Market Minute: May 22, 2009: The next low in gold

Donald W. Dony FCSI, MFTA
As the global equity markets begin their correction down to the early July low, increased risk has returned. This short-term action should be positive for the U.S. Dollar Index. Gold, the most sensitive commodity to the USD, is expected to pull back over the next few weeks with a low developing in mid-June.

Investment approach: Models indicate that gold will retrace part of its recent advance. Investors may wish to wait until the expected trough in mid-June before entering new long positions in gold or gold stocks. Longer term models point to increased upward pressure after the low in June and July. The July target is $1000.

Daily Technical Analysis Forex & Gold

Daily Forex Technicals
EURUSD
Comment: Catching up with what has been happening in some smaller currencies for the last three weeks. FX and some other markets are basically breaking out of large bands that have held since roughly October. Investors should sit up and take note because complacency will be very costly. A weekly close above 1.3700 would add to current strong bullish momentum. Note that above here there are no really strong resistance levels until the 1.4200 area.Strategy: Buy at 1.3915 but only if prepared to add to 1.3750; stop well below 1.3700. Short term target 1.3950, then a lot more with a first measured target at 1.4200 then 1.4550.Direction of Trade: →↗
Chart Levels:Support Resistance
1.3890 " 1.3942/1.3965*
1.383 1.4
1.375 1.406
1.3727 1.4125
1.3700* 1.4200*
GBPUSD
Comment: Massive volume on huge intra-day gyrations where much has been made by the media of S&P's threat it might downgrade UK debt. One wonders whether many care what grade these discredited institutions who happily have been grading toxic debt at AAA for years hands out. Maybe this is a veiled threat on US debt which they dare not whisper. Having met our first upside target and channel resistance around 1.5800 allow for some consolidation so that other currencies can catch up. Strategy: Buy on a dip to 1.5730, adding to 1.5550; stop well below 1.5400. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.5900 for 1.6100/1.6200 short term.Direction of Trade: →↗
Support Resistance
1.5830 " 1.59
1.573 1.6
1.57 1.6100*
1.56 1.6200*
1.5470* 1.64
USDJPY
Comment: The lowest daily close since late February, again adding weight to our view that we have formed an important interim high. Thin markets today through to Tuesday could see moves gather considerable pace. A weekly close below 94.25 should add considerable downside pressure and note that the US dollar is not oversold. Strategy: Sell 94.15 but only if prepared to add to 95.00; stop above 96.25. First target 93.55, then 92.50.Direction of Trade: →Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
93.86 " 94.48
93.55* 95
93.3 95.27
92.50* 96.22
91.55 96.71
Daily Forex Technicals
Rupee: Rupee broke the 47 level in the early trade today poising a 5-month high. Next support for Rupee is traced around 46.60 levels. The strength in the local unit is due to dollar weakness across the board and Dollar Index declining continuosly. Importers can start booking near term contracts below 47.00 while exporters should look for retracements upto 48 to sell. (USD/INR : 47.10). Short term Bullish
% of the fall from 1.6038 to 1.2329). (Eur/Usd:1.3909). Short Term Bullish.
Gold: Gold was lifted to $955 due to the weakness in dollar. We maintain our view for going long at dips as the overall bias for gold is bullish. Bullish(Gold- 951.62).
Dollar Index: DX fell further for the 4th consecutive day to test 80.38 this morning. Our target of 80.20 (as mentioned in our charts) is nearing. The stochastic continues to be flat in the oversold region. (DI- 80.45) ) Bearish
Daily Forex Technicals epulse
EURO
The Euro versus Dollar pair continued to incline after correcting to the downside yesterday to reach the 23.6% as it breached the critical resistance at 1.3805 and near the 1.3950 level which may force the pair back to the downside. We expect the pair to correct to 1.3850 to build a solid base before rebounding back to the upside targeting 1.4100 on the short term as far as 1.3690 remains intact.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3580 and the key resistance at 1.4180. The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets at 1.2120.
Support: 1.3850, 1.3780, 1.3725, 1.3690, 1.3640
Resistance: 1.3950, 1.3990, 1.4055, 1.4100, 1.4180
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.3850 with targets at 1.4040 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.3780
GBP
After correcting to the downside, the Cable rebounded to the upside towards the key resistance for the upside channel to touch it several times as seen in the above image where we expect to witness a slight downside correction on the intraday basis to reach 1.5760 and 1.5680 at most to gather bullish momentum before inclining on the short term to target 1.6300. The 1.5550 support level must remain intact for the incline to continue for today. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.5550 and the key resistance at 1.6200. The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4840 remains intact with targets at 1.6600
Support: 1.5760, 1.5680, 1.5645, 1.5550, 1.5490
Resistance: 1.5880, 1.5925, 1.6005, 1.6070, 1.6100
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.5760 with targets at 1.5880 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.5680
JPY
The bearish pressure on the pair took the USD/JPY to the downside as expected to near our initial target at 93.50 where we still hold our outlook for further declines towards 92.40 on the intraday basis. We may witness high volatility in an attempt to gather momentum to decline and breach the minor support (near 94.00) and may build a solid base at 94.55 before reversing to the downside. The short term downside trend remains as far as 97.00 is intact. The trading range for today is among the key support at 91.90 and the key resistance at 97.00. The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 is intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60
Support: 93.95, 93.50, 92.95, 92.40, 91.90
Resistance: 94.55, 95.25, 95.75, 96.45, 97.00
Recommendation: According to our analysis sell th epair below 94.55 with taregts at 93.50 and stop loss with four hour closing above 95.25
CHF
The Dollar versus Swissy fluctuated heavily around the 1.0980 pivotal support as it breached it to the downside nearing our second target at 1.0880. Momentum indicators show the pair being oversold which may result in an upside correction towards 1.0980 to retest the broken trend before reversing back to the downside. We still hold our outlook for further declines towards 1.0845 and 1.0745 before heading towards 1.0570 on the short term. This decline remains as far as 1.1125 is intact.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0745 and the key resistance at 1.1445
The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 is intact with targets at 1.2245
Support: 1.0880, 1.0845, 1.0795, 1.0745, 1.0710
Resistance: 1.0980, 1.1035, 1.1075, 1.1125, 1.1165
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.0980 with targets at 1.0845 and stop loss with four hour closing aboce 1.1125

Isu Rating Hutang AS = Stealth USD Devaluation???

USD Index 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low EUR-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
80.33 (+69) 89.62 (04/03) 79.63 (02/01) 1.3919 1.4055 (02/01) 1.2459 (04/03)

Dolar AS melemah ke level terendah 4-bulan terhadap euro dan yen berkat spekulasi kredibilitas pemerintah AS melemah, menurunkan permintaan untuk mata uang dolr AS. Dolar berpotensi mengalami penurunan mingguan terbesar dalam 2 bulan terhadap euro setelah Standard & Poors menurunkan pandangan rating hutang AAA Inggris menjadi “negatif” dari “stabil” meningkatkan kekhawatiran rating hutang mungkin akan dialami AS. Dolar Selandia Baru menguat ke level tertinggi 7-bulan. Dolar melemah terhadap 14 dari 16 mata uang paling banyak di perdagangkan setelah yield Treasury kemarin mengalami kenaikan terbesar dalam 2 minggu di tengah kekhawatiran pemerintah tidak akan mampu membiayai belanja fiskalnya. Dolar juga melemah setelah Bill Gross, co-chief investment officer Pacific Investment Management, mengatakan AS akan “eventually” kehilangan rating AAA. Kebangkrutan BankUnited Financial Corp ikut menambah kekhawatiran terhadap sistem perbankan di AS masih tetap lemah. Menurut Goldman Sachs, pemerintah AS akan menjual surat hutang senilai rekor $ 3.25 triliun di tahun fiskal yang berakhir 30 September. Treasury AS melaporkan defisit anggaran pertama di bulan April dalam 26 tahun terakhir, mencatat penurunan $ 20.9 miliar. Data ekonomi menunjukkan mix, continued Jobless claims AS mencapai rekor tertinggi, Phily Fed dan Leading Indicator lebih baik dari perkiraan. Meski potensi penurunan dolar terbatas setelah Treasury Geithner mencounter kekhawatiran tersebut.

Euro kembali menunjukkan keperkasaannya terhadap dolar hingga sesi perdagangan Asia hari ini, dimana kekhawatiran penurunan rating hutang AS setelah Standard & Poors menurunkan rating hutang AAA Inggris untuk pertama kali dari stabil menjadi netral. Kekhawatiran terhadap penurunan rating hutang AS didukung oleh komentar CO-CEO Pimco AS Bill Gross yang mengatakan AS akan “eventuallY” kehilangan rating AAA. Isu kebangkrutan bank di AS (BankUnited Financial Corp), ikut membebani kinerja dolar AS semalam. Meski potensi penguatan euro hari ini terbatas, setelah Treasury Secretary Geithner mengatakan pemerintah akan menurunkan jumlah hutang pemerintah mulai tahun depan. Penguatan euro juga didukung oleh kenaikan di data PMI Jerman bulan Mei, meningkat ke 39.1 dan PMI Services menjadi 46.0, menunjukkan reboundnya aktifitas ekonomi. Euro diperkirakan masih dapat melanjutkan kenaikan terhadap dolar dan yen, jika spekulasi investor masih melanjutkan pemburuan aset yang beresiko dimana dapat menguatkan harga komoditi dan harga saham dunia lebih lanjut. Di tengah minimnya rilisan data ekonomi dari AS dan Euro, pasar akan mengamati pernyataan dari Chairman Fed Bernanke, dimana dapat meredakan kekhawatiran terhadap isu penurunan rating hutang AS, dapat memicu aksi profit-taking posisi short euro dolar.

USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
94.09 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.5844 1.5890 (21/05) 1.3502 (23/01)

Yen menguat terhadap dolar di sesi Asia hari ini, sempat menguat ke level tertinggi Y 93.87, berkat kekhawatiran terhadap AS dapat kehilangan rating hutang AAA setelah Standard & Poors menurunkan rating hutang AAA Inggris menjadi netral dari stabil, yang menurunkan kredibilitas pemerintah AS untuk membayar hutang. Sejumlah isu negatif yang didapat AS meningkat seperti Mantan Chairman Fed Greenspan yang memicu kekhawatiran terhadap sektor perumahan dan perbankan AS, data continued jobless claims AS mencapai rekor tertinggi di pekan lalu, penguatan harga komoditi dan laporan BankUnited Financial Corp AS, membebani kinerja dolar yang telah terpukul oleh hilangnya status safe haven setelah investor global memburu aset yang beresiko seperti saham dan komoditi. yen juga menguat setelah Menteri Keuangan Jepang Kauro Yosano mengatakan pemerintah Jepang tidak berencana untuk melakukan intervensi di pasar uang. Laporan BOJ menaikkan pandanan ekonomi untuk pertama kali dalam 3 tahun terakhir dan mempertahankan suku bunga 0.1%, seharusnya masih menopang kinerja yen sebelum testimony Fed Bernanke malam ini.

Pound sterling mengalami penguatan tajam terhadap dolar kemarin hingga sesi perdagangan Asia hari ini, karena investor khawatir mengenai kredibilitas pemerintah AS untuk membayar hutang yang akan mendorong penurunan rating hutang AAA milk AS, setelah Standard & Poors kemarin menurunkan rating hutang AA Inggris untuk pertama kali dalam sejarah, menjadi netral dari stabil, dimana sempat memicu aksi panik penjualan pound sterling terhadap euro, dolar, yen di sesi siang pasar London, meski imbas negatif berhasil dicounter oleh serangkaian isu negatif dari AS. Komentar negatif dari mantan Fed Alan Greenspan yang memicu kekhawatiran krisis finansial global belum berakhir, data continued jobless claims AS pekan lalu meningkat ke rekor tertinggi, komentar negatif dari CO-CEO PIMCO Bill Gross mengenai potensi penurunan rating kredit AS dan laporan kebangkrutan BankUnited Financial Corp AS. Tetapi spekulasi data GDP Q1 Inggris yang sebelumnya tercatat -1.9%, akan kembali membebani pound jika data tercatat lebih buruk dari perkiraan.

USD-CHF 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
1.0909 1.1965 (12/03) 1.0617 (02/01) 0.7782 0.7804 (20/05) 0.6248 (02/02)

Swiss franc menunjukkan keperkasaannya terhadap dolar hingga sesi perdagangan Asia hari ini, dimana kekhawatiran penurunan rating hutang AS setelah Standard & Poors menurunkan rating hutang AAA Inggris untuk pertama kali dari stabil menjadi netral. Serangkaian isu negatif dari AS, diantaranya komentar negatif dari mantan Fed Alan Greenspan yang memicu kekhawatiran krisis finansial global belum berakhir, data continued jobless claims AS pekan lalu meningkat ke rekor tertinggi, komentar negatif dari CO-CEO PIMCO Bill Gross mengenai potensi penurunan rating kredit AS dan laporan kebangkrutan BankUnited Financial Corp AS, masih menopang kinerja Swiss franc terhadap dolar AS. Meski Treasury Secretary AS Timothy Geithner berkomitmen untuk memangkas defisit di tengah meningkatnya kekhawatiran terhadap rating hutang AAA milk AS. Meski potensi penguatan CHF terbatas menjelang testimony Fed Bernanke nanti malam.

Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) menguat ke level tertinggi 7-bulan karena investor menjual dolar AS di tengah kekhawatiran terhadap kredibilitas AS memburuk. Aussie berpotensi mengalami kenaikan untuk pekan ke-11 dalam 12 pekan terakhir karena saham Asia Pasifik berpotensi mengalami kenaikan untuk bulan ke-3. Dolar AS melemah ke level terendah 4-pekan terhadap euro dan ke level terendah 9-pekan terhadap yen setelah Menteri Keuangan Jepang mengatakan pemerintah tidak berencana untuk melakukan intervensi di pasar mata uang. Aussie di sesi Asia menguat ke level tertinggi $ 0.7822 dan kiwi ke level tertinggi $ 0.6164, level tertinggi sejak 21 Oktober. Serangkaian isu negatif dari AS diantaranya Komentar negatif dari mantan Fed Alan Greenspan data continued jobless claims AS pekan lalu, komentar negatif dari CO-CEO PIMCO Bill Gross laporan kebangkrutan BankUnited Financial Corp AS.

Technical Analysis

(+160-50p). EUR-USD menunjukkan signal bullish dari pola uptrend channel, meski tertahan di 61.8 FE 1.3938 untuk melanjutkan kenaikan pada hari ini. Meski trend masih bullish jangka pendek dan jangka menengah karena masih berada di atas 1.3669 (10-day MA)/1.3582 (downward channel)/1.3396 (200-day MA) didukung oleh indikator MACD, ADX, stochastic yang masih uptrend. Jika ditutup harian diatas 1.3938, euro dapat mengarah ke target 1.4000 (upper channel)/1.4257 (100.0 FE). Sell break dibawah 1.3820 target di 1.3640 stop di atas 1.3860, buy 1.3860 target 1.4000 stop 60p, Sell diatas 1.4000 target 1.3700, stop 1.4060.

(-40p). USDJPY menunjukkan pola bearish dari formasi pennant dalam downtrend channel, meski mendapatkan signal negatif dari pola candle three black crows di daily chart dan indikator ADX trending up & stochastic cross down, MACD downtrend, seharusnya membatasi potensi rebound. Meski hambatan untuk menurun dapat dibatasi oleh adanya trendline support di 93.65 dan 93.45 (61.8 FE). Jika ditutup dibawah level 93.45, akan mendorong USDJPY ke target 91.45/90.10 (projetion low). Sell 94.90 target 93.50 stop 95.35, buy break 95.30 target 94.70 stop 50p. Buy 93.50 target 94.90 stop 50p.

(-60p). GBP-USD menunjukkan trend bullish karena masih berada dalam pola rising wedge dalam uptrend channel setelah menembus resistance line di ascending triangle, seharusnya masih mendukung potensi kenaikan selama ditutup harian di1.5638 (100.0 FE)/1.5559 (200-day MA). Kegagalan membentuk mempertahankan formasi rising wedge dengan support line di 1.5670, dapat memutarbalikkan trend jangka pendek menjadi netral. Sementara indikator ADX, stochastic, MACD yang uptrend seharusnya masih mendukung skenario bullish, meski laju kenaikan dapat terbast berkat candle daily hanging man. Jika hari ini GBPUSD dapat ditutup diatas 1.5710 (61.8 FE) target 1.62/1.66. Buy 1.5750 target 1.5950 stop 60p, Sell break 1.5690 target 1.5690 stop 60p. buy break 1.5900 target 1.6000 stop 50p. Sell 1.6000 / Buy break 1.6020 target 1.6180 stop 60p.

(-60-60p). AUDUSD masih berada dalam trend bullish (uptrend channel), karena ditutup diatas 61.8 FE di 0.7648 dan 0.7715 (support line) untuk target 0.7890 (61.8 FE)/0.7903 (upper channel). Meski potensi kenaikan masih terbatas berkat signal negatif dari candle hanging man dalam pola rising wedge meski indikator stochastic flat di overbought teritorial, MACD overbought dan ADX menunjukkan uptrend, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan hari ini. Jika AUD ditutup dibawah 0.7640 (10-day MA & 61.8 prjection low), dapat memutarbalikkan trend bullish menjadi netral, untuk target 0.7360 (downward channel). Sell break 0.7700 target 0.7540 stop 60p, Sell 0.7840 target 0.7700 (closing) stop 50p, buy 0.7730 target 0.7850 stop 40p. Buy 0.7650 target 0.7850.

Signal Teknikal Reversal & Sentimen Negatif Dapat Menjatuhkan IHSG

Market Review
Kenaikan saham grup Astra (AALI, ASII, UNTR), INDF, BMRI yang baru-baru ini mendapatkan isu positif (pembagian dividen & upgrade target harga saham) dan komoditi (energi: PGAS, MEDC, ENRG) berkat imbas harga minyak melampaui $ 60/barel hari Rabu (20/05), gagal menguatkan IHSG. IHSG terkoreksi tipis berkat lebih dominannya aksi profit-taking di sejumlah saham grup Bakrie, perbankan (spekulasi Moodys’s), komoditi logam dan telekomunikasi, menjelang liburan Kenaikan Isa Al Masih dan adanya technical rejection (61.8% fibonacci expansion di tertinggi 1,907), mendorong IHSG ditutup di level 1,885.722, melemah 0.294 poin (0.02%). Total nilai transaksi tercatat Rp 6.051 triliun. Kenaikan di sejumlah indeks regional Asia, diacuhkan investor saham lokal. Investor asing membukukan net buy Rp 243.025 miliar dari net buy Rp 506.388 miliar (19/05).

Indeks saham MSCI Asia-Pacific terkoreksi kemarin, berkat imbas penguatan yen Jepang terhadap dolar dan the Fed men-downgrade prediksi ekonomi AS tahun ini. Meski laju penurunan indeks Asia, dapat dibatasi penguatan saham pertambangan & energi karena harga minyak mencapai tertinggi $ 62.04/barel.

IHSG Outlook
IHSG mendapatkan sentimen negatif dari kondisi teknikal menunjukkan signal reversal, laporan Moodys’s Investor Agency menempatkan 10 bank Indonesia untuk kemungkinan penurunan rating hutang dan isu global yang negatif seperti: projeksi penurunan pertumbuhan ekonomi AS oleh the Fed, komentar negatif Ex Chairman Fed Greenspan bahwa pasar perumahan AS masih berada dalam krisis dan bank di AS masih memerlukan tambahan dana yang besar, dapat membebani potensi kenaikan IHSG hari ini. Meski IHSG masih berada dalam kondisi teknikal uptrend jangka pendek. Analis asing kembali meng-upgrade rekomendasi Indonesia sebagai tujuan investasi oleh investor di emerging markets seperti dalam survei Merrill Lynch dan BNP Paribas, kenaikan harga minyak (menjelang OPEC Meeting; 28/05), pembagian dividen emiten, seharusnya memberikan keuntungan kepada saham komoditi, industri, saham grup Bakrie & grup Astra, TLKM , PTBA yang memiliki isu positif.

