengurangi pekerja sebesar 491,000 di bulan April. Komentar Presiden Rusia Dmitry Medvedev mengenai alternatif mata uang baru global, ikut memukul sentimen dolar dan angkat sentimen yen. Sebelumnya data GDP Q1 Swiss menunjukkan kontraksi 0.8%, terburuk dalam hampir 15 tahun, berkat anjloknya ekspor sebesar 5.4% dari Q4 2008. Data Pending Home Sales AS bulan April tercatat meningkat 6.7%, ikut menguatkan CHF. Pasar akan mengamati testimony Fed Bernanke nanti malam mengenai ekonomi, diikuti rilisan data Factory Orders dan ISM Services AS malam ini.
Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) mengalami penguatan lebih lanjut di sesi Asia hari ini untuk pertama kali sejak September mencapai level tertinggi 8-bulan, karena data petumbuhan ekonomi Australia Q1 2009 tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan pasar, tercatat 0.4% dari prediksi pasar sebesar -0.2%. pertumbuhan tersebut memberikan signal bahwa ekonomi Australia secara teknis tidak mengalami resesi dalam 2 kuartal berturut-turut, dimana di Q4 2008 mengalami kontraksi 0.6%. Sebelumnya aussie dan kiwi menguat berkat komentar Presiden Rusia Dmitry Medvedev mengenai alternatif mata uang baru global selain dolar AS, telah menekan dolar AS terhadap mata uang global. Aussie dan kiwi juga masih mendapatkan momentum penguatan berkat kenaikan indeks komoditi CRB serta spekulasi data ADP Employer dan testimony Bernanke nanti malam.
Technical Analysis
(-50p) EUR-USD menunjukkan trend bullish karena berada dalam uptrend channel, menunjukkan pola bullish continuation meski tertahan di trendline 1.4330 kemarin, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan target trendline 1.4379/1.4403 (100.0 FE)/1.4621 (38.2 fibonacci retracement 1.2937-1.6029) Meski euro dibayangi kondisi teknikal Stochastic dan MACD extreme overbought, diikuti ADX trending up seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan lebih lanjut. Support berada di 1.4183 (50.0 FR)/1.4065 (100.0 FE)). Resistance di 1.4367 (upper channel)/1.4412. Euro dalam proses wave minute 5 extension- minor C zig zag - wave intermediate 4, potensi toppish di $ 1.44/4.6. Buy break 1.4340 & 1.4250 target di 1.4410 stop 60p, sell break 1.4200 target 1.4060 stop 50p, buy break 1.4410 target 1.4500 (reverse sell) target 1.4250 stop 50p.
(+50p) USDJPY masih menunjukkan pola head & shoulder dan downtrend channel, meski gagal menembus 96.66 (upper channel) kemarin memberikan tekanan kepada jpy target neckline H&S di 93.81. Sementara signal negatif muncul dari pola candle dark cloud, dengan ADX terkoreksi = divergence dengan harga, meski MACD dan menunjukkan oversold, stochastic menunjukkan crossing up memperlihat perkiraan range trading 95-97 hari ini. Jika ditutup dibawah level 95.45 (10-day MA) target 94.62/93.36 (downward channel). Resistance berada di 96.51 (upper channel)/97.00 (200-day MA)/98.40 (downtrend line). Buy break 96.55 target 97.80 stop 50p, sell 96.40 target 95.00 stop 20p. Buy 94.90 target 96.00 stop 50p.
(-30-50-50p). GBP-USD menunjukkan trend bullish mengarah ke resistance line di diagonal triangle di 1.6687 bilamana break dan ditutup diatas level tersebut akan mendukung bullish continuation pattern. Sementara Indikator MACD, Stochastic, ADX masih berada dalam kondiri trend up, volume menunjukkan kenaikan, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas hari ini. Penutupan GBP diatas 1.6217 (trendline support) dapat menopang GBP, untuk target 1.6829 (50.0 FR 1.3531-2.0153)/1.7030 (161.8 FE). Support berada di 1.6545/1.6445 (61.8 FE). Analisa EW menunjukkan proses wave motive minute 5 dalam wave impulse 3. Buy break 1.6690 target 1.6830 stop 50p. Sell break 1.6540 target 1.6300 stop 50p. Sell 1.6830 target 1.6550 stop 50p. Sell 1.7000 target 1.6550 stop 100p. Buy 1.6560 target 1.6680 stop 25p.
AUD-USD kembali mendapatkan signal positif dari formasi ascending triangle dan pola bulish continuation candle kemarin didukung oleh ADX, stochastic dan MACD yang masih uptrend, seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan aud hari ini. Meski trend masih bullish selama bertahan di atas 0.7855 (support line di ascending triangle), untuk target 0.8548 (upper channel))/0.8575 (100.0 FE). Support berada di 0.8160/0.6070. Elliot wave menunjukkan wave impulse minor 3 dalam koreksi wave intermediate C dalam primary B. Sell break 0.8060 target 0.7950 stop 50p, Buy 0.8165 target 0.8300 (closing) stop 60p, buy break 0.8550 target 0.9107 stop 100p. Sell 0.8430 target 0.8000.
78.51 89.62 (04/03) 78.47 (03/06) 1.4322 1.4331 (02/06) 1.2459 (04/03)
Dolar AS masih mendapatkan pukulan demi pukulan terhadap mata uang global, terutama mata uang yang memiliki tingkat suku bunga yang lebih tinggi seperti euro, pound dan aussie. Dolar AS kian terpuruk di sesi Asia hari ini, melemah ke level terendah 7-bulan, setelah mantan chairman Fed Paul Volcker mengatakan pemulihan ekonomi dapat memakan waktu tahunan dan spekulasi data ADP Employer Services AS bulan Mei menunjukkan perusahaan AS akan memangkas 520,000 tenaga kerja, setelah mengurangi pekerja sebesar 491,000 di bulan April. Komentar Presiden Rusia Dmitry Medvedev mengatakan mata uang supranational yang baru dapat memberikan pondasi untuk sebuah sistem finansial yang baru. Medvedev telah berulang kali menyarankan pembuatan mata uang cadangan regional alternatif untuk mengatasi krisis finansial global. Medvedev mungkin akan mendiskusikan proposalnya untuk menciptakan mata uang dunia baru bilamana bertemu dengan rekanan dari Brazil, India dan China di bulan ini. Data Pending Home Sales AS bulan April tercatat meningkat 6.7%, memicu spekulasi bahwa kondisi tersebut di pasar perumahan AS mungkin telah mencapai bottom. Pasar akan mengamati testimony Fed Bernanke nanti malam mengenai ekonomi, diikuti rilisan data Factory Orders dan ISM Services bulan Mei diperkirakan meningkat ke 45.0 dari 43.7, seharusnya memberikan momentum pelemahan untuk dolar karena investor memburu aset yang beresiko seperti saham dan komoditi yang menghasilkan tingkat keuntungan yang lebih tinggi.
Euro kian perkasa terhadap dolar di sesi Asia hari ini, dimana mencapai level tertinggi 7-bulan di $ 1.4328, setelah euro mendapatkan serangkaian sentimen positif dan faktor teknikal yang positif baru-baru ini. Setelah General Motor Corp AS mengajukan kebangkrutan dan pemerintah menalangi $ 30 miliar untuk menghindari kejatuhan GM, dimana meningkatkan beban defisit anggaran pemerintah, memicu kembali spekulasi penurunan rating hutang AS. Sejumlah data dari Eropa, Jepang, China dan AS yang mayoritas tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan, meningkatkan permintaan untuk euro sebagai cadangan devisa negara oleh sejumlah bank sentral global dan mengangkat saham global yang mencapai tertinggi 7-bulan dan harga komoditi global meningkat ke level tertinggi 6-bulan (minyak $ 68.72/barel, emas $987/troy ons), menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang dolar. Komentar Presiden Rusia Dmitry Medvedev mengenai alternatif mata uang baru global, ikut memukul sentimen untuk dolar dan angkat sentimen euro. Meski data pengangguran euro meningkat ke level 9.2% di bulan April, level tertinggi 1-dekade, dari 8.9% di bulan Maret. Sementara ekonomi zona euro terlihat mulai stabil dan lemahnya sektor tenaga kerja di zona euro menunjukkan peluang ECB akan mempertahankan kebijakan pelonggaran (easing) moneter. Sejumlah data ekonomi Euro dan AS, diikuti Testimony Fed Bernanke masih dukung penguatan euro dolar.
USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
95.65 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.6631 1.6656 (03/06) 1.3502 (23/01)
Yen menguat terhadap mata uang yang memiliki suku bunga yang lebih tinggi termasuk terhadap dolar Selandia Baru dan Rand Afrika Selatan di sesi Asia hari ini, sebelum laporan tenaga kerja AS yang akan menunjukkan pemangkasan tenaga kerja yang lebih besar di bulan Mei, mendorong permintaan untuk aset yang lebih aman seperti yen. Yen juga menguat terhadap 13 dari 16 mata aung yang paling aktif diperdagangkan setelah mantan Kepala Federal Reserve Paul Volcker mengatakan pemulihan ekonomi AS masih butuh waktu tahunan, meredam optimisme resesi global hampir selesai. Yen juga menguat setelah laporan pertumbuhan Australia secara tidak terduga meningkat lebih dari perkiraan pasar di Q1 2009. sebelumnya yen diperdagangkan volatle kemarin, berkat isu latihan militer Korea Utara dapat dibatasi oleh pengaruh dari komentar Komentar Presiden Rusia Dmitry Medvedev mengenai alternatif mata uang baru global, ikut memukul sentimen dolar dan angkat sentimen yen. Yen sempat melemah ke terendah Y 96.64 sebelum mengarah ke level tertinggi Y 95.34 meski akhirnya ditutup di 95.48, menguat 119 pips dari penutupan sebelumnya. Investor dan trader hari ini masih mencari bkti lebih lanjut dari pemulihan ekonomi global dari rilisan data Eropa, AS, dan testimony Fed Bernanke.
