(Bloomberg) -- The International Monetary Fund will probably sell 200 metric tons of gold annually starting next year, “potentially weighing on prices,” Citigroup Inc. said in a report e-mailed today. Gold will fall to $850 an ounce in the second half of 2010, Citigroup Sydney-based analyst Alan Heap wrote in the report. The IMF board will approve a gold sale before its annual meeting in October, Reza Moghadam, director of strategy, policy and review, said on July 29. A planned sale of 13 million ounces (403 tons) was accepted by the U.S. last month.
“We believe the sell down will likely begin in 2010 and see around 200 tons sold per year, potentially weighing on prices,” Heap wrote in the report. Gold for immediate delivery rose 91 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $935.32 an ounce by 1:27 p.m. in London. The price may rise to $1,000 in the first six months of 2010, according to Heap.
The IMF owns 3,217 tons of gold, the third-largest holder of gold after the U.S. and Germany, according to data compiled by London-based research company GFMS Ltd. A sale of 200 tons would compare with 246 tons disposed last year by central banks, according to GFMS. European central banks have an agreement to limit their gold sales to 500 tons a year, and that arrangement expires in September. A new accord has not been announced.
“The central bank agreement is expected to be renewed after it expires in September, although, in our view, it could now perhaps afford to be more relaxed in terms of annual limits and allocating quotas,” Barclays Capital analyst Suki Cooper wrote in a report today.
Saturday, August 1, 2009
China to Cut Loans as Stocks ‘Bubble’ Grows, Xie Says
(Bloomberg) -- China may cut growth in new loans by half in the last six months of this year to deflate a bubble in the world’s second-best performing stock market, according to former Morgan Stanley chief Asian economist Andy Xie.
The Shanghai Composite Index has surged 87 percent in 2009 as 7.37 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion) of bank loans and government spending spur an economic recovery. The index plunged the most in eight months on July 29 on speculation the government will curb inflows into a market trading at its most expensive since January 2008. “The government is worried that this bubble is becoming too big so they’re going to cut credit growth by probably half in the second half,” said independent economist Xie, who correctly predicted in April 2007 that China’s equities would tumble. “I think the property and stock markets will come under pressure probably around October time,” he said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Hong Kong today.
China’s central bank said July 29 it will use market tools to control lending growth and affirmed a “moderately loose” monetary policy to support the nation’s economic recovery. New loans in July may be less than 500 billion yuan, the Shanghai Securities News reported, without saying where it got its information. That compares with new loans of 1.53 trillion yuan in June. A People’s Bank of China official said the regulator doesn’t comment on information it didn’t distribute. Fu Weiyi, a Beijing-based press officer at the China Banking Regulatory Commission, couldn’t be reached for comment at his office.
Equity Inflows
It’s “undeniable” that a portion of this year’s new lending entered the nation’s stock and property markets, Cheng Siwei, former vice chairman of the standing committee of the National People’s Congress, China’s parliament, said in June. An estimated 1.16 trillion yuan of loans were invested in the stock market in the first five months of this year, China Business News reported on June 29, citing Wei Jianing, a deputy director at the Development and Research Center under the State Council, China’s cabinet.
The Shanghai Composite added 2.7 percent to 3,412.06 at the close, capping a 15 percent monthly gain, its biggest since August 2007. This year’s rally follows a 65 percent plunge in 2008. The index, which doubled in 2006 and 2007, remains about 2,700 points below its October 2007 high.
“The Chinese stock market is always like that,” Xie said. “It goes up a lot and then it goes down a lot. It never is in a steady stage. I’m afraid this time it’s very similar.”
Lending Caps
China Construction Bank Corp. and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the nation’s two largest banks by assets, will cap second-half new lending at about 200 billion yuan each, Beijing’s Caijing magazine said in separate reports in the past two weeks, citing officials it didn’t name. Construction Bank lent 709 billion yuan in the first half, while ICBC advanced 864.6 billion yuan, the magazine reported.
“It’s very difficult for the Chinese government to manage” the risks of a bubble, said Lau Chi Yiu, Hong Kong-based executive director at United Gain Investment Ltd., which runs a $100 million fund investing in China, Taiwan and Hong Kong. “If they are too aggressive, the market may not recover.
Speculation the government would rein in lending sparked a 5 percent decline on the Shanghai Composite on July 29, helping value of shares traded in China to surpass the combined amount in the U.S., U.K. and Japan for the first time on record.
‘Speculative Mania’
Transactions on the Chinese stock exchanges surged to $63 billion on July 29, more than the $58 billion that changed hands on markets in New York, London and Tokyo that day, according to Bloomberg data going back to January 2008. “There’s absolutely clear evidence of a speculative mania having returned to the stock market,” said Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo & Co.’s Edward Chancellor, a Boston-based member of the asset allocation team at GMO, which oversees more than $90 billion.
Individual investors opened more than a million stock accounts in the two weeks to July 24, data from the nation’s clearing house showed, the fastest pace in 18 months. “The last leg of the market upturn is a lot of new investors jumping in,” Xie said. “We’re seeing that now. As soon as this wave of new investors is exhausted, then the market will start to go down.”
The slump on July 29 hasn’t scared retired elementary- school teacher Wu Ruiling away from stocks. Sitting at an outlet of Shenyin & Wanguo Securities Co. in Shanghai’s Luijiazui financial district yesterday, the 70-year-old said the rout cost her a paper loss of 30,000 yuan, paring the value of her investments to about 700,000 yuan.
“I’m not afraid of the plunge and I wouldn’t sell my stock because the upward trend is still there,” said Wu, who owns shares in 18 companies including Wuhan Iron & Steel Co. and Huaxia Bank Co. “Stock programs on the TV and radio all said it’s a good opportunity to buy.”
The Shanghai Composite Index has surged 87 percent in 2009 as 7.37 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion) of bank loans and government spending spur an economic recovery. The index plunged the most in eight months on July 29 on speculation the government will curb inflows into a market trading at its most expensive since January 2008. “The government is worried that this bubble is becoming too big so they’re going to cut credit growth by probably half in the second half,” said independent economist Xie, who correctly predicted in April 2007 that China’s equities would tumble. “I think the property and stock markets will come under pressure probably around October time,” he said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Hong Kong today.
China’s central bank said July 29 it will use market tools to control lending growth and affirmed a “moderately loose” monetary policy to support the nation’s economic recovery. New loans in July may be less than 500 billion yuan, the Shanghai Securities News reported, without saying where it got its information. That compares with new loans of 1.53 trillion yuan in June. A People’s Bank of China official said the regulator doesn’t comment on information it didn’t distribute. Fu Weiyi, a Beijing-based press officer at the China Banking Regulatory Commission, couldn’t be reached for comment at his office.
Equity Inflows
It’s “undeniable” that a portion of this year’s new lending entered the nation’s stock and property markets, Cheng Siwei, former vice chairman of the standing committee of the National People’s Congress, China’s parliament, said in June. An estimated 1.16 trillion yuan of loans were invested in the stock market in the first five months of this year, China Business News reported on June 29, citing Wei Jianing, a deputy director at the Development and Research Center under the State Council, China’s cabinet.
The Shanghai Composite added 2.7 percent to 3,412.06 at the close, capping a 15 percent monthly gain, its biggest since August 2007. This year’s rally follows a 65 percent plunge in 2008. The index, which doubled in 2006 and 2007, remains about 2,700 points below its October 2007 high.
“The Chinese stock market is always like that,” Xie said. “It goes up a lot and then it goes down a lot. It never is in a steady stage. I’m afraid this time it’s very similar.”
Lending Caps
China Construction Bank Corp. and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the nation’s two largest banks by assets, will cap second-half new lending at about 200 billion yuan each, Beijing’s Caijing magazine said in separate reports in the past two weeks, citing officials it didn’t name. Construction Bank lent 709 billion yuan in the first half, while ICBC advanced 864.6 billion yuan, the magazine reported.
“It’s very difficult for the Chinese government to manage” the risks of a bubble, said Lau Chi Yiu, Hong Kong-based executive director at United Gain Investment Ltd., which runs a $100 million fund investing in China, Taiwan and Hong Kong. “If they are too aggressive, the market may not recover.
Speculation the government would rein in lending sparked a 5 percent decline on the Shanghai Composite on July 29, helping value of shares traded in China to surpass the combined amount in the U.S., U.K. and Japan for the first time on record.
‘Speculative Mania’
Transactions on the Chinese stock exchanges surged to $63 billion on July 29, more than the $58 billion that changed hands on markets in New York, London and Tokyo that day, according to Bloomberg data going back to January 2008. “There’s absolutely clear evidence of a speculative mania having returned to the stock market,” said Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo & Co.’s Edward Chancellor, a Boston-based member of the asset allocation team at GMO, which oversees more than $90 billion.
Individual investors opened more than a million stock accounts in the two weeks to July 24, data from the nation’s clearing house showed, the fastest pace in 18 months. “The last leg of the market upturn is a lot of new investors jumping in,” Xie said. “We’re seeing that now. As soon as this wave of new investors is exhausted, then the market will start to go down.”
The slump on July 29 hasn’t scared retired elementary- school teacher Wu Ruiling away from stocks. Sitting at an outlet of Shenyin & Wanguo Securities Co. in Shanghai’s Luijiazui financial district yesterday, the 70-year-old said the rout cost her a paper loss of 30,000 yuan, paring the value of her investments to about 700,000 yuan.
“I’m not afraid of the plunge and I wouldn’t sell my stock because the upward trend is still there,” said Wu, who owns shares in 18 companies including Wuhan Iron & Steel Co. and Huaxia Bank Co. “Stock programs on the TV and radio all said it’s a good opportunity to buy.”
S&P 500 May Gain 20%, Wien Says, Recommending Technology, Materials Shares
(Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will extend its rally from a 12-year low on March 9 by 10 percent to 20 percent this year and technology, raw-materials and energy companies are the most attractive, Byron Wien said.
“Right now I think we’re in a favorable period,” Wien, a former senior market strategist at Morgan Stanley, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview. “I think the market’s going to go higher.”
The U.S. government and Federal Reserve have pledged $12.8 trillion to revive growth amid the deepest recession in a half century. The economic downturn may persist into 2010 because current stimulus programs will fail to revive growth, Wien said. “My worry is that sometime next year, when the stimulus is dissipated, that there isn’t anything to take its place, that there isn’t a natural economic driving force that’s going to propel the economy forward without the stimulus,” he said.
Wien, 76, joined Pequot Capital Management Inc. as chief market strategist in December 2005 after leaving Morgan Stanley. Pequot said in May it would shut down because of a federal insider-trading investigation.
“Right now I think we’re in a favorable period,” Wien, a former senior market strategist at Morgan Stanley, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview. “I think the market’s going to go higher.”
The U.S. government and Federal Reserve have pledged $12.8 trillion to revive growth amid the deepest recession in a half century. The economic downturn may persist into 2010 because current stimulus programs will fail to revive growth, Wien said. “My worry is that sometime next year, when the stimulus is dissipated, that there isn’t anything to take its place, that there isn’t a natural economic driving force that’s going to propel the economy forward without the stimulus,” he said.
Wien, 76, joined Pequot Capital Management Inc. as chief market strategist in December 2005 after leaving Morgan Stanley. Pequot said in May it would shut down because of a federal insider-trading investigation.
Friday, July 31, 2009
Track Record Saham & Komoditi Pekan Ini (27 - 31 Juli 2007)
Track Record Saham Pekan Ini (27-31 Juli) = +157.88% (18 saham) = Average +8.98%. Total Track Record 17 Juni - 31 Juli = 46.49% (6 pekan profit berturut-turut) = 37.51% (5 wks) + 8.98%, Outperform IHSG 15.62% (17 Juni-31 Juli). BUMI 31.3% + 21.5%,ELTY 11.38%,KLBF 11.8%,UNSP 11.1%,BMRI 13%,BBCA 3.4%,BBNI 6.1%,ASRI 2.7%,CTRA 5%,KIJA 6.4%,ISAT 3.8%,ELSA 6%,MEDC 3.8%,INCO 1.2%,UNTR 10.2%,INKP 1.1%,ANTM 4.7%,HEXA 7.2%. Close Long EUR-USD 1.4070: +80 pips, Long GBP-USD : +170 pips, Long Gold $ 930: +$800 poin, long Oil $ 63: $ 450 poin. Good Luck All. Cu Next Week. Perhatian analisa di Facebook bisa berbeda dengan analisa di UBI Newsletter. Dengarkan analisa valas dan saham di Pas FM 92.4 Senin 03/08 Jam 08.15 & Metrotv Market Watch Jam 09.30.
Equity-driven Commodities Correction
By: Donald_W_Dony
Commodities
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKEY POINTS
• Resistance in stocks drives commodity correction
• Risk aversion in equities underpins US$
• Gold low expect in September/October
• Range-bound oil prices under resistance
• Copper prices stall at $2.50
• Natural gas looks to seasonal strength in September
In the July issue, I mentioned that commodities, stocks and the U.S. dollar are all moving to the beat of risk aversion.
If the S&P 500 pulls back in July, money will likely flow out of equities and into the ‘safe haven’ of the big dollar. This in turn, props up the fundamentally weak currency and should send raw materials downward. This intermarket dance is normally in reverse. Usually, the US$ sets the mood first, followed by the action of commodities, and then, finally, stocks. However, because of the severe bear market conditions, the opposite is happening. Basically, the caboose is driving the engine.
Risk aversion is key
In Chart 1, the comparison between the three markets is fairly clear. Throughout the bear market bounce (March to June), capital shifted out of the dollar and into stocks. This had a negative affect on the greenback. But what is bad for the dollar is usually good for commodities; the Commodities Research Bureau (CRB) Index soared.
The picture began to change in June. Weakness in the S&P 500 spelled risk aversion loud and clear for traders. Capital shifted back to U.S. treasury bills, and materials were under pressure.
What about the expected movements of commodities in the coming months, especially with an expected major low for stocks in October?
Market psychology will likely play a bigger role until October than will the fundamentals.
For example, should the S&P 500 start to slide downward in August and September, traders are expected to follow a similar path to what they have for many months – protecting their assets and running for safety (safety equals U.S. dollar strength). This action is, of course, negative for commodities.If the movement to October is gentle for the S&P 500, capital is less likely to shift out of equities and transfer to the US$. This outlook is more favourable for the CRB.
By Donald W. Dony, FCSI, MFTA
Commodities
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKEY POINTS
• Resistance in stocks drives commodity correction
• Risk aversion in equities underpins US$
• Gold low expect in September/October
• Range-bound oil prices under resistance
• Copper prices stall at $2.50
• Natural gas looks to seasonal strength in September
In the July issue, I mentioned that commodities, stocks and the U.S. dollar are all moving to the beat of risk aversion.
If the S&P 500 pulls back in July, money will likely flow out of equities and into the ‘safe haven’ of the big dollar. This in turn, props up the fundamentally weak currency and should send raw materials downward. This intermarket dance is normally in reverse. Usually, the US$ sets the mood first, followed by the action of commodities, and then, finally, stocks. However, because of the severe bear market conditions, the opposite is happening. Basically, the caboose is driving the engine.
Risk aversion is key
In Chart 1, the comparison between the three markets is fairly clear. Throughout the bear market bounce (March to June), capital shifted out of the dollar and into stocks. This had a negative affect on the greenback. But what is bad for the dollar is usually good for commodities; the Commodities Research Bureau (CRB) Index soared.
The picture began to change in June. Weakness in the S&P 500 spelled risk aversion loud and clear for traders. Capital shifted back to U.S. treasury bills, and materials were under pressure.
What about the expected movements of commodities in the coming months, especially with an expected major low for stocks in October?
Market psychology will likely play a bigger role until October than will the fundamentals.
For example, should the S&P 500 start to slide downward in August and September, traders are expected to follow a similar path to what they have for many months – protecting their assets and running for safety (safety equals U.S. dollar strength). This action is, of course, negative for commodities.If the movement to October is gentle for the S&P 500, capital is less likely to shift out of equities and transfer to the US$. This outlook is more favourable for the CRB.
By Donald W. Dony, FCSI, MFTA
What A Housing Rebound Could Mean For Dollar ETFs
By Tom Lydon on July 31, 2009 | More Posts By Tom Lydon | Author's Website
As the housing sector appears to be rebounding and encouraging news continues to emerge from the industry, some wonder if the rebound is necessarily a great thing for dollar-related exchange traded funds (ETFs).There are three reasons why the dollar may weaken as positive economic indicators, such as a rebound in real estate, continue to come in, states Chris Gaffney of FX University Daily.
* First, UBS, the world’s second-largest currency trader, predicts that the dollar will weaken as the global economy starts to rebound and investors around the globe begin to take on more risk.
* Second, the United States is gearing up to try to sell $325 billion in Treasuries, and the vast majority of the bonds will be short-term.
* Last, Chinese consumers are driving the growth of their own nation and China is becoming less dependent on the U.S. consumer for growth. Once the economy starts rebounding, demand for products from the West will also increase. Low inventories could drive prices up.
Regardless of which way the U.S. dollar goes, the following ETFs will be influenced:
* PowerShares DB USD Index Bullish (UUP: 23.63 -0.03 -0.13%): down 4.2% year-to-date
* PowerShares DB USD Index Bearish (UDN: 27.08 +0.08 +0.30%): up 3.1% year-to-date
As the housing sector appears to be rebounding and encouraging news continues to emerge from the industry, some wonder if the rebound is necessarily a great thing for dollar-related exchange traded funds (ETFs).There are three reasons why the dollar may weaken as positive economic indicators, such as a rebound in real estate, continue to come in, states Chris Gaffney of FX University Daily.
* First, UBS, the world’s second-largest currency trader, predicts that the dollar will weaken as the global economy starts to rebound and investors around the globe begin to take on more risk.
* Second, the United States is gearing up to try to sell $325 billion in Treasuries, and the vast majority of the bonds will be short-term.
* Last, Chinese consumers are driving the growth of their own nation and China is becoming less dependent on the U.S. consumer for growth. Once the economy starts rebounding, demand for products from the West will also increase. Low inventories could drive prices up.
Regardless of which way the U.S. dollar goes, the following ETFs will be influenced:
* PowerShares DB USD Index Bullish (UUP: 23.63 -0.03 -0.13%): down 4.2% year-to-date
* PowerShares DB USD Index Bearish (UDN: 27.08 +0.08 +0.30%): up 3.1% year-to-date
S&P 500 Rally: Waiting For A Line In The Sand
By Bill Luby on July 30, 2009
The rocket-fueled rally continues this morning, with today’s rally marked by very strong breadth and advancing volume ahead of declining volume by more than 10-1 as I write this.Sooner or later, the bulls will run out of steam, the bears will get tired of retreating and we will have some semblance of a top. With S&P 500 (^GSPC: 986.75 0.00 0.00%) 1000 just around the corner, tomorrow the last trading day of the month and a number of overbought signals being pushed to extremes, today or tomorrow looks like a good place for any bears left alive to make their stand.