Stock Picks:
* BMRI
* TINS

Global Outlook
Munculnya kembali sentimen negatif dapat membebani kinerja indeks saham regional Asia dan AS, dari projeksi penurunan pertumbuhan ekonomi oleh the Fed yang melihat resiko penurunan yang signifikan di ekonomi dan sistem finansial global masih “rapuh terhadap guncangan berikutnya”, lembaga pemeringkat internasional S&P menurunkan rating hutang Inggris menjadi netral dari stabil, dan komentar Ex Fed Greenspan yang negatif mengenai kondisi pasar perumahan dan bank di AS, menunjukkan bahwa optimisme terhadap pemulihan ekonomi global kembali terganggu. Mahalnya valuasi indeks saham Jepang, China dan AS (PE S&P Trailing-12bulan: 59x) dapat membebani pola uptrend indeks, meski trend kenaikan harga komoditi dapat menopang kinerja saham pertambangan/energi/perkebunan.

Technical Analysis:
IHSG kembali mendapatkan signal teknikal bearish reversal minor, dari pola candle doji star, technical rejection dari 61.8 fibonacci expansion di 1,907 dan indikator ADX yang menunjukkan kekuatan kenaikan baru-baru ini terlihat lemah guna mencapai target 1,950. Potensi penurunan untuk mengisi runaway gap (di kisaran 1,850an) masih terbuka, karena indikator stochastic dan MACD berada dalam kondisi overbought. Meski laju penurunan terbatas karena IHSG berada dalam diagonal triangle uptrend, dengan support di 1,831 (5-day MA & 161.8 FE))/1,820 (10-day MA). Trend masih bullish, selama ditutup diatas uptrend line di 1,737 target 1,950 (50% Fibonacci Retracement)/2,160 (50.0% FR), mendukung analisa Elliot wave, saat ini dalam proses siklus impulse wave 5 dalam siklus koreksi wave intermediate 4 dalam subwave B.
Resistance: 1923.73/1914.23/1904.72/1896.61. PP 1888.49
Support : 1878.99/1861.37/1853.25/1835.63/1818.01
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 1,820-1,905)

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The Chart is next

Indeks Regional Berpotensi Melanjutkan Koreksi Reversal Minor

SSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
9445 9220 9455 9120 9455 9290 9555 9235 9270 9335 9435 9470 9535
Commentary

Secara teknikal, meski SSIM9 berada dalam pola uptrend channel indeks mendapatkan signal negatif dari downtrend channel dan pola candle hanging man yang seharusnya mendukung potensi penurunan selama ditutup dibawah 9,440 (upper channel) untuk target 61.8% FE di 9,181/8,938 (downward channel), dimana dapat memutarbalikkan trend bullish jangka pendek menjadi netral, jika indeks ditutup dibawah 9,181. Indikator teknikal ADX masih terkoreksi menurun, meski stochastic flat & MACD bullish, seharusnya masih mendukung perkiraan konsolidasi, karena volume menunjukkan penurunan disaat indeks menurun menunjukkan laju rebound terlihat lemah, meski trend jangka pendek masih bulish selama berada diatas 9,164 (trendine) target 9,623 (61.8 FR)/9709 (upper channel). Potensi penurunan terbatas di support line 20-day MA di 8,944 di daily chart. Perkiraan range hari ini: 9100-9500.

Rekomendasi : Sell break 9150 target 9000, stop 100p, Buy break 9,330 target 9430 stop 60p, sell 9450 target 9300.

KSM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
183.7 182.0 184.0 181.0 185.1 182.8 186.1 181.4 182.0 182.9 184.4 185.0 185.9
Commentary

Secara teknikal, KSM9 masih berada dalam kondisi uptrend, karena indeks berada dalam uptrend channel dan ascending triangle, meski ditutup dibawah upper channel di 184.55 dan pola candle spinning top, seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan hari ini, terutama jika menembus 184.45. Sementara kondisi stochastic mulai crossing up, MACD bullish dan ADX menunjukkan koreksi penurunan, seharusnya mendukung pola range trading dalam beberapa hari mendatang. Trend dapat berbalik bearish jika indeks ditutup dibawah 176.10 (trendline support) target 168.60 (downtrend support), menggagalkan skenario bullish di bulan ini target 186.85 (161.8 FE)/190.52 (100.0 FE). Perkiraan range hari ini: 180.00-184.00

Rekomendasi : Buy 176.50 target 184.00 stop 100p, sell break 180.50 & 179.20 target 184.00 stop 100p Sell 184.80 tgt 181.0

HSIK9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
17361 17031 17344 16931 17500 17188 17600 16987 17138 17250 17513 17664 17776
Commentary

Secara teknikal, HSIK9 masih berada dalam trend bullish, karena indeks berada dalam uptrend channel, meski mendapatkan signal bearish dari pola candle inverted hammer dan double top di daily chart, seharusnya mendukung potensi penurunan har ini, dimana indikator MACD uptrend, stochastic bullish, ADX yang terkoreksi turun yang mendukung perkiraan penurunan indeks terlihat lemah. Indeks selama ditutup diatas 16,820 (trendline support) dapat mengarahkan indeks ke 16,290 (100.0 FE)/15,735 (downward channel). Potensi kenaikan terbatas di resistance 17,285/17,755, jika tembus target 17,990 (upper channel)/18,200 (61.8FE), selama level support line 16,685. Perkiraan range hari ini : 17200-17700.

Rekomendasi : Sell break 16,830 target 16,290 (or closing) stop 100 p. buy break 17,300 target 17550, stop 100 poin. Buy break 17,565 target 17,980 stop 100p. Sell 17,980 target 17,500 stop 100p. (+210p: sell break 17240 was done)

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Asian Currencies Climb on Fund Inflows, Global Dollar Weakness

Asian currencies rose, led by the Taiwan dollar and Malaysia’s ringgit, as reports signaled the outlook for regional exports and inflows of foreign exchange is improving. Taiwan’s dollar climbed to a five-month high as the island’s current account swelled to a record surplus. The ringgit advanced to the strongest level in a week after gross domestic product in Singapore, Malaysia’s biggest trading partner, shrank less than initially estimated last quarter. The ICE Dollar Index fell to its lowest level this year as the Federal Reserve said it may increase asset purchases, boosting supply of the currency. Taiwan’s currency rose 0.4 percent to NT$32.738 per dollar as of 4 p.m. in Taipei, according to Taipei Forex Inc. It touched NT$32.606, the strongest since Dec. 22. The ringgit gained 0.5 percent to 3.5185, and reached 3.5180, the highest level since May 13. The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the euro, yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and Swedish krona, dropped for a fourth day to 81.03. It declined to the year’s low of 80.91 yesterday.

‘Easing Off’
Singapore’s GDP fell an annualized 14.6 percent last quarter from the previous three months, after shrinking 16.4 percent between October and December, the trade ministry said in a statement today. The first-quarter contraction was better than an April 14 estimate of a 19.7 percent drop.

The dollar weakened against 13 of the world’s 16 major currencies on concern the U.S. central bank will supply more of the currency to help end a recession in the world’s biggest economy. The yen rose to 94.63 per dollar in Tokyo after touching 94.29, the highest level since March 20, from 94.88 yesterday in New York. The euro traded at $1.3818 from $1.3780 yesterday, when it reached $1.3830, the strongest level since Jan. 5.

‘Overweight’ Emerging Markets
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of regional shares and the MSCI Emerging-Markets Index fell today following yesterday’s highest closing levels since October. A net 46 percent of the 220 fund managers surveyed by Merrill Lynch & Co. in May said they were “overweight” emerging-market equities, up from 4 percent two months ago and the highest level since mid-2007. South Korea’s won rose as overseas investors bought more of the nation’s shares than they sold for a fifth day, exchange data showed. The currency climbed 0.2 percent to 1,248.67, taking gains in the past three months to 21 percent, Asia’s best performance.

Taiwan Trade
Taiwan’s dollar climbed for a third day after the island’s current-account surplus widened to $13 billion in the first quarter as imports plunged, according to a report yesterday after local markets closed. Investors abroad bought more Taiwan shares than they sold for a second day, exchange data shows. Taiwan’s dollar is likely to be one of Asia’s “top- performing” currencies in the second half of this year, thanks in part to improving ties with China, according to Societe Generale SA. Investors should buy the currency against the ringgit to profit from this, Patrick Bennett, a Hong Kong-based currency and rates strategist at Societe, wrote in a note today. Elsewhere, the Philippine peso rose 0.1 percent to 47.23 per dollar and the Thai baht added 0.2 percent to 34.39. Singapore’s dollar climbed 0.4 percent to $1.4557 and China’s yuan was little changed at 6.8241. Indonesia’s markets are closed for a public holiday, closed at 10,320 per dollar on Wednesday (20/05).

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

Written by Oil N' Gold |
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil retreats mildly after hitting as high as 62.26. While some consolidation could be seen, short term outlook will remain bullish as long as 56.07 support holds Current rally should extend further towards 55 weeks EMA (now at 67.30). On the downside, though, below 56.07 support will indicate that a short term top is at least formed and should bring deeper decline to retest lower channel support at 49.01 again.

In the bigger picture, the possible five wave structure of the rise from 33.2 and the sustained trading above 55 days EMA is consistent with the view that fall from 147.27 has completed at 33.2. Outlook will now remain bullish as long as 43.83 support holds and crude oil is set to take on next key resistance of 55 weeks EMA at 67.28 and 55 months EMA at 68.66. Upside should be limited there, at least initially. Nevertheless, in case of a strong break, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77.