Pound sterling melanjutkan penguatan terhadap dolar dan yen di sesi Asia hari ini, setelah sejumlah data ekonomi AS dan Eropa memberikan bukti pemulihan ekonomi global mulai stabil. Pemulihan ekonomi Inggris lebih cepat dari ekonomi euro dan AS, ikut membantu menguatkan pound. Di sesi Asia hari ini, data consumer confidence Nationwide Building Society, meningkat +2 poin menjadi 53 di bulan Mei ke level tertinggi 6-bulan karena konsumen menjadi lebih optimis, ekonomi akan pulih dari resesi. Sebelumnya laporan Mortgage Approvals Inggris meningkat lebih tinggi dari perkiraan ekonom di bulan April merupakan level tertinggi hampir setahun, meningkatkan permintaan untuk rumah karena terpuruknya pasar perumahan menunjukkan signal mereda. Besok bank sentral Inggris akan memutuskan suku bunga dan mungkin tidak akan melanjutkan rencana untuk membantu ekonomi dengan mencetak uang baru saat ini karena bukti yang muncul bahwa tekanan dari resesi mereda. BOE melaporkan konsumen meningkatkan net consumer credit sebesar 6 x lipat menjadi 314 juta pound di bulan lalu. Data ekonomi Eropa dan AS hari ini masih dukung penguatan pound terhadap dolar.
USD-CHF 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
1.0724 1.1965 (12/03) 1.0617 (02/01) 0.8240 0.8152 (01/06) 0.6248 (02/02)
Swiss franc kian menguat terhadap dolar di sesi Asia hari ini, menguat ke level tertinggi 7-bulan, setelah mantan chairman Fed Paul Volcker mengatakan pemulihan ekonomi dapat memakan waktu tahunan dan spekulasi data ADP Employer Services AS bulan Mei menunjukkan perusahaan AS akan memangkas 520,000 tenaga kerja, setelah mengurangi pekerja sebesar 491,000 di bulan April. Komentar Presiden Rusia Dmitry Medvedev mengenai alternatif mata uang baru global, ikut memukul sentimen dolar dan angkat sentimen yen. Sebelumnya data GDP Q1 Swiss menunjukkan kontraksi 0.8%, terburuk dalam hampir 15 tahun, berkat anjloknya ekspor sebesar 5.4% dari Q4 2008. Data Pending Home Sales AS bulan April tercatat meningkat 6.7%, ikut menguatkan CHF. Pasar akan mengamati testimony Fed Bernanke nanti malam mengenai ekonomi, diikuti rilisan data Factory Orders dan ISM Services AS malam ini.
Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) mengalami penguatan lebih lanjut di sesi Asia hari ini untuk pertama kali sejak September mencapai level tertinggi 8-bulan, karena data petumbuhan ekonomi Australia Q1 2009 tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan pasar, tercatat 0.4% dari prediksi pasar sebesar -0.2%. pertumbuhan tersebut memberikan signal bahwa ekonomi Australia secara teknis tidak mengalami resesi dalam 2 kuartal berturut-turut, dimana di Q4 2008 mengalami kontraksi 0.6%. Sebelumnya aussie dan kiwi menguat berkat komentar Presiden Rusia Dmitry Medvedev mengenai alternatif mata uang baru global selain dolar AS, telah menekan dolar AS terhadap mata uang global. Aussie dan kiwi juga masih mendapatkan momentum penguatan berkat kenaikan indeks komoditi CRB serta spekulasi data ADP Employer dan testimony Bernanke nanti malam.
Technical Analysis
(-50p) EUR-USD menunjukkan trend bullish karena berada dalam uptrend channel, menunjukkan pola bullish continuation meski tertahan di trendline 1.4330 kemarin, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan target trendline 1.4379/1.4403 (100.0 FE)/1.4621 (38.2 fibonacci retracement 1.2937-1.6029) Meski euro dibayangi kondisi teknikal Stochastic dan MACD extreme overbought, diikuti ADX trending up seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan lebih lanjut. Support berada di 1.4183 (50.0 FR)/1.4065 (100.0 FE)). Resistance di 1.4367 (upper channel)/1.4412. Euro dalam proses wave minute 5 extension- minor C zig zag - wave intermediate 4, potensi toppish di $ 1.44/4.6. Buy break 1.4340 & 1.4250 target di 1.4410 stop 60p, sell break 1.4200 target 1.4060 stop 50p, buy break 1.4410 target 1.4500 (reverse sell) target 1.4250 stop 50p.
(+50p) USDJPY masih menunjukkan pola head & shoulder dan downtrend channel, meski gagal menembus 96.66 (upper channel) kemarin memberikan tekanan kepada jpy target neckline H&S di 93.81. Sementara signal negatif muncul dari pola candle dark cloud, dengan ADX terkoreksi = divergence dengan harga, meski MACD dan menunjukkan oversold, stochastic menunjukkan crossing up memperlihat perkiraan range trading 95-97 hari ini. Jika ditutup dibawah level 95.45 (10-day MA) target 94.62/93.36 (downward channel). Resistance berada di 96.51 (upper channel)/97.00 (200-day MA)/98.40 (downtrend line). Buy break 96.55 target 97.80 stop 50p, sell 96.40 target 95.00 stop 20p. Buy 94.90 target 96.00 stop 50p.
(-30-50-50p). GBP-USD menunjukkan trend bullish mengarah ke resistance line di diagonal triangle di 1.6687 bilamana break dan ditutup diatas level tersebut akan mendukung bullish continuation pattern. Sementara Indikator MACD, Stochastic, ADX masih berada dalam kondiri trend up, volume menunjukkan kenaikan, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas hari ini. Penutupan GBP diatas 1.6217 (trendline support) dapat menopang GBP, untuk target 1.6829 (50.0 FR 1.3531-2.0153)/1.7030 (161.8 FE). Support berada di 1.6545/1.6445 (61.8 FE). Analisa EW menunjukkan proses wave motive minute 5 dalam wave impulse 3. Buy break 1.6690 target 1.6830 stop 50p. Sell break 1.6540 target 1.6300 stop 50p. Sell 1.6830 target 1.6550 stop 50p. Sell 1.7000 target 1.6550 stop 100p. Buy 1.6560 target 1.6680 stop 25p.
AUD-USD kembali mendapatkan signal positif dari formasi ascending triangle dan pola bulish continuation candle kemarin didukung oleh ADX, stochastic dan MACD yang masih uptrend, seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan aud hari ini. Meski trend masih bullish selama bertahan di atas 0.7855 (support line di ascending triangle), untuk target 0.8548 (upper channel))/0.8575 (100.0 FE). Support berada di 0.8160/0.6070. Elliot wave menunjukkan wave impulse minor 3 dalam koreksi wave intermediate C dalam primary B. Sell break 0.8060 target 0.7950 stop 50p, Buy 0.8165 target 0.8300 (closing) stop 60p, buy break 0.8550 target 0.9107 stop 100p. Sell 0.8430 target 0.8000.
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
Spekulasi BI Rate & Kenaikan Harga Komoditi Akan Topang IHSG
Market Review
Aksi profit-taking diantara saham unggulan yang telah menguat tajam dalam 1-2 hari ini, mengantisipasi keputusan suku bunga Bank Indonesia yang diperkirakan memotong suku bunga 25 bsp menjadi 7.0% dan testimony Chairman Fed Bernanke di hadapan Kongress AS hari ini. IHSG gagal ditutup di level psikologis 2,000 meski sempat menyentuh level tertinggi 2,043.948. Imbas dari aksi profit-taking di sejumlah saham komoditi dan infrastruktur unggulan yang terlihat mahal dan overbought, diikuti terkoreksinya sejumlah indeks saham regional Asia, ikut berperan menahan laju kenaikan IHSG. IHSG nyaris ditutup tidak berubah, naik tipis 0.063 poin, di 1,998.58, dengan total nilai transaksi di BEI tercatat Rp 8.635 triliun. Investor asing membukukan net buy Rp 751.72 miliar dari net buy Rp 939.771 miliar pada hari Senin (01/06).
Mayoritas indeks saham di Asia-Pacific terkoreksi turun, dipimpin oleh saham perbankan & energi, karena kekhawatiran Korea Utara akan meningkatkan latihan militer, meredam optimisme pemulihan ekonomi global dari imbas kenaikan harga minyak dan kenaikan data ekonomi China dan AS.
IHSG Outlook
Meski adanya faktor eksternal yang negatif dan kondisi teknikal yang overbought, menunjukkan potensi reversal minor dalam trend bullish jangka pendek, seharusnya masih dapat diatasi sejumlah sentimen positif di dalam negeri: kuatnya inflow ke saham lokal setelah investor asing melirik Indonesia menjadi target investasi, spekulasi penurunan suku bunga BI sebesar 25 bsp menjadi 7.0% hari ini dan pengaruh kenaikan harga minyak (target $ 77, 38.2% FR dari 147.27-33.2), emas (target $ 1,007/1,033) dan CPO (target Myr 3,000), seharusnya menopang kinerja IHSG. Kondisi tersebut seharusnya menunjukkan potensi penurunan IHSG terbatas dalam fase konsolidasi di bull market. Sementara potensi profit-taking menghadapi isu latihan militer Korea Utara, testimony Fed Bernanke, pertemuan bank sentral Eropa dan data tenaga kerja AS di akhir pekan, dapat membebani IHSG. Top Pick (Buy on weakness): BUMI, BBRI, SMGR, INDF, BBNI, BMRI, PTBA, ITMG, ELTY, INCO, ANTM, LSIP.
Stock Picks:
* BBRI
* BUMI
Global Outlook
Munculnya kembali kekhawatiran terhadap latihan militer Korea Utara, kondisi teknikal regional Asia menunjukkan bearish reversal (Kospi & Hang Seng) dan potensi profit-taking menjelang Testimony Chairman Fed Bernanke (Rabu-Kamis), Pertemuan ECB dan BOE (Kamis) dan data tenaga kerja AS (Jumat), dapat membatasi laju bull trend saham regional. Laporan EPFR Global di akhir pekan, menunjukkan total inflow sebesar $ 12 miliar dalam 4-pekan, mejadikan MSCI Emerging Markets termahal sejak 2007, diikuti dan Bullish money managers mengatakan saham emerging market akan menguat lebih lanjut karena investor memindahkan dana mereka $ 3.8 triliun di dana pasar uang ke bentuk saham, diikuti data Pending Home Sales AS meningkat di bulan April, seharusnya memberikan support kepada regional hari ini.