The chart below shows that since the March lows, five of the major indices have rallied from 43% (Dow Jones Industrial Average) to 64% (Russell 2000 small cap index).In addition to being a nice round number and source of psychological support and resistance, SPX 1000 also marks exactly a 50% rally from the March bottom. If the bears cannot keep the SPX under 1010, then there is very little in the way of resistance on the way up to 1050.I expect a line in the sand soon - and I expect it will have some staying power.
The rocket-fueled rally continues this morning, with today’s rally marked by very strong breadth and advancing volume ahead of declining volume by more than 10-1 as I write this.Sooner or later, the bulls will run out of steam, the bears will get tired of retreating and we will have some semblance of a top. With S&P 500 (^GSPC: 986.75 0.00 0.00%) 1000 just around the corner, tomorrow the last trading day of the month and a number of overbought signals being pushed to extremes, today or tomorrow looks like a good place for any bears left alive to make their stand.
The chart below shows that since the March lows, five of the major indices have rallied from 43% (Dow Jones Industrial Average) to 64% (Russell 2000 small cap index).In addition to being a nice round number and source of psychological support and resistance, SPX 1000 also marks exactly a 50% rally from the March bottom. If the bears cannot keep the SPX under 1010, then there is very little in the way of resistance on the way up to 1050.I expect a line in the sand soon - and I expect it will have some staying power.
Positifnya Earning H1 Global & Faktor Teknikal Masih Topang Kinerja IHSG
Market Review
Melonjaknya sejumlah saham dari grup Bakrie yang menyumbang 44.5% nilai transaksi total di Bursa Efek Indonesia kemarin, diikuti kenaikan di seluruh sektor terutama komoditi, perbankan dan infrastruktur. Positifnya sejumlah laporan keuangan semester 1 2009 (ASII, GGRM, ELSA, CIMB-Niaga, UNVR, UNTR, INTP, JSMR) mendorong indeks ke level tertinggi sejak 1 Agustus 2008 dengan nilai transaksi Rp 7.013 triliun. Imbas dari mayoritas indeks saham regional Asia ikut memberikan sentimen positif kepada IHSG. Stabilnya rupiah di kisaran Rp 9,900 per dolar masih memberikan keuntungan dari perkiraan kuatnya inflow ke pasar saham domestik. IHSG melejit 72.323 poin (3.249%) ditutup di 2,298.135. Kemarin Investor asing mencatat net buying sebesar Rp 1.1 triliun, dibandingkan net sell Rp 937.838 miliar (29/07).
Indeks saham MSCI Asia Pasific rebound dari penurunan di awal sesi perdagangan, karena lebih baiknya earning dari Honda Motor dan Nissan Motor, meningkatkan keyakinan investor untuk pemulihan ekonomi global. Saham Australia menguat setelah Citigroup upgrade Commonwealth Bank of Australia, diikuti pernyataan People Bank of China akan mempertahankan “kelonggaran kebijakan moneter yang moderat” untuk mengontrol pinjaman, ikut angkat indeks regional Asia.
IHSG Outlook
Ind P/E (x)
EPS
Y/Y Y/Y Suku Bunga* Inflasi*
Y/Y GDP*
Y/Y
IHSG 14.6 8% +0.8% 6.75% 3.65% 4.4%
STI 20.5 16% -14.7% 0.69% -0.70% -10.1%
KLCI 16.1 10% +1.3% 2.0% 3.00% -6.2%
SET 17.4 4% -11.7% 1.25% -3.30% -7.10%
SSE 44.8 36% +16% 5.31% -1.40% 7.9%
N225 45.3 -1% -26.9% 0.10% -0.10% -9.7%
HSI 26.2 19% -12.5% 0.50% 0.60% -7.80%
DJIA 16.5 3% -18.8% 0.25% -1.4% -2.5%
* Negara Bersangkutan
Positifnya hasil laporan pendapatan korporasi Indonesia semester 1 2009 telah kami perkiraan sebelumnya, meningkatkan daya tarik untuk pasar saham domestik, selain berita positif lainnya seperti laporan reksadana lokal menembus dana keloaaan sebesar Rp 100 triliun, poling fund Asia bulanan Dow Jones Newswire bahwa Indonesia termasuk diantara top pick fund manager (selain China, India, Hong Kong) karena meningkatnya optimisme terhadap pandangan ekonomi, pernyataan International Monetary Fund (IMF) bahwa pandangan ekonomi 2009 masih positif, investor asing sejak awal pekan ini masih mencatat net buy Rp 452 miliar, serta masih stabilnya mata uang rupiah terhadap dolar (penutupan Rp 9,950), suksesnya penjualan ORI 006 baru-baru ini (Rp 1.45 triliun dalam 3 hari), pembayaran samurai bond RI senilai 35 miliar yen (29/7) menjelang data inflasi bulan Juli (dirilis 03/08; perkiraan +0.2%-0.5% m/m) dan GDP Q2 RI (perkiraan 3.7%) yang dapat tercatat diatas perkiraan pasar, dapat mendorong perkiraan kuatnya aliran dana masuk ke pasar modal, memberikan momentum kenakan kepada IHSG di akhir pekan hingga awal pekan depan. Sementara mahalnya valuasi saham domestik (PER 14.6x) dan kondisi pasar yang overbought dapat memberikan signal “alert” terhadap potensi “market pull back” dan membatasi potensi kenaikan IHSG.
Stock Picks: Average last 5 week +37.51%. Target 10-20%, Risk < -10%. Close today
Hold Buy: BUMI, ANTM ,INCO, TINS, WIKA, BMRI, BBKP, PGAS, MEDC, META, INKP, KIJA. BUY ELTY, BNBR, ENRG, JSMR, GGRM.
Stock Picks:
AKRA buy target Rp 980
ELSA buy target Rp 420
Global Outlook
Positifnya rilisan earning global kemarin dan kenaikan harga komoditi minyak (target $ 70/73) meningkatkan daya tarik untuk saham dan komoditi global hari ini. Sejumlah earning seperti Exxon mobil, Motorola, Kellog, Dow Chemical. Visa, BT Group, Honda Motor, Nissan, Alcatel tercatat diatas perkiraan analis, sementara saham General Electric upgraded oleh Goldman Sachs. Prediksi Goldman Sachs, koreksi harga minyak saat ini bersifat sementara dan berpotensi mengarah ke target US$ 85/barel, meski inventory minyak mentah AS pekan lalu meningkat 5.5 juta barel, memberikan sentiment positif kepada harga minyak dan komoditi lainnya. Sementara positifnya data pengangguran Jerman bulan Juli, indeks sentimen ekonomi Euro (76.0), Jobless Claims AS (kendati meningkat 25,000 menjadi 584,000; 4-week moving average anjlok 8,250 menjadi 559,000), suksesnya lelang Treasury AS 7-tahun sebesar $28 miliar dan faktor teknikal uptrend (target DJIA 9500), seharusnya masih memberikan momentum positif untuk indeks saham global hari ini. Meski mahalnya valuasi saham Asia dan AS, diikuti kenaikan suku bunga mortgage AS untuk pekan kedua, dapat membatasi potensi kenaikan indeks saham global lebih lanjut.
Technical Analysis:
Pola uptrend channel dalam formasi ascending triangle masih terjaga, diikuti candle white opening marobuzu yang merupakan indikasi bullish continuation, seharusnya dapat mengarahkan indeks ke target 2,323 (projection 161.8%)/2,350 (trendline resistance)/2,400 (upper channel), selama tidak ditutup harian dibawah 2,213. Indikator ADX trending up, stochastic overbought, MACD bullish, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan kenaikan lebih lanjut. Hitungan Elliot Wave menunjukkan proses wave minor iii (perkiraan peak diupgrade ke 2,350/2,400) formasi i-v dalam impulse wave 5 - siklus subwave intermediate 4 / B.
Resistance: 2432.672392.50/2352.33/2325.55. PP 2271.99
Support : 2258.60/2245.21/2218.43/2191.65
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2200 - 2,256)
www.universalbroker.co.I'd (code TF) halaman 1 UBI newsletter edisi 256
www.strategydesk.co.id
Melonjaknya sejumlah saham dari grup Bakrie yang menyumbang 44.5% nilai transaksi total di Bursa Efek Indonesia kemarin, diikuti kenaikan di seluruh sektor terutama komoditi, perbankan dan infrastruktur. Positifnya sejumlah laporan keuangan semester 1 2009 (ASII, GGRM, ELSA, CIMB-Niaga, UNVR, UNTR, INTP, JSMR) mendorong indeks ke level tertinggi sejak 1 Agustus 2008 dengan nilai transaksi Rp 7.013 triliun. Imbas dari mayoritas indeks saham regional Asia ikut memberikan sentimen positif kepada IHSG. Stabilnya rupiah di kisaran Rp 9,900 per dolar masih memberikan keuntungan dari perkiraan kuatnya inflow ke pasar saham domestik. IHSG melejit 72.323 poin (3.249%) ditutup di 2,298.135. Kemarin Investor asing mencatat net buying sebesar Rp 1.1 triliun, dibandingkan net sell Rp 937.838 miliar (29/07).
Indeks saham MSCI Asia Pasific rebound dari penurunan di awal sesi perdagangan, karena lebih baiknya earning dari Honda Motor dan Nissan Motor, meningkatkan keyakinan investor untuk pemulihan ekonomi global. Saham Australia menguat setelah Citigroup upgrade Commonwealth Bank of Australia, diikuti pernyataan People Bank of China akan mempertahankan “kelonggaran kebijakan moneter yang moderat” untuk mengontrol pinjaman, ikut angkat indeks regional Asia.
IHSG Outlook
Ind P/E (x)
EPS
Y/Y Y/Y Suku Bunga* Inflasi*
Y/Y GDP*
Y/Y
IHSG 14.6 8% +0.8% 6.75% 3.65% 4.4%
STI 20.5 16% -14.7% 0.69% -0.70% -10.1%
KLCI 16.1 10% +1.3% 2.0% 3.00% -6.2%
SET 17.4 4% -11.7% 1.25% -3.30% -7.10%
SSE 44.8 36% +16% 5.31% -1.40% 7.9%
N225 45.3 -1% -26.9% 0.10% -0.10% -9.7%
HSI 26.2 19% -12.5% 0.50% 0.60% -7.80%
DJIA 16.5 3% -18.8% 0.25% -1.4% -2.5%
* Negara Bersangkutan
Positifnya hasil laporan pendapatan korporasi Indonesia semester 1 2009 telah kami perkiraan sebelumnya, meningkatkan daya tarik untuk pasar saham domestik, selain berita positif lainnya seperti laporan reksadana lokal menembus dana keloaaan sebesar Rp 100 triliun, poling fund Asia bulanan Dow Jones Newswire bahwa Indonesia termasuk diantara top pick fund manager (selain China, India, Hong Kong) karena meningkatnya optimisme terhadap pandangan ekonomi, pernyataan International Monetary Fund (IMF) bahwa pandangan ekonomi 2009 masih positif, investor asing sejak awal pekan ini masih mencatat net buy Rp 452 miliar, serta masih stabilnya mata uang rupiah terhadap dolar (penutupan Rp 9,950), suksesnya penjualan ORI 006 baru-baru ini (Rp 1.45 triliun dalam 3 hari), pembayaran samurai bond RI senilai 35 miliar yen (29/7) menjelang data inflasi bulan Juli (dirilis 03/08; perkiraan +0.2%-0.5% m/m) dan GDP Q2 RI (perkiraan 3.7%) yang dapat tercatat diatas perkiraan pasar, dapat mendorong perkiraan kuatnya aliran dana masuk ke pasar modal, memberikan momentum kenakan kepada IHSG di akhir pekan hingga awal pekan depan. Sementara mahalnya valuasi saham domestik (PER 14.6x) dan kondisi pasar yang overbought dapat memberikan signal “alert” terhadap potensi “market pull back” dan membatasi potensi kenaikan IHSG.
Stock Picks: Average last 5 week +37.51%. Target 10-20%, Risk < -10%. Close today
Hold Buy: BUMI, ANTM ,INCO, TINS, WIKA, BMRI, BBKP, PGAS, MEDC, META, INKP, KIJA. BUY ELTY, BNBR, ENRG, JSMR, GGRM.
Stock Picks:
AKRA buy target Rp 980
ELSA buy target Rp 420
Global Outlook
Positifnya rilisan earning global kemarin dan kenaikan harga komoditi minyak (target $ 70/73) meningkatkan daya tarik untuk saham dan komoditi global hari ini. Sejumlah earning seperti Exxon mobil, Motorola, Kellog, Dow Chemical. Visa, BT Group, Honda Motor, Nissan, Alcatel tercatat diatas perkiraan analis, sementara saham General Electric upgraded oleh Goldman Sachs. Prediksi Goldman Sachs, koreksi harga minyak saat ini bersifat sementara dan berpotensi mengarah ke target US$ 85/barel, meski inventory minyak mentah AS pekan lalu meningkat 5.5 juta barel, memberikan sentiment positif kepada harga minyak dan komoditi lainnya. Sementara positifnya data pengangguran Jerman bulan Juli, indeks sentimen ekonomi Euro (76.0), Jobless Claims AS (kendati meningkat 25,000 menjadi 584,000; 4-week moving average anjlok 8,250 menjadi 559,000), suksesnya lelang Treasury AS 7-tahun sebesar $28 miliar dan faktor teknikal uptrend (target DJIA 9500), seharusnya masih memberikan momentum positif untuk indeks saham global hari ini. Meski mahalnya valuasi saham Asia dan AS, diikuti kenaikan suku bunga mortgage AS untuk pekan kedua, dapat membatasi potensi kenaikan indeks saham global lebih lanjut.
Technical Analysis:
Pola uptrend channel dalam formasi ascending triangle masih terjaga, diikuti candle white opening marobuzu yang merupakan indikasi bullish continuation, seharusnya dapat mengarahkan indeks ke target 2,323 (projection 161.8%)/2,350 (trendline resistance)/2,400 (upper channel), selama tidak ditutup harian dibawah 2,213. Indikator ADX trending up, stochastic overbought, MACD bullish, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan kenaikan lebih lanjut. Hitungan Elliot Wave menunjukkan proses wave minor iii (perkiraan peak diupgrade ke 2,350/2,400) formasi i-v dalam impulse wave 5 - siklus subwave intermediate 4 / B.
Resistance: 2432.672392.50/2352.33/2325.55. PP 2271.99
Support : 2258.60/2245.21/2218.43/2191.65
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2200 - 2,256)
www.universalbroker.co.I'd (code TF) halaman 1 UBI newsletter edisi 256
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Thursday, July 30, 2009
Trend Following Success- Intelligence or Discipline
By: Andrew_Abraham
InvestorEducation
seem to have this discussion quit often. In order to achieve success in the commodity markets or forex markets does one need to have a higher level of intelligence than most. Past experience has proven this not to be the case. Example after example both public as well as in our brokerage have proven this to me.
The best example of how great intelligence did not assist in results is Long Term Capital. Their offices were full of PHDs. This did not seem to help them. They forgot the holy grail of trading, RISK MANAGEMENT. They blew up not once… but I think they blew up a second time. In our brokerage I have seen some very smart people and 1 PHD who had the most complicated (and interesting) ideas but they did not make any money. My goal is to compound money…and I learned what works and what does not.
Trend following a large basket over time offers the best potential. It is not rocket science…The real deal is Discipline and Patience. Our model in which we have traded real time for more than 2 years does not need our intellectual capabilities. The reason our model works is very simple, our risk and money management.We know that no one ..not CNBC or Bloomberg can know in advance what will happen in any market. Even more interesting is that …even if they did…the markets can react in a way no one even expects. None of the daily noise in the markets or news effects our model. More so…our egos… pride… opinions do not come into play.The irony is people expect successful traders to know the future. Due to this, it is hard for them to like trend following. I have heard a myriad of reasons such as it takes too much time, you are not having a good period or the best one.. it is boring. Understanding these statements is what makes a difference between a successful investor and not a successful investor. Another example is, after earning double digits last year for us and our clients…had a client say… you really have not done really well this year… nothing has happened.
Taking this into context… he was asked.. how did your mutual funds do over the last 10 years…duh… How about nothing..how about down..This is an example of patience and discipline in trend following in the commodity markets and forex markets. More so… we did not graduate ***** Laude from Harvard nor any of us work for Goldman Sachs. We are not on Wall Street.Some investors don’t like these facts. Again it is funny when one of the most successful trend followers last year was a taxi driver… now managing $4 billion dollars, or there is the ex policeman from Vienna Christian Baha, let alone the offsprings of the turtle traders.The key to successful investing in the commodity markets and forex markets are plain and simple. Simple ideas that have stood the test of time… with a strong measure of risk and money management… Discipline and Patience. The rest is empty ego…and not the way to compound your way to wealth.
Andrew Abraham
www.myinvestorsplace.com
InvestorEducation
seem to have this discussion quit often. In order to achieve success in the commodity markets or forex markets does one need to have a higher level of intelligence than most. Past experience has proven this not to be the case. Example after example both public as well as in our brokerage have proven this to me.
The best example of how great intelligence did not assist in results is Long Term Capital. Their offices were full of PHDs. This did not seem to help them. They forgot the holy grail of trading, RISK MANAGEMENT. They blew up not once… but I think they blew up a second time. In our brokerage I have seen some very smart people and 1 PHD who had the most complicated (and interesting) ideas but they did not make any money. My goal is to compound money…and I learned what works and what does not.
Trend following a large basket over time offers the best potential. It is not rocket science…The real deal is Discipline and Patience. Our model in which we have traded real time for more than 2 years does not need our intellectual capabilities. The reason our model works is very simple, our risk and money management.We know that no one ..not CNBC or Bloomberg can know in advance what will happen in any market. Even more interesting is that …even if they did…the markets can react in a way no one even expects. None of the daily noise in the markets or news effects our model. More so…our egos… pride… opinions do not come into play.The irony is people expect successful traders to know the future. Due to this, it is hard for them to like trend following. I have heard a myriad of reasons such as it takes too much time, you are not having a good period or the best one.. it is boring. Understanding these statements is what makes a difference between a successful investor and not a successful investor. Another example is, after earning double digits last year for us and our clients…had a client say… you really have not done really well this year… nothing has happened.