Gold Daily Technical Outlook

Written by Oil N' Gold |
Comex Gold (GC)

Gold's break of 934.8 as well as channel resistance affirms the bullish case that correction from 1007.7 has completed at 865/865.5 already. Short term outlook will remain bullish as long as 915.2 support holds, targeting 967.7 resistance first. Break will bring retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone. However a break below 915.2 will dampen this bullish case again and turn outlook mixed.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 1007.7 so far is consistent with the bullish case. That is, rise from 681 is resumption of long term up trend after triangle consolidation from 1033.9 completed at 681. Retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone should now be seen. Decisive break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. On the downside, while another fall cannot be ruled out for the moment, we'll hold on to the bullish case as long as 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) remains intact.

However, note that sustained break of 801.50 cluster support will dampen the above preferred view. This will suggest that rise from 681 is not resuming the long term up trend but is merely part of the consolidation from 1033.9. In other words, fall from 1007.7 is part of the consolidation too and could then target 681 low before completion.

British Pound (GBP) Upside Trend Break Out Analysis

Taking another look at the British pound. On May 8, I produced a video which gave a detailed analysis of the British pound (GBP) versus the US dollar (USD). At that time I expected the British Pound to continue its gains against the US dollar. In today's video I will revisit GBP/USD cross to see just what has happened to this market. I strongly recommend you take a look at my earlier video. Here is the link before watching our new video. As always, the videos are free to watch and there's no need to register. I would love to get your feedback about this video and your own predictions about this market on our blog.

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

Is This Stock Market Rally Believable?

By Mike Conlon on May 21, 2009
The KISS Rally (and some other favorite aphorisms) - Keep It Simple, Stupid!
I admit I am far too guilty of trying to rationalize what my eyes are seeing as the market seems to defy gravity and continues to move higher. After taking a “pause” last week and pulling back, it appears that strength has returned as the bulls outnumbered the bears to start the week. So what gives? The short answer is-damned if I know. I usually laugh when I see some respected pundit or the CNBC zoo-crew provide a reason for market movement (almost always after the fact) as the answer is usually never as complicated as they make it out to be. In my younger days, I used to love to reply that, “there are more buyers than sellers” when asked why the market was moving higher. What is it about human nature that requires a need to know everything about everything? It’s almost as if people view the markets as some sort of clandestine enterprise whose secrets are shared by a privileged few. Let me reveal the secret-that’s not it at all!

What the markets are is a series of micro-elections (buy or sell) that occur in a certain timeframe that reveal the collective will of the participants. The prevailing will determines whether the market is up or down regardless of a participant’s reasons for holding any such view. Let’s take a look at the charts of both the S&P 500 ETF (SPY: 90.51 -0.61 -0.67%) and the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ: 34.28 -0.12 -0.35%) to see what I mean.As we can see from the charts, the bottom was formed on March 9th and there has been a pretty nice move up.The market is always forward-looking but to me, the fundamentals just don’t add up (yet). Well what changed in the economy to cause this rally to happen?

Then I thought back to some of the popular catch phrases that I learned as a youth in the business and it all started to make sense. Let’s examine a few:
1. Don’t fight the Fed! We have seen so far that the Fed and this administration is going to do just about anything (whether it makes financial sense or not) to back-stop the economy. The printing press has been opened and the money is flowing. So get out of the way! It looks like the shorts in the market have realized this and have helped contribute to the rally.

2. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent! This is a continuation of the first point but a lot of traders have problems with this one. The need to be “right” sometimes outweighs the consequence of being wrong.

3. The trend is your friend! As we can see, since the V bottom was formed, the indices have made a series of higher highs and lower lows, supported nicely by the 20 day moving averages (SMA).

4. Bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered! It is important to be aware that when a sustained move takes place based on no fundamentals, it is important to have a good risk management strategy in place and know where to pull the rip-cord on the downside.

5. Lastly, K.I.S.S- Keep it simple, stupid! Don’t try to out-think the market. Take what it gives you. Trying to find the exact reason why something is happening is a fool’s folly. Find a low-risk entry, employ money management techniques, and enjoy the ride! As we can see, sometimes when trading the markets it is better to take a simple approach than a complex one. By “dumbing down” your approach, you could find yourself in profitable trades that you didn’t even know where out there.

US Stocks: Today Versus 1938

By Prieur du Plessis on May 21, 2009 | More Posts By Prieur du Plessis | Author's Website
As investors debate the longevity of the nascent stock market advance, they are increasingly falling back on similar historical situations to glean perspective. In this regard, a comparison of the current market and that of 1936 - 1938 makes for interesting reading. Strikingly, the charts below, courtesy of Bespoke, show similar patterns in the movements of the S&P 500 Index (^GSPC: 903.47 0.00 0.00%) from 2007 to 2009 to those of 1936 to 1938.Given the similarity of the advances and declines in these periods, Bespoke looked at how the S&P 500 would have to perform going forward in order to keep the relationship intact.

At its peak on May 8, the S&P 500 had notched up gains of 38.2% from the March lows. In 1938, the S&P advanced 50.5% in the four months following its low.Bespoke said: “If the S&P 500 were to have a similar rally off its lows today, it would top out at 1,018. While breaking 1,000 on the S&P 500 seems remarkable given where we were in March, it is still nearly 200 points lower than where the index was trading before the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy.” Time will tell …

Neither The Economy Nor The Stock Market Is Out Of The Woods Yet

By Claus Vogt on May 20, 2009 | More Posts By Claus Vogt | Author's Website
Long-term, financial markets are driven by fundamentals. And in the medium term, they’re driven by the business cycle. That’s why your analysis should always start with both of these.

Right now, the stock market’s fundamentals are undeniably dire …
On a twelve-month trailing basis, the price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 (^GSPC: 903.47 0.00 0.00%) is currently a very high 59. And it’s headed much higher because corporate earnings are still collapsing.
A quick return to the record earnings of 2006 and 2007 is highly improbable for two reasons:

1. Sales margins hit record highs during those years and are now down considerably. There is no reason to expect a quick return to these abnormally high margins.
2. The financial industry contributed roughly one-third of all corporate earnings to the S&P 500 in 2006 and 2007. It will take many years for banks to return to this strength - if ever.

I expect it'll take banks many years to recover from their monumental losses and regain their strength of 2006 and 2007.
I expect it’ll take banks many years to recover from their monumental losses and regain their strength of 2006 and 2007.

Other valuation measures confirm that stocks are not cheap. In actuality, they’re expensive! For instance, the S&P 500 dividend yield is 3.1 percent. Historically you should expect dividend yields above six percent to signal a long-term buying opportunity.

What About the Business Cycle?
We’re still mired in a recession. The best that can be said is that the economy isn’t shrinking as fast as it did during the past two quarters. So the reason for all the current ballyhoo and green shoot euphoria is an economy that is shrinking less along with the hope for a quick turnaround. In this context, it’s probably good to know that most recessions were interrupted by at least one quarter of GPD growth, a rather big green shoot if you will. But these did not signal a turning point, and the recessions reappeared.o investors should be careful in declaring victory and jumping aboard the bullish ship. Especially since this ship is being overcrowded again after the stock market’s strong rally of the past 10 weeks.

This sharp shift in sentiment is even more amazing when taking the technical situation of the stock market into account …

Technical Analysis Argues For an End to This Rally
Technical analysis can give you very important hints to help you determine the markets’ future direction. However, I don’t use technical analysis on a standalone basis. I just consider it a very helpful tool to assist my fundamental work.
Here’s how technical analysis tells me that the rally of the past 10 weeks is probably not the beginning of a new bull market but rather a bear market rally that will be followed by renewed weakness:
* The stock market rally since March 9 showed rather weak volume. This is typical for a bear market rally.
* The stocks with the weakest fundamentals - the weakest balance sheets - and the highest short interest have risen the most. This is also typical bear market rally behavior.
* Most indexes in Europe and the U.S. have risen to major resistance areas. Most have touched their falling 200-day moving averages for the first time since May 2008. A falling 200-day moving average is the most reliable moving average to stop a bear market rally.
* Momentum indicators, like the Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO), my favorite, are extremely overbought. Right now they’ve rolled over and issued sell signals.
* Sentiment indicators show a huge shift since March. Bears are again a minority, both in relation to the stock market and the economy. Since sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators, this is an additional red flag for the overall bearish picture.
Stock market bears are in a minority ... a red flag for the overall bearish picture.
Stock market bears are in a minority … a red flag for the overall bearish picture.
* Many bullish analysts show analogies with former bear market bottoms to prove their bullish point. They never use the 1930s as an analogy, why? If they did, they’d have to conclude that the market was on its way to new lows … right now.
* Since March 9, the stock market rally has the look of a wedge formation, one of the most reliable chart formations. On May 13, as shown in the chart below, the price broke below the lower trend line of this wedge and did so dynamically. This was a sell signal, marking the end of the bear market rally.

Price broke out of a wedge formation on May 13 ...
You Should Consider Getting Out of the Market … Now!
All of these points strongly argue that the rally off of the March 2009 low was nothing but a bear market rally. And now this rally seems to be ending.

In my opinion, this rally is your opportunity to get out of stocks you own.
Even if - against all likelihood - this rally should turn out to be the first wave of a new bull market, there’s no need to rush in. I would suggest waiting for at least some bullish technical signals, like a rising 200-day moving average, before buying.

Never forget: The biggest mistake investors made during the 1930s was turning bullish too soon!

Emerging-Market Investors Rate China as Best Bet, Merrill Says

(Bloomberg) -- China is the most-favored bet among global emerging-market stock investors following a “major U- turn” on growth expectations for the world’s third-largest economy, according to a Merrill Lynch & Co. survey. About 80 percent of the investors that were polled said they were “overweight” Chinese equities, the highest proportion since Merrill began the monthly survey more than five years ago. That suggests they held more of the nation’s securities than their relevant benchmarks indicated. Six out of every 10 respondents surveyed this month forecast China’s economic growth would strengthen, up from one in 10 in November.