Technical Analysis:
Potensi profit-taking di IHSG masih menghantui momentum kenaikan dalam trend bullish jangka pendek, dimana IHSG mendapatkan signal negatif dari pola candle shooting star, menghadapi technical rejection di 2,050 (100.0 Fibonacci Expansion), meski indikator ADX, stochastic dan MACD menunjukkan trending up, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan potensi penurunan terbatas. Perkiraan tersebut mendukung analisa Elliot wave, IHSG berada dalam proses minute wave iii dalam minor wave impulse 5 dalam siklus koreksi intermediate wave 4 target 2,052 (100.0 FE)/2,118 (uptrend line - diagonal triangle) selama ditutup harian di atas 1,822 (downtrend channel). Support di 1,910 (10-day MA)/1,865 (20-day MA).
Resistance: 2063.50/2047.29/2031.07/2021.30. PP 2011.52
Support : 1995.30/1979.09/1969.31/1959.54/1933.54
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 1,950-2,030)
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www.universalbroker.co.id (code TF)
Aksi profit-taking diantara saham unggulan yang telah menguat tajam dalam 1-2 hari ini, mengantisipasi keputusan suku bunga Bank Indonesia yang diperkirakan memotong suku bunga 25 bsp menjadi 7.0% dan testimony Chairman Fed Bernanke di hadapan Kongress AS hari ini. IHSG gagal ditutup di level psikologis 2,000 meski sempat menyentuh level tertinggi 2,043.948. Imbas dari aksi profit-taking di sejumlah saham komoditi dan infrastruktur unggulan yang terlihat mahal dan overbought, diikuti terkoreksinya sejumlah indeks saham regional Asia, ikut berperan menahan laju kenaikan IHSG. IHSG nyaris ditutup tidak berubah, naik tipis 0.063 poin, di 1,998.58, dengan total nilai transaksi di BEI tercatat Rp 8.635 triliun. Investor asing membukukan net buy Rp 751.72 miliar dari net buy Rp 939.771 miliar pada hari Senin (01/06).
Mayoritas indeks saham di Asia-Pacific terkoreksi turun, dipimpin oleh saham perbankan & energi, karena kekhawatiran Korea Utara akan meningkatkan latihan militer, meredam optimisme pemulihan ekonomi global dari imbas kenaikan harga minyak dan kenaikan data ekonomi China dan AS.
IHSG Outlook
Meski adanya faktor eksternal yang negatif dan kondisi teknikal yang overbought, menunjukkan potensi reversal minor dalam trend bullish jangka pendek, seharusnya masih dapat diatasi sejumlah sentimen positif di dalam negeri: kuatnya inflow ke saham lokal setelah investor asing melirik Indonesia menjadi target investasi, spekulasi penurunan suku bunga BI sebesar 25 bsp menjadi 7.0% hari ini dan pengaruh kenaikan harga minyak (target $ 77, 38.2% FR dari 147.27-33.2), emas (target $ 1,007/1,033) dan CPO (target Myr 3,000), seharusnya menopang kinerja IHSG. Kondisi tersebut seharusnya menunjukkan potensi penurunan IHSG terbatas dalam fase konsolidasi di bull market. Sementara potensi profit-taking menghadapi isu latihan militer Korea Utara, testimony Fed Bernanke, pertemuan bank sentral Eropa dan data tenaga kerja AS di akhir pekan, dapat membebani IHSG. Top Pick (Buy on weakness): BUMI, BBRI, SMGR, INDF, BBNI, BMRI, PTBA, ITMG, ELTY, INCO, ANTM, LSIP.
Stock Picks:
* BBRI
* BUMI
Global Outlook
Munculnya kembali kekhawatiran terhadap latihan militer Korea Utara, kondisi teknikal regional Asia menunjukkan bearish reversal (Kospi & Hang Seng) dan potensi profit-taking menjelang Testimony Chairman Fed Bernanke (Rabu-Kamis), Pertemuan ECB dan BOE (Kamis) dan data tenaga kerja AS (Jumat), dapat membatasi laju bull trend saham regional. Laporan EPFR Global di akhir pekan, menunjukkan total inflow sebesar $ 12 miliar dalam 4-pekan, mejadikan MSCI Emerging Markets termahal sejak 2007, diikuti dan Bullish money managers mengatakan saham emerging market akan menguat lebih lanjut karena investor memindahkan dana mereka $ 3.8 triliun di dana pasar uang ke bentuk saham, diikuti data Pending Home Sales AS meningkat di bulan April, seharusnya memberikan support kepada regional hari ini.
Technical Analysis:
Potensi profit-taking di IHSG masih menghantui momentum kenaikan dalam trend bullish jangka pendek, dimana IHSG mendapatkan signal negatif dari pola candle shooting star, menghadapi technical rejection di 2,050 (100.0 Fibonacci Expansion), meski indikator ADX, stochastic dan MACD menunjukkan trending up, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan potensi penurunan terbatas. Perkiraan tersebut mendukung analisa Elliot wave, IHSG berada dalam proses minute wave iii dalam minor wave impulse 5 dalam siklus koreksi intermediate wave 4 target 2,052 (100.0 FE)/2,118 (uptrend line - diagonal triangle) selama ditutup harian di atas 1,822 (downtrend channel). Support di 1,910 (10-day MA)/1,865 (20-day MA).
Resistance: 2063.50/2047.29/2031.07/2021.30. PP 2011.52
Support : 1995.30/1979.09/1969.31/1959.54/1933.54
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 1,950-2,030)
www.strategydesk.co.id
www.universalbroker.co.id (code TF)
Faktor Teknikal Regional Menunjukkan Signal Bearish Reversal Minor
SSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
9825 9690 9885 9590 9920 9715 10020 9255 9370 9600 9945 10060 10290
Commentary
Secara teknikal, SSIM9 berada dalam trend bullish karena menunjukkan pola diagonal triangle, meski ada signal negatif dari pola candle daily bearish harami dan indikator teknikal stochastic daily crossing (K% & D%), MACD masih uptrend dan ADX menunjukkan kenaikan, dukung perkiraan penurunan terbatas selama indeks ditutup diatas 9,484 (uptrend line) dan berpotensi mengarah naik ke target 9968/10349 (161.8 FE). Sementara support berada di 9625 (61.8 FE))/9498 (61.8 FR) yang seharusnya masih menopang kinerja uptrend indeks dalam beberapa hari mendatang. Perkiraan range hari ini pada kisaran 9600-9850.
Rekomendasi : Sell break 9660 target 9490, stop 100p, Buy 9,490 target 9800 stop 100p, Sell 9960 target 9765 stop 50p. Sel break 9450 target 9220 stop 60p.
KSM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
180.00 181.3 183.0 180.3 183.0 181.2 184.0 174.9 177.2 178.6 182.4 184.7 186.1
Commentary
Secara teknikal, KSM9 masih berada dalam kondisi uptrend, meski menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola pennant dan pola candle belt hold. Indikator teknikal menunjukkan signal negatif ditunjukkan meski stochastic & ADX daily menunjukkan flat, meski indikator MACD menunjukkan kenaikan. Selama indeks ditutup diatas downtrend support line 174.62, potensi kenaikan masih terbuka. Resistance berada di 183.16 (resistance line))/188.52 (161.8 FE). Sementara trend dapat berbalik bearish jika indeks ditutup dibawah 174.62, target 170.03 (support line)/165.00 (161.8 FE). Perkiraan range hari ini: 177.00-183.00
Rekomendasi : Sell break 178.50 target 176.30/174.60 stop 100p, buy 176.30 target 179.00 stop 60p. Sell 181.80 target 179.10. Buy 174.60 target 179.00 stop 100p.
HSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
18349 18047 18359 17947 18438 18125 18538 17563 17905 18123 18683 19025 19243
Commentary
Secara teknikal, kegagalan breakout level 18,865 (resistance line) untuk target 18941 (61.8 FE) di hourly chart, mendorong aksi profit-taking, dengan menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola candle daily bearish engulfing dan trend berbalik netral untuk jangka pendek, setelah trendline support berhasil ditembus kemarin. Sementara indeks mendapatkan support di 18,244(61.8 FE), jika break target 17972 (61.8 FR)/17710 (50.0 FR) dan mengisi gap di kisaran 18182. Indikator ADX, stochastic dan MACD menunjukkan koreksi dukung potensi penurunan. Perkiraan range hari Selasa : 18.100-18.600.
Rekomendasi : Sell break 18170 target 17700 (or closing) stop 100 p. Sell break 16850 target 16555 stop 60 poin. Sell 18610 target 18180 stop 100p. Buy break 18.420 target 18610 stop 100p (+250p)
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9825 9690 9885 9590 9920 9715 10020 9255 9370 9600 9945 10060 10290
Commentary
Secara teknikal, SSIM9 berada dalam trend bullish karena menunjukkan pola diagonal triangle, meski ada signal negatif dari pola candle daily bearish harami dan indikator teknikal stochastic daily crossing (K% & D%), MACD masih uptrend dan ADX menunjukkan kenaikan, dukung perkiraan penurunan terbatas selama indeks ditutup diatas 9,484 (uptrend line) dan berpotensi mengarah naik ke target 9968/10349 (161.8 FE). Sementara support berada di 9625 (61.8 FE))/9498 (61.8 FR) yang seharusnya masih menopang kinerja uptrend indeks dalam beberapa hari mendatang. Perkiraan range hari ini pada kisaran 9600-9850.
Rekomendasi : Sell break 9660 target 9490, stop 100p, Buy 9,490 target 9800 stop 100p, Sell 9960 target 9765 stop 50p. Sel break 9450 target 9220 stop 60p.