Taking this into context… he was asked.. how did your mutual funds do over the last 10 years…duh… How about nothing..how about down..This is an example of patience and discipline in trend following in the commodity markets and forex markets. More so… we did not graduate ***** Laude from Harvard nor any of us work for Goldman Sachs. We are not on Wall Street.Some investors don’t like these facts. Again it is funny when one of the most successful trend followers last year was a taxi driver… now managing $4 billion dollars, or there is the ex policeman from Vienna Christian Baha, let alone the offsprings of the turtle traders.The key to successful investing in the commodity markets and forex markets are plain and simple. Simple ideas that have stood the test of time… with a strong measure of risk and money management… Discipline and Patience. The rest is empty ego…and not the way to compound your way to wealth.
Andrew Abraham
www.myinvestorsplace.com
EUR vs. USD Currency Forecast Into 2010
By: EliteGlobal
Currencies
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEUR vs. USD formed a rectangular pattern during July 2008 to till date and awaiting for the upside breakout at 1.44 levels. Once it breaks the 1.44 levels, US dollar will depreciate to 1.64 against euro. Due to global economic recovery, investor seeking commodities and equities rather than invest in US dollar.
Forex Outlook
* Forex markets are in consolidation phase which will provide the direction for the future. Global financial market and currency market also in consolidation phase along with the currency market
* Recent global economic activity shows the signs of stabilization which is contracted sharply in the first quarter of 2009 but the economic recovery will be slow and gradual. Continuous increase in the unemployment and rise in commodity prices are the major concern to the economic recovery.
* Global GDP growth is on pace to register a year of negative growth in 2009 for the first time in decades. Even though Global economic growth will turn to positive in next year, inflation will be the main concern for policy makers.
* Consumer confidence and business confidence across the various countries are increased in Q2 2009 compare to Q1 2009 implies the worst of the recession has passed. During the year 2010, Central banks would increase its interest rate to combat inflation.
EUR vs. USD has strong resistance at 1.42-1.44 levels and its struggling to break that level. Also it has strong resistance level at 1.36-1.38. So for next few months it will trade between 1.36-1.44 levels and after that we can expect depreciation of US dollar.
* During 2nd July, European Central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.0% on its policy meeting and we expects that the ECB to maintain its interest rate for next two Quarters to ensure the liquidity for economic growth.
* Even though flat trend in business investment and consumer spending, increase in the business confidence and consumer confidence implies the economic bottom out. But the continuous rise in the unemployment will slows the recovery.
* European Central Bank may print more money to buy Europe banks debt and buying euro-denominated covered bonds directly from primary and secondary markets over the next year in order to maintain the money supply.
* German investor confidence unexpectedly fell in July, indicates the recovery in Europe’s largest economy may take longer time than previously expected.
* Based on our forecast, US and Euro interest rate will be at 2.2 and 3.6 percent during end of the year 2010 due to drastic increase in monetary base by Fed Reserve will leads to inflation in end of the year 2009. The US fiscal deficit is estimated to reach 14% of GDP by end of the year.
* Overall, US economy is in better position in economic recovery than its European or Japanese counterparts. US economy will reach positive GDP in Q3 2009 but the recovery on European economy will be slow. But due to Global economic recovery, investors seeking high yield assets rather than US dollar. So US dollar is in long-term depreciating trend against Euro in 2009 and 2010.
By EliteGlobal Market Research
Currencies
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEUR vs. USD formed a rectangular pattern during July 2008 to till date and awaiting for the upside breakout at 1.44 levels. Once it breaks the 1.44 levels, US dollar will depreciate to 1.64 against euro. Due to global economic recovery, investor seeking commodities and equities rather than invest in US dollar.
Forex Outlook
* Forex markets are in consolidation phase which will provide the direction for the future. Global financial market and currency market also in consolidation phase along with the currency market
* Recent global economic activity shows the signs of stabilization which is contracted sharply in the first quarter of 2009 but the economic recovery will be slow and gradual. Continuous increase in the unemployment and rise in commodity prices are the major concern to the economic recovery.
* Global GDP growth is on pace to register a year of negative growth in 2009 for the first time in decades. Even though Global economic growth will turn to positive in next year, inflation will be the main concern for policy makers.
* Consumer confidence and business confidence across the various countries are increased in Q2 2009 compare to Q1 2009 implies the worst of the recession has passed. During the year 2010, Central banks would increase its interest rate to combat inflation.
EUR vs. USD has strong resistance at 1.42-1.44 levels and its struggling to break that level. Also it has strong resistance level at 1.36-1.38. So for next few months it will trade between 1.36-1.44 levels and after that we can expect depreciation of US dollar.
* During 2nd July, European Central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.0% on its policy meeting and we expects that the ECB to maintain its interest rate for next two Quarters to ensure the liquidity for economic growth.
* Even though flat trend in business investment and consumer spending, increase in the business confidence and consumer confidence implies the economic bottom out. But the continuous rise in the unemployment will slows the recovery.
* European Central Bank may print more money to buy Europe banks debt and buying euro-denominated covered bonds directly from primary and secondary markets over the next year in order to maintain the money supply.
* German investor confidence unexpectedly fell in July, indicates the recovery in Europe’s largest economy may take longer time than previously expected.
* Based on our forecast, US and Euro interest rate will be at 2.2 and 3.6 percent during end of the year 2010 due to drastic increase in monetary base by Fed Reserve will leads to inflation in end of the year 2009. The US fiscal deficit is estimated to reach 14% of GDP by end of the year.
* Overall, US economy is in better position in economic recovery than its European or Japanese counterparts. US economy will reach positive GDP in Q3 2009 but the recovery on European economy will be slow. But due to Global economic recovery, investors seeking high yield assets rather than US dollar. So US dollar is in long-term depreciating trend against Euro in 2009 and 2010.
By EliteGlobal Market Research
Crude Oil Price Rocked by Investory Data
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Commodities
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTerrible inventory data (much more than expected) has rocked the long side of crude oil this AM and the U.S. Oil Fund ETF (NYSE: USO). The price structure has pressed beneath its RISING 50 DMA at $66.29 into the low $63.50 area so far, and could be heading for a test of its 4 month support line, now at $61.30. Although today's action certainly has the fundamental catalyst to continue lower, let's be aware that the prior correction from the June highs above $73.00 into the July 13th low at $58.32 represents a completed MAJOR CORRECTION.
With that in mind, I am mindful of the upleg from the corrective low at $58.32 (7/13) to recovery rally peak at $68.99 (7/27). Today's weakness has plunged prices to $64.00, which just happens to be the exact 50% retracement support plateau of the July upleg ($63 represents the 62% retrace level). If oil prices hold between $64 and $63 on a closing basis, then I have to consider that this weakness is a "minor, but violent" correction of the July upleg, OR part of a larger, developing WIDE sideways, contracting range that has considerably more time, and directional swings ahead prior to either a new downleg OR a new bull move. MJP 7/29/09 11:30 AM ET ($63.35)
Commodities
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTerrible inventory data (much more than expected) has rocked the long side of crude oil this AM and the U.S. Oil Fund ETF (NYSE: USO). The price structure has pressed beneath its RISING 50 DMA at $66.29 into the low $63.50 area so far, and could be heading for a test of its 4 month support line, now at $61.30. Although today's action certainly has the fundamental catalyst to continue lower, let's be aware that the prior correction from the June highs above $73.00 into the July 13th low at $58.32 represents a completed MAJOR CORRECTION.
With that in mind, I am mindful of the upleg from the corrective low at $58.32 (7/13) to recovery rally peak at $68.99 (7/27). Today's weakness has plunged prices to $64.00, which just happens to be the exact 50% retracement support plateau of the July upleg ($63 represents the 62% retrace level). If oil prices hold between $64 and $63 on a closing basis, then I have to consider that this weakness is a "minor, but violent" correction of the July upleg, OR part of a larger, developing WIDE sideways, contracting range that has considerably more time, and directional swings ahead prior to either a new downleg OR a new bull move. MJP 7/29/09 11:30 AM ET ($63.35)
Warning Signals Sent By Gold Before Breakdown
By Corey Rosenbloom on July 30, 2009
I’ve heard on television all day about the “surprise” breakdown in gold prices over the last two days. Let’s take a look at one of the classic signals gold prices sent ahead of the down move this week, as well as learn a lesson on momentum.Let’s first start with the lessons from the past in this 60 minute of the mini-gold (@YG) continuous contract through July. Gold prices were moving down into the July 8th lows and then - along with the Stock Market - formed a tight consolidation instead of pushing lower as expected. The early signal that things were structurally changed came where I labeled the green arrow.
Price broke a confirmed descending trendline and broke sharply above the confluence of the 20 and 50 EMAs which served as a trend reversal (as price had formed a higher low and then took out two swing highs).From this point, a new uptrend was born, which was confirmed by new momentum highs.As price continued higher, we saw confirmation from spikes in the 3/10 Oscillator along with new price highs which hinted higher price highs were yet to come… and they did. We even had a nice bull flag entry to trade with low-risk to the upside that triggered entry on July 17th and 19th.
However, as price then pushed to new highs, we had three successive (relatively equal) “pushes” or new highs in price which formed on the classic divergence in the 3/10 (and other) momentum oscillators, which gave us the ominous “Three Push” reversal pattern that often leads to a price reversal… and it did. Price broke the support level and formed a new price and momentum low, which hinted that lower prices were yet to come, which was the case. Those skilled in discerning momentum principles, as well as trend/swing recognition, should not have been taken by surprise by this move down in gold.
I’ve heard on television all day about the “surprise” breakdown in gold prices over the last two days. Let’s take a look at one of the classic signals gold prices sent ahead of the down move this week, as well as learn a lesson on momentum.Let’s first start with the lessons from the past in this 60 minute of the mini-gold (@YG) continuous contract through July. Gold prices were moving down into the July 8th lows and then - along with the Stock Market - formed a tight consolidation instead of pushing lower as expected. The early signal that things were structurally changed came where I labeled the green arrow.
Price broke a confirmed descending trendline and broke sharply above the confluence of the 20 and 50 EMAs which served as a trend reversal (as price had formed a higher low and then took out two swing highs).From this point, a new uptrend was born, which was confirmed by new momentum highs.As price continued higher, we saw confirmation from spikes in the 3/10 Oscillator along with new price highs which hinted higher price highs were yet to come… and they did. We even had a nice bull flag entry to trade with low-risk to the upside that triggered entry on July 17th and 19th.
However, as price then pushed to new highs, we had three successive (relatively equal) “pushes” or new highs in price which formed on the classic divergence in the 3/10 (and other) momentum oscillators, which gave us the ominous “Three Push” reversal pattern that often leads to a price reversal… and it did. Price broke the support level and formed a new price and momentum low, which hinted that lower prices were yet to come, which was the case. Those skilled in discerning momentum principles, as well as trend/swing recognition, should not have been taken by surprise by this move down in gold.
Some Commodity Related Securities Outpacing Gold 15:1 YTD
By: Lorimer_Wilson
Commodities Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhere should we be investing what is left of our hard earned money these days? As the table below reveals having bought a basket of commodity related warrants with a minimum duration of at least 24 months at the beginning of 2009 would have been the right choice. Such warrants are up 111.9% YTD, up 12.8% in the past month and up 11.7% in just the last week. That is 14.7 times greater than the 7.6% YTD increase in gold, 13.3 times greater than the 8.4% increase in the S&P 500, 5.8 times greater than the 19.4% increase in the HUI and 4.8 times greater than the 23% YTD increase in silver.
* All calculations are based on U.S. dollar equivalent numbers
** Week ending July 24th, 2009
***CDNX is the symbol for the S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index consisting of 558 micro/nano cap companies of which 44% are engaged in the mining, exploration and/or development of gold and/or silver and other mineral resources and 18% in oil or natural gas pursuits.
****HUI is the symbol of the AMEX Gold BUGS (Basket of Un-hedged Gold Stocks) Index and is a modified equal dollar-weighted index of 15 large/mid cap gold mining companies that do not hedge their gold beyond 1.5 years.
*****GDM is the symbol for the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and is a modified market capitalization weighted index of 31 large/mid/small cap gold and silver mining companies.
******SPTGD is the symbol for the S&P/TSX Global Gold Index and is a modified market capitalization index of 19 large/mid cap precious metals mining companies.
Most people think of warrants (i.e. securities that give the holder the right, but not the obligation, to purchase common shares of a company at a specific price within a specific time period) as being associated primarily with micro/nano cap junior gold and silver mining companies but that is not entirely the case. Of the 35 companies offering warrants of 24 or more months duration (of which there are 48 in total):
* 6 are large-cap commodity based companies (2 gold mining companies; 2 royalty companies; 1 oil and gas company; and 1 molybdenum miner)
* 5 are small/mid-cap mining companies (2 gold, 1 coal, 1 uranium) and 1 oil and gas producer
* 24 are micro/nano cap companies of which 19 are in mining; 3 in merchant banking and 2 in oil and gas. They are primarily involved in the development of properties for mining/drilling and/or in the exploration phase of operations.
Investors who are interested in the considerable over-and-above returns that certain warrants can generate compared to investing in the company stock itself should become personally involved in the selection process. Firstly, they should undertake their own due diligence in determining which of the commodity related stocks with long-term warrants have, in their opinion, the most outstanding future stock price appreciation prospects. They should then determine which warrants of these selected companies have the most favourable leverage possibilities given the duration periods of the warrants being considered. The best way to make this all-important decision would be to make use of the services of preciousmetalswarrants.com. Only then would they be sufficiently informed to invest in an astute and prudent manner. To learn more about warrants as an investment please visit our site for detailed information, sign up for our free weekly newsletter and subscribe to one of our several one-of-a-kind services.
If you believe, as suggested by the outstanding YTD performance of commodity related stocks with long-term warrants, that:
* major inflation is coming in the years ahead (I do),
* the USD is going to decline vis-Ã -vis other currencies in the years to come (I do),
* the bull run in gold, silver and other commodities has many more years to go (I do),
* the profitability of commodity-related companies are going to increase as a result (I do),
* the price of most commodity-related stocks are then going to increase dramatically (I do),
* many of the junior miners/explorers will be bought out by the majors in the future (I do),
* that the worst of the economic/fiscal/financial crisis is yet to engulf us (I do),then you should prepare your portfolio to reflect these coming events.
One of the best ways to accomplish that objective would be to included a diversified selection of well-chosen high leverage/time value warrants (approx. 5-10% of your portfolio) along with some other commodity-related stocks and some silver and gold bullion during this period of summer doldrums. You will then be well prepared to ride out whatever financial/economic storm is around the corner.Please feel free to contact me at the address below with your comments and questions. I guarantee you a rely where requested.
Commodities Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhere should we be investing what is left of our hard earned money these days? As the table below reveals having bought a basket of commodity related warrants with a minimum duration of at least 24 months at the beginning of 2009 would have been the right choice. Such warrants are up 111.9% YTD, up 12.8% in the past month and up 11.7% in just the last week. That is 14.7 times greater than the 7.6% YTD increase in gold, 13.3 times greater than the 8.4% increase in the S&P 500, 5.8 times greater than the 19.4% increase in the HUI and 4.8 times greater than the 23% YTD increase in silver.
* All calculations are based on U.S. dollar equivalent numbers
** Week ending July 24th, 2009
***CDNX is the symbol for the S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index consisting of 558 micro/nano cap companies of which 44% are engaged in the mining, exploration and/or development of gold and/or silver and other mineral resources and 18% in oil or natural gas pursuits.
****HUI is the symbol of the AMEX Gold BUGS (Basket of Un-hedged Gold Stocks) Index and is a modified equal dollar-weighted index of 15 large/mid cap gold mining companies that do not hedge their gold beyond 1.5 years.
*****GDM is the symbol for the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and is a modified market capitalization weighted index of 31 large/mid/small cap gold and silver mining companies.
******SPTGD is the symbol for the S&P/TSX Global Gold Index and is a modified market capitalization index of 19 large/mid cap precious metals mining companies.
Most people think of warrants (i.e. securities that give the holder the right, but not the obligation, to purchase common shares of a company at a specific price within a specific time period) as being associated primarily with micro/nano cap junior gold and silver mining companies but that is not entirely the case. Of the 35 companies offering warrants of 24 or more months duration (of which there are 48 in total):
* 6 are large-cap commodity based companies (2 gold mining companies; 2 royalty companies; 1 oil and gas company; and 1 molybdenum miner)
* 5 are small/mid-cap mining companies (2 gold, 1 coal, 1 uranium) and 1 oil and gas producer
* 24 are micro/nano cap companies of which 19 are in mining; 3 in merchant banking and 2 in oil and gas. They are primarily involved in the development of properties for mining/drilling and/or in the exploration phase of operations.
Investors who are interested in the considerable over-and-above returns that certain warrants can generate compared to investing in the company stock itself should become personally involved in the selection process. Firstly, they should undertake their own due diligence in determining which of the commodity related stocks with long-term warrants have, in their opinion, the most outstanding future stock price appreciation prospects. They should then determine which warrants of these selected companies have the most favourable leverage possibilities given the duration periods of the warrants being considered. The best way to make this all-important decision would be to make use of the services of preciousmetalswarrants.com. Only then would they be sufficiently informed to invest in an astute and prudent manner. To learn more about warrants as an investment please visit our site for detailed information, sign up for our free weekly newsletter and subscribe to one of our several one-of-a-kind services.
If you believe, as suggested by the outstanding YTD performance of commodity related stocks with long-term warrants, that:
* major inflation is coming in the years ahead (I do),
* the USD is going to decline vis-Ã -vis other currencies in the years to come (I do),
* the bull run in gold, silver and other commodities has many more years to go (I do),
* the profitability of commodity-related companies are going to increase as a result (I do),
* the price of most commodity-related stocks are then going to increase dramatically (I do),
* many of the junior miners/explorers will be bought out by the majors in the future (I do),
* that the worst of the economic/fiscal/financial crisis is yet to engulf us (I do),then you should prepare your portfolio to reflect these coming events.
One of the best ways to accomplish that objective would be to included a diversified selection of well-chosen high leverage/time value warrants (approx. 5-10% of your portfolio) along with some other commodity-related stocks and some silver and gold bullion during this period of summer doldrums. You will then be well prepared to ride out whatever financial/economic storm is around the corner.Please feel free to contact me at the address below with your comments and questions. I guarantee you a rely where requested.