“Weaker Chinese growth in coming months would now be a surprise,” Bank of America-Merrill Lynch strategists Michael Hartnett, Michael Penn and Jacky Tang wrote yesterday in a research note published in New York.

The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks the bigger of China’s two stock exchanges, has surged 44 percent so far this year and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks so- called H shares of Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, is up 27 percent. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 33 percent.

The emerging-market investors surveyed by Merrill also said they shifted funds to Turkey, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa and Taiwan, and cut their holdings in Israel, Chile, Malaysia and India. Merrill did not disclose how many of these investors there were among the 220 fund managers with assets of about $617 billion that took part in a global survey conducted May 8-14. A net 46 percent of the managers in the global survey said they were “overweight” emerging-market equities, up from 4 percent two months ago and the highest proportion since mid-2007, according to Merrill.

Fed Officials Unconvinced Economy’s ‘Stabilization’ to Persist

(Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve officials, who see possible signs of “stabilization” in the U.S. economy, signaled they’re not convinced those improvements will persist.
Policy makers, meeting April 28-29 in Washington, saw “significant downside risks” to the outlook for the economy, with the global financial system still “vulnerable to further shocks,” minutes of the session released yesterday said.The report indicates that Fed officials may be ready to build on their plan in March to buy $300 billion of Treasuries should the economy or financial markets deteriorate further. Some policy makers said an increase “might well be warranted at some point to spur a more rapid pace of recovery” from the worst recession in five decades, the minutes showed.

Government-bond yields declined after the report, indicating some investors expect the Fed to make additional purchases.Yesterday’s minutes also updated economic projections from the 17 Fed policy makers, who forecast a deeper U.S. contraction than they foresaw in January, with a 9 percent unemployment rate lasting through the end of 2010.Central bankers made their biggest cut yet to next year’s growth forecast, indicating the economy won’t rebound as quickly as previously anticipated. The jobless rate may remain as high as 8.5 percent in late 2011. The weaker forecasts are in line with changes to projections by private economists over the past few months.

‘Ebb Slowly’
“Participants generally expected that strains in credit markets and in the banking system would ebb slowly, and hence the pace of recovery would continue to be damped in 2010,” the Fed said in the minutes. Economic growth will pick up in 2011 as financial conditions improve, the Fed said. U.S. central bankers cited a slower pace of contraction in their April statement, leaving the benchmark interest rate trading in a range of zero to 0.25 percent. They cited improved financial conditions, stronger sentiment from businesses and households and expectations of an increase in industrial production to replace inventories.

Firming Confidence
A firming in consumer confidence, industrial production and other areas of the economy indicate the recession may be easing. Output at factories, mines and utilities decreased 0.5 percent last month after dropping 1.7 percent in March, Fed figures showed last week. That doesn’t necessarily mean policy makers are counting on continued improvement, yesterday’s report indicated.The economy is contracting at a 1.1 percent annual pace in the second quarter, according to estimates from Macroeconomic Advisers LLC, compared with a 6.1 percent annual rate of decline in the first three months of the year.

Expanded Assets
The Fed has expanded assets on its balance sheet by $1.3 trillion over the past year to $2.2 trillion to replenish liquidity, narrow credit spreads and support borrowing and spending. The central bank said May 19 that in July it will begin accepting commercial mortgage-backed securities issued before Jan. 1 into the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, which provides financing to investors in asset-backed securities backed by consumer and business loans.

Yields Rise
The Fed’s securities purchase program hasn’t prevented yields on U.S. notes from rising. Ten-year Treasury yields are up from 2.53 percent March 18 when the central bank said it would buy $300 billion of government debt over six months. Banks are still struggling with rising loan delinquencies in a variety of categories. Nearly 8 percent of residential real estate loans were delinquent in the first quarter, up from 6.3 percent in the fourth quarter, according to seasonally adjusted Fed data.

Another Bottom for Stocks Coming, Next Crisis Will Be in Currencies: Rogers

The stock market may hit new lows this year or the next as the current rally has been largely caused by the money printed by central banks and fundamental problems remain unsolved, legendary investor Jim Rogers told CNBC Wednesday.His views echo those of renowned bear Marc Faber, who told CNBC last week that the rises in share prices did not mean the world was embarking on a path of sustainable economic growth.
"I'm not buying shares if that's what you mean. Not at all," Rogers told "Squawk Box Asia.""The bottom will probably come later this year, next year, who knows when," he added.

Governments have not solved the essential problems that caused the crisis but instead they "flooded the world with money," according to Rogers. Trying to solve the problem of too much consumption and too much debt with more consumption "defies belief" and will not work, he said."I mean … you give me 5 or 6 trillion dollars, I'll show you a very good time, there's no question about that," Rogers said.A long-term advocate of commodities, he reiterated that this will be the first sector to rise when the world gets out of the crisis, as investment in new mines, the oil sector and agriculture has been curtailed during the crisis and this will create a shortage.

"Fundamentals for General Motors [GM 1.461 0.191 (+15.04%) ] are not getting better. Fundamentals for Citibank [C 3.82 0.05 (+1.33%) ] are not getting better. I can think of very few industries in the world where the fundamentals are getting better. But the fundamentals of commodities are getting better, full stop," he said.I think I'm going to make more in agriculture, I think I'm going to make more in some other real assets for awhile, I think I'll make more in silver. But I do own gold," Rogers added. (Click here to read why Rogers thinks currencies are the next crisis).The price of oil is also likely to remain high despite the fact that the recession is taking its toll on demand, he said.

"You know supplies worldwide are declining at the rate of anywhere from 4 to 6 percent a year, yes, demand is down at the moment but in longer term, unless somebody discovers a lot of oil very quickly, the surprise is going to be how high the price of oil stays, and how high it eventually goes," Rogers added.
The next financial meltdown will be in the currency markets, as central banks around the world have been printing money, giving the appearance of massive government intervention to weaken their currencies, legendary investor Jim Rogers, chairman, Rogers Holdings, told CNBC Wednesday.

"At the moment I have virtually no hedges, I suspect it is going to be the next problem, big crisis will be in the currency markets, I'm trying to figure out what to do there," Rogers told "Squawk Box Asia".Rogers has bought the yen [JPY-TN 95.32 -0.63 (-0.66%) ] because he expects the Japanese currency to withstand future problems, but he does not have short positions in any currency and is currently not buying the yen any more."I'm certainly not short in the dollar — not at the moment, although it may be the peak. We may have come to the peak," he said. "I don't plan to own the yen forever, because you know the Japanese, Japan has some huge problems down the road."For the moment currencies may look safer than anything else in the markets, as stocks may face a new bottom since they were artificially lifted by the amount of money created by central banks, but there are pitfalls ahead, he said.

"If I am right, you're going to see a lot of currency problems in the next decade or two," Rogers said.

"Governments around the world are doing their best to destroy currencies, many currencies in fact. And people need to understand that; if they don't understand it now, they're going to find out, they're going to find out the hard way," he added

Oil Rally to Meet Test at 200-Day Average: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil, up 36 percent this year, may extend its rally should prices cross their 200-day moving average, technical analysis from Petromatrix GmbH suggests.Oil for July delivery rose to $60.67 today on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest for the front-month contract since Nov. 28. The 200-day moving average of closing prices is at $63.29 a barrel, down from a peak of $112.48 on Oct. 3.“The 200-day moving average is a key level for many momentum models and a break of it would provide further support,” Petromatrix Managing Director Olivier Jakob said in a report yesterday.

Traders use moving averages to signal trends and indicate levels of support and resistance for prices. The rising 50-day moving average, currently at $52, will support prices, Jakob said. In addition, the 100-day mean reached a low of $44.13 on April 24 and started to rise, a bullish signal.Front-month oil traded above $60 for a second day. A sustained move above $60 will make that price a support and reinforce the level below at $55, Jakob said. Traders betting on oil falling back to $50 will “quickly move into the stress-test category,” he said.

Gold Targets Record After $950, Mizuho Says: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- Gold may rise to a record, possibly driven higher by weakness in the dollar, should the precious metal first “hold clearly” above $950 an ounce, Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. said, citing trading patterns. A rise to more than that level would take gold above a so- called resistance point, according to a note and table yesterday from Nicole Elliott, London-based senior technical analyst at Mizuho. Resistance prices, listed by Elliot in the table, may identify clusters of sell orders.“While we continue to favor an eventual break to new record highs, only when it holds clearly above $950 per ounce will bullish momentum kick in,” she wrote, without giving a timeframe. “This may be due to generalized U.S. dollar weakness, courtesy of U.S. government largesse, rather than renewed appetite for precious metals.”

Gold, which tends to move in the opposite direction to the U.S. currency, reached a record $1,032.70 an ounce on March 17, 2008 and last rose to more than $950 an ounce on March 23. The precious metal traded today at $928.15 an ounce at 2:22 p.m. in Singapore, about 2.3 percent less than the $950 threshold.The Dollar Index, traded through Intercontinental Exchange Inc. to track the U.S. currency against those of six major trading partners, has decreased 8.3 percent since reaching a three-year high on March 4.The U.S. Federal Reserve has lowered rates to close to zero and is buying government and corporate bonds to fight the recession in the world’s largest economy. The policy, known as quantitative easing, increases the supply of money.

Still, “gold bugs are currently two a penny -- always a worrying sign,” Elliott wrote, referring to backers of the precious metal as an investment. “More so when prices are going broadly nowhere and one adds in storage and opportunity costs.”
Bullion has risen 5.5 percent this year as investors’ concern about the health of the global economy and expectations for a build in inflation increased demand for the metal as a store of value.