KSM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
180.00 181.3 183.0 180.3 183.0 181.2 184.0 174.9 177.2 178.6 182.4 184.7 186.1
Commentary
Secara teknikal, KSM9 masih berada dalam kondisi uptrend, meski menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola pennant dan pola candle belt hold. Indikator teknikal menunjukkan signal negatif ditunjukkan meski stochastic & ADX daily menunjukkan flat, meski indikator MACD menunjukkan kenaikan. Selama indeks ditutup diatas downtrend support line 174.62, potensi kenaikan masih terbuka. Resistance berada di 183.16 (resistance line))/188.52 (161.8 FE). Sementara trend dapat berbalik bearish jika indeks ditutup dibawah 174.62, target 170.03 (support line)/165.00 (161.8 FE). Perkiraan range hari ini: 177.00-183.00
Rekomendasi : Sell break 178.50 target 176.30/174.60 stop 100p, buy 176.30 target 179.00 stop 60p. Sell 181.80 target 179.10. Buy 174.60 target 179.00 stop 100p.
HSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
18349 18047 18359 17947 18438 18125 18538 17563 17905 18123 18683 19025 19243
Commentary
Secara teknikal, kegagalan breakout level 18,865 (resistance line) untuk target 18941 (61.8 FE) di hourly chart, mendorong aksi profit-taking, dengan menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola candle daily bearish engulfing dan trend berbalik netral untuk jangka pendek, setelah trendline support berhasil ditembus kemarin. Sementara indeks mendapatkan support di 18,244(61.8 FE), jika break target 17972 (61.8 FR)/17710 (50.0 FR) dan mengisi gap di kisaran 18182. Indikator ADX, stochastic dan MACD menunjukkan koreksi dukung potensi penurunan. Perkiraan range hari Selasa : 18.100-18.600.
Rekomendasi : Sell break 18170 target 17700 (or closing) stop 100 p. Sell break 16850 target 16555 stop 60 poin. Sell 18610 target 18180 stop 100p. Buy break 18.420 target 18610 stop 100p (+250p)
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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Intraday bias in Crude oil remains on the upside with 66.24 minor support intact and further rise is still in favor. Note that sustained trading mentioned 55 weeks EMA at 67.32 and 55 months EMA at 68.98 will set the stage for further rise to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next. On the downside, below 66.24 will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring consolidation. But break of 59.61 support is needed to suggest that crude oil has topped out. Otherwise, short term outlook remains bullish.
In the bigger picture, the question remains on whether the rise from 33.2 represent reversal in trend in crude oil, or it's merely a correction in the larger down trend. But in any case, rise from 33.2 should still be in force as long as 56.07 support holds. Sustained trading above mentioned 55 weeks and 55 months EMA will pave the way to stronger rally to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next, with prospect of extending to key cluster level at 90, (90% retracement at 90.23). On the downside, below 56.07 will be the first signal that rebound from 33.2 has completed and will turn focus to channel support (now at 53.16) for confirmation.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Intraday bias in Crude oil remains on the upside with 66.24 minor support intact and further rise is still in favor. Note that sustained trading mentioned 55 weeks EMA at 67.32 and 55 months EMA at 68.98 will set the stage for further rise to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next. On the downside, below 66.24 will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring consolidation. But break of 59.61 support is needed to suggest that crude oil has topped out. Otherwise, short term outlook remains bullish.
In the bigger picture, the question remains on whether the rise from 33.2 represent reversal in trend in crude oil, or it's merely a correction in the larger down trend. But in any case, rise from 33.2 should still be in force as long as 56.07 support holds. Sustained trading above mentioned 55 weeks and 55 months EMA will pave the way to stronger rally to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next, with prospect of extending to key cluster level at 90, (90% retracement at 90.23). On the downside, below 56.07 will be the first signal that rebound from 33.2 has completed and will turn focus to channel support (now at 53.16) for confirmation.
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold |
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold retreats after hitting channel resistance and with an intraday top in place at 989.6, some consolidation could now be seen. But after all, recent rally should still be in force as long as channel support (now at 944) holds. Above 989.6 will target 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone. Break there will confirm up trend resumption and target 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 865 at 1066.9 next. On the downside, however, break of the channel support will argue that a short term top in at least in place and bring deeper decline.
In the bigger picture, the break of 967.7 resistance last week confirmed that correction from 1007.7 has completed at 865 already. Rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of whole rally from 681 as well as resumption of long term up trend. Having said that, we'd look forward to a break of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone to resume the long term up trend. In such case, next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160.
Nevertheless, a break below 945.8 support will firstly suggest that rise from 865 has completed. More importantly, it will open up the case that that consolidation from 1007.7 is still in progress for a test of 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) before completion. Hence, the bullish view will be delayed in such case.
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold retreats after hitting channel resistance and with an intraday top in place at 989.6, some consolidation could now be seen. But after all, recent rally should still be in force as long as channel support (now at 944) holds. Above 989.6 will target 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone. Break there will confirm up trend resumption and target 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 865 at 1066.9 next. On the downside, however, break of the channel support will argue that a short term top in at least in place and bring deeper decline.
In the bigger picture, the break of 967.7 resistance last week confirmed that correction from 1007.7 has completed at 865 already. Rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of whole rally from 681 as well as resumption of long term up trend. Having said that, we'd look forward to a break of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone to resume the long term up trend. In such case, next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160.
Nevertheless, a break below 945.8 support will firstly suggest that rise from 865 has completed. More importantly, it will open up the case that that consolidation from 1007.7 is still in progress for a test of 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) before completion. Hence, the bullish view will be delayed in such case.
Shanghai A Share Index to ‘Consolidate’: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- China’s Shanghai A Share Stock Price Index will probably “consolidate” as it nears a key resistance level of 3,000, UOB-Kay Hian Holdings Ltd. said. The index touched a high of 2,862.15 yesterday, surpassing UOB-Kay Hian’s April 23 forecast of 2,860, Hong Kong-based analyst Barole Shiu said in a report today. The resistance level of 3,000 is 5 percent higher than yesterday’s close. “Though the gapping up is accompanied by heavy trading, the upward momentum could be partially offset by the negative divergence of the moving average convergence/divergence,” or MACD indicator, Hong Kong-based Shiu wrote in a report today. The indicator compares nine-, 12- and 26-day moving averages to assess whether a price shift is a change in trend or a short- term deviation.
As of yesterday, the Shanghai A Share index had gained 49 percent this year. The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks both local currency A shares and foreign currency B shares, had advanced by the same amount, making it the fourth-best performer among Asian benchmark indexes tracked by Bloomberg. Any advance above 3,118, marking a 61.8 percent retracement of the slump from the May 2008 high, based on a Fibonacci chart, will prompt UOB-Kay Hian to raise the index’s resistance level to between 3,373 and 3,475, the analyst wrote.Fibonacci analysis uses ratios, which are based on the sequence identified by an Italian mathematician in the 13th century, to predict support and resistance levels for prices. Sentiment will “turn sour” if the 50-day moving average doesn’t hold at the current level of about 2,618 and if the MACD indicator falls below zero as the Shanghai A Share Index consolidates, Shiu said in the report. The scenario is “less likely,” he added.
As of yesterday, the Shanghai A Share index had gained 49 percent this year. The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks both local currency A shares and foreign currency B shares, had advanced by the same amount, making it the fourth-best performer among Asian benchmark indexes tracked by Bloomberg. Any advance above 3,118, marking a 61.8 percent retracement of the slump from the May 2008 high, based on a Fibonacci chart, will prompt UOB-Kay Hian to raise the index’s resistance level to between 3,373 and 3,475, the analyst wrote.Fibonacci analysis uses ratios, which are based on the sequence identified by an Italian mathematician in the 13th century, to predict support and resistance levels for prices. Sentiment will “turn sour” if the 50-day moving average doesn’t hold at the current level of about 2,618 and if the MACD indicator falls below zero as the Shanghai A Share Index consolidates, Shiu said in the report. The scenario is “less likely,” he added.
USD Mendapatkan Signal Reversal Bullish Minor
USD Index 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low EUR-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
79.33 89.62 (04/03) 78.59 (01/06) 1.4128 1.4246 (01/06) 1.2459 (04/03)
Dolar AS masih tertekan di sesi Asia hari ini terhadap mata uang Eropa, meski menguat terhadap yen, setelah laju kenaikan pasar saham global dan harga minyak tertahan. Meski dolar menguat terhadap yen karena investor Jepang memburu aset di luar negeri yang menghaslkan keuntungan lebih tinggi. Laporan kebangkrutan General Motor Corp AS kemarin, yang mendapatkan suntikan dana dari pemerintah sebesar $ 30 miliar, atau 60% kepemilikan saham, berperan melemahkan dolar AS, akibat kekhawatiran tingkat pengangguran di AS akan meningkat dan spekulasi kenaikan harga komoditi akan meningkatkan permintaan untuk tambang, pertanian dan logam, dimana dapat mendorong pemulihan ekonomi global. Meningkatnya sentimen investor terangkat oleh optimisme pada umumnya data manufakturing euro, Inggris dan AS yang tercatat di atas perkiraan pasar. Indeks manufakturing ISM AS bulan Mei meningkat ke 42.8, dari 4.1 di bulan sebelumnya, merupakan level tertinggi sejak September 2008. Serangkaian sentimen positif tersebut mendorong spekulasi bahwa keterpurukan ekonomi globa mungkin telah berakhir, mendorong investor mengambil resiko lebih besar. Saham global melejit, harga minyak melonjak diatas $68/barel dan dolar Australia dan dolar Selandia Baru mencapai level tertinggi 8-bulan di 0.8152 & 0.6563. Meski potensi pelemahan dolar terbatas menjelang testimony Fed Bernanke hari Rabu-Kamis dan adanya strong support di indeks USD di 77.00, dapat mendorong aksi profit-taking.