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
IHSG/Forex/Stodex Asia: Risk Appetite Akan Kembali, Potensi Kenaikan Saham/Euro & Pound/Nikkei/HangSeng
IHSG Outlook
Minimnya sentimen positif di awal pekan ini tidak diimbangi oleh meningkatnya sentimen negatif dari dalam dan luar negeri, mendorong IHSG sulit menguat ke target 2,256. Penurunan harga komoditi minyak ke level 63/barel (inventory crude oil AS meningkat 5.5 juta barel) memberikan momentum negatif kepada saham komoditi (pertambangan, logam dan perkebunan) hari ini. Kondisi teknikal IHSG yang overbought setelah menguat 4 hari berturut-turut hingga hari Selasa (28/07) dan mahalnya valuasi sejumlah saham unggulan, ikut membebani kinerja IHSG. Sementara faktor regional yang negatif, berkat kondisi teknikal overbought, laporan ekonomi AS (Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods Orders) meredam optimisme terhadap spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi global, rilisan earning dan Asia, mahalnya valuasi indeks saham MSCI Asia Pasific (Price/Earning 24.7x). Sementara IHSG masih mendapatkan support dari rupiah yang masih stabil dibawah level 10,000 per dolar, spekulasi penurunan suku bunga BI pekan depan dari perkiraan rendahnya inflasi bulan Juli dibandingkan Juni, GDP Q2 RI akan tercatat diatas perkiraan pasar (+3.7% y/y), dan earnings H1 2009 emiten lokal, seharusnya masih menopang kinerja saham perbankan, property, farmasi, infrastruktur dan aneka industri.
Stock Picks: Average last 5 week +37.51%. Target 10-20%, Risk < -10%.
Hold Buy: BUMI, ANTM ,INCO, TINS, WIKA, BMRI, BBKP, PGAS, MEDC, META, INKP, KIJA
Stock Picks:
BUMI hold target Rp 4150
FPNI buy target Rp 290
Global Outlook
Potensi penurunan indeks regional dan Wall Street masih terbuka, setelah kondisi teknikal menunjukkan pola reversal, diikuti minimnya isu positif dan meningkatnya sejumlah sentimen negatif yang ikut membebani kinerja indeks saham global (MSCI World Index) yang telah menguat 54% dari level terendah di bulan Maret hingga awal pekan ini. Penurunan harga komoditi (indeks Reuters CRB anjlok 9.4% dalam 2 hari terakhir), lemahnya earnings Jiangxi Copper Co, China Cosco Holdings, ConocoPhillips, lebih rendah dari perkiraan Durable Goods Orders AS (spekulasi GDP Q2 AS mengalami pertumbuhan kontraksi yang lebih besar dari perkiraan), Goldman Sachs memangkas rating Morgan Stanley, penerbitan 5 & 7 tahun Treasury senilai US$ 56 miliar, mendorong investor memburu kembali dolar AS sebagai safe haven, dibandingkan saham dan komoditi. Meski sentimen, fundamental (earnings), teknikal secara keseluruhan masih positif, dapat membatasi efek negatif hari ini.
Technical Analysis:
IHSG mendapatkan signal negatif dari pola candle hanging man (low reliability reversal), meski masih berada dalam uptrenc channel dan pola ascending channel major yang seharusnya membatasi efek negatif hari ini, selama ditutup diatas downward channel 2,202 dalam 2 hari berturut-turut, untuk target 2,256/2,300 (maksimal wave iii). Indikator ADX trending up, stochastic overbought, MACD bullish, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan konsolidasi dalam fase bullish yang ovebought. Hitungan Elliot Wave menunjukkan proses wave minor iii (perkiraan peak di 2,256) formasi i-v dalam impulse wave 5 - siklus subwave intermediate 4 / B.
Resistance: 2296.12/2270.51/2259.33/2248.16. PP 2219.29
Support : 2208.11/2196.94/2182.50/2168.06
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2200 - 2,256)
Technical Analysis
EUR-USD
(-60p) Euro telah menembus berkat pola channel dan pola candle two crows menunjukkan potensi penurunan lebih lanjut, didukung oleh indikator ADX naik, stochastic crossing up dan MACD bullish, seharusnya masih mendukung perkiraan kenaikan hari ini. Support berada di 1.4071 (20-day MA)/1.4143 (lower channel), Resistance berada di 1.4200/1.4305. Euro berada wave proses iv dalam wave 3 zig zag, untuk target $ 1.4330, selama tidak mencapai dibawah 1.4020. Hold buy 1.4070 target 1.4200, buy 1.3960 target 1.4200 stop 60p, buy break 1.4080 target 1.4200. sell 1.4270 & 1.4330 target 1.4150 buy break 1.4350 target 1.45.
USD-JPY
USDJPY masih berada dalam pola bearish uptrend channel di daily chart, meski kenaikan teratas di upper channel 95.31, bilamana ditutup diatas level tersebut akan memutarbalikan trend menjadi netral target 95.85/ (61.8 FE)/96.70. Indikator ADX rebound, stochastic crossup, MACD bearish, seharusnya mendukung peluang kenaikan terbatas selama gagal ditutup diatas 95.30. Resistance berada di 95.60, support di 94.00. Hold Buy 94.00 target 95.50 stop 100p. Sell 95.60 target 93.00. buy 93.50 & Buy 92.60 stop 89.80 target 95.60. Sell 96.70 target 95.00.
GBP-USD
GBP masih berada dalam uptrend channel dalam pola ascening triangle, pola congestion, diikuti indikator ADX menurun, stochastic crossing up dan MACD berada di teritorial bullish, mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas selama tidak ditutup dibawah 1.6325 (lower channel). Hold Buy 1.6380 target 1.6550. sell 1.6570 target 1.6320, buy 1.6100, Sell 1.6660 target 1.6350. Buy 1.6300 target 1.6550 syop dibawah 1.6250. Sell break 1.6260 target 1.6100 stop 100p. Buy break 1.6675 target 1.6840.
AUD-USD
AUD berada dalam pola uptrend channel minor dalam downtrend channel, meski pola congestion menunjukkan potensi technical rebound terbatas, diikuti ADX koreksi, stochastic overbought, MACD masih bullish, mendukung potensi kenaikan 0.8350, selama di bawah 0.7865. Resistance di 0.8258, support di 0.8000. Buy 0.7950 & buy 7870 target 0.8100, sell 0.8300 target 0.8000 & sell 0.8350 stop 0.8400. sell break 0.8090 target 0.7950. Buy 0.8130 target 0.8300 stop 0.8060.
Laporan Pasar
Nikkei Futures Kontrak September (SSIU9)
Di chart daily, indeks menunjukkan formasi double top meski indeks berada dalam uptrend channel, diikuti pola candle menunjukkan side-by side. Sementara sejumlah indikator masih mendukung potensi kenaikan, ADX trending up, stochastic dan MACD bullish, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas. Resistance di 10195 (upper channel)/10443). Support 9945 (former resitance) /9729 (61.8% FR). Perkiraan range hari ini 9900-10200. Rekomendasi Sell 10185 & 10400 target 9700 stp 100p. Buy 9900 target 10200 stop 100p, Buy 9740 target 10000 stop 50p, sell break 9830 target 9500.
Kospi Futures Kontrak September (KSU9)
Dalam chart daily, indeks masih berada dalam pola uptrend channel dan membentuk pola broadening bullish, meski menunjukkan pola bearish harami. Kondisi stochastic overbought, MACD bullish dan ADX trending up, seharusnya masih mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas. Resistance berada di 199.30/200.75/202.50. Support di 197.30/195.80. Rekomendasi Sell break 197.00 & 193.00 target 190.00 stop 100p, buy 190.00 target 195.00, buy 185.50 target 183.00 stop 100p. Sell 200.70 & 202.50 target 195.00 stop 100p Chart KSU9 Daily
Hang Seng Futures Kontrak Juli (HSIN9)
Dalam chart daily, indeks berada dalam pola uptrend channel dalam formasi bullish broadening ,meski menunjukkan pola candle bearish harami dengan spike low, ADX meningkat, stochastic crossup, MACD bullish seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan. Resistance di 20,520/20660/20867 (161.8 FR). Support 20200/19750. Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan wave v extended dalam subwave motive (3) cycle B. Rekomendasi : Sell break 20000 target 19760 (or closing) stop 100 p. Buy break 20300 target 20600. Buy 19.760 target 19500. buy break 20690 target 20950. buy break 20950 target 21500 stop 100p, sell 20650 & 20860 target 20250 (-100p+190p+450p)
www.strategydesk.co.id
www.universalbroker.co.id (code TF)
www.harumdanaberjangka.co.id
Minimnya sentimen positif di awal pekan ini tidak diimbangi oleh meningkatnya sentimen negatif dari dalam dan luar negeri, mendorong IHSG sulit menguat ke target 2,256. Penurunan harga komoditi minyak ke level 63/barel (inventory crude oil AS meningkat 5.5 juta barel) memberikan momentum negatif kepada saham komoditi (pertambangan, logam dan perkebunan) hari ini. Kondisi teknikal IHSG yang overbought setelah menguat 4 hari berturut-turut hingga hari Selasa (28/07) dan mahalnya valuasi sejumlah saham unggulan, ikut membebani kinerja IHSG. Sementara faktor regional yang negatif, berkat kondisi teknikal overbought, laporan ekonomi AS (Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods Orders) meredam optimisme terhadap spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi global, rilisan earning dan Asia, mahalnya valuasi indeks saham MSCI Asia Pasific (Price/Earning 24.7x). Sementara IHSG masih mendapatkan support dari rupiah yang masih stabil dibawah level 10,000 per dolar, spekulasi penurunan suku bunga BI pekan depan dari perkiraan rendahnya inflasi bulan Juli dibandingkan Juni, GDP Q2 RI akan tercatat diatas perkiraan pasar (+3.7% y/y), dan earnings H1 2009 emiten lokal, seharusnya masih menopang kinerja saham perbankan, property, farmasi, infrastruktur dan aneka industri.
Stock Picks: Average last 5 week +37.51%. Target 10-20%, Risk < -10%.
Hold Buy: BUMI, ANTM ,INCO, TINS, WIKA, BMRI, BBKP, PGAS, MEDC, META, INKP, KIJA
Stock Picks:
BUMI hold target Rp 4150
FPNI buy target Rp 290
Global Outlook
Potensi penurunan indeks regional dan Wall Street masih terbuka, setelah kondisi teknikal menunjukkan pola reversal, diikuti minimnya isu positif dan meningkatnya sejumlah sentimen negatif yang ikut membebani kinerja indeks saham global (MSCI World Index) yang telah menguat 54% dari level terendah di bulan Maret hingga awal pekan ini. Penurunan harga komoditi (indeks Reuters CRB anjlok 9.4% dalam 2 hari terakhir), lemahnya earnings Jiangxi Copper Co, China Cosco Holdings, ConocoPhillips, lebih rendah dari perkiraan Durable Goods Orders AS (spekulasi GDP Q2 AS mengalami pertumbuhan kontraksi yang lebih besar dari perkiraan), Goldman Sachs memangkas rating Morgan Stanley, penerbitan 5 & 7 tahun Treasury senilai US$ 56 miliar, mendorong investor memburu kembali dolar AS sebagai safe haven, dibandingkan saham dan komoditi. Meski sentimen, fundamental (earnings), teknikal secara keseluruhan masih positif, dapat membatasi efek negatif hari ini.
Technical Analysis:
IHSG mendapatkan signal negatif dari pola candle hanging man (low reliability reversal), meski masih berada dalam uptrenc channel dan pola ascending channel major yang seharusnya membatasi efek negatif hari ini, selama ditutup diatas downward channel 2,202 dalam 2 hari berturut-turut, untuk target 2,256/2,300 (maksimal wave iii). Indikator ADX trending up, stochastic overbought, MACD bullish, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan konsolidasi dalam fase bullish yang ovebought. Hitungan Elliot Wave menunjukkan proses wave minor iii (perkiraan peak di 2,256) formasi i-v dalam impulse wave 5 - siklus subwave intermediate 4 / B.
Resistance: 2296.12/2270.51/2259.33/2248.16. PP 2219.29
Support : 2208.11/2196.94/2182.50/2168.06
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2200 - 2,256)
Technical Analysis
EUR-USD
(-60p) Euro telah menembus berkat pola channel dan pola candle two crows menunjukkan potensi penurunan lebih lanjut, didukung oleh indikator ADX naik, stochastic crossing up dan MACD bullish, seharusnya masih mendukung perkiraan kenaikan hari ini. Support berada di 1.4071 (20-day MA)/1.4143 (lower channel), Resistance berada di 1.4200/1.4305. Euro berada wave proses iv dalam wave 3 zig zag, untuk target $ 1.4330, selama tidak mencapai dibawah 1.4020. Hold buy 1.4070 target 1.4200, buy 1.3960 target 1.4200 stop 60p, buy break 1.4080 target 1.4200. sell 1.4270 & 1.4330 target 1.4150 buy break 1.4350 target 1.45.
USD-JPY
USDJPY masih berada dalam pola bearish uptrend channel di daily chart, meski kenaikan teratas di upper channel 95.31, bilamana ditutup diatas level tersebut akan memutarbalikan trend menjadi netral target 95.85/ (61.8 FE)/96.70. Indikator ADX rebound, stochastic crossup, MACD bearish, seharusnya mendukung peluang kenaikan terbatas selama gagal ditutup diatas 95.30. Resistance berada di 95.60, support di 94.00. Hold Buy 94.00 target 95.50 stop 100p. Sell 95.60 target 93.00. buy 93.50 & Buy 92.60 stop 89.80 target 95.60. Sell 96.70 target 95.00.
GBP-USD
GBP masih berada dalam uptrend channel dalam pola ascening triangle, pola congestion, diikuti indikator ADX menurun, stochastic crossing up dan MACD berada di teritorial bullish, mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas selama tidak ditutup dibawah 1.6325 (lower channel). Hold Buy 1.6380 target 1.6550. sell 1.6570 target 1.6320, buy 1.6100, Sell 1.6660 target 1.6350. Buy 1.6300 target 1.6550 syop dibawah 1.6250. Sell break 1.6260 target 1.6100 stop 100p. Buy break 1.6675 target 1.6840.
AUD-USD
AUD berada dalam pola uptrend channel minor dalam downtrend channel, meski pola congestion menunjukkan potensi technical rebound terbatas, diikuti ADX koreksi, stochastic overbought, MACD masih bullish, mendukung potensi kenaikan 0.8350, selama di bawah 0.7865. Resistance di 0.8258, support di 0.8000. Buy 0.7950 & buy 7870 target 0.8100, sell 0.8300 target 0.8000 & sell 0.8350 stop 0.8400. sell break 0.8090 target 0.7950. Buy 0.8130 target 0.8300 stop 0.8060.
Laporan Pasar
Nikkei Futures Kontrak September (SSIU9)
Di chart daily, indeks menunjukkan formasi double top meski indeks berada dalam uptrend channel, diikuti pola candle menunjukkan side-by side. Sementara sejumlah indikator masih mendukung potensi kenaikan, ADX trending up, stochastic dan MACD bullish, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas. Resistance di 10195 (upper channel)/10443). Support 9945 (former resitance) /9729 (61.8% FR). Perkiraan range hari ini 9900-10200. Rekomendasi Sell 10185 & 10400 target 9700 stp 100p. Buy 9900 target 10200 stop 100p, Buy 9740 target 10000 stop 50p, sell break 9830 target 9500.
Kospi Futures Kontrak September (KSU9)
Dalam chart daily, indeks masih berada dalam pola uptrend channel dan membentuk pola broadening bullish, meski menunjukkan pola bearish harami. Kondisi stochastic overbought, MACD bullish dan ADX trending up, seharusnya masih mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas. Resistance berada di 199.30/200.75/202.50. Support di 197.30/195.80. Rekomendasi Sell break 197.00 & 193.00 target 190.00 stop 100p, buy 190.00 target 195.00, buy 185.50 target 183.00 stop 100p. Sell 200.70 & 202.50 target 195.00 stop 100p Chart KSU9 Daily
Hang Seng Futures Kontrak Juli (HSIN9)
Dalam chart daily, indeks berada dalam pola uptrend channel dalam formasi bullish broadening ,meski menunjukkan pola candle bearish harami dengan spike low, ADX meningkat, stochastic crossup, MACD bullish seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan. Resistance di 20,520/20660/20867 (161.8 FR). Support 20200/19750. Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan wave v extended dalam subwave motive (3) cycle B. Rekomendasi : Sell break 20000 target 19760 (or closing) stop 100 p. Buy break 20300 target 20600. Buy 19.760 target 19500. buy break 20690 target 20950. buy break 20950 target 21500 stop 100p, sell 20650 & 20860 target 20250 (-100p+190p+450p)
www.strategydesk.co.id
www.universalbroker.co.id (code TF)
www.harumdanaberjangka.co.id
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Wed Jul 29 09 06:36 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's pull back from 68.99 is still in progress and may extend further. However, downside is expected to be contained by 62.44 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 58.32 to 68.99 at 62.39) and bring rally resumption. Above 68.99 will target a retest of 73.38 high but initial resistance will likely be seen there. However, break of 62.44 will argue that rise from 58.32 has completed. Also, this will revive the case that crude oil's fall from 73.83 has not completed yet and will put focus back to 58.32 low.
In the bigger picture, the stronger then expected rebound from 58.32 and break of 66.25 resistance dampened the bearish view that whole rise from 33.2 has completed at 73.38. Also, considering that crude oil is still trading inside medium term rising channel despite earlier brief break, rise from 33.2 is possibly still in progress. Break of 73.83 high will confirm this case and should target 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next. On the downside, break of 58.32 low will revive the case that crude oil has topped out and will bring fall resumption to 54.66 key support next.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's pull back from 68.99 is still in progress and may extend further. However, downside is expected to be contained by 62.44 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 58.32 to 68.99 at 62.39) and bring rally resumption. Above 68.99 will target a retest of 73.38 high but initial resistance will likely be seen there. However, break of 62.44 will argue that rise from 58.32 has completed. Also, this will revive the case that crude oil's fall from 73.83 has not completed yet and will put focus back to 58.32 low.
In the bigger picture, the stronger then expected rebound from 58.32 and break of 66.25 resistance dampened the bearish view that whole rise from 33.2 has completed at 73.38. Also, considering that crude oil is still trading inside medium term rising channel despite earlier brief break, rise from 33.2 is possibly still in progress. Break of 73.83 high will confirm this case and should target 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next. On the downside, break of 58.32 low will revive the case that crude oil has topped out and will bring fall resumption to 54.66 key support next.
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Wed Jul 29 09 06:37 ET
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's sharp fall from 962.7 suggests that a short term top is in place. Nevertheless, with 930.7 support intact, another rise is still in favor. Above 962 will bring retest of 992.1 high. However, note that a break of 930.7 will indicate that rebound from 904.8 has completed and will put focus back to this low.
In the bigger picture, the earlier than expected completion of fall from 992.1 suggests that it's part of the consolidation from 1007.7 or a correction to rise from 865. In either case, there are still some possible scenarios that will bring more consolidation below 1007.7. So we'd stay neutral as long as 1007.7 resistance holds and be prepared for another fall before completing the consolidation. Anyway, break of 992.1 /1007.7 resistance will indicate that whole rise from 681 has resumed for 1033.9 key resistance next.