Pola Uptrend Asian Index Masih Berlanjut

SSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
9290 9220 9455 9120 9455 9290 9555 9235 9270 9335 9435 9470 9535
Commentary

Secara teknikal, SSIM9 berada dalam pola uptrend channel dalam formasi uptrend channel menunjukkan pola continuation bullish, dengan minimnya sinal negatif dan harga berada di atas 9103 (downward channel) dan 9261 (20-day MA), seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan. Indikator teknikal ADX masih terkoreksi menurun, stochastic flat & MACD bullish, seharusnya masih mendukung perkiraan konsolidasi, karena volume menunjukkan penurunan disaat indeks menurun menunjukkan laju rebound terlihat lemah, meski trend jangka pendek masih bulish selama berada diatas 9,103 (trendine) target 9,623 (61.8 FR)/9709 (upper channel). Potensi penurunan terbatas di support line 20-day MA & 35-day MA di 9260/8974 di daily chart. Perkiraan range hari ini: 9300-9600.
Rekomendasi : buy break 9540 target 9700, stop 100p, Sell 9,720 target 9450 stop 100p, sell break 9300 target 9100.

KSM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
183.7 178.1 181.25 177.1 182.0 179.7 183.0 181.4 182.0 182.9 184.4 185.0 185.9
Commentary

Secara teknikal, KSM9 masih berada dalam kondisi uptrend, karena indeks berada dalam uptrend channel dan ascending triangle, meski ditutup diatas trendline 179.90 (20-day MA) menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola candle hanging man, seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan hari ini, terutama jika menembus 184.45 (61.8 FE), sementara kondisi stochastic mulai crossing up, MACD bullish dan ADX kembali uptrend, seharusnya mendukung pola kenaikan dari range trading dalam beberapa hari mendatang. Trend dapat berbalik bearish jika indeks ditutup dibawah 177.80 (trendline support) target 180.59 (rising window; 19/05), menggagalkan skenario bullish di bulan ini untuk target 186.85 (161.8 FE)/190.52 (100.0 FE). Perkiraan range hari ini: 182.00-186.00

Rekomendasi : Buy break 184.50 target 187.00 stop 100p, sell 186.90 target 184.00 stop 100p.

HSIK9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
17361 17031 17344 16931 17500 17188 17600 16987 17138 17250 17513 17664 17776
Commentary

Secara teknikal, HSIK9 masih berada dalam trend bullish, karena indeks berada dalam uptrend channel, meski mendapatkan signal bearish dari pola candle evening star dan double top di daily chart, seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan hari ini, dimana indikator MACD uptrend, stochastic bullish, ADX yang terkoreksi turun yang mendukung perkiraan kenaikan indeks terlihat lemah. Indeks selama ditutup dibawah resistance line di downtrend channel di 16,938 (20-day MA), potensi kenaikan dapat mencapai target 17,990 (upper channel) dan 18,200 (61.8FE), selama level support line 16,685. Perkiraan range hari ini : 17200-17700.

Rekomendasi : Buy break 17,560 target 17,800 (or closing) stop 100 p. sell break 17,240 target 17000, stop 100 poin. Sell break 16,950 target 16720 stop 100p. Sell 17,990 target 17,500 stop 100p. (+200p)

Daily Recap & Technical Analysis Forex/Gold/DJIA

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
Rupee: Rupee ended at 47.75/77 per dollar yesterday, rebounding from 47.26 lows and taking the three day gains to 4.3%. A close watch on the stock market is being kept for direction. However, upside resistance comes around 48.60 levels. Exporters can start booking near term contracts at upticks. (USD/INR : 47.73).
Gold: Gold took support around $917 witnessing sideways trading yesterday before closing at $924. The daily and 4-hourly chart is indicating slight selling pressure with support from 21 Day EMA coming in at $912. Buying around those levels could be considered for $10-$12. The outlook remains bullish for Gold above $895 (100 Daily EMA). (Gold- 927.62)
Dollar Index: Dollar Index strongly weakened to 82.20 (minor support) levels as expected. The stochastic is highly oversold and a small rebound is probable. The overall outlook remains bearish for DX below 83.20 levels and a break of 82.20 support can bring a fall upto 80.20 support (refer chart in the website) (DI- 82.20)
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank
EURUSD
Comment: Capped almost too neatly below the increasingly important resistance around 1.3700. Note that above here there are no really strong resistance levels until the 1.4200 area. Perhaps the rising 9-day moving average might help push it up through here, dragged higher by other currencies which are leading this move.Strategy: Buy at 1.3590, adding to 1.3465; stop below 1.3400. Short term target 1.3700, then a lot more.Direction of Trade: →↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.3585 " 1.3652/1.3678
1.3531 1.37
1.3461 1.3722/1.3739**
1.3422/1.3400* 1.38
1.33 1.385
GBPUSD
Comment: Gathering upside pressure despite political sleaze. Momentum has yet to turn decidedly bullish as we unwind the record downside pressure built between October and November. Strategy: Buy at 1.5455, adding to 1.5250; stop below 1.5050. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.5535 for 1.5700 short term and then 1.5800/1.5885.Direction of Trade: →↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.5425 " 1.55
1.534 1.5535*
1.529 1.56
1.5235 1.5725
1.5100* 1.5885
USDJPY
Comment: Dropping neatly from the first Fibonacci and what is now trendline resistance. It is possible that we have already formed an interim high and we have already started the descent to re-test the bottom of the 'cloud' which might hold on a first attempt but then we favour a break lower still. Strategy: Sell 95.55, adding to 96.00; stop well above 96.75. First target 94.50, then 93.55.Direction of Trade: →
Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
95.48 " 95.8
95 96.22
94.73 96.71*
94.55* 97.25
93.55* 97.85*
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 8454.37, 8423.23 and 8392.50(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8364.37, where correction also can be. Then follows 8330.60. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8302.40. Continuation will bring 8274.37.
Today's resistance: - 8528.40, 8561.22 and 8606.30(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8641.40, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8656.47, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8685.00. Continuation would bring 8707.50.

IHSG : Pola Uptrend Dibayangi Kondisi Overbought dan Technical Rejection

Market Review

IHSG kembali menunjukkan keperkasaannya kemarin, berkat sentimen positif dari analis Morgan Stanley menaikkan target harga saham bank lokal (BMRI menjadi Rp 3,200, BBRI menjadi Rp 6,550, BBCA menjadi Rp 3,195), Deutsche Bank menaikkan rating saham Indonesia menjadi overweight, Citigroup merevisi naik pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia tahun 2009 menjadi 3.9%, agenda pemberian dividen (BBCA dan BBRI) dan imbas rally di indeks saham global. Semua sektor di BEI, ditutup menguat dalam kisaran 0.74%-7.71% kemarin, dipimpin oleh sektor aneka industri, perbankan dan komoditiI. IHSG ditutup menguat 82.448 poin (4.571%) di 1,886.016, merupakan level tertinggi sejak 23 September 2009, dengan nilai total transaksi sebesar Rp 8.234 triliun. Investor asing membukukan net buy sebesar Rp 308 miliar dari net sell Rp 308.04 miliar hari Senin(18/05).

Indeks saham MSCI Asia-Pacific ditutup menguat tajam kemarin, mendorong indeks ke level tertinggi 7-bulan, karena sentimen positif dari 3 bank AS yang berencana membayar hutang kepada pemerintah, penurunan suku bunga Libor USD dan kenaikan saham finansial, komoditi dan otomotif di Asia.

IHSG Outlook


Rally IHSG yang kuat di awal pekan ini kembali menimbulkan kekhawatiran terhadap kondisi IHSG yang overbought dan overshoot, dapat mendorong aksi profit-taking di sejumlah saham unggulan yang relatif mahal, meski trend jangka pendek masih bullish. Sementara kuatnya inflow ke pasar saham lokal, setelah sejumlah analis asing (JP Morgan, DB, Morgan Stanley, RCM AM, CS) dan lokal (Danareksa menaikkan target IHSG: 2,160 di End-2009), baru-baru ini merevisi naik rating dan target harga saham lokal, telah mendorong relokasi kapital dari luar negeri, berdasarkan perkiraan membaiknya pertumbuhan ekonomi RI di Q2 2009, penurunan inflasi & suku bunga BI, diikuti kenaikan harga komoditi (harga minyak capai tertinggi $ 60.48/barel kemarin), dapat memberikan support kepada IHSG hari ini. Saham grup Bakrie seharusnya mendapatkan sentimen positif dari analyst meeting kemarin, dan saham 2nd liner (TRUB,INKP,GGRM,BLTA,BRPT), dapat menopang kinerja IHSG.

Stock Picks:

* ADHI
* INDF

Global Outlook

Indeks saham Asia kembali menunjukkan valuasi yang mahal dan kondisi teknikal yang overbought, didukung oleh prediksi Deutsche Bank AS yang melhat rally saham Asia di tahun ini akan terhenti karena pemulihan di earnings tidak diimbangi oleh kenaikan harga saham. Valuasi Indeks MSCI Asia saat ini 18x earnings, dibandingkan 14x untuk rata-rata 5-tahun. Meski laporan perumahan AS (Housing Starts -12,8%, Building Permits -3.3% di bulan April) dirilis kemarin tercatat mengecewakan, dapat membebani kinerja indeks regional, meski laporan 3 bank AS melakukan pembayaran hutang kepada pemerintah dan penurunan suku bunga LIBOR USD, serta meningkatnya keyakinan sentimen ZEW Jerman dan global, masih memberikan support.