Penguatan euro terhadap dolar di sesi Asia tertahan berkat adanya aksi profit-taking posisi long euro, setelah laju kenaikan pasar saham Asia Pasifik dan komoditi global tertahan. Dimana euro sempat mencapai level tertinggi 1.4246 (level tertinggi 7 bulan) kemarin, setelah spekulasi General Motor Corp dan kekhawatiran terhadap beban hutang pemerintah AS dapat mendorong penurunan rating kredit AAA. Euro juga menguat terhadap yen Jepang berkat spekulasi investor Jepang memburu aset yang lebih beresiko di luar negeri yang dapat menghasilkan tingkat keuntungan yang lebih besar. Sebelumnya euro kemarin mendapatkan keuntungan dari data Purchasing Manager Index euro bulan Mei yang direvisi naik menjadi 40.7 dari 40.5, level tertinggi sejak musim semi lalu, meski dibawah level pertumbuhan 50. Laju penguatan euro diperkirakan terbatas menjelang laporan tenaga kerja euro yang menunjukkan tingkat pengangguran euro bulan April akan meningkat ke 9.1 persen, level tertinggi 4-tahun. Diikuti data ADM Employer AS bulan Mei, dirilis besok diperkirakan menunjukkan perusahaan di AS memangkas 525,000 pekerja di bulan lalu. Spekulasi penurunan suku bunga ECB pada pertemuan 4 Juni dari benchmark 1.0%, masih membebani kinerja euro. Sementara laporan UBS AG mendukung penguatan rally euro terhadap dolar mungkin akan memasuki “tahap akhir” , untuk target $ 1.30 dalam periode 3-bulan.
USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
96.20 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.6390 1.6496 (01/06) 1.3502 (23/01)
Yen mengalami penguatan terhadap dolar AS dan euro berkat spekulasi eksportir Jepang hari ini membawa kembali pendapatan dari luar negeri setelah mata uang euro mencapai level tertinggi 8-pekan. Yen juga menguat terhadap dolar berkat spekulasi Treasury anjlok kemarin akibat kekhawatiran beban hutang pemerintah AS akan membahayakan rating kredit AS. Dolar yen sempat mencapai tertinggi Y 96.80 dimana sebelumnya sempat meneyntuh level terendah Y 94.46 karena spekulasi kebangkrutan General Motor Corp AS kemarin. Lebih baik dari perkiraan data ekonomi manufakturing dari euro, Inggris dan AS, mendorong yen melemah terhadap dolar, karena kuatnya permintaan dari investor untuk saham dan komoditi global, yang menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang mata uang yen. Sementara permintaan untuk dolar hari ini terbatas, setelah mantan penasihat bank sentral China YU Yongding mengatakan beliau akan bertemu Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner hari ini dan memberitahukan Geithner bahwa AS seharusnya tidak membujuk China untuk membeli lebih lanjut Treasury AS. China dilaporkan memiliki treasury AS, senilai $ 767.9 miliar di Q4 2009. Potensi profit-taking short yen terhadap dolar dapat terjadi jika data Pending Home Sales AS bulan April tercatat di bawah perkiraa pasar.
Pound sterling mengalami aksi profit-taking terhadap dolar, setelah kemarin mencapai level tertinggi 7-bulan di 1.6496 kemarin, setelah data manufakturing dan harga rumah Inggris yang lebih baik dari perkiraan pasar, memberikan bukti bahwa ekonomi terbesar kedua di Eropa mulai pulih dari resesi. Pound menguat terhadap euro dan yen karena indeks saham FTSE 100 melonjak ke level tertinggi 3-pekan. Penguatan harga komoditi (minyak, emas, kakao) ke level tertinggi 8-bulan mendorong penguatan pound. Laporan Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply kemarin menunjukkan manufakturing Inggris meningkat ke 45.4 dari 43.1 di bulan sebelumnya, diatas median prediksi Bloomberg: 44. Harga rata-rata rumah di Inggris & Wales tidak berubah setelah merosot 0.3% di April. Laporan ekonomi tersebut memicu spekulasi suku bunga di rekor terendah dan paket stimulus akan membangkitkan ekonomi terkontraksi 1.9% di Q1 2009, level terburuk sejak 1979. Bnak sentral Inggris diperkirakan pertahankan suku bunga 0.5% dan meanjutkan rencana pembelian obligasi senilai 125 miliar pound untuk memuluskan pemulihan ekonomi, dapat memberikan support untuk GBP.
USD-CHF 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
1.0724 1.1965 (12/03) 1.0617 (02/01) 0.8071 0.8152 (01/06) 0.6248 (02/02)
Swiss franc masih tertekan di sesi Asia hari ini terhadap dolar, setelah laju kenaikan pasar saham global dan harga minyak tertahan. Laporan kebangkrutan General Motor Corp AS kemarin, yang mendapatkan suntikan dana dari pemerintah sebesar $ 30 miliar, atau 60% kepemilikan saham, berperan melemahkan dolar AS, akibat kekhawatiran tingkat pengangguran di AS akan meningkat dan spekulasi kenaikan harga komoditi akan meningkatkan permintaan untuk tambang, pertanian dan logam, dimana dapat mendorong pemulihan ekonomi global. Meningkatnya sentimen investor terangkat oleh optimisme data manufakturing euro, Inggris dan AS tercatat di atas perkiraan pasar. Indeks manufakturing ISM AS bulan Mei meningkat ke 42.8, dari 4.1 di bulan sebelumnya, merupakan level tertinggi sejak September 2008. Meski potensi pelemahan Swiss franc terbatas menjelang testimony Fed Bernanke hari Rabu-Kamis dan data Pending Home Sales AS malam ini, dapat mendorong aksi profit-taking.
Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) terkoreksi dari level tertinggi 8-bulan kemarin, karena spekulasi penguatan aussie dan kiwi mungkin dianggap terlalu cepat setelah aussie dan kiwi mengalami penguatan terbesar dalam 24 tahun terakhir. Aussie terkoreksi di sesi Asia hari ini setelah laporan biro statistik Australia mengatakan defisit neraca perdagangan menyusut di kuartal pertama lebih dari perkiraan ekonom. Aussie menguat dalam 3 bulan terakhir dan bank sentral mempertahankan suku bunga 3.0% untuk bulan ke-2. Aussie terkoreksi ke $ 0.8062 di sesi Asia setelah kemarin sempat mencapai level tertinggi 0.8153, leve tertinggi sejak 29 September. Current account Australia meyusut menjadi A$ 4.61 miliar ($ 3.7 miliar). Building Approval meningkat di bulan April untuk bulan ke-3, naik 5.1% dari bulan Maret. Meski potensi penguatan aussie terbatas menjelang data GDP Q1 Australia diperkirakan -0.2% dirilis besok.
Technical Analysis
(-50p) EUR-USD menunjukkan trend bullish karena masih berada dalam uptrend channel, kendati mulai mendapatkan signal bearish reversal dari pola candle shooting star dan technical rejection di 1.4246 (upper channel) kemarin. Meski euro dibayangi oleh kondisi teknikal Stochastic dan MACD yang extreme overbought, diikuti ADX masih menunjukkan kenaikan seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan euro terbatas. Support berada di 1.4086 (61.8 FE)/1.3985 (100.0 FE)). Resistance di 1.4277 (upper channel)/1.4329. Euro dalam proses koreksi wave minute 5 - minor C zig zag - wave intermediate 4, potensi toppish di $ 1.4246/1,4277 (upper channel). Buy 1.4080 target di 1.4270 stop 30p, sell break 1.4050 target 1.3900 stop 50p, Sell 1.4270 target 1.4100 stop 50p.
(+85p) USDJPY masih menunjukkan pola head & shoulder dan downtrend channel, meski gagal menembus 96.81 (upper channel) kemarin memberikan tekanan kepada jpy target neckline H&S di 93.81. Sementara signal positif muncul dari pola candle bullish harami, dengan ADX terkoreksi = divergence dengan harga, meski MACD dan menunjukkan oversold, stochastic menunjukkan crossing up memperlihat perkiraan range trading 95-97 hari ini. Jika ditutup dibawah level 95.40 (10-day MA) target 94.62/93.51 (downward channel). Resistance berada di 96.66 (upper channel)/97.01 (200-day MA)/98.44 (downtrend line). Sell 97.05 target 95.20 stop 97.60, sell break 95.95 target 95.00 stop 50p. Sell 98.40 target 96.00 stop 50p.
(-50-50p). GBP-USD menunjukkan trend bullish karena telah menembus resistance line di diagonal triangle meski mendapatkan technical rejection di 1.6296 (61.8 FE) menahan laju bullish continuation. Sementara Indikator MACD, Stochastic, ADX masih berada dalam kondiri trend up, volume menunjukkan kenaikan, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas hari ini. Penutupan GBP diatas 1.6127 (trendline support) dapat menopang GBP, untuk target 1.6496 (61.8 FE))/1.6564 (resistance line). Analisa EW menunjukkan proses wave motive minute 5 dalam wave impulse 3. Sell break 1.6340 target 1.6210 stop 50p. Sell 1.6490 target 1.6300 stop 50p. Sell 1.6560 target 1.6300 stop 50p. Buy 1.6360 target 1.6490 stop 30p. Buy 1.6210 target 1.6400.
AUD-USD mulai mendapatkan signal negatif dari pola candle three white soldier kemarin didukung oleh ADX, stochastic dan MACD yang masih uptrend, seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan aud hari ini. Meski trend masih bullish selama bertahan di atas 0.7838 (support line di ascending triangle), untuk target 0.8162 (100.0 FE))/0.8429 (161.8 FE). Elliot wave menunjukkan wave impulse minor 3 dalam koreksi wave intermediate C dalam primary B. Sell break 0.8030 target 0.7900 stop 50p, Buy 0.7900 target 0.8100 (closing) stop 45p, buy 0.8050 target 0.8160 stop 25p. Sell 0.8430 target 0.8000.