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's sharp fall from 962.7 suggests that a short term top is in place. Nevertheless, with 930.7 support intact, another rise is still in favor. Above 962 will bring retest of 992.1 high. However, note that a break of 930.7 will indicate that rebound from 904.8 has completed and will put focus back to this low.
In the bigger picture, the earlier than expected completion of fall from 992.1 suggests that it's part of the consolidation from 1007.7 or a correction to rise from 865. In either case, there are still some possible scenarios that will bring more consolidation below 1007.7. So we'd stay neutral as long as 1007.7 resistance holds and be prepared for another fall before completing the consolidation. Anyway, break of 992.1 /1007.7 resistance will indicate that whole rise from 681 has resumed for 1033.9 key resistance next.
Daily Technical Analysis Forex & Gold
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank
EURUSD
Comment: Painfully slow as the Euro keeps on shying away from this year's high at 1.4339. Patience, but eventually bullish moving averages and a thick Ichimoku 'cloud' should nudge it higher. Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.4150; stop well below 1.4100. Short term target 1.4300/1.4339, a lot more on a sustained break above 1.4375.Direction of Trade: → ↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.4139 " 1.42
1.41 1.425
1.4065 1.4305
1.395 1.4339*
1.39 1.4365*
GBPUSD
Comment: Nothing to add as Cable hovers reluctantly under the upper edge of a 'triangle' consolidation pattern.Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6400; stop well below 1.6300. First target 1.6550/1.6600 and then this year's high at 1.6745 Direction of Trade: →↗ Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.6385 " 1.647
1.63 1.6558/1.6587
1.6266 1.6625
1.62 1.6664
1.6187 1.6745*
USDJPY
Comment: Stalling against Fibonacci retracement and dropping back down to a sort of 'neckline' of a large toping pattern that has been building since March. Momentum has yet to turn bearish so we might be in for another slow week.Strategy: Attempt shorts at 94.15, adding to 94.80; stop well above 95.40. Add to shorts on a sustained break below 94.00 for 93.25 Direction of Trade: → Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
94.16 " 94.68
94 94.8
93.85 95.15
93.5 95.39*
93.00* 96.25*
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex | Jul 29 09 06:11 GMT |
Rupee : Rupee corrected till 48.40 due to sell off in commodities and currencies in yesterday's US Session. It needs to break 48.60 to get a confirmation of the uptrend resuming again. Its likely to hover in a range of 48.30-48.45 today. Its important that it should get support from pound / euro and international stocks to maintain weakness further. Please note that there are stiff resistances in BSE and NSE at the current valuations. Only a break of 48.00 would confirm that rupee is entering a fresh leg of strength again. Mildly bullish.(USD/INR : 48.37)
Gold : Gold encontered a steep fall of 25 dollars yesterday unable to break 960 dollars.As mentioned earlier gold was still in a consolidation phase and a sell off was very much expected. Bearish below 946 dollars. (Gold- $937.40.). Mildly Bearish
Dollar Index : The Dollar Index (basket against 6 currencies with EUR accounting for 57% of the basket) has tested the June lows at 78.31, a break of which would be the lowest since December. We should once again expect to hold at 78.25 -- the 61.8% retracement of the rise from the 71.29 low to the 89.50 high. But its time for a corrective bounce again. If we calculate , the equivalent 77.90 support in the dollar index translates roughly to $1.4320 in EURUSD resistance, $1.6570 in GBPUSD resistance, 0.8360-70 in AUDUSD and 0.6650 in NZDUSD, all of which are expected to hold into first week of August. (Dollar Index - 78.84) Range Bound
EURUSD
Comment: Painfully slow as the Euro keeps on shying away from this year's high at 1.4339. Patience, but eventually bullish moving averages and a thick Ichimoku 'cloud' should nudge it higher. Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.4150; stop well below 1.4100. Short term target 1.4300/1.4339, a lot more on a sustained break above 1.4375.Direction of Trade: → ↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.4139 " 1.42
1.41 1.425
1.4065 1.4305
1.395 1.4339*
1.39 1.4365*
GBPUSD
Comment: Nothing to add as Cable hovers reluctantly under the upper edge of a 'triangle' consolidation pattern.Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6400; stop well below 1.6300. First target 1.6550/1.6600 and then this year's high at 1.6745 Direction of Trade: →↗ Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.6385 " 1.647
1.63 1.6558/1.6587
1.6266 1.6625
1.62 1.6664
1.6187 1.6745*
USDJPY
Comment: Stalling against Fibonacci retracement and dropping back down to a sort of 'neckline' of a large toping pattern that has been building since March. Momentum has yet to turn bearish so we might be in for another slow week.Strategy: Attempt shorts at 94.15, adding to 94.80; stop well above 95.40. Add to shorts on a sustained break below 94.00 for 93.25 Direction of Trade: → Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
94.16 " 94.68
94 94.8
93.85 95.15
93.5 95.39*
93.00* 96.25*
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex | Jul 29 09 06:11 GMT |
Rupee : Rupee corrected till 48.40 due to sell off in commodities and currencies in yesterday's US Session. It needs to break 48.60 to get a confirmation of the uptrend resuming again. Its likely to hover in a range of 48.30-48.45 today. Its important that it should get support from pound / euro and international stocks to maintain weakness further. Please note that there are stiff resistances in BSE and NSE at the current valuations. Only a break of 48.00 would confirm that rupee is entering a fresh leg of strength again. Mildly bullish.(USD/INR : 48.37)
Gold : Gold encontered a steep fall of 25 dollars yesterday unable to break 960 dollars.As mentioned earlier gold was still in a consolidation phase and a sell off was very much expected. Bearish below 946 dollars. (Gold- $937.40.). Mildly Bearish
Dollar Index : The Dollar Index (basket against 6 currencies with EUR accounting for 57% of the basket) has tested the June lows at 78.31, a break of which would be the lowest since December. We should once again expect to hold at 78.25 -- the 61.8% retracement of the rise from the 71.29 low to the 89.50 high. But its time for a corrective bounce again. If we calculate , the equivalent 77.90 support in the dollar index translates roughly to $1.4320 in EURUSD resistance, $1.6570 in GBPUSD resistance, 0.8360-70 in AUDUSD and 0.6650 in NZDUSD, all of which are expected to hold into first week of August. (Dollar Index - 78.84) Range Bound
Elliot Wave: Aud/Usd; Wave 5) in Progress, S&P Futures; Long-term Bullish; Near-term Bearish-Correction
Daily Forex Technicals |
Aud/Usd; Wave 5) in Progress
Weekly chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 0.6007, and 0.9848. Looking for: Wave 2/B top.
On the aussie weekly chart, we are looking for a corrective red wave 2/B since the market has fallen sharply down to the previous wave 1/A. Wave 2 or wave B usually retraces 61.8% of the previous leg, which means we may see a move up to the 0.8400 area before wave 2/B can be completed. On the RSI indicator, we can also see enough room for the market to move up into the “over-bought” area. The wave count will be valid as long the 0.9848 high holds.
Daily chart trend: Long. Main price points: 0.7701, and 0.8262 Looking for: Wave 5)
On the Aussie daily chart,prices are trading very close to this year highs, where a possible break of the 0.8262 area will be the key for a much higher levels of this year. We are looking at a blue wave 5), which should trade above the 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement area with an impulse structure. The impulse structure means that this wave 5) must be made by another five sub-waves, which will be recognizable on a smaller time frame.
The more precise target of a blue wave 5) is shown at the 0.8595 zone.
4 Hour chart trend: Long. Main price points: 0.7701. Looking for: Wave III)
Aussie has been extremely bullish in the last couple of hours, as the market broke through 0.8262 yearly highs. On this pair, the structure is also impulsive, therefore new, higher levels are expected. The first target of that move, is shown around the 61.8% Fibonacci level, where it may be just a temporary top of a red wave III), before a corrective wave IV) gets on the way.
S&P Futures; Long-term Bullish; Near-term Bearish-Correction
Weekly chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 665.50, and 1252.50. Looking for: Move to 50% Fibonacci level.
S&P Futures are very bullish on the weekly chart, after a powerful bounce off of the 665.50 support area that was created at the start of this year. This recent uptrend, however, could be a pull-back in wave 4 of a bearish impulse count, with wave 5 yet to come. In this case, wave 4 must not overlap the territory of wave 1.
The converse technical view is that it may also be a start of a new long-term uptrend, if we consider a possible three wave structure from the 1586 top to the 665.50 lows.
Current prices are threatening the long-term trend-line, where a break-out could signal higher prices in the following weeks. The 50% Fibonacci retracement area will be the first target after a break of the 38.2% retracement area.
Daily chart trend: Long. Main price points: 865, and 1030. Looking for: Wave 5
S&P futures are showing an impulse structure on a daily chart after a break of 957 in the past week. The previous corrective wave count moved into an impulse count, from 665 lows to current highs. Wave 5 of this wave count is technically set, as the prices have broken through the previous wave 3 highs, which is confirming a move into a higher wave 5 target around 1030 area. The target will be valid, so as long the 865, wave 4 lows holds.When we compare the daily wave count with a weekly count, it seems that a huge wave 4 (weekly chart) is not the case here, as we have an impulse structure on a daily chart. The wave 4 is a corrective wave and not impulsive wave, which means that a much higher level is easily possible to be reached later this year.
4 Hour chart trend: Long. Main price points: 865, and 1030. Looking for: Wave 2)
S&P futures are extremely overbought after an amazing rally from 865 lows to current highs. As we covered on the daily wave count; wave 5 is on the way, as the market broke through a long term weekly trend-line around 915 area. This break was the key for a move into new yearly highs with the black wave 5.Wave 5 is impulsive wave which means that is subdivided by a five smaller waves. Therefore the market may now be trading at the top of at the first red wave 1) with a correction in wave 2) to follow. Traders should be looking for three waves of pull-back, near to the previous blue wave IV trading area.
Aud/Usd; Wave 5) in Progress
Weekly chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 0.6007, and 0.9848. Looking for: Wave 2/B top.
On the aussie weekly chart, we are looking for a corrective red wave 2/B since the market has fallen sharply down to the previous wave 1/A. Wave 2 or wave B usually retraces 61.8% of the previous leg, which means we may see a move up to the 0.8400 area before wave 2/B can be completed. On the RSI indicator, we can also see enough room for the market to move up into the “over-bought” area. The wave count will be valid as long the 0.9848 high holds.
Daily chart trend: Long. Main price points: 0.7701, and 0.8262 Looking for: Wave 5)
On the Aussie daily chart,prices are trading very close to this year highs, where a possible break of the 0.8262 area will be the key for a much higher levels of this year. We are looking at a blue wave 5), which should trade above the 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement area with an impulse structure. The impulse structure means that this wave 5) must be made by another five sub-waves, which will be recognizable on a smaller time frame.
The more precise target of a blue wave 5) is shown at the 0.8595 zone.
4 Hour chart trend: Long. Main price points: 0.7701. Looking for: Wave III)
Aussie has been extremely bullish in the last couple of hours, as the market broke through 0.8262 yearly highs. On this pair, the structure is also impulsive, therefore new, higher levels are expected. The first target of that move, is shown around the 61.8% Fibonacci level, where it may be just a temporary top of a red wave III), before a corrective wave IV) gets on the way.
S&P Futures; Long-term Bullish; Near-term Bearish-Correction
Weekly chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 665.50, and 1252.50. Looking for: Move to 50% Fibonacci level.
S&P Futures are very bullish on the weekly chart, after a powerful bounce off of the 665.50 support area that was created at the start of this year. This recent uptrend, however, could be a pull-back in wave 4 of a bearish impulse count, with wave 5 yet to come. In this case, wave 4 must not overlap the territory of wave 1.
The converse technical view is that it may also be a start of a new long-term uptrend, if we consider a possible three wave structure from the 1586 top to the 665.50 lows.
Current prices are threatening the long-term trend-line, where a break-out could signal higher prices in the following weeks. The 50% Fibonacci retracement area will be the first target after a break of the 38.2% retracement area.
Daily chart trend: Long. Main price points: 865, and 1030. Looking for: Wave 5
S&P futures are showing an impulse structure on a daily chart after a break of 957 in the past week. The previous corrective wave count moved into an impulse count, from 665 lows to current highs. Wave 5 of this wave count is technically set, as the prices have broken through the previous wave 3 highs, which is confirming a move into a higher wave 5 target around 1030 area. The target will be valid, so as long the 865, wave 4 lows holds.When we compare the daily wave count with a weekly count, it seems that a huge wave 4 (weekly chart) is not the case here, as we have an impulse structure on a daily chart. The wave 4 is a corrective wave and not impulsive wave, which means that a much higher level is easily possible to be reached later this year.
4 Hour chart trend: Long. Main price points: 865, and 1030. Looking for: Wave 2)
S&P futures are extremely overbought after an amazing rally from 865 lows to current highs. As we covered on the daily wave count; wave 5 is on the way, as the market broke through a long term weekly trend-line around 915 area. This break was the key for a move into new yearly highs with the black wave 5.Wave 5 is impulsive wave which means that is subdivided by a five smaller waves. Therefore the market may now be trading at the top of at the first red wave 1) with a correction in wave 2) to follow. Traders should be looking for three waves of pull-back, near to the previous blue wave IV trading area.
S&P 500 Advanced Technical Analysis
By Corey Rosenbloom on July 29, 2009
On rare occasion, I post “Chart Art” of advanced level technical analysis methods on the S&P 500 (^GSPC: 979.62 0.00 0.00%). In this updated example, I take a look at a 1 point Gann Fan angled down from the highs which is then combined with Fibonacci Arcs that radiate down also from the 2007 highs. Let’s see this chart and note key inflection points.
(Click on Image for Full-Size)
Again, the method being this ‘madness’ is taking a standard Gann Fan (available on most advanced charting platforms - this is using TradeStation) and inputing a 1 point calculation to create the resulting down-sloping lines from the high. Notice how price sometimes inflects off these fan lines as price challenges them. Nothing is ever 100%, but few traders use this tool (properly). In conjunction with the Gann Fan, I’m drawing a Fibonacci Circle (arc) tool off the initial swing down into the mid-January 2008 lows. The resulting arcs are either Fibonacci or other important ratios of the original arc (the 100% radius). Notice how price ‘rides’ the arcs as it interacts with the arcs.The only other ’strange’ method I’ve done is draw horizontal lines from the expansions (end) of each circle.
That’s as much as I want to say about this chart without revealing any proprietary methods.The highlighted zones reflect key turning points that occurred at a level and particularly at an ‘intersection’ or node between the Fan Lines and the Arcs.
Currently, price has broken above a critical node and is in “Open Air” as revealed by this chart. This means that breaking above the 950 high was quite significant. It would be even more significant if bulls can push price beyond the 1,000 target (round-number resistance).This also shows you a peek into the world of advanced level technical analysis which can reveal hidden insights classic models might miss… or can add a level of confirmation above and beyond classic technical methods.
On rare occasion, I post “Chart Art” of advanced level technical analysis methods on the S&P 500 (^GSPC: 979.62 0.00 0.00%). In this updated example, I take a look at a 1 point Gann Fan angled down from the highs which is then combined with Fibonacci Arcs that radiate down also from the 2007 highs. Let’s see this chart and note key inflection points.
(Click on Image for Full-Size)
Again, the method being this ‘madness’ is taking a standard Gann Fan (available on most advanced charting platforms - this is using TradeStation) and inputing a 1 point calculation to create the resulting down-sloping lines from the high. Notice how price sometimes inflects off these fan lines as price challenges them. Nothing is ever 100%, but few traders use this tool (properly). In conjunction with the Gann Fan, I’m drawing a Fibonacci Circle (arc) tool off the initial swing down into the mid-January 2008 lows. The resulting arcs are either Fibonacci or other important ratios of the original arc (the 100% radius). Notice how price ‘rides’ the arcs as it interacts with the arcs.The only other ’strange’ method I’ve done is draw horizontal lines from the expansions (end) of each circle.
That’s as much as I want to say about this chart without revealing any proprietary methods.The highlighted zones reflect key turning points that occurred at a level and particularly at an ‘intersection’ or node between the Fan Lines and the Arcs.
Currently, price has broken above a critical node and is in “Open Air” as revealed by this chart. This means that breaking above the 950 high was quite significant. It would be even more significant if bulls can push price beyond the 1,000 target (round-number resistance).This also shows you a peek into the world of advanced level technical analysis which can reveal hidden insights classic models might miss… or can add a level of confirmation above and beyond classic technical methods.
Market Timing More Important Than Stock Selection
By Joseph Meth on July 29, 2009 | More Posts By Joseph Meth | Author's Website
No matter which way you look at it, this market is “trendless”. If you’re a short-term trader, then you know that the market today is about where it was at the beginning of June. An intermediate-term trader, knows that the market is where it was last October and has been forming that inverted head-and-shoulder pattern (note: H+S patterns are reversal patterns at bottoms or tops but rarely consolidation patterns within a trend). And if you’re a long-term trader then you know that the market is almost exactly where it was in 2002-03 and far below the highs of 2000 and 2007. Furthermore, I hope you now believe that there’s about a 70% probability that stocks move in sync with the market. If the market trends up, stocks you own will also likely move up; the only thing you don’t know is whether it will be a greater or lesser percentage move. Conversely, if the market trends down, it’s nearly impossible to find a stock that moves against that decline. That’s why you don’t have to be a genius to make money in up markets and, in down markets - well, you’ve heard the saying, “the winner is the one who loses the least.”
I think the past 24 months has proven that diversification is a false promise. It didn’t matter whether you were diversified across industries, across growth or value, across US and international stocks - the only thing that could have protected your portfolio was moving into cash.So what should your portfolio strategy be in any market, especially those that are “trendless” corrections? Mine, in a nutshell, is:
1. Measure the portfolio’s performance relative to a benchmark (mine is the S&P 500 (^GSPC: 979.62 -2.56 -0.26%) but any will do so long as it’s applied consistently) every day and keep an on-going, graphic record of that daily performance (mine goes back to 2002 relative to the S&P 500).
2. It’s more important to decide how much I want to put at risk (100%, 60%, 35% or 0% invested in stocks) than how many and which specific stocks the money is in.
3. When the market is trending up, aim to have as much of the money invested in stocks having a high volatility. In that sense, it more important to have 40% invested in stocks that will likely appreciate twice as fast as the market than it is to have 80% invested in stocks that appreciate less than the market.
4. When the market is trending down, take steps to reduce risk and exposure by:
* Selling portions of the positions that have had the largest percentage gains (selling the whole position might cause you to lose track of some potential long-term “triple baggers”)
* Sell recent additions; in all likelihood there won’t be any opportunity cost in doing so.
