Crude oil's consolidation from 60.08 continues today. With a short term top in place, further pull back could still be seen. Nevertheless, recent rise is still in favor to resume as long as 51.89/95 cluster support holds (50% retracement of 43.83 to 60.08 at 51.95). Firm break of 60.12 fibo resistance will target 55 weeks EMA (now at 67.96). However, note that break of 51.89/95 support will serve as the first alert that whole rally from 33.2 has completed and will turn focus to 43.83 for confirmation.
In the bigger picture, the possible five wave structure of the rise from 33.2 and the sustained trading above 55 days EMA is consistent with the view that fall from 147.27 has completed at 33.2. Outlook will now remain bullish as long as 43.83 support holds and crude oil is set to take on next key resistance of 55 weeks EMA at 67.96 and 55 months EMA at 68.74. The development in the next few weeks will be important in determining if the trend in crude oil has reversed or not. In particular, focus will be on the upper channel resistance (now at 64 level) and the mentioned EMA resistance. Strong break there will argue that rise from 33.2 is "accelerating" and thus indicate that it's developing into up trend of a larger scale. However, bounce off from these levels, followed by break of 43.83, will indeed indicate that rise fro 33.2 is merely a correction in the larger down trend only.
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