79.33 89.62 (04/03) 78.59 (01/06) 1.4128 1.4246 (01/06) 1.2459 (04/03)
Dolar AS masih tertekan di sesi Asia hari ini terhadap mata uang Eropa, meski menguat terhadap yen, setelah laju kenaikan pasar saham global dan harga minyak tertahan. Meski dolar menguat terhadap yen karena investor Jepang memburu aset di luar negeri yang menghaslkan keuntungan lebih tinggi. Laporan kebangkrutan General Motor Corp AS kemarin, yang mendapatkan suntikan dana dari pemerintah sebesar $ 30 miliar, atau 60% kepemilikan saham, berperan melemahkan dolar AS, akibat kekhawatiran tingkat pengangguran di AS akan meningkat dan spekulasi kenaikan harga komoditi akan meningkatkan permintaan untuk tambang, pertanian dan logam, dimana dapat mendorong pemulihan ekonomi global. Meningkatnya sentimen investor terangkat oleh optimisme pada umumnya data manufakturing euro, Inggris dan AS yang tercatat di atas perkiraan pasar. Indeks manufakturing ISM AS bulan Mei meningkat ke 42.8, dari 4.1 di bulan sebelumnya, merupakan level tertinggi sejak September 2008. Serangkaian sentimen positif tersebut mendorong spekulasi bahwa keterpurukan ekonomi globa mungkin telah berakhir, mendorong investor mengambil resiko lebih besar. Saham global melejit, harga minyak melonjak diatas $68/barel dan dolar Australia dan dolar Selandia Baru mencapai level tertinggi 8-bulan di 0.8152 & 0.6563. Meski potensi pelemahan dolar terbatas menjelang testimony Fed Bernanke hari Rabu-Kamis dan adanya strong support di indeks USD di 77.00, dapat mendorong aksi profit-taking.
Penguatan euro terhadap dolar di sesi Asia tertahan berkat adanya aksi profit-taking posisi long euro, setelah laju kenaikan pasar saham Asia Pasifik dan komoditi global tertahan. Dimana euro sempat mencapai level tertinggi 1.4246 (level tertinggi 7 bulan) kemarin, setelah spekulasi General Motor Corp dan kekhawatiran terhadap beban hutang pemerintah AS dapat mendorong penurunan rating kredit AAA. Euro juga menguat terhadap yen Jepang berkat spekulasi investor Jepang memburu aset yang lebih beresiko di luar negeri yang dapat menghasilkan tingkat keuntungan yang lebih besar. Sebelumnya euro kemarin mendapatkan keuntungan dari data Purchasing Manager Index euro bulan Mei yang direvisi naik menjadi 40.7 dari 40.5, level tertinggi sejak musim semi lalu, meski dibawah level pertumbuhan 50. Laju penguatan euro diperkirakan terbatas menjelang laporan tenaga kerja euro yang menunjukkan tingkat pengangguran euro bulan April akan meningkat ke 9.1 persen, level tertinggi 4-tahun. Diikuti data ADM Employer AS bulan Mei, dirilis besok diperkirakan menunjukkan perusahaan di AS memangkas 525,000 pekerja di bulan lalu. Spekulasi penurunan suku bunga ECB pada pertemuan 4 Juni dari benchmark 1.0%, masih membebani kinerja euro. Sementara laporan UBS AG mendukung penguatan rally euro terhadap dolar mungkin akan memasuki “tahap akhir” , untuk target $ 1.30 dalam periode 3-bulan.
USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
96.20 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.6390 1.6496 (01/06) 1.3502 (23/01)
Yen mengalami penguatan terhadap dolar AS dan euro berkat spekulasi eksportir Jepang hari ini membawa kembali pendapatan dari luar negeri setelah mata uang euro mencapai level tertinggi 8-pekan. Yen juga menguat terhadap dolar berkat spekulasi Treasury anjlok kemarin akibat kekhawatiran beban hutang pemerintah AS akan membahayakan rating kredit AS. Dolar yen sempat mencapai tertinggi Y 96.80 dimana sebelumnya sempat meneyntuh level terendah Y 94.46 karena spekulasi kebangkrutan General Motor Corp AS kemarin. Lebih baik dari perkiraan data ekonomi manufakturing dari euro, Inggris dan AS, mendorong yen melemah terhadap dolar, karena kuatnya permintaan dari investor untuk saham dan komoditi global, yang menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang mata uang yen. Sementara permintaan untuk dolar hari ini terbatas, setelah mantan penasihat bank sentral China YU Yongding mengatakan beliau akan bertemu Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner hari ini dan memberitahukan Geithner bahwa AS seharusnya tidak membujuk China untuk membeli lebih lanjut Treasury AS. China dilaporkan memiliki treasury AS, senilai $ 767.9 miliar di Q4 2009. Potensi profit-taking short yen terhadap dolar dapat terjadi jika data Pending Home Sales AS bulan April tercatat di bawah perkiraa pasar.
Pound sterling mengalami aksi profit-taking terhadap dolar, setelah kemarin mencapai level tertinggi 7-bulan di 1.6496 kemarin, setelah data manufakturing dan harga rumah Inggris yang lebih baik dari perkiraan pasar, memberikan bukti bahwa ekonomi terbesar kedua di Eropa mulai pulih dari resesi. Pound menguat terhadap euro dan yen karena indeks saham FTSE 100 melonjak ke level tertinggi 3-pekan. Penguatan harga komoditi (minyak, emas, kakao) ke level tertinggi 8-bulan mendorong penguatan pound. Laporan Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply kemarin menunjukkan manufakturing Inggris meningkat ke 45.4 dari 43.1 di bulan sebelumnya, diatas median prediksi Bloomberg: 44. Harga rata-rata rumah di Inggris & Wales tidak berubah setelah merosot 0.3% di April. Laporan ekonomi tersebut memicu spekulasi suku bunga di rekor terendah dan paket stimulus akan membangkitkan ekonomi terkontraksi 1.9% di Q1 2009, level terburuk sejak 1979. Bnak sentral Inggris diperkirakan pertahankan suku bunga 0.5% dan meanjutkan rencana pembelian obligasi senilai 125 miliar pound untuk memuluskan pemulihan ekonomi, dapat memberikan support untuk GBP.
USD-CHF 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
1.0724 1.1965 (12/03) 1.0617 (02/01) 0.8071 0.8152 (01/06) 0.6248 (02/02)
Swiss franc masih tertekan di sesi Asia hari ini terhadap dolar, setelah laju kenaikan pasar saham global dan harga minyak tertahan. Laporan kebangkrutan General Motor Corp AS kemarin, yang mendapatkan suntikan dana dari pemerintah sebesar $ 30 miliar, atau 60% kepemilikan saham, berperan melemahkan dolar AS, akibat kekhawatiran tingkat pengangguran di AS akan meningkat dan spekulasi kenaikan harga komoditi akan meningkatkan permintaan untuk tambang, pertanian dan logam, dimana dapat mendorong pemulihan ekonomi global. Meningkatnya sentimen investor terangkat oleh optimisme data manufakturing euro, Inggris dan AS tercatat di atas perkiraan pasar. Indeks manufakturing ISM AS bulan Mei meningkat ke 42.8, dari 4.1 di bulan sebelumnya, merupakan level tertinggi sejak September 2008. Meski potensi pelemahan Swiss franc terbatas menjelang testimony Fed Bernanke hari Rabu-Kamis dan data Pending Home Sales AS malam ini, dapat mendorong aksi profit-taking.
Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) terkoreksi dari level tertinggi 8-bulan kemarin, karena spekulasi penguatan aussie dan kiwi mungkin dianggap terlalu cepat setelah aussie dan kiwi mengalami penguatan terbesar dalam 24 tahun terakhir. Aussie terkoreksi di sesi Asia hari ini setelah laporan biro statistik Australia mengatakan defisit neraca perdagangan menyusut di kuartal pertama lebih dari perkiraan ekonom. Aussie menguat dalam 3 bulan terakhir dan bank sentral mempertahankan suku bunga 3.0% untuk bulan ke-2. Aussie terkoreksi ke $ 0.8062 di sesi Asia setelah kemarin sempat mencapai level tertinggi 0.8153, leve tertinggi sejak 29 September. Current account Australia meyusut menjadi A$ 4.61 miliar ($ 3.7 miliar). Building Approval meningkat di bulan April untuk bulan ke-3, naik 5.1% dari bulan Maret. Meski potensi penguatan aussie terbatas menjelang data GDP Q1 Australia diperkirakan -0.2% dirilis besok.
Technical Analysis
(-50p) EUR-USD menunjukkan trend bullish karena masih berada dalam uptrend channel, kendati mulai mendapatkan signal bearish reversal dari pola candle shooting star dan technical rejection di 1.4246 (upper channel) kemarin. Meski euro dibayangi oleh kondisi teknikal Stochastic dan MACD yang extreme overbought, diikuti ADX masih menunjukkan kenaikan seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan euro terbatas. Support berada di 1.4086 (61.8 FE)/1.3985 (100.0 FE)). Resistance di 1.4277 (upper channel)/1.4329. Euro dalam proses koreksi wave minute 5 - minor C zig zag - wave intermediate 4, potensi toppish di $ 1.4246/1,4277 (upper channel). Buy 1.4080 target di 1.4270 stop 30p, sell break 1.4050 target 1.3900 stop 50p, Sell 1.4270 target 1.4100 stop 50p.
(+85p) USDJPY masih menunjukkan pola head & shoulder dan downtrend channel, meski gagal menembus 96.81 (upper channel) kemarin memberikan tekanan kepada jpy target neckline H&S di 93.81. Sementara signal positif muncul dari pola candle bullish harami, dengan ADX terkoreksi = divergence dengan harga, meski MACD dan menunjukkan oversold, stochastic menunjukkan crossing up memperlihat perkiraan range trading 95-97 hari ini. Jika ditutup dibawah level 95.40 (10-day MA) target 94.62/93.51 (downward channel). Resistance berada di 96.66 (upper channel)/97.01 (200-day MA)/98.44 (downtrend line). Sell 97.05 target 95.20 stop 97.60, sell break 95.95 target 95.00 stop 50p. Sell 98.40 target 96.00 stop 50p.