* Hedge the remaining exposure by purchasing either puts on the SPY or purchasing a short Index ETF’s (if your portfolio moves the same percentage as the S&P, each $1 in a double short will hedge $2 of the portfolio).
* Things are different today from they’ve ever been with the introduction of nearly half as many ETFs and ADR’s as there are domestic stocks. When appropriate, diversify the exposure by shifting portions into commodity, foreign exchange, foreign market and debt ETFs (both long and short).
I have some great stocks right now, many of which I’ve listed here and some that I haven’t shared with you yet. As a matter of fact, they all have or are on the verge of having broken out of reversal patterns or crossing above some significant resistance (either trendline or moving average). But in what I believe will be a frustrating market for the next several weeks, you earn no points and clearly will have a hard time making any money by trying to find stocks that go up as the market moves aimlessly or actually declines. You only continue to add to the performance relative to your benchmark by reducing your risk exposure.
I’ve written about the “traders’ remorse” correction I see coming over the balance of the summer and I’ve decided to act in response to that belief on my own portfolio. I don’t invest in stocks; I put money at risk to earn a return. I don’t get married to my positions because there’s no way to tell which stocks and which industries will lead when the correction ends. It’s been at around 65% invested and I look forward to the day soon when I will feel comfortable enough to be “all-in”. But, given that potential market correction, I’ve started employing some of the strategies described above.One final point: Tax considerations is always given as an arguments against employing market timing strategies. “You want to hold your stocks so you can get long-term capital gains treatment, don’t you?” Well, not really, because most investors now have a large percentage of their invested money in tax deferred retirement accounts where the only consideration is growing and preserving the money; holding period is irrelevant.
No matter which way you look at it, this market is “trendless”. If you’re a short-term trader, then you know that the market today is about where it was at the beginning of June. An intermediate-term trader, knows that the market is where it was last October and has been forming that inverted head-and-shoulder pattern (note: H+S patterns are reversal patterns at bottoms or tops but rarely consolidation patterns within a trend). And if you’re a long-term trader then you know that the market is almost exactly where it was in 2002-03 and far below the highs of 2000 and 2007. Furthermore, I hope you now believe that there’s about a 70% probability that stocks move in sync with the market. If the market trends up, stocks you own will also likely move up; the only thing you don’t know is whether it will be a greater or lesser percentage move. Conversely, if the market trends down, it’s nearly impossible to find a stock that moves against that decline. That’s why you don’t have to be a genius to make money in up markets and, in down markets - well, you’ve heard the saying, “the winner is the one who loses the least.”
I think the past 24 months has proven that diversification is a false promise. It didn’t matter whether you were diversified across industries, across growth or value, across US and international stocks - the only thing that could have protected your portfolio was moving into cash.So what should your portfolio strategy be in any market, especially those that are “trendless” corrections? Mine, in a nutshell, is:
1. Measure the portfolio’s performance relative to a benchmark (mine is the S&P 500 (^GSPC: 979.62 -2.56 -0.26%) but any will do so long as it’s applied consistently) every day and keep an on-going, graphic record of that daily performance (mine goes back to 2002 relative to the S&P 500).
2. It’s more important to decide how much I want to put at risk (100%, 60%, 35% or 0% invested in stocks) than how many and which specific stocks the money is in.
3. When the market is trending up, aim to have as much of the money invested in stocks having a high volatility. In that sense, it more important to have 40% invested in stocks that will likely appreciate twice as fast as the market than it is to have 80% invested in stocks that appreciate less than the market.
4. When the market is trending down, take steps to reduce risk and exposure by:
* Selling portions of the positions that have had the largest percentage gains (selling the whole position might cause you to lose track of some potential long-term “triple baggers”)
* Sell recent additions; in all likelihood there won’t be any opportunity cost in doing so.
* Hedge the remaining exposure by purchasing either puts on the SPY or purchasing a short Index ETF’s (if your portfolio moves the same percentage as the S&P, each $1 in a double short will hedge $2 of the portfolio).
* Things are different today from they’ve ever been with the introduction of nearly half as many ETFs and ADR’s as there are domestic stocks. When appropriate, diversify the exposure by shifting portions into commodity, foreign exchange, foreign market and debt ETFs (both long and short).
I have some great stocks right now, many of which I’ve listed here and some that I haven’t shared with you yet. As a matter of fact, they all have or are on the verge of having broken out of reversal patterns or crossing above some significant resistance (either trendline or moving average). But in what I believe will be a frustrating market for the next several weeks, you earn no points and clearly will have a hard time making any money by trying to find stocks that go up as the market moves aimlessly or actually declines. You only continue to add to the performance relative to your benchmark by reducing your risk exposure.
I’ve written about the “traders’ remorse” correction I see coming over the balance of the summer and I’ve decided to act in response to that belief on my own portfolio. I don’t invest in stocks; I put money at risk to earn a return. I don’t get married to my positions because there’s no way to tell which stocks and which industries will lead when the correction ends. It’s been at around 65% invested and I look forward to the day soon when I will feel comfortable enough to be “all-in”. But, given that potential market correction, I’ve started employing some of the strategies described above.One final point: Tax considerations is always given as an arguments against employing market timing strategies. “You want to hold your stocks so you can get long-term capital gains treatment, don’t you?” Well, not really, because most investors now have a large percentage of their invested money in tax deferred retirement accounts where the only consideration is growing and preserving the money; holding period is irrelevant.
Position Sizing: How To Limit Risk & Maximize Gains
By Investment U on July 29, 2009
It’s amazing how some of the basic investment strategies - like position sizing - that underpin our philosophy here at Investment U and The Oxford Club, can overlap into everyday life, so to speak.One Saturday, years ago, some friends and I went looking for a fun day out and found ourselves at the horse track. Among our group was a track first-timer, hell bent on maximizing his winnings. He laid a big bet on a 20-1 long shot. And when the horse hit the wire dead last, he’d officially been indoctrinated in horse racing and true speculation.
Forget making money, he’d managed only to maximize his loss.
Ever the competitor, he bet on two more races, wagering on big long shots in each. And in about as much time as it took us to park the car, he was wiped out. While the rest of us, only betting $10 or $20 a race, still had hours of fun ahead.That was seven years ago. And, to date, my friend still hasn’t found the guts to make his horseracing comeback. It’s just another instance where fortunes could have changed, for the better, using position sizing - the most underappreciated decision in investing.
Unfortunately, thousands of investors make the same mistake each and every day.
Here’s how you can avoid treating your investments like random horses and a few rules on how to use position sizing to be sure your money will be around for the long term.
How Position Sizing Works
To illustrate how important position sizing is, let’s look to trading guru and Oxford Club friend, Van K. Tharp. In his book Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom, he develops a trading model and then tests it in five different ways, changing nothing each time but the position-sizing strategy.Based on an initial investment of $1 million, the worst of the five scenarios returned $32,567 in a year. The best returned $2,109,266 - an incredible difference, based solely on position sizing!To be fair, Van K. Tharp specializes in short-term trading. So we ought to show how to apply this strategy to our longer-term approach.
Let’s use an extreme example to demonstrate how position sizing relates directly to risk…
* Say an “Average Joe” investor has a starting portfolio of $10,000. And he’s extremely aggressive, putting 50% of his portfolio’s net worth into a single stock. When he sells it (whether for a gain or loss), he again puts half of his portfolio’s worth into his latest stock. And he does this each time, in effect, owning only one stock at a time.
* Now, let’s say his investment strategy performs well, and every position earns 50% that year. Under such premises, after selling all five positions, his portfolio would have swelled to $30,518.
* However, if his strategy had not performed well, and each position fell by 30%, he’d be left with less than $6,000. That’s a high-risk/high-reward approach, for sure.
* Compare that to investor No. 2, who takes a much more conservative approach. He puts 1% of his portfolio into each recommendation. If he encounters precisely the same bad year and each position falls, he’ll still have $9,900 - only taking a nominal loss. However, if he experiences the same success as our first “Joe,” the most he stands to profit is $253 - hardly worth the time of trading.
Position Sizing Strategies & General Rules of Thumb
Of course, a real investor would fall somewhere between the two extremes when following a position sizing strategy.
Here’s a general rule of thumb:
* Limit your investment in any particular stock to 4% of your equity portfolio’s net worth.
* If you want to err on the side of caution, invest less. If your tendency is toward being aggressive, invest more. But not too much more.
* You should also consider the type of stock you’re investing in. For example, you might feel more comfortable having a larger weight in a blue-chip stock.
Over at The White Cap Report, we isolate smaller, speculative companies with breakthrough products. As such, we don’t recommend putting more than 1% in any single stock.Remember that the stock market, historically speaking, favors the investor. (Conversely, horseracing is rigged in the house’s favor. The track skims enough off the top of each race that it always wins.) Watching your position size will ensure that you’re around long enough to reap the rewards.
It’s amazing how some of the basic investment strategies - like position sizing - that underpin our philosophy here at Investment U and The Oxford Club, can overlap into everyday life, so to speak.One Saturday, years ago, some friends and I went looking for a fun day out and found ourselves at the horse track. Among our group was a track first-timer, hell bent on maximizing his winnings. He laid a big bet on a 20-1 long shot. And when the horse hit the wire dead last, he’d officially been indoctrinated in horse racing and true speculation.
Forget making money, he’d managed only to maximize his loss.
Ever the competitor, he bet on two more races, wagering on big long shots in each. And in about as much time as it took us to park the car, he was wiped out. While the rest of us, only betting $10 or $20 a race, still had hours of fun ahead.That was seven years ago. And, to date, my friend still hasn’t found the guts to make his horseracing comeback. It’s just another instance where fortunes could have changed, for the better, using position sizing - the most underappreciated decision in investing.
Unfortunately, thousands of investors make the same mistake each and every day.
Here’s how you can avoid treating your investments like random horses and a few rules on how to use position sizing to be sure your money will be around for the long term.
How Position Sizing Works
To illustrate how important position sizing is, let’s look to trading guru and Oxford Club friend, Van K. Tharp. In his book Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom, he develops a trading model and then tests it in five different ways, changing nothing each time but the position-sizing strategy.Based on an initial investment of $1 million, the worst of the five scenarios returned $32,567 in a year. The best returned $2,109,266 - an incredible difference, based solely on position sizing!To be fair, Van K. Tharp specializes in short-term trading. So we ought to show how to apply this strategy to our longer-term approach.
Let’s use an extreme example to demonstrate how position sizing relates directly to risk…
* Say an “Average Joe” investor has a starting portfolio of $10,000. And he’s extremely aggressive, putting 50% of his portfolio’s net worth into a single stock. When he sells it (whether for a gain or loss), he again puts half of his portfolio’s worth into his latest stock. And he does this each time, in effect, owning only one stock at a time.
* Now, let’s say his investment strategy performs well, and every position earns 50% that year. Under such premises, after selling all five positions, his portfolio would have swelled to $30,518.
* However, if his strategy had not performed well, and each position fell by 30%, he’d be left with less than $6,000. That’s a high-risk/high-reward approach, for sure.
* Compare that to investor No. 2, who takes a much more conservative approach. He puts 1% of his portfolio into each recommendation. If he encounters precisely the same bad year and each position falls, he’ll still have $9,900 - only taking a nominal loss. However, if he experiences the same success as our first “Joe,” the most he stands to profit is $253 - hardly worth the time of trading.
Position Sizing Strategies & General Rules of Thumb
Of course, a real investor would fall somewhere between the two extremes when following a position sizing strategy.
Here’s a general rule of thumb:
* Limit your investment in any particular stock to 4% of your equity portfolio’s net worth.
* If you want to err on the side of caution, invest less. If your tendency is toward being aggressive, invest more. But not too much more.
* You should also consider the type of stock you’re investing in. For example, you might feel more comfortable having a larger weight in a blue-chip stock.
Over at The White Cap Report, we isolate smaller, speculative companies with breakthrough products. As such, we don’t recommend putting more than 1% in any single stock.Remember that the stock market, historically speaking, favors the investor. (Conversely, horseracing is rigged in the house’s favor. The track skims enough off the top of each race that it always wins.) Watching your position size will ensure that you’re around long enough to reap the rewards.
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
IHSG/Forex/Stodex Asia: Potensi Penurunan Dukung Strategi Buy on Weakness
IHSG Outlook
Ind P/E (x)
EPS
Y/Y Y/Y Suku Bunga* Inflasi*
Y/Y GDP*
Y/Y
IHSG 14.0 8% -0.37% 6.75% 3.65% 4.4%
STI 19.8 16% -14.7% 0.69% -0.70% -10.1%
KLCI 13.8 10% +1.3% 2.0% 3.00% -6.2%
SET 12.7 4% -11.7% 1.25% -3.30% -7.10%
SSE 41.2 36% +16% 5.31% -1.40% 7.9%
N225 45.1 -1% -26.9% 0.10% -0.10% -9.7%
HSI 24.8 19% -12.5% 0.50% 0.60% -7.80%
DJIA 16.2 3% -18.8% 0.25% -1.4% -2.5%
* Negara Bersangkutan
IHSG akan mendapatkan kesulitan untuk menembus level 2,256 (pivot) dan kondisi teknikal yang overbought, kenaikan harga komoditi saat ini dapat mendorong spekulasi kenaikan inflasi yang dapat menghambat laju penurunan suku bunga BI di bulan mendatang. Faktor indeks saham regional dan S&P 500 AS overbought dan valuasi relatif mahal (PER MSCI Asia Pasific 24.5x; PER S&P500 16.2x), menjelang data pertumbuhan ekonomi (GDP) triwulan 2 AS (perkiraan: -1.5% q/q dari -5.5% di Q1 2009) hari Jumat dan GDP Q2 Indonesia (perkiraan: 3.7% y/y) di pekan depan, dapat menahan laju penguatan IHSG dan global yang masih berada dalam trend bullish jangka pendek. Meski IHSG masih di support oleh sentimen positif dari pernyataan Wakil Presiden terpilih Boediono bahwa Indonesia akan mengumumkan insentif untuk mengenjot investasi, memperbaiki infrastruktur dan meningkatkan jaringan keamanan sosial dalam 100 hari setelah menduduki jabatan Wapres, diikuti isu positif dari pembagian dividen, aksi korporasi dan hasil lapkeu semester 1 2009 (BUMI, KLBF, PTBA, SMGR, BDMN, BBNI, BBRI, SGROI), investor asing mencatat net buy 6 hari berturut-turut, rupiah melanjutkan penguatan ke level terendah sejak 5 Juni 2009 (penutupan Rp 9,935), seharusnya mendorong strategi Buy on Weakness pekan ini.
Stock Picks: Average last 5 week +37.51%. Target 10-20%, Risk < -10%.
Buy: BUMI, ANTM ,INCO, TINS, WIKA, BMRI, BBKP, PGAS, MEDC, META, INKP, KIJA
Stock Picks:
BBKP Hold target Rp 575
TURI Hold target Rp 1,950
Global Outlook
Indeks saham regional Asia dan Wall Street kembali mendapatkan sentimen negatif dari lebih rendah dari perkiraan data Consumer Confidence AS bulan Juli (46.6 dari 49.3 di Juni; kekhawatiran terhadap tingkat pengangguran), rilisan earning di AS yang mengecewakan, seperti Office Depot Inc, Coach, Deutsche Bank yang melaporkan kerugian finansial sebesar 1 miliar euro, diikuti penurunan harga komoditi (harga minyak capai terendah $ 66.48/barel, logam anjlok) dan Treasury Notes 2-tahun AS merosot. Meski laporan Case-Shiller Home Prices di 20 kota metropolitan AS yang memberikan signal pasar perumahan stabil (-17.1% y/y), aksi merger dan akuisisi Sprint Nextel Corp terhadap Virgin Mobile USA Inc dan IBM mengakuisisi SPSS, 75% emiten di AS telah melaporkan hasil earnings lebih baik dari perkiraan analis, diikuti pernyataan bank sentral Australia yang memprediksi ekonomi akan rebound lebih cepat dari perkiraan sebelumnya, seharusnya dapat menopang kinerja indeks saham global hingga akhir pekan ini sebelum rilisan data GDP Q2 AS.
Technical Analysis:
IHSG kembali menunjukkan signal bullish continuation dari pola candle white opening marubozu, didukung oleh pola uptrend channel dalam ascending channel, yang seharusnya mampu mempertahankan trend bullish jangka pendek, serta indikator ADX trending up, MACD dan stochastic bullish, seharusnya membatasi setiap potensi penurunan hingga hari ini. Target IHSG masih di 2,256 (pivot)/2,300 (upper channel) selama tidak ditutup dibawah trendline support 2,178. Hitungan Elliot Wave menunjukkan proses wave minor iii (perkiraan peak di 2,256) formasi i-v dalam impulse wave 5 - siklus subwave intermediate 4 / B.
Resistance: 2305.19/2285.47/2265.75/2251.42. PP 2226.31
Support : 2219.15/2199.43/2186.87/2167.15
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2200 - 2,265)
Technical Analysis
EUR-USD
(+140p) Euro berpotensi menguat berkat pola channel dan pola candle tweezer top menunjukkan indikasi bullish continuation terbatas, didukung oleh indikator ADX naik, stochastic crossing up dan MACD bullish, seharusnya masih mendukung perkiraan kenaikan hari ini. Support berada di 1.4071 (20-day MA)/1.4143 (lower channel), Resistance berada di 1.4335/1.4300. Euro berada wave proses iii dalam wave 3 zig zag, untuk target $ 1.4330, selama tidak mencapai dibawah 1.4020. Hold Buy 1.4150 & buy 1.4070 target 1.4270, sell break 1.4000 target 1.3880 stop 60p, sell 1.4270 & 1.4330 target 1.4150 buy break 1.4350 target 1.45.
USD-JPY
(-50p) USDJPY masih berada dalam pola bearish uptrend channel di daily chart, meski kenaikan teratas di upper channel 95.31, bilamana ditutup diatas level tersebut akan memutarbalikan trend menjadi netral target 95.85/ (61.8 FE)/96.70. Indikator ADX rebound, stochastic crossup, MACD bearish, seharusnya mendukung peluang kenaikan terbatas selama gagal ditutup diatas 95.30. Resistance berada di 95.60, support di 93.70. Buy 94.00 target 95.50 stop 100p. Sell 95.60 target 93.00. buy 93.50 & Buy 92.60 stop 89.80 target 95.60. Sell 96.70 target 95.00.
GBP-USD
(+150p) GBP masih berada dalam uptrend channel dalam pola ascening triangle, pola congestion, diikuti indikator ADX menurun, stochastic crossing up dan MACD berada di teritorial bullish, mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas selama tidak ditutup dibawah 1.6325 (lower channel). Buy 1.6380 target 1.6550. sell 1.6570 target 1.6320, buy 1.6100, Sell 1.6660 target 1.6350. Sell break 1.6260 target 1.6100 stop 100p. Buy break 1.6675 target 1.6840.