Technical Analysis:

Potensi kenaikan IHSG pada hari ini patut diwaspadai, karena pola indikator ADX dan volume di daily chart menunjukkan koreksi penurunan tidak diimbangi kenaikan dalam 2 hari terakhir, sementara Stochastic dan MACD berpotensi menunjukkan bearish divergence, dapat membatasi potensi kenaikan dalam 1-2 hari ini. Meski pola candle menunjukkan white marobozu dan rising window, dibuka diatas trendline support 1,835, seharusnya mendukung kenaikan ke target 1,903 (61.8 FE)/1,950 (50.0% Fibo retracement)/1,990 (uptrend line). Sementara support berada di 1,832 (161.8 FE)/1,785 (100.0 FE). Jika IHSG ditutup mingguan, bulanan dan kuartalan diatas target 3 bulan UBI di 1,950, target IHSG akan direvisi menjadi 2,550 (uptrend channel) di Q3 2009.
Elliot wave menunjukkan jika level 1,891 terlampaui, terjadi konfirmasi wave 5 dalam siklus wave primary C.
Resistance: 1984.81/1943.42/1929.62/1915.82. PP 1860.63
Support : 1846.83/1833.03/1805.43/1777.83
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 1,840-1,920)

Regional Berpotensi Mengalami Aksi Profit-Taking

SSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
9295 9220 9455 9120 9455 9290 9555 8750 8860 9080 9410 9520 9740
Commentary

Secara teknikal, SSIM9 berada dalam pola uptrend channel dalam formasi uptrend channel menunjukkan pola continuation bullish, meski mendapatkan signal negatif dari candle hanging man dan harga berada di atas 8955 (100.0 FE) dan 8961 (trendline support), seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan. Indikator teknikal ADX masih terkoreksi menurun, stochastic flat & MACD bullish, seharusnya masih mendukung perkiraan konsolidasi, karena volume menunjukkan penurunan disaat indeks menurun menunjukkan laju rebound terlihat lemah, meski trend jangka pendek masih bulish selama berada diatas 8,942 (trendine) target 9,320/9645 (uptrend line). Potensi penurunan terbatas di support line 20-day MA & 35-day MA di 9215/8878 di daily chart. Perkiraan range hari ini: 9200-9600.

Rekomendasi : Sell break 9080 target 8880, stop 100p, Sell 9,520 target 9350 stop 100p, buy 8880 target 9100. (+100p)

KSM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
182.75 178.1 181.25 177.1 182.0 179.7 183.0 178.8 179.7 181.2 183.6 184.5 186.5
Commentary

Secara teknikal, KSM9 masih berada dalam kondisi uptrend, karena indeks berada dalam ascending triangle, meski ditutup diatas trendline 182.10 (100.0 FE) yang menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola candle hanging man, seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan hari ini, sementara potensi penurunanpun terbatas karena kondisi teknikal stochastic dead cross, MACD bullish dan ADX kembali uptrend, seharusnya masih mendukung range trading dalam beberapa hari mendatang. Trend dapat berbalik bearish jika indeks ditutup dibawah 177.80 (trendline support) untuk target 174.50 (downtrend line), menggagalkan skenario bullish di bulan ini untuk target 186.85 (161.8 FE). Perkiraan range hari ini: 180-184.00

Rekomendasi : Sell 183.50 target 180.00 stop 100, sell break 181.00 target 178.00 stop 100p. (+50p).

HSIK9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
17476 17031 17344 16931 17500 17188 17600 17054 17152 17314 17574 17672 17834
Commentary

Secara teknikal, HSIK9 masih berada dalam trend bullish, karena indeks berada dalam uptrend channel, mendukung potensi kenaikan berkat pola candle bullish dan rising window kemarin (19/05), seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan hari ini, menunjukkan pola konsolidasi dalam pola MACD uptrend, stochastic bullish, ADX yang terkoreksi turun yang mendukung perkiraan kenaikan indeks terlihat lemah. Indeks selama ditutup dibawah resistance line di downtrend channel di 17,005, potensi kenaikan terbatas, target 16,375 (20-day MA) dan 200-day MA di 16,100 merupakan support long term. Pola bullish continuation masih valid karena indeks telah menembus 17,030 (61.8 FE), untuk target 17,550 (100.0 FE). Perkiraan range hari ini : 17200-17,600. Rekomendasi : Buy break 17,550 target 17,800 (or closing) stop 100 p. sell 17,500 target 17300, stop 60 poin. Sell break 17,150 target 16980 stop 100p. Buy 17,200 target 17,550 (+210p)

Gold Daily Technical Outlook

Written by Oil N' Gold
Comex Gold (GC)

Gold's break of 920.5 minor support suggests that an intraday top is in place at 934.8. And more importantly, it argues that rise from 880.1 has completed there after failing to take out upper channel resistance again. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for channel support at 890 first. On the upside, above 934.8 is needed to confirm upside momentum. Otherwise, short term risk now remains on the downside.

Also, note that the corrective look of the rise from 865 and the unconvincing momentum argues that it's merely a correction to fall from 1007.7. In other words, such fall is still in progress and break of 880.1 support will affirm this case. Nevertheless, we're still expecting the whole correction from 1007.7 to conclude above 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 )

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 1007.7 so far is consistent with the bullish case. That is, rise from 681 is resumption of long term up trend after triangle consolidation from 1033.9 completed at 681. Retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone should now be seen. Decisive break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. On the downside, while another fall cannot be ruled out for the moment, we'll hold on to the bullish case as long as 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) remains intact.

However, note that sustained break of 801.50 cluster support will dampen the above preferred view. This will suggest that rise from 681 is not resuming the long term up trend but is merely part of the consolidation from 1033.9. In other words, fall from 1007.7 is part of the consolidation too and could then target 681 low before completion.

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

Written by Oil N' Gold
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil's recent rally resumes by taking out 60.08 resistance and reaches as high as 60.48 so far today. Short term outlook will remain bullish as long as 56.07 support holds and further rise should now be seen targeting 55 weeks EMA (now at 67.28). On the downside, though, below 56.07 support will indicate that a short term top is at least formed and should bring deeper decline to retest lower channel support at 48.23 again.

In the bigger picture, the possible five wave structure of the rise from 33.2 and the sustained trading above 55 days EMA is consistent with the view that fall from 147.27 has completed at 33.2. Outlook will now remain bullish as long as 43.83 support holds and crude oil is set to take on next key resistance of 55 weeks EMA at 67.28 and 55 months EMA at 68.66. Upside should be limited there, at least initially. Nevertheless, in case of a strong break, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77.

Asian Stocks May Decline 4.9%, Deutsche Bank Predicts

(Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks may halt their rally this year as a recovery in earnings hasn’t caught up with gains in prices, Deutsche Bank AG said. The MSCI AC Asia excluding Japan Index may end the year at 351.5, a 4.9 percent decline from yesterday’s close, according to a report by Niklas Olausson, an analyst at Deutsche Bank. The forecast is still 46 percent higher than its earlier target.The MSCI regional index rose 2.5 percent to 378.71 as of 8:09 p.m. in Singapore, taking its gains this year to 31 percent and surpassing the 3 advance in the MSCI World Index. Asia accounts for half the 10 best-performing markets in the world this year, led by India and China.

“The rally has been largely fuelled by sentiment and liquidity drivers, in addition to expectations of a lasting recovery, rather than hard fundamental profit/return delivery,” the analyst wrote. “We are not out of the woods yet as far as a further downside risk to earnings is concerned.”

Following the gains this year, the MSCI Asian index is now valued at 18 times reported earnings, compared with its five- year average of 14 times. The measure’s price-to-book multiple has also climbed to 1.7 times, up from a low of 1 time set in October.Deutsche Bank is predicting a 22 percent increase in earnings-per-share next year, compared with a gain of 31 percent estimated by other analysts, the report said.

‘Improved Outlook’
“Equity markets have already factored in most of the improved outlook,” Olausson wrote. “Markets may overshoot in the near term, but thereafter we anticipate a period of pullback and consolidation, before markets climb up again.”Allianz SZ, Europe’s biggest insurer, said it has bought Asian equities, bonds and real estate in the past two months and would only add to its existing holdings at cheaper prices. “Where we are today, we feel the market is toppish,” Nikhil Srinivasan, who oversees $20 billion as chief investment officer for Asia and Middle East at Allianz, said in an interview in Singapore on May 18. “Valuations are about fair, it’s not cheap. The risk-reward ratio is not that attractive and investors are getting a bit tired chasing the rally.”

The Singapore-based fund manager expects Taiwan and India to outperform other Asian markets, adding it doesn’t plan to be “too aggressive” on stocks.

India
India was upgraded to “overweight” from “neutral” at Deutsche Bank, which said the election results was a “positive surprise” for the market. The brokerage yesterday raised its target for the benchmark Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index to 14,500 from an earlier estimate of 11,500.

The measure surged a record 17 percent to 14,284.21, triggering a suspension in trading after breaching its upper limit set by regulators. The Sensex added 0.1 percent to 14,302.03 today.

Indonesia and the Philippines were also raised to “overweight” from “neutral” while South Korea was upgraded to “neutral” from “underweight,” the analyst said. He added that Thailand was cut to “underweight” from “overweight” while Hong Kong was lowered to “underweight” from “neutral.” Deutsche Bank is also “turning progressively more cautious” on China as the gains this year lift valuations, Olausson wrote in the report. The brokerage retained its “overweight” rating on the market and said it expects China to outperform the rest of the region by the end of the year.

Morgan Stanley Upgrade 3 Local Bank, Russia, Indonesia Upgrade at JPMorgan

Morgan Stanley menaikkan target price (TP) atas BBCA, BBRI, dan BMRI dan tetap mempertahankan rekomendasi Overweight atas sektor perbankan terkait mencatat profitabilitas paling banyak, kapitalisasi terbaik seiring dengan persedian pencadangan dana yang berlebih, tingginya nilai cadangan untuk biaya kreditnya.

* TP BMRI naik jadi Rp3.200 dari Rp2.200 , saat ini sahamnya +1.9% ke Rp2.625
* TP BBRI naik jadi Rp6.550 dari Rp5.800, saat ini sahamnya +3.4% ke Rp6.200
* TP BBCA naik jadi Rp3.195 dari Rp2.650, saat ini sahamnya +2.2% ke Rp3.425 (dowjones/fz)

(Bloomberg) -- Russian and Indonesian stocks were upgraded at JPMorgan Chase & Co. as a recovery in the global economy and investors’ risk appetite drives further gains in emerging market equities. The brokerage downgraded China. Russia was raised to “neutral” while Indonesia was upgraded to “overweight” within JPMorgan’s global emerging- market portfolio, said analysts led by Adrian Mowat. They cut China to “neutral” after a 20 percent gain this year and lowered South Africa and Malaysia to “underweight.”JPMorgan last month said the MSCI Emerging Markets Index will rise to 900, the highest level since September, when Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s bankruptcy sparked an exodus from emerging-market assets. The measure has rallied 25 percent this year to 709.38 and developing markets make up all 10 of the best performers in 2009, with Peru, Russia and China leading gains.

