Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's decline from 992.1 resumed last week after brief consolidation. Initial bias remains on the downside and further decline should be seen towards 915.2 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 865.6 to 922.1 at 913.9). Break there will confirm that whole rise from 865 has completed and should then bring retest of this low. On the upside, though, above 963.9 will indicate that fall from 992.1 has completed and will turn short term outlook bullish for 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone again.
In the bigger picture, recent development argues that rise from 865 has possibly completed at 992.1 already, ahead of 1007.7/1033.9 key resistance zone. Also it suggests that consolidation from 1007.7 is still in progress and break of 915.2 support will bring the third leg down to test 865 support before completing the whole consolidation. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) and bring resumption of rise from 681. On the upside, though, above 992.1 will revive the case that rise from 865 is resumption of up trend rather than part of sideway consolidation. In such case, retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance should be seen next.
In the long term picture, medium term consolidation from 1033.9 should have completed as an expanding triangle to 681 already. Rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 253 and will target 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 after taking out 1033.9 high. However, a break below mentioned 801.5 cluster support will argue that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will delay the long term bullish case.
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