AUD-USD
(-50-50p) AUD berada dalam pola uptrend channel minor dalam downtrend channel, meski pola congestion menunjukkan potensi technical rebound terbatas, diikuti ADX rebound, stochastic crossup, MACD masih bullish, mendukung potensi kenaikan 0.8350, selama di bawah 0.7865. Resistance di 0.8258, support di 0.8000. Buy 0.7950 & buy 7870 target 0.8100, sell 0.8300 target 0.8000 & sell 0.8350 stop 0.8400. sell break 0.8090 target 0.7950.
Analisa Teknikal
Nikkei Futures Kontrak September (SSIU9)
Di chart daily, momentum uptrend masih berlanjut setelah indeks ditutup diatas trendline 9959 dan indeks berada dalam uptrend channel, kendati pola candle menunjukkan shooting star (indikasi bearish reversal). Sementara sejumlah indikator masih mendukung potensi kenaikan, ADX trending up, stochastic dan MACD bullish, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas. Resistance di 10195 (upper channel)/10443). Support 9945 (former resitance)/9729 (61.8% FR). Perkiraan range hari ini 9900-10200. Rekomendasi Sell 10185 & 10400 target 9700 stp 100p. Buy 9900 target 10200 stop 100p, Buy 9740 target 10000 stop 50p, sell break 9830 target 9500. Chart SSIU9 4-jam
Kospi Futures Kontrak September (KSU9)
Dalam chart daily, indeks masih berada dalam pola uptrend channel dan menembus trendline dalam pola broadening bullish, didukung candle long bullish candle. Kondisi stochastic overbought, MACD bullish dan ADX trending up, seharusnya masih mendukung potensi kenaikan. Resistance berada di 199.30/200.75/202.50. Support di 197.30/195.80. Rekomendasi Sell break 197.00 & 193.00 target 190.00 stop 100p, buy 190.00 target 195.00, buy 185.50 target 183.00 stop 100p. Sell 200.70 & 202.50 target 195.00 stop 100p Chart KSU9 Daily
Hang Seng Futures Kontrak Juli (HSIN9)
Dalam chart daily, indeks berada dalam pola uptrend channel dalam formasi bullish broadening , diidukung pola candle long bullish candle, ADX meningkat, stochastic crossup, MACD bullish seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan. Resistance di 20660/20867 (161.8 FR). Support 20250/20055. Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan wave v extended dalam subwave motive (3) cycle B. Rekomendasi : Sell break 20050 target 19760 (or closing) stop 100 p. Buy 20250 target 20600. Buy 19.760 target 19500. sell break 19550 target 19250. buy break 20950 target 21500 stop 100p, sell 20750 & 20860 target 20250 (+140+100p) Chart HSIN9 Daily
www.strategydesk.co.id
www.universalbroker.co.id (Code TF)
www.harumdanaberjangka.co.id
Ind P/E (x)
EPS
Y/Y Y/Y Suku Bunga* Inflasi*
Y/Y GDP*
Y/Y
IHSG 14.0 8% -0.37% 6.75% 3.65% 4.4%
STI 19.8 16% -14.7% 0.69% -0.70% -10.1%
KLCI 13.8 10% +1.3% 2.0% 3.00% -6.2%
SET 12.7 4% -11.7% 1.25% -3.30% -7.10%
SSE 41.2 36% +16% 5.31% -1.40% 7.9%
N225 45.1 -1% -26.9% 0.10% -0.10% -9.7%
HSI 24.8 19% -12.5% 0.50% 0.60% -7.80%
DJIA 16.2 3% -18.8% 0.25% -1.4% -2.5%
* Negara Bersangkutan
IHSG akan mendapatkan kesulitan untuk menembus level 2,256 (pivot) dan kondisi teknikal yang overbought, kenaikan harga komoditi saat ini dapat mendorong spekulasi kenaikan inflasi yang dapat menghambat laju penurunan suku bunga BI di bulan mendatang. Faktor indeks saham regional dan S&P 500 AS overbought dan valuasi relatif mahal (PER MSCI Asia Pasific 24.5x; PER S&P500 16.2x), menjelang data pertumbuhan ekonomi (GDP) triwulan 2 AS (perkiraan: -1.5% q/q dari -5.5% di Q1 2009) hari Jumat dan GDP Q2 Indonesia (perkiraan: 3.7% y/y) di pekan depan, dapat menahan laju penguatan IHSG dan global yang masih berada dalam trend bullish jangka pendek. Meski IHSG masih di support oleh sentimen positif dari pernyataan Wakil Presiden terpilih Boediono bahwa Indonesia akan mengumumkan insentif untuk mengenjot investasi, memperbaiki infrastruktur dan meningkatkan jaringan keamanan sosial dalam 100 hari setelah menduduki jabatan Wapres, diikuti isu positif dari pembagian dividen, aksi korporasi dan hasil lapkeu semester 1 2009 (BUMI, KLBF, PTBA, SMGR, BDMN, BBNI, BBRI, SGROI), investor asing mencatat net buy 6 hari berturut-turut, rupiah melanjutkan penguatan ke level terendah sejak 5 Juni 2009 (penutupan Rp 9,935), seharusnya mendorong strategi Buy on Weakness pekan ini.
Stock Picks: Average last 5 week +37.51%. Target 10-20%, Risk < -10%.
Buy: BUMI, ANTM ,INCO, TINS, WIKA, BMRI, BBKP, PGAS, MEDC, META, INKP, KIJA
Stock Picks:
BBKP Hold target Rp 575
TURI Hold target Rp 1,950
Global Outlook
Indeks saham regional Asia dan Wall Street kembali mendapatkan sentimen negatif dari lebih rendah dari perkiraan data Consumer Confidence AS bulan Juli (46.6 dari 49.3 di Juni; kekhawatiran terhadap tingkat pengangguran), rilisan earning di AS yang mengecewakan, seperti Office Depot Inc, Coach, Deutsche Bank yang melaporkan kerugian finansial sebesar 1 miliar euro, diikuti penurunan harga komoditi (harga minyak capai terendah $ 66.48/barel, logam anjlok) dan Treasury Notes 2-tahun AS merosot. Meski laporan Case-Shiller Home Prices di 20 kota metropolitan AS yang memberikan signal pasar perumahan stabil (-17.1% y/y), aksi merger dan akuisisi Sprint Nextel Corp terhadap Virgin Mobile USA Inc dan IBM mengakuisisi SPSS, 75% emiten di AS telah melaporkan hasil earnings lebih baik dari perkiraan analis, diikuti pernyataan bank sentral Australia yang memprediksi ekonomi akan rebound lebih cepat dari perkiraan sebelumnya, seharusnya dapat menopang kinerja indeks saham global hingga akhir pekan ini sebelum rilisan data GDP Q2 AS.
Technical Analysis:
IHSG kembali menunjukkan signal bullish continuation dari pola candle white opening marubozu, didukung oleh pola uptrend channel dalam ascending channel, yang seharusnya mampu mempertahankan trend bullish jangka pendek, serta indikator ADX trending up, MACD dan stochastic bullish, seharusnya membatasi setiap potensi penurunan hingga hari ini. Target IHSG masih di 2,256 (pivot)/2,300 (upper channel) selama tidak ditutup dibawah trendline support 2,178. Hitungan Elliot Wave menunjukkan proses wave minor iii (perkiraan peak di 2,256) formasi i-v dalam impulse wave 5 - siklus subwave intermediate 4 / B.
Resistance: 2305.19/2285.47/2265.75/2251.42. PP 2226.31
Support : 2219.15/2199.43/2186.87/2167.15
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2200 - 2,265)
Technical Analysis
EUR-USD
(+140p) Euro berpotensi menguat berkat pola channel dan pola candle tweezer top menunjukkan indikasi bullish continuation terbatas, didukung oleh indikator ADX naik, stochastic crossing up dan MACD bullish, seharusnya masih mendukung perkiraan kenaikan hari ini. Support berada di 1.4071 (20-day MA)/1.4143 (lower channel), Resistance berada di 1.4335/1.4300. Euro berada wave proses iii dalam wave 3 zig zag, untuk target $ 1.4330, selama tidak mencapai dibawah 1.4020. Hold Buy 1.4150 & buy 1.4070 target 1.4270, sell break 1.4000 target 1.3880 stop 60p, sell 1.4270 & 1.4330 target 1.4150 buy break 1.4350 target 1.45.
USD-JPY
(-50p) USDJPY masih berada dalam pola bearish uptrend channel di daily chart, meski kenaikan teratas di upper channel 95.31, bilamana ditutup diatas level tersebut akan memutarbalikan trend menjadi netral target 95.85/ (61.8 FE)/96.70. Indikator ADX rebound, stochastic crossup, MACD bearish, seharusnya mendukung peluang kenaikan terbatas selama gagal ditutup diatas 95.30. Resistance berada di 95.60, support di 93.70. Buy 94.00 target 95.50 stop 100p. Sell 95.60 target 93.00. buy 93.50 & Buy 92.60 stop 89.80 target 95.60. Sell 96.70 target 95.00.
GBP-USD
(+150p) GBP masih berada dalam uptrend channel dalam pola ascening triangle, pola congestion, diikuti indikator ADX menurun, stochastic crossing up dan MACD berada di teritorial bullish, mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas selama tidak ditutup dibawah 1.6325 (lower channel). Buy 1.6380 target 1.6550. sell 1.6570 target 1.6320, buy 1.6100, Sell 1.6660 target 1.6350. Sell break 1.6260 target 1.6100 stop 100p. Buy break 1.6675 target 1.6840.
AUD-USD
(-50-50p) AUD berada dalam pola uptrend channel minor dalam downtrend channel, meski pola congestion menunjukkan potensi technical rebound terbatas, diikuti ADX rebound, stochastic crossup, MACD masih bullish, mendukung potensi kenaikan 0.8350, selama di bawah 0.7865. Resistance di 0.8258, support di 0.8000. Buy 0.7950 & buy 7870 target 0.8100, sell 0.8300 target 0.8000 & sell 0.8350 stop 0.8400. sell break 0.8090 target 0.7950.
Analisa Teknikal
Nikkei Futures Kontrak September (SSIU9)
Di chart daily, momentum uptrend masih berlanjut setelah indeks ditutup diatas trendline 9959 dan indeks berada dalam uptrend channel, kendati pola candle menunjukkan shooting star (indikasi bearish reversal). Sementara sejumlah indikator masih mendukung potensi kenaikan, ADX trending up, stochastic dan MACD bullish, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas. Resistance di 10195 (upper channel)/10443). Support 9945 (former resitance)/9729 (61.8% FR). Perkiraan range hari ini 9900-10200. Rekomendasi Sell 10185 & 10400 target 9700 stp 100p. Buy 9900 target 10200 stop 100p, Buy 9740 target 10000 stop 50p, sell break 9830 target 9500. Chart SSIU9 4-jam
Kospi Futures Kontrak September (KSU9)
Dalam chart daily, indeks masih berada dalam pola uptrend channel dan menembus trendline dalam pola broadening bullish, didukung candle long bullish candle. Kondisi stochastic overbought, MACD bullish dan ADX trending up, seharusnya masih mendukung potensi kenaikan. Resistance berada di 199.30/200.75/202.50. Support di 197.30/195.80. Rekomendasi Sell break 197.00 & 193.00 target 190.00 stop 100p, buy 190.00 target 195.00, buy 185.50 target 183.00 stop 100p. Sell 200.70 & 202.50 target 195.00 stop 100p Chart KSU9 Daily
Hang Seng Futures Kontrak Juli (HSIN9)
Dalam chart daily, indeks berada dalam pola uptrend channel dalam formasi bullish broadening , diidukung pola candle long bullish candle, ADX meningkat, stochastic crossup, MACD bullish seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan. Resistance di 20660/20867 (161.8 FR). Support 20250/20055. Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan wave v extended dalam subwave motive (3) cycle B. Rekomendasi : Sell break 20050 target 19760 (or closing) stop 100 p. Buy 20250 target 20600. Buy 19.760 target 19500. sell break 19550 target 19250. buy break 20950 target 21500 stop 100p, sell 20750 & 20860 target 20250 (+140+100p) Chart HSIN9 Daily
www.strategydesk.co.id
www.universalbroker.co.id (Code TF)
www.harumdanaberjangka.co.id
Analisa Saham Lokal & IHSG 28/07
Rekomendasi di Facebook 28/07(a_zakarias@yahoo.com)
Hold Buy BUMI 2150, KLBF 1190, UNSP 720, BMRI 3675, BBCA 3675, BBNI 1800, ASRI 113, CTRA 800, KIJA 125, ISAT 5,300, ELSA 335, MEDC 3225, INCO 4300, UNTR 11800, INKP 1800, ANTM 2125, HEXA 2575. Target count 7-15%, risk <7%. Diclaimer on. Safe Trading. US Consumer Confidence & Case-Shiller Home Prices, US$ 45 bilion Treasury Notes, 335 earning's stocks in US to be release will surprised the market tonite. Good Luck.
Hold Buy BUMI 2150, KLBF 1190, UNSP 720, BMRI 3675, BBCA 3675, BBNI 1800, ASRI 113, CTRA 800, KIJA 125, ISAT 5,300, ELSA 335, MEDC 3225, INCO 4300, UNTR 11800, INKP 1800, ANTM 2125, HEXA 2575. Target count 7-15%, risk <7%. Diclaimer on. Safe Trading. US Consumer Confidence & Case-Shiller Home Prices, US$ 45 bilion Treasury Notes, 335 earning's stocks in US to be release will surprised the market tonite. Good Luck.
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, an intraday top should be in place at 68.99 and some consolidation would now be seen. But after all, downside is expected to be contained above 63.23 support and bring rally resumption. Above 68.99 will target a retest of 73.38 high but initial resistance will likely be seen there. However, break of 63.23 will argue that rise from 58.32 has completed and will mix up the short term outlook.
In the bigger picture, the stronger then expected rebound from 58.32 and break of 66.25 resistance dampened the bearish view that whole rise from 33.2 has completed at 73.38. Also, considering that crude oil is still trading inside medium term rising channel despite earlier brief break, rise from 33.2 is possibly still in progress. Break of 73.83 high will confirm this case and should target 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next. On the downside, break of 58.32 low is now needed to revive the case that crude oil has topped out.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, an intraday top should be in place at 68.99 and some consolidation would now be seen. But after all, downside is expected to be contained above 63.23 support and bring rally resumption. Above 68.99 will target a retest of 73.38 high but initial resistance will likely be seen there. However, break of 63.23 will argue that rise from 58.32 has completed and will mix up the short term outlook.
In the bigger picture, the stronger then expected rebound from 58.32 and break of 66.25 resistance dampened the bearish view that whole rise from 33.2 has completed at 73.38. Also, considering that crude oil is still trading inside medium term rising channel despite earlier brief break, rise from 33.2 is possibly still in progress. Break of 73.83 high will confirm this case and should target 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next. On the downside, break of 58.32 low is now needed to revive the case that crude oil has topped out.
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Tue Jul 28 09 07:25 ET
Comex Gold (GC)
An intraday high is likely in place at 962.7 with mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and outlook is turned neutral at this moment. Some consolidation could be seen but downside should be contained by 930.7 support and bring another rise. Above 962.7 will indicate rally resumption to retest 992.1 high. However, note that a break of 930.7 will indicate that rebound from 904.8 has completed and will put focus back to this low.
In the bigger picture, the earlier than expected completion of fall from 992.1 suggests that it's part of the consolidation from 1007.7 or a correction to rise from 865. In either case, there are still some possible scenarios that will bring more consolidation below 1007.7. So we'd stay neutral as long as 1007.7 resistance holds and be prepared for another fall before completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, the case of another deep fall to 865 is not likely now. Anyway, break of 992.1 /1007.7 resistance will indicate that whole rise from 681 has resumed for 1033.9 key resistance next.
Comex Gold (GC)
An intraday high is likely in place at 962.7 with mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and outlook is turned neutral at this moment. Some consolidation could be seen but downside should be contained by 930.7 support and bring another rise. Above 962.7 will indicate rally resumption to retest 992.1 high. However, note that a break of 930.7 will indicate that rebound from 904.8 has completed and will put focus back to this low.
In the bigger picture, the earlier than expected completion of fall from 992.1 suggests that it's part of the consolidation from 1007.7 or a correction to rise from 865. In either case, there are still some possible scenarios that will bring more consolidation below 1007.7. So we'd stay neutral as long as 1007.7 resistance holds and be prepared for another fall before completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, the case of another deep fall to 865 is not likely now. Anyway, break of 992.1 /1007.7 resistance will indicate that whole rise from 681 has resumed for 1033.9 key resistance next.
Asia’s Two-Week Equity Rally May Falter: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- A two-week rally has driven Asian equities to levels on relative strength indexes and Bollinger bands that have signaled declines in the past.The MSCI Asia Pacific Index’s 14-day relative strength index, which measures how rapidly prices have risen or fallen, climbed to 73 today, above the 70 threshold some investors use as a signal to sell. The gauge also moved above its upper Bollinger band yesterday, a sign that stocks may be overvalued.An acceleration in China’s economic growth and better-than- expected U.S. earnings have helped drive an 11-day, 12 percent climb in the MSCI Asia Pacific. The winning streak, the longest since January 2004, left companies in the gauge valued at an average 24.5 times estimated net income, the most expensive level since March 31.
“You’d think some sort of pullback is due after the sheer strength of the last couple of weeks,” said Matt Riordan, who helps manage about $3.2 billion at Paradice Investment Management in Sydney. “Earnings have come in ahead of expectations and the economic data is quite reasonable.”The MSCI Asia Pacific Index’s RSI last touched 70 on June 12, which preceded a two-day, 3 percent decline. The RSI level for Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose to 72 yesterday as the gauge closed above 20,000 points for the first time since the September collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. The same measure for South Korea’s Kospi Index climbed to 74.
Bollinger Bands
The MSCI Asia Pacific added 0.3 percent to 109.38 as of 12:06 p.m. in Tokyo, just below the level of 109.8 set by its upper Bollinger band. The index yesterday rose as high as 109.83. The upper and lower Bollinger bands are plotted two standard deviations above and below a 20-day moving average of an index or security.MSCI’s Asian index has climbed 55 percent from a more than five-year low on March 9 on speculation stimulus policies worldwide will revive the global economy.Intel Corp. and Apple Inc. were among U.S. companies that reported better-than-expected results this month. Government figures due July 31 will show the U.S. economy shrank by 1.5 percent in the second quarter, following a 5.5 percent drop in the first three months of 2009, economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted.