“The world has turned on its head and the emerging markets are looking decidedly more sound than the developed markets,” Arjuna Mahendran, Singapore-based chief investment strategist for Asia at HSBC Private Bank, which oversees $494 billion in assets, said in a Bloomberg Television interview today. “I would buy all emerging markets going forward.”Russian stocks, previously rated “underweight” at JPMorgan, are benefiting from the government’s growth policies, a contracting risk premium and the increasing likelihood of earnings upgrades by analysts, the brokerage said in the note.

Russia, Indonesia
The RTS Index has jumped 48 percent this year, the second- best performer among the 92 global stock indexes tracked by Bloomberg. The ruble-denominated Micex Index has surged 62 percent in 2009. Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite Index has climbed 28 percent during the same period. The market was upgraded from “neutral” because of the improving commodities and currency outlook, JPMorgan wrote.Gross domestic product expanded 4.4 percent in the three months to March 31 from a year earlier as local spending accelerated, Indonesia’s statistics bureau said May 15. That’s the fastest pace in Southeast Asia.Still, JPMorgan has turned less optimistic about China, lowering its rating on the market from “overweight.” The MSCI China Index has gained 20 percent this year and this month touched the highest level since September, just before Lehman’s bankruptcy. The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks mainland- listed shares, has added 43 percent, the world’s third-largest advance.

Reallocating Capital
“As China discounts its economic recovery, we are reallocating capital to other North Asian economies that are later in the recovery phase,” the JPMorgan analysts wrote. The brokerage is also downgrading stocks in South Africa and Malaysia from a previous recommendation of “neutral,” citing the “low beta” in the two countries, which may indicate that they fluctuate less when global markets rise and fall.Templeton Asset Management Ltd.’s Mark Mobius has also predicted a rebound in emerging market shares.Stocks in developing countries may “break out” into a bull market at the end of the year as falling interest rates and easing inflation make equities more attractive, Mobius, who helps oversee $20 billion in emerging-market assets, said in a May 4 interview.

Usd/Jpy , S&P Futures Elliott Wave Analysis

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by TheLFB-Forex.com
Usd/Jpy
4 Hour Chart trend: Short. Main price points: 94.40, and 99.78. Looking for: Wave ii.

Usd/Jpy traded very close to our 94.40 support area recently, from where prices bounced at the start of the Monday's European session. We can count all the required sub-waves in blue wave i, from where we will be looking for three waves of retracement that should follow during the next few sessions. The most common correction in a second wave is a zig-zag, which may lead us into the 38.2% or 50% area of the previous wave i decline. Traders with a short bias should be looking for a turning point into a lower wave iii in that area, but will also be looking at global equity markets boucing off support; if equities move higher, this pair will do so too.

















S&P Futures
Daily Chart trend: Short. Main price points: 875, and 928.25. Looking for: Wave iv).

On S&P Futures we are back with a wave count on the four hour chart, where we will be looking for a move to the downside, so long as the 928.25 holds as resistance. Traders looking for a short move should wait on a three waves of pull-back in the current red wave 2; as wave 1) looks to be completed around the 875 area. Wave 2 usually retraces 61.8% of wave 1 distance, which means that a turning point may appear around the long-term trend-line that should act as a good resistance this week. If the 923 area breaks then we have a whole new outlook. Wait and see, be patient, and watch the reaction to the news that Libor rates are tumbling lower; that could reverse this set-up, just let it test the long side before deciding.

Daily Technical Analysis Forex & Gold

Daily Forex Technicals
EURUSD
Comment: Bouncing ahead of the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the most recent rally and closing above the 9-day moving average. This is seen as part of the process of re-grouping this week for another re-test of increasingly important resistance around 1.3700. Note that above here there are no really strong resistance levels until the 1.4200 area. Strategy: Buy at 1.3555, adding to 1.3465; stop below 1.3400. Short term target 1.3700, then a lot more.Direction of Trade: →↗
Support Resistance
1.3531 " 1.358
1.3461 1.36
1.3422/1.3400* 1.365
1.33 1.3722/1.3739**
1.3245 1.38
GBPUSD
Comment: The strongest daily close since mid-December as the 9-day moving average helps Cable up half a notch. This adds weight to our view that we are setting up for an important break higher after trading between 1.3500 and 1.5500 since mid-November.
Strategy: Buy at 1.5335, adding to 1.5150; stop well below 1.5000. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.5375 for 1.5500 short term and then 1.5725/1.5800 Direction of Trade: →↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.5293 " 1.5354/1.5375*
1.5116 1.54
1.5059 1.5535
1.4942 1.56
1.48 1.5725
USDJPY
Comment: Bouncing from the bottom of the Ichimoku 'cloud', retracing 38% of the most recent drop. Now watch for signs of topping, probably between 96.65 and 97.25. Then back down to re-test the bottom of the 'cloud'. Strategy: Sell 96.45; stop above 98.00. Add to shorts below 94.50 for 93.55.Direction of Trade: →
Support Resistance
96.11/96.00 " 96.46
95.65 96.63
95 97.25
94.55* 97.5
93.55* 97.85*
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
Rupee: Rupee witnessed a historic 3.1% rise yesterday breaking past the support of 48.80 to test 47.76. Rupee met our yesterday's target of 47.60 and is set to head towards 47.20 on Tuesday. The bias continues to be in favour of the local unit as more FIIs are expected to flow in indian market. (USD/INR : 47.51). Bullish.
Euro: Euro gained support from the 21 Daily EMA around 1.3422 and surged 140 pips higher. The 4-hourly and hourly charts are reaching overbought, thus retracement upto 1.35 and then to 1.3420 could be expected. Buying at dips is suggested. Alternatively, with the charts getting overbought selling around 1.37 levels also could be considered for 80-100 pips. (Eur/Usd:1.3561). Short Term Bullish.
Pound: Cable took support close to 1.5115 levels and surged more than 200 pips, giving us money on the long positions done yesterday. The hourly and 4-hourly stochastic is getting overbought with resistance around 1.5440. Opportunities to initiate cautious shorts around 1.5380 - 1.54 levels for 100-120 pips could be considered. (Gbp/Usd: 1.5330). Neutral
Yen: The Usd/Jpy pair rose to the highs of 96.45 yesterday. The 4-hourly charts are over-bought and crucial resistance comes in around 96.90 levels. Going short in the pair around these levels can be considered for intraday 80 pips gain. BEARISH (Usd/Jpy: 96.46).
Australian Dollar: Aussie rose yesterday from 0.7450 to test 0.7687 on the back of weak US dollar. The hourly and 4-hourly charts are overbought while the daily chart has become neutral. Weekly cluster resistance comes at 0.7780 where shorts could be initiated for 80-100 pips. (Aud/Usd: 0.7665)
Gold: Gold shed some of its shine yesterday as it fell from $933 to $915. Crucial support comes in at $910 (21 daily & 100 4-hourly EMA). A range-bound session can be expected as far as $910 is held where cautious longs can be considerd. Range-bound. (Gold- 921.42)
Dollar Index: DX fell below 83 levels as expected with the stochastic indicating further selling bias. USD remains weak as far as DX holds below 84. Range-Bound (DI- 82.64).
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by ecPulse.com
EURO
The Euro versus Dollar pair inclined to reach our expected targets at 1.3585 as it is currently attempting to close above this resistance level and we are waiting for the next four hour closing above 1.3585 to confirm the upside movements on the intraday basis supported by the short term trend. Our next targets are at 1.3720 and 1.3850 as far as 1.3255 is intact. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3250 and the key resistance at 1.3850The general trend is to the downside as far s 1.4710 remains intact with targets at 1.2120
Support: 1.3480, 1.3440, 1.3345, 1.3320, 1.3255
Resistance: 1.3585, 1.3640, 1.3665, 1.3720, 1.3775
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.3585 with targets at 1.3720 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.3480
GBP
The Cable was able to gradually incline yesterday as it reached our intraday target at 1.5325 after touching the new resistance several times (the previously broken support as seen in the image above). Trading remains below this level (currently at 1.5360) where we expect to witness volatile movements due to the negative pressure seen on momentum indicators yet the intraday trend remains to the upside to breach this level and continue the short term upside trend to reach our initial targets at 1.5750 and 1.6000 as far as 1.5175 remains intact for today. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.4840 and the key resistance at 1.5610
The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4840 remains intact with targets at 1.6600. Support: 1.5265, 1.5235, 1.5175, 1.5125, 1.5070
Resistance: 1.5360, 1.5380, 1.5460, 1.5505, 1.5540
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.5360 with targets at 1.5505 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.5235
JPY
The USD/JPY continued to recover losses yesterday after touching the pivotal resistance level at 96.60 (which shifted currently to 96.70) after reversing slightly to the downside. WE still hold our outlook to the downside on the short term as far as the above mentioned resistance is intact for today reaching 95.35 where a break of this level will open the way towards 93.50 and 92.40
The trading range for today is among the key support at 92.40 and the key resistance at 98.50. The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60
Support: 95.80, 95.35, 94.60, 93.95, 93.50
Resistance: 96.70, 97.30, 97.65, 98.10, 98.85
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 96.70 with targets at 95.35 and stop loss with four hour closing above 97.65
CHF
The Dollar versus Swissy declined as expected as it trades within a downside channel nearing our suggested target at 1.1125. Our outlook remains to the downside with targets at 1.0745 and 1.0570 yet we may witness an upside correction towards 1.1200 in an attempt to gather bearish momentum. These downside movements remain as far as 1.1425 is intact. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0745 and the key resistance at 1.1425. The general trend is to the upside as far as 10.570 remains intact with targets at 1.2245
Support: 1.1125, 1.1090, 1.1035, 1.0970, 1.0920
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1250, 1.1315, 1.1355, 1.1425
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.1200 with targets at 1.1125 and 1.1035 and stop loss with four hour closing above 1.1315.