(-50-50p). GBP-USD menunjukkan trend bullish karena telah menembus resistance line di diagonal triangle meski mendapatkan technical rejection di 1.6296 (61.8 FE) menahan laju bullish continuation. Sementara Indikator MACD, Stochastic, ADX masih berada dalam kondiri trend up, volume menunjukkan kenaikan, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas hari ini. Penutupan GBP diatas 1.6127 (trendline support) dapat menopang GBP, untuk target 1.6496 (61.8 FE))/1.6564 (resistance line). Analisa EW menunjukkan proses wave motive minute 5 dalam wave impulse 3. Sell break 1.6340 target 1.6210 stop 50p. Sell 1.6490 target 1.6300 stop 50p. Sell 1.6560 target 1.6300 stop 50p. Buy 1.6360 target 1.6490 stop 30p. Buy 1.6210 target 1.6400.
AUD-USD mulai mendapatkan signal negatif dari pola candle three white soldier kemarin didukung oleh ADX, stochastic dan MACD yang masih uptrend, seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan aud hari ini. Meski trend masih bullish selama bertahan di atas 0.7838 (support line di ascending triangle), untuk target 0.8162 (100.0 FE))/0.8429 (161.8 FE). Elliot wave menunjukkan wave impulse minor 3 dalam koreksi wave intermediate C dalam primary B. Sell break 0.8030 target 0.7900 stop 50p, Buy 0.7900 target 0.8100 (closing) stop 45p, buy 0.8050 target 0.8160 stop 25p. Sell 0.8430 target 0.8000.
Monday, June 1, 2009
IHSG Masih Mempunyai Power Bull Yang Strong
Market Review
Imbas melejitnya indeks saham regional Asia dan lebih rendah dari perkiraan data inflasi Indonesia bulan Mei, diikuti kenaikan harga komoditi global mencapai level tertinggi 7-bulan (harga minyak mencapai $ 68.29/barel, emas capai $ 988.50, nikel $14,455, cpo capai Myr 2,679), berperan melejitkan IHSG ke level tertinggi sejak 8 September 2008 kemarin. Demam pembagian dividen, penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar AS (penutupan Rp 10,230) dan laporan riset Credit Suisse yang menyatakan IHSG dapat menguat 19% ke 2,276 di akhir tahun, memberikan sentimen positif kepada IHSG. IHSG ditutup melonjak 81.749 poin (4.265%), ditutup di 1,998.58, dengan total nilai transaksi di BEI tercatat Rp 7.207 triliun. Investor asing membukukan net buy Rp 939.771 miliar dari net buy Rp 155.86 miliar pada hari Jumat (29/05).
Mayoritas indeks saham di Asia-Pacific masih melanjutkan laju kenaikan kemarin, karena laporan manufakturing China yang meningkat untuk ke-3 bulan di bulan Mei dan spekulasi General Motor Corp AS mengajukan kebangkrutan kemarin, mendorong kenaikan harga komoditi berkat spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi akan meningkatkan permintaan untuk logam, energi, pertanian.
IHSG Outlook
Munculnya sentimen positif dari dalam negeri seperti lebih baik dari perkiraan data inflasi Indonesia bulan Mei tercatat 0.04% m/m, 6.04% y/y, dibandingkan prediksi pasar 0.19% m/m, 6.20% y/y, yang memicu spekulasi penurunan suku bunga BI sebesar 25 bsp menjadi 7.0% pada petemuan RDG BI hari Rabu (03/06), diikuti Credit Suisse menaikkan target IHSG sebesar 19% menjadi 2,276 di akhir tahun dengan saham pilihan: ASII, UNTR, ITMG, ADRO, INTP, SMGR, BBRI, mampu mendorong saham unggulan. Sebelumnya IHSG mendapatkan power yang kuat dari euphoria pembagian dividen emiten unggulan dan laporan Citigroup di akhir pekan yang merubah rating Indonesia menjadi overweight bersama dengan Hong Kong dalam Asian Fund. Sementara isu pemulihan ekonomi global dan laporan GM Corp AS, masih memberikan support kepada IHSG. Top pick hari ini: ANTM,INCO,BUMI,PGAS,MEDC,ELSA,BBNI,LSIP,SMGR,UNSP,INDF.
Stock Picks:
* BBNI
* LSIP
Global Outlook
Indeks saham regional Asia diperkirakan masih mampu menguat lebih lanjut pada hari ini, berkat meningkatnya optimisme investor terhadap pemulihan ekonomi global setelah data manufakturing China dan data GDP Q1 India yang dirilis baru-baru ini, tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan pasar, meningkatkan permintaan untuk komoditas energi, pertambangan dan perkebunan. Laporan EPFR dari Massachusetts, Cambridge AS menunjukkan equity fund di negara emerging menambah $ 1.2 miliar di pekan 27 Mei dan Citigroup menaikkan rating overweight dari neutral: Taiwan, Indonesia, Hong Kong kendati menurunkan rating China, mendukung kuatnya inflow ke pasar saham regional Asia, menjelang testimony Fed Bernanke hari Rabu-Kamis.
Technical Analysis:
Power yang kuat di indikator ADX daily, MACD dan stochastic yang uptrend, didukung oleh pola candle bullish kicking dengan white maruzobu kemarin, seharusnya masih mendukung potensi kenaikan pada hari ini. Meski volume terlihat divergence dengan kenaikan harga, dapat picu potensi penurunan beberapa hari mendatang (alert: profit-taking). IHSG diperkirakan capai 2,050 (100.0 FE), dukung analisa Elliot wave, IHSG berada dalam proses minute wave iii dalam minor wave impulse 5 dalam siklus koreksi intermediate wave 4, 2,027 (161.8 FE)/2,100 (uptrend line - diagonal triangle) selama ditutup harian di atas 1,810 (downtrend channel). Support di 1,888 (10-day MA)/1,856 (20-day MA).
Resistance: 2093.23/2052.66/2039.14/2025.62. PP 1971.54
Support : 1958.02/1944.50/1917.45/1890.41
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 1,970-2,050)
Imbas melejitnya indeks saham regional Asia dan lebih rendah dari perkiraan data inflasi Indonesia bulan Mei, diikuti kenaikan harga komoditi global mencapai level tertinggi 7-bulan (harga minyak mencapai $ 68.29/barel, emas capai $ 988.50, nikel $14,455, cpo capai Myr 2,679), berperan melejitkan IHSG ke level tertinggi sejak 8 September 2008 kemarin. Demam pembagian dividen, penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar AS (penutupan Rp 10,230) dan laporan riset Credit Suisse yang menyatakan IHSG dapat menguat 19% ke 2,276 di akhir tahun, memberikan sentimen positif kepada IHSG. IHSG ditutup melonjak 81.749 poin (4.265%), ditutup di 1,998.58, dengan total nilai transaksi di BEI tercatat Rp 7.207 triliun. Investor asing membukukan net buy Rp 939.771 miliar dari net buy Rp 155.86 miliar pada hari Jumat (29/05).
Mayoritas indeks saham di Asia-Pacific masih melanjutkan laju kenaikan kemarin, karena laporan manufakturing China yang meningkat untuk ke-3 bulan di bulan Mei dan spekulasi General Motor Corp AS mengajukan kebangkrutan kemarin, mendorong kenaikan harga komoditi berkat spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi akan meningkatkan permintaan untuk logam, energi, pertanian.
IHSG Outlook
Munculnya sentimen positif dari dalam negeri seperti lebih baik dari perkiraan data inflasi Indonesia bulan Mei tercatat 0.04% m/m, 6.04% y/y, dibandingkan prediksi pasar 0.19% m/m, 6.20% y/y, yang memicu spekulasi penurunan suku bunga BI sebesar 25 bsp menjadi 7.0% pada petemuan RDG BI hari Rabu (03/06), diikuti Credit Suisse menaikkan target IHSG sebesar 19% menjadi 2,276 di akhir tahun dengan saham pilihan: ASII, UNTR, ITMG, ADRO, INTP, SMGR, BBRI, mampu mendorong saham unggulan. Sebelumnya IHSG mendapatkan power yang kuat dari euphoria pembagian dividen emiten unggulan dan laporan Citigroup di akhir pekan yang merubah rating Indonesia menjadi overweight bersama dengan Hong Kong dalam Asian Fund. Sementara isu pemulihan ekonomi global dan laporan GM Corp AS, masih memberikan support kepada IHSG. Top pick hari ini: ANTM,INCO,BUMI,PGAS,MEDC,ELSA,BBNI,LSIP,SMGR,UNSP,INDF.
Stock Picks:
* BBNI
* LSIP
Global Outlook
Indeks saham regional Asia diperkirakan masih mampu menguat lebih lanjut pada hari ini, berkat meningkatnya optimisme investor terhadap pemulihan ekonomi global setelah data manufakturing China dan data GDP Q1 India yang dirilis baru-baru ini, tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan pasar, meningkatkan permintaan untuk komoditas energi, pertambangan dan perkebunan. Laporan EPFR dari Massachusetts, Cambridge AS menunjukkan equity fund di negara emerging menambah $ 1.2 miliar di pekan 27 Mei dan Citigroup menaikkan rating overweight dari neutral: Taiwan, Indonesia, Hong Kong kendati menurunkan rating China, mendukung kuatnya inflow ke pasar saham regional Asia, menjelang testimony Fed Bernanke hari Rabu-Kamis.
Technical Analysis:
Power yang kuat di indikator ADX daily, MACD dan stochastic yang uptrend, didukung oleh pola candle bullish kicking dengan white maruzobu kemarin, seharusnya masih mendukung potensi kenaikan pada hari ini. Meski volume terlihat divergence dengan kenaikan harga, dapat picu potensi penurunan beberapa hari mendatang (alert: profit-taking). IHSG diperkirakan capai 2,050 (100.0 FE), dukung analisa Elliot wave, IHSG berada dalam proses minute wave iii dalam minor wave impulse 5 dalam siklus koreksi intermediate wave 4, 2,027 (161.8 FE)/2,100 (uptrend line - diagonal triangle) selama ditutup harian di atas 1,810 (downtrend channel). Support di 1,888 (10-day MA)/1,856 (20-day MA).