“Investor expectations for corporate earnings are running ahead of actual results,” said Masaru Hamasaki, a Tokyo-based senior strategist at Toyota Asset Management Co., which oversees $13 billion. “People are concerned that current share prices are too high.”
“You’d think some sort of pullback is due after the sheer strength of the last couple of weeks,” said Matt Riordan, who helps manage about $3.2 billion at Paradice Investment Management in Sydney. “Earnings have come in ahead of expectations and the economic data is quite reasonable.”The MSCI Asia Pacific Index’s RSI last touched 70 on June 12, which preceded a two-day, 3 percent decline. The RSI level for Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose to 72 yesterday as the gauge closed above 20,000 points for the first time since the September collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. The same measure for South Korea’s Kospi Index climbed to 74.
Bollinger Bands
The MSCI Asia Pacific added 0.3 percent to 109.38 as of 12:06 p.m. in Tokyo, just below the level of 109.8 set by its upper Bollinger band. The index yesterday rose as high as 109.83. The upper and lower Bollinger bands are plotted two standard deviations above and below a 20-day moving average of an index or security.MSCI’s Asian index has climbed 55 percent from a more than five-year low on March 9 on speculation stimulus policies worldwide will revive the global economy.Intel Corp. and Apple Inc. were among U.S. companies that reported better-than-expected results this month. Government figures due July 31 will show the U.S. economy shrank by 1.5 percent in the second quarter, following a 5.5 percent drop in the first three months of 2009, economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted.
“Investor expectations for corporate earnings are running ahead of actual results,” said Masaru Hamasaki, a Tokyo-based senior strategist at Toyota Asset Management Co., which oversees $13 billion. “People are concerned that current share prices are too high.”
Oil Set to Rise to $75 After Filling ‘Gap’: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil will rise toward $75 a barrel after the market filled a price gap that stood as technical resistance for three weeks, according to the head of Schork Group Inc. Oil last week closed a gap between the low of July 2 and the high of July 6 on its way to a 7.1 percent rally, the biggest weekly gain since May. Having broken through resistance, the market’s rebound over the past two weeks can be sustained, said Stephen Schork, president of the Villanova, Pennsylvania- based consultant. He correctly identified the gap July 8. “With last week’s closure of the ‘gap,’ the path to $75 appears wide open,” Schork said in e-mailed comments. “We had our ‘correction’ toward the low $60s/high $50s and the bulls held serve.”
Oil touched $68.69 a barrel yesterday, the highest in more than three weeks, as equity markets rose and the dollar declined. Futures have climbed 53 percent this year on speculation global demand for fuels would recover with the economy. The contract for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange traded at $68.11 a barrel at 8:25 a.m. in Singapore. The market’s current uptrend can be traced back to July 13, when prices dipped to $58.32 a barrel, the lowest in eight weeks. There was pessimism at the time over the outlook for oil demand, after U.S. consumer confidence fell and fuel stockpiles in the country rose.“We are now on the rebound,” Schork said. “The market has a funny way of gravitating toward nice round numbers, like $75.”
If oil stays within its ascending channel on the daily continuation chart, it may approach the June 30 high of $73.38 a barrel by the middle of next week and $75 as early as Aug. 10. Prices last traded at $75 on Oct. 21 last year.“Now that we held support on the way down, it is up to the bears to defend the rebound,” he said. “Quite frankly, we do not think they are up to the task.”
Oil touched $68.69 a barrel yesterday, the highest in more than three weeks, as equity markets rose and the dollar declined. Futures have climbed 53 percent this year on speculation global demand for fuels would recover with the economy. The contract for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange traded at $68.11 a barrel at 8:25 a.m. in Singapore. The market’s current uptrend can be traced back to July 13, when prices dipped to $58.32 a barrel, the lowest in eight weeks. There was pessimism at the time over the outlook for oil demand, after U.S. consumer confidence fell and fuel stockpiles in the country rose.“We are now on the rebound,” Schork said. “The market has a funny way of gravitating toward nice round numbers, like $75.”
If oil stays within its ascending channel on the daily continuation chart, it may approach the June 30 high of $73.38 a barrel by the middle of next week and $75 as early as Aug. 10. Prices last traded at $75 on Oct. 21 last year.“Now that we held support on the way down, it is up to the bears to defend the rebound,” he said. “Quite frankly, we do not think they are up to the task.”
Euro’s Advance Against Dollar May Persist: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The euro’s gains against the dollar may persist, Helaba Landesbank Hessen-Thueringen said, citing technical indicators. The moving average convergence/divergence, or MACD, showed the euro’s rising trend against the dollar is “intact,” Ralf Umlauf, head of floor research at Helaba in Frankfurt, wrote today in a report. The directional movement indicator, or DMI, also signals gains by the common currency, he said.“The MACD is heading higher above its trend line so that’s supportive for the euro,” Umlauf said in an interview. “The DMI, a trend indicator, is also in buy mode.”
The euro rose 0.3 percent to $1.4280 as of 10:14 a.m. in London after climbing to $1.4304, the first time it breached $1.4300 since June 3.For gains to continue in the short term, the euro must “overcome” so-called resistance at $1.4338, reached on June 3, Umlauf said. Resistance is a point where sell orders may be clustered.
The euro rose 0.3 percent to $1.4280 as of 10:14 a.m. in London after climbing to $1.4304, the first time it breached $1.4300 since June 3.For gains to continue in the short term, the euro must “overcome” so-called resistance at $1.4338, reached on June 3, Umlauf said. Resistance is a point where sell orders may be clustered.
Daily Technical Analysis Forex/DJIA/Gold
Daily Forex Technicals | Mizuho bank
EURUSD
Comment: Holding well above a large Ichimoku 'cloud' with moving averages decidedly bullish. If the lagging Span manages to hold above the top of the 'triangle' bullish momentum should increase even further for a test of this year's high at 1.4339. Implied volatility should pick up next where traders and investors should note that current consensus opinion is that the US dollar should strengthen over the coming 12 months.Strategy: Buy at 1.4275, adding to 1.4200; stop below 1.4100. Short term target 1.4300/1.4339, a lot more on a sustained break above 1.4375.
Direction of Trade: → ↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.4240 " 1.43
1.42 1.4339*
1.4165 1.4365*
1.4118* 1.443
1.4095 1.453
GBPUSD
Comment: Cable is inching fractionally higher and bullish momentum should increase if the Lagging Span manages to hold above the upper edge of the 'triangle' formation. The pound is not overbought and several other currencies look similar.Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6550, adding to 1.6450; stop well below 1.6300. First target 1.6600/1.6650 and then this year's high at 1.6745. More later this year.Direction of Trade: →↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.6490 " 1.656
1.6457 1.6587
1.6382 1.6625
1.63 1.6664
1.6187 1.6745
USDJPY
Comment: Stalling against Fibonacci retracement but few clear signs of topping yet. Some stops were triggered on yesterday's blip above last week's high at 95.30. Open interest in the futures market continues to decline and is running at the lowest since 2003.Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 95.15; stop well above 95.40. Add to shorts on a sustained break below 94.40 for 93.25Direction of Trade: →Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
94.59/94.40 " 95.39*
94 95.5
93.85 95.67
93.5 96
93.00* 96.25*
Daily Forex Technicals |
Rupee :Rupee seem to be moving in range-bound fashion for 3-4 days . It needs to break 48.60 to get a confirmation of the uptrend resuming again. Its likely to hover in a range of 48.20-48.40 today. Its important that it should get support from dollar bearishness from overseas pairs and Dollar Index. Please note that there are stiff resistances in BSE and NSE and the current valuations. Mildly Bullish.(USD/INR : 48.25)
Euro :Euro still in the range and unable to break 1.4150 support or 1.43 resistance . Break of either side would determine direction of Euro for the next few days.(Eur/Usd:1.4256) Neutral
Cable : Cable is also stuck in the range of 1.65 to 1.6380 for the last few days. Technically only a break of 1.6550 would again turn the view bullish.(GBP/USD 1.6502) Neutral
Yen : Yen needs to move above 95.27 (55 day EMA) and 95.74 (100 Day EMA) to maintain risk appetite in the market. (USD/JPY 95.09) Slightly Bullish
Aud:Aud has stayed above .8200 for the last few sessions with continuous rise in Commodity prices and precious metals. It has already moved to this year highs. Only a break of .7950 would trigger bearishness in the pair. (AUD/USD -0.8275) Bullish but Overbought.
Gold :Gold is hovering around $ 950 favouring bullishness in the commodity. We prefer no buys for the time being since we still feel its in a consolidation phase and a fall cannot be ruled out. Fresh round of buying would accelarate only once the pair breaks 860 dollars on closing basis.Break of 945 dollars in Gold would make the short term outlook bearish.(Gold- $953.80). Bullish
Dollar Index :Dollar index is still a range bound with slight downward pressure . We strongly feel that a constant hold below 79.35 support will only turn the outlook short term bearish till 77.70 levels. (Dollar Index - 78.62) Slightly Bearish
Daily Forex Technicals |
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 9033.72 and 9005.63(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8988.76, where correction also can be. Then follows 8957.62. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8912.70. Continuation will bring 8881.87.Today's resistance: - 9113.90 and 9150.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 9177.37, where a correction may happen. Then follows 9191.26, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 9219.37. Continuation would bring 9246.50 and 9264.37.
EURUSD
Comment: Holding well above a large Ichimoku 'cloud' with moving averages decidedly bullish. If the lagging Span manages to hold above the top of the 'triangle' bullish momentum should increase even further for a test of this year's high at 1.4339. Implied volatility should pick up next where traders and investors should note that current consensus opinion is that the US dollar should strengthen over the coming 12 months.Strategy: Buy at 1.4275, adding to 1.4200; stop below 1.4100. Short term target 1.4300/1.4339, a lot more on a sustained break above 1.4375.
Direction of Trade: → ↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.4240 " 1.43
1.42 1.4339*
1.4165 1.4365*
1.4118* 1.443
1.4095 1.453
GBPUSD
Comment: Cable is inching fractionally higher and bullish momentum should increase if the Lagging Span manages to hold above the upper edge of the 'triangle' formation. The pound is not overbought and several other currencies look similar.Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6550, adding to 1.6450; stop well below 1.6300. First target 1.6600/1.6650 and then this year's high at 1.6745. More later this year.Direction of Trade: →↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.6490 " 1.656
1.6457 1.6587
1.6382 1.6625
1.63 1.6664
1.6187 1.6745
USDJPY
Comment: Stalling against Fibonacci retracement but few clear signs of topping yet. Some stops were triggered on yesterday's blip above last week's high at 95.30. Open interest in the futures market continues to decline and is running at the lowest since 2003.Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 95.15; stop well above 95.40. Add to shorts on a sustained break below 94.40 for 93.25Direction of Trade: →Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
94.59/94.40 " 95.39*
94 95.5
93.85 95.67
93.5 96
93.00* 96.25*
Daily Forex Technicals |
Rupee :Rupee seem to be moving in range-bound fashion for 3-4 days . It needs to break 48.60 to get a confirmation of the uptrend resuming again. Its likely to hover in a range of 48.20-48.40 today. Its important that it should get support from dollar bearishness from overseas pairs and Dollar Index. Please note that there are stiff resistances in BSE and NSE and the current valuations. Mildly Bullish.(USD/INR : 48.25)
Euro :Euro still in the range and unable to break 1.4150 support or 1.43 resistance . Break of either side would determine direction of Euro for the next few days.(Eur/Usd:1.4256) Neutral
Cable : Cable is also stuck in the range of 1.65 to 1.6380 for the last few days. Technically only a break of 1.6550 would again turn the view bullish.(GBP/USD 1.6502) Neutral
Yen : Yen needs to move above 95.27 (55 day EMA) and 95.74 (100 Day EMA) to maintain risk appetite in the market. (USD/JPY 95.09) Slightly Bullish
Aud:Aud has stayed above .8200 for the last few sessions with continuous rise in Commodity prices and precious metals. It has already moved to this year highs. Only a break of .7950 would trigger bearishness in the pair. (AUD/USD -0.8275) Bullish but Overbought.
Gold :Gold is hovering around $ 950 favouring bullishness in the commodity. We prefer no buys for the time being since we still feel its in a consolidation phase and a fall cannot be ruled out. Fresh round of buying would accelarate only once the pair breaks 860 dollars on closing basis.Break of 945 dollars in Gold would make the short term outlook bearish.(Gold- $953.80). Bullish
Dollar Index :Dollar index is still a range bound with slight downward pressure . We strongly feel that a constant hold below 79.35 support will only turn the outlook short term bearish till 77.70 levels. (Dollar Index - 78.62) Slightly Bearish
Daily Forex Technicals |
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 9033.72 and 9005.63(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8988.76, where correction also can be. Then follows 8957.62. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8912.70. Continuation will bring 8881.87.Today's resistance: - 9113.90 and 9150.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 9177.37, where a correction may happen. Then follows 9191.26, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 9219.37. Continuation would bring 9246.50 and 9264.37.
Why Emerging Market ETFs Are So Popular
By Tom Lydon on July 27, 2009
Disappointed with the Western markets, investors have foregone developed name brands and have been snatching up emerging market investments and exchange traded funds (ETFs) in bulk.Emerging market ETFs have captured almost a third of assets in funds focused on those countries and ETFs have experienced some staggering percentage growth, writes Murray Coleman for IndexUniverse. Research has indicated that while index mutual funds are also on the rise, active mutual funds in the short-term are on the decline or have plateaued.There is a growing shift away from active management toward passive ETFs in the emerging markets, remarks Alexander Redman For IndexUniverse. Since the beginning of 2008, the $365 billion invested globally in emerging market equities has gone from being 16% in ETFs to 30%.
Redman argues that retail investors have become disgruntled with high fees for actively managed portfolios on top of heavy losses over the past year, which have made people turn to emerging market ETFs as a way to invest in a cheap and liquid source of beta without having to study up on individual stocks.It is noted that a majority of emerging market ETFs are aligned along regional or country geographies instead of sectors. Active funds tend to invest by country rather than by sectors and could increase intra-country investment correlations.
* iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM): up 41.8% year-to-date
Disappointed with the Western markets, investors have foregone developed name brands and have been snatching up emerging market investments and exchange traded funds (ETFs) in bulk.Emerging market ETFs have captured almost a third of assets in funds focused on those countries and ETFs have experienced some staggering percentage growth, writes Murray Coleman for IndexUniverse. Research has indicated that while index mutual funds are also on the rise, active mutual funds in the short-term are on the decline or have plateaued.There is a growing shift away from active management toward passive ETFs in the emerging markets, remarks Alexander Redman For IndexUniverse. Since the beginning of 2008, the $365 billion invested globally in emerging market equities has gone from being 16% in ETFs to 30%.
Redman argues that retail investors have become disgruntled with high fees for actively managed portfolios on top of heavy losses over the past year, which have made people turn to emerging market ETFs as a way to invest in a cheap and liquid source of beta without having to study up on individual stocks.It is noted that a majority of emerging market ETFs are aligned along regional or country geographies instead of sectors. Active funds tend to invest by country rather than by sectors and could increase intra-country investment correlations.
* iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM): up 41.8% year-to-date
Intraday Fibonacci Lessons
By Corey Rosenbloom on July 28, 2009
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) gave us a few examples of how to use simple Fibonacci retracements for specific purposes of price targeting and trade entry. Let’s take a look at the chart to see what we can learn.
(Click for Full-Size Image)
The full description and background for this lesson is in today’s “Teaching Moment” from the Idealized Trades Daily Subscription Service, but wanted to hit the highlights here. When price made its initial large downswing from the $98.40 highs to the $97.34 lows, one could have entered long as price began to rise off the lows, breaking above the $97.50 highs off of a positive TICK divergence (not shown here) and doji on the 5-min chart.Now would you set your target? Or what price would you play for? Drawing a specific Fibonacci Retracement grid from the highs to the lows could help answer that question.
First, let me say you would place a stop a slight distance - not too close but not to far - from the $97.34 swing lows.The resulting 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements of the large morning down-swing come in at $97.75, $97.87, and $98.00 respectively - all of which could serve as logical price targets.The 38.2% would be a conservative upside target; the 50.0% would serve as a moderate target, while the 61.8% would serve as an aggressive price target - your risk tolerance and trading tactics would determine what target to play for and how to size your position - that is for another post.
The 61.8% target would serve as a ‘maxmium’ or ‘best case scenario’ target (as observed when putting on the trade).Notice how price retraced (rallied) all the way up to this level, found resistance as expected (blowing through the 38% and 50% retracements with ease… which gave clues that odds shifted further upside to come) and did retrace at the $98.00 zone (which corresponded with “Round-Number” confluence resistance).
Not only was this a trade exit (long) target, but it could have served as a ’short-sale’ entry particularly since we formed an internal TICK divergence and bearish reversal candles (on the 5-min chart) at the $98.00 level.The logic is the same on the second “Blue” Fibonacci grid I’ve drawn - only we’re looking for where the price will likely find support and thus a target (exit) to cover our short sale.
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) gave us a few examples of how to use simple Fibonacci retracements for specific purposes of price targeting and trade entry. Let’s take a look at the chart to see what we can learn.
(Click for Full-Size Image)
The full description and background for this lesson is in today’s “Teaching Moment” from the Idealized Trades Daily Subscription Service, but wanted to hit the highlights here. When price made its initial large downswing from the $98.40 highs to the $97.34 lows, one could have entered long as price began to rise off the lows, breaking above the $97.50 highs off of a positive TICK divergence (not shown here) and doji on the 5-min chart.Now would you set your target? Or what price would you play for? Drawing a specific Fibonacci Retracement grid from the highs to the lows could help answer that question.
First, let me say you would place a stop a slight distance - not too close but not to far - from the $97.34 swing lows.The resulting 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements of the large morning down-swing come in at $97.75, $97.87, and $98.00 respectively - all of which could serve as logical price targets.The 38.2% would be a conservative upside target; the 50.0% would serve as a moderate target, while the 61.8% would serve as an aggressive price target - your risk tolerance and trading tactics would determine what target to play for and how to size your position - that is for another post.
The 61.8% target would serve as a ‘maxmium’ or ‘best case scenario’ target (as observed when putting on the trade).Notice how price retraced (rallied) all the way up to this level, found resistance as expected (blowing through the 38% and 50% retracements with ease… which gave clues that odds shifted further upside to come) and did retrace at the $98.00 zone (which corresponded with “Round-Number” confluence resistance).
Not only was this a trade exit (long) target, but it could have served as a ’short-sale’ entry particularly since we formed an internal TICK divergence and bearish reversal candles (on the 5-min chart) at the $98.00 level.The logic is the same on the second “Blue” Fibonacci grid I’ve drawn - only we’re looking for where the price will likely find support and thus a target (exit) to cover our short sale.
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