Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's fall from 73.23 extended to as low as 66.25 last week but rebounded strongly. Nevertheless, such rebound was limited at 71.29, below 72.55 resistance and crude oil weakened towards the end of the week. With an intraday top in place, initial outlook is neutral this week. But after all, note that with 72.55 resistance intact, correction from 73.23 is still in favor to continue. Below 68.04 minor support will flip intraday back to the downside. Further break of 66.25 low will target 38.2% retracement of 45.44 to 73.23 at 62.61 next.
In the bigger picture, daily MACD's break of its up trend line provides another signal that rise from 33.20 has completed. But after all, there is no confirmation yet. As long as rising channel support holds (now at 58.08) the medium term rise from 33.2 is still in favor to continue. Break of 72.55 resistance will be an early sign that such up trend is resuming for 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next. However, firm break of the channel will be an important sign that whole rise from 33.2 has finished and will turn focus to 45.44/54.66 support zone for confirmation.
In the long term picture, note that fall from 147.27 is treated as a correction, or part of the correction/consolidation to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. Downside target of 17.12/37.0 support zone is already met and the correction might have completed already. Sustained trading above mentioned 55 weeks and 55 months EMA, which crude oil has not yet accomplished yet, will add some credence to this case and should target next key level of 90, (50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.23). This will remain the preferred case as long as crude oil continues to stay above 54.66 support. On the downside, firm break of 45.44/54.66 support zone will indicate that rebound from 33.2 is possibly merely part of a larger scale correction which should bring another a new low below 33.2 before completion.
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