Resistance: 2093.23/2052.66/2039.14/2025.62. PP 1971.54
Support : 1958.02/1944.50/1917.45/1890.41
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 1,970-2,050)
Regional Asia Berpotensi Melanjutkan Strong Rally
HSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss
18150 18125 18438 18025 18516 18203 18615
Commentary
Secara teknikal, minimnya chart teknikal indeks di daily chart yang menunjukkan potensi breakout level 18,865 (resistance line) untuk target 19002 (61.8 FE) di hourly chart. Sementara trend bullish masih valid selama ditutup diatas 18555, bilamana break dapat menetralkan trend bullish. Runaway gap dan rising window dan pola candle bullish contunuation seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan ke target 19000/19200 (100.0 FE). Indikator ADX, stochastic dan MACD masih uptrend masih dukung trend kenaikan. Perkiraan range hari Selasa : 18.5500-19.200.
Rekomendasi : Buy break 18880 target 19200 (or closing) stop 100 p. Sell break 18550 target 18230 stop 60 poin. Sell 19200 target 18600 stop 100p. Buy 18,250 target 17960 stop 100p (+440p)
18150 18125 18438 18025 18516 18203 18615
Commentary
Secara teknikal, minimnya chart teknikal indeks di daily chart yang menunjukkan potensi breakout level 18,865 (resistance line) untuk target 19002 (61.8 FE) di hourly chart. Sementara trend bullish masih valid selama ditutup diatas 18555, bilamana break dapat menetralkan trend bullish. Runaway gap dan rising window dan pola candle bullish contunuation seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan ke target 19000/19200 (100.0 FE). Indikator ADX, stochastic dan MACD masih uptrend masih dukung trend kenaikan. Perkiraan range hari Selasa : 18.5500-19.200.
Rekomendasi : Buy break 18880 target 19200 (or closing) stop 100 p. Sell break 18550 target 18230 stop 60 poin. Sell 19200 target 18600 stop 100p. Buy 18,250 target 17960 stop 100p (+440p)
Asian Stocks May Rise 8% Before Declining: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks may gain a further 8 percent before a “correction” that will pave the way for the next leg of a rally in regional markets, Elliott Wave International Inc. said. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index has retraced about 38.2 percent of the drop from the record in November 2007 on the logarithmic scale, and may rise to 110, the 50 percent level indicated by a Fibonacci chart, Elliott Wave International said in its June Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast report. The index may then retreat before rebounding in a “multi-month rally,” it added. The MSCI regional index slipped 0.1 percent to 101.94 as of 8:08 a.m. in Singapore after jumping 12 percent last month. The measure has climbed 14 percent this year, rebounding from last year’s record 43 percent slump. “Most Asian-Pacific indexes are losing momentum but their rally patterns appear incomplete,” the Gainesville, Georgia- based market researcher said in the report that was dated May 29. “A correction lasting at least a few weeks should begin by late June.”
Elliott Wave Theory, created by U.S. market analyst Ralph Elliott in 1938, attempts to predict future price moves by dividing past trends into sections, or waves, and calculating changes in value. Elliott Wave International said in a May 1 report that Asian stocks are on the “final leg” of a rally from their March lows and face a “correction” by the middle of the month.
India Call
India is among markets that may give up some gains as momentum and volumes slow, the researcher said last month. That will be a correction amid the market’s longer bull market that can last for 15 years, the forecaster has predicted. The benchmark Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index soared 28 percent in May, its best month in 17 years, after the ruling Congress party had its biggest election victory in two decades.“We didn’t pay enough attention to our own admonition that in a bull market, surprises come to the upside,” Elliott Wave International wrote in its June report. “Longer term, the recent price action was positive for our long-term bullish forecast.”
Elliott Wave Theory, created by U.S. market analyst Ralph Elliott in 1938, attempts to predict future price moves by dividing past trends into sections, or waves, and calculating changes in value. Elliott Wave International said in a May 1 report that Asian stocks are on the “final leg” of a rally from their March lows and face a “correction” by the middle of the month.
India Call
India is among markets that may give up some gains as momentum and volumes slow, the researcher said last month. That will be a correction amid the market’s longer bull market that can last for 15 years, the forecaster has predicted. The benchmark Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index soared 28 percent in May, its best month in 17 years, after the ruling Congress party had its biggest election victory in two decades.“We didn’t pay enough attention to our own admonition that in a bull market, surprises come to the upside,” Elliott Wave International wrote in its June report. “Longer term, the recent price action was positive for our long-term bullish forecast.”
Oil May Reach $78 on 200-Day Mean, PVM Says: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil’s rally may reach $78 a barrel should prices close above their 200-day moving average, according to technical analysis by PVM Oil Associates Ltd. The July crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose to its 200-day mean on May 29, a signal that prices may keep rising, PVM said in a report today. If the contract settles above the rolling average, currently around $66.39 a barrel, crude may proceed to $78.40, the broker said.“There will doubtless by the odd nasty dip on the way higher, but there is a bullish technical backdrop to the market,” London-based PVM Director Robin Bieber said in the report. “The contracts look like they are shaping up for a move to their long-term objectives.”Oil for July settlement last traded at $67.73 a barrel as of 10:26 a.m. London time, having gained 30 percent last month on speculation the global economy is emerging from recession. A close above the 200-day average will first open the way for a move to $76.28, with the potential for a subsequent move to “just above $78,” according to PVM.
On May 7, PVM predicted that oil would rise to $62.65 a barrel in New York as the market retraced part of the 10-year rally that extended from 1998 to 2008, three weeks before crude reached that point.“It’s been a logical progression,” Bieber said in a telephone interview. “In early May it looked like we were going to $62.65, then the next target was the 200-day moving average, and this is the spring-board for the last leg up in this rally.”Contracts for heating oil and gasoline also have potential for further gains if they remain above their five-day moving averages, the report added. July gasoline, currently at 192.89 cents a gallon, can rise to 197.35 if it holds above long-term support points at 192.84 and 187.22, PVM said.
On May 7, PVM predicted that oil would rise to $62.65 a barrel in New York as the market retraced part of the 10-year rally that extended from 1998 to 2008, three weeks before crude reached that point.“It’s been a logical progression,” Bieber said in a telephone interview. “In early May it looked like we were going to $62.65, then the next target was the 200-day moving average, and this is the spring-board for the last leg up in this rally.”Contracts for heating oil and gasoline also have potential for further gains if they remain above their five-day moving averages, the report added. July gasoline, currently at 192.89 cents a gallon, can rise to 197.35 if it holds above long-term support points at 192.84 and 187.22, PVM said.
Indonesia Stocks May Rise 19%, Credit Suisse Says
(Bloomberg) -- Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite index may rise a further 19 percent this year, based on the outlook for the economy and the valuation of its stocks, Credit Suisse Group AG said. The brokerage favors companies including PT United Tractors because of “earnings quality and attractive valuations,” analyst Arief Wana said in a report today. Credit Suisse expects the benchmark measure to rise to 2,276, a 19 percent advance from the close on May 29.Higher commodity prices and lower interest rates helped cushion the impact of the global recession on Southeast Asia’s biggest economy. Private consumption makes up about two-thirds of the economy, which grew 4.4 percent in the first quarter, the fastest pace in the region.
“We believe that private consumption is not only resilient against the recent downturn, but is more importantly showing a trend of bottoming out,” Wana said. “Indonesian corporates are in good shape.”The stock index has risen 41 percent this year through May 29, the best-performer among Southeast Asian markets. PT Indo Tambangraya Megah and PT Adaro Energy are the preferred coal stocks, Wana said. Crude oil futures advanced 72 percent this year, enhancing the allure of alternative fuels. United Tractors is Indonesia’s biggest heavy equipment seller, which also offers coal mining contracting services.
Interest Rate Cuts
The Indonesian central bank cut its key interest rate six times since December, improving the outlook for loans. PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia, the second-largest by assets, is the top pick among banks, Wana said. The Jakarta Composite is now valued at 10.9 times next year’s estimate earnings, the lowest in Southeast Asia after Thailand. Credit Suisse, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and BNP Paribas SA upgraded Indonesia’s rating to “overweight” last month after elections in April strengthened President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s hold in parliament and raised expectations he will boost economic growth. Yudhoyono named Boediono, a former central bank governor, as his running mate for the July presidential elections.
The “market sees him positively,” Wana said in the report, referring to the president. “Considering that he has a dominant position in the recent parliament votes and that this is his last term, we believe that he will be more decisive.”
PT Semen Gresik and PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa, Indonesia’s two biggest cement makers, and PT Bumi Resources, Asia’s largest exporter of power-station coal, may benefit from the election theme, he said.
“We believe that private consumption is not only resilient against the recent downturn, but is more importantly showing a trend of bottoming out,” Wana said. “Indonesian corporates are in good shape.”The stock index has risen 41 percent this year through May 29, the best-performer among Southeast Asian markets. PT Indo Tambangraya Megah and PT Adaro Energy are the preferred coal stocks, Wana said. Crude oil futures advanced 72 percent this year, enhancing the allure of alternative fuels. United Tractors is Indonesia’s biggest heavy equipment seller, which also offers coal mining contracting services.
Interest Rate Cuts
The Indonesian central bank cut its key interest rate six times since December, improving the outlook for loans. PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia, the second-largest by assets, is the top pick among banks, Wana said. The Jakarta Composite is now valued at 10.9 times next year’s estimate earnings, the lowest in Southeast Asia after Thailand. Credit Suisse, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and BNP Paribas SA upgraded Indonesia’s rating to “overweight” last month after elections in April strengthened President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s hold in parliament and raised expectations he will boost economic growth. Yudhoyono named Boediono, a former central bank governor, as his running mate for the July presidential elections.
The “market sees him positively,” Wana said in the report, referring to the president. “Considering that he has a dominant position in the recent parliament votes and that this is his last term, we believe that he will be more decisive.”
PT Semen Gresik and PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa, Indonesia’s two biggest cement makers, and PT Bumi Resources, Asia’s largest exporter of power-station coal, may benefit from the election theme, he